1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: This is the Late Mail Podcast with your host JJ 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: Zachertha JJ zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar 3 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: Esen in this episode ten ninety one of the Late 4 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:21,599 Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting 5 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: the mailbag questions, I want to send the reminder for 6 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: you to check out the Late Round Prospect Guide. It's 7 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy pages of analytical information about this 8 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: class and it includes information on second year players as well, 9 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: all for nineteen ninety nine. If you purchase now, you'll 10 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: also get the post draft version of the guide emailed 11 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: to you just hours after the NFL Draft is over. 12 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: So check it all out lateround dot com. Okay, let's 13 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: get to these mailbag questions. The first question this week 14 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: is from Patrick on Patreon. It says, what's the biggest 15 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: miss in the ZAP model database and what is the takeaway? 16 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: So I get this question a lot, and I do 17 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: think my answer in the last mail back about publishing 18 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: the database publishing historical scores, it kind of goes back 19 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: to this question being asked so frequently. And I'm not 20 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: saying that you're guilty of this, Patrick, but there is 21 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: this fixation on finding these individual instances where something was wrong. 22 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest with you, guys. The ZAP model 23 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 1: has gotten tons of things wrong. But the NFL has 24 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: two teams get this stuff wrong all the time in 25 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: the NFL draft. It's no different for me when it 26 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: comes to prospecting and when it comes to the ZAP model, 27 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: I get stuff wrong all the time. I don't know 28 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: exactly how to answer this one though, just to be honest, 29 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,639 Speaker 1: because I'm not sure exactly how to measure biggest miss. 30 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: It's all relative to expectation. Like the current model has 31 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: Jalen Polk with a negative draft capital delta, and that's 32 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: good because it means that the model likes Polk less 33 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: than the NFL did or where he was actually drafted. 34 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: But it's not like the model said, run for the hills. 35 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: Jalen Polk is gonna be one of the biggest bussy 36 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: you'll ever see a wide receiver. So is that a 37 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: winner or a loss? Is it a huge miss because 38 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: the model didn't get the exact outcome. I think there 39 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: have been guys who have come out in recent history, 40 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: and I want to keep this to recent history just 41 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: to make the content more engaging for you guys, But 42 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: there have been players in recent history who I've just 43 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: completely whipped on. You can see that in the Prospect 44 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: Guide each year. Bucky Irving. I did not expect Bucky 45 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: Irving to be as good as he's been. Now. I've 46 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: made some model changes and some iterations over the last 47 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: couple of years, and he does look better than he 48 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,839 Speaker 1: did coming out a couple of years ago. But where 49 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: my process has also changed is more on the subjective side, 50 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: not even talking film watching here, but with the analysis 51 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: that I do that isn't ZAP model focused. I've leaned 52 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: more on the advanced metrics in my writeups and in 53 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: my analysis that I didn't have as much access to 54 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: even just a couple of years ago, and some of 55 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 1: those advanced numbers definitely paint a more favorable picture for 56 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: a player like Irving, and hopefully I would have caught 57 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: that this time around if another player exactly like Bucky 58 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 1: Irving were to come out. A good example of that 59 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 1: is with Zachariah Branch this year. Technically, the ZA model 60 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: doesn't like despise Branch. I wouldn't say it likes him. 61 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: He has a negative draft capital delta, but it's not 62 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: so horribly negative that he'd be an obvious avoid when 63 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: you only look at the model's inputs. But a lot 64 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: of the advanced data paints a scary, scary picture, which 65 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: is what the analysis shows in the prospect guide itself. 66 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: And now I know a lot of people are probably thinking, 67 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: then why don't you just include that data in the model? 68 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: And the reason I don't is because modeling isn't about 69 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: throwing as many data points together in an attempt to 70 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: find the best answers. That usually creates a lot of issues. 71 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: You're double counting things, you're overfitting, it can get messy. 72 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: Usually the best models they're relatively simple when it comes 73 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: to the inputs that they're dealing with. Second, a lot 74 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: of the data that people use just doesn't go back 75 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: far enough so you can't reliably trust it, at least 76 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: very easily in a model if you're looking to test 77 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: it properly. And I'm not even getting into the issue 78 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: of proprietary data, which isn't something that we need to 79 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: talk about on today's show. But back to the question, 80 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 1: I think for a player like Irving, it's about understanding 81 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: what the model says and then looking beyond those inputs. 82 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: If any of you guys read one of the original 83 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: late Round Prospect guides when I first launched this business, 84 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: the analysis in those are like night and day compared 85 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: to what I'm doing now. Just objectively, I don't want 86 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: to say the old guides were horrible analysis, but I've 87 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 1: learned a lot over the last five years, and I 88 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:31,160 Speaker 1: try to get better every year that I do this now. 89 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: As for some other misses, Rashi Rice was a recent miss. 90 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 1: I couldn't boost him simply because of landing spot, and 91 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 1: I don't think that was necessarily wrong. We've seen Kansas 92 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 1: city wide receivers fail pretty frequently in this Mahomes era. 93 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: I do think Rice could have been another case of 94 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 1: leaning in more on the advanced metrics though, But like 95 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: he had a thirty one percent slot rate in college, 96 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: his wide yards per route run was pretty average for 97 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: a wide out in that database. His yards after the 98 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: catch profile that was great, and I think it ultimately 99 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: mattered a ton for Rashi Rice. It's just hard to 100 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,919 Speaker 1: know exactly how a team might deploy a player like Rice. 101 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,919 Speaker 1: Just last year, the model didn't mind Caleb Johnson. I 102 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: wasn't quite as bullish as the model was, and then 103 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: we're fantasy managers who really liked him. But it's a big, 104 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: big model miss. Even with some of the fixes that 105 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: were made to the model this offseason, he still has 106 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 1: a pretty good ZAP score. Maybe the low explosive run rate, 107 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 1: the kind of more middling combine, maybe those things should 108 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: have been reasons to col off of Caleb Johnson, But 109 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: I don't know. I think with prospecting work, oftentimes we 110 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: see a miss like this and we overstate what it 111 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: actually all means. We take it so far and we 112 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: live or die by that one player. That's just not 113 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 1: how I view this stuff, or how I think anyone 114 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 1: should view this stuff. One player shouldn't change your approach 115 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: to prospecting or how you should model things. It shouldn't 116 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: make you completely change your process. We have no idea 117 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 1: what's going on behind the scenes, how these players are 118 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: off the field, what kind of work ethic they have. 119 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 1: Usually that all comes out in age justine, production and 120 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 1: other predictive analytics, but that's never a given. Again. NFL 121 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: teams are missing on these guys all the time. And 122 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: they're not nerds living in their mom's basement like I am. 123 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: They're spending millions of dollars on this stuff. But those 124 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: are just a few of the names that came to 125 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 1: mind when I saw this question. I know there are 126 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 1: plenty more, and I'm sure some of you are screaming, 127 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: what about this guy that you missed on? But I 128 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: think those three players sort of capture my process and 129 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: how I've evolved pretty well. Just remember, there's gonna be 130 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: a lot of misses. That's how it goes with prospecting. 131 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 1: This next one's from John on Patreon. I shortened it 132 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 1: a little bit for podcast purposes. It says, JJ, what 133 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: does the optimal preparation schedule look like? This would be 134 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: for a redraft league? For reference, I usually spend time 135 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: on the following in the summer leading up to the draft, 136 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: ADP rankings, and subsequent updates. Positional tiers, strategies for both 137 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: the overall draft in each position. Your draft guide is 138 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: extremely helpful. Pick specific strategies, i e. Pick number one 139 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: versus seven, et cetera, intel gathering, big board review my 140 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: previous year's process. So John is asking this because he 141 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: says he wants to take his game to the next level, 142 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: that he's always knocking on the door. But he doesn't 143 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: want to leave any stone unturned. He says, I think 144 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,239 Speaker 1: what you're doing is more than what ninety nine percent 145 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: of fantasy managers are doing. It doesn't guarantee success, but 146 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: you're positioning yourself really well against your competition. It's kind 147 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: of weird and counterintuitive, but I think the next step 148 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: here is to be less strict. I see this with 149 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: a lot of people. They have all these tools, they've 150 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: consumed all this content, they have this big board, but 151 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: when the draft comes, they become overwhelmed because they have 152 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: the tools, but they have been thought enough about how 153 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: they actually are going to use those tools. This is 154 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: why I talk so much about embracing variants and being 155 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: reacted in the draft guide each year. The truth is, 156 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: any fantasy manager can gather a whole bunch of information. 157 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: It's the application of that information that actually matters. And 158 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: the application can come in the form of just knowing ball. 159 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong. You could just know ball and 160 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: you can do better than your competition to some degree. 161 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: But this is a game against other humans. There's a 162 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: psychology component to it. There's a huge market component to it, 163 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: which means having the information isn't always enough. To elevate 164 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: your game, You've got to think about how other drafters 165 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: are gonna think how they might draft, and you need 166 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: to be more reactive. Fantasy football drafts are about being 167 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: nimble and about being able to react to new information 168 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: on the fly. Like I said, people will often be 169 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: super strict with their rankings, but when they do that, 170 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 1: they get stuck when they're on the clock and the 171 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: plan shifts just even a little bit. It's like watching 172 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: Jared goffplay unbelievably great when things are working well, but 173 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: when that rhythm gets interrupted, we can sometimes see some 174 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 1: really bad quarterback play. You want to be like Josh Allen. 175 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: When things break down, you can still make something big happen. 176 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: And the way you do that is by understanding the 177 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: various outcomes and the way that things can go down, 178 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: and you can usually do that by just getting reps. 179 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 1: Bestball is not the same game as season long fantasy 180 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,959 Speaker 1: football from a managed perspective, but it teaches you how 181 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: to be nimble in those situations. People will snipe you 182 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: left and right. You've got to have a plan almost 183 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: immediately when that happens. You can't just sit back with 184 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 1: the same plan no matter what you really have to 185 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,599 Speaker 1: open your mind to coming up with your own strategies. 186 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: At times. Yes, certain strategies they're going to be better 187 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: than others, but there are many many ways to win 188 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: at fantasy football. You can have a predetermined strategy going 189 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 1: into a draft, but I would say that you should 190 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: just have an understanding of all strategies. That way, when 191 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: your initial one doesn't work, it makes it a lot 192 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: easier to pivot to another one. So I would almost 193 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,839 Speaker 1: tell people to not be so so detailed and so 194 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 1: specific to one or two outcomes, because when you get 195 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: to that point where you've got all this information, you 196 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 1: sometimes start missing the more important parts of being a 197 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: good drafter, which is being able to change your approach 198 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: on the fly when things start to go south. Your 199 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: preparation is fine. What you said in this question, it's fine, John, 200 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: You're doing great. I would just say it needs to 201 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 1: be expanded. Rather than only looking at your specific spot 202 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: in a draft or your specific strategy that you want 203 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: to use, think about as many as you can. That way, 204 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: you can pivot, and trust me, more often than not, 205 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:42,719 Speaker 1: you probably will want to pivot. This last question is 206 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,439 Speaker 1: from Matt on Patreon. It says it looks like Carnel 207 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: Tate is the odds on favorite to be the first 208 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: wide receiver selected in the draft. How much does the 209 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: hit rate for receiver increase with a top ten selection? 210 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: Would his prospects score potentially increase above say Tyson's if 211 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: Tyson was selected in the of the first round. So 212 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:03,599 Speaker 1: this is sort of why I did that episode on 213 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: the Truth about Draft capital back in early March, basically 214 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 1: showing that draft capital matters, but there are parts of 215 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: the draft where it matters a lot less than people 216 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: generally think. Expanding on that using arbitrary thresholds. It's good 217 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: for content delivery, it's good for communicating ideas, but it's 218 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: not something that we need to strictly apply, as in, 219 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: if Carnel Tait is the tenth overall pick versus the 220 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: eleventh overall pick, his outlook does not meaningfully change. And 221 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: what gets people in trouble and I'm guilty of this 222 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: at times too, because I'm human, But what gets people 223 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 1: into trouble is the arbitrary threshold analysis that we do, 224 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,719 Speaker 1: where we say, here's a look at all top ten 225 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: wide receivers and their hit rates. But let's say that 226 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 1: Tait goes ninth overall. Technically, a player who gets drafted 227 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: eleventh overall has more similar draft capital to Tate than 228 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: someone who goes third overall, But the third overall player 229 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: is now part of our comparison sample, the eleventh overall 230 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: player isn't. So just to be clear, I wouldn't be 231 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: thinking of top ten or not top ten or anything 232 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 1: like that. I know I speak that way at times, 233 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: but that's just for me to communicate certain ideas. Everything 234 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 1: lives more in this gray area where one spot to 235 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 1: the next you're losing a little bit of that overall 236 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: prospect score. Going from tenth to eleventh to twelfth and 237 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 1: so on, you lose a little bit. The drop offs 238 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: aren't necessarily linear, they're not consistent, but there are dropoffs. 239 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: I think the question here really comes down to, if 240 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 1: Carnel Tate has X draft capital, what type of capital 241 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: would it take for Jordan Tyson to not be ranked 242 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,679 Speaker 1: ahead of Tait and as that model because right now 243 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: the model just really loves Jordan Tyson. I have these 244 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 1: guys ranked in the same tier because there's at least 245 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: some things in the model can't fully comprehend about Tyson, 246 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: but objectively Jordan Tyson is the best age adjusted production 247 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: profile on a per game basis in this class. I 248 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 1: don't really think it's that close. Now. In the pre 249 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: draft version of the Prospect Guide, draft capital assumptions are 250 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: being made via NFL Mock Draft database, and when that 251 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: guide launched, Tate had projected ninth overall draft capital. Tyson 252 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: was at fourteen. Right now, according to that same site, 253 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: Tate is now at eight. Tyson he's still at fourteen. 254 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: Let's say that Tate goes eighth overall. That gives him 255 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: a very good ZAP score of eighty five. That's a 256 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,439 Speaker 1: very good score for Tyson. To have a score under 257 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: eighty five, he basically need to go into round two. 258 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: This is the same problem that we ran into last 259 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: year with Luther Burden and Tedoroe McMillan and probably Travis 260 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: Hunter two because the model was a little bit scared 261 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 1: of Hunter. The model right now loves Luther Burden. He 262 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 1: had incredible age adjusted production in college. Now, I don't 263 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: think it's necessary to rank Burden ahead of t Mac 264 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: and I didn't do that last year. But I think 265 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: it's a signal of two things. Number One, it speaks 266 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: to the idea that I talked about in that Draft 267 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: Capital episode. Draft capital matters, but don't overstated, especially a 268 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: wide receiver. We get first round busts at wide receiver 269 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: all the time, even in the top half of the 270 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 1: first round. The model's intent is to properly weigh draft 271 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 1: capital for you, and then number two, the model is 272 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: just a guide. It's merely telling you that Jordan Tyson 273 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: is a really good prospect analytically, when I test the model, 274 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: those tests aren't gonna sit there and say, oh, well, 275 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson was two points above Carnell Tait and prospect score, 276 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: So if Tate outscores Tyson, this is a big miss 277 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: that will really ruin the predictedness of the model. It's 278 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: essentially just saying that their outlooks are similar despite that 279 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: draft capital difference. And I think more subjectively, if you 280 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: want to play it safe and if you don't want 281 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: to force the issue, you can then just draft Carnel 282 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: Tit over Jordan Tyson in your dynasty leagues, especially in 283 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: this hypothetical situation where Carnell Tate is a top ten 284 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: guy and Jordan Tyson goes in round two, which, by 285 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: the way, I don't think that's gonna happen. I would 286 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: be shocked at George Tyson is not the wide receiver 287 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: one in the ZAP model post draft because he has 288 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: such an insane age adjusted production profile and the model 289 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: really cares about breakout score. But this is why I 290 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 1: had them in the same tier in my rankings, because 291 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: there are concerns about Tyson and his health and that 292 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: could lead the worst draft capital, which leads to a 293 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: little bit more variance to his overall profile. We saw 294 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: the exact same thing with Luther Burden last year. When 295 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: you're spending an early first round rookie pick, there's natural 296 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: comfort and going with the guy who had a really 297 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: strong draft capital. There's nothing wrong with that, but that 298 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 1: at least gives you the answer of what the model 299 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 1: we'll see we should be caring about the big gaps 300 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: from one score to the next, and if you aren't 301 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: quite sure if there's a big gap or not, or 302 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: how to interpret that, that's exactly why I have the 303 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: blurbs for each player in that guide to explain things, 304 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: to talk through it, and to get us hopefully the 305 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 1: best answer that we can get to. The last question 306 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: this week is from Twitters from at they're in one, two, one, four, 307 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 1: three two. It says, why is the analytics community, who 308 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: have always leaned heavily towards zero RB principles now recommending 309 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: more fragile, robust running back builds so far this draft season? 310 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: Is that specifically a best ball thing? If so, why 311 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 1: why the seemingly sudden shift. It's alarming. Now. Look, I 312 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: can't speak for other analysts, and I certainly can't speak 313 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: for other analysts who have hyper focused on zero RB 314 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: because that hasn't been what I've done. That's not how 315 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: I do things. But I can at least talk about 316 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 1: why I think you might be seeing what you're seeing. First, 317 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: from a football perspective, I talked about this in a 318 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: lot more detail on episode ten to seventy five, the 319 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: first one of the off season, titled the Death of 320 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 1: the Fantasy Football Wide Receiver two. In that episode, I 321 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: spoke about two big things happening in the NFL. Teams 322 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: are more run heavy, and that's likely as a result 323 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: of countering the speedy, smaller defenses and two high defensive alignments. 324 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: And then on top of that, we're seeing heavier personnel. 325 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: It's been a trend in the last few years. This 326 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: past year, though, was really a big outlier. There was 327 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: a big shift. A lot more teams are using heavier personnel. 328 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 1: When that's the case, we get different competition for targets 329 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: in an offense. Teams are targeting tight ends more because 330 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,919 Speaker 1: they're on the field more, and teams are using their 331 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: running backs more on the ground and not as much 332 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: through the air. This has resulted, though, in a lot 333 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: of flatness at the wide receiver position. When you get 334 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 1: a stud like JSN doing what he did last year, 335 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 1: that's a huge advantage in fantasy football. But from a 336 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: game theory and a draft standpoint, we don't have fifteen 337 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and jigbas at least when we're forecasting. There 338 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 1: aren't that many wide receivers that we can look at 339 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: as locked in obvious studs, and even the ones that 340 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 1: we can lock in, it's no guarantee. Now, you could 341 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 1: definitely argue that this means that we should be drafting 342 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: wide receivers early and often in fantasy football. If we 343 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,040 Speaker 1: only have a few of these wide receivers, they be 344 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: come even more valuable versus the rest of the position. 345 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 1: They're unicorns. And I agree with that. In theory, But 346 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: if you're in a twelve team league and there are 347 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: six of those wide receivers, you shouldn't just take the 348 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: position just to take the position. They dry up really fast. 349 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: And to be clear, I don't think it's only the 350 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 1: shift to heavier personnel that's doing this. There's been an 351 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 1: influx of talent too. We have a lot of good 352 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 1: wide receivers in the league, which means there's a lot 353 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,120 Speaker 1: more competition, which makes it difficult for receivers to truly 354 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 1: stand out and to see those like twenty eight twenty 355 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 1: nine percent target chairs unless they're uber elite talents and 356 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 1: good to great situations. So essentially we have some elite 357 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: tier at wide receiver and then a bunch of flatness. 358 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 1: You can just look at consensus rankings right now in 359 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six and see this. You get Tteroro McMillan 360 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: and T Higgins and AJ Brown in that wide receiver 361 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 1: thirteen to fifteen range. They're not even necessarily unfairly ranked. 362 00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: But then you get the Lad McConkie and Luther Burden 363 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 1: and DeVante Smith and Amecca Abuca and that wide receiver 364 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: twenty two to wide receiver twenty seven range the delta 365 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 1: in ceiling projection, which I'd argue is what we should 366 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: be far more focused on. But the ceiling projection for 367 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,959 Speaker 1: a lot of those players is not so significantly different, 368 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: whereas you're going to eventually hit a bigger wall at 369 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 1: running back, and all of that is just becoming more 370 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 1: obvious to people. If you go back and you read 371 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: any of the draft guides that I put together, I 372 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: say the same thing every year. Running back still rules 373 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: the fantasy football world. If you have one of the 374 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: elite running backs, you have the biggest edge in fantasy football. 375 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: And usually the way to get those players is by 376 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: spending up. And right now we have even more incentive 377 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: to do that because wide receiver becomes flat very quickly. 378 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: So that's the football angle. Let's look at this from 379 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: a game type perspective. I think strictly with Best Ball, 380 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: there were a lot of claims made about what strategy 381 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,360 Speaker 1: works and what strategy doesn't before we really had enough 382 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: data to make those claims. I've done becoming a Best 383 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: Ball bro for two seasons now. Season one I didn't 384 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: do very well, and I talked about this on the show, 385 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: but I think a key reason for that was because 386 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: I was far too strict and going with specific strategies. 387 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: I didn't feel my player picks were that bad, but 388 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 1: the team construction, the lack of nuance that I approached 389 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: that best ball season with that was very wrong. I 390 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,360 Speaker 1: changed that up last year. I had a wider variety 391 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,199 Speaker 1: of builds and the results were great. I ended up 392 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 1: getting a top fifty finish in the DraftKings Millie and 393 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:34,159 Speaker 1: I also had a great advance rate. Now and managed 394 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: season long leagues. The approach in general doesn't dramatically change 395 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: year to year. There are definitely instances where we like 396 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: the running back player poll one year more than another year, 397 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: and that might force you to go maybe more zero 398 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 1: RB one year than you do another season. But most 399 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 1: of the change is relatively gradual. The season long game, 400 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,199 Speaker 1: it's been around for a long time. Like if you 401 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: think about my strategic takes that I've had on this 402 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: podcast through the years, like one year it's draft quarterbacks late, 403 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:06,400 Speaker 1: and in the next year it's draft quarterbacks early. It's gradual. 404 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: You can see some of these things coming. I always 405 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: reference this. But my absolute favorite advice that I've ever given, 406 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 1: what I think was the best thinking that I ever 407 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: did in my career from an analyst perspective, was after 408 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson's first MVP season. I was very in on Jackson, sure, 409 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 1: but the greater picture was what was to come after 410 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: that season. I wrote an article on Number five about it, 411 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 1: talking about how we were on the verge of seeing 412 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: more unicorn quarterbacks in the league and that the late 413 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: round quarterback strategy could be morphing because the consensus fantasy 414 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 1: football world was recognizing the importance of rushing. In other words, 415 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: finding the obvious late round quarterback wouldn't be as easy. 416 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 1: People saw what Lamar Jackson did and they wanted more 417 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: of that. So each year we did get like a 418 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: Josh Allen emergence, a Jalen Hurts emergence. It would still happen, 419 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,479 Speaker 1: but it wasn't as frequent as previous seasons, and we 420 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: were getting more and more of those players. The ADPs 421 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 1: of these mobile quarterbacks started to rise, and I'm unbelievably 422 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 1: proud of being ahead of that trend because that trend 423 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: quite literally shook my brand. I created all of this, 424 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: this podcast, this business. It all stems from my original 425 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: ebook in twenty twelve called the Late Round Quarterback and 426 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: I was willing to say, hey, that's not exactly right anymore. 427 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 1: And nothing frustrates me more than when I go on 428 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 1: podcasts and they say this guy only drafts quarterbacks late. 429 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 1: If you've been listening to my content since twenty twenty, 430 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,679 Speaker 1: that's not the case. There are many instances where you 431 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 1: shouldn't be going late round quarterback. But all of this 432 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: didn't happen overnight. It happens gradually, which is what we're 433 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: seeing in today's game too with this heavier personnel stuff. 434 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 1: But best Ball is different. It's a game that's not 435 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: been around as long, so we're bound to see more 436 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: extreme variation in the way that people are approaching the 437 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: game year in and year out. And that's why I 438 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: think you might be seeing the best Ball and gals 439 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: talk about not going zero RB as much or whatever 440 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: the case may be. They're realizing they were probably too 441 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 1: strict with that approach, that it wasn't the best and 442 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 1: only way, and that best Ball is just a different 443 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 1: beast where there's still a lot to be learned. But 444 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 1: that's it for today's show, though thanks to all of 445 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 1: you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late 446 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football podcast. Make sure you are bestwarching for 447 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow 448 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 1: me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. 449 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening everyone. I'm actually gonna be out next week, 450 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: but you're still gonna get an early week podcast and 451 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 1: then an episode of Late Round Perspectives, so definitely tune 452 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 1: into those. Otherwise, thanks for listening. I hope you have 453 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:48,400 Speaker 1: a great weekend.