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Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree?

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Speaker 3: Great?

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Speaker 1: Five dollars. This is a regular level howboy tackled kite.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life.

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Speaker 2: Bearable, humans need fantasy to be human.

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Speaker 3: My goodness helps good.

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Speaker 1: I suppose the best, relentless, refusing to give up. All right,

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Speaker 1: hit that horn, Bayless.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Chris.

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Speaker 2: Raybond, joined as always by my guy Sean Kerner, and

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Speaker 2: today is our annual props episode. We're gonna talk all

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Speaker 2: about player props. Sean excited for this one, right, Yes,

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Speaker 2: Like I said, every year, this is my favorite offseason pod.

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Speaker 2: Can't wait to talk about some player props. Oah, So

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Speaker 2: we're gonna We're gonna each We're gonna go through. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna start with quarterback props, then go through running back

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Speaker 2: props that we like, then wide receiver tight end props

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Speaker 2: to close it out.

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Speaker 3: So we'll have a bunch of these.

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Speaker 2: And this podcast sponsored by Prize Picks, so we will

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Speaker 2: use the Prize Picks lines. All right, Sean, start us off.

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Speaker 2: Give me a prop you like for QB.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going with Jamis Winston under forty two hundred

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Speaker 1: passing yards, and I'll throw on the under twenty three

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Speaker 1: and a half passing touchdowns as well. I think that,

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Speaker 1: you know, when it comes to Jamis Winston, he has

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Speaker 1: a wide, wide range of outcomes this year. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he could end up playing all seventeen games, have a

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Speaker 1: career year and just fly over these totals, right, But

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Speaker 1: he also has a really low floor, so I think

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Speaker 1: his medium should be much much lower. You know, he's

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Speaker 1: been announced as the Week one starter, we know that,

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Speaker 1: but even though he's starting, I mean, Taysom Hill's still

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Speaker 1: going to be involved in the offense, especially around the

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Speaker 1: goal line. Like I think that's one of the reasons

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Speaker 1: why I like he's under on his passing touchdowns as well.

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Speaker 1: But you know, any given week, I think Taysom Hill

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Speaker 1: could take over this offense. And even if Winston were

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Speaker 1: to start, you know, ten plus games, he doesn't have

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Speaker 1: the greatest wide receiver depth chart or even tight end

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Speaker 1: depth chart. Now that am Trotman's hurt, so I think

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Speaker 1: Winston has an uphill battle to clear these numbers. So

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Speaker 1: you know, I would set this line maybe closer to

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Speaker 1: thirty eight hundred passing yards and maybe twenty one and

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Speaker 1: a half passing touchdowns just a factor in, you know,

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Speaker 1: the extreme floor that Winston has, So I love the

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Speaker 1: under for both of these.

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Speaker 2: How many starts are you projecting Jameis Winston to make

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Speaker 2: as opposed to Taysom Hill this year?

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Speaker 1: So I have I mean, Taysom Hill is gonna technically

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Speaker 1: play in seventeen games. That's that's why he's kind of

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Speaker 1: tricky to project, but I have Winston projected to start

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Speaker 1: thirteen games. But it's it's one of those projections where

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Speaker 1: how can you feel good about it one way or

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Speaker 1: the other. So it's kind of where I've just settled

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Speaker 1: and at that projection, I haven't at thirty five hundred

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Speaker 1: passing yards. But again, would it surprise me that he,

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Speaker 1: you know, ends up throwing for forty five hundred passing yards?

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Speaker 1: Of course not, it's it's Jameis Winston. But this is

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Speaker 1: a case where I think the median is much much

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Speaker 1: lower than you know, the mean, or like this is

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Speaker 1: almost like his ceiling. So I think that there's just

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Speaker 1: so much value on these unders that the game projection

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Speaker 1: itself is kind of why I like this under. It

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Speaker 1: it's so he's such a fickle player to project that

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Speaker 1: it does favor the under here absolutely.

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Speaker 2: And you know, we tend to project median projections. When

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Speaker 2: you guys see our projections on Action network dot Com

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Speaker 2: in the Fantasy tool, those are median projections. But every

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Speaker 2: player has a range of outcomes that you want to

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Speaker 2: take into account. And with this situation, regardless of where

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Speaker 2: you have the median at and Private Picks has it

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Speaker 2: at forty two hundred yards. But I think there's a

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Speaker 2: low floor, right, Like there's the amount of the range

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Speaker 2: of outcomes on the bottom side for Jamis Winston is

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Speaker 2: wider and larger than it is on the top.

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Speaker 3: So I agree.

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Speaker 2: I think the forty two hundred number is a lot

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Speaker 2: closer to his ceiling because I think the Saints still

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Speaker 2: going to be a pretty good defense, still going to

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Speaker 2: be a team that's going to run the ball with

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Speaker 2: Alvin Kamara and you know, with Tavius or maybe DeVante

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Speaker 2: Freeman if you believe some of the camp hype. But

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Speaker 2: I would be surprised if Jamis got over these over

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Speaker 2: that number. So I like that one a lot. My

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Speaker 2: first one is going to be Sam Darnald under twenty

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Speaker 2: three and a half passing touchdowns. And this is another

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Speaker 2: one where we're just kind of assuming Sam Donald's going

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Speaker 2: to start every single game for Carolina. That probable, but

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Speaker 2: it's never what really happened for Donald in his career.

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Speaker 2: He's always either missed, timed and then last year, remember Carolina,

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Speaker 2: they went away from Bridgewater in some games a little

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Speaker 2: bit toward the end of the season. So but more importantly,

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Speaker 2: remember Bridgewater is like, hey, this team, we didn't practice

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Speaker 2: situational football. They had sixteen passing touchdowns last year.

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Speaker 3: That's it. And for all of the receivers.

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Speaker 2: That kind of went off, you know, Dj Moore were

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Speaker 2: really just Dj Moore and Robbie Andersaid, but they played

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Speaker 2: really well for that team to still only have sixteen

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Speaker 2: passing touchdowns. And now you're asking Sam Donald to go

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Speaker 2: like essentially one point five x stat That means he

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Speaker 2: has to start every game and play better than the

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Speaker 2: Stam Donald that has played for the Jets. Seventeen touchdowns

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Speaker 2: in thirteen games in his rookie year, nineteen touchdowns in

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Speaker 2: thirteen games his second year, just nine touchdowns in twelve

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Speaker 2: games last year. So the most recent season is the

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Speaker 2: ugliest one of all, I just don't see a huge

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Speaker 2: jump for Sam Donald, especially on a team where outside

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Speaker 2: of Christian McCaffrey, who's a running back, so the touchdown

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Speaker 2: expectation is never going to be super high.

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Speaker 3: DJ Moore is not really a red zone guy.

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Speaker 2: He's four touchdowns, even though he's gotten nearly twelve hundred

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Speaker 2: yards in back to back years, has a top four touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: Robbie Anderson's never been a big touchdown guy. Terrace Marshall,

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Speaker 2: he's a rookie going to play in the slot. That

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Speaker 2: doesn't project for a ton of touchdowns either. And then

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Speaker 2: Dan Arnold's not even really a traditional tight end. I

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Speaker 2: just don't see where you're getting all these touchdowns from,

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Speaker 2: even if Donald starts every game.

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Speaker 3: So this one is a few touchdowns too high for me.

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Speaker 2: I'm going under twenty three and a half passing touchdowns

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Speaker 2: for Sam Donald.

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Speaker 3: No comments, okay, oh yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, Like anytime you can go against Sam Donald,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to stop you. I do think you're

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Speaker 1: underselling Terrence Marshall a little bit there. I think he

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Speaker 1: will sort of be the red zone threat. But again, yeah,

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Speaker 1: under twenty three and a half passing touchdowns sign me

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Speaker 1: up for that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean I like Terrace Marshall as much as the

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Speaker 2: next guy. But you're talking about a guy who had

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Speaker 2: nine touchdowns and twelve starts last year and a team

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Speaker 2: that he's going to that had sixteen touchdowns in sixteen games.

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Speaker 2: It's just a big regression to the mean upwards projection

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Speaker 2: to get Sam Darnold there. So yeah, I am going

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Speaker 2: under for him. Give me another one for quarterback Shaw.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going with Jalen Hurts over six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty five and a half rushing yards. I'm projecting him

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Speaker 1: closer to seven hundred and fifty. You know, there is

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Speaker 1: some uncertainty if he's going to grow as a passer

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Speaker 1: this year, and I share that concern, but he won't

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Speaker 1: have to to clear this prop because we already know

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Speaker 1: he's a really good runner, an elite rushing quarterback at that. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, rushing sets are much more predictive. This feels like,

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Speaker 1: you know, will he play over under fourteen games kind

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Speaker 1: of prop in my opinion, So I'm taking the over here,

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Speaker 1: and I would, you know, take probably up to seven

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Speaker 1: hundred maybe seven twenty. Like I said, this is a

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Speaker 1: pretty predictive stat So that's why I'm really comfortable taking

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Speaker 1: me over six fifty five here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him over seven hundred rushing yards as well.

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Speaker 2: And the reason it's so predictive is because scramble rate

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Speaker 2: is very very sticky, like a quarterback's rate of scrambling

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Speaker 2: is going to be. You can have like a couple

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Speaker 2: of games worse, maybe even just one or two games

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Speaker 2: worth of dropbacks, and you can get a very good

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Speaker 2: idea of a quarterback scramble rate because most quarterbacks they

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Speaker 2: either do it or they don't. So Jalen Hurts scrambled

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Speaker 2: on thirteen zero point five percent of his dropbacks a

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Speaker 2: year ago. I haven't regressing to the mean a little bit.

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Speaker 2: The leak average is closer to five percent. But I

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Speaker 2: have him still scrambling about eleven percent of the time

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Speaker 2: this year, so that is good. And the average scramble

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Speaker 2: is like a pass attempt in terms of yard are

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Speaker 2: just going to get you like seven yards a pop,

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Speaker 2: regardless of the quarterback. So yeah, it's I think it's

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Speaker 2: a very very high floor projection. The only thing that

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Speaker 2: could really vombit is if he doesn't play enough games,

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Speaker 2: Like you.

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Speaker 1: Said, that's the concern for sure. That's why it feels

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Speaker 1: like games played prop which there's you know, there's fair

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Speaker 1: concern there, but it's you know, I would take the

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Speaker 1: over fourteen, and that's kind of what this feels like.

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Speaker 2: He does face the Falcons in Week one, so you

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Speaker 2: could get you know, a buck fifty right up to that, you.

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Speaker 3: Know, just run around start.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I can't even I could see that

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Speaker 2: game just being the Eagle's best offensive performance.

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Speaker 3: Of the year.

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Speaker 2: I'm very curious to see how the Falcons feel the

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Speaker 2: a competitive defense this year. So, uh, like the over

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Speaker 2: for Jalen Hurts Russian, I'm going to go with Aaron

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Speaker 2: Rodgers under four thousand and five hundred and fifty passing yards.

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers had an amazing season last year. He took

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Speaker 2: what he was struggling at, you know, the year before,

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Speaker 2: which was they still win thirteen to three. But he

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Speaker 2: you know, he said, he you know, used COVID to

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Speaker 2: really kind of see what was going wrong the previous

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Speaker 2: few years. His numbers had dipped, and he came back

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Speaker 2: with a vengeance. I think he did make some improvements

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Speaker 2: to his mental game with in terms of handling pressure

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Speaker 2: and things like that. But to hit this number, he'd

196
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Speaker 2: essentially have to average the same amount of passing yards

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Speaker 2: per game as last year, about two hundred and seventy

198
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Speaker 2: yards per game a little more, actually play all seventeen games,

199
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Speaker 2: and he would have on top of that, he would

200
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Speaker 2: have to, you know, come close to that eight point

201
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Speaker 2: two yards per attempt average. He hadn't gone above eight

202
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Speaker 2: since twenty fourteen. So does he play every game? Maybe

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Speaker 2: green Bay could be really good. Maybe they you know,

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Speaker 2: he sits the last week the season out, Maybe the

205
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Speaker 2: yards per attempt comes down. Maybe DeVante Adams misses a

206
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Speaker 2: few games, which would bring the prop down. But on

207
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Speaker 2: top of that, one of the things that Rodgers changed

208
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Speaker 2: line of scrimmage. He made sure to take as much

209
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Speaker 2: time as he needed to manipulate the defense. The green

210
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Speaker 2: Bay Packers had the slowest situation neutral pace in the league,

211
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Speaker 2: and they were basically last in every single pace category,

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Speaker 2: you know, whether it was leading, trailing, first, second half, whatever.

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Speaker 2: They were near the bottom of the league or at

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Speaker 2: the bottom.

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Speaker 3: Of the league.

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Speaker 2: So so many things would have to go right for

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers to hit this. And these are the kind

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Speaker 2: of props I love unders where a guy could have

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Speaker 2: a very good season and still fall short of the

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Speaker 2: prop because again Green Bay thirteen and three two years

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Speaker 2: in a row, the game script might just not be

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Speaker 2: necessary for Aaron Rodgers to throw over four five hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty yards. So this one is one where you

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Speaker 2: might see the name and be scared to bet the under.

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Speaker 3: But I love the under here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it too. And obviously there's an extra

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Speaker 1: game this year, but he hasn't gone over this total

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Speaker 1: since twenty eleven, I believe, And if you were to

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Speaker 1: add you know, say two hundred and fifty yards every

230
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Speaker 1: total the past ten years, he'd still be under most

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Speaker 1: of the times. Aaron Rodgers just pure status. This year,

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Speaker 1: I think the Packers will be really good, so yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that they could run a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: So I agree with this under here. Really haven't projected

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Speaker 1: right now for passing.

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Speaker 3: Yards I have him at because.

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Speaker 2: I'm one hundred yards less. I'm almost two hundred west.

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Speaker 2: I'm at forty three sixty two okay, cool?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And honestly, one hundred yards less is a big

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Speaker 1: deal because there's there's so many more outs for the

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Speaker 1: under to hit. Like you said, they could have a

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Speaker 1: round one by in the playoffs already locked up, and

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Speaker 1: he sits, we get eighteen. There's so many other things

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Speaker 1: that can happen for the under to hit. Whereas you know,

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Speaker 1: last year was kind of a ceiling year, so he

246
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Speaker 1: should you know, arrest somewhat this year. So yeah, I

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Speaker 1: love this prop a lot.

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Speaker 2: And you know what, we should talk about this now

249
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Speaker 2: before we because it's kind of an underlying theme that

250
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Speaker 2: I doubt a lot of other people are going to

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Speaker 2: talk about or podcasts are going.

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Speaker 3: To talk about.

253
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Speaker 2: But we should talk about this because it affects the

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Speaker 2: player of projections, and that is the league averages from

255
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Speaker 2: last year. Last year, the NFL said an all time

256
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Speaker 2: scoring record at twenty four point eight points per game.

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Speaker 2: That was one point four points higher than the previous high,

258
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Speaker 2: which was twenty three to four in twenty thirteen. Also

259
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Speaker 2: sixty four point three plays per game. You know, that

260
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Speaker 2: was up from the prior uh, you know, six years,

261
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Speaker 2: five years, so that was a five year high passing.

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Speaker 2: You know, interceptions were down, you know, obviously holding penalties

263
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Speaker 2: were down, so kind of there was like a one

264
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Speaker 2: point one less penalties per game. I mean a lot

265
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Speaker 2: of that I think was due you know, partly to

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Speaker 2: the holding, but also the COVID situation and defense is

267
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Speaker 2: not really being prepared. I think the lack of the

268
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Speaker 2: crowd noise impact benefited the offense and impacted the defense.

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Speaker 2: So do you think there could be a little bit

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Speaker 2: of regression league wide in these offensive numbers because essentially

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Speaker 2: almost across the board we saw outliers in offensive production

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Speaker 2: last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, you laid out some of the things

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Speaker 1: I was going to mention, like the holding, the crowd noise,

275
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Speaker 1: the lack of offseason for the defense. I think that

276
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Speaker 1: you know, in general, the league is going to be

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Speaker 1: higher scoring going forward. The league is getting more pass happy,

278
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Speaker 1: more analytical, the you know, the quarterbacks are just getting better.

279
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Speaker 1: There's so many good quarterbacks. So I think just the

280
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Speaker 1: league in general, you know, start to score more. But

281
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Speaker 1: like you said, I think last year was sort of

282
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Speaker 1: the extreme. So I think that, yeah, we'll see a

283
00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 1: little bit less this year. Is especially with the crowd

284
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Speaker 1: noise and everything, that's going to really help you know,

285
00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 1: the home team. So I think that, yeah, that's a

286
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,840
Speaker 1: smart call where all these players might take a step

287
00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,360
Speaker 1: back just based on kind of the league having these

288
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 1: you know, extra factor is going into this year.

289
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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's not a huge thing.

290
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Speaker 2: But when you're talking about these season one crops and

291
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 2: you know, every ten twenty yards is you know, a

292
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Speaker 2: little bit of an edge. Every five receptions is a

293
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 2: little bit of an edge, Every like half a touchdown

294
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Speaker 2: is an edge. I think that's important because I do

295
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,360
Speaker 2: have league wide the numbers regressing just a tiny bit,

296
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Speaker 2: Like I have completion percentage you know, in my projections

297
00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 2: down maybe about a half a percent, so my reception totals,

298
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,520
Speaker 2: you know, would be a tiny bit lower than last year.

299
00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,080
Speaker 2: Same thing for touchdowns, you know, have them down just

300
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,080
Speaker 2: a tiny bit from their all time highs. Because one

301
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,640
Speaker 2: point four points over your previous high, like that's an outlier.

302
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Speaker 1: That's huge.

303
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,200
Speaker 2: So maybe it could continue, but we can't bank on that,

304
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 2: especially with stands back in the stands. So definitely something

305
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,000
Speaker 2: to keep in mind, and I think something that it's

306
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,680
Speaker 2: something that gives you a little extra incentive to go

307
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Speaker 2: under with some of these big numbers.

308
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Speaker 3: All right, let's keep it going.

309
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 2: I had Darnold under, Rogers under, you had Winston under,

310
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Speaker 2: and Hurts over.

311
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:08,200
Speaker 3: Give me another QB prop.

312
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,400
Speaker 1: I'm going with Josh Allen under four hundred and eighty

313
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 1: rushing yards. You know, there's two hundred and fifty eight

314
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 1: million reasons why the Bills probably want him to run

315
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,960
Speaker 1: it a little bit less going forward. You know, they

316
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,280
Speaker 1: want to protect him. You know, he took a really

317
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,480
Speaker 1: big step last year as a passer, so he didn't

318
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 1: really have to run as much. You mentioned scrambling rate

319
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,560
Speaker 1: when it comes to quarterbacks and sort of rushing stats,

320
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 1: and we've seen his scrambling rate drop pretty significantly every year.

321
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Speaker 1: Now as a rookie, I think is around twelve percent,

322
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,200
Speaker 1: His second year is around eight and a half, and

323
00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:42,960
Speaker 1: then last year dropped down to like five and a

324
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 1: half percent. So we've seen, you know, the more comfortable

325
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,920
Speaker 1: he is in the pocket and with his throwing ability,

326
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,360
Speaker 1: he's running a bit less now. I think that he

327
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 1: will still run around the red zone. So I'm still

328
00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,600
Speaker 1: projecting him for a ton of touchdowns. I have him

329
00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 1: at seven and a half rushing touchdowns, but his rushing

330
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,320
Speaker 1: yards you have closer to four hundred and four hundred

331
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Speaker 1: and seven rushing yards right now. So I think that

332
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Speaker 1: you know, this prop I don't really see how it's

333
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,160
Speaker 1: going to go over. You know, I think there's a

334
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,399
Speaker 1: little bit lower floor on this one. Last year he

335
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 1: ran for four hundred and twenty rushing yards in sixteen games,

336
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 1: so I think that that might be kind of the

337
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 1: baseline going forward. So an extra game there would still

338
00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 1: put him under this number. So again we were talking

339
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,080
Speaker 1: about different outs for the under hitting again, missing a

340
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,400
Speaker 1: game due to injury, you know, not having to play

341
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,000
Speaker 1: week eighteen because they have a first round by There's

342
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,680
Speaker 1: there's so many more outs for the under hitting that

343
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 1: if my projection is a little bit closer and I

344
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,399
Speaker 1: don't really see any reason for him to increase his

345
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,920
Speaker 1: issues there this year, I'd like that ender even more

346
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 1: so That's why I love this pick. Under four hundred

347
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 1: and eighty yards is another great pick I like here.

348
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've met four forty six in sixteen and a

349
00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 2: half games, So sixteen and a half games usually my

350
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:59,400
Speaker 2: default for quarterbacks in less someone's going on there, So yeah,

351
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 2: I have them thirty five yards under. And that's what

352
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 2: is That's like a game's worth rushing yards.

353
00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,560
Speaker 1: That's almost a game for him. So yeah, I'm right

354
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 1: there with you.

355
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it doesn't sound like a lot, I know

356
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 2: to people listening maybe who aren't used to doing some

357
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 2: of these kind of things or you're just listening for fantasy.

358
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 2: I still have Allen as my QB too, but Ima

359
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,160
Speaker 2: Murray is right there for me, like they're almost tied,

360
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 2: because I think Murray's going to have a schedule that

361
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,720
Speaker 2: favors a little bit more shootout kind of style, whereas

362
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 2: the Bills are going to be so good that we

363
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 2: could see Josh Allen regrets, not because he takes a

364
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 2: step back, but just because the Bills are pretty good

365
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 2: and they were good last year obviously. But something to

366
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 2: keep in mind that I don't really have a ton

367
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 2: of separation there between Allen and Murray and Jackson's sitting

368
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,199
Speaker 2: there and forth with that kind of catching up to

369
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,399
Speaker 2: him because there's just so many injuries in Baltimore on

370
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 2: that offense that I don't know what exactly they're going

371
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:02,160
Speaker 2: to do, but right, yeah, but I mean the more

372
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 2: you run it, you know, the more that opens a

373
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 2: guy like Lamar Jackson up to injury. So it's kind

374
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 2: of like, yeah, I think that you have some outs

375
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 2: for Jackson under as well, and that's why I'm actually

376
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 2: going with the under seven and a half rushing touchdowns

377
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,160
Speaker 2: for him and a lot of people may say, Okay, JK.

378
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 2: Dobbins got hurt, they'll probably run Lamar more. But again,

379
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 2: I just think, first of all, Dobbins was such a

380
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,680
Speaker 2: high efficiency runner that I think it knocks this offense

381
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 2: down a tiny bit.

382
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 3: Gus Edwards is good, but JK. Dobbins was otherworldly.

383
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 2: You already expected some regression from what a Dobbins average

384
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 2: six point zero yards per carry last year on one

385
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty four carries, so you expected some regression already,

386
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,680
Speaker 2: but I think you expect a little.

387
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,359
Speaker 3: Bit more now with him out for the year.

388
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 2: So I don't know if they'll beat close, you know,

389
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: to the red zone quite as much as they would

390
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,199
Speaker 2: especially because you also have Marquis Brown missing time and

391
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 2: Watkins missing time, and Bateman is going to be out

392
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 2: to start the season. Nick Boyle just came back, so

393
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 2: I could just see a sloppy stretch for Baltimore. But

394
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 2: also you look at Lamar and he had seven rushing

395
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 2: touchdowns last year in fifteen games, but he had touchdowns

396
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 2: of fifty, thirty seven and thirty seven as three of

397
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 2: those seven. So I think that yeah, you still expect

398
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,639
Speaker 2: Lamar to get some some scores. But It was also

399
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 2: a pretty big record setting year for quarterback rushing touchdowns,

400
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 2: so I have a lot of regressions there too. So

401
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 2: I like a lot of the unders for quarterback rushing touchdowns,

402
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 2: but I have Lamar closer to six six and a half,

403
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 2: not seven to seven and a half. I just think

404
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 2: you're going to that's the stat you see. You're going

405
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 2: to see some regression in you For Lamar, I just

406
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,199
Speaker 2: think getting it real good with seven and back to

407
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: back years, but I don't think he sets a career

408
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 2: high with eight this year.

409
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 3: So going under Lamar rushing touchdowns, yeah, Like.

410
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 1: I haven't projected seven point one rushing touchdowns, but here

411
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:09,440
Speaker 1: you mentioned it where every half, Yeah, touchdown counts for

412
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: you know, a quarterback like this, Like you said his

413
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 1: career high as seven touchdowns. He's done it in back

414
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 1: to back years, of course, and there's an extra game

415
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 1: this year. But he's the kind of quarterback where I

416
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 1: don't know where you haven't projected for games played by

417
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 1: him a little bit lower than your traditional quarterback because

418
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,400
Speaker 1: you know, he is a running quarterback, so he's more

419
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 1: prone injury. So I'm projecting him for sixteen point one

420
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: games played, So that's why I'm still projecting him around

421
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 1: seven touchdowns. But where do you have him for games played?

422
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have him at sixteen to five.

423
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 2: I had him a little lower earlier when he wasn't practicing,

424
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 2: he was on a COVID list.

425
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 3: But I tend.

426
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 2: To leave most guys that are like healthy and you know,

427
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: not there's not something crazy at sixteen to five.

428
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 3: But I think that's actually a good call.

429
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 2: You know, if I might make some little tweaks here

430
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: and there, like I have Dak at sixteen, he's one

431
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 2: of the guys that because there's some uncertainty there, I'll

432
00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 2: have a.

433
00:21:59,000 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 3: Little further down.

434
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: But either way, I think, you know, if I lowered Lamar,

435
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 2: let's se I can do it right now. If I

436
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 2: lowered Lamar to sixteen games, then his rushing touchdowns total.

437
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 3: The fives for you, Yeah, it's like five to five.

438
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 2: So yeah, and again that's not just a knock on Lamar.

439
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 2: It's because quarterback rushing touchdowns last year were around zero

440
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 2: point two per game, whereas historically they've been more around

441
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 2: you know, well one point one two five, which is

442
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 2: like two in a sixteen two per sixteen games. Last

443
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 2: year they were like three per sixteen games. And yeah,

444
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 2: there's some there's better scramblers in the league. Now there's

445
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 2: guys that are more athletic, but still it's not easy

446
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 2: to score a rushing.

447
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 3: Touchdown, even if you're a quarterback.

448
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 2: You know, the defense tightens up in that red zones

449
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 2: and it's it's tough to break off three thirty five

450
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 2: plus touchdown runs.

451
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 3: In a season.

452
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 1: And to his credit, he really doesn't take that many

453
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: big hits. He's so fast that he can usually escape

454
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: really a big hits. But for a quarterback like him,

455
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 1: any kind of hamstring pull or an ankle tweak, like

456
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: anything can really set him back. So it's it's not

457
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 1: so much you know, he's just running around gonna get

458
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 1: hit hard. It's also just these soft tissue injuries things

459
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 1: like that. He just he just puts himself at such

460
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 1: a risk and he depends on his legs so much

461
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: that any kind of injury will set him back a lot.

462
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: So that's why I think a guy like him, there's

463
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,719
Speaker 1: so many outs for the unders that yeah, like if

464
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,679
Speaker 1: you're going to attack him, you'd want to attack the unders.

465
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: And just schematically speaking as well, with the way Baltimore's

466
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 2: receiving corpse has been trending. With everyone missing time and

467
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 2: guys out of the lineup, defenses are gonna be able

468
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 2: to force Lamar to throw, you know, especially now with JK.

469
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: Dobbins out, like Lamar is the main focus of the

470
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 2: defense and containing him. I mean it has been before,

471
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 2: but it just gets a little easier with what's going

472
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 2: on in Baltimore.

473
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, a lot of outs there. Who you got for?

474
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,439
Speaker 3: We're gonna do four each for each type of props?

475
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 3: So who is he? Which is your fourth one? For

476
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 3: qbast My fourth one is a fun one.

477
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 1: I want to bank on two a tongue of villaw

478
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 1: having a bounce back year two, So I'm going over

479
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 1: thirty nine hundred passing yards. You know, his rookie season

480
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 1: was really rough. He didn't make his first start until

481
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 1: week eight because they had Ryan Fitzmagic, and then he

482
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: was benched in game in week eleven, and you know

483
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,479
Speaker 1: we kind of know the rest from there. But you know,

484
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 1: he was coming off a hip injury. It was a

485
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: COVID deleted offseason. It's it was really tough for him

486
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 1: as a rookie. I think the offense under chan Gaily

487
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:39,479
Speaker 1: was tailored for Ryan Fitzpatrick. So I think that you know,

488
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: heading it. This year, he's looked a lot better. I mean,

489
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 1: I've watched every preseason snap he's played, and he looks

490
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: like a brand new quarterback. It's it's almost like he

491
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 1: should have sat out last season, that's how much better

492
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: he looks. So that's why I'm very bullish on him

493
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: this year now. And he has Jalen Waddell who's looked great,

494
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: and Will Fuller. We haven't really seen will Fuller much,

495
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 1: but he will be healthy for about ten games at least,

496
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,959
Speaker 1: so I think he's going to bring that extra element

497
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 1: to to his game. Fuller has always made the quarterback

498
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: look good, so I think that's going to help. And

499
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: then Mike Jesicki and DeVante Parker are still there, so

500
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 1: I love to.

501
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 2: Uh.

502
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 1: I know, you think that Jacoby Brissett might you know,

503
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: be a threat of an end game mentioning, but I

504
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: think To has looked good enough where I'm betting gets

505
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 1: at this year, and I love the over thirty nine

506
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: hundred yards.

507
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know.

508
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's your recency bias from

509
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 2: watching To and destroy the Falcons backup. I know you

510
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 2: had some action on that, and yet you cashed your

511
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 2: cash though, you know, other.

512
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 1: Than nothing, I obviously don't want to say I'm taking

513
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 1: too much away from preseason, but it's better than nothing, right,

514
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 1: I mean he did look a lot better. Oh absolutely,

515
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: That's all we can ask for with to is. We

516
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: know he's talented and last year he had a lot

517
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: of excuses, but this is a make or breakthrough. You

518
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 1: hate to say that for a second year player, but

519
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: it really is. And I think he's looked a lot

520
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: better than I expected.

521
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 2: The interesting thing to me, I mean, you know, I'm

522
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 2: I usually stay away from the overs, but one thing

523
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 2: that scares me is the Deshaun Watson trade rumors. I

524
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 2: don't think there's a much of a chance that Watson

525
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 2: gets traded to Miami in plays, but Miami has been

526
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 2: right there at the top of the list with the

527
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: Philadelphia Eagles as the teams that he's been rumored to.

528
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 3: So does that factor in it all? Like I know,

529
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: earlier in.

530
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 2: The offseason, we talked about kind of factoring Aaron Rodgers

531
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 2: potential land in spots like, is Watson a factor in

532
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 2: your predictions at all?

533
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 3: At this point?

534
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: Or is it just move it gets moved because he's

535
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 1: he's uncappable. I can't even think of words that scribe.

536
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: But in those situations, wouldn't like either hurts or to

537
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: a now become the Texans quarterback? Like I can't imagine

538
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: there be a trade where there all of a sudden

539
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 1: backing up Watson, right, Like, I don't know, Like it

540
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,360
Speaker 1: seems like they would still start for somebody in those situations,

541
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: right you.

542
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 2: Would think, I mean two a tecond I los second

543
00:26:59,520 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: year player.

544
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,479
Speaker 1: Uh you know, is the Texans a guy give Watson

545
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: away for free? Like they didn't even ask for quarterback,

546
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 1: Like imagine, no.

547
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 2: Like it's Brissette, They'll get Brissette put Tyrod.

548
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, so here, how can you factor that? And obviously

549
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: there that is some risks anytime you're taking it over

550
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 1: for a season long prop you know, it's it's not fun,

551
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 1: but that's you know, that's part of the fun is

552
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: she would have to bounce back here. And I'm just

553
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: kind of ignoring the noise with the Deshaun Watson situation,

554
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: which I think you can. I think it's it's a

555
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 1: low probability he's gonna play for anybody this year so

556
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 1: I think that some like that I'm basically ignoring on

557
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: this prop.

558
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 2: Okay, it's not a prize picks prop, but I got

559
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 2: a prop for you real quick. Over under games played

560
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 2: this season combined, uh seventeen and a half Will Fuller

561
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 2: plus DeShawn Jackson.

562
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: Oh, DeShawn Jackson, Will Fuller. I want to root for

563
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: the over, So I'm taking the over. But I think, yeah,

564
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: both will be around nine or ten games.

565
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 3: I'll be an improvement for DeShawn. That's a good look.

566
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's like what two games in the past three

567
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: seasons or something.

568
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, three games.

569
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to see them play more than that.

570
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna I'm gonna take the over here. I'm

571
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: gonna be a donkey and take the over.

572
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 2: I still can't believe that Will Fuller got suspended last year.

573
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: I mean I was I remember screaming.

574
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,439
Speaker 2: It out, like, don't don't like label a guy injury prone.

575
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 3: You know, he's gonna have a great year. And then

576
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 3: he was doing exactly what I thought he would do.

577
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: And then he did exactly what everyone else thought he

578
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 2: would do in miss games, and not because of injury,

579
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 2: but because he you know, he was enhancing his performance

580
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 2: so he didn't get injured.

581
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, see it cancel itself out, like that's the only reason.

582
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: Maybe he stayed healthy. Who knows, but yeah, of course

583
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 1: he gets suspended.

584
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, I just I just hope we don't see

585
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 2: too much Albert Wilson in Miami. I feel like I

586
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: keep hearing about him in camp, and it's you know,

587
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh man, it's like, if we see too

588
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: much of him, we know it's probably things are probably

589
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 2: going well.

590
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 1: It's gonna be way better than last year. Remember it

591
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: last year? And then they have like six or seven

592
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: running back slash wide receiver High Bowden, Lynn Bowden, Malcolm Perry.

593
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: I think who looked again looked pretty good in preseason.

594
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 2: If you're gonna make the team, I don't know, Like

595
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 2: I don't think I haven't projected to make the team.

596
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 1: Who but jackim grant all those low a kind of

597
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: guys like Tua was dealing with that last year. Just

598
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 1: if we can get Will Fuller to stay healthy for

599
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: ten plus games, you know two is going to crush

600
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: this problem.

601
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, Jamn Wadow don't underestimate him. That's a that's

602
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 2: a talent right there. That could change your whole uh,

603
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: you know, your whole stat line if you're a quarterback.

604
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 2: So exactly, I'm going to round out our quarterback props

605
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: with Matt Ryan. I'm going under twenty nine and a

606
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: half passing touchdow. So Matt Ryan would essentially need to

607
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: play every game and average one point seven touchdowns per game.

608
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 2: He's averaged one point six per game or fewer in

609
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 2: three of the last four years. He's you know, going

610
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: to a new offensive coordinator obviously, you know, there's just

611
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 2: a lot of change. Julio Jones has gone. Remember even

612
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 2: when Matt Ryan had some really good years under had

613
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 2: that really good year under Kyle Shanahan, that first year

614
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 2: he struggled. You never know if Matt Ryan is going

615
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 2: to pick up the new offense, you know, as quick

616
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: as you you know, as and just kind of revert

617
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: to his you know, crazy ceiling performances, especially now a

618
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 2: year older, especially without Julio Jones. So I think, yeah,

619
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan still has some decent weapons with Ridley and

620
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 2: Kyle Piss, but I think there's a low floor here.

621
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: And again, he would have to play every game and

622
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 2: average more touchdowns and he's averaged with a better supporting

623
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 2: cast in three of the last four years. So I

624
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 2: think Ryan is being a little bit inflated here at

625
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: twenty nine and a half, I having a couple of

626
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 2: touchdowns well or so going under the twenty nine and

627
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 2: a half for Matt Ryan pass touchdowns.

628
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that call. And you know, even though

629
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: Julio left and he wasn't really a touchdown scorer at all.

630
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 1: You know, he didn't score ten plus touchdowns for about

631
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 1: a decade now, he's still allowed others to score touchdowns.

632
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: So I think without him there, you know, like calvi

633
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: Lely is going to see more double teams. It's gonna

634
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: hurt Matt Ryan. So yeah, I love the pick. Although

635
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: did you see, speaking of overacting the preseason, did you

636
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: see the one catch by Kyle Pitts. He looked pretty good.

637
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he's gonna be good. My only issue is him.

638
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: People were just taken him at He's like ceiling like

639
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 2: that's right, Like I'm trying to draft him and I

640
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 2: get him sometimes, but so much lessing guys like Hockinson

641
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 2: because just at.

642
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 3: The end of a tear, so yeah, at the end

643
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 3: in the beginning.

644
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,479
Speaker 1: And our fifteen second timer draft last night, I got

645
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:05,239
Speaker 1: him as the tight end sex. I didn't really get

646
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: to think about it much, but it's nice when he

647
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: falls to you at the end of that tier. Usually

648
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: it's TJ. Hawkinson, but I think that he's he's good

649
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: enough to at least rank inside that top six. But yeah,

650
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 1: I think people you know, taking him tenan four, you know,

651
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: definitely take him closer a ceiling.

652
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, it'll be It would be a fun pick. So yeah,

653
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 3: I don't hate it.

654
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: But in terms of the media outcome, yeah, I think

655
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 2: I think he's more likely than not to be to

656
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: be fine, it's tough to beat his ADP by a lot,

657
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,840
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658
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,600
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669
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670
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682
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 3: Let's go to running back.

683
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 2: So we're talking either rushing yards, receiving yards, or touchdowns.

684
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 2: So start us off what running back prop be going

685
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 2: with first.

686
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: So this one I think I stole from you because

687
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: I think you're on the same page at this. But

688
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 1: did Der Swift under nine hundred rushing yards? You know

689
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 1: he is over his growing injury, it looks like, but

690
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 1: you know, head coach Dan Campbell has been saying he

691
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: doesn't think is conditionings up to snuff, so he might

692
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: start the season in a fairly limited role. You know,

693
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: they brought in Jamal Williams, so I think they're comfortable

694
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: splitting the work, and honestly, this could end up being

695
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 1: more of a fifty to fifty backfield regardless of when

696
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 1: Swift is healthy. So you know, offensive corner Anthony Lynn

697
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 1: has made some cryptic comments when it comes to things

698
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: like that. So I love the under here. And you know,

699
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 1: this Lions team should be mostly in trailing game scripts.

700
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: So I don't like Swift's rushing upside as much. You know,

701
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: for fancy, I still think he's a pretty good pick.

702
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: Is you know, a low end RB two if you

703
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: can get him and that range because of his receiving upside.

704
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: So when we get a prop like this where it's

705
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: just his rushing yards, I love that because I think

706
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: his floors a little bit lower when it comes to

707
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 1: rushing yards because of Jamal Williams, Whereas you know, these

708
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: trailing game scripts are going to favor his receiving usage.

709
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 1: So that's why I love attacking under nine hundred rushing yards.

710
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: I would set this lower and put it maybe around

711
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 1: eight to fifty. I just think when you have a

712
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: player that's not even entering the season one hundred percent,

713
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: you tend to downgrade them a little bit more than

714
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: you would other players. So that's why I love this under.

715
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have it at let's see, I know I

716
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 2: have it even lower than eight fifty. Yeah, I have

717
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 2: it about around seven to fifty. And the reason is

718
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 2: there's just so many red flags with Swift beyond just

719
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 2: the availability concerns. In Week one, Projecting him for an

720
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 2: increase in carries is exactly that. It's a projection. He

721
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: averaged eight point eight carries per game last year. And

722
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 2: remember this is now not the regime that drafted him.

723
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 2: So even though a lot of people were high in

724
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 2: DeAndre Swift and he's a young guy entering year two,

725
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 2: second round pick thirty fifth overall last season, that was

726
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: a Matt Patricia pick.

727
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 3: That wasn't a Dan Campbell pick.

728
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 2: And there's just been a lot of, like you said,

729
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 2: cryptic comments and nothing really too positive coming out of

730
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 2: Lions camp about DeAndre Swift.

731
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 3: So the writing's on the wall.

732
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: And he would almost have to He had five hundred

733
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 2: and twenty one yards in thirteen games last year year,

734
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: so you would have to have a pretty big uptick

735
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 2: and stay pretty healthy to get to that number. So

736
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to come close to a

737
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: thousand yards this year. You know, I could be wrong.

738
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: He's a talented guy. Detroit's line is not half bad

739
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 2: at all, but just a lot of things would have

740
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 2: to go right, a lot more out for the under

741
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 2: lower floor.

742
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 3: So I like that one.

743
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 2: I'm going with my first one for running backs, Miles

744
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 2: Sanders going under seven and a half rushing touchdowns. And

745
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 2: this is a kind of a similar situation to Lamar Jackson,

746
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 2: where you look at Sanders and he had six scores

747
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 2: last year, but one was from eighty two yards out

748
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 2: and another was from seventy four yards out.

749
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 3: You cannot bank on runs.

750
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 2: You can't even bank on a guy getting that long

751
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 2: of a run period, much less that long of a

752
00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: touchdown run any given season, So I think that there's

753
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 2: gonna be some regression there. We don't know exactly what Sanders'

754
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 2: role is going to be because this is another team

755
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: with a new regime. I keep hearing that they're going

756
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 2: to keep Jordan Howard around for short yardage, which would

757
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 2: directly impact Miles Sanders touchdown upside. But for his career,

758
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 2: if you just want to go back and kind of

759
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 2: spl split the difference and just look, say, okay, what

760
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 2: has he done in his career. He has nine rushing

761
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 2: scores on three hundred and forty three carries. That is

762
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 2: a rate of two point six percent. So he would

763
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 2: need three hundred and seven carries to get to eight

764
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 2: touchdowns given his career rate. So you do have some

765
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 2: wiggle room because I doubt Miles Sanders gets anywhere close

766
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,439
Speaker 2: to three hundred carries. I think somewhere in the low

767
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 2: two hundreds is where he's gonna end up, you know,

768
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:50,240
Speaker 2: even in the even if.

769
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 3: He plays close to the full season.

770
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 2: So I think you have some nice wiggle room here

771
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 2: with Miles Sanders and his touchdowns in.

772
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 3: This Eagle offense.

773
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 2: We still don't know how they're gonna utilize Jalen Hurts

774
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 2: down in the red zone. So last year Hurts I

775
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 2: think he only had one carry inside the inside the

776
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,240
Speaker 2: ten yard line, So you know, we don't know exactly

777
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 2: what his role is going to be.

778
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 3: There's just a lot of.

779
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 2: MS certainty and a guy that really hasn't been a

780
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: touchdown score in his career on an offense that may

781
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: not be a very high scoring offense.

782
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 3: So I like the under seven and a half.

783
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that, Colin. Like you said, like he's

784
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of competition for the short yardage

785
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. Jalen Hurts number one. You know, Jordan Howard,

786
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: if he stays on the team, I think he will

787
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 1: be the goal line back, and even Boston Scott for

788
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: being a tiny back, he's actually been pretty effective in

789
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 1: goal line situations. He's scored a touchdown on four carries

790
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 1: four times on five carries inside the five, which is

791
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 1: bizarre because's such a tiny back. But they have a

792
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 1: bunch of different options that could use. So it's the

793
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 1: competition that makes my projection for Sanders pretty low. I've

794
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 1: at six point eight right now, but like you said,

795
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: there's a lot more reasons to you know, favor the under.

796
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 1: There's a lot more outs, so yeah, I love the

797
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: under seven and a half.

798
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 2: Yep, Miles Sanders just kind of he's in a weird

799
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 2: purgatory for me in drafts too, right, Like, have you

800
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 2: been getting a lot of Sanders in fantasy?

801
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 1: No? But I mean he is going late enough where

802
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: you know, if you get him at the end of

803
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 1: the RB two tier, he's not horrible, but you know

804
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 1: he is going to have to compete with We already said,

805
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 1: you know, Hurts and Howard for goal line scores. Gainwell

806
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 1: looks really good as a pass catching back, so we

807
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 1: already know that Sanders is going to be limited in

808
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: that role. But you know, if Gainwell and Scott like, uh,

809
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: it's it's always been tough for me to trust Eagles

810
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: running backs and it hasn't gotten better. But at least

811
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 1: his ADP is low enough where I think this time

812
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 1: last year, wasn't he like a low end RB one

813
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: with you know, similar concerns, I guess, but he's if

814
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 1: he goes cheap enough, I would I would grab him.

815
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 1: But you're just not expecting him to, you know, go

816
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: off this year. Yeah, exactly. It's he he's kind of yeah, purgatory.

817
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 1: Like I said, I have him with RB twenty four.

818
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 1: I like the under on his rushing yards profit Prize

819
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: pick as well. They have it at one thousand, So

820
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: I have him at nine to twenty five. And that's

821
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 1: with averaging thirteen carries per game and four point six

822
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 1: yards per carry, which is still pretty good. And I

823
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 1: still have him coming up about seventy five yards short

824
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 1: of that.

825
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 3: So about again about a game game a little over

826
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 3: a game short.

827
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 2: So like the under on his seven and a half touchdowns,

828
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 2: like the under on his one thousand rushing yards. Miles Sanders,

829
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 2: where are you going next, Sean? For running backs?

830
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: I'm going under one thousand rushing yards for James Robinson.

831
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 3: Boo. We love James Robinson here. I know too, I

832
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 3: do too.

833
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 1: You know, this line has settled one thousand after the

834
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: post Travis ATM season ending injury adjustment, and I think

835
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: it's a little bit too high, but I'm pretty close,

836
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: to be honest. You know, he came out of nowhere

837
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 1: last year as an undrafted rookie. Only Dominic Rhodes rushed

838
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: for more rushing yards than him as an undrafted rookie,

839
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: back in two thousand and one. So that's that's a

840
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: little bit of history for you. But you know, this

841
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 1: is a new coaching staff. You already mentioned that when

842
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 1: it came to Deandrew Swifth. This coaching staff, well, nobody

843
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 1: drafted James Robinson, but they drafted They did draft Trevs

844
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 1: Travis ATN in the first round, so that must tell

845
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: you something. But you know, when you look at last

846
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 1: year's game logs, the Jaggers literally had nobody to compete

847
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 1: with Robinson. They had rych Cole Armstead wasn't able to

848
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 1: suit up at all last year unfortunately due to COVID,

849
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 1: So they had Chris Thompson steal a couple of carries

850
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: every other game from James Robinson. That was about it.

851
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: And he's still you know, he he had a great season.

852
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 1: He rushed for one thousand and seventy yards. But now

853
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 1: he does have Carlos Hide there who's absolutely going to

854
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: take away, you know, a handful of carries a game.

855
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: So I just think there's a lower floor for Robinson

856
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 1: and if anything, you know, heide's going to eat into

857
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 1: his rushing work. James Robinson should still be very active

858
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 1: as a pass catcher, so I think they'll use them

859
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 1: exclusively there and you know, be a workhorse back. But

860
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 1: I still think Carlos Hyde is sort of enough of

861
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 1: a threat where you know, I would put this closer

862
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: like nine to fifty yards. This is another prop where

863
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 1: I think there's more outs for the under to hit,

864
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,399
Speaker 1: just because there's uncertainty, even though I know we love

865
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 1: James Robinson, but still, you know, he's an undrafted rookie

866
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 1: with a new coaching regime. You know, I think he's

867
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: going to have to have a really good season to

868
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: pass this.

869
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have it.

870
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 2: I have it pretty much on the lineup prize pick.

871
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 2: I am at nine eighty six, there at a thousand,

872
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 2: so I don't see as much value in it.

873
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 3: I kind of worry about Carlos Hot.

874
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 2: I mean, Carlos Hod's thirty one, so I don't know

875
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 2: just how much how effect that he's going to be

876
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 2: at taking carries away from Robinson over a full season.

877
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 2: I mean, Robinson was one of the best players on

878
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 2: an offense in the NFL last year, So I wouldn't

879
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 2: like I think there's some there's like a wide range

880
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 2: of outcomes, and I would always bet unders on running backs,

881
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 2: so I would have Again, I have a fifteen yards short,

882
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 2: so if I had to choose, I would go under.

883
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 2: But Robinson is a guy that I would be interested

884
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 2: in some you know, long shots, seeing what's out there,

885
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 2: you know, for some upside like his ceiling right, you know, yeah,

886
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 2: can you eat the league and rushing yard something like that.

887
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 2: You know that That's that's how I would kind of

888
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 2: attack it because I do think we might be underestimating him.

889
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: Again, right, No, I don't underestimate him. But if you look,

890
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: I think he had ten or eleven games where he

891
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 1: had one hundred percent of the game he did like,

892
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 1: how did you ever see that? It's so rare. But

893
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: that that's more of how the Jagger's running back situation

894
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 1: was last year. It was such a mess that I

895
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 1: just think. I'm not saying Carlos height is good or

896
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: anything like that. Just he's going to have some competition,

897
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 1: That's all I'm saying. Again, I do like him for

898
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 1: fancy because he still will dominate the receiving usage. I

899
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,879
Speaker 1: don't think Carlos Head's gonna factor into that as much.

900
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 1: So I still love him for fancy. I just think

901
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 1: is rushing yards is what I'm trying to attack here. Yeah,

902
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:21,240
Speaker 1: where do you have him for a half PPR? Now, Robinson,

903
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:25,879
Speaker 1: I think RB thirteen, you know, high high end RB two. Yeah,

904
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: I have n't at sixteen. So like right after that

905
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: Edwards d waer, I have him ranked higher than you

906
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 1: see who's doubting James? Yeah, I mean, but yeah, it's

907
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,760
Speaker 1: not the same area. You know, there's Harris and James.

908
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 1: Robinson is a coin flip for me, like right in

909
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:42,280
Speaker 1: that range.

910
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's I still go nausey, but it's yeah, I

911
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 2: can't really argue with it. I just think, like you said,

912
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 2: the Robinson last year just had that huge workload, and

913
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 2: I think Nag actually might have a better chance at

914
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,399
Speaker 2: getting that close to one hundred percent usage this year

915
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 2: because Benny Snell, I mean, he might not make the team.

916
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 2: McFarland's probably going to be the number two bolage is there.

917
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:11,000
Speaker 2: But I mean it's they drafted Harris to be at workhorse,

918
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 2: so you can't, in my opinion, you can't really go

919
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 2: wrong with either of them. You do have to pay

920
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 2: a higher premium for Harris, so I do see the

921
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 2: point of waiting and getting Robinson a little bit later,

922
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 2: all right, let's go to my second running back prop,

923
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,959
Speaker 2: and I'm going Saquon under one thousand and seventy five

924
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 2: rushing yards at prize picks.

925
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 3: And for me, when.

926
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 2: We've talked about this ad nauseum, there's issues for me

927
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 2: with Saquon not just in the availability, but even if

928
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 2: he's out there also the efficiency because this offensive line

929
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 2: ranked deadwast by Pro Football Focus entering the season. They

930
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 2: dealt with some guys retiring. No one you know, if

931
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 2: you pay attention to the camp reports, no one's really improved.

932
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 2: They're taking a big step forward, none of the young guys.

933
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 2: So I worry about this offensive line and that we

934
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 2: might get, you know, some of those games that like

935
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 2: only Sakon Barkley can has really giving you over the

936
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 2: past couple years, like thirteen for one or eight for ten.

937
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 2: I mean that's not a knock on him, it's just

938
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 2: the old line sometimes for the Giants just you know,

939
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 2: it can come and go. You know, they did well

940
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 2: at some points last year. Wayne Goldman was a decent

941
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 2: had some decent value. But you know, you combine the

942
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 2: health risks with the low floor efficiency wise, and I

943
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 2: think Barkley is gonna he probably can't miss more than

944
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 2: than one or two games to hit this number, and

945
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 2: he has to be pretty efficient, like you know, for

946
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 2: six four seven yards per carry, I have him at

947
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 2: four to three. You know, yards per carries is one

948
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 2: of those stats that regresses a lot. It's hard, you know,

949
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 2: even if you have a guy with a high yards

950
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 2: per carry, that doesn't mean it's gonna be that going forward.

951
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 2: So I think think there are a lot of outs

952
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 2: for Saquon to go under one thousan seventy five yards.

953
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 3: Haveing about one hundred short this year.

954
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 1: Love it. I was able to get this on Prize

955
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,399
Speaker 1: Picks when it was twelve hundred, just like a week ago.

956
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: So I think the market's catching up. Like we've been

957
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: banging the drum that you know, he's not going to

958
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 1: enter the season hundred percent. He's been pretty inefficient even

959
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: when he has been healthy. Again, all the blame can

960
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: be put on the offensive lying Jason Garrett, whatever wherever

961
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: you want to put the blame, but he has a

962
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 1: lot of things going against him. That's why I agree

963
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 1: with you completely. And I'm going to piggyback this and

964
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,879
Speaker 1: say I also love the under nine and a half

965
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns for a lot of the same reasons. But

966
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,879
Speaker 1: you know he's going to have to rely on these

967
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,919
Speaker 1: long touchdown runs, which aren't really sticky. If there's any

968
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 1: running back that can, you know, score a bunch of

969
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: long touchdowns, it's Saquon Barkley. But again, I do like

970
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 1: banking against that. And you know this, this Giants offense

971
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 1: isn't really capable of fighting him with a ton of

972
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 1: goal line work. And actually, if you look at his career,

973
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 1: he hasn't been a good goal line back, which kind

974
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: of makes sense because he's sort of a home run hitter.

975
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 1: He's kind of a high ceiling, low floor kind of runner,

976
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 1: so around the goal line he struggled. He's He's scored

977
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 1: seven touchdowns on twenty seven rush attempts inside the five.

978
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 1: That's a twenty six percent rate. Now, granted, you expect

979
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,760
Speaker 1: running backs to address closer to the forty two percent average,

980
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 1: and Saquon Barkley is an above run average running back,

981
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 1: but still, his running style isn't really conducive to, you know,

982
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 1: goal line situations. So that's why I think taking the

983
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 1: under for his rushing touchdowns is also a good bet,

984
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 1: because again, you're banking on him, you know, scoring a

985
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,160
Speaker 1: ton of long touchdowns to hit the over. So that's

986
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 1: why all I go in against this.

987
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 2: Giants averaged seventeen and a half points per game last year,

988
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: second to last in the league, so there just might

989
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 2: not be that many touchdowns to go around. I think

990
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 2: they'll be improved with Barkley back in the lineup and

991
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:59,240
Speaker 2: some of the you know, assuming Gallady can get healthy,

992
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 2: should be improved. But the old line is still going

993
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,280
Speaker 2: to be an issue. Daniel Jones hasn't really proven himself

994
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 2: as a consistent guy that's going to be able to

995
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 2: score you you know, twenty four twenty seven points weekend

996
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 2: week out, So you know, even if Barkley is healthy,

997
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,919
Speaker 2: you could have a situation where he falls short.

998
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 3: Of this number. So I like it.

999
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 2: I have it. I have it closer to seven so

1000
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 2: on two hundred and thirty one carries, So it's not

1001
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 2: like I don't I'm not giving them carries.

1002
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 3: But yeah, I.

1003
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 2: Think I think these the touchdown numbers. It's easy to

1004
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 2: kind of get caught up in the name, but at

1005
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 2: the end of the day, and again, there was a

1006
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 2: record high in terms of rushing touchdowns last year, so

1007
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 2: if that regresses closer to the mean.

1008
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:47,399
Speaker 3: You also could see a drop.

1009
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 2: I mean, there was one point oh rushing touchdowns per

1010
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 2: game last year. That's the first time that happened since

1011
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty.

1012
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 3: Five, you know what I mean.

1013
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: Like, that's that we'll keep up, maybe but maybe not.

1014
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 2: And then I feel like that's kind of factored into

1015
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 2: this projection at nine and a half, that's that's high

1016
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 2: for me, Like, that's that's very high.

1017
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 3: So I like that under as well. So Faden Saquon.

1018
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 2: We're still fading Saquon on this pod, as we've been

1019
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: doing all offseason long on the Fantasy Flex. All right,

1020
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 2: So my next one is going to be another very

1021
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:32,120
Speaker 2: good running back that I think the number is just

1022
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:34,319
Speaker 2: so high that it gives you some outs, and that's

1023
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 2: Nick Chubb. Under one three hundred and fifty rushing yards.

1024
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 2: That is just a huge number to hit. And if

1025
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: anything happens, like for example, last year Chubb missed four games,

1026
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,800
Speaker 2: you're not going to hit that total. Because again, yards

1027
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 2: per carry, it takes almost two thousand carries for career

1028
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:58,839
Speaker 2: yards per carry to stableiz. Nick Chubb is at six

1029
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty for his career and he's averaging five

1030
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:05,920
Speaker 2: point two yards per attempt, So that is very very good,

1031
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 2: but we can't expect him to necessarily even and I

1032
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 2: know they have a great offensive line, probably the best

1033
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 2: in the league, but still that's how unpredictable yards per

1034
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 2: carry is. There's a lot of variants there, so I

1035
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 2: point two is not what I haven't projected for. I

1036
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 2: have him closer to four point seven four point eight,

1037
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 2: which is still I think the highest for any running

1038
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 2: back in my model.

1039
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 3: So it still loves Nick Chubb.

1040
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 2: But for him to do that, he's gonna he's gonna

1041
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 2: have to pretty much not miss a game and continue

1042
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 2: his crazy efficiency numbers. I just think there's a lot

1043
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 2: of outs, and you still have Kareem Hunt here, so

1044
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 2: you never know what could happen in any give me

1045
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 2: a game. Maybe the Browns are, you know, winning a

1046
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 2: little bit, and they end up using Hunt a little

1047
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,239
Speaker 2: more to spell Chubb because they want to keep him

1048
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:56,280
Speaker 2: healthy for the playoffs.

1049
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 3: He's out.

1050
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 2: He averaged fifteen point eight carries per game last year,

1051
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 2: so that I mean for one thousand, three hundred and

1052
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 2: fifty yards, you're gonna need that five you know, mid

1053
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:08,439
Speaker 2: five efficiency, and I just don't think you can bank

1054
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 2: on that and at the same time bank on him

1055
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:13,400
Speaker 2: to do that and stay healthy for a full season.

1056
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 2: So going under the one thousand and three fifty four

1057
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:16,880
Speaker 2: Nick Chubb.

1058
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously your analysis is sharp there, but I

1059
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 1: can't go against my boy. I just can't do it,

1060
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:25,919
Speaker 1: especially when it comes to rushing yards. So I'm gonna

1061
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,839
Speaker 1: stay away from this one. But again, really sound analysis,

1062
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: but I do have him still projected to rush for

1063
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 1: over like five point three yards per carric yeah, five

1064
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 1: point two yards per carry. I mean, if you just

1065
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: look at next Gen stats, you know they track expected

1066
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:46,400
Speaker 1: yards per carry, factory and all the different you know,

1067
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 1: like things where the linemen are, where the defenders are,

1068
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 1: and he's number one almost every season, so I think

1069
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,200
Speaker 1: you will keep it up and the offensive line might

1070
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 1: be even better this year. There's just a lot of

1071
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:58,720
Speaker 1: reasons to like Nick Chubb. You brought up a good point,

1072
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 1: like he's he's missed time and Cream Hunt obviously is

1073
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 1: a threat. So there's some outs for the under. I

1074
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 1: just can't bring myself to do it personally, I get it.

1075
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 2: I feel like this is not going to be a

1076
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: popular one even among the listeners because again, you see

1077
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,439
Speaker 2: some of these big names and you know, good back,

1078
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 2: good old line. You're like, all right, I'm not betting

1079
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 2: the under, but a lot of times these are the

1080
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:21,239
Speaker 2: ones with the most value because so much has to

1081
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 2: go right for a guy to get over one three

1082
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:26,239
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty rushing yards, to the point where if

1083
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 2: you like him to do that again, I think there

1084
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:32,080
Speaker 2: are other ways to kind of attack you know, Nick

1085
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 2: Chubb this season than just going over.

1086
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:38,319
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm going under, all right. Next up, I'm

1087
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:42,359
Speaker 1: taking running back. I love, but AJ Dillon under six

1088
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety rushing yards. This is one of those

1089
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,399
Speaker 1: things where I haven't projected pretty close to this, but

1090
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 1: he has a wide range of outcomes. I mean, are

1091
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:55,839
Speaker 1: there scenarios where Aaron Jones misses ten plus games and

1092
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:59,720
Speaker 1: or AJ Dillon breaks out for a thousand yard rushing season.

1093
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 1: Of course, I'm kind of banking on that in some

1094
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 1: of my leagues that you know, Dylan will hit his

1095
00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 1: ceiling this year. I think he's crazy talented. But you know,

1096
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:13,320
Speaker 1: the most likely situation is Aaron Jones plays in fifteen

1097
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 1: or sixteen games and AJ Dillon finishes under rushing for

1098
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 1: around six hundred yards I think so in order to

1099
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 1: go over this, I think he's gonna have to average

1100
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 1: over ten carries a game, and I just don't know

1101
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 1: if we could project that quite yet. And I know

1102
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 1: that they want to get him involved in the passing game.

1103
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 1: You know, they did lose Jamal Williams and they want

1104
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 1: Dylan to get more involved in the passing game. So

1105
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to be just you know,

1106
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: the change of pace back on the ground. I think

1107
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:41,399
Speaker 1: they will get him involved in that. But I think

1108
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:43,759
Speaker 1: this is Aaron Jones backfield still. I think he's going

1109
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 1: to dominate the touches. He could, you know, have a

1110
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,759
Speaker 1: career year. So I think that that that's going to

1111
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 1: limit AJ Dillon. Six hundred nineties pretty high for a backup. Again,

1112
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 1: he does have a high ceiling because if Aaron Jones

1113
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 1: misses time, he's going over this number. But I think

1114
00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:00,879
Speaker 1: we can bet against Aaron Jones missing you know, more

1115
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 1: than three games. That's why I think the median is

1116
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:05,800
Speaker 1: lower than this. I think it'd be around six hundred.

1117
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 2: So that's why I do like this under yeah, I

1118
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:11,239
Speaker 2: have him at six twelve and on one hundred and

1119
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 2: thirty nine carries.

1120
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 3: So I'm right with you.

1121
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 2: I'm about what sixty yards under, you're about seventy. Oh no,

1122
00:56:18,040 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 2: you're about I'm about seventy five yards under, you're about

1123
00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 2: eighty five. So yeah, it's uh, you know, the median

1124
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: outcome is short of this number, and that's what you're

1125
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 2: looking for when you make your prize pick entries or

1126
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 2: you know, enter your props. So yeah, I like the dealing.

1127
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:40,360
Speaker 2: Under think he has huge upside, but you can attack

1128
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:43,360
Speaker 2: that in different ways because you can draft him in fantasy.

1129
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 2: You can especially in like you know, Bestball Format zero

1130
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 2: RB or Hero RB like strategies like there's a lot

1131
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 2: of ways to attack ad Dellon's upside. But median outcome

1132
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 2: still think six hundred ninety yards is too high. So

1133
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 2: I agree my last one, I'm going for running backs.

1134
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 2: For my last one for running backs, I am going

1135
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 2: Daryl Henderson under eight hundred and fifty rushing yards. He

1136
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 2: would need to average over fifty yards a game if

1137
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: he played all seventeen games to hit that number. He's

1138
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 2: never averaged more than forty two in a season. And

1139
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 2: with the Sony Michelle acquisition, there's a lot of uncertainty here.

1140
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 2: And also again that you know, he would need to

1141
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 2: average over fifty in a you know, playing every game.

1142
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 2: If he misses the one to two games that running

1143
00:57:31,600 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 2: backs normally miss, that's going to go up. And we

1144
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:38,120
Speaker 2: just don't know exactly how many carries Henderson's going to

1145
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:40,800
Speaker 2: get on a weekly basis. And uh, you know, I

1146
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 2: always like betting against guys setting career highs. That's one

1147
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:49,000
Speaker 2: of the ways that I kind of attack these markets,

1148
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 2: especially went in doubt or you know, I just like, okay,

1149
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 2: is this Am I going to bet on a guy

1150
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 2: to go over something to hit his career higher? Am

1151
00:57:56,120 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 2: I just going to bet on the under? And have

1152
00:57:57,880 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 2: all these different outs? And I think the Rams could

1153
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 2: be a little more pass happy because you have Matthew

1154
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 2: Stafford in a loaded receiving corps this year, So just

1155
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 2: a lot of different ways, and Henderson made you know,

1156
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 2: he's probably going to be more of the receiving back

1157
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,919
Speaker 2: now because Michelle hasn't really played that role.

1158
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 3: So there's a non.

1159
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 2: Zero chance that both of those guys could stay healthy

1160
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 2: and Michelle could even end up with more carries. Maybe

1161
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 2: not a ton more, but he could a you know,

1162
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 2: it could be kind of split with Henderson getting the

1163
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 2: bulkal the receiving usage. So just a lot of ways

1164
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 2: I think to go under this number, not even accounting for,

1165
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 2: you know, the workload, because Henderson he's never really been

1166
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 2: a high workload guy in college or in the in

1167
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:42,720
Speaker 2: the pro. So under eight hundred and fifty rushing yards

1168
00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 2: for Darryl Henderson of the Rams.

1169
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:48,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love this one as well. And you know,

1170
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:51,440
Speaker 1: I agree with you when it comes to against guys

1171
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 1: setting career highs, but it does make it tougher knowing

1172
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 1: there's an extra game this year.

1173
00:58:56,680 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, oh yeah, after that end.

1174
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 1: But I think that the Sony Michelle edition definitely adds uncertainty.

1175
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 1: It lowers Henderson's floor end ceiling quite a bit, especially

1176
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: in the running game. Like you said, like Michelle's gonna

1177
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 1: eat into his you know, his carries, not his reception.

1178
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 1: So that's why I love the under eight fifty as well.

1179
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:18,000
Speaker 2: All right, so that those are our running back props,

1180
00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 2: Let's move on to the receiver wide receivers and tight ends.

1181
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 2: Who got first for wide out tight ends jump?

1182
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:28,680
Speaker 1: So this is the only one that isn't fun in

1183
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:30,760
Speaker 1: my opinion, because I do want him to have a

1184
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:35,000
Speaker 1: good rookie season. But that's under on Jamar Chase one

1185
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 1: twenty five or Sydney Yards.

1186
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 3: I had to do it.

1187
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:42,280
Speaker 1: But you know, there have been forty wide receivers drafted

1188
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:44,919
Speaker 1: in the first round over the past decade, and only

1189
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 1: five of them have gone over this number. Granted we

1190
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 1: play an extra game this year. I know that, but

1191
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:54,160
Speaker 1: you know, and Chase is obviously considered a top prospect,

1192
00:59:55,400 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 1: there's no denying that. But you know, he did sit

1193
00:59:57,640 --> 00:59:59,959
Speaker 1: out last season, and he has been rusty in camp.

1194
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:02,400
Speaker 1: So it is Joe Burrow. Joe Brow has been rusty.

1195
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:04,160
Speaker 1: They haven't been able to get on the same page.

1196
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase has dropped four straight passes in the preseason. Again,

1197
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 1: I'm not overacting the preseason, but I would love to

1198
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 1: see him, you know, giving more confidence going in a

1199
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 1: week one. So I think he could get off to

1200
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 1: slow start, but you know, he he does have competition too,

1201
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 1: T Higgins, I know you love T Higgins. Yep, he's

1202
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 1: going to have a year two breakout. They have Tyler Boyd,

1203
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 1: c j Uzoma. Apparently the coach wants to get him over.

1204
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:32,080
Speaker 3: Fifty or so. You just stopped after Boyd.

1205
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I don't think any of those tight ends

1206
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 1: are in a factor until That's what I thought the

1207
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:40,320
Speaker 1: coach is saying that. But I think he has so

1208
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 1: much competition. He's not your typical first round pick that

1209
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 1: goes a situation where there's nobody there. That's what I'm

1210
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 1: getting a he does have competition, so he's going to

1211
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 1: need a lot to go right to go over this.

1212
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 1: And again we talked about outs. I mean, if Joe

1213
01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 1: Burrow were to miss any time, he's going to go

1214
01:00:57,080 --> 01:01:00,440
Speaker 1: under this as well, because Brandon Allen can't support Higgins,

1215
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd and Jabar Chase at the same time. So

1216
01:01:03,480 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 1: there's a lot of different angles here. Again, I think

1217
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 1: Chase by the end of the season, I think he's

1218
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:10,400
Speaker 1: going to be that wide receiver to talent that we

1219
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:12,720
Speaker 1: know like he's going to finish strung. But I think

1220
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:15,520
Speaker 1: the slow start that I'm expecting, I think is going

1221
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:17,680
Speaker 1: to help us stay under this pace. So I do

1222
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 1: like the under ony twenty five receiving yards.

1223
01:01:21,240 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again I like what you said about just

1224
01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 2: looking back at first round picks and the median outcome

1225
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 2: because it's very instructive because you're comparing them directly to guys,

1226
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,240
Speaker 2: you know, with a similar draft pedigree, with similar talent,

1227
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 2: and you know, not all these guys smash in year one.

1228
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,800
Speaker 2: We remember the guys that do. We remember the Justin Jeffersons,

1229
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:44,360
Speaker 2: We remember the Odell Beckhams.

1230
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 3: We remember those guys.

1231
01:01:45,880 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 2: But there are a lot of guys that have decent

1232
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:52,840
Speaker 2: to good seasons and they'll fall short of these big

1233
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 2: numbers that are out there for some of these rookies.

1234
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 2: You know, I think in general, rookie numbers have been

1235
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:01,600
Speaker 2: a little inflated across the board here, So I like

1236
01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 2: that under as well. I'm going with Denzel Mims under

1237
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 2: five hundred and fifty receiving yards. Look, he's behind Corey Davis,

1238
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 2: Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder is going to play in the slot.

1239
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 2: Kew and Cole can play any receiver position. Mims is

1240
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 2: behind four guys at least on the depth chart. This

1241
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 2: is a guy who was not drafted by this regime.

1242
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:30,520
Speaker 2: He was drafted by Adam Gase. So will he average

1243
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 2: forty receiving yards a game this year like he did

1244
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:37,400
Speaker 2: last year in nine games? I doubt it because he

1245
01:02:37,440 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 2: started eight games last year, So this year, I don't

1246
01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:42,960
Speaker 2: know if he starts at all, just given the New

1247
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 2: York Jets depth chart, because even he has to separate

1248
01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:50,600
Speaker 2: from Keywan Cole just to become the fourth receiver, and

1249
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:53,880
Speaker 2: he was running with the third team, third string team

1250
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:55,600
Speaker 2: at one point in camp. Now, I think that had

1251
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:58,000
Speaker 2: to do with he was going through some weight loss issues.

1252
01:02:58,000 --> 01:02:58,760
Speaker 3: I believe it was.

1253
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 2: So I don't think that was like, I think he's

1254
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:04,360
Speaker 2: more talented than that. But this Jets receiving corps is

1255
01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:07,840
Speaker 2: crowded and there are just a lot of guys ahead

1256
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 2: of him for targets and five hundred and fifty yards.

1257
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 2: You know, that's that's not anything to sneeze that. You're

1258
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:17,480
Speaker 2: still gonna have to play as more than the you know,

1259
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 2: the fourth fifth receiver usually to get that many to

1260
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 2: get that many receiving yards. So I think Mems comes

1261
01:03:23,680 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 2: up short of this, and you know he's he had

1262
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 2: you know, he played in nine games last year. He

1263
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 2: had some injury, some issues earlier in camp, so he

1264
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:33,960
Speaker 2: also may not stay healthy.

1265
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:36,200
Speaker 3: We don't know he'll do that either. So like the

1266
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:38,120
Speaker 3: under Mims five hundred.

1267
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,440
Speaker 1: And fifty, Yeah, I hate that this is such a

1268
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:43,880
Speaker 1: sharp play because I think, you know, Mems he's so talented,

1269
01:03:43,920 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 1: but this is a regime that took him. So I

1270
01:03:46,600 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 1: mean not to root against your prop here, but imagine

1271
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:51,760
Speaker 1: if he were to get traded to like the Chiefs

1272
01:03:51,840 --> 01:03:54,720
Speaker 1: or the Saints or something, some other team that will

1273
01:03:54,760 --> 01:03:57,120
Speaker 1: start him. You know, I'd love to see that because

1274
01:03:57,160 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 1: he I think he is really talented. I think he

1275
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:01,600
Speaker 1: could be a good starting receiver, but I don't think

1276
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:03,840
Speaker 1: it's happening this year. Like you said, he's sort of

1277
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 1: a second third teamer unfortunately. So yeah, under five hundred

1278
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:09,200
Speaker 1: and fifty yards, a lot of things are gonna have

1279
01:04:09,240 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 1: to go his way to go over this.

1280
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:15,320
Speaker 3: Who got up next? So I'm taking.

1281
01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:18,880
Speaker 1: Darnell Mooney over seven hundred and five receiving yards. I

1282
01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:21,840
Speaker 1: think we're going to see a year two breakout for him.

1283
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:24,440
Speaker 1: You know, he managed to put up six hundred and

1284
01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 1: thirty one yards last year despite poor quarterback play, and

1285
01:04:29,120 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 1: he's very capable of being a deep threat, and that

1286
01:04:31,960 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 1: that really wasn't unlocked last year at all. He had

1287
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 1: twenty seven targets of over twenty air yards last year,

1288
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:44,080
Speaker 1: which ranked tenth in the league, and only six of

1289
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:46,360
Speaker 1: those targets were catchable. So if you look at all

1290
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 1: the receivers that had ten or more targets of over

1291
01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:53,960
Speaker 1: twenty yards, he had the second worst catchable ball rate,

1292
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 1: so I think it's needless to say. If he has

1293
01:04:56,160 --> 01:04:59,280
Speaker 1: improved quarterback play, which I think they will have with

1294
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:01,840
Speaker 1: justin fields this year, I think they're going to unlock

1295
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 1: that deep potential that he does have. So it doesn't

1296
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:07,600
Speaker 1: he doesn't have to do much to exceed last year's numbers,

1297
01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 1: but I think he's gonna crush those. I haven't projected

1298
01:05:10,040 --> 01:05:13,480
Speaker 1: over eight hundred yards. So I love this over here,

1299
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:16,520
Speaker 1: especially after you know the trade away Anthony Miller. The

1300
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 1: number three receiver is sort of up in the air

1301
01:05:19,240 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 1: between Marquise Goodwin or Demir Bird Like, there's not much

1302
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 1: competition aside from Alan Robinson, and honestly, Alan Robinson's going

1303
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:29,600
Speaker 1: to draw double teams. I think it's just going to

1304
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:33,360
Speaker 1: unlock Mooney even more so. I love betting on Mooney

1305
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:35,400
Speaker 1: having year two breakout this year. That's why I love

1306
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:37,920
Speaker 1: the over seven hundred and five receiving yards.

1307
01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him at sixty six for seven sixty two,

1308
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:44,240
Speaker 2: so I'm about sixty yards over as well.

1309
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 3: I do like Mooney.

1310
01:05:45,960 --> 01:05:49,600
Speaker 2: He was constantly breaking open last year deep and they

1311
01:05:49,600 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 2: couldn't really find him. He'll do something close to the

1312
01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:55,760
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage as well. They'll need him to. But yeah,

1313
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 2: he definitely has upside with that deep ball. And you

1314
01:05:58,960 --> 01:06:00,840
Speaker 2: talked about the number three receiver. You know it's a

1315
01:06:00,920 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 2: dark horse for that role, Rodney Adams. Rodney Adams has

1316
01:06:03,840 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 2: been killing in the preseason. Uh. I mean you talk

1317
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 2: like Marky's Goodwin, demere Bird. Those guys aren't exactly you know, entrenched.

1318
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:16,440
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be surprised to see Adams be got

1319
01:06:16,520 --> 01:06:16,960
Speaker 2: number three.

1320
01:06:17,120 --> 01:06:18,800
Speaker 1: They're probably just going to row a lot more too.

1321
01:06:18,840 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 1: Tight end sets right with Comet and.

1322
01:06:20,600 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 2: Graham, I mean we think, but who knows, man, I mean,

1323
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 2: is that really what like, I don't know if that's

1324
01:06:29,680 --> 01:06:33,760
Speaker 2: better than just having like any like somebody. Yeah, somebody

1325
01:06:33,800 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 2: going deeper downfield because you got to open things up

1326
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:39,000
Speaker 2: a little bit. You know, you got Robinson, you got

1327
01:06:39,320 --> 01:06:41,200
Speaker 2: I got I think that clogs.

1328
01:06:40,880 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 1: Up the field.

1329
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 2: I mean, Jimmy Graham did have eight touchdowns last year,

1330
01:06:43,880 --> 01:06:46,320
Speaker 2: so who knows? Who knows what the Bears are thinking?

1331
01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 2: But remember last year when they got all those tight ends.

1332
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:50,320
Speaker 2: I got one point and then they ended up cutting

1333
01:06:50,320 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 2: like all of them, so they do love their tight ends,

1334
01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 2: so I would yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. I mean

1335
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 2: they got Jesse James there now.

1336
01:06:57,360 --> 01:06:59,800
Speaker 1: So I think either way, I think Mooney is a

1337
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:04,440
Speaker 1: lot for ninety routes run per dropback, I would say, yeah,

1338
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:06,640
Speaker 1: no matter how this sorts out, he's going to be

1339
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:07,160
Speaker 1: on the field.

1340
01:07:07,640 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what he was doing down a stretch. Yeah,

1341
01:07:10,160 --> 01:07:10,400
Speaker 3: you know.

1342
01:07:10,640 --> 01:07:14,560
Speaker 2: And Anthony Miller, a guy who's established, is gone. So yeah,

1343
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:17,880
Speaker 2: whoever's that third receiver is gonna I think lag behind

1344
01:07:17,960 --> 01:07:20,400
Speaker 2: and be situational. But the moon he should be on

1345
01:07:20,440 --> 01:07:24,520
Speaker 2: the field pretty much every snap. For my second receiving prop,

1346
01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:28,240
Speaker 2: I'm going with Blake Jarwin. So five hundred and twenty

1347
01:07:28,320 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 2: five receiving yards is the line at prize pick, so

1348
01:07:32,160 --> 01:07:36,120
Speaker 2: I love putting the under Jarwin in an entry. He

1349
01:07:36,160 --> 01:07:38,919
Speaker 2: would need to average about thirty one yards per game

1350
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:41,880
Speaker 2: to you know, play off seventeen to go over that.

1351
01:07:41,920 --> 01:07:43,960
Speaker 2: He's never averaged more than twenty three in his career.

1352
01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:48,240
Speaker 2: And in the Cowboys preseason tuneup Dalton Schultz, who remember

1353
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 2: had a pretty good year. Once Jarvin went down, Schultz

1354
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:55,240
Speaker 2: actually out snapped Jarwin twelve to ten in that tune up,

1355
01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:58,080
Speaker 2: I have them running pretty much the same amount of

1356
01:07:58,160 --> 01:08:01,720
Speaker 2: routes this season, and it's hard to know right now

1357
01:08:02,200 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 2: who will run more. I you know, there's just been

1358
01:08:05,000 --> 01:08:07,200
Speaker 2: no indication that Jarwin's going to step back in and

1359
01:08:07,240 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 2: get that starting role all to himself, especially after Schultz

1360
01:08:10,800 --> 01:08:13,960
Speaker 2: played well last year and he you know, he is

1361
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 2: coming off the well is an acl right, Yeah, yeah,

1362
01:08:17,840 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 2: he is coming off of a cl bigger guy, so uh,

1363
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:23,439
Speaker 2: you know there could be a slow start here, and

1364
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:25,759
Speaker 2: you know, also don't know about the hell so another

1365
01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:29,240
Speaker 2: guy who would be setting a career high if he

1366
01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:32,599
Speaker 2: went over that five twenty five high, like going under,

1367
01:08:32,720 --> 01:08:34,599
Speaker 2: I don't and I just don't think the Cowboys tight

1368
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:37,000
Speaker 2: ends are you know, they're going to be the fifth

1369
01:08:37,040 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 2: target of the five on the field at any given

1370
01:08:39,160 --> 01:08:40,000
Speaker 2: point for Dallas.

1371
01:08:40,040 --> 01:08:42,800
Speaker 3: So like the under Jarwin five twenty five.

1372
01:08:43,240 --> 01:08:45,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I love that call because you know, Jarwin

1373
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:48,200
Speaker 1: probably has the most upside of the two tight ends.

1374
01:08:48,200 --> 01:08:51,160
Speaker 1: But I think people are under estimating how much of

1375
01:08:51,200 --> 01:08:53,360
Speaker 1: a you know, tight end time share this is going

1376
01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:55,760
Speaker 1: to be. I think Schultz really proved last year that

1377
01:08:56,280 --> 01:08:58,680
Speaker 1: you know, he's he's a pretty good pass catching tight end,

1378
01:08:58,720 --> 01:09:00,640
Speaker 1: so they'll see what they have and him this year.

1379
01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 1: I think they splitting, especially out of the gate. You know,

1380
01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 1: like you said, Jarwin's coming off an ACL injury, so

1381
01:09:05,400 --> 01:09:06,880
Speaker 1: at least out of the gate, it's going to be

1382
01:09:06,920 --> 01:09:08,679
Speaker 1: more of a fifty to fifty split and that could

1383
01:09:08,720 --> 01:09:10,720
Speaker 1: get you know, him on a rate where he's going

1384
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:12,479
Speaker 1: to really have to go off later in the season

1385
01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:14,800
Speaker 1: to go over this number. So I love this call

1386
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:15,160
Speaker 1: as well.

1387
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:18,719
Speaker 2: And wasn't Schultz always the better blockers, So the fact

1388
01:09:18,760 --> 01:09:19,680
Speaker 2: that he showed well what.

1389
01:09:19,800 --> 01:09:22,080
Speaker 3: Schultz used to just be that third tight end and

1390
01:09:22,160 --> 01:09:23,400
Speaker 3: like the blocking guy.

1391
01:09:23,479 --> 01:09:26,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, but the fact that he showed well in receiving,

1392
01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:29,639
Speaker 2: you could keep Jarwin in that same kind of role.

1393
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 2: He was almost with Jason Whitten, you know, maybe a

1394
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:34,080
Speaker 2: little more than that, but you know, Jaron was kind

1395
01:09:34,080 --> 01:09:36,439
Speaker 2: of that receiving tight end that you would throw out

1396
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:38,560
Speaker 2: there on certain certain types of situations.

1397
01:09:38,560 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think I think he's going to be

1398
01:09:40,040 --> 01:09:40,960
Speaker 3: situational and.

1399
01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:43,799
Speaker 1: Like like you said, they're competing with you know, Amari Cooper,

1400
01:09:43,880 --> 01:09:47,479
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb, and Michael Gallup, so the targets between the

1401
01:09:47,479 --> 01:09:49,000
Speaker 1: two are going to be few and far between.

1402
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:50,880
Speaker 3: Yep, all right, who you got next?

1403
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:54,240
Speaker 1: I'm going with Kadarius Tony under five hundred and five

1404
01:09:54,280 --> 01:09:58,639
Speaker 1: receiving yards. You know, he hasn't really gotten in much

1405
01:09:58,680 --> 01:10:01,280
Speaker 1: work at all in camp, which which is a bad

1406
01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:04,160
Speaker 1: start because he's the type player that will need to

1407
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:06,360
Speaker 1: be schemed up in order to go over this number.

1408
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:09,040
Speaker 1: He's he should be a pretty low ad kind of

1409
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:10,800
Speaker 1: player right around the line of scrimmage. He's gonna be

1410
01:10:10,880 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 1: dangerous with the ball in his hands. So he's the

1411
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 1: type of player that you kind of want to get

1412
01:10:15,240 --> 01:10:18,759
Speaker 1: integrated in the offense. It's unclear if offensive corner Jason

1413
01:10:18,760 --> 01:10:20,920
Speaker 1: Garrett's talented enough to kind of figure out how to

1414
01:10:21,000 --> 01:10:24,280
Speaker 1: unlock a player like Tony, and he could be competing

1415
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:26,479
Speaker 1: with Saquon Barkley for targets, you know, in that kind

1416
01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:29,000
Speaker 1: of around the line of scrimmage area. So I don't

1417
01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:31,320
Speaker 1: like Tony at all. In year one, I think he's

1418
01:10:31,320 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 1: gonna have has a steep learning curve. Maybe a year

1419
01:10:35,000 --> 01:10:37,720
Speaker 1: two he might be integrating the offense a bit more.

1420
01:10:37,760 --> 01:10:40,400
Speaker 1: But five hundred yards for a player like him, he's

1421
01:10:40,439 --> 01:10:42,680
Speaker 1: gonna have to see way more volume than I'm projecting.

1422
01:10:42,760 --> 01:10:45,519
Speaker 1: So I think, you know, I just don't see how

1423
01:10:45,520 --> 01:10:47,599
Speaker 1: he's going to go over this total just give him

1424
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:50,759
Speaker 1: the lack of practice time, the lack of just really

1425
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:52,760
Speaker 1: anything we've seen from him. So that's why I love

1426
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:55,360
Speaker 1: this under five hundred and five receiving yards.

1427
01:10:56,080 --> 01:10:58,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, when we were planning out the pod and the

1428
01:11:00,240 --> 01:11:02,880
Speaker 2: which prize pick lines we were going to take, you know,

1429
01:11:03,400 --> 01:11:06,720
Speaker 2: and enter into these entries and talk about Tony was

1430
01:11:06,720 --> 01:11:08,080
Speaker 2: the guy that I wrote down and I saw that

1431
01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:10,599
Speaker 2: you already had him, I was like, well, I've already

1432
01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:11,200
Speaker 2: bet Tony.

1433
01:11:11,720 --> 01:11:12,200
Speaker 3: I part.

1434
01:11:12,560 --> 01:11:15,639
Speaker 2: I put Tony in an entry with Breshad Perriman under,

1435
01:11:15,720 --> 01:11:20,040
Speaker 2: so I'm hoping that Yeah, so I'm hoping that that's

1436
01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:23,120
Speaker 2: still the Peraman entry is still alive because I have

1437
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:27,519
Speaker 2: him with with Tony both unders for receiving yards, and

1438
01:11:27,840 --> 01:11:31,400
Speaker 2: it's a little similar to Mims in that he's definitely

1439
01:11:31,400 --> 01:11:34,080
Speaker 2: going to be on the second string. The plan was

1440
01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:37,000
Speaker 2: to bring him along slow all along, and then that

1441
01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:39,680
Speaker 2: was exacerbated by the fact that he hasn't really been

1442
01:11:39,720 --> 01:11:44,160
Speaker 2: healthy in the in the preseason either, so he hasn't

1443
01:11:44,200 --> 01:11:47,600
Speaker 2: gotten much time to practice, hasn't got many reps, you know,

1444
01:11:47,680 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 2: first round picks, you know, high, pretty high draft pick.

1445
01:11:51,400 --> 01:11:55,880
Speaker 2: There is some some upside here, but median wise, it's

1446
01:11:55,880 --> 01:11:58,400
Speaker 2: going to take a lot for him to get over

1447
01:11:58,439 --> 01:12:03,360
Speaker 2: five hundred and especially we Kyle rudolph Is is just

1448
01:12:03,920 --> 01:12:06,559
Speaker 2: you know, started getting back into the swing of things.

1449
01:12:06,800 --> 01:12:08,439
Speaker 2: I know the Giants do want to go to more

1450
01:12:08,439 --> 01:12:09,719
Speaker 2: two tight looks this year.

1451
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:11,439
Speaker 3: Evan Ingram is a.

1452
01:12:11,360 --> 01:12:13,240
Speaker 2: Little bit banged up and it got banged up in

1453
01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:15,000
Speaker 2: that preseason game, so we'll see how that goes. But

1454
01:12:16,200 --> 01:12:20,200
Speaker 2: this could be a more of a heavy personnel offense

1455
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:23,200
Speaker 2: than it was in years past, so that also kind

1456
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:26,479
Speaker 2: of limits the amount of on field you know, just

1457
01:12:26,520 --> 01:12:28,880
Speaker 2: snaps that that Tony could get so and he could

1458
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:30,040
Speaker 2: get a lot of his you know, he could get

1459
01:12:30,040 --> 01:12:32,400
Speaker 2: a good amount of his yardage in a run game too,

1460
01:12:32,479 --> 01:12:35,599
Speaker 2: Like he could get decent yardage this year and it

1461
01:12:35,600 --> 01:12:36,320
Speaker 2: doesn't all have.

1462
01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:38,040
Speaker 3: To come through the air.

1463
01:12:38,120 --> 01:12:40,879
Speaker 2: So yeah, Tony was a guy that I had circled

1464
01:12:40,920 --> 01:12:45,519
Speaker 2: as well. For me, I am going with Dallas Goddard

1465
01:12:45,560 --> 01:12:48,400
Speaker 2: for my third one under six hundred and seventy five.

1466
01:12:49,080 --> 01:12:51,880
Speaker 2: So you look at him with Jalen Hurts and he

1467
01:12:51,960 --> 01:12:54,320
Speaker 2: was right around you know that thirty nine to forty

1468
01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:57,400
Speaker 2: three yard per game yards per game and in the

1469
01:12:57,400 --> 01:13:00,880
Speaker 2: three starts with Hurts, but Hurts roof for you know,

1470
01:13:01,000 --> 01:13:03,519
Speaker 2: three fifty plus and two of those starts. And if

1471
01:13:03,560 --> 01:13:07,360
Speaker 2: you look at the percentage of yardage that Goddard got

1472
01:13:07,479 --> 01:13:10,840
Speaker 2: of Hurts his passing yards in Hurts his three starts,

1473
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:13,400
Speaker 2: because Godder didn't play in that season finale when Hurts

1474
01:13:13,400 --> 01:13:17,479
Speaker 2: also got bench got he got just fourteen percent of

1475
01:13:17,760 --> 01:13:21,120
Speaker 2: Jalen hurts yardage share. Now Prize Picks has a Jayalen

1476
01:13:21,200 --> 01:13:24,280
Speaker 2: Hurts passing yardage prop up that's three thousand, six hundred

1477
01:13:24,320 --> 01:13:27,360
Speaker 2: and fifty. So take fourteen percent of that and you're

1478
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 2: at just five hundred and seventeen yards.

1479
01:13:29,479 --> 01:13:33,000
Speaker 3: So again, this Gotter thing is like it's number one.

1480
01:13:33,040 --> 01:13:35,640
Speaker 2: I don't know how like if Hurts is going to

1481
01:13:35,680 --> 01:13:40,479
Speaker 2: be extremely beneficial to you know, to tight ends. That's

1482
01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:42,799
Speaker 2: why I usually buy low on Ertz, who I think

1483
01:13:43,479 --> 01:13:45,320
Speaker 2: will run the same amount of routes or get traded

1484
01:13:45,360 --> 01:13:47,720
Speaker 2: to a team, will he'll be uh, you.

1485
01:13:47,640 --> 01:13:48,799
Speaker 3: Know, a starter.

1486
01:13:49,120 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 2: So I'm kind of fading got her in a lot

1487
01:13:53,080 --> 01:13:55,519
Speaker 2: of different ways. In six seventy five receiving yards, I

1488
01:13:55,560 --> 01:13:58,960
Speaker 2: just think that's too high for a guy that is

1489
01:13:59,000 --> 01:14:02,720
Speaker 2: either going to be sharing the e one snaps or

1490
01:14:02,920 --> 01:14:04,760
Speaker 2: is just going to be on an offense where you know,

1491
01:14:04,800 --> 01:14:06,960
Speaker 2: three hundred three thou six hundred and fifty passing yards

1492
01:14:07,040 --> 01:14:09,439
Speaker 2: is not a high ceiling offense in terms of yardage.

1493
01:14:09,439 --> 01:14:10,560
Speaker 2: You know, Hurts is going to get a lot of

1494
01:14:10,640 --> 01:14:13,439
Speaker 2: yardage on the ground. He likes to throw off skip

1495
01:14:13,439 --> 01:14:15,559
Speaker 2: script plays. I think you've talked about that. He likes

1496
01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:17,799
Speaker 2: to go off script and that usually benefits the outside

1497
01:14:17,840 --> 01:14:21,080
Speaker 2: receivers on the scrambled drill, guys like Smith Rager.

1498
01:14:22,400 --> 01:14:24,040
Speaker 3: Maybe you'll see Qus Watkins.

1499
01:14:24,080 --> 01:14:27,719
Speaker 2: I think you know it was making a real play

1500
01:14:27,760 --> 01:14:30,879
Speaker 2: for more targets in this offense, which you know, receivers

1501
01:14:30,880 --> 01:14:32,600
Speaker 2: were kind of hard to come by at times.

1502
01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 3: For the Eagles last year.

1503
01:14:33,360 --> 01:14:36,200
Speaker 2: So you know, there could just be there's just a

1504
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:39,559
Speaker 2: lot too way too much uncertainty to bet Dallas god

1505
01:14:39,600 --> 01:14:43,040
Speaker 2: Her to to get to uh you know, believe that

1506
01:14:43,080 --> 01:14:44,639
Speaker 2: this would be a career high for him too, right

1507
01:14:45,000 --> 01:14:46,080
Speaker 2: over six seventy five.

1508
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:50,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so not the year. I think last year was

1509
01:14:50,080 --> 01:14:51,400
Speaker 3: the year that got her.

1510
01:14:51,479 --> 01:14:54,639
Speaker 2: And he actually had more yardage two years ago because

1511
01:14:54,640 --> 01:14:56,519
Speaker 2: he played fifteen games last year.

1512
01:14:56,520 --> 01:14:57,320
Speaker 3: He only played eleven.

1513
01:14:57,400 --> 01:15:00,440
Speaker 2: So maybe maybe he's even an injury risk who knows,

1514
01:15:00,520 --> 01:15:03,559
Speaker 2: but yeah, not the year for a Goddard career high

1515
01:15:03,760 --> 01:15:04,479
Speaker 2: in my opinion.

1516
01:15:04,520 --> 01:15:05,960
Speaker 3: So going under six seventy five.

1517
01:15:06,320 --> 01:15:08,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean we're less than two weeks away

1518
01:15:08,680 --> 01:15:11,160
Speaker 1: from the season start and zach Ertz is still an Eagle,

1519
01:15:11,720 --> 01:15:16,120
Speaker 1: So I think this prop has dropped significantly. I think

1520
01:15:16,160 --> 01:15:19,599
Speaker 1: it was like around eight hundred. Oh wow, well ago,

1521
01:15:19,680 --> 01:15:22,599
Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember. But yeah, I mean we already

1522
01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:25,760
Speaker 1: talked about this every day that zach Ertz is still

1523
01:15:25,760 --> 01:15:29,160
Speaker 1: in Philly. I've been lowering Dallas Goddard's projection to where, yeah,

1524
01:15:29,160 --> 01:15:32,240
Speaker 1: it's down around six hundred. Now it seems like Ertz

1525
01:15:32,320 --> 01:15:34,000
Speaker 1: is there to say, like you mentioned, you know, they

1526
01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:37,920
Speaker 1: have other weapons. DeVonta Smith should be the number one

1527
01:15:37,920 --> 01:15:41,240
Speaker 1: target this year. Like I already mentioned Kenth gainwell, they

1528
01:15:41,240 --> 01:15:43,080
Speaker 1: should use him in the passing game. There's just too

1529
01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:45,479
Speaker 1: many targets go around, and this isn't an offense that's

1530
01:15:45,479 --> 01:15:47,400
Speaker 1: going to have a ton of passing gooining me to

1531
01:15:47,400 --> 01:15:49,559
Speaker 1: begin with. So love the Goddard under as well.

1532
01:15:49,880 --> 01:15:52,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm around five fifty fifty one catches, five hundred

1533
01:15:52,520 --> 01:15:55,280
Speaker 2: and fifty two yards, four point one touch.

1534
01:15:55,160 --> 01:15:57,720
Speaker 1: Atown right, and you know, I love Dallas Goddard like

1535
01:15:58,160 --> 01:16:00,920
Speaker 1: I wanted nothing more than Ertz to go somewhere else

1536
01:16:01,160 --> 01:16:03,880
Speaker 1: and have got her unleashed, but unfortunately it doesn't look

1537
01:16:03,920 --> 01:16:04,559
Speaker 1: like it's happening.

1538
01:16:04,840 --> 01:16:07,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's my title eleven. Usually he goes higher than that,

1539
01:16:08,000 --> 01:16:10,200
Speaker 2: so I usually don't get him.

1540
01:16:10,240 --> 01:16:12,160
Speaker 3: But if he falls, I don't. I don't hate it.

1541
01:16:12,160 --> 01:16:14,360
Speaker 2: It's just you know, he's still a top twelve tight

1542
01:16:14,479 --> 01:16:17,080
Speaker 2: end by the ranking, but he's just usually going higher

1543
01:16:17,120 --> 01:16:19,960
Speaker 2: than that. So that's why I'm baiting him for the

1544
01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:23,760
Speaker 2: most part this fantasy draft season. All right, last last

1545
01:16:23,800 --> 01:16:24,479
Speaker 2: receiverment prop?

1546
01:16:24,800 --> 01:16:26,759
Speaker 1: We got, all right, I'm gonna end it with a bang,

1547
01:16:26,840 --> 01:16:28,240
Speaker 1: with an Eric Ebron prop.

1548
01:16:29,840 --> 01:16:31,360
Speaker 3: You mean a drop? A drop?

1549
01:16:31,720 --> 01:16:35,280
Speaker 1: I am taking exactly, I am. That's why I'm taking

1550
01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:37,640
Speaker 1: the under five hundred and a half receiving yards for

1551
01:16:38,040 --> 01:16:41,080
Speaker 1: Eric Ebron. So not only does Ebron have to compete

1552
01:16:41,080 --> 01:16:45,479
Speaker 1: with Deantay Johnson, Chase Claypool, Juju Smith, Schuster, you can

1553
01:16:45,520 --> 01:16:48,839
Speaker 1: throw James Washington in there now, he has to compete

1554
01:16:48,880 --> 01:16:53,759
Speaker 1: with second round rookie Pat Firemouth, also known as Baby Gronk,

1555
01:16:54,280 --> 01:16:57,320
Speaker 1: who has looked talk about overapping the preseason.

1556
01:16:57,479 --> 01:17:00,000
Speaker 3: Just one more guy has looked a maze.

1557
01:17:00,640 --> 01:17:02,920
Speaker 1: I thought he might, you know, break out next year

1558
01:17:03,720 --> 01:17:06,719
Speaker 1: potentially when Ebron's gone, but I think that he's going

1559
01:17:06,760 --> 01:17:09,960
Speaker 1: to factor in this year. So Ebron's you know, probably

1560
01:17:10,000 --> 01:17:12,639
Speaker 1: going to be splitting playing time with the rookie by

1561
01:17:12,640 --> 01:17:14,280
Speaker 1: the end of the season. So that's why I think

1562
01:17:14,280 --> 01:17:17,920
Speaker 1: there's just multiple outs for this under. You already mentioned

1563
01:17:18,000 --> 01:17:21,040
Speaker 1: Eric Ebron has his drop issues, So give me the

1564
01:17:21,160 --> 01:17:23,960
Speaker 1: under five one hundred and a half receiving yards for

1565
01:17:24,040 --> 01:17:24,559
Speaker 1: Ericke Brown.

1566
01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:28,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, because when did Vance McDonald retire.

1567
01:17:28,560 --> 01:17:30,920
Speaker 2: Was it at the it was at the end of

1568
01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:33,639
Speaker 2: the twenty nineteen season or was it like early into

1569
01:17:33,640 --> 01:17:34,320
Speaker 2: twenty twenty.

1570
01:17:34,720 --> 01:17:37,200
Speaker 1: Ooh, I think he. I think he may have started

1571
01:17:37,240 --> 01:17:37,640
Speaker 1: last year.

1572
01:17:37,720 --> 01:17:39,920
Speaker 2: Let me look, I don't think he played it all

1573
01:17:40,000 --> 01:17:45,160
Speaker 2: last year. Maybe did he? Oh yeah no Pittsburgh, Oh

1574
01:17:45,240 --> 01:17:45,960
Speaker 2: yeah he played.

1575
01:17:46,280 --> 01:17:46,559
Speaker 3: Wow.

1576
01:17:46,720 --> 01:17:50,080
Speaker 2: I totally forgot that he played fourteen games. But yeah,

1577
01:17:50,120 --> 01:17:52,599
Speaker 2: so that that's too much. Yeah, that's more to my point.

1578
01:17:52,720 --> 01:17:55,880
Speaker 2: It's like Vance McDonald, like Ebron got lucky last year

1579
01:17:55,920 --> 01:17:58,320
Speaker 2: because Vance McDonald, I think, was supposed to be kind

1580
01:17:58,320 --> 01:18:02,880
Speaker 2: of that platoon guy and he just really wasn't. He

1581
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:06,120
Speaker 2: didn't live up to that expectation, So I think fear

1582
01:18:06,200 --> 01:18:09,760
Speaker 2: Moof could actually be more of a true platoon with

1583
01:18:10,320 --> 01:18:12,800
Speaker 2: Ebron this year, especially if Ebron again he just has

1584
01:18:12,840 --> 01:18:17,000
Speaker 2: these like maddening, maddening drops and it's frustrating for I mean,

1585
01:18:17,000 --> 01:18:19,519
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna go downfield a little bit more.

1586
01:18:19,560 --> 01:18:22,120
Speaker 2: You pointed out Roethlisberger's arm looks a lot better, but

1587
01:18:22,479 --> 01:18:25,080
Speaker 2: the more they're going downfield, that doesn't really benefit the

1588
01:18:25,120 --> 01:18:29,559
Speaker 2: tight end necessarily either. So uh, yeah, Ebron, I have him.

1589
01:18:30,040 --> 01:18:32,919
Speaker 2: I have him not too far under actually, because I'm

1590
01:18:32,960 --> 01:18:36,080
Speaker 2: expecting Pittsburgh to bounce back in terms of the passing yardage,

1591
01:18:36,120 --> 01:18:38,720
Speaker 2: like you said. But yeah, I think there's a very

1592
01:18:38,760 --> 01:18:41,880
Speaker 2: low floor with Ebron this year because he could get

1593
01:18:41,880 --> 01:18:42,800
Speaker 2: straight up overtaken.

1594
01:18:43,240 --> 01:18:46,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, like all the hypes with Kyle Pitts,

1595
01:18:46,240 --> 01:18:48,519
Speaker 1: you know, for good reason for these rookie tight ends,

1596
01:18:48,560 --> 01:18:51,839
Speaker 1: but baby Gronk has looked really good. Any other draft class,

1597
01:18:51,880 --> 01:18:54,200
Speaker 1: like he'd probably have more hype right now. But just

1598
01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:56,719
Speaker 1: I think Kyle Pitts is just absorbing all the hype

1599
01:18:56,800 --> 01:18:59,120
Speaker 1: that we're not hearing as much about him. But you know,

1600
01:18:59,439 --> 01:19:01,960
Speaker 1: firm the two touchdown games, So I think we cats

1601
01:19:01,960 --> 01:19:04,360
Speaker 1: out of the bag, but he just looked so impressive.

1602
01:19:04,680 --> 01:19:07,120
Speaker 1: I'm in camp in preseason that I don't see how

1603
01:19:07,160 --> 01:19:09,479
Speaker 1: they keep him off the field as a rookie. So

1604
01:19:09,520 --> 01:19:11,679
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna come at the expense of Eric Ebron.

1605
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:16,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, Abron, I mean it's it's never pretty was him.

1606
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:19,679
Speaker 2: He had that one big year with Indy with Andrew Luck,

1607
01:19:19,760 --> 01:19:23,040
Speaker 2: but it's usually frustrating with Ebron. So yeah, I like

1608
01:19:23,040 --> 01:19:24,760
Speaker 2: getting ahead of that and getting on the right side

1609
01:19:24,800 --> 01:19:30,839
Speaker 2: of that frustration. I'll close it out with Adam Sewin

1610
01:19:31,280 --> 01:19:35,200
Speaker 2: under nine hundred and ninety receiving yards at prize pick.

1611
01:19:36,320 --> 01:19:39,320
Speaker 2: The Eland's averaging just fifty five receiving yards per game

1612
01:19:39,360 --> 01:19:43,000
Speaker 2: over the last two seasons. He's missed six of thirty

1613
01:19:43,000 --> 01:19:49,080
Speaker 2: two games, so nineteen percent. Minnesota. Remember their pass volume

1614
01:19:49,160 --> 01:19:53,000
Speaker 2: could decrease this year because they almost every year under

1615
01:19:53,000 --> 01:19:55,880
Speaker 2: Mike Zimmer have a top ten defense, and last year

1616
01:19:56,080 --> 01:19:57,920
Speaker 2: they were more middle of the pack. They found them

1617
01:19:58,040 --> 01:20:01,160
Speaker 2: they found themselves in more kind of shootout game scripts,

1618
01:20:01,280 --> 01:20:04,160
Speaker 2: and so I think across the board, you're going to

1619
01:20:04,200 --> 01:20:06,040
Speaker 2: see some regression for this offense.

1620
01:20:06,080 --> 01:20:07,720
Speaker 3: Even for a guy like Justin Jefferson.

1621
01:20:08,320 --> 01:20:10,920
Speaker 2: I don't think he gets to fourteen hundred receiving yards

1622
01:20:10,920 --> 01:20:13,519
Speaker 2: even in seventeen games this year. But Fiewen was a

1623
01:20:13,520 --> 01:20:17,000
Speaker 2: guy in fifteen games, he was at nine hundred and

1624
01:20:17,000 --> 01:20:18,280
Speaker 2: twenty five receiving yards.

1625
01:20:18,320 --> 01:20:20,599
Speaker 3: He'll be thirty one this year.

1626
01:20:21,280 --> 01:20:23,400
Speaker 2: I just think that there's a lot of ways for

1627
01:20:23,479 --> 01:20:25,960
Speaker 2: him to be short of this total. You know, justin

1628
01:20:26,040 --> 01:20:29,920
Speaker 2: Jefferson in year one out targeted d Win, you know,

1629
01:20:29,960 --> 01:20:32,360
Speaker 2: one twenty five to one away. He played one more game,

1630
01:20:32,400 --> 01:20:36,160
Speaker 2: but he got four hundred and seventy five more yards

1631
01:20:36,560 --> 01:20:38,719
Speaker 2: than then, and that was just in year one for Jefferson.

1632
01:20:38,720 --> 01:20:41,960
Speaker 3: So the split could even grow wider. Minnesota could could

1633
01:20:42,360 --> 01:20:42,880
Speaker 3: row less.

1634
01:20:42,880 --> 01:20:45,720
Speaker 2: And also Kirk Cousins I mean, and partly due to

1635
01:20:45,760 --> 01:20:50,200
Speaker 2: Jefferson last year, but kirk Cousins eight point one yards

1636
01:20:50,240 --> 01:20:54,320
Speaker 2: perk pass attempt two years ago, eight point three last year.

1637
01:20:54,439 --> 01:20:57,519
Speaker 2: So it's also you know, will Kirk Cousins continue to

1638
01:20:57,560 --> 01:20:59,959
Speaker 2: average you know, eight plus yards per attempt?

1639
01:21:00,360 --> 01:21:02,800
Speaker 3: Who knows? You know that that could also regress. So

1640
01:21:02,840 --> 01:21:04,360
Speaker 3: there's just a lot of different.

1641
01:21:04,040 --> 01:21:07,240
Speaker 2: Ways that Minnesota could still have a better season than

1642
01:21:07,240 --> 01:21:11,000
Speaker 2: they did last year, and the offensive numbers could go

1643
01:21:11,080 --> 01:21:12,240
Speaker 2: down because they don't need to.

1644
01:21:12,400 --> 01:21:12,960
Speaker 3: They don't need it.

1645
01:21:13,000 --> 01:21:15,160
Speaker 2: They don't need cousins to throw for you know, forty

1646
01:21:15,200 --> 01:21:18,280
Speaker 2: three hundred yards and thirty five touchdowns this year, Well

1647
01:21:18,320 --> 01:21:20,639
Speaker 2: they don't. They probably don't want to need that. If

1648
01:21:20,640 --> 01:21:23,360
Speaker 2: that defense rebounds and it looks it looks better, you know,

1649
01:21:23,400 --> 01:21:26,680
Speaker 2: there's still I think the secondary will be better than

1650
01:21:26,720 --> 01:21:31,200
Speaker 2: it was last year. Still some question marks, but overall

1651
01:21:31,360 --> 01:21:33,720
Speaker 2: I expect Mike Zimmer to get it back to where

1652
01:21:33,720 --> 01:21:34,400
Speaker 2: it's been in the past.

1653
01:21:34,400 --> 01:21:37,320
Speaker 3: So going theman under nine to ninety, Yeah, I.

1654
01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:39,120
Speaker 1: Agree the defense should be much better. And we know

1655
01:21:39,160 --> 01:21:41,599
Speaker 1: the Vikings love to run the shell of the ball

1656
01:21:41,600 --> 01:21:43,960
Speaker 1: when they're they're up, so I agree with that. But

1657
01:21:44,000 --> 01:21:47,200
Speaker 1: are you concern it all with this IRV Smith injury?

1658
01:21:47,240 --> 01:21:50,599
Speaker 1: He's I mean he was potentially out for who could

1659
01:21:50,640 --> 01:21:52,800
Speaker 1: be the whole season, hopefully not, but I mean it

1660
01:21:52,840 --> 01:21:55,639
Speaker 1: could be like the first month, and you know where

1661
01:21:55,720 --> 01:21:57,280
Speaker 1: where do you think those targets are going to go?

1662
01:21:57,439 --> 01:21:59,800
Speaker 1: You think feeling might absorb some of.

1663
01:21:59,760 --> 01:22:01,920
Speaker 2: That, don't because I think the WANs kind of because

1664
01:22:01,960 --> 01:22:05,280
Speaker 2: like I already have Thewen still running ninety percent of

1665
01:22:05,320 --> 01:22:08,840
Speaker 2: the routes per game. I have him missing only one

1666
01:22:08,880 --> 01:22:11,880
Speaker 2: game like a normal receiver, and I still have him

1667
01:22:11,960 --> 01:22:14,160
Speaker 2: fifty yards short of this, you know, or forty yards Shu.

1668
01:22:14,160 --> 01:22:18,040
Speaker 2: I have him at seventy one for nine to fifty,

1669
01:22:18,360 --> 01:22:21,840
Speaker 2: so you know that that tells me, like, and that's

1670
01:22:21,840 --> 01:22:24,240
Speaker 2: a pretty optimistic for Jaman. That means that nothing really

1671
01:22:24,240 --> 01:22:25,439
Speaker 2: is going to go wrong. He's going to miss the

1672
01:22:25,479 --> 01:22:28,240
Speaker 2: Median one game. He's still going to at age thirty

1673
01:22:28,240 --> 01:22:30,720
Speaker 2: one run you know, ninety percent of the you know,

1674
01:22:30,760 --> 01:22:34,439
Speaker 2: be on the field pretty much every snap, so you know,

1675
01:22:34,479 --> 01:22:37,320
Speaker 2: Smith's The thing about Smith was, yes, he was a

1676
01:22:37,320 --> 01:22:39,960
Speaker 2: guy that was in line for a breakout, but his

1677
01:22:40,120 --> 01:22:44,960
Speaker 2: targets per route run is fifteen percent, and you know,

1678
01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:47,200
Speaker 2: so we were kind of expecting him to take a jump,

1679
01:22:47,320 --> 01:22:50,719
Speaker 2: but it's not as if, like in my model, Smith

1680
01:22:50,800 --> 01:22:53,160
Speaker 2: still kind of has that you know, that fifteen percent,

1681
01:22:53,360 --> 01:22:57,639
Speaker 2: like that's his default baseline rate. So he's like him

1682
01:22:57,640 --> 01:23:02,639
Speaker 2: being out doesn't necessarily change change much because Tyler Conklin

1683
01:23:03,000 --> 01:23:06,120
Speaker 2: I have him projected at fourteen percent, so there's really

1684
01:23:06,160 --> 01:23:10,600
Speaker 2: only like a one percent additional target increase that I

1685
01:23:10,720 --> 01:23:14,120
Speaker 2: have anyway, and remember Smith is you know, the starting

1686
01:23:14,120 --> 01:23:15,559
Speaker 2: tight end is also not going to run as many

1687
01:23:15,600 --> 01:23:18,120
Speaker 2: routes because they're gonna block. So I had Smith around

1688
01:23:18,160 --> 01:23:21,000
Speaker 2: seventy two seventy three percent of the routes, whereas the

1689
01:23:21,120 --> 01:23:23,680
Speaker 2: Wan's at ninety. So it's it's not really going to

1690
01:23:23,720 --> 01:23:27,160
Speaker 2: affect it too much, I think, just a little.

1691
01:23:27,240 --> 01:23:30,360
Speaker 1: For me. Yeah, I had IRV Smith's breakout kind of

1692
01:23:30,720 --> 01:23:33,800
Speaker 1: impacting Adam feeling a bit. So that's why i'm kind of, ah,

1693
01:23:34,000 --> 01:23:36,720
Speaker 1: gotcha considering it. But yeah, Conklin's going to step right in.

1694
01:23:36,920 --> 01:23:39,200
Speaker 1: Who knows who's going to be the second tight end,

1695
01:23:39,200 --> 01:23:42,719
Speaker 1: But if anything, it's just going to hurt Kirk Cousins,

1696
01:23:42,760 --> 01:23:44,920
Speaker 1: Like it won't impact I'm feeling. It's just gonna, you know,

1697
01:23:45,040 --> 01:23:47,960
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins numbers might dip a bit. So I haven't

1698
01:23:47,960 --> 01:23:50,920
Speaker 1: made an adjustment yet with feeling necessarily, but I was

1699
01:23:50,960 --> 01:23:54,920
Speaker 1: just curious thought that that might impact feeling at all.

1700
01:23:55,479 --> 01:23:59,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean tight ends really they are so like

1701
01:23:59,680 --> 01:24:01,400
Speaker 2: there's a lot of regression to the mean there, and

1702
01:24:01,400 --> 01:24:03,680
Speaker 2: they're all like unless you have like a Kelsey or

1703
01:24:04,479 --> 01:24:07,200
Speaker 2: a Kiddle or somebody like that, like they're not going

1704
01:24:07,280 --> 01:24:09,240
Speaker 2: to make too much of a difference. Like if you

1705
01:24:09,320 --> 01:24:11,720
Speaker 2: take them out and put in like a replacement level

1706
01:24:11,840 --> 01:24:14,960
Speaker 2: tight end on most teams, and like IRV Smith is

1707
01:24:15,000 --> 01:24:17,240
Speaker 2: kind of even though we like him, he's still like

1708
01:24:17,320 --> 01:24:19,360
Speaker 2: he was in that like glut of you know, low

1709
01:24:19,479 --> 01:24:20,679
Speaker 2: end tight end once for a reason.

1710
01:24:20,920 --> 01:24:23,360
Speaker 1: Like yeah, like I get it. But for the Vikings

1711
01:24:23,400 --> 01:24:26,439
Speaker 1: specifically the tight ends sort of the wide receiver three,

1712
01:24:26,560 --> 01:24:29,439
Speaker 1: especially IRV Smith. So like, what are they going to

1713
01:24:29,479 --> 01:24:32,679
Speaker 1: run more eleven personnel now with kJ Osborne or Chad BB.

1714
01:24:32,800 --> 01:24:36,040
Speaker 1: I just don't know. It just seems like the target

1715
01:24:36,080 --> 01:24:40,240
Speaker 1: tree might get like even more narrow with IRV Smith out.

1716
01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:43,880
Speaker 2: So's oh no, absolutely, like I have them, you know,

1717
01:24:44,400 --> 01:24:46,599
Speaker 2: I have Deeman getting a pretty significant amount.

1718
01:24:46,400 --> 01:24:47,160
Speaker 3: Of the targets.

1719
01:24:47,200 --> 01:24:50,160
Speaker 2: Still, It's just this is a low volume team, I mean,

1720
01:24:50,200 --> 01:24:52,400
Speaker 2: and then they could be lower volume than last year.

1721
01:24:52,439 --> 01:24:54,120
Speaker 2: So I mean I feel I feel good about it,

1722
01:24:54,160 --> 01:24:56,240
Speaker 2: but I get I see your point, you know, Smith.

1723
01:24:57,040 --> 01:24:58,839
Speaker 1: I'm with you on the under I was just curious

1724
01:24:58,840 --> 01:25:01,880
Speaker 1: if we should be not overlooking that, but I think

1725
01:25:01,880 --> 01:25:03,800
Speaker 1: we're on the same page that and sort of the

1726
01:25:03,880 --> 01:25:07,120
Speaker 1: Vikings passing attack. Taking a big step back is probably

1727
01:25:07,120 --> 01:25:07,920
Speaker 1: the way to go here.

1728
01:25:08,200 --> 01:25:10,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's nuts like Kirk Cousins having like

1729
01:25:10,880 --> 01:25:13,880
Speaker 2: one of the best yard per attempt projections in my

1730
01:25:13,960 --> 01:25:16,559
Speaker 2: whole Like he's right there with Mahomes and you know,

1731
01:25:16,600 --> 01:25:20,160
Speaker 2: in terms of yards per attempts for me, right, yeah, yeah,

1732
01:25:20,360 --> 01:25:23,720
Speaker 2: which and yeah, it's like it's like Mahomes, Cousins, Tannehill,

1733
01:25:23,880 --> 01:25:27,439
Speaker 2: like those guys right there at the top, and yeah,

1734
01:25:27,479 --> 01:25:28,280
Speaker 2: it's kind of nuts.

1735
01:25:28,320 --> 01:25:31,759
Speaker 3: So if is Kirk's cousin's going to be top.

1736
01:25:31,560 --> 01:25:35,640
Speaker 2: Three yards per attempt maybe, but yeah, a lot of

1737
01:25:35,920 --> 01:25:38,639
Speaker 2: a lot of floor there, and the Wan fifteen games

1738
01:25:38,720 --> 01:25:40,320
Speaker 2: last year, but only ten the year before.

1739
01:25:41,400 --> 01:25:44,679
Speaker 3: We'll see if he can last for an entire seventeen

1740
01:25:44,680 --> 01:25:45,240
Speaker 3: game season.

1741
01:25:45,320 --> 01:25:50,240
Speaker 2: So that is a wrap, all right, So twenty four

1742
01:25:50,280 --> 01:25:54,200
Speaker 2: props man, that was we went in. I always loved

1743
01:25:54,200 --> 01:25:57,680
Speaker 2: this episode every every year because it really kind of

1744
01:25:57,720 --> 01:26:02,439
Speaker 2: crystallizes some of the last second projections that we're doing.

1745
01:26:03,720 --> 01:26:07,360
Speaker 2: And we'll have our final rankings episode coming out in

1746
01:26:07,400 --> 01:26:09,719
Speaker 2: a couple of days as well, so that should be exciting.

1747
01:26:10,160 --> 01:26:13,479
Speaker 1: Yeah. I love this episode because we've got to talk

1748
01:26:13,479 --> 01:26:16,040
Speaker 1: about player props and also we're that much closer to

1749
01:26:16,160 --> 01:26:18,879
Speaker 1: getting to watch these players, which is awesome.

1750
01:26:19,200 --> 01:26:21,960
Speaker 2: We got that like extra week off between the regular season,

1751
01:26:22,040 --> 01:26:25,040
Speaker 2: but we'll have the rosters probably by the time you

1752
01:26:25,080 --> 01:26:27,360
Speaker 2: guys hear this. We'll cut down to fifty three and

1753
01:26:27,400 --> 01:26:31,040
Speaker 2: we'll be ready to go. So make sure you go

1754
01:26:31,080 --> 01:26:33,439
Speaker 2: to actionnetwork dot com to check out all of our

1755
01:26:33,560 --> 01:26:37,479
Speaker 2: fantasy football and betting content. Of course, we have our

1756
01:26:37,520 --> 01:26:42,600
Speaker 2: Fantasy Tool where you can leverage Sean and my projections,

1757
01:26:43,160 --> 01:26:46,760
Speaker 2: enter your weak settings, get custom rankings, cheat sheets, all

1758
01:26:46,760 --> 01:26:50,640
Speaker 2: that good stuff, and also be sure to download the

1759
01:26:50,640 --> 01:26:55,120
Speaker 2: award winning Action Network app. You can follow Sean there

1760
01:26:55,320 --> 01:26:58,439
Speaker 2: at the Underscore Odds Maker and me at Chris Raybon.

1761
01:26:58,920 --> 01:27:02,960
Speaker 2: You can also find us on Twitter at those same handles,

1762
01:27:03,160 --> 01:27:07,360
Speaker 2: and be sure to leave a rating and review on

1763
01:27:07,520 --> 01:27:09,280
Speaker 2: the new Fantasy Flex feed.

1764
01:27:09,360 --> 01:27:11,000
Speaker 3: We really really appreciate it.

1765
01:27:11,000 --> 01:27:12,439
Speaker 2: It's the best way to help us out as we

1766
01:27:12,479 --> 01:27:15,040
Speaker 2: move to this new feed giving you five episodes per week.

1767
01:27:15,640 --> 01:27:19,559
Speaker 2: Once the season starts, we'll grab Apple podcast review every

1768
01:27:19,560 --> 01:27:23,080
Speaker 2: week reading up to week one and send you guys

1769
01:27:23,120 --> 01:27:26,360
Speaker 2: some swag and yeah, that should do it.

1770
01:27:26,439 --> 01:27:34,439
Speaker 3: Let's get to schwiny