WEBVTT - Where the Puck Is Going: Why Maximum Gerrymandering May Be Inevitable 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:27.204 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:27.244 --> 0:00:29.884 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:29.524 --> 0:00:30.444 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:31.044 --> 0:00:34.804 Today, Nate, a topic that's been in the news quite 0:00:34.844 --> 0:00:38.204 a bit, something that's really important for the United States, 0:00:38.244 --> 0:00:42.404 for democracy, for game theory, and that topic is gerrymandering 0:00:43.004 --> 0:00:49.324 or redistricting in salamanderish ways as well else we'll talk about, Sue. 0:00:49.364 --> 0:00:53.484 This is a jerrymandering episode, Maria, all jerrymandering, everything about 0:00:53.524 --> 0:00:55.084 jerry mattering. We're going to explain a little bit of 0:00:55.084 --> 0:00:57.364 a history of this. But this is a problem that 0:00:57.404 --> 0:01:00.444 suits the show's interest really well. It's a high stakes 0:01:00.444 --> 0:01:03.764 problem in one where as you mentioned game theory in particular, 0:01:04.804 --> 0:01:08.604 very literal, real life application of the prisoner's dilemma, as 0:01:08.644 --> 0:01:17.084 you'll hear us talk about throughout the show. 0:01:18.524 --> 0:01:20.724 So before we get into what's happening right now, I 0:01:20.764 --> 0:01:24.044 think it's really interesting to kind of position this a 0:01:24.044 --> 0:01:28.524 little bit historically and give our listeners who may not remember, 0:01:28.564 --> 0:01:31.124 you know, their US history one oh one, a little 0:01:31.124 --> 0:01:34.244 bit of a background of what jerrymandering is and where 0:01:34.284 --> 0:01:40.364 it actually came from. So the original term jerrymander, it 0:01:40.404 --> 0:01:43.684 was first used in eighteen twelve in the Boston Gazette 0:01:44.164 --> 0:01:52.684 and it refers to figure Governor Elbridge Jerry. He was basically, yes, 0:01:52.804 --> 0:01:56.084 good old Elbridge. I still it's so funny. So I 0:01:56.124 --> 0:01:59.124 obviously did a little refresh before this segment, but I 0:01:59.204 --> 0:02:01.844 remember that name so well from my history class because 0:02:01.844 --> 0:02:04.564 I was like, Elbridge Jerry, Like, how do you ever 0:02:04.844 --> 0:02:10.044 forget the name Elbridge? Anyway, So he was a a 0:02:10.164 --> 0:02:14.524 Democratic Republican and for people once again who need a 0:02:14.804 --> 0:02:18.724 US history one oh one refresher, the Democratic Republican Party 0:02:18.804 --> 0:02:25.004 would go on to become the Democratic Party right under 0:02:25.044 --> 0:02:25.804 Andrew Jackson. 0:02:25.924 --> 0:02:29.284 So you have these leftists saying that Democrats are really Republicans. 0:02:29.284 --> 0:02:31.244 It's kind of it's kind of true. 0:02:31.524 --> 0:02:35.924 Yeah. So basically, yeah, the party told him, you know, 0:02:36.084 --> 0:02:40.364 we need to kind of do this redistricting in Massachusetts 0:02:40.444 --> 0:02:45.684 right during the state Senate elections. And Jerry actually got 0:02:45.724 --> 0:02:48.284 a bad rep on this because he disagreed with the 0:02:48.324 --> 0:02:53.044 proposal and he said he found it quote highly disagreeable 0:02:53.524 --> 0:02:56.124 end quote. But he was the one who signed the 0:02:56.164 --> 0:02:59.404 bill in eighteen twelve. So his name is the one 0:02:59.444 --> 0:03:03.284 associated with this distinction and the reason it's called Jerry 0:03:03.324 --> 0:03:06.724 Mandering comes from obviously his last name, but also that 0:03:07.484 --> 0:03:11.884 the map looked like a salamander basically, So it was 0:03:12.044 --> 0:03:15.724 such a weirdly drawn map in order to try to 0:03:15.804 --> 0:03:16.204 get the. 0:03:16.164 --> 0:03:20.804 Boats, I mean, Massachusets a little bit of weird looking 0:03:20.844 --> 0:03:23.244 stay right, you got that fucking cape Ki. Look, you 0:03:23.284 --> 0:03:26.204 got like a lot of and it's very square on 0:03:26.244 --> 0:03:28.564 the left end. I think it used to cover more territory. 0:03:28.564 --> 0:03:30.524 I didn't, mass just used to have some of Vermont 0:03:30.564 --> 0:03:33.604 and stuff like that. But like, you know, you're gonna 0:03:33.604 --> 0:03:36.484 get some weird looking shapes if you have a fractal coastline, 0:03:36.724 --> 0:03:40.084 like the beautiful coastline you have outside of Massachusetts. 0:03:40.564 --> 0:03:42.244 It is it is so you are going to get 0:03:42.244 --> 0:03:44.604 some weird shapes. But this one was weird enough that it, 0:03:44.764 --> 0:03:47.884 you know, prompted an entire term. No one actually knows 0:03:48.164 --> 0:03:51.684 who coined the term to begin with. But yeah, so 0:03:51.764 --> 0:03:55.924 that's the that's the origin of the term. And I 0:03:55.964 --> 0:04:00.204 think that if we if we actually then look at 0:04:00.244 --> 0:04:04.844 the history, we see that in the past, you know, 0:04:05.044 --> 0:04:09.564 the Democrats knew how to fight dirty, right, Like if 0:04:09.604 --> 0:04:12.644 we look at the Democratic Party of the eighteen hundreds, 0:04:12.684 --> 0:04:17.244 like with the political bosses, they like, they really fought 0:04:17.284 --> 0:04:19.924 tooth and nail to get those votes, and they did 0:04:19.964 --> 0:04:23.044 everything they could to make sure that their districts had 0:04:23.084 --> 0:04:26.284 the votes they needed. So even though today, you know 0:04:26.404 --> 0:04:29.844 this is happening in Texas and you know, Democrats, especially 0:04:29.884 --> 0:04:32.044 since the nineteen seventies, have really kind of tried to 0:04:32.044 --> 0:04:33.924 step back and tried to say, you know, you can't 0:04:34.324 --> 0:04:38.084 do this. You cannot manipulate districts to try to get 0:04:38.204 --> 0:04:42.884 votes for one specific party. That's not the way democracy works. They, 0:04:43.204 --> 0:04:45.964 you know, have tried to kind of put that party 0:04:46.004 --> 0:04:52.124 boss history behind them. But I think that it's very 0:04:52.164 --> 0:04:55.204 interesting just to keep in the back of your mind 0:04:55.244 --> 0:04:57.564 that this was not always the case, right, that this 0:04:57.844 --> 0:05:01.204 is the party that originated the practice, and that it 0:05:01.404 --> 0:05:05.244 used to be everyone brought their boxing gloves to the 0:05:05.364 --> 0:05:07.884 ring in the past, and then it changed. Right, So 0:05:08.484 --> 0:05:10.924 now we're in a very different situation. But if we 0:05:11.004 --> 0:05:14.444 go back to the eighteen hundreds, the parties were quite 0:05:14.484 --> 0:05:17.924 different and there have been I think people would say 0:05:17.924 --> 0:05:21.524 there's been progress, right, But now, Nate, if you want 0:05:21.564 --> 0:05:23.764 to bring us to the present day. 0:05:23.924 --> 0:05:28.644 The Constitution requires that after every census every decade that 0:05:29.604 --> 0:05:33.524 states are responsible the apportion members based on the census 0:05:33.564 --> 0:05:36.684 to the House of Representatives, and that states are responsible 0:05:36.764 --> 0:05:40.924 for setting their own boundaries without a lot of limits, 0:05:40.964 --> 0:05:44.964 at least based on how recent courts have decided this right. 0:05:45.164 --> 0:05:47.444 There are some limits based on the Voting Rights Act, 0:05:47.844 --> 0:05:50.004 where you want to have enough seats that are representative 0:05:50.044 --> 0:05:53.204 of black and Hispanic voters and sometimes Asian Americans, they 0:05:53.244 --> 0:05:57.244 meet certain thresholds. Apart from that, though, the Roberts Court 0:05:57.284 --> 0:06:01.684 has said that, hey, this is a legislative decision. They 0:06:01.724 --> 0:06:04.644 are elections to Congress. The Constitution doesn't say a lot 0:06:04.684 --> 0:06:07.324 about them. And so therefore, if Congress wants to implement 0:06:07.684 --> 0:06:11.764 more procedures are redistricting, they're in charge of elections. They 0:06:12.204 --> 0:06:15.484 have to do that. Except nothing has really happened right now. 0:06:15.724 --> 0:06:20.084 Throughout history, there have been periodic periods. I'm redundant there right. 0:06:20.164 --> 0:06:23.924 There have been feints and spells where there was more 0:06:24.084 --> 0:06:28.044 or less mid decade redistricting, meaning that like, there's nothine 0:06:28.124 --> 0:06:31.204 new census, but we're going to reset boundaries in advance 0:06:31.244 --> 0:06:34.084 of the next election. Anyway, this sometimes happens because of 0:06:34.164 --> 0:06:36.684 court decisions where a court rules at a map is illegal. 0:06:37.124 --> 0:06:40.204 They can also happen strategically in two thousand and two 0:06:41.084 --> 0:06:43.564 or two thousand and three. Rather, Texas used to be 0:06:43.724 --> 0:06:47.644 kind of a democratic state. I was going to say 0:06:47.644 --> 0:06:50.364 a blue state, but not really in the classical way 0:06:50.404 --> 0:06:51.844 that like we think of a blue state. It's just 0:06:51.844 --> 0:06:56.724 you had like conservative Southern Democrats. For example, LBJ was 0:06:56.724 --> 0:07:00.124 from Texas, of course, beginning in the mid two thousands. 0:07:00.204 --> 0:07:03.084 LBJ of course was the administration that passed the Voting 0:07:03.124 --> 0:07:04.604 Rights Act in nineteen sixty five. 0:07:04.764 --> 0:07:06.604 Of course, with a very liberal the War in court 0:07:06.684 --> 0:07:09.164 right in two thousand and three year beginning of the 0:07:09.204 --> 0:07:13.804 mid early twands late nineteen nineties, the South, the conservative 0:07:13.804 --> 0:07:16.924 Democrats in the South began to be replaced by Republicans. Right, 0:07:17.004 --> 0:07:20.364 So two thousand and three Texas thought that its map 0:07:21.124 --> 0:07:24.204 wasn't republican enough, and they redistricted in the middle of 0:07:24.324 --> 0:07:27.724 the decade. Now courts have rule that this is probably 0:07:27.724 --> 0:07:29.644 fine too. If Congress wants to print that, they can 0:07:29.684 --> 0:07:31.564 also pass along. I mean, it's kind of like a 0:07:31.604 --> 0:07:34.404 frequent technique of the Supreme Court, which I don't think 0:07:34.524 --> 0:07:37.404 is like inherently terrible, right, But when you have kind 0:07:37.404 --> 0:07:40.884 of a dysfunctional Congress, it's a very partisan and very 0:07:41.804 --> 0:07:43.604 you know, especially in the gp CA. So I think 0:07:43.604 --> 0:07:45.644 this is not totally of both sides things, but very much, 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:48.844 very much like enthrall is that the right word, very 0:07:48.924 --> 0:07:52.084 much at the command of Trump. You're not gonna have 0:07:52.084 --> 0:07:55.404 a lot of buy trust. Yeah, I'm not gonna have 0:07:55.404 --> 0:07:58.004 a lot of bipartisan legislation passed. Right, So it's kind 0:07:58.084 --> 0:08:02.764 of a free for all, and Trump, being a maximizer 0:08:02.804 --> 0:08:06.564 as far as strategic gain is saying, has told Republicans 0:08:06.564 --> 0:08:09.404 in Texas who are initially reluctant, Hey, we can probably 0:08:09.484 --> 0:08:12.564 squeeze five more seats out of this map, based in 0:08:12.604 --> 0:08:14.044 the fact that Trump had a really good year in 0:08:14.084 --> 0:08:18.324 Texas in twenty twenty four, and in particular, Hispanics in 0:08:18.364 --> 0:08:22.044 like the Rio Grande Valley have shifted very republican. The 0:08:22.084 --> 0:08:24.564 suburbs have not had this democratic shift that they thought, 0:08:24.724 --> 0:08:28.484 so they can squeeze more seats out of the map 0:08:28.964 --> 0:08:32.644 than they currently have. Right. My colleague Eli McCown dawson 0:08:33.244 --> 0:08:36.084 did an analysis of this at Silver Bulletin. It probably 0:08:36.124 --> 0:08:38.164 will not be the five seats they claim. That's kind 0:08:38.164 --> 0:08:40.724 of the high end right call it like one to five, 0:08:40.804 --> 0:08:44.724 depending on whether Democrats rebound among hispanic expected value of 0:08:44.764 --> 0:08:48.164 maybe three seats, right, which, you know, three seats might 0:08:48.164 --> 0:08:49.844 not seem a huge deal of four hundred and thirty 0:08:49.884 --> 0:08:53.204 five members of the House of Representatives, However, because so 0:08:53.244 --> 0:08:56.324 many other seats are jerry mattered, because voters are so polarized, 0:08:56.564 --> 0:09:00.284 there might only be a couple dozen competitive races, and 0:09:00.364 --> 0:09:03.844 so three seats in Texas matter a fair bit. 0:09:04.044 --> 0:09:04.284 Yeah. 0:09:04.364 --> 0:09:08.004 Governor Gavin Newsom of California has proposed to have an 0:09:08.044 --> 0:09:11.524 even more aggressive districting plan in California. It's currently done 0:09:11.564 --> 0:09:15.164 by a non partisan commission. You're welcome, by the way, 0:09:15.324 --> 0:09:19.844 to roll your eyes a little bit, just a little 0:09:19.844 --> 0:09:24.564 bit at non partisan commissions. It's kind of you know, look, Maria, 0:09:24.764 --> 0:09:27.524 sometimes when groups of experts get together, they tend to 0:09:27.604 --> 0:09:31.564 favor in current times Democrats, right, and so like, so 0:09:31.684 --> 0:09:36.284 I would say it's but still California now could go 0:09:36.324 --> 0:09:38.044 and be like, we're just going to go back and 0:09:38.084 --> 0:09:40.404 restore the power to the state lunch later. And because 0:09:40.444 --> 0:09:43.684 they have super majorities, we can jurymander as aggressively as 0:09:43.724 --> 0:09:46.884 we want, as unapologetically really as we want, subject only 0:09:46.924 --> 0:09:49.444 to the Voting Rights Amendment or Voting Rights Act, it's 0:09:49.484 --> 0:09:52.364 not amendment. Excuse me, because, of course, a lot of 0:09:52.364 --> 0:09:59.324 minority groups in California, appolling by a Newsome affiliated group today, 0:09:59.924 --> 0:10:02.604 claim this measure has a big lead in California if 0:10:02.644 --> 0:10:03.884 it were to make it in the ballot on the 0:10:03.884 --> 0:10:08.284 ballot in next year's midterms, so that could reciprocate. Right, 0:10:08.324 --> 0:10:11.564 But yeah, the the theme here is that Democrats are 0:10:12.644 --> 0:10:15.884 are always a half step behind. Right. One important thing 0:10:15.884 --> 0:10:18.964 that happened is that, you know, in the twenty ten 0:10:19.124 --> 0:10:22.044 so Republicans had a really really good mid term in 0:10:22.084 --> 0:10:26.684 twenty ten because Barack Obama started out very very popular, 0:10:26.724 --> 0:10:29.564 tried to do healthcare, quickly became quite unpopular, backlash against 0:10:29.604 --> 0:10:33.324 the liberal, backlash against the first African American president, et cetera, 0:10:33.364 --> 0:10:37.004 et cetera. Right, however, twenty ten is a really important 0:10:37.044 --> 0:10:41.484 election because that dictates congression and resting for the rest 0:10:41.524 --> 0:10:44.084 of the decade pretty much. Right, So in twenty ten, 0:10:44.524 --> 0:10:48.004 Democrats were disadvantaged. The next time around, in twenty twenty, 0:10:48.524 --> 0:10:51.044 Democrats had had a comparatively better year. They had a 0:10:51.084 --> 0:10:54.044 good year in twenty eighteen, which carries over into the 0:10:54.884 --> 0:10:58.084 for four year cycles into state legislatures, and so forth. 0:10:58.124 --> 0:11:00.684 So basically since twenty twenty, since twenty twenty two, I 0:11:00.684 --> 0:11:02.364 should say, the maps that went into place after the 0:11:02.364 --> 0:11:06.044 twenty twenty census, the GP advantage to the twenty tens 0:11:06.364 --> 0:11:09.804 is gone, in part because the Roulette wheel landed on 0:11:09.804 --> 0:11:11.684 a bitter number for Democrats in terms of the timing 0:11:12.044 --> 0:11:15.964 of all this, but also because Democrats have gotten more 0:11:16.284 --> 0:11:18.884 aggressive in states like New York all not of course 0:11:18.924 --> 0:11:20.884 it was they could be right. Democrats are often more 0:11:20.964 --> 0:11:24.764 risk averse. Incumbents are terrified of having to fight other 0:11:24.764 --> 0:11:27.644 incumbents are losing any you know, of having a ninety 0:11:27.644 --> 0:11:30.044 seven percent chance of winning instead of ninety nine percent. 0:11:30.084 --> 0:11:33.564 Even in Texas, Republicans were initially reluctant. But that's kind 0:11:33.564 --> 0:11:35.444 of a brief I guess it was more than thirty seconds. 0:11:35.444 --> 0:11:37.204 That was like a brief five minute history of this. 0:11:38.204 --> 0:11:41.284 Yeah, no, I think that. I think that the last 0:11:41.284 --> 0:11:45.524 point you made, let's just highlight the reason that Texas 0:11:45.604 --> 0:11:48.124 was reluctant not because they were opposed to gerrymandering. It 0:11:48.164 --> 0:11:50.684 was because they didn't know if they could redraw the 0:11:50.724 --> 0:11:54.124 districts in a favorable way, because they were afraid that 0:11:54.164 --> 0:11:58.044 there would be too many Democratic voters basically in other 0:11:58.084 --> 0:12:00.124 districts if you split it. But now they're like, oh, no, 0:12:00.164 --> 0:12:02.124 I think we can do it. I think we're fine. 0:12:02.524 --> 0:12:05.404 So it wasn't like a principled opposition. It was a wait, 0:12:05.564 --> 0:12:10.044 can we get away with this and get the vote? Which, 0:12:10.124 --> 0:12:13.244 by the way, like that's not to say like, ooh 0:12:13.324 --> 0:12:18.004 bad Republicans. Like jerrymandering has always been an incredibly political 0:12:18.044 --> 0:12:21.284 thing with the sole purpose of trying to get power 0:12:21.364 --> 0:12:24.804 for your group. So that should be your number one concern, Right, 0:12:24.884 --> 0:12:29.124 can I get by by forcing these like dubious practices? 0:12:29.204 --> 0:12:30.964 Can I get the votes I need? And if the 0:12:30.964 --> 0:12:33.084 answer is maybe not, then maybe you don't want to 0:12:33.084 --> 0:12:36.764 expend political capital on doing that. Now. What I think 0:12:36.924 --> 0:12:40.284 the kind of another big issue here though, which we're 0:12:40.324 --> 0:12:44.244 starting to see, is like anything that you do to me, 0:12:44.364 --> 0:12:47.004 I can do back to you. Right, So if Texas 0:12:47.044 --> 0:12:50.964 starts this game and republic and kind of Republicans try 0:12:51.004 --> 0:12:53.364 to do what they're what they're trying to do in 0:12:53.404 --> 0:12:58.844 Texas with the redistricting, then you know, as Gavin Newsom, 0:12:59.004 --> 0:13:03.964 as Kathy Hochel has also said in New York, like fine, 0:13:04.244 --> 0:13:05.804 you know you want to do it, We'll do it, 0:13:06.044 --> 0:13:08.844 and we're going to redistrict our straits too, and there's 0:13:08.884 --> 0:13:13.404 nothing stopping then people from basically getting in the ring 0:13:13.484 --> 0:13:16.724 and getting starting to fight dirty. And I don't know, 0:13:17.044 --> 0:13:19.484 I mean, personally, I don't think that that's the way 0:13:19.524 --> 0:13:22.044 we should be going. And I think that your idea 0:13:22.044 --> 0:13:25.404 of a constitutional amendment against this is not a bad one, 0:13:25.444 --> 0:13:28.764 because the Voting Rights Act has been like in the 0:13:28.844 --> 0:13:32.404 last five years, the course have definitely chipped away at 0:13:32.524 --> 0:13:35.764 the power of the Voting Rights Act. And according to 0:13:35.804 --> 0:13:37.924 the Voting Rights Act, you can't redistrict in a way 0:13:37.924 --> 0:13:42.564 that dilutes the votes of minority voters. And it's being 0:13:42.604 --> 0:13:46.484 completely tossed on its head these days, right with Texas 0:13:46.484 --> 0:13:51.044 saying well, you can't have too many minority voters of 0:13:51.084 --> 0:13:53.684 different minorities in one district so that then they become 0:13:53.724 --> 0:13:57.524 a majority, right like such like absolutely backwards logic that 0:13:57.604 --> 0:14:00.444 has actually a very little legal basis. And so we're 0:14:00.444 --> 0:14:05.244 in a very interesting situation where the Act that has 0:14:05.364 --> 0:14:10.044 kind of been holding the line against gerrymandering or multiple 0:14:10.084 --> 0:14:11.484 decades is fraying. 0:14:12.004 --> 0:14:15.124 Well, would I would push back. I mean, it's a 0:14:15.244 --> 0:14:17.124 I mean, first of all, until fairlure recently, you didn't 0:14:17.124 --> 0:14:20.124 have a lot of opportunity to create majority non white districts, right, 0:14:21.604 --> 0:14:24.004 But yeah, I mean, you know, if you have hopes 0:14:24.044 --> 0:14:26.724 of using the Voting Rights Act now, the Civil Rights Act, 0:14:26.724 --> 0:14:30.084 the Voting Rights Act as a kind of crutch to 0:14:30.124 --> 0:14:33.564 rely on for gerrymandering, A, it's probably gonna be weekend. 0:14:33.564 --> 0:14:35.324 And B I'm not sure what's helping democrats that much 0:14:35.364 --> 0:14:37.924 in the first place. Again, maybe get for other reasons, 0:14:37.964 --> 0:14:40.884 but but you know, it's more that the Roberts Court 0:14:40.964 --> 0:14:44.804 said that this is not our job to regulate what 0:14:44.924 --> 0:14:48.564 states do. Congress has the power to regulate elections. That's 0:14:48.564 --> 0:14:53.164 pretty clearly enumerated in the Constitution. And also, like it 0:14:53.244 --> 0:14:57.444 is kind of hard to have constitutional standards, right. So 0:14:57.604 --> 0:15:01.844 one thing that has been upheld is contiguity, right where 0:15:01.884 --> 0:15:05.924 it means that like I can't take the East Village 0:15:06.604 --> 0:15:11.604 and then Merchantry District with Buffalo right, and then everything else, No, 0:15:11.724 --> 0:15:16.124 I can't. Some people argue for compactness, which means the 0:15:16.164 --> 0:15:20.124 maps have to have logical shapes. How you define that? 0:15:20.124 --> 0:15:22.204 Does it look like a salamander? What's a little bit objective? There? 0:15:22.244 --> 0:15:25.684 Various subjective right? There are algorithms that you can use, 0:15:25.724 --> 0:15:30.044 but like, it's not a national requirement. Only contiguity has upheld, 0:15:30.444 --> 0:15:35.724 so there is some flexibility. But yeah, Democrats have been 0:15:35.724 --> 0:15:39.244 a half step behind in this game. I do want 0:15:39.244 --> 0:15:40.484 to say if we look at kind of like the 0:15:40.604 --> 0:15:45.124 very long term equilibrium, right, I mean, first of all, 0:15:45.444 --> 0:15:49.684 this is a somewhat predictable move. When people say, oh, 0:15:49.724 --> 0:15:55.124 this is unprecedented, it's not unprecedented, right, It's pretty predictable. 0:15:55.124 --> 0:15:58.204 It's pretty well protected by current constitutional law that will 0:15:58.244 --> 0:15:59.964 remain in place so long as we have a conservative 0:15:59.964 --> 0:16:03.724 Supreme Court almost for certain right, it has happened at times, 0:16:03.724 --> 0:16:06.324 it's been threatened at other times, and so like, this 0:16:06.404 --> 0:16:09.964 is a fairly predictable escalation. And I don't think it's 0:16:09.964 --> 0:16:15.484 in the category of like authoritarianism per se. It's more 0:16:15.724 --> 0:16:22.244 like maximizing what's pretty clearly within the rules constitutionally, you know. 0:16:22.324 --> 0:16:25.044 With that said, I do feel remister for like talking 0:16:25.084 --> 0:16:27.644 about some of the problems of gerrymandering. First of all, 0:16:27.684 --> 0:16:30.084 it means that in a large majority of districts, perhaps 0:16:30.204 --> 0:16:32.684 ninety percent for Congress, doesn't matter, it's going to be 0:16:32.724 --> 0:16:37.084 democratic Republican combined with all the polarization that we have today. Secondly, 0:16:37.124 --> 0:16:40.324 you have a bunch of fucking wackos in Congress, right, 0:16:40.564 --> 0:16:42.484 maybe more on the right and the left. Maybe some 0:16:42.524 --> 0:16:44.644 readers disagree and can point to left wing, the squad 0:16:44.684 --> 0:16:46.284 or whatever they want. And I don't mean to equivocate those 0:16:46.324 --> 0:16:49.964 exactly right, but you know, when you have members that 0:16:50.044 --> 0:16:53.284 have no chance of losing a general election, they even 0:16:53.324 --> 0:16:55.444 further to the right or the left because they're afraid 0:16:55.444 --> 0:16:59.564 of losing a primary. They come more parliamentarian where they 0:16:59.564 --> 0:17:03.644 do the bidding of Trump or or Biden for that matter. Right, 0:17:03.684 --> 0:17:05.644 you can count and there are a handful of dissident, 0:17:06.324 --> 0:17:10.124 contrarian whatever you want to call them, right, independent minded 0:17:10.364 --> 0:17:12.084 representatives and Sanders, but there are a few. You can 0:17:12.124 --> 0:17:15.044 kind of count them on one hand, more and more 0:17:15.204 --> 0:17:18.804 and more, and I'd argue that's not good for the country. Right, 0:17:18.804 --> 0:17:23.244 we have not seen, you know, I think compared to Congress, 0:17:23.404 --> 0:17:28.364 the courts have done a relatively good job of restraining Trump. Right, 0:17:28.804 --> 0:17:31.244 Congress has not Congress. And again we're going to piss 0:17:31.244 --> 0:17:34.004 off certain readers, but like listeners, but like you know, 0:17:34.044 --> 0:17:36.604 Congress did not pushed back against RFK Junior or Telsea 0:17:36.604 --> 0:17:38.924 Gabbard or Pete eggs At being appointed to their respective 0:17:39.284 --> 0:17:42.964 cabinet positions. Personally, I think that is these are some 0:17:43.044 --> 0:17:46.324 of the worst parts of Trump administration so far. Congress, 0:17:46.324 --> 0:17:49.484 which is supposed to have authority over tariffs and Trump 0:17:49.564 --> 0:17:53.124 is interpreting the precedents very liberally, right, has not really 0:17:53.164 --> 0:17:56.044 pushed back very much on that. Right, we saw how 0:17:56.084 --> 0:17:59.084 few members of Congress hoted to impeach Trump even after 0:17:59.204 --> 0:18:03.284 January sixth, and the handful who did, very few of 0:18:03.324 --> 0:18:05.684 them remain in office today, right, So this is a 0:18:05.684 --> 0:18:09.364 big problem. They kind of create self perpetuating polarization. 0:18:11.724 --> 0:18:28.604 And we'll be back right after this when you know, 0:18:28.724 --> 0:18:31.724 after last week, I was thinking about kind of you 0:18:31.844 --> 0:18:34.244 saying that this should be a constitutional amendment, and I 0:18:34.724 --> 0:18:37.164 think that, you know, you've just made a lot of 0:18:37.244 --> 0:18:41.124 points for why that should be the case, in the 0:18:41.164 --> 0:18:43.364 sense that also if we kind of go back to 0:18:43.404 --> 0:18:46.644 one of the core elements of the show, like how 0:18:46.724 --> 0:18:49.884 we how we model this right from a game theory perspective, 0:18:50.564 --> 0:18:54.804 the outcome as of now like doesn't doesn't look great, right, Like, 0:18:55.084 --> 0:18:57.164 we we know how this game is going to play 0:18:57.204 --> 0:19:02.004 out if we continue playing it this way, and it's 0:19:02.044 --> 0:19:04.804 it's not a very it's not a great game game 0:19:04.804 --> 0:19:07.804 tree that we're on right now, right, Like, it's it's 0:19:07.884 --> 0:19:11.004 bad options, Like what are if you're the Democrats, right 0:19:11.084 --> 0:19:13.644 and you're looking at what's happening in Texas, you have 0:19:13.724 --> 0:19:16.164 the option to say, no, you know, they go low, 0:19:16.244 --> 0:19:19.444 we go high. Yeah, that hasn't worked well and that's 0:19:19.524 --> 0:19:20.564 probably not going to work. 0:19:21.524 --> 0:19:23.444 We're going to go it's tit for tat strategy. 0:19:23.524 --> 0:19:25.924 Right, they go, Now, now it's definitely tit for tat. 0:19:25.964 --> 0:19:28.044 It's not tit for two tots. Well, maybe it's been 0:19:28.044 --> 0:19:31.404 tip for two tats. Right, They've they've been more than 0:19:31.444 --> 0:19:34.204 one step behind, and they've let kind of they've let 0:19:34.244 --> 0:19:36.404 it devolve a little bit. They're like, well, let's wait, 0:19:36.484 --> 0:19:39.324 maybe maybe that tat wasn't really a tat, so maybe 0:19:39.404 --> 0:19:42.884 they did start playing that. But now they've realized that, no, 0:19:43.084 --> 0:19:45.404 that the tats are going to keep coming, and so 0:19:45.524 --> 0:19:49.124 you can you can no longer, you can no longer 0:19:49.124 --> 0:19:51.724 sit back, and you do have to start retaliating, in 0:19:51.764 --> 0:19:54.684 which case, as we've talked about before, you get that 0:19:54.764 --> 0:19:57.364 downward spiral where the payoffs are just worse for everyone. 0:19:57.804 --> 0:20:00.724 And as you say, Nate, this isn't good for the 0:20:00.724 --> 0:20:04.324 country on numerous levels. Like let's just let's forget you know, 0:20:04.684 --> 0:20:07.244 voting rights, civil rights, all of those. Let's just say 0:20:07.644 --> 0:20:12.724 that a democracy is good if people are afraid that 0:20:14.004 --> 0:20:16.764 voters might not elect them, right, if they feel like 0:20:16.884 --> 0:20:20.924 they are accountable to the people that they represent, if 0:20:20.924 --> 0:20:24.724 that accountability is lost. Right, if you know that no 0:20:24.724 --> 0:20:27.524 matter what I do, I am going to get re 0:20:27.604 --> 0:20:30.724 elected with ninety nine percent certainty. Sure ninety nine isn't 0:20:30.724 --> 0:20:33.124 one hundred, But as long as you do that, you 0:20:33.164 --> 0:20:36.604 are no longer representing your district. You're no longer representing 0:20:37.204 --> 0:20:40.364 what the people of your district necessarily want. And sure 0:20:40.404 --> 0:20:44.084 there might come a tipping point, but this isn't healthy 0:20:44.284 --> 0:20:47.164 and you end up getting policies that you know, as 0:20:47.244 --> 0:20:50.724 you said, enthrall to Trump right now, they're Trump dictated 0:20:50.764 --> 0:20:57.724 whatever whoever's in power. It's not the premise of the democracy, right, 0:20:57.804 --> 0:20:59.564 is that we elect leaders who are going to be 0:20:59.604 --> 0:21:02.884 representing our interests in the best way possible. And that 0:21:02.924 --> 0:21:03.924 premise gets broken. 0:21:04.324 --> 0:21:06.884 Yeah, and to send a threshold for this, right, I mean, 0:21:06.884 --> 0:21:10.524 you said ninety nine percent percent is like in Alabama 0:21:10.644 --> 0:21:13.084 in twenty eighteen, I think it was or twenty nineteen. 0:21:13.124 --> 0:21:17.404 There's a special election. Roy Moore, Judge Roy Moore lost 0:21:17.364 --> 0:21:19.924 at special election to a Democrat just barely in Alabama 0:21:20.004 --> 0:21:23.804 because he had been credibly accused. He denied the allegations 0:21:24.004 --> 0:21:28.884 of repeated acts of sexual misconduct with women under the 0:21:28.924 --> 0:21:32.484 age of eighteen. And that was enough for the people 0:21:32.524 --> 0:21:35.044 of Alabama. Fifty one percent of us say that's too much, 0:21:35.284 --> 0:21:37.684 but hey, that was in a pretty good environment for Democrats. 0:21:38.844 --> 0:21:40.684 That was also in a time you know, it's five 0:21:40.724 --> 0:21:42.484 years ago now, six years ago, seven years ago, a 0:21:42.524 --> 0:21:45.844 little bit less polarized than now. So like, yeah, in Alabama, 0:21:45.884 --> 0:21:48.004 by the way, is very red, right, but some of 0:21:48.004 --> 0:21:50.164 these districts are like more read than Alabama. So you 0:21:50.204 --> 0:21:51.964 might have we've done the modeling, right. You may have 0:21:52.004 --> 0:21:55.844 a point one percent chance of losing your primary if 0:21:55.884 --> 0:21:57.484 you put it into a logistic regression model, or not 0:21:57.524 --> 0:21:59.124 your primary, your general election, right if you put it 0:21:59.164 --> 0:22:03.484 into a logistic regression model. And so you know, polarization 0:22:03.684 --> 0:22:08.804 is not the fault of the Constitution per se. But 0:22:09.044 --> 0:22:13.084 like our constitution was probably not designed to deal with 0:22:13.124 --> 0:22:16.044 the degree of partisanship. It's not a parliamentary system. Right, 0:22:16.084 --> 0:22:19.484 we can have no confidence vote not inclined to deal 0:22:19.524 --> 0:22:23.644 with a degree of partisan polarization that we have right now. 0:22:23.764 --> 0:22:28.244 And this is a predictable escalation. I mean, you know, 0:22:28.644 --> 0:22:30.364 the one Democrat has seems to get this. I saw 0:22:30.404 --> 0:22:34.324 a betto betel or work speech. He's, of course down 0:22:34.364 --> 0:22:38.884 in Texas trying to encourage Texas Democrats to flee the 0:22:38.884 --> 0:22:41.044 state to avoiding a quorum. You can only do that 0:22:41.084 --> 0:22:43.084 for so long before you have to see your family 0:22:43.444 --> 0:22:45.284 and so forth. He's like, yeah, I don't care if 0:22:45.364 --> 0:22:47.364 Rockms do it. We should preemptively do this. I think 0:22:47.404 --> 0:22:50.084 it's actually smart, right, good for you, Beto right, which 0:22:50.124 --> 0:22:52.484 is that like you can see where this where the 0:22:52.524 --> 0:22:57.964 puck is going. Also, these things take time in California. Yes, 0:22:58.124 --> 0:23:01.164 you have about initiative deadline. I don't know exactly when 0:23:01.204 --> 0:23:02.844 it is, right, but it's going to be litigated in courts. 0:23:02.884 --> 0:23:05.004 That's why it's all happening. You know. You might think 0:23:05.044 --> 0:23:07.404