1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:27,204 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:27,244 --> 00:00:29,884 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:29,524 --> 00:00:30,444 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. 4 00:00:31,044 --> 00:00:34,804 Speaker 1: Today, Nate, a topic that's been in the news quite 5 00:00:34,844 --> 00:00:38,204 Speaker 1: a bit, something that's really important for the United States, 6 00:00:38,244 --> 00:00:42,404 Speaker 1: for democracy, for game theory, and that topic is gerrymandering 7 00:00:43,004 --> 00:00:49,324 Speaker 1: or redistricting in salamanderish ways as well else we'll talk about, Sue. 8 00:00:49,364 --> 00:00:53,484 Speaker 2: This is a jerrymandering episode, Maria, all jerrymandering, everything about 9 00:00:53,524 --> 00:00:55,084 Speaker 2: jerry mattering. We're going to explain a little bit of 10 00:00:55,084 --> 00:00:57,364 Speaker 2: a history of this. But this is a problem that 11 00:00:57,404 --> 00:01:00,444 Speaker 2: suits the show's interest really well. It's a high stakes 12 00:01:00,444 --> 00:01:03,764 Speaker 2: problem in one where as you mentioned game theory in particular, 13 00:01:04,804 --> 00:01:08,604 Speaker 2: very literal, real life application of the prisoner's dilemma, as 14 00:01:08,644 --> 00:01:17,084 Speaker 2: you'll hear us talk about throughout the show. 15 00:01:18,524 --> 00:01:20,724 Speaker 1: So before we get into what's happening right now, I 16 00:01:20,764 --> 00:01:24,044 Speaker 1: think it's really interesting to kind of position this a 17 00:01:24,044 --> 00:01:28,524 Speaker 1: little bit historically and give our listeners who may not remember, 18 00:01:28,564 --> 00:01:31,124 Speaker 1: you know, their US history one oh one, a little 19 00:01:31,124 --> 00:01:34,244 Speaker 1: bit of a background of what jerrymandering is and where 20 00:01:34,284 --> 00:01:40,364 Speaker 1: it actually came from. So the original term jerrymander, it 21 00:01:40,404 --> 00:01:43,684 Speaker 1: was first used in eighteen twelve in the Boston Gazette 22 00:01:44,164 --> 00:01:52,684 Speaker 1: and it refers to figure Governor Elbridge Jerry. He was basically, yes, 23 00:01:52,804 --> 00:01:56,084 Speaker 1: good old Elbridge. I still it's so funny. So I 24 00:01:56,124 --> 00:01:59,124 Speaker 1: obviously did a little refresh before this segment, but I 25 00:01:59,204 --> 00:02:01,844 Speaker 1: remember that name so well from my history class because 26 00:02:01,844 --> 00:02:04,564 Speaker 1: I was like, Elbridge Jerry, Like, how do you ever 27 00:02:04,844 --> 00:02:10,044 Speaker 1: forget the name Elbridge? Anyway, So he was a a 28 00:02:10,164 --> 00:02:14,524 Speaker 1: Democratic Republican and for people once again who need a 29 00:02:14,804 --> 00:02:18,724 Speaker 1: US history one oh one refresher, the Democratic Republican Party 30 00:02:18,804 --> 00:02:25,004 Speaker 1: would go on to become the Democratic Party right under 31 00:02:25,044 --> 00:02:25,804 Speaker 1: Andrew Jackson. 32 00:02:25,924 --> 00:02:29,284 Speaker 2: So you have these leftists saying that Democrats are really Republicans. 33 00:02:29,284 --> 00:02:31,244 Speaker 2: It's kind of it's kind of true. 34 00:02:31,524 --> 00:02:35,924 Speaker 1: Yeah. So basically, yeah, the party told him, you know, 35 00:02:36,084 --> 00:02:40,364 Speaker 1: we need to kind of do this redistricting in Massachusetts 36 00:02:40,444 --> 00:02:45,684 Speaker 1: right during the state Senate elections. And Jerry actually got 37 00:02:45,724 --> 00:02:48,284 Speaker 1: a bad rep on this because he disagreed with the 38 00:02:48,324 --> 00:02:53,044 Speaker 1: proposal and he said he found it quote highly disagreeable 39 00:02:53,524 --> 00:02:56,124 Speaker 1: end quote. But he was the one who signed the 40 00:02:56,164 --> 00:02:59,404 Speaker 1: bill in eighteen twelve. So his name is the one 41 00:02:59,444 --> 00:03:03,284 Speaker 1: associated with this distinction and the reason it's called Jerry 42 00:03:03,324 --> 00:03:06,724 Speaker 1: Mandering comes from obviously his last name, but also that 43 00:03:07,484 --> 00:03:11,884 Speaker 1: the map looked like a salamander basically, So it was 44 00:03:12,044 --> 00:03:15,724 Speaker 1: such a weirdly drawn map in order to try to 45 00:03:15,804 --> 00:03:16,204 Speaker 1: get the. 46 00:03:16,164 --> 00:03:20,804 Speaker 2: Boats, I mean, Massachusets a little bit of weird looking 47 00:03:20,844 --> 00:03:23,244 Speaker 2: stay right, you got that fucking cape Ki. Look, you 48 00:03:23,284 --> 00:03:26,204 Speaker 2: got like a lot of and it's very square on 49 00:03:26,244 --> 00:03:28,564 Speaker 2: the left end. I think it used to cover more territory. 50 00:03:28,564 --> 00:03:30,524 Speaker 2: I didn't, mass just used to have some of Vermont 51 00:03:30,564 --> 00:03:33,604 Speaker 2: and stuff like that. But like, you know, you're gonna 52 00:03:33,604 --> 00:03:36,484 Speaker 2: get some weird looking shapes if you have a fractal coastline, 53 00:03:36,724 --> 00:03:40,084 Speaker 2: like the beautiful coastline you have outside of Massachusetts. 54 00:03:40,564 --> 00:03:42,244 Speaker 1: It is it is so you are going to get 55 00:03:42,244 --> 00:03:44,604 Speaker 1: some weird shapes. But this one was weird enough that it, 56 00:03:44,764 --> 00:03:47,884 Speaker 1: you know, prompted an entire term. No one actually knows 57 00:03:48,164 --> 00:03:51,684 Speaker 1: who coined the term to begin with. But yeah, so 58 00:03:51,764 --> 00:03:55,924 Speaker 1: that's the that's the origin of the term. And I 59 00:03:55,964 --> 00:04:00,204 Speaker 1: think that if we if we actually then look at 60 00:04:00,244 --> 00:04:04,844 Speaker 1: the history, we see that in the past, you know, 61 00:04:05,044 --> 00:04:09,564 Speaker 1: the Democrats knew how to fight dirty, right, Like if 62 00:04:09,604 --> 00:04:12,644 Speaker 1: we look at the Democratic Party of the eighteen hundreds, 63 00:04:12,684 --> 00:04:17,244 Speaker 1: like with the political bosses, they like, they really fought 64 00:04:17,284 --> 00:04:19,924 Speaker 1: tooth and nail to get those votes, and they did 65 00:04:19,964 --> 00:04:23,044 Speaker 1: everything they could to make sure that their districts had 66 00:04:23,084 --> 00:04:26,284 Speaker 1: the votes they needed. So even though today, you know 67 00:04:26,404 --> 00:04:29,844 Speaker 1: this is happening in Texas and you know, Democrats, especially 68 00:04:29,884 --> 00:04:32,044 Speaker 1: since the nineteen seventies, have really kind of tried to 69 00:04:32,044 --> 00:04:33,924 Speaker 1: step back and tried to say, you know, you can't 70 00:04:34,324 --> 00:04:38,084 Speaker 1: do this. You cannot manipulate districts to try to get 71 00:04:38,204 --> 00:04:42,884 Speaker 1: votes for one specific party. That's not the way democracy works. They, 72 00:04:43,204 --> 00:04:45,964 Speaker 1: you know, have tried to kind of put that party 73 00:04:46,004 --> 00:04:52,124 Speaker 1: boss history behind them. But I think that it's very 74 00:04:52,164 --> 00:04:55,204 Speaker 1: interesting just to keep in the back of your mind 75 00:04:55,244 --> 00:04:57,564 Speaker 1: that this was not always the case, right, that this 76 00:04:57,844 --> 00:05:01,204 Speaker 1: is the party that originated the practice, and that it 77 00:05:01,404 --> 00:05:05,244 Speaker 1: used to be everyone brought their boxing gloves to the 78 00:05:05,364 --> 00:05:07,884 Speaker 1: ring in the past, and then it changed. Right, So 79 00:05:08,484 --> 00:05:10,924 Speaker 1: now we're in a very different situation. But if we 80 00:05:11,004 --> 00:05:14,444 Speaker 1: go back to the eighteen hundreds, the parties were quite 81 00:05:14,484 --> 00:05:17,924 Speaker 1: different and there have been I think people would say 82 00:05:17,924 --> 00:05:21,524 Speaker 1: there's been progress, right, But now, Nate, if you want 83 00:05:21,564 --> 00:05:23,764 Speaker 1: to bring us to the present day. 84 00:05:23,924 --> 00:05:28,644 Speaker 2: The Constitution requires that after every census every decade that 85 00:05:29,604 --> 00:05:33,524 Speaker 2: states are responsible the apportion members based on the census 86 00:05:33,564 --> 00:05:36,684 Speaker 2: to the House of Representatives, and that states are responsible 87 00:05:36,764 --> 00:05:40,924 Speaker 2: for setting their own boundaries without a lot of limits, 88 00:05:40,964 --> 00:05:44,964 Speaker 2: at least based on how recent courts have decided this right. 89 00:05:45,164 --> 00:05:47,444 Speaker 2: There are some limits based on the Voting Rights Act, 90 00:05:47,844 --> 00:05:50,004 Speaker 2: where you want to have enough seats that are representative 91 00:05:50,044 --> 00:05:53,204 Speaker 2: of black and Hispanic voters and sometimes Asian Americans, they 92 00:05:53,244 --> 00:05:57,244 Speaker 2: meet certain thresholds. Apart from that, though, the Roberts Court 93 00:05:57,284 --> 00:06:01,684 Speaker 2: has said that, hey, this is a legislative decision. They 94 00:06:01,724 --> 00:06:04,644 Speaker 2: are elections to Congress. The Constitution doesn't say a lot 95 00:06:04,684 --> 00:06:07,324 Speaker 2: about them. And so therefore, if Congress wants to implement 96 00:06:07,684 --> 00:06:11,764 Speaker 2: more procedures are redistricting, they're in charge of elections. They 97 00:06:12,204 --> 00:06:15,484 Speaker 2: have to do that. Except nothing has really happened right now. 98 00:06:15,724 --> 00:06:20,084 Speaker 2: Throughout history, there have been periodic periods. I'm redundant there right. 99 00:06:20,164 --> 00:06:23,924 Speaker 2: There have been feints and spells where there was more 100 00:06:24,084 --> 00:06:28,044 Speaker 2: or less mid decade redistricting, meaning that like, there's nothine 101 00:06:28,124 --> 00:06:31,204 Speaker 2: new census, but we're going to reset boundaries in advance 102 00:06:31,244 --> 00:06:34,084 Speaker 2: of the next election. Anyway, this sometimes happens because of 103 00:06:34,164 --> 00:06:36,684 Speaker 2: court decisions where a court rules at a map is illegal. 104 00:06:37,124 --> 00:06:40,204 Speaker 2: They can also happen strategically in two thousand and two 105 00:06:41,084 --> 00:06:43,564 Speaker 2: or two thousand and three. Rather, Texas used to be 106 00:06:43,724 --> 00:06:47,644 Speaker 2: kind of a democratic state. I was going to say 107 00:06:47,644 --> 00:06:50,364 Speaker 2: a blue state, but not really in the classical way 108 00:06:50,404 --> 00:06:51,844 Speaker 2: that like we think of a blue state. It's just 109 00:06:51,844 --> 00:06:56,724 Speaker 2: you had like conservative Southern Democrats. For example, LBJ was 110 00:06:56,724 --> 00:07:00,124 Speaker 2: from Texas, of course, beginning in the mid two thousands. 111 00:07:00,204 --> 00:07:03,084 Speaker 1: LBJ of course was the administration that passed the Voting 112 00:07:03,124 --> 00:07:04,604 Speaker 1: Rights Act in nineteen sixty five. 113 00:07:04,764 --> 00:07:06,604 Speaker 2: Of course, with a very liberal the War in court 114 00:07:06,684 --> 00:07:09,164 Speaker 2: right in two thousand and three year beginning of the 115 00:07:09,204 --> 00:07:13,804 Speaker 2: mid early twands late nineteen nineties, the South, the conservative 116 00:07:13,804 --> 00:07:16,924 Speaker 2: Democrats in the South began to be replaced by Republicans. Right, 117 00:07:17,004 --> 00:07:20,364 Speaker 2: So two thousand and three Texas thought that its map 118 00:07:21,124 --> 00:07:24,204 Speaker 2: wasn't republican enough, and they redistricted in the middle of 119 00:07:24,324 --> 00:07:27,724 Speaker 2: the decade. Now courts have rule that this is probably 120 00:07:27,724 --> 00:07:29,644 Speaker 2: fine too. If Congress wants to print that, they can 121 00:07:29,684 --> 00:07:31,564 Speaker 2: also pass along. I mean, it's kind of like a 122 00:07:31,604 --> 00:07:34,404 Speaker 2: frequent technique of the Supreme Court, which I don't think 123 00:07:34,524 --> 00:07:37,404 Speaker 2: is like inherently terrible, right, But when you have kind 124 00:07:37,404 --> 00:07:40,884 Speaker 2: of a dysfunctional Congress, it's a very partisan and very 125 00:07:41,804 --> 00:07:43,604 Speaker 2: you know, especially in the gp CA. So I think 126 00:07:43,604 --> 00:07:45,644 Speaker 2: this is not totally of both sides things, but very much, 127 00:07:45,764 --> 00:07:48,844 Speaker 2: very much like enthrall is that the right word, very 128 00:07:48,924 --> 00:07:52,084 Speaker 2: much at the command of Trump. You're not gonna have 129 00:07:52,084 --> 00:07:55,404 Speaker 2: a lot of buy trust. Yeah, I'm not gonna have 130 00:07:55,404 --> 00:07:58,004 Speaker 2: a lot of bipartisan legislation passed. Right, So it's kind 131 00:07:58,084 --> 00:08:02,764 Speaker 2: of a free for all, and Trump, being a maximizer 132 00:08:02,804 --> 00:08:06,564 Speaker 2: as far as strategic gain is saying, has told Republicans 133 00:08:06,564 --> 00:08:09,404 Speaker 2: in Texas who are initially reluctant, Hey, we can probably 134 00:08:09,484 --> 00:08:12,564 Speaker 2: squeeze five more seats out of this map, based in 135 00:08:12,604 --> 00:08:14,044 Speaker 2: the fact that Trump had a really good year in 136 00:08:14,084 --> 00:08:18,324 Speaker 2: Texas in twenty twenty four, and in particular, Hispanics in 137 00:08:18,364 --> 00:08:22,044 Speaker 2: like the Rio Grande Valley have shifted very republican. The 138 00:08:22,084 --> 00:08:24,564 Speaker 2: suburbs have not had this democratic shift that they thought, 139 00:08:24,724 --> 00:08:28,484 Speaker 2: so they can squeeze more seats out of the map 140 00:08:28,964 --> 00:08:32,644 Speaker 2: than they currently have. Right. My colleague Eli McCown dawson 141 00:08:33,244 --> 00:08:36,084 Speaker 2: did an analysis of this at Silver Bulletin. It probably 142 00:08:36,124 --> 00:08:38,164 Speaker 2: will not be the five seats they claim. That's kind 143 00:08:38,164 --> 00:08:40,724 Speaker 2: of the high end right call it like one to five, 144 00:08:40,804 --> 00:08:44,724 Speaker 2: depending on whether Democrats rebound among hispanic expected value of 145 00:08:44,764 --> 00:08:48,164 Speaker 2: maybe three seats, right, which, you know, three seats might 146 00:08:48,164 --> 00:08:49,844 Speaker 2: not seem a huge deal of four hundred and thirty 147 00:08:49,884 --> 00:08:53,204 Speaker 2: five members of the House of Representatives, However, because so 148 00:08:53,244 --> 00:08:56,324 Speaker 2: many other seats are jerry mattered, because voters are so polarized, 149 00:08:56,564 --> 00:09:00,284 Speaker 2: there might only be a couple dozen competitive races, and 150 00:09:00,364 --> 00:09:03,844 Speaker 2: so three seats in Texas matter a fair bit. 151 00:09:04,044 --> 00:09:04,284 Speaker 1: Yeah. 152 00:09:04,364 --> 00:09:08,004 Speaker 2: Governor Gavin Newsom of California has proposed to have an 153 00:09:08,044 --> 00:09:11,524 Speaker 2: even more aggressive districting plan in California. It's currently done 154 00:09:11,564 --> 00:09:15,164 Speaker 2: by a non partisan commission. You're welcome, by the way, 155 00:09:15,324 --> 00:09:19,844 Speaker 2: to roll your eyes a little bit, just a little 156 00:09:19,844 --> 00:09:24,564 Speaker 2: bit at non partisan commissions. It's kind of you know, look, Maria, 157 00:09:24,764 --> 00:09:27,524 Speaker 2: sometimes when groups of experts get together, they tend to 158 00:09:27,604 --> 00:09:31,564 Speaker 2: favor in current times Democrats, right, and so like, so 159 00:09:31,684 --> 00:09:36,284 Speaker 2: I would say it's but still California now could go 160 00:09:36,324 --> 00:09:38,044 Speaker 2: and be like, we're just going to go back and 161 00:09:38,084 --> 00:09:40,404 Speaker 2: restore the power to the state lunch later. And because 162 00:09:40,444 --> 00:09:43,684 Speaker 2: they have super majorities, we can jurymander as aggressively as 163 00:09:43,724 --> 00:09:46,884 Speaker 2: we want, as unapologetically really as we want, subject only 164 00:09:46,924 --> 00:09:49,444 Speaker 2: to the Voting Rights Amendment or Voting Rights Act, it's 165 00:09:49,484 --> 00:09:52,364 Speaker 2: not amendment. Excuse me, because, of course, a lot of 166 00:09:52,364 --> 00:09:59,324 Speaker 2: minority groups in California, appolling by a Newsome affiliated group today, 167 00:09:59,924 --> 00:10:02,604 Speaker 2: claim this measure has a big lead in California if 168 00:10:02,644 --> 00:10:03,884 Speaker 2: it were to make it in the ballot on the 169 00:10:03,884 --> 00:10:08,284 Speaker 2: ballot in next year's midterms, so that could reciprocate. Right, 170 00:10:08,324 --> 00:10:11,564 Speaker 2: But yeah, the the theme here is that Democrats are 171 00:10:12,644 --> 00:10:15,884 Speaker 2: are always a half step behind. Right. One important thing 172 00:10:15,884 --> 00:10:18,964 Speaker 2: that happened is that, you know, in the twenty ten 173 00:10:19,124 --> 00:10:22,044 Speaker 2: so Republicans had a really really good mid term in 174 00:10:22,084 --> 00:10:26,684 Speaker 2: twenty ten because Barack Obama started out very very popular, 175 00:10:26,724 --> 00:10:29,564 Speaker 2: tried to do healthcare, quickly became quite unpopular, backlash against 176 00:10:29,604 --> 00:10:33,324 Speaker 2: the liberal, backlash against the first African American president, et cetera, 177 00:10:33,364 --> 00:10:37,004 Speaker 2: et cetera. Right, however, twenty ten is a really important 178 00:10:37,044 --> 00:10:41,484 Speaker 2: election because that dictates congression and resting for the rest 179 00:10:41,524 --> 00:10:44,084 Speaker 2: of the decade pretty much. Right, So in twenty ten, 180 00:10:44,524 --> 00:10:48,004 Speaker 2: Democrats were disadvantaged. The next time around, in twenty twenty, 181 00:10:48,524 --> 00:10:51,044 Speaker 2: Democrats had had a comparatively better year. They had a 182 00:10:51,084 --> 00:10:54,044 Speaker 2: good year in twenty eighteen, which carries over into the 183 00:10:54,884 --> 00:10:58,084 Speaker 2: for four year cycles into state legislatures, and so forth. 184 00:10:58,124 --> 00:11:00,684 Speaker 2: So basically since twenty twenty, since twenty twenty two, I 185 00:11:00,684 --> 00:11:02,364 Speaker 2: should say, the maps that went into place after the 186 00:11:02,364 --> 00:11:06,044 Speaker 2: twenty twenty census, the GP advantage to the twenty tens 187 00:11:06,364 --> 00:11:09,804 Speaker 2: is gone, in part because the Roulette wheel landed on 188 00:11:09,804 --> 00:11:11,684 Speaker 2: a bitter number for Democrats in terms of the timing 189 00:11:12,044 --> 00:11:15,964 Speaker 2: of all this, but also because Democrats have gotten more 190 00:11:16,284 --> 00:11:18,884 Speaker 2: aggressive in states like New York all not of course 191 00:11:18,924 --> 00:11:20,884 Speaker 2: it was they could be right. Democrats are often more 192 00:11:20,964 --> 00:11:24,764 Speaker 2: risk averse. Incumbents are terrified of having to fight other 193 00:11:24,764 --> 00:11:27,644 Speaker 2: incumbents are losing any you know, of having a ninety 194 00:11:27,644 --> 00:11:30,044 Speaker 2: seven percent chance of winning instead of ninety nine percent. 195 00:11:30,084 --> 00:11:33,564 Speaker 2: Even in Texas, Republicans were initially reluctant. But that's kind 196 00:11:33,564 --> 00:11:35,444 Speaker 2: of a brief I guess it was more than thirty seconds. 197 00:11:35,444 --> 00:11:37,204 Speaker 2: That was like a brief five minute history of this. 198 00:11:38,204 --> 00:11:41,284 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think that. I think that the last 199 00:11:41,284 --> 00:11:45,524 Speaker 1: point you made, let's just highlight the reason that Texas 200 00:11:45,604 --> 00:11:48,124 Speaker 1: was reluctant not because they were opposed to gerrymandering. It 201 00:11:48,164 --> 00:11:50,684 Speaker 1: was because they didn't know if they could redraw the 202 00:11:50,724 --> 00:11:54,124 Speaker 1: districts in a favorable way, because they were afraid that 203 00:11:54,164 --> 00:11:58,044 Speaker 1: there would be too many Democratic voters basically in other 204 00:11:58,084 --> 00:12:00,124 Speaker 1: districts if you split it. But now they're like, oh, no, 205 00:12:00,164 --> 00:12:02,124 Speaker 1: I think we can do it. I think we're fine. 206 00:12:02,524 --> 00:12:05,404 Speaker 1: So it wasn't like a principled opposition. It was a wait, 207 00:12:05,564 --> 00:12:10,044 Speaker 1: can we get away with this and get the vote? Which, 208 00:12:10,124 --> 00:12:13,244 Speaker 1: by the way, like that's not to say like, ooh 209 00:12:13,324 --> 00:12:18,004 Speaker 1: bad Republicans. Like jerrymandering has always been an incredibly political 210 00:12:18,044 --> 00:12:21,284 Speaker 1: thing with the sole purpose of trying to get power 211 00:12:21,364 --> 00:12:24,804 Speaker 1: for your group. So that should be your number one concern, Right, 212 00:12:24,884 --> 00:12:29,124 Speaker 1: can I get by by forcing these like dubious practices? 213 00:12:29,204 --> 00:12:30,964 Speaker 1: Can I get the votes I need? And if the 214 00:12:30,964 --> 00:12:33,084 Speaker 1: answer is maybe not, then maybe you don't want to 215 00:12:33,084 --> 00:12:36,764 Speaker 1: expend political capital on doing that. Now. What I think 216 00:12:36,924 --> 00:12:40,284 Speaker 1: the kind of another big issue here though, which we're 217 00:12:40,324 --> 00:12:44,244 Speaker 1: starting to see, is like anything that you do to me, 218 00:12:44,364 --> 00:12:47,004 Speaker 1: I can do back to you. Right, So if Texas 219 00:12:47,044 --> 00:12:50,964 Speaker 1: starts this game and republic and kind of Republicans try 220 00:12:51,004 --> 00:12:53,364 Speaker 1: to do what they're what they're trying to do in 221 00:12:53,404 --> 00:12:58,844 Speaker 1: Texas with the redistricting, then you know, as Gavin Newsom, 222 00:12:59,004 --> 00:13:03,964 Speaker 1: as Kathy Hochel has also said in New York, like fine, 223 00:13:04,244 --> 00:13:05,804 Speaker 1: you know you want to do it, We'll do it, 224 00:13:06,044 --> 00:13:08,844 Speaker 1: and we're going to redistrict our straits too, and there's 225 00:13:08,884 --> 00:13:13,404 Speaker 1: nothing stopping then people from basically getting in the ring 226 00:13:13,484 --> 00:13:16,724 Speaker 1: and getting starting to fight dirty. And I don't know, 227 00:13:17,044 --> 00:13:19,484 Speaker 1: I mean, personally, I don't think that that's the way 228 00:13:19,524 --> 00:13:22,044 Speaker 1: we should be going. And I think that your idea 229 00:13:22,044 --> 00:13:25,404 Speaker 1: of a constitutional amendment against this is not a bad one, 230 00:13:25,444 --> 00:13:28,764 Speaker 1: because the Voting Rights Act has been like in the 231 00:13:28,844 --> 00:13:32,404 Speaker 1: last five years, the course have definitely chipped away at 232 00:13:32,524 --> 00:13:35,764 Speaker 1: the power of the Voting Rights Act. And according to 233 00:13:35,804 --> 00:13:37,924 Speaker 1: the Voting Rights Act, you can't redistrict in a way 234 00:13:37,924 --> 00:13:42,564 Speaker 1: that dilutes the votes of minority voters. And it's being 235 00:13:42,604 --> 00:13:46,484 Speaker 1: completely tossed on its head these days, right with Texas 236 00:13:46,484 --> 00:13:51,044 Speaker 1: saying well, you can't have too many minority voters of 237 00:13:51,084 --> 00:13:53,684 Speaker 1: different minorities in one district so that then they become 238 00:13:53,724 --> 00:13:57,524 Speaker 1: a majority, right like such like absolutely backwards logic that 239 00:13:57,604 --> 00:14:00,444 Speaker 1: has actually a very little legal basis. And so we're 240 00:14:00,444 --> 00:14:05,244 Speaker 1: in a very interesting situation where the Act that has 241 00:14:05,364 --> 00:14:10,044 Speaker 1: kind of been holding the line against gerrymandering or multiple 242 00:14:10,084 --> 00:14:11,484 Speaker 1: decades is fraying. 243 00:14:12,004 --> 00:14:15,124 Speaker 2: Well, would I would push back. I mean, it's a 244 00:14:15,244 --> 00:14:17,124 Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, until fairlure recently, you didn't 245 00:14:17,124 --> 00:14:20,124 Speaker 2: have a lot of opportunity to create majority non white districts, right, 246 00:14:21,604 --> 00:14:24,004 Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, you know, if you have hopes 247 00:14:24,044 --> 00:14:26,724 Speaker 2: of using the Voting Rights Act now, the Civil Rights Act, 248 00:14:26,724 --> 00:14:30,084 Speaker 2: the Voting Rights Act as a kind of crutch to 249 00:14:30,124 --> 00:14:33,564 Speaker 2: rely on for gerrymandering, A, it's probably gonna be weekend. 250 00:14:33,564 --> 00:14:35,324 Speaker 2: And B I'm not sure what's helping democrats that much 251 00:14:35,364 --> 00:14:37,924 Speaker 2: in the first place. Again, maybe get for other reasons, 252 00:14:37,964 --> 00:14:40,884 Speaker 2: but but you know, it's more that the Roberts Court 253 00:14:40,964 --> 00:14:44,804 Speaker 2: said that this is not our job to regulate what 254 00:14:44,924 --> 00:14:48,564 Speaker 2: states do. Congress has the power to regulate elections. That's 255 00:14:48,564 --> 00:14:53,164 Speaker 2: pretty clearly enumerated in the Constitution. And also, like it 256 00:14:53,244 --> 00:14:57,444 Speaker 2: is kind of hard to have constitutional standards, right. So 257 00:14:57,604 --> 00:15:01,844 Speaker 2: one thing that has been upheld is contiguity, right where 258 00:15:01,884 --> 00:15:05,924 Speaker 2: it means that like I can't take the East Village 259 00:15:06,604 --> 00:15:11,604 Speaker 2: and then Merchantry District with Buffalo right, and then everything else, No, 260 00:15:11,724 --> 00:15:16,124 Speaker 2: I can't. Some people argue for compactness, which means the 261 00:15:16,164 --> 00:15:20,124 Speaker 2: maps have to have logical shapes. How you define that? 262 00:15:20,124 --> 00:15:22,204 Speaker 2: Does it look like a salamander? What's a little bit objective? There? 263 00:15:22,244 --> 00:15:25,684 Speaker 2: Various subjective right? There are algorithms that you can use, 264 00:15:25,724 --> 00:15:30,044 Speaker 2: but like, it's not a national requirement. Only contiguity has upheld, 265 00:15:30,444 --> 00:15:35,724 Speaker 2: so there is some flexibility. But yeah, Democrats have been 266 00:15:35,724 --> 00:15:39,244 Speaker 2: a half step behind in this game. I do want 267 00:15:39,244 --> 00:15:40,484 Speaker 2: to say if we look at kind of like the 268 00:15:40,604 --> 00:15:45,124 Speaker 2: very long term equilibrium, right, I mean, first of all, 269 00:15:45,444 --> 00:15:49,684 Speaker 2: this is a somewhat predictable move. When people say, oh, 270 00:15:49,724 --> 00:15:55,124 Speaker 2: this is unprecedented, it's not unprecedented, right, It's pretty predictable. 271 00:15:55,124 --> 00:15:58,204 Speaker 2: It's pretty well protected by current constitutional law that will 272 00:15:58,244 --> 00:15:59,964 Speaker 2: remain in place so long as we have a conservative 273 00:15:59,964 --> 00:16:03,724 Speaker 2: Supreme Court almost for certain right, it has happened at times, 274 00:16:03,724 --> 00:16:06,324 Speaker 2: it's been threatened at other times, and so like, this 275 00:16:06,404 --> 00:16:09,964 Speaker 2: is a fairly predictable escalation. And I don't think it's 276 00:16:09,964 --> 00:16:15,484 Speaker 2: in the category of like authoritarianism per se. It's more 277 00:16:15,724 --> 00:16:22,244 Speaker 2: like maximizing what's pretty clearly within the rules constitutionally, you know. 278 00:16:22,324 --> 00:16:25,044 Speaker 2: With that said, I do feel remister for like talking 279 00:16:25,084 --> 00:16:27,644 Speaker 2: about some of the problems of gerrymandering. First of all, 280 00:16:27,684 --> 00:16:30,084 Speaker 2: it means that in a large majority of districts, perhaps 281 00:16:30,204 --> 00:16:32,684 Speaker 2: ninety percent for Congress, doesn't matter, it's going to be 282 00:16:32,724 --> 00:16:37,084 Speaker 2: democratic Republican combined with all the polarization that we have today. Secondly, 283 00:16:37,124 --> 00:16:40,324 Speaker 2: you have a bunch of fucking wackos in Congress, right, 284 00:16:40,564 --> 00:16:42,484 Speaker 2: maybe more on the right and the left. Maybe some 285 00:16:42,524 --> 00:16:44,644 Speaker 2: readers disagree and can point to left wing, the squad 286 00:16:44,684 --> 00:16:46,284 Speaker 2: or whatever they want. And I don't mean to equivocate those 287 00:16:46,324 --> 00:16:49,964 Speaker 2: exactly right, but you know, when you have members that 288 00:16:50,044 --> 00:16:53,284 Speaker 2: have no chance of losing a general election, they even 289 00:16:53,324 --> 00:16:55,444 Speaker 2: further to the right or the left because they're afraid 290 00:16:55,444 --> 00:16:59,564 Speaker 2: of losing a primary. They come more parliamentarian where they 291 00:16:59,564 --> 00:17:03,644 Speaker 2: do the bidding of Trump or or Biden for that matter. Right, 292 00:17:03,684 --> 00:17:05,644 Speaker 2: you can count and there are a handful of dissident, 293 00:17:06,324 --> 00:17:10,124 Speaker 2: contrarian whatever you want to call them, right, independent minded 294 00:17:10,364 --> 00:17:12,084 Speaker 2: representatives and Sanders, but there are a few. You can 295 00:17:12,124 --> 00:17:15,044 Speaker 2: kind of count them on one hand, more and more 296 00:17:15,204 --> 00:17:18,804 Speaker 2: and more, and I'd argue that's not good for the country. Right, 297 00:17:18,804 --> 00:17:23,244 Speaker 2: we have not seen, you know, I think compared to Congress, 298 00:17:23,404 --> 00:17:28,364 Speaker 2: the courts have done a relatively good job of restraining Trump. Right, 299 00:17:28,804 --> 00:17:31,244 Speaker 2: Congress has not Congress. And again we're going to piss 300 00:17:31,244 --> 00:17:34,004 Speaker 2: off certain readers, but like listeners, but like you know, 301 00:17:34,044 --> 00:17:36,604 Speaker 2: Congress did not pushed back against RFK Junior or Telsea 302 00:17:36,604 --> 00:17:38,924 Speaker 2: Gabbard or Pete eggs At being appointed to their respective 303 00:17:39,284 --> 00:17:42,964 Speaker 2: cabinet positions. Personally, I think that is these are some 304 00:17:43,044 --> 00:17:46,324 Speaker 2: of the worst parts of Trump administration so far. Congress, 305 00:17:46,324 --> 00:17:49,484 Speaker 2: which is supposed to have authority over tariffs and Trump 306 00:17:49,564 --> 00:17:53,124 Speaker 2: is interpreting the precedents very liberally, right, has not really 307 00:17:53,164 --> 00:17:56,044 Speaker 2: pushed back very much on that. Right, we saw how 308 00:17:56,084 --> 00:17:59,084 Speaker 2: few members of Congress hoted to impeach Trump even after 309 00:17:59,204 --> 00:18:03,284 Speaker 2: January sixth, and the handful who did, very few of 310 00:18:03,324 --> 00:18:05,684 Speaker 2: them remain in office today, right, So this is a 311 00:18:05,684 --> 00:18:09,364 Speaker 2: big problem. They kind of create self perpetuating polarization. 312 00:18:11,724 --> 00:18:28,604 Speaker 1: And we'll be back right after this when you know, 313 00:18:28,724 --> 00:18:31,724 Speaker 1: after last week, I was thinking about kind of you 314 00:18:31,844 --> 00:18:34,244 Speaker 1: saying that this should be a constitutional amendment, and I 315 00:18:34,724 --> 00:18:37,164 Speaker 1: think that, you know, you've just made a lot of 316 00:18:37,244 --> 00:18:41,124 Speaker 1: points for why that should be the case, in the 317 00:18:41,164 --> 00:18:43,364 Speaker 1: sense that also if we kind of go back to 318 00:18:43,404 --> 00:18:46,644 Speaker 1: one of the core elements of the show, like how 319 00:18:46,724 --> 00:18:49,884 Speaker 1: we how we model this right from a game theory perspective, 320 00:18:50,564 --> 00:18:54,804 Speaker 1: the outcome as of now like doesn't doesn't look great, right, Like, 321 00:18:55,084 --> 00:18:57,164 Speaker 1: we we know how this game is going to play 322 00:18:57,204 --> 00:19:02,004 Speaker 1: out if we continue playing it this way, and it's 323 00:19:02,044 --> 00:19:04,804 Speaker 1: it's not a very it's not a great game game 324 00:19:04,804 --> 00:19:07,804 Speaker 1: tree that we're on right now, right, Like, it's it's 325 00:19:07,884 --> 00:19:11,004 Speaker 1: bad options, Like what are if you're the Democrats, right 326 00:19:11,084 --> 00:19:13,644 Speaker 1: and you're looking at what's happening in Texas, you have 327 00:19:13,724 --> 00:19:16,164 Speaker 1: the option to say, no, you know, they go low, 328 00:19:16,244 --> 00:19:19,444 Speaker 1: we go high. Yeah, that hasn't worked well and that's 329 00:19:19,524 --> 00:19:20,564 Speaker 1: probably not going to work. 330 00:19:21,524 --> 00:19:23,444 Speaker 2: We're going to go it's tit for tat strategy. 331 00:19:23,524 --> 00:19:25,924 Speaker 1: Right, they go, Now, now it's definitely tit for tat. 332 00:19:25,964 --> 00:19:28,044 Speaker 1: It's not tit for two tots. Well, maybe it's been 333 00:19:28,044 --> 00:19:31,404 Speaker 1: tip for two tats. Right, They've they've been more than 334 00:19:31,444 --> 00:19:34,204 Speaker 1: one step behind, and they've let kind of they've let 335 00:19:34,244 --> 00:19:36,404 Speaker 1: it devolve a little bit. They're like, well, let's wait, 336 00:19:36,484 --> 00:19:39,324 Speaker 1: maybe maybe that tat wasn't really a tat, so maybe 337 00:19:39,404 --> 00:19:42,884 Speaker 1: they did start playing that. But now they've realized that, no, 338 00:19:43,084 --> 00:19:45,404 Speaker 1: that the tats are going to keep coming, and so 339 00:19:45,524 --> 00:19:49,124 Speaker 1: you can you can no longer, you can no longer 340 00:19:49,124 --> 00:19:51,724 Speaker 1: sit back, and you do have to start retaliating, in 341 00:19:51,764 --> 00:19:54,684 Speaker 1: which case, as we've talked about before, you get that 342 00:19:54,764 --> 00:19:57,364 Speaker 1: downward spiral where the payoffs are just worse for everyone. 343 00:19:57,804 --> 00:20:00,724 Speaker 1: And as you say, Nate, this isn't good for the 344 00:20:00,724 --> 00:20:04,324 Speaker 1: country on numerous levels. Like let's just let's forget you know, 345 00:20:04,684 --> 00:20:07,244 Speaker 1: voting rights, civil rights, all of those. Let's just say 346 00:20:07,644 --> 00:20:12,724 Speaker 1: that a democracy is good if people are afraid that 347 00:20:14,004 --> 00:20:16,764 Speaker 1: voters might not elect them, right, if they feel like 348 00:20:16,884 --> 00:20:20,924 Speaker 1: they are accountable to the people that they represent, if 349 00:20:20,924 --> 00:20:24,724 Speaker 1: that accountability is lost. Right, if you know that no 350 00:20:24,724 --> 00:20:27,524 Speaker 1: matter what I do, I am going to get re 351 00:20:27,604 --> 00:20:30,724 Speaker 1: elected with ninety nine percent certainty. Sure ninety nine isn't 352 00:20:30,724 --> 00:20:33,124 Speaker 1: one hundred, But as long as you do that, you 353 00:20:33,164 --> 00:20:36,604 Speaker 1: are no longer representing your district. You're no longer representing 354 00:20:37,204 --> 00:20:40,364 Speaker 1: what the people of your district necessarily want. And sure 355 00:20:40,404 --> 00:20:44,084 Speaker 1: there might come a tipping point, but this isn't healthy 356 00:20:44,284 --> 00:20:47,164 Speaker 1: and you end up getting policies that you know, as 357 00:20:47,244 --> 00:20:50,724 Speaker 1: you said, enthrall to Trump right now, they're Trump dictated 358 00:20:50,764 --> 00:20:57,724 Speaker 1: whatever whoever's in power. It's not the premise of the democracy, right, 359 00:20:57,804 --> 00:20:59,564 Speaker 1: is that we elect leaders who are going to be 360 00:20:59,604 --> 00:21:02,884 Speaker 1: representing our interests in the best way possible. And that 361 00:21:02,924 --> 00:21:03,924 Speaker 1: premise gets broken. 362 00:21:04,324 --> 00:21:06,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, and to send a threshold for this, right, I mean, 363 00:21:06,884 --> 00:21:10,524 Speaker 2: you said ninety nine percent percent is like in Alabama 364 00:21:10,644 --> 00:21:13,084 Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen, I think it was or twenty nineteen. 365 00:21:13,124 --> 00:21:17,404 Speaker 2: There's a special election. Roy Moore, Judge Roy Moore lost 366 00:21:17,364 --> 00:21:19,924 Speaker 2: at special election to a Democrat just barely in Alabama 367 00:21:20,004 --> 00:21:23,804 Speaker 2: because he had been credibly accused. He denied the allegations 368 00:21:24,004 --> 00:21:28,884 Speaker 2: of repeated acts of sexual misconduct with women under the 369 00:21:28,924 --> 00:21:32,484 Speaker 2: age of eighteen. And that was enough for the people 370 00:21:32,524 --> 00:21:35,044 Speaker 2: of Alabama. Fifty one percent of us say that's too much, 371 00:21:35,284 --> 00:21:37,684 Speaker 2: but hey, that was in a pretty good environment for Democrats. 372 00:21:38,844 --> 00:21:40,684 Speaker 2: That was also in a time you know, it's five 373 00:21:40,724 --> 00:21:42,484 Speaker 2: years ago now, six years ago, seven years ago, a 374 00:21:42,524 --> 00:21:45,844 Speaker 2: little bit less polarized than now. So like, yeah, in Alabama, 375 00:21:45,884 --> 00:21:48,004 Speaker 2: by the way, is very red, right, but some of 376 00:21:48,004 --> 00:21:50,164 Speaker 2: these districts are like more read than Alabama. So you 377 00:21:50,204 --> 00:21:51,964 Speaker 2: might have we've done the modeling, right. You may have 378 00:21:52,004 --> 00:21:55,844 Speaker 2: a point one percent chance of losing your primary if 379 00:21:55,884 --> 00:21:57,484 Speaker 2: you put it into a logistic regression model, or not 380 00:21:57,524 --> 00:21:59,124 Speaker 2: your primary, your general election, right if you put it 381 00:21:59,164 --> 00:22:03,484 Speaker 2: into a logistic regression model. And so you know, polarization 382 00:22:03,684 --> 00:22:08,804 Speaker 2: is not the fault of the Constitution per se. But 383 00:22:09,044 --> 00:22:13,084 Speaker 2: like our constitution was probably not designed to deal with 384 00:22:13,124 --> 00:22:16,044 Speaker 2: the degree of partisanship. It's not a parliamentary system. Right, 385 00:22:16,084 --> 00:22:19,484 Speaker 2: we can have no confidence vote not inclined to deal 386 00:22:19,524 --> 00:22:23,644 Speaker 2: with a degree of partisan polarization that we have right now. 387 00:22:23,764 --> 00:22:28,244 Speaker 2: And this is a predictable escalation. I mean, you know, 388 00:22:28,644 --> 00:22:30,364 Speaker 2: the one Democrat has seems to get this. I saw 389 00:22:30,404 --> 00:22:34,324 Speaker 2: a betto betel or work speech. He's, of course down 390 00:22:34,364 --> 00:22:38,884 Speaker 2: in Texas trying to encourage Texas Democrats to flee the 391 00:22:38,884 --> 00:22:41,044 Speaker 2: state to avoiding a quorum. You can only do that 392 00:22:41,084 --> 00:22:43,084 Speaker 2: for so long before you have to see your family 393 00:22:43,444 --> 00:22:45,284 Speaker 2: and so forth. He's like, yeah, I don't care if 394 00:22:45,364 --> 00:22:47,364 Speaker 2: Rockms do it. We should preemptively do this. I think 395 00:22:47,404 --> 00:22:50,084 Speaker 2: it's actually smart, right, good for you, Beto right, which 396 00:22:50,124 --> 00:22:52,484 Speaker 2: is that like you can see where this where the 397 00:22:52,524 --> 00:22:57,964 Speaker 2: puck is going. Also, these things take time in California. Yes, 398 00:22:58,124 --> 00:23:01,164 Speaker 2: you have about initiative deadline. I don't know exactly when 399 00:23:01,204 --> 00:23:02,844 Speaker 2: it is, right, but it's going to be litigated in courts. 400 00:23:02,884 --> 00:23:05,004 Speaker 2: That's why it's all happening. You know. You might think 401 00:23:05,044 --> 00:23:07,404 Speaker 2: that like, okay, if Trump were really cunning about it, 402 00:23:07,444 --> 00:23:09,324 Speaker 2: that he would wait and kind of do a sneak attack. 403 00:23:09,844 --> 00:23:11,604 Speaker 2: If you do that, it's gonna get struck down by 404 00:23:11,644 --> 00:23:14,444 Speaker 2: courts or people might get skittish or techniques like you know, 405 00:23:14,564 --> 00:23:17,964 Speaker 2: all the Democrats go to Oklahoma that could actually work 406 00:23:18,004 --> 00:23:20,324 Speaker 2: in the short run. So I guess it's smart by 407 00:23:20,324 --> 00:23:22,764 Speaker 2: Trump to kick this off now. But given that they've 408 00:23:22,764 --> 00:23:24,524 Speaker 2: flagged it, and given that if it doesn't happen this 409 00:23:24,644 --> 00:23:27,764 Speaker 2: year in one state, it'll happen in other states, you know, 410 00:23:27,924 --> 00:23:31,964 Speaker 2: the cat is out of the bag. And Democrats are 411 00:23:33,284 --> 00:23:36,404 Speaker 2: I think being smart by understanding this, right, I mean, 412 00:23:36,564 --> 00:23:38,724 Speaker 2: I think they're trying to like they're trying to like 413 00:23:38,764 --> 00:23:41,804 Speaker 2: weave it into a narrative of like Republicans are terrible 414 00:23:41,844 --> 00:23:46,124 Speaker 2: for democracy, and we're reluctantly reciprocating. I mean, I don't know. 415 00:23:46,164 --> 00:23:48,964 Speaker 2: That's a little bit kind of too cute by half, right, 416 00:23:49,004 --> 00:23:51,444 Speaker 2: I mean it's a little bit like people say, Okay, well, Natee, 417 00:23:53,244 --> 00:23:57,084 Speaker 2: you support higher taxes on the rich. I'm not sure 418 00:23:57,124 --> 00:23:58,724 Speaker 2: I do or not when you live in a state 419 00:23:58,764 --> 00:24:00,804 Speaker 2: like New York. But let's ignore that for now, right, 420 00:24:01,684 --> 00:24:04,004 Speaker 2: maybe higher taxes on the rich in Alabama or something. 421 00:24:04,044 --> 00:24:07,324 Speaker 2: But like, but why don't you just give the government 422 00:24:07,324 --> 00:24:09,124 Speaker 2: more money yourself? It's like no, because I want, like 423 00:24:09,124 --> 00:24:12,844 Speaker 2: their to apply reciprocally to everybody, not just to me, right. 424 00:24:13,724 --> 00:24:15,844 Speaker 2: Maybe in the long term, if people get very dissatisfied, 425 00:24:15,844 --> 00:24:17,484 Speaker 2: they feel like the member of Congress is a wacko, 426 00:24:17,524 --> 00:24:19,764 Speaker 2: they feel like their vote doesn't matter, maybe you can 427 00:24:19,804 --> 00:24:23,284 Speaker 2: get a momentum for worse and type of of you know, 428 00:24:23,644 --> 00:24:27,564 Speaker 2: legislation or constitutional amendment, the former being much more likely. Right, 429 00:24:27,724 --> 00:24:28,444 Speaker 2: It's very hard. 430 00:24:28,484 --> 00:24:31,764 Speaker 1: Yeah. Constitutional amendments, by the way, are incredibly tough to pass. 431 00:24:32,524 --> 00:24:35,204 Speaker 1: So let's just throw that out there. It's really hard 432 00:24:35,204 --> 00:24:36,124 Speaker 1: to get those majorities. 433 00:24:36,164 --> 00:24:38,444 Speaker 2: The other thing is that, like you know, look, if 434 00:24:38,484 --> 00:24:43,084 Speaker 2: you have once a decade redistricting, then what's called a 435 00:24:43,164 --> 00:24:46,884 Speaker 2: dummy mander. A dummy mander is when you cut it 436 00:24:46,924 --> 00:24:50,484 Speaker 2: too close and you wind up actually costing yourselves seats. 437 00:24:50,684 --> 00:24:54,724 Speaker 2: Right over the course of ten years, there are five 438 00:24:55,164 --> 00:25:00,764 Speaker 2: congressional elections after each census, right by six eight, ten 439 00:25:00,844 --> 00:25:02,964 Speaker 2: years out, things can change a lot. In the state 440 00:25:03,124 --> 00:25:05,724 Speaker 2: like Texas, there's a lot of migration shifts of voting patterns. 441 00:25:05,924 --> 00:25:07,524 Speaker 2: So then you can get some dummy manders, right, that 442 00:25:07,604 --> 00:25:10,204 Speaker 2: kind of restrain the risk. Wow. The president of the 443 00:25:10,244 --> 00:25:12,364 Speaker 2: norm is that you can redistrict whenever you want, right, 444 00:25:12,404 --> 00:25:15,324 Speaker 2: and so therefore you can be more aggressive because if 445 00:25:15,364 --> 00:25:16,764 Speaker 2: you fucked up then. And by the way, you can 446 00:25:16,764 --> 00:25:22,924 Speaker 2: also also gerrymander very importantly state boundary lines that you 447 00:25:23,004 --> 00:25:25,284 Speaker 2: are more likely to retain control of the state legislature. 448 00:25:25,324 --> 00:25:30,524 Speaker 2: Wisconsin had a cycle for many years where the representative 449 00:25:30,724 --> 00:25:33,764 Speaker 2: or the legislator was vastly misrepresentative of a very divided 450 00:25:34,084 --> 00:25:37,044 Speaker 2: purple state. Right, and it's self perpetuating until Democrats finally 451 00:25:37,084 --> 00:25:41,684 Speaker 2: won control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court and force the 452 00:25:41,724 --> 00:25:46,044 Speaker 2: drawing of new maps. Right. The one thing that GOP 453 00:25:46,204 --> 00:25:50,004 Speaker 2: ought to be careful about is that, like it used 454 00:25:50,044 --> 00:25:52,684 Speaker 2: to be, Democrats had benefit from higher turnout. They would 455 00:25:52,684 --> 00:25:56,284 Speaker 2: do comparatively better in presidential years and then lose ground 456 00:25:56,364 --> 00:26:00,324 Speaker 2: in midterm election years, lose ground in special elections. And 457 00:26:00,404 --> 00:26:03,084 Speaker 2: now that's reversed. Right now, Democrats are the college ucated 458 00:26:03,524 --> 00:26:06,844 Speaker 2: people who have in this house, we believe signs they're 459 00:26:06,924 --> 00:26:10,564 Speaker 2: voting for a municipal dog catcher, their voting in every election. Right. 460 00:26:11,764 --> 00:26:15,724 Speaker 2: And since half the elections our congression or are non 461 00:26:15,724 --> 00:26:18,644 Speaker 2: presidential elections, actually more than half you account special elections, right, 462 00:26:20,084 --> 00:26:22,484 Speaker 2: you could have a thing where now Democrats actually gain 463 00:26:22,684 --> 00:26:26,364 Speaker 2: ground at the mid terms in congressional years and use 464 00:26:26,404 --> 00:26:29,364 Speaker 2: that to kind of hold the Fort down in presidential 465 00:26:29,484 --> 00:26:32,524 Speaker 2: years by gerry mattering aggressively. Right, So I'm not actually 466 00:26:32,644 --> 00:26:36,204 Speaker 2: sure that if you get to the equilibrium where every 467 00:26:36,244 --> 00:26:39,204 Speaker 2: party when they have every ability to and then some 468 00:26:39,244 --> 00:26:43,004 Speaker 2: states requires regular majorities, some states supermajorities based in the 469 00:26:43,004 --> 00:26:46,564 Speaker 2: state rules and constitutions. Some states do have requirements that 470 00:26:46,604 --> 00:26:49,204 Speaker 2: are stricter than the US Constitution. Right, in the very 471 00:26:49,244 --> 00:26:51,604 Speaker 2: long run, everybody's actually aggressive. I'm not sure this actually 472 00:26:51,604 --> 00:26:56,044 Speaker 2: helps Republicans at all. Right, there are other debates about well, 473 00:26:56,044 --> 00:26:58,644 Speaker 2: Democrats are concentrated in cities, and therefore if you go 474 00:26:58,724 --> 00:27:01,244 Speaker 2: for things that are compact, nice listing districts, maybe that 475 00:27:01,324 --> 00:27:05,004 Speaker 2: helps Republicans because Democrats are sinc of votes. I'm not 476 00:27:05,004 --> 00:27:07,324 Speaker 2: sure that's just true either. For one reason, you have 477 00:27:07,404 --> 00:27:12,724 Speaker 2: seen cities actually become comparatively less blue, very blue. New 478 00:27:12,764 --> 00:27:15,644 Speaker 2: York is very very blue, but less blue Salzoran in 479 00:27:15,644 --> 00:27:17,884 Speaker 2: the primary, right, but less blue than it was in 480 00:27:17,924 --> 00:27:21,604 Speaker 2: presidential voting than it was ten or twenty years ago. Right. 481 00:27:21,724 --> 00:27:25,084 Speaker 2: And meanwhile, the rural areas are very very very trumpy, right, 482 00:27:25,084 --> 00:27:27,364 Speaker 2: I mean, you always you always got the little, you 483 00:27:27,484 --> 00:27:29,964 Speaker 2: always got the Ashville, North Carolina's where we are right, 484 00:27:30,004 --> 00:27:33,524 Speaker 2: you got the little colleges, you got the gays or 485 00:27:33,564 --> 00:27:36,764 Speaker 2: gays everywhere. Right, there are minority groups everywhere, right, they 486 00:27:36,764 --> 00:27:40,924 Speaker 2: are always smatterings of Democratic voters, but like less and less, 487 00:27:41,004 --> 00:27:44,804 Speaker 2: especially just like rural Hispanic voters, rural black voters, right, 488 00:27:45,204 --> 00:27:49,924 Speaker 2: you know, have become more and more Republican. Then you 489 00:27:50,004 --> 00:27:51,604 Speaker 2: have very very red areas. And so I don't know 490 00:27:51,644 --> 00:27:54,484 Speaker 2: there's any intrinsic disadvantage Democrats in the long run. By 491 00:27:54,484 --> 00:27:57,044 Speaker 2: the way, the current maps as of twenty twenty four, 492 00:27:57,564 --> 00:28:01,564 Speaker 2: if anything, had a very slight half a point democratic bias, right, 493 00:28:01,644 --> 00:28:04,204 Speaker 2: because Democrats kind of had a good year in twenty eighteen, 494 00:28:04,364 --> 00:28:09,764 Speaker 2: and you know, California, even though it could Jerrymander even more, 495 00:28:10,844 --> 00:28:13,004 Speaker 2: you know, it's a pretty aggressive map and so forth. 496 00:28:13,044 --> 00:28:16,724 Speaker 2: And so it's not so much that this, I know, 497 00:28:16,924 --> 00:28:19,924 Speaker 2: the equilibrium is one where in theory you'd say, well, 498 00:28:19,924 --> 00:28:23,404 Speaker 2: if either party really benefits in the long term, then 499 00:28:23,884 --> 00:28:30,124 Speaker 2: why not avoid this mutually assured destruction and you know, 500 00:28:30,484 --> 00:28:34,164 Speaker 2: and have a gentleman's gentle woman's agreement to avoid we 501 00:28:34,244 --> 00:28:37,044 Speaker 2: us too aggressively. I mean that we know from game 502 00:28:37,084 --> 00:28:41,244 Speaker 2: theory for the prisoner's element, et cetera, especially when the 503 00:28:41,284 --> 00:28:44,444 Speaker 2: parties increasingly see politics as a zero sum game. It's 504 00:28:44,564 --> 00:28:47,644 Speaker 2: very hard for that agreement to hold. And by the way, yeah, 505 00:28:47,644 --> 00:28:48,404 Speaker 2: they're selfish too. 506 00:28:48,524 --> 00:28:48,644 Speaker 1: Right. 507 00:28:49,284 --> 00:28:52,644 Speaker 2: In districting, what happens is that you are usually protecting 508 00:28:53,404 --> 00:28:58,124 Speaker 2: incumbents by having fewer competitive seats, right, And obviously some 509 00:28:58,164 --> 00:29:01,284 Speaker 2: incumbents become lose a game of lucky chairs, a bit 510 00:29:01,324 --> 00:29:03,164 Speaker 2: like a poker tournament. They're kind of eliminated one at 511 00:29:03,204 --> 00:29:05,924 Speaker 2: a time, right to protect the other incumbents, But like 512 00:29:06,244 --> 00:29:10,684 Speaker 2: for the most part, selfishly. You know, if anything, it 513 00:29:10,764 --> 00:29:13,524 Speaker 2: might lead to equilibrium where they're not as aggressive as 514 00:29:13,524 --> 00:29:17,124 Speaker 2: they might be because they want the ninety nine percent 515 00:29:17,204 --> 00:29:20,244 Speaker 2: chance of not ninety five percent. Right, So they're knits, Maria, 516 00:29:20,284 --> 00:29:23,004 Speaker 2: They're nits. Their nits. They're terrified of taking any risk. 517 00:29:23,044 --> 00:29:25,164 Speaker 2: They're selfish. I don't know why. I know. I've become 518 00:29:25,204 --> 00:29:28,204 Speaker 2: a member of Congress, I you know, I know that. 519 00:29:28,244 --> 00:29:32,564 Speaker 2: Does that mean you gotta be weird? I mean maybe 520 00:29:32,564 --> 00:29:35,124 Speaker 2: the house? The House seems fun. Fucking governor. I want 521 00:29:35,124 --> 00:29:36,924 Speaker 2: to hang out with the governor and have a beer 522 00:29:36,964 --> 00:29:39,604 Speaker 2: with a governor. Right, Fucking Senators are like wax figures. 523 00:29:39,604 --> 00:29:42,204 Speaker 2: They're weird as fuck. It's one of the most objectively 524 00:29:42,204 --> 00:29:44,764 Speaker 2: weird things to be as a United States senator. Why 525 00:29:44,764 --> 00:29:45,564 Speaker 2: would you want to do that? 526 00:29:46,844 --> 00:29:48,684 Speaker 1: I have no idea. I don't know why anyone would 527 00:29:48,724 --> 00:29:51,764 Speaker 1: want to be a politician. But one of the things 528 00:29:52,164 --> 00:29:56,244 Speaker 1: that apart from the weirdness of us senator is one 529 00:29:56,244 --> 00:29:59,924 Speaker 1: of the points that you've made in not so many words, 530 00:30:00,084 --> 00:30:03,124 Speaker 1: is that one of the things to remember about redistricting 531 00:30:03,164 --> 00:30:06,804 Speaker 1: in general is it takes time, and it's a thing 532 00:30:06,804 --> 00:30:08,924 Speaker 1: that you're doing for the future, and the future is 533 00:30:08,964 --> 00:30:13,044 Speaker 1: inherently uncertain, right and we're we're not quite sure how 534 00:30:13,204 --> 00:30:15,444 Speaker 1: trends are going to play out, how different things are 535 00:30:15,444 --> 00:30:18,004 Speaker 1: going to play out, how populations are going to move, 536 00:30:18,044 --> 00:30:20,524 Speaker 1: and there are certain things that you can't predict, right 537 00:30:20,564 --> 00:30:23,044 Speaker 1: Like no one predicted Sure, people said pandemic coming at 538 00:30:23,044 --> 00:30:25,084 Speaker 1: some point, no one could predict you know, what happened 539 00:30:25,164 --> 00:30:28,404 Speaker 1: during COVID and where kind of people started moving, what 540 00:30:28,444 --> 00:30:30,644 Speaker 1: that would do to maps, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 541 00:30:30,684 --> 00:30:35,244 Speaker 1: Those events will happen. We're talking about a long timeline, 542 00:30:35,364 --> 00:30:38,404 Speaker 1: you know, five years, ten years, all of these things, 543 00:30:38,724 --> 00:30:41,604 Speaker 1: and then once you actually do the redistricting, it could 544 00:30:41,684 --> 00:30:44,364 Speaker 1: be you know, challenged in court that could take a while. 545 00:30:44,524 --> 00:30:48,924 Speaker 1: So all of these things, like this is massive time horizons. 546 00:30:49,284 --> 00:30:52,124 Speaker 1: And so when you say, like you're not sure how 547 00:30:52,164 --> 00:30:55,484 Speaker 1: much it hurts you know, Democrats, that's you know, it 548 00:30:55,564 --> 00:30:59,964 Speaker 1: is other than like everyone loses mutually assured destruction. That's 549 00:31:00,084 --> 00:31:03,004 Speaker 1: very true because like we we don't know. And when 550 00:31:03,004 --> 00:31:06,524 Speaker 1: you're drawing these lines, you're drawing them with the present 551 00:31:06,604 --> 00:31:09,364 Speaker 1: in mind, not with a future mind. Even if you 552 00:31:09,604 --> 00:31:12,844 Speaker 1: think you're taking the future into account, right, you might 553 00:31:12,884 --> 00:31:16,084 Speaker 1: be making gross mistakes because you have kind of this 554 00:31:16,164 --> 00:31:20,164 Speaker 1: present bias. And I don't know how many experts you're consulting, 555 00:31:20,164 --> 00:31:23,204 Speaker 1: and what kinds of experts you're consulting, Who the experts 556 00:31:23,204 --> 00:31:26,164 Speaker 1: would be that you would consult even to say, okay, 557 00:31:26,164 --> 00:31:29,124 Speaker 1: well in five years or in this crucial election, we 558 00:31:29,244 --> 00:31:32,884 Speaker 1: predict X and y. This is it's a really really 559 00:31:32,884 --> 00:31:37,444 Speaker 1: difficult science, right, It's a complicated process, and just humans, 560 00:31:37,524 --> 00:31:40,044 Speaker 1: humans are bad at that kind of uncertainty. And this 561 00:31:40,164 --> 00:31:43,084 Speaker 1: is just something that people aren't really talking about. They're like, oh, well, 562 00:31:43,164 --> 00:31:45,164 Speaker 1: let's you know, let's see what we can do with 563 00:31:45,204 --> 00:31:47,964 Speaker 1: the districts now to try to kind of capitalize on 564 00:31:48,004 --> 00:31:50,724 Speaker 1: our votes and those ninety five percent, ninety nine percent, 565 00:31:50,724 --> 00:31:53,644 Speaker 1: all of those things that's going to matter, that might change. 566 00:31:54,244 --> 00:31:57,004 Speaker 1: A few percentage points might shift here and there. And 567 00:31:57,044 --> 00:31:59,284 Speaker 1: as we talk about over and over and Nate, as 568 00:31:59,324 --> 00:32:02,724 Speaker 1: poker players, we know a few percentage point shifts actually 569 00:32:02,764 --> 00:32:06,324 Speaker 1: make big differences and can make have big waves overall. 570 00:32:06,684 --> 00:32:10,244 Speaker 2: There's one other important aspect here, which is like it 571 00:32:10,324 --> 00:32:14,324 Speaker 2: mattered most at the margin when you have close control overall. 572 00:32:14,364 --> 00:32:18,204 Speaker 2: For the US Congress. Right now, let's say that the 573 00:32:18,204 --> 00:32:21,324 Speaker 2: economy goes into a big recession before next year. Let's 574 00:32:21,364 --> 00:32:23,084 Speaker 2: say the terrorists really hurt and let's say it might 575 00:32:23,084 --> 00:32:25,964 Speaker 2: be next week's episode. I don't know. Right, Let's say 576 00:32:25,964 --> 00:32:30,044 Speaker 2: there's an AI driven recession, that this is kind of 577 00:32:30,044 --> 00:32:32,964 Speaker 2: happening in markets, right, that people feel as though GPT 578 00:32:33,124 --> 00:32:36,764 Speaker 2: five and related things have hit a plateau. Half the 579 00:32:36,844 --> 00:32:43,364 Speaker 2: capital still massive put in these AI companies disappears. Meanwhile, 580 00:32:43,404 --> 00:32:46,084 Speaker 2: it removes some mundane jobs. Right. Let's say we're in 581 00:32:46,164 --> 00:32:49,204 Speaker 2: a pretty bad recession next year. I mean, Democrats might 582 00:32:49,244 --> 00:32:52,124 Speaker 2: have a really good year, right, And in that case, 583 00:32:52,924 --> 00:32:56,004 Speaker 2: maybe the Texas market's a pretty clever plan. Maybe then 584 00:32:56,844 --> 00:32:59,364 Speaker 2: some districts that ELI and I didn't even look at 585 00:32:59,564 --> 00:33:02,764 Speaker 2: come into play and it winds up netting Republican zero 586 00:33:02,764 --> 00:33:06,004 Speaker 2: seats or negative one seat or something. In that case, 587 00:33:06,124 --> 00:33:08,204 Speaker 2: it kind of doesn't really matter because you only let 588 00:33:08,204 --> 00:33:10,204 Speaker 2: people to Congress or two years at a time anyway 589 00:33:10,244 --> 00:33:12,124 Speaker 2: to the House, right, and in that case there are 590 00:33:12,164 --> 00:33:15,884 Speaker 2: kinds of a huge majority anyway, right, So what matters 591 00:33:15,964 --> 00:33:19,044 Speaker 2: is how robust is the map in a relatively neutral 592 00:33:19,124 --> 00:33:22,724 Speaker 2: national environment where you were swing districts in your state 593 00:33:23,044 --> 00:33:26,684 Speaker 2: who determine overall control of Congress. But I think you know, 594 00:33:26,724 --> 00:33:29,044 Speaker 2: members of Congress are selfish, I guess rationally so, right, 595 00:33:29,084 --> 00:33:31,124 Speaker 2: and so they are sometimes I'm going to pushtingus as 596 00:33:31,164 --> 00:33:32,604 Speaker 2: far as they might if you were, if I were 597 00:33:32,604 --> 00:33:37,044 Speaker 2: playing fantasy politics and trying to maximize seats for my party. Right. 598 00:33:38,324 --> 00:33:44,044 Speaker 1: But but yeah, yeah, all true, all true. And by 599 00:33:44,084 --> 00:33:46,524 Speaker 1: the way, I do want to point out, since we 600 00:33:47,164 --> 00:33:50,164 Speaker 1: kind of were talking about the weakening of the Voting 601 00:33:50,204 --> 00:33:55,084 Speaker 1: Rights Act, et cetera, that these were distinctoring, these redistricting maps, 602 00:33:55,124 --> 00:33:57,564 Speaker 1: and these voting maps are for all sorts of elections, 603 00:33:57,564 --> 00:33:59,844 Speaker 1: because you said, you know, you were you were talking 604 00:33:59,884 --> 00:34:02,484 Speaker 1: about the fact that you know, presidential election is just 605 00:34:02,564 --> 00:34:06,604 Speaker 1: one and one of many, many, but because this week 606 00:34:06,644 --> 00:34:10,444 Speaker 1: there actually was an important federal decision in Mississippi where 607 00:34:10,484 --> 00:34:14,924 Speaker 1: Mississippi was ordered to redraw Supreme Court electoral map because 608 00:34:14,964 --> 00:34:18,124 Speaker 1: it was found to violate the Voting Rights Act by 609 00:34:18,164 --> 00:34:20,604 Speaker 1: diluting the power of black voters. So this is a 610 00:34:20,604 --> 00:34:23,164 Speaker 1: decision that just happened this week, the week that we're taping, 611 00:34:23,564 --> 00:34:26,604 Speaker 1: and it's been litigated by the way it's the lawsuit 612 00:34:26,684 --> 00:34:29,404 Speaker 1: was first filed in April twenty twenty two, so that's 613 00:34:29,444 --> 00:34:32,684 Speaker 1: how long it took for this decision to be made. 614 00:34:32,724 --> 00:34:35,004 Speaker 1: So this just highlights several of the points that we've 615 00:34:35,044 --> 00:34:37,524 Speaker 1: been talking about. It is something that's kind of also 616 00:34:37,604 --> 00:34:40,404 Speaker 1: in the news that didn't make as many headlines because 617 00:34:40,764 --> 00:34:46,964 Speaker 1: it's not as big a story on some level as Texas, California, 618 00:34:47,004 --> 00:34:49,804 Speaker 1: all of that, But it does illustrate a lot of 619 00:34:49,844 --> 00:34:54,284 Speaker 1: these points that we've been talking about, including the fact 620 00:34:54,404 --> 00:34:57,764 Speaker 1: that the Voting Rights Act is actually still being used. 621 00:34:57,804 --> 00:35:00,084 Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. Right this is a federal court, 622 00:35:00,124 --> 00:35:03,484 Speaker 1: but you can see this being appealed even further. 623 00:35:06,604 --> 00:35:22,084 Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. What do 624 00:35:22,124 --> 00:35:25,484 Speaker 2: you do if you're a citizen, a voter, you know 625 00:35:25,604 --> 00:35:30,324 Speaker 2: you might want some type of bipartisan grassroots effort. Right. 626 00:35:30,404 --> 00:35:33,484 Speaker 2: I mean we've seen like democratic groups that formulated, or 627 00:35:33,484 --> 00:35:39,284 Speaker 2: progressive groups or just anti anti gerrymandering groups have conceded 628 00:35:39,564 --> 00:35:42,044 Speaker 2: they've understood the prisoner's aleever, right, they're like, it is 629 00:35:42,044 --> 00:35:45,404 Speaker 2: fucking terrible if the other side does this and we don't, 630 00:35:45,484 --> 00:35:48,484 Speaker 2: and so like, you know, maybe you need a bipartisan 631 00:35:49,324 --> 00:35:52,764 Speaker 2: grassroots movement, and you know, we have ignored like there 632 00:35:52,844 --> 00:35:57,524 Speaker 2: might be some benefit to this kind of half stance 633 00:35:57,604 --> 00:35:59,924 Speaker 2: Democrats are taking where they're like this is bab or 634 00:35:59,964 --> 00:36:03,284 Speaker 2: gonna do it anyway, right, I mean a principle, if 635 00:36:03,564 --> 00:36:06,244 Speaker 2: you shift the overall electric because you persuade people that 636 00:36:06,324 --> 00:36:10,164 Speaker 2: Republicans are trying to steal elections or steal majorities in Congress, right, 637 00:36:10,524 --> 00:36:12,084 Speaker 2: that could have a backlash. I mean, I think it 638 00:36:12,084 --> 00:36:14,604 Speaker 2: doesn't help Democrats that they have no always made aggressive 639 00:36:14,644 --> 00:36:21,044 Speaker 2: districting their priority. Necessarily no constitutional or congressional led actions 640 00:36:21,084 --> 00:36:23,524 Speaker 2: to prevent this, and so like I know right now, 641 00:36:23,564 --> 00:36:25,324 Speaker 2: I wouldn't worry about that messae fiwre it. I'd be like, 642 00:36:25,364 --> 00:36:27,804 Speaker 2: we know where the puck is going, right, we know 643 00:36:27,844 --> 00:36:31,284 Speaker 2: where the puck is going, and maybe voters will see 644 00:36:31,284 --> 00:36:34,964 Speaker 2: the implications of this where they have some fucking whacko 645 00:36:35,004 --> 00:36:37,884 Speaker 2: representing them in Congress. Their vote doesn't matter. Right, They're 646 00:36:37,924 --> 00:36:39,564 Speaker 2: already a state where the vote probably doesn't matter. They 647 00:36:39,644 --> 00:36:41,444 Speaker 2: used to be a liv bit for Congress where it did, right, 648 00:36:41,524 --> 00:36:45,084 Speaker 2: And people get fed up and there's some push against 649 00:36:45,084 --> 00:36:47,284 Speaker 2: this now where if you're a state legislature and you 650 00:36:47,444 --> 00:36:49,804 Speaker 2: draw a mid district in mid decade map or really 651 00:36:49,804 --> 00:36:52,484 Speaker 2: aggressive map or we can the VRA or whatever else, 652 00:36:52,804 --> 00:36:56,204 Speaker 2: people know your name and they vote you out of office. 653 00:36:56,244 --> 00:36:59,084 Speaker 2: One come in general that political types have is to 654 00:36:59,124 --> 00:37:02,164 Speaker 2: focus too much on federal elections and not enough on 655 00:37:02,204 --> 00:37:06,684 Speaker 2: state and local elections. Right, so you know, making this 656 00:37:06,724 --> 00:37:09,884 Speaker 2: an issue where Okay, this guy is a ring leader 657 00:37:10,604 --> 00:37:11,884 Speaker 2: and we want to go him out of office, you 658 00:37:11,924 --> 00:37:13,644 Speaker 2: know what I mean. You can even pick a Republican 659 00:37:13,884 --> 00:37:16,244 Speaker 2: who is just as conservative on an abortion or whatnot, right, 660 00:37:16,244 --> 00:37:19,284 Speaker 2: but like but not trying to you know, steal quote 661 00:37:19,324 --> 00:37:22,404 Speaker 2: unquote democratic rhetoric. And we haven't really seen that much 662 00:37:22,524 --> 00:37:24,964 Speaker 2: focus there. I mean, you don't have focus. Then what 663 00:37:25,004 --> 00:37:27,844 Speaker 2: happens is the default equilibrium. That's what prevails. And the 664 00:37:27,844 --> 00:37:31,004 Speaker 2: equilibrium here is that you're gonna have it's unlimited by courts, 665 00:37:31,044 --> 00:37:33,804 Speaker 2: it's unlimited by political incentives. It's unlimited certainly by any 666 00:37:33,804 --> 00:37:35,604 Speaker 2: trust the parties have in one another. And I'm not 667 00:37:35,684 --> 00:37:39,044 Speaker 2: being totally both sides think the GOP kind of mostly 668 00:37:39,084 --> 00:37:42,764 Speaker 2: started it right, but Democrats have responded in kind. I mean, 669 00:37:42,764 --> 00:37:45,244 Speaker 2: there are lots of various of jerrymanders. Illinois, for example, 670 00:37:45,324 --> 00:37:48,644 Speaker 2: is one state that, like you know, not that blue 671 00:37:48,724 --> 00:37:51,484 Speaker 2: down in south southern Illinois, but like you these crazy 672 00:37:51,484 --> 00:37:53,444 Speaker 2: looking districts, right, and so we know where the puck 673 00:37:53,564 --> 00:37:56,004 Speaker 2: is going. And Democrats are fooling themselves if they think 674 00:37:56,004 --> 00:37:57,004 Speaker 2: they don't have to play the game. And if they 675 00:37:57,044 --> 00:37:59,004 Speaker 2: do play the game, they might not lose the game, right, 676 00:37:59,364 --> 00:38:01,644 Speaker 2: they will have plenty of control of their own and 677 00:38:01,684 --> 00:38:03,964 Speaker 2: blue states. There are plenty of people and seats in 678 00:38:04,004 --> 00:38:06,724 Speaker 2: blue states, and so and so I don't know betto 679 00:38:06,804 --> 00:38:07,364 Speaker 2: had it right. 680 00:38:07,484 --> 00:38:09,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, So let's see how it Let's see how it 681 00:38:09,124 --> 00:38:11,484 Speaker 1: plays out in California, and maybe we'll see a roadmap 682 00:38:11,524 --> 00:38:15,124 Speaker 1: for getting this to play out on a broader scale. 683 00:38:15,884 --> 00:38:19,364 Speaker 1: In any case, a really really interesting, I think topic 684 00:38:19,484 --> 00:38:21,684 Speaker 1: with lots of different things to consider and lots of 685 00:38:21,684 --> 00:38:25,004 Speaker 1: applications for how we think about US politics and what 686 00:38:25,084 --> 00:38:27,764 Speaker 1: the future of politics is going to look like. I 687 00:38:27,804 --> 00:38:30,084 Speaker 1: don't have a prediction. I don't want to be optimistic 688 00:38:30,204 --> 00:38:35,004 Speaker 1: or pessimistic. Let's just wait and see. You know how, 689 00:38:35,004 --> 00:38:36,884 Speaker 1: when how this plays up? 690 00:38:36,924 --> 00:38:40,084 Speaker 2: When in Nvidia and open Ai and Tesla, you know, 691 00:38:40,164 --> 00:38:43,124 Speaker 2: they control the majority of seats in Congress anyway in 692 00:38:43,164 --> 00:38:46,564 Speaker 2: twenty fifty, I think, and like the four remaining people's 693 00:38:46,564 --> 00:38:49,964 Speaker 2: seats from New York, who really cares, right, they can't 694 00:38:50,004 --> 00:38:51,684 Speaker 2: really do very much. That's probably where we're atting. 695 00:38:51,724 --> 00:38:55,044 Speaker 1: I think we're Yeah, that does that does seem likely 696 00:38:55,164 --> 00:38:59,284 Speaker 1: night And on that very promising note, you and I 697 00:38:59,364 --> 00:39:07,084 Speaker 1: can both resume our non US adventures and let's see 698 00:39:07,084 --> 00:39:09,164 Speaker 1: what's happening in the news and in the breaking news 699 00:39:09,164 --> 00:39:17,524 Speaker 1: side next time we talk. Let us know what you 700 00:39:17,564 --> 00:39:19,964 Speaker 1: think of the show. Reach out to us at Risky 701 00:39:20,004 --> 00:39:23,804 Speaker 1: Business at Pushkin dot fm. And by the way, if 702 00:39:23,844 --> 00:39:26,364 Speaker 1: you're a Pushtin Plus subscriber, we have some bonus content 703 00:39:26,444 --> 00:39:28,924 Speaker 1: for you that's coming up right after the credits. 704 00:39:29,044 --> 00:39:32,284 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 705 00:39:32,484 --> 00:39:34,644 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price 706 00:39:35,004 --> 00:39:37,684 Speaker 2: you get access to all that premium content and ad 707 00:39:37,804 --> 00:39:40,444 Speaker 2: for listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows. 708 00:39:40,604 --> 00:39:43,644 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova. 709 00:39:43,324 --> 00:39:45,684 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 710 00:39:45,764 --> 00:39:49,884 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 711 00:39:49,924 --> 00:39:53,684 Speaker 2: by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya Gerwit. Sally 712 00:39:53,724 --> 00:39:56,764 Speaker 2: Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 713 00:39:57,244 --> 00:39:58,444 Speaker 2: Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 714 00:39:58,844 --> 00:40:00,044 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for tuning in.