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Speaker 1: On this episode of newts World. My guest today is

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Speaker 1: a political scientist and consultant who has advised two presidents,

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Speaker 1: a vice president, two cabinet members, five senators, and three

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Speaker 1: big city mayors on their races during the past several years.

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Speaker 1: He's worked in six countries and has won more than

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Speaker 1: fifteen competitive election campaigns. He's joining me today to discuss

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Speaker 1: his new book Beat the Incumbent, Proven Strategies and Tactics

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Speaker 1: to Win Elections, where he offers message strategies that have

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Speaker 1: won elections that were thought to be unwinnable and change

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Speaker 1: the course of history. I'm really pleased to welcome my guest,

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Speaker 1: doctor Lewis Perone. He earned a PhD in political science

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Speaker 1: from the University of Zurich and Switzerland. In addition to

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Speaker 1: his global political consulting work, he also currently teaches a

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Speaker 1: course in political marketing at the Institute for Political Science

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Speaker 1: at the University of Zurich. LL was welcome and thank

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Speaker 1: you for joining me on the News World.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, miss speaker. I'm honored to be here.

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Speaker 1: Talk a little bit about how you first got interested

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Speaker 1: in elections.

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Speaker 2: Well, ever since I was a teenager, I felt very

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Speaker 2: strong and passionate about elections, and I actually always thought

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Speaker 2: that I would want to run myself. The only problem

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Speaker 2: was that Switzerland is just so boring. I mean, Swiss

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Speaker 2: politics is really boring, which probably serves the country really well.

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Speaker 2: But when I was young, I wanted to travel and

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Speaker 2: live an international life. So I got a master degree

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Speaker 2: in Washington, DC at g w and that's actually where

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Speaker 2: I found out that the role behind the scenes is

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Speaker 2: just as fascinating but allows me to try internationally. So

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Speaker 2: I came back from DC to Switzerland with the idea of, hey,

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Speaker 2: I want to be a political consultant.

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Speaker 1: You have a political science degree in Geneva. Then you

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Speaker 1: have a graduate school of political management at George Washing University,

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Speaker 1: and then you had a PhD and political science at

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Speaker 1: the University of Resurich. So you've really had a sort

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Speaker 1: of broad international background. And for your PhD, you compare

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Speaker 1: election campaigns in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and the Philippines.

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Speaker 1: First of all, why did you pick those four countries.

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Speaker 2: Well, the honest answer is because for the PhD, I

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Speaker 2: had to do field work, I had to interview people,

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Speaker 2: and I wanted to travel, so I wanted to go

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Speaker 2: to Brazil at the Philippines and Thanks good. I had

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Speaker 2: a PhD father who was very open, and I convinced

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Speaker 2: him that instead of comparing France, Germany, and Italy, which

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Speaker 2: at the time was the normal thing to do in Europe,

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Speaker 2: I said, hey, let's choose cases that are as different

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Speaker 2: as they can possibly be and look for similarities. And

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Speaker 2: in many ways, actually the model I describe in the

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Speaker 2: book is based on my PhD research and I found

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Speaker 2: at the time, and it's still true that actually challengers

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Speaker 2: who win do share important similarities with challenges who lose,

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Speaker 2: regardless of the political system they're working in.

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Speaker 1: I would think of the Philippines, for example, as being

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Speaker 1: remarkably different from say Germany. Did you find underlying patterns

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Speaker 1: that were the same.

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Speaker 2: It's very different, the history, the culture, the political system,

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Speaker 2: the institutions, party systems, So yes, they're very different. But

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Speaker 2: one thing I found is you can learn something about

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Speaker 2: elections everywhere. In fact, there's a whole universe to be

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Speaker 2: discovered about election campaigns. And yes, I think successful challengers

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Speaker 2: usually start early because they have disadvantage and they need

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Speaker 2: time to overcome those disadvantage. Successful challengers are willing and

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Speaker 2: able to show contrast and put the incumbent on the defense.

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Speaker 2: So yes, there are similarities. And surprisingly, even among the

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Speaker 2: losers there are similarities. They're hesitant to go on the

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Speaker 2: offense or unable or unwilling, they start late, they don't

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Speaker 2: own the dominating issue. So yes, there are obvious similarities.

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Speaker 2: I described them in.

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Speaker 1: The Book's part of what makes you so interesting? You

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Speaker 1: went beyond just being an academic and you went to

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Speaker 1: work with Mark Melman, who's one of the great consultants

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Speaker 1: in the US, at the Melmon Group, and you actually

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Speaker 1: learned how to apply what you've been learning to campaigns.

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Speaker 1: So you now have a firm Parent Campaigns, which is

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Speaker 1: a political consulting firm. That's quite a transition, I mean,

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Speaker 1: was that something you always wanted to do well.

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Speaker 2: I was always really passionate about elections, and when I

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Speaker 2: studied political science, I was actually a bit disappointed. I

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Speaker 2: felt that many political science students are actually unpolitical. Somehow

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Speaker 2: I didn't feel the passion I would have expected. So

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Speaker 2: when I came to DC, I felt like paradise. Like

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Speaker 2: to me, DC was like a city where everybody was

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Speaker 2: like me. You're in everybody's like me, like feeling really

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Speaker 2: strong about all those things other people don't care. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I interned with Mark Melman and after a while in

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Speaker 2: the US, decided, Okay, now I want to do it

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Speaker 2: on my own, and that's when I went back to Switzerland.

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Speaker 1: You really are at sort of the center of political

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Speaker 1: groupies when you're in Washington, DC. I mean, virtually everybody

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Speaker 1: is interested in one way or another in government and

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Speaker 1: politics and lobbying, you name it. But now when you

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Speaker 1: went back home to switch one and you create your firm,

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Speaker 1: you're actually in a number of different countries, aren't you

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Speaker 1: as a consultant.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it just so happened that I do a lot

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Speaker 2: of work in several Asian countries, sort of a spin

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Speaker 2: off actually from the PhD, because I went to Asia

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Speaker 2: for the PhD and then did a lot of work there.

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Speaker 2: And I mean, as I said, there's a universe to

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Speaker 2: be discovered. I remember when I was first time in

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Speaker 2: the search engine, I entered in Brazil and election campaigns

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Speaker 2: and I was just really flowbergasted to see it. There

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Speaker 2: were like so many articles popping up. I'm like, Wow,

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Speaker 2: there's a whole universe to be discovered. So in the book,

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Speaker 2: I write about Zelenski. I write about France, Macron, Germany,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's the benefit of reading the book.

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Speaker 1: Have you looked much at the sort of collapse of

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Speaker 1: the British Conservative Party, which has been a real surprise.

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Speaker 1: I look at the current Conservative Party, I don't recognize

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Speaker 1: any of it.

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Speaker 2: Well, wouldn't that be though? The same with the Republicans

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Speaker 2: in the US that they're quite different from how they

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Speaker 2: were twenty years ago.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I think that's a good parallel. We've certainly evolved

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Speaker 1: in response to changing times, but changement that the Tories

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Speaker 1: have been evolving in ways which are not electorally going

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Speaker 1: to be very effective.

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Speaker 2: I was a little bit shocked how willing they were

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Speaker 2: to throw out Boris Johnson because actually he want them

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Speaker 2: a really big victory. I think goes to show how

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Speaker 2: fast even your party mates forget things and write about

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Speaker 2: Johnson actually also in the book he was like failing

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Speaker 2: to reinvent himself. Now he want this big victory. He

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Speaker 2: ran to get Brexit done, and part of his problem

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Speaker 2: was that he got Brexit done and then sort of

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Speaker 2: running out of ideas, didn't adapt to the new political demand.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, now soon as a person actually I think

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Speaker 2: he's a likable guy. I think he could be sold

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Speaker 2: to the people. I don't think he's to be disliked,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean, after more than a decade in power,

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Speaker 2: I think the sheer duration of incumbency becomes an argument

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Speaker 2: for change. So he's in a tough spot, another vulnerable

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Speaker 2: incumbent trying to survive. You have that in the US

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: So when you look at what's going on in the US,

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Speaker 1: what do you pick out as the most important things

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Speaker 1: people are to sort of look at and queue off of.

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Speaker 2: Well, if it will be Trump versus Bid, then this

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Speaker 2: is sort of uncharted territory in the sense that it's

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Speaker 2: almost an incumbent versus an incumbent race. And I think

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Speaker 2: that would make it very easy for Democrats to make

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Speaker 2: this a binary choice, because we always say that race

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Speaker 2: with an incumbent is a referenda on the incumbent. And

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Speaker 2: I think if you're a vulnerable incumbent, you want to

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Speaker 2: make it a binary choice. And given that Trump was

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Speaker 2: the incumbent, and maybe also given his personality there's always

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Speaker 2: everything about him, I think that would be the challenge

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Speaker 2: for Republicans to really keep this a referenda on the incumbent.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that Biden as the incumbent will have

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Speaker 1: another advantage over Trump as the almost incumbent.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think Biden obviously is very vulnerable, and vulnerable

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Speaker 2: incumbents they always think if only they could explain better

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Speaker 2: what they've been doing, they would win. Their variations to it,

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Speaker 2: I think incumbents from the left usually blame the voters,

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Speaker 2: think the voters are just don't understand them, don't get it.

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Speaker 2: And combents from the right usually tend to blame the media.

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Speaker 2: They think if only journalists would be fair and not

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Speaker 2: all liberals, they would win. Both approaches I think are

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Speaker 2: wrong because you're giving away the keys to change things,

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Speaker 2: and I think the way to change it if you're

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Speaker 2: a vulnerable incumbent is the ruthless counter offense. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's how Obama and Bush one reelection, as different as

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Speaker 2: they are politically.

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Speaker 1: So you would think that Biden has to be aggressively

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Speaker 1: attacking Trump.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and I find it very noteworthy that he explicitly

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Speaker 2: runs against Trump, and ever since from declaring actually it

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Speaker 2: was running against Trump. Now it's like whether it's Trump

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Speaker 2: or somebody else, they're all the same, the same kind

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Speaker 2: of Trump. So I think that's his only way to

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Speaker 2: win reelection unless there's economic miracle. I mean, we don't

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Speaker 2: know how the economy will be in November. Right, that

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Speaker 2: might change, but if not, then I think the ruthless

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Speaker 2: counter offense is the only way for vulnerable incumbents to win.

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Speaker 2: My last chapter, actually in the.

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Speaker 1: Book, were you surprised by the size of Trump's victory

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Speaker 1: in the Iowa Caucus?

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Speaker 2: Well, I always said that everybody might just be wrong

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Speaker 2: about Trump in DC. I find it interesting how the

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Speaker 2: media always underestimated him four years ago and eight years ago,

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Speaker 2: and now all think that he's unstoppable. I mean I

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Speaker 2: always said, let's wait and see the vote. Now, I

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Speaker 2: think every time you win fifty percent in a multi

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Speaker 2: candidate field, of course it's a very good result. Now

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Speaker 2: you could also look at the glass have empty and say, well,

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Speaker 2: despite being this an environment that is very friendly to him,

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Speaker 2: right a caucus, forty nine percent did not vote for him.

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Speaker 2: So that shows the limits. And I think in many ways, actually,

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Speaker 2: Nikki Haley would probably be better suited to run the

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Speaker 2: kind of challenge a campaign I write about in the book.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't that require her to sort of take Trump head on.

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Speaker 1: I mean, nobody seems willing to really go aggressively after

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Speaker 1: President Trump on the Republican so it obviously Biden does,

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Speaker 1: but on the Republican side people are sort of tamid.

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Speaker 2: Well, there was Chris Christie who tried, and clearly he

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Speaker 2: ran out of time. I think he didn't have enough time.

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Speaker 2: The party obviously was not willing for that big of

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Speaker 2: a change. Maybe NICKI Haley I think try somewhat in between,

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Speaker 2: like distancing, like claiming to be a new generation, but

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Speaker 2: not confront Trump directly. In that sense, she would be

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Speaker 2: very well positioned for a general election campaign to unify

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Speaker 2: the party. I think she could really build a coalition

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Speaker 2: from Trump supporters to Republicans who just want to get

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Speaker 2: rid of Biden. And I think it's an important point

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Speaker 2: actually that challenges have to do the first thing after winning.

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Speaker 2: They have to reach out and unify their own parties,

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Speaker 2: because I think divided parties rarely win big general election victories.

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Speaker 1: And the most recent Globe Soffolk University poal in New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: which was taken right after the Iowa Caucus, Trump leads

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Speaker 1: Haley by sixteen points. Trump's at fifty Haley is at

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Speaker 1: thirty four and the Santus is at five. She only

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Speaker 1: has a few days left. Doesn't you have to do

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Speaker 1: something to try to break past Trump?

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Speaker 2: Yes? Absolutely, I mean I think this is a must

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Speaker 2: win almost for her, or at least she has to

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Speaker 2: come very close. I think if Trump wins this, he

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Speaker 2: would probably be close to be unstoppable. If she wins,

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Speaker 2: that blows the case wide open. Then we have a

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Speaker 2: real campaign starting. If she doesn't win, I concede that

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Speaker 2: Trump probably is unstoppable.

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Speaker 1: You've seen the rise of a very conservative populist party

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Speaker 1: in Germany, which I think is now the largest opposition party,

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Speaker 1: and you've seen greater strength with Lapan in France, and

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Speaker 1: you've now seen a conservative woman elected as the first

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Speaker 1: female prime minister in Italy. Do you see a pattern

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Speaker 1: of sort of rebellion against the establishment at least around

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Speaker 1: Europe and America?

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Speaker 2: Yes, there certainly is a pattern among those countries in Europe,

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Speaker 2: and it brings me to the secret weapon of the right,

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Speaker 2: which is immigration. I mean, people I think really are

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Speaker 2: fed up with how things are going, and I think

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Speaker 2: it's just an issue that is so difficult for the left.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they can't even acknowledge the problem. And I

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Speaker 2: think in Europe it's really what we're seeing. I think

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Speaker 2: it's really the immigration issue that drives a lot of

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Speaker 2: people to those right parties that you mentioned. And it

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Speaker 2: would be very interesting because it always used to be

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Speaker 2: consensus in Europe that the biggest party has the chancellorship.

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Speaker 2: Right so in some states in like Lender, in Germany

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Speaker 2: and even in Austria. Nationwide, the right wing party is

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Speaker 2: now the biggest, so would mean that they would lead

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Speaker 2: the government. So there are interesting times coming up in Europe.

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Speaker 1: It seems to me that the same things happen here

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Speaker 1: in the US, and that all of a sudden he's

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Speaker 1: begun to gel that immigration is an unavoidable topic, and

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Speaker 1: the left, I guess, for ideological reasons, they seem almost

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Speaker 1: incapable of dealing with it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. I think, if I may play Devil's advocate,

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Speaker 2: it's the opposite of what the climate change is on

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Speaker 2: the right. I think those are two issues where just

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Speaker 2: mainstream people, they get it, they want something to be done,

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Speaker 2: and it's really ideology holding politicians back. I mean, maybe

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Speaker 2: we have to switch roles and I start to interview

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Speaker 2: you because I'm really curious. Why isn't Biden giving Republicans

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Speaker 2: what they want on the border?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think because his left will go crazy his

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Speaker 1: left wants open borders.

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Speaker 2: Is that even better he can blame left?

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Speaker 1: Well, he co have been Bill Clinton what have But

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Speaker 1: I think Biden is much closer to the left than

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Speaker 1: Bill Clinton was. But I'm curious just from a how

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Speaker 1: does Switzerland deal with immigration?

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Speaker 2: Well, a little bit better than Germany, I think because

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Speaker 2: we have direct democracy, right, we vote on issues all

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Speaker 2: the time. So I think in Switzerland the gap between

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Speaker 2: the elite and let's say normal people is certainly smaller

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Speaker 2: than in other countries. And actually we like flat erroques.

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Speaker 2: Our cabinet members take the train, for example, and Swiss

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Speaker 2: people are so proud of that they take a train

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Speaker 2: they even have to pay for it. The good thing

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Speaker 2: about it is that the gap is smaller. So yes,

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Speaker 2: I think. And we have a different history than Germany. Also,

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Speaker 2: I mean a lot of the let's say wrong direction

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Speaker 2: Germany took with respect to immigration has a lot to

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Speaker 2: do with their historic inheritance. But the situation is less

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Speaker 2: dramatic in Switzerland. But also we have a right wing

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Speaker 2: party that's actually the biggest party as well, and has

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Speaker 2: been for decades.

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Speaker 1: Actually, what are the ground rules for immigration and short on,

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Speaker 1: I mean, do you accept refugees? Do you accept the

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Speaker 1: legal immigrants?

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Speaker 2: Well, yes, there is a right for asylum. I think

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Speaker 2: Switzerland has just really tried to be less attractive for refugees.

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Speaker 2: So one thing that Switzerland did, and was actually a

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Speaker 2: federal counselor from the left who did it, but that's

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Speaker 2: a good thing she did, is to make the whole

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Speaker 2: process much faster, so you cannot just come and sort

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Speaker 2: of create facts and stay there forever. Like the process

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Speaker 2: in Switzerland is rather fast, and that makes it less

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Speaker 2: attractive for people to come. Now, of course, Switzerland is

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Speaker 2: a rich country, makes everything a bit easier as well, right, Also,

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Speaker 2: the whole integration makes it easier. Switzerland has its own challenges,

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Speaker 2: but compared to Germany, who really had a disastrous policy

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Speaker 2: under Angela Merkel, a little bit better.

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Speaker 1: We've had several efforts now to knock President Trump off

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Speaker 1: the ballot. The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that he is

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Speaker 1: disqualified from holding the office of president. The Sectary of

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Speaker 1: State in Maine removed him from the primary ballot, citing

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Speaker 1: the fourteenth Amendment, which was adopted right after the Civil War.

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Speaker 1: Are you surprised that there's this effort to literally eliminate

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Speaker 1: him as a competitor by just not letting him on

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Speaker 1: the ballot.

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Speaker 2: I'm not surprised because Europe and European media is very

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Speaker 2: anti Trump. But it's wrong. I think this should not

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Speaker 2: be decided by the courts. It should be decided by

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Speaker 2: the voters, right, That's why there is a vote. But

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Speaker 2: I just explained this actually to a journalist in Switzerland.

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Speaker 2: The other side, no, which is I mean Trump. People

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Speaker 2: here also make it sort of easy with Trump. They're like,

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Speaker 2: don't want to see that, Yeah, I mean Trump. Yes,

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Speaker 2: often is polarizing. Often, he exaggerates. Often, he takes things

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Speaker 2: out of context. Often he says it in a rude way.

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Speaker 2: But on many issues he has a point. No, and

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Speaker 2: Europeans they don't want to see that. No, they just

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Speaker 2: want to see the polarizing, outrageous part about it, and

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Speaker 2: they get outraged about it. They totally missed on many

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Speaker 2: issues he has a point.

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Speaker 1: No, do you know of any other country other than

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Speaker 1: say Russia or Novotney. Putin's primary opponent is locked up

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Speaker 1: for nineteen years. I don't know if any country in

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Speaker 1: Western Europe which has actually kicked people off the ballot. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Germany cut under the Nazi provision.

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Speaker 2: Now they're actually talks about like legal issues and hurdles

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Speaker 2: for the IFD. But no, I think this is something

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Speaker 2: that should be decided by the voters and can be decided.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's not that Trump is unstoppable. I think

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Speaker 2: if it's Trump versus by then it's a fight.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, while they're trying to knock

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Speaker 1: him off the ballot. Five point thirty eight, which is

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Speaker 1: an Americana polling, Sesson has Trump among Republicans at sixty

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Speaker 1: three percent, with Hallo at about twelve and the Santas

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Speaker 1: at about twelve. You'd think the guy who get sixty

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Speaker 1: three percent probably should be allowed on the ballot.

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Speaker 2: He should. He should unless there is a real case. No,

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Speaker 2: But let the voters decide the same way that I

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Speaker 2: didn't like how all the pondit said that he has

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Speaker 2: already won the nomination. Let's wait for the votes. There's

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Speaker 2: going to be a vote. Let's let people vote. I

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Speaker 2: think they's thrilled to vote. There is a debate. They're

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Speaker 2: running ads. They're raising money, so let the people express

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Speaker 2: and have a vote.

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Speaker 1: Now, your book, which is entitled beat the Incumbent, Proven

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Speaker 1: Strategies and Tactics to an elections. How vulnerable are incumbents?

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Speaker 2: Well, increasingly vulnerable. I think in the old days, by

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Speaker 2: the advantage they had with fundraising and with awareness. I

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Speaker 2: think if an incumbent did his job well with respect

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Speaker 2: to policy and politics, I think they should have sailed

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Speaker 2: to an easy reelection. Now I think public opinion is

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Speaker 2: becoming more volatile. People are more cynical, they're more willing

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Speaker 2: to take a risk. So I think incumbents increasingly vulnerable.

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Speaker 2: Now they're still incumbents who win big victories, but sort

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Speaker 2: of this time where people are happy and feeling really

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Speaker 2: positive about how things are going. I mean, which country

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Speaker 2: now do you see these dynamics? So I think that

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Speaker 2: makes incumbents more vulnerable. I mean, look at Argentina right,

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Speaker 2: people are willing to take a risk. The same happened

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Speaker 2: in Brazil before. I mean Zelenski he was a comedian

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Speaker 2: and actually when he ran, that was his first campaign,

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Speaker 2: was running for president of Ukraine, and he really ran

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Speaker 2: as an outsider. When he debated Poroshenko, at the time

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Speaker 2: he said to Poroshenko, I'm not your opponent, I'm your verdict.

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Speaker 2: And we always say that elections with incumbent or a

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Speaker 2: referenda on the incumbent, and this line by Zelenski just

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Speaker 2: expresses this, so well, no, I'm not your opponent, I'm

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Speaker 2: your verdict. And he won with what seventy something percent.

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Speaker 1: We had a similar experience in nineteen eighty when Reagan

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Speaker 1: beat the incumbent president, Jimmy Carter by the largest electoral

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Speaker 1: vote margin in history for defeating an incumbent president. You know,

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Speaker 1: he said that the voters are you better off than

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Speaker 1: you were four years ago? And after they thought about it,

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Speaker 1: they said, now it's sort of a classic case of

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Speaker 1: your point that you can't beat the incumbent.

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Speaker 2: Yes, however, to beat the incumbent you have to really

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Speaker 2: lock him in and make the case why it's because

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Speaker 2: of his decisions that things are not going well. There

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Speaker 2: is this example in the book about Fonso Oland, the

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Speaker 2: former president of France, and when he ran to unseat

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Speaker 2: the incumbent Psachosi. At the time, that was just after

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Speaker 2: the financial crisis, so we've been very easy for Pacosi

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Speaker 2: to blame things on the financial crisis, right, and so

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Speaker 2: what Olands did in every speech, in every interview, he

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Speaker 2: always explicitly made the case that things are bad because

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Speaker 2: of decisions by Zachosi before the financial crisis. He always

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Speaker 2: tried to make this link. Really prosecutes the incumbent and

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Speaker 2: lock him in, don't let him get away with it.

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Speaker 2: Like for example, like how Obama did right in twenty

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Speaker 2: twelve when he ran for reelection, he blamed things quite

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Speaker 2: skillfully on George Bush, even though he was already in

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Speaker 2: power for four years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought it was amazing looking back to Obama

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Speaker 1: won the argument that the bad economy was Busher's fault.

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Speaker 1: So every time the Republican nominee Mitt Romney talked about

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Speaker 1: the economy, he was actually weakening himself because people said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right, as bad as George Bushersfauldt, not as Barack

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Speaker 1: Obama's fault. But I noticed you describe Obama's two thousand

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Speaker 1: and eight campaign as the greatest challenger campaign ever. What

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Speaker 1: do you mean by that?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I think it was one of the most perfect

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Speaker 2: classic challenging campaigns. I mean he's a great candidate. His

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Speaker 2: candidates kills both retail but also like public speaking. But

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Speaker 2: that said, another point I write about in the book

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Speaker 2: in this respect is that he was really or his

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Speaker 2: team was very good in defending change and owning change

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Speaker 2: and defending it against at the time McCain, a candidate

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Speaker 2: that was actually a very good general election candidate, and

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Speaker 2: given the Republican field, would actually have been very well

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Speaker 2: positioned to run sort of a change campaign or at

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Speaker 2: least something independent from incumbent Bush. And I think the

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Speaker 2: way they tried to tie McCain to Bush and eight years,

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Speaker 2: which was really not given his profile and background, I

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Speaker 2: think they did a very good job.

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Speaker 1: You wrote a real clear politics article that the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four presidential election will be decided by double haters.

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Speaker 1: Describe what you mean by double haters.

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Speaker 2: The double haters I didn't invent it. I mean that's

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Speaker 2: the idea that there are obviously people who disagree or

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Speaker 2: have an unfavorable opinion about both Trump and Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: While we talk a lot about polarization, and that is

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Speaker 2: a fact, I think there still are people in the middle.

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Speaker 2: There are still people who are independents, and while there

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Speaker 2: are less of them, often they are the ones who

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Speaker 2: decide elections. And I think in this case, probably it's

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Speaker 2: a safe hypothesis to assume that they have a negative

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Speaker 2: opinion about both of them. So what I would do

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Speaker 2: is a lot of listening to those people. In my work,

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Speaker 2: I work a lot with focus groups. I think it's

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Speaker 2: a very powerful tool to understand voters. Research has a

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Speaker 2: lot to do with numbers and algorithms and data. I

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Speaker 2: think it has a lot to do with listening to voters.

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Speaker 2: So I would spend a lot of time listening to

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Speaker 2: the double haters and try to find ways how to

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Speaker 2: reach out to them, something that's become sort of unfashionable

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Speaker 2: to do right now. Reaching out is not something that

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Speaker 2: is so cool anymore in politics, and the examples I

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00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 2: use in my book are really old. Sometimes that's why

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00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 2: we desperately need them.

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Speaker 1: So do you think Republicans can win in twenty twenty four?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Yes, sure they can win. But I think they

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00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: have to reach out to the topple haters. They have

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00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: to reach out to swing voters. If it's like my

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00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 2: way or the Highway, I think the base is too small. No,

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00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: unless the economy really tanks or there's a health issue.

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Speaker 2: I mean, who knows what will happen but under normal circumstances,

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Speaker 2: I think they should reach out. I mean, if you

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Speaker 2: look back at Trump last time, you could say that

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00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 2: there was a little bit of outreach with black men

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00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 2: and it worked actually quite well. Other than that, there

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00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: was really not much reaching out to actually the majority

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Speaker 2: of people who did not vote for him. I think

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Speaker 2: if he would have done more of it, he may

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Speaker 2: as well have one reelection. And the same actually with

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Speaker 2: Bosonaro and Brazil, I also write I think both of them,

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Speaker 2: they've done a little bit more outreach, they could have

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Speaker 2: won reelection.

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Speaker 1: That's great, listen, I want to thank you for joining me.

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Speaker 1: Your new book, Beat the Incumbent, Proven Strategies and Tactics

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00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 1: to in Elections is very very timely. I want to

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00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 1: encourage our listeners who may be in politics now or

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00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: who are working on a campaign in twenty twenty four

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00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: to get a copy. It is available on Amazon. Our

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00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 1: listeners can find out more about the campaign work you

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00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: do at lewisparone dot com. That's been great having you,

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00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: and I really appreciate you taking the time to educate us.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest doctor Lewis Peron. You can

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00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 1: get a link to buy his new book Beat the Incumbent,

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00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: Proven Strategies and Tactics to in Elections on our show

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00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced by Gingrish

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00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsey Sloan.

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00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show

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00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks the team at Gingrish.

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Speaker 1: If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcast and both rate us with five stars and

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Speaker 1: give us a review so others can learn what it's

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Speaker 1: all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworld consign up for

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Speaker 1: my three freeweekly columns at gingrichthree sixty dot com slash newsletter.

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00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: I'm newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld.