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Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. His Bloomberg day Break

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Speaker 1: for Monday, June twenty sixth.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, Vladimir Putin faces the biggest challenge to

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Speaker 2: his leadership in Russia in nearly a quarter century.

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Speaker 1: The world watches for what's next after Putin's apparent deal

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Speaker 1: with the Wagner Group. Global Team coverage just ahead.

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Speaker 2: One of the biggest bears on Wall Street sees more

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Speaker 2: pain ahead.

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Speaker 1: I mean speak with Elon Musk about his new plans

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Speaker 1: for SpaceX.

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Speaker 3: Some very important rulings are expected this week from the

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Speaker 3: US Supreme Court. Plus, New York City puts on its

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Speaker 3: annual Pride parade. I'm Michael barr more ahead.

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Speaker 4: Of John stanshowon towards the Yankees rally to beat Texas,

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Speaker 4: the Mets blow a lately lost in Philadelphia.

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Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business

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Speaker 5: news you need to start your day in just one

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Speaker 5: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: Business Appen everywhere you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 1: And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 2: Karen We'll get back to the markets in a minute,

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Speaker 2: but we begin with the latest from Russia and the

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Speaker 2: biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin's grip on power in nearly

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Speaker 2: a quarter century. Moscow has lifted anti terror measures that

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Speaker 2: went in place over the weekend after the head of

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Speaker 2: the Wagner Group, you have, Geny Progosian, halted his advance

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Speaker 2: on the Russian capital. The Kremlin says it made a

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Speaker 2: deal to end Progosian's mutiny broker by the President of Belarus,

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Speaker 2: but former UK Defense Secretary Philip Hammon says this might

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Speaker 2: not be the end of the rebellion.

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Speaker 6: Mister Progoshin has been vocal in his calls for changes

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Speaker 6: at the top of the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian military.

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Speaker 6: We will only find out over time whether any changes

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Speaker 6: are going to be made. We don't know what the

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Speaker 6: deal is that's been done.

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Speaker 2: Former British Defense Secretary Philip Hammond tells Bloomberg it is

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Speaker 2: difficult to imagine Putin coming out stronger from this weekend's events.

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Speaker 1: Well, Nathan, there's not much public reaction out of the

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Speaker 1: Kremlin since the deal was broken. Bloomberg's Greg Sullivan begins

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Speaker 1: our global team coverage from Budapest.

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Speaker 7: After the deal was announced and confirmed by the Crimeline,

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Speaker 7: we have seen a mostly siren crimline since then. We

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Speaker 7: have not seen President of Vladimir Putin publicly since he

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Speaker 7: gave his Saturday TV address in which he called the

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Speaker 7: Wagner Group's actions treasonous, even Pregoton himself. You're getting Prevot

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Speaker 7: in the head of the mercenary of the Wagner Group.

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Speaker 7: He's often voicisterous in public, and he has been largely

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Speaker 7: out of public view since then as well, leaving a

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Speaker 7: call that leaves a certain nervousness, unsettlementness from the events

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Speaker 7: of the weekend and room for focusing on the questions

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Speaker 7: of what does it mean? What are the implications of

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Speaker 7: what transpired over the weekend, and that seems to be

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Speaker 7: where the focus is now.

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Speaker 1: And Bloomberg's Reg Sullivan reports one Kremlin figure has made

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Speaker 1: an appearance since the weekend mutiny. Russian Defense Minister Sergei

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Speaker 1: Shoigu has seen inspecting groups in Ukraine today. Shoiku has

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Speaker 1: been the focus of Eugeni Progorihin's harshest criticism.

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Speaker 2: And Karen, we have been hearing reaction from the White

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Speaker 2: House over this weekend's events. Amy Morris continues our team

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Speaker 2: coverage from the Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington.

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Speaker 8: Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln told ABC's This Week the

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Speaker 8: rebellion showed cracks in Putin's authority.

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Speaker 9: A direct challenge surfacing very publicly. The notion that this war,

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Speaker 9: the suggression by Russia, was being pursued under false pretenses.

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Speaker 9: The notion that Ukraine or NATO somehow presented a threat

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Speaker 9: to Russia that it had to deal with militarily. That's

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Speaker 9: now much more out in the open than it's been.

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Speaker 8: Secretary of State b Lincoln says the uprising is a

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Speaker 8: distraction that can help Ukraine. Meanwhile, he says the US

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Speaker 8: is in contact with Russian officials about the safety of

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Speaker 8: US personnel and citizens in the region in Washington. I'm

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Speaker 8: Amy Morris, Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 1: All right, Amy, thank you about the ruble hit its

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Speaker 1: weakest level and fifteen months following the events, But overall

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Speaker 1: market reaction has been pretty muted. Bloomberg's Valery tied Till

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Speaker 1: continues our team coverage from London.

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Speaker 10: You'd expect if there was a real threat of some

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Speaker 10: instability in Russia, a civil war in Russia that would

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Speaker 10: really impact the Euro, and not just the Euro but

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Speaker 10: other surrounding countries to Russia. So I'm thinking Poland, check Hungary.

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Speaker 10: But all of those currencies are still holding up pretty

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Speaker 10: well today. And even in the commodity space, you know,

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Speaker 10: there's not a huge risk off bid. When it comes

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Speaker 10: to gold, it's up slightly, but not enough really to

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Speaker 10: call it a risk off move. And then oil, if

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Speaker 10: we did have an unrests on our hands, you'd expect

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Speaker 10: oil to shoot way higher.

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Speaker 1: In Bloomberg's Valery title reporting, we're checking oil right now

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Speaker 1: and I'm eke screw to oil a little change at

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Speaker 1: sixty nine dollars twelve cents a barrel. Brent also a

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Speaker 1: little change, it's seventy three dollars eighty nine cents.

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Speaker 2: As for US futures, Karen, they're a bit lower this morning,

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Speaker 2: following the S and P five hundreds, worst weeks since March,

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Speaker 2: and one of the biggest bears on Wall Street says

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Speaker 2: there could be more pain ahead. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson

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Speaker 2: expects the benchmark index to end this year at thirty

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Speaker 2: nine one hundred, that's about ten percent below Friday's closed

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Speaker 2: before rising to forty two hundred in the second quarter

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Speaker 2: of next year. Wilson says, quote the headwinds significantly outweigh

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Speaker 2: the tailwinds, and we believe risks for a major correction

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Speaker 2: have rarely been higher.

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Speaker 1: And Nathan shares of Tesla are down more than two percent.

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Speaker 1: In early trading, the automaker was downgraded to neutral from

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Speaker 1: buy at Goldman Sachs. Analysts at the firm sited the

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Speaker 1: recent run up in the stock, as well as a

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Speaker 1: difficult pricing environment for new vehicles well.

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Speaker 2: In a wide ranging interview with Bloomberg, Tesla CEO Elon

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Speaker 2: Musk says SpaceX has made lots of changes to Starship

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Speaker 2: following the vehicle's first test launch in April, which failed

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Speaker 2: to rejob at. Musk spoke with Bloomberg senior reporter Ashley

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Speaker 2: Vance in a Twitter spaces interview.

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Speaker 11: There are really a commend stummer. Changes between the last

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Speaker 11: social play to end this one are in well over

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Speaker 11: one thousand, so I think the probability of this next

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Speaker 11: flight working is getting to allbit is much higher than

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Speaker 11: the last one.

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Speaker 2: Elon muskrates at a sixty percent chance SpaceX reaches orbit.

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Speaker 1: Well, Nathan, after three pandemic summers, A record number of

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Speaker 1: Americans will hit the highway this July fourth weekend. Triple

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Speaker 1: A predicts more than forty three million motorists will drive

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Speaker 1: fifty miles or more from their homes this Independence Day weekend.

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Speaker 1: That's four percent more than in twenty nineteen and when

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Speaker 1: mark a new record. Triple A says throw and travel

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Speaker 1: by planes, buses, cruise, ships and trains, and holiday travel

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Speaker 1: will hit an all time high of fifty point seven

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Speaker 1: million Americans during that weekend.

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Speaker 2: Now it's time to take a look at some of

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Speaker 2: the other stories making news in New York and around

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Speaker 2: the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Good.

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Speaker 3: Morning, Nathan. The Supreme Court is preparing to unveil its

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Speaker 3: decisions and some big cases. The High Court has just

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Speaker 3: ten opinions left to release over the next week before

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Speaker 3: the justices begin their summer break. Some of the most

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Speaker 3: contentious issues the Court has wrestled with this term include

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Speaker 3: affirmative action, student loans, and gay right. More severe weather

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Speaker 3: is moving east today after yet another deadly tornado outbreak.

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Speaker 3: At least one death was reported in Martin County, Indiana.

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Speaker 3: Another twister left behind a path of destruction yesterday in Bargersville, Indiana.

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Speaker 3: Fire Chief Eric Funkhauser.

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Speaker 11: We're probably looking at right now at least seventy five

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Speaker 11: homes with moderate to severe damage from the tornado being

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Speaker 11: on the ground.

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Speaker 3: Chief Funkhauser says the twister got a three mile path

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Speaker 3: through Johnson County. The Coast Guard has now officially convened

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Speaker 3: a Marine Board of Investigation, or MBI, into the loss

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Speaker 3: of the Titan submersible. The accident killed all five people

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Speaker 3: aboard on their way to the wreckage of the Titant.

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Speaker 3: Captain Jason Nubauer is the Coastguard Chief Investigator.

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Speaker 12: The NBI is also responsible for accountability aspects of the incident,

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Speaker 12: and it can make recommendations to the proper authorities to

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Speaker 12: pursue civil or criminal sanctions.

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Speaker 3: Captain Neubauer says for now, the priority of the investigation

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Speaker 3: is to recover items from the ocean floor. Pride parades

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Speaker 3: took place across the country Sunday, including the nation's largest

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Speaker 3: in New York City. Among the celebrities present for the

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Speaker 3: fifty third Pride Parade. A New York comedian and activist

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Speaker 3: Lea Delaria. The sixty five year oldpamutitor affiliation with the

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Speaker 3: organization God's Love We Deliver It began thirty eight years

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Speaker 3: ago during the AIDS epidemic, delivering meals to those sick

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Speaker 3: and dying of age. Today, Delarius says they'll help anyone

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Speaker 3: who is in need.

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Speaker 13: Started in nineteen eighty five, it was mostly for the

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Speaker 13: age community, but now it's just anybody who needs food,

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Speaker 13: can't doesn't have access to food, doesn't have access to

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Speaker 13: the money to have food, and they serve thirteen thousand

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Speaker 13: meals a day.

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Speaker 3: The two mile parade around along Fifth Avenue featured about

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Speaker 3: one hundred thousand parade participants and an estimated one million spectators.

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Speaker 3: Global News tenty four hours a day, powered by more

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Speaker 3: than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in over one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty countries. I'm Michael Lebarr, and this is

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Nather.

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Speaker 5: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 2: Time for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stenshawer all right.

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Speaker 4: Nathan Key, eighth innings for the Yankees and Mets good

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Speaker 4: one for the Yanks at the Stadium. They had trail

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Speaker 4: Texas three nothing.

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Speaker 3: It was three to two.

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Speaker 4: Yanks had two on swung on and line the love

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Speaker 4: center field head's a base hit over the head of

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Speaker 4: Duran going to the wall.

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Speaker 2: Both Bay scores.

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Speaker 3: Carbrero scores it is a.

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Speaker 14: Two run double off the bat of Harrison Vader and

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Speaker 14: the Yankees take off four to three leads on the wfan.

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Speaker 4: They went five to three and Aday were their ace.

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Speaker 4: Garrett Cole did not have his best stuff failed to

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Speaker 4: finish the fifth inning, though bullpen again solid with four

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Speaker 4: and to a third scoreless innings. Yanks off tonight, start

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Speaker 4: a road trip tomorrow at lowly Oakland. The A's are

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Speaker 4: twenty and sixty. They are flirting with the record similar

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Speaker 4: to what the Mets had in nineteen sixty two. These

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Speaker 4: Mets looked like the nineteen sixty two team bottom the

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Speaker 4: eighteen in Philadelphia. The phil scored four times. They had

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Speaker 4: one hit, but the Mets issued three walks, had an air,

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Speaker 4: and the tyney and go ahead runs both came in

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Speaker 4: on consecutive hit batsman. Phillies won seven to six. The

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Speaker 4: Mets have lost fifteen of their last twenty. They host

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Speaker 4: Milwaukee tonight. Also tonight, they'll decide the College World Series

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Speaker 4: in Omaha, LSU against Florida, who stayed alive by winning

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Speaker 4: twenty four to four. Gators at twenty three hits, hid

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Speaker 4: six home runs. They scored four more runs in four

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Speaker 4: different innings. Wimbledon starts tomorrow. Carlos Alcarez has won the

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Speaker 4: Tune up in England. He's now won tournaments this year

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Speaker 4: on three surfaces. This was his first ever on grass.

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Speaker 4: The twenty year old Alcarez the youngest top seed at

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Speaker 4: Wimbledon since Boris Becker in the nineteen eighties. Travelers Golf

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Speaker 4: near Hartford won by Keegan Bradley finished twenty three under

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Speaker 4: part one by three. The women's PJ had Baltus Rawl

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Speaker 4: in New Jersey won by Ruining Yin, a twenty year

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Speaker 4: old in China, John Stashellen.

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Speaker 2: Blooberg sport.

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Speaker 14: Coast to coast from New York to San Francisco, Boston

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Speaker 14: to Washington, DC nationwide on Sirias Exam, the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 14: and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning,

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Speaker 14: I'm Nathan Hager. The world is watching to see what

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Speaker 14: comes next. Following the biggest challenge to Russian President Vladimir

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Speaker 14: Putin's leadership in nearly a quarter century. The Mercenary Wagner

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Speaker 14: Group's weekend march to Moscow has ended nearly as soon

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Speaker 14: as it began after a deal was reached between the

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Speaker 14: Kremlin and Vagner leader Yevgeny Progosion, an agreement broker by

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Speaker 14: the President of Belarus. For the latest rejoined live Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 2: Executive editor for International Government Rosalind Matheson, It's good to

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Speaker 2: speak with you this morning. Following so much heated rhetoric

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Speaker 2: between Progosion and Putin over the weekend and those images

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Speaker 2: of the convoys headed to Moscow. Now we enter what

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Speaker 2: seems to be a period of uncertainty here.

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Speaker 11: Well, that's right.

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Speaker 15: Even though the Wagner Mercenary chief, Progosion, turned his troops around,

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Speaker 15: seemingly diffusing this moment, there's a lot we still don't know.

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Speaker 15: We don't even know where Progosion is right now. Is

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Speaker 15: he on his way to Bielarus? Is he going to

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Speaker 15: take the bulk of his forces with him? What would

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Speaker 15: he do if and when he got there? And also

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Speaker 15: Vladimir Putin, we've not heard from him since Saturday when

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Speaker 15: he came out to denounce this mutiny.

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Speaker 10: He's not been seen of either.

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Speaker 15: What we have seen is footage of the Russian Defense Minister,

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Speaker 15: who's been the focal point of a lot of this,

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Speaker 15: footage of him showing up inside Ukraine meeting Russian troops today.

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Speaker 15: We don't know exactly when that happened, but the footage

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Speaker 15: is airing on Russian state media this morning. And of

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Speaker 15: course he's been the one that the Wagner group has

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Speaker 15: criticized the most and demanded his removal for sort of

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Speaker 15: failures by the Russian troops on the ground inside Ukraine.

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Speaker 15: But the two main protagonists, we still don't know anything

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Speaker 15: much since yesterday. We don't know where Putin is commented publicly,

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Speaker 15: and neither has Pregos.

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Speaker 2: It is interesting to see that the first image of

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Speaker 2: a Russian figure to come out of Russian state media

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Speaker 2: is the Defence minister and that footage of him inspecting

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Speaker 2: the troops in Ukraine. What kind of message does that

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Speaker 2: signal that the Kremlin is trying to send out here.

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Speaker 8: Well, very much.

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Speaker 15: What they seem to be doing is trying to send

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Speaker 15: the message that everything's back to normal and that you know,

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Speaker 15: Russia's very focused on its war inside Ukraine. The ministers,

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Speaker 15: they're seeing the troops and rallying them on. They're pushing

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Speaker 15: back against the Ukrainian counter offensive, and full intents and purposes,

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Speaker 15: this is over. So you see sort of the streets

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Speaker 15: of Moscow back to normal, quite quiet. All the roadblocks

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Speaker 15: have been removed. They're saying markets are open and trading

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Speaker 15: and so on, and so really the sort of the

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Speaker 15: sense that they're pushing through state media is that there's

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Speaker 15: nothing to see here. This moment happened, it's finished, and

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Speaker 15: let's move on. The reality of that, of course, is

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Speaker 15: far less clear. There's got to be further ramifications from

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Speaker 15: this moment. I mean, this was the most overt public

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Speaker 15: challenge that we've seen so far to the authority of

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Speaker 15: the Russian president in decades inside Russia, and so surely

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Speaker 15: there's got to be further fallout from that.

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Speaker 2: What's the sense at this point that we have about

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Speaker 2: Russian people's support either for President Putin at this point

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Speaker 2: or for Yevgeny Progosian.

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Speaker 15: Well, we do know that Progosian does have a body

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Speaker 15: of support, and certainly his men seem to be very

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Speaker 15: loyal to him and quite highly organized. But also Vladimir

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Speaker 15: Putin has worked very hard to denude the political opposition

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Speaker 15: in Russia in the years leading up to this invasion,

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Speaker 15: and certainly keeping quite a close control over the Russian

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Speaker 15: media and so sort of managing that message. There's no

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Speaker 15: sense of sort of great unrest coming from this moment

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Speaker 15: immediately or people coming out onto the streets. And we

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Speaker 15: do know that within Russia there is at least some

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Speaker 15: measure of support for the war in Ukraine or at

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Speaker 15: least resignation about it amongst all gary Russian people. The

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Speaker 15: question really is, as Vladimir Putin heads towards an election

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Speaker 15: next year, for example, do the elites start to discuss

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Speaker 15: amongst themselves, you know, potential to sort of have a

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Speaker 15: contender against him, or the possibility of sort of life

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Speaker 15: without Putin in charge. And that's really where the debate

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Speaker 15: is probably going to start, not at the ordinary sort

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Speaker 15: of street level, but amongst the elites.

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Speaker 2: And of course this is coming as Ukraine is mounting

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Speaker 2: this counter offensive in the springtime against Russia. This has

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Speaker 2: to be something that Ukrainians feel like they can take

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Speaker 2: advantage of this period of uncertainty and potential turmoil in Russia.

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Speaker 15: Well, certainly that could be the case, and they're obviously

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Speaker 15: pushing their counteroffensive hard at the moment. I mean, what

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Speaker 15: we can see is that there are still Wagner troops

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Speaker 15: inside Ukraine. The question is are they going to keep

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Speaker 15: fighting for Russia. Are they going to transfer over and

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Speaker 15: just operate under the umbrella of the Russian military? Are

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Speaker 15: they going to leave entirely because they've been really carrying

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Speaker 15: the can on a lot of the fighting in the

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Speaker 15: key areas, because they're more organized and well structured frankly

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Speaker 15: than the Russian military. So if they go, how does

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Speaker 15: that affect the conflict on the ground. Does that give

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Speaker 15: the advantage to the Ukrainians in this moment? Certainly they

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Speaker 15: would be hoping that that's the case, but it's still

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Speaker 15: too early to say.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Rosslyn Mathieson, Thanks for being with us this morning,

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Speaker 2: our executive editor for International Government. As we continue to

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Speaker 2: follow developments following the weekend mutiny in Russia, we want

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Speaker 2: to turn our attention now to the markets as we

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Speaker 2: get ready for the final trading week of the first half.

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Speaker 2: We're joined live by Laurie Calvacina, head of US Equity

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Speaker 2: strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Obviously geopolitics is now in focus, Lorie,

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Speaker 2: how much of a focus should it be for investors

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Speaker 2: at this point?

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Speaker 16: Well, thanks for having me, Nathan, And look, I think

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Speaker 16: that what's interesting about the timing of this episode is

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Speaker 16: that it comes when it really seemed like the stock

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Speaker 16: market was searching for new narratives. I think, post the

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Speaker 16: debt ceiling, the set is really short. They're regetting the

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Speaker 16: focus with a lot of equity investors, and so now

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Speaker 16: geopolitics has really taken center stage. I think that, you know,

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Speaker 16: one of the things my colleague and commodity strategy Holing

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Speaker 16: Macroft has pointed out is that there is just so

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Speaker 16: much we don't know right now. And you alluded to

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Speaker 16: the uncertainty earlier. We're not seeing a big reaction in

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Speaker 16: market so far, whether we're looking at futures or commodities.

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Speaker 16: I think that makes sense. I think the market knows

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Speaker 16: what it doesn't know and we have to let this

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Speaker 16: situation unfold.

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Speaker 2: Is this a kind of a situation that the market

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Speaker 2: can look past. I mean, we've had a lot of

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Speaker 2: uncertainty around monetary policy and so much else for this

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Speaker 2: market this year.

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Speaker 16: So what's also interesting about the time end of this

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Speaker 16: episode is that sentiment gauges, whether you're looking at the

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Speaker 16: CFTC data on asset manager position in S and P

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Speaker 16: five hundred futures or if you're looking at the AAII

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Speaker 16: survey on net bullishness, those indicators are not technically stretched

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Speaker 16: yet at a point that would cause us to be

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Speaker 16: concerned about a short term pullback in markets. But their

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Speaker 16: recovery has been something that's highlighting that this recovery, this

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Speaker 16: rally in stocks has had farther to go, and they're

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Speaker 16: starting to look late innings right now. If I could

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Speaker 16: use a baseball analogy, so I think that it's happening

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Speaker 16: just a very interesting time when some of them is

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Speaker 16: perhaps not precarious yet in terms of being stretched, but

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Speaker 16: we could see how it could get there pretty fast.

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Speaker 16: So if markets do sort of march through this in

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Speaker 16: the short term, we could get to, you know, sort

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Speaker 16: of a more dire signal. I guess is the way

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Speaker 16: to put it in those cinemonicators at a time that

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Speaker 16: we're getting more clarity. I think it's very very hard

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Speaker 16: to make any big investable conclusions from this right now,

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Speaker 16: but at the margin. I would say this feels like

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Speaker 16: something that should contribute to nervousness at a time when

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Speaker 16: stocks are seasonally under pressure anyway, something investors are very

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Speaker 16: well aware of.

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Speaker 2: And of course we are heading into the second half

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Speaker 2: here coming off the worst week for stocks since March.

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Speaker 2: As far as the S and P five hundred goes,

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Speaker 2: have we topped out as far as the rally goes?

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Speaker 5: Do you think so?

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Speaker 16: It's interesting? I mean, we crossed the forty four hundred

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Speaker 16: more on the S and P. Our target is forty

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Speaker 16: two fifty, but we have pointed out but some of

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Speaker 16: our models have pointed to upside to forty six hundred.

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Speaker 16: We had a couple that were in the forty four

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Speaker 16: hundred area as well, So we feel like the move

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Speaker 16: has been pretty rational. The particular model that tells me

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Speaker 16: that we could go a little bit higher than we've

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Speaker 16: already seen is based on our valuation work and earning forecast,

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Speaker 16: so it's probably one of the more robust models that

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Speaker 16: you know and kind of dependable ones in our data set.

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Speaker 16: But again, I do think the settiment indicators, which have

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Speaker 16: really been something that have kept us on board with

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Speaker 16: being constructive all year. They're starting to look at a

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Speaker 16: point where if you're trying to make an intermediate term

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Speaker 16: call on markets beyond, you know, just a month or two,

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Speaker 16: you start have to start making some caution in what's.

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Speaker 2: The earnings out look look like for you heading into

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Speaker 2: the second half, given that we are expecting that the

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Speaker 2: Fed is going to keep rates higher for longer and

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Speaker 2: perhaps notch things up even more heading into the July meeting.

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Speaker 16: We've got about a minute left, so you know, I

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Speaker 16: think that multiples are really the intersection with rates themselves

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Speaker 16: on the earnings themselves. I expect two thirteen on the year,

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Speaker 16: and one of the things we're consistently surprised on as

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Speaker 16: margins and how resilient they've been, and I, you know,

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Speaker 16: my money would be that we're going to see that

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Speaker 16: continue in this next recording season.

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