WEBVTT - Top 10 NFL Week 16 Player Prop Picks & Predictions (Ep. 627) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.200 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:05.240 your bets. It is meet Joey p Joe Piez a 0:00:05.320 --> 0:00:08.240 PA and this is VP NFL with me as ol. 0:00:08.360 --> 0:00:10.960 Ways to talk props for Week sixteen in the NFL, 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.440 My Boys, the Undertaker, Andrew Rickson and the Welsh. Where 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:15.800 I could take a look at some of the Week 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:19.200 sixteen games that are looming, lots of playoff implications, some 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.440 standalone Saturday games. It's a good time right now. Make 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.120 sure you're subscribing to the Vetting Pros YouTube channel as well. 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:27.160 Make sure you're ring developed notifications because we've got all 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:30.440 the college football bracket stuff going on here, we got 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:32.720 NBA stuff going on here. We've got a lot going on. 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:34.920 And it was a lot going on last night, including 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:38.080 a free kick, something that hasn't happened in my lifetime, 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:41.040 your lifetime, maybe most of the people's lifetimes watching this show. 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:44.240 And it was cool. I liked it. It was fun. 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:49.839 I don't think anybody here was possibly happier than Jim Harbaugh, 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:52.640 who seemed to be waiting for this his entire coaching career. 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:55.640 In the press conference, which is pretty hilarious. So ericson 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:57.720 what did you think of the free kick last night 0:00:57.760 --> 0:01:00.480 in the Chargers rebound against the Denver Broncos. 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:03.120 I absolutely loved it. I loved how the broadcasters talked 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:05.319 about did teams even practice? And the first thing Sean 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:07.440 Payton says after the free kicks, like, yeah, we prepared 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:09.039 for this every single week, we get ready for the 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:11.560 free kick. That hasn't love it connected in fifty years, 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.000 because of course they practiced for it. So I thought 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:15.600 it was fun. Anything that's think different. 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:16.000 I know. 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:17.880 I explained it to my wife and she pretended to care, 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:19.399 and then I knew that she was the one for 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:22.199 me because she's like, oh, like free kick, that sounds 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:23.880 kind of cool. I knew she was lying, but it 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:26.839 made me feel good because this hasn't happened in fifty years, 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:28.920 Like this is cool. And he made it too, like 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:31.240 if he hadn't missed it, Oh, well, that was what. 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:33.200 I was gonna say. Well, could you imagine that there's 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.319 like here you go, nobody's you know, rushing the kicker. 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:39.200 It is literally a free kick, and yet in the 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:41.679 back of your mind you're going, what if he misses this? 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:44.720 What a horrendous situation? This would be, so I mean, 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:47.160 let's talk about that for a second, because the incredible 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:50.320 high of getting that moment only to kind of have 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.400 it go by the wayside, perhaps with the way kicking 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:54.240 has been so terrible in twenty twenty four and I 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:56.360 loved the last couple of years, probably two. But he 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.480 did make it, so everything was pretty on board there. 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.200 But again, something that a lot of us didn't even 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:05.080 know existed and have never seen actually execute it in 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.040 our lifetimes. In nineteen seventy six, I think they said, right. 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:09.720 He was gonna make that. From seventy yeah, But that's 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.840 that's my only issue with this whole thing, though, is 0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:16.080 they're talking about it. They weren't explaining it like I 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:20.000 get conceptually, like it's a free kick. They're like, oh man, guys, 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:21.680 could this be a free kick? We haven't seen this 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.720 in fifty years. Then explain it, say that all the 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:26.680 guys have to line up like it's an ech, like 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:29.240 it's a kickoff. They didn't explain any that it's going 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:32.440 to be put on a tea. There was literally no breakdown. 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:34.320 They just kept saying free kick. If there was a 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:37.560 drinking game, everyone is passed out and still struggling today 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:39.359 because they're like, oh, free kick, free kick, because you 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:41.520 could believe it'd be a free kick, Like what what 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:44.080 are we doing? What is different about the free kick? 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.920 Why is it free? Why doesn't it cost? I don't know. 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:49.079 I thought it was just like so overblown. And then yes, 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:50.600 he made it, and like I said, we'd have made 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:52.720 it from like seventy or seventy five. It's great. 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:54.520 You know there's a better that's been betting on will 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:57.120 there be a free kick? And every single game for 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:01.040 the every NFL slate finally, finally, Victoria. 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.040 I don't know if I don't know if if that even. 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:05.000 Broke somebody out there. 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:07.720 I mean, I don't think that's available. I don't I 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:10.160 can't remember fifty years. I don't even think the sites 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.280 would know what that is because they didn't explain it. 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:13.840 You could be damn sure it's gonna be on there 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:18.440 this week. Oh yeah, right, copycat league? All right, Before 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:20.840 we move on to Week sixteen, any final thoughts from 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:23.000 last week? Eric said, I know you were painfully close 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:24.920 to something. It fell just a little short, little Bryce 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.519 Young action that kind of bitch. You're in the rear end. 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:32.000 Yep so three and two overall, so winning week still positive. 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:34.000 Jalen hurts let me down. He did not throw interception 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:37.240 and Bryceywng came up half a yard short of the 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:40.000 Russian props. So that was very disappointing. And I know 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.040 that Welsh also has feelings about the Carolina Panthers that 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:45.880 basically were underwhelming. They were on the money line, they 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:47.960 were supposed to win, they lost, And I know that 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:49.880 Welsh also lost out on a bed because of the 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:50.760 Carolina Panthers. 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.560 Yeah, three and two also would have been four and 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:56.520 one half of a yard. Adam Thielen was fifty one 0:03:56.680 --> 0:04:00.400 point five and he finished fifty one, so did the 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.080 end of the week three and two. It's been very 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:07.080 profitable over the last month or whatever. But like that 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.600 one hurt, Like the TUA process was bad. He's stuck. 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:13.600 He looked awful. Some of those I'm kicking myself for 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:17.920 not laddering CDE Lamb CD LAMB. Cook rushed as did 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:21.200 Russ Wilson. He hit that one great feeling. One hurts 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.080 just a tiny bit. That's the one where you're like, 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.320 you don't even focus on you having a positive winning 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:27.320 weekend when you lose by a half a yard by 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:29.520 a guy, but both of us three and two ericson. 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.120 We'll take that, all right, just like Boe Belichick. We're 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:34.719 on to Cincinnati. We're on the week sixteen, and of 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:36.719 course we're gonna be using the prop bet cheat sheet. 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:38.440 If you haven't played around with it, make sure you do. 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:40.640 It's the best place to get all of your props. 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:43.279 You could take the matchups, the odds, you could sort everything, positions, 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:45.479 whatever you're looking for. It's so easy to find, and 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:48.280 you're gonna find the projections with the best line where 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.479 to bet it. It makes life so much easier. So 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:52.160 use the propet chia chee. Go to betting pros dot 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.760 com slash props or if you already have the app, 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:56.760 which you should. You should have downloaded the app anyway, 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:58.640 and use the free tools there for the premium side 0:04:58.680 --> 0:04:59.960 for a couple of days. Then I mentioned it's for 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:02.320 and you also get the opportunity to use the prop 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:05.120 betchi ici there. It is an invaluable asset and something 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:07.599 you should be using for the rest of the NFL 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:10.720 season into the playoffs. All right, let's start here, Welsh. 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:12.400 I can't believe you're kicking things off here with the 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:15.520 forty nine ers, like you just just just hate yourself 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:17.240 that much? Is that where we're at right now? Is 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:19.720 that just like continuing to just beat yourself up. I mean, 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:21.839 just let it go. I thought you let the season go. 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.240 Last week it felt like I'm not betting that they're 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:26.800 gonna win, and I'm not betting Deebo Samuel, So I 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:29.200 don't hate myself that much. Like if I want to 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:32.760 hate myself, if you you want to hate yourself, bet 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:35.279 Deebo Samuel receiving yards or anytime I bet he. 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:37.599 Has one hundred down this week, I'm gonna it's just 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:40.840 so clear the over corrections touchdown, it's amazing. 0:05:40.960 --> 0:05:43.279 So no, but what I am gonna and maybe it 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:45.640 is a little self hatred to it, but there's there's 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:48.120 actually just a lot of like situational stuff. Why I 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:51.039 like this one brock Purty over passing touchdowns one and 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:53.360 a half this week and it's plus money and that's 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.760 what really like I like about it. Not to mention, 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:57.840 we've had a lot of bad weather stuff that's been 0:05:57.880 --> 0:06:00.200 going on recently. There's some bad weather games that are 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.599 going on this weekend. It ain't in the Dolphins in 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:05.679 the forty nine Ers game. It should be nice and clear. 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:08.680 Dolphins have given up two passing touchdowns in two of 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:12.520 their last three games. Rock Purty really hasn't, and that's 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:14.600 obviously why this is plus money. At this point, you're 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:16.280 throw in like the you know, bad weather game and 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.280 just the overall poor performance in general. But they're going 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:22.400 into a spot where Juwan Jennings thirteenth best cornerback to 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.440 wide receiver matchup this week and George Kittle graded out. 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:27.920 That's on PFF. By the way, George Kittle graded out 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:31.240 on PFF as the number one tight end from advantage standpoint. 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:35.680 They graded him a sixty eight percent matchup advantage per perspective. 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:39.320 That is twenty percent higher than the next tight end. 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:41.640 That's how far we are going on this one. And 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.719 then when I'm talking about, like, you know, the situational thing, 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:47.839 I just like that they don't have a running back. 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.040 They're down four of them. ISAA Grendo is not going 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.600 to play. You're gonna go to Patrick Taylor, maybe Abana Kanda, 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.440 maybe a little bit of Deebo Samuel. I think what 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:58.040 that is going to end up establishing is not an 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:01.200 established running game they're gone have to throw the ball, 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:05.279 and there's an advantage with Juwan Jennings, with George Kittle. 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.640 I like this. Dolphins are giving it up. I think 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:10.160 they're gonna slang it. There's also you know, Mike McDaniel, 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.720 Kyle Shanahan kind of back and forth. I actually do 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:14.840 think there's gonna be some points scored in this game. 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.760 But obviously I have weird blind spots sometimes with the Niners. 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:21.640 But plus money Brock Party on two touchdowns against the Dolphins, Yep, 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:22.840 that's gonna be my number one. 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:24.400 Yeah, and Purty for the year has been a bit 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:26.480 of a road warrior. Actually, he's been much better on 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:28.600 the road in terms of QBR and all the staffs. 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.400 So that being said, Andrew Erickson looks like you are 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:34.640 piggybacking on the Brock Party front as well. For Week sixteen. 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:37.200 Yeah, I like the over on Brock Parties passing yards 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:39.360 two hundred and forty two and a half passing yards. 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:41.640 I think that the numbers kind of suppressed just because 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:43.880 of the last couple of weeks where they've been bad. 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.200 He's been he had an injury he was dealing with, 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:48.920 He's played in a bad couple bad weather games. They're 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:51.480 playing in Miami, nice and sunny. It's gonna be great. 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:53.720 The Web's gonna be fine. There're two teams that have 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:55.400 been unerwhelming, but I think that they're gonna take their 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:59.000 frustrations out on the opposing defenses. I really think that's 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:01.040 gonna be the case here in the matchup. And I 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:03.200 think the thing to point out with Brock Purty is 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:05.680 so he's gone over this number in six of nine 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:08.800 games with George Kittle, with Debo and John Jennings like 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:10.200 all in the lineup. So when he has all of 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:12.920 his guys, even Debo to an extent like, he usually 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:14.680 goes over this number. And I think that you're just 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:17.239 getting a good value on it because of in recent 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.840 weeks where he's been under in three of four, because 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:22.360 of the things I pointed out injuries and weather, which 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:23.800 I don't think are going to be factors in this 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:26.560 particular matchup. And I think from a next gen stats 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:28.480 point of view, this is someone I was looking at. 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:30.520 So the Dolphins have played cover two at the fifth 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.840 highest rate in the NFL this season, and if you 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:35.160 look at what Party has done against that type of coverage, 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:37.760 nine point two yards per attempt against cover two, third 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:39.560 most in the NFL. So I think they're just gonna 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:41.439 let it rip their down to their fourth string running back. 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:43.480 Is this going to be Patrick Taylor? Twenty carries? Now? 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:46.360 This is hey. Let's rip it with Brock Purdy. Let's 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:48.439 beat up on this Dolphin. I mean Aaron Rodgers three 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:50.120 for three dy yards against the Dolphins. Steve Is the 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:52.599 guy hasn't done it since the Ronald Reagan administration. Come on, 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.880 So I like Purdy, so handholding with Welsh here. Perty's 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:58.680 gonna have himself a day, all right? 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.920 So Brock Purty looking pretty good for week sixteen. Let's 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:05.160 talk about an investment in the New York Giants. Yes, 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:10.559 that's correct, the New York Giants. So again you got 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:12.680 to convince me here on this. Drew Lock's playing quarterback. 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:14.000 I mean, if you can't invest in Drew Lock and 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:15.760 the Giants at this point, what can you invest in? 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:18.040 Let's talk about Milik Neighbors. The number for name is 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:21.000 sixty seven and a half. You think Drew Lock can 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:24.079 get this to an over Let's talk about the why? Yeah? 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:26.720 Well, I mean why as we have gotten there? He 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:28.880 has hit this in three straight games. You're talking about 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:32.080 Milik Neighbors over receiving yard sixty seven and a half. 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:35.400 He has hit this three straight games while receiving thirty 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:39.000 seven targets over that time in a row. No but 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:42.920 thirty seven targets. Falcons giving up the tenth most receiving 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:45.360 yards to wide receivers so far this year. Falcons have 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.800 also given up, if you care about this, the top 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.760 five most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last month. 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.360 And this is a big volume play, So you know, 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:56.080 I'm tempted always with the receptions, way more than you 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.480 guys on some of these things, and I have some 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:01.600 fun reception stuff coming up here. But with this one, 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:04.800 that pure set of volume against a Falcons defense. Like 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:07.800 I said, tenth most receiving yards given up overall. We 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.080 know he's getting targets. He's had double digit targets in 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:13.319 three straight games. He is hitting these numbers. Don't think 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:14.920 this is a great team, but also think they're gonna 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:16.319 be playing from behind. Even though you do have a 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:18.880 rookie quarterback in there and Michael Pennock's starting, I think 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:20.839 he's going to be efficient and that just leads to 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:23.840 them doing more throwing, so always going to Malik Neighbors. 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:27.480 This is a relatively low number. Anything under seventy I 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.760 think is playable. As each yard went down, I felt 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.760 more comfortable. Sixty seven was a fantastic marker. So sixty 0:10:33.800 --> 0:10:36.800 seven and a half over for Elik Neighbors. That's number two. 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:37.760 But I get the hesitation. 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.800 Last week Darnold Mooney was disappointing this week he has 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:45.280 for quarterbacks, So perhaps Michael Pennix, who did have a 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.480 pensant in Washington for making a big plays. You know, 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:50.360 whenever there's like a big throw to you made in 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:52.000 a big moment, he is never afraid of it, which 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:53.480 is something I love about Michael Penicks. And I was 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.160 kind of a defender of Michael Pennix a lot last 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.200 year in a lot of shows, and I enjoy watching 0:10:57.320 --> 0:10:59.440 play quarterback, and I think this is a unique opportunity 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:02.480 against the bad team for him to play through the 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:03.800 nerves a little bit in the first half and then 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.160 maybe settled in. But there's definitely some big play potential 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:07.520 in there. And I know Andrew you and I have 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.959 mentioned before maybe looking for the over on the biggest 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:14.320 pass yardage in a single play for Michael Pennock's being 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:16.640 an interesting one because he does have that big playability 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:18.760 looking for the over on his yards. But there's also 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.080 a receiver that you feel has a good prop this 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:22.960 week is Darnal Mooney. Let's talk about him. 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:25.240 Yeah, Donald Mooney's gonna go over fifty two and a 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:27.480 half receiving arts because they're just They're gonna let it 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:30.040 rip with Michael Pennix too. They're gonna show everybody why 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.000 they took this guy where they did, because this matchup 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:37.199 is chef's kiss for deep ball receivers. Giants defense ranks 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.880 dead lass and EPA per target on passes of twenty 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:41.439 plus air yards and something that I want to point 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:43.680 out about last week's matchup, the Raiders have been good 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.439 defending the deep ball, so that kind of played into 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:49.720 why Donald Mooney was so disappointing. Also considering Kirk Cousins 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.240 at his quarterback, and they decided to run the ball 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:53.720 a million times and never throw. So that's the only 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:55.600 way this beats me would be they just don't get 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.600 enough volume. But Mooney's not a volume based receiver. He 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.319 is a big play special and no defense has been 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:04.240 worse at guarding the deep ball than the New York Giants, 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:06.520 So honestly, it would not surprise me. All they go hard, 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:08.520 play action the first play of the game and they 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:11.439 just rocket it down the field to Darnell Mooney get 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:14.000 the crowd fired up in Atlanta for their new rookie quarterback. 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:17.079 I think that the main takeaways from this game is 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.280 going to be, well, they should have started Michael Penix 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:19.760 months ago. 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:22.520 Well, but that's the problem is like that could be 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.480 the takeaway against the New York Football Giant. Yeah. 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:26.839 Ye, clearly wa wave blown out of proportion and we're 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:28.880 gonna be fading the Falcons the week after, trying. 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:30.199 To think who they play next week? Ericson, do you 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.160 know if the okay? So it's really it's not gonna 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:35.400 make a difference. We're all gonna get excited about Michael Pennis. 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:36.920 Maybe too much money. 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:39.160 Can I ask, is there any temptation I was looking 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.960 as you were starting this to play the longest reception 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.200 for Darnell Mooney just because you know you did have 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.000 that donut. Fifty two yards is a pretty aggressive marker 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.480 off of that. Twenty two and a half is the 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:53.600 longest reception for Darnell Mooney. Boy, that feels kind of good. Ericson, 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.280 would that be something that you would suggest I would 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.040 do if someone is scared to be off of the 0:12:58.080 --> 0:12:59.199 donut for mooney. 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:00.720 I think both make a lot of sense. 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:03.000 If you like the biggest total, then you might as 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.560 well continue with the overrun receiving two. That's just good logic. 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.880 I feel like, I mean, I haven't particularly dove into 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:12.319 the longest receptions prop market this year, but I think 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:14.360 that your point is very spot on. 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:16.320 I think I've only done one on this show and 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.160 hit it Withdvante. It was under twenty. 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:20.640 He does a lot of those on the Thursday nights, 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.360 of course, he loves. Last night was the first time 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:25.199 in like five years that Gus Edwards had a run 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.199 for more than ten yards, and of course that was 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:28.760 one of our prop bets yesterday and then he had 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:30.360 that big run and it was just we were just 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:31.319 laughing about it last week. 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.120 I got hurting that game too. We're like, oh, we're good, 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:34.439 We're good to go, and he comes in. 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:38.040 He text me He's like, I had Gus Edwards Underyard's 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:40.160 longest rush of five. 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.800 And still nothing on Michael Pennock's rushing yards as of 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:46.719 right now on Friday recording is like keep looking for 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.120 rushing yards for Pennix. I don't know what they're going 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.400 to say it at. It could be a wide range. 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:53.040 I think the number is going to be a little 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:54.480 lower than it should be in that first shot out 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:55.880 of the gate. I would take the over on that too. 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:57.640 I think he's gonna get out in space a little bit. 0:13:57.880 --> 0:13:59.679 At one point, something's gonna break down. He's gonna have 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:01.240 a run for at least ten yards, and if he 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.520 has one more over there, I think you're looking at 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:05.440 somewhere around twenty yards. I think rushing for him potentially 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.000 in this game against the Giants. All right, let's move 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:10.280 on to the next pick, and just a quick reminder too, 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:11.880 you can always follow all of our picks too on 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:13.800 betting Pros. Just put our name in the search tab 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:16.480 and you can follow Welsh ericson myself and look at 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:17.720 all the things that we're in on this week. For 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.440 better or worse, we're having fun here. This is what 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.040 we do. Let's talk about a Saturday game here. I'll 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.800 talk about the Baltimore Ravens year. And you've got a 0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:27.120 prop in a running back, but it ain't Dereck Henry. 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.880 It's just as Hill Welsh for receiving yards eighteen and 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:31.440 a half. So let's chat about this one. 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.440 Yeah, I love this one. Eighteen and a half receiving 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.560 yards on Justice Hill caught four passes or more in 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:39.480 three of his last four games. He has hit this 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:43.040 number in two of his last four. Has beat this 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.400 number seven times this year, and by the way, he 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.280 beat this number against the Steelers earlier this year. Steelers 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.880 are giving up or have given up this number to 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:55.120 four of the last five running backs that they've played. 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.400 And this is the formula, especially with any of these 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:00.600 running backs that are not Derek Henry. Love to throw 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:03.720 the ball to Justice Hill. I'm taking yards over receptions 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:05.360 in this point, and I believe it's at two and 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.400 a half on the receptions that it might push to 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.080 three and a half because they do throw on the ball. Also, 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:15.840 if you are a believer in the Lamar Jackson struggles 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:19.880 kryptonite of the Pittsburgh Steelers, even better because then he's 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.880 going to be less efficient, They're not going to be 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.560 moving the ball. You're gonna have a closer game, and 0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:26.960 you're gonna have more dump offs to Justice Hill. Plus 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.600 you know, like Deck Henry is a monster, but the 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:33.240 Pittsburgh Steelers are a pretty tough run defense. Don't be 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:35.320 shocked when you see a little bit more Justice Hill 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:37.480 and they start moving to a passing game. God forbid, 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:39.720 the Steelers were to get up in this game. But again, 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:42.280 he hit this against the Steelers before. This is his 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:47.160 primary role in the Baltimore Ravens offense. I love this 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.760 one under twenty eighteen and a half is the over. 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:52.280 Maybe you see it move a tiny bit more. One 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:52.960 of my favorites. 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:55.440 All Right, the New York Jets and Rams are gonna 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.920 face off this weekend, and last time we saw Matthew Stafford, 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:00.880 things didn't look all that good. However, despite the fact 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:03.480 he's coming off his second worst passing total of the 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:06.280 season last week, just one hundred and sixty yards. The 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:08.240 only week that was lower than that was Week seven 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.200 against Las Vegas, where he's at one fifty four. You're confident, 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:15.200 Matthew Stafford. Now, the Jets have been a top eight 0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:18.080 or so defense in terms of receiving yards given up. 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:20.880 So why are you looking for that bounce back this week? 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:22.880 Is it's just the motivation here of Stafford and the 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:25.840 Rams to make that final playoff push. 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.640 Well, lately, the Jets haven't been that great against quarterbacks. 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:30.920 For the last five quarterbacks the Jets have faced have 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.080 given up two hundred and sixty five passing yards at 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:35.360 least hit that number. And we look at Stafford and 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:36.920 what he's done when he's had his guys this year, 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.760 between Pupkin, Deakua and Cooper Cup, gone over this number 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:42.720 and seven of his last nine starts. Now, obviously last 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.000 week didn't work out. All of my prize picks pick'ems 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.160 all burned to flames because I was paying rock perty 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.600