Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is meet Joey p Joe Piez a
Speaker 1: PA and this is VP NFL with me as ol.
Speaker 1: Ways to talk props for Week sixteen in the NFL,
Speaker 1: My Boys, the Undertaker, Andrew Rickson and the Welsh. Where
Speaker 1: I could take a look at some of the Week
Speaker 1: sixteen games that are looming, lots of playoff implications, some
Speaker 1: standalone Saturday games. It's a good time right now. Make
Speaker 1: sure you're subscribing to the Vetting Pros YouTube channel as well.
Speaker 1: Make sure you're ring developed notifications because we've got all
Speaker 1: the college football bracket stuff going on here, we got
Speaker 1: NBA stuff going on here. We've got a lot going on.
Speaker 1: And it was a lot going on last night, including
Speaker 1: a free kick, something that hasn't happened in my lifetime,
Speaker 1: your lifetime, maybe most of the people's lifetimes watching this show.
Speaker 1: And it was cool. I liked it. It was fun.
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody here was possibly happier than Jim Harbaugh,
Speaker 1: who seemed to be waiting for this his entire coaching career.
Speaker 1: In the press conference, which is pretty hilarious. So ericson
Speaker 1: what did you think of the free kick last night
Speaker 1: in the Chargers rebound against the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 2: I absolutely loved it. I loved how the broadcasters talked
Speaker 2: about did teams even practice? And the first thing Sean
Speaker 2: Payton says after the free kicks, like, yeah, we prepared
Speaker 2: for this every single week, we get ready for the
Speaker 2: free kick. That hasn't love it connected in fifty years,
Speaker 2: because of course they practiced for it. So I thought
Speaker 2: it was fun. Anything that's think different.
Speaker 1: I know.
Speaker 2: I explained it to my wife and she pretended to care,
Speaker 2: and then I knew that she was the one for
Speaker 2: me because she's like, oh, like free kick, that sounds
Speaker 2: kind of cool. I knew she was lying, but it
Speaker 2: made me feel good because this hasn't happened in fifty years,
Speaker 2: Like this is cool. And he made it too, like
Speaker 2: if he hadn't missed it, Oh, well, that was what.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say. Well, could you imagine that there's
Speaker 1: like here you go, nobody's you know, rushing the kicker.
Speaker 1: It is literally a free kick, and yet in the
Speaker 1: back of your mind you're going, what if he misses this?
Speaker 1: What a horrendous situation? This would be, so I mean,
Speaker 1: let's talk about that for a second, because the incredible
Speaker 1: high of getting that moment only to kind of have
Speaker 1: it go by the wayside, perhaps with the way kicking
Speaker 1: has been so terrible in twenty twenty four and I
Speaker 1: loved the last couple of years, probably two. But he
Speaker 1: did make it, so everything was pretty on board there.
Speaker 1: But again, something that a lot of us didn't even
Speaker 1: know existed and have never seen actually execute it in
Speaker 1: our lifetimes. In nineteen seventy six, I think they said, right.
Speaker 3: He was gonna make that. From seventy yeah, But that's
Speaker 3: that's my only issue with this whole thing, though, is
Speaker 3: they're talking about it. They weren't explaining it like I
Speaker 3: get conceptually, like it's a free kick. They're like, oh man, guys,
Speaker 3: could this be a free kick? We haven't seen this
Speaker 3: in fifty years. Then explain it, say that all the
Speaker 3: guys have to line up like it's an ech, like
Speaker 3: it's a kickoff. They didn't explain any that it's going
Speaker 3: to be put on a tea. There was literally no breakdown.
Speaker 3: They just kept saying free kick. If there was a
Speaker 3: drinking game, everyone is passed out and still struggling today
Speaker 3: because they're like, oh, free kick, free kick, because you
Speaker 3: could believe it'd be a free kick, Like what what
Speaker 3: are we doing? What is different about the free kick?
Speaker 3: Why is it free? Why doesn't it cost? I don't know.
Speaker 3: I thought it was just like so overblown. And then yes,
Speaker 3: he made it, and like I said, we'd have made
Speaker 3: it from like seventy or seventy five. It's great.
Speaker 2: You know there's a better that's been betting on will
Speaker 2: there be a free kick? And every single game for
Speaker 2: the every NFL slate finally, finally, Victoria.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I don't know if if that even.
Speaker 2: Broke somebody out there.
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think that's available. I don't I
Speaker 3: can't remember fifty years. I don't even think the sites
Speaker 3: would know what that is because they didn't explain it.
Speaker 1: You could be damn sure it's gonna be on there
Speaker 1: this week. Oh yeah, right, copycat league? All right, Before
Speaker 1: we move on to Week sixteen, any final thoughts from
Speaker 1: last week? Eric said, I know you were painfully close
Speaker 1: to something. It fell just a little short, little Bryce
Speaker 1: Young action that kind of bitch. You're in the rear end.
Speaker 2: Yep so three and two overall, so winning week still positive.
Speaker 2: Jalen hurts let me down. He did not throw interception
Speaker 2: and Bryceywng came up half a yard short of the
Speaker 2: Russian props. So that was very disappointing. And I know
Speaker 2: that Welsh also has feelings about the Carolina Panthers that
Speaker 2: basically were underwhelming. They were on the money line, they
Speaker 2: were supposed to win, they lost, And I know that
Speaker 2: Welsh also lost out on a bed because of the
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, three and two also would have been four and
Speaker 3: one half of a yard. Adam Thielen was fifty one
Speaker 3: point five and he finished fifty one, so did the
Speaker 3: end of the week three and two. It's been very
Speaker 3: profitable over the last month or whatever. But like that
Speaker 3: one hurt, Like the TUA process was bad. He's stuck.
Speaker 3: He looked awful. Some of those I'm kicking myself for
Speaker 3: not laddering CDE Lamb CD LAMB. Cook rushed as did
Speaker 3: Russ Wilson. He hit that one great feeling. One hurts
Speaker 3: just a tiny bit. That's the one where you're like,
Speaker 3: you don't even focus on you having a positive winning
Speaker 3: weekend when you lose by a half a yard by
Speaker 3: a guy, but both of us three and two ericson.
Speaker 1: We'll take that, all right, just like Boe Belichick. We're
Speaker 1: on to Cincinnati. We're on the week sixteen, and of
Speaker 1: course we're gonna be using the prop bet cheat sheet.
Speaker 1: If you haven't played around with it, make sure you do.
Speaker 1: It's the best place to get all of your props.
Speaker 1: You could take the matchups, the odds, you could sort everything, positions,
Speaker 1: whatever you're looking for. It's so easy to find, and
Speaker 1: you're gonna find the projections with the best line where
Speaker 1: to bet it. It makes life so much easier. So
Speaker 1: use the propet chia chee. Go to betting pros dot
Speaker 1: com slash props or if you already have the app,
Speaker 1: which you should. You should have downloaded the app anyway,
Speaker 1: and use the free tools there for the premium side
Speaker 1: for a couple of days. Then I mentioned it's for
Speaker 1: and you also get the opportunity to use the prop
Speaker 1: betchi ici there. It is an invaluable asset and something
Speaker 1: you should be using for the rest of the NFL
Speaker 1: season into the playoffs. All right, let's start here, Welsh.
Speaker 1: I can't believe you're kicking things off here with the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers, like you just just just hate yourself
Speaker 1: that much? Is that where we're at right now? Is
Speaker 1: that just like continuing to just beat yourself up. I mean,
Speaker 1: just let it go. I thought you let the season go.
Speaker 3: Last week it felt like I'm not betting that they're
Speaker 3: gonna win, and I'm not betting Deebo Samuel, So I
Speaker 3: don't hate myself that much. Like if I want to
Speaker 3: hate myself, if you you want to hate yourself, bet
Speaker 3: Deebo Samuel receiving yards or anytime I bet he.
Speaker 1: Has one hundred down this week, I'm gonna it's just
Speaker 1: so clear the over corrections touchdown, it's amazing.
Speaker 3: So no, but what I am gonna and maybe it
Speaker 3: is a little self hatred to it, but there's there's
Speaker 3: actually just a lot of like situational stuff. Why I
Speaker 3: like this one brock Purty over passing touchdowns one and
Speaker 3: a half this week and it's plus money and that's
Speaker 3: what really like I like about it. Not to mention,
Speaker 3: we've had a lot of bad weather stuff that's been
Speaker 3: going on recently. There's some bad weather games that are
Speaker 3: going on this weekend. It ain't in the Dolphins in
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers game. It should be nice and clear.
Speaker 3: Dolphins have given up two passing touchdowns in two of
Speaker 3: their last three games. Rock Purty really hasn't, and that's
Speaker 3: obviously why this is plus money. At this point, you're
Speaker 3: throw in like the you know, bad weather game and
Speaker 3: just the overall poor performance in general. But they're going
Speaker 3: into a spot where Juwan Jennings thirteenth best cornerback to
Speaker 3: wide receiver matchup this week and George Kittle graded out.
Speaker 3: That's on PFF. By the way, George Kittle graded out
Speaker 3: on PFF as the number one tight end from advantage standpoint.
Speaker 3: They graded him a sixty eight percent matchup advantage per perspective.
Speaker 3: That is twenty percent higher than the next tight end.
Speaker 3: That's how far we are going on this one. And
Speaker 3: then when I'm talking about, like, you know, the situational thing,
Speaker 3: I just like that they don't have a running back.
Speaker 3: They're down four of them. ISAA Grendo is not going
Speaker 3: to play. You're gonna go to Patrick Taylor, maybe Abana Kanda,
Speaker 3: maybe a little bit of Deebo Samuel. I think what
Speaker 3: that is going to end up establishing is not an
Speaker 3: established running game they're gone have to throw the ball,
Speaker 3: and there's an advantage with Juwan Jennings, with George Kittle.
Speaker 3: I like this. Dolphins are giving it up. I think
Speaker 3: they're gonna slang it. There's also you know, Mike McDaniel,
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan kind of back and forth. I actually do
Speaker 3: think there's gonna be some points scored in this game.
Speaker 3: But obviously I have weird blind spots sometimes with the Niners.
Speaker 3: But plus money Brock Party on two touchdowns against the Dolphins, Yep,
Speaker 3: that's gonna be my number one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Purty for the year has been a bit
Speaker 1: of a road warrior. Actually, he's been much better on
Speaker 1: the road in terms of QBR and all the staffs.
Speaker 1: So that being said, Andrew Erickson looks like you are
Speaker 1: piggybacking on the Brock Party front as well. For Week sixteen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the over on Brock Parties passing yards
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty two and a half passing yards.
Speaker 2: I think that the numbers kind of suppressed just because
Speaker 2: of the last couple of weeks where they've been bad.
Speaker 2: He's been he had an injury he was dealing with,
Speaker 2: He's played in a bad couple bad weather games. They're
Speaker 2: playing in Miami, nice and sunny. It's gonna be great.
Speaker 2: The Web's gonna be fine. There're two teams that have
Speaker 2: been unerwhelming, but I think that they're gonna take their
Speaker 2: frustrations out on the opposing defenses. I really think that's
Speaker 2: gonna be the case here in the matchup. And I
Speaker 2: think the thing to point out with Brock Purty is
Speaker 2: so he's gone over this number in six of nine
Speaker 2: games with George Kittle, with Debo and John Jennings like
Speaker 2: all in the lineup. So when he has all of
Speaker 2: his guys, even Debo to an extent like, he usually
Speaker 2: goes over this number. And I think that you're just
Speaker 2: getting a good value on it because of in recent
Speaker 2: weeks where he's been under in three of four, because
Speaker 2: of the things I pointed out injuries and weather, which
Speaker 2: I don't think are going to be factors in this
Speaker 2: particular matchup. And I think from a next gen stats
Speaker 2: point of view, this is someone I was looking at.
Speaker 2: So the Dolphins have played cover two at the fifth
Speaker 2: highest rate in the NFL this season, and if you
Speaker 2: look at what Party has done against that type of coverage,
Speaker 2: nine point two yards per attempt against cover two, third
Speaker 2: most in the NFL. So I think they're just gonna
Speaker 2: let it rip their down to their fourth string running back.
Speaker 2: Is this going to be Patrick Taylor? Twenty carries? Now?
Speaker 2: This is hey. Let's rip it with Brock Purdy. Let's
Speaker 2: beat up on this Dolphin. I mean Aaron Rodgers three
Speaker 2: for three dy yards against the Dolphins. Steve Is the
Speaker 2: guy hasn't done it since the Ronald Reagan administration. Come on,
Speaker 2: So I like Purdy, so handholding with Welsh here. Perty's
Speaker 2: gonna have himself a day, all right?
Speaker 1: So Brock Purty looking pretty good for week sixteen. Let's
Speaker 1: talk about an investment in the New York Giants. Yes,
Speaker 1: that's correct, the New York Giants. So again you got
Speaker 1: to convince me here on this. Drew Lock's playing quarterback.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you can't invest in Drew Lock and
Speaker 1: the Giants at this point, what can you invest in?
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Milik Neighbors. The number for name is
Speaker 1: sixty seven and a half. You think Drew Lock can
Speaker 1: get this to an over Let's talk about the why? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean why as we have gotten there? He
Speaker 3: has hit this in three straight games. You're talking about
Speaker 3: Milik Neighbors over receiving yard sixty seven and a half.
Speaker 3: He has hit this three straight games while receiving thirty
Speaker 3: seven targets over that time in a row. No but
Speaker 3: thirty seven targets. Falcons giving up the tenth most receiving
Speaker 3: yards to wide receivers so far this year. Falcons have
Speaker 3: also given up, if you care about this, the top
Speaker 3: five most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last month.
Speaker 3: And this is a big volume play, So you know,
Speaker 3: I'm tempted always with the receptions, way more than you
Speaker 3: guys on some of these things, and I have some
Speaker 3: fun reception stuff coming up here. But with this one,
Speaker 3: that pure set of volume against a Falcons defense. Like
Speaker 3: I said, tenth most receiving yards given up overall. We
Speaker 3: know he's getting targets. He's had double digit targets in
Speaker 3: three straight games. He is hitting these numbers. Don't think
Speaker 3: this is a great team, but also think they're gonna
Speaker 3: be playing from behind. Even though you do have a
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback in there and Michael Pennock's starting, I think
Speaker 3: he's going to be efficient and that just leads to
Speaker 3: them doing more throwing, so always going to Malik Neighbors.
Speaker 3: This is a relatively low number. Anything under seventy I
Speaker 3: think is playable. As each yard went down, I felt
Speaker 3: more comfortable. Sixty seven was a fantastic marker. So sixty
Speaker 3: seven and a half over for Elik Neighbors. That's number two.
Speaker 3: But I get the hesitation.
Speaker 1: Last week Darnold Mooney was disappointing this week he has
Speaker 1: for quarterbacks, So perhaps Michael Pennix, who did have a
Speaker 1: pensant in Washington for making a big plays. You know,
Speaker 1: whenever there's like a big throw to you made in
Speaker 1: a big moment, he is never afraid of it, which
Speaker 1: is something I love about Michael Penicks. And I was
Speaker 1: kind of a defender of Michael Pennix a lot last
Speaker 1: year in a lot of shows, and I enjoy watching
Speaker 1: play quarterback, and I think this is a unique opportunity
Speaker 1: against the bad team for him to play through the
Speaker 1: nerves a little bit in the first half and then
Speaker 1: maybe settled in. But there's definitely some big play potential
Speaker 1: in there. And I know Andrew you and I have
Speaker 1: mentioned before maybe looking for the over on the biggest
Speaker 1: pass yardage in a single play for Michael Pennock's being
Speaker 1: an interesting one because he does have that big playability
Speaker 1: looking for the over on his yards. But there's also
Speaker 1: a receiver that you feel has a good prop this
Speaker 1: week is Darnal Mooney. Let's talk about him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Donald Mooney's gonna go over fifty two and a
Speaker 2: half receiving arts because they're just They're gonna let it
Speaker 2: rip with Michael Pennix too. They're gonna show everybody why
Speaker 2: they took this guy where they did, because this matchup
Speaker 2: is chef's kiss for deep ball receivers. Giants defense ranks
Speaker 2: dead lass and EPA per target on passes of twenty
Speaker 2: plus air yards and something that I want to point
Speaker 2: out about last week's matchup, the Raiders have been good
Speaker 2: defending the deep ball, so that kind of played into
Speaker 2: why Donald Mooney was so disappointing. Also considering Kirk Cousins
Speaker 2: at his quarterback, and they decided to run the ball
Speaker 2: a million times and never throw. So that's the only
Speaker 2: way this beats me would be they just don't get
Speaker 2: enough volume. But Mooney's not a volume based receiver. He
Speaker 2: is a big play special and no defense has been
Speaker 2: worse at guarding the deep ball than the New York Giants,
Speaker 2: So honestly, it would not surprise me. All they go hard,
Speaker 2: play action the first play of the game and they
Speaker 2: just rocket it down the field to Darnell Mooney get
Speaker 2: the crowd fired up in Atlanta for their new rookie quarterback.
Speaker 2: I think that the main takeaways from this game is
Speaker 2: going to be, well, they should have started Michael Penix
Speaker 2: months ago.
Speaker 1: Well, but that's the problem is like that could be
Speaker 1: the takeaway against the New York Football Giant. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Ye, clearly wa wave blown out of proportion and we're
Speaker 2: gonna be fading the Falcons the week after, trying.
Speaker 1: To think who they play next week? Ericson, do you
Speaker 1: know if the okay? So it's really it's not gonna
Speaker 1: make a difference. We're all gonna get excited about Michael Pennis.
Speaker 1: Maybe too much money.
Speaker 3: Can I ask, is there any temptation I was looking
Speaker 3: as you were starting this to play the longest reception
Speaker 3: for Darnell Mooney just because you know you did have
Speaker 3: that donut. Fifty two yards is a pretty aggressive marker
Speaker 3: off of that. Twenty two and a half is the
Speaker 3: longest reception for Darnell Mooney. Boy, that feels kind of good. Ericson,
Speaker 3: would that be something that you would suggest I would
Speaker 3: do if someone is scared to be off of the
Speaker 3: donut for mooney.
Speaker 2: I think both make a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: If you like the biggest total, then you might as
Speaker 1: well continue with the overrun receiving two. That's just good logic.
Speaker 2: I feel like, I mean, I haven't particularly dove into
Speaker 2: the longest receptions prop market this year, but I think
Speaker 2: that your point is very spot on.
Speaker 3: I think I've only done one on this show and
Speaker 3: hit it Withdvante. It was under twenty.
Speaker 1: He does a lot of those on the Thursday nights,
Speaker 1: of course, he loves. Last night was the first time
Speaker 1: in like five years that Gus Edwards had a run
Speaker 1: for more than ten yards, and of course that was
Speaker 1: one of our prop bets yesterday and then he had
Speaker 1: that big run and it was just we were just
Speaker 1: laughing about it last week.
Speaker 2: I got hurting that game too. We're like, oh, we're good,
Speaker 2: We're good to go, and he comes in.
Speaker 3: He text me He's like, I had Gus Edwards Underyard's
Speaker 3: longest rush of five.
Speaker 1: And still nothing on Michael Pennock's rushing yards as of
Speaker 1: right now on Friday recording is like keep looking for
Speaker 1: rushing yards for Pennix. I don't know what they're going
Speaker 1: to say it at. It could be a wide range.
Speaker 1: I think the number is going to be a little
Speaker 1: lower than it should be in that first shot out
Speaker 1: of the gate. I would take the over on that too.
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna get out in space a little bit.
Speaker 1: At one point, something's gonna break down. He's gonna have
Speaker 1: a run for at least ten yards, and if he
Speaker 1: has one more over there, I think you're looking at
Speaker 1: somewhere around twenty yards. I think rushing for him potentially
Speaker 1: in this game against the Giants. All right, let's move
Speaker 1: on to the next pick, and just a quick reminder too,
Speaker 1: you can always follow all of our picks too on
Speaker 1: betting Pros. Just put our name in the search tab
Speaker 1: and you can follow Welsh ericson myself and look at
Speaker 1: all the things that we're in on this week. For
Speaker 1: better or worse, we're having fun here. This is what
Speaker 1: we do. Let's talk about a Saturday game here. I'll
Speaker 1: talk about the Baltimore Ravens year. And you've got a
Speaker 1: prop in a running back, but it ain't Dereck Henry.
Speaker 1: It's just as Hill Welsh for receiving yards eighteen and
Speaker 1: a half. So let's chat about this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love this one. Eighteen and a half receiving
Speaker 3: yards on Justice Hill caught four passes or more in
Speaker 3: three of his last four games. He has hit this
Speaker 3: number in two of his last four. Has beat this
Speaker 3: number seven times this year, and by the way, he
Speaker 3: beat this number against the Steelers earlier this year. Steelers
Speaker 3: are giving up or have given up this number to
Speaker 3: four of the last five running backs that they've played.
Speaker 3: And this is the formula, especially with any of these
Speaker 3: running backs that are not Derek Henry. Love to throw
Speaker 3: the ball to Justice Hill. I'm taking yards over receptions
Speaker 3: in this point, and I believe it's at two and
Speaker 3: a half on the receptions that it might push to
Speaker 3: three and a half because they do throw on the ball. Also,
Speaker 3: if you are a believer in the Lamar Jackson struggles
Speaker 3: kryptonite of the Pittsburgh Steelers, even better because then he's
Speaker 3: going to be less efficient, They're not going to be
Speaker 3: moving the ball. You're gonna have a closer game, and
Speaker 3: you're gonna have more dump offs to Justice Hill. Plus
Speaker 3: you know, like Deck Henry is a monster, but the
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Steelers are a pretty tough run defense. Don't be
Speaker 3: shocked when you see a little bit more Justice Hill
Speaker 3: and they start moving to a passing game. God forbid,
Speaker 3: the Steelers were to get up in this game. But again,
Speaker 3: he hit this against the Steelers before. This is his
Speaker 3: primary role in the Baltimore Ravens offense. I love this
Speaker 3: one under twenty eighteen and a half is the over.
Speaker 3: Maybe you see it move a tiny bit more. One
Speaker 3: of my favorites.
Speaker 1: All Right, the New York Jets and Rams are gonna
Speaker 1: face off this weekend, and last time we saw Matthew Stafford,
Speaker 1: things didn't look all that good. However, despite the fact
Speaker 1: he's coming off his second worst passing total of the
Speaker 1: season last week, just one hundred and sixty yards. The
Speaker 1: only week that was lower than that was Week seven
Speaker 1: against Las Vegas, where he's at one fifty four. You're confident,
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford. Now, the Jets have been a top eight
Speaker 1: or so defense in terms of receiving yards given up.
Speaker 1: So why are you looking for that bounce back this week?
Speaker 1: Is it's just the motivation here of Stafford and the
Speaker 1: Rams to make that final playoff push.
Speaker 2: Well, lately, the Jets haven't been that great against quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: For the last five quarterbacks the Jets have faced have
Speaker 2: given up two hundred and sixty five passing yards at
Speaker 2: least hit that number. And we look at Stafford and
Speaker 2: what he's done when he's had his guys this year,
Speaker 2: between Pupkin, Deakua and Cooper Cup, gone over this number
Speaker 2: and seven of his last nine starts. Now, obviously last
Speaker 2: week didn't work out. All of my prize picks pick'ems
Speaker 2: all burned to flames because I was paying rock perty
Speaker 2: with Matthew Stafford. Oh this is a lock, baby. They
Speaker 2: got all their guys and then the weather had different ideas.
Speaker 2: But I'm going right back to it because I don't
Speaker 2: think that the process was terrible. When they've had their
Speaker 2: healthy guys receivers this year, they've been going over this
Speaker 2: passing yards not afraid of the Jets six most deep
Speaker 2: passes face this season. And I think an interesting way
Speaker 2: to play this actually is with the over on Cooper
Speaker 2: Cup and his receiving yards, because every time Stafford has
Speaker 2: gone over this number, he's brought Cooper Cup along for
Speaker 2: the ride. And you look at the Jets worst defense
Speaker 2: against slot receivers this season. So if you want a
Speaker 2: little bit of a bigger payout, pair Matthew Stafford with
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup and a little bit of correlated parlay action.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the fourth pick for everybody
Speaker 1: here and well, for this next one, you've got a
Speaker 1: little duo action. Let's talk about this. You seem very
Speaker 1: excited about this one, so I want to hear it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, the next two I'm going to be throwing
Speaker 3: at you. I'm switching stuff up for some fun here.
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna drop I don't know if I've done
Speaker 3: this this year because I used to do this last year.
Speaker 3: I'm dropping a reception parlay. Nothing crazy. Two players who've
Speaker 3: got some juice numbers, and the reason they're juiced is
Speaker 3: because everybody likes them. We are pairing Cuba Hubbard receptions
Speaker 3: with Jalen Warren receptions, and we are getting over two
Speaker 3: and a half each plus one essentially one fifty fifty six.
Speaker 3: I had it. The number is going to vary when
Speaker 3: you guys lock it in if you do. Cardinals are
Speaker 3: giving up the tenth most receptions to running backs on
Speaker 3: the year and the fifth most over the last month,
Speaker 3: So this is a Chuba thing. Cuba has caught four
Speaker 3: two straight games and three of his last five bank
Speaker 3: Now we move to Jalen who has hit this in
Speaker 3: three of his last five games, including four against Baltimore Ravens.
Speaker 3: Baltimore has given up the eighth most receptions to running
Speaker 3: backs on the year, and the Jalen Warren one is
Speaker 3: probably my most confident play if someone wanted to mess
Speaker 3: around with it, just simply because I don't think the
Speaker 3: Steelers are going to be able to really successfully run
Speaker 3: against this team. Jalen Warren is the better running back
Speaker 3: they're gonna throw to him. He caught four against Baltimore.
Speaker 3: It's at two and a half with Big Juice. Don't
Speaker 3: love to play like minus one sixty five's individually, but
Speaker 3: I do love pairing these two guys together. Tuba seems
Speaker 3: a tiny bit more risky, but you know, hitting those
Speaker 3: in the last two since Brooks has been out, he
Speaker 3: is the top dog. Even when he struggles and dis
Speaker 3: points me in fantasy and betting last week, He's going
Speaker 3: to get back to it laying out why you can
Speaker 3: do that against the Cardinals. So two and a half
Speaker 3: receptions on both Jalen and Cuba get plus money, little
Speaker 3: reception parlay.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to New England. Here the Patriots
Speaker 1: going to get their ass kicked by the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: But the one to think about the Bills the defense
Speaker 1: continues to give up just points after points after points.
Speaker 1: So how do we translate that into a wager that
Speaker 1: makes sense with the Patriots side of things?
Speaker 2: Andrew, I'm chasing the trend because we've been betting on
Speaker 2: this all year long. Bet on running back receiving props
Speaker 2: against the Buffalo Bills. I brought to the table last
Speaker 2: week Dave Montgomery, and he hit it and he got
Speaker 2: injured in that game, but it didn't even matter because
Speaker 2: he still went over his receiving yards and it actually
Speaker 2: moved up to before closer to kickoffs. So for me,
Speaker 2: Romandre Stevenson looking at his receiving yards, he's gone over
Speaker 2: twelve and a half receiving yards in five of his
Speaker 2: last seven games. And like I said, Bill's defense top
Speaker 2: three most yards, catches and targets to running backs this
Speaker 2: season allowed. In the passing game, we know the Patriots
Speaker 2: are going to be throwing a negative game script, and
Speaker 2: I think that reminder. I mean on the first drive,
Speaker 2: so over twelve and a half receiving yards for me
Speaker 2: against the Buffalo Bills for Remandre.
Speaker 1: Okay, so Remandre is on the ticket as well. Let's
Speaker 1: do one more and then we'll get to the touchdown calls.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about those Eagles. Jalen Hurts obviously continue to
Speaker 1: push this team forward right now. The Eagles I think
Speaker 1: are in the driver's seat, to tell you the truth,
Speaker 1: for this conference. I think they went at the line
Speaker 1: on both sides of the football. They can run the football.
Speaker 1: You play defense, run the football. That's usually a good formula.
Speaker 1: So what do we want to do this week when
Speaker 1: it comes to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles?
Speaker 3: Welsh So we're going to do the thing that feels
Speaker 3: scariest with Jalen Hurts, and we're going to go with
Speaker 3: passing touchdowns. This is my I don't think I've ever
Speaker 3: done something like this. This is a variant of a
Speaker 3: passing touchdown ladder that we're going to play. So the
Speaker 3: main play here, and I'll tell you why I got
Speaker 3: so excited, but the main play here is over one
Speaker 3: point five passing touchdowns because it was plus and is
Speaker 3: plus one seventy five, so almost two to one for
Speaker 3: that to hit. Jalen Hurts has hit this in two
Speaker 3: two straight games. Aj Brown is currently being given the
Speaker 3: seventh best wide receiver quarnerback matchup where we're looking at
Speaker 3: him in general and that offense being able to pass.
Speaker 3: The Commanders have given up six touchdowns receiving over the
Speaker 3: last month. Commanders also have given up the second least
Speaker 3: fantasy points just running out fantasy points for a second
Speaker 3: to running backs over the last month, and the least
Speaker 3: rushing yards. So if the running game is taken away
Speaker 3: a little bit, they're going to be passing more. Hurts.
Speaker 3: This is my other stat I'm going to throw out
Speaker 3: here for a second, so that ends that over two touchdowns.
Speaker 3: He's hitting it. By the way, if you remember, the
Speaker 3: Commanders were just like absolutely atrocious at the beginning of
Speaker 3: the year. I love this spot now. I got all
Speaker 3: giddy when I was looking at his numbers because I've
Speaker 3: been peeking around at three touchdowns and his three touchdown
Speaker 3: number is plus seven fifty this week, plus seven to fifty.
Speaker 3: So take all of the two touchdowns stuff we talked about,
Speaker 3: it's great matchup Commanders. They had the five time touchdown
Speaker 3: giving up game earlier in the year. Pick all of
Speaker 3: that stuff in there. Just a fun little anecdotal thing
Speaker 3: in here. This is a sprinkle bet. This isn't anything crazy.
Speaker 3: I bet you know my full unit size on Jalen Hurts.
Speaker 3: Do a little bit of sprinkle when it's plus seven
Speaker 3: to fifty. But just as an anecdotal thing. Hurts every
Speaker 3: year of his career has had at least one game
Speaker 3: of throwing three or more touchdowns every single year of
Speaker 3: his career except for this year. Things are starting to
Speaker 3: turn around. They're passing the ball better divisional game, by
Speaker 3: the way. I think he's got for the last four
Speaker 3: years three career games against Washington where he's thrown three
Speaker 3: or more touchdowns in a game. This is a game
Speaker 3: where the passing side gets right. Two touchdowns is the
Speaker 3: play almost two to one. Little bit of a sprinkle
Speaker 3: on three touchdowns at seven and a half to one
Speaker 3: for Jalen Hurts against the Commanders.
Speaker 1: I love it. Does the AJ Brown ankle give you
Speaker 1: any pause whatsoever on this?
Speaker 3: If he's active? It doesn't.
Speaker 2: Okay, there you go, Oh, I would say too. So
Speaker 2: it's actually interested actually looking at some of the receivers
Speaker 2: for the because I was thinking about, Okay, if he's
Speaker 2: throwing multiple touchdowns, who's it going to? And right now,
Speaker 2: I don't know if this is injury related. It must
Speaker 2: be because you're getting plus nine fifty on Davonta Smith
Speaker 2: two touchdowns versus A J. Brown at plus eleven hundred.
Speaker 2: I also know that this time around, Latimore is gonna
Speaker 2: be active for the Commanders and they're probably gonna put
Speaker 2: him on AJ Brown. So I kind of like some
Speaker 2: of these.
Speaker 3: Oh so you're turning this into a dvante.
Speaker 2: I kind of like, where's the ball gonna go? I
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean AJB was last week right like
Speaker 2: that was his big So like I'm thinking Calcata, I'm
Speaker 2: thinking about that.
Speaker 3: How about another obvious one. How about another obvious one
Speaker 3: that I didn't even talk about in here, Saquon Barkley
Speaker 3: Barkley if they're yeah, but if Saquon Barkley is also
Speaker 3: not able to completely do this through the ground, as
Speaker 3: Washington has locked it down over the last month, Saquon
Speaker 3: Barkley is also the option. So I know exactly what
Speaker 3: you're saying here, and again the three touchdowns is the
Speaker 3: risky thing. I don't think you should go anything nuts.
Speaker 3: I didn't go nuts with it. I love the two
Speaker 3: touchdowns here, AJ Brown, maybe not AJ Brown love the
Speaker 3: two touchdowns. To me, it's a sprinkle on the three
Speaker 3: touchdowns because that is such a massively massively.
Speaker 2: It is also a cookie season, so got to get
Speaker 2: those sprinkles.
Speaker 1: Then there you go sprinkle.
Speaker 3: I met someone that said they don't like sprinkle like.
Speaker 3: They were like, not like, just like I don't like sprinkles,
Speaker 3: but we're like sprinkles ruined cookies, And I was like,
Speaker 3: what they ruined?
Speaker 1: Wrong with you? Get out of it, Get out of
Speaker 1: this country. What's wrong with you? You know, like sprinkles ruin.
Speaker 3: I mean you cannot like them, but they don't ruin Erickson.
Speaker 1: The last one you're going to talk about is one
Speaker 1: that I've already bet. I've got a parlay as well.
Speaker 1: It's one of my favorites of the week. It's the
Speaker 1: Jared Goff passing yardage total. You got a two fifty
Speaker 1: five and a half. You're going under. I'm going under.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I think this game is going to
Speaker 1: get a little gross. Golf outside historically has not been good.
Speaker 1: The the injuries to the defense. I just you know,
Speaker 1: I have my concerns here that this is going to
Speaker 1: be kind of just a weird, gross in division game,
Speaker 1: and I think it's unfortunate, and I think it might
Speaker 1: be a game that maybe you don't want to watch
Speaker 1: that much of. But in terms of investing, I think
Speaker 1: this is the way to do it. And you seem
Speaker 1: to agree.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I mean, I'm fading Jared Goff, who
Speaker 2: oblivion this week in fantasy. I'm like ten spots below
Speaker 2: ECR on Jared Goff. I'm telling everybody to say, Jared Goff, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I get through five touchdowns last week? You know who
Speaker 2: through five touchdowns a week before they played the Bears,
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold. You know what he didn't do the next
Speaker 2: time he played the Bears, didn't throw over five touchdowns again.
Speaker 2: So I'm not chasing last week's box or I'm looking
Speaker 2: at this matchup and traditionally Jared Goff when he goes
Speaker 2: outside in the cold, there's also about a little bit
Speaker 2: of precipitation now in the forecast in Chicago. I want
Speaker 2: no part of Jared Goff. And this number is just
Speaker 2: massive two hundred and fifty five and a half passing
Speaker 2: yards again on the road this season, so this includes
Speaker 2: just Dome road games as well. He's been fifty percent
Speaker 2: at this number. He already faced the Bears this year,
Speaker 2: and he was under this number when the one time
Speaker 2: he played outside this year, he was under one hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty passing yards. So why is his number at
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty five passing yards? I don't get it,
Speaker 2: and I know Garrett Goff is gonna rup it in
Speaker 2: my face probably, but I don't care. I think that
Speaker 2: this game is going to be gross. Like you said,
Speaker 2: the total is forty eight points. I just think it's
Speaker 2: out of control. I don't know why it's so high,
Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm going to bet against Jared Goff this
Speaker 2: week and the Fantasy Football Semifinals, taking me under on
Speaker 2: his passing yards and we'll see how it goes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I also think that I'm on raw after that
Speaker 1: huge week two people are gonna be running to bet
Speaker 1: him again, and I don't know. I would be looking
Speaker 1: more for the under on his too. Maybe we're wrong,
Speaker 1: Maybe Gough has really turned the corner on these things.
Speaker 1: But historically speaking, those numbers it's a really big data
Speaker 1: set that suggests that this could be a rougher day
Speaker 1: for the Lions. Do I think they're gonna lose to
Speaker 1: the Bears.
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 1: Do I think it's gonna be a gross game. It's
Speaker 1: very possible. I think it's definitely in the range of outcomes.
Speaker 1: As our friend Derek Brown likes to say, all right,
Speaker 1: let's get to the touchdowns. And of course, if you're
Speaker 1: looking for an edge when you're betting touchdowns, go to
Speaker 1: betting pros dot com slash touchdown. That's easy to remember,
Speaker 1: and check out the touchdown score a report. The report
Speaker 1: compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bets, odds, and projections
Speaker 1: to help identify the best anytime touch bets that you
Speaker 1: can make. So again betting pros dot com slash touchdown
Speaker 1: for the latest touchdown bet analysis. I'm going with B
Speaker 1: T J for one of my picks today plus one
Speaker 1: sixty five Mac Jones. Baby, Look, this is really more,
Speaker 1: you know against the Raiders than anything else. I think
Speaker 1: this is a good matchup here that mac Jones could
Speaker 1: be useful yet again, and last week, look, he's been
Speaker 1: showing you since he's taken over that he could find
Speaker 1: BTJ in these spots. Strangers banged up too, So I
Speaker 1: think BTJ is kind of the only hope right now.
Speaker 1: He's the Obi wan Kenobi of this offense. And then
Speaker 1: I've already picked the Tennessee Titans. I think at an upset,
Speaker 1: I think the Titans. I don't know why, I just
Speaker 1: got this weird feel and I was like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's just the Cole's just the colts man. The Colts
Speaker 1: find ways to lose games every single week, and Anthony
Speaker 1: Richardson's just all over the place. Titans play a little defense,
Speaker 1: and I think with Mason Rudolph back, there's two bets here.
Speaker 1: With wide receivers, you could take one of the two.
Speaker 1: Whatever floats your boat, you could take both of them
Speaker 1: because they're both plus one eighty NWY for life, Nick Westbrookkaine,
Speaker 1: who has been a little touchdown drought lately, he's due,
Speaker 1: and Calvin Ridley a plus one to eighty as well,
Speaker 1: So you could take one or both. But I think
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph is going to surprise some people and in
Speaker 1: some super flex leagues maybe garry some people to the finals,
Speaker 1: believe it or not, because people have been desperate for
Speaker 1: some quarterbacks. I can, You're gonna get fifteen points against
Speaker 1: the Colts. Yes, yes he can. So we'll see how
Speaker 1: that goes. Welsh, let's talk about your touchdown calls four
Speaker 1: week sixteen.
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna pair what I talked about with Brock Party.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna move over to George Kittle. Love the matchup,
Speaker 3: the best offensive advantage, and George Kittle is a touchdown
Speaker 3: magnet in general. Brock Prig really, I mean as much
Speaker 3: as like the deep option of what Juwan Jennings does,
Speaker 3: George Kittle almost at all times like the number one
Speaker 3: option for Rock Party. So I'm gonna go within anytime
Speaker 3: touchdown on George Kittle in that nice weather plus one
Speaker 3: fifty five and my deep play here three to one,
Speaker 3: give me Craig Reynolds, Craig Wrent without David Montgomery. Craig
Speaker 3: Reynolds comes in probably going to see a little bit
Speaker 3: of that. I don't think he's gonna just take in
Speaker 3: the David Montgomery touches that team let's taken to be
Speaker 3: silly Gooses are not going to do that. You're gonna
Speaker 3: just give more run to Jamiir Gibbs. But don't be
Speaker 3: surprised when Jamiir Gibbs gets them to the line and
Speaker 3: then in comes Craig Reynolds from the two playing that
Speaker 3: David Montgomery after Gibbs had the hole drive and everyone
Speaker 3: screams and complains about the vulturing. I'll take a three
Speaker 3: to one in that Bears matchup. You guys keep talking
Speaker 3: about as well, Bears garbage against the run. So that's
Speaker 3: the play if Jared GoF if the lines are gonna
Speaker 3: win the game, the total is so high, Jared God's
Speaker 3: gonna stink, a mon Rob Saint Brown's gonna stink. Someone
Speaker 3: has to be good. Jamiir Gibbs is clearly going to
Speaker 3: be good. You can also run against his team. Craig
Speaker 3: Renolds is going to get an opportunity. So three to
Speaker 3: one on his touchdown call. That's my favorite deeper play
Speaker 3: really like the Reynolds won a lot.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go real deep here because somebody's due
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson and you're the guy to break him out.
Speaker 1: I feel it, I feel it in my bones.
Speaker 2: Let's go, baby, they're wrong. Just early. Trey McBride going
Speaker 2: back to the well here. He's going to score a
Speaker 2: touchdown this week and I think he's gonna score touchdowns
Speaker 2: in bunches because the Carolina Panthers have allowed the most
Speaker 2: touchdowns to tight ends this season. This is so clearly
Speaker 2: on the Cardinals mind every time they talk about Train McBride,
Speaker 2: like man s guy's every touchdowns. Cal Murray talking about
Speaker 2: in an interview like yeah, we got to get eighty
Speaker 2: five in the end zone, like it has to happen,
Speaker 2: and what better defense do it than against the Carolina Panthers,
Speaker 2: who are the kings of allowing the regression to hit.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty two, Joe Mixon couldn't score touchdown play. The
Speaker 2: Panthers scored five five touchdowns at the end of the season,
Speaker 2: Mike Evans was terrible all year. Long plays the Panthers
Speaker 2: scores three touchdowns. This is the spot where guys blow
Speaker 2: up in regression hits going in all in on Trede McBride.
Speaker 2: I want first touchdown, I want two touchdowns, I want
Speaker 2: three touchdowns. I want it all So Trey McBride, I'm
Speaker 2: all in, and you'll know how my day is going around.
Speaker 3: It just became varuc assault. He's like, I want it.
Speaker 1: Fathera, I want to trade McBride touchdown now, Father, I
Speaker 1: want Father, I don't want one. I want the insual thing. Andrew,
Speaker 1: whatever you want there, we won't get it for you.
Speaker 1: Off sutly get it for you. Depressing is gonna be
Speaker 1: if he doesn't get a touchdown, by the.
Speaker 2: Way, and I'm gonna be very sad, and we'll.
Speaker 1: Give us another tight end just to have some more
Speaker 1: fun here.
Speaker 2: So I guess, I guess I'm pushing back on you
Speaker 2: because you like the Titan Again. I've I've kind of
Speaker 2: come full like one to eighty on the Titans. I
Speaker 2: think earlier in the week, I think on the live show,
Speaker 2: I talked about I like the Colts, and then I
Speaker 2: dove more into the matchup and I can't back Colts
Speaker 2: like like the I like the Titans too. I just know,
Speaker 2: I feel I know what to expect with Mason Rudolf. Again,
Speaker 2: It's Christmas season, Mason Rudolf. It's a great story. Yah
Speaker 2: YadA yadayah. So, but I wish to.
Speaker 1: Give every December to save the day.
Speaker 2: I'm going a different route with the receivers. I like
Speaker 2: chickakng wo as the anytime touchdown beds. So he's plus
Speaker 2: four hundred to score so you're getting a longer odds,
Speaker 2: and the receivers Tyler Boyd is hurt. Nick westburg Kini
Speaker 2: is also banged up, so I don't even know if
Speaker 2: those guys are going to play. And he had thirteen
Speaker 2: targets last week if you include all the penalties, he
Speaker 2: had eight from Mason Rudolph, so he's been on a
Speaker 2: heater last couple of weeks. The Colts have also been
Speaker 2: a team where I know they're favored, but they've actually
Speaker 2: given up a lot of first touchdowns to the opposing team.
Speaker 2: So you can get Chicka kon Kua pretty bonkers odds
Speaker 2: for first touchdown score if Mason Ruff looks to him
Speaker 2: and three starts Mason Rudolph. Because I remember this very
Speaker 2: vividly for betting on the Titans. They scored in the
Speaker 2: first quarter in all three of the games that he started.
Speaker 2: The scripted drive they have with Mason Rudolph works, and
Speaker 2: then they just don't score after that. So I think
Speaker 2: there's a lot of first touchdown opportunities with this Tennessee
Speaker 2: Titans offense, which is another reason why I can't back
Speaker 2: the Colts, and I like the Titans panship with the
Speaker 2: upset as well.
Speaker 1: I got a weird feeling and we're gonna see some
Speaker 1: oddities in week sixteen. It's just I don't know. I
Speaker 1: think yesterday kind of I feel like Thursday night football. Sometimes.
Speaker 1: Every now and then we'll set the tone for how
Speaker 1: the rest of the week is gonna go. Like, would
Speaker 1: it shocked me if the Giants somehow beat the Falcons now,
Speaker 1: it would have shocked me. If Tennessee Titans one, no,
Speaker 1: it shocked me. If the Caroline Panthers one no. None
Speaker 1: of those things would shock me at all this week.
Speaker 1: So buckle up, everybody, it's gonna be a fun ride
Speaker 1: week sixteen. Here things are not done at all. Have
Speaker 1: a great weekend, everybody watching the football. We'll be back again,
Speaker 1: of course next week for more action. Don't forget to
Speaker 1: subscribe to Betting Pros wherever you get your podcasts, and
Speaker 1: of course to the YouTube channel as well, and of
Speaker 1: course drop your comments below pixel you make it. What's
Speaker 1: your favorite prop of the week, We want to hear you.
Speaker 1: And don't forget to ring that bell for notification, so
Speaker 1: you know every time a piece of content drops here
Speaker 1: on the channel, that'll do it for us. But the
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for the Welsh and
Speaker 1: Andrew ericson I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,
Speaker 1: I want it now. Father.
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