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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from throwing out, we're sitting.

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Speaker 2: Up a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to Swayne.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible being bank small.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to.

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Speaker 5: And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast,

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Speaker 5: presented by bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. I'm your

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Speaker 5: host today, Brendan glas Sheen. This week Week eleven NFL

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Speaker 5: Best Bets. Joined this week by our two usual guests.

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Speaker 5: We have Brandon Anderson of Action Network, Luke swayin Vegas

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Speaker 5: Refund of Action Network, and our third chair today is

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Speaker 5: being held down by the Touchdown better himself, Touchdown Show

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Speaker 5: host Jill Gallant. We have the crew back together to

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Speaker 5: go through week eleven the slate, and we come up

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Speaker 5: with nine best bets, three from each of the guys.

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Speaker 5: You can find the video version of this podcast. You

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Speaker 5: may have done so already. If you have, please subscribe

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Speaker 5: to our Action Network YouTube page. If you've already done so,

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Speaker 5: like the video, we greatly appreciate it. Also, if you're listening,

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Speaker 5: which is where most of you probably are listening on

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Speaker 5: your wherever you get your podcast. Please hit a lead

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Speaker 5: It's helpful for us.

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Speaker 2: And again you can.

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Speaker 5: Find Jill Brandon Luke individually in the free award winning

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Speaker 5: Action Network app, not just the bets they give out today,

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Speaker 5: but other things they add throughout the course of the

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Speaker 5: week building up to each NFL Sunday. We went five

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Speaker 5: and four in week ten, another above five hundred week.

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Speaker 5: We're really chipping away here at this record, and if

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Speaker 5: you include Brandon Anderson's look ahead picks for two games

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Speaker 5: over five hundred, so we're working our way to being

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Speaker 5: profitable here on this Best Bets podcast. Going back to

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Speaker 5: week one, Brandon, let's start with you Week eleven, Best

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Speaker 5: Bet number one.

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Speaker 2: What do you have?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tough slate. This week we get a

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Speaker 3: really fun game Thursday night, we get a really fun game.

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Speaker 3: Monday night, we get a lot of weird long like

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Speaker 3: we've got. I think seven games at a touchdowner longer

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Speaker 3: on Sunday. I think five games around double digits are longer.

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Speaker 3: You're pinning on to where a couple of them end up.

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Speaker 3: So it's a hard slate to pick between. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: pick one of those long underdogs to start out. Give

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Speaker 3: me the New York Jets plus seven at the Bills. Like,

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Speaker 3: we watched this game the Monday night opener. We all

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Speaker 3: watched it with Ciron and Rodgers. A couple of plays

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Speaker 3: in the game go down. We saw the Jets win,

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Speaker 3: and everybody knows the Bills should have won that game, right,

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Speaker 3: we all saw it happen. The Bills were much better.

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Speaker 3: This is not that Bills team anymore. I just think

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Speaker 3: the Bills are broken right now. Right after that game,

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Speaker 3: the Bills were the right play. They were scoring forty

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Speaker 3: one points a game. The next three games after that

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Speaker 3: Jets loss, they responded. But since then six games twenty

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Speaker 3: point five points a game, the offense has fallen off.

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Speaker 3: I know we've we've fired Ken Dorsey this week. The

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Speaker 3: scoring has not been there, and I think that this

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Speaker 3: is a pretty tough time to turn over your play

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Speaker 3: calling duties from Dorsey to Joe Brady, who I like.

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Speaker 3: But you got to do that against this defense, this

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Speaker 3: Jets defense, with like a few days to install whatever

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Speaker 3: you're doing with the offense or whatever plays are gonna

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Speaker 3: be calling. I think it's a tough match of the

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Speaker 3: Jets defense really has become everything it was supposed to be,

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Speaker 3: the elite, elite pass defense, probably the best unit in

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Speaker 3: the NFL right now by DVOA. They're basically measuring up

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Speaker 3: even with the Browns the last like four to six

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Speaker 3: weeks as the top defense. So they've always been a

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Speaker 3: problem against Josh Allen. Last three games for Allen against

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Speaker 3: the Jets, he's averaging one hundred and ninety six yards

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Speaker 3: per game passing, so under two hundred, two touchdowns, six

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Speaker 3: interceptions in those games, all three one score games. That

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Speaker 3: gets us home here seven to the last ten Jets

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Speaker 3: Bills games to one score games. So I just think

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Speaker 3: the line is too high. Bill's defense is second to

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Speaker 3: worst in the NFL by DVA the last six weeks.

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Speaker 3: Past defense especially has been bad. Their leak against wide

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Speaker 3: receiver one. That's like the one thing the Jets have

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Speaker 3: right So I think Garrett Wilson can have a good game.

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Speaker 3: I think the Jets can hang enough on early downs

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Speaker 3: to at least give themself a chance offensively. Last six

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Speaker 3: games we talked about that stretch earlier. Buffalo in that

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Speaker 3: stretch is two and four. There are two wins. We're

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Speaker 3: by a one score over the Giants and by one

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Speaker 3: score over the Bucks. It's not a very good team. Honestly,

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Speaker 3: are we positive the Bills are even the better team here?

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Speaker 3: I'm not. I'm gonna take the Jets plus seven.

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Speaker 5: Okay, And as we know, Buffalo, not that it matters

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Speaker 5: all that much against Zach Wilson's pretty terrible regardless, but

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Speaker 5: the Bills are also really banged up, so maybe that's

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Speaker 5: a soft landing for Zach Wilson to look better. And

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Speaker 5: by the way, a lot of folks at Action have

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Speaker 5: been betting that first half under and that number keeps

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Speaker 5: coming down to so you're getting a touchdown with a

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Speaker 5: total of forty, getting the team that's an underdog with

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Speaker 5: the touchdown. That's always a good sign too for you.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Jets are just the jests of and

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen's kryptonite. And yeah, in all of the games

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Speaker 1: that they've been as krypto knit Josh Allen, this offense,

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Speaker 1: it's playing extremely well. Now it's scary to think what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen with them playing Probably.

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Speaker 2: The worst that they have in the last two years?

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Speaker 5: Is it fair to say, just from a narrative perspective,

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Speaker 5: just like like just if we're just having a we're

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Speaker 5: having a drink and we're all shooting the breeze. This

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Speaker 5: is the first time Josh Allen's really faced crisis, right,

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Speaker 5: Is that fair? Like crisis as a peak quarterback at

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Speaker 5: this point in his career?

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Speaker 3: Is that fair as a peak quarterback? I was gonna

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Speaker 3: say the crisis when he was like not an AFL

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Speaker 3: quarterback for two seasons, We'll call that a crisis.

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Speaker 5: That card game a few years ago against the Texans. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: he was running the round with his head chopped off.

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Speaker 5: I mean, like, knowing that he's top tier crisis.

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Speaker 1: It's making me crazy, honestly, because like I just you

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Speaker 1: see on Twitter and I see tweets about like he

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Speaker 1: he has elite in.

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Speaker 2: Every statistical category.

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Speaker 1: If the Bills out a winning record, Josh Allen would

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Speaker 1: be the favorite to win MVP. And like, honestly, if

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Speaker 1: you just watch these games, like like that pick before

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Speaker 1: the half on Monday was so.

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Speaker 2: Bad, Like I don't care about the stats.

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Speaker 1: I don't care about anything. Like it's just not working

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Speaker 1: right now. For him, and it's just one.

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Speaker 3: Of the funny notes about this game.

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Speaker 4: So obviously I bet interceptions a lot, and Josh Allen

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Speaker 4: leaves the NFL in interceptions, and right now both him

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Speaker 4: and Zach Wilson have the exact same odds to throw

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Speaker 4: an interception in this game at minus one sixty five.

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Speaker 3: So what does that tell you, Well, he's.

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Speaker 2: Amount of times.

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Speaker 3: I was gonna bring up the interceptions line too. I

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Speaker 3: look for that one because I wanted to bet it here,

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Speaker 3: and I was just like, oh man, that's that's pretty

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Speaker 3: insulting to take a guy that a week ago as

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Speaker 3: the MVP favorite and is now basically like sixty percent

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Speaker 3: to definitely have an interception, you pretty much have to

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Speaker 3: bet multiple interceptions here, which he probably will based on

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Speaker 3: his Jets history, but to get any value on it.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's a tough spot. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 3: play the money line here. I'm just gonna take the seven.

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Speaker 3: I do think that to me, the narrative you mentioned, Brennan,

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Speaker 3: I think the narrative is that this is ugly and gross,

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Speaker 3: but the Bills like pulled out and saved the season

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Speaker 3: at least for now. I think that's probably where this heads,

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Speaker 3: but we'll see. I'll take the seven.

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Speaker 5: Okay, we spent a little extra time there dumping on

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Speaker 5: the bills, so we'll have to move it along. Luke,

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Speaker 5: your first bet, please.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the Cardinals plus five at

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Speaker 1: the Texans, which this one really is Kyler like he

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Speaker 1: is so back, Like if you just watch that game,

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Speaker 1: he looked comfortable.

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Speaker 2: It's honestly incredible how quick he looked.

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Speaker 1: Like there were some plays he was just getting out

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Speaker 1: of pressure and like that's where he makes like his plays,

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Speaker 1: or he's not looking to run, he's kind of just

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Speaker 1: maneuvering around, which he looked fantastic. And then when he

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Speaker 1: started to run, you can kind of see that he

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Speaker 1: started to drag his leg. But Kyle looked amazing. James

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Speaker 1: Connor was back this team every single week, no matter.

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Speaker 2: How bad they've played. They are very motivated.

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Speaker 1: There's no tanking going on with this Cardinals team going

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Speaker 1: against the Texans defense that is bottom half in every

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Speaker 1: single category currently, like CJ. Stratt is playing out of

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Speaker 1: his mind. They have been an extremely explosive offense and

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Speaker 1: that offense is definitely going to get Theirs. But if

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Speaker 1: you look at the games that they've had the most

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Speaker 1: success in this season, it's against the Steelers, Bengals in Tampa,

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Speaker 1: which all three of those teams are the bottom three

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Speaker 1: teams and explosive plays allowed. And the games that they've

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Speaker 1: had like mediocre or subpar game offensive games are against

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Speaker 1: the raven Saints.

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Speaker 2: And I can't even read my handwriting.

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Speaker 1: There's a fourth team, but they put nine, thirteen, nineteen,

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Speaker 1: and twenty points up against those four teams that are

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Speaker 1: top thirteen and explosive plays allowed. So you can clearly

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Speaker 1: see the difference between the two. And Cardinals are the

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Speaker 1: eighth defense in terms of explosive plays allowed.

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Speaker 2: So if there is.

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Speaker 1: A trend between those two scenarios like it definitely favors

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals defense in this spot.

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Speaker 2: And let's not forget that this.

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Speaker 1: Texans team just lost to the Panthers.

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Speaker 2: They should have lost the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: They're still going to get theirs, but I don't trust

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Speaker 1: this defense.

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Speaker 2: Kyle looks totally back, probably better.

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Speaker 1: He looked better last week than he did anytime I

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Speaker 1: watched him last season. James Connor clearly is a huge

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Speaker 1: difference maker, maybe one of the most important running backs

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Speaker 1: to their team in the entire league. And then you

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Speaker 1: look at Kyler as an underdog, he's twenty one and eleven,

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Speaker 1: which is sixty six percent, and he's thirteen and five

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Speaker 1: on the road as an underdog. So Kyler as an

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Speaker 1: underdog is clearly like thrived. And this Texans team has

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Speaker 1: been more of a two and a half point favorite

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Speaker 1: this entire season yet. So this is a totally different

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Speaker 1: spot for them, laying five against the Cardinals team on

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Speaker 1: the road that it just lay like. It's just a

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Speaker 1: new spot that they're continuing to be America's public darling.

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Speaker 1: They burned me last week against the Bengals, but hopefully

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Speaker 1: we can get home with the plus five here.

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Speaker 2: I just can't catch to this number. All right?

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Speaker 5: Very good? Yeah, Kyler loved throw it at the tight

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Speaker 5: end Trey McBride. He looked good. And it's clear that

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Speaker 5: they held Kyler out those extra few weeks to really

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Speaker 5: get him right. I'm wondering if that had something to

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Speaker 5: do with their win and lost record because of where

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Speaker 5: their draft pick is right now. But of course he

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Speaker 5: comes back last week and they win. Jill, your first

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Speaker 5: pick has a connection to this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So this one's tough.

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Speaker 4: Because I feel like I don't want to disagree with

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Speaker 4: Luke here on how Kyler looked, because again it's all

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Speaker 4: about subjective Like if he thinks he looked good, I

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Speaker 4: believe Luke. But for me, the statistics did not add

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Speaker 4: up to seeing Kyler Murray looking as good as I

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Speaker 4: thought he was. So that's why I'm going to take

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Speaker 4: an interception in this game for Kyler to throw a

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Speaker 4: pick at minus one fifteen. Now here's why I'm just

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Speaker 4: in a little bit of a disagreement with Luke because

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Speaker 4: he did have obviously some spectacular runs like that run

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Speaker 4: last week on third down to extend the play that

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Speaker 4: was amazing, but he was also only fifty two percent

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Speaker 4: passing on almost thirty pass attempts. He was two for

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Speaker 4: nine on third down throwing the ball, and this Falcons

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Speaker 4: defense isn't that good, and part of it could be Russ,

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Speaker 4: but really the reason is is because there's just a

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Speaker 4: lot of lack of talent on the Cardinals. Like, look,

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Speaker 4: I'm not going to say that Trey McBride didn't look good,

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Speaker 4: but let's not pretend like he's a top ten tight

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Speaker 4: end in the NFL. Same thing with Hollywood Brown Rondelle Moore.

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Speaker 4: They're not really going to win a ton of one

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Speaker 4: on one matchups. And the other thing about interceptions here,

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Speaker 4: especially with Kyler, is I feel like we kind of

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Speaker 4: like got zapped by like the men in Black here,

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Speaker 4: like where I just forgetting what he's done in his career.

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Speaker 4: But he had seven picks and ten games last year.

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Speaker 4: Historically in his career, he has thrown forty two interceptions

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Speaker 4: in fifty eight games. That's seventy two percent of every

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Speaker 4: game he has played. And you could say, well, Juli're

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Speaker 4: just cheery pick, and it's like, Okay, let's look at

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Speaker 4: all the splits. Let's exclude his rookie year. It's still

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Speaker 4: seventy percent. If you go through the Kingsbury era, it's

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Speaker 4: still at seventy one percent. So again, like it's not

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Speaker 4: like I'm just looking at oh, look at this specific

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Speaker 4: slant or this specific split. It's in his entire career.

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Speaker 4: So the reason why we're getting minus one fifteen is

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Speaker 4: because they won that game. Had the Cardinals lost, its

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Speaker 4: probably closer to minus one thirty minus one forty. I

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Speaker 4: think this Texans defense getting a little bit more improved now.

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Speaker 4: Derek Stingley was back last week. That's why they did

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Speaker 4: have two picks last week on Joe Burrow. So this

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Speaker 4: isn't me disagreeing with Luke saying they can't cover the five.

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Speaker 4: This is me just saying that I think Kyler Murray

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Speaker 4: still maybe isn't all the way back, and with that

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Speaker 4: talent around him, I think he's more prone to throw

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Speaker 4: an interception than not. So I'm going to take him

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Speaker 4: to throw a pick at minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: When I and when I say he's like back, I

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Speaker 1: met like confident ac. I was expecting to see like

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Speaker 1: a knee brace on his knee. Didn't have a knee brace,

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Speaker 1: and just not the explosive Kyler we were used to.

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Speaker 1: I was not expecting last week, and honestly, we got

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Speaker 1: way more in terms of really with his legs than

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Speaker 1: I ever expected eleven.

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Speaker 4: I wasn't expecting it to either Luke though, because even

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Speaker 4: last week they had his anytime touchdown on as plus

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Speaker 4: two forty and last year before the injury, his range

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Speaker 4: was around plus one fifty to plus one seventy five,

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Speaker 4: So I think even sports books weren't sure if he

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Speaker 4: was gonna be all the way back, And then of

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Speaker 4: course he scores a rushing touchdown, You're not gonna see

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Speaker 4: his odds about plus two hundred likely the rest of

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Speaker 4: the year, right right.

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Speaker 5: And the Texans are getting healthier both fronts of offensively

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Speaker 5: on the line and also in their defensive front, so

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Speaker 5: that could set up well for you too. All right, Brandon,

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Speaker 5: what do you got? You're gonna go to the prop

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Speaker 5: market for your second one?

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Speaker 3: I am. I almost went with a side on this one.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna go to the Raiders and Dolphins game and

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Speaker 3: I try to talk myself into the Raiders. I think

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Speaker 3: this line is way too long on their side. But

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna play the reason I think the line is

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Speaker 3: too long, and that's Josh Jacobs. So give me Josh

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Speaker 3: Jacobs over sixty one and a half rushing yards. Look,

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Speaker 3: life is great for the Raiders right now. Antonio Peers

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Speaker 3: is there. They're two and zero. They're smoking stogies in

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Speaker 3: the locker room, like life is great when you face

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Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson. So this is not that

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Speaker 3: they gotta face their offense now, but a thing that

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Speaker 3: I've noticed during those games and kind of what I expected.

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Speaker 3: Antonio Pierce, tough guy, linebacker. What are you gonna do?

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Speaker 3: Play defense and run the football. So Josh Jacobs the

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Speaker 3: last two weeks in the debut for Pierce, twenty six

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Speaker 3: carries ninety eight yards and two scores. Last week twenty

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Speaker 3: seven carries one hundred and sixteen yards. He's not really

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Speaker 3: been more efficient. That's still basically four yards of carry,

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Speaker 3: but he's had the two highest carry total of the season.

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Speaker 3: He's leading the league right now I think by like

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Speaker 3: twenty six or twenty seven carries. So this is last

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Speaker 3: year's rushing leader. The offensive line has been pretty good.

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Speaker 3: They've continued out perform expectations. And the Dolphins, even though

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Speaker 3: I do think their defense is actually playing better. That's

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Speaker 3: mostly the pass defense, that's Jalen Ramsey, it's the secondary.

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Speaker 3: The run defense can still be got. Basically there's seventh

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Speaker 3: worst in run DVA Defensively this season, six running backs

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Speaker 3: against Miami have had at least fifth carries, and Jacobs

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Speaker 3: for sure will get at least fifteen carries. Five of

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Speaker 3: those six went over this rushing line, So I think

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Speaker 3: that's the formula for the Raiders. You've got a rookie

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Speaker 3: quarterback on the road against this high powered offense. What

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Speaker 3: are you gonna do? Protect your quarterback, run the ball,

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Speaker 3: chew up the clock, try to keep the offense off

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Speaker 3: the field. Pretty standard formula. So I like Jacobs. I'm

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Speaker 3: not gonna do escalator on this one here. I think

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Speaker 3: just taking the traditional over is right to me. I

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Speaker 3: think this line should be more like in the seventies,

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Speaker 3: even high seventies. I've been talking on my power rankings column.

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Speaker 3: I think there's value on Jacobs to lead the league

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Speaker 3: in rushing again. Also, I got that at twenty eight

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Speaker 3: to one last week. I think it's still twelve to

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Speaker 3: one at books out there. He's three yards off of

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Speaker 3: second place right now, and he's getting this huge workload

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Speaker 3: under Piers. So I'm gonna play at this game, but

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Speaker 3: I think you can play it for the season to

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Speaker 3: Jacob's over sixty one and a half yards.

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Speaker 5: So I realized only had two catches in the Jets game.

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Speaker 5: But could I ask you why you might not be

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Speaker 5: looking at rushing and receiving because of the possible game

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Speaker 5: script of the Raiders trailing. I mean, you're Brandon, let's

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Speaker 5: be honest, You're hoping this game is stays one score,

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Speaker 5: game tight for the first half minimum to keep the

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Speaker 5: ground game formidable for the Raiders.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good question. I would hope that, of course,

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Speaker 3: And like I said that, that's kind of part of

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Speaker 3: the angle is that I do think that the Lion

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Speaker 3: stays close. I honestly would make this like closer to seven,

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Speaker 3: and it's almost two touchdowns now, like it just keeps

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Speaker 3: going up, which to me that tells me I just

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Speaker 3: must be missing something I'm evaluating wrong, like I shouldn't

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Speaker 3: be off by a touchdown. So that's why I'm not

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Speaker 3: on the Raiders here. But I honestly just think that

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Speaker 3: the Raiders are going to run the ball either way.

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Speaker 3: I hope it stays close, but I think that it's

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Speaker 3: eight and account along the road against a tough secondary,

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Speaker 3: like you don't have to get out a jail free card.

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Speaker 3: You only really can just keep trying to run the ball.

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Speaker 3: They didn't have a lot of other options. Obviously you

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Speaker 3: got DeVante Adams. But I just think the part of

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Speaker 3: the reason here while I'm stingying with the rushing is

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Speaker 3: I think they feed Jacobs. So I hopefully it stays

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Speaker 3: close that's for the better. But even if they're down,

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Speaker 3: I don't know if they really have too many other options,

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Speaker 3: but just keep running the ball.

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Speaker 5: Okay, all right, Luke, you have another side for a

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Speaker 5: second one, please?

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Speaker 1: Yes, I'm gonna go with the Rams, which currently are

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Speaker 1: plus one hosting the Seahawks, which this is definitely a

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Speaker 1: tough week and there's a lot of double digit spreads,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of higher like like as Brandon said,

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Speaker 1: touchdown or more, and in a week that's tough like

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Speaker 1: this Rams plus one, I wish I was getting a

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Speaker 1: better price, honestly, But at the same time, like this

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Speaker 1: Seahawks team, I just can't trust anymore.

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Speaker 3: I've bet on them.

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Speaker 1: I've gotten burned on by them multiple times this year

378
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Speaker 1: and games that they shouldn't have covered that they covered

379
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Speaker 1: them last week, that fourth down touchdown that the Commanders

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Speaker 1: had was just truly painful, which.

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Speaker 5: Sean Corner yesterday on one of our shows, Happy Hour,

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Speaker 5: a Wednesday night show on our YouTube page, Sean Kerner

383
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Speaker 5: gave out Seahawks under nine and a half wins at

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Speaker 5: plus money last night shows. He's down on them too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So the Seahawks team, I'm kind of just off

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Speaker 1: of right now, and you really just I can't trust

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Speaker 1: them going against a Rams team who has been fighting

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Speaker 1: the injury bug and is coming off of their bye

389
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Speaker 1: week that should be healthier. And really the key to

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Speaker 1: this whole thing is really checking the Stafford practice reports

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Speaker 1: and seeing if he was a full participant in the practice,

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Speaker 1: which yesterday he was, which I'm going to assume he

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Speaker 1: is today and tomorrow. We're going to get a healthy

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Speaker 1: Stafford on Sunday. So it is a thumb injury, and

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Speaker 1: those things can happen any play and reaggravate it, which

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Speaker 1: is probably the concern. But if you saw Week one Stafford,

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Speaker 1: probably against the Seahawks team in Seattle, Stafford looked like

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Speaker 1: Stafford on the lines. He was slinging around, and that

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Speaker 1: without Cooper Cup who he has now, and Stafford just

400
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Speaker 1: dices the zone, and the Seahawks play at a very

401
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Speaker 1: high zone rate. So I don't see much that is

402
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Speaker 1: going to stop this Rams offense going against the Seahawks

403
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,880
Speaker 1: team that I just can't trust. The Rams play zone

404
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 1: a lot, which is what Gino likes. But again, Geno,

405
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Speaker 1: to me feels like he's starting to come back down

406
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Speaker 1: to earth and be the quarterback that we thought he

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Speaker 1: was the entire time. So I'll just take this Rams

408
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Speaker 1: team at plus one. I wouldn't lay plus one pick

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Speaker 1: on money line whatever it is, so Rams at home.

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Speaker 5: Okay, we're recording on a Thursday afternoon, so of course

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Speaker 5: you're not going to hear any picks for Baltimore and Cincinnati.

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Speaker 5: But really, the game of the weekend is Monday night,

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Speaker 5: Kansas City hosting Philadelphia Super Bowl rematch, and we do

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Speaker 5: have a couple of plays featured in that game. Jill, Jill,

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Speaker 5: I need to, Jill, when you give it this analysis,

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Speaker 5: because it seems kind of obvious. You need to tell

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Speaker 5: me what you gotta give me the scenario as to

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Speaker 5: why this won't happen. What is it?

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Speaker 4: Okay, Well, the bet is Jalen hurts for an any

420
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Speaker 4: time touchdown, and why it won't happen is he gets hurt.

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Speaker 4: Because if he doesn't get hurt, if they get within

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Speaker 4: the five yard line, it's almost likely very like to happen.

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Speaker 4: Rather because he leads the most unstoppable play in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: So for context, this is around plus one thirty five.

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Speaker 4: Why I bring that up is because he hasn't been

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Speaker 4: above plus one oh five all season. And for reference

427
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Speaker 4: as well, these two teams they played in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: He had minus one ten odds to score in that game. Well,

429
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Speaker 4: he rushed for three touchdowns. So and that's the thing

430
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Speaker 4: about this offense is that once they get within the

431
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Speaker 4: five yard line, they're pretty predictable because they are so

432
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Speaker 4: efficient at what they do. He's got seven touchdowns this year,

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Speaker 4: seventh in the NFL in red zone carries. All of

434
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Speaker 4: his touchdowns have been scored inside the five yard line.

435
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 4: And this Chiefs defense, I think this is the reason

436
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 4: why we're getting a little bit of a premium yere

437
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 4: is because this Chiefs defense has been pretty good against

438
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 4: the run. But over the last four games, teams are

439
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 4: averaging around one hundred and twenty rushing yards per game.

440
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 4: The Broncos ran all over them two touchdown scorers on

441
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 4: the ground, and this running attack in the NFL from

442
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 4: the Eagles, They're going to likely do everything they can

443
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 4: to keep Mahomes off the field. And I mean, after

444
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:00,679
Speaker 4: what happened in the Super Bowl, they're going to be

445
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 4: foaming at the mouth to be able to just take on.

446
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 4: Like I don't want to, I don't get too much

447
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 4: into this revenge game narrative, but this game does mean

448
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 4: something for the Eagles in this spot to be able

449
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 4: to prove, you know, that they're not this fraudulent NFC

450
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 4: team because of the way that they've won games. So again,

451
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts, They're going to make a statement in this game.

452
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna one hundred percent say that the Eagles

453
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,640
Speaker 4: will win, but I definitely feel that Jalen Hurts anytime

454
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 4: touchdown should be minus ods. So we're getting it at

455
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 4: plus one thirty five, So I think you need.

456
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: To grab it.

457
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 3: Okay.

458
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,160
Speaker 5: I stole that from bj Cunningham because we were doing

459
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 5: the Baseball podcast and during the World Series, and he

460
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 5: would say, Brandon, let me tell you how this won't hit,

461
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 5: and he would basically have like one sentence and be like,

462
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 5: and you, you just nailed it unless he gets hurt

463
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 5: or something absurd happens. So that's why I put it

464
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 5: to you like that, because I just don't the way

465
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 5: you explained it. It just doesn't make any sense to me.

466
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 5: While you're getting a really good price. So yeah, go

467
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,639
Speaker 5: grab it now if you can. Brandon. Also related to

468
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,360
Speaker 5: this game, you have an angle for Chiefs Eagles.

469
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 3: I do, and I came on the pod last week. Joe,

470
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 3: you weren't on, but I I came on with my

471
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 3: first anytime touchdown bet, Austin Ekeler. You helped me with

472
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 3: the odds we hit it. I was four for four

473
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 3: in touchdown bets in the article week. So I'm a

474
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 3: touchdown guy now too, Travis kelce anytime touchdown minus one

475
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: point fifteen in that huge Monday night game. So it's

476
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 3: just a great game. It's like it's like the you know,

477
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 3: the amuse boosh before Thanksgiving week. We got this on

478
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 3: Monday Night. It's it's perfect to lead into this awesome

479
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 3: week of sports. See how to have something here? I

480
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 3: think to me in this game, Jill, I think I

481
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 3: like your pick. I think the Chiefs run defense is

482
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 3: the week spot, but with the Eagles it's the pass defense.

483
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 3: Run defense has been great for Philly. They're second in

484
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 3: the league DVAA, but they're bottom ten against the pass.

485
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 3: They are dead last by DVA against tight ends. Well,

486
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 3: cas who's a pretty good tight end. Yeah, Travis Kelcey.

487
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 3: This is kind of by design for the Eagles, right.

488
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 3: They didn't really go out and bring in linebackers and safeties.

489
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 3: They cheaped out in that area. They did that on purpose.

490
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 3: They want pass rushers, they want the line, they want secondary.

491
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 3: They didn't really do the middle of the field. That's analytics.

492
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 3: It's not gonna work great against Travis Kelcey. Is the

493
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 3: price you pay here. So fantasy wise, their bottom five

494
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 3: against tight ends. Hunter Henry has a touchdown against them, TJ. Hockinson, Logan, Thomas,

495
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 3: Jake Ferguson. Those guys all score touchdowns and Travis Kelsey

496
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 3: is like ten times the player of them. So I

497
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 3: think two one thing I like about both these touchdown bets.

498
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 3: These are guys that have not been healthy Hurts or Kelsey,

499
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 3: and now they're off the bye week. So I think

500
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 3: for Travis Kelcey, this is the healthiest he's been all season.

501
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 3: He's out partying in Argentina. Now he's ready to come back.

502
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 3: We were ready, ready to go. He had in the

503
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: Super Bowl a touchdown plus six catches eighty one yards,

504
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 3: and I think with the nature of this game, I

505
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 3: have the Chiefs tweet this like a playoff game, and

506
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 3: in a playoff games, Travis Kelcey shows up with huge numbers.

507
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 3: He's had fourteen games in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes,

508
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 3: fifteen touchdowns and fourteen games. He's found the end zone

509
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 3: at least once in eleven out of the fourteen game

510
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 3: seventy nine percent. So I think you tweet this game

511
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 3: like that and and the real analysis you want here.

512
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,120
Speaker 3: You know, Taylor Swift is gonna be at the game,

513
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: her Eagles, her chief It's the Kelsey Bowl. We had

514
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 3: that whole thing of the Super Bowl. Supposedly some TMZ

515
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 3: reporting for you. Taylor's parents are going to be there,

516
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 3: so the Swifts and the Kelsey's are meeting for the

517
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 3: first time. Come on, he's not gonna find the end

518
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 3: zone of that game. Karma is the guy, and the

519
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: Chiefs scoring touchdowns for me. Travis Kelcey minus one fifteen.

520
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: I absolutely love Taylor Swift and Kelsey like I'm one

521
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 1: of the suckers.

522
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 2: That is just like all about the ideots.

523
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 5: No, sorry, when you said like the dancers, she said that.

524
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 5: Frend Anderson said that on the podcast.

525
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 4: Wow, I was gonna bring up a point about Brandon's

526
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 4: pick here because you mentioned about how Kelsey, if they're

527
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 4: going to treat this like a playoff game, how efficient

528
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 4: ca Elsey has been in the playoffs. Well, if you

529
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 4: go through those same game logs. This is part of

530
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 4: the reason why I took this. Last year in the

531
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, I took Travis Kelcey for the first touchdown,

532
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 4: it was around plus three to fifty, but first team touchdown,

533
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 4: and you can get it around plus three hundred plus

534
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 4: three fifty. It's probably going to be in that range

535
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 4: again this game. And if you go back and look

536
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 4: through all those playoff game logs since twenty twenty one,

537
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 4: guess who scored the first Chiefs touchdown in almost all

538
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 4: of them.

539
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 5: Kelsey.

540
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 4: So just looking if you're looking to find a little

541
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 4: bit more of a spicy angle to that instead of

542
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 4: taking minus one fifteen, but again minus one fifteen pretty

543
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 4: solid odds for Kelsey in this matchup.

544
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, well we'll take the minus one to fifteen and

545
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 3: get get on the wins here for our pod. But

546
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 3: I don't mind the first touchdown. But I know you

547
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 3: hit that one. That's been a good angle on the playoffs.

548
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 3: So that's a good one to spice up the odds

549
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 3: a little bit.

550
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: Three like an escalator safe hard just taking to score

551
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: any time touchdown first half for those odds.

552
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 4: Yep, you could do that too.

553
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 3: Yep.

554
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 5: Plus one seventy five I'm seeing and first team touchdown

555
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 5: scorer in that plus two hundred range plus two to

556
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 5: twenty range. Excuse me?

557
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 3: Wow, okay, premium, all right.

558
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 5: I just got blindsided by this Taylor Swift thing that

559
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 5: I forgot. Who's next? Luke, You're next? I think Luke

560
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 5: has a side for us. We're moving off of this game,

561
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,400
Speaker 5: We're backtracking a bit. What do you got?

562
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go it's it's pretty gross, but I'm gonna

563
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: go with the Browns currently, I would say money line,

564
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: which is probably minus one fifteen. Really, this is just

565
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 1: one that like this Steelers team, like, there's just nothing

566
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,239
Speaker 1: about them other than their record of being six and

567
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 1: three that is good. They've been out gained in every

568
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: single game this season, and they just continue to make

569
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: get lucky interceptions or fumbles or whatever it is at

570
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: the end of games that they somehow cover every time

571
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: and or pick them off off of tips or just

572
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 1: getting extremely lucky and winning games. And yes, DeShawn is out,

573
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: which is why we're honestly betting hit or else I

574
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: wouldn't be laying the Browns that I think they were

575
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: like minus three and a half with DeShawn, but with

576
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,919
Speaker 1: him out, the line came down just too much for me.

577
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: And then a Browns defense that is probably is like

578
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: at least they're the best. They're just smothering teams in

579
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 1: a divisional game. That we've said in this podcast multiple times,

580
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: just take the underdog every single time and you're probably

581
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: gonna come out ahead with this division this Browns team,

582
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: if they get to an underdog, great, I think it's

583
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: worth waiting. But DTR definitely better than PJ.

584
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 2: Walker. But when they did at PJ.

585
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 1: Walker, like they were keeping every single game close with

586
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 1: this defense, and there's nothing about the Steelers offense that

587
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: scares me that they can win at margin or even

588
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 1: win in the one game DTR did play, it was awful,

589
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: but he totally just got thrown into the fire against

590
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: the Ravens defense that is elite or Deshaun. I think

591
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: it was like the Saturday Deshaun got ruled out and

592
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, a rookie quarterback was playing off

593
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 1: of twenty four hours notice, so they drafted him for

594
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: a reason. He looks pretty good in preseason. I think

595
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 1: DTR is definitely an upgrade over PJ.

596
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 2: Walker.

597
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: Just getting a Browns team that is better than the

598
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 1: Steelers team. Basically money line plus one whenever it is,

599
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 1: it's just an easy bet. Taking a backup quarterback that

600
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 1: we talked about usually creates a value on the team

601
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 1: that he's playing for in this first start.

602
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 5: Okay, very good. Is there a way where so seeing

603
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 5: one and a half out there, is it better to

604
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 5: get this now or wait? Do you or do you

605
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 5: anticipate Brown's money to come in?

606
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: I would say this is probably where it's going to be. Okay,

607
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: I would it's probably maybe weight.

608
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 2: I would say, I.

609
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: Don't think it's gonna go out much. If anything, I

610
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: don't think weight is gonna hurt you. If you want

611
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: to get like the plus ones and then tease those,

612
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 1: if you're teasing the Browns, it would be worth waiting

613
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 1: for the plus one.

614
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: Great.

615
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: Okay, By the way, this game was my hot red

616
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 3: and my look ahead, So I'm just not on it anymore.

617
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 3: I'm in already. We got our bets already, But somehow,

618
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 3: by the luck of the Steelers, apparently I'm holding on

619
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 3: a plus four and a half from from the look

620
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 3: ahead last week on the Steelers. So thank you to

621
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson for getting out of here on that we

622
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 3: had a plus one eighty on the money line, and

623
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 3: then on Sunday night we grabbed the hot read. I

624
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 3: took the under thirty eight and a half. The total

625
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 3: is like thirty two and a half at some books

626
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 3: right now, like it is. I don't know. I gotta

627
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 3: check bat labs. I don't know if that's the lowest

628
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 3: total that we've had since like a decade or something.

629
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 3: It's just so well. So, yeah, I had.

630
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 5: The Arctic We had the Arctic blast week last year

631
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 5: right before Christmas.

632
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 3: Yeah. True. So I'm just gonna just ride the CLV.

633
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: I you could try to middle here, just in case

634
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 3: you're wondering on the hot reads and look ahead. I

635
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 3: don't want to get too cute on it. We're in

636
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: a great spot with CLV. We did not earn it,

637
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: we locked into it. Sometimes we're gonna go the other way.

638
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 3: We'll get the injury on the wrong side. So I'll

639
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 3: sit on the Steelers in the under, and I'm happy

640
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: with the side. But I think with where the line's

641
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 3: at now, I don't mind the lookpeck either here. So

642
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 3: just want to comment on folks looking at the look

643
00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 3: ahead of hot read spots.

644
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 5: Jill we can't get enough of this game, and that's

645
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 5: why you want to bet a touchdown in this one.

646
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 5: A touchdown score.

647
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

648
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 4: So that Brown's Saints game, that Arcticle you were talking about,

649
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 4: that closed at thirty two and a half as well,

650
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 4: So right now we're gunning for the top spot here.

651
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 4: But yeah, the total in this game continues to drop,

652
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 4: so you would think, don't bet touchdown scores in this game,

653
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 4: and I'm actually going the other way. I'm going to

654
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 4: bet a touchdown score in this game, and I'm betting

655
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 4: Kareem Hunt to score another touchdown at plus two seventy five. Okay, So,

656
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 4: Dory Thompson Robinson, I'm glad Luke brought that up about

657
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 4: the late change because we look at that game and

658
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 4: you think, okay, well he's just a trash quarterback. It's like, okay,

659
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 4: you had ten hours to decide if you're going to

660
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 4: start him, so it probably wasn't going to work out.

661
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 4: But these low totals again, being at thirty three points

662
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 4: are thirty two and a half, doesn't really matter when

663
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 4: it comes to Hunt six touchdowns in the last five games,

664
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: and Deshaun Watson, he only played him one of those

665
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 4: so you can't really just say, well, the quarterback is

666
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,959
Speaker 4: the reason why we're at this spot, because PJ. Walker

667
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 4: DTR doesn't really matter if it's Watson. And one of

668
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 4: the things that's important about that about him scoring in

669
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 4: that stretch is each one of these games had totals

670
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: less than forty, So you could be scared off from

671
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 4: the touchdown if you want, but they're happening, especially against

672
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 4: some pretty strong defense. It's like last like the Ravens

673
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 4: are top ten in DVOWA versus running backs. Kareem Hunt

674
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 4: was right out there during the red zone trips and

675
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 4: that's why I love Hunts, because they use him in

676
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 4: those trench spots. They let Jerome Ford run between the twenties.

677
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 4: Once they get to the red zone, it's Hunt time

678
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 4: because he's got fourteen red zone carries since coming back

679
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 4: to the Browns and twelve in that last five game stretch.

680
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 4: Just to put that in perspective, Jerome Ford and Pierre

681
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 4: Strong they have nine combined red zone touches in two

682
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 4: extra games this year. So it's Kareem Hunt show when

683
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 4: they get into the red zone. I know the points

684
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 4: are gonna be hard to come by, but I trust

685
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 4: the Browns to do what the Browns do, and they

686
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 4: lead the NFL and rush attempts per game when they

687
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,959
Speaker 4: get into the red zone. They're not gonna let dtr

688
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 4: throw that ball. It's going to be Kareem Hunt going

689
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 4: for it. And if you're gonna give it to me

690
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 4: at plus two seventy five, give it to me all day.

691
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 5: All right, good deal. Not for that gross game and

692
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 5: enjoy it.

693
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

694
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 5: So, like you said, this goes back to last year's

695
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 5: a Arctic Blast game. He said it was Denver in

696
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 5: New Orleans. Is that you said?

697
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 4: Saints and Browns?

698
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 5: Saints and Browns. Oh, and the Browns are featured. Okay,

699
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 5: very good. The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM.

700
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 5: Used bonus code Action when signing up to get up

701
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 5: to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if

702
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 5: your first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

703
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

704
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 5: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

705
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 5: Gambling problem Call one eight hundred gambler. Before we go,

706
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 5: we need Brandon Anderson's look Ahead, as he noted he

707
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 5: is on Pittsburgh in this game. From last week's look

708
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 5: ahead at plus four and a half, you took the

709
00:32:56,080 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 5: total under as your hot Red Monday. So what I'm

710
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 5: excited about is your look ahead is going to feature

711
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 5: a Thanksgiving game. What do you got?

712
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 3: You gotta do a Thanksgiving game? Look, I'll probably just

713
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 3: be back on this one on the podcast for Best

714
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: Bets next week. Also because I love some of these

715
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving trends. First game of the day Thanksgiving, We're all

716
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 3: ready for some football. Give me the Lions Lions minus

717
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 3: seven and a half home on Thanksgiving against the Packers.

718
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 3: Guess what the last time was that the Lions were

719
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 3: favored by seven and a half or more. I don't know,

720
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 3: because it's not in our system. It's goes so far back,

721
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 3: like the Lions are never this good, They're never this

722
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 3: huge of a favorite against the Packers. Of public is

723
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 3: gonna be all over this one, betting on the good,

724
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 3: the good Lions team we finally have after all these years.

725
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 3: The Lions are better. They're just better. They're top ten running, passing, offense, defense, everything,

726
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: bet dv Away. Packers are bottom ten at three of

727
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 3: those four things. The Packers lost to the Lions in

728
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 3: Lambeau in September by fourteen points. I was on the

729
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 3: wrong side of that one. I'll be on the right

730
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 3: side of this one. The lines are just the way

731
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 3: better team. Five of their seven wins are by twelve

732
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 3: or more points. They're a great first half team where

733
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 3: the Packers aren't scoring. So I think this is you know,

734
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: we love our Thanksgiving football, but I think this ends

735
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 3: up shaping up a lot like some of the Cowboys

736
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,439
Speaker 3: games we often watch, where it's like, all right, thanks

737
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 3: for the easy match. We got a big early lead.

738
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 3: We like someone will be the Ezekiel Elliott, like eating

739
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 3: a turkey leg in the Salvation Army. Bakay, Like that's

740
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 3: the Lions game here. So we'll do the Thanksgiving trends again.

741
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 3: I'm sure next week you're gonna hear a lot of these,

742
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 3: but just a few notes here. Lions have covered eight

743
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 3: of their last eleven Thanksgiving games, and they are four

744
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 3: to no perfect against the spread as favorites in our system,

745
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 3: which covers the last two decades of Thanksgiving games and

746
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving favorites. This is the way to go. You want

747
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 3: the big favorites, and you want the public teams on

748
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving favorites of seven or more seventeen and six against

749
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 3: the spread seventy four percent on Thanksgiving. And I said,

750
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 3: seeing about Dallas a bit ago, but if you just

751
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 3: exclude Dallas, non Dallas favorites on Thanksgiving, twenty nine to

752
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 3: nine ats seventy six percent. So we want the Lions here.

753
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if money comes in and this

754
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 3: pushes more towards like double digits, especially after it's some

755
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 3: positive results this weekend. So give me the Lions seven

756
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 3: and a half. And I think this one rises and

757
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 3: we you know, cash early, but before even I don't

758
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 3: know what time you all eat dinner, but dinner will

759
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:28,879
Speaker 3: not even be on the table by the time we're

760
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 3: already count our money on Thanksgiving. On this one for me?

761
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 5: Could I say to you, though, like the Packers get

762
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 5: the Chargers this week is there? This is kind of

763
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 5: it for Jordan Love because then, like you said, they

764
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 5: get the Lions Thanksgiving, then they play the chiefs. If

765
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 5: Jordan Love is going to prove any sort of warth

766
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 5: to this Packers organization beyond next year. Even if they

767
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 5: don't win the game against the Chargers. What kind of

768
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 5: game script or what kind of result are you expecting

769
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,240
Speaker 5: in Packers Chargers.

770
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's always part of it with these

771
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 3: look aheads. The Lions are home against the Bears. I

772
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 3: believe they're playing the Bear. I think it's in Detroit,

773
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 3: so that certainly should shape up well for them. I

774
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 3: don't love the Packers against the Chargers. It's a it's

775
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 3: a tough line to bet just because the Chargers. So

776
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 3: whoever knows what's happening with them, So I think, you know, like,

777
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 3: I don't know, I'll be in on a side on

778
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 3: that one. But I'm not exactly expecting Love to suddenly

779
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 3: like look like he's been the franchise answer. So I

780
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 3: don't know. I haven't been that impressed with him. He

781
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 3: just he's not accurate. He never has been any level.

782
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 3: He's throwing interceptions, he's putting balls up for grabs early

783
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 3: in the season. I talk myself into it, Matt Leafleur

784
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 3: is giving him a lot of chances to just like

785
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 3: yolo it down the field and get some like high

786
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,959
Speaker 3: EPA plays that did hit, So I think that's there,

787
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 3: like that's the arm talent, but his decision making is

788
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 3: reading the field, and his accuracy just hasn't really been impressive.

789
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 3: So this to me, we we accidentally, like Lyon's Packers

790
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving. For years, you'd have been like, oh, easy,

791
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 3: take the Packers, and suddenly it's like we flipped roles.

792
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 3: It's freaky Friday on things Giving. It's like one of

793
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 3: these teams just isn't good at all, and one of

794
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 3: them is, I think, has a good chance to be

795
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 3: the NFC one seed. So just keep it easy and

796
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:08,959
Speaker 3: take the good team.

797
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, I hear you. I guess I'm only pushing back because, like,

798
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 5: what if Green Bay does win at home against a

799
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 5: defense that's talented but not that very good, and maybe

800
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 5: you get inside of touchdown as opposed to lay in

801
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 5: the extra half point.

802
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 3: Now that's my only possible it's a good point. Normally

803
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 3: I would not take a seven and a half here

804
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 3: for exactly that reason. You hope it flips to the

805
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 3: other side. But I think the fact that the Lions

806
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 3: are facing the Bears also, and that like, even if

807
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 3: that stays close, you know, the Bears often keep that

808
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 3: one close, but the Lions are almost certainly not going

809
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 3: to lose that game, So I just think Detroit is

810
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 3: still a bit undervalued. They came out of the bye

811
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 3: week last week and just throttled the Chargers defense and

812
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 3: put up tons of offense, and I just think that

813
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 3: the Lions are going to keep rolling Packers' defense here. Honestly,

814
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 3: I don't mind it at seven and a half, at

815
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 3: nine and a half, whatever, So I'm not really too

816
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 3: worried to get under a key number here, just because

817
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 3: I think Detroit's that much better. So that's the reason

818
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 3: to not wait and grab it in case it does

819
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 3: rise instead.

820
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 5: Okay, fair enough, very good. That's gonna do it. For

821
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 5: this week's NFL Best Bets episode NFL Week eleven Best

822
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 5: Bets Here on the Action Network podcast we are presented

823
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 5: by Bett MGM. The full Sunday six pack NFL betting

824
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 5: preview with Raybon and Stucky is available wherever you get

825
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 5: your podcast. And then don't forget Monday morning. We got

826
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 5: a funky week next week because of the holiday, but

827
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 5: Monday morning you'll still get the recap episode with Jill Gollan,

828
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 5: who's featured today with us Evan Abrams Brandon will appear

829
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 5: for his hot read, so be on the lookout for that.

830
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 5: We will have a Week twelve Best Bets episode coming

831
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 5: your way first thing Wednesday morning, Thanksgiving Eve. Wednesday morning,

832
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 5: the podcast will be out for you night owls. It'll

833
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 5: be out at like two o'clock in the morning, so

834
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 5: be on the lookout for that. We will have a

835
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 5: Best Bets episode ahead of week twelve Thursday the Thanksgiving Games,

836
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 5: then into the weekend as well next week. Folks, don't

837
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 5: forget to download the free award winning Action Network ap

838
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:03,399
Speaker 5: to see all of the picks from the guys other

839
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 5: contributors that cover the NFL. Here at Action Network for

840
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 5: Joe Galant, Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, Brandon Anderson, Brendan glass Sheen.

841
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening. We will join you again midweek next

842
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,479
Speaker 5: week for Week twelve Best Bets Here on the Action

843
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,240
Speaker 5: Network podcast presented by MGM.

844
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

845
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

846
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

847
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 5: hundred Gambler