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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen, twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 2: fifty and the kick as block the college football world.

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Speaker 1: Stundar, Oh my goodness, please stumble the bumble, the lateral

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Speaker 1: turn a cire on the up, do you, Folley? I'm

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Speaker 1: not the table up the field the knight. It's not

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Speaker 1: the sage bump the dog in the fighting.

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Speaker 3: It's the sage of the fight in the.

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Speaker 1: What's up the generate nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: This is the Week seven college football betting preview. I'm

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Speaker 1: stuck in with me, as always is Colin Wilson. Still

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Speaker 1: trying to get over that sad, sad performance from the

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Speaker 1: raging Cagens last night.

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Speaker 4: Nineteen plays, twelve minutes. They never got the ball back.

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Speaker 4: For everybody that had a live bet, I had a

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Speaker 4: live bet, I had pregame minus one couldn't get the

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Speaker 4: ball back?

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Speaker 3: How are you? How are they not even a chance?

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Speaker 4: You know? And you just this Cagen's team is not

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Speaker 4: a hurry up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I had plus three and a half live and

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Speaker 1: what it took to lose that the pass interference from

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Speaker 1: the ref that was far away third and ten, They

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Speaker 1: just it was just a soul crushing drive and then

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Speaker 1: of course they can't go down the field and get

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Speaker 1: in the back door with a couple drops there late.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's for those not familiar, there's the points

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Speaker 1: Bet has a bad beat index. Now unfortunately live bets

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Speaker 1: don't care, but I'd be interested to see where that

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Speaker 1: would have ranked the plus three and a half because

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Speaker 1: points bet keeps track the worst beats of the season

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Speaker 1: and their bad beat indecks. And then, you know, so

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Speaker 1: if you want to have a truly awful bad beat refunded,

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Speaker 1: check out points Bet because it's a pretty cool feature

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Speaker 1: that they're doing.

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Speaker 4: Points Bet bad beat indecks should take into account Billy

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Speaker 4: Napier punting fourth and one from the fifty yard line,

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Speaker 4: never getting the ball back, finding his quarterback up and reverse.

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Speaker 3: What the hell was that?

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Speaker 1: Just brutal? All right, Well, anyway, we're going to get

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Speaker 1: to Friday night lights. We'll get to the Friday night

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Speaker 1: games later in the show, our money line underdog parlay,

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Speaker 1: our favorite favorite aka overdog. Before we do that, we're

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Speaker 1: going to get to the five marquee games of the weekend,

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Speaker 1: and there are some really good games this weekend. It's

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Speaker 1: week seven, early to mid October. This is the last

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Speaker 1: years is when we really started to get it rolling,

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Speaker 1: so hopefully we can do it again this year. But

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Speaker 1: we have you know, Alabama, Texas at and M you

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Speaker 1: know Oklahoma, Texas, LSU, Florida. There's some fire games, Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame USC, so we'll get to all of that. It's

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Speaker 1: a great weekend in college with There isn't really any

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Speaker 1: great situational spots this weekend, so we're going to skip

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Speaker 1: the look ahead or look away segment and let's just

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Speaker 1: do a quick rundown of each conference, as we have

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Speaker 1: been doing here lately. We'll go alphabetically. Let's start in

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Speaker 1: the AAC. When you and I on noon on a

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Speaker 1: Saturday are on temple together, good things happen, al gifts

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Speaker 1: are flying, and it looks like we are both on

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Speaker 1: temple once again here at plus six. I'm also on

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Speaker 1: under fifty one down to forty nine. I still like

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Speaker 1: it a forty nine. Both of these defenses are very underrated.

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Speaker 1: I think they're right up there in tops of the

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Speaker 1: nation and third down defense. But you like the Owls

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Speaker 1: here this weekend, right, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 3: Do like the Owls.

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Speaker 4: It seems like everybody else is kind of caught on

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Speaker 4: and back to, you know, the Owls in this spot too.

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Speaker 4: But I mean, Memphis is a boom er bust offense.

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Speaker 4: They're very reliant on explosive plays. They're successful and just

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Speaker 4: forty five percent of their runs forty three percent of

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Speaker 4: their passes, which is well below the national average. But

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Speaker 4: you know, they, like I said, they live off of

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Speaker 4: the big. The big play their top five and passing

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Speaker 4: plays of forty yards or more, but they're eighty fifth

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Speaker 4: and first downs, so that's that they'll pop an eighty

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Speaker 4: seventy sixty yard er. You know, they don't accumulate first

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Speaker 4: downs whatsoever. And that's the only way they could score

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Speaker 4: because their red zone scoring percentage.

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Speaker 3: Is ninety eight.

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Speaker 4: So expecting to see an app state like nineteen play

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Speaker 4: drive that takes twelve minutes that just doesn't happen from Memphis.

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Speaker 4: Temple's allowed just three rushes in eight passes over twenty

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Speaker 4: yards the entire season. They are a very stingy defense,

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Speaker 4: especially when it comes to explosive plays. Temple is off

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Speaker 4: a little bit extra s from that East Carolina debacle.

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Speaker 4: And Memphis is just off of a boat race with

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Speaker 4: ULM where they were just up and down the field,

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Speaker 4: scoring over fifty points.

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Speaker 3: And they might have overlooked a TWU lane.

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Speaker 4: The AAC is getting all this conversation about best team,

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Speaker 4: you know, for New Year's six spot, and they have

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Speaker 4: a huge game Memphis does with two lane next week.

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Speaker 4: So I don't know if there's overlook here, but Temple

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Speaker 4: is definitely going to be different pace than two lane.

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Speaker 4: It's just going to be bruising, getting beat up and

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Speaker 4: tough sledding.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it was way too much value to

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Speaker 1: pass up at at six here on the als, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: at their top five nationally and third down defense, they're

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Speaker 1: special teams at disasters. One thing that does give me pause,

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Speaker 1: But I couldn't pass up plus six. And then Memphis

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Speaker 1: defense is playing really well this year, and their offense,

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Speaker 1: you know, their numbers are you know, some of them

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Speaker 1: are impressive. But who had they played. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: played Navy and beat them by twelve at home, all

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Speaker 1: right right around the number. But they played Louisiana Monroe,

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Speaker 1: they played you know on that bock. That final score

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Speaker 1: was kind of misleading that fifty two thirty three. They

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Speaker 1: played South Alabama Southern and then they won fifteen to

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Speaker 1: ten over Ole Miss to start the year. It's not

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Speaker 1: a profile that I'm overly impressed with. And yeah, I

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Speaker 1: do think that the Temple's defense can have some success here,

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Speaker 1: and I think it'll be a closer game than the

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Speaker 1: spread indicates. Staying in the AAC. I just want to

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Speaker 1: mention one play that I made on South Florida plus seven.

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Speaker 1: It's down to five. I bought the hook to get

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Speaker 1: the seven when I figured it was never going to

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Speaker 1: get there. The YU has lost their quarterback, the starting quarterback, Wilson,

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Speaker 1: and they're starting running back for the year. This team's

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Speaker 1: been traveling all over the place. I think South Florida. Look,

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Speaker 1: I know it's Yukon, and Yukon is still Yukon, but

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Speaker 1: with McCloud now named the Store, there's no ore on

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Speaker 1: the depth chart. You know, he's more of a dual

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Speaker 1: threat quarterback, which they need because their offensive line is

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Speaker 1: a disaster. BYU. They do a lot of good things

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Speaker 1: on defense, one of the things that they don't do

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Speaker 1: is get after the quarterback. So you know they don't

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Speaker 1: pressure as much as some of these other teams. So

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Speaker 1: I like South Florida. Here at five it gets a

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Speaker 1: little tougher, but I still like them. I think they

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Speaker 1: have a shot at pulling off the out right up set.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any feel on that game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like.

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Speaker 4: South Florida in this, and I've actually been waiting for

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Speaker 4: it to come back because I don't think I could

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Speaker 4: get a six and a half myself, and it's actually

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Speaker 4: dropping as you and I are recording. I think we're

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Speaker 4: gonna get some four and a halves out of this number,

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Speaker 4: so it's best to get it as quick as you can.

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Speaker 4: You know, I don't want to say South Florida's reborn

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Speaker 4: a completely new offensive strategy. Blake Barnett is out, the

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Speaker 4: McCloud kid is in. I mean, you had a game

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Speaker 4: against Yukon. You blew out Yukon, doubled their score, scored

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Speaker 4: over forty. I need another game before I crown you

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Speaker 4: as revitalized just beating Yukon.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like South Florida in the spot.

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Speaker 1: And then there's we also have Navy Tulsa. This is

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Speaker 1: a really interesting game from an emotional recovery standpoint. So

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Speaker 1: you had nave with that huge emotional win over air

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Speaker 1: Force last week, and even in the pressor the postgame presser,

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Speaker 1: Navy's head coach Ken Matola, I always pronounced it wrong.

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Speaker 1: He said, Look, I usually am all about next week,

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Speaker 1: but I told the guys to enjoy it. And then

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Speaker 1: he said, look, I'm a little worried that we're going

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Speaker 1: to be a little hungover after that win. But you

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Speaker 1: also have to worry about Tulsa's mindset after losing that

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Speaker 1: absolute heartbreaker to SMU. Again, they probably should have won

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Speaker 1: if they just had a kicker who could make any kicks.

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Speaker 1: And look, this Tulsa team, they were really close with

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State in the second half at home, and then

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State scored a couple late touchdowns to make that

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Speaker 1: score look missleading. They really should have won at SMU.

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Speaker 1: So this team has been a little better than their

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Speaker 1: record may indicate. They have not fared too well against

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Speaker 1: Navy in the past, and their games have been really

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Speaker 1: high scoring, I think, averaging like sixty six points per game.

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Speaker 1: But if I was going to trust one of these

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Speaker 1: teams to get over you know, a potential hangover, it

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Speaker 1: has to be you know, a service Academy and Navy.

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Speaker 1: What are you seeing here with Navy Tulsa.

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Speaker 4: I mean I took Navy right off the start. From

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Speaker 4: this Navy opened up at plus two. That's moved out

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Speaker 4: to minus one. There's some pretty heavy if you're into

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Speaker 4: contrarying our ROLM stuff. Probably the people that cap just

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Speaker 4: based on that are going to talk a lot about

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Speaker 4: this game and the fact that Navy's taking in all

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Speaker 4: the money and the numbers just kind of setting around

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Speaker 4: at minus one. But for me, the handicap is a

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Speaker 4: lot different. Navy's defense they have been just tremendous in

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Speaker 4: the trench. It was a reason I took them against

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Speaker 4: Air Force. And Tulsa's offensive line is outside the top

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Speaker 4: one hundred and almost all of the categories. Navies on

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Speaker 4: defense their top twenty five in the line yards, stuff, right,

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Speaker 4: sack rate. Four teams in the nation have allowed more

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Speaker 4: tackles for loss than Tulsa. So everybody's in the backfield

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Speaker 4: playing against Tulsa. Their success rate in passing downs is,

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Speaker 4: you know, second best in AAC at twenty eight percent,

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Speaker 4: But Navy is the best in defensive success rate. When

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Speaker 4: it comes to passing downs, it's sixteen percent. So it's

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Speaker 4: really kind of a clash there where I think Navy

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Speaker 4: can take away what Tulsa does best on offense. You know,

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Speaker 4: I don't care about money and take account and all that,

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Speaker 4: but I don't care that it's all on Navy in

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Speaker 4: this instance, that they just have the better team in

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Speaker 4: the trenches and they can take what Tulsa does best.

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Speaker 3: They can take that away from them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, And the last game I'll mentioned in the AAC

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Speaker 1: is Houston Cincinnati, So you could argue that Cincinnati may

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Speaker 1: have a little bit of a hangover here after their

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Speaker 1: win over UCF. Houston is coming off of a bye,

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Speaker 1: a much needed buy after their early season schedule. They

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Speaker 1: started at Oklahoma and then had you know, three short

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Speaker 1: weeks in a row, and it really you could really

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Speaker 1: see it on their defense, and their defense is improved.

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Speaker 1: Their new defensive coordinator has come in from Arkansas State,

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Speaker 1: and it has a been a train wreck. Yeah, they

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Speaker 1: got blown out by Oklahoma, but so do a lot

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Speaker 1: of mediocre teams. But they hung against Washington State, you know,

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Speaker 1: until the second half when really that fatigue set in. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the same thing with Tulane, and then at North Texas

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Speaker 1: they won by twenty one. This team, I know Derek

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Speaker 1: Kings sitting out, but this team still has a ton

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Speaker 1: of talent. But it really comes down to what Clayton

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Speaker 1: Tune can do, because if he can't get the ball

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Speaker 1: downfield against this excellent Cincinnati defense and they become one dimensional,

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati will shut you down. But I think that this

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Speaker 1: Houston team might have a little value in the market.

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Speaker 1: They got much, they have much need of rest, and

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Speaker 1: people are just writing them off. But what they showed

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Speaker 1: me at North Texas I think was pretty impressive.

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Speaker 4: We'll see where this line goes. I mean, there's a

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Speaker 4: couple of shops. I got it at seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: I make this game five and a half. Cincinnati does

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Speaker 4: have a couple of extra days rest. I also make

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Speaker 4: the game fifty four on the total, so it's a

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Speaker 4: little bit less.

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Speaker 3: Than what I think.

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Speaker 4: So there is value in Houston over the seven based

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Speaker 4: on our projections over at the Action Network, I mean,

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Speaker 4: which Houston team are you going to get? Are you

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Speaker 4: gonna get the first half one against North Texas that

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Speaker 4: barely scored any points? Are the one that you know

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Speaker 4: that scored fifty points in the second half against North Texas?

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Speaker 3: And you know you're right about Cincinnati.

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Speaker 4: We'll see what kind of hangover they have now that

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Speaker 4: they can maybe possibly afford to lose a game because

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Speaker 4: of the division they're in and they've already beat their

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Speaker 4: rival in that division, you can kind of go and

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Speaker 4: cruise control. I'm not sure if that's something that goes

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Speaker 4: through their mind. Can't get over just how bad UCF

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Speaker 4: played in the red zone. So you know, I think

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Speaker 4: someone's going to sneak up on Cincinnati. I just don't

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Speaker 4: think it's going to be Houston. I would take Houston

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Speaker 4: at seven and a half or better higher than that.

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Speaker 4: We'll see where the line goes, but I don't think

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Speaker 4: they can win the game out right.

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Speaker 1: Fair enough, let's move on to the ACC. We'll get

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Speaker 1: to Virginia Miami later in Friday night lights. The only

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Speaker 1: other game I really wanted to cover here, just to

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Speaker 1: get your thoughts on the line is Clemson Florida State.

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Speaker 1: So my thinking here. You know, when I first saw

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Speaker 1: this line, I said, it looks about right, and then

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Speaker 1: I started to say to myself, you know, Clemson off

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Speaker 1: of a bye, They've all they've been hearing. Is this

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Speaker 1: Clemson team, you know, is lacks a daisical and they're not.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just the narrative no one. People are

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Speaker 1: starting to question Clemson. You know, Florida State's gonna have

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Speaker 1: Blackman out there. Hornybrook, I think is going to play

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Speaker 1: as well. But is this a game that Clemson doesn't

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Speaker 1: have really many good games on their schedule left, but

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Speaker 1: after a bye here, after barely holding on against North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: is this a game where Clemson comes out and just

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Speaker 1: names it and says, hey, everyone, we're still the national champs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think the number is spot on.

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Speaker 4: I think we have this sedction over at twenty six,

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Speaker 4: so it's sitting at twenty seven, twenty seven and a half,

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Speaker 4: so the number is spot on. We even have the

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Speaker 4: total of sixty one and the game is listed at sixty.

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Speaker 4: So definitely don't think there's value on either side. But

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Speaker 4: as far as Clemson have a motivation, that's all they've

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Speaker 4: heard the last two weeks. And then Dabbo I think

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Speaker 4: for those of you that haven't seen, Dabo got hot

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Speaker 4: in an interview. Asked about if Trevor Lawrence has had

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Speaker 4: an MRI, I don't think that he officially said no. Instead,

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Speaker 4: he got really hot and got defensive and said, it's

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Speaker 4: none of nobody's business who gets an MRI, and it's

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Speaker 4: nobody's business what Trevor Lawrence is doing, and which would

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Speaker 4: tell me that the answer is yes. So I don't

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Speaker 4: know if there's an unspecified injury with Trevor. Maybe something

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Speaker 4: with his throwing mechanics isn't right compared to last year,

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Speaker 4: But at least from a statistical point of view, Florida

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Speaker 4: State has given up nineteen passes over twenty yards. That's

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Speaker 4: ninetieth in the nation. So if Clemson wants to throw

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Speaker 4: it deep, they should be able to throw it deep.

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Speaker 4: I know Jim Livitt came in as a consultant to

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Speaker 4: Harlan Barnett. I know that the defense is I think

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Speaker 4: they might have changed up schemes from a four two

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Speaker 4: five down to a four to three. So I'm not

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Speaker 4: sure how that's going to affect the way Florida State plays.

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Speaker 4: Maybe they take a page out of North Carolina's book

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Speaker 4: and decide that they're not going to let anything get passed.

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Speaker 4: They'll give up anything within fifteen yards, but they won't

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Speaker 4: let me think it passed them. We'll see, but Clemson

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Speaker 4: should be able to name it. With the talent that

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Speaker 4: they have on the outside with Higgins and Justin Ross.

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Speaker 4: If they don't win this game by it, I don't know,

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Speaker 4: say at least twenty four or at least push on

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Speaker 4: the spread. I've got Ohio State and Clemson power rank

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Speaker 4: the same way. You know, we haven't gone completely full

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Speaker 4: ship in so Ohio State. It's the best team in

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Speaker 4: the nation. But if Clemson can at least get close

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Speaker 4: to the spread or cover the spread comfortably, or look

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Speaker 4: like a national title contender, I will drop them, you know,

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Speaker 4: maybe down to fifth, maybe down to sixth.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on here to the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to the Red rivel rivalry Texas Oklahoma later.

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Speaker 1: The only game I really wanted to touch on here

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Speaker 1: Iowa State West Virginia just quickly. It's an interesting spot

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Speaker 1: for West Virginia. Last time they lost back to back

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Speaker 1: home games I think was twenty fourteen. So they lost

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Speaker 1: to Texas last week is right around this number ten,

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Speaker 1: ten and a half point underdogs in a game they

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Speaker 1: probably should have won. If you look at the box score,

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Speaker 1: you say, how did Texas win this game? And you

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Speaker 1: know the answer was some miss field goals, Kendall throwing

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Speaker 1: more interceptions, He's thrown seven this year, and West Virginia

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Speaker 1: brings in Iowa State in between Texas and then going

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Speaker 1: to Oklahoma. You know, I don't know if it's necessarily

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Speaker 1: sandwich about. This team wants to get as many wins

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Speaker 1: as they can. But the Clones it's B October. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they haven't lost in October since twenty seventeen. It could

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Speaker 1: be a semi letdown for West Virginia. This game, to

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Speaker 1: me just scream stay away. Line looks about right. But

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Speaker 1: did you have any feel there?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Actually the line screams to me, take the over

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Speaker 4: All those things that West Virginia did last week, they

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Speaker 4: left a lot of points on the table, and you know,

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Speaker 4: if they just don't have as many mistakes, I think

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Speaker 4: that they could put up a lot more points. I

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Speaker 4: think Neil Brown's system they're finally starting to get the

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Speaker 4: hang of it now that we're more than a month

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Speaker 4: into play, and they could score some points. I actually

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Speaker 4: project this game to be at sixty three. Do I

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Speaker 4: want to fade B October? No, I don't want to

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Speaker 4: fade rock pretty in the month of October. I do

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Speaker 4: think the number is a little bit high. I think

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Speaker 4: I have this at six for West Virginia, so ten's

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Speaker 4: a little bit high. I would put value on the

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Speaker 4: home dog here, But more importantly, I project this at

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Speaker 4: sixty three. If I think Iowa State can score, which

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Speaker 4: I do, and I think West Virginia left a whole

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Speaker 4: bunch of points on the table, which they did, then

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Speaker 4: I think the better play here is.

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Speaker 1: The over fair enough. Yeah, and you can always check

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Speaker 1: out Collins numbers and projections on the Action app. Let's

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Speaker 1: move on to the big ten here and guess what

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Speaker 1: we said. It's October. Well, it's October. That means we

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Speaker 1: got weather. We're talking weather. Finally we have wins. We

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Speaker 1: even have potential snow Saturday night for the FS one

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Speaker 1: game in Minneapolis, could have snow for Nebraska Minnesota. We

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Speaker 1: also have Michigan State Wisconsin. I'm on Michigan State plus

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Speaker 1: ten and a half here. Call me a sucker, but

355
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Speaker 1: that run defense against Wisconsin, and I'm still one of

356
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Speaker 1: the top two or three run defenses in the country

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Speaker 1: against Wisconsin in twenty to twenty five miles on our wins,

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Speaker 1: potentially thirty to thirty five miles on our win. Gus

359
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Speaker 1: I mean, this game might be first to seventeen. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to look at the under, but catching ten and

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Speaker 1: a half in this game is way too many.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Michigan State is definitely built to go up against bruising,

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Speaker 4: rush heavy offenses and not really the spread them out

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Speaker 4: and throw a deep type that Ohio State was doing.

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Speaker 4: So I do think there's a lot of value here

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Speaker 4: in the ten and a half. But covering a ten

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Speaker 4: and a half point spread with a total that's forty

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Speaker 4: and this kind of weather and these two kinds of teams,

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Speaker 4: that's going to be tough to do. Plus, take notice

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Speaker 4: of what Jack Cone did last week, you know, for

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Speaker 4: Wisconsin and passing down situations. He we didn't have any

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Speaker 4: success whatsoever, and that was one of the big things

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Speaker 4: that we've been watching with consent. Are they a true

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Speaker 4: national title contender. We know about Jonathan Taylor, we know

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Speaker 4: about the offensive line, the defense has been fantastic this year,

376
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Speaker 4: but what about Jack Cone and passing down situation. They're

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Speaker 4: one of the worst in success rate in passing downs.

378
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Speaker 4: So I think this is just a spot where there's

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Speaker 4: too many points. I actually power rate the game at nine,

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Speaker 4: but I mean, considering the weather and the fact that

381
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Speaker 4: you know, I haven't seen anything out of Cone in

382
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Speaker 4: passing situations. I think Michigan State plus ten and a

383
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Speaker 4: half is definitely the play.

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Speaker 1: Well, the world wants to know. Are you fading Minnesota,

385
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Speaker 1: who is probably the most fraudulent five and zero in

386
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Speaker 1: the country. I mean, they started off the year coming

387
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Speaker 1: back against South Dakota State, then they had to beat

388
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Speaker 1: Fresno State in overtime. Then they beat Georgia Southern at

389
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Speaker 1: home by three, then they beat Purdue by seven score

390
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Speaker 1: a little misleading, and then they finally blew out Illinois.

391
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Speaker 1: It has been impressive. If you look at a lot

392
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Speaker 1: of the underlying numbers with Minnesota and Nebraska, look their

393
00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:06,479
Speaker 1: offense just every time I try to look at them

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Speaker 1: and dig deeper, the offense looks just uglier and uglier.

395
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Speaker 1: So you know, I had to play given the potential

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Speaker 1: for wind and snow, I played the under here. I

397
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Speaker 1: think Minnesota can shut down this Nebraska offense. Are you

398
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Speaker 1: fading Minnesota taking Nebraska? You're getting a touchdown on the

399
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Speaker 1: hook here.

400
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,959
Speaker 4: Absolutely should be taking Nebraska, shouldn't I But for some reason,

401
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Speaker 4: after I went through the numbers, after I put some

402
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Speaker 4: more time and some study into this on Monday and Tuesday.

403
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Speaker 4: I can't even touch them at seven and a half.

404
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Speaker 4: And I mean, I know that this is way far

405
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Speaker 4: off for power ratings, but Minnesota's allowed US three rushing

406
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Speaker 4: attempts to go over twenty yards. They've also allowed just

407
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Speaker 4: ten passes to go over twenty yards. That's tenth in

408
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Speaker 4: the nation. I mean, they're amazing against explosive plays. They

409
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 4: don't allow anything to get to behind them whatsoever. They're

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Speaker 4: one of the best of the nation. Both defense should

411
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:50,359
Speaker 4: have success in the havoc department because both of the

412
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 4: offensive lines are outside the top one hundred. I think

413
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Speaker 4: that's really why I don't like Minnesota. Their offensive line

414
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 4: is horrid, but so is Nebraska's. Under definitely is the

415
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Speaker 4: play here. I don't know how Minnesota covers the seven

416
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Speaker 4: and a half, but I'm I just got a feeling

417
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 4: it's going to be another one of those Minnesota fraudulent games,

418
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 4: and Nebraska's just could be turnover heavy again.

419
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Speaker 3: I don't know how you can back the.

420
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 4: Corn Huskers until they're able to protect the ball.

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Speaker 1: I did see something that made me cringe. The only

422
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Speaker 1: thing that made me cringe that so far this week

423
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 1: that came across from your bets on the when I

424
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,399
Speaker 1: get notified is Illinois Illinois plus twenty one and a

425
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 1: half against Michigan. I get the spot. You know they're right.

426
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,200
Speaker 1: Michigan's coming off that win against Iowa. They have Penn

427
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Speaker 1: State on deck. But this Illinois team, I mean last

428
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 1: week against Minnesota, the Nebraska game, they only lost by four,

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Speaker 1: but the bay were completely dominated in that game, and

430
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Speaker 1: I mean completely The total yards were six seventy four

431
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Speaker 1: for Nebraska to two ninety nine for Illinois. They barely

432
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 1: beat Yukon. What do you see in this Illinois team

433
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 1: who maybe without Peters ex Michigan quarterback under center? What

434
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 1: makes you have faith in Illinois and Champagne here?

435
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,240
Speaker 3: Everything was going right last week.

436
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 4: We were Brandon Peters had Illinois going, We were down,

437
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,600
Speaker 4: Reggie Corbyn was running all over the place. Where were

438
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 4: down just sixteen to ten going into the half. Brandon

439
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,200
Speaker 4: Peters gets knocked out and then Matt Robinson, the red

440
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,679
Speaker 4: shirt freshman comes in to back up Peters and just

441
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 4: was everything you would expect from an Illinois backup red

442
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 4: shirt freshman at quarterback.

443
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:13,920
Speaker 3: And the good news is they got two others.

444
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 4: They got a trio of red shirt freshman at quarterback,

445
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 4: which looks like they're all going to play instead of

446
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 4: Brandon Peters. But you know, I still can't get around

447
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 4: the numbers. Illinois has a top twenty defensive unit and

448
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 4: havoc and Michigan's offensive line is sixty eighth after that

449
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 4: turnover fest that they had with Iowa. Michigan just cannot

450
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 4: protect the ball. And Reggie Corbin, I mean, you should

451
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 4: be able to get something going. Michigan's allowing one hundred

452
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 4: and thirty yards in the ground. I like them to

453
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 4: cover this huge number. I mean again, we have a

454
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 4: total that's under fifty, a total at forty nine. Michigan's

455
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:40,680
Speaker 4: in a look ahead spot here. They got Penn State

456
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 4: next week. I make the game twenty, So anything over

457
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 4: twenty one I was happy to get into again for

458
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:46,159
Speaker 4: some reason.

459
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 3: It's just an inflated number.

460
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, and their offense just hasn't done anything outside of

461
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 1: the Rutgers game. It just still isn't clicking. Although I alway

462
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 1: does have a legit defense. We'll get to them, all right.

463
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Conference USA. We have some ugly

464
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 1: games in here. I'll mention Fau later in a segment.

465
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 1: I also played Southern miss mind once that got down

466
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 1: to three, I had to play them at home against

467
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 1: North Texas that there are brutal stretch to start the year.

468
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 1: I really like this team, I really like a quarterback

469
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 1: and you know, catching three out there are much needed.

470
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 1: Buy against this North Texas team, I just don't believe

471
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 1: in oh and by the way, La Tech if you

472
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 1: want to fade UMass by its thirty two at home

473
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 1: down there and rest in Louisiana. One of the funniest

474
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 1: things I did this week. I always from time to

475
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 1: time I look at the Sagrid ratings to see who

476
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 1: is the highest FCS team and where do they rank

477
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 1: among the FBS teams, Like sometimes you have North Dakota

478
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 1: State is like the twentieth, the twenty fifth best team

479
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 1: in the country. I went to look this week just

480
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 1: to see where U Mass ranks, because it's a ranking

481
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 1: of all of the schools FBS and FCS, so it's

482
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,600
Speaker 1: like three hundred schools. If I forget who the worst

483
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 1: is Dal Paraiso, I think U Masses like two hundred

484
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 1: and thirteenth. There's one hundred and thirty FBS teams U

485
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,680
Speaker 1: masses like two hundred and thirteenth in the country, including

486
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 1: FCS teams. They're ranked worse than Akron, which I don't

487
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 1: necessarily agree with, but they're a train wreck. But the

488
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,920
Speaker 1: game that really interests me when I started digging into

489
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:09,360
Speaker 1: this week's card is Army Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky's three

490
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 1: and two and an impressive three and two when you

491
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 1: consider they open the season with a home loss to

492
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 1: your boys down there in Conway, Central Arkansas. But then

493
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 1: they want add FIU twenty to fourteen, and then they

494
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 1: lost to Louisville. Then they beat UAB twenty to thirteen,

495
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: and then they went on the road last week against

496
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 1: ODU and won twenty to three. If you're catching a

497
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 1: theme here, their offense stinks and their defense is playing

498
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 1: really well. According to Sports Info solution yards after contact,

499
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:42,199
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky leads the nation against opposing backs. So this

500
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky defense playing really well. Their offense can't really

501
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: do anything at all, but I think that they can

502
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 1: actually compete with Army and slow down this option attack.

503
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 1: I also don't see them doing much against Army. I

504
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,119
Speaker 1: expect the really spirited effort from the Army defense after

505
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: last week's you know, they just got shredded to lane.

506
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 1: So I'm looking at the under here. The points with

507
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky also looks intriguing. What do you see here

508
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 1: with the Hilltoppers.

509
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 4: It is a weird game, and I did take Western

510
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 4: Kentucky plus five. I think we're down to four to

511
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 4: four and a half. I would still take it there,

512
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 4: maybe on the move. The juice has fallen out Western Kentucky.

513
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 4: For a team that's supposed to be in the cellar

514
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,719
Speaker 4: of a G five conference, they've been really good on defense.

515
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 4: They shut out Old do Menu last week. They beat

516
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 4: UAB and forced four turnovers against the Blazers when they

517
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 4: came up to play. They're twenty fourth in total defense,

518
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 4: but they're fifteenth in opponent rushing yards per attempt. And

519
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 4: this is where we get into the handcuff Army. So

520
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 4: when you get to these service Academy teams, it's all

521
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 4: about can you shut down the triple option? How good

522
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 4: are you on the ground. Western Kentucky's really good on

523
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 4: the ground. They're twenty third defensively in stuff rate. Opponents

524
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 4: have just twenty seven percent success rate on third downs.

525
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 4: That's fourteenth in the country for Western Kentucky two lane

526
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 4: limited armies of rush tack, and Western Kentucky has better

527
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 4: numbers than the Trench defensively if you look on football outsiders,

528
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 4: so I'm not sure really how they get it done offensively.

529
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 4: I know my old quarterback from Arkansas tied stories down

530
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 4: there throwing touchdowns from a defensive standpoint and stopping the

531
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 4: triple option.

532
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky's the play. I'm actually looking forward to that

533
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky again.

534
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 4: Action Network Tomorrow is gonna be a rite up on

535
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 4: uab Utsa. We're heading back to the will with our roadrunners.

536
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 4: But I just want to say, there's a Lucha Libra

537
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 4: Wrestling Expedition festival outside of the Alamodome before the uab

538
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 4: Utsa game.

539
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: Oh greatest.

540
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,400
Speaker 4: It's the Mexican wrestlers with the Mass, the Ray, Mysterio Juniors,

541
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 4: the Luja House Party. Come on, it's the Oho here.

542
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 4: It's fantastic whatever. In my opinion, that should be where

543
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 4: college game day is.

544
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the MAC. There are

545
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 1: some ugly games in the MAC this week, as there

546
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 1: are every week. There's some news with Central Michigan Who's

547
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 1: playing New Mexico State this weekend? Owen six New Mexico State.

548
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 1: Central Michigan's a ten point favorite. It looks like their

549
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: quarterback more the transfer from Garden City Community Colleture has

550
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 1: been playing really well. You proved me wrong. I didn't

551
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: think he was ready yet. He tested positive for banned substance,

552
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: might be suspended for the year. Dormandy is now apparently healthy,

553
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: so keep your eye on that situation. That's maybe why

554
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 1: the line has taken a dive. Kent State Kent State

555
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half point favorites at Acron Kent State.

556
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: That's how bad it is for Acron. I don't see

557
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: much of the mac. Do you see anything worth looking

558
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: at this weekend?

559
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 4: What world do we live in where Central Michigan and

560
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 4: Kids State are favored by double digits in both of

561
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 4: their separate games. Acron's coming off of a buy should

562
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 4: be ten instead of fourteen. But I don't know how

563
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 4: you take Achron, But I mean that is the site

564
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 4: that you got to lean on. I think the New

565
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 4: Mexico State number is also a little bit too high.

566
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 4: We have Central Michigan minus eight, so if you can

567
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 4: swallow the dogs, if you can swallow New Mexico State

568
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 4: and you can handle Achron, that's supposed to be the

569
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 4: way that you play.

570
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, after what New Mexico State did to me at

571
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,399
Speaker 1: the Duas last weekend, I'm not sure I can swallow that.

572
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: Hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I want

573
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 2: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

574
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 2: network Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

575
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

576
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,919
Speaker 1: own of the Dallas Mavericks. Can everybody for the Lockdown

577
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: Lakers podcast? Let's Go?

578
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 2: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

579
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: know your team better than anyone and give you the

580
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 2: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

581
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

582
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 1: All right, let's get out of the MAC before I vomit.

583
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 1: Some of those games looking at them this week was

584
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 1: absolutely disgusting. Let's quickly move on to the Mountain West.

585
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 1: I played air Force at minus three. I was shocked

586
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 1: this line came back down the minus three. I think

587
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: it was a three in the hook. One of the

588
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 1: things that I really made me want to bet Air

589
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: Force against Presno is Fresno number one. Their offensive line

590
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: has been bad. Airporce should dominate the trenches. But Fresno's

591
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 1: three news starters at linebacker and they've been out of

592
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: position constantly all year, and that's what you cannot do

593
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: against the option. I think that's going to be a

594
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: big factor in getting the air Force win. I took

595
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: by to three. I have not been a believer in

596
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: this Fresno team all year. Air Force had some bad

597
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: fumble luck, but they should dominate the trenches and laying

598
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 1: only a field goal at home, I had to take them.

599
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: Do you see anything in that game or anything else

600
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: in the Mountain West? No.

601
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 4: Air Force is to play Fresno's eightieth in lineyards on

602
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 4: defense one hundred and sixth, opportunity rate one hundred and

603
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 4: fifth and power success on defense. Fresno cannot hang in

604
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 4: the trenches unless Air Force pull some San Jose State bullshit.

605
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 4: This should be a fine cover Hawaii Boise. I don't

606
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 4: have a play on Hawaii Boise just because the number

607
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 4: I think is spot on. So it's a complete watch

608
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 4: and learn because this could be the conference championship game.

609
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, with Boise State, I think this is a really

610
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: good matchup for them. They have two of the best

611
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: corners in the conference. Back Mining Company should just score

612
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: at Will, and I think that Boise will get some

613
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 1: stops with their pass defense in pressure. So yeah, I

614
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 1: don't think Boise State's going to have any trouble with Hawaii.

615
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 1: And the only other game I'll mention all a right

616
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: up on this is Wyoming San Diego State. I can't

617
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 1: figure out this line. I don't know what I'm missing.

618
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: The Wyoming's four and one, but they've been in a

619
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 1: complete fraud. Nothing they've done has impressed me. They cannot

620
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 1: throw the ball. Their completion percentage on the year, I believe,

621
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: is thirty six point seven percent. Only fifty four percent

622
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: of their passes are on target. Only New Mexico is worse.

623
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: You know. So these are two top five run defenses.

624
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: San Diego is number three in the nation. They're allowing

625
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 1: one point eight one yards per carry forty six yards

626
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: on the ground that leads the nation per game. So

627
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 1: you know, these are also two top twenty five red

628
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: zone defenses. San Diego State will be able to throw

629
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: it more than Wyoming will. Wyoming won't be All Wyoming

630
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 1: could do is run the ball, that is it. They cannot.

631
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 1: They're one of the worst passing offenses I've ever seen

632
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,199
Speaker 1: in my entire life. But if you look at the

633
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: difference between these defenses, you can throw on Wyoming. You

634
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 1: can hit some explosive plays down the field on Wyoming,

635
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: and Wyoming hasn't played anybody. They played UNLB Idaho, Tulsa,

636
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,199
Speaker 1: Texas State, and then got a prayer winner for Missouri.

637
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,160
Speaker 1: They were out gained by about eight billion. So you know,

638
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 1: I think San Diego State will be able to hit

639
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: some big plays down the field. They'll limit any explosive runs.

640
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 1: San Diego State's explosive rush defenses out standing, and Wyoming's

641
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: on seventy three passes of ten plus yards that's third

642
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: most in the nation. I don't know why Wyoming scores

643
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 1: against the San Diego without fluky Wyoming things, But I

644
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: have to play San Diego Stated. I threw him in

645
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: a money line, probably with Boise, and I'm waiting to

646
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: get if it gets down to three, and I'll play

647
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: them again over unders thirty eight. If I had to

648
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: play the total and I now i'd look at the under.

649
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: I don't know who Wyoming scores.

650
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 4: I actually, I was going to take a look at

651
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 4: the over I mean it's it's I project this out

652
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 4: to forty five, and I can tell you why it's

653
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 4: projected out to forty five, and that's because of the

654
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 4: number of snaps San Diego State is playing this year

655
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 4: versus last year.

656
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 3: I know that it's not at least ten. At least

657
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 3: it's not ten, but they.

658
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,479
Speaker 4: Are more up tombo offense than they were last year.

659
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 4: That equals more possessions, more chances to score. And if

660
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 4: you look at Wyoming their defensive pass yards that they've

661
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 4: given up three hundred and fifty four to Tulsa, three

662
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 4: hundred ninety four to Texas State, four hundred and twenty

663
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 4: three to Missou What a joke it was if they

664
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 4: got that game. So, I mean San Diego State is

665
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: going to be able to throw on these guys, you know,

666
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 4: not probably not for as much, but I mean they

667
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 4: did put up two ninety three against UCLA and two

668
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 4: eighty one against Utah State. Expect, after all the fireworks

669
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 4: are done during Saturday and we get settled in for

670
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 4: the last couple of games of the night, I'll probably

671
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 4: have an overrun this game.

672
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the PAC twelve. We'll

673
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 1: get to Oregon, Colorado on Friday night lights. A really

674
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: interesting game to me is Washington State Arizona State. Arizona

675
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: State is getting a couple of starters in the defensive

676
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: backfield this weekend. They also are getting healthier on the

677
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: offensive line. Washington State had a much needed buy after

678
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: getting blown out against Utah. They fire their defensive coordinator.

679
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,239
Speaker 1: They move some guys around in the secondary to new

680
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 1: positions that they played last year. We'll see what that

681
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: does to their defense. Where if it's their defense, no

682
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 1: matter where you look, is disgusting, beyond bad. So you know,

683
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 1: looking at this game, it's a twelve to thirty local

684
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: kick in Tempe. Arizona State getting healthier offensive line back

685
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: in the secondary makes me want to take Arizona State.

686
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: But it's the PAC twelve, and after Washington State has

687
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: been written off and with a new defensive coordinator and

688
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: you know, moving guys around, maybe they play inspired. So

689
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: I think I might have to stay away from that game.

690
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: Do you see anything there now?

691
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 4: I projected right at where it's at at minus one,

692
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 4: so you know, nothing here for me. I think it's

693
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 4: going to be back and forth, and probably something happens,

694
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 4: you know, within the last minute to decide the game.

695
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: Yep. Also a big punning edge for Arizona State. I

696
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 1: got to get my special team's shoutouts in there, and

697
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: Arizona State's been awesome in the red zone. Speaking of

698
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: bad defenses in Washington, I can't believe I'm about to

699
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: say this Washington's defense and we're both on Arizona. The

700
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 1: more I dig, the more I find out it stinks.

701
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: I mean, they have no This is the worst run

702
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: defense that Peterson has ever had at Washington. They lost

703
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 1: a ton of pro talent, and you think all Washington

704
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: should be able to plug and play some guys they

705
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: get really good recruits. But it has been working out Arizona.

706
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: This is true. Pac twelve after Dark, Territory eleven PM

707
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: Kick eleven PM Eastern Kick. Arizona, who switched to a

708
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: three three five. Their defensives are playing a little better

709
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: after doing that. Their offense look fantastic. Take through for

710
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: over four hundreyards against Colorado. Yeah, take it with a

711
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: grain of salt, but I think that the be able

712
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: to run on this Washington team. Catching six at home,

713
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: Pack twelve after dark, I have to roll with the

714
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: Wildcats in Tucson. You agree there, Yeah.

715
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 4: Absolutely, I'm on Arizona. Got some money down on Arizona

716
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 4: for this game five and a half. Clipping at one

717
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 4: book that we're looking at right now, Washington has just

718
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 4: been so terrible on defense. The problems on both sides

719
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 4: of the ball. Actually that a lightning delay. It's a

720
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 4: bad breaks. I guess you could blame that for the

721
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 4: reason that they lost to Cal But you know they

722
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 4: allowed almost five hundred yards to Stanford and David Mills

723
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 4: last week.

724
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 3: That's super impressive.

725
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 4: Those are two games that you know they've lost to

726
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 4: the Pac twelve already, Stanford being on the road. Washington's

727
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 4: defense is one hundred and third line yards, one hundred

728
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 4: and nineteenth in power success rate, one hundred and sixth

729
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 4: and stuff rate. Everybody's able to run on them. I mean,

730
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 4: those are some pretty terrible numbers. I guess some teams

731
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 4: aren't really that good at running the ball. I mean,

732
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 4: passing wise, the secondary's outside the top seventy five, and

733
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 4: passes that are over twenty yards you can throw on

734
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 4: these guys. We know Chase Garber's did Easton. I hate

735
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 4: to return back to June and July four where I

736
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 4: was throwing them under the bus. But he's been inefficient.

737
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 4: They're outside the top forty and success rate in passing

738
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 4: outside the top seventy five and passing down success rate.

739
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 4: Wildcats just aren't They're just not explosive. Let's talk about

740
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 4: you know, Khalil tate offensively in Arizona. They're just not explosive.

741
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 4: They're atomic. I mean, they're ranking top ten and passes

742
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 4: over fifty yards. Forget the twenty yard mark, forget the

743
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 4: explosive play measurement. These guys are hitting forty and fifty

744
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 4: yard passes like there's no tomorrow. Washington ranks eightieth and

745
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 4: red zone points per attempt. That means I think Arizona

746
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 4: is gonna be able to score from any point in

747
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 4: the field. They've proven that already Washington. When they get

748
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 4: to the red zone, they're eightieth in red zone points

749
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: per attempt. I mean, it's just been a struggle for

750
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 4: them to keep other teams from getting on the board,

751
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 4: and it's been a struggle for them to get points

752
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 4: on the board.

753
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 3: And you know, personally, I.

754
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 4: Wouldn't mind if Washington won this game, because if you

755
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 4: take a look at the standings. If Arizona gets this

756
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 4: and wins as an underdog, they're three to oh and

757
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 4: PAC twelve play. I mean that bits them at the

758
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 4: leader board for the South, and I you know, we

759
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 4: have a little bit of futures, a little bit of

760
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 4: money on another team in the South to win. So

761
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 4: you know, I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona wins this

762
00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 4: game out right though, true.

763
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: Pack twelve after dark. I'm sure there'll be a lot

764
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: of people betting on that game at eleven pm Eastern.

765
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the SEC. Well, I

766
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 1: guess it's time for you to lie to me, and

767
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna tell me about how you're not going to

768
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 1: about the Arkansas Kentucky game. Kentucky is a seven point

769
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 1: favorite here in Lexington. Both teams off of buys, both

770
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: teams really need to win. They're sitting at two and three.

771
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: One thing that I will bring up for this game,

772
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 1: it looks like Sawyer Smith will go for Kentucky. You know,

773
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: there was talk about maybe Linn Bolden going to wide

774
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: receiver for Kentucky playing quarterback. He did that against South Carolina,

775
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 1: the electric athlete, but it looks like Sawyer Smith will

776
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 1: go How healthy is he I don't know. But the

777
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 1: one thing I wanted to bring up with Kentucky is

778
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: the punting advantage they will have in this game. Max Duffy,

779
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: the twenty six year old Australian, has been re ridiculous.

780
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: He's averaging forty nine point two six yards net per punt.

781
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 1: That's number one in the nation. That's more than Syracuse,

782
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: who I thought would lead the nation. And they're not

783
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: too far behind Arkansas. We've talked about their special teams woes.

784
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: You know, for the last two years they're at one

785
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: hundred and tenth in the nation in thirty five net yards.

786
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 1: That's a difference of fifteen yards per punt. The one

787
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 1: thing I tell blindly is Colin Arkansas football recommendations by

788
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: or Sell. It doesn't matter, but tell me are you

789
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: betting this whoo pick suy absolute dumpster find dumps your fine.

790
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,359
Speaker 1: I don't know how we win a game the rest

791
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: of the year just following program up. Give us a

792
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:22,280
Speaker 1: death sentence.

793
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 3: Colin's talking razorback football.

794
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 4: Well, first off, I can't swallow Kentucky with a field goal.

795
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 4: I mean, saw your Smith in his health but Stoops

796
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 4: made mentioned this week they're going to go to the

797
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 4: wildcat formation with Lynn Bowden a little bit more. I'm

798
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 4: not really sure Arston knows exactly what they should be

799
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 4: preparing for, so that kind of puts them at a disadvantage.

800
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 4: At the same time, I'm not sure how well Kentucky's

801
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 4: going to be able to execute. And you're right about

802
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 4: the punning and the special team. Special team's always been

803
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 4: bad for Arkansas.

804
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 3: It hasn't improved.

805
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 4: Maybe hire a special teams coach, Maybe get a coach.

806
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 4: I don't know, just a suggestion. It's hard to back

807
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 4: either one of them. Arkansas is slightly more positive and

808
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,879
Speaker 4: yards per played differential, So I was trying to get

809
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 4: into it. I was trying to convince myself bet on

810
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 4: argandst I saw on the road getting seven points, and

811
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 4: then I read Nick Starkles throwing an interception for every

812
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 4: nine pass attempts.

813
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: That's the same. That's crazy.

814
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 4: It's a really tough game to handicap, and I'm just

815
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 4: fine with not betting it at all.

816
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 1: All right, fine, we'll wait for the play to come

817
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 1: through on the app. I'm going to guess talk about

818
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 1: a seven at like eleven thirty am after your first

819
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: couple of drinks. All right, let's move on to the

820
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 1: five marquee games of the weekend. It's another fabulous weekend

821
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 1: of college football.

822
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 3: Let's check out the marquee matchups.

823
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:32,479
Speaker 1: We'll all end up betting for Week seven. Let's start

824
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: with Notre Dame USC. I think we disagree on this game,

825
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 1: or at least your number says so I played USC

826
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: plus eleven. Now, one thing to note. We said it's October.

827
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 1: We can have weather that comes into play. The win

828
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 1: could be a factor. It's hard projecting this far out.

829
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 1: Just something worth noting. But I do want to say here,

830
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 1: I think that USC who's going to get Slovas back?

831
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 1: And look, the fake thing worked well against Utah when

832
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: he was just bombing the ball, but he made so

833
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,399
Speaker 1: many bad reads, especial against with Washington. Getting slows back

834
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: will help that quarterback, will help that offense. They have

835
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: three dynamite receivers. Last year, those three dynamite receivers had

836
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: twenty nine catches for three hundred and five yards against

837
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Well, Notre Dame had a love who went

838
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: to the NFL at corner and their senior corner Sean

839
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 1: Crawford is now out, so I think USC is going

840
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 1: to be able to throw in this team. I think

841
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 1: they're going to be able to move the ball down

842
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 1: the field unless the win gets like twenty twenty five

843
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: miles per hour. But this Notre Dame secondary is now undermanned,

844
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 1: and I think USC can take advantage. I think they

845
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 1: keep this within eleven points. What do you see I.

846
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 3: Do like Notre Dame.

847
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 4: I'm more leaning towards Notre Dame in the first half.

848
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 4: So Slovis does return at quarterback to do the air raid.

849
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 4: And if there's one thing that you know about air

850
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 4: raid offenses, because Mike Leach says this all the time,

851
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 4: I hate by weeks.

852
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:53,760
Speaker 3: He hates bye.

853
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 4: Weeks, and it's because of the timing between his quarterback

854
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 4: and his wide receivers and when they get in watching

855
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 4: off the bye week, it's another one to throw back there,

856
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 4: Mike Leach. I mean, he has one of the worst

857
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 4: records you know for a long time. He did against

858
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 4: I guess it's spread off of a bye week. I

859
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 4: think I think the oddsmakers have adjusted themselves for this,

860
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 4: But air raids off of a bye week, I'm not

861
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 4: really looking to back because of the timing and the sink.

862
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 4: So Notre Dame is eleventh and havoc that's mostly thanks

863
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 4: to tackles for loss a USC ranks in the sixties

864
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 4: for power success and stuff rate on offense, and both

865
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 4: the offensive line for USC is seventeenth and sacrate and

866
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 4: Notre Dame Sacarate is seventeenth on defense. So pretty good

867
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 4: matchup there. But I mean as far as Notre Dame

868
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,879
Speaker 4: secondary their fifth and allowing just nine passes over twenty

869
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 4: yards their twelfth and passing defense success rate. But I

870
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 4: think I want to play the first half. I want

871
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 4: to play against the fact that USC is an air

872
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 4: raid offense coming off of a bye week could be

873
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 4: a little bit out of sync. And I like the

874
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 4: fact that Notre Dame has been so successful in the

875
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 4: havoc department and they've been good at defending explosive plays.

876
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I just think that their Notreame

877
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: is going to play a lot of off coverage, especially

878
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 1: without Crawford as a fifty year senior. And I think

879
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 1: USC is going to be able to move the sticks,

880
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: especially without think out there just not making any reads.

881
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: I think that helps there. Dame has been awesome in

882
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,839
Speaker 1: the red zone on offense, but USC's defense has been

883
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 1: ridiculous in the red zone, which I think, you know,

884
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: holding them to a couple of field goals will also

885
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 1: be a big factor. So I'll be against you there,

886
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: but maybe you get the cover in the first half

887
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 1: and I get the cover for the game. All right,

888
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 1: let's move on to the Red River rivalry. It's no

889
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: longer the shootout between Texas and Oklahoma in Dallas. This

890
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 1: line is sitting right around Oklahoma minus ten and a

891
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 1: half over unders floating between seventy four and seventy six.

892
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 1: I have gone back and forth on this game. And

893
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: we all know Tom Herman thirteen and three against the

894
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 1: spread as a dog. As a head coach, He's covered

895
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 1: this game. Texas has covered this game I think six

896
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: years in a row. And look, the more I look

897
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: at this game, here's what I think it comes down to. Oklahoma.

898
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: I talked about this before the year. Their offensive line

899
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: has helped that offense and you know, be elite the

900
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: last couple of years. It helped them get two Heisman

901
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 1: Trophy winners, and they lost a ton of talent on

902
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 1: that offensive line. Well, now this weekend They're going to

903
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: be potentially without both starting offensive tackles, so Texas faces

904
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: a dilemma. Their pass defense has been really bad, and

905
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 1: you know, if Oklahoma's without both tackles, do they just say, look,

906
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 1: we're not gonna be able to stop them downfield. Let's

907
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: try and bring a ton of pressure and throw Hurts

908
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 1: off his game. I think that's the right way to go.

909
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: If Oklahoma's two tackles are out and todder Lenard throws

910
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: off a ton of pressure and blitz and goes after Hurts,

911
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: I think that Texas's defense has a shot. Now, Oklahoma's

912
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 1: still going to get their points, but so will Texas.

913
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 1: Their offensive line is playing well. I don't even think

914
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 1: they're going to try and run it much. El Ellinger

915
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 1: will be their running game, but there was Colin Johnson's back.

916
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 1: Their receivers are dynamic. Oklahoma hasn't played anyone. Yeah, their

917
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: defense looks improved, but can we see it against a

918
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 1: real offense. This Texas offense has been rolling. Ellener's been rolling.

919
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: You know. I think they're number one in the nation

920
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: and third down conversions their top three and red zone

921
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 1: touchdown percentage. So the more I look at it, I

922
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: start to convince myself on Texas, but I really think

923
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 1: it comes down to what Texas decides to do on defense,

924
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: because they don't come after hurts their secondary. I don't

925
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: think it can hold up with all their injuries they have.

926
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: I think three starters still out. What do you see

927
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 1: here with Texas Oklahoma? Because by the way, Texas is

928
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 1: like if you look at exposive plays allowed in the

929
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: passing and they're way at the bottom, and Oklahoma's obviously

930
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: way at the top, so they have to find a

931
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 1: way to not let that happen. What do you see

932
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 1: here in the Red River rivalry?

933
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I see.

934
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 4: Texas's third down conversion percentage being second in the nation,

935
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 4: but Oklahoma's third. So I mean, I mean, Oklahoma's got

936
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 4: a lot of good points. But to me, I wanted

937
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 4: to be a little bit different. And you can hear

938
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 4: the same old garbage about you know, trends and this rivalry,

939
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 4: like it doesn't matter. These aren't the same players four

940
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 4: years ago, these aren't the same coaches. Just throw all

941
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 4: that out the window. To be the handicap comes down

942
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 4: to three areas. Hurts read option against the defensive ends

943
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 4: of Texas. Texas running backs and their explosiveness because oh

944
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:57,720
Speaker 4: you can be beat and get gashed on the ground

945
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 4: and O use corners, and how they handle dubernih and Johnson.

946
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 4: So let's start with the first one, which one is

947
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 4: Hurts read option versus the defensive ends. The book is

948
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 4: out against Jalen Hurts. The way to stop him, and

949
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 4: the way Clemson was able to do it is if

950
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 4: you have good defensive ends that are athletic. They could

951
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 4: stop Jalen Hurts from running the read option, whether he

952
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 4: decides to hand it off, whether he decides to keep it,

953
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 4: and where he makes his cuts. Malcolm Roach to Kwon

954
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 4: Graham will be the starters at end and they have

955
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 4: just thirteen solo tackles and one one sack combined between

956
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 4: them through.

957
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:27,879
Speaker 3: All of Texas games this year.

958
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 4: I think they had like two tackles total against Joe

959
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 4: Burrow and a similar kind of read option going on.

960
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 4: Neither player had any kind of effect on Joe Burrow's

961
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 4: game whatsoever, and the one example that we have where

962
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 4: they played a high end team a high end opponent.

963
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 4: So I don't think Roach and Graham are going to

964
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 4: be any good at defensive end. I think Jalen Hurts

965
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 4: is going to get the corner, get the edge, and

966
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 4: get the read that he wants every single time. So

967
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 4: advantage for Oklahoma where I.

968
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,280
Speaker 1: Would three, if both tackles are out, you could get messy.

969
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,720
Speaker 4: And I haven't been able to handicap the backups run blocking.

970
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 4: But the defensive line coach for Oklahoma is considered to

971
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 4: be one of the best of the so hopefully they'll

972
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 4: figure that out. But it is a good point that

973
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 4: if the tackles are out that might take it away there.

974
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 4: But I mean the other handicap is Texas running backs

975
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 4: and if they have any kind of explosiveness against the OUD,

976
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 4: it's just something that is not a part of Keyante

977
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:13,959
Speaker 4: Ingram's game. He has not been able to break anything.

978
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:15,479
Speaker 4: I think his biggest run this year was a twenty

979
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 4: six yarder against Rice four point seven yards per carry.

980
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,839
Speaker 4: Hasn't had a run over twenty yards since that Rice game.

981
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 4: Ellinger really represents the best chance to expose OU's rush defense.

982
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 4: Exactly how many yards can he run for?

983
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 1: Right?

984
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 4: And then the third kind of handicapped to the whole

985
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 4: thing was OUs corners versus Duvernai and Johnson, which I'm

986
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 4: just shocked. Duverna has not dropped a pass since twenty seventeen.

987
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 4: That's amazing. That's just a crazy stab. With Johnson back

988
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 4: out wide, I mean the Douverna is going to move

989
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 4: into the slot, They're going to be able to abuse

990
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 4: OU's corners. But if you look at OU their defense,

991
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 4: they haven't given up any explosive runs whatsoever this season.

992
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 4: So I expect Ingram to not be able to do

993
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 4: anything from the backfield. But as far as the secondary goes,

994
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:53,919
Speaker 4: they are improved. I don't want to say they're good,

995
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 4: but they're not last year. Last year they were flat

996
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 4: out statues. The secondary was terrible. They couldn't stop anybody

997
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 4: from going downfield and catching the ball.

998
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 3: This season, OU's kind of midpack. You know.

999
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 4: OU is dead last and passes of ten yards last

1000
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 4: year dead last and all of FBS. This year they're

1001
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 4: forty fourth and passes allowed over ten yards. They are

1002
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 4: showing a little bit of resistance. So I think there's

1003
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 4: a lot of advantages in Jalen Hurts and his Reid option.

1004
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 4: I don't think heanta Ingram is going to be a

1005
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 4: factor as a running back with explosive plays, and I

1006
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 4: think that the ou defense in the secondary is improved

1007
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 4: just enough, just enough to make this more of an

1008
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 4: even fight than it was last year. So I like

1009
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 4: Oklahoma in this game, and I like Oklahoma big. I'm

1010
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 4: waiting on the ten. I think we're going to get

1011
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 4: a ten. I think the market's starting to come in.

1012
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 4: There's some more Texas money coming in on this ten

1013
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 4: and a half, and any ten that pops up, I'm

1014
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,439
Speaker 4: going to play Oklahoma if I was doing some sort

1015
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 4: of points met thing, or if I could get it

1016
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 4: and I had to have an know, I think we're

1017
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 4: gonna have an overdog segment.

1018
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 3: Oklahoma is the one that I like the most as

1019
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 3: far as the favorite.

1020
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 1: Goes maybe against you there. We'll have a big write

1021
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 1: up for that on the Action app at Actionnework dot Com.

1022
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: A couple of things out just mentionic quickly. It's Oklahoma

1023
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: penalties have been a major issue. They need to clean

1024
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 1: that up. They're tied with Miami for second most penalty

1025
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: yards per game, only Tulsa's worth. They're every remember ninety

1026
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 1: penalty yards per game, and like I said before, Texas

1027
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:10,240
Speaker 1: pass defense as far as yards per game one hundred

1028
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 1: and twenty six in the nation. And they're one hundred

1029
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 1: and twenty second in passing down Sacray. They've had sixty

1030
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 1: seven passes of ten plus yards. That's bottom ten in

1031
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: the nation. Oklahoma has sixty seven, that's top ten in

1032
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 1: the nation. So the Sexes has to do something on defense.

1033
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 1: They have to scheme something up. I think it has

1034
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 1: to be pressure on those ends to get Hurts off

1035
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 1: his game and force him into mistakes. I think that's

1036
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 1: the only way. If they try and sip back with

1037
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,720
Speaker 1: all these defensive backs, it's not going to go well.

1038
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 1: So maybe I'll wait to see how they're playing it live,

1039
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 1: but lot more in the right up. Let's move on

1040
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 1: to LSU Florida Saturday Night Death Valley. LSU is sitting

1041
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 1: at about thirteen and a half point favorite. I will

1042
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 1: say this right away, this whole Oh my god, it's

1043
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: Death Valley on the Saturday night. You have the bad

1044
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 1: ls because of that, because of that narrative. It's one

1045
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: of the most overrated home fields in all college football.

1046
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 1: Is it a great home field? And I'm sure yes,

1047
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 1: But we're talking about covering spreads. LSU, I think is

1048
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 1: like thirty four and forty one against the spread at

1049
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 1: home when they play it in prime time since two

1050
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 1: thousand and five, so it's not all scary. I mean

1051
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,800
Speaker 1: it is, but it's baked into the lined and already

1052
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 1: accounted for it. So it don't just play LSU because

1053
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 1: they're playing at home in death Value on Saturday night. Look,

1054
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 1: I just want to throw this out there. If this

1055
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: gets to fourteen, I might have to take Florida. I

1056
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 1: think we're going to disagree here, but I think Florida's

1057
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:30,439
Speaker 1: being a little disrespected here. It's how does trashcandle death Value?

1058
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a kid who hasn't started since

1059
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 1: his freshman year of high school. He was the backup

1060
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 1: to Derek King, and then he was backing up Franks

1061
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 1: and took over the job. He's done a pretty good

1062
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 1: job so far. But this is a whole different atmosphere.

1063
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 1: But they have the receivers. But I just want to

1064
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:47,439
Speaker 1: throw this out Maybe this LSU passed offense and Joe

1065
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,280
Speaker 1: Burrow is improved. It's a new offense. It's electric coach

1066
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:51,280
Speaker 1: on the football field.

1067
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 3: If we're ailt to see what Joe Burrow is really

1068
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 3: made of, and anybody that knows all team we've made

1069
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 3: of grit.

1070
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: But maybe it's just being overvalued a little bit in

1071
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 1: the market. Let me throw this out to you. Their

1072
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: pass defenses that they've played this year are all outside

1073
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,959
Speaker 1: the top one hundred, all of them, even Texas, who's

1074
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,240
Speaker 1: near the bottom. They haven't played anyone who can defend

1075
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 1: the pass. Last year, Joe Burrow played thirteen games. No, granted,

1076
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 1: he's better, but he did a different offensive system with

1077
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 1: better weapons. But thirteen games last year, seven of them

1078
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 1: were against top twenty five pass defenses, which canick. That's

1079
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 1: a lot seven on thirteen, which explained some of his struggles.

1080
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:28,760
Speaker 1: But in those seven games it includes lack Tech, Miami, Auburn, Georgia,

1081
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 1: Miss State, Alabama. He had one touchdown, four picks, about

1082
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 1: a fifty one percent completion rating average, about one hundred

1083
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 1: and eighty four yards per game. When he didn't face

1084
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 1: a top twenty five pass defense. Six games, fifteen touchdowns,

1085
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: one pick, you know, two hundred and seventy yards per game,

1086
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 1: sixty six percent completion percentage. So he hasn't played a

1087
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,919
Speaker 1: pass defense like Florida since last year when he played

1088
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 1: all those top twenty five pass defenses. Look, yeah, you're

1089
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 1: gonna read that he's been great against the pressure number one,

1090
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: but he's played nobody, He's played no pass defenses. So far.

1091
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 1: He has significantly improved the LSU offense. And LSU overall

1092
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 1: is real. I'm not saying it's not. I'm saying I

1093
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 1: think it might be a little overvalued in the market.

1094
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 1: And this Florida defense, which is excellent, and they're going

1095
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: to pressure, They're gonna get to the quarterback thin and

1096
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 1: cover the outside. Grantham's going to be super aggressive. Might

1097
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: be getting a little disrespected here. That's all I'm saying.

1098
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 1: But LSU is real. I'm not saying that. I'm just saying,

1099
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 1: as far as the line is concerned, what do you

1100
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: see here with LSU Florida.

1101
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 4: Well, I agree with you that Florida is the best

1102
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 4: of LSU was ever going to see. And I agree

1103
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 4: with you that LSU is a little inflated. I mean,

1104
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 4: everybody's hopping on this train now that Joe Brady's made

1105
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 4: them one of the best offenses in the nation. But

1106
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 4: at the same time, I mean, I make the game

1107
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,839
Speaker 4: thirteen and a half and Florida's got I don't care

1108
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 4: about the home field advantage. I mean, I don't think

1109
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 4: that affects the defense that much. Anyways, for Florida, what

1110
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 4: I think matters is that this is your second big.

1111
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 3: Game in a row.

1112
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 4: That's just tough to do in the SEC. Just time

1113
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 4: after time after time, We've see these years where it's

1114
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 4: tough for teams to play these high profile games twice

1115
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 4: in a row. LSU can throw the ball downfield. Auburn

1116
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 4: cannot throw the ball downfield. LSU can throw the ball downfield. Now,

1117
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 4: I think Joe Burrow is going to get stopped, and

1118
00:47:57,320 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 4: I think Joe Burrow is going to get limited at

1119
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,240
Speaker 4: some point. But the Gators are seventy eight and passes

1120
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 4: over twenty yards allowed, and LSU is second in the

1121
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 4: nation that passes over twenty yards. So this is a

1122
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 4: very explosive offense going up against the defense that not

1123
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 4: even midpack. They've kind of fallen back. Bow Nicks just

1124
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 4: couldn't take advantage of that. Bonix cannot thread it down

1125
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 4: the middle. Joe Burrow absolutely can. So while I think

1126
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 4: the Gators defense is going to get theirs, I think

1127
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 4: they're going to get hit by a couple of explosive

1128
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 4: plays also, which is how Florida beat Auburn. Two plays

1129
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,760
Speaker 4: that had some really bad tackling. You know, the coverage

1130
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 4: was there, just some really bad tackling and players were

1131
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 4: able to bake, break loose and get some points on

1132
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 4: the board. I think after seeing Auburn, who's only forty

1133
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 4: first in havoc and they're back seven their secondary, it's

1134
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 4: just going to be a different thing with LSU secondary.

1135
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 4: The LSU secondary is going to be much faster, much

1136
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,439
Speaker 4: more aggressive than what they saw on Auburn secondary last week.

1137
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 4: So I think the number is spot on correct. It's

1138
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 4: not a huge investment for me. I am on LSU

1139
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 4: minus thirteen. If you had I think the game actually

1140
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 4: comes down to to thirteen. I think Florida plus fourteen

1141
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 4: would probably win. But I like the fact that this

1142
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,800
Speaker 4: is I'm taking the team with the mores glossive offense,

1143
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 4: the team that has the better HAVOC on defense, and

1144
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 4: the team that's better have it allowed on offense, and

1145
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,240
Speaker 4: for me, that's LSU. And I think the markets Ferret's

1146
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:08,839
Speaker 4: at the right number. But I'm gonna back the Tigers here.

1147
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 4: I might be against you, especially if this goes fourteen.

1148
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 4: I hope Florida don't even try to run it. And

1149
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 4: I was screaming it against Auburn and LUs use first

1150
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 4: in the nation in power success rate. That's on defense

1151
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 4: that measures runs on third or fourth in short that

1152
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 4: achieve first down. So I hope they don't even try

1153
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:21,800
Speaker 4: to run it.

1154
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 1: Just the short passes are an extension of the running game,

1155
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 1: and that's all they do. But look ed O or

1156
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 1: Dan Mullen something to consider. All right, let's move on

1157
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: here and talk about Alabama, A and M. We'll go

1158
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 1: through this quickly. We all stop on this on the

1159
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 1: app and Action Network dot com. I think this was

1160
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 1: too many points. I grabbed seventeen and a half as

1161
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 1: soon as I saw at Alabama we could finally talk

1162
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 1: about them. They haven't played anybody all year. They have

1163
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 1: questions on that defense and the interior at linebacker, questions

1164
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 1: on the interior offensive line. They gave up what on

1165
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 1: like two hundred and fifty rushing yards to Ole Miss.

1166
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 1: It's if you look at Ole Miss in South Carolina,

1167
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:58,319
Speaker 1: the two SEC games they've played, they're allowing. They allowed

1168
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 1: them to four hundred and fifty yards rushing two games

1169
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 1: in like four point eight of POP. So you know, Texa,

1170
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 1: A and M. There's no rush offense to speak up,

1171
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 1: which is the only scary thing. Their corners have been

1172
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 1: playing really well. I think they're seventh in the nation

1173
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 1: in the yards per past attempt allowed. You know, obviously

1174
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 1: they have a great home field. Mond I think is

1175
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 1: gonna be able to do a lot of things with

1176
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 1: his legs. I think that's gonna be the key to

1177
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 1: the game. Off the edge and the special team's advantage

1178
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:25,320
Speaker 1: for A and M is enormous, maybe the best punter

1179
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 1: in the country. Alabama's punting is a joke. They're field

1180
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 1: goal kicking a joke. It's saved in special teams. So basically,

1181
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 1: Texas A and M's super Bowl. They've already lost two

1182
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 1: games to Auburn, to Clemson, and you know, I like

1183
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:40,880
Speaker 1: what their pass defense did against Clemson, but this is

1184
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 1: their super Bowl at home against Alabama. Off a buy

1185
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 1: and then they're gonna go slow. They're gonna grind it,

1186
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 1: They're gonna run the clock, which makes it harder for

1187
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 1: Alabama to cover this big the number. Now, look, Alabama

1188
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:52,280
Speaker 1: is probably the most explosive pass offense in the country,

1189
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 1: but I just think this is too many points. At

1190
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 1: seventeen or above. Maykee it closer to two touchdowns. I'll

1191
00:50:57,560 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 1: take A and M, and I think this might have

1192
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 1: a chance to get a little scary for Alabama if

1193
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 1: A and M could get a quick score early and

1194
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: keep that crowd in it, which they didn't do against Auburn.

1195
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:07,799
Speaker 1: What do you think?

1196
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 3: Yeah? I agree.

1197
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 4: I may try to get a seventeen and a half

1198
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 4: here as we get off this, because I think the

1199
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 4: number is gonna come down, I make it thirteen and

1200
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 4: a half. So the number is a little inflated. But

1201
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 4: as far as the whole, can they upset Alabama? Let

1202
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 4: me just make this straight. A team with a heavy

1203
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 4: rush attack and beat Alabama and that's not Texas A

1204
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 4: and M. Can Texas A and M keep it close?

1205
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 4: They limited Trevor Lawrence bo Nix only went for one

1206
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 4: hundred and six.

1207
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 3: You know there.

1208
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 4: They've been great in defensive pass explosiveness. They ran twenty

1209
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 4: third in the nation in that category. Aggie's have allowed

1210
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 4: just four passes to go over twenty yards. So can

1211
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,880
Speaker 4: they limit to a yes, to a point. Can they

1212
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 4: limit them enough to cover?

1213
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 3: Yes? They can, so can they upset them? I don't

1214
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 3: think so?

1215
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 1: Fair enough, Let's move on to Penn State, Iowa Saturday,

1216
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:50,400
Speaker 1: night Kinnick Magic. We all know how they've done against

1217
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 1: what top ten teams. They think They're four and four

1218
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 1: at Kinnick at night and they've only lost one game

1219
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 1: by over three points. Look, Iowa, this is going to

1220
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 1: be healthy for the first time all a year. I

1221
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 1: think they're gonna have their opening day opening game roster

1222
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: fully healthy for the first time since Week one. You

1223
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:10,799
Speaker 1: know they're gonna get their defense, tackle back, their entire secondary.

1224
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 1: Their offensive line was a mess last week, but they

1225
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 1: have two first round potential offensive tackles. Lark Johnson was

1226
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:18,240
Speaker 1: rusty in his first game back. I think their offense

1227
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:20,879
Speaker 1: line will play significantly better it getst a ferocious Penn

1228
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 1: State front seven. Look, Iowa was defense is legit. Their

1229
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 1: offense was just sloppy. Turnovers, penalties all uncharacteristic. I think

1230
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 1: this is a coin flip game. I took four in

1231
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 1: a second a heartbeat. Penn State still, you know, has

1232
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 1: a lot to prove to me. They're way better than

1233
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 1: I thought after what I saw against Maryland. But this

1234
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:43,840
Speaker 1: is an excellent Iowa defense, great offensive line, experience, quarterback

1235
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,399
Speaker 1: with a you know, freshman QB for Penn State going

1236
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: into Kinnick at night. I'm on Iowa plus four. You

1237
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 1: like it or not?

1238
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it.

1239
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 4: I mean they beat themselves last week, you know, and

1240
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 4: Iowa has not allowed They're the only team of the

1241
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:56,879
Speaker 4: nation that is not allowed to rush over twenty yards

1242
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 4: a season. The only team in the nation that's very impressed.

1243
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 4: I make this game more closer to a pick. They

1244
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 4: gonna make a Penn Sate minus one. Pen s really

1245
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 4: hasn't played anybody. They have a yards per played differential.

1246
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 4: It's close to four. Love the defense. The defense is legit.

1247
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 4: Both teams are top ten of red zones scoring percentage.

1248
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 4: So there may be an overbed come in on this

1249
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 4: because both teams are converting every time they get past

1250
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:18,359
Speaker 4: the twenty yard line.

1251
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 1: Yep. And keep your eye on the weather. You know,

1252
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:24,800
Speaker 1: we could have wind. It's gonna depended by a couple hours.

1253
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:26,840
Speaker 1: But you know, at some periods during the day on

1254
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 1: Saturday in Iowa City, there's wind's gonna be like twenty

1255
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 1: five miles per hour consistently. Might die down at night,

1256
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 1: but we'll have you covered on the Action app all right,

1257
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, let's go three and out.

1258
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,240
Speaker 3: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1259
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,760
Speaker 1: Let's start on first down and talk Friday night lights.

1260
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 1: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts, Let's go play

1261
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 1: some football. I know a lot of people are very,

1262
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 1: very interested to know why you're backing your boy, dan Enos.

1263
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 1: I'll start in that Miami Virginia game. Miami two to

1264
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:04,600
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite over under down to

1265
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:07,360
Speaker 1: forty three. I'm on the under, just like I was

1266
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:08,879
Speaker 1: on the under in the Syracuse game, in a game

1267
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 1: that I thought both defensive lines would dominate. I think

1268
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 1: the same thing's gonna happen on Friday night in Miami. Look,

1269
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:19,680
Speaker 1: Miami's been a dumpster fire for one reason. Their offensive line.

1270
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:23,280
Speaker 1: It has been awful. They are one hundred and thirtieth

1271
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 1: in passing down sack right, They've allowed the most sacks

1272
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 1: in the country, twenty five. Their sack percentage it's at

1273
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 1: an AS nine fourteen point seven to one percent. Only

1274
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:35,919
Speaker 1: USF is worse. They've allowed forty five tackles for loss.

1275
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 1: That's bottom ten of the nation. Why is that bad

1276
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 1: against Virginia, Well, they bring a ton of pressure. They

1277
00:54:40,880 --> 00:54:43,359
Speaker 1: always have Bryce Hall in the corner and he can

1278
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 1: lock down a receiver and that enables them to do

1279
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 1: a lot upfront. They bring pressure from all over. Virginia

1280
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 1: is actually second in the nation with four point eight

1281
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 1: sacks per game, trailing only Penn State. They lead FBS

1282
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 1: with ninety three hurries, tied with Temple and UCF and

1283
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 1: they lead the country with one hundred and thirty pressures.

1284
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:01,359
Speaker 1: Their top five in passing down sack right, so they

1285
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 1: should just be in the backfield all day now. Perry

1286
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 1: is getting the start from Miami, which I think is

1287
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: good since he can scramble more. I think that's going

1288
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 1: to have to be a lot of Miami's offense. But

1289
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 1: on the flip side, Virginia's offensive line has really struggled

1290
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 1: as well, and that's not good against Miami's defensive front.

1291
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 1: Virginia's also outside the top one hundred and almost all

1292
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:21,240
Speaker 1: the categories I mentioned for Miami's offensive line, and Miami's

1293
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 1: just a lead at getting in the backfield. These are

1294
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 1: also two top ten rush defenses, so I don't know

1295
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 1: how either team's really going to move the ball. You

1296
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 1: have two questionable field goal kickers on top of that,

1297
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,000
Speaker 1: I will say, and I'll let you get it on

1298
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 1: your argument here. You know to back Miami. You're buying

1299
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 1: them at a good spot. You're buying them low because

1300
00:55:39,239 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 1: of their record. And look, they lost the game to

1301
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 1: North Carolina. They out gained them by one hundred. They

1302
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 1: lost to VA Tech. They turned it over I don't

1303
00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 1: know four times the first four plays or whatever it was,

1304
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 1: they out gained them by a time. So you know

1305
00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 1: they've had some bad luck. But I just feel more

1306
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:55,439
Speaker 1: comfortable with the under I lean Miami, maybe I'll add them,

1307
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:58,439
Speaker 1: but I just think this is a defensive rock fight.

1308
00:55:58,719 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 1: What do you see?

1309
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 4: You may be using out in Nikosy Perry pretty quick

1310
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 4: tomorrow night if this thing doesn't stay under. So I yeah,

1311
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 4: the game guy that we made for this, I started

1312
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:09,400
Speaker 4: off by saying there will be blood. Both these offensive

1313
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 4: lines are outside the top one hundred and sack rate,

1314
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 4: and both the two defenses are top twenty five and

1315
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 4: a halvoc I mean it's going to be ugly. The

1316
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,359
Speaker 4: new turnover change that didn't come out at the last

1317
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 4: home game, that should make an appearance here. So this week,

1318
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:24,880
Speaker 4: Jared Williams, you know, he left practice. We didn't know

1319
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 4: his health. He had a really rough game. He had

1320
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 4: to be relieved by Nikosi Perry. We don't know if

1321
00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 4: it was inefficiency, and Nikosi Perry looked better than decent,

1322
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,719
Speaker 4: better than the guy, the freshman that we remember last

1323
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:36,479
Speaker 4: year that was you know, had the ball on the carpet.

1324
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 4: I remember that North Carolina game. I think he put

1325
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 4: the ball on the ground at least six times, so

1326
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:41,919
Speaker 4: at four hundred and twenty two yards through for four

1327
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 4: t ds and just had a single. I int, that's

1328
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 4: not the Nakosi Perry that we're used to. I know,

1329
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 4: it's a one game sample and he's a year older,

1330
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 4: and he's going to get to start here because we

1331
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:51,440
Speaker 4: don't know if it's injury and they say it's an

1332
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 4: upper body extremity. But the thing that shocked me out

1333
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 4: of all these stats that I don't because I'm not

1334
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 4: looking to back Danny knows, I never am, but the

1335
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 4: Hurricanes are eleven than passing yards per game. They're twelfth

1336
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:06,280
Speaker 4: interceptions of greater than twenty yards. Miami's an explosive pass offense.

1337
00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 4: That's something I didn't I mean, we haven't said that

1338
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 4: in years, not since you and I went and saw

1339
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 4: them play. We you and I were in Vegas at

1340
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 4: the win watching them play Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl.

1341
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:15,320
Speaker 4: We haven't seen an explosive passing it out of the

1342
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 4: Hurricanes in quite some time. But here they are, you know,

1343
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 4: with some pretty you know stats that kind of we're

1344
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:22,600
Speaker 4: eye popping about how far they've been able to throw

1345
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:24,520
Speaker 4: down the field. Now, is that Jaron Williams, Is that

1346
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 4: Danny Nos's game plan? All I know is the kcy

1347
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 4: Perry came in relief and still three for four hundred

1348
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 4: and twenty two yards. And if you look at Virginia's

1349
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,360
Speaker 4: front seven, they're fantastic at stopping the run, one of

1350
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 4: the best in the nation at sacrate. They're going to

1351
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 4: tear this offensive line apart, but they're one of the

1352
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:40,640
Speaker 4: lowest rates in acc defensively. When it comes to containing

1353
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:43,640
Speaker 4: pass explosiveness, they have been hit deep. You know, you

1354
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 4: could argue that that was going against Ian Book or

1355
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 4: some of the better quarterbacks, but I mean, Virginia has

1356
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 4: given up the big pass and that's what Miami's been

1357
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 4: And if you listen to this you Know podcast, you

1358
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:55,280
Speaker 4: know for the last few years, you know, if there's

1359
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 4: an explosiveness factor that one team can exploit, it's usually

1360
00:57:57,800 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 4: the side that I'm going to bet on and if

1361
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 4: the Kozy Perry can, please, for the love of God,

1362
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 4: when I have money on you not turn the ball over,

1363
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:06,080
Speaker 4: then this should be this should be Oh take it,

1364
00:58:06,080 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 4: I can take to the window.

1365
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 1: Let's move on to pac twelve after dark on Friday night,

1366
00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 1: and that's Oregon Colorado ten pm Eastern in Eugene. Oregon's

1367
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 1: a twenty one point favorite. Look, this number looks large

1368
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 1: on the surface, you know, for an Oregon team that's

1369
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 1: just not really scoring. They're just shutting everyone down. They've

1370
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 1: allowed one touchdown in four games since the Auburn game.

1371
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 1: Their defense is playing just outrageously good, just at a

1372
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 1: level that we don't usually see in the Pact. Well

1373
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 1: sometimes from Washington, but this, I mean, they're just excellent

1374
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 1: against the pass, excellent against their run. The Colorado defense

1375
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:41,600
Speaker 1: is the complete opposite. Oregon is allowing get this, three

1376
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 1: point nine per play, right, that's top five in the nation.

1377
00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 1: Colorado is almost three four yards yards higher six point eight.

1378
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 1: That's one hundred and twenty second of the country. They're

1379
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 1: allowing nine point five yards per pass attempt, that's bottom

1380
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 1: five in the country. Or Arizona through for four hundred

1381
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: last week against them, you know, they've allowed twenty three

1382
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 1: passes of twenty plus yards bottom twenty in a nation.

1383
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,440
Speaker 1: They're one of only five teams to allow five at

1384
00:59:04,520 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: least five completions of fifty plus yards. That's you know

1385
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 1: them Georgia, Southern u CLA, and Eastern Michigan right around five,

1386
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 1: and then New Mexico's allowed ten somehow, you know. So

1387
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 1: it's just really bad. Even when they won against Colorida

1388
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: State and their opener, they gave up five hundred and

1389
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 1: five yards and we're out gained in that game. And

1390
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 1: it's not just all mel Tucker's fall. They lost a

1391
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 1: ton of pieces from their defense last year and they've

1392
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: been crushed by injuries. You know, their best player in

1393
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 1: the secondary, ou he's questionable. He went down against Arizona.

1394
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 1: So did Jalen Sammy. That was their fourth and fifth

1395
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 1: starters opening day starters that they've lost on defense, Mustafa Johnson.

1396
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:42,400
Speaker 1: You know Aaron Maddocks, their free safety, cornerback Chris Miller.

1397
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,800
Speaker 1: Last week against Arizona. One of their guy who's playing

1398
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:47,560
Speaker 1: safety in the second half is a kid who was

1399
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 1: competing for the quarterback position in camp. It's a mess.

1400
00:59:50,920 --> 00:59:52,960
Speaker 1: If these guys can't go, and melt Tucker doesn't say

1401
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:56,080
Speaker 1: anything about injuries. So if these guys can't go, en

1402
00:59:56,160 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 1: Chindall doesn't go the star wide receiver for Colorado, I'm

1403
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 1: laying it with Oregon. Oregon's offense is due for a

1404
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 1: breakout game. They got all the receivers back last week.

1405
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:05,120
Speaker 1: They were a little rusty, and they were going against

1406
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:08,520
Speaker 1: an excellent cal secondary second game back. If all these

1407
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:11,320
Speaker 1: guys from Colorid o'kick go, this is a Herbert game

1408
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 1: where he goes off. The Oregon offense explodes against Colorida defense.

1409
01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:17,560
Speaker 1: It just has nothing. If all these guys can't play,

1410
01:00:17,880 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 1: and if they're also missing Chanel, who's one of the

1411
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 1: most explosive receivers in the Pact, well, so it is

1412
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 1: dependent on injuries. But I'll be playing Oregon if all

1413
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:26,880
Speaker 1: those guys are out. What do you say?

1414
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:27,520
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1415
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:29,560
Speaker 4: And I think the line is already incorporating that in

1416
01:00:29,600 --> 01:00:31,560
Speaker 4: because I make the line fifty, I make the line

1417
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 4: fifteen and a half, and now we've steamed up to.

1418
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 3: Twenty one as of this recording.

1419
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised to see his team a little

1420
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 4: bit farther because there is a ton of money that

1421
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:40,800
Speaker 4: has come in on Oregon. It's the reason why the

1422
01:00:40,880 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 4: number has gotten that high, and I think they assumed Chanalton.

1423
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 4: Then the players on defense are out. I don't know

1424
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 4: how to make a case for Colorado. I could say

1425
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 4: the line is inflated. I could tell you that their

1426
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:50,919
Speaker 4: top twenty five and third down conversion, their top thirty

1427
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 4: five in red zone scoring percentage, but you got to

1428
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:55,440
Speaker 4: actually get into the red zone against organ that's the problem.

1429
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 4: I consider and tell you that they're number one in

1430
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 4: the country and field goal percentage mayb because they're kickers

1431
01:01:00,160 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 4: like thirty three. I can tell you that Oregon is

1432
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 4: like one hundred and twenty eighth the field goal percentage.

1433
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 3: It's really hard for me to.

1434
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 4: Make a case for Colorado. All I could say is

1435
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:10,440
Speaker 4: the line is completely inflated. This is probably the toughest

1436
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:12,919
Speaker 4: offense that Oregan's had to face. I mean that being said,

1437
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:17,800
Speaker 4: I believe from a total offense perspective, Auburn, cal Stanford, Nevada,

1438
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 4: they're all outside the top fifty. Colorado ranks fortieth total

1439
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:23,120
Speaker 4: in total offense. So you know, I know if they're

1440
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 4: missing chanelt that's a big piece. So those are the

1441
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 4: only things I can say to back it. I you know,

1442
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 4: if Oregon comes out stale, I mean that first half

1443
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 4: against Cals zero points, three turnovers, miss field goal, they.

1444
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 3: Have another one of those.

1445
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 4: I mean, Colorad's defense isn't near as good as Cols,

1446
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 4: but you know, if they just can't seem to get

1447
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 4: off the mark again, then this is going to be

1448
01:01:40,240 --> 01:01:42,959
Speaker 4: closer than twenty one points. But it should be maybe

1449
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 4: a low investment. As you know, these injuries can play

1450
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:47,560
Speaker 4: just a big factor here. But you know, you're right

1451
01:01:47,600 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 4: about Herbert. He needs to get he needs to have

1452
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 4: a what what we call get healthy game because they

1453
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 4: didn't have that last week. And you want to be

1454
01:01:53,440 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 4: firing on all cylinders as you go into Washington.

1455
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 1: All right, all right, so let's move on to second

1456
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 1: down and go with our favorite overdog.

1457
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 3: It's called the over to dog parlay.

1458
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:04,439
Speaker 1: For those that are new listeners. That is our favorite favorite. Look,

1459
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:06,800
Speaker 1: I hate it, but I'm going with Lane Kiffin and

1460
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic. The line got down to ten and I

1461
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:12,600
Speaker 1: had to take it. This is a great spot for

1462
01:02:12,640 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic against a completely fraudulent Middle Tennessee State team

1463
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 1: that it's they're allowing six point seven yards per play.

1464
01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:24,919
Speaker 1: That's one hundred and twentieth in the nation. We thought

1465
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:28,480
Speaker 1: this team was going to be bad, and they've been bad.

1466
01:02:28,800 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 1: Last week they got a win beat Marshall. Marshall's playing

1467
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 1: with out their top receivers. Kind of Marshall's kind of

1468
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 1: a mess right now. But in that game, Middle Tennessee

1469
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 1: State has five point dogs, won twenty four to thirteen,

1470
01:02:40,560 --> 01:02:43,680
Speaker 1: only scored thirteen points. The total yardage Marshall had five

1471
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:47,080
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy nine yards seven point one yards per play,

1472
01:02:47,360 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 1: somehow only scored thirteen points. They were they won, They

1473
01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 1: lost to fumble. They had three picks, they were zero

1474
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 1: for four in the red zone. They were two for

1475
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:58,320
Speaker 1: six on fourth down. Just a comedy of eras for

1476
01:02:58,360 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 1: Marshall and Middle Tennessee State one on. This defense is atrocious.

1477
01:03:01,960 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 1: You know, look, they beat Tennessee State forty five twenty six.

1478
01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 1: They got blown out at home by Duke, and they

1479
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,760
Speaker 1: got blown out by Iowa, Big Florida Atlantic off of

1480
01:03:09,800 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 1: a bye. Here just blows this game open. They have

1481
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:15,800
Speaker 1: reason to want to blow this open as well, and

1482
01:03:15,800 --> 01:03:17,960
Speaker 1: I think their offense will do well against It's just awful.

1483
01:03:18,000 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee State defense.

1484
01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:19,919
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1485
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:24,040
Speaker 1: Last year, Middle Tennessee State one twenty five twenty four

1486
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:29,959
Speaker 1: in Murphy's Borough on a last second touchdown by none

1487
01:03:29,960 --> 01:03:33,600
Speaker 1: other than quarterback Brent Stockstill, the quarterback the coach's son.

1488
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 1: By the way, Brent stock Still is now an assistant

1489
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 1: on Florida Atlantic, so you know, an offensive assistant. Maybe

1490
01:03:39,680 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 1: he has, you know, some intel to offer Florida Atlantic.

1491
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:44,920
Speaker 1: But really, this Middle Tennessee State team is just bad.

1492
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot for Florida Atlantic. I

1493
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:50,120
Speaker 1: might as ten the Middle Tennessee State defense, it's just hard.

1494
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:52,840
Speaker 1: So give me the als and Lane is my favorite overdog.

1495
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 1: Where are you going?

1496
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:55,160
Speaker 3: As your son? I end up on your own staff?

1497
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:57,000
Speaker 3: By the way, how does he end up in the conference?

1498
01:03:57,320 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 1: That's great? Very odd, very odd.

1499
01:03:58,920 --> 01:04:00,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm gonna go Oklahoma.

1500
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:02,640
Speaker 4: I think for everything that we talked about on the

1501
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 4: on the podcast, you know, I'll just reiterate that, I

1502
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:06,880
Speaker 4: think Jalen Hurts is not going to have a problem

1503
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:10,480
Speaker 4: with the zone read with his option. I think OU

1504
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 4: is going to roll here. Mostly the story is it

1505
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 4: going to be Jaalen Hurts or is it going to

1506
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 4: Because there's actual defense here as of last year, was

1507
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 4: just a bunch of statues standing in the back seven.

1508
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:21,840
Speaker 1: Fair enough. Before we get out of here, let's move

1509
01:04:21,880 --> 01:04:25,520
Speaker 1: on to third down, and let's go with our money

1510
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 1: line parlay.

1511
01:04:29,120 --> 01:04:34,040
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1512
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 3: money line parlay.

1513
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:39,920
Speaker 1: It's week seven. We haven't hit one yet, but our

1514
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:42,640
Speaker 1: money line underdogs, which we publish every Saturday, we've hit

1515
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:44,960
Speaker 1: one each week. So there's six and six up. I

1516
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:47,200
Speaker 1: don't know, like four units or something. Let's try to

1517
01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 1: hit one. Although I will tell you that this week,

1518
01:04:50,080 --> 01:04:53,360
Speaker 1: I'm not just going for with a small underdog, going

1519
01:04:53,400 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 1: back to what we were doing last year, and I'm just

1520
01:04:56,320 --> 01:04:58,880
Speaker 1: going with my favorite. As far as value is concerned,

1521
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:04,000
Speaker 1: I'm going with Tennessee the Vols Rocky Top. They let

1522
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 1: me down in devastating fashion last week against Georgia with

1523
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:11,560
Speaker 1: a fumble return for touchdown, that with a ref pick

1524
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:15,200
Speaker 1: that cost me two bets. But at plus two thirty

1525
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:19,960
Speaker 1: ish I had this Mississippi State team. There's just something

1526
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:22,040
Speaker 1: that's off with them. Said it early in the year

1527
01:05:22,080 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 1: that their defense is going to be a lot worse.

1528
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:26,640
Speaker 1: I mean, you lose all those first round draft picks

1529
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 1: from the defensive line. You know, Abram at safety. But

1530
01:05:30,400 --> 01:05:33,120
Speaker 1: it's worse than I thought. You know, they're giving up

1531
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:35,760
Speaker 1: six point three yards per play. It's outside the top

1532
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 1: one hundred. We're talking about a defense that last year,

1533
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:43,200
Speaker 1: just last year, led the nation at four point one. Really,

1534
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:48,640
Speaker 1: what's clicked for me is watching Auburn's offense against Florida,

1535
01:05:49,080 --> 01:05:53,040
Speaker 1: watching Kansas State after playing Mississippi, Like Kansas State and Auburn,

1536
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:55,520
Speaker 1: you know they were they're not world beaters. Kansasitate went

1537
01:05:55,520 --> 01:05:58,200
Speaker 1: to Mississippi State and won, and you know, their offense

1538
01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 1: was kind of moving the ball, and you know, Auburn

1539
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 1: shredded in Mississippi State and they couldn't even complete a

1540
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:07,000
Speaker 1: forward pass against Florida. So this defense is just world's

1541
01:06:07,280 --> 01:06:09,240
Speaker 1: worse than it was last year, and I think it's

1542
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:13,240
Speaker 1: not being accurately reflected in the market still. So I'm

1543
01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:16,520
Speaker 1: gonna take a shot with the balls at home Hungary

1544
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:18,680
Speaker 1: for a win. They did look a little better last

1545
01:06:18,680 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 1: week against Georgia for a while, and they look a

1546
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 1: lot better with Maor under center. Who's going to get

1547
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:28,080
Speaker 1: the start again this week. So give me Tennessee to

1548
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:31,240
Speaker 1: get an SEC win this week. At home against the

1549
01:06:31,280 --> 01:06:35,520
Speaker 1: Mississippi State team who's just reeling. I don't like their defense,

1550
01:06:36,080 --> 01:06:39,600
Speaker 1: and you know they're going to Tennessee for this noon kick.

1551
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:43,680
Speaker 1: They have LSU at home on deck. Baby, come out

1552
01:06:43,680 --> 01:06:45,800
Speaker 1: a little flat, give me the balles plus two thirty.

1553
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that. Pick a lot.

1554
01:06:47,120 --> 01:06:48,760
Speaker 4: I'm actually got some money on them myself, and they

1555
01:06:48,760 --> 01:06:51,400
Speaker 4: will be in my round robin parlay. As for this,

1556
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:55,360
Speaker 4: it came down between Western Kentucky and Arizona. I'm gonna

1557
01:06:55,360 --> 01:06:57,440
Speaker 4: go with Arizona. You want us to sweat late that

1558
01:06:57,520 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 4: We're gonna be sweating late on this one because this

1559
01:06:59,160 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 4: would be the last of the day and with Hawaii

1560
01:07:01,000 --> 01:07:03,160
Speaker 4: playing a boise, there won't be any Island magic going on.

1561
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:06,480
Speaker 4: But I just can't get over how bad Washington's defense is.

1562
01:07:06,520 --> 01:07:08,680
Speaker 4: I don't think we know the floor of the Washington defense.

1563
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:10,880
Speaker 4: I think we've seen the ability, or at least what

1564
01:07:10,920 --> 01:07:13,280
Speaker 4: they could. Washington can do on offense, But what they

1565
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 4: can do on offense, they can't gain as many yards

1566
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 4: as quick as Arizona can. Arizona is hitting on all

1567
01:07:17,920 --> 01:07:20,200
Speaker 4: cylinders and they've been doing it without Khliltate running. I

1568
01:07:20,280 --> 01:07:22,480
Speaker 4: did not expect when I bought a couple of tickets

1569
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:23,480
Speaker 4: in Vegas, had a couple.

1570
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:25,280
Speaker 3: I had one Washington under nine and a half.

1571
01:07:25,320 --> 01:07:27,280
Speaker 4: I didn't think that that would cash by the time

1572
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:30,000
Speaker 4: midterm exams came around. But I think it's going to cash.

1573
01:07:30,080 --> 01:07:33,440
Speaker 4: With Arizona in Tucson late at night on Saturday.

1574
01:07:33,240 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 1: True pac twelve after dark, I think the under dog

1575
01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:38,439
Speaker 1: zone defeated and against the spread Impact twelve after dark

1576
01:07:38,520 --> 01:07:40,800
Speaker 1: so far this year. So there you have it. The

1577
01:07:41,440 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 1: while we're starting at noon, the pressures on me with

1578
01:07:44,040 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 1: the Vaalves to get a win, and then we'd be

1579
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:52,440
Speaker 1: finishing off after midnight Eastern with the Arizona Wildcats. That

1580
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 1: pays Tennessee and Arizona pays. It feels like I should

1581
01:07:55,200 --> 01:08:00,120
Speaker 1: be a college basketball parlay. Well, you're gonna get into one.

1582
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:02,240
Speaker 4: You're gonna get Arizona's a dog in a college basketball

1583
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:02,960
Speaker 4: It's almost.

1584
01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 1: That time of year. It's almost under a month. It's

1585
01:08:05,000 --> 01:08:06,720
Speaker 1: about pays about nine to one. We'll have a write

1586
01:08:06,800 --> 01:08:08,040
Speaker 1: up on it up on the Action app and Action

1587
01:08:08,120 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 1: network dot com. Thanks for listening, Thanks for joining me, Colin.

1588
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 1: Make sure you unsubscribe, subscribe, tell a friend rate review.

1589
01:08:16,080 --> 01:08:19,560
Speaker 1: You know the drill we'll catch y' all on Saturday

1590
01:08:19,560 --> 01:08:22,160
Speaker 1: morning on the Live show ten thirty am Eastern. We'll

1591
01:08:22,160 --> 01:08:24,320
Speaker 1: tweet out a link and then we'll catch you right

1592
01:08:24,360 --> 01:08:28,200
Speaker 1: back here on Monday. Don't forget about the voicemails. Cry, scream, bitch, yell,

1593
01:08:28,439 --> 01:08:30,000
Speaker 1: whatever you need to do to get it out on

1594
01:08:30,040 --> 01:08:33,640
Speaker 1: your bets. Yell at us, curse us. Don't forget. The

1595
01:08:33,680 --> 01:08:37,840
Speaker 1: phone number is five seven five six five fives years

1596
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:39,719
Speaker 1: six sixty four. You can find it on my Twitter

1597
01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 1: at stucky too. Thanks again for listening. We'll catch you

1598
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 1: all later. Cheers, peace out,