WEBVTT - Stock Rally Is More A Sign of Relief Than Cheering Gridlock 0:00:05.800 --> 0:00:08.720 Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:11.520 Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.120 bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:17.840 you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.720 or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P M L 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:32.600 Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot Com. The 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:36.520 knee jerk reaction is gridlock is good for risk assets? 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:39.400 Is that the right reaction? Leo Groshowski, now joining US 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:43.000 chief investment Officer at bny Melon Wealth Management, what's your 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:46.000 take on that? Well, I think today we're seeing a 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:50.040 relief Rallie and most participants in the markets are aware 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:55.960 that UM, a Republican president combined with a divided Congress 0:00:56.840 --> 0:00:59.840 isn't a bad combination for future market performance. It's not, 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:01.720 in a certainly the best, but it's by no means 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:04.039 the worst. So I think we're seeing that today. There's 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:08.040 obviously a relief that it's behind us. We've got some 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:11.680 certainty and UM, and again, most market participants know that 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:14.440 we're in a period both seasonally and for the next 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:18.479 couple of years that's normally pretty favorable for the equity market. 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.240 Do you see any risk to the tax overhaul that 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:25.720 past last year, not with the gains that the Republicans 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:28.559 picked up in the in the Senate, And I think 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:31.000 the market you could see this a little bit in 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:33.360 the bond market today, right. I think this gridlock is 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:35.440 good is probably showing up as much in the bond 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:38.120 market as the stock market because of what you were 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:40.360 talking about in your earlier segment with respect to debt 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:44.000 and deficits. Right, the chances of tax cut two point 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:48.120 oh or significant significantly diminished, I think, and the bond 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:50.880 market doesn't mind that, right. I think it's it's stay 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.440 the course with the fiscal policy that's been put in place, 0:01:53.640 --> 0:01:56.680 but don't necessarily add a lot more. Of course, we 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.160 did hear from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that they 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:02.320 might work across the aisle on infrastructure spending. Do you 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:06.120 think that's lip service at this point? I think that's 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:10.480 the big one of the two eyes, right, There's there's infrastructure, 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:13.400 and then there's going to be investigation. And I hope 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:17.120 there's more talk around infrastructure than there is around investigations. 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:20.520 I think the market would be favorably disposed to bar 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:25.120 bipartisan support for infrastructure, the market being equities bonds perhaps 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:28.240 not so much correct correct the I think two pims 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.400 earlier point. You know how we pay for all of 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:35.600 this with a trillion three about to be floated right 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:40.040 in in bond debt at higher prices. Um. I think 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:42.840 that's something the bond market right now is breathing a 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.160 bit of a cyber lead for the time being. Any 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:48.440 thoughts on trade policy because that seems to be one 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:55.560 issue which you could get Democrats and Republicans together and 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:59.680 a China bashing trade war that looks like something they 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:01.919 both agree on. Yeah, And I think the good news there, 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:06.080 pim is is the markets become more prepared for, you know, 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:09.400 a longer war of words on the trade front, so 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:13.919 that I would put in the positive surprise um um column. 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:16.040 And I also think there's gonna be a lot of 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:17.880 focus here towards the end of the month on the 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:20.919 G twenty, on the G twenty meeting. Um. So through 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:24.600 all this election, right the key drivers for the market, earnings, 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.760 interest rates, economy, no changes in the b n Y 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:30.440 melon view with respect to any of those, and the 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:33.240 serious issues that we have to grapple with trade and 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:36.680 monetary policy. Right, they're still they're still with us well, 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:39.720 which raises my question going back to the first question, 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.920 which is is the appropriate reaction to buy stocks here 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:47.040 if trade is still the potential concern, that's not something 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.360 that will get held up by gridlock. I think you're 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.920 seeing part of the relief rally is I think also 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:55.640 a return to a bounce from an oversold condition. I 0:03:55.680 --> 0:04:00.000 think the market overreacted to fundamentals that really hadn't changed 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:03.040 that much. It was really just the focus on, you know, 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:05.960 the Fed policy and this longer lasting, you know trade. 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:09.800 I think the underlying market drop backdrop is still, in 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:14.560 my view, very equity friendly with respect to earnings, interest rates, inflation. 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:18.400 Trade is a cloud that continues to build the longer 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:20.480 it goes on, because I learned a long time ago 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.960 that longer lasting trade and tariffs have an S word 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:28.080 associate associated with them, and that's stagflation. And that's that's 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:32.960 an environment that the market likes least as far as 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.120 the outcome of the election, that's one thing, but we 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.320 still have all these unresolved issues to investors just kind 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:41.640 of shrug their shoulders. What's the biggest question You're getting 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.839 right now from investors. You know, we touched on it 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.000 a little bit earlier. UM, we're getting a lot of 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:50.760 questions around debt, debt and deficits. I think in the 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.680 wealth management business, you know, many of our clients are 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:58.880 correctly thinking in years, decades, multigenerational wealth transfer right and 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:02.320 so interest thing, as opposed to many market participants focusing 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:04.040 on day to day, week to week, quarter to quarter. 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:07.080 If you're really taking a multi year outlook, the debt 0:05:07.200 --> 0:05:09.360 and deficit picture and how are we going to pay 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:11.200 for it and who's going to pay for it is 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:13.880 weighing I think more heavily on our client's minds correctly, 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:16.960 particularly given the uptick and interest rates. Thanks very much 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.520 for being with us. Always a pleasure, Leo Groshowski. He 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.920 is the chief investment officer for b n y Melon 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:26.720 Wealth Management. Giving us a take on the results of 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:44.640 the midterm elections and what it means for investors. We've 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:46.479 been listening to send a majority at leader at Mitch 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:51.360 McConnell address reporters today after the mid term elections, talking 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:55.560 about the potential for both parties to work together on 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:59.159 infrastructure spending, as well as tackling what he called the 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:02.800 healthcare crisis. Here with us to talk about what we 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:05.720 just heard and what it might mean for both sides 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.120 of Congress going forward. Steve Dennis joins US Now Center 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:11.720 reporter for Bloomberg News. Uh, Steve, what was your big 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:15.080 takeaway from that address? You know, I think that was 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.839 a very happy Mitch McConnell. There was a lot of 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:22.240 nervousness the last few weeks that the Democrats would be 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.640 able to maybe even pick up a seat or hold 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:28.640 serve and and and the fact that Republicans are now 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.760 looking to expand their majority by several seats is Uh, 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.760 it's huge for for everything that he cares about, but 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:40.080 especially the judiciary. If there's another Supreme Court opening, it's 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.320 gonna be a cakewalk. It's not going to be this 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:48.000 excruciating battle where Susan Collins and Lisa mckowski had to 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:51.240 be on board and and uh and his members got 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:55.200 beat up for months. Uh, you know, and so you know, 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:57.839 as far as actually the agenda, I thought it was 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.080 interesting he came out and said that he's all he 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:04.320 started discussing an infrastructure package with Nancy Pelosi, and he 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.880 also said prescription drugs might be an area where there 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:12.080 could be bipartisan agreement to save money. Now that's not 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:13.720 necessarily what you want to hear if you're in the 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:16.840 pharmaceutical industry. You know, they were pretty happy they knocked 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:20.600 off Claire McCaskill in Missouri. She had been a thorn 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:24.600 in the side of the big pharmaceutical companies. But you know, 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:27.880 we have a huge deficit issue. That's one thing that 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:31.160 he didn't doesn't think that there's gonna be much bipartisan 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:34.280 agreement on dealing with the deficit anytime soon. But if 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:37.239 there's one area where they seem to have both sides 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:39.680 saying we need to save some money for the taxpayers 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:43.720 and for people, it's gonna be prescription drugs. Um. So 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.560 it is a very happy miss McConnell. I mean, this 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:49.120 is this is about as good a result as you 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:53.240 could have mapped out with a president who is unpopular 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:55.880 enough to lose the House. You know, the fact that 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:59.240 they're winning, uh looks like you know, there's still some 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:04.280 votes out, and but they're winning Florida, they're winning Missouri big, 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:08.000 they're winning Indiana big, they're winning a North Dakota big. 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:11.360 These are not small victories. And if they hold on 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:15.679 on Arizona in Montana. Uh, and this Florida recount looks 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:19.640 like it's you know, Nelson's behind by forty votes. It's 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:23.880 not likely to to change this. This has long you know, 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:27.600 Miss McConnell is all about the long game. If they 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:30.840 actually get to fifty four fifty five seats, it's almost 0:08:30.840 --> 0:08:33.560 impossible for the Democrats to come back and take back 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.040 the Senate in you know, even if they take the presidency, 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.559 Mitch McConnell might be staring right there preventing them from 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.600 doing all the stuff they want to do. Um, and 0:08:43.640 --> 0:08:46.520 maybe even blocking Supreme Court justices that they want to 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:49.240 put up. So Uh, this is a this is a 0:08:49.400 --> 0:08:56.439 very big, very happy Mitch McConnell. This morning, you mentioned 0:08:56.440 --> 0:09:01.439 the deficit and infrastructure spending. How is anyone going to 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:05.120 pay for this? You know, that's always been the rub, right. 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:07.960 You know, every once in a while you can find 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:11.320 stuff under the cushions of your couch. Uh. You know, 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:15.800 I remember there's always ideas on infrastructure spending. Nobody ever 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:18.320 wants to raise the gas tax, right, I mean every 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:20.760 once in a while. I mean last year Trump said, 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:23.640 for a hot minute, said maybe he'd consider raising the 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:27.520 gas tax, but it's the most unpopular tax and generally 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:29.839 people don't want to raise taxes. So maybe you can 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:34.200 find things like oil drilling revenue, you know, uh, can 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:39.560 can you give Republicans something like energy resources or sailing 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:42.680 off land or something, and you give the Democrats what 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.320 they want, which is roads and bridges and transit and 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:49.040 and all that stuff. So, uh, you know, there there 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:52.439 are ways to reach these biparson deals if you don't 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.000 care about the deficit as well, you just do what 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.640 they've been doing the last two years. You know, the 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:02.560 deficit has been expanding dramatic medically under a Republican watch. 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:05.040 Part of it was the tax got a huge part 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:08.040 of it. Where these bipartisan spending deals where they basically 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:09.959 took out the credit card and said, we're going to 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:12.480 increase spending by a hundred and fifty billion a year, 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:14.880 and you know, our grandkids are gonna pay for it. 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.600 They didn't say, oh, here's our it's gonna get more 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:19.719 expensive because interest rates are going up. And and it's 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.120 gonna get more expensive because interest rates are going up. 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:25.920 You know, you could see where it's a very good chance, 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:29.079 especially if interest rates keep going up, uh that we're 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:32.400 gonna have a trillion dollar deficit this fiscal year and 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:36.720 one point one next fiscal year. And you know, voters 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.200 so far have not been willing to come in and say, hey, 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:42.760 we care about that issue. Good luck trying to find 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:46.000 that trillion dollars in the cushions of the couch. Thanks 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:51.160 very much, Stephen Dennis, congressional reporter for Bloomberg. Appreciate your work. 0:10:51.240 --> 0:11:08.840 Looking forward to more. We are awaiting comments from President 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:13.440 Trump addressing the nation after the midterm election results. Rolled 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:15.840 in joining us now to talk about what we've been 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:17.800 seeing and what to expect from the speech. Billy House 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.040 joins is now congressional porter for Bloomberg, as well as 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:23.800 Tolu alorinipa White House correspondent for Bloomberg. We have both 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:25.640 of them in the flesh here in our eleven three 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:28.000 oh studios. It is very exciting. Billy. I want to 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:30.000 start with you, how long do you think this is 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:32.480 going to go? Because the last time President Trump held 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.719 a conference like this it went for more than an hour. 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.360 I suspect it's going to go fairly lengthy. He's got 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.840 a lot of things to say, including bashing already Democrats 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.240 for what he was describing as an intended reign of terror, 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:49.400 of investigations that'll take up a lot of time. Yeah, 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:54.360 alright to lou And the President likes to change the narrative. 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:56.600 The narrative right now is that he lost the House 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.040 and that he is seen as an unpopular president, and 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:01.720 this press conference is an opportunity for him to use 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:03.680 the bully pulpit of the White House, which he uses 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:06.319 on a regular basis, to change the story. He may 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.439 talk about the elections and try to put a positive 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.280 spin on it, but I would caution the listeners to 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:13.960 get ready for other topics to come up. He may 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:15.679 want to talk about North Korea. You may want to 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.480 talk about his weekend trip to Paris this weekend when 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:22.480 he's going to be meeting with Vladimir Putin. Possibly there 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.480 are a number of different issues that the President may 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:27.000 throw out there. He may talk about getting rid of 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.160 some cabinet officials or announced a new U n ambassador, 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.520 anything to change the story, change the narrative, get it 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:36.240 on a positive message for the president, and have fewer 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.800 people talking about all these investigations. It's the penis that 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:42.440 are going to be flying around because he lost the House. Billy, 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:48.400 what kind of issues do you think that House Democrats 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:52.600 can present to the President and to Republicans that they 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:59.000 would rather not be presented with that Republicans would not well, Uh, 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.320 Jerry's kind only a congressman from Northern Virginia whose chair 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.480 of the Subcommittee on Oversea Government Oversight, says it's going 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.920 to seem like Democrats are drunk crazy with subpoenas, but 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:12.400 he points out that that's in comparison to Republicans that 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:16.920 Democrats say basically gave the Trump administration a pass. So 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:23.920 everything from um Trump's border policies to his family financial 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:32.360 ties with Deutsche Bank to uh everything on immigration. Uh, 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:37.040 a whole gambit as Democrats take over all these committees 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.800 that have been from democ where Democrats been frustrated by 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:43.080 chairman Republican chairman refusing to issue any subpoenas on anything. 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:45.079 To Lou, I want to pick up on something that 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.880 you were just talking about, which is that right now, 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:51.120 the narrative is that this is a loss for President Trump. 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.560 Is that narrative correct? I mean, yes, the Democrats did 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.720 flip the House, but the Senate actually got even more 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.160 Republican majority, and this is really the outcome that people 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:04.200 had expected, if not, frankly a little bit better than 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:06.640 expected in the Senate for the Republicans. Now, yeah, this 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:08.920 was a mixed result in both sides have something that 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:10.960 they can capitalize on. And I think that's part of 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:12.640 the reason you're seeing the President come out and do 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:15.120 a press conference. He wants his narrative to get out there. 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.440 You're probably going to see more from the Democrats. Nancy 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.280 Pelosi will probably be doing a press conference of her 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.160 own where she gets out her narrative. But it's we 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:27.600 can't underestimate the impact of having the House flipped to 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:30.400 the Democrats, having Democrats in power in the House for 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.000 the first time in eight years, and all of the 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.680 various investigatory powers that they're they're going to have as 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.040 a result of having the chairmanships of various committees, having 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:44.200 the subpoena power, having the ability to call Cabinet secretaries 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:48.480 up before Capitol Hill and change the narrative and dominate 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:51.960 the media with that subpoena power, and with that ability 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:57.440 to u change the national conversation. It's something Democrats did 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.240 not have when they were out in the wilderness. They 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:01.360 were in the minority in the House and the Senate 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.600 and the governor's races. Now that they have won a 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:07.440 number of these races in the House, they have much 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.200 more power to shape the national narrative. And that's probably 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:11.880 what we're going to see later today with this, with 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:17.560 these dueling news conferences, Billy, the narrative, though having to 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.920 do with judicial appointments, doesn't seem to have changed. Indeed, 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:24.760 we spoke earlier with Steven Dennis of Bloomberg and he said, 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.960 it's like it's it's possible that you can get Mitch McConnell. 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:30.560 He'll be he could be standing up there in five 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:35.400 years saying the same thing about other Supreme Court or 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:39.840 appointees to the federal bench. Absolutely. Uh. And so while 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:43.960 that uh will likely be continued winds in the views 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:47.960 of many Republicans, UH, they will cast what the House 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:54.240 Democrats are doing is harassment of the administration. Talu. I 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.800 wouldn't just zoom out a little bit and talk about 0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:00.200 what sort of message the Democratic Party can take from 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:04.360 this election, because frankly, it showed that there wasn't really 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.280 as big of a blue wave as many people had expected, 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:10.480 and that just sort of hatred for Donald Trump among 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:14.120 people who swing left wasn't enough to give them a 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.680 majority in both how both sides of Congress. I'm just 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.440 wondering what does this say for who people will look 0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:24.680 to pick for the presidential election. Yeah, there's a lot 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:26.160 of the Democrats are going to have to do a 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:28.440 lot of soul searching, in part because they put out 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.600 a number of different types of candidates, diverse candidates, progressive candidates, 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:36.880 more moderate candidates, and it's hard to really get a 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.600 clear message in terms of who one. We did see 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:42.200 some of the progressive candidates win, but not a large 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:44.360 number of them. A number of them ended up going down. 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.840 We also saw a lot of the moderate candidates either 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:50.560 go down trying to win in Trump districts, districts that 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:54.560 were heavily Republican and just not being able to pass 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:57.960 that margin. So, uh, We've seen the Democrats try a 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:01.120 number of different strategies and in this race, and in 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:05.240 some cases it worked, I think, uh, having women run 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:07.680 and ended up being successful for them. There's gonna be 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.600 a record number of women in Congress, and that may 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:13.159 be something they look at in and trying to increase that. 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:16.400 When the margin with the women's vote, which was pretty 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.880 impressive for Democrats this time around, in part because President 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:22.959 Trump is toxic to a lot of female voters. That 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:24.840 may be something they try to hone in on, But 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:28.840 trying to convert other Trump voters to Democrats was not 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:30.840 something that they were very successful at, and that's part 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.360 of the reason that they had trouble. Uh, and they 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:37.040 lost a number of seats in the Senate. Billy Well, 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:40.000 Aside from presidential aspirants, I would have to say that 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:44.879 the party generally is looking to tiptoe around those larger 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:49.280 questions of impeachment that many of outside Congress are demanding 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:54.040 they pursue. Uh. So whild Republicans are stirring the pots 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:57.480 saying that's what this Democratic House is going to do, 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:02.040 and other witch hunts. Uh. You already see Nancy Pelosi 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:05.600 and her lieutenants insisting that they're gonna wait for the 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:09.760 Special Council Robert Bohler uh and not shred into territory 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:13.480 that maybe he won't even find or even report. Well, 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:16.159 as we wait for President Donald Trump to give a 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.399 post election news conference, do you believe that there will 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:22.440 be anything done during the lane duck session? Between now 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:26.600 and when the next Congress takes its seats, well in 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:30.920 terms of just figuring out the leadership of both parties 0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:33.920 in the House, UH, even before you get to policy 0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:37.320 and in the in the short time they have UH, 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.679 it's assumed Nancy Pelosi will be the House Speaker, but 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:44.120 she UH is going to have to do some maneuvering. Obviously, 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:47.400 some of the newly elected incoming freshman members have said 0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:53.560 they would not support her. And with her caucus going 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:58.760 to UH number anywhere from to to eighteen to nineteen 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.200 to twenty nine, I think at twenty two now, she 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.560 can't go to the floor to be elected speaker unless 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:07.240 she secures two in eighteen votes. So even before we 0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:09.199 get to that, they've got to resolve their leadership thing. 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:11.920 On the other side, Kevin McCarthy is the majority leader. 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:15.280 He's the number. He's lost the majority. I mean, roral 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.520 Republicans really like the majority leader who lost the majority 0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:20.240 as their new minority leader. Who have to wait to 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:23.239 see you know, I wanna Talu talk a little bit 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.880 about turnout because I know that in my district there 0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:28.760 was a line out the door at six twenty a m. 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:32.199 And I saw photographs on social media and elsewhere of 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.199 lines that were similar around the country. Do we have 0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.159 a final tally of just how big the turnout was 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:42.119 for this particular midterm election. Yeah, this is a record 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:44.760 turnout election in terms of the number of people who 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:48.280 turned out to vote. The earliest numbers official totals that 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:52.800 I've seen has turnout above hundred and eleven million Americans, 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:55.119 and that's compared to I think about eighty four million. 0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:57.880 Can you give us a sense though, of the proportion 0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:01.280 of the population, because, I mean, the population is rising, 0:20:01.320 --> 0:20:04.520 so you expected, Yeah, that is, that is true, but 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:09.600 it's a it's a huge jump, almost thirty from and uh, 0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:12.119 even though we've had population growth, we haven't had it 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:15.560 at that rate rate, so definitely a higher number. I 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.080 think there's still numbers coming in, So I don't want 0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:22.159 to say specifically what the turnout rate was, but you 0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:25.240 have to remember, Ineen, we were at historically low turnout 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:27.440 in the you know, thirties and forties and a number 0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:29.000 of different states. I think we're going to be well 0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:32.800 above fifty in several states, places like Florida saw a 0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:35.760 huge turnout in the high fifties and the in the 0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:39.200 sixties and some counties, uh turn out that you don't 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:42.280 normally get during a mid term, not necessarily presidential level 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:46.359 um turnout, but definitely really high turnout. And not only 0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:50.119 turn out among Democrats. We saw a number of rural 0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:53.240 voters turn out very high high rates. Normally people think 0:20:53.280 --> 0:20:55.560 that high turnout is better for Democrats because you have 0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:57.360 new voters, you have younger voters, you have a more 0:20:57.400 --> 0:21:01.119 diverse electorate. And in this case, we saw a number 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:04.359 of Trump supporters, a number of rural voters turnout in 0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:07.160 very high numbers, and that was able. That was part 0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:10.200 of the reason that the Florida race ended up being 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:13.240 so close, and part of the reason why the Republicans 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:16.399 are favored to win in those races. Do the results, Billy, 0:21:16.440 --> 0:21:18.439 just to echo the fact that the divisions in the 0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:22.480 country remain so deep, I think they do. I think 0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:26.959 the large turnout actually was reflective of excitement among the extremes. 0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:30.159 And therefore, for instance, in the House, some of the 0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:37.000 moderates are moderate more moderate Republicans Carbello in Florida and 0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:40.520 Leonard Lance New Jersey, they fell. So what was known 0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:44.199 as the Tuesday Group Tuesday Lunch group of moderates is 0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:49.080 now down to basically a snack. And uh, I think 0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:51.640 that is one of the the offshoots of a high 0:21:51.720 --> 0:21:55.800 voter turnout. The extremes turned out so to lou just 0:21:56.040 --> 0:21:58.880 looking forward here, I mean, one thing that's really striking 0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:02.720 to me is that the nation appears more divided than 0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:05.920 I believe I have ever seen in terms of district 0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:10.200 by districted. So you just really can't make overwhelming characterizations. 0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:12.400 People are going more left, people are going more right, 0:22:12.480 --> 0:22:15.600 people are getting more extreme here. Is there anything that 0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:18.800 is sort of a unifying issue that kind of emerges 0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:22.600 from this entire election? I would say healthcare. Even though 0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:24.959 healthcare is one of the most polarizing issues that has 0:22:25.000 --> 0:22:28.160 caused so many fights in the Congress, we did see 0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:32.480 people come out and candidates come out and talk about 0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:37.320 defending and protecting pre existing conditions. Uh, that's a Republican issue. Now, 0:22:37.359 --> 0:22:40.280 it's a Democratic issue. It's part of Obamacare. And even 0:22:40.280 --> 0:22:44.920 though Republicans voted multiple times to repeal Obamacare and actually 0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:48.320 get rid of those pre existing conditions protections or roll 0:22:48.400 --> 0:22:52.120 them back in significant ways, this election, in which healthcare 0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:54.680 turned out to be one of the top issues, ended 0:22:54.760 --> 0:22:59.960 up being a situation where both Republicans and Democrats agree 0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:03.600