1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three and 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 1: forty nine since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's 3 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:16,440 Speaker 1: main story the arts once thrived in New York City. 4 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: But that's the industry that has lost the most jobs 5 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 1: in the pandemic, and it's not yet clear what could 6 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: bring those jobs and that vibrant culture back. But first, 7 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: here's what happened in virus News today. A panel of 8 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 1: outside advisors to the US Food and Drug Administration are 9 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: vetting the Johnson and Johnson coronavirus vaccine today. It's one 10 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,279 Speaker 1: of the final steps toward likely authorization of the country's 11 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: first one dose immunization against COVID nineteen. The panel is 12 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: expected to vote that the vaccine's benefits outweigh its risks. 13 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: If that happens, the FDA could grant emergency clearance within days, 14 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: providing a badly needed boost to US vaccine supplies. Biden 15 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: administration officials have said the US expects J and J 16 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:25,559 Speaker 1: to release three million to four million shots next week, 17 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: assuming it's authorized for use. The company is ready to 18 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: deliver twenty million doses by the end of March. According 19 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: to an executive. Mexico's finance minister said more than eighty 20 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: million people in Mexico should be vaccinated by July. Arturo Herrera, 21 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: the minister, said the figure represents all of the targeted 22 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: adult population. He added that thirty four million people would 23 00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: have received their vaccine by April. Finally, California surpassed fifty 24 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:08,399 Speaker 1: thousand deaths from COVID nineteen, according to data from its 25 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: Health department. It's the first U S state to reach 26 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: that bleak milestone. Almost half of the fatalities have come 27 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: in the past two months, following a winter surgeon cases 28 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: that strained hospitals and lead to lockdowns across the state. 29 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: Since then, the outbreak has eased substantially. While the most 30 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: populous state tops the US in total deaths, on a 31 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: per capita basis, it ranks toward the middle. And Now 32 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: for today's main story, New York City's museums, sports arenas, 33 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: and entertainment venues are slowly coming back to life, but 34 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 1: the sector has contracted dramatically under the pressure of the 35 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: global pandemic. Jobs and arts, entertainment and recreation fell the 36 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: most of all the city's economics sectors, erasing a decade 37 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: of gains in what was once one of New York's 38 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: most vibrant industries. I spoke to reporter Spencer Norris about 39 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: what that means for cultural institutions and the city that 40 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: was one of the sector's biggest boosters. New York City's 41 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: arts and culture sector has been particularly hard hit by 42 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: the pandemic. You know what kind of numbers are we 43 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 1: looking at in terms of job losses over the past year. 44 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: UH numbers in this UH, in this sector are pretty devastating. 45 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 1: From December of two thousand nineteen through to December of 46 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty, the sector lost about two out of 47 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: every three jobs within the city. About forty six percent 48 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: of those jobs UM were in the Chelsea to Midtown 49 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: High Manhattan area, So area UM likely got hit worse 50 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: than just about anybody else. You know, what was the 51 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: size of the arts and culture sector in New York 52 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: pre pandemic? Right, so pre pandemic. Looking at the end 53 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: of two thousand nineteen, New York accounted for about UM thousand, 54 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: five hundred jobs in the private sector UM with about 55 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: sixty two hundred establishments in the arts, entertainment and recreation industry. 56 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: That's just based on the data that's in front of 57 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: us from the State Controller's office. UM. But like I said, 58 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 1: about two out of every three of those UM jobs 59 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: have been lost since then, so we're down into the 60 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: low thirty thousand's. And when we're talking about the arts 61 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 1: and culture sector, you know, let's break that down a 62 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: little bit. What types of jobs are included in that category. 63 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: So the arts, entertainment recreation sector is kind of a 64 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: big umbrellas the name suggests, so in compasses everybody from UM, desbians, musicians, 65 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 1: but also people like aerobics instructors, bartenders, UM, it really 66 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: covers a lot of different areas of the city. And actually, 67 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: how to reader right into me just about half an 68 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: hour ago, UM pointing out that these numbers maybe don't 69 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: really reflect the degree of the impact UM in his 70 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: particular sector. He works on Broadway, and he pointed out 71 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: that Broadway has been closed down for almost a full 72 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: year at this point. Right, it's a little bit different, 73 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 1: UM than bartenders and aerobic instructors who have had kind 74 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: of the opportunity to reopen and reintegrate, whereas a lot 75 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: of people who were working in the acting community are 76 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: still just shut out of a job broadly speaking, and 77 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: you know, individual job losses certainly is one big element here. 78 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 1: But but what about overall businesses operating in this space? 79 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: Do we have any kind of data how many businesses 80 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 1: within the arts and culture sector have permanently closed since 81 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 1: the start of the pandemic. Yeah, we do, um So 82 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 1: as of earlier this month, about um three out of 83 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: every five arts and entertainment businesses have shut down in 84 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: about sixty three of US sports and recreation venues. You know, 85 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: we've heard that Governor Andrew Cuomo is trying to partially 86 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: reopened businesses within the city, particularly within the arts and 87 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 1: culture sector. You know, what has been thus far cleared 88 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: for reopening and what kinds of restrictions remain in place. 89 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 1: So the first thing um that comes to mind is 90 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: New York has just reopened dining partially. February twelfth is 91 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: when they allowed twenty five percent capacity back in restaurants. 92 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: But I'm not sure that there's been any kind of 93 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: movement as far as reopening music and entertainment that usage. 94 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: It seems a little too early at this point. But 95 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: there has been discussion about reopening movie theaters with limited capacity. 96 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: That does obviously even with some very gradual steps towards reopening. 97 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: That does leave many many venues and cultural institutions still closed. 98 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: What kind of financial support is available for cultural businesses, um, 99 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: those involved in the arts to draw on during this time. Yes, 100 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: So there have been a lot of initiatives UM at 101 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: the federal level, UM that we're already familiar with, like 102 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: the Paycheck Protection Program UM. So the data says about 103 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: three out of every five arts and entertainment companies in 104 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: the city have already received alone through the p p 105 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: P program. UM. Additionally, there's another federal relief package that's 106 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: in the works UM that will provide fifteen billion dollars 107 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: for these live venues. But that's spread across the entire nation. 108 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: And I mean, in your opinion, you know, what are 109 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: we looking at as far as a runway to bring 110 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: the arts and culture sector back to pre pandemic levels 111 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: in New York City. Yeah, So in terms of reopening, 112 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: is going to kind of come down to how the 113 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: vaccine rollout UM sort of shakes out here in the 114 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: next few months. Uh. There have been issues and handcuffs 115 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: that we've seen involving accessibility to the vaccine in the 116 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: first few months including the ability to get follow up doses. Uh, 117 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: there's kind of a question over where over whether the 118 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: J and J vaccine um will clear up a lot 119 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 1: of those supply side issues. We're gonna have to see, Uh, 120 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: but it's going to be a matter of months yet 121 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: before um things fully reopen um. God knows when exactly 122 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: that will be. That with Spencer Norris, and that's it 123 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from 124 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: one bureaus of round the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 125 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,719 Speaker 1: slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 126 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 1: us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 127 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listeners find our 128 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor 129 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story 130 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: was reported by Spencer Norris. Original music by Leo Sidrin. 131 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 132 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. Thanks for listening.