1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Almalcarclay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:27,319 Speaker 2: As we get down to business and what's going to 7 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 2: be a very important day here for politics in Washington. 8 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 2: And certainly yes, the President's Big Beautiful Bill. You know, 9 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: it's not just me calling at that in quoting the President. 10 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: That's actually what it's called, right, the oh BBBA, it's 11 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 2: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That's the actual name. 12 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 2: And it looks like this is happening today in the Senate. 13 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 2: A lot of things took place over the weekend. There 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,319 Speaker 2: was a lot of deal making, and we have now 15 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 2: found ourselves with a rare daytime voter rama. This is 16 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: the stuff you talk about sausage making that's supposed to 17 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 2: happen in the middle of the night. And there you 18 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: see it on YouTube right now, live the Senate Floor, 19 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Originals, as we watch lawmakers do their work here. 20 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 2: Thank you, by the way for joining us on the 21 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 2: early edition on Bloomberg Radio satellite radio channel one twenty one. 22 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: The aforementioned YouTube. 23 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 2: You can search Bloomberg Business News Live to find us 24 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 2: there because you're going to want to dial in for 25 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 2: our conversation with Steve Ellis in a moment. 26 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 3: Things did not go. 27 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 2: Well over the weekend for Tom Tillis, and he's sort 28 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 2: of become the face of opposition here, if I can 29 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 2: call it that for Republicans in the Senate. There aren't 30 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 2: that many opposed. Maybe we'll say Republicans on Capitol Hill. 31 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 2: Following the pressure from Donald Trump to vote yes on 32 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 2: the Big Beautiful bill and a series of harassing comments 33 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 2: from the President, he's just decided to fold. He's not 34 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 2: going to hang out to be primaried in North Carolina, 35 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:48,639 Speaker 2: and so he's going for it now on the floor. 36 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: This is a man who feels free to speak. The 37 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 2: Republican from North Carolina. Listen to Tom Tillis late last night. 38 00:01:55,560 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 4: I'm telling the President that you have been missin formed 39 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: you supporting the Senate mark will hurt people who are 40 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 4: eligible and qualified for Medicaid. We're going to make sure 41 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 4: that we fulfill the promise, and then we can feel 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 4: I can feel good about a bill that I'm willing 43 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 4: to vote for, but until that time I will be 44 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 4: withholding my vote. 45 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 3: How are we feeling about the Bolo tie on? What 46 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 3: is that? Is that a golf shirt? 47 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 2: You'd have to get onto YouTube and back it up 48 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 2: to see what I'm saying. When you're not running for reelection, 49 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: you can do anything you want, it seems in the 50 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 2: US Senate. So as we wait for this to happen, 51 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: there're going to be a series of amendments. That's the 52 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 2: vote rama, that are put forth and voted on throughout 53 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 2: the day. That's what senators are doing now. They started 54 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 2: around nine o'clock in the morning, but there was one 55 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: vote before the actual vote o rama. And if you're 56 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 2: with us here on balance of power, you know about 57 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 2: this already, the current policy baseline. This is the method 58 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 2: of accounting in the House. That was a question about 59 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 2: being carried over into the Senate, whether the parliamentarian would 60 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 2: allow it. Well, John Thune decided not to run this, 61 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 2: apparently by the parliamentarian to have an actual vote on 62 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 2: the floor. Shockingly, Republicans decided together that extending the Trump 63 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 2: tax cuts basically cost nothing. That's the way this goes, 64 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 2: current policy baseline allows them to include more tax cuts 65 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 2: in the bill. And so here's the accounting. Now, the 66 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 2: cost of extending this is, according to the Joint Committee 67 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 2: on Taxation, totals almost four trillion dollars. The other tax 68 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 2: provisions in the bill six hundred ninety three billion. Only 69 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 2: that smaller amount is considered the official price tag for 70 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 2: the bill, even though we're talking about trillions. This is 71 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 2: Washington math. Enter the taxpayers for common sense. Steve Ellis 72 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 2: sent a letter to senators just a couple of days ago, 73 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 2: is on the twenty eighth of June. He must have 74 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 2: known what was coming. We can show that to you 75 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 2: on YouTube. As Steve writes, using a current policy baseline 76 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 2: masks the true deficit impact of this legislation. A preliminary 77 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 2: analysis that was I just mentioned current law baseline projects 78 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 2: four point two trillion and lost revenue over the next 79 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 2: ten years. Steve Wright's relying on current policy baseline gimmicks 80 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 2: insults the intelligence of tax payers. They will see through 81 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 2: the tricks and spot the new debt piled on. He's 82 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 2: with us now in studio. You were the doge before 83 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 2: there was a doge. 84 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 5: Weren't you certainly we've been around for thirty years doing 85 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 5: this type of work and cutting into this finding the 86 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 5: wasteful spending. We were the group that dubbed the bridge 87 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 5: and nowhere, the bridge and ower the bridge to nowhere. 88 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 2: So I don't know what you call the one big 89 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 2: beautiful bill, but I'm guessing you see some ugliness here. 90 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: And what it's going to mean for our debt and 91 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 2: deficit is. 92 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 5: What it's staggering. How much debt that they're going to 93 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 5: be piling on. We're talking about when you add in 94 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 5: future interest costs, when you add in macroeconomic effects. We 95 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 5: know that from the score that they did for the 96 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 5: House that it grew it may be three point three 97 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 5: trillion dollars in the initial score from CBO, but it's 98 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 5: gonna get close into four trillion dollars of additional debt. 99 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: So what do you think of this current policy baseline 100 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 2: and the fact that there's a vote on the floor today. 101 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: What's become of Washington when this is considered normal. 102 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 5: Well, I mean, they knew what answered they were going 103 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 5: to get from the part of life, so yes, so 104 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 5: they just decided, Okay, we're gonna we're gonna dismiss with that, 105 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 5: and we're gonna move this along. And the thing is 106 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 5: is that it's just such a ridiculous policy. It's just 107 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 5: it really boggles the mind that they would be going 108 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,919 Speaker 5: down this route, adding trillions of dollars a debt and 109 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 5: just trying to sweep it under the rug. 110 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 2: Well, you know what Republican senators would say to you, 111 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 2: and we'll be talking to them throughout the day, is 112 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 2: that you're not factoring in the growth. Here, Steve, what 113 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 2: happened in the first administration is we cut taxes, we 114 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 2: saw growth, and then COVID happen, and we can't really 115 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 2: account for what happened after that. But you're going to 116 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,799 Speaker 2: see growth that is not accounted for by the CBO 117 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 2: because they refuse to do dynamic scoring. And you're probably 118 00:05:58,279 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 2: blue in the face by now because you hear the 119 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 2: same arts that I do. 120 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 5: But they do do dynamics storing they have. I mean, 121 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 5: that's the whole macroeconomic effects. That was actually what ended 122 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,679 Speaker 5: up costing in their scoring the bill. More in the House, 123 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 5: it went from two point three trillion to two point 124 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 5: eight trillion when they took into account both the macroeconomic 125 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 5: effects and then increased interest rates, and we're going to 126 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 5: have to service that debt, and we spend a trillion 127 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 5: dollars today servicing or this year servicing that debt. 128 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 2: So what does Steve Ellas think when you're reading in 129 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 2: in the morning and you see the White House suggest 130 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 2: that all we need to do is cut interest rates 131 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: by one, two, maybe three points so we can have 132 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: less interest to bay on the debt. 133 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 3: Is that the solution? 134 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 5: Certainly, it's not going to be good for markets to 135 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 5: be manipulating it. Just try and make sure that we 136 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 5: don't have to pay our creditors back as much. Right, 137 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 5: And so, I mean this is a this is a 138 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:46,799 Speaker 5: ticking deficit time bomb. 139 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 2: The one beautiful act there's going to be a potential 140 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 2: now for I'm a conference committee or does this pass 141 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: the Senate no matter what happens here on the floor. 142 00:06:57,720 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 3: You've been doing this for a minute. 143 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 2: And then there's say something called the Manager's Amendment in 144 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 2: the House where the House effectively allows the Senate to 145 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 2: jam the House of Representatives. 146 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 3: They just they vote on what we're seeing come together now. 147 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, certainly it seems like they're trying to 148 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 5: grease the skids. They've been involving the Speaker's office to 149 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 5: try to make sure that whatever they get done can 150 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 5: pass the House. I hope it can't. I hope that 151 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,559 Speaker 5: there are some fiscal conservatives that are there to say 152 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 5: this is enough, and we need to do we need 153 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 5: to be fiscally responsible, and we can't just lie to 154 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 5: the American taxpayers about the cost of the bill. 155 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 2: Wow, what are you hearing at taxpayers? Then you're talking 156 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 2: to lawmakers and staffers. Is this as good as done? 157 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 3: I mean it, certainly. 158 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 5: This bill has had momentum, and the president has shown 159 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 5: his ability to get things. 160 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 2: Well, he's going to call you in primary if you 161 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 2: don't vote yes. Ask Tom tell. 162 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 5: Us yes, yes, yes, Ask Tom Massy from context to yes. 163 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 3: He keeps showing up for work though. 164 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 5: Yes, yes, absolutely, absolutely well, and so I think that 165 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 5: that's going to be a real challenge. 166 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 3: Now. 167 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 5: I'm hoping again that fiscal conservatives weigh in and say, 168 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 5: you know, four trillion dollars three point eight trillion dollars 169 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 5: is too much debt and that we need to rein 170 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 5: it in. 171 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 3: Uh. 172 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 2: By the way, add Don Bacon is not going to 173 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 2: run for reelection. This is getting to be untenable for 174 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 2: fiscal hawks. 175 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 3: Do you feel like you're on an island in Washington? 176 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 5: Certainly, fiscal sanity has taken. 177 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 3: It than thirty years ago when you started this. 178 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 5: Well, I'll put it this way. In two thousand, our 179 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 5: national debt was less than six trillion dollars. It's thirty 180 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 5: six trillion dollars today. 181 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 3: Wow. 182 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 2: Well, okay, so what are we gonna we're gonna pass 183 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 2: this bill in our remaining moment, we're gonna start talking 184 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 2: about blue ribbon panels, right, Simpson bowls. I don't know 185 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 2: we're going to creep up on this debt limit. I 186 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 2: guess they'll handle that assuming this passes. But there's gonna 187 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 2: have to be some conversation about cutting deficits here to 188 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 2: keep the bond market happy, to keep Wall Street satisfied. 189 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 5: No, yeah, absolutely, Not only that, it's that Social Security 190 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 5: is going to become insolvent in eight years time. So 191 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 5: there are other issues that are that are at play 192 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,959 Speaker 5: that aren't really even in play right now, and so 193 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 5: certainly we've got to have a fiscal reckoning and the 194 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,199 Speaker 5: bond market. You're right, that's the thing that's kind of 195 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 5: spooped the president on tariffs, and so certainly it gets 196 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 5: cost more costly for us to sell our debt. 197 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,839 Speaker 2: You out the uncertainty are of these reciprocal tariffs coming 198 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 2: up with the deadline on the ninth of July, you 199 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 2: kind of wonder where we're going to be coming out 200 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 2: of this holiday. I'm really glad you come see us. Steve, 201 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 2: thank you so much. Can you find him at Taxpayers 202 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 2: for Common Sense. Steve Ellis has been running this shop 203 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 2: for thirty years and bringing great insight to us as 204 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 2: we wait for the vote today. 205 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 3: This is happening as we speak in the Senate. 206 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 2: We're going to add the voice of Ashley Davis, Republican 207 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 2: Strategists coming up right after this. She's talking to lawmakers 208 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 2: and staffers as well, with the very latest on this process. 209 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 2: Stay here on Balance of Power only on Bloomberg. 210 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 211 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 212 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 213 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 214 00:09:56,200 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 215 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 2: Then, of course, there are the Democrats and they're going 216 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:06,719 Speaker 2: to have their amendments. That's part of the point here, 217 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 2: this voter rama. We certainly got a taste of what 218 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 2: was coming as things got into debate last night. Democrats 219 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:14,719 Speaker 2: on the Senate floor Sunday night. 220 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 3: Listen. 221 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 6: If the bill and the cuts included in the bill 222 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 6: indeed reduced the deficit as they claim it does, they 223 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 6: wouldn't have needed to raise the debt limit and the process. 224 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 6: It also drives four trillion dollars in debt. 225 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 3: Used to be three. 226 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 5: Point four now it's up to four trillion dollars. 227 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:39,679 Speaker 3: We know what the math is. 228 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 5: Everybody in this room knows the deficit is far worse 229 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 5: today than it was when Donald Trump passed those tax cuts. 230 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 4: I don't want to hear any more from my colleagues 231 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 4: about deficits. I don't want to hear any more crocodile 232 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 4: tears about deficits. 233 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 3: We're mortgaging our future. 234 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 2: Guess what we're gonna hear a lot more about deficits. 235 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 2: And Ashley Davis is with us now, as I mentioned, 236 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 2: Republican Strategists, partner at S three group, who's been through 237 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 2: a couple of these. 238 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 3: Actually, it's great to see you. 239 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 2: It's like Christmas morning or we having fun yet votama 240 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 2: during the day. 241 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 7: I know, I was hoping that voterama was last night 242 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 7: so we could wake up. 243 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 2: And this not supposed to do this in the light 244 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:20,839 Speaker 2: of day. Right, people are going to get a real 245 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 2: sense of how this works. None of this matters though, 246 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 2: right is what you're going to tell me. This bill 247 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 2: is going to pass. 248 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 7: I'm pretty sure. I mean, obviously, now we've lost two votes. 249 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 7: You have Ran Paul, and you'll have Senator tell Us. 250 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 7: But because of some of the concessions that have been 251 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 7: made to various senators like Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Ron Johnson, 252 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 7: he'll fight till the end. In regards to some of 253 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 7: the budget issues. I don't think that this is brilliant. 254 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 7: There's an option to fail. So I think this is 255 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 7: going to be ugly the next from now until Wednesday, 256 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 7: but I think it will. 257 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 2: Definitely So presumably vot rama goes, like Jack said, into 258 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 2: the night. Maybe there's a vote tonight tomorrow morning. 259 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 3: Does this get sticky when it goes back to the House. 260 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 2: You've got a lot of House members who won't recognize 261 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 2: this bill when it returns. 262 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 3: Of course, they knew this was going to happen. But 263 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 3: how do you iron out the differences. 264 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 7: Well, they're not going to iron out the differences, So 265 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 7: the Senate's going to gem the House pretty much. I 266 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 7: mean they're going to have to. I think that if 267 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 7: this Ron Johnson amendment that you were just discussing would 268 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 7: pass for some reason, that would put a lot of 269 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 7: moderates in the House in a really pat position. That 270 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 7: would be something that could potentially, quote, blow it up 271 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 7: on the medicaid front. But I think that this is 272 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 7: just we're watching how the sausage gets made and it's ugly. 273 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 7: This is why you put it up against a recess 274 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 7: like this. Even though by the time the time the 275 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 7: House goes home, they'll have two day recess. I mean, 276 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 7: they're going to be back on Tuesday, I think, to vote. 277 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 2: So I should remind everyone that lawmaker's House members will 278 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 2: need to be called back tonight or tomorrow morning, presumably 279 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 2: to make this happen. They actually have left on their recess, 280 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 2: so they're being called back to work. 281 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 7: The Speaker did give them a heads up to come 282 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 7: back tomorrow on Tuesday. Rules committee in the House will 283 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 7: go we'll get when once the Senate passes us tonight today, Tonight, 284 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 7: the middle of the night, it will go over to 285 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 7: the House, they'll do a rules committee, and then the 286 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 7: House will vote tomorrow. 287 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 2: Rules hearing would be almost more entertaining than the voteramah, right, 288 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 2: Like once you get Jim McGovern in there going at 289 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: it with Ship Roy, I mean, they're actually kind of 290 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 2: on the same side of this, aren't they. 291 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 7: Well, yeah, it's kind of the extremes what we've been 292 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,559 Speaker 7: talking about for a long time. The two extremes kind 293 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,839 Speaker 7: of now meet in the middle. So but it's it's 294 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 7: it's going to be interesting. These amendments, all the Democrat 295 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 7: amendments are going to be messaging amendments. They're all going 296 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 7: to be mad. You've seen this depending on which parties 297 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 7: do in a reconciliation bill. I mean, the Republicans now 298 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 7: are all mad at CBO and the you know, the deficit, 299 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 7: and they're saying it's wrong and they're not doing you know, 300 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 7: certain types of scoring and right. And then if this 301 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 7: was whenever we did the last reconciliation bill for Democrats, 302 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 7: it's the same conversation. So it's just like, yeah, I 303 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 7: think I'm just too old. I've done the same times 304 00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 7: so this. 305 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 2: Is the manager's amendments will get one. For a second, 306 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 2: there's not going to be a conference committee. They're not 307 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 2: going to hash it because then that bill would would 308 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 2: have to go back to the Senate and they wouldn't 309 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: meet the deadline. 310 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 3: Yes, that's really only one way to do this. 311 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 7: We and this is why the Speaker did this this 312 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 7: weekend by telling his members stop negotiating this over tweets. 313 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 7: If you have an issue with certain areas, call the 314 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 7: senators and get because that's what everyone was doing obviously 315 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 7: with this twenty four hour news service cycles. Now you're 316 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 7: playing to your audience, which is their constituent, so you're 317 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 7: laying out your marker. But yes, they will not Senator Thune. 318 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 7: Leader Thune will introduce a wrap around amendment, a manager's 319 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 7: amendment with kind of all the different changes and dogs 320 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 7: and cats and whatever amendments get through here, if any, 321 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 7: and then they'll send it up, they'll pass it in 322 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 7: the Senate and then they'll send it over to the 323 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 7: House and then that's the process after that. But I 324 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 7: just think that the it's this is just like, this 325 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 7: is the drama that happens, and then it's just like 326 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 7: everyone forgets about it. 327 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 2: Tom Tillis had some drama. You mentioned him once over 328 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: the weekend. He's decided he's not running for reelection. That 329 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 2: got so intense so quickly, with the harassment from Donald Trump, 330 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 2: the promise to be primaried. 331 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 3: He's out. So he's kind of the freest man to 332 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 3: speak in the Senate right now. Was this a profile 333 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 3: and courage? 334 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 2: What do you make of his decision to do this 335 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 2: and carry that flank if it is a flank, a 336 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 2: one man flank of the party. 337 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 7: First of all, Senator Tillis is a very serious member. 338 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 7: He's a very well liked member. He was definitely going 339 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 7: to have the fight of his life no matter what. 340 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 7: I mean. He's always been obviously very conservative, but has 341 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 7: voted his conscience and for his state forever. I think 342 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 7: his primary was going to be and just around town 343 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 7: and in the political world. His race was going to 344 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 7: be the hardest race by far, and he was going 345 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 7: to get primaried no matter what. So I think when 346 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 7: he saw some of these issues, he had a lot 347 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 7: of issues with this bill, probably the senator that had 348 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 7: the most different things you want to done. 349 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 3: I mean, he says it's a debt bomb you're going to. 350 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 7: First of I think it's it's he's speaking to a 351 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 7: state which is a purple state, so he has a 352 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 7: lot of different issues than a lot of these other 353 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 7: members do. But also, I mean, why spend if I 354 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 7: were him, why spend the next year and a half 355 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 7: getting the crap beat out of you? And then and 356 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 7: probably yeah, I mean you watch what McConnell was able 357 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 7: to do once his you know, ties were kind of cut. 358 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 7: But I think that I think the Senator will he's 359 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 7: listening again. He's still a conservative. On this bill or 360 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 7: any bill moving forward, he'll push for some of the 361 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 7: things that he wants. The problem is some of the 362 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 7: things that he did want in this bill, the leader 363 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 7: is not going to be as interested in making them 364 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 7: happen if they're controversial. So he may love lost a 365 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 7: couple issues because of doing this, but I think it's 366 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 7: a smart thing to do. 367 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 3: Enter Senator Laura Trump, what happens with this seat. 368 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 8: I don't know. 369 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 7: I mean, yeah, there's kind of I mean, how hopefully. 370 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 3: That she wanted to do that. 371 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: We assume everyone wants to run for senate. She's having 372 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 2: a pretty good life right now. 373 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, and being one of one hundreds different. 374 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,439 Speaker 7: She has a good TV gig. She passed up Florida. 375 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 7: I mean whether that was going to happen or. 376 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 2: Not, but she took herself much what we keep hearing 377 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 2: as well, Yeah, would you believe the rn CEDD to run? 378 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,920 Speaker 7: And Richard Hudson's actually an interesting that's real too. 379 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: Yeah. 380 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 7: I mean I haven't spoken to him today, but I 381 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 7: would think that, Hey, if there's a Senate seed open, Yeah, 382 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 7: why wouldn't. 383 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 2: You take advantage of Cooper shows up and everyone heads 384 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 2: for the hills or what? 385 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 7: I mean, that's what the Democrats are hoping for sure. So, 386 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 7: I mean it's gonna it was going to be a 387 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 7: top it was going to be our biggest fight to 388 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 7: defend no matter what as the Republicans, and now it 389 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 7: just got more so. And what the NRSC and some 390 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 7: of these other leadership posts should be doing is trying 391 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 7: to clear the field so there's not a really ugly primary. 392 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: Yes, right, right, So our remaining moment with Ashley Davis, 393 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 2: let's see all of this happens the way you just 394 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 2: mapped it out. 395 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 3: Donald Trump's signing this thing. 396 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 2: Fireworks are going off on the fourth lie, what's the 397 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 2: next priority for him? 398 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 3: What's he doing this? 399 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 7: No, yeah, but we've had a lot of things thrown 400 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 7: in along the way too. 401 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 2: It's going to be trade in tariffs obviously will be 402 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 2: his focus. But is there a legislative priority that that 403 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: follows here? Do they take another swing at reconciliation? 404 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 7: I think that they'll take well, they'll start doing all 405 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 7: of these make precision bills in regards to some of 406 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,199 Speaker 7: the ones that passed the House. The House that's going 407 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 7: to be really tough in the sentent. Yeah, so those 408 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 7: do continue to do some of those cuts. I think 409 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,400 Speaker 7: that he's going to have some of these trade agreements, 410 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 7: like what happens out of what happens with China and 411 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 7: Mexico and. 412 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 3: Come out of it. 413 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 7: I think that's what he thinks he needs to fix. 414 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 7: And then do we need to do like a NATO 415 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 7: three point zero again or whatever? Right for US mc 416 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 7: A I guess is. 417 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 3: The bond market? I think hopes. So, what a great 418 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 3: day to have you here. This is going to be wild. 419 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,359 Speaker 7: I could be completely wrong. Everything could change. 420 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 3: You're never wrong. S three group. 421 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power pod cast. 422 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's 423 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: den on Alma Cockley and Android Otto with the Bloomberg 424 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 425 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube, and. 426 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 9: It's Vote a Ramaday in the United States Senate. It 427 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 9: began this morning and it could go well into the 428 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 9: late hours tonight, if not the early hours of tomorrow, 429 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 9: with amendment votes on the Senate floor on this one big, 430 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 9: beautiful bill. Knowing that there are still roughly eight Republican 431 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 9: Senators who haven't said their firm yeses on this legislation 432 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 9: as it stands right now, and the Majority Leader, John 433 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 9: Thune can only afford to lose three of them ultimately 434 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 9: in a final passage vote. He already definitely doesn't have to. 435 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,679 Speaker 9: One being Senator Rant Paul, who of course will not 436 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 9: vote for this package because it includes a hike to 437 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 9: the debt ceiling. Another being Republican Senator Tom Tillis of 438 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 9: North Carolina, who made the surprise announcement over the weekend 439 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 9: that not only will he not support this bill, he's 440 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 9: also not going to seek reelection in twenty twenty six, 441 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 9: and he had some pretty harsh words on the floor. 442 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 4: I'm telling the President that you have been misinformed. 443 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 3: You supporting the. 444 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 4: Senate mark will hurt people who are eligible and qualified 445 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,640 Speaker 4: for Medicaid. We're going to make sure that we fulfill 446 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 4: the promise and then we can feel I can feel 447 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 4: good about a bill that I'm willing to vote for, 448 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 4: But until that time, I will be withholding my vote. 449 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 2: With the bolo tie on the floor of the United 450 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 2: States Senate Kaylee. The Cook Political Report has already flipped 451 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 2: its analysis of this Senate seat to toss up in 452 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 2: the wake of his departure. In the name game has 453 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 2: already started. Laura Trump is back in the mix along 454 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 2: with others here. Of course Roy Cooper among Democrats, and 455 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 2: there are several already running in that race. But we 456 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 2: want to get back to the matter at hand here 457 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 2: called Tom tillis a profile and courage or what's wrong 458 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 2: with Washington. Either way, these senators are going to have 459 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 2: to make a decision here in the coming hours on 460 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 2: what to do with this bill. And that's where we 461 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 2: start with our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie Shanzano 462 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 2: is with a Senior Democracy fellow with the Study for 463 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 2: the Presidency in Congress and Republican strategist Lisa Camuso Miller, 464 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:23,400 Speaker 2: former RNC communications director, a veteran of another Republican speaker's office. Lisa, 465 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 2: I'll start with you on what you think is about 466 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,439 Speaker 2: to happen here, beginning with a daytime vota rama. What 467 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 2: the heck's going on here? This is usually what takes 468 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 2: place in the overnight hours. You hear crazy stories about 469 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 2: pizza and wine being delivered at two am, but we're 470 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 2: doing it at high noon, presumably to give these lawmakers 471 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 2: a chance to stay up all night. 472 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 3: Again. What do you make of this decision? 473 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 10: Well, you know, Joe, these are sort of the theatrics 474 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 10: in the way that this typically goes down at a 475 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 10: bill like this that is so contentious, But it also 476 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,919 Speaker 10: gives a tremendous amount of wiggle room and time for 477 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 10: the majority leader to go ahead and try to get 478 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 10: those eight that are on the bust back in the fold. 479 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 10: And so certainly, like you said, there's two that are 480 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 10: for sure not going to be with the majority on 481 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 10: this bill. Who there's still so much to wait and see. 482 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 10: So vote ARAM is an opportunity for lots of votes 483 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 10: on lots of amendments and lots of nonsense. Outside the Beltway, 484 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 10: it looks like Washington as usual, right, the same old 485 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 10: weird things that they. 486 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,159 Speaker 7: Do in order to get business done. 487 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 10: But inside the Beltway we know that this actually will 488 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 10: provide time for the Majority to get the bill to 489 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 10: a place where they can get the support and get 490 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 10: it through the Senate, back to the House and to 491 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 10: the President's desk by the end of this week, which 492 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 10: is what I think will happen. Well, there's still a 493 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 10: lot that needs to be done before that can happen. 494 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 10: Assuming that the Majority Leader John fun or President from 495 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 10: himself can twist the arms of enough Republicans to get 496 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 10: it to pass in the Senate, it then has to 497 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 10: pass in the House. 498 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:54,119 Speaker 7: Genie. 499 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 9: And as we consider that, yes, the Senate did decide 500 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 9: today to adopt the current policy baseline formally take down 501 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 9: at least the on paper cost of this ultimate package. 502 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 9: It's adding more to the deficit than the House bill 503 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 9: would have. Is that really going to fly with the 504 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 9: House Freedom Caucus? 505 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 8: It's going to be tough. I mean, ultimately we have 506 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 8: seen the Freedom Caucus members putting Tom Massey aside, people 507 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 8: like Chip Roy they are very emotive, and that they 508 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 8: are very passionate about their frustration with these bills, and 509 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,680 Speaker 8: ultimately they have gone along with the leadership. But this 510 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 8: vote coming up, presuming it gets through the Senate, is 511 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 8: going to be unlike any of those because this is it. 512 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 8: In the past, Mike Johnson has been able to tell them, 513 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 8: you know, you'll get another pass at this, but this 514 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 8: is it. And they've already indicated that the increase in 515 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 8: the deficit that's coming over from the Senate side is 516 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 8: unacceptable to them. So we have to wait and see. 517 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 8: And you know, as we look at the Senate side, 518 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 8: I would just say that the vote a rama has 519 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 8: already shown us that there is a break in this 520 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 8: party structure here as Democrats trying to protect rural hospitals 521 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 8: got Collins and Rakowski to join them and to defect, 522 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 8: which shows that, you know, on this issue of Medicaid 523 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 8: cuts surely the most controversial aspect of this for so 524 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 8: many senators, that there is a break in support in 525 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,439 Speaker 8: the Senate and that is going to continue to be 526 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 8: a real point of contention for Republicans. And that's how 527 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 8: the Democrats are using this vote rama effectively to not 528 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 8: only force these votes, but to show Republicans that they 529 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,679 Speaker 8: are not unified, and we've seen that just in the 530 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 8: last few minutes. 531 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 2: Of reminding us that this has taking place before our 532 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 2: eyes here, Genie, I just heard from a great source 533 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill, Lisa Camusa Miller, that this vote rama 534 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:52,400 Speaker 2: may conclude with a Republican wrap around amendment that would 535 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 2: revert many components of the Senate bill back to the 536 00:24:56,359 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 2: House version, making this more palatable for the House to pass, 537 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,360 Speaker 2: knowing that there's not likely to be a conference committee 538 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 2: here that would continue the process probably well beyond the 539 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,439 Speaker 2: president's deadline. You've seen this movie before. Is that how 540 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 2: this ends? And why would senators vote for something that's 541 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:14,920 Speaker 2: still changing? 542 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 10: Well, it sure seems that way, Joe. And look, the 543 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 10: way that this works is that the House and the 544 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 10: Senate are working in real time together. As much as 545 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 10: we talk about the negotiations in the Senate, the House 546 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 10: is very much involved because they know that the bill 547 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 10: will come back to them and this will have to 548 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 10: get done. And also, don't forget that the power of 549 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,160 Speaker 10: the president. The president will make phone calls, he will 550 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 10: get involved when this process is in play and to 551 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 10: get the House back together. So it seems to me 552 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,159 Speaker 10: like that kind of suggestion that kind of wrap around 553 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,239 Speaker 10: to get things back to where it was so that 554 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 10: they can make sure that the House can get this 555 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 10: done quickly is certainly at play and very much something 556 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 10: that would happen if the House and the Senate wanted 557 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 10: to make sure that this bill was done by the 558 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 10: end of this week, which is definitely the goal. 559 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 9: Well, I would point out that the White House Press 560 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 9: Secretary Caroline Lovett is currently holding a briefing as we 561 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 9: speak talking about this. She says that the President actually 562 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 9: met this morning with both the House Speaker Mike Johnson 563 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 9: and the Senate Majority Leader John fun at the White House, 564 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 9: and that Republicans need to stay tough and unify for 565 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 9: this tax bill to get back to this idea of 566 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 9: a wrap around amendment. Though, Jeanie, then, what was the 567 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 9: point of the entire exercise the Senate just went through 568 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 9: for the last several weeks. 569 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 8: It's a good question, Kaily. You know, this is the 570 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 8: reality of how the Senate and the House operate, and 571 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 8: the fact that they know how tough this boat is 572 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 8: going to be. And people look at this and they think, well, 573 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 8: this is really really silly, But the reality for these 574 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 8: members going home is that this bill continues to be 575 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 8: wildly unpopular, whether it's a wrap around or not. 576 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,439 Speaker 3: You have, you know, the. 577 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 8: Press secretary saying, you've got to hang tough, you've got 578 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 8: to be unified. If you vote, know the results will 579 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 8: be catastrophic. That is what the message they're sending. But 580 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 8: these members and senators also look in their own districts, 581 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 8: and somebody like Lisa Murkowski. Just a few days ago, 582 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 8: the head of the legislature, the House and the Senate 583 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 8: in Alaska co authored an editorial in The New York 584 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 8: Times saying how devastating this bill will be for Alaska. 585 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 8: So does Murkowski hold their nose and vote for it, 586 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,199 Speaker 8: particularly if it's on the wrap around? She might have to, 587 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 8: But they know that this will impact them enormously as 588 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 8: they go up for reelection and as they take this home. 589 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 8: And of course Donald Trump doesn't care. This is about 590 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 8: you being supportive of him, regardless of the impact of 591 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 8: the party. And we saw that with Tillis because now 592 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 8: Democrats could very well win a seat that he's held 593 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 8: for three sessions. 594 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 2: Well, you wonder if the whale hunting caucus might save 595 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 2: Lisa Murkowski's vote. As we discussed earlier Genie. In this bill, 596 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 2: a new provision upping the deduction that you can take 597 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 2: for whale hunting related expenses covers boats and weapons as 598 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 2: a charitable contribution, reminding us that the leadership is keenly 599 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,200 Speaker 2: aware of who is at issue here when it comes 600 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,959 Speaker 2: to vote. Lisa, I don't know where we're going with 601 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 2: this when it comes to a final vote on this bill, 602 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 2: John Thune is, I'm sure talking with people right now. 603 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 2: But are the deals like these the deals that get 604 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: this done as opposed to the other amendments that are 605 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 2: taking place in the light of day. 606 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 9: Well, yeah, this is. 607 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 10: How negotiation works in these processes for sure. As I said, 608 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 10: this is a great, big, diverse country, and each and 609 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 10: every one of those US senators that John Thune has 610 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 10: to make satisfied with the way the bill comes together 611 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 10: has also got to have something in there that works 612 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 10: for their district, right, And so that's a lot of 613 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 10: the way that this ends up getting done. You and 614 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 10: I are we're all old enough to remember the Bridge 615 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 10: to Nowhere that was a long and a long time ago. 616 00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 10: But it's another one of those moments in time when 617 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 10: there was a back and forth that needed to happen 618 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 10: within one of the senator's districts in order to make 619 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 10: things happen on the economic side. So if this bill's 620 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 10: going to pass, there's going to be a lot of 621 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 10: give and take. There's going to be a lot of negotiation, 622 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 10: and there's going to be a lot more to get done. 623 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 10: But I guarantee you that this vote will happen by 624 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 10: Wednesday of this week. I'm putting my five dollars on it, Joe, 625 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 10: and I'll bet you for it. 626 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 3: All right. 627 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 2: You know that Bridge to Nowhere was deemed Kayley. That 628 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 2: name came from Taxpayers for Common Sense. Their director, Steve Ellis, 629 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 2: who was with US earlier, sent a letter to senators 630 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 2: just a couple of days ago, saying, relying on the 631 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 2: current policy baseline gimmicks insults the intelligence of taxpayers. They 632 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 2: will see through the tricks and spot the new debt 633 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 2: piled on. 634 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 3: You wonder if that's true. 635 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 9: Well, yeah, considering the Committee, or rather the Congressional Budget Office, 636 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 9: which is nonpartisan, said that the Senate bill would add 637 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 9: three point three trillion dollars to the deficit over ten years, 638 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 9: more than the two point eight trillion dollars that would 639 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 9: have been in the House package, which is why some 640 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 9: of those phisical conservatives in the House especially are having 641 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 9: a difficult time with this. And we'll see if we 642 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 9: end up with the wrap around solution we were just 643 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 9: discussing with our political panel. Thank you so much to 644 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 9: you both, Lisa and Mussa Miller and Jeanie Shanzeno joining 645 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 9: us on this Monday with the voter rama still underway 646 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 9: on the Senate floor. 647 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketsas 648 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 649 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 650 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 651 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 652 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 9: And this is what we turn to now with Mark Goldwin, 653 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 9: Senior Vice president and Senior Policy director for the Committee 654 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 9: for a Responsible Federal Budget, which has been out with 655 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 9: warning after warning over the cost and deficit impact of 656 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,959 Speaker 9: this package. Mark, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 657 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,720 Speaker 9: We know one of the first things the Senate did 658 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 9: today was vote to adopt the current policy baseline, effectively saying, 659 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 9: at least on paper, this doesn't cost the trillions of 660 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:59,239 Speaker 9: dollars that the Congressional Budget Office has estimated. Give us 661 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 9: a reality check. 662 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 11: Yeah, at least on paper, is really important because the 663 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 11: bond markets aren't going to see it that way. This 664 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 11: bill as written, adds about four trillion dollars to the debt. 665 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 11: It includes a lot of gimmicky expirations. If you were 666 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 11: to make it all permanent, adds about five and a 667 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 11: half trillion dollars of debt. And they're trying to use 668 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 11: some sort of legal shenanigans where basically the chairman of 669 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 11: the Budget Committee says, I'm going to pretend that it 670 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 11: produces the deficit, and it's just not grounded. 671 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 3: In reality, current policy, baseline. 672 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 2: Maybe the most important thing, the most important vote that 673 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 2: happened today mark Republican senators voting in favor of this 674 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 2: accounting method to continue what was basically started here in 675 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 2: the House, which essentially means that extending the Trump tax 676 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 2: cuts costs nothing. 677 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 3: How does that math work? 678 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 11: So it's even worse than that. So they are pretending 679 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,440 Speaker 11: the Trump tax cuts had already been extended, right, and 680 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 11: so that basically gives them a free three point eight 681 00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 11: trillion dollars. 682 00:31:58,480 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 3: They don't have to charge themselves with. 683 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 11: But they aren't pretending that everything's permanent. All of the 684 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 11: new temporary tax cuts and spending in the bill they 685 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 11: are counting as temporary. So it's not even a pure 686 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,160 Speaker 11: we're just going to assume everything's permanent basedline. It's a 687 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,160 Speaker 11: mix and match baseline to get their best desired number. 688 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 11: And as I said, that might work for the sales 689 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 11: pitch and for the signs they want to hold up, 690 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 11: but the bond markets aren't going to see it that 691 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 11: way when we have deficits approaching seven eight percent of 692 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 11: GDP and debt that is zooming past World War two levels. 693 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 9: Okay, so let's consider some of the various solves for 694 00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 9: at least part of this math problem that senators are 695 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 9: putting forward, Like, for example, mark the amendment that Senator 696 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 9: Rick Scott is pursuing, which would end the federal or 697 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 9: phase out federal cost sharing for Medicaid expansion under the 698 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 9: Affordable Care Act. How much money would something like that 699 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 9: really save? How far would that go into eating into 700 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 9: the cost of this bill? 701 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 11: Sure, so they have about a four trillion dollar hole. 702 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 11: Senators Scott's amendment, which is actually pretty sick magnificant. Would 703 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 11: close about ten percent of that with interest with about 704 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 11: four hundred billion, that'd be a pretty good start, but 705 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 11: still the other ninety percent to go. This bill is 706 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 11: past the point that you can sort of tinker with 707 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 11: the Medicaid and snap in other changes and fix it. 708 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 11: They really need to go back to the drawing board 709 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 11: and make some major changes. And by the way, I 710 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 11: should add, this bills a trillion dollars more expensive than 711 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,880 Speaker 11: the House so even to get back to the House's number, 712 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,480 Speaker 11: they've done major, major, major changes. 713 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 3: That's exactly what the Freedom Caucus was saying. 714 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 2: The House Freedom Caucus out with a statement late yesterday 715 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 2: saying it adds one point three trillion to the deficit 716 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 2: that the House budget didn't have, one thousand, seven hundred 717 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 2: and five percent more than the House bill. You probably 718 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 2: have heard talk about this wrap around amendment that might 719 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 2: end the voterama here market would revert this bill back 720 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 2: to something closer to the House version. Makes it pretty 721 00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 2: difficult to come up with any estimates or projections here 722 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 2: on what the real cost would be, isn't it. 723 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 11: We're jally our best to do the instant estimates, but look, 724 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 11: the House built added about two point four sorry to 725 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,759 Speaker 11: added about three trillion dollars to the debt. This AD's 726 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,200 Speaker 11: about four trillion dollars to the debt. We should be 727 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 11: reducing the debt by eight trillion. I would much rather 728 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,399 Speaker 11: have the House one than the Senate one. But let's 729 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 11: not pretend that either of these are fiscally responsible. 730 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 6: Well. 731 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 9: Of course, part of the republicans argument and part of 732 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,440 Speaker 9: the administration's argument, Mark, is that it's one thing to 733 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,440 Speaker 9: consider what the Congressional Budget Office can actually score, although 734 00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,800 Speaker 9: they have qualms with that for not taking into account 735 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,080 Speaker 9: potential growth impacts to the extent that they would like. 736 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 9: But the other is that there are certain things the 737 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 9: Congressional Budget Office is not able to score, like, for example, 738 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 9: the president's tariffs that are in place and bringing revenue 739 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 9: into the treasury. If we were to factor that in, 740 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,759 Speaker 9: what does the ultimate picture of these policies in aggregate 741 00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:54,560 Speaker 9: actually look like. 742 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 11: Yeah, so it's a fair point. So we've looked at 743 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,040 Speaker 11: the president's tariffs. If they were all to stay in 744 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 11: effect as they are today, that means no new trade deals, 745 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,520 Speaker 11: no exemptions, no nothing. They would cover about half of 746 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 11: the cost of this bill on a yearly basis, so 747 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,360 Speaker 11: head start. But remember large parts of the President's terifa 748 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 11: actually been ruled illegal by the US Trade Court. There's 749 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 11: still an effect pending appeal, but if those end up 750 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 11: going away, it only covers about fifteen to twenty percent 751 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,719 Speaker 11: of this bill. So yes, terriffs raise revenue. Interesting, but 752 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 11: again they're not going to cover the cost well. 753 00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 2: And of course we could have a bunch of trade 754 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 2: deals announced. Mark, That's what the administration tells us. As 755 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,680 Speaker 2: we get closer to July ninth, Howard Lutnik told Kayley 756 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:37,800 Speaker 2: and I just a couple of days ago, expect about 757 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,680 Speaker 2: ten trade deals between now and then. That takes money 758 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:42,800 Speaker 2: away from this, right. 759 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 11: That's that's exactly right. I mean, it depends what the 760 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 11: trade deals are relative to right, because I wasn't giving 761 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:51,360 Speaker 11: you the Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs that they pulled because 762 00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,960 Speaker 11: they were so damaging to the to the markets. But 763 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 11: the terraff revenue could be weighed out and the end 764 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,160 Speaker 11: on economic growth. The Commrecial jud Office actually looked at this, 765 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:02,919 Speaker 11: not with the Senate bill yet, but with a house bell. 766 00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 11: They found that economic effects makes it more costly. The 767 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 11: reason is, yeah, lower taxes boost the economy, but higher 768 00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,359 Speaker 11: debt also boosts interest rates. And because we have so 769 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 11: much debt already, higher interest rates mean higher interest payments. 770 00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,919 Speaker 11: Actually means a dynamics score adds more to the debt 771 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,080 Speaker 11: than what they call static scoring. 772 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 9: Well, and it's those interest payments that President Trump seems 773 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 9: specifically focused on with his repeated criticism, and not just 774 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,480 Speaker 9: the chair of the Federal Reserved your own power, but 775 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,919 Speaker 9: today widening it out to the entire FED board, which 776 00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,600 Speaker 9: he argues is just sitting by while rates stay high. 777 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 9: He actually sent a note to the FED chair with 778 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,839 Speaker 9: world central bank rates showing where he thinks the US 779 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,840 Speaker 9: should be somewhere in the ballpark of twenty five to 780 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 9: one hundred and seventy five basis points versus where we 781 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,359 Speaker 9: are now at four and a half percent mark. Does 782 00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 9: he actually, though, have a point about how the US 783 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,160 Speaker 9: might fisk It might be a fiscal survival health necessity 784 00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,680 Speaker 9: for interest rates to go lower because of this burden. 785 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,840 Speaker 11: Well, last time the FED cut rates in the short term, 786 00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,319 Speaker 11: we actually saw the tenyear go up. So last year, 787 00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 11: remember the FED cum rates by about a hope full 788 00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 11: percentage point in total, and the tenure Treasury went from 789 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:11,880 Speaker 11: three and a half to four and a half. So 790 00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 11: cutting the near term rate isn't a guarantee that the 791 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,839 Speaker 11: long term is going to go down if the underlying 792 00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 11: sort of deficit inflation debt market dynamics aren't feeling it. 793 00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 11: So you know, maybe maybe the Fed cutting rates is 794 00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,560 Speaker 11: going to help us, but it's not clear it's going 795 00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,520 Speaker 11: to help us very much, and it could reignite inflation 796 00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:33,240 Speaker 11: in the process. 797 00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 2: Mark, it's great to have you with us, Mark Goldwine, 798 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,840 Speaker 2: Director of Senior Policy Director, I should say at the 799 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,960 Speaker 2: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, thanks for crunching the 800 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,560 Speaker 2: numbers for us. I'm not sure anyone, any single person 801 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,600 Speaker 2: has read this entire bill Kyley, nine hundred and forty pages. 802 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,520 Speaker 2: Although Senate clerks divvied it up yesterday, it took them 803 00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 2: sixteen hours starting late Saturday night into Sunday to read 804 00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,719 Speaker 2: the big, beautiful bill. 805 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,160 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 806 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,880 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 807 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 808 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,359 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 809 00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.