1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: Hi, this is new because of the coronavirus. I am 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: currently staying at home in Rome, where my wife serves 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: as the United States Ambassador of the Holy See. She's 4 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: leading the embassy in dealing with all the different changes 5 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: being brought about by the pandemic. To bring you this 6 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 1: episode this week, I'm recording from my home, so you 7 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: may notice a difference in audio quality on this episode 8 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: of Newsworld. I have a new novel that was released 9 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: this week entitled Shakedown. Valerie Maybury and Brett Garrett, fictional 10 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: characters you met in my national bestseller Collusion, are caught 11 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:39,959 Speaker 1: in the middle of a deadly crisis, with an impending 12 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 1: nuclear bomb attack and little help from the government who 13 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: sidelined them both. I'll talk about how the book is 14 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: based on real life events, and how with every new 15 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: novel I write, I'm always considering the geopolitical events happening 16 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: in the world and how to fictionalize them. I'm pleased 17 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: to welcome my guests Pete Early, co author of Shakedown, 18 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: and doctor Jeffrey Mancoff, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow Russia 19 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: and you raise your program at the center of the 20 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: strategic in the National studies people without giving away too 21 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 1: much of the plot, you actually found an example of 22 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 1: a Soviet plan which was luckily never carried out. Why 23 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: don't you talking about the Soviets themselves thought they were doing, 24 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: and which we came really the backdrop against which we 25 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 1: agreed to do shakedown. In two thousand, one of the 26 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: highest ranking Russians and Soviet intelligence defected. He was under Poudin. 27 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: The FBI kept him hidden for five years before they 28 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: actually brought him out and said, hey, this guy's a defector. 29 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: And one of the things he told me when I 30 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: interviewed him from my book was about the really wild 31 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: sounding plot to cause a tsunami by detonating a nuclear 32 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 1: bomb off our coastline, and they would definitely cause significant damage. 33 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: He claimed that their studies showed it would flood the 34 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: East coast from Charleston, South Carolina, all the way to Boston. 35 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: It would drown Washington, DC. And when you and I 36 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: decided we wanted to look into that, we discovered that 37 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: actually it began as an idea with the US military. 38 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: One of the things we pride ourselves on is the 39 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: amount of research we do that In fact, reviewers have 40 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: commented about unknown facts that now are appearing in our 41 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: books that are really kind of shocking. And there was 42 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: a project called Project Seal in nineteen forty four during 43 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: the war where the US government thought, if we could 44 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: weaponize a tsunami, this would be great, and especially against Japan, 45 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: and so they detonated i think thirty seven hundred bombs 46 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 1: off the New Zealand coast trying to see if this 47 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: would work. We abandoned that plan because, believe it or not, 48 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: the government was putting it on the same level as 49 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 1: studies for a hydrogen bomb, and when the bomb became 50 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: more of reality, they put the tsunami aside. Well, the 51 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,639 Speaker 1: Soviets picked this up in the sixties. Luckily Nikita Kushev 52 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: decided that it was too risky. The idea was that 53 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: they were so napped with their submarines that they could 54 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: do this off our coast with a nuclear bomb in 55 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: a submarine and act like it was an accident, and 56 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: that would give them an excuse to attack our country. 57 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: And so that's kind of one of the major plots 58 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: that we have in Shakedown. Part of what makes it 59 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: intriguing to me and brings it into the modern era 60 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: is we have a very significant role for the Iranians, 61 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: who clearly we all now know are routinely trying to 62 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: find ways to hurt us and who have operatis who 63 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: are very competent. And as you point out to the 64 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: other day, we have this little challenge in that the 65 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: central Iranian figure got killed in back dead by the 66 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: Americans a couple months ago. But it also tells you 67 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: about how authentic our effort to portray these people is 68 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: that the guy who has a different name obviously in Shakedown, 69 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: but he really is modeled on the man who had 70 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: been the lead planner for the Iranian terrorist organization for 71 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: I think twenty or twenty five years. Absolutely, when I 72 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: say it's based on research, what we did was look 73 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: at videos of Solomoni and it was interesting because he 74 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,479 Speaker 1: is very very calm when he spoke. He is very smart, 75 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: but he was also very devious, and he interwined religion, 76 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 1: and we do that in the book too, where we 77 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: about passing I think it's the Kaiber flag and that's 78 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: a religious reference and have that then means something to 79 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: the Iranian people because Mohammed at one point was directing 80 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: an attack on a settlement and none of the generals 81 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: could do it. They were getting beaten back, and then 82 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, God shows a foot soldier and 83 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: you directed him to lead the attack. And so when 84 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: you have somebody who's the head of the most notorious 85 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: force against us, the Koods Force, leading this effort to 86 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 1: destroy the United States, and you intertwine the religion, then 87 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: it gives you a better understanding, which we try to 88 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: convey in the book about why people believe this. We 89 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 1: then have an overlap with the Russian olig So you 90 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: have two of America's most dangerous opponents finding reason to collaborate, 91 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: and in both cases without the official approval of their government. 92 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: In Shakedown, we're really laying out for people a way 93 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 1: of thinking about the world that is really important. That 94 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: it's much more intertwined than people think. It's much more 95 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 1: complicated than people think. The dangers that can emerge can 96 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: emerge in ways you haven't quite imagined. As usual, the 97 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 1: bureaucracy doesn't want to believe it. So we end up 98 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: with our two heroic figures, Brett Garrett and Valerie Maybury, 99 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 1: have to operate in a sense beyond being independent agents. 100 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: In some ways, their mavericks who are clearly outside the 101 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: approval of the system. But if they didn't do what 102 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: they did, we might have lost Baltimore in Washington. And 103 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: in a sense, I think the model you and I 104 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 1: have comes out of all the people we've known that 105 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: are the Brett Garrets, and they are the Valerie Mayberries 106 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: and the people who do what they think is right, 107 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: even if their bureaucratic boss doesn't quite understand how to 108 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 1: deal with them. I think that's really an astute point, 109 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: and it's a point where it comes from the ground up, 110 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: it comes from someone thinking outside the box. In our 111 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: last book, Collusion, we really painted a very accurate picture 112 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: of Pudin and how he's willing to do just about 113 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: anything for money. The relationship between the Russian government and 114 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,239 Speaker 1: these kind of satellite people who operate on their own, 115 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: there's ties there that aren't always obvious, and that's one 116 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: of the things we tried to stress and Shakedown, where 117 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: you have a character who's an oligarth who really has 118 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: ties to the Kremlin but no direct government position. You know. 119 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: One of the weirdest stories I also learned from this defector, 120 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:52,119 Speaker 1: Sergey Tretchikov, was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, 121 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: a group of Russian businessmen decided they'd make millions of 122 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: dollars by drilling I think it was three thousand holes 123 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: in a area of Russia that was off the Arctic 124 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 1: coast that was used for nuclear testing. They're going to 125 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 1: drill these holes there. It's going to be a thousand 126 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: feet deep, and then they were going to drill a 127 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: big hole right in the center. They were going to 128 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: invite all the countries with nuclear waste to come in 129 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: and dump all their nuclear waste in these holes. Then 130 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: they were going to drop a hundred megaton bomb in 131 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: the center of it and blow them all up. And 132 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: this was quasi approved by Pudin and his people, and 133 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: they were moving forward with it until some folks got 134 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 1: wind and exposed it in the Canadian press and they 135 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: were shamed out of it. But my point is that 136 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: there were a lot of really scary ideas involving nuclear 137 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,319 Speaker 1: devices that if they could make a profit, they had 138 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 1: no problem moving forward. It's almost of shocking. If you 139 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: grew up in the Soviet Union and your role model 140 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 1: was Joseph Stalham and you had been trained by the KGB, 141 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: you probably have a different set of values than we do. 142 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: And in parallel, if you've grown up in Iran as 143 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: a genuine religious fanatic, and your entire modeled and build 144 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 1: around first the founding Iotolamani and now the current Iotolani, 145 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: and you think that, for example, in the tradition of 146 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,479 Speaker 1: your religion, that lying to your enemy is totally appropriate 147 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: and the fact almost a requirement, well you blend those 148 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 1: two together. They both dislike America. The Russian wants to 149 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: make money because being an oligarch in Russia is a 150 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: very high value thing. The Iranian simply wants to hurt 151 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: the United States in a way that will make him 152 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: look heroic back home because they have done his duty. 153 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 1: I think we try and shake down an inclusion. We 154 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: try to reach through for the reader to create an 155 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: exciting adventure that accurately reflects the complexity, describes it in 156 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: a simple enough way that it's fun and it's interesting 157 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: and it's a good read. But we're introducing you to 158 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 1: a world is probably very different than the world of 159 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: the daily news channel talk shows. If you look at Shakedown, 160 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 1: you'll see a connection Iran, Russia, and China. But if 161 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 1: you look specifically in the real world, one of the 162 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 1: things that the defector told US intelligence and told me 163 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 1: later in the book, was that the main inspector for 164 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: the atomic energy sent in to make sure Iran was 165 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: keeping his promises was a Russian controlled person and he's 166 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: still in office. He had been recruited by the defector, 167 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: who said, I recruited this guy. He's a Russian asset 168 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: and he's the one who is making portsback on whether 169 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: Iran is complying. In July of twenty eighteen, Massad operative 170 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 1: broke into a warehouse in Turan and they took out 171 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: a half ton of secret materials. It was an amazing operation. 172 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: They did it without getting caught. They cut through thirty 173 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: two Iranian safes. They hauled out over fifty thousand pages 174 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 1: of documents, one hundred and sixty three compact disc and 175 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: the Israeli Prime Minister showed this information to President Trump, 176 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: and it just proved that the Iranians were being deceptive 177 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: and that they were intent on resuming bomb production, because 178 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 1: these were all important documents about how to move forward 179 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 1: with their program, how to go ahead and build a 180 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 1: nuclear weapon that was almost certainly larger, more sophisticated, and 181 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: better organized than any of US suspected. And so what 182 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: we're trying to do in Shakedown is say, yeah, this 183 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 1: is a good exciting adventure story, but guess what it 184 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: is rooted in something that you should be aware of, 185 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: and that should quite frankly alarm you. Shakedown opens with 186 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: an Iranian living in America being killed right there in 187 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 1: the Virginia suburbs, and you look around you realize, oh, yeah, 188 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 1: but there are a lot of people who may be here, 189 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: for example, having fled their country, and there are a 190 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: substantial number of people who would probably find it very 191 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: dangerous to go back home, whether in North Korea or China, 192 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: or Russia or Iran. We also know from Putin's actions 193 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: in London that it is not incomprehensible that the Russian 194 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: intelligence will try to kill people even on our shores, 195 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: kill their enemies people who speak out against them. Next, 196 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: why the rising dangers Soviet stealth technology should be alarming 197 00:12:54,600 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: to every Amerity. Maybe Aaron Garrett, characters you met in 198 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: my national bestseller Collusion, are caught in the middle of 199 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: a deadly crisis, with an impending nuclear obamba attack and 200 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: little help from the government who sidelined them both. Will 201 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: they protect the United States from an unexpected attack from 202 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: the Russians and will base or but Shakedown quarter right 203 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:44,559 Speaker 1: now atingwish three sixty dot com slash shakedown. Another thing 204 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: I really like about Shakedown. We really focus on submarines, 205 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: and I think the American public needs to be aware 206 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: of two things. I think one is the rising danger 207 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: with Soviet technology. You know, after this by John Walker 208 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 1: and as buddy Jerry Whitworth gave up so many secrets, 209 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: and a lot of them had to do with submarines. 210 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: The Russians really intensified their efforts to make the stealth submarine, 211 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 1: and we discovered last year that they really had succeeded. 212 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: We found out that one of their submarines actually had 213 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 1: spent a month in the Gulf of Mexico and nobody 214 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: knew it. And this is very troubling because the closest 215 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: way you get to the United States is with the submarine. 216 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: And that's why the Northwest Passage and all these things 217 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 1: were so important, because submarines from Russia would come out, 218 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: they'd hide in the fields, and then they would come 219 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: out and sneak down our coast. We have lost some 220 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: of our ability because the stealth technology, the other thing 221 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: that we point out in the book is that again 222 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: the Walker spy case gave up SOCIS, and that was 223 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: an underwater microphones all along key points outside our nation. 224 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: These are hydrophones that could actually hear submarines coming. Once 225 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 1: the Walkers told them about these hydrophones, they went around 226 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: and started destroying them, and we had to come up 227 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: with an underwater integrated undersea surveillance system. And one of 228 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: the characters in our book talks about and this was 229 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: based on an actual statement, how under the old system, 230 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: if a whale farted, we would know about it. Well, 231 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: we don't know about it now, and that's very troubling stuff, 232 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: but partly creates the sense of believability that shakedown could occur. 233 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: The ocean is enormous, and it's actually much harder to 234 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: track ships than it is to track aircraft, and so 235 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: the total number of ships at any given time is 236 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: so enormous that it's pretty easy to lose somebody in 237 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: the noise. And one of the characters to the submarine 238 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: is the effort to be able to hide within merchant 239 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: ships so that the noise surrounds the submarine's noise, and 240 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: because you're picking up the merchant ship, you don't notice 241 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: that there's anything else in the area. And this is 242 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: a very standard practice that goes all the way back 243 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: to World War Two. There's a tendency to really overestimate 244 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 1: our capabilities and underestimate both the capabilities of our opponents 245 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: but also their determination. It was the Nazis who used 246 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: to put their submarines under merchant ships to cross the 247 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 1: Strait into the Mediterranean, and so we know about these things. 248 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: I've been to Moscow and I've talked to their leaders, 249 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: and they see us as their number one enemy. And 250 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: in Iran, I'm certain it's even worse based on the 251 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: reports you see coming out of there. And we have 252 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: to be aware of this part of the challenges as 253 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: we try to indicate and shake them. It's the people 254 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: that you pay to be paranoid, aren't. If you've been 255 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: studying step for twenty or thirty years in a bureaucratic environment, 256 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: you don't think about how really dangerous it could be 257 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: because it hasn't been, and so it's easy to say, well, 258 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: let's not overreact in shakedown. And they are going to 259 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 1: go out there and they're going to do it because 260 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: they believe in it, and if their boss doesn't get it, 261 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: tough break. And they all have the attitude, Look, if 262 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: you have to fire my that'll be okay, But I'm 263 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 1: going to do my duty as I see it. My 264 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: hope is that when people read Shakedown, they'll both get 265 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 1: a sense of how dangerous the world is, but they'll 266 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: also get a sense of how really important it is 267 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: to cultivate and encourage the heroic patriots who are willing 268 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 1: to risk their career as well as their lives. And sometimes, 269 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 1: you know, it takes more courage to risk your career 270 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 1: than to risk your life, because when you're not risking 271 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: your life, you normally have the people on your side 272 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: with you. When you're risking your career, you often o 273 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 1: the people closest to you against you. One of things 274 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 1: that I'm proud of of is that with Brickyard and Valeriebury, 275 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: we've created characters who I think live up to the 276 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 1: best of the American tradition. I really want people to 277 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: know that I'm extraordinarily proud to work with you on 278 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: these and I'm frankly looking forward to the next adventure. 279 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: So thank you very much. Well, feelings are mutual. Thank you, 280 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: my co author of Shakedown, Pete Early shares how he 281 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: got his start writing books, from spending a year in 282 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: level with prison, to meeting American spies, to being nominated 283 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: for a Pulitzer Prize for a book about his son 284 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 1: and Newts Inner Circle dot com. It's a subscription service 285 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 1: where I offer insights and commentary on the issues that 286 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,719 Speaker 1: matter to me. Most joined today at Newt Center circle 287 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,160 Speaker 1: dot com. When we come back, I'll be joined by 288 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: doctor Jeffrey Mankoff from the Center for Strategic and National 289 00:18:53,640 --> 00:19:12,639 Speaker 1: Studies and we'll talk about real Russian press. Jeffrey, thanks 290 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: for joining me today. I wanted to have you on 291 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,239 Speaker 1: because there's so much in Shakedown that is inspired by 292 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: real life events, and I thought you can give us 293 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: some insights on Russian threats given your area of expertise. 294 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 1: You know, we Shakedown on two big ideas. One that 295 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:34,159 Speaker 1: there was a study done by the US and we 296 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: believe picked up on by the Soviets twenty years later, 297 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: that you could in fact create a tsunami if you 298 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 1: had a hydrogen weapon underwater. This is a very serious 299 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: project that they only decided not to do. And then second, 300 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 1: we suggest that you could have a natural alliance between 301 00:19:55,680 --> 00:20:00,679 Speaker 1: the Iranians and the Russians because each has a interest 302 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: in trying to find a way to weaken us. When 303 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 1: you think about how the world's evolved, how do you 304 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: see the development of Russia and its relationship with other countries. 305 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 1: For a lot of the Russian elite, the Cold War 306 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 1: is a model in the sense that the Soviet Union 307 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: was a country that had to be taken seriously, that 308 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: the United States couldn't take any major decision anywhere in 309 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: the world without taking the Soviet response into consideration. That 310 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: framework crumbled once the Soviet Union was no longer around. 311 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 1: We tried to preserve elements of it in the early nineties. 312 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: By just a couple of years into the post Soviet period, 313 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 1: it was clear that the US was not inclined to 314 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:53,159 Speaker 1: consider itself constrained by Russian views the way that it 315 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: was constrained by Soviet views before. In nineteen ninety one, 316 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: in his notorious Munich speech into that was in seven, 317 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: Putin said, one country, the United States, is overstepping its 318 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 1: bounds in all areas. And who can feel safe and 319 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 1: who likes this? Well, nobody and by nobody, who really 320 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: meant Russia. But I think what we've seen in recent 321 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: years is Russia has been effective at working with other 322 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 1: partners who dislike or uncomfortable with the idea of unconstrained 323 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: American power. The one that gets the most attention, of course, 324 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 1: is China, whose views of the international system in US 325 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 1: leadership are different than Russia's, but they intersect enough that 326 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: there's some opportunities for the two to work together. Russia 327 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: has also been able to partner to varying degrees with Iran. 328 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 1: I think Iran is an interesting example because that's a 329 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: very complicated relationship. Russia has been for the most part, 330 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: very consistent in opposing Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear 331 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 1: capability and certainly nuclear weapons, but in a lot of 332 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 1: other ways has sought to position itself as a partner 333 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: for Terran. Certainly, they're working together in Syria where they 334 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 1: have a shared interest in propping up the Assad government 335 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: in limiting the ability of the US to establish a 336 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 1: toehold in Syria, but at the same time they have 337 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 1: other areas where their interest on align. I think Russia 338 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: and Iran are still rivals, so it's a complicated relationship, 339 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: but to the extent that it focuses on shared concern 340 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 1: about the United States. Russia and Iran have been able 341 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 1: to work together. One of the themes we're wanting to 342 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:42,479 Speaker 1: build is this notion that you could also have people 343 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: operating on their own. To a certain extent, we have 344 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: both an Iranian who is part of the KOD's force 345 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:53,120 Speaker 1: but also has his own interests in his own hatred 346 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 1: of America. We have a Russian oligarch who is aw 347 00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 1: allied with Putin, but not automatically subserviable. There's a year 348 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: since that all the oligarchs are perfectly aligned with Putin 349 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:08,120 Speaker 1: or are there some who are potentially independent actors. When 350 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,879 Speaker 1: I was living in Russian in the nineteen nineties, people 351 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 1: became oligarchs on their own, and they used wealth as 352 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: a means of getting political power. It was a bunch 353 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: of oligarchs who got together and basically convinced Deelson to 354 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: make Putin a successor. So wealth was a route to power. 355 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:33,119 Speaker 1: Since Putin has become president, it's really flipped and now 356 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: power has largely become a path to wealth. So the 357 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: people in important positions in the Kremlin and around used 358 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: that access as the means of controlling the flows of 359 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:50,120 Speaker 1: revenue and enriching themselves and their families and their patrons. 360 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: Some of the older oligarchs have managed to keep their 361 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 1: wealth by sort of towing the proper political line or 362 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: just sort of staying out of politics. So they're not 363 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: all necessarily doing the Kremlin's bidding, but their wealth their 364 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:16,479 Speaker 1: freedom are all contingent on Kremlin approval. If they crossed 365 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,439 Speaker 1: the line and they do things that the Kremlin disapproves of, 366 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 1: they can lose it all. This is what happened to 367 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 1: Nikol Kardarkowski, who was the head of the Ukos Oil Company, 368 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 1: which was Russia's largest private oil company. He got involved 369 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: in politics and was funding various opposition groups, including the Communists. 370 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: He wanted to build a pipeline that the Kremlin didn't 371 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 1: want built by a private company, and in response, he 372 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 1: was arrested, his company was dismantled. He spent ten years 373 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: in Siberia and then was eventually let go and kicked 374 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 1: out of the country. And he was kind of a 375 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,360 Speaker 1: cautionary tale. So the remaining oligarchs in Russia, they sort 376 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: of understand that there are limits to what they can 377 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: and can't do. Gain had taken this saying that his 378 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:06,920 Speaker 1: closest friend internationally was Putin. I think they've met twenty 379 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: sometimes in the last three years. They just did a 380 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 1: very large military exercise together. How much of that's real 381 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 1: and how much of it is just sort of for 382 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: show purposes. As China in particular has adopted a more 383 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: adversarial approach vies with the United States, there's been more 384 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: sign of Russian cooperation around some of these issues of 385 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 1: global order, But nonetheless, the underlying insecurities between Russia and China, 386 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: mostly on the Russian side, still exists. So the Russian 387 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:45,959 Speaker 1: military is still worried about the fact that China is 388 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 1: modernizing pretty rapidly. Russia has a big trade deficit with China. 389 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:57,399 Speaker 1: Exports mostly raw materials, oil, gas, timber, foodstuffs, minerals, and 390 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: it imports finished goods and industrial goods. It's not a 391 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,199 Speaker 1: relationship of equals, and the Russians understand that, and they 392 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 1: understand that in an ideal world, they wouldn't tie themselves 393 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,679 Speaker 1: so tightly to China. I really appreciate your taking the 394 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,640 Speaker 1: time to share with us, and I think that our 395 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 1: listeners will find your sophisticated understanding very very helpful. Thank you. 396 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: You can read an excert of my new novel Shakedown, 397 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: and learn more about the real life stories that inspired 398 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,840 Speaker 1: our plot on our show page at newtsworld dot com. 399 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 1: Newts World is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. 400 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: Our executive producer is Debbie Myers and our producer is 401 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,160 Speaker 1: Garnsey Slump. The artwork for the show was created by 402 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at Gingwish three sixty. 403 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 1: Please email me with your comments at newt at newtsworld 404 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 1: dot com. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll 405 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 1: go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us with five 406 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 1: stars and give us a review so others can learn 407 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: what it's all about and the next episode of New World. 408 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: As the coronavirus continues to spread across the United States 409 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: and more and more cities and towns are being asked 410 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 1: to shelter in place, our economy has taken a temporary 411 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 1: economic hit. Congress just passed a two point two trillion 412 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,959 Speaker 1: dollar economic stimulus package, the largest aid package in history, 413 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,280 Speaker 1: to help boast of the economy. During this time, we'll 414 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: discuss how best to restart the economy and what needs 415 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 1: to happen next, I'm new English. This is a new world.