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Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of is information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree?

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Speaker 2: I've five dollars?

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Speaker 3: This is a rale leve of they tackle.

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Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need sansay to be.

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Speaker 3: My goodness, I don't mispeaks the best, relentless, refusing to

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Speaker 3: give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless theirs? What is up?

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Speaker 3: Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast from the Action Network

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy Labs. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, joined as

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Speaker 2: always by the one the only Action Network director of

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Speaker 2: Predictive Analytics, one of the best fantasy football rankers and

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Speaker 2: projectors and betters in the busy odds.

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Speaker 3: Maker Sean Kerner. Sean, what's going on?

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Speaker 1: God? Just you know, living it up. You know, I

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Speaker 1: feel like the big Oldowska. I don't even know what

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Speaker 1: of the week. It is, just enjoying some time, the

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Speaker 1: calm before the storm, so to speak, before the next

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Speaker 1: couple of months ramp up with the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Well, you showed up for the podcast, so you did

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Speaker 2: something right.

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Speaker 3: There. You go.

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Speaker 2: All sports betters, even though it's betting for years, we

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Speaker 2: know you can use a little brush up on the basics,

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Speaker 2: uh answer more advanced tactics. And as for the newer betters,

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Speaker 2: this is I think a great opportunity to have some

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Speaker 2: questions answered. We're going to go through uh sports betting

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Speaker 2: best practices, whether you're a newbie, whether you are a

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Speaker 2: veteran in the game. I promise you're gonna get something

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Speaker 2: out of this episode. Sean and I haven't betting basically

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Speaker 2: every single day for a very long time. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: before we joined this company for sure, and we've been

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Speaker 2: here quite quite a while.

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Speaker 3: Uh, definitely over five years now.

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Speaker 2: It's I think like, yeah, right, yeah, So it's been

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Speaker 2: a while, and so we have a lot of thoughts

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Speaker 2: and just full tips and tidbits that we can give out.

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Speaker 2: And the industry's always evolving too, so I think that's important.

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Speaker 2: We'll kind of discuss that as well. How you can

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Speaker 2: stay ahead of the game, keep improving, keep your profits up,

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Speaker 2: keep your bankroll going steady. So that is the spirit

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Speaker 2: of today's episode.

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Speaker 3: So let's get right into it, Sean.

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Speaker 2: I'll hit you with the crashes first and then I'll

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Speaker 2: kind of follow up. So let's get into it, Sean.

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Speaker 2: In any sports specifically NFL, though, when do you think

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Speaker 2: you should bet early versus closer to start time? And

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Speaker 2: when I say bet early, I mean soon after the

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Speaker 2: opening lines have dropped versus you know, start time, which

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Speaker 2: is obviously for football kind of right there reading up

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Speaker 2: to kick off in the minutes or maybe hours before that.

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Speaker 2: When do you think when do you think the best

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Speaker 2: time is to kind of go early versus later?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So for me personally, it just comes down to,

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Speaker 1: you know what direction I think the line will go,

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Speaker 1: and the goal is always to get the best number possible,

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Speaker 1: like that's the ultimate goal. So if if I think

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be fading a poppylar play, like let's say,

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Speaker 1: for some reason, I'm showing die on Saquon Barkley to

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Speaker 1: go under his rushing yards for whatever reason, that's a

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Speaker 1: market where I know that ninety plus percent of people

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Speaker 1: are going to be all over is over, which you know,

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Speaker 1: more times than not, his his prop might slightly go

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Speaker 1: up up until you know, kickoff. So that's that's a

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Speaker 1: situation where I might lay off and kind of wait

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Speaker 1: for the line to get inflated and then possibly go

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Speaker 1: under once I think it's peaked on the flip side.

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Speaker 1: If I'm showing a ton of value on something and

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Speaker 1: I think the market's going to see it as well,

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Speaker 1: like a Wandel Robinson under or something like that, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to try to take that immediately because I think

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Speaker 1: the market's going to catch on and it's just you know,

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Speaker 1: a bad opening number or a bad early market for that.

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Speaker 1: So I think when it comes to deciding to go

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Speaker 1: earlier or later, you just have to decide which direction

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Speaker 1: you think the line's gonna go. If the market's gonna

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Speaker 1: be all over it, you have to get on it early.

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Speaker 1: If you think you're kind of fading the market, so

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Speaker 1: to speak, you can kind of wait and let that

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Speaker 1: number get inflated. So that's how the battle and I'm

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Speaker 1: not always right about it, so it's you know, part

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Speaker 1: of the game. But for me, it's just assessing personally

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Speaker 1: which direction I think the line's gonna go. Where at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, we're just trying to get

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Speaker 1: the best number possible and timing that, you know, betting

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week or later in the week often

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Speaker 1: makes a difference in that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think for me it's I kind of start

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Speaker 2: with the default expectation that overs favorites are gonna kind

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Speaker 2: of the line is going to move in that direction

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Speaker 2: and then adjust from there. So there are times when,

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Speaker 2: for example, you mentioned like a Saquon Barkley prop. Usually

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Speaker 2: those are gonna be overs, But every once in a

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Speaker 2: while there's gonna be like a trendy under pick it

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Speaker 2: for a prop or you know, every week the NFL

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Speaker 2: there's usually maybe one or two trendy underdog picks that

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Speaker 2: you know the public is kind of uh piling on.

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Speaker 2: And with the with the games, you can always see

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Speaker 2: those bet percentages, money percentages and the action network at

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Speaker 2: we're generally looking at bet percentage when we talk about

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Speaker 2: the public, but the money can't factor in because that's

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Speaker 2: that's what the book is adjusting to. But with props,

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Speaker 2: you just kind of have to assume that it's going

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Speaker 2: to be an over, and just because more markets exist

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Speaker 2: with overs anyway. And then you know, if it's kind

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Speaker 2: of a trendy under you probably realize that during the

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Speaker 2: week if you're really you know, paying attention or whatnot.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think if if the.

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Speaker 2: Line is moving with you, you want to kind of

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Speaker 2: get on it. If it's going to move against you,

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Speaker 2: then you can wait, all right, Sean, here's a here's

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Speaker 2: a question that I think has become way more relevant

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Speaker 2: than maybe we wanted it to be for for for

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Speaker 2: people's bank rows, but it's here to stay. So I

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Speaker 2: have to ask you, what's your approach to parlays are?

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Speaker 2: And do you think there are like smart expert kind

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Speaker 2: of ways to bet at parlay because I know we

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Speaker 2: are a little bit anti parlay here just from a

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Speaker 2: numbers perspective, So you know, what is your approach? What

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Speaker 2: do you how do you think the smartest way to

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Speaker 2: go about parways are? And does anything change with you

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Speaker 2: know that same game paraways just versus parlays at large

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Speaker 2: for you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? So I mean I personally focus on straight bets.

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Speaker 1: You know, I definitely don't do as many parlays as

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Speaker 1: your average better, but if you treat them like what

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Speaker 1: they are, you know, for entertainment purposes, they are a

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Speaker 1: ton of fun. So I'm not some stiff. I do

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Speaker 1: bet parlays for fun. I mean, we me and you

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Speaker 1: bet on ski ball at blind Donkey like we're you know,

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Speaker 1: we have part DGN DNA. So there's part of that

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Speaker 1: when it comes to parlays too. But I think there

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Speaker 1: are sharp ways to do them. You know, I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: projecting every game, every team, every player, So I like

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Speaker 1: finding angles for like a matchup if everything lines up,

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Speaker 1: especially for an SGP same game parlay. So the first

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Speaker 1: thing is you typically want to you know, parlay things

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Speaker 1: that are correlated. So if you take Patrick Mahomes to

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Speaker 1: go over his passing yards prop Travis Kelcey's over receiving yards,

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Speaker 1: makes a ton of sense because they're very correlated. The

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Speaker 1: books know that, though, so they're going to you know,

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Speaker 1: reduce the payout for things like that. So it's it's

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Speaker 1: not as simple as just taking things that are correlated. Right.

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Speaker 1: So one of the things that I found, like the

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Speaker 1: sharp way to do parlays or find things that you know,

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Speaker 1: the book is treating as anti correlated reverse correlation things,

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Speaker 1: but they actually correlate more than the book is leading on.

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Speaker 1: And one of just there's many examples of this, but

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Speaker 1: one personal one that I like to do is say

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Speaker 1: someone like calv Ridley, I will take say the under

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Speaker 1: on his receptions, but the over on his receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: You know there's there's some reverse correlation there. The books

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Speaker 1: are going to kind of juice out the payout because

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Speaker 1: you know you're threading the needle there. But a player

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Speaker 1: like him, he's not going to catch many passes or

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Speaker 1: he's going to get a ton of downfield low you know,

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Speaker 1: probability targets, but when he does catch them, he tends

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Speaker 1: to get a ton of yards, so it actually sets

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Speaker 1: up well for him specifically. So those are kind of

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Speaker 1: like thread the needle type parlayshere you're going to get

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Speaker 1: a bigger payout because the book is saying this isn't

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Speaker 1: that correlated, but a quartering of my projections, my sims,

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Speaker 1: all my crazy you know math third stuff, it is

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Speaker 1: correlated in a sense. So I found doing things like

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Speaker 1: that you kind of get more value as opposed to

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Speaker 1: just finding things that are very highly correlated, where the

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Speaker 1: book already knows that. So I found, you know, doing

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Speaker 1: creative things like that is one of the best ways

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Speaker 1: to actually be sharp when it comes to betting parlays

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Speaker 1: or sgps.

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Speaker 3: I like that.

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Speaker 2: I like because this is one of the questions where

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Speaker 2: I think it's funny because and maybe that's how you know,

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Speaker 2: parways are all over the place in terms of expected value,

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Speaker 2: but like I approach them actually completely different especially in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. I don't really look for correlations anymore because

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Speaker 2: I do feel like half the time I can't even

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Speaker 2: I can't even put them in a parway together. The

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Speaker 2: books have really smartened. Second of all, to your point,

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Speaker 2: you're starting to get lines that they're not even what

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Speaker 2: they would be individually if you just parlay them like

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Speaker 2: the book is. Actually it's kind they're kind of treating

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Speaker 2: them like a teaser or something, where it's you know,

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Speaker 2: they're they're setting a specific price. So what I try

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Speaker 2: to do is I just look at gamescripts at large.

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Speaker 2: I almost treat it like you know, you and I

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Speaker 2: have talked about in the past about dfs lineups and

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Speaker 2: you know, getting them to tell a story. Well, you know,

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Speaker 2: if there's a certain team, like let's say in basketball,

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Speaker 2: the Oklahoma City Thunder at home in the playoffs just

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Speaker 2: been ridiculous. So I'm just gonna play a lot of different,

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Speaker 2: you know, kind of plays that correlate with that with

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Speaker 2: my one specific outcome. But I'm not necessarily looking for

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Speaker 2: like you know, it has to be like low three

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Speaker 2: pointers and low assists, which you know do correlate to

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Speaker 2: each other. It's just whatever I think is undervalued. And

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Speaker 2: that's the other key I think for me, I found

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Speaker 2: it's just you know, because it's parways, and especially with

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Speaker 2: the rise of the Same Game partway, everyone's trying to

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Speaker 2: look for these correlations and these things, and I think

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Speaker 2: the better time is spent if you're gonna spend time researching,

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Speaker 2: just find plus EV bets and even if they're plus

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Speaker 2: even if they're you know, minus juice, because those are

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Speaker 2: the ones a lot of people stay away from, but

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Speaker 2: a lot of times they have the most value. So

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Speaker 2: if you like a lot of people who know follow

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Speaker 2: me the action, have no like when I go on

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Speaker 2: a hot streaks, I'll I'll rattle off four or five

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Speaker 2: six bets. I won't put them in a parlay in

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Speaker 2: the app, but a lot of them will be those

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Speaker 2: like negative juice bets that are just you know, still

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Speaker 2: plus EV and that's how they if you wanted to parlay,

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Speaker 2: and you get a pretty good return. So that's how

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Speaker 2: I kind of look at it now, because I just

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Speaker 2: think the market has gotten so sharp and I don't

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Speaker 2: want to keep like kind of switching up my process

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Speaker 2: just for the market to like catch on anyway, So

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Speaker 2: I just kind of continue to focus on the best

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Speaker 2: value bets and usually there's more than one or two

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Speaker 2: on a slate and and kind of go from there.

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Speaker 2: All right, Teasers kind of a related topic to parlays

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Speaker 2: is the core value shown of the NFL teaser mostly dead.

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Speaker 2: They were big, you know, back in the day before

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Speaker 2: sports betting. I think got all the fame and popularity

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Speaker 2: and but you know, what is your approach with teasers?

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Speaker 3: What are your thought on teasers?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not a big teaser better but our guy

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Speaker 1: Stuck he is, and he has a really great article

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Speaker 1: that was recently posted on Action Network, so go check

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Speaker 1: it out. But he talks about, you know, getting those

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Speaker 1: six point teasers for the NFL, where you know, you

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Speaker 1: get the key numbers of three and seven. So if

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Speaker 1: you're taking an underdog, you know plus two and a

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Speaker 1: half goes to plus eight and a half, or if

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Speaker 1: you take the favorite, minus seven and a half goes

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Speaker 1: down to minus one and a half. Those are still

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Speaker 1: you know a sharp angle. But as always, you know,

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Speaker 1: the books have adjusted, so you know, oftentimes they offer

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Speaker 1: it minus one thirty And that's where he's saying that,

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Speaker 1: you know, the value is kind of shot. But some

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Speaker 1: books you know, they offer it at minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: or better, and that's still you know, offering value. So

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Speaker 1: and there's things that you know can make that even

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Speaker 1: more valuable. So if the total for that game is low,

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Speaker 1: it means you know, the points are going to be

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Speaker 1: more at a premium in that game, So you know,

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Speaker 1: getting points in a teaser is going to be more valuable.

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Speaker 1: And even you know, identifying you know, the quality the

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Speaker 1: kickers in the game. Kicking has been kind of an

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Speaker 1: issue NFL, especially since they backed up dexter point. So

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Speaker 1: you know, if the kickers are two quality kickers in

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Speaker 1: that game, it's probably more likely you know, the key

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Speaker 1: numbers are going to be valuable. So no, I don't think,

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Speaker 1: you know, teaser value is totally dead. It's harder to find.

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Speaker 1: You just need to be selective and make sure that

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Speaker 1: you're getting say minus one twenty odds or better when

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Speaker 1: you are doing these six point teasers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the teaser is It's definitely something

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Speaker 2: I've pulled back on over the past few years, and

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Speaker 2: I would say it probably is mostly dead at large,

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Speaker 2: only because with the rise of all these other types

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Speaker 2: of parlays, you can make same game parlays. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the teasers are pretty unsexy way to go about parlaying

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Speaker 2: at this point because you're kind of parlaying the variants

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Speaker 2: and trying to keep the odds the same. So that's

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Speaker 2: why it's so important that you get you know, minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty or left you know, the normal odds, or

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Speaker 2: minus one ten, which means, you know, bet one ten

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Speaker 2: win one hundred. You don't want to really go above

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Speaker 2: minus you know, bet one twenty win one hundred, because

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Speaker 2: all you're trying to do is say, okay with two

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Speaker 2: outcomes with points, you know, with this six point variants.

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Speaker 2: Either way, I can kind of you know, cobble together.

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Speaker 2: I have some you know, wiggle rooms to kind of

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Speaker 2: coddle together two winning bets, and and I can hit

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Speaker 2: that at the rate that I would normally hit single.

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Speaker 2: So it's just like instead of parlaying with as you parlay,

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Speaker 2: the juice increases. As you parlay, your margin forever increases

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Speaker 2: with a teaser. But I think with the rise of

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Speaker 2: and Sean, tell me if this has impacted because I

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Speaker 2: always think this is a fascinating topic, especially when we're

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Speaker 2: talking about NFL these last few years, because you kind

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Speaker 2: of had like the COVID year, which was somewhat of

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Speaker 2: an outlier because of the no home road and then

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Speaker 2: you had, you know, all these rule changes with the

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Speaker 2: kickoff and a different field position and different things.

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Speaker 3: Do you think just the rise.

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Speaker 2: Of kind of the current style of NFL players also

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Speaker 2: kind of cut into the profit of teasers. And when

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Speaker 2: I say that, I mean more teams going for two,

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Speaker 2: which means you know, less predictable scores, teams going for

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Speaker 2: two when they're down, you know, multiple scores before they

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Speaker 2: actually have to like exkewing field goals and things like that.

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Speaker 3: Do you think that kind of plays into it as well?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a great point, and it kind of

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Speaker 1: increases the range of outcomes which you don't want when

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Speaker 1: it comes to teasers. That's an excellent point. Yeah. You

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Speaker 1: have coaches going for and fourth down, you know, they're

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Speaker 1: down by ten points with a minute left in the game,

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Speaker 1: and they settle for the field goal and they try

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Speaker 1: to do it on side kick. There's like all these

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Speaker 1: different coaching changes, and like I said, the kickers having

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Speaker 1: to you know make a thirty three yard field goal

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Speaker 1: for next point. Now that has impacted as well. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think you're right. I think just the style of play,

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Speaker 1: coaching decisions, things like that has kind of widened the

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Speaker 1: range of outcomes, which you don't really want in a

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Speaker 1: teaser because you kind of want those points to be valuable.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree with that. I think that the

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Speaker 1: way the NFL is changing has kind of shifted the

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Speaker 1: value away from teasers as well.

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Speaker 2: And I should mention, you know, key numbers with Sean

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Speaker 2: mentioned at the top, those are generally just numbers that

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Speaker 2: the outcome lands on slow, three, six, seven in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: But again, those are just getting more kind of all

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Speaker 2: over the place with the way teams strategically are going

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Speaker 2: about things at.

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Speaker 3: This day and age.

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Speaker 2: So that's something to keep an eye on, all right.

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Speaker 2: Next up, let's talk about bank roll when and how

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Speaker 2: to manage it. Sean looking up the upcoming NFL season,

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Speaker 2: for example, is identifying like a specific personal bank will

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Speaker 2: amount something that you do or how do you kind

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Speaker 2: of how do you recommend people manage their bank? Well,

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Speaker 2: how do you manage yours? You know, I'm assuming your

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Speaker 2: is a little large than the average. That's I also say,

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Speaker 2: you know, how do you recommend people maybe a little

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Speaker 2: you know, just starting out manage their bankroll.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so bank roll management is such an underrated critical

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Speaker 1: part when it comes to sports betting. H Yes, you know,

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Speaker 1: winning more bets than you lose is essential. That's what

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Speaker 1: we're trying to do here. But I've seen people lose

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Speaker 1: money despite having a high win rate. You know, for example,

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Speaker 1: you can go seven and three betting on you know,

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Speaker 1: minus one ten markets and end up down units. If

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Speaker 1: you say, you know, one of those losses, you risk

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Speaker 1: five times as much as you did and of your

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Speaker 1: other bets. So I think it's it's key just being

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Speaker 1: discipline when it comes a bankroll. So yeah, heading into

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Speaker 1: week one, it's important to start. I think it's important

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Speaker 1: to start with, you know, a set bankroll amount and

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Speaker 1: a set unit size. That's critical. The key is just

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Speaker 1: to be consistent and have a set unit size that's

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Speaker 1: say a fraction of your bank roll. It could be

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Speaker 1: two percent. Let's say. That means you know, as your

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Speaker 1: bankroll grows or shrinks, your unit size could go up

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Speaker 1: or down. And and one way to also approach this

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Speaker 1: is there's something called the Kelly criterion strategy. It's a

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Speaker 1: great way to accomplish this, especially if you're like me

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Speaker 1: and you're making projections for things you have an exact

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Speaker 1: edge or theory edge. I think it's probably a bit

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Speaker 1: too aggressive, So I would typically do like a quarter

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Speaker 1: Kelly if you do go down that road. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm limited, and especially when it comes to props,

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Speaker 1: I'm limited, so I don't get to apply that as much.

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Speaker 1: I'm just max betting, trying to get as much money

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Speaker 1: down if I see an edge. Yeah, but if if

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Speaker 1: you're doing it the right way, you have a bankroll,

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Speaker 1: you know, strict unit size, a two percent of your

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Speaker 1: bankroll that's going to let you survive the inevitable you know,

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Speaker 1: rough patches that come up, and it prevents you from

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Speaker 1: tilting and chasing losses, which is a different thing, but

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Speaker 1: it just lets you be more stable and if you're

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Speaker 1: winning more bets than not, your bankroll will continue to grow.

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Speaker 1: And like I said, I if you're winning bets, your

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Speaker 1: bet size can actually go up. That's part of the strategy.

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Speaker 1: So I think just going in with the approach of

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Speaker 1: being you know, stable and consistent with your you know,

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Speaker 1: unit size, I think it's critical and it's it's often

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Speaker 1: overlooked when it comes to sports betting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And I would say that I would just add

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Speaker 2: that that is that's kind of like almost like the

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Speaker 2: ideal you're aiming for, because I will say, like, we

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Speaker 2: know we have some information on you know, the average better,

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Speaker 2: and we know the average better is only spending like

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Speaker 2: five bucks and probably spending a you know, probably parlaying

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Speaker 2: some stuff.

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Speaker 3: So I would say you could be more.

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Speaker 2: Aggressive when you're talking about like, you know, double figure

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Speaker 2: bank roll amounts or triple figure bank roll amounts. Like

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Speaker 2: when you really start wanting to be consistent and you're

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Speaker 2: is when you have a substantial bank roll to work with,

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Speaker 2: I think, and you actually can see yourself because to me,

386
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Speaker 2: it's like you have to care. You also have to

387
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Speaker 2: find us a point where you actually care about the

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00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,359
Speaker 2: bets you're making. You know, it can't be so small

389
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Speaker 2: that you just don't even care, but it can't be

390
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,440
Speaker 2: so big that you're like in danger of losing everything

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Speaker 2: with a coup a losing streak.

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Speaker 3: So I would say there is a little pushing poto.

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Speaker 2: It, especially if you're just starting out, Like if you're

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Speaker 2: starting out and you're just gonna be kind of betting

395
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Speaker 2: five our parways every day, or every week until you

396
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Speaker 2: hit it big and like you just allocate five dollars

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Speaker 2: a week and that'ss like, yeah, use one hundred percent

398
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Speaker 2: of your bank roll because it's like, you know what

399
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Speaker 2: I mean, you're gonna like you're gonna want to get

400
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Speaker 2: that one big hit and then then I think it

401
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Speaker 2: means a lot more like once I would say, once

402
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Speaker 2: you hit four figures, especially, that's when you really want

403
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 2: to start like making sure that your unit size is

404
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 2: a consistent percentage of your bankroll. Like I think Sean

405
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 2: you were you were saying, like so it's like if

406
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Speaker 2: you're winning more, your unit size is naturally going up exactly.

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Speaker 3: That's really important.

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Speaker 2: I would also say to your point, Sean, one of

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Speaker 2: the biggest things in terms of bankroll management, once you're

410
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Speaker 2: at a place where you're comfortable with your bankroll and

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Speaker 2: it's not just you're not just throwing parlays at the

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Speaker 2: word to try to.

413
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Speaker 3: Build one I would say is line shopping.

414
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Speaker 2: Like you you need to you need to be on

415
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Speaker 2: multiple sites because ak those limits that Sean mentioned on

416
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 2: parlays can catch up to you really quickly and you

417
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 2: don't always You're not gonna always be able to predict

418
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Speaker 2: the limit. That's another thing like it maybe one thing

419
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Speaker 2: if a site was just like you can you can't

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Speaker 2: only bet one hundred hours on parlays or something like that.

421
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Speaker 2: But I've been at sites where one day it's like

422
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Speaker 2: you can only bet a thousand. Next day, you can

423
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Speaker 2: only but one hundred next day with this specific prop

424
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Speaker 2: you can only bet three twenty eight eighty six or

425
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Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like it doesn't it's not consistent,

426
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Speaker 2: and so you have to be prepared to, like, if

427
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Speaker 2: you want to follow that bankroll strategy of kind of

428
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Speaker 2: keeping it a consistent percentage, you have to be prepared

429
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Speaker 2: to get money down on multiple sites and do it quickly,

430
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Speaker 2: or you're gonna move your own line if you're you know,

431
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Speaker 2: sometimes like if you're if you're talking about props like

432
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Speaker 2: these things can be very very sensitive.

433
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 1: So, like I.

434
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 2: Would say, the more the more you really are serious

435
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 2: about managing your bankroll, you're gonna want to have multiple

436
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 2: sites and book sports books at your disposal, just to

437
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 2: to kind of alleviate that and that uncertainty of not

438
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 2: knowing what your limit might be or making sure that

439
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: you can actually you know, get in and get down

440
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 2: all the plus ev bets that you'll maybe you're following

441
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: Sean and that he's putting out because not every bet

442
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 2: is available on every book, not every line and number

443
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 2: is available every book. So I think, I think that

444
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 2: having a multitude of options is actually very important to

445
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 2: back romantically.

446
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 3: At least it has been my cases.

447
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: My bank roll has has grown compared to when I

448
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: first just started out. All right, Sean, here's a here's

449
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 2: another one that you know in the betting industry, I

450
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 2: don't even know if we notice these because they're they're

451
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: so common, but I'm sure, uh, I know for a

452
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 2: fact that you know, people newer to the game kind of.

453
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: Feel inundated, inundated with these.

454
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: And then I'm talking about uh, sports book cash out

455
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: offers and like you know, make a you make a

456
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 2: pick and then it's not even decided yet, and just

457
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 2: and or you have a bunch of bets and they're

458
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 2: all there are all these little different cash out amounts

459
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 2: and they're kind of just based on the current I

460
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 2: guess value. You could say, I know you've you've done

461
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 2: some work with in the action app Sean kind of

462
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 2: doing kind of calculating real live odds. So Essentially, these

463
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 2: cash out offers are based on real life should people

464
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 2: be taking them? Are those kind of overvalued in your experience?

465
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,400
Speaker 2: Kind of like parlors?

466
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is something that's it's going to

467
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,400
Speaker 1: be up to the individual when it comes to risk

468
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: management and whether you want to cash out or not.

469
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 1: I think it's a case by case basis, But I

470
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: think when it comes to the cash out price, it's

471
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: critical to assess, you know, what's the current fair price,

472
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 1: what should it be to cash out the bet? I

473
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: think you'll often find sportsbooks are cutting off even more

474
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 1: than you should get if you already simply heads your

475
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 1: bet and just bet the opposite side for to lose.

476
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: So I think you always want to check if it's

477
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: available to see how much you would cash out by

478
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 1: simply hedging the natural way of just betting against your

479
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 1: current bet. You might find you know you're getting more

480
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: value by doing that, But you really want to just

481
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: assess what the proper cash out should be before you

482
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: even make that decision. I think right now you have

483
00:23:55,200 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 1: that the guy that bet thirteen dollars that part with

484
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,719
Speaker 1: all the championships, where you know the payout's over two

485
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars if the Thunder and the Oilers both

486
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: win their respective championships right now, and that the cash

487
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: out option was like over one hundred thousand dollars, and

488
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: people are saying he should absolutely cash out. I'm saying

489
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 1: it's up to him, but you have to think of

490
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 1: it as you know, you're he's essentially betting one hundred

491
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,439
Speaker 1: grand to win two hundred grand right now. So if

492
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 1: he still feels like he has an edge where you know,

493
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: the oil, Oilers and Thunder are still undervalued and he

494
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: wants to take on that risk, he could do it.

495
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 1: That's that's more of a personal decision. If one hundred

496
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 1: thousand dollars is life changing for you, then by all

497
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 1: means you can cash out as opposed to waiting to

498
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: see if it turns into two hundred thousand. So that's

499
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 1: why I say it's a personal choice. You know what

500
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: you're trying to accomplish, But when it comes to the odds,

501
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: like I said, you're you're gonna have to calculate how

502
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: much you think it should be worth. And I think

503
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: you'll find books are cutting off more than just letting

504
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 1: it ride more times than not. So in my case,

505
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: I'm to just letting it ride. There's very few situations

506
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 1: where I would honestly cash out. I think one random

507
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: example I could think of is, you know, I go

508
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 1: into a game, let's say, a bet on a baseball

509
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 1: team because I like the starting pitcher, and then the

510
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: second inning, you know, there's a shit ton of rain.

511
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 1: There's going to be like an over hour long delay.

512
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: My picture is going to be gone. I might decide

513
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 1: at that point I want to cash out because my

514
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: perceived edge is gone and I'm just trying to get

515
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 1: out of the bet. But there's very few cases where

516
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: I think I personally would do that. So again, this

517
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: is something that it's up to the individual on just

518
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: that the risk that you want to take on. If

519
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 1: if you're able to cash out, you know, have a

520
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: considerable profit, It's really up to you if you want

521
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: to make that color or not.

522
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, for me, it's just like a hard No.

523
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 2: I feel like we're not sponsored by anyone in this episode, right, Yeah,

524
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 2: no sportsbook.

525
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm just gonna say no.

526
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,479
Speaker 2: I feel like all these are marketing opportunities and for

527
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 2: the sportsbook or just kind of opportunities to take advantage

528
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 2: of the fact that the average person doesn't know how

529
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 2: to calculate that hedge opportunity.

530
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 3: And really that's all it is.

531
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 2: It's like you said in the previous example, when you're

532
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 2: talking about, Okay, somebody needs the Oilers and the Thunders

533
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 2: to both win their respective championships. Well, Thunder in a

534
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 2: good spot. So really, what you would do? You know,

535
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 2: the Oilers that are down as we record this anyway,

536
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: Uh so you would you would kind of look at uh,

537
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 2: you know, facing a bet on the on on Florida

538
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 2: right like that.

539
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 3: That's kind of how you would.

540
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 2: You would you would hedge out and you could probably

541
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: get a better So that's the advantage of when you

542
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 2: have a ticket that's even worse cashing out in the

543
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 2: first place. It the advantage of that is now you're

544
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 2: in position to hedge and things. So that's why you know,

545
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 2: we talk about, for example, I just did a you know,

546
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 2: a bunch of Action Network podcasts, but Stucky and I

547
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 2: talked about how I want multiple Super Bowl tickets, you know,

548
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 2: in each conference, like I want to the Bills and

549
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: the Ravens and the Chiefs, Nancy, and I want the

550
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 2: Rams and the Niners. And it's like, well, why would

551
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,479
Speaker 2: you bet only two teams only one team could win

552
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: the Super Bowls because you want that ticket.

553
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 3: So when you get to the second round of.

554
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: The playoffs, so you get to the NFC Championship, and

555
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 2: you're one of your teams, are both multiple teams that

556
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 2: you have tickets for are in there, now you can

557
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 2: really start hedging. You just picking you know, the team

558
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,679
Speaker 2: that you don't have to win or lose, or you know,

559
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 2: doing it evenly with the amount you know of of

560
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 2: that you have risks in the first place. So that's

561
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 2: that's kind of the goal with these things. So a

562
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 2: lot of times if you're just looking at what the

563
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: book is offering, they know what that goal is too,

564
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 2: and they know the price of simply hedging it, and

565
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 2: they're probably going to charge you just like a normal

566
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: vague premium or something like another ten percent over you know,

567
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 2: the ten or fifteen percent that you're already paid for

568
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 2: that future that bet or whatever it was.

569
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 3: So yeah, it would almost be a hard note for me.

570
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 2: But I'd say, if you're in position to do it,

571
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 2: you need to calculate what, like like Sean said, just

572
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 2: what would be the price if I just bet the

573
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 2: opposite thing?

574
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 3: And kind of hedge it that way.

575
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: And we have a hedging calculator Action Network dot com

576
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 2: and for use in the Action app where you can

577
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 2: put in as many bets as you want, the odds,

578
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 2: the amount of units you put down, and it can

579
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 2: kind of calculate the optimal percentage. So that's another it's

580
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 2: not not quite the Kelly criterion, but it's another one

581
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 2: of those conform away things that you can use to

582
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 2: arrive at at the answer to these questions. But generally, no, don't,

583
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 2: don't take the cash out off. They know, they know,

584
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 2: they know better. Come on, they say, Vegas always knows,

585
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 2: and that's one thing we should say, Like they say,

586
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: Vegas always knows.

587
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 3: No, it doesn't. Vegas is like Sean.

588
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 2: How many times have you and I just looked at

589
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: wise and like what is Vegas thinking? And we were

590
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,239
Speaker 2: and we were right. It's Vegas doesn't always know. But

591
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 2: Vegas does always know the people that are gonna try

592
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 2: to take shortcuts, get the parlays and the and the

593
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 2: cash outs. That's what Vegas knows exactly what you need

594
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: to be careful. You don't need to you don't need

595
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 2: to think these games are rigged like they just because

596
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 2: SGA can bait Aaron Nee Smith in the foul over

597
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 2: and over doesn't mean the game is rigged. It just

598
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: means Aaron Nee Smith maybe is not like your ideals

599
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 2: starting three and a finals tea. That's what I'm so

600
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: well said, I agree, shouts Aaron nisis man, he's want

601
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 2: to be a lot of money to see. All right,

602
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: here's all right, let's here's a good question. I think

603
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 2: this one comes up a lot to the point. It's

604
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 2: I mean, this word is probably overused, almost a cliche down,

605
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: but it does have meanings.

606
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: So Shaw on value. What does value mean when it

607
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 3: comes to sports betting?

608
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 2: Uh?

609
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: Is there more than one definition? I would say inherently, yeah,

610
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: there's more than one definition, because it's whatever you perceive

611
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: it to be, right, So every better has their own

612
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: way of defining and identifying value, But at its core,

613
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: it should mean you know that you perceive the bet

614
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: to be offering positive expected value based on the current

615
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: odds are getting. So for me personally, it's very easy

616
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: to spot value because I'm making projections for everything. So

617
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: I could just see which uh bets or props I'm

618
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: showing a certain percentage value on and then I kind

619
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: of look into it further. But if the projected edge

620
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: is big enough, that's that's when I'll bet it. So

621
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 1: it's not just about you know, projecting the outcome, it's

622
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: whether the line is missed place relative to my numbers.

623
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: So in theory, you can have two people on opposite

624
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: bets at the same odds who both think they're getting value.

625
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 1: So it all comes down to how you're defining your edge,

626
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 1: and that's what makes winning sports betters. Right. If you're

627
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: more right than wrong when it comes to identifying value,

628
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: you're gonna win. So yeah, value it's such a vague

629
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: term and everybody's gonna, you know, define it their own

630
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: individual way. So that's something I don't think there's like

631
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: a right or wrong way about it because everyone's gonna

632
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 1: have their own definition. But when it comes to sports betting,

633
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: you need to have a fundamental system to identify value.

634
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: So that's that's my long winded way of saying, you know,

635
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: everyone has their own definition of what value means to them.

636
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'll I'll just say like the most

637
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 2: common way that I use it, and the most in

638
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: a way that if people are listening to us, they'll

639
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 2: probably we'll probably be using it as and that is

640
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: the inherent true odds of an outcome, which are never

641
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: known certainly, right, Like you don't know for certain what

642
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 2: percentage of time the Kansas City Chiefs would be the

643
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 2: Eagles or vice versa. But whatever that whatever you think,

644
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 2: that is the person the perceived true value versus the

645
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: impride probability of the odds themselves. So minus one ten

646
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: just means you know about fifty two and a half

647
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 2: percent chance right to win. So that's like, if you

648
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 2: think you're you're there's a fifty five percent chance that

649
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: this that wins, you know your add just two and

650
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 2: a half percent. So that's basically how value is being used.

651
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 2: Especially I think that's important to say now that we're

652
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 2: looking at parways and a lot more odds that like

653
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 2: maus one ten is not the dominant I mean, it

654
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 2: might be the most common, but it's not the dominant odds.

655
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 2: I think people are betting at anymore just because of

656
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 2: part ways and all these things. So I just think

657
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: it's if you're just looking at the perceived odds by

658
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 2: the juice, like the implied odds, and you can for

659
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 2: every juice that it implies a certain percentage likelihood of outcome,

660
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: and there's you know, there's ways to calculate that quickly

661
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 2: with calculators. You could also just add one hundred to

662
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 2: the to the numerator and denominator for negative juice bets,

663
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 2: and then you could add one hundred to the denominator

664
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 2: for positive juice bets and you divide and you get it.

665
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 3: You get it too. It's it's not that hard. But

666
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 3: look it up.

667
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna talk about I'm not gonna go that

668
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 2: crazy into the weeze on the mass.

669
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 3: But the point is that's the difference.

670
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 2: Its value is what you perceive it as versus what

671
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: the implied odds are. And I should point out because again,

672
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 2: I think it comes into a lot more. It's a

673
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: lot more easy to spot when you're actually looking at

674
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: some of these bigger juice bets, because a lot of

675
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 2: times what I see where I see the most value

676
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: is for example, not to keep going back to Aaron Nesmith,

677
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: but he's a good example here. He was turning the

678
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: ball over maybe twenty percent of the time this season,

679
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 2: and so his odds to commit like a turnover or

680
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: maybe it was one and a half whatever were in

681
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: the you know, high minus one hundred range, which you

682
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 2: know is about a widow under two to one. That's

683
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 2: about saying there's about sixty five sixty sixty five percent chance,

684
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 2: and the reality was there was like an eighty percent

685
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 2: chance that he wasn't going to turn it over instead

686
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: of like a sixty to sixty five percent, So that's

687
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 2: like a fifteen percent.

688
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 3: Edge, which is massive.

689
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 2: A lot of people don't notice those because they're they're

690
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 2: looking at like these juiced up like minus one eighty

691
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 2: as if like the juice has already been out because

692
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:54,959
Speaker 2: they suppose it's supposed to be at minus one ten. No,

693
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 2: it's not like there's no there's no saying that a

694
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: player is either going to commit a turnover or not

695
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: committed turnover fifty to fifty Like that's that's that's not

696
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: the you know, kind of baseline odds for that kind

697
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 2: of bet. So you have to be aware and for

698
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 2: the thing in the same way you could go flip

699
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 2: it where you look at a parlay and you know

700
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 2: it could be plus two hundred, which is you know,

701
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 2: about a thirty three percent chance, and you could say, hey,

702
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 2: like this.

703
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 3: Should be like fifty to fifty, this should be even money.

704
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 2: So there's major value on this plus two hundred parway,

705
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 2: even though plus two hundred maybe doesn't sound sexy to

706
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 2: some people who are betting, like you know, plus a

707
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,720
Speaker 2: thousand parlays. So it's just all about that that expected

708
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: value versus whatever the juice is implying.

709
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 3: All right, Sean. Next, let's talk about middles. You know,

710
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 3: when you have a chance to middle a bet, should

711
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 3: you take it? Is there a nice is there an?

712
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: And there is there an ideal scenario where you are

713
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: looking to middle or do these opportunities just kind of

714
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 2: pop up? And by middle I mean taking both sides

715
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 2: of the same bet at different lines.

716
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely in the ballpark of cashing out hedging, which

717
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 1: I know you don't like to do. Uh. But I've said,

718
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: I've talked about this in our discord a bunch of

719
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 1: times that I tried it to middle that much, because

720
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of times if I put a

721
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: prop out there, the line will move quite a bit.

722
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 1: And if I get in the business of middling, you know,

723
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: I don't want to look like I'm trying to manipulate

724
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 1: the market to just middle everything. So I try to

725
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 1: stay away from it.

726
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:25,720
Speaker 3: There.

727
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,720
Speaker 1: There was a good example recently where I did middle

728
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: and I made a ton of cents. I had Early

729
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 1: in the morning, I did my initial projections and I

730
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: saw a ton of value on Eduardo Rodriguez picture for

731
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks to go under five and a half strikeouts,

732
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: made the bet, did something else. Four hours later, I

733
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: came back and the official lineup was out and it

734
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 1: was awful. It was terrible, like they were going to

735
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 1: strike out a lot more than I expected, and his

736
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 1: prop was down to four and a half. I was

737
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: showing a ton of value on over four and a

738
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 1: half at that point, so at both points in time,

739
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: I was showing value on the opposite side of each other.

740
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 1: So I saw that and I said, I hate doing this,

741
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 1: but the most likely outcome is five strikeouts exactly. I

742
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: had it around like a twenty five percent chance. So

743
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 1: I said, this is a rare time. I'm going to

744
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 1: middle this bet, and so I took the over four

745
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 1: and a half strikeouts and sure enough he finished with five.

746
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: So I hit both. But that was an example of

747
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 1: like I was showing a ton of value at the

748
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: time on under five and a half, and then later

749
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 1: on showing value the other way just because of you know,

750
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 1: some news the official lineup was different than I had projected.

751
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 1: So I think when it comes to middling, you want

752
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: to make sure that you're showing value on both sides.

753
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: That's the point. So I don't do it to get

754
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: cute and you know, try to just you know, raise

755
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: my ROI like it's like investing in bonds, like safe

756
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: way of trading. I only do it in situations where

757
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 1: something happened where at one point I was showing value

758
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 1: on one side and another time I was showing value

759
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,399
Speaker 1: on the other side. So I tend to stay away

760
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 1: from it because again I don't want to look like

761
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: I'm trying to manipulate the market in any way. But

762
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 1: there are some situations where I think it makes sense.

763
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 1: You could also do it. If a book's offering Jamiir

764
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 1: Gibbs fifteen and a half Russi attempts and another book

765
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: is offering him at thirteen and a half. I've done

766
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 1: that where I just take the under fifteen and a

767
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 1: half over thirteen and a half because two Russia attempts

768
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 1: is just massive, massive value. So there's times I just

769
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 1: make both bets at the same time, and I'm upfront

770
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: about it. So you can certainly do that as a

771
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 1: way of like arbing, but I think it's something I

772
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: tend to do less often because, like you said, when

773
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: it comes to cashing out and stuff, if you have value,

774
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: you just stick with it. You're going to make more

775
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: money in the long run when you do things like

776
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 1: that as opposed to getting cute and middling, unless there's

777
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,479
Speaker 1: a rare scenario like I laid out where it makes sense.

778
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, generally know for me as well, just because I

779
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 2: think there's there's just better ways to kind of allocate

780
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 2: your bank.

781
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 3: Rode generally, and even in the middle situation. So you know,

782
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 3: let's say, like let's say you know the rush.

783
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: Attempt situation where you talk about, okay, i'm gonna take

784
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 2: over thirteen and a half under fifteen and a half.

785
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 2: You know, so fourteen and fifteen you have two different

786
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 2: outcomes that you would win both bets. But a lot

787
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 2: of times, because there's so many markets available, you could

788
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 2: actually just bet like an exact fourteen carries or fifteen

789
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 2: carries and it probably get some outrageous plus money or

790
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 2: at some decent plus money because it's an exact and

791
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 2: so I feel like you could control your bets a

792
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 2: little more that way and get a little more upside.

793
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: So that's that's a scenario where actually would take the

794
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 2: books like long, you know, longer juice odds because the

795
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 2: thing about the middling is, for example, let's talk about

796
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:58,439
Speaker 2: NFL bets, when a team covers, it usually covers by

797
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 2: on average, and this changes from year to ear. So

798
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 2: don't quote me on this, but about six seven points

799
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 2: like a score. That's where teasers kind of came from.

800
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 2: It was, you know, the next like deviation over. So

801
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 2: it's not like every time a team is covering, you

802
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 2: know they're they're gonna fall in that range.

803
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 3: You know, over the long term, yes, maybe they should.

804
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:21,359
Speaker 2: And but that that also assumes like your projection has

805
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,359
Speaker 2: to be a lot more infallible, right because like now,

806
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 2: it's not just like if you're just if you have

807
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 2: over for a player and you haven't projected like two

808
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 2: carries over and a carryover, it doesn't matter if your

809
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: projection was like way underestimating, I mean you got like

810
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 2: twenty carries over, or if it was overestimating but you

811
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: got lucky. It's just you only needed that projection and

812
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 2: weed you to that one bet, But now you're talking about, oh,

813
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 2: I need it to like my projection is this and

814
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 2: the lines fall within the middle of this. You need

815
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 2: your projection to be a lot more precise and in

816
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 2: that specific instance, right, So that's why I kind of

817
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 2: lose a lot of the value of it, like between

818
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 2: like even that just that thought, I could have just

819
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 2: been adding on something else right now.

820
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 1: Like yeah, the person to put it, I mean, what

821
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 1: do you think, what do you think? Yeah, well, I

822
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 1: think when you're right when it's if a book that's

823
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: the thing is not a lot of books offer that

824
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 1: market for like exact Russia tempt uh. You know when

825
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: it comes to Gibbs and this is in that situation,

826
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 1: I was projecting him for exactly like fourteen point two,

827
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,320
Speaker 1: so I was like literally in the middle of both books.

828
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 1: So I thought, I mean, you.

829
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 3: Can do that, Sean. You are the king of proft, right,

830
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 3: So there's like if they're not following you.

831
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 2: Maybe like a couple other people in the industry, you're

832
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 2: gonna get that.

833
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 3: Well.

834
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: I think that was the game where Montgomery tweaked his knee.

835
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 1: So Gibbs had like twenty plus carries. But I digress,

836
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 1: it's yeah, middling. It depends also on the type of market,

837
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: like the variants involved in it, things like that, where

838
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 1: most times it does doesn't make sense. But when when

839
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 1: it comes to a market where it's a little bit

840
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 1: more precise, precise like receptions or things like that, I

841
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: think it makes more sense. So again, it's one of

842
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 1: those things that's a case by case basis. And for Raybonn,

843
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 1: if I understand correctly ninety nine percent of the time,

844
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: it's a no for you.

845
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I would say the one yes for me,

846
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 2: and I don't know, like you could tell me if

847
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 2: you agree. If a football an NFL line started out

848
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 2: and it was one team favored by like a like

849
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 2: a field goal or more, and then the line flipped

850
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,800
Speaker 2: all the way to the other side to this, so

851
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 2: I guess if I got teaser value a normal line movement,

852
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 2: I would do it. It's essentially what I'm saying, Like, if

853
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 2: I got six or more on an NFL line movement,

854
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 2: I would try to middle it. But that really everything

855
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 2: else is like if I'm betting it over, which is

856
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 2: rare anyway, I'd probably rather laterate and make my profits

857
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 2: that way then try to catch the middle and if

858
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 2: I'm going under, then I mean, there's no fun in

859
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 2: me betting on something positive happen.

860
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 3: You know, I got to revel in the negativity.

861
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: Very true. Yeah, yeah, I think that makes sense. And yeah,

862
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 1: in that case, maybe like pastor Mahomes is ruled out

863
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: right and in the line. Yeah, so you have this value,

864
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: but then you're like, well the market's kind of overreacting

865
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 1: to that. You know, you have to I for me,

866
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 1: it's like I have to make a case for both sides.

867
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: So yes, it's a it's rare, very specific examples, so

868
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,919
Speaker 1: it's not often, but there there are some times where

869
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 1: it happens.

870
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: All right, here's one, and it's kind of one of

871
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,919
Speaker 2: these betting cliches or I guess miss you could say,

872
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 2: but uh, there's I guess there's a thought out there

873
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: that the bigger the game, the tighter the lines, sean

874
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 2: should better themselves, you think, try to emphasize betting on

875
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 2: fewer big games and seek value out. And this is

876
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 2: an interesting topic I have. I'll weigh in on this

877
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 2: as well, but curious to see your thoughts.

878
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is kind of a mixed bag in a

879
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 1: case by case basis where it's it's somewhat true. You know,

880
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 1: bigger games are gonna have more handle, so in theory

881
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: that that should make the market sharper. But you know,

882
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 1: if you think about the super Bowl, it's it's actually

883
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 1: tracting a lot more public action as well, which can

884
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 1: actually inflate certain markets and create value that that you

885
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 1: wouldn't have and just you know, normal regular season game

886
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 1: where it's you know, maybe more sharp's betting on it,

887
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: so you know, in that in that situation, I think, yeah,

888
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 1: it can create certain markets where you know, there's even

889
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:33,439
Speaker 1: more value because of it. But you know, I think

890
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: it does make sense where one market where I've consistently

891
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: found value is like NFL preseason. Nobody takes it seriously,

892
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,439
Speaker 1: there's not much handle, but I'm one of the few

893
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 1: people that's you know, grinding up projection things like that.

894
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: So I think it's easier to find edges in markets

895
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 1: like that where maybe there's there's less handle, less people

896
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: paying attention. So you can make a case that, yeah,

897
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: the smaller the game, the leverage of the game, you know,

898
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: the easier is the beat. But like I said, games

899
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 1: that drive more action are going to have more public actions,

900
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: So I think it's a case by case basis, and

901
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that there's one way to go about it.

902
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: So if if you're you know, handicapping a game, I

903
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: don't think it matters. I think any game you can

904
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 1: find an edge. You know, if you're a sharp better,

905
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 1: you have projections, you know how to read the market.

906
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 1: I think there's going to be an edge whether it's

907
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 1: you know, a high leverage game or a low leverage

908
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 1: game like a preseason game. So I think it depends

909
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 1: in kind of both cases.

910
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I have noticed it come into play

911
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 2: a couple of times, so I'll kind of point those out.

912
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,919
Speaker 2: So for me, ultimately, I think that the bigger the game,

913
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 2: the higher to line applies to certain kind of lines, Right,

914
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 2: Like the super Bowl's point spread is not just going

915
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 2: to be like like if you're on if you're taking

916
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 2: odds for like, what's the worst NFL line of the season.

917
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 2: The super Bowl pointspread is not gonna be among those games.

918
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 2: You know, it's gonna be some randomly six game, and

919
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 2: and so, because there's so much action and things like that,

920
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:14,800
Speaker 2: the biggest markets, which is usually the points spread, there's

921
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 2: not gonna be.

922
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 3: But I will say this.

923
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 2: There's usually a what would you call it, a kind

924
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:25,800
Speaker 2: of following the her like her mentality. You see certain

925
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: lines kind of prop wise or other going certain directions,

926
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,919
Speaker 2: and everyone's kind of decided on a certain narrative like, oh,

927
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: well this this team has to bounce back, or this

928
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: player is gonna have a big game, or he's been

929
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 2: struggling all series or all season, so he's gonna have

930
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 2: a bad game. And you know, there's kind of these

931
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 2: things kind of decided, and a lot of times you

932
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: can you can make a lot of profit by just

933
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: going against those and kind of fading those, like, uh,

934
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 2: you know this this Thunder series is fresh on my mind,

935
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 2: so I'll go back.

936
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 3: It's not Ani Smith example this time, I promise.

937
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 2: But so Case and Wallace, who is a Thunder kind

938
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 2: of start sometimes wing player.

939
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 3: He he was over the series first four games and

940
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 3: three pointers made.

941
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 2: And you know, there's no such thing as due in

942
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 2: in in bedding, but there's just the like he he

943
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 2: wasn't due. He was he was just not supposed to

944
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 2: have zero threes like that was like he's just supposed

945
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 2: to revert to his natural mean of like one three.

946
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 2: So uh, like that like the more he wouldn't like

947
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 2: after you know, after game four, I was like, all right,

948
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 2: I'm definitely betting his threes for game five.

949
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 3: And it's not just it's not like he's due.

950
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 2: Is because the more you missed, the less the defense

951
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 2: is going to pay attention to you, and the easier

952
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 2: your shots are gonna get. So there's like this natural

953
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 2: reversion to the mean kind of coming in. And but

954
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 2: there's good value on his number because it's it's a

955
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 2: high we televised game. He got knocked out of the

956
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 2: starting lineup, and so everyone's assuming like, oh, he's he

957
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 2: might get bet she might even play in this series,

958
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 2: in this game five, So you're getting like that's the

959
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,839
Speaker 2: way a big game. You could still get a lot

960
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 2: of line value by just going against the herd. But

961
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 2: I will say this, statistically speaking, one pm Eastern ten

962
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 2: AM Pacific window, NFL games have shown an edge just

963
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 2: point spread total wise, if you go back on our

964
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: bet Labs database over the past two decades, little more

965
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 2: than that, I think. And I think the reason is

966
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 2: because and I've seen it in props, we don't we

967
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 2: can't track that as closely with its larger data set.

968
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 3: But see it in props as well.

969
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 2: For what is worth is I think because there's that's

970
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 2: the slate where the most games are, so the book

971
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 2: has to juggle just more lines period. So a lot

972
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 2: of times in short, I don't know if you've noticed this,

973
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 2: but I a lot of times find the best props

974
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 2: are in that one PM window because there's usually like

975
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,320
Speaker 2: eight to ten games and I just don't like, like

976
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 2: let's say, Sean Kerner posts like a line a prop

977
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 2: in like the one PM window. There's other there's just

978
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: more other props there because like the book is not

979
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 2: as always like as quick or there's just more options.

980
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 2: I don't know if one or the other makes it so,

981
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 2: but I do notice that there tends to be an

982
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 2: edge in those games.

983
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 3: Is that Is that something you've noticed at all?

984
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, definitely, and I think you're right. It's just

985
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 1: it's a lot to handle. And yeah, that kind of

986
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 1: brings me back to the point you were making with

987
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: with like the Super Bowl, where the point spread that's

988
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 1: going to be one of the most accurate numbers on

989
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 1: Earth because there's so much money on it. We know

990
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 1: so much about both teams at the time. So yeah,

991
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 1: that market the Big Game. It's going to be hard

992
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 1: to find value on that. But the Super Bowl draws

993
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: out new markets like National Anthem, like punter props, where

994
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: you and I every year we have our own projections

995
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 1: on it the book. They don't really have, you know,

996
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 1: a whole year to kind of assess where the market's at.

997
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:52,839
Speaker 1: The market has no clue what it's doing. So it's

998
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 1: easier to find value in those because we're waiting for like,

999
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 1: start it, where is it June seventeenth. I'm already waiting

1000
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 1: for the punch props for the Super Bowl right now.

1001
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 1: So it's it's something that they don't have the time

1002
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 1: or bandwidth to handle. And like you said earlier, Vegas

1003
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: doesn't always know. Sometimes they make markets where they have

1004
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 1: no clue. They're just trying to get action. So the

1005
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 1: Big Game, while the point spread is very sharp, it's

1006
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:20,919
Speaker 1: hard to beat. There are other markets that are kind

1007
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 1: of created because the game is so big, that are

1008
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: offered a ton of value. So that's just an example

1009
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 1: of like the Big Game itself has a mixed bag

1010
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: of beatable and kind of unbeatable markets when it comes

1011
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: to that.

1012
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, so and I guess to dive into even a

1013
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 2: little more so, a lot of other projections and thus

1014
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 2: other markets and lines out there are derived directly from

1015
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 2: the point spread, Like Sean and you and I know this, like, well,

1016
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,280
Speaker 2: a lot of times we'll be doing top down projections,

1017
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 2: which means we kind of project the game, we project

1018
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 2: a score of that game, which is the spread the total,

1019
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 2: and then there's a lot of other things we can

1020
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 2: derive calculate like that are just derivative of those calculations

1021
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 2: that will go into other things. Those markets, all those

1022
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: are all the markets that exist, you know, every week

1023
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 2: as well. And then it's just is that market beatable?

1024
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 2: You know, like is there some type of inherent flaw

1025
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: to that methodology that's not always going to get the

1026
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 2: best projection versus treating that market as an individual market.

1027
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 2: And that's why with player props you could see it

1028
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:32,320
Speaker 2: even more because a lot of times it's you can't

1029
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:35,680
Speaker 2: just take like one, you could derive certain player projections

1030
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,839
Speaker 2: from the score, but like you know, football is more

1031
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,760
Speaker 2: than touchdowns, and you know, you know, if you're taking

1032
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 2: yards from points, that's gonna there's always gonna be some

1033
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 2: gray area. There's say things in basketball with points and whatnot,

1034
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 2: so It's like, for example, in basketball, a market that

1035
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 2: I've found is kind of.

1036
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 3: Not always as sharp is the turnovers market.

1037
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 2: And that's because like, regardless of what you're doing, like

1038
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 2: because now you've got the the the what do you

1039
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 2: got the rebound chances NBA trackstat, you got the potential assists.

1040
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 3: I know that's a big one for you, Seean, So,

1041
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 3: but but these.

1042
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 2: Are getting sharper, right, But turnovers it's still it's still

1043
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 2: like a lot to It's still tough to kind of

1044
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 2: figure with the score itself because you know, individual players

1045
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 2: turnover he could get less minutes and be doing poorly

1046
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 2: and that's why he goes under his turnover amount, you know.

1047
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 2: So it's like it's a little more nuanced to it,

1048
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 2: and those are the ones that you're gonna generally see

1049
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 2: more value on. I know, Sean that you've done a

1050
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 2: lot of work in the tackles market. Yeah, because that's

1051
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:38,439
Speaker 2: a market that it is common, it pops up every week.

1052
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 2: But it's just it's just harder to like take a

1053
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 2: score and you know, it's not just like touchdowns or

1054
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: it's like all right, this because this team is projected

1055
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 2: to score twenty four points, they're gonna have like two

1056
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,400
Speaker 2: point three touchdown, whatever the number is, you know what

1057
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 2: I mean. There's a little more nuanced to like a

1058
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 2: tackle prop or an assist prop or a sack prop

1059
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 2: even And so those markets, Yeah, those are the kind

1060
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 2: of markets that you generally want to talk where by

1061
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 2: having an accurate spread in total, that doesn't necessarily mean

1062
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 2: that everything else is accurate. That those are the kind

1063
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:10,399
Speaker 2: of markets that I find where you're gonna find the edge.

1064
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to be careful. I could talk about

1065
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:15,399
Speaker 1: tackle props for hours, so we won't go down that route.

1066
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 1: But I think you're absolutely right, Like a lot of

1067
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 1: these are kind of derivative driven. So the lesson you

1068
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,839
Speaker 1: get away with that, the markets that are newer, that

1069
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 1: have less advanced data where you think you have a

1070
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 1: perceived edge. Yet, those are the markets that I think

1071
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 1: you're going to find the most value on Before you know.

1072
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,360
Speaker 1: There might be some metric where it's easier to project

1073
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 1: turnovers or something like that, but I always found you

1074
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 1: have to kind of evolve and get ahead of the

1075
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:42,759
Speaker 1: curve when it kinds of things. So it looks like

1076
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,600
Speaker 1: you've been doing that with NBA turnovers.

1077
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:48,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, exactly, And like, yeah, that market could it

1078
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,840
Speaker 2: could smarten up, but there's there's usually like there's always

1079
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 2: going to be things where you just want to kind

1080
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:55,760
Speaker 2: of like again, the spread and the total the books

1081
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,879
Speaker 2: advantage there is not just that they are like they're

1082
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,439
Speaker 2: spending the most time, there's the most money coming in. Yeah,

1083
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 2: so the market is adjusting it. So they're getting like

1084
00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 2: the book is getting an edge just from having this

1085
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 2: big market. And when I say derivative, just to be clear,

1086
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 2: just as an example, because I know that's a it

1087
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:13,359
Speaker 2: is a big word that when I first I think

1088
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 2: I first heard it when I was kind of studying

1089
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:16,800
Speaker 2: finance and stuff, and I had no idea.

1090
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 3: What that went meant.

1091
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 2: So a derivative would just mean so let's say you

1092
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:26,240
Speaker 2: project the Titans over the Texans by seven points. Now

1093
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 2: you're gonna have markets for the Titans to win by eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, six, five, four, three, two, one,

1094
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 2: et cetera.

1095
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 3: Those can all be derived off.

1096
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 2: That seven point spread, assuming that you like you say,

1097
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:40,439
Speaker 2: you plug that seven point spread and it's like, okay,

1098
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:42,840
Speaker 2: this is the median of my distribution or this is

1099
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 2: the average of my distribution, right, and then they're not calculating, Oh, well,

1100
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 2: the Texans, the Titans blow teams out a lot, so

1101
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 2: we're gonna put their all line at you know, fourteen,

1102
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:55,879
Speaker 2: at this price. Like, No, it's literally just calculated off

1103
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 2: that initial spread. That's what I mean by derivative. Those

1104
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:00,959
Speaker 2: markets are going to be a little harder to beat.

1105
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 2: So but it's also just picking your poison because a

1106
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 2: lot of times, instead of taking a favorite to win

1107
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 2: by the spread, you could take the favorite to win

1108
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 2: even bigger at plus money. You're not gonna win as

1109
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: many bets, but you're technically not really losing any value

1110
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,919
Speaker 2: unless the book is again overcharging you, which you would,

1111
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:17,759
Speaker 2: which would be a calculation that you'd have to make.

1112
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, that's generally I think how how it breaks

1113
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 2: down between the different markets.

1114
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:25,839
Speaker 3: All right, try any what.

1115
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 2: Comes to your mind when you think of the biggest

1116
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 2: myths in sports better.

1117
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 1: Well, the first one is, you know, the house always wins.

1118
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 1: It's kind of true, but also not true at all,

1119
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 1: kind of what you were saying with Vegas. No's that

1120
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 1: the house definitely has an edge. They take a rake,

1121
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 1: the big and the odds are in their favor by default.

1122
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 1: But if you're sharp enough to identify real edges and

1123
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 1: manage your bankroll. Just be disciplined when it comes to that.

1124
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 1: You could absolutely win over the long run. You know,

1125
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:02,719
Speaker 1: unlike casino games, like unless you're counting cards or slots,

1126
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 1: those are fixed odds. The house is going to win

1127
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 1: in the long run. You might have some days or weekends.

1128
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:11,839
Speaker 1: We're not big on slots, but in the long run

1129
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:14,880
Speaker 1: you're gonna lose. That's not how sports betting is. Sports betting,

1130
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:17,839
Speaker 1: you're betting against the market itself. You're betting against other

1131
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:21,440
Speaker 1: sports betters who are you know, too passionate. They get

1132
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 1: you know, fixed up in narratives, you know, things like

1133
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 1: that where you could you could beat them over the

1134
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: long run, so that the sports books themselves, you know,

1135
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 1: they're making money off just people, you know, putting action

1136
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 1: on both sides and taking a cut of that. But

1137
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 1: as an individual, it doesn't guarantee that you're going to

1138
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: lose the long run. It's it's hard to do. You

1139
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 1: got to be again, like I said, good at it.

1140
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 1: But the house doesn't always win that. There are people

1141
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 1: that win in the long run, and on the flip side,

1142
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 1: there's also people that get into sports betting that just

1143
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 1: think it's easy because they know ball, they know that

1144
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 1: league or they know that team where you'll just beat

1145
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 1: the books in the market. But the reality is, even

1146
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:07,840
Speaker 1: if you're sharp, you know, you need to have solid

1147
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: bank roll management already said why that is, and you're

1148
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 1: gonna have losing stretches no matter how good you are,

1149
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 1: you're gonna have losing stretches. And being able to kind

1150
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 1: of power through that. Trusting your process and trusting your

1151
00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 1: bank roll management is critical, and not a lot of

1152
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 1: people have that, even if they are kind of so

1153
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:29,839
Speaker 1: and so sharp in that league. So yes, you can

1154
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:31,800
Speaker 1: beat the house, but no, it isn't easy.

1155
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:35,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that's always the one that comes

1156
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 2: to mind first is Vegas knows no if Vegas new

1157
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:42,279
Speaker 2: lines would never move. Oh yeah, Vegas is no, would

1158
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 2: they Why would they drop? Why would they drop a

1159
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 2: different line? You know? And then and then everyone and

1160
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 2: then the other myth is that the lines are only

1161
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 2: reflective of the money and balancing, not necessarily a lot

1162
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 2: of times you find and you can do this by

1163
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 2: just checking the action app and the money percentages in

1164
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:00,399
Speaker 2: the metrocentage. But books will often take stands on one

1165
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:02,640
Speaker 2: side of a line of anything. They're trying to be

1166
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:05,880
Speaker 2: on the side of the winning side, but they're gonna

1167
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 2: remember they have a ten percent at least kind of

1168
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:13,440
Speaker 2: you know, with a room to play with, so they

1169
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:15,920
Speaker 2: can kind of take a side and still you know,

1170
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 2: aim to collect, you know a little more on the

1171
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 2: lose what they think is going to be that losing side,

1172
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 2: and at worst, you know that that ten percent takes

1173
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 2: takes care of that, you know, So they have this

1174
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:28,720
Speaker 2: kind of or margin for error to play with.

1175
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 3: You got to remember that.

1176
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 2: So it's not just like, oh, it's only based on

1177
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 2: balancing money fifty to fifty.

1178
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 3: No, that's not how it is.

1179
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 2: It's it's a mix of what they think the true

1180
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 2: line is, but also what they think, how they think

1181
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 2: betters will bet, and how they think early betters will

1182
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 2: bet versus the public. Because a lot of times, like

1183
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 2: if you look at NFL bets in our app or

1184
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 2: NFL games in our app a lot of times you'll

1185
00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 2: see sharp action like the Sunday afternoon before the like

1186
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 2: the next week, because sharps are getting their bets and

1187
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 2: immediately and the books kind of know that, like they're like,

1188
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 2: all right, we're gonna have to put out this number,

1189
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 2: the sharps are probably gonna hit it, and then we

1190
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 2: could like once we take x amount of this big

1191
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 2: money that we know, like there's only so much more

1192
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 2: money that's gonna come in, and then we'll adjust it again,

1193
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 2: you know, based on number one with those sharps bet

1194
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 2: and number two where we think the rest of the

1195
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 2: market's gonna be at.

1196
00:58:16,160 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 3: So a lot goes into the line. It's not that simple.

1197
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 2: Also, uh, like you don't need to be taken like

1198
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 2: there's nothing wrong with unders There's nothing wrong with underdogs.

1199
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:32,520
Speaker 2: Their parlays are not plus ev you know. Generally speaking,

1200
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,200
Speaker 2: I think the best use of parways is like supplemental.

1201
00:58:35,600 --> 00:58:37,440
Speaker 2: Like if like if you want to get your bankroll

1202
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 2: started and you have like a low about to work with, yeah,

1203
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:42,800
Speaker 2: sure throw throw five hours partways at the wall because

1204
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 2: it's probably it probably still is the quickest way for

1205
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 2: you to build a big bank roll rather than going

1206
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 2: in five hour increments with with straight bets. But you know,

1207
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:53,840
Speaker 2: beyond that, yeah, like it's it's kind of kind of

1208
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 2: like a kind of like a DFS tournament if you're

1209
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 2: playing cash games, it's like it's it's supplemental. You can

1210
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 2: kind of allocate toward it, but it's not it's not

1211
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:01,160
Speaker 2: plus y V.

1212
00:59:01,360 --> 00:59:03,640
Speaker 3: It's a lot hard to get it edged with those.

1213
00:59:03,760 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 2: So those are kind of things that I think about,

1214
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 2: but it's there's definitely, as far as we know, nothing rigged.

1215
00:59:11,600 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean that different officials and umpires and whoever

1216
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 2: don't have different tendencies and things like that. So those

1217
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 2: those those are something to watch, but it doesn't mean

1218
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:24,720
Speaker 2: it's rigged or anything like that, because like every time

1219
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 2: people say bet bets are rigged, I'm like, Yo, this

1220
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 2: makes no sense.

1221
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:31,880
Speaker 3: Because people bet both sides of the thing. You're right, like, you.

1222
00:59:31,840 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 2: Know that they that are betting on s g.

1223
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:38,280
Speaker 1: A to shoot free throws every k if you thought

1224
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 1: it was rigged the site that you think is rigged,

1225
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 1: like if you knew beforehand, people always wait until after

1226
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 1: the thing it's rigged. It's like, no, if if you

1227
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:48,960
Speaker 1: really believe that, then you should know what it would

1228
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:49,560
Speaker 1: be rigged for.

1229
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 2: Stupid who Yeah, Speaking of which, uh So we just

1230
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 2: talked about myths of sports betting. I want to talk

1231
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:02,200
Speaker 2: about common mistakes U sports betters make, Sean, And this

1232
01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 2: is something we've kind of we've kind of talked about

1233
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 2: throughout you.

1234
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 3: Know, throughout the year.

1235
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 2: We kind of hit on some almost every time we

1236
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:11,320
Speaker 2: do talk. But give me some of the most common

1237
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:14,680
Speaker 2: mistakes you think sports better is mate, Well, there are many,

1238
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 2: but I think there's three key mistakes I think I

1239
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:19,959
Speaker 2: see a lot of people making.

1240
01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 1: The first is not chopping for the best line. You know,

1241
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:25,959
Speaker 1: a half point or a few cents on the juice

1242
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 1: might not feel like a big deal at the time,

1243
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 1: but compounded over hundreds and thousands of bets, that's that's massive.

1244
01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:34,480
Speaker 1: So you always want to make sure you're getting the

1245
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:37,960
Speaker 1: best line. Like you said, having multiple books having access

1246
01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 1: to that is critical. The second is no bankroll discipline.

1247
01:00:43,280 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 1: I mean, you could win more bets than you lose

1248
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 1: and still bust if your unit sizing is erratic and

1249
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:53,720
Speaker 1: not consistent. So a proper bankroll plan will protect you

1250
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 1: from the nevital rough patches. And when you're hot, you

1251
01:00:57,480 --> 01:00:59,920
Speaker 1: know your your bank your bet size can go up.

1252
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,160
Speaker 1: That's part of it as well, So I think having

1253
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:05,840
Speaker 1: a bankroll discipline is key. And the third is more

1254
01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:09,360
Speaker 1: of a philosophical one, but no self awareness or evolution.

1255
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:13,800
Speaker 1: I think the best betters constantly evaluate the process, not

1256
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:17,920
Speaker 1: just on you know, the results, but just the underlying

1257
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 1: things of the process itself. You kind of have to

1258
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:24,720
Speaker 1: know what markets you're best in, your best equipped to

1259
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 1: find an edge in, and what you struggle with and

1260
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: kind of adjust accordingly. But it's an evolving All the

1261
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 1: leagues are evolving, the prop markets are evolving, We're getting

1262
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 1: new data when it comes to things. So it's just

1263
01:01:37,920 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 1: always staying on top and really being honest with yourself

1264
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 1: and what you're good and what you struggle with, and

1265
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 1: just constantly approving You're never going to be perfect. I've

1266
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 1: been betting for twenty plus years now and I'm still

1267
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 1: tinkering with my process and trying to get better. So

1268
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 1: it's about, you know, just constantly being self aware and

1269
01:01:56,080 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 1: constantly evolving. I see a lot of people kind of

1270
01:01:58,720 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 1: ignore this part of it.

1271
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, like I would say this, and I still have

1272
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,200
Speaker 2: a fully you know, I'm in the process of diving

1273
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:08,640
Speaker 2: into this, but Sean, I woulds And I think we

1274
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 2: all noticed this last year. Betting the NFL last year

1275
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:14,560
Speaker 2: was not like betting the NFL by the last twenty

1276
01:02:14,600 --> 01:02:16,680
Speaker 2: before that, Like it was just a I don't know

1277
01:02:16,720 --> 01:02:18,720
Speaker 2: if it was because of the kickoff rules, and because

1278
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 2: it's just more teams are getting smarter.

1279
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 3: But it was like favorites recovering in.

1280
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 2: A higher equip and it was just these scores were different,

1281
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 2: and you know, it's it's just it just turned into

1282
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 2: something different. And you know, we talked about it with

1283
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:33,520
Speaker 2: the DFS and fancy and prop betting too, where it's

1284
01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 2: like the league average baselines are changing, like and there's

1285
01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:39,480
Speaker 2: things that are making these things change in each sport.

1286
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 3: You know, hockey.

1287
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 2: Hockey is completely different, and I would say in the

1288
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:46,760
Speaker 2: last five to eight years, and it had been prior

1289
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 2: and there were you know, there was a stoppage and

1290
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 2: then there was it was different then and you know

1291
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 2: pre COVID and in the NFL and then you know,

1292
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:55,440
Speaker 2: there's just so many different things that you got to

1293
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:57,640
Speaker 2: kind of pay attention to. So but I do have

1294
01:02:57,720 --> 01:03:00,320
Speaker 2: some you know, because as the guy that bets a

1295
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:03,600
Speaker 2: lot of unders, I can I can see like the

1296
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:05,880
Speaker 2: mistakes almost more clear.

1297
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:08,080
Speaker 3: Then I can give like a.

1298
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 2: Piece of advice in a positive way for each of

1299
01:03:10,600 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 2: the mistakes. Like I see more of things people shouldn't do,

1300
01:03:13,720 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 2: so I'll just wist them. So if you're not profitable

1301
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 2: as a better you're probably doing one of these things

1302
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 2: or a combination of these things. Number One, you're probably

1303
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 2: not betting on enough unders and underdogs. You're probably not

1304
01:03:29,200 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 2: being contrarian enough. Remember it's a market. There's herd mentality

1305
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:36,920
Speaker 2: that that's the way the books are gonna shade lines

1306
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 2: and the money is gonna move lines. So there's no

1307
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 2: jumping on the tail of sharp action from two days

1308
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 2: ago or even two minutes ago could be pointless. Again,

1309
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 2: you have there has to be uh an actual edge

1310
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:54,160
Speaker 2: with the bed itself, and a lot of times that's

1311
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:56,840
Speaker 2: going to be on the contrarian side, because that just

1312
01:03:56,920 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 2: makes sense. If you want to know how Vegas always wins,

1313
01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:02,120
Speaker 2: that's one of the ways. It's that they're gonna collect

1314
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 2: more money and the line's going to move in the

1315
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:08,280
Speaker 2: direction of the public, and the public's at best fifty

1316
01:04:08,280 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 2: to fifty, and that's not that's not gonna cut it.

1317
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 2: Number Three, play twenty parways. If you're doing partways, that

1318
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 2: means you have to hit every single bet in that partway,

1319
01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 2: or sometimes they'll give you if you only get one wrong,

1320
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:23,760
Speaker 2: but it's still gonna be a discounter rate compared to

1321
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 2: what you would get if you bet those bets individually

1322
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:27,160
Speaker 2: over the long term.

1323
01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 3: That that's mathematics. That's there, there's.

1324
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:31,680
Speaker 2: No debate there, and that goes for parways at Lark

1325
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 2: number four, I think being too sensitive to price, so

1326
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:38,720
Speaker 2: Sean you kind of hit on the other side of

1327
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:42,160
Speaker 2: it of like the line shopping completely agree, very necessary

1328
01:04:42,320 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 2: to maximize your value. At the same time, like I said,

1329
01:04:46,640 --> 01:04:49,320
Speaker 2: when a team covers, they're usually covering by seven points

1330
01:04:49,320 --> 01:04:50,640
Speaker 2: in the NFL or something like that.

1331
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:53,200
Speaker 3: The average winning team in the NBA wins by eleven.

1332
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 2: Right, the spread for a favorite is almost never even

1333
01:04:57,360 --> 01:05:01,960
Speaker 2: minus eleven. So sometimes people are too sensitive to price

1334
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 2: where you know, and that's why I try to get

1335
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:07,200
Speaker 2: better about you know when I remember, like okay, post

1336
01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:08,640
Speaker 2: the limit, that you would bet this too if I

1337
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:09,680
Speaker 2: post them in the action app.

1338
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:12,280
Speaker 3: But generally it's like, you.

1339
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:15,000
Speaker 2: Know, if you see me bet something at minus one twenty,

1340
01:05:15,400 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 2: like I would bet it at minus one thirty, Like

1341
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a bigger edge than like this, like

1342
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:22,280
Speaker 2: this tiny little percent of which I'm working with there,

1343
01:05:22,360 --> 01:05:24,160
Speaker 2: So I say a lot of time, especially if you're

1344
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 2: tailing other people's bets, don't be overly priced sensitive either.

1345
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 3: Ideally, it would be good to.

1346
01:05:29,360 --> 01:05:31,880
Speaker 2: Find a limit, but more often than not, you know,

1347
01:05:31,960 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 2: like if you get a few more sense of juice,

1348
01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 2: it's not going to really tote the bet the other way.

1349
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:39,440
Speaker 2: It shouldn't that then they just shouldn't betting it. The

1350
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:42,240
Speaker 2: edge would be too small and in the you know,

1351
01:05:42,280 --> 01:05:42,960
Speaker 2: in the first place.

1352
01:05:43,280 --> 01:05:44,680
Speaker 3: So that's one.

1353
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:48,280
Speaker 2: And then the last one is sample size. People are

1354
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 2: putting way too much weight into small sample sizes, recent

1355
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:52,320
Speaker 2: sample sizes.

1356
01:05:52,720 --> 01:05:53,439
Speaker 3: And that's one.

1357
01:05:53,600 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 2: So you sean, you know, I think one of the

1358
01:05:57,000 --> 01:06:01,360
Speaker 2: notions has been all this data, all this artificial intelligence,

1359
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,760
Speaker 2: you know, chatbots, ll ms, all these different things, the

1360
01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 2: rise of betting in general, and all these betting sites,

1361
01:06:08,120 --> 01:06:11,520
Speaker 2: the legalization. I should say, there's all this data now, right,

1362
01:06:11,840 --> 01:06:14,120
Speaker 2: and I feel like people are like, oh, you know,

1363
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:16,160
Speaker 2: the market striver, it's haired to be. But no, it

1364
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 2: just means more people are using bad data, right, Like

1365
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:22,040
Speaker 2: I have you noticed that? Or is that is that

1366
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 2: something that I'm just making up?

1367
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:27,000
Speaker 1: No? No, yeah, yeah, you're right. You know I see

1368
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:31,080
Speaker 1: it all the time, like last five game lugs on Twitter,

1369
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:33,640
Speaker 1: which yeah, there could be some value in that, like

1370
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:37,720
Speaker 1: if you identify what's causing that, like for baseball, for example,

1371
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 1: if it's a strikeout prop yeah, he could be throwing

1372
01:06:40,600 --> 01:06:42,840
Speaker 1: his slider more and he's getting people to swing and

1373
01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 1: miss that more. There's a reason for that. Maybe the

1374
01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:49,240
Speaker 1: market hasn't really caught up. But sometimes you know, it's

1375
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:52,320
Speaker 1: just that players do for regression. You're kind of overlooking

1376
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 1: sort of the underlying data and you're just going off

1377
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 1: box score data. So I agree, I think there's a

1378
01:06:57,200 --> 01:06:59,360
Speaker 1: lot more data out there, but it doesn't mean everybody's

1379
01:06:59,400 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 1: analyzing it appropriately. Not a lot of people have you know,

1380
01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:07,920
Speaker 1: extensive math background, so they can kind of overlook small

1381
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:12,480
Speaker 1: sample sizes because of that. So that creates inefficiencies too.

1382
01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:15,080
Speaker 1: So just because there's way more info and data than

1383
01:07:15,120 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 1: ever doesn't mean that everybody's using it appropriately.

1384
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:22,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I see this one a lot because I

1385
01:07:22,400 --> 01:07:24,880
Speaker 2: generally don't pay attention to social media, really try not

1386
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:27,000
Speaker 2: to pay attention to much of anything other than my

1387
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:30,640
Speaker 2: own process, just because the noise just tends to not.

1388
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:32,560
Speaker 3: Really really lead me to advice in itself.

1389
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:32,840
Speaker 1: Right.

1390
01:07:33,920 --> 01:07:35,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, I mean depending on who you are, because

1391
01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:37,600
Speaker 2: I would say, you know, when I was newer to

1392
01:07:37,640 --> 01:07:39,920
Speaker 2: the game, I was paying a lot more attention just

1393
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 2: trying to feel things out. But yeah, I'm out a

1394
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 2: point now where, like my process, it's tough to really

1395
01:07:45,480 --> 01:07:47,479
Speaker 2: pay attention to other things. But I will say, yeah,

1396
01:07:47,520 --> 01:07:50,360
Speaker 2: in general, I would say the public noise because like

1397
01:07:50,360 --> 01:07:52,200
Speaker 2: a lot of times, and this goes into the sample

1398
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:52,560
Speaker 2: size thing.

1399
01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:54,520
Speaker 3: Specifically, I'll see things.

1400
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 2: Like this, This receiver posted at least thirty five yards

1401
01:07:58,680 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 2: in each of his last or four his last five games.

1402
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:03,880
Speaker 2: His his prop is only nineteen and a half for

1403
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:06,160
Speaker 2: this next game, and it's like a guy I've like

1404
01:08:06,200 --> 01:08:09,040
Speaker 2: hammered the unders on and I'm I'm looking on social

1405
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:10,240
Speaker 2: and like, you know, it's.

1406
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:11,560
Speaker 3: Easy to make a case the other way.

1407
01:08:11,680 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, it's always easy to make a case in

1408
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 2: some random, small sample size.

1409
01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 3: So yeah, that kind of noise.

1410
01:08:18,640 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 2: Definitely either tune it out or if you if you're

1411
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:25,080
Speaker 2: at the point where you can start to recognize this,

1412
01:08:25,120 --> 01:08:30,400
Speaker 2: maybe listen to this podcast.

1413
01:08:28,320 --> 01:08:29,080
Speaker 3: That the other side.

1414
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,400
Speaker 2: That's like, there's nothing that makes me more comfortable in

1415
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:35,680
Speaker 2: a bet than like you're like seeing like like the

1416
01:08:35,760 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 2: talking heads giving it out on like a big show.

1417
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:40,200
Speaker 2: And I've been there, I've been in that, but like

1418
01:08:40,400 --> 01:08:41,840
Speaker 2: that's the thing they made fun of me on those

1419
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:43,640
Speaker 2: shows because I would be given out like under two

1420
01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:47,240
Speaker 2: and a half, you know whatever, And and to the

1421
01:08:47,280 --> 01:08:49,360
Speaker 2: point where sometimes they don't they don't even a lot

1422
01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:50,840
Speaker 2: of people don't know this. They don't let you give

1423
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:53,200
Speaker 2: out unders a lot of times on these on those shows,

1424
01:08:53,240 --> 01:08:54,799
Speaker 2: So that that's something also.

1425
01:08:54,600 --> 01:08:55,519
Speaker 3: To keep in mind.

1426
01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 2: It kind of varied depending on the league and the show,

1427
01:08:59,640 --> 01:09:02,720
Speaker 2: but just just so people know from someone that's been

1428
01:09:02,760 --> 01:09:05,479
Speaker 2: there and does that, sometimes they don't even let you

1429
01:09:05,479 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 2: give out unders.

1430
01:09:06,280 --> 01:09:07,720
Speaker 3: So it's like when you see.

1431
01:09:07,520 --> 01:09:09,719
Speaker 1: I can't I can't join, I can't join them because

1432
01:09:09,720 --> 01:09:11,280
Speaker 1: that would Yeah, I mean.

1433
01:09:11,240 --> 01:09:16,559
Speaker 2: Shoot, definitely don't uh don't engage as much as I

1434
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:17,840
Speaker 2: used to, and yeah, I.

1435
01:09:17,800 --> 01:09:18,720
Speaker 3: Mean you know what I mean.

1436
01:09:18,760 --> 01:09:21,040
Speaker 2: It's it's it's one of those things that it's just

1437
01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:23,719
Speaker 2: that's just the reality of it. And it's not anybody,

1438
01:09:23,840 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 2: you know, it's not it's not their fault. It's coming

1439
01:09:26,320 --> 01:09:29,800
Speaker 2: down from somewhere else. But the point is, uh, yeah,

1440
01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:31,920
Speaker 2: there's nothing that a lot of times there's nothing better

1441
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:37,440
Speaker 2: than seeing like public outlets or you know, Twitter accounts

1442
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:39,280
Speaker 2: or ex accounts I should say, or whatever it is

1443
01:09:39,280 --> 01:09:42,360
Speaker 2: on social media, TikTok whatever, giving out a certain play

1444
01:09:42,920 --> 01:09:45,880
Speaker 2: and then it's like it's getting spread around like, oh man,

1445
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:47,599
Speaker 2: do I want to bet the opposite side of that?

1446
01:09:47,840 --> 01:09:50,439
Speaker 3: Like you know what I mean? Like that's these things are.

1447
01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:53,200
Speaker 2: They're generally just small sampleson I used to think because

1448
01:09:53,360 --> 01:09:55,280
Speaker 2: a lot of times the sports books will also show

1449
01:09:55,320 --> 01:09:58,559
Speaker 2: you like last five game logs in there, like in

1450
01:09:58,640 --> 01:10:00,519
Speaker 2: the sportsbook, Like what so you go to a bet,

1451
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:02,840
Speaker 2: they'll show you like last five. I used to think

1452
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:04,920
Speaker 2: they were just trying to throw people off, but like

1453
01:10:05,160 --> 01:10:06,960
Speaker 2: sometimes I think they actually.

1454
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:09,760
Speaker 3: Based their They are basing their lives off the last

1455
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 3: five two.

1456
01:10:10,520 --> 01:10:12,639
Speaker 2: So either way, there's gonna be some kind of edge

1457
01:10:12,680 --> 01:10:15,040
Speaker 2: with the sample size, whether it's against the book, whether

1458
01:10:15,120 --> 01:10:18,599
Speaker 2: it's against just the public or both. But generally you

1459
01:10:18,640 --> 01:10:21,439
Speaker 2: want to have your antenna's up and more often than not,

1460
01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:25,080
Speaker 2: like whatever the people are on one thing, definitely step

1461
01:10:25,120 --> 01:10:27,360
Speaker 2: back and say how could this go wrong? Because a

1462
01:10:27,400 --> 01:10:29,720
Speaker 2: lot of times your most profitable bets are gonna be

1463
01:10:30,200 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 2: the contrarian ones. Like every time I post bets, my

1464
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:35,040
Speaker 2: friends are like hitting yet like why why are you

1465
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:39,240
Speaker 2: posting these obscure bets? I'm like, because like these these

1466
01:10:39,240 --> 01:10:41,040
Speaker 2: are the ones that haven't been hit, Like it's it's

1467
01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:42,880
Speaker 2: or these are the ones where you know the public

1468
01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:45,280
Speaker 2: hasn't you know, like the cat's not out of the bag,

1469
01:10:45,320 --> 01:10:47,760
Speaker 2: because sometimes the public will be right too, but the

1470
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:48,920
Speaker 2: cat will just come out of the bag.

1471
01:10:48,960 --> 01:10:51,000
Speaker 3: Like trying to think of one like I think you had.

1472
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:52,800
Speaker 2: Maybe it was like the Noah Gray one last year

1473
01:10:52,840 --> 01:10:54,920
Speaker 2: for the Super Bowl or something where like everyone was

1474
01:10:54,960 --> 01:10:56,519
Speaker 2: on these under but I don't even think I ended

1475
01:10:56,600 --> 01:10:58,320
Speaker 2: up betting it because by the time you gave it

1476
01:10:58,360 --> 01:11:00,760
Speaker 2: out and everyone got done with it, like it had

1477
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:02,960
Speaker 2: dropped like five yards and I was like, all right,

1478
01:11:03,720 --> 01:11:05,640
Speaker 2: I don't even have it anymore. But like so you

1479
01:11:05,720 --> 01:11:09,599
Speaker 2: have situations like that too, But yes, small sample sized,

1480
01:11:09,960 --> 01:11:13,000
Speaker 2: no bueno unless you can identify it, like, okay, this

1481
01:11:13,080 --> 01:11:16,000
Speaker 2: is four games and four games ago they started playing

1482
01:11:16,000 --> 01:11:17,960
Speaker 2: a whole new opponent like in the NBA or NHL

1483
01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:20,320
Speaker 2: or something, and for a playoff series, maybe that.

1484
01:11:20,880 --> 01:11:23,240
Speaker 3: But that is gonna do it for us.

1485
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:27,800
Speaker 2: Here for Sean Kerr, who you can find on x

1486
01:11:27,840 --> 01:11:31,799
Speaker 2: at the Underscore Oddsmaker and also on the Action Network

1487
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:34,599
Speaker 2: app at the same handle, I am Chris Raybon.

1488
01:11:34,680 --> 01:11:37,360
Speaker 3: You can find me at Chris Raybond on both of those.

1489
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:52,360
Speaker 3: So next time, let's get This money Action.

1490
01:11:46,439 --> 01:11:49,480
Speaker 2: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1491
01:11:49,880 --> 01:11:52,799
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1492
01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:55,599
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1493
01:11:55,680 --> 01:11:56,560
Speaker 3: hundred gambler