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Speaker 1: Why from our nations came this budget thing is going

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Speaker 1: to do nothing spaceports. I still think it's interesting President

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Speaker 1: Trump not playing his cards yet. Headlines Policy and politics

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Speaker 1: colliding Floomberg Sound On, the Insiders, the influencers, the insides.

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Speaker 1: I would rather see a congressional solution. It's part of

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Speaker 1: my DNA. The Senate map in looks a lot different

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Speaker 1: than it looked in. You really have a divide within

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Speaker 1: Team Trump. The president has to do exactly what people

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Speaker 1: sent him here to do, which is to get it done.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Shirley on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: one h D two Public Impeachment Inquiry, Day number two

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Speaker 1: and what today it was, folks, President Trump live tweeting

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Speaker 1: during the actual hearing with Marie Ivanovich. Is that witness tampering.

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Speaker 1: That's the talk of the town tonight, Plus diving into

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Speaker 1: foreign policy and the latest on the twenty campaign trail.

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Speaker 1: All of that plus good day for the Export Import Bank.

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Speaker 1: I'm Kevin's REALI Chief Washington correspondent, Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: My panel of all star insiders Tonight. Adam Hodge, previous

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Speaker 1: Democrat communicator at the Treasury Department in the Obama administration.

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Speaker 1: Now he's at Aerial Investments as Senior Vice President. Brian

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Speaker 1: Darling's back, former senior communications director to Kentucky Senator Rampaul

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Speaker 1: and the founder of Liberty Government Affairs. Okay, here we

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Speaker 1: go Friday. We made it. So I start today. I'm

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Speaker 1: at the White House. We're covering trade. We're gonna get

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Speaker 1: to that before the market open work following the latest

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Speaker 1: back and forth Cutlo's out there talking about US China

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Speaker 1: trade policy. That's all the markets are caring about today.

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Speaker 1: But then I go to Longworth, back to Longworth where

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Speaker 1: Marie Ivanovich is testifying before the House Intelligence Committee. I

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Speaker 1: turned the corner in Longworth right as their ending of recess.

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Speaker 1: I almost walked right into where you can't make it up.

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Speaker 1: So I'm sitting there and we're going through this, and

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the tweets start coming. Did you

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Speaker 1: see these tweets? And President Trump he's tweeting out in

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Speaker 1: real time, virtually criticizing Marie Ivanovitch, criticizing her during the hearing,

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Speaker 1: and later another tweet responding to her assertion that the

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Speaker 1: State Department that that it was in staff that there

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Speaker 1: were vacancies all over the world. Meanwhile, she's carefully laying

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Speaker 1: out this narrative to Democrats on the committee, saying essentially

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Speaker 1: that Rudy Giuliani was running a shadow States Department and

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Speaker 1: that she was hearing from folks inside of the State's department,

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Speaker 1: UH that things were being increasingly politicized. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: your take, Adam, as we sort through the second public

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Speaker 1: day of impeachment inquiry hearings. So I think my biggest

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Speaker 1: takeaway was actually something she said in her opening statement

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Speaker 1: about why this all matters. It's because you have diplomats

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Speaker 1: uh serving abroad, and now the world knows that if

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Speaker 1: they pressure an ambassador, or they pressure or get close

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Speaker 1: to the president's people, they can force out an ambassador

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Speaker 1: for their own personal interests. And that is a real

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Speaker 1: uh degradation of both American foreign policy and the trust

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Speaker 1: that the world has in our ability to carry out

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Speaker 1: and effect the foreign policy and our standing as a

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Speaker 1: global leader. I hear you on that, But what do

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Speaker 1: you say to the Republican sources that I talked to.

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Speaker 1: He said, Hey, wait a minute, he's the commander in chief.

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Speaker 1: He can hire fire whomever he wants. He has the

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Speaker 1: right to hire and fire whoever he wants, but just

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Speaker 1: that doesn't make it the right thing to do, or

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Speaker 1: that make it the right policy approach for for the country.

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Speaker 1: And I think with Democrats, I think so far have

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Speaker 1: painted pretty effectively is why the broader investigation matters and

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Speaker 1: why they need to get to the bottom of the

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Speaker 1: whole thing. I think it was pretty extraordinary that this

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Speaker 1: is a third witness that's testified no firsthand knowledge, never

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Speaker 1: spoke to President Donald J. Trump, never spoke to mcmulvaney.

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Speaker 1: And I think it also we've seen something we will

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Speaker 1: probably never see again. We've never seen the past where

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Speaker 1: the president in real time is responding and he's basically

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Speaker 1: trying to make the case that because I can't have

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Speaker 1: my lawyers there, because I'm not allowed, because my side,

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Speaker 1: the Republicans, aren't allowed to really put their case out there,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to use Twitter and I'm gonna use press

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Speaker 1: conferences to have my say and push the most court.

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Speaker 1: Most court cases, you can't you can't even have like

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Speaker 1: your cell phone on even as a reporter. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I've covered a pretty high profile trial in my day,

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Speaker 1: and they would say no, tweeting or leave your devices.

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Speaker 1: They don't even let photographers in. You know, that's why

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Speaker 1: you get those court trawlings. To have the President of

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Speaker 1: the United States live tweeting. I mean, it is I'm

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Speaker 1: not not opinion here. It is remarkable. It is but

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Speaker 1: one of the things that we treasure in our country

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Speaker 1: as a bill of rights and the idea in the

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Speaker 1: sixth Amendment that you're allowed to confront witnesses against you. Well,

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Speaker 1: he's trying to do it in his own way, confront

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Speaker 1: this witness and say here's why this witness is not credible.

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Speaker 1: And I think he has a right to do that

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Speaker 1: because he has a right to just make his case.

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Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, Adam, because what's the difference

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Speaker 1: between the r n C and or the d n

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Speaker 1: C in real time putting out responses in real time

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Speaker 1: during the hearings. You get the emails you've probably written

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Speaker 1: some both of you and and the president using his

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Speaker 1: Twitter account and putting out a statement. I think part

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Speaker 1: of is that the president is the central figure at

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Speaker 1: who's at risk of being impeached. But the one thing

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Speaker 1: I want to go back to and remind folks is

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Speaker 1: the president has refused to allow people in his administration

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Speaker 1: to testify. He has refused to release the case that

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Speaker 1: the cables at the center of the investigation. Now, if

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Speaker 1: you were really innocenter, you thought that, um, you had

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Speaker 1: a clear case to make, you would want to put

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Speaker 1: as much of your information out there, thinking that that

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Speaker 1: would overwhelm the facts. And now, so far the White

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Speaker 1: House has refused to let mcmulvaney, uh, Mike, Mike Pompeo,

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Speaker 1: or other folks close to the White House testify. Let's

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Speaker 1: listen to the exchange where Shift reads the tweet to

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Speaker 1: Ivanovitch and she responds to President Trump's tweet. Take a listen.

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Speaker 1: Notwithstanding the fact that, as you testified earlier, the President

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Speaker 1: implicitly threatened you in that call record, and now the

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Speaker 1: president real time is attacking you. What effect do you

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Speaker 1: think that has another witnesses willingness to come forward and

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Speaker 1: expose wrongdoing. Well, Uh, it's very intimidating. It's a time

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Speaker 1: designed to intimidate, is it not. I mean, I can't

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Speaker 1: speak to what the President is trying to do, but

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Speaker 1: I think the effect is to be intimidating. Well, I

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Speaker 1: want to let you know the massador of that some

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Speaker 1: of us here take witness intimidation very, very seriously. Do

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Speaker 1: you think, Brian Darling, that's witness intimidation? Well, pretty clearly

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Speaker 1: it could be. It's intimidating when the president is tweeting

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Speaker 1: about you. But is it witness intimidation person in the

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Speaker 1: legal sense. I don't believe so. I believe it's just

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Speaker 1: a president trying to have his say in the use

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Speaker 1: his microphone as megaphone of Twitter to push back and

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Speaker 1: attack the credibility of the witness. Do you think that

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Speaker 1: that could be an article of impeachment? I think it,

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Speaker 1: It can be, and I think it will. What what

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Speaker 1: you what you've heard from Democrats so far is that

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Speaker 1: they're definitely going to consider it. I think you have

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Speaker 1: to remember the context. Though. She was forced to flee

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Speaker 1: the country to flee Ukraine in April after the State

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Speaker 1: Department officials said that her should they fear for her safety.

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Speaker 1: So that's already in the in the ether. That's already

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Speaker 1: something that's in the back of her mind. To have

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Speaker 1: it happened while she's testifying was shocking to say the least.

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Speaker 1: And just the headline again, I mean, there was so

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Speaker 1: much uncovered and virtually in real time, an article of

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Speaker 1: impeachment emerges in long Worth with a tweet and Ivanovitch.

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Speaker 1: But let's just go through this. The day began with

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Speaker 1: President Trump releasing the the original what what what is?

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Speaker 1: Everyone has a different word for transcript, memorandum, not a transcript,

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Speaker 1: not a transcript transcript? All right, so don't go after me. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's a three pager. And the President had invited did

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Speaker 1: President Zelinsky of Ukraine to to come to the White House,

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Speaker 1: but no real bombshell. He mentioned this universe, but no

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Speaker 1: real bombshell, right. The bombshell today was actually that when

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Speaker 1: the White House officially released their readout of the call

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Speaker 1: back in April, they said that they talked about corruption.

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Speaker 1: So somehow in the intervening months, the idea about corruption

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Speaker 1: disappeared from the transcript, or it never happened in the

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Speaker 1: first place. And I think it also is worth noting, uh,

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Speaker 1: just again, this characterization of Rudy Giuliani, the President's personal attorney,

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Speaker 1: really kind of running his own political international geo political operation.

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Speaker 1: The thing that we heard today from the reporter by

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Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal was that Giuliani was actually trying

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Speaker 1: to orchestrate that policy on behalf of these two sort

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Speaker 1: of clowns in Ukraine because he was pursuing natural gas

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Speaker 1: contracts in Ukraine himself. That to me seems that was

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Speaker 1: a bombshell in itself. We're going to disagree about a

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Speaker 1: lot of things, but I bet we can agree on

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Speaker 1: this that Rudy Giuliani is not a great attorney. He's

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Speaker 1: not the guy you should be have have running around

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Speaker 1: Ukraine trying to work out these deals. I mean, we've

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Speaker 1: seen it when he's done his public media appearances where

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Speaker 1: he makes admissions and you know clearly he's not he's

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Speaker 1: not doing a very good job in behalf of the president.

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Speaker 1: Just a final note on this, Roger Stone, remember him.

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Speaker 1: Roger Stone found guilty today in court of lying to

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Speaker 1: Congress essentially during his September testimony before the House Intelligence Committee.

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Speaker 1: If that's not a warning to all these folks who

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Speaker 1: are testifying before the House Intel that don't treat it

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Speaker 1: as a joker, you'll be convicted. Coming up more policy

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Speaker 1: and politics with the panel. Download the Bloomberg Sound On

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Speaker 1: podcast on Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com, or by

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Speaker 1: downloading the Bloomberg Business app. You can also find me

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Speaker 1: on radio dot Com, I Heart Radio and Spotify. I'm

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Speaker 1: Kevin Cereally go Eagles. They're gonna beat the Patriots this weekend.

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Speaker 1: You're listening so Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. Chound on

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Speaker 1: with KEVIN'SI relate on Bloomberg and one all five point

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Speaker 1: seven f m h D two attacks are leading to

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Speaker 1: a crisis in the State Department as the policy process

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Speaker 1: is visibly unraveling, Leadership vacancies go unfilled, and senior and

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Speaker 1: mid leveeral officers ponder an uncertain future. The crisis has

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Speaker 1: moved from the impact on individuals to an impact on

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Speaker 1: the institution itself. The State Department is being hauled out

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Speaker 1: from within at a competitive and complex time on the

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Speaker 1: world stage. This is not a time to undercut our diplomats.

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Speaker 1: That was Marie Ivanovitch testifying earlier today on Capitol Hill

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Speaker 1: before this Senate Intelligence Committee. She's a career Foreign Services

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Speaker 1: UH employee of the government thirty three years. She served

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Speaker 1: in the government before President Trump alsted her last May.

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Speaker 1: She's now at the center of all of this. And

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Speaker 1: whether or not President Trump bribed is the word crats

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Speaker 1: are using bribe. Ukraine President Zelinsky in order to withhold

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Speaker 1: four hundred million dollars worth of military aid in exchange

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Speaker 1: for Zelinsky and the Ukrainians to investigate the bidens. I'm

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Speaker 1: Kevin Cirelli, Chief Washington correspondent from Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: My guest with me tonight, Brian Darling, a Republican strategists

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Speaker 1: previously worked for Kentucky Senator Ram Paul and Adam Hodge,

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Speaker 1: who was at Aerial Investments. Now he's a senior vice

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Speaker 1: president over there, previously having served in the Obama Treasury Department. Meanwhile, gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: as this is going on. Literally after that hearing wraps,

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Speaker 1: the House Intelligence Committee holding another hearing to look at

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Speaker 1: an embassy aid who says they might have witnessed hearing.

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Speaker 1: President Trump asked the European Ambassador Sandlin, who's testifying next week,

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Speaker 1: if how the investigation was going into into the bidens.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if it's hard to follow all of this,

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Speaker 1: it's because it's moving so quickly. But that's the latest.

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Speaker 1: That was a closed door testimony with with that individual. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and the public hearings are set to continue next week.

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Speaker 1: Are enough about the impeachment? Just for we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: pause on that. We'll come back to it. But did

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Speaker 1: you see this US China trade deal. We've been following

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Speaker 1: this so yesterday Cutler Larry Cudlo, the economic advisor Brian

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Speaker 1: He speaks at the Council of Foreign Relations and then

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Speaker 1: final stages of negotiating the US China Phase one trade deal.

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Speaker 1: Comments also being told this morning on Fox Business Network

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Speaker 1: from Commerce Secretary Wilbert Ross, it would appear that when

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Speaker 1: you juxtapose that with the comments coming from UH Beijing,

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Speaker 1: that they weren't like the final days of of incing

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Speaker 1: a deal. Well, that's great news. And we've been worrying

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Speaker 1: about this, whether it's ever gonna happen for months and

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Speaker 1: months of Chinese We're talking tough months ago. Trump was

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Speaker 1: saying he was going to impose tariffs, and he stopped

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Speaker 1: imposing tariffs. And I hope this all works out. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think that uh, the market soaring because of the

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Speaker 1: fact that things are going well with this trade deal,

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Speaker 1: and you know, we never know what's going to happen

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Speaker 1: in the House, but hopefully the House at some point

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Speaker 1: takes up the Mexico Canada trade. It's interesting, Adam. Uh.

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Speaker 1: We talked about this all the time, but traders up

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street, they're not blinking off of the impeachment

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Speaker 1: tweets and the back and forth and the accusations of

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Speaker 1: quid pro quo and bribery. They are moving off of

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Speaker 1: every single word that comes out of President Trump's top

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Speaker 1: economic advisors as it relates to US and China. And

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Speaker 1: just today today alone, stocks rose to an all time high. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And that was the DAL industrial climbing past twenty eight

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Speaker 1: thousand for the first time. The U S stock market,

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Speaker 1: I'm reading from the Bloomberg terminal, the U S stock

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Speaker 1: market just reached another silestone as the DAL Jones industrial

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Speaker 1: average past the twenty eight thousand threshold for the first time,

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Speaker 1: extending its gain for the year to I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think what the markets are hoping is that this deal

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Speaker 1: actually get done. I think they all recognize and it

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Speaker 1: seems like the White House in China are both recognizing

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Speaker 1: that nobody wins a trade war. It's not something that

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Speaker 1: and it's had real time, real impact on the American

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Speaker 1: economy so far this year. If we can get away

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Speaker 1: from a trade war and get into what is a

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Speaker 1: more normal relationship, uh from an economic standpoint, and they're

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Speaker 1: real measurable gains on both sides. Uh. That is ultimately

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Speaker 1: good for the American economy. And hope it, hope it happens.

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Speaker 1: Am I hearing praise? I would say, you know this,

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Speaker 1: this this democrat people together, Yeah, this democrat, which is

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Speaker 1: that we had never gotten down the road of a

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Speaker 1: trade war in the first place. UM, and we saw

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Speaker 1: both real economic and in the last election, real political

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Speaker 1: consequences for the president and some of the states that

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Speaker 1: were hardest hit by all the tariffs. So from moving

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Speaker 1: away from that. Ultimately, that's kind of the million dollar

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Speaker 1: question is if President Trump hadn't engaged in this trade war,

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Speaker 1: would be be getting a trade deal now? And that's

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Speaker 1: you know, somebody who hates tariffs. I don't like the

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Speaker 1: idea of taxing the American consumer uh in that way.

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Speaker 1: But it looks like it's working. It looks like the

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Speaker 1: tough talk and the fact that President Trump has imposed

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Speaker 1: these tariffs maybe brought China to the table and have

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Speaker 1: us in a situation where we're going to get a

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Speaker 1: very good trade deal. I just go ahead. And I

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Speaker 1: was gonna say, the question is do we actually get

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Speaker 1: real measurable uh, move on some of the um you know,

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Speaker 1: China's protectionists work on and on tech and and the

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Speaker 1: force transfers there not in Phase one and so that's

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Speaker 1: where ultimately the devils and the details about this deal

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Speaker 1: was really worth it in New Trade. It's Adams point, Brian.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we were talking about this in a break

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Speaker 1: and just it bears repeating. I mean, earlier today, the

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Speaker 1: Hua who is the top Chinese negotiator for President shi Jingping,

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Speaker 1: they had had a call with Lightheisermnution. They all get

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Speaker 1: on the phone, they're going back and forth and they're

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Speaker 1: talking about this as the stock markets climbing above dal

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Speaker 1: Jones above and you know, but the markets have priced

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Speaker 1: this in if they don't if they do not get

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Speaker 1: a Phase one deal by December fifteenth, when those additional

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Speaker 1: tariffs are going to go into effect. And let's not

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Speaker 1: forget President Trump just the other day said that, look,

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Speaker 1: if they don't get a Phase one deal by December fifteenth,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna slam them with more terrance. He's the volatility

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Speaker 1: in mid December, right, He's pushed all his chips in

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Speaker 1: on this deal and if it breaks down, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a big problem. But ultimately, you know, with

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Speaker 1: all the talk about impeachment, everything that's going on, all

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Speaker 1: the controversies, Trump tweeting all the time, the fact of

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Speaker 1: the matter is economy is in a very good place

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Speaker 1: right now. Stock market soaring, unemployment numbers at record low.

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Speaker 1: Um people are having more confidence in the economy right now,

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Speaker 1: which speaks to the idea. I mean, as everybody knows,

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Speaker 1: if it was anybody but Donald Trump, he would be

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Speaker 1: looking at it historic stomp in the next of all elections.

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Speaker 1: But maybe not happen. Blancoln you'll miss it. Uh. Next week,

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Speaker 1: House Majority Leader Stanny Hoyer says that they're going to

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Speaker 1: pass a short term bill to keep the government open.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know. I mean, they're kicking it. They're

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Speaker 1: not even kicking it down the road. They're kicking it

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Speaker 1: like an inch because until yeah, they're to December. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they're going to fund it through and remember that shutdown

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Speaker 1: and during the last holiday season, so all of this

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Speaker 1: is gonna be Can you imagine impeachment, shut down, tariffs,

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be. I think I think there is an

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Speaker 1: incentive for House Democrats to show that they can get

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Speaker 1: some of this stuff done. And whether that's us mc ang,

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Speaker 1: whether um, you know it's it's the you know, funding

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Speaker 1: the government. I think they want to be able to

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Speaker 1: show that they can do impeachment and hold the president

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Speaker 1: accountable as they see fit, and also do these other

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Speaker 1: things that they think are important. At least we have

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Speaker 1: an Eagles win tonight or Sunday night to look Sunday afternoon,

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Speaker 1: to look forward to Brian against the New England Patriots.

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Speaker 1: You're ready to see them lose their second I'm not ready.

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Speaker 1: I've already made like I've already made like a two

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Speaker 1: bets over hoagies over over this game. So if you

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Speaker 1: want to, if you want to throw so what what? Alright,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about it in the break. Coming up, panel

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Speaker 1: reacts more in Policy twenty and what's on the Panel's radar.

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Speaker 1: Download the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on Apple, iTunes, at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also find us on Radio dot com, I

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Speaker 1: Heart Radio and Spotify and Kevin Cilli and I am

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Speaker 1: so excited for the Eagles Patriots on Sunday. You're listening

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg one. This is Bloomberg's Sound On with Kevin

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Speaker 1: Shirley on Bloomberg and one oh five point seven h

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Speaker 1: D two. I'm Kevin's a really chief Washington correspondent for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. Brian Darling's here. He's a

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Speaker 1: massive Philadelphia Eagles fan. Also the former constructor for Kentucky

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Speaker 1: Senator Ram Paul Adam Hodges also here. He used to

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Speaker 1: work at the Obama White House and the Treasury Department.

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Speaker 1: Now is at Aerial Investments, a senior vice president. Brian,

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Speaker 1: uh So, we're gonna we decided we're gonna bet on

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Speaker 1: a HOGI. Yes, all right, we don't know where the HOGI.

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Speaker 1: There's a couple of options, but a couple of options,

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Speaker 1: a couple of good options. Italian stores great out in

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Speaker 1: Arlington and U and we just heard of what's this

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Speaker 1: new place? I've not new, but I've just heard of

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Speaker 1: this on Capitol Hill. Mangia Lardo's all right, Mangia Lardo.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna try that, alright, Don I've got above and

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Speaker 1: Pops and yeah, you know, so alright, Friday Night Hogies

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Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Radio. Sound you've been following this. I

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Speaker 1: mean Politico is reporting that Senator Kamala Harris, the Democrat

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Speaker 1: from California, that our campaigns and disarray. Adam, what are

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Speaker 1: you hearing from your friends? I mean, I think a

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Speaker 1: number of people are somewhat surprised that her inability to

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Speaker 1: continue to rise after what seemed like a strong performance

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Speaker 1: in the middle of the summer. Now what I will

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Speaker 1: say to all of all my friends is that it

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Speaker 1: is it seems it's still early at this point. In

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Speaker 1: two thousand and four, John Carey was in roughly three

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Speaker 1: to four percent. He went on to win the Iowa

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Speaker 1: caucus and when the nomination. So I think what the

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Speaker 1: smart campaigns are doing, they're still laying the foundation to

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Speaker 1: really emerge as a strong candidate. And end of December

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Speaker 1: into January, we still got, believe it or not, eight

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Speaker 1: one eighty days to go until Iowa caucus. Um. And

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of the campaigns feel like if

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Speaker 1: they can just hold on and run run their playbook,

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Speaker 1: they got a chance. But they've got to can pete

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Speaker 1: against the impeachment? Yeah, No, I mean I agree that

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Speaker 1: it is pretty wide open. I mean, with the other

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Speaker 1: front run of like Joe Biden. You keeps stumbling and

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Speaker 1: doing having very poor performances at debates. It kind of

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Speaker 1: opens up the door and you're having candidates at the

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Speaker 1: last second running into New Hampshire and filing paperwork. I mean,

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Speaker 1: impeachment is throwing this up the situation where Democrats probably think, hey,

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Speaker 1: we have a pretty good chance of winning because we

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Speaker 1: don't know what's going to happen over the next year.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know. I think if you look at

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Speaker 1: the economy and you look at some of the polling data,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't look great for Trump. But then again, Trump

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Speaker 1: voters don't pull they don't pick up the phone, they

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Speaker 1: don't take those polls, and they didn't in the last election.

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Speaker 1: That's why those polls are all so wrong. You know,

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Speaker 1: it has been fascinating at him. Let's talk about Joe Biden,

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Speaker 1: because he's taken all summer, He's gotten a hit, hit, hit,

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Speaker 1: then we got into the fall, hit, hit hit, and

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Speaker 1: he's still number one of the polls. I mean, yes,

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Speaker 1: not it's titan and Iowa as well as in New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: but he's still at number one or number two. I

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Speaker 1: think it speaks nationally. I want to correct myself nationally,

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Speaker 1: but even there was a poll this week that had

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Speaker 1: him up in New Hampshire, which everybody sort of thought

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Speaker 1: was written off for for you know, Elizabeth Warren and

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders. I think it speaks to the second thing

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Speaker 1: is his name. Mighty. People do know who he is.

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Speaker 1: He's a known quantity and that still matters and Democratic primary.

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Speaker 1: The question is how do they capitalize and how does

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Speaker 1: that campaign, taking all the hits that they've taken over

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Speaker 1: the summer, position themselves to re establish him as the

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Speaker 1: odds on front runner for the for the nomination. Underdog

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Speaker 1: might help him, I think, and I think he tends

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Speaker 1: to perform better, stronger, exactly as underdog who when people

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Speaker 1: think that he's he's down again. That's what happened to

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Speaker 1: to John Cary and and there was a playbook there,

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Speaker 1: um so then rise back. I don't think Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: wants to be thought never mind, I thought you were

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Speaker 1: saying John Edwards, John Edwards. One of the problems is

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Speaker 1: that Joe Biden has run for president twice before and

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Speaker 1: the campaigns did not go all that well, and now

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Speaker 1: this one is not going really great. I mean, he

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Speaker 1: is in the first place, What is a great presidential campaign?

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Speaker 1: Whoever that Donald was? Donald Trump's presidential campaign perceived is

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Speaker 1: going great? Yes, Paul. Once he took the lead, he

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Speaker 1: never gave it up. He just destroyed all the other Republicans.

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Speaker 1: And look, I worked for one of them. We thought

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Speaker 1: we had a pretty good chance. But in the general,

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Speaker 1: no one thought his campaign was going well. He didn't

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Speaker 1: think he was gonna win. No, he didn't exactly. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's not opinion. In fact, what was

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Speaker 1: it going to comment on? So but but this whole notion,

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Speaker 1: I mean inside of the Beltway, Adam, that Biden is

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Speaker 1: doing so bad. I I just you look at the polls,

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Speaker 1: and I think so much of the back and forth,

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Speaker 1: the tweets, all of it, the boom boom boom. I

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Speaker 1: don't think people are are aware of it. I think

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Speaker 1: they've got other stuff on their plate that they're dealing.

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00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 1: I think there again, two things the Democratic primary will

428
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 1: not be one on Twitter. Number one. Number two, I

429
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 1: think that there are a lots of I don't back

430
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 1: barely to I. I it's exhausting and I think everyone's

431
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: I think it's beyond reached its saturation point. And I

432
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: think the other other point is that the voters who

433
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 1: are going to decide the Democratic primary largely tend to

434
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 1: be a little bit older, and they tend to be

435
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 1: people who vote all the time, people who have often

436
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 1: already voted for Joe Biden. So when you get into Iowa,

437
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and then beyond in a

438
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 1: Super Tuesday, it is the ability to run a real

439
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 1: national campaign. And that's the question, can um you know

440
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: the other candidates who have some financial constraints mountain affective

441
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 1: national campaign? I said no, but you also maybe it

442
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 1: can't be one in Iowa, New Hampshire, in South Carolina,

443
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: but it could be lost. I mean, you could have

444
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: a situation where Joe Biden walks in Iowa and if

445
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 1: he doesn't have a decent showing, he's gonna walk in

446
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,400
Speaker 1: very weak in the New Hampshire, in a state where

447
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 1: you have Bernie Sanders from Vermont the next state over

448
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: to val Patrick and Elizabeth Warren from the next state over.

449
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 1: It's going to be impossible for him to recover. Wow. Well,

450
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 1: when the point when you put it like that, and

451
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 1: I say, Twitter doesn't matter, when virtually the President of

452
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: the United States could have just picked up an article

453
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: of impeachment by tweeting during an impeachment. Proceeding Fox News

454
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 1: is Brett Bear, who's just been a stellar at this,

455
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: putting on a masterclass of journalism for how to cover this.

456
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: He says that, uh, he tweeted this out. He said

457
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: that it was adding an article of impeachment real time.

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00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: That's how he characterized it in response to the President

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00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: of the United States tweeting this out. And and it

460
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 1: doesn't really even matter if you agree with it or

461
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: disagree with that. The Democrats are in control. And I

462
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 1: would be stunned if that wasn't if that's not on

463
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: the list that they do. Coming up, what's on the

464
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: panel's radar, we dive into the weeds in a preview

465
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 1: of next week. Download the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on

466
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 1: Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the

467
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also find us on Radio

468
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: dot com, I Heart Radio, and Spotify. I'm Kevin SURREALI

469
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: Chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. You're

470
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg and any nine one This is Bloomberg's

471
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 1: Sound On with Kevin Surreley on Bloomberg and one oh

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00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 1: five point seven F m h D two. Happy Friday, folks.

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00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Cirelli, Chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television of

474
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Brian Darling's here, Republican strategist. Previously with Senator

475
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 1: Rand Paul. What Senator Paul think about all this impeachment stuff. Well,

476
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: I think he is with the president and he thinks

477
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 1: that there's a lot of overreach. He's one of the

478
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: ones that's making the case that the whistleblower should be

479
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: not exposed, but the president should have the opportunity to

480
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: push back and have that person questioned publicly because they

481
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: started this whole controversy. Follow up question, what does Senator

482
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 1: Paul think of the tariffs on bourbon Kentucky tariffs? Yeah,

483
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 1: that's what I thought. Yeah, and Kentucky is what the

484
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: EU slapped on bourbon tariffs and that impact Kentucky. Adam

485
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 1: Hodges here, he's a Democrat. He like, it's so weird

486
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: how you have to like to find people by their

487
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: political party. I've worked in the Obama Treasury Department and

488
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: now he's an aerial Investments as an s v P.

489
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: I just learned that you grew up in St. Croix,

490
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: born and raised America's Paradise. Everybody should go wow. So

491
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 1: you were fourteen fourteen and then you said and then

492
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: you came to say Washington, no to Arizona, moves moved

493
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: to uh New Rochelle, New York or even though my

494
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: my mom's family from Queens and um, you realize winters

495
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 1: a real thing when you move from St. Croix to

496
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: the to New York. Yeah, but but forty Niners, that's

497
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: what you're a forty fan. That's what I don't understand

498
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: is Cleveland Indians and Carolina basketball because you know, it's

499
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: all we ever got were some of the national games

500
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: on TV. You were deprived with no Philadelphia sports teams.

501
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 1: You know that's all right. I've turned up pretty well

502
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: without it. Oh yeah, well that was rude. I'm just kidding.

503
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 1: What's on your radar? We'll start with Brian Darley. Brian,

504
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 1: what's on your raightar? Well, we have a continuing resolution

505
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: that kiss all the decisions did December twenty in my

506
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 1: middle was talking about this and I neither of I

507
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 1: and I feel like I owe an apology because it

508
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 1: is a huge deal, especially inside of the Beltway for

509
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 1: the ecosystem of businesses. If there's a government shutdown and

510
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,479
Speaker 1: how that negatively impacts falls, I mean, that could happen.

511
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: And also, I mean, think about when this trial kicks

512
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: off in the Senate, and you know, the Senate during

513
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,919
Speaker 1: the Clinton administration, the Republicans and Democrats, whenever they have

514
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: these big decisions, they go to the old Senate Chamber

515
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: and try and work out in agreement. I think you're

516
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: going to see that with this where they'll do that.

517
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 1: They'll go to the old Senate Chamber, sit down to

518
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats, try and hammer out some sort of

519
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: a set of rules to conduct this trial in the

520
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: Senate um. But then you know that that is still

521
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 1: going to be in conflict with that December twenty and

522
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: we may see a government shutdown in the middle of

523
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 1: impeachment tal and the middle of impeachment, in the middle

524
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: of US China trade relations, and and and we always say,

525
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: I mean, the markets aren't moving on impeachment, but they

526
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: do move on on shutdown news and whatnot. No, that's

527
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 1: absolutely right. And I think, um, you know I think

528
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: that the hope for for both markets and and is

529
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: that this finds a way to to kind of resolve

530
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 1: itself peacefully and let the impeachment stuff carry on in

531
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: its own sort of echo chamber while the business gets done.

532
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: That's certainly what you've heard House Democrats and Nancy Pelosi

533
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: just this week saying the House Democrats are going to

534
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: focus on trying to get some of those things that

535
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: matter done. What's on your radar, Adam, big thing on

536
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: my radar is actually going down in North Carolina. H

537
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 1: the there's been an attempt um to uh redraw and

538
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 1: court ordered redraw of the maps for house races down there.

539
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: Currently it's split ten Republicans three Democrats. It's been found

540
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: to be partisan, uh be it's been jerrymandered in a

541
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: overly partisan way. And so what you're the state has

542
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: to redraw those maps, and it could mean Democrats get

543
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: two more seats, are up to four more seats in

544
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 1: a state that is, if you look at the math,

545
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: actually a fifty fifty state across across the state. So

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00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: keep an eye on that, and it's it's certainly you know,

547
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: gonna um present new opportunities for Democrats to expand their

548
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: majority in the House. It is, it is really important.

549
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,479
Speaker 1: And when you hear that, Brian, I am from the

550
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 1: state that created the gerrymander, Massachusetts, and if you look

551
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: at Massachusetts, Massachusetts as a Republican governor and had a

552
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: Republican Senator a few years ago, but we haven't had

553
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 1: a Republican House member in a long time, I think

554
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: since the late nineties. So and they they have had

555
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 1: Republican Sylvia CONTI back in the day. It was from

556
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: the western part of the state for a long time.

557
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: But we don't have any Republicans representing us UH in

558
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: the in the House and probably never will. I think

559
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 1: right now, Susan Collins is still the only Republican the

560
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: entire northeast, which suss in College. That's right. Well, I

561
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: guess you don't consider Pennsylvan. I mean Pennsylvania technically, not

562
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: the Northeast. I mean, that's that's that's that's for you

563
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: to say. I don't think it is. Well, I don't

564
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: think it is, But that is interesting. I mean when

565
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 1: you when you look at that, especially how Elizabeth Warren

566
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 1: was able to able to tap into that. I mean,

567
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: you had Scott Brown briefly there for a minute, Brian.

568
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: I mean, you ever couple you had, you know, republican

569
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: governor Maine, you have a Republican you had one. You

570
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: have a Republican governor in Massachusetts. So it is weird

571
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 1: the way these states in Massachusetts have actually had a

572
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: lot of Republican governors. Mitt Romney, um Paul Slucci. It's

573
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 1: it's it's a weird area. It's not as liberal as

574
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 1: you would think. It's more partisan liberal, more democrat than

575
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: it is liberal. That's it's it's an interesting correlation to

576
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: where Democrats have been able to hold governor's races in

577
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: Louisiana and now in in Kentucky. You see the other

578
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: party who shows that they can actually try to govern,

579
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: and those state based elections aren't as driven by the

580
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: national debate. It's more focused on getting things done locally,

581
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: and I think that's why you've seen some of these

582
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: states you wouldn't think would have the member of the

583
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: party leading the state actually being the person who's in charge.

584
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: So you know what's on my radar, Colin Kaepernick, did

585
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: you guys see this? Did you see this? The CBS

586
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 1: News out of Boston is reporting that the NFL is

587
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 1: hosting a workout for Colin Kaepernick this weekend, and while

588
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 1: most agree it's just a publicity stunt by the league,

589
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: it will give the former quarterback his best shot to

590
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 1: make it back into pro football. Fan will still never

591
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: get over having first in first and goal against the Ravens.

592
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: Tom Kaepernick didn't fail to get it done so but

593
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: it According to uh ESPN senior reporter Adam Schefter, he's

594
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 1: tweeted out that more than twenty four NFL teams are

595
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 1: now expected at the workout tomorrow at the Falcons training

596
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: complex just outside of Atlanta. And Tom Brady, Tom Brady,

597
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: your your quarterback. Tom Brady has actually uh said that

598
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: it was quote unquote pretty cool. Kaepernick is getting the

599
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: opportunity to prove himself to NFL team. So, I mean

600
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: Brady hand Antonio Brown's roommate for a little while. So

601
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: but again I mean and not this isn't a sports show,

602
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: it's not a reality television gossip show. But I mean

603
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: Colin Kawberner clearly is especially cultural force in this year.

604
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: You've got all the quarterbacks going down injured, so every

605
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: every team probably needs to look at a quarterback that's

606
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: just been the most amazing thing. You look at how

607
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: bad the quarterback play is in the NFL. You figure

608
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: out Colin Kapernick can't get a job as a backup somewhere.

609
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 1: But what he represents, I mean, what he has come

610
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: to represent, what he has come to say, and how

611
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: that uh, you know, politics is touched sports now. I mean,

612
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: look at the NBA with US and China. Look at

613
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: what happened with the Washington World Series champions Washington Nationals

614
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 1: in terms of that divide. Uh, And you know it's

615
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: going to be really interesting to see. You really don't

616
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 1: want to mix politics and sports, and it's too bad.

617
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,239
Speaker 1: You're way over that, way over that point. All right,

618
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: go Eagles, Thank you, Brian Darling, thank you. Adam Hodge,

619
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 1: going to Marial Investment, Real Investments. That does it for me.

620
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: Have a great weekend, everybody. I'm Kevin Surreally you're listening

621
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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg ninety nine one