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Speaker 1: This is Kamala Shelling and you're listening to Switched on,

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Speaker 1: the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg and EF. Today

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Speaker 1: we're bringing you something different, a bite sized podcast about

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Speaker 1: a recent event that we think illustrates a broader trend

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Speaker 1: in the energy transition this year. It's based on an

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Speaker 1: analyst reaction, a type of note that BNF publishes on

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Speaker 1: our website and on the terminal in the hours after

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Speaker 1: an event takes place. So what are we talking about

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Speaker 1: on this episode The UK's latest budget, which had a

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Speaker 1: lot to say about electric vehicles. Today, I'm joined in

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Speaker 1: the studio by BNF's Madeline Braley and Shanantan Kalachlvan to

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Speaker 1: talk about what the budget says, how it could change

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Speaker 1: the economics of EV ownership, and what all this means

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Speaker 1: for the UK's broader transition to electric mobility. Shanantan is

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Speaker 1: from BNF's EV team. Madeline focuses on EV charging and

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Speaker 1: together we discussed their analyst reaction, UK makes evs cheaper

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Speaker 1: to buy but more expensive to run. BNF clients can

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Speaker 1: find this and other analyst reactions by heading to BNF

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Speaker 1: go on the Bloomberg Terminal or at BNF. If you'd

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Speaker 1: like to learn more about how BNF approaches strategy research

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Speaker 1: on the energy transition, including developments in commodity markets, trends

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Speaker 1: across different sectors, and the cross cutting technologies shaping the future.

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Speaker 1: You can find more information on BNF dot com and

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Speaker 1: if you'd like to speak with a member of our

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Speaker 1: team about becoming a client, email US at Sales dot

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Speaker 1: bn EF at Bloomberg dot net. So let's dive in

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Speaker 1: and see what this all means for the future of

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Speaker 1: UK evs. Maddie, welcome to switched On, Thanks for having me,

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Speaker 1: and Shan, it's so nice to have you here.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.

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Speaker 1: So we're here today to talk about an announcement in

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Speaker 1: the recent UK budget update that really impacts electric vehicles.

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Speaker 1: So Shan as our representative from the EV team. What

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Speaker 1: happened as.

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Speaker 2: Part of this autumn budget in November. There were two

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Speaker 2: main aspects with regards to electric vehicles, the first being

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Speaker 2: the trippling of the UK subsidy for the purchase grants

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Speaker 2: of the electric vehicles, and the second is the pay

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Speaker 2: per Mile scheme, which is a new scheme that electric

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Speaker 2: vehicle drivers would have to pay on annual basis to

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Speaker 2: basically recoup some of that fuel tax revenue that the

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Speaker 2: government anticipates to lose in the coming years.

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Speaker 1: So an upfront subsidy makes sense to me. But how

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Speaker 1: does a pay per mile scheme work?

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Speaker 2: So the desels haven't been reported just yet, but as

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Speaker 2: of now, so far we know that drivers would be

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Speaker 2: reporting their annual mileage in a system and be charged

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Speaker 2: their paper mask scheme on back of that.

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Speaker 1: So they actually have to report their mileage to the government.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean the structure already exists through the mot

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Speaker 2: facilities where after three years each driver would have to

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Speaker 2: go and test their vehicles to say whether their roads

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Speaker 2: safety anyway. And as part of this an additional aspect

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Speaker 2: would be going forward, EV drivers would have to report

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Speaker 2: their mileage as well.

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Speaker 1: So why did the UK feel the need to impose

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Speaker 1: this new fee on electric vehicles?

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Speaker 2: I think the UK has looked at the way EV

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Speaker 2: adoption has been going over the past few years and

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Speaker 2: how they've forecast the adoption to go over the next

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Speaker 2: five to ten years, and as part of their ZEB mandate,

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Speaker 2: the zeromission Electric Vehicle mandate, they anticipate eighty percent of

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Speaker 2: vehicles to be battery electric vehicles in twenty thirty new

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Speaker 2: vehicle salesize. So what are we at now right now?

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Speaker 2: Last year we were at twenty percent battery electric vehicles.

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Speaker 2: So far this year we've reached twenty three percent. That

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Speaker 2: is high adoption, and eventually that will obviously turn over

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Speaker 2: into the fleet of vehicles. And so the fuel duty

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Speaker 2: revenue that they would have achieved through internal commotion injury

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Speaker 2: vehicles is just not going to be there in the

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Speaker 2: coming years, and so this is an inevitable part of

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Speaker 2: EV adoption as they tried to recoup that. And the

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Speaker 2: reason the UKs look to do this so soon is

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Speaker 2: because such a large portion of the price at the

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Speaker 2: pump is that fuel duty revenue, and so this is

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Speaker 2: them looking to essentially recoup that back.

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Speaker 1: But you mentioned that the new budget also has a

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Speaker 1: large part of money, I believe one point nine billion

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Speaker 1: pounds for upfront purchase subsidies for evs. So how quickly

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Speaker 1: will this new fee off set that additional money they're spending.

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Speaker 2: So that one point nine billion is essentially in a

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Speaker 2: subsidy for purchase grants over until twenty thirty and within

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Speaker 2: the first year you would see one point five billion

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Speaker 2: roughly of revenue from this paper masking according to our calculations,

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Speaker 2: and so as this carries on very quickly, you will

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Speaker 2: see that initial pop be recouped back in terms of

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Speaker 2: tax revenue.

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Speaker 1: And Madeline, as our representative from our EV charging team,

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Speaker 1: what does this mean for the cost of charging an

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Speaker 1: EV in the UK?

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Speaker 3: So I think it's worth noting that this paper mile

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Speaker 3: scheme is structured slightly differently to how we think about

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Speaker 3: conventional fuel tax that's applied to petrol, that's applied within

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Speaker 3: the price that you pay at the pump, and so

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Speaker 3: this is slightly different in that it's a separate tax

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Speaker 3: that's going to be applied based on how far you've

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Speaker 3: driven in the year. What it means for the cost

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Speaker 3: of B B charging really depends on where you charge.

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Speaker 3: The UK already sees a really widespread in charging prices,

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Speaker 3: ranging from very cheap off peaks, smart charging tariffs that

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Speaker 3: people can benefit from if they have access to a

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Speaker 3: home charger. They already make driving an EV considerably cheaper

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Speaker 3: than a petrol car, and but that ranges right through

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Speaker 3: to them public charging, which is particularly expensive in the UK.

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Speaker 3: We actually did some analysis in June looking at the

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Speaker 3: cost to public charging across Europe, the US and China.

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Speaker 3: And when we think about fast chargers, which are those

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Speaker 3: highway chargers that delive you that twenty to thirty minute charge,

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Speaker 3: the UK comes out on top when it comes to price.

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Speaker 3: So price sensitivity really differs amongst EV drivers depending on

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Speaker 3: whether they do or do not have access to a

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Speaker 3: home charger.

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Speaker 1: So what kind of prices are we talking about on

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Speaker 1: a perkilabateter basis.

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Speaker 3: When we're thinking about these smart off peak tariffs, they

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Speaker 3: equate to just about two pence per mile for someone

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Speaker 3: with a home charger. If we're thinking about someone just

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Speaker 3: charging on a regular home electricity tariff so they haven't

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Speaker 3: gone out of their way to take out a special

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Speaker 3: EV price, that's about nine pence per mile. If we

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Speaker 3: compare that to petrol, petrol's about twelve point five pence

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Speaker 3: per mile at the moment, and then public charging is

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Speaker 3: much more costly, so that fast public charging is about

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Speaker 3: twenty three pence per mile in the UK at the moment.

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Speaker 1: That is a massive difference. Why is it so much

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Speaker 1: more expensive for the public charging.

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Speaker 3: There's a number of factors at play, and this is

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Speaker 3: particularly important for those fast public charging networks. So these

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Speaker 3: are the networks that drivers really want to see and

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Speaker 3: have confidence in before they make the switch to electric

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Speaker 3: to make sure they can charge on the go when

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Speaker 3: they're doing those one off long journeys. So thinking about

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Speaker 3: highway chargers, there's been a change in how grid fees

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Speaker 3: are structured in the UK, and so public charging networks

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Speaker 3: are actually facing extremely high grid fees, much higher than

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Speaker 3: what they were paying two years ago. But because we

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Speaker 3: haven't seen enough utilization growth in the UK, because the

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Speaker 3: UK fleet is still relatively small, and actually the majority

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Speaker 3: of those drivers are doing the majority of their charging

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Speaker 3: at home, operators are having to push those increases in

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Speaker 3: grid fees onto drivers. So that's one of the major

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Speaker 3: factors that's resulted in the increase in public charging costs

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Speaker 3: in the UK. There's also a disparity when we think

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Speaker 3: about the VAT applied to home electricity versus public charging.

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Speaker 3: VAT is applied twenty percent on public charges compared to

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Speaker 3: just five percent for those charging at home.

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Speaker 1: So I think when most of us think of evs,

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Speaker 1: we're thinking about individuals that own electric vehicles, but there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of people that have been pushed toward

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Speaker 1: buying evs. There are taxi operators, there are corporate fleets.

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Speaker 1: How is this going to affect those particular populations.

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Speaker 2: I think that's an interesting question because because of the

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Speaker 2: way this is applied, it's slightly different to how the

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Speaker 2: fuel duty is applied with regards to normal ice vehicles

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Speaker 2: internal combustion engine vehicles. You would pay the duty at

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Speaker 2: the pump, as Madia is mentioned. However, now it's reported

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Speaker 2: on an annual basis and it then gets levied onto

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Speaker 2: maybe the keeper, maybe the owner. The details are somewhat

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Speaker 2: unclear and the reason why I bring this up right

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Speaker 2: now is for the UK is eighty percent of evs

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Speaker 2: are owned by companies, are registered in a company name,

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Speaker 2: and so in that market, who does the tax get

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Speaker 2: levied onto is a relatively interesting question because the keeper

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Speaker 2: might not necessarily be the final driver, and so that

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Speaker 2: is an aspect they have to consider. Another impact is

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Speaker 2: for high mileage drivers. So I'm thinking about shared mobility

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Speaker 2: drivers such as taxi drivers, and they drive on average

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Speaker 2: three to four times the mileage annual mileage of a

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Speaker 2: usual personal driver, and they obviously will be levied on

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Speaker 2: a higher tax rate as well.

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Speaker 3: It's probably worth noting that drivers relyant on that public

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Speaker 3: charning network are going to fill this much more than

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Speaker 3: drivers that are charging at home. So we don't know

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Speaker 3: what home or public charging costs will look like in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty eight when this is supposed to come into force.

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Speaker 3: But if it came into force today, even if you

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Speaker 3: add that additional three pence per mile to your average

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Speaker 3: home charging cost, you're still netting a saving over a

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Speaker 3: petrol If you're into that realm of public charging where

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Speaker 3: you're already maybe paying an eighty percent premium, adding that

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Speaker 3: additional three pence per mile pushes you further into that

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Speaker 3: negative zone where you're paying a real premium for going electroc. So, Madeline,

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Speaker 3: I live here in London in a flat in the

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Speaker 3: middle of the city. I don't have a garage that

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Speaker 3: I could put an EV in, so if I were

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Speaker 3: to buy an EV, I would have to use public charging.

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Speaker 3: How is this new rule going to affect drivers like me?

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Speaker 3: The government acknowledged this kind of challenge around the cost

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Speaker 3: of public charging. They've said they're going to open a

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Speaker 3: consultation into maybe what can be done to tackle the

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Speaker 3: cost of public charging, And there's certainly various factors that

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Speaker 3: operators have been levying for. Another thing that they're tackling

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Speaker 3: is trying to increase the number of people that can

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Speaker 3: access these home tariffs. So maybe you don't have off

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Speaker 3: street parking yourself, but you have the ability to park

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Speaker 3: outside your home. The allocated funding for things like digging

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Speaker 3: trenches in pavements that allow you to run a cable

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Speaker 3: from your home to your vehicle, So they're really trying

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Speaker 3: to widen the pool of vehicles drivers in the UK

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Speaker 3: that can charge at home. Of course, that's not going

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Speaker 3: to be possible for everyone. If you're living in somewhere

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Speaker 3: like a flat, you're still going to be reliant on

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Speaker 3: the public charging network. They've also announced additional funding for

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Speaker 3: workplace in slow public charging, So the government is trying

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Speaker 3: to tackle this on a number of fronts with the budget.

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Speaker 1: So even though on the one hand they are imposing

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Speaker 1: a new tax on EV drivers, that looks like they

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Speaker 1: really are trying to keep the wind in EV adoption sales.

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Speaker 1: And that brings me to my final question, which is

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Speaker 1: over the course of the last year, we've seen a

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Speaker 1: lot of rollbacks for EV incentives. The US has rolled

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Speaker 1: back its EV tax credits this year. Literally on my

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Speaker 1: way to work this morning, it was announced that the

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Speaker 1: EU is going to be rewriting at zero emission vehicle mandate.

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Speaker 1: So where does this new rule from the UK fit

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Speaker 1: into that broader trend.

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Speaker 2: I would say that it might seem negative in terms

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Speaker 2: of the PAPERMAK scheme adding costs to the EV driver,

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Speaker 2: but it's obviously founded by the subsidies that is going

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Speaker 2: to boost the EV adoption in the UK in the

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Speaker 2: coming years, but more so the fact that we're slowly

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Speaker 2: transitioning from boosting initial EV adoption to living with electric

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Speaker 2: vehicles as a part of society. And I think this

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Speaker 2: tax is going to be on the spotlight from a

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Speaker 2: lot of countries as they look to build EV's more

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Speaker 2: as a sustainable part of the society. And so I

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Speaker 2: do think this is a good part of EV adoption

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Speaker 2: in the next steps as we transition to long term

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Speaker 2: EV use as a personal word of transport.

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Speaker 1: So other markets that are worried about lots of fuel

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Speaker 1: revenues or lots of tax revenues from fuel could be

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Speaker 1: looking into the UK as an example.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a vote of confidence really in the

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Speaker 3: UK's EV transition it's an acknowledgment from the government that

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Speaker 3: the fuel duty lass is real and they need to

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Speaker 3: find a way to epsidize it. I think the UK

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Speaker 3: being a first mover on this maybe is a challenge

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Speaker 3: for public perception and we still don't have all the

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Speaker 3: details of how this is going to be applied, which

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Speaker 3: will be really important for its success.

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Speaker 1: Well, Madeline and Shan, thank you so much for coming

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Speaker 1: on to talk to us today.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for having me, Thanks.

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Speaker 3: For having me.

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Speaker 1: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray

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Speaker 1: with production assistance from Kamala Shelling. Bloomberg NIF is a

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Speaker 1: investment or other strategy. Bloomberg ANIF should not be considered

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