1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ ZACHERI, 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: JJ Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in 3 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,599 Speaker 1: this episode ten ninety four of the Late Round Fantasy 4 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: Football Podcast. 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. 6 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: So, as you guys know, I published the Late Round 7 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: Prospect Guide last month, and if you read that guide, 8 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: then you know that I changed up the ZAP score scaling. 9 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 1: I even talked about that on a recent mailbag episode. 10 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: The new scale works a whole lot better to give 11 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: you an idea of where gaps occur from prospect to prospect. However, 12 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: I'm getting a lot of feedback from people about interpreting 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: the scores from before and then now, as in, if 14 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: a player has a score of eighty right now, what 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: would that score have been in the older guides in 16 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: the ZAP one point zero scoring? Because I get it, 17 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: you want some comparison. It's interesting content, so I figured 18 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: i'd put it out there at the top of this episode. 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: In the post draft version of the guide, there's going 20 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: to be a chart, a conversion chart. It's at the 21 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: end of the guide, and it shows you the approximate 22 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:11,479 Speaker 1: scores for each player in the ZAP two point zero 23 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 1: scoring system versus the old Zapp scoring system, which was 24 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: based more on percentiles. So that's my way of letting 25 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: you guys know that it's coming, while also telling you 26 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: to check out that prospect guide over on Lateround dot com. 27 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 1: Do that now, all right, let's get to these questions. 28 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 1: The first question this week is from Cody. It says 29 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: you've spoken many times in the past about how we 30 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 1: should be shooting for upside in fantasy football. How does 31 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 1: that change with format redraft, Dynasty, best ball and lineup 32 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: size start seven versus start twelve or does it change 33 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: at all? Is there an instance where floor begins to 34 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: matter more? Is that something dynasty managers should consider in 35 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: rookie drafts or should those picks still be shooting mostly 36 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: for upside? So this is something I try to talk 37 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: about in the Late Round Draft guide each year because 38 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: it's fundamentally one of the most important things to know 39 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: in fantasy football. Your individual league, the size of your league, 40 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: the number of starters that you have in your lineup 41 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: at each position. It matters more than arguably anything else. 42 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,679 Speaker 1: It matters more than the different scoring changes that you 43 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: might see from league to league. I care far more 44 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: about the number of wide receivers and running backs that 45 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: I'm starting compared to whether it's full or half PPR, 46 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: because the number of players in your starting lineup completely 47 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: shifts the supply and demand equation. Before I get into that, though, 48 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: I do want to take a second to talk about 49 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: floor and ceiling. There are a lot of ways to 50 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 1: interpret that. Someone's floor and ceiling or their range of 51 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: outcomes can come in the form of how they score points. 52 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: Right Like, someone might look at Wandel Robinson and say 53 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: that he's a floor player and not a ceiling player. 54 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 2: This is just an example. 55 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: Someone might look at Xavier Worthy and say that he's 56 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: a ceiling player that you're just looking for the big. 57 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 2: Play with that archetype. 58 00:02:58,040 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: Now, you can look at things that way, but I 59 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,519 Speaker 1: wouldn't go too far with that because it forces you 60 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: to put these players in these buckets when only a 61 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: handful of players should actually be placed in those buckets. 62 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: Wandel Robinson can have big games. Xavier Worthy, even if 63 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: you consider him a big play threat, can hypothetically give 64 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: you consistency, even if it's bad. 65 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 2: Consistency. 66 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: Where I think about floor and ceiling is with the 67 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: talent level of the player as a whole, and what 68 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: we know about that player, the information that we have 69 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: on that player. Someone who's been in the league for 70 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: seven years, we generally know what kind of player that is. 71 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: Terry McLaurin. We understand what McLaurin does on an NFL field. 72 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: Compare that to a rookie, and there's an obvious difference. 73 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: What that means is that from a projection standpoint, from 74 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: a forecasting standpoint, we can probably confidently project like the 75 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: tenth percentile outcome to the ninetieth percentile outcome for a 76 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: player like Terry McLaurin. Every once in a while, situation's great, 77 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: the player beats regression, they fall out of that range. 78 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: But Carnell Tit in the NFL, on some NFL team, 79 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: we have less of an idea right now, we might 80 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: be better at projecting just like the fortieth to sixtieth 81 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 1: percentile outcomes for someone like Carnell Tait. Ambiguity is often 82 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: what's driving our floor and ceiling conversations. Archetype does too, 83 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: and play style all that stuff. But to me, so 84 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 1: much of the discussion starts with how much information we 85 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: have on this player. When we have little information on 86 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: a player, I found that it's often advantageous to draft 87 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: that player in fantasy football because the market reflects the 88 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 1: lack of that information. It's why historically, even though it 89 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: hasn't been the case quite as much recently, but historically 90 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 1: rookies have been good bets in fantasy football, not bad ones. 91 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 1: That's because the market is afraid they don't want to 92 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 1: draft the unknown. Another good example of this is with 93 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: middle round running backs. Guys who go in that like 94 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: round six to round nine range. Middle round running backs 95 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:05,359 Speaker 1: who have good previous season production, they actually perform worse 96 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: than middle round running backs who had bad previous season production. 97 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 2: Now why would that be the case, Well, because think 98 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 2: about it. 99 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: If a middle round running back is coming off of 100 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: a good season but he's still being drafted in the 101 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: middle rounds, the market is telling you that something is off. 102 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 2: Meanwhile, a player who didn't have a. 103 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 1: Great previous season but he's still being drafted in the 104 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 1: middle rounds, that's also telling you that the market is 105 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: bullish about something. This is a generalization too, there's a 106 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: lot more nuanced to this, but you get the idea. 107 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: Drafters like comfort, they like what's known, and sometimes it's 108 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: a great idea. Sometimes it's not, and that leads me 109 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: to this question, when is it a good idea to 110 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: draft for that comfort. I'd argue when leagues are larger 111 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: and when lineup sizes are larger, because in a shallow league, 112 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 1: let's say it's a twelve team league where you start 113 00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: one quarterback, one running back, two wide receivers, and one end, 114 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 1: no flex spot. You need that upside. Your fantasy lineup 115 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: is dependent on five players. That's it, just five guys. 116 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 1: You absolutely need some league winning players in there. You 117 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 1: can't have a bunch of Terry McLawrence more than likely, 118 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: which means you have to take shots in some of 119 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: those ambiguous range of outcome players, the rookies, the guys 120 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: who maybe switch teams. We don't know what they're gonna 121 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: look like on their new team. The mobile quarterbacks who 122 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 1: maybe have questionable passing profiles. Now, I'd argue that in 123 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: most leagues that's the direction that you should go in 124 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: because there's only one winner in fantasy football. But it's 125 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: also a preference. 126 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 2: I don't think it's the only way to win. 127 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 1: No. On the flip side, pretend you're in a league 128 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: where you start three quarterbacks. I always like going to 129 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: these extreme hypotheticals to drive home a point. But imagine 130 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: it's a ten team league with three quarterbacks being started 131 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 1: per team. Not only is that gonna drive the price 132 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: for quarterback way up, but because you need more, you're 133 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 1: probably not gonna risk taking on more of those questionable 134 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: players because it's going to be much more difficult to 135 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: make up for that mistake. In a shallow league with 136 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 1: five starting lineup spots, if you miss, you can fix 137 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: that mistake. In a league where demand for those positions 138 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: is so high, it's a lot harder to make up 139 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: for that mistake. So instead you might go after the 140 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 1: boring quarterbacks, the ones I always tell you guys to 141 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 1: avoid in single quarterback leagues, the Jared Goffs of the world. 142 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: In a single quarterback league, he's not really that valuable 143 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: when you can fall back on something like streaming, especially 144 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: with shallower benches, But his value increases in a three 145 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: quarterback league because there's comfort in understanding his range of outcomes. 146 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 2: You know that Jared Goff is going to get you something. 147 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: So yes, your league size, the type of league that 148 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: you're in, best ball versus season long, for instance, it 149 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: all matters when we're describing the ambiguity of a player's 150 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: range of outcomes, and this is something I'm going to 151 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: be writing about in detail in the Late Round Draft 152 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: Guide again this shar year. That should be available for 153 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,239 Speaker 1: pre orders sometime in May, so be on the lookout. 154 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: The next question says, hey, JJ really enjoyed this year's 155 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: Prospect Guide. 156 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: Thanks. 157 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: It feels like deja vous with a quarterback taking out 158 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: one oh one in the NFL draft who doesn't necessarily 159 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: profile as someone with Fantasy football domination and their range 160 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: of outcomes. However, quarterbacks and superflex leagues notoriously hold their 161 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: value going into year two of their careers. How do 162 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: you approach comparing that floor of the stable value quarterbacks 163 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: to players of potentially higher stealing but lower year two 164 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: floor value like a Jordan Tyson or Casey Concepcione. Best 165 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: Henry So, I think this is one of the hardest 166 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: things for me. In the rookie rankings this year and 167 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: the Prospect Guide, I thought, yeah, Mendoza is definitely the 168 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,839 Speaker 1: one oh two, But the more I've thought about it, 169 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: the more I'm like the market for earlier first round 170 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: wide receivers is also fairly forgiving two. Let's just use 171 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: recent examples of wide receivers who were selected in the 172 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: top half of the first round who didn't necessarily die 173 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: dominate as rookies, which I don't think Casey Concepcion is 174 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: going to fit this post draft. I don't think he's 175 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 1: gonna be a top half the first round player, but 176 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson very easily could. This is not super scientific, 177 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: but since twenty twenty, we'll say we had Henry Ruggs, 178 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:20,239 Speaker 1: maybe Jerry Judy, Johan Dotson, Jamison Williams, Marvin Harrison, Junior Romadonze, 179 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,439 Speaker 1: and Travis Hunter as top sixteen picks who didn't give 180 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: us a ton of juice in year one. From August 181 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: twenty twenty to August twenty twenty one, according to Dynasty 182 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: League Football startup ADP, Henry Ruggs went from wide receiver 183 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 1: thirty six to wide receiver fifty two, which isn't that 184 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 1: much of a surprise because people really did not like 185 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: Henry Ruggs. He was probably overdrafted to begin with, so 186 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 1: people were naturally going to be more reactive to a 187 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: bad Henry Ruggs rookie season. But Judy went from wide 188 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 1: receiver twenty three to wide receiver twenty year over year, 189 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: despite rookies entering the picture for startup ADP purposes and 190 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: Judy going for fifty two for eight fifty six three scores. 191 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: It was a good rookie season. Maybe not elite, so 192 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: maybe Jerry Judy doesn't exactly fit this mold. John Dotson 193 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: in August twenty twenty two, before his rookie season, he 194 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: was wide receiver forty four in startup ADP. After a 195 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 1: rookie season where yes, he scored seven times, he had 196 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: thirty five catches for five hundred and twenty three yards, 197 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: nothing overly special. Entering year two, he went from wide 198 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 1: receiver forty four to wide receiver thirty two. Jamison Williams, 199 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: he had a college injury that derailed his rookie season. 200 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: He went from wide receiver thirty five to then wide 201 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: receiver forty two, so he was in a relatively similar 202 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: spot year over year despite really not having a rookie season. 203 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Junior, he was the wide receiver five going 204 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 1: into his rookie season, and he had a disappointing rookie season. 205 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: He can also only go down from wide receiver five. 206 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: Wide receiver five is very very high, but he was 207 00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: still wide receiver fourteen entering last season. He's still maintain 208 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: pretty good value Romadounze wide receiver sixteen to wide receiver 209 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: twenty one, and he had a really mediocre rookie season. 210 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: Travis Hunter, I think is just a one of one, 211 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: very unique situation. But not only that, he didn't have 212 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:17,839 Speaker 1: that bad a rookie value when I did the Cell 213 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: Candidate's episode back in January, and yes, for all of 214 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: these cases, you can pinpoint some story as to why 215 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: the market stayed with that player. 216 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 2: I get it. 217 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 1: Like I said, this isn't overly scientific. But number one, 218 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: we're looking at basically all the top half of the 219 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: first round player since twenty twenty who didn't give us 220 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: something during their rookie season or something significant, which tells 221 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: you that all the other guys did. All the other 222 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: players who were drafted in the top half of the 223 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: first round were pretty good as rookies, which tells you 224 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: that having that kind of draft capital is probably gonna 225 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: yield pretty decent results. If you look at the back 226 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: half of the first round, it's kind of a different story, 227 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 1: like where Ricky Piersoll and Xavier Lguet were drafted. But 228 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: if Tate and Tyson all get really good draft capital, 229 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: chances are even with a bad rookie season, they're going 230 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 1: to maintain some value because fantasy gamers they all like 231 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 1: those wide receivers. This is not a Matthew Golden situation 232 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: where a lot of people were off of him, where 233 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: he had very clear red flags to his analytical profile. 234 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: It's hard to find people who are super super against 235 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: one of those big three wide receivers this year. Maybe 236 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 1: they don't like Tyson's injury history, so sure, maybe his 237 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: value won't maintain, But I also think that Tyson has 238 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,719 Speaker 1: the best analytical profile in this class, so it's hard 239 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: for me to discount the good side of his profile too. 240 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: What I'm getting at here is that number one. Those 241 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: three wideouts in particular, in my opinion, have a legit 242 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: shot to be top twenty assets at wide receiver entering 243 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: year two, and in most formats, even in superflex, that 244 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: can be just as usable as non huge stealing quarterbacks 245 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: like Mendoza. Now, in the end, I'm probably gonna have 246 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: all of them in one giant tier post as long 247 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: as draft capital is there, and also I think it's 248 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: really important if you're playing the value game in dynasty, 249 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 1: make sure you're doing so in a league that's pretty 250 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 1: active that you know you can flip that player and 251 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: actually get something for him. Otherwise you should be looking 252 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: for production first and foremost. But then I'll let landing 253 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: spot and team needs sort of guide me with where 254 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: I need to rank them and how I draft them. 255 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 1: You're right that super flex quarterbacks tend to maintain value, 256 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 1: but the super high end wide receivers they do a 257 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: pretty good job of that too, all while giving us 258 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: that upside of being a true fantasy football staple. This 259 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: next question says Hi JJ love the show. 260 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 2: Thanks. 261 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: You mentioned this year's Prospect Guy that the running back 262 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 1: ZAP model uses a mix of actual and projected draft capital, 263 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 1: but that projected draft capital matters less for wide receivers 264 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: and tight ends. 265 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 2: This is the opposite of what I would have expected. 266 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 1: Wide receivers need to get open and earn targets, while 267 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: running backs just need to be put on the field 268 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: by the team who drafted them, and they're or like them. 269 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,599 Speaker 1: If we assume that the consensus in the form of 270 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: projected draft capital gets us closer to the true talent 271 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 1: level for these players. The logic would follow that it 272 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 1: matters more for pass catchers. Do you have any idea 273 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 1: why this isn't the case? Keep up the good work, thanks, Charlie. 274 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: I had the exact same reaction to this, so I'm 275 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: glad that you're bringing it up for anyone who doesn't know. 276 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: When it comes to the draft capital inputs in the 277 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: ZAP models, I use raw draft capital for wide receiver 278 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: and tight end or where they were actually drafted. But 279 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: at running back, I use a ninety percent weight for 280 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: actual draft capital and a ten percent weight for projected 281 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: draft capital, and that's via NFL mock draft database. And 282 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: you're right, it feels like this would matter more for 283 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: wide receiver than for running back. If you think about 284 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: what projected draft capital is saying, it's telling us what 285 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: the wisdom of the crowds thinks about a player's talent. 286 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: Actual draft capital it tells us player talent, but is 287 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: doing so from just one single team's PERSPECTI when thinking 288 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: about consensus mock draft data, it's gonna center around just 289 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: the players that analysts like best. Like individual mocks, they're 290 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: gonna prefer one guy in one landing spot or another 291 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: guy in another landing spot, But when it's compiled together, 292 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: you don't get that much nuance. 293 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: You just get a set of talent rankings, essentially, And at. 294 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: Running back that's likely going to be compiled in a 295 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: way where the top running backs by projected draft capital 296 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 1: are more of the every down potential bellcal backs. But 297 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 1: NFL teams don't necessarily operate that way when they pick 298 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: running backs. Sometimes they just want the pass catcher who 299 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: can play special teams, not on day one or day two, 300 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: but more on day three. You see that as well 301 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: at wide receiver, but we get a lot more day 302 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: one and day two picks at wide receiver, where teams 303 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: are just gonna try their best to get the most 304 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: productive guys they can possibly get, even if they're mostly 305 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: slot or mostly outside or mostly deep threats. And that's 306 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 1: really the key difference here at wide receiver. When a 307 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: team drafts a player early, they're usually just trying to 308 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: get a good wide receiver. Draft capital there ends up 309 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: being pretty clean from a signal perspective of both talent 310 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: and expected opportunity. So when we use actual draft capital 311 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: in the model, we're already capturing most of what we 312 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: care about. At running back, it's not quite the same. 313 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: Teams aren't always drafting running backs to find the best 314 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: running back. They're often drafting for a role, for a 315 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: roster need, or because of how that board fell, So 316 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 1: actual draft capital at running back can be a little 317 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: bit noisier when it comes to what we're trying to 318 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: actually predict, which is fantasy production over the first few seasons. 319 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: That's where projected draft capital can help. It's not replacing 320 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: what teams are telling us. It's just adding a small 321 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: layer of what the broader market thought about the player 322 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: before team specific decisions got involved. And the fact that 323 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: it only matters at like a ten percent weight kind 324 00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: of says it all. Draft capital is still driving the bus, 325 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: but at running back, that little bit of consensus it 326 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: helps clean things up just enough to improve the signal. 327 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: At wide receiver, draft capital is already doing that job, 328 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 1: so there's really nothing to fix. That's how I'd explain it. 329 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: At least, I don't think it's amazingly intuitive, and it 330 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 1: could just come down to the fact that the wisdom 331 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 1: of the crowds is just better at evaluating the position 332 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: compared to wide receiver versus how the NFL does things. 333 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 1: But I also think it's important to not overstate that 334 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 1: importance of projected draft capital. And there are things like 335 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: looking at reaches at wide receiver that also get signal, 336 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: they're just not in the model. I'll be talking about 337 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: that in the guide post draft. The last question this 338 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 1: week is from twitters from at Darren underscore Feather. It 339 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: says this may be the most novice question ever and 340 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: I'm embarrassed to ask it, but can you explain stacking 341 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: for me? I genuinely don't understand how or why it's 342 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 1: so valuable. What statistical advantages do you get from stacking 343 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 1: a quarterback with a wide receiver or tight end, and 344 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: how does that work look I think it's important to 345 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: bring up topics like this every once in a while 346 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: on the show because everyone's at a different part of 347 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 1: their fantasy football journey. 348 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 2: Some people are newer. 349 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: I think with a question like this one, it can't 350 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: hurt to talk about it, especially this time of year 351 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: where things are a little bit slower. But stacking is 352 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: a strategy that people use to reach a ceiling outcome 353 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: when a quarterback throws a touchdown to a wide receiver, 354 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,919 Speaker 1: and you have both of those players. You're benefiting from 355 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,679 Speaker 1: that outcome. You're scoring points for that throw and the 356 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: catch and all the yards that go along with it. Now, 357 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 1: obviously that can also not happen. A quarterback has a 358 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: terrible game and you have that quarterback and wide receiver. 359 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 1: That wide receiver is going to struggle to be relevant 360 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,479 Speaker 1: if the quarterback only throws for one hundred and twenty yards. 361 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 2: That's why it's a more volatile approach. 362 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 1: But people use it for ceiling purposes because obviously the 363 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: ceiling would be there too. When it comes to a 364 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: game like daily Fantasy, stack is necessary because you're really 365 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 1: shooting for more of those ceiling outcomes. It's not a 366 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: one versus one game. You're trying to beat thousands of 367 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 1: lineups in a tournament. You want that upside when it 368 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 1: comes to best ball. Stacking is important because you still 369 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: want that single week upside, yes, but there's also yearly upside. 370 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 2: Two. 371 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 1: If you draft a quarterback and you pair him with 372 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: a wide receiver or his wide receiver, if that quarterback 373 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: is a really good season, chances are his wide receiver 374 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 1: he can have a pretty good season. Two, So they're 375 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 1: both beating their average draft position, expectation, their average cost. 376 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 1: That goes a long way to gaining value with that 377 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: lineup and then winning in your regular redraft league. Stacking 378 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: is fine, but it's not as necessary because regular managed 379 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,439 Speaker 1: season long leagues is a one versus one game. You 380 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: have a fifty percent chance to win in a single matchup. 381 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: You don't need to necessarily shoot for that upside in 382 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: the exact same way. Now, people sometimes like to stack 383 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: because it gives them a little bit more season long 384 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 1: upside and they like that higher very approach, but compared 385 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:06,120 Speaker 1: to other structures, it's not as necessary in regular season long. 386 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 1: So you can stack a quarterback with any position, most 387 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: of it with wide receivers and tight ends, but there's 388 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: validity to doing it with running back too, especially from 389 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 1: the standpoint of capturing an offense and hoping that that's 390 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: the offense that really outperforms expectation this year. But don't 391 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: think that stacking is an absolutely necessary thing to do 392 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: in your typical fantasy league. It's not because when you 393 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: do that, and when you think that it's the thing 394 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: that you have to do, that can lead to suboptimal 395 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 1: choices because you're just forcing it at that point, that's 396 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,439 Speaker 1: it for today's show, though thanks to all of you 397 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round 398 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are but stretching for 399 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to 400 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late 401 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I greatly 402 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,360 Speaker 1: appreciate it. It feels good to be back after that week 403 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,719 Speaker 1: long vacation. But we got the NFL Draft next week. 404 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 1: There's lots of new content coming your way, including that updated. 405 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 2: Prospect Guide next Saturday. I'll talk to you guys early 406 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 2: in the week.