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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: A single best idea quickly on a FED day. That's

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Speaker 2: the way we roll, and we say thank you for listening.

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Speaker 2: A great set of guests today, great set of conversations.

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Speaker 2: I love what Greg Villier said in his research note,

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Speaker 2: these are confusing times. This issue, the next issue that

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Speaker 2: went on from that, just a confusion on this FED day.

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Speaker 2: It would be good to speak to people with decades

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Speaker 2: of authority. Jack Divine joined the CIA in his first

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Speaker 2: mission in nineteen seventy one was Santiago, Chile. Just extraordinary

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Speaker 2: breadth of career and we were honored to have Jack

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Speaker 2: Divine of the ARC and Group the Console on Foreign

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Speaker 2: Relations on today on our CIA College of Iran. Here

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Speaker 2: is Jack Divine on the nuclear threat.

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Speaker 3: This is a controversial issue today because Tulca Gabbertt went,

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Speaker 3: you know, in March, went down the hill and said

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Speaker 3: that the Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and

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Speaker 3: it was three years before they could deliver it. And

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Speaker 3: that was raised with President Trump yesterday and he said

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Speaker 3: he's really not counting on that information. And so therefore

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Speaker 3: I think there is a disconnect, and I guess I

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Speaker 3: would have a cautionary note for political leaders, and that is,

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Speaker 3: if you have a choice between the intelligence community that

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Speaker 3: says we're going to give you nothing about the truth,

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Speaker 3: and you have political leaders and other countries who have

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Speaker 3: a vested interest in presenting facts in a particular way,

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Speaker 3: I would recommend you stick close to those intelligence estimates.

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Speaker 3: So having said that, there are subset issues in this

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Speaker 3: that I could touch on, which is, for example, we

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Speaker 3: have to be careful and defense of how his presentation

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Speaker 3: of the situation that's not underestimated. You cannot get this

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Speaker 3: wrong and say that it's not it's not a dangerous

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Speaker 3: situation decades.

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Speaker 2: Thet's CIA Jack Divine of the ARC group on a

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Speaker 2: FED day, always wonderful to talk to Michael Data synthesizing

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Speaker 2: his economics at roth over into a stock market called.

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Speaker 2: Didn't talk much about the stock market today with mister Darta.

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Speaker 2: Michael Darta here on the FED and the challenges forward.

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Speaker 4: I'll have to say, I mean, I was quite skeptical

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Speaker 4: of this whole AI revolution. I thought it was a

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Speaker 4: bit overhyped and overbaked. But I've kind of changed my

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Speaker 4: view on that. And this is just anecdotal, but just

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Speaker 4: through personal use of these AI interfaces. I mean there

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Speaker 4: has been a vast and breath taking improvement in what

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Speaker 4: this technology can do. You know, whether we're dealing with

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Speaker 4: health wellness from a personal perspective or your favorite macroeconomic modeling.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's it's like having fifty research assistants at

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Speaker 4: your disposal and you don't even have to be nice

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Speaker 4: to them.

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Speaker 2: So Paul asked a question of Michael Darta, And what

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Speaker 2: you don't see is when I'm talking, Paul Sweeney's doing

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Speaker 2: research to move forward the program. When Paul's talking, I'm

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Speaker 2: doing research. So Paul asked Dart a question, and I

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Speaker 2: typed in Google Gemini and I went to a Blenchard

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Speaker 2: con paper of a zillion years ago on linear rational algebra,

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Speaker 2: very very academic PhD. And there was all laid out,

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Speaker 2: including DSGE, which is what Richard Clare has acclaimed for

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Speaker 2: the vice chairman, who will join us today on the

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Speaker 2: FED show. I'm with data using AI. It's sobering. We're

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Speaker 2: out across the nation. This podcast on Apple, on Spotify,

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Speaker 2: and on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea