1
00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:03,560
Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros

2
00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:05,800
Speaker 1: to give you my favorite bets for Week five of

3
00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:10,880
Speaker 1: the college football season. Finally over five hundred again this season,

4
00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:13,640
Speaker 1: eight and seven. Last week, I'll take a game. So

5
00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,239
Speaker 1: it's been tough this year, but we are heading in

6
00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 1: the right direction. And remember you can follow me and

7
00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:21,919
Speaker 1: tail all my bets on the Betting Pros app or

8
00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:25,800
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash Bogman. Just follow my name

9
00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:27,880
Speaker 1: on there and you can see what I'm betting on.

10
00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 1: Whether you want to tail me or fade me, I understand,

11
00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,680
Speaker 1: but you can find it all there. So let's get

12
00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:38,160
Speaker 1: into what I like for this week, starting with the

13
00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:43,120
Speaker 1: game tonight, Virginia Tech at Miami. This one, the line

14
00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 1: is huge, so if you don't want to take it

15
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,879
Speaker 1: for the whole game, that's fine. My favorite bet was

16
00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:51,400
Speaker 1: the first half spread at Miami minus ten and a half. Here,

17
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:53,320
Speaker 1: I just Virginia Tech has been off to such a

18
00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,920
Speaker 1: slow start in their games this season. They are totals

19
00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,600
Speaker 1: in the first half so far three at Vandy, ten Martshall,

20
00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:05,600
Speaker 1: fourteen versus Dominion, and seven versus Rutgers. Miami's first half

21
00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,280
Speaker 1: totals twenty four, twenty five, thirty one, twenty two. So

22
00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,119
Speaker 1: it looks like Miami will take a big lead into

23
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,800
Speaker 1: half here, especially in the run game. We'll get to

24
00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:16,840
Speaker 1: that in a little bit during the player of props here.

25
00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,240
Speaker 1: But the first half spread that I saw was ten

26
00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,200
Speaker 1: and a half. I went and looked, and I wasn't

27
00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:24,520
Speaker 1: seeing it on books today, But they did have the

28
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,720
Speaker 1: first quarter spread at Miami minus six and a half,

29
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,520
Speaker 1: so a touchdown. I think that's very doable for Miami.

30
00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,320
Speaker 1: So either way at your book, whichever way you get it,

31
00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,720
Speaker 1: I think is going to be solid. Let's go to

32
00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:41,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota at Michigan. This has opened up to Michigan minus

33
00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,080
Speaker 1: ten and a half, and there is heavy rain in

34
00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,680
Speaker 1: the forecast in this game, and even if there wasn't

35
00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,240
Speaker 1: heavy rain, the Wolverines were going to run the ball.

36
00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,440
Speaker 1: Minnesota got run over all last week two hundred and

37
00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,840
Speaker 1: seventy two yards against Iowa. They're fifty sixth in rush

38
00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,800
Speaker 1: yards allowed this season. On und twenty four yards per

39
00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 1: game for Minnesota, the PFF grade against the run is middling.

40
00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:11,079
Speaker 1: Michigan is a very one dimensional offense, and I understand that,

41
00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,399
Speaker 1: but and maybe people think it's a leftdown spot too,

42
00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,280
Speaker 1: So if that's your thought process, totally get it. But

43
00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,080
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a letdown spot.

44
00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 1: It only took sixty two yards of passing from Iowa

45
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:28,120
Speaker 1: to beat Minnesota in their house last week, so I

46
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,720
Speaker 1: like Michigan. They're still top ten in overall defensive grade

47
00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,000
Speaker 1: their twenty second defensive team performance this season, and that's

48
00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,959
Speaker 1: with games against Texas and USC So the real big

49
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,600
Speaker 1: difference to me is on the defensive side for Michigan

50
00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,919
Speaker 1: against Minnesota. I don't think Minnesota is going to score

51
00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,079
Speaker 1: many points at all. Maybe it takes a little bit

52
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,520
Speaker 1: for Michigan to get rolling on offense because they are

53
00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 1: one dimensional, because there's rain, because they just switch their

54
00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,520
Speaker 1: quarterback or whatever. I just don't see how Minnesota scores

55
00:02:56,560 --> 00:03:00,760
Speaker 1: in this game. So I think Michigan scores, you know,

56
00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,280
Speaker 1: seventeen to twenty one or something. If you want to

57
00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,920
Speaker 1: hit this under as well, I understand that. But my

58
00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:07,840
Speaker 1: official play here is going to be laying the ten

59
00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:12,760
Speaker 1: and a half and taking the Wolverines. Here's one that

60
00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 1: I just everyone I know is against me on this one.

61
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,040
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Sooners and the one and a half points,

62
00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,800
Speaker 1: even with all of these wide receivers out. Their offensive

63
00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,800
Speaker 1: line has been bad. I understand that, but for me,

64
00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,400
Speaker 1: it's not about like, yes, Oklahoma is not good on offense.

65
00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:34,360
Speaker 1: They have a very very good defense. Auburn's defense is

66
00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,320
Speaker 1: strong too. I'm not trying to take anything away from Auburn,

67
00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 1: but their offense has been miserable. The defense rou has

68
00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,560
Speaker 1: been outstanding fourteen point eight points per game allowed. They

69
00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,760
Speaker 1: held Tennessee to twenty five points last week after Tennessee

70
00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:49,840
Speaker 1: had put up totals of sixty nine to fifty one

71
00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,839
Speaker 1: and seventy one. Tennessee had seven hundred and eighteen yards,

72
00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:54,680
Speaker 1: four hundred and sixty yards, and seven hundred and forty

73
00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,040
Speaker 1: yards in their first three games. Oklahoma held them to

74
00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,840
Speaker 1: three hundred and forty five. Maybe we heard Josh Heipel

75
00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:01,440
Speaker 1: say they pulled up a little bit at the end.

76
00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,800
Speaker 1: I don't know Oklahoma's Oklahoma's defense is still really good.

77
00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,440
Speaker 1: Auburn has played musical chairs, but like O you, they're

78
00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,200
Speaker 1: switching to the better quarterback here. Peyton thorn No probably

79
00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,640
Speaker 1: played a little bit better than Hank Brown has, but

80
00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,760
Speaker 1: both these quarterbacks are miserable at turning the ball over.

81
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:23,400
Speaker 1: Auburn is sitting here at a minus ten in turnover margin.

82
00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,360
Speaker 1: They only put up fourteen points in their games against

83
00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,520
Speaker 1: P four opponents Cal in Arkansas. How does that get

84
00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 1: better against a strong, strong Oklahoma defense. I just don't know.

85
00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:40,919
Speaker 1: And yes, the top five preseason wide receivers for Oklahoma

86
00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,200
Speaker 1: are down, I get it, but they're not replacing these

87
00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,480
Speaker 1: guys with scrubs. Oklahoma has Petaway was a top ten

88
00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,880
Speaker 1: wide receiver recruit in twenty twenty three, Brendan Thompson was

89
00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,440
Speaker 1: a top twenty five wide receiver recruit in twenty twenty two.

90
00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,840
Speaker 1: They aren't replacing these dudes with walk ons, right, So

91
00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,320
Speaker 1: to me, I think Oklahoma goes in here. A lot

92
00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:04,360
Speaker 1: of people talking about Auburn devil magic or whatever it is,

93
00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:09,480
Speaker 1: the Jordan Ohair, all that stuff. I get it. You know,

94
00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,799
Speaker 1: everybody wants to welcome Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC

95
00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:16,320
Speaker 1: with a beatdown. I understand that y'all couldn't do it

96
00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 1: against Cal, so I don't understand why we have so

97
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,479
Speaker 1: much confidence on Auburn here. Public money is on my side.

98
00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,160
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's good though, because it has

99
00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:31,320
Speaker 1: shifted towards the Auburn site since these injuries. So I

100
00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,919
Speaker 1: just I'm gonna I'm gonna take Oklahoma and you're getting

101
00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:37,160
Speaker 1: a point and a half now, so I'm gonna take

102
00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,400
Speaker 1: the Sooners. And by the way, I'm a Longhorns fan,

103
00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:43,360
Speaker 1: So I win either way. Either Oklahoma loses and I'm

104
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,960
Speaker 1: happy with that, or they win and they win me money.

105
00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,760
Speaker 1: So no bad situations there for me. Let's go to

106
00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,520
Speaker 1: number fifteen Louisville at number sixteen Notre Dame in South Bend.

107
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,640
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the under forty six and a half

108
00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,560
Speaker 1: in this game. And Notre Dame there one hundred and

109
00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,320
Speaker 1: eighth in passing yards per game one hundred and seventy three.

110
00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,119
Speaker 1: They rate one hundred and second in PFF. In terms

111
00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:09,800
Speaker 1: of passing, they're one hundred and third in passing team performance.

112
00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:14,440
Speaker 1: Louisville has the ball. They passed the ball more at

113
00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,719
Speaker 1: a fifty five point six percent clip. But if you

114
00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,960
Speaker 1: go and look at their pace, one hundred and twenty

115
00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,120
Speaker 1: ninth and plays per game, so they really slow it down.

116
00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:27,320
Speaker 1: Notre Dame's defense still very very strong. Their offense has

117
00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,839
Speaker 1: been rough, but you know, twenty eight points against Miami

118
00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,240
Speaker 1: of Ohio last week does not give me confidence in

119
00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:36,719
Speaker 1: them at all against one of the top defensive lines

120
00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:41,160
Speaker 1: in the country here against Louisville. So for me under

121
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:42,880
Speaker 1: forty six and a half, I just think this game

122
00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:48,000
Speaker 1: is ugly and slow, and you know a lot of

123
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:52,320
Speaker 1: people sprinkling Louisville money line don't hate it. I'll say

124
00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,159
Speaker 1: that I'm not very confident Notre Dame. I don't think

125
00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,160
Speaker 1: that this is going to be It wouldn't be as

126
00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,320
Speaker 1: shocking as the NIU lost, but they looked good last

127
00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,000
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. I just don't believe they're gonna put up,

128
00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,240
Speaker 1: you know, a huge total against Louisville, and I think

129
00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,440
Speaker 1: they will slow down to Louisville as well. So give

130
00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,280
Speaker 1: me the under forty six and a half in that game.

131
00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,720
Speaker 1: I'm taking Bama plus the point now. It was two

132
00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,480
Speaker 1: and a half when I took it earlier in the week.

133
00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:23,600
Speaker 1: But this is not the same Georgia team that we

134
00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,440
Speaker 1: have seen from last year. And Carson Beck is the

135
00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:31,560
Speaker 1: same type of quarterback here. But last season Beck was

136
00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,960
Speaker 1: fourth and adjusted completion percentage Milroe was fifty six. They're

137
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:39,080
Speaker 1: both tied for forty fourth this season. Like I said,

138
00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 1: Carson Beck hasn't changed. He has that low A dot

139
00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 1: last season and this season, but this season he doesn't

140
00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,560
Speaker 1: have Brock Bauers. This season, he doesn't have Lad McConkie,

141
00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,600
Speaker 1: who were both outstanding in terms of receiving grade and

142
00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,600
Speaker 1: just you know, first round pick for Bowers. Lad mcconky's

143
00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,720
Speaker 1: with the Chargers probably their number one wide receiver right now.

144
00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,120
Speaker 1: And Dominic Lovett is great, Billen Bell is good, but

145
00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,920
Speaker 1: they're both post one hundred in terms of receiving ratings,

146
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,240
Speaker 1: and I just I don't think that that's going to

147
00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 1: get better against Alabama. Georgia also has a lot more

148
00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,840
Speaker 1: injuries to deal with than Alabama. Tate Ratlice down, London

149
00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:20,280
Speaker 1: Humphrey's down, Roderick Robinson down. There's a bunch of defensive linemen,

150
00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,400
Speaker 1: good defensive linemen that are questionable for this game and

151
00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,080
Speaker 1: are likely to be playing less than one hundred percent.

152
00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,440
Speaker 1: Alabama gets safety Malachi Moore back, they have three other

153
00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 1: players listed as probable, so they're very, very healthy coming

154
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,160
Speaker 1: into this game. And I don't think points are going

155
00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,480
Speaker 1: to be easy for Alabama, But I do think I'm

156
00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,320
Speaker 1: looking for Alabama to make the big play. They have

157
00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:46,400
Speaker 1: way more big hitters down the field than Georgia does,

158
00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:48,680
Speaker 1: and I do think this will be a close game.

159
00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,360
Speaker 1: It's probably going to be decided by a field goal.

160
00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,400
Speaker 1: So if you want to avoid it, I understand that

161
00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,760
Speaker 1: and just sit back and enjoy this and not sweat

162
00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:58,439
Speaker 1: it out. But I'm taking Bama with confidence here. I

163
00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,839
Speaker 1: think Bama wins this game straight up. They're at home,

164
00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,920
Speaker 1: They're dealing with fewer injuries, They're more likely to make

165
00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,120
Speaker 1: the big play. They're also more likely to make the mistake.

166
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,720
Speaker 1: I understand that from Jaln Milroe. Carson Becks does not

167
00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,760
Speaker 1: give the ball away, But I think George is gonna

168
00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,560
Speaker 1: have a hard time moving the ball against Alabama. I

169
00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:18,040
Speaker 1: don't think Alabama is going to have it easy against Georgia,

170
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:19,880
Speaker 1: but I do think they will make the bigger plays.

171
00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:24,000
Speaker 1: So give me Bama plus the point and roll tide.

172
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,600
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern at Georgia State. Look, a lot of these games,

173
00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,680
Speaker 1: the next two games I'm talking about, could be affected

174
00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,559
Speaker 1: by the hurricane. Now I look at the weather right

175
00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:37,200
Speaker 1: and the weather on the day that the game plays clear,

176
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 1: is there going to be power outages? Are they gonna

177
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,600
Speaker 1: move games? They've already canceled. I think one or two

178
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:47,880
Speaker 1: games for the schedule this weekend, so just pay attention, right,

179
00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,040
Speaker 1: But if the game is going off and the weather

180
00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,200
Speaker 1: is clear, these are plays that I like. I like

181
00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,800
Speaker 1: the over in the Georgia Southern Georgia State game. These

182
00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,959
Speaker 1: offenses in this rivalry game both passed the ball over

183
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,320
Speaker 1: fifty per Southern passes at sixty three percent of the

184
00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,080
Speaker 1: time their air raid the offense is high. Passing rate

185
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,760
Speaker 1: is important because he's team ranked one hundred and twelfth

186
00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,400
Speaker 1: and one hundred and twenty fifth and passing yards allowed

187
00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,120
Speaker 1: per game. Georgia Southern has the top twenty five grade

188
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,679
Speaker 1: in coverage this year, but one hundred this season, but

189
00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,040
Speaker 1: is one hundred and thirtieth in rushing yards allowed, one

190
00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,319
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty third in rushing yards allowed per attempt,

191
00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:27,360
Speaker 1: and has given up these seventh most ten plus yard

192
00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:31,160
Speaker 1: runs in the country this season. And their PFF grade

193
00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:32,720
Speaker 1: if you care about that, is one hundred and fourteenth

194
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,480
Speaker 1: in run defense. So Georgia State will run, Georgia Southern

195
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:39,480
Speaker 1: will pass, and the last two seasons this team this

196
00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:45,199
Speaker 1: game total has exceeded seventy. So I both terrible defenses

197
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:50,599
Speaker 1: with quickly paced offenses that can pass and run, particularly

198
00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:52,880
Speaker 1: for Georgia State. I think this goes over fifty eight

199
00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,959
Speaker 1: fairly easily, So I like the over that game again,

200
00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,320
Speaker 1: check the schedule and all that stuff. I'm gonna take

201
00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:03,760
Speaker 1: an under here in Colorado at UCF. These are both

202
00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,240
Speaker 1: high pace offenses here, and the total has decreased. It

203
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,079
Speaker 1: was like sixty five or sixty four and a half

204
00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:11,959
Speaker 1: when I looked at it earlier and took it. Now

205
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,439
Speaker 1: it's down to sixty two and a half. And Colorado

206
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,560
Speaker 1: is a strong passing team. UCF isn't particularly great in coverage,

207
00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,360
Speaker 1: but they do have a strong pass rush grade. Even

208
00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,920
Speaker 1: though they only have one sack on the season, Colorado

209
00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,040
Speaker 1: has allowed the most sacks in the country this year,

210
00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,640
Speaker 1: so it's gonna be this team has only gotten one.

211
00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,800
Speaker 1: This team has allowed sixteen. I just think Colorado is

212
00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 1: terrible on the offensive line and they've given up sack

213
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,840
Speaker 1: totals of eight last week six before Nebraska put up

214
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,640
Speaker 1: six and held them to ten points. Well, Baylor had

215
00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,559
Speaker 1: eight last week, and Baylor had held them to twenty

216
00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,520
Speaker 1: four points before the Hail Mary touchdown and the touchdown

217
00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,800
Speaker 1: in overtime, so They got kind of lucky to get

218
00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:58,480
Speaker 1: out of that game with so many points. Shdorg Sanders

219
00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,520
Speaker 1: holds the ball just a little bit long, younger here

220
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:07,560
Speaker 1: than Josh Hoover, who torched UCF last game. Gets the

221
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,559
Speaker 1: ball out faster than all but three quarterbacks in the

222
00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,240
Speaker 1: country's fourth in time to throw, so he is zipping

223
00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,559
Speaker 1: it fast. Short Sanders not that guy, holds the ball

224
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,920
Speaker 1: a little bit longer at two point nine to three seconds,

225
00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:21,520
Speaker 1: and he is one hundred and twelfth out of one

226
00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,920
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty three qbs. Another reason why he's taken

227
00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:26,960
Speaker 1: so many sacks. He needs to get the ball out quicker.

228
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,640
Speaker 1: UCF is at home. They run an enormous rate sixty

229
00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,600
Speaker 1: six point one percent. Colorado has been just okay against

230
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:38,080
Speaker 1: the run, but their defensive line, to their credit, is

231
00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:42,400
Speaker 1: the strongest unit on that defense. There will be there

232
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:44,960
Speaker 1: will be some scoring in this game, for sure, but

233
00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 1: there's more than enough wiggle room for there to be

234
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:52,280
Speaker 1: scoring and to keep us under this total as well.

235
00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:56,000
Speaker 1: I have three player props for you here. The first

236
00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,040
Speaker 1: one I had to check the weather on these games

237
00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,599
Speaker 1: as well, and I changed one because it's gonna be

238
00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:02,840
Speaker 1: a lot of rain in that Nebraska Purdue game, and

239
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,080
Speaker 1: I was liking Isaiah and a Or but not with

240
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,480
Speaker 1: wind and rain. The first one is gonna be CJ.

241
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:11,680
Speaker 1: Bailey for NC State against Northern Illinois. His price picks

242
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,760
Speaker 1: number is one hundred ninety and a half on DK.

243
00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:16,320
Speaker 1: You can play this all the way up to two

244
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,559
Speaker 1: fifty plus for four to seventy five. And he did

245
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,080
Speaker 1: get rolling a little bit against the Clemson backups, which

246
00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:24,880
Speaker 1: is probably about the skill level of the NIU starters.

247
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:29,280
Speaker 1: NC State has two losses, one comeback and one blowout,

248
00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,240
Speaker 1: but they also passed at a fifty six point three

249
00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,880
Speaker 1: percent clip even in the game that they did blow

250
00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,199
Speaker 1: out their opponent in Week one, forty passes to thirty

251
00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 1: three rush attempts in that win. NIU has been great

252
00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,760
Speaker 1: against the pass, but they have played an FCS school

253
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:47,760
Speaker 1: Buffalo in a banged up Riley Leonard, right, So I

254
00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 1: just don't think that they're gonna hang with NC State.

255
00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,880
Speaker 1: NC State didn't give up in that Clemson game, even

256
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:57,080
Speaker 1: though they were beat They kept passing and kept rolling

257
00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:58,720
Speaker 1: and were able to put up some points. And I

258
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,200
Speaker 1: think that's we're gonna see cgle be able to do

259
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,280
Speaker 1: that here. Against NIU. We're gonna go back to this

260
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 1: the game tonight Damian Martinez and Miami. His rushing yard

261
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:10,880
Speaker 1: prop is fifty nine and a half. You can bet

262
00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,200
Speaker 1: this all the way up to one. Ten is plus

263
00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,240
Speaker 1: seven fifty. But if you want it at sixty, it's

264
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,040
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. Seventy is plus one forty five. If

265
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,400
Speaker 1: you wanted to go up to one hundred, it's plus

266
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,520
Speaker 1: five hundred. Now, Dan Martinez hasn't put up big numbers

267
00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:29,600
Speaker 1: quite yet this season, but the total is low. He

268
00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,560
Speaker 1: hasn't needed to run the ball as much. They've been

269
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 1: passing the ball fifty eight points seven percent, but Martinez

270
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:39,400
Speaker 1: only has games with fifteen, eleven, three and eleven carries.

271
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 1: But he's gone over this total of yards twice. Tech

272
00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:45,840
Speaker 1: is one hundred and fourth in rushing yards allowed one

273
00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty one yards per game. Run defense Great

274
00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,040
Speaker 1: is eighty seventh. They've given up one hundred and eighty

275
00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,000
Speaker 1: one at Vanda, one hundred and forty seven versus Marshall,

276
00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,800
Speaker 1: two hundred and forty three versus ODU, and one hundred

277
00:14:56,840 --> 00:15:00,800
Speaker 1: and fifty three last week at home again Ruckers. So

278
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 1: I know, my boy, Terrell Furman was talking about how

279
00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 1: Votec is going to be in this game. Maybe that's

280
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,920
Speaker 1: the case, but their run defense is still trash. So

281
00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,920
Speaker 1: Damian Martinez gets the ball ten times. I think he

282
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,960
Speaker 1: hits this total, and I think he's going to get

283
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,800
Speaker 1: the ball ten times. Let's go to the last player

284
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,240
Speaker 1: prop that I have here for you guys today, Jack Betch,

285
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 1: wide receiver for TCU versus Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium. The

286
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 1: underdog price picks total here is seventy six point five.

287
00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 1: You can bet this all the way up to one

288
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 1: hundred is plus two hundred plus four hundred, and He's

289
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,800
Speaker 1: had some enormous games here, over one hundred yards in

290
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,080
Speaker 1: three of his four games. One hundred and thirty nine

291
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,200
Speaker 1: is Stanford only eleven against LU. He just was not

292
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,040
Speaker 1: needed in that game against an FCS opponent. Two hundred

293
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,880
Speaker 1: versus UCF and one hundred and sixty six at SMU.

294
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 1: TCU passes at a high clip sixty two point eight

295
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:59,680
Speaker 1: percent and Kansas at their averaging coverage and their averaging

296
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,840
Speaker 1: passh But in like we mentioned before, Josh Hoover gets

297
00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:09,000
Speaker 1: this ball out quick. Betch is averaging twenty point six

298
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 1: yards per reception that's first in the country among wide

299
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,280
Speaker 1: receivers with twenty or more receptions and fourth among wide

300
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,400
Speaker 1: receivers with at least fifteen receptions. So I think this

301
00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,960
Speaker 1: total is very hittable for Jack Betch and that is

302
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,480
Speaker 1: everything that I've got for you guys this week. Like

303
00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 1: I said, you can tail me on the Betting prosapp

304
00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 1: or on Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman. Just punch in

305
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 1: my name to check me there if you want to

306
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,880
Speaker 1: tail me or fade me. Appreciate you guys watching, good luck,

307
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 1: and I will see you guys next week. Take it easy, everybody.

308
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,320
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

309
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 2: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

310
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,160
Speaker 2: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

311
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 2: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

312
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 2: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

313
00:16:54,920 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 2: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting proSP