1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: Here in Washington, where President Trump departed earlier today, he 7 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 2: is now in Memphis, in fact, speaking at this hour 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 2: and an event focused domestically on crime specifically, though he 9 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: used the opportunity to speak with the media once again 10 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 2: about the ongoing war with Iran, and of course the 11 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: latest developments from him today a five day pause or 12 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 2: extension of a deadline for the US to hit power 13 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 2: and energy infrastructure in exchange for the straight offour moves 14 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: being open. He cited progress with talks that apparently started 15 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: this weekend between his envoy Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner 16 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: and Iranian counterparts that we Ron contends no such talks 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 2: are happening, suggest and perhaps they are not looking for 18 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 2: a deal. The President is saying the opposite. 19 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 3: They want very much to make a deal. We'd like 20 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 3: to make a deal too. We're going to get together 21 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 3: today by probably phone, because it's very hard to find 22 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 3: a country. It's very hard for them to get out, 23 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:22,639 Speaker 3: I guess. But well, at some point, very soon meet. 24 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 4: This is where we start our conversation with Jeff Mason 25 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 4: Bloomberg White House correspondent, who's with us live in studio here. 26 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 5: Jeff, it's great to have you. 27 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 4: The President does not want to specify who we are 28 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 4: in touch with. We're not going to get a readout, 29 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 4: presumably from these meetings that would be considered normal at 30 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 4: a time like this. He did suggest that Jared Kushner 31 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 4: and Steve Witkoff are back at it. But what else 32 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 4: do we know about the nature of these negotiations. 33 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 6: I feel like there's as many things that we don't 34 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 6: know as we do. But the right person, I mean, 35 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 6: the source right here is President Trump's and what he 36 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 6: laid out out in that Q and A with reporters, 37 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 6: which was actually in Florida. It wasn't here in DC. 38 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 6: He spent the weekend in Florida was telling for a 39 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 6: couple of different reasons. I mean, number one, we talked 40 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 6: about this in the previous hour. Him saying we would 41 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 6: like a deal I think is significant. That is a 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 6: separate or that is different from what he was saying. 43 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 6: Is as late as last week when he said I 44 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 6: don't want to cease fire. So his willingness or openness 45 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 6: to moving towards a deal as a shift. Then it 46 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 6: was also sort of telling to me that he said, 47 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 6: we need to do this by phone because it's hard 48 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 6: for them to get out. 49 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 5: I guess, I. 50 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 6: Mean, I guess there is a little bit of a 51 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 6: I don't know, suggestion that he's not paying attention to 52 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 6: the impact that the war that he launched is having 53 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 6: on the country that he's trying to have talks with well. 54 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 2: And so when we consider what the country itself is saying, 55 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 2: the Iranian Speaker of Parliament is suggesting that there is 56 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 2: no talks happening, and he says specifically that this fake 57 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 2: news is intended to manipulate financial and markets. And I 58 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 2: wonder to what extent, as you talk about this kind 59 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 2: of tonal shift from President Trump on the idea that 60 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 2: he wants a deal, how much of that is in 61 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 2: fact market driven. 62 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 6: I mean, I think it's very clear that the market 63 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 6: is playing a role in terms of impacting the president's 64 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 6: sense of pressure to get something done, and sometimes he 65 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 6: dismisses that other times he doesn't. Certainly this is someone 66 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 6: who said, just as recently as again last week, because 67 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 6: he's been talking about this a lot, that before the 68 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 6: war started, he was very pleased with where the market was, 69 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 6: he was pleased with where gasoline prices were, and trying 70 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 6: to project that all of that is going to come 71 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 6: back as soon as this. 72 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 5: War is over. 73 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 6: But he had to do the war because there was 74 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 6: this window and he felt convinced that it was the 75 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 6: right thing to do. Now, as the impacts of those 76 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 6: strikes and of this war continue and get even worse 77 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 6: for him in terms of the economy and politically, it 78 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 6: seems to be having an influence over his desire to 79 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 6: perhaps now find an off ramp. But the last thing 80 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 6: I would just sneak into that long answer is he 81 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 6: changes his mind a lot, guy, So you just never 82 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 6: know if this is going to last time. 83 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 4: I'm just looking at the timeline here, Jeff. You were 84 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 4: at the big party on Saturday night. I think when 85 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:20,679 Speaker 4: this post went out, it was what seven pm. Everyone 86 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,559 Speaker 4: in Washington's and white tie at the Gridiron. And he writes, 87 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 4: if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the straight of 88 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 4: four moves within forty eight hours from this exact point 89 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 4: in time, the US will hit and obliterate their various 90 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 4: power plants, starting with the biggest one first. So that 91 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 4: was almost eight o'clock at night, if my military time 92 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 4: is right here looking at the post, there were talks 93 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 4: that day, according to what he just told folks in 94 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 4: the room, is he's talking about two days of progress here. 95 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 4: So presumably he sent that post while Witkoff and Kushner 96 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 4: were negotiating with the Iranians, or even after the session 97 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 4: or not. 98 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 6: And we just don't know. I mean, he did say 99 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 6: today there have been two days of talks. He could 100 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 6: be including today's one of those, even though he said 101 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 6: that they were going to talk later today. Maybe he's 102 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 6: including that on his math. My suspicion is, is that 103 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 6: social media post that you're referencing Joe led to some 104 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 6: quite a bit of reaction from allies, from US friends, 105 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,559 Speaker 6: and from people in the region. So if, in fact, 106 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 6: I mean, if your conjecture is right and he sent 107 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 6: that at the same time that talks were actually happening, 108 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:37,720 Speaker 6: that's fascinating too. But it also it doesn't really square 109 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 6: with him saying we would like to have a deal. 110 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 2: All right, Jeff Mason, appreciate you joining us, of course, 111 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 2: Washington correspondent for US here at Bloomberg. And as Jeff said, 112 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 2: there are a lot of questions still unanswered. We perhaps 113 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,239 Speaker 2: don't know as much as we know at this point. 114 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 2: So let's turn for more analysis now to Anya Manuel, 115 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 2: who's joining us. She's executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group. 116 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 2: Here with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Anya, thank 117 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 2: you for being here on balance of power as we 118 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 2: see the narrative that is being put out by President 119 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 2: Trump today versus what Iran is saying, which is that 120 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 2: no talks are happening. Which one right now are you 121 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 2: most likely to believe? 122 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 7: Happy to be with you? And I can't speculate on 123 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:18,799 Speaker 7: that one. 124 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 8: There's clearly a deal to be cut here, it's just 125 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 8: a little unclear who in Iran you're going to. 126 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 5: Cut it with. 127 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 8: So even if talks are going on, who are they 128 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 8: talking to. Parliament has emerging as a power broker, but 129 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 8: you said he's not the one. The new Supreme Leader 130 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 8: still hasn't been. 131 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 7: Seen in public. They're doing voice. 132 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 8: The Foreign Minister never had any real power and Laura Johnny, 133 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 8: who did have some real power and was seen as 134 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 8: a pragmatist, if not a moderate. The Israelies killed him 135 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 8: last week, so hard to see who in Iran has 136 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 8: the authority to cut a deal if one were to 137 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 8: be had. 138 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 4: President tried to make the point earlier that because we've 139 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 4: damaged their communications to such an extent in Iran that 140 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 4: maybe not everybody knows that we're in talks with one 141 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 4: party versus another, with competing factions here. I don't know 142 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 4: if you buy into that, Anya, but wouldn't this administration 143 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 4: have to at some point have tandem negotiations with the 144 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 4: secular and religious leadership of Iran. 145 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 7: I think to bring this to conclusion you would need both. 146 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 8: There's another piece going on here, which apparently at the 147 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 8: lower level in Iran there's very low morale, some people 148 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 8: from the IRGC not wanting to come to work normal, 149 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,559 Speaker 8: really discouraged because of this ongoing bombing. So I think 150 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 8: there are people in Iran who are going to want 151 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 8: to make a deal, and let's just all hope we 152 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 8: get there soon. 153 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 2: Well, so to make a deal. I just wonder, Anya, 154 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: if we should be thinking about this as just a 155 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 2: deal through the lens of US and Iranian negotiators. Israel 156 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: is also party to this conflict. They have been acting 157 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 2: in tandem with the United States. As you mentioned, it's 158 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 2: Israel who has been leading in large part the decapitation 159 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 2: effort of major parts of the Iranian leadership. How are 160 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 2: they going to play a role here? Are they as 161 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 2: likely to want to reach some kind of diplomatic off 162 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 2: ramp as the US at this point? 163 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 8: Yeah, so far we've seen Israel and the US have 164 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 8: parallel but not identical goals for this war, depending on 165 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 8: who you're listening to. On the US side, we're hearing 166 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 8: the US seeks to degrade Iran's military ability to threaten 167 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 8: US or the region that is achievable. Regime change with 168 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 8: a regime that comes out better than what we've had 169 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 8: before is much more difficult and frankly, probably happened right away. 170 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 8: If you do see real regime change in Iran, that 171 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 8: could be months to year out. So slightly divergent views 172 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 8: here on what Israel and the United States want. 173 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 4: Anya bringing us the view again from Aspen's Strategy group, 174 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 4: And it's interesting how little we know it this moment, Kayleie. 175 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 4: We woke up to some pretty major breaking news, and 176 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 4: we've heard from the Commander in chief twice today, yet 177 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 4: we're still asking the same questions we were this morning. 178 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 2: Well, and in part we're asking those questions because what 179 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 2: the Commander in chief is saying is not necessarily tracking 180 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 2: with the Uranian talking points at this point, which are 181 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 2: that we are not at this time seeking a deal, 182 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 2: we are not speaking with you and Iran of course 183 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 2: suggesting that what the President is trying to do here 184 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 2: is in response to energy markets. They refer to this 185 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 2: once again, as we have seen frequently throughout this conflict, 186 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,959 Speaker 2: as this being psychological warfare, something that is intended to 187 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 2: drive energy prices down. And whether or not that was 188 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 2: the intent, it is the outcome we are seeing today 189 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 2: with oil prices down about nine percent on both Brent 190 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: and WTI. Brent is actually getting closer and closer to 191 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 2: breaking below that one hundred dollars a barrel level. 192 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:49,719 Speaker 6: How about that? 193 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 4: This is interesting, and we're watching the gains start to 194 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:54,559 Speaker 4: pick up again. The S and P five hundred is 195 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 4: up eighty points now, still a far cry from what 196 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 4: we saw earlier, but investors are trying to get their 197 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 4: heads around both sides of the story that we're trying 198 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 4: to illuminate here with Anya Anya, how long does the 199 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 4: president have before he needs to detail this a bit 200 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 4: more carefully for the markets to understand, because these questions 201 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 4: will need to be answered. 202 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, as you said, the markets are in turmoil. 203 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 8: I used to be a director of a shipping company, 204 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 8: and of course the question on everyone's mind is how 205 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 8: fast can you really reopen the straits of Hormuz. It's 206 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 8: probably weeks until you can get some tankers through there. 207 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 8: This is a very difficult military operation. We don't have 208 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,959 Speaker 8: a lot of allies willing to go in with us now. 209 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 8: So let's say you get some tankers through in the 210 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 8: next week or couple of weeks. Great, But for spot 211 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 8: markets on these tankers to return to normal and insurance 212 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 8: rates to return to normal, that might take much longer, 213 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 8: probably months. 214 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 2: Okay, So let's talk about that commercial shipping aspect and 215 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 2: the control around has been able to exercise around the 216 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 2: straight of four moves. There have been a number of 217 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 2: military of geopolitical strategist who have been on the show 218 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 2: with Joe and I suggesting so long as Iran has 219 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: shown it's able to maintain that control, Iran will come 220 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 2: out the winner ultimately of this conflict, even if we 221 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 2: are to see a diplomatic off ramp specifically targeting the 222 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 2: nuclear program, as President Trump suggested, the idea that Iran 223 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 2: is willing to abandon efforts around a nuclear weapon and 224 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 2: relinquished existing nuclear material. If we're still left in a 225 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 2: world in which Iran effectively can decide to choke off 226 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 2: the strait at any point, is that actually a good 227 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: outcome for the global economy. 228 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 8: I agree with that worry, and it's and exactly as 229 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 8: you said, Kaylee, it's deeply unclear where this goes. 230 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:43,359 Speaker 7: You've seen the Hoho Thies. 231 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 8: A far lesser military power than Iran do wreaking a 232 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 8: lot of havoc in the Red Sea. And so this 233 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 8: is something that everyone who has studied conflict in the 234 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 8: Middle East knew that this was Iran's trump card and 235 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,959 Speaker 8: that closing the Straits of Hormuz is the first thing 236 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 8: they would do if really they were pushed. And you're 237 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 8: seeing that, and it is something that continues, possibly for 238 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 8: a long time, if a strife continues in this region. 239 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 7: I think it's a real word. 240 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 4: If there's no deal, If there's no deal in five days, Anya, 241 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 4: we go back to the original threat. We will hit 242 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 4: and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest 243 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 4: one first. What would this market look like if that happened. 244 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 8: Look, the threats by the United States to hit power 245 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 8: plants and others in Iran is probably credible and to 246 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 8: be taken seriously. But Iran also has a vote here, 247 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 8: and you've already seen by their attacks on Cutter, which 248 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 8: took out seventeen percent of LNG capacity, that they can 249 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 8: just retaliate right back. So this is mutually sure destruction 250 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 8: on people's electricity and energy infrastructure, and so I hope 251 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,439 Speaker 8: very much that we're going to get to a deal 252 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 8: before any of that happens. 253 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,559 Speaker 2: Consider that energy infrastructure, just the flow of energy out 254 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 2: of this region. President Trump has repeatedly said, Anya that 255 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 2: we don't actually need the oil and natural gas coming 256 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 2: out of the Middle East, that trying to reopen the 257 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 2: Straight of Horn moves is more a favor for other 258 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 2: countries like China. How do you think the Chinese are 259 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 2: watching these developments right now? Do you think that they 260 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 2: buy it or are they still actively pursuing workarounds to try 261 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 2: to make sure that their energy flows do not get 262 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 2: cut off. 263 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 7: Yeah, they are definitely pursuing workarounds. 264 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 8: As you all know, eighty to ninety percent of the 265 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 8: oil and gas that comes through the straits of Horn 266 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 8: Moves goes to Asia. Asia deeply impacted by this. This 267 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 8: has been hard on China. The oil shock is real. 268 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 8: China has had to absorb some of the price shock 269 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 8: the government and not pass it through. But China is 270 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 8: also winning from this conflict, so they're now able to 271 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 8: position themselves as the actor of stability. That's what they're 272 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 8: telling the global South. And by the way, they gives 273 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 8: China even more materials leverage than they originally had. For example, 274 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 8: eighty percent of global tungsten, which is a key ingredient 275 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 8: to all of these missions that are being fired, comes China. 276 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 8: So this is giving the Chinese even more leverage. 277 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 4: Said you ran a shipping company, Anya, In our minute 278 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 4: or so that we have remaining, what are these crews 279 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 4: going through out there? They've been bobbing around for three weeks. 280 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 4: I think at some point did they have supplies? Do 281 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 4: they have food? I can only imagine the morale on board. 282 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 8: Yeah, I did not run a shipping company. I was 283 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 8: on the board I'm a director of a shipping company. 284 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 8: This is very dangerous, and people don't like to put 285 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 8: their crews in danger. They're not armed, these are civilians, 286 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 8: and so you really have to have nearly one hundred 287 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 8: percent security. You know, you heard the President saying a 288 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 8: few days ago, so well, they should just be more courageous. 289 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 7: But that's not No in their right mind is going 290 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 7: to put it in a way in a way that 291 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 7: they would be if they were running. 292 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 4: Anya Manuel, thank you so much. I think we might 293 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 4: have lost that connection there Aspen Strategy Group, she's directed 294 00:14:58,960 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 4: a shipping company. 295 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 9: Either. 296 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 4: Fascinating conversation and great to have Anya as part of 297 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 4: our conversation. 298 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 5: The panel is up next. 299 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 4: I can't wait to hear what Rick and Jeanie have 300 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 4: to think about all of this. We've had more headlines 301 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 4: in the first half of the day than sometimes we'll 302 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 4: get in a week. Alongside Kaylee lines, I'm Joe Matthew. 303 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 304 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 4: more coming up after this. 305 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchas 306 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 307 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 308 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 309 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 310 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 2: The Speaker of Iran's parliament suggesting that President Trump's about 311 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 2: face today, suggesting that talks with Iran have made such 312 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 2: progress that he's postponing for five days attacks strikes on 313 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 2: Iranian power and energy infrastructure, of course, are fake news, 314 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 2: in the words of the Speaker of Parliament, intended to 315 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 2: manipulate financial and oil markets. And that is the question 316 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 2: we have here on balance of power today, Joe, is 317 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 2: whether or not this is actually substantive progress toward a 318 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 2: diplomatic off ramp in a conflict that has lasted for 319 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 2: more than three weeks now, or if this is potentially 320 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: signaling to financial markets that one could say we're getting yippie, 321 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 2: specifically an oil and in the bond market around the 322 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 2: potential supply and inflationary shocks emanating from this a signal 323 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 2: that people should. 324 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 9: Cool off for now. 325 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 4: Well, markets were already there, of course, and we recall 326 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 4: the post that the President put forth. It was at 327 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 4: seven forty five pm Eastern time Saturday, at which he 328 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 4: said America would hit and obliterate their various power plans, 329 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 4: starting with the biggest one. 330 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 5: First, if the Strait. 331 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 4: Of Hormuz was not open without threat within forty eight 332 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 4: hours from this exact point in time, the timeline the 333 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 4: President has put forth today would suggest that talks were 334 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 4: already underway when he posted that. So it's a bit 335 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 4: curious as we try to unpack exactly what's taken place 336 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 4: since Saturday. And it's where we again with our political 337 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 4: panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzeno, or 338 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 4: with us coming off the weekend, Rick or Republican strategist 339 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 4: and partner at Stone Core Capital, Genius Democracy, visiting fellow 340 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 4: at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Guys, we've seen the 341 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 4: markets pull back well in terms of stocks from their highs, 342 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 4: and in terms of oil, we've come off of our 343 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,360 Speaker 4: lows of the session. Because of the confusion that's been 344 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 4: surrounding this story. Rick, we're asking everybody the same question 345 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,479 Speaker 4: here today, what do you believe? 346 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 10: Look, I mean, I look at everything you know from 347 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 10: a political lens. At first, ye, I believe that the 348 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 10: president's got himself stuck in a bit of a quagmire. 349 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 10: I think what he had hoped for was a quick win, 350 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 10: resuscitate his flagging political ratings in advance of a very 351 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 10: important midterm election for him, and it's turned out to 352 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 10: be just the opposite. You know, my addiction to the 353 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 10: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index true poll of how people feel 354 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 10: and future expectations are way down. 355 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 5: It is. 356 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 10: The index at large is historically the lowest it's been 357 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 10: since nineteen seventy eight. Well, we remember what that election 358 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 10: cycle was, Jimmy Carter going running for re election in 359 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:21,719 Speaker 10: the may Leys and whatnot, that Ronald Reagan won a 360 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 10: landslide victory. If you compare that to the midterms coming up, 361 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 10: most Republicans I now talk to tell me they're now 362 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 10: marking at least twenty seat a loss in the House 363 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 10: of Representatives. So this president's got a lot of work 364 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 10: to dig himself out of this one. 365 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 2: Well, so I guess you need to bring you in here. 366 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 2: Do you think that this is a step toward succeeding 367 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 2: if the President is now pursuing diplomacy a deal of 368 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 2: some kind when he was suggesting previously that what the 369 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 2: US was thinking was outright military victory, if he's going 370 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:59,640 Speaker 2: to be able to sell that message to the American people, it's. 371 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 11: Hard to well if the American people will buy the messaging. 372 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 11: What they're going to want to see is their troops 373 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 11: come home, their lives have improved, both economically and otherwise. 374 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:14,959 Speaker 11: And that's really what the President has got it deliver on. 375 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 11: And that's why I think we're in a difficult situation 376 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 11: as Americans and people around the world listening to Donald Trump, 377 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 11: because in talking about going to the negotiating table and 378 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,159 Speaker 11: talking about stepping back and de escalating, which is what 379 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 11: this sounds like. That absolutely makes sense. It's the best 380 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 11: of the worst options available to him now given where 381 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 11: we are today. But of course it's hard to know 382 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 11: what his motivation is. You know, a lot of speculation 383 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 11: as you were talking about, that this was to calm 384 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 11: the markets, other people suggesting we've been here before twice 385 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 11: now in the last year. The United States has told 386 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 11: iron that we're going to negotiate and then we've hit 387 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 11: them really, really hard. And so it would be no 388 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 11: surprise to any of us if Iran said we don't 389 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 11: want to negotiate at this point. But I think all 390 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 11: of us hope that both sides have now come to 391 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 11: a point where they want to get to the table 392 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,679 Speaker 11: and they don't want to engage in this anymore. But 393 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 11: of course that's a lot of hope, and we have 394 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 11: very little evidence until we get that from our own 395 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 11: government presidents. 396 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 4: Speaking a bit earlier in Memphis, I'd like to go 397 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 4: back to what he said, knowing that we've been talking 398 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 4: to Ron, at least through back channels for a long time, 399 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 4: and people wonder, well, what makes this different. Listen to 400 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 4: what he said a short time ago in Memphis. 401 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 3: Daran, We've been negotiating for a long time, and this 402 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:44,880 Speaker 3: time they mean business. 403 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 12: And it's only. 404 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 3: Because of the great job that our military did is 405 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 3: the reason they mean business. They want to settle, and 406 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 3: we're going to get it done. 407 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 12: And I hope now Arena is one more opportunity to 408 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 12: end his threats to America and our allies, and we 409 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:03,879 Speaker 12: hope they take it. 410 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 3: Either way, America and the entire world will soon be 411 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 3: much safer. 412 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 4: Rick Davis, how do you interpret that this time they 413 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 4: mean business? Is that a call he presumably got from 414 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 4: Jared Kushna or Steve Whitkoff after they sat down with 415 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,640 Speaker 4: the Iranians or is he projecting. 416 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,199 Speaker 10: You know, it's so hard to tell, you know, the 417 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 10: difference between sort of the Trump negotiating style, which is 418 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:33,199 Speaker 10: to negotiate both ends of the spectrum. He talks as 419 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 10: much about what the Iranians think as he does himself, 420 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 10: and we have no idea if the Iranians are thinking 421 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 10: the same things. So he sets up the predicate that 422 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 10: he knows exactly what's going on in Iran. And I 423 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,880 Speaker 10: think we've heard so much reporting that we don't even 424 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 10: know who's negotiating with, you know, with the speaker? Is 425 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 10: that the Foreign Minister? Is it somebody else? Have you 426 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 10: talked to the Iatola? No, we haven't. 427 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 5: So I think we're in the earliest. 428 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 10: Stages of a maybe wind down of hostilities. Although I 429 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 10: think there's someone else in this negotiation that we haven't 430 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 10: heard anything about, and that's Israel. Israel's been hammering their 431 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:17,440 Speaker 10: targets last night in Iran, and I can't imagine a 432 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 10: scenario where Iran is going to cut a deal with 433 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 10: us and leave and leave Israel hanging out there to 434 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 10: do whatever they want to do. So I think we've 435 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 10: got a long road to hoe if we get to 436 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:34,120 Speaker 10: a point where we have secession of hostilities. Iran has 437 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 10: the opportunity to retaliate. They don't have much of an 438 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 10: offensive strike capability, but they can retaliate and they can 439 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 10: close the straight And we have now learned that that 440 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 10: economic impact could have the same potential impact as the 441 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 10: bombs that we drop. 442 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's incredible to consider. And perhaps it is with 443 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 2: the economic impact in mind that President Trump is now 444 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 2: pursuing a deal, at least in this case, at least 445 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 2: in terms of what he's saying public. Where President Trump 446 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 2: seems less willing though to accept a deal at this time, 447 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 2: is in regard to reopening the Department of Homeland Security, 448 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 2: as it was reported that this weekend, the Senate Majority 449 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 2: Leader John Thune went to the President with a deal 450 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 2: that would see Department of Homeland Security x ICE funded, 451 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 2: so paychecks for things like TSA agents as we're seeing 452 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 2: lines at the airports around the country getting longer and longer. 453 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 2: President Trump said no, he wants to see the fight 454 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 2: continue and not have that deal handed down, in part 455 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 2: to Democrats, who of course are demanding changes to ICE, 456 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 2: reforms to ICE that they wouldn't actually have gotten if 457 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 2: this deal were to be accepted, but instead what the 458 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 2: President is saying is continue to fight on the funding front. Meanwhile, 459 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,919 Speaker 2: I will be deploying ICE to handle the situations at 460 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 2: the airport, which we have seen at some dozen thirteen 461 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 2: airports across the country today. And the President talked more 462 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 2: about that idea when departing Florida earlier today. 463 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 3: One hundred and eighty two years ago, a man discovered 464 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 3: the paper clevel. It was so simple, and everybody that 465 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,399 Speaker 3: looked at to say, why didn't I think of that? 466 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 11: Ice? 467 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 5: Was my idea? I called. 468 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 3: First person I called was Tom Homan. I said, why 469 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 3: do you think? He said, I think it's great. Then 470 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 3: I saw today there was some masks so and I 471 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 3: didn't think the masks were proper. I put out a 472 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,439 Speaker 3: statement and I asked them, would it be possible to 473 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,200 Speaker 3: take off the mask? Because they should wear a mask 474 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 3: when they're dealing with the murderers. 475 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:23,959 Speaker 5: And the thugs left and let it talk us? 476 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 13: Will we. 477 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 2: What do you make of this metaphorical paper clip, Geenie. 478 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 11: Wow, it's hard for me to run my head around 479 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 11: this one, Kayley. But you know, one thing on this 480 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 11: entire idea of Donald Trump pitching ice and actually sending 481 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 11: them into the airports. Was There is a lot of 482 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 11: reporting that this idea came not from Donald Trump but 483 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 11: from a woman named Linda from Arizona who called a 484 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 11: Fox News radio show, the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, 485 00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 11: and then Trey Clay Travis rather on Fox News and 486 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 11: said that's a brilliant idea and pitched on Trump's favorite 487 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 11: Fox News show on Friday and Veille we got it 488 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 11: on Saturday, the from Trump's mouth, and this I think 489 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 11: just encapsulates where we are. And that reporting goes to 490 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 11: Brian Stelter, but this encapsulates sort of where we are, 491 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 11: and by Tom Holman's own estimation on Sunday, ice agents 492 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 11: are not at all trained or prepared to fill in 493 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 11: for TSA agents. They can do things like security, they 494 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 11: can do other things, and yet they don't have the 495 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 11: capacity to fill in. So Donald Trump, Linda, whoever came 496 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 11: up with this idea, we'll have to see how this 497 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 11: works in practice. But what the President comments today about 498 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,479 Speaker 11: don't settle, don't settle, I think that's going to make 499 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 11: it into a lot of Democratic campaign commercials because what 500 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 11: he's saying is there's a deal between the GOP and 501 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,959 Speaker 11: the Democrats on reopening DHS and paying these people, and 502 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 11: the President would rather talk about voting and transgender athletes. 503 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:09,439 Speaker 4: Turns out, Johann Valler, a Norwegian, received the German and 504 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 4: US patents for the paper clip. It lacked the final 505 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,320 Speaker 4: full loop of the gem clip, though that was a 506 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 4: much more important development. Rick and I do want to 507 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,560 Speaker 4: mention that the airport is going to be reopening in 508 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 4: New York LaGuardia on time, based on what we're hearing 509 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 4: from Tom Homan two pm local time following the collision there. 510 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 5: Rick, we've got about a minute left. 511 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 4: What do you think of the president's rhetoric around masking specifically, 512 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 4: did he find an opening to reopen DHS beyond this 513 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 4: idea of ice in the paper clip? The way that 514 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,679 Speaker 4: he's talking about this sounds different today. 515 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 5: I don't know, sounds pretty defensive to me. 516 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 10: You know, deploying ice into airports with mass On had 517 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 10: to be the cause of a lot of phone calls 518 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 10: to Donald Trump this morning saying what are you out 519 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 10: of your mind? The last thing we want to do 520 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 10: is terrorize people as they're going to the Final four 521 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:12,160 Speaker 10: or on spring break. What is going on here, and 522 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 10: I can imagine why he retreated on that and told 523 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,919 Speaker 10: everybody take your masks off. U. Yeah. At the end 524 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 10: of the day, Democrats have the advantage on this. Republicans 525 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 10: control government. It's up to the Republicans to get this 526 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,400 Speaker 10: thing back open and they need. 527 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 9: To, all right. 528 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors, the both 529 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 2: of them, thank you for joining us here. 530 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 531 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 532 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 533 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, 534 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 535 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 536 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 537 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,159 Speaker 4: An important day for the markets here, and I'll be 538 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 4: deeply curious to see what happens as we make our 539 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 4: way closer to the close. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee 540 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 4: Lines in Washington, and we certainly have seen a very 541 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 4: different market today than we had last week. But Kaylee, 542 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:12,959 Speaker 4: we could argue that we're seeing a different market now 543 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,919 Speaker 4: than we saw this morning with the big gains, the 544 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 4: explosive gains and stocks and the rapid pullback that we 545 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 4: saw on oil prices tempered now by some confusion over 546 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 4: who is talking to whom and exactly what these talks 547 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 4: might lead to. 548 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, President Trump contends that talks began over 549 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 2: the weekend between his envoys Steve Whitdcoff and Jared Kushner 550 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,199 Speaker 2: and Iranian counterparts that he said made enough progress that 551 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 2: it was warranted delaying for five days the deadline to 552 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 2: strike Iranian power infrastructure if the straight Offoe News is 553 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 2: not open. Of course, Iron contends no such talks are happening. 554 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 2: They suggest that the words from President Trump today are 555 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 2: simply market manipulation. Now, we do have some fresh reporting 556 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 2: from Axioss Barock reviewed reports that Vice President Jade Vance 557 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 2: actually spoke with the Israeli Prime Minister, keeping in mind 558 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 2: that is a third party to consider here when it 559 00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 2: comes to this conflict and a potential end to it. 560 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 2: They spoke about efforts to open negotiations with Iran, discussing 561 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 2: components of a possible agreement to end the war with Iran, 562 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 2: but again Iran is signaling they are not close to 563 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 2: being ready. 564 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 9: To make such an agreement. 565 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is curious. 566 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,120 Speaker 4: Market Watch by Dow Jones is now reporting the same 567 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 4: polymarket trader who predicted the start of the Iran war 568 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 4: is now betting on a cease fire by next week. 569 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 4: I just put that there for what it's worth, because 570 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 4: the prediction markets have been playing into this in a 571 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 4: very curious way from the beginning here. But look, this 572 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,080 Speaker 4: pullback is in terms of oil prices is significant. Whether 573 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 4: we could actually see a deal this week is something 574 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 4: that remains to be seen Kaighley. And where we're watching 575 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 4: stocks right now compared to their highs, you saw a 576 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 4: Dow Jones Industrial average of well over a thousand points. 577 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 4: It's up a little more than seven hundred now, the 578 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 4: S and P five hundred eighty six points, or one 579 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 4: point three percent, pulling back from a stronger gain earlier. 580 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 5: We'll see where we are at the close. 581 00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, keeping in mind that all of these headlines from 582 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 2: President truck conveniently crossed just before the open, it was 583 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 2: a very different story in future starting overnight. So let's 584 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 2: get into all of this now. Is polymarket, I guess, 585 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 2: or at least a trader on poly market is willing 586 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 2: to bet on a ceasefire? I wonder if Jane Harmon 587 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 2: is willing to bet the same. She, of course, is 588 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 2: former Democratic congresswoman from California, form a ranking member of 589 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 2: the House Intelligence Committee, and also the author of Insanity Defense. 590 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 2: Why our failure to confront hard national security problems makes 591 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 2: us less safe? Jane, Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 592 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 2: President Trump says talks are happening. Aron says, no, they 593 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 2: are not. 594 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 9: Who do you believe? Well, I have a new word 595 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 9: for you. In addition to. 596 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 13: Taco, how about cocko? Congress always chickens out. All those 597 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 13: parties you were just mentioning who may or may not 598 00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 13: be talking to each other do not include Congress. And 599 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 13: they do not include the American people. Maybe they include 600 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 13: our allies, maybe they include Israel. Maybe they include a 601 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 13: couple of negotiators for the Trump team, But they don't 602 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 13: include the. 603 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 9: Folks who should be. 604 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 13: Authorizing or not a continuation of this war. I hope 605 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 13: that it will end. I think there are no good 606 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 13: hands to play, no good cards that Trump can play. 607 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 13: But the least bad cards are to try to stop 608 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 13: the military action now and doing it three ways with 609 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 13: Israel two would be a good thing. Not blaming Israel 610 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 13: An including Israel and a decision to stop. I think 611 00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 13: that would be very welcome. 612 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 4: Well, that would be awfully important, right, Jane. I'm glad 613 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 4: that you're with us right now. We didn't realize this 614 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,320 Speaker 4: would drop right while you joined us. But indeed Axios 615 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 4: is reporting that jd Vance spoke on the phone with 616 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 4: Benjamin Nett and Yaho about components of a possible agreement. 617 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 5: What could that call have included. 618 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,239 Speaker 4: The conventional wisdom so far is that Israel has very 619 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 4: different objectives than the US and may not be compelled 620 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 4: to stand down at this point in time. 621 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 13: Well, that is the conventional wisdom, but nothing about this 622 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 13: war has been conventional. Israel has a slightly different agenda, 623 00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 13: which is to seem to me to be destroying all 624 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 13: possible proxies of Iran that's around Israel, especially Hesbelah. 625 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 9: But nonetheless, a deal. 626 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 13: Including some agreement by Israel to stand down on that agenda, 627 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 13: I think would be more powerful and could last longer. 628 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,920 Speaker 13: I think our former allies in the region would really 629 00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 13: welcome it, and maybe even Congress would not go on 630 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:29,040 Speaker 13: recess and stick until it can formalize something. Let's remember, 631 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 13: Joe that the authorization to use. The military force does 632 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 13: have a sixty day carve out, which gives latitude to 633 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 13: the president. I think those sixty days are going to 634 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:41,040 Speaker 13: exploit expire while Congress is on recess, and you know 635 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 13: he low Congress, Jane to Congress, where are you? 636 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,240 Speaker 9: This is your responsibility? 637 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 2: Well so, Jane, if we're thinking about Congress here, of course, 638 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 2: Congress should be potentially is going to be in the 639 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 2: position very soon to have to make a decision as 640 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,640 Speaker 2: to whether or not to send the Pentagon an additional 641 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 2: two hundred billion dollars in funding, in part to prosecute 642 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 2: this war, in part to replenish stockpiles of munitions we've 643 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 2: been expending throughout the duration of this more than three 644 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 2: week long conflict. Is that the time in which we 645 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 2: could actually see Congress step up? Do you think it 646 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 2: may not be a request so easily granted that the 647 00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 2: Pentagon in the White House are making. 648 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 9: Well, the Congress does have the power of the purse. 649 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:24,719 Speaker 13: Let's understand that our defense budget is already a trillion 650 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 13: dollars higher than it's ever been, and the President was 651 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:32,520 Speaker 13: proposing another five hundred billion add to that, and I 652 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,280 Speaker 13: don't know if the two hundred's on top of the 653 00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,600 Speaker 13: five hundred, so he's almost doubling it. 654 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 9: And what is this going for? I mean some of us. 655 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 13: I chaired recently the Commission on National Defense Strategy, and 656 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 13: we said that the dip the defense industrial base was 657 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 13: weak and needed to be replenished. 658 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 9: A lot of this money has to go there. And oh, 659 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:52,200 Speaker 9: by the way, one of. 660 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 13: The things we just destroyed, unfortunately, is our soft power 661 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 13: by defunding a number of agencies and functions of our government. 662 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,480 Speaker 13: Powers are diplomacy, soft powers are development aid? And where's 663 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 13: the money going to be to rebuild that? Because, boy, 664 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 13: are we going to need that once this mistake has ended. 665 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 4: Jane, You've spent a career around diplomacy, and I'm wondering 666 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,240 Speaker 4: what you think of this idea of the president sharing 667 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:26,240 Speaker 4: control of the straight of four moves with the new Ayatola. 668 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,560 Speaker 4: What type of agreement would govern such action? 669 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,760 Speaker 13: Yeah, stay tuned, Joe, I really don't know. I would 670 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 13: think that a lot of countries in the world, in fact, 671 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 13: most of them would have a stake in this too, 672 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,560 Speaker 13: and all of a sudden giving some agency to us, 673 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 13: if we are a reliable partner, might might be something 674 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 13: they would entertain, but I don't know what the contours are. 675 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,359 Speaker 13: I would hesitate to say, and this is international water, 676 00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:02,000 Speaker 13: and you know, sadly the geography is such that Iran easily. 677 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,919 Speaker 9: Can get control over it. But it's international water. 678 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,719 Speaker 13: So I would think some international group would have to say, 679 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:07,720 Speaker 13: this makes some sense. 680 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 2: Well, when we consider the Strait of Horror moves in 681 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 2: the economic chook point it has become, which Iran is 682 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:20,360 Speaker 2: still effectively exercising control over Jane. I just wonder if 683 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,280 Speaker 2: so long as the Straight of Horror moves can operate 684 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 2: in that capacity, and that Iran is able to effectively 685 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 2: choke it off when they so choose, if even a 686 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 2: diplomatic outcome is not going to be enough to assuage 687 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 2: shipper specifically those operating the vessels, that it's going to 688 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,839 Speaker 2: maintain safe passage, that it can be safely protected, knowing 689 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 2: Iran could make the decision at any moment for that 690 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:43,400 Speaker 2: no longer to be the case. 691 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,320 Speaker 13: Well, that's a risk, isn't it. Did we think about 692 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 13: that before we started this action? However, many days it 693 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 13: was three or four weeks ago. 694 00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:55,560 Speaker 9: I wonder if we did. I wonder if the. 695 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 13: President was fully considered this or the team he consulted 696 00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:00,239 Speaker 13: fully considered this. 697 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 9: I mean saying I have a feeling that the time 698 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 9: is right. 699 00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 13: Doesn't seem to me to be a very thoughtful, detailed 700 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,320 Speaker 13: decision about consequences. 701 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 9: And this is a very serious consequence. 702 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,440 Speaker 13: And oh, by the way, carg Island, where there's also 703 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:16,400 Speaker 13: conversation we could take it over, is three hundred miles 704 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,319 Speaker 13: away from the straight or four moves, not exactly contiguous. 705 00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,799 Speaker 13: And I'm not exactly sure what taking it over now 706 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 13: would get us plus except for a high risk that 707 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 13: there could be casualties to our military if we put 708 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:30,320 Speaker 13: boots on the ground. 709 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,360 Speaker 4: Well, if we can get back to your original premise, 710 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,959 Speaker 4: which I believe is Congress always chickens out, Jane, what's 711 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,160 Speaker 4: about to happen, if anything to DHS. This is a 712 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,000 Speaker 4: Department of Homeland Security that's about to set set a 713 00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,319 Speaker 4: record for its closure, and the president is dispatching ICE 714 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,799 Speaker 4: agents to airports to back up TSA agents who are 715 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 4: not getting paid. 716 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,480 Speaker 5: Is that leveraged to reopen or could. 717 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,280 Speaker 4: That in fact spoil things for Democrats to the point 718 00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:58,880 Speaker 4: where we do set a record? 719 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:01,239 Speaker 9: Unclear? 720 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 13: Joe, I mean the idea of ICE agents maybe unmasked. 721 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:08,800 Speaker 13: That's an improvement in airports, collecting data on the people 722 00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:13,480 Speaker 13: in lines. Data for what is a little scary, as 723 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 13: in a lot scary. Should Congress buck the president here 724 00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 13: and fund thhs TSA. 725 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:22,320 Speaker 9: You bet it should? 726 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,879 Speaker 13: And there are proposals in both parties to do this, 727 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,040 Speaker 13: but I gather the President is holding back the Republican 728 00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:32,280 Speaker 13: Party from doing it. Should there be reforms to ice, absolutely, 729 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,200 Speaker 13: and I think members of Congress would support this. 730 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 9: So hello Congress, cocko, don't. 731 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,200 Speaker 13: Chicken out, step up and do the right thing for 732 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 13: your constituents. You'll be rewarded if you do this, You'll 733 00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:45,800 Speaker 13: be punished if you don't. 734 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,120 Speaker 2: Well, So who Jane do you expects will ultimately bear 735 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,960 Speaker 2: the brunt of that punishment? If it's President Trump who 736 00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 2: has rejected a deal that a Republican majority leader brought 737 00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:00,560 Speaker 2: to him, does that actually shift the trajectory a blame 738 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,440 Speaker 2: away from Democrats, who obviously were demanding the changes causing 739 00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,400 Speaker 2: this shut down, to the Republican Party as the midterms 740 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:08,080 Speaker 2: get closer. 741 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,720 Speaker 13: Well, the problem we're having is that the business model, 742 00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,320 Speaker 13: which used to be work together to solve hard problems 743 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,520 Speaker 13: for the country, has morphed into blame the other side, 744 00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:20,480 Speaker 13: and if we're only playing the blame game, we're going 745 00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 13: to get nowhere. And yeah, maybe Republicans will be punished 746 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,400 Speaker 13: more than Democrats, but I'm going to stand in one 747 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:28,600 Speaker 13: of those lines later this week. 748 00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:30,359 Speaker 9: I'm not going to feel great about it. And I'm 749 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 9: just saying that. 750 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,960 Speaker 13: I think if I were a member of Congress now, 751 00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,280 Speaker 13: I can't say I missed the job right now. 752 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:38,399 Speaker 9: If I were a. 753 00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,840 Speaker 13: Member of Congress right now, I want to be solving 754 00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,080 Speaker 13: this hard problem. There are solutions, and just keeping the 755 00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,840 Speaker 13: government closed or this portion of the government closed and 756 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,600 Speaker 13: making people suffer doesn't leap out as the best option. 757 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,120 Speaker 4: Well, we know that John Fune went to the President 758 00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,799 Speaker 4: to try to end this shutdown yesterday and said he'd 759 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:02,200 Speaker 4: had Republican votes to support fund all of DHS except Ice. 760 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:07,560 Speaker 4: The President said, no, how much longer does that mean 761 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,080 Speaker 4: the department will be closed, realizing that he wants this 762 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:12,680 Speaker 4: tied to the Save America Act. 763 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,600 Speaker 13: Well, I think the Save America Act is really unpopular, 764 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,360 Speaker 13: including with Republicans. 765 00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 9: I mean, I think absentee ballots. 766 00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:22,760 Speaker 13: Back in the day when I was running for Congress, 767 00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,959 Speaker 13: where the way Republicans won races and I don't think 768 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:30,160 Speaker 13: Republican governors want their secretaries of state or vorted around 769 00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:31,839 Speaker 13: by the Trump administration. 770 00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,080 Speaker 9: So I don't think save is going anywhere. 771 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 13: And John Thuon, if he has enough votes, should just 772 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,520 Speaker 13: pass the thing over the President with a veto proof 773 00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 13: majority and then it's done. 774 00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,040 Speaker 9: You know, John thun Taco, please do it. 775 00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,880 Speaker 13: And I'm not sure Democrats will agree to his proposal, 776 00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,680 Speaker 13: but there is some proposal I would imagine if they 777 00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,600 Speaker 13: work together, that would get a veto proof majority in 778 00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,759 Speaker 13: the Senate. And the same thing for Mike Johnhnson. He 779 00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 13: seems a little more reticent, but hey, you know, if 780 00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,080 Speaker 13: you want to get reelected, you have to be able 781 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:10,320 Speaker 13: to accomplish something in your term. 782 00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,600 Speaker 2: Well, Jane, I know you've repeatedly called out to Congress 783 00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:15,600 Speaker 2: in your time with us. Today, I'm not sure if 784 00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,759 Speaker 2: anyone in Congress is going to heed those calls. Knowing 785 00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,920 Speaker 2: Mike Johnson doesn't just have this challenge, there's also the 786 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:22,759 Speaker 2: challenge of Pisa Renewell. And I ask you, as the 787 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:27,200 Speaker 2: former ranking member on Hou's intelligence, how difficult this may 788 00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:28,280 Speaker 2: become in the weeks ahead. 789 00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:30,840 Speaker 9: Well, difficult. 790 00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,880 Speaker 13: I think every single thing there is difficult, and I 791 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,600 Speaker 13: think one of the things that is really painful is 792 00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:42,640 Speaker 13: the the the weakness of our intelligence community. Now FISA 793 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,600 Speaker 13: is a key piece of our ability to keep America safe. 794 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,440 Speaker 13: FISA needed reform over time. We did reform it to 795 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,759 Speaker 13: some extent, but again Tacko. Congress has got to get 796 00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,759 Speaker 13: in the game and not just let things expire and 797 00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:57,480 Speaker 13: then throw up its hands. 798 00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,799 Speaker 9: And we need strong people heading our intelligence community. We 799 00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:03,839 Speaker 9: have some, we lack others. 800 00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,000 Speaker 13: And you know, as one of the people after nine 801 00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,399 Speaker 13: to eleven who was there who worked on a bipartisan 802 00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,560 Speaker 13: basis to put our put America in a stronger position. 803 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,200 Speaker 13: This is absolutely heartbreaking and really reckless. 804 00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,040 Speaker 4: I'm going to have to start making the Cocko t 805 00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:24,160 Speaker 4: shirts next. Jane Harmon, it's great to see you. 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