1
00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

2
00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Bramowitz Jaily. We bring you

3
00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

4
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

5
00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:31,240
Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Right now on

6
00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:35,400
Speaker 1: the budget, Barrett Ramamurdi joins Lisa Brammo's Romaine Bostka myself

7
00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,960
Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Surveillance. He is National Economic Council Deputy Director.

8
00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,040
Speaker 1: He's also a member of one of the most distinguished

9
00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,360
Speaker 1: Indian families in America. I'm not going to go through

10
00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,680
Speaker 1: the details because of time, but Barad had been dying

11
00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,440
Speaker 1: to talk to you. No pun intended in the tragedy

12
00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,320
Speaker 1: of Tamil Nadu, so close to Ceylon, so close to

13
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,800
Speaker 1: syrit Lanca. Your parents came in from there. What have

14
00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,480
Speaker 1: you heard from southern India in the last number of

15
00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:08,800
Speaker 1: weeks with their pandemic challenge. Well, look at uh, it's

16
00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:10,920
Speaker 1: tragic what's going on in India. A lot of my

17
00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,759
Speaker 1: family is still there, especially a lot of my older relatives.

18
00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,319
Speaker 1: So you know, we're on pins and needles hoping that

19
00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,240
Speaker 1: they make it through. Okay. I know that the United

20
00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:23,720
Speaker 1: States has taken steps to assist India in uh dealing

21
00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,720
Speaker 1: with the pandemic, including sending oxygen which is badly necessary there,

22
00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,040
Speaker 1: and of course taking the steps that it did um

23
00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,680
Speaker 1: on on the vaccine patents, and so I know the

24
00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,280
Speaker 1: administration is looking at all we can do to help

25
00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,760
Speaker 1: our brothers and sisters abroad, including those in India. I

26
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:41,720
Speaker 1: would be pleased to talk to you about this further,

27
00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,040
Speaker 1: but just because of time in the news flow today,

28
00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,760
Speaker 1: we cannot let us go to our economy. Republicans will

29
00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,920
Speaker 1: say this budget will break America, that is nondoable, the

30
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:56,960
Speaker 1: taxes can't be had. Responded, well, Actually, I think that

31
00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,040
Speaker 1: the budget demonstrates that there's a fiscally responsible way of

32
00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,960
Speaker 1: ensuring long term, sustainable economic growth in the United States.

33
00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,280
Speaker 1: What the budget calls for is a series of investments

34
00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,600
Speaker 1: in our infrastructure, as a series of investments in our

35
00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:13,360
Speaker 1: families and in four additional years of school, all of

36
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 1: which are about improving and increasing the productive capacity of

37
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,480
Speaker 1: our economy over the long term. Consider the fact that

38
00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,880
Speaker 1: thirty million Americans don't have access to high speed internet

39
00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 1: right now? What do you think it does for the

40
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,600
Speaker 1: economy to go ahead and connect those folks in rural areas,

41
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,560
Speaker 1: on tribal lands and elsewhere. Right now, there are four

42
00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,240
Speaker 1: hundred thousand schools and childcare centers to get access to

43
00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,880
Speaker 1: water through lead pipes, even though we know that that

44
00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 1: poses a danger to the long term health and safety

45
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,360
Speaker 1: of our children. The Presidens plan would call for ripping

46
00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,400
Speaker 1: out and replacing all of those pipes, which not only

47
00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,480
Speaker 1: creates good jobs in the short term, creates long term

48
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,440
Speaker 1: success in the economy, and the budget lays out a

49
00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,240
Speaker 1: physically responsible way of paying for all of these investments,

50
00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:57,280
Speaker 1: such that from year fifteen onwards, the deficit and the

51
00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 1: debt actually starts to reduce over the long term. So

52
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,200
Speaker 1: I'm not going to take a lecture from the same

53
00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,760
Speaker 1: Republicans who voted for a two trillion dollar tax cut

54
00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,280
Speaker 1: a few years ago that had no discernible impact on

55
00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,560
Speaker 1: business investment, and that exploded the deficit by between one

56
00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,720
Speaker 1: and two trillion dollars. But there is a question, though,

57
00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:15,960
Speaker 1: especially if you're counting on this plan to start to

58
00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,160
Speaker 1: pay for itself with respect to economic gains, what role

59
00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,360
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve plays in keeping borrowing costs low. A

60
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,240
Speaker 1: lot of people talk to the servicing costs of the

61
00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,280
Speaker 1: US government dead say it's pretty low because of how

62
00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,040
Speaker 1: low interest rates are. How much you're relying on the

63
00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:35,480
Speaker 1: Fed to be an active player in keeping rates down. Well, look,

64
00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,640
Speaker 1: the budget assumes a certain level of interest rates over

65
00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,280
Speaker 1: the long term that I think is entirely reasonable. The

66
00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,280
Speaker 1: other part of this is that there are new tax

67
00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,640
Speaker 1: revenue coming from large corporations, uh and from wealthy individuals.

68
00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,920
Speaker 1: You know, the effective tax rate paid by US multinational

69
00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,040
Speaker 1: corporations was eight percent, and compare that to the tax

70
00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,720
Speaker 1: rate that small businesses pay. Compare that to the tax

71
00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,480
Speaker 1: rate that your average middle class family pays. There's clearly

72
00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,200
Speaker 1: capacity for these companies to pay more in taxes to

73
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,400
Speaker 1: help finance the investments that, by the way, are going

74
00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:08,080
Speaker 1: to be good for those companies in the long run,

75
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 1: that are roads and bridges, broadband internet and so on.

76
00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:12,920
Speaker 1: This is a win win scenario. A lot of people

77
00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,040
Speaker 1: say that higher taxes leads to slower growth. What would

78
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,800
Speaker 1: you How would you respond? I just don't think that

79
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,719
Speaker 1: there is a strong empirical case that the taxes that

80
00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,400
Speaker 1: the President has put on the table when paired with

81
00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,919
Speaker 1: the investments that he is proposing, are going to have

82
00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,039
Speaker 1: a negative effect on growth. In fact, quite the opposite.

83
00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 1: Uh the independent analyses are shown that they produce more

84
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,080
Speaker 1: economic growth in the short term and the medium term,

85
00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 1: They create more jobs, and that they also create high

86
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,680
Speaker 1: quality jobs, which is central to the President's message here.

87
00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,760
Speaker 1: If you listen to his speech yesterday, his main point

88
00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,960
Speaker 1: was that we should start looking at the health of

89
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,360
Speaker 1: the economy. We should measure the success of our economy

90
00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,919
Speaker 1: based on how working families are doing. Are they getting

91
00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,559
Speaker 1: a wage that allows them to support themselves in their family,

92
00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:58,839
Speaker 1: Are they able to work at a job with dignity,

93
00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,159
Speaker 1: do they have choices and they enter the labor market.

94
00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:03,520
Speaker 1: That's the kind of economy the President wants to build,

95
00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,360
Speaker 1: and that's the kind of economy that we are starting

96
00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,960
Speaker 1: to see emerge coming out of this pandemic thanks to

97
00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:10,640
Speaker 1: the President's Actually, so, then do you dismiss I guess

98
00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:12,280
Speaker 1: some of the more normal metrics that a lot of

99
00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:14,880
Speaker 1: people would look at with regards to debt, to GDP

100
00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,400
Speaker 1: ratios and deficit financing. Is that not part of the

101
00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:22,520
Speaker 1: calculus inside the White House? Well, I think it's relevant

102
00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,600
Speaker 1: to look at the interest payments that the United States

103
00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,520
Speaker 1: is going to make as a as a proportion of

104
00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,040
Speaker 1: g d P. If you look at that metric, it's

105
00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 1: clear that by historical standards, were actually very well positioned. UH,

106
00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:36,239
Speaker 1: in part because interest rates are low, as as you noted,

107
00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,719
Speaker 1: and so from our perspective, this is the right time

108
00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,160
Speaker 1: to make these investments, not only because of that factor,

109
00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,800
Speaker 1: but because we have a unique opportunity as we are

110
00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,599
Speaker 1: emerging from the pandemic to rebuild certain parts of our

111
00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,800
Speaker 1: economy that are gonna need rebuilding anyway. And I would

112
00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,000
Speaker 1: just make one one final point here. Our international competitors

113
00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:58,040
Speaker 1: aren't holding back. China is making enormous investments in its infrastructure.

114
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:02,840
Speaker 1: The EU announced a significant investments in its infrastructure. Japan. UH,

115
00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,719
Speaker 1: there is a race to win the twenty one century.

116
00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,400
Speaker 1: The other countries are starting to run. We can't just

117
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,520
Speaker 1: be sitting on our hands. Brought. The messaging that we've

118
00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,320
Speaker 1: gotten from you and other folks at the White House

119
00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,560
Speaker 1: has certainly been compelling. I'm curious, do you guys have

120
00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,719
Speaker 1: a clear ally on Capitol Hill to actually shepherd this

121
00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,640
Speaker 1: through a powerful ally. Look, I think that there is

122
00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,520
Speaker 1: broad bypartisan support for many of the elements of the

123
00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,599
Speaker 1: plan that we are talking about, first and most importantly

124
00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,240
Speaker 1: among the public, where the President's plans are pulling consistently

125
00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,560
Speaker 1: at sixty or sevent And I think that many of

126
00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:38,520
Speaker 1: the elements that the President has put into his plan

127
00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,880
Speaker 1: emerge from existing by partisan legislation. So, for example, the

128
00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:47,040
Speaker 1: President has proposed investments in affordable housing, there's broad bypartisan

129
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:51,880
Speaker 1: support for expanding tax credits that promote affordable housing. So, uh,

130
00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,360
Speaker 1: if folks are going to be consistent with their previous positions,

131
00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:56,600
Speaker 1: I think that there should be a lot of by

132
00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,760
Speaker 1: partisan support for these provisions. Broad Thank you so much,

133
00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 1: Rama Murdy of the National Economic Council, Deputy Director. This

134
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:11,920
Speaker 1: morning from the White House. The only one in the

135
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,440
Speaker 1: room that remembers Anna Kon of Copper besides me, would

136
00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,360
Speaker 1: be Edward Morrise. Of course iconic. It's City Group. Dr

137
00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:21,520
Speaker 1: Morris on oil, on the mecroeconomics of geopolitics of oil.

138
00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,600
Speaker 1: But this morning we focus on commodities at Morris. It's

139
00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:27,680
Speaker 1: not in the headlines, it's not above the fold in

140
00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,680
Speaker 1: the New York Times or the Washington Post, but it

141
00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:34,160
Speaker 1: is China ascendant we see, are you want making a

142
00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:38,400
Speaker 1: jump condition? Do you want strength? Does it signal finally

143
00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:42,720
Speaker 1: a commodity boom? Well, there is a commodity boom. I

144
00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,200
Speaker 1: don't know whether that's signaling it. I think what's really

145
00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,119
Speaker 1: signaling it is getting out of a recession. We're having

146
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:52,920
Speaker 1: the most remarkable recovery following the most remarkable recession given

147
00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:57,320
Speaker 1: the pandemic, and all recoveries are commodity intensive and the

148
00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,160
Speaker 1: demand side, and this one is especially so. Give the

149
00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,840
Speaker 1: depths to which demanded fallen last year. Tell me the

150
00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,200
Speaker 1: inventory rebuild that's out there right now. It's always a

151
00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,440
Speaker 1: mystery in China, but they loaded up. What's the dynamic

152
00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,000
Speaker 1: of inventory of copper, iron, and the rest of it

153
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,800
Speaker 1: in China? Right now? Inventories are really low. Whether you

154
00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:22,800
Speaker 1: look at iron or or steel or copper or aluminum,

155
00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,640
Speaker 1: inventories are really really low. And the question is how

156
00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 1: low can they stay in for how long? And it

157
00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,760
Speaker 1: looks like they will stay low for a long time.

158
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:34,000
Speaker 1: We look at the scrap market for steel, the scrap

159
00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,520
Speaker 1: market for copper, and their their their record levels. So

160
00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,760
Speaker 1: that's an indication that the inventory of things that go

161
00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,600
Speaker 1: into those products are just not available. Taking a step back,

162
00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,760
Speaker 1: just to sort of dovetail both of Tom's questions together.

163
00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,079
Speaker 1: There is a question of how much pricing power China

164
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,319
Speaker 1: still has over the commodities complex, Goldman Sacks coming out

165
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,520
Speaker 1: and saying that they've lost that power, especially as developed

166
00:08:55,520 --> 00:09:01,079
Speaker 1: markets the US Europe engage in infrastructure spending. Do you agree, Uh, yes,

167
00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:04,320
Speaker 1: I do agree. And we've seen it in the Chinese

168
00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:08,079
Speaker 1: effort to damp down on speculation. Uh, they announce they're

169
00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,360
Speaker 1: going to damp down on speculation, They announced that they're

170
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,600
Speaker 1: going to damp down on volatility. Prices go down, but

171
00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:17,080
Speaker 1: then the real inventory situation, the real supply demand balance

172
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,840
Speaker 1: picks up. So China is looking for lower, lower priced

173
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,400
Speaker 1: commodities and they don't have the power to do that.

174
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,520
Speaker 1: There's also a question of whether you can have a

175
00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,760
Speaker 1: commodity supercycle, as many people have been calling this, without

176
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,800
Speaker 1: the participation of oil. And could you have the participation

177
00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,640
Speaker 1: of oil if you have such pushback by investors on

178
00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:39,640
Speaker 1: likes of Exxon and Shell on becoming a greener operation,

179
00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:43,640
Speaker 1: on adapting to a world trying to flight fight climate change.

180
00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,800
Speaker 1: What's your view on the outlook for oil given that backdrop, well,

181
00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:49,880
Speaker 1: First of all, I agree with the view that you

182
00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,800
Speaker 1: can't have a supercycle for that oil being part of it.

183
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,760
Speaker 1: Uh And all the supercycles we've seen have had massive

184
00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,120
Speaker 1: disruptions and oil supply as a real kicker U. And

185
00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,920
Speaker 1: the reason that is important is that all commodities are

186
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,199
Speaker 1: energy intensive to a dramatic degree, whether you look at

187
00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,160
Speaker 1: eggs or metals. UH. Any you pick a commodity and

188
00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:13,240
Speaker 1: it's going to be energy intensive. Aluminum is particularly energy intensive.

189
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:15,840
Speaker 1: But then we look at the horizon and there are

190
00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,319
Speaker 1: two things that are fighting each other. One is demand

191
00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,000
Speaker 1: is not growing the way it used to grow. Yes,

192
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,760
Speaker 1: we're in a we're in a recovery, and that's a

193
00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:29,440
Speaker 1: very robust short term phenomenon. But we look at and

194
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,880
Speaker 1: the big debate is how far away from the historical

195
00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,920
Speaker 1: growth level and demand? How far down is it going

196
00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,200
Speaker 1: to be? And then we look at the supply side,

197
00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:42,240
Speaker 1: both medium and longer term. We have we have opeque countries,

198
00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,440
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and the UA in particular, that are doing

199
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:49,440
Speaker 1: what they're increasing their production capacity. We have a ran

200
00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:53,920
Speaker 1: off the market teetering maybe at the at the at

201
00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,600
Speaker 1: the cusp of an agreement with the United States, they

202
00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,920
Speaker 1: have one eight million barrels a day of oil offline.

203
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:03,040
Speaker 1: It's coming back at some point between now and a

204
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,199
Speaker 1: year and a half from now. Uh, And then we

205
00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:10,880
Speaker 1: have oil oil everywhere and the prices lower because of

206
00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,200
Speaker 1: the technological revolution that took place with the last supercycle.

207
00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:18,000
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't say that this is gonna be right

208
00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,080
Speaker 1: off of oil. Depends on who has it, where it is,

209
00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:23,079
Speaker 1: and no matter where you find it, it's going to

210
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:25,960
Speaker 1: be fairly easy to produce. So it may not be

211
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,600
Speaker 1: a right offul oil here. Ed. But to Lisa's point

212
00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 1: that she was making in her question as well, with

213
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:32,839
Speaker 1: regards to the pressure that is now on a lot

214
00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 1: of these fossil fuel companies, UH, the idea that they

215
00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,640
Speaker 1: should be pivoting more to renewable energy in some way,

216
00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,000
Speaker 1: or at least kind of edging their bets with regards

217
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,560
Speaker 1: to the outlook for oil demand. Is it a little

218
00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,320
Speaker 1: premature now for these companies, for those companies that have

219
00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,040
Speaker 1: traditionally sort of relied on fossil fuels and made their

220
00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:52,719
Speaker 1: profits off of fossil fuels, to make that pivot, Well,

221
00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,640
Speaker 1: it's not. It's not premature to make the pivot to decarbonize.

222
00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,600
Speaker 1: How that decarbonization works is another matter. But we we

223
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,400
Speaker 1: have massive amount of capital going into carbon capture and sequestration,

224
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:09,200
Speaker 1: decarbonizing what's needed, and fossil fuels are needed. It is

225
00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,320
Speaker 1: a uh, it is it is uh uh. You know,

226
00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,800
Speaker 1: it's wishful thinking to think that the world is going

227
00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:22,439
Speaker 1: to grow power generation that's non interruptible based on renewables.

228
00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:24,640
Speaker 1: That's not going to happen in the next ten or

229
00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,560
Speaker 1: fifteen years. So we're in the world where we have

230
00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,240
Speaker 1: to live with fossil fues whether we like it or not.

231
00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,640
Speaker 1: And at the moment, the unfortunate part of the way

232
00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:38,240
Speaker 1: things are pricing is that oil is pricing below its

233
00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:43,160
Speaker 1: social contribution. Yeah, definitely with regards so though the push

234
00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,440
Speaker 1: into more renewable forms of energy, and particularly all of

235
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,960
Speaker 1: the talk we have here about e v S, part

236
00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:51,880
Speaker 1: of the commodity boom that we've seen as of late

237
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,920
Speaker 1: has been if I'm not mistaken, directly tied to that,

238
00:12:54,960 --> 00:13:00,320
Speaker 1: particularly with some of the industrial metals and minerals. Undoubtedly, uh,

239
00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:03,520
Speaker 1: the demand for power generation is ubiquitous. You take the

240
00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,439
Speaker 1: three largest economies in the world, the European Union economy,

241
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,400
Speaker 1: the U S and China. They're all moving towards that,

242
00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,120
Speaker 1: that evy world in a in an accelerating way. Uh.

243
00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,480
Speaker 1: And that requires more power generation. And what do you

244
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,720
Speaker 1: need to do that? You need batteries, and what do

245
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,280
Speaker 1: you need to make batteries? You need an array of metals.

246
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 1: You need nickel, you need lithium, you need copper, you

247
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:30,520
Speaker 1: need aluminum, you need UH, cobalt and manganese. So it's

248
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:35,080
Speaker 1: a it's a commodity intensive environment, particularly metal intensive, right

249
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,640
Speaker 1: for most. I got one question, and this comes off

250
00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,000
Speaker 1: for an important interview with Andrew Force, the giant of

251
00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:44,480
Speaker 1: Perth in West Australia, on green hydrogen. He's got more

252
00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,080
Speaker 1: money than God and he's putting it into green hydrogen.

253
00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:49,960
Speaker 1: We're gonna crack ammonia and come up with a free

254
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,560
Speaker 1: launch here. Do you buy, as a carbon guy, the

255
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:57,440
Speaker 1: future of green hydrogen or is it a myth? Oh no,

256
00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:00,079
Speaker 1: it's by no means a myth. The question is how

257
00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,920
Speaker 1: quickly when we see the cost structure coming down? There

258
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,079
Speaker 1: are two major cost structures there. One is the cost

259
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,360
Speaker 1: of renewables. They are going down and we're seeing what

260
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:13,640
Speaker 1: about but the electricalizers the other one and UH and

261
00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,240
Speaker 1: The big thing that we're waiting for is economies of scale. Uh.

262
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 1: We're seeing electricalizers really made by they're not quite mon

263
00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 1: Poe companies, but we haven't seen the build out of

264
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,280
Speaker 1: the economies of scale that are required. Uh. And that's

265
00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,240
Speaker 1: going to be there. And then the question is going

266
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,440
Speaker 1: to be location, location, location, Where is it going to

267
00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:38,680
Speaker 1: be the combination of electricalizer availability and non interruptible when

268
00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,560
Speaker 1: non interruptable solar in Australia is very well positioned on

269
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,560
Speaker 1: the renewable side. Edward Morris, thank you so much. With

270
00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:47,640
Speaker 1: City Group, we look forward to speaking to you as

271
00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:56,920
Speaker 1: we launched through the summer a commodity boom. There is

272
00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 1: a question of does this data matter or do we

273
00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:03,240
Speaker 1: just really have to wait until September, October, November to

274
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,600
Speaker 1: determine whether this is transitory or not. Stephen Stanley has

275
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 1: been passing through all of this. Mhirst pier Punt, Chief Economist.

276
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,920
Speaker 1: Does it matter that the PC deflator, the key indication

277
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 1: of inflation that the Federal Reserve looks at, came in

278
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,720
Speaker 1: higher than expectation at the highest levels in a year

279
00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 1: over year basis since the ninety nineties. Good morning, li

280
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,080
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think it does matter. I mean, I

281
00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 1: think you're right. The FED is going to try to

282
00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 1: wait it out. And there's no question if you look

283
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,520
Speaker 1: at the detail of the April data that most of

284
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,200
Speaker 1: the uptick in inflation is what the FED would call

285
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,560
Speaker 1: temporary factors. Um, but that can get embedded in the

286
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 1: in the fabric. And I think you rightly highlighted those

287
00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 1: University of Michigan inflation expectations numbers because it was pretty

288
00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,160
Speaker 1: shocking a couple of weeks ago when the long term

289
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 1: inflation expectation number ratcheted up quite a bit. I think

290
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,120
Speaker 1: the FED is confident that inflation expectations aren't going to move,

291
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 1: but you know, we haven't seen these sorts of inflation

292
00:15:58,040 --> 00:15:59,680
Speaker 1: rates in a very long time, and I think it's

293
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,440
Speaker 1: you know, the reaction of people in the in the

294
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 1: economy could be very unpredictable. Stephen, could you talk a

295
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,720
Speaker 1: little bit about why inflation expectations are so important in

296
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:13,080
Speaker 1: determining the true path of inflation? Right, Well, I mean,

297
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 1: if people expect inflation, then they're more willing to accept it,

298
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,080
Speaker 1: and they're also more willing to demand higher wages to

299
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 1: make up for it. So, um, you know, back in

300
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,120
Speaker 1: the seventies, we had what economists called a wage price spiral,

301
00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 1: where every time prices went up, workers demanded more higher wages,

302
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 1: which in turn forced inflation higher, and it just kind

303
00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,960
Speaker 1: of fed on itself. And we haven't really seen anything

304
00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:38,000
Speaker 1: like that for several decades, and the FED is confident

305
00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 1: that we're not going to see at this time. But again,

306
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:42,800
Speaker 1: I in my mind, we're kind of in virgin territory here.

307
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 1: We haven't had an economy like this where uh supply

308
00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 1: is being outstripped so severely by demand in a very

309
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,640
Speaker 1: long time. We'll talk a little bit more about that

310
00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:53,800
Speaker 1: us being in virgin territory because when you look at

311
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,760
Speaker 1: sort of the past pressure economic pressures that we've been

312
00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 1: through here really hasn't come as much from the supply

313
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 1: side as a has this time around. And I'm wondering

314
00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 1: if at some point that does actually start to rear

315
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 1: its head with regards to wages and put that upward pressure,

316
00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 1: that may actually cause some concern for investors right absolutely,

317
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:13,199
Speaker 1: And I think you know one thing that's going on

318
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 1: right now is for a combination of factors and and

319
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,280
Speaker 1: certainly the extra underplant benefits have been cited by a

320
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 1: lot of folks, and and it's probably an important reason,

321
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,400
Speaker 1: but people at the lower end of the wage scale

322
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 1: UM are very hesitant to go back to work right now,

323
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,440
Speaker 1: and firms are raising wages pretty significantly for those types

324
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 1: of jobs, and it's hard to take that back UM.

325
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 1: And certainly many people would look at that and say, hey,

326
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,520
Speaker 1: that's a great thing. People are getting paid more UM,

327
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 1: and that's that's well and good. But then how does

328
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 1: that get UM adopted in terms of how the companies

329
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,679
Speaker 1: tend to price. So you know fast food restaurants have

330
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:50,840
Speaker 1: to pay three or four extra dollars per hour for

331
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,320
Speaker 1: their workers. Does that mean that your dollar value mail

332
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,400
Speaker 1: becomes a two dollar value mal um. That's how inflation

333
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 1: gets started. So that's I think what the fet is

334
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,280
Speaker 1: going to be watching is how much pricing power do

335
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 1: firms have UM and does it look like consumers are

336
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 1: more willing to accept those price increases versus where we've

337
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,600
Speaker 1: been over the last twenty years, where consumers have been

338
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 1: very resistant to those sorts of price increases. So I

339
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 1: gotta say, Tom, when you take a look at what

340
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 1: we're seeing, you do have to wonder at what point

341
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,119
Speaker 1: people look at this and they say, we have to

342
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,680
Speaker 1: look past the noise, and we are looking to something

343
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:27,880
Speaker 1: that is longer in its nature at least. So what's

344
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,240
Speaker 1: so important here is Michael mcketh points out, and folks

345
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,119
Speaker 1: a job. Mike cas to look at this wall of

346
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 1: data that comes out and he sifts through it and

347
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 1: he really mentions their finally declined in the savings rate.

348
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 1: Stephen Stanley, you are claimed at nailing the market economy.

349
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 1: I assume you've never seen savings rates like this explained

350
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 1: to our radio and TV audience. Why guys like you

351
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: are riveted on a savings rate of twenty whatever percent

352
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 1: down to fourteen whatever percent. Well, it's important to remember

353
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 1: that the savings rate is a flow. And the savings

354
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:03,959
Speaker 1: rate went up a lot in March because there was,

355
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,200
Speaker 1: as Mike said, there was this massive influx of rebate checks.

356
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,800
Speaker 1: So the savings rate goes down in April simply because

357
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 1: income is not as high because you don't have that

358
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 1: artificial boost from the stimulus checks. But it's still above

359
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 1: ten percent. I mean, in normal times, you know, savings

360
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 1: rates in the mid single digits. And so what's happening

361
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,479
Speaker 1: is every month people are putting away more money than

362
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 1: they normally would. It made sense for that to happen

363
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,159
Speaker 1: in the pandemic because people simply couldn't spend on everything

364
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 1: they wanted to buy. Um, now that the economy is reopening,

365
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 1: households have a tremendous stockpile of dry powder that they

366
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 1: can deploy. And the question is really does it get

367
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,400
Speaker 1: spent all at once or does it get meted out

368
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 1: over time. I think it's likely to be the latter,

369
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 1: which is why I think the consumers can have a

370
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 1: lot of staying power for quite some time. Well. Actually,

371
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,719
Speaker 1: and this is important, and Michael McKee highlighting this as

372
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 1: Tom just said that we did see that personal savings

373
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,120
Speaker 1: rate come down to fourteen point nine percent from twenty

374
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,160
Speaker 1: seven percent. It seems like people are out there spending

375
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,360
Speaker 1: in force. At what point, Stephen, do you adjust your

376
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 1: expectations for GDP, for inflation, for JET, for activity in

377
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:13,400
Speaker 1: the economy based on the savings rate coming down so rapidly. Well,

378
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 1: we'll see what it does once the impact that the

379
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 1: stimulus checks uh starts to you know, once out of

380
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 1: bates and may or be the first clean month that

381
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 1: we've had in a while on that front. Um, But look,

382
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 1: all through last year, the savings rate was still running

383
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 1: much higher than normal, and so at some point I

384
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: would expect the savings rate should go down, and if anything,

385
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: it should go down to a below normal rate, right

386
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 1: because people are are kind of flush right now. They

387
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: don't need to save um. They you know, they're probably

388
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 1: gonna want to be spending. So we're hearing all this

389
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,679
Speaker 1: pent up demand for travel and all the fun stuff

390
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 1: that we haven't been able to do over the last year.

391
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 1: So I would expect that as we get later in

392
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,919
Speaker 1: the year, the savings rate will actually go down dramatically.

393
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 1: Fascinating Steven Stanley, Thank you so much, really interesting economic data,

394
00:20:54,560 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 1: and more to come. What's interesting into the Memorial Day

395
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 1: weekend is the domestic debate over vaccinated and unvaccinated. That debate,

396
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 1: no doubt will continue into the summer. The new debate,

397
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 1: or rekindling of the debate is the discussion how did

398
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 1: this begin? Where did it come from? And Lisa, it's

399
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: really really come up in the last number of days

400
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 1: on the lab leek theory. Yeah, that theory that was

401
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 1: rejected initially as conspiracy theory or just hearsay, is increasingly

402
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 1: gaining some credence. The US is examining uh some intelligence

403
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: that has not yet been released regarding this, and there

404
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: is a question of how much this is significant and

405
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 1: how much this could change the conversation around the coronavirus pandemic.

406
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: Andrew Pekosh has the actual science behind it, which will

407
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: be helpful in framing our understanding of it. JOHNS. Hopkins,

408
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Professor and hiologists, Andy, is

409
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: your sense that there is plausible proof behind this theory

410
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: that the coronavirus COVID nineteen did originate in a Wuhan,

411
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 1: Chinese laboratory. Well, I think the important thing to understand

412
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 1: here first is is we wanted to differentiate where the

413
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 1: pandemic started from versus the process that got this virus

414
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: into humans. So I think it's clear that this is

415
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: not a virus that has been engineered in any way

416
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 1: by humans. Um. It seems to be a natural isolate

417
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 1: And we think that the way it became a human

418
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 1: pathogen is because it went from bats into animals and

419
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: then from animals into humans. And I think what the

420
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 1: debate right now is about is that last step. Did

421
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 1: that last step happen because of a person coming into

422
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: contact with one of these intermediate animals and then launched pandemic.

423
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 1: Or is it a situation where a laboratory was working

424
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 1: with this under unsafe conditions there was some sort of

425
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 1: a lab leak and that caused the pandemic. You know,

426
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 1: working on these viruses for over twenty years, I can

427
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: tell you that the safety concerned, the safe the precautions

428
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: that have to be put in place are really quite high,

429
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 1: um and so the likelihood of a lab release is

430
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: really very very very low. However, as you've mentioned, there

431
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 1: does seem to be some movement on the political side

432
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 1: today and and talk about information that hasn't been released yet,

433
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: which is I think the big question mark right now.

434
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 1: Andrew vette Bill emails in he's watching the show this morning.

435
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: Good to see that the dog is watching the show, Andrew,

436
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 1: pet cars everyone listening with pets, including France and Liquix.

437
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 1: Can it go the other way? If we get covid,

438
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 1: can we give it to our pets or for that matter,

439
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: to animals of the agricultural persuasion? Yeah, excellent question. There

440
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 1: is evidence that uh companion pets, cats and dogs can

441
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: be infected with stars COVID two and that's probably a

442
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 1: result of their owners being infected. There's not much evidence

443
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: of the virus moving in the other direction. So UM.

444
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: So that's I think one good thing when it comes

445
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 1: to animals, I think we've seen that there are a

446
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: number of animals that can be susceptible to infection. UM.

447
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: We haven't seen huge outbreaks in those populations, but those

448
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: are populations that we have to worry about. The ming

449
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 1: farms in Europe and here in the US for one

450
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 1: example of that. UM. And I think we have to

451
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: pay attention to those kind of things because anytime this

452
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: virus enters another host, that gives it a whole new

453
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: area to adapt, and the virus that comes out of

454
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: those hosts may or may not be better at infecting humans.

455
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: And it makes sense, UM that coronavirus that started at

456
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: a market in Wuhan might have come from the coronavirus

457
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 1: lab down the street in Wuhan. UM. And it's also

458
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 1: understandable why you wouldn't wanna immediately discuss that. I mean

459
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: politically it's difficult for China, and UM, there's no reason

460
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 1: to rock the boat. How important is it to scientists

461
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: to find out where this virus came from. Oh, it

462
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: is absolutely critically important. And that's why I think you're

463
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: hearing some scientists saying we when we approach this issue,

464
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 1: we want everything on the table because we don't want

465
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 1: to rule something out for political reasons, or because we

466
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: don't want that to be the reason the virus emerged.

467
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: I'm simply saying that the critical thing here is going

468
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 1: to be understanding how that virus went from bats into

469
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: some other animal and into humans, and that's gonna tell

470
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: us something about the pathway in which viruses can enter

471
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: the human populations, and that's going to help us prepare

472
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 1: better for the next pandemic if we can find ways

473
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: to limit that exposure. Again, if it happened through a laboratory,

474
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: then that's something we also have to understand. But even

475
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 1: if that was the case, it was probably adapting before

476
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: that to written in fact humans, and so we need

477
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: to go even deeper than that to understand how the

478
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 1: ecology of this virus resulted in a in something that

479
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: can cause such a tremendous pandemic dr petckage. As we

480
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: head into this Memorial Day weekend, a lot of people

481
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 1: are saying if they've been vaccinated, they don't have to

482
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 1: wear masks. They can be with other individuals without worrying

483
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 1: about getting sick or infecting others. Is the risk of

484
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: getting ill or possibly fostering some sort of additional variations

485
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: pretty much off the table if you have been vaccinated

486
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 1: at this point, uh, I would say that if you're vaccinated,

487
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: you certainly are are protected to a great degree. We've

488
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 1: had some tremendous data coming out, especially over the last

489
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 1: four to five months, that shows how good the vaccine

490
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: is working at preventing severe disease, at preventing a symptomatic disease,

491
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:36,239
Speaker 1: and even at preventing transmission. Now nothing is and what

492
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: I really worry about is the of the population that

493
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 1: isn't vaccinated right now we're in We're in a situation

494
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: right now in the summer that the virus is not

495
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: spreading as efficiently as it did in the fall and

496
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: winter when people were inside. So I don't want people

497
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: to get a false sense of how low the infection

498
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 1: rate is because we're seeing a combination of vaccination and

499
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: poor try mission conditions driving these low rates. Come the fall,

500
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: we may see another surge of cases, probably won't be

501
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: as severe as they were last fall in winter, but

502
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 1: we will see a surge of cases if we don't

503
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: get more people vaccinated and are very valuable, particularly there

504
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 1: on the Beasts of Surveillance Andrew Peckhouse with John Opkins,

505
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg School of Public Health, of Professor and of course

506
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: one of the nation's great virologists. This is the Bloomberg

507
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from

508
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: seven to ten AMI Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on

509
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine AM for

510
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

511
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 1: And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

512
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm

513
00:27:52,520 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 1: Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg