1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's bring 7 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: in Pete Earl, economists and research fellow for the American 8 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: Institute for Economic Research. Pete, there's lots of data we 9 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: had today. Let's start with the FED yesterday afternoon. What 10 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: did you take away from FED chair pal's comments? Good morning, 11 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: and thanks for having me leave to be back. So 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: so right now, I think what we're seeing is that 13 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: and I mean I had to dragon a little bit 14 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: of history here. You know, the FED was formed to 15 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: prevent bank runs and bank fancial panics, and then eventually 16 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: employment was added as uh maintainment, maintaining stable printers in power. 17 00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 1: And now they're being called upon to uh look at 18 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: climate change and inequality. All that's sort of thing. And 19 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: so I think the FED is actually a tremendous inflicit 20 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 1: political pressure and it's becoming explicit because I was looking 21 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 1: at the end of the term possibly I think in 22 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: February two. So while I'm not suggesting that he and 23 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: the other governors of the FEN aren't concerned about our 24 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: watching the employment, I do think that the new policy 25 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 1: framework is partially driven by scrutiny from the handle a 26 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: handful of individuals in Congress. So that's what I took 27 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: away was his comments are not saying whereby he said, 28 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: you know, I'm not going to raise rates until you know, 29 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: we we we gain more round in terms of employment. Um, 30 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: I do think he means, but I also think that 31 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 1: some of ms received today might might may force his hands. 32 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:46,839 Speaker 1: I do think that may happen regardless of what's happening 33 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: politically in terms of his tenure. I mean, I just 34 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: can't understand how much further you go in terms of employment. 35 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: If deer workers are offered plus a ten percent raise 36 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: plus five plus five and they say that's not good enough. Yeah, 37 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I mean it seems like what 38 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing is, uh, it's pretty intuitive, but I mean 39 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: it looks like when you offer people more money and 40 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 1: bet are more suchable work terms, they come back to work. 41 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: I don't think that's surprises anyone, um. But what I 42 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 1: think we're seeing, and especially I was stopped to be 43 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: honest today by unit labor cost rising and non plot 44 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: productivity for the five percent that's the biggest drop in 45 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: in almost forty two years. And what it suggests to 46 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: me is that we may be seeing the beginnings of 47 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: a classic wage price fival, which that would be very 48 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: intimidating and any kind of worried something to happen, because 49 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 1: when it happened in England in the seventies, it led 50 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: to all sorts of problems. So where do you think, Pete, 51 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: Those I don't know how many of them, four or 52 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: five million workers, they're just not there like they were 53 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: pre pandemic? Are they Some people are suggesting to me 54 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: they retired to structural change. Maybe yeah, where did they go? Pete? 55 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 1: I think so? I think what it is that that 56 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: is it. A lot of those people have really as 57 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: I as I think I mentioned less half song, and 58 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 1: I think there's a huge sociological change happening where people 59 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: are really starting to look closely at what they've spent 60 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: the last few decades doing. If they didn't like it, 61 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: they are actively trying to change their their careers and 62 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: and and and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot 63 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,519 Speaker 1: of that doesn't involve safe schooling. I don't think a 64 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: lot of people right now have. I don't think as 65 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 1: many pops out of the workforce are necessarily going to 66 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,119 Speaker 1: community college. We're receiving other forms of training. I think 67 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: a lot of them are trying to figure out what 68 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: they can do to to to enjoyal lives more and 69 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: still make pretty reasonable money. And they retairemplanment agencies and 70 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: websites and all that sort of thing dedicates a remote 71 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: work now, So uh yeah, I think I think I 72 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: think it is a structural change. I don't think it's frictional. 73 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: All right, So that's interesting and it um but it 74 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: but it but it threatens the idea that inflation is 75 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: less transitory. And then we're hearing more and more people 76 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: talk about the FED is maybe laying the groundwork for 77 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: a price wage spiral. I think everyone agrees we're not 78 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: there yet. But um, what can Jerome Powell do, especially 79 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: if inflation is um supply constrained. There's that doesn't seem 80 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: like monetary policy has much teeth in in any kind 81 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: of good way. Right, So we are more vulnerable to 82 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: the wage price spiral I was describbling for given the 83 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: cons we have a shipping and all that sort of thing. 84 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 1: Those the crisis and shipping and getting step to ports 85 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: and uh this infols sort of spontaneously emergent floatstilla. That's 86 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: they're they're gathering off of all these ports to try 87 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: and get into these ports and then then get to 88 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 1: all their carpons containers off. Um. You know that that 89 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: that increases the vulnerability to these these wage increases. But 90 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 1: that's for what power can do. Um, it's gonna be 91 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: first he's gonna expending in the table that's the person 92 00:04:55,600 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: because that's still't expensionary monitor policy. At that point, it 93 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: becomes a question of whether and how much to rage 94 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 1: rates and that sort of thing. And that's what we're 95 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: going to affect, uh, you know, the the the consumer 96 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: demand and that sort of thing. It's not gonna of 97 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: course affectum shipping on that. So sometimes thinks to go away. 98 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: Some of those pressures are not going to receive until 99 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: we see uh sometimes at least of what's happening ports. Yeah, alright, Pete, great, 100 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: getting a little bit of time with you not enough again, 101 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: We're gonna have to rebook you. Pete Earl, their economists 102 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: and research fell at the American Institute for Economic Research. 103 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: This is bloomberg when you think about workers that have 104 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 1: really been disrupted by this pandemic. Boy, you can't. You 105 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: have to start with the healthcare workers. We had so 106 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: many images early in the pandemic here in New York 107 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 1: and there's just healthcare workers completely worn down given the 108 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: hours and the pressures they were under. Hopefully things are 109 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: getting better. We had jobless numbers today, they came in 110 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 1: better and expected. Let's see how that kind of translates 111 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: into that healthcare space. Janet Elkins, President and chief executive 112 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: officers of Icon Medical Network, joins us on the phone 113 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: from the Big D Dallas, Texas. Jan I thanks so 114 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: much for taking the time. I'd love to just start 115 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: kind of stepping back and looking at the health care sector. 116 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: I think about, boy, all those brave healthcare workers throughout 117 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 1: this pandemic who have put themselves on the line to 118 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: keep us safe and to treat us during this pandemic. 119 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: Give us a sense of how they're doing today. Well, 120 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: first of all, thanks for having me on and it's 121 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: still really difficult for them. Um. You know, if you 122 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 1: look at overall in the healthcare center, I mean, the 123 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: healthcare quits are up three from two nineteen, so it's substantial. 124 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: A lot of them are still very burnt out. And 125 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: we're concerned about what this means down the road in 126 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: terms of just not having enough, particularly obviously nurses and physicians. Yeah, 127 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 1: I that is terrible concern. And I have always thought, 128 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: especially nurses deserved to me a lot more nurses. Just 129 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: kind of anecdote with a couple of young women who 130 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 1: have just graduated nursing school and they're going in and 131 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: they're going in with great enthusiasm, and God bless him, 132 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: but you know, I'm just worried are there enough of them? Well? 133 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: And not only that, um I and Janet, tell me 134 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: what you think about this. I just did a story 135 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: on meat packers and how difficult it is to hire 136 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: people for that industry because the environment is, um you know, 137 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: it's a really hard work environment. But nurses, not only 138 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: are they underpaid. I think everyone who's spent time in 139 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 1: a hospital can agree they have an incredibly difficult work environment. 140 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: They really do. And you know, it's interesting. I'll tell 141 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: you a story about one nurse is an example of 142 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: what hospitals need to do going forward past the pandemic 143 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: to be able to attract and retain their nurses. I 144 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 1: know of just one example of someone who was working 145 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 1: full time for a hospital, wanted to go back and 146 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: get for graduate degree, wanted to continue to work full time, 147 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: but asked, could you just schedue only three days in 148 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: a row to make it eat you with my classes? 149 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: They wouldn't do it. So what did she do? She quit? 150 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: She went back to the sam hospital as a per 151 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: diem nurse, made more in two days, and she didn't free. 152 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: That kind of thing just can't exist anymore within the 153 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: generation that we're talking to, you know, Jennet, we're seeing 154 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: across many many industries. It appears, at least at this 155 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: point that flexible working schedules are the new reality of 156 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: the five days in the office for most is not 157 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: gonna be the norm. Talk to us about that that 158 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,839 Speaker 1: the healthcare space, how are they going to be harder? 159 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: In healthcare? Got to be harder because you want as 160 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 1: a as a patient, at least you want to see 161 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: your same nurse every day. But it's exactly I would think. So, 162 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: you know, Jennet, what's the healthcare in dustry doing to 163 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: deal with the new work environment. Did they just simply 164 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: raise wages. I think that's the only part of it. 165 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: I think you can only pay people so much. I 166 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 1: think it's also again, just more flexibility of schedules. Mean, yes, 167 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: you're right for a bedside nurse, you really have to 168 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: be at the hospital. But I think that they would 169 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: be more flexible with the schedules probably, I mean, I'm 170 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: in the temporary staffing space, but be more sensitive to that. 171 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 1: We see it with our physicians as well. They are 172 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: quitting in record numbers from hospitals and other health care 173 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: facilities as well. They just the younger generation doesn't want 174 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 1: that kind of lifestyle anymore. It's making it there. And 175 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 1: by the way, you're not just seeing it there. We're 176 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: seeing in the dental profession as well. Gone in the 177 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 1: days of somebody opening up their own clinic and they 178 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: do it until they retire. They're going to those big 179 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 1: d s O s. Because they want the flexibility of 180 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: the lifestyle. You know what I wonder as we I'm 181 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: looking around at different communities and schools and I noticed 182 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: one of the benefits of a higher income community is 183 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: that teachers want to live and work there, and the opposite, 184 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: of course, is true oftentimes of a lower income community. 185 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: Do you see the same Do you face the same 186 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 1: problems when you're looking to staff places that aren't you know, Austin, 187 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: Texas or San Diego, California. Oh, I mean, world is 188 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: always going to be more difficult and more difficult now 189 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,599 Speaker 1: than ever because when you look at the trends of 190 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: vaccination and the trends of infection, it's going to be 191 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 1: higher in the rural areas often to begin with. So 192 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: you layer that on top of the fact that it's 193 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: just not considered as desirable location. All right, Janet, really 194 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: fascinating stuff, and it's always great to get some insight 195 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: from you. I think we we all learn a little 196 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: bit when you come on Janet Elkin, President, chief executive 197 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: officer of Icon Medical Network talking to us out of 198 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: the lone Stars d D. You know, it is a 199 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: good time to be an m and a banker. Record 200 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: year deals glory. It doesn't matter. You don't even have 201 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: to get on a plane really to get these deals done. 202 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: You're kind of doing a via zoom. So it sound bitter, Yeah, 203 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: it is. I used to love kind of racing around 204 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: doing deals. But anyway, new world here. But the m 205 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: n A fees are still coming in. Let's get a 206 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,679 Speaker 1: handle on what's kind of driving it this year and 207 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: kind of what the outlook is. We can do that 208 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: with Tom Bowen. He's the CEO and president of the 209 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: Association for Corporate Growth. So Tom, thanks so much for 210 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: joining us here. It seems like a perfect storm kind 211 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: of brewed here. We've got, you know, super low interest rates, 212 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: we've got high stock prices, we've got a recovering global economy. 213 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: Pretty good time. If I want to do a deal, 214 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: now's a good time. Give us to your thoughts about 215 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 1: today's mn A market. Yeah, good morning, and thanks for 216 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 1: having me. There's actually, in addition to those, there's there's 217 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 1: kind of four key drivers were seeing. Number one is 218 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: these expected uh tax changes, changes to the tax code, 219 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: capital gains, uh, you know, other types of things carried 220 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: interest that that folks are afraid of. Maybe that's a 221 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: little bit less important right now with the shakiness of 222 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: the deal for the Biden administration, but still driving people 223 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: to want to get done deals before the end of 224 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: the end of the year. Um, we've got this whole 225 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 1: entire idea of the ease trillion dollar whilet they have 226 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 1: a ton of money sitting on the side, a lot 227 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 1: of dry power drive dry powder. UM, so we know 228 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: that there's a huge amount of money out there waiting 229 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: to be deployed. There's also this focus on really taking 230 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: this whole uh platform focused business model and putting that 231 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: into place. We're seeing that in medical UH field, We're 232 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 1: seeing that in veterinary. We're seeing it more and more 233 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: like franchise franchise type models. It's happening over and over. 234 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: Expand on that a little bit time. What do you 235 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: mean by platform focused business model? Yeah, so you know, 236 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: for traditionally, if you look at your veterinary business or 237 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: a veterinary practice, it was a single one mont of 238 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 1: pop or maybe they've owned to practices. Now there's this 239 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: focus on really taking those and bringing them to multiples 240 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 1: of a hundred practices and spreading the costs of development, 241 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: marketing and UM systems all across. Pe has done an 242 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 1: amazing job of that really overall, and they've really started 243 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 1: to deploy that to areas where we haven't seen that before. 244 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,199 Speaker 1: Certainly in the medical field. Uh, and now it's happening 245 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 1: more and more in just about every other area. They 246 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: do a really good job, all right. So that that 247 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: was three. What's the fourth? Yeah, the last one is, 248 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: you know, people post pandemic fatigue. Uh, family and owned 249 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: businesses are getting tired. They're looking for an exit there. 250 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 1: They don't want to keep up the fight, and PE 251 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 1: has the money and the inclination to come in uh 252 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 1: and sign the check. So one of the things I'm 253 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: concerned about his former bankers evaluation. That was kind of 254 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: as a young banker, that was my job to run 255 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,599 Speaker 1: all the models um in terms of valuation, that this 256 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: kind of cash flow the comps um. Is there a 257 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: risk here, particularly with all that private equity money on 258 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 1: the sidelines, the buyers are overpaying here, there is a risk. 259 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 1: I think it's dependent upon which sector. I mean, we're 260 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: looking at for a veterinary. Using that veterinary example, we're 261 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 1: looking at twelve to fourteen times ebada. In many cases, 262 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: is that the stay annable. I don't think so. I 263 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: guess it depends on how much they can how much 264 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 1: of the cost they can keep pressing out on the 265 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: on the expense side to really make it worthwhile. I 266 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: think that my prediction is, or what we're seeing in 267 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: our data so far, is that at the end of 268 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: this year, we're gonna start to see prices come down 269 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: significantly for some of these deals because some of these pressures, 270 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: these four pressures we're seeing, will start to alleviate, particularly 271 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: on the tax the tax increase side. Alright, So what 272 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: about UM next year when we when we see those 273 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: things alleviate a little bit and UM deals slow down? 274 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: I just how is that going to work out for 275 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: the industry. I think the biggest pressure that the industry 276 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: is going to see this next year is all around inflation, uh, 277 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: and what inflation does the deal flow overall, and how 278 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 1: they're able to capitalize either on it or um UM 279 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: you know, have it slow down some of the growth. 280 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: So I think there's a there are a couple of 281 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: forces that we're seeing that it be incredibly UM difficult. 282 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: I think that's number one right now overall, and then 283 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: obviously the labor shortage UM that could go either way. 284 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: But again I think it's very very sector specific. So 285 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: what are the sectors that you think next year we 286 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: should pay attention to? I will say it until I'm blue. 287 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: In the based medical medical medical, it continues to grow, 288 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: It continues to grow, It continues the prices continue to increase. Uh, 289 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: there seems to be nothing stopping it. We're getting older, 290 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: the population is aging, and it is is absolutely one 291 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: of those UM sectors that do incredibly well being put 292 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: on a platform type of approach and squeezing out a 293 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: lot of the duplicate costs. It's amazing. How you know, 294 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: when when you talk to tech people, they want to 295 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: focus on medical. When you talk to real estate commercial, 296 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: real estate people, they want to focus on medical. When 297 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: we talk to an M and A guy, Uh, you 298 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: want to focus on medical because you're getting you're you're 299 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: getting old, Matt, So we need i you know tomorrow, 300 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: I'm turning forty eight tomorrow. No way, Yeah, all right, 301 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: all right, Tom, thanks so much for joining us, Tom Bone. 302 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: They're talking to us about what's going on in the 303 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: M and A world, and really interesting to get his 304 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: floor drivers of what we should be watching right now. Alright, 305 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: we got Joe Matthew Washing, correspond and host of Bloomberg 306 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: Sound on which you can hear weekdays at five km 307 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Joe let's start with the elections. Should 308 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: the Democrats I'm not say panicking, but should they take 309 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: a really long, hard look at themselves in the mirror here? 310 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: Well they are okay, We're about to hear from Speaker 311 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi, who seems motivated by the results on election night. 312 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: And you know, even though it was a win or 313 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 1: a called win at least for Phil Murphy and New Jersey, 314 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: the trend is clear this was a much better experience 315 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 1: for Republicans than any want to imagine, and a lot 316 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: more painful for Democrats. And so now there's a turn 317 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: to the moderates on on Capitol Hill, and it looks 318 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: like we're gonna get some voting here. The Rules Committee 319 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: in the House was at it until after midnight last 320 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 1: night as they try to prepare for votes who could 321 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 1: be tonight. We're we're hearing from the leadership here. There 322 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: was a caucus meeting earlier. Nancy Pelosi says they want 323 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 1: to vote on this reconciliation bill as soon as tonight. Now, 324 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 1: of course, if that's the case, um, it's gonna be 325 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,400 Speaker 1: interesting to see what makes it into the bill, because 326 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: they're still talking about adding more stuff back in like 327 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 1: paid leave and and prescription drug pricing and so forth. 328 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 1: But here's the thing, guys. They know what's gonna go 329 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: to the Senate's gonna come back in a different form. 330 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: So Nancy Pelosi can even stack this thing up if 331 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: she wants to, it's gonna come back from the Senate 332 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: much skinnier fashion, at which point they may have no 333 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 1: choice but to just to prove it in the form 334 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: that it's in at that point, so there might be 335 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,159 Speaker 1: light at the end of this tunnel. What was really 336 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: the problem? I mean, um, President Biden yesterday made a 337 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: couple of what I thought were slightly conflicting statements, because 338 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 1: first he said, this isn't anything to do with my 339 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 1: legislation or my agenda, you know, but if they passed this, 340 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 1: what if they passed it wouldnt have made a difference. 341 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: And then later he said, this clearly shows that they 342 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: want the American people want to see us get to work. 343 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 1: We're fine, But what what was it? Was it Afghanistan 344 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 1: or people unhappy about that? Is it taxes? Are people 345 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 1: afraid that they're gonna have to start paying a lot more? 346 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 1: Getting closer, I think that yes, look to talk about inflation, 347 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: to talk about tax and spend is starting to just 348 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 1: wear people down. And there is a conventional wisdom in 349 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party that if they had passed the Biden agenda, 350 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 1: by God, this would have turned out differently. I'm not 351 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 1: sure that that's true. I have a hard time connecting 352 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: a lot of the dots here. People don't vote on 353 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: the Biden agenda when they're picking their next governor necessarily, 354 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: or or their next you know, local lawmaker. I I 355 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: spoke with Morgan Griffith last night, a Republican from southwestern Virginia. 356 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: This is all the way down the reddest of red 357 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: in Virginia, and he said, you know, not only would 358 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 1: that have not helped Terry mccaulliff win the governor, he 359 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 1: said that Terry would have lost by five more points 360 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: if they had passed the Biden agenda because people would 361 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 1: have been totally turned off by this multi trillion dollars 362 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: spending package. And I have to admit, in a state 363 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:15,879 Speaker 1: like Virginia, with the discourse that we saw on the 364 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 1: campaign trail, I think he might have been closer to 365 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 1: the truth. It's it's not the I can't imagine, it's 366 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: the spending that bothers people. It's the taxing that bothers people. 367 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: You got, yeah, right, listen, and when you tell people 368 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: doesn't cost anything, maybe that bothers people. I do think 369 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: there's something to the aura of Look, Democrats aren't getting 370 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: anything done. What's going on. There's nothing to show for 371 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: months and months and months of talking debate that that 372 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: could be a problem. But whether they were weighing in 373 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: on a specific bill that hasn't even been written yet, 374 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: that's a It's a little bit difficult to make those 375 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: connections here, Glenn. Youcan, though, did a good job talking 376 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: about prices, what you're paying at the grocery store, which 377 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: you're paying for gas. Those are the things that really 378 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: that really impact people. And then you say, oh, another 379 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 1: trillion dollars. My god, they've lost their minds in Washington. 380 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 1: And then you start connecting the dots a little bit 381 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: more that Yeah, Joe, you know, I I for better 382 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: or worse. I live in the great state of New Jersey, 383 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: and I can tell you here in this here in 384 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: New Jersey, there was almost no discussion amongst people that 385 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,959 Speaker 1: I talked to when we're talking about the race, about 386 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 1: the bills. It was just, you know, it's just you know, 387 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: it's kind of the left versus the right, whether it's 388 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 1: Trump on the right or not. But it's that divide 389 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: is so there and so pronounced. There had to be. 390 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 1: But there's swing voters though, who said, you know what, 391 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 1: I've had enough of Trump. It's to some people maybe 392 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: he was embarrassing or he went too far, he was offensive. 393 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,879 Speaker 1: But those people also, uh, they didn't necessarily want the 394 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 1: progressive um wing of the party to take over, and 395 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: they may feel that way. For example, Trump got got 396 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: rid of the salt deduction almost as a punishment right 397 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: to New Jersey and New York voters. And you would 398 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: have thought, all right, now, Trump's gone give us our 399 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: salt deduction back. But you've got Bernie Sanders and AOC 400 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: apparently running this issue. So what's what's the Democratic the 401 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: d n C. What are they thinking about? You think, 402 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 1: oh boy, I think that they're sticking with this this 403 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: so called conventional wisdom. Uh, the old c W would 404 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 1: they say, just pass something, show that it did something, 405 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: get get the get this thing done, get roads and bridges. 406 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: I mean, my god, we talked about reconciliation all day. 407 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: That infrastructure build that passed the set it months ago, 408 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: still has not passed the House. And uh, that actually 409 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 1: could go along. That's slightly different matter. That could go 410 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,120 Speaker 1: a long way because you start seeing people, Oh they're 411 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 1: they're they're they're getting jobs. They're picking up shovels. They 412 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 1: fix that bridge of my town. That's actually stuff you 413 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: can get your hands around. And I think that the 414 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,159 Speaker 1: d n C sees that as something important here. Uh, 415 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: if you talk to the r n C, however, and 416 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 1: you talk to the you know, the the guys on 417 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 1: Capitol Hill about that, Kevin McCarthy will tell you he 418 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: can turn sixty three seats this year based on what 419 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 1: happened the other night. Wow, Joe, thanks so much for 420 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: joining us. Always great to get your perspective. Joe Matthew 421 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 1: there with as Paul says, his finger on the pulse, 422 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:03,719 Speaker 1: So what's going on in d C. And you can 423 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 1: get more from him if you listen to Bloomberg Radio 424 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: at five pm. Joe Matthew, the host of sound On, 425 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,880 Speaker 1: thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 426 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,679 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever 427 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 428 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,199 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller three put on false Sweeney. I'm on 429 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always 430 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio