Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bett. We
Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
Speaker 1: show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise
Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman and I am
Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion Mike
Speaker 1: and padre My BFF professional Better Signment Hunter.
Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in Chad. What's going on?
Speaker 1: This morning? The FBI, the US Attorney from the Eastern
Speaker 1: District announced a sweeping set of indictments against many people,
Speaker 1: including members of three families of the Mafia, LaCOSA and Nostra,
Speaker 1: including Portland Trailblazers head coach Chauncey Billups, including Damon Jones,
Speaker 1: former Cleveland Cavalier and assistant coach Terry Rozier. Two separate indictments.
Speaker 1: I will set the stage here to indictment thirty four
Speaker 1: different people involved. One indictment is for illegal poker rooms
Speaker 1: and swindling unsuspecting players in those poker rooms. That's what
Speaker 1: Chauncey Billups is involved in and Damon Jones is involved in.
Speaker 1: The US attorney in the press conference referred to Chauncey
Speaker 1: Billups and Damon Jones as the face cards of the operation,
Speaker 1: meaning they were the famous people who brought in the rich,
Speaker 1: unsuspecting fish into the games who were then taken. And
Speaker 1: then another indictment in which they're overlapping people is the
Speaker 1: one in which Tera Rozier has been indicted for the
Speaker 1: sports betting sharing of information that also is tied to
Speaker 1: Johntay Porter, who famously was banned. This is involving player
Speaker 1: props and Terry Razier player props. Crazy story, definitely. You know,
Speaker 1: the stakes keep getting higher on the gambling scandals since legalization,
Speaker 1: and last a couple of years ago there was the
Speaker 1: Otani interpreter scandal. Now this is front page news. This
Speaker 1: has been blown up all morning since the arrest at
Speaker 1: six o'clock in the morning, both in Portland and in
Speaker 1: Orlando where Terry Razier was after the Heat game last night.
Speaker 1: He did not play last night, and now there was
Speaker 1: a press conference that was all over the news. Looks
Speaker 1: it's a weird thing. We do a show on betting.
Speaker 1: We have a good time. We talk about betting on
Speaker 1: the games, We talk about where the opportunities are. That's
Speaker 1: the primary focus of what we do. But you and
Speaker 1: I are also very much in this world. We know
Speaker 1: a lot about the poker rooms. We know a lot
Speaker 1: about what's happening in the sports betting space beyond what
Speaker 1: we talk about on the show. I'm in the middle
Speaker 1: of working on a book about this world of sports
Speaker 1: betting that will come out, you know in the next say,
Speaker 1: twelve to twenty four months. You obviously ad are professional better.
Speaker 1: There's going to be a lot of conversation about legalization
Speaker 1: being the cause and these scandals being the effect. I
Speaker 1: got a lot of thoughts on that, but let's break
Speaker 1: down the news for a second. You're seeing this, what
Speaker 1: are your thoughts?
Speaker 3: Sadly, never shocked, just because, like you said, I am
Speaker 3: in this world and we've talked all the time. I'm
Speaker 3: someone that I love poker, I love Texas hold them,
Speaker 3: and I play a lot of house games in the offseason.
Speaker 3: I do a lot of casino games, a lot of tournaments.
Speaker 3: But there's always gonna be house games, right. But you
Speaker 3: hear of these games with dirty tables and fixed games,
Speaker 3: and you might get away with it on one or
Speaker 3: two millionaires. Not all millionaires are dumb that look into it, right.
Speaker 3: We've all met guys who you're like, Okay, he was
Speaker 3: born into it, or he found a right niche.
Speaker 2: This guy's not that smart.
Speaker 3: Some guys are brilliant and they are incredibly smart with people,
Speaker 3: and they can see things that normal people can't see.
Speaker 2: That's how they made all their money.
Speaker 3: All it takes is one of them to get into
Speaker 3: that game and they can tell right away something's off,
Speaker 3: something's fixed. Then they go again and if the same
Speaker 3: thing happens again, they're gonna notice it again. So it's
Speaker 3: really about the names, right, It's huge names we all know.
Speaker 3: I mean Chauncey Billups. He's one of my favorite players ever.
Speaker 3: Like he played in Detroit Nuggets and then he came
Speaker 3: to Philly and I love them like I love Chauncey Bills.
Speaker 2: I think I have a Chauncey Billups Sixers Jersey. No joke.
Speaker 3: So sad because you know how much money this man
Speaker 3: has made in his career, and it wasn't enough. He
Speaker 3: wasn't Like when when you hear people doing stuff like this,
Speaker 3: they could say they did it for the money and
Speaker 3: their family, whatever they want to say.
Speaker 2: It's like Walter White and breaking Bad. You did it
Speaker 2: for you.
Speaker 3: You didn't do this for anything other than yourself and crazy,
Speaker 3: crazy story. Like you said, it's the tip of the
Speaker 3: iceberg a lot of times, right, So much more stuff
Speaker 3: is going to come out as it's unfold.
Speaker 2: So it's a really interesting story. I'm excited to follow.
Speaker 3: And you know, people like you said, they think it's
Speaker 3: bad the legalization of gamelin. This is why it's good
Speaker 3: because before this would be handled off the radar, this
Speaker 3: would not be handled in the public eye. I promise
Speaker 3: you that. So things are just changed now and it's
Speaker 3: a good thing. These guys should the light a day.
Speaker 3: And like you just said, all the laves it's going
Speaker 3: to affect. This must be a huge, multi million dollar operation,
Speaker 3: and like I said, it's it's gonna be really interesting
Speaker 3: these next couple of months, all the information that's going
Speaker 3: to come out.
Speaker 1: Some of the details from the press conference that the
Speaker 1: US Attorney and the FBI had this morning in New
Speaker 1: York were that the tables at these illegal poker games
Speaker 1: included X ray technology that allowed site individuals to see
Speaker 1: the face down cards of the players at the table
Speaker 1: and then relay that information to other people at the table.
Speaker 1: There were contact lenses and glasses that were able to
Speaker 1: read watermarks, on pre marked cards at the table. There
Speaker 1: were mini cameras inside the card trays that a lot
Speaker 1: of the players had at their table, so the cameras
Speaker 1: were able to read what cards people had and again
Speaker 1: relay all that to off site operators who were then
Speaker 1: able to share that with other people at the table.
Speaker 1: I know a lot about these card rooms, like I've
Speaker 1: spoken to a lot of professional poker players about it,
Speaker 1: and a lot of people who are playing for high
Speaker 1: stakes games. This is how a lot of professional poker players,
Speaker 1: not games like these that are fixed, but a lot
Speaker 1: of professional poker players even at the World Series of Poker,
Speaker 1: these are the games that are going on. These are
Speaker 1: the games where the cash is being traded, where you know,
Speaker 1: it's one million, two million, three million, ten million on
Speaker 1: the table at the World Series of Poker, because these
Speaker 1: games go on all night and that's where the real
Speaker 1: action is happening. And they've been at the center of
Speaker 1: this gambling controversy that started with Jean de Porter and
Speaker 1: so the marriage of these things, and it was also
Speaker 1: I think a part of the Otani stuff, the marriage
Speaker 1: of these things and how these things take place between
Speaker 1: just very wealthy people across the board is where I
Speaker 1: think sort of the real intriguing sort of narrative is
Speaker 1: taking place. Just like you're in these poker rooms. You
Speaker 1: like to play poker, you just said that, Like when
Speaker 1: you're inside there, what does it feel like?
Speaker 3: I mean, it's fun, honestly, It's all about how you
Speaker 3: viewed money though, like these people view money the same
Speaker 3: way I do. That It's just it's something to have
Speaker 3: fun with. It's not so much you know, like again,
Speaker 3: you can have rough nights. No one wants to lose money.
Speaker 3: But it's not like in Sopranos, right where the guys like, yeah,
Speaker 3: I got one hundred and fifty K, and I owe
Speaker 3: this this casino room. It doesn't really work that way, right,
Speaker 3: It's you're spoken for. You're not going into debt selling
Speaker 3: your business to play in these casino rooms.
Speaker 2: So that's what interesting part of this though.
Speaker 3: This is like way above my levels, Like I've played
Speaker 3: in some games I shouldn't have been in, and I
Speaker 3: literally play super tight and I'm literally just there to build.
Speaker 2: Relationships in the conversation, I honestly aim there.
Speaker 3: If I can get up ten k, great, If I
Speaker 3: lose ten k, okay, I'll walk away. But I'll never
Speaker 3: go all in unless I have the nuts, and guys
Speaker 3: in that room will know that. So if I do push,
Speaker 3: they almost always fold, So I can bluff myself into
Speaker 3: some nice spots. But I play super super tight in
Speaker 3: those games. There's guys who sit down and they will
Speaker 3: go all in every three or four hands. They just
Speaker 3: like the action and they're there for the drinks, the cigars,
Speaker 3: the fun.
Speaker 2: It's it's all different. Everyone's there for different reasons.
Speaker 3: So this one, like you said from the top, Chauncey Billups,
Speaker 3: if someone said you want to come to this pooker game,
Speaker 3: you can beat Chauncey Billups.
Speaker 2: I'm a sucker.
Speaker 3: I would have been there so him be them putting
Speaker 3: him out there and being like he was running this
Speaker 3: thing and he knew that he could get people in
Speaker 3: there because of who he was. I believe that right
Speaker 3: from the top. So yeah, again, American reporting people keep
Speaker 3: saying it's dying, Chad's it's not dead yet. It's not
Speaker 3: dead yet, and the stories are pretty incredible when they
Speaker 3: do get broken. So yeah, I don't know if it's
Speaker 3: gonna be Pablo Torrey finds out, but you know, that's
Speaker 3: the greatest fear I think at all sports media right
Speaker 3: now is you do not want to know if Pablo
Speaker 3: toy is looking into you. I would love a Poblo
Speaker 3: breakdown a show about this one, because, like we said,
Speaker 3: we're just getting the layers here.
Speaker 2: Man, you think it just stops at Terry Rosier.
Speaker 3: I mean, this tea might get really juicing in the
Speaker 3: NBA not I don't want to say it's the most
Speaker 3: corrupt league or whatever, but between the the owners, the players,
Speaker 3: no other leagues have these type of scandals right now.
Speaker 3: This is really really wild that every sport has their
Speaker 3: own little scandals. I hope this is where it ends
Speaker 3: for the.
Speaker 2: NBA because between what's going on the Clippers now what's
Speaker 2: going on with players in the league.
Speaker 3: They need this to stop. You need this to stop
Speaker 3: the NBA. This is such a bad look.
Speaker 1: Well look, the the player prop problem is the biggest
Speaker 1: challenge for the NBA. And Adam Silver was on Pat
Speaker 1: McAfee thirty six hours ago, forty eight hours ago talking
Speaker 1: about working with the operators to try to limit certain
Speaker 1: player prop markets, and I will tell you right now,
Speaker 1: I don't believe legalization is the cause of these issues.
Speaker 1: I think legalization is part of why we are learning
Speaker 1: more and more about these issues. There are so many
Speaker 1: people that are involved in the chain that have so
Speaker 1: much to lose financially. And I don't mean individuals, I
Speaker 1: mean huge corporations and these leagues. It is in their
Speaker 1: best interest as much as it is a bad look
Speaker 1: when this happens, to root out every single one of
Speaker 1: these instances, because you can't have bad actors, and there
Speaker 1: are always going to be bad actors. And we've talked
Speaker 1: about this on this show. Literally the National League was
Speaker 1: formed in something like eighteen seventy six. In eighteen seventy seven,
Speaker 1: there was a scandal about players who were fixing baseball games.
Speaker 1: It is going to happen. It is time immemorium. It
Speaker 1: is not going to stop people from betting. The amount
Speaker 1: of money that is wagered every year gets bigger and bigger.
Speaker 1: Only now we have a much better understanding of what
Speaker 1: that money is and where that money is going to realize.
Speaker 2: We're catching check because these are done through legal books.
Speaker 2: We're not talking offshore.
Speaker 1: Well that's what I mean.
Speaker 2: Really, that's why you need these legal books.
Speaker 3: Like Chad saying here, it's like without it, we wouldn't
Speaker 3: catch these people, maybe it'd all be offshore like it
Speaker 3: used to be, and there'd be no stories in the
Speaker 3: news like your naive if you think this is something
Speaker 3: new is what I think we're both saying, RIGHTO.
Speaker 1: Right, And but I don't want to turn this into
Speaker 1: like advocacy for sports betting, because we are both sort
Speaker 1: of shills in that regard. But I do think that
Speaker 1: back to the player props, that's the biggest challenge. You know,
Speaker 1: you mentioned a guy is making so much money, why
Speaker 1: would he do it while he's doing it for him?
Speaker 1: I don't know what Terror Razier's financial situation is. I
Speaker 1: don't know who he was doing this for, why he
Speaker 1: was doing it, what the situation was in any capacity.
Speaker 1: I do know that Terror Razier is in the last
Speaker 1: year of a four year, ninety six million dollar contract. Yeah, right,
Speaker 1: And so he's not Jante Porter. He's not the guy
Speaker 1: who's on a two way at the end of the bench,
Speaker 1: is bouncing around between the G League and the NBA
Speaker 1: and maybe fifty thousand dollars as a quick amount of
Speaker 1: cash means something to him. So we don't know what
Speaker 1: it is with Terry Razier. But the premise has always
Speaker 1: been that a lot of these leagues are protected from
Speaker 1: fixing scandals because the amount of money for the people
Speaker 1: who can impact the actual game is so high that
Speaker 1: it won't be worth it for them to get caught
Speaker 1: up in this. But the props change that. The props
Speaker 1: change everything, and I think specifically in the NBA more
Speaker 1: than any other league, it's harder for a running back
Speaker 1: to always be in control of his own destiny because
Speaker 1: he doesn't know how many times he's going to get
Speaker 1: the ball right. That's determined on the situation in the
Speaker 1: flow of the game. Same with baseball, it's really only
Speaker 1: controlled by the pitcher. And we've already seen in the
Speaker 1: case of the Guardians' pitchers who have been suspended under
Speaker 1: under investigation how that can be figured out. Because it
Speaker 1: is so egregious that there are monitoring agencies and the
Speaker 1: operators in the leagues that are working together say we've
Speaker 1: got some weird activity. We got to flag this. The NBA, anybody,
Speaker 1: any individual player, with all the markets that are available,
Speaker 1: as much as they are trying to limit the markets
Speaker 1: that are allowable, especially for end of bench players, that's
Speaker 1: an impossible scenario to police. That changes the argument about
Speaker 1: whether or not there is an amount of money that
Speaker 1: would keep people from fixing a game, because it's not
Speaker 1: about the game anymore. It's just about your individual performance.
Speaker 1: And even then, it's not about always doing badly. It's
Speaker 1: about just doing badly enough to make it look like
Speaker 1: it's not suspicious. That's the real and city is dangerous.
Speaker 1: Part of what we're talking about here is that prop market,
Speaker 1: especially for the NBA. I don't know. I don't know
Speaker 1: how they fix it.
Speaker 3: I don't know either, but they've been trying for years.
Speaker 3: I mean, let's face it, the NBA, this isn't new.
Speaker 3: We never talk about it, like the ref between the
Speaker 3: ref scandals, the player scandals. It's it's been there in
Speaker 3: this league for a long time. I mean, the greatest
Speaker 3: player in NBA history had a gambling scandal.
Speaker 2: So you know, they're in a really.
Speaker 3: Tough spot where whatever it is that nature that it
Speaker 3: goes handing in every sport has its degenerates. I mean,
Speaker 3: we had a guy on talking about Pete Rose, some
Speaker 3: amazing stories, but.
Speaker 2: It just feels like, as we're going along.
Speaker 3: Here chat, it's just of all the leagues I have
Speaker 3: the least amount of trust in right now, obviously air hockey,
Speaker 3: you know that whole scandal and all that stuff. Badminton,
Speaker 3: we're not talking about. We're talking about the major sports,
Speaker 3: NBA of the major sports right now it has My
Speaker 3: eyes are definitely fixed on it, and I have I
Speaker 3: just hope this is it. I hope this is the
Speaker 3: end of it, because it's just this could get really bad.
Speaker 3: Like we've talked about. We haven't really talked about, but
Speaker 3: it's it's coming pared to a lot of people that
Speaker 3: the NBA hit its peak with Lebron in Golden State
Speaker 3: against Steph Curry, right, that.
Speaker 2: Was the ratings galore.
Speaker 3: The MLB has a real opening here because it's like
Speaker 3: a romantic sadrenal. MB has had a nice re substance
Speaker 3: of coming back to being a major sport. It's biggest
Speaker 3: scandal with its biggest player. It looks like they avoided it,
Speaker 3: and it's I don't know about you, but like Otani,
Speaker 3: he's the greatest player I've ever seen in my lifetime.
Speaker 3: So it's like, I get why they found a way out.
Speaker 3: They move bridges to make that work, and like we
Speaker 3: always joke, he's one of us.
Speaker 2: Like it makes me love.
Speaker 3: Them even more knowing the guy's a gambler. But the
Speaker 3: based stuff, it's not funny, it's not cute. This is
Speaker 3: scary stuff. It's within its league with its big players.
Speaker 3: Like Chad just said, I didn't know Terry made a
Speaker 3: ninety million That's that's insane amount of money.
Speaker 1: Four year, ninety six million dollar deal.
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's I'm sure you're gonna get a ton
Speaker 3: of calls over the next week, you'll get more infun of.
Speaker 1: But as we said it right now is literally I
Speaker 1: just checked it. It's like NonStop texting right now from
Speaker 1: people in the industry, from people who are just waking
Speaker 1: up to this. Uh, they're truly astonished. They're blown away. Look,
Speaker 1: last I'm a massive NBA fan. I watched League Pass constantly.
Speaker 1: I was on lead Pass last night. I started with
Speaker 1: the Calves and the Knicks. Then I went over to
Speaker 1: the Bulls. I'm watching the Bulls and the Pistons and
Speaker 1: Adam Amine and Stacy King who are the Bulls play
Speaker 1: by play and color commentary. They're brilliant. I love them together.
Speaker 1: It's It's one of my favorite things is when the
Speaker 1: season starts, it's like it's I did see VJ. Edgecomb
Speaker 1: and dominate it and Tyrese Maxi go for forty. But
Speaker 1: and but here, here's my point is, Adam Amine is
Speaker 1: a brilliant play by play guy. And we've seen that season.
Speaker 1: He did that fifteen innings Mariner's game, he does NFL,
Speaker 1: he does the Bulls play by play. Last night they
Speaker 1: were playing the Pistons and they were talking about Ducan
Speaker 1: Robinson and Duncan Robinson has replaced as a three point
Speaker 1: threat Malik Beasley. Malik Beasley, who had a record setting
Speaker 1: year last year, had gotten a new contract from the
Speaker 1: Pistons and then he was part of a gambling investigation
Speaker 1: and that contract was pulled and he's still on the
Speaker 1: street because the investigation is still happening. And you know,
Speaker 1: Adam Amine was doing a brilliant job of explaining what
Speaker 1: it is and perfectly threading the needle, not being accusatory,
Speaker 1: not saying anything that was sort of a stretch about
Speaker 1: where the investigation is, but being specific that this was
Speaker 1: about prop betting, right, and Malik Beasley no joke. Thirty
Speaker 1: seconds after he's done an in game promo for the
Speaker 1: betting spot, answer of the Chicago Bulls in the game
Speaker 1: comes up all about live player props. You can be
Speaker 1: betting in the middle of that game. And Adam Amine,
Speaker 1: to his credit, did not skip a beat. He did
Speaker 1: not try to gloss over it. He acknowledged the irony.
Speaker 1: He noticed the He called out his producer. He's like,
Speaker 1: I can't believe you're doing this right now. It was brilliant.
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like that's us right now. There's
Speaker 1: a very serious thing happening, and we obviously have to
Speaker 1: talk about it. And you and I have both been
Speaker 1: very lucky and very successful in this particular industry for many,
Speaker 1: many years, both with the show and way beyond this show,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna have a good time talking about these
Speaker 1: NFL games, but it's hard not to acknowledge the serious
Speaker 1: nature of what's happening and the ramifications on the industry.
Speaker 1: So that's why we're going to keep talking about it
Speaker 1: and keep filing up on what's happening with this investigation.
Speaker 1: It's crazy. Chauncey Billups terror ra Zero arrested by the
Speaker 1: FBI as part of the legal gambling investigations. Two days
Speaker 1: ago or yesterday, the NCBULA passed the law allowing college
Speaker 1: athletes to brett to bet on pro Sports with one
Speaker 1: of the guys who was on the committee that allowed
Speaker 1: it basically saying, we got to acknowledge the universe we
Speaker 1: live in and this is happening, which is how we
Speaker 1: ended up with legalized betting to begin with. And the
Speaker 1: NHL signed deals with multiple prediction market platforms which have
Speaker 1: zero regulation. So here's where we are. People are going
Speaker 1: to say there needs to be regulation. People are going
Speaker 1: to sign deals with prediction markets who want to pay
Speaker 1: them a boatload of money that have no regulation. This
Speaker 1: is the state the sports betting world that we live in.
Speaker 1: The NFL chugs on and we're going to have to
Speaker 1: figure out how we are telling our audience and what
Speaker 1: we like in an upcoming weekend that for our Thursday,
Speaker 1: Week eight episode, we need to narrow down the options
Speaker 1: on our questifying five picks that we can agree on.
Speaker 1: And I think it's hard because meanwhile, all this head twisting,
Speaker 1: mind bending, the Pandora's box is wide freaking open. News
Speaker 1: is happening. And this may be the strangest week for
Speaker 1: betting so far this NFL season because we've got the
Speaker 1: buy to get in, so we don't have a ton
Speaker 1: of games, and the games that are being played. There's
Speaker 1: been like half point movements at the most on the
Speaker 1: games being played except for one of them. The Chiefs
Speaker 1: have moved two points from ten and a half to
Speaker 1: twelve and a half against the Washington Commanders off of
Speaker 1: the confirmation of Jade Daniels. So, man, you know reminder
Speaker 1: subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. It
Speaker 1: all sounds silly, ah, Listen every week, Simon. Every week
Speaker 1: we give out our picks, and every single week your
Speaker 1: fellow pro gamblers call to yell at you or compliment
Speaker 1: you about the conversations we're having. We're having because we
Speaker 1: know the wise guys are paying attention. It's time to
Speaker 1: summarize those opinions. It's time for sharp calls.
Speaker 3: Hal to answer this phone, all right, rain range, telephone range.
Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe want you do man?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And interesting week. I know you didn't love it.
Speaker 2: I'm on the other side.
Speaker 3: I love these kind of weeks, Like there just feels
Speaker 3: like it's people view it AS's gonna be a boring
Speaker 3: by the book type of week, And all I can
Speaker 3: just see is there's there could be a lot of
Speaker 3: madness and a lot of teams that need this week
Speaker 3: to get right and when we talked about I still
Speaker 3: love the Panthers, but I'm surprised there are some real
Speaker 3: smart pros coming in on that Bill's side, and I'll
Speaker 3: read some stats, some trends. I still think people are
Speaker 3: overlooking on this Panthers team. But it seems like the
Speaker 3: pros I talk to want to fade anytime they can.
Speaker 3: And Andy Dolton start, they just think he is absolutely finished.
Speaker 3: No idea how he's still in this league with a job.
Speaker 3: So that's a game we'll break down. But I can
Speaker 3: tell you I know some really smart money on the Bills,
Speaker 3: and they'll end up in our money one round Robin.
Speaker 3: I'm not too upset about that now, knowing there's so
Speaker 3: much love there. It's actually a great spot for Josh
Speaker 3: Allen to win out right the Bears. Some real smart
Speaker 3: pros on the Bears here as wow. Yeah, And it's
Speaker 3: they just are not buying Lamar's right, And they're also
Speaker 3: not buying this Ravens team. They don't think it matters
Speaker 3: they're getting all these guys back healthy, that this team
Speaker 3: is just not as good as people perceive.
Speaker 2: I still think they're.
Speaker 3: Overlooking how hard of a schedule with this team had like, yeah,
Speaker 3: they lost the Lions at home, they lost to the
Speaker 3: Eagles at home.
Speaker 2: That might be the two of the best teams the NFC.
Speaker 3: Like I just I think the Raimis have just had
Speaker 3: a really brutal start to the year and professionals are
Speaker 3: still holding against them and they just are a namer
Speaker 3: With this Bears team, who have is a four straight covers,
Speaker 3: they might have like they just been cashing for them.
Speaker 2: They love them.
Speaker 3: It's a Rams team that can't stop the run going
Speaker 3: against a really really well run team in the Bears
Speaker 3: who had running the ball. So interesting game. We'll have
Speaker 3: to break down some more. Got a lot of love
Speaker 3: for my Houston picked but I knew that was gonna
Speaker 3: be the pro side and we'll get into that one.
Speaker 3: It's just historically a horrible spot for the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: They tend to lose those type of games.
Speaker 2: The Jets. Tons of love for the Jets.
Speaker 3: Love that we had on the Jets money line, but
Speaker 3: like we joked, not a shocker every week.
Speaker 2: The pros are gonna bet them.
Speaker 3: Got a bunch of calls about the Giants, the pros
Speaker 3: they're gonna bet the Giants every week. Not shocked at all.
Speaker 3: It's it's a money maker for them. So Chat was
Speaker 3: spot on about his call about the Saints. He said,
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be a team that pros are enamored with.
Speaker 3: We are like every probably talk to. They're in the
Speaker 3: same boat as me. But again, I think it's a
Speaker 3: game we'll get into more about why we like them.
Speaker 3: And yeah, for sure, surprisingly has not been good for
Speaker 3: the Saints to be at home. I couldn't believe that
Speaker 3: diving into their record at home, they just there is
Speaker 3: Like you said, you're right, there is no true home
Speaker 3: field advantage for this Saints team like there used to be.
Speaker 2: And the last two two games, we love.
Speaker 3: Pros love Denver, The pros love the Steelers. I told
Speaker 3: you there are some pros on Green Bay. It's not
Speaker 3: as much as I thought it was going to be
Speaker 3: earlier in the week. I think their early love didn't
Speaker 3: make sense. But the more pros I talked, it seems
Speaker 3: like the more they're on Pittsburgh and that that Dallas
Speaker 3: game does have some pros on it, but it's very,
Speaker 3: very more so the public on the Cowboys, and it's
Speaker 3: the pros for the most part on that Denver side.
Speaker 2: So a lot of games that go through I know,
Speaker 2: like Chad said, there's three bye weeks. Surprisingly amount of
Speaker 2: love for.
Speaker 3: The favorites this week from some professional I've talked to you.
Speaker 3: So yeah, very interesting week for this lineup.
Speaker 1: All right, well let's get into it, and let's start
Speaker 1: right away with Chicago. At Baltimore that number was at
Speaker 1: six and a half. It is down to six at
Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet. I thought by now it would have
Speaker 1: gone in the other direction, but simon, the Baltimore Ravens
Speaker 1: are going to be our balls better the week presented
Speaker 1: by hard Rock Bet.
Speaker 2: You know what it takes, brass balls.
Speaker 1: We think today is crazy with news yesterday. The first
Speaker 1: text I see in the morning is from a buddy
Speaker 1: in the Chicago text group that sent it overnight a
Speaker 1: video of Lamar Jackson allegedly at a late night hot
Speaker 1: food truck in Baltimore, ordering loads and loads of food, food,
Speaker 1: not looking like he's connected to the conscious world. And
Speaker 1: because you know of the world we live in today,
Speaker 1: I immediately thought, well, this is weird, and of course
Speaker 1: by the end of the day Lamar had said that
Speaker 1: wasn't true. It was an AI video and you know, like,
Speaker 1: I don't know if that had an impact on the
Speaker 1: move at all. But meanwhile, he did not practice yesterday
Speaker 1: and it was limited in practice. It was a walk through.
Speaker 1: He was taking the third string snaps. And I got
Speaker 1: a text in the middle of the day from my
Speaker 1: buddy Mark Silverman, who's better known as Sylvie. He hosts
Speaker 1: the very popular show Wattle and Sylvie on ESPN Radio
Speaker 1: in Chicago, and ask me what the line would be
Speaker 1: if Lamar wasn't playing, And it hadn't occurred to me
Speaker 1: that he wouldn't be playing. So that's when I went
Speaker 1: to check, like what's happening with the practice reports and
Speaker 1: saw I think, if Lamar Jackson's not playing, it's pick
Speaker 1: maybe the Bears are minus one.
Speaker 2: Did you see what Houston did to the Ravens two
Speaker 2: weeks ago?
Speaker 1: I did.
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed by Houston team that's we can both agree,
Speaker 3: not the greatest team in the world.
Speaker 2: They beat them by like thirty points. I mean, what
Speaker 2: are we doing here?
Speaker 1: Like, well, I'm assuming that the Ravens are going to
Speaker 1: be significantly more healthy on defense, and as they did
Speaker 1: last year in the second half of the year, they
Speaker 1: gave Zach Orr tremendous amount of help to figure out
Speaker 1: how to fix that freaking defense, and they got better
Speaker 1: at it. I'm banking on a little bit of press
Speaker 1: president here in a little bit of health. But here's
Speaker 1: the bigger question. Lamar is playing the lines down to six.
Speaker 1: We've made it our brass Balls bet of the week.
Speaker 1: Here's a stat from our friend John Ing, who tweeted
Speaker 1: this yesterday. You ready, this is good for us, put
Speaker 1: us back together. Since two thousand and three, teams that
Speaker 1: have won twenty percent or fewer of their games. So
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens and our favorites against an opponent with
Speaker 1: a winning record fifty six percent against the spread. I
Speaker 1: just think this is a great spot for the Ravens
Speaker 1: if Lamar is playing and he's healthy, and you know,
Speaker 1: I think we're hoping that he is. That's why we
Speaker 1: made it the brass Balls. The brass balls part here
Speaker 1: is betting on the fact that Lamar is going to
Speaker 1: be playing and thinking we're getting the Ravens at less
Speaker 1: than a touchdown because I do think they'll fix some
Speaker 1: of the issues on defense. I think they've gotten healthier
Speaker 1: and I think that the Bears defense is going to
Speaker 1: have real issues against this rushing offense.
Speaker 2: You need to give out the best part of that
Speaker 2: stat as a favorite.
Speaker 3: So that exact team you just talked about, a team
Speaker 3: with twenty percent fewer wins as a favorite of three
Speaker 3: points or more in this spot, those teams thirty and four,
Speaker 3: team sixty eight against the spread.
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. I forgot that. I mean, I
Speaker 1: forget that.
Speaker 2: It's it's a raven spot. You know, historically.
Speaker 3: We've seen after Bie weeks hardball has done well. I
Speaker 3: think he's ten and seven ats after his bie a week,
Speaker 3: and you know, we're fading a Bears team that they're
Speaker 3: on our role right now. Like we were talking, I
Speaker 3: don't know if that was you know, on the shore
Speaker 3: before the show, but they're four they've covered.
Speaker 2: In one four straight games. Yeah, like this is normally
Speaker 2: a team we try to avoid because they are so high.
Speaker 3: Right now, they're playing so well and the books keep
Speaker 3: undervaluing them and the pros are joining. I mean, like
Speaker 3: you just said, this is down to six a hard
Speaker 3: rock because there is so much unknown about what's what's
Speaker 3: up a little more, But I am banking on it
Speaker 3: all being smoke screens and him being a total difference
Speaker 3: maker of this team, even if he is missing.
Speaker 2: That half a step.
Speaker 3: Him pushing the ball downfield like they got Isaiah likely
Speaker 3: back as well, which I think is gonna be huge
Speaker 3: for them. But that's what's been last Like Cooper Rush
Speaker 3: can't put the ball downfield and there's no threat to run,
Speaker 3: so Derek Henry's just had a stack box and they've
Speaker 3: been able to just put one on one on the outside.
Speaker 3: So well, Mark changes everything. There's a reason every year
Speaker 3: is then in it for MVP me and you are
Speaker 3: simply betting on unknown here, which is scary.
Speaker 2: Well, we have to take the value.
Speaker 3: This is a great number, a great line for a
Speaker 3: Ravens team that everything we've seen, they should be healthy
Speaker 3: in a get right spot here against the Bears, and
Speaker 3: like we said, the trends that love this spot as
Speaker 3: well for this this Ravens team.
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens minus six at hard Rock Bet right now.
Speaker 1: Unfortunately I bet him at six and a half, but
Speaker 1: we are on them. We are on the Ravens. That
Speaker 1: is our brass Balls Better of the Week sponsored by
Speaker 1: hard Rep Bet. I have the New York Giants plus
Speaker 1: seven and a half at Philly they are actually three touchdown,
Speaker 1: four touchdown games that I thought about putting in here.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the Carolina Panthers are seven and a half
Speaker 1: at the bill with the hosting the Bills. Miami is
Speaker 1: seven and a half at Atlanta. Cleveland is seven at
Speaker 1: New England. You brought up the Panthers in Sharp Calls.
Speaker 1: I went with this one because it feels like the
Speaker 1: best combination of pointspread value, getting the hook, situational value
Speaker 1: because it's the divisional game, and matchup value. I don't
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on any of them anymore, to
Speaker 1: be honest, so I would like a little bit of clarity.
Speaker 2: What do you mean, like, why are the pros betting
Speaker 2: the Giants? No?
Speaker 1: No, no, no. I mean like, if we were to
Speaker 1: have to include one of these four in our final five,
Speaker 1: I lean to the Giants. I think I'm off the
Speaker 1: Panthers for the same reason the wise guys that you
Speaker 1: said in the Sharp Calls, and we hadn't discussed this.
Speaker 1: I just don't trust Andy Dalton. This is a really
Speaker 1: good running team, and I think it's a really good
Speaker 1: running team because of the things Bryce Young can do
Speaker 1: in the pocket and Andy Young, Andy Dalt and can't
Speaker 1: do those things, so and a little bit concerned that
Speaker 1: the Bills are getting some key players back or haven't
Speaker 1: been with them all season on the defensive side of
Speaker 1: the ball who could help with the rush. So I
Speaker 1: walked away from that one, and I think I'm most
Speaker 1: leaning into the Giants at seven and a half.
Speaker 3: Okay, I got some good stats for that Bill's game.
Speaker 3: We can talk about this Giants game for now. I
Speaker 3: probably come around more to the Giants side here and
Speaker 3: why guys are pitching it. I'm finally just simply having
Speaker 3: the Eagles and my money line round Robin and I
Speaker 3: can eat that seven and just get a seven and
Speaker 3: a half by one of the Giants. You're right, it's
Speaker 3: probably still too inflative of a number in a matchup
Speaker 3: that the Eagles just haven't proven they can close teams out.
Speaker 2: They haven't played two good halfs of football this year.
Speaker 3: They just it's been there Achilles Hill all season, no doubt.
Speaker 3: Could they beat this Giants team by twenty Yes, this
Speaker 3: is a Giants team that lost their number one receiver,
Speaker 3: and as dominant as their power shruss has been, you
Speaker 3: would think the Eagles with that offensive line to be
Speaker 3: able to get some stops against those guys, but it
Speaker 3: egles Line's hurt, like we've talked about that. Also, Line
Speaker 3: is just injured. Yeah, the main reason Saquon can't get going.
Speaker 3: So I agree Giants and of all those guys, I
Speaker 3: agree with you, that's probably the best one.
Speaker 2: But it's also just be cautious.
Speaker 3: It's like, it's, uh, this Giants team, we saw what
Speaker 3: can happen with them, right like in that Saints game,
Speaker 3: what was a five straight turnovers? We know we're been into.
Speaker 3: We've been into a rookie quarterback on the road in
Speaker 3: a divisional game with an offense that he's making it work.
Speaker 3: But like we said, they're they're just they're not real
Speaker 3: weapons on the outside. So yeah, there's there is some
Speaker 3: hesitation for me. But game wide value.
Speaker 1: Of those four games that I mentioned that are all
Speaker 1: seven to seven and a half, Giants, Eagles, Bill's Panthers,
Speaker 1: Brown's New England, and Miami at Atlanta, if we had
Speaker 1: to put one of those in, I'm worried. We're like,
Speaker 1: I think we have four games we love and I
Speaker 1: think we're struggling to find a fifth of those four games.
Speaker 1: Would you put any of those in?
Speaker 3: I mean, I like, like I talk of the Patriots
Speaker 3: is a horrible spot. I having a crazy stat about
Speaker 3: that game too. It's the trap of traps. I still
Speaker 3: like the Patriots. I just I can't find I can't
Speaker 3: find the points for the rounds. So that's a game
Speaker 3: we're definitely gonna put in and lose, no doubt about Patriots.
Speaker 1: But for the record, I haven't bet any of these
Speaker 1: games yet.
Speaker 2: So if we want to take your renny, you want
Speaker 2: to give you my stat for that Panthers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, give it to me. Yeah.
Speaker 3: It's what we've been talking about at nauseum about these
Speaker 3: home dogs early in the year. When it crosses seven,
Speaker 3: it's you can say it's lazy, and we just keep
Speaker 3: cashing it.
Speaker 2: It keeps hitting.
Speaker 3: It's just it is what it is with the trend,
Speaker 3: and it's all about the spot where these home teams
Speaker 3: are under valued. There's a road favorite like the Bills
Speaker 3: that are being priced like there were last year. Now
Speaker 3: let's just dive into the trend. So in the first
Speaker 3: nine games of the year, Okay, what are we in chat?
Speaker 2: Is Week eight?
Speaker 3: Yes, they fit this home teams seven plus points seven
Speaker 3: points or more, forty and eleven against the spread at home.
Speaker 3: So we've hit this a bunch of times already this season.
Speaker 3: It's worked for us. We did the Giants. What was
Speaker 3: that two weeks ago against the Eagles on that Thursday game?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Was that?
Speaker 3: No, I don't know if the Bengals were home. Was
Speaker 3: that Bengals game in Green Bay? I forget with Flacco,
Speaker 3: but they were like a ten point dog.
Speaker 1: That might have been the Bengals game was I can't remember.
Speaker 3: I think it was the only time we've lost this
Speaker 3: bet is with Tennessee. So that's how good it's been
Speaker 3: where we bet these bad teams. It comes through now.
Speaker 3: I looked in these stats Josh Josh Allen after a
Speaker 3: bye week in his career eight and no up, So
Speaker 3: this is a no brainer going to be in our
Speaker 3: money on round robin all the auto spot for Alan. Historically,
Speaker 3: he's performed really well in these type of matchups, and
Speaker 3: I thought it was interesting the stat from our guys
Speaker 3: at bet Labs, and this also includes our Broncos. Panthers
Speaker 3: and Broncos both won three straight games by seven points
Speaker 3: or less over the last decade. Teams that fit that
Speaker 3: description thirty and forty six against the spreads of forty percent. Okay,
Speaker 3: not egregious, but when they're listed as an underdog, which
Speaker 3: our Panthers are here, they are ten and twenty six
Speaker 3: straight up, twelve twenty three and one against the spread.
Speaker 2: So that's bad exactly.
Speaker 1: Those are both bad things for.
Speaker 3: Us, well, mainly for the Panthers, a little bit for
Speaker 3: the Broncos, but really for the Panthers. Where it's like,
Speaker 3: I've been trying to find ways for me to stay
Speaker 3: away from this one, and like anything, any.
Speaker 2: Lazy static I had a buddy sent me a stat.
Speaker 2: It was like, yeah, the Bills.
Speaker 3: Franchise history three you o spreading straight up against this
Speaker 3: Panthers team. Again, useless stat, but I love it because
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, maybe I can avoid this game. So,
Speaker 3: like you said, Bills are getting a bunch of guys
Speaker 3: back healthy.
Speaker 2: I was going to all to play this one.
Speaker 3: But Andy Dalton one in five ats is a backup
Speaker 3: coming in and being a starter is one win one
Speaker 3: cover Chad probably against the Raiders they like won by
Speaker 3: like twenty points on this horrible Panthers team.
Speaker 2: Then he lost four straight.
Speaker 1: So that's right.
Speaker 3: I'm glad we can avoid this one. Uh, We'll have
Speaker 3: the Bills and our money line around Robin It maybe
Speaker 3: throwing a couple of teasers, but yeah, this is uh
Speaker 3: I thought was a panther spot. Thought the trends liked
Speaker 3: it more I read into it. It's it's it's become
Speaker 3: more of a bill spot.
Speaker 1: Let's let's talk about a game that we know we're
Speaker 1: gonna like San Francisco at Houston. Houston is a one
Speaker 1: point favorite at hard Rock bat. This was Simon says.
Speaker 1: I hope people got it because of a lot of
Speaker 1: other places. It's moved to one and a half and
Speaker 1: the Niners had even more injuries on defense on Sunday.
Speaker 1: On Sunday and brutal. I think they're having a really
Speaker 1: hard time getting pressure without Bosa and that has been
Speaker 1: the biggest prop for CJ. Stroud. We saw a lot
Speaker 1: of that against the Seahawks. So I'm feeling more and
Speaker 1: more comfortable, even though we've got a flipped line here
Speaker 1: just for a moment on the Texans, and as you
Speaker 1: mentioned in sharp Calls, so give me your take on
Speaker 1: why we're still feel uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: I don't think you but this is something real crazy there.
Speaker 2: H Yeah.
Speaker 1: For so I'm walking away well.
Speaker 2: It's always funny.
Speaker 3: Like I'm out about and I ran into a couple
Speaker 3: of buddies who do listen to our show, and they're like, like, dude,
Speaker 3: are you the sucker for taking a two and four
Speaker 3: Houston team against a five or two Foreigners team in
Speaker 3: their favorite Like isn't this an easy bet on the
Speaker 3: fort I'm like, when you say something like that to me,
Speaker 3: makes me be more confident on Houston where it's like
Speaker 3: I'm hoping more people think like he is, where they're
Speaker 3: overlooking a lot of underlying stuff with his Foreigners team,
Speaker 3: and like you said, the injuries are the biggest one.
Speaker 3: But to me, it's the trends Shanahan, whatever it is
Speaker 3: he's moving in this era that he's his teams just
Speaker 3: don't get up for games after wins since twenty twenty three.
Speaker 3: So like late December twenty twenty three, forty nine ers
Speaker 3: one and thirteen against the spread after a straight up win,
Speaker 3: and they're failing to cover those spreads by seven and
Speaker 3: a half points.
Speaker 2: So that's that's not just a.
Speaker 3: Little little bit of data that's over two years now,
Speaker 3: Like twenty twenty three December, that was a long time ago,
Speaker 3: just a different team after these wins in the sense
Speaker 3: that they just don't cover. Like the fact that they
Speaker 3: get over valued by the general public after wins just
Speaker 3: shows that's happening time and time again in the market.
Speaker 3: So I really like that stat for Houston, and I
Speaker 3: immediately thought to myself, Okay, well, let's dive into what
Speaker 3: Chad talked about, right the defense. How are they been
Speaker 3: and how how's the fortyin ers offense against really good defenses?
Speaker 3: And you know, their last nine games against defenses again,
Speaker 3: this is a Shanan stat again, defense that allowed seventeen
Speaker 3: points or less per game, which is that's the Houston's
Speaker 3: bread and butter right now.
Speaker 2: They're a great defensive team.
Speaker 3: Shane hands one to eight against the spread on the
Speaker 3: road or neutral sites since twenty twenty two. He's actually
Speaker 3: lost five straight in this exact spot. So already kind
Speaker 3: of loved Houston here because what Chad talked about, there's
Speaker 3: a ton of injuries this forign ires team, and I
Speaker 3: felt like this was a get right spot for Houston
Speaker 3: that just got embarrassed on a short week. This is
Speaker 3: kind of the perfect recipe of them to get that
Speaker 3: taste out of their mouth. Move on to the next week,
Speaker 3: and this Foreign hours team now with all the unknown
Speaker 3: of Purty and a bank dub mac Jones, and we
Speaker 3: still we don't know who the quarterback is for this week.
Speaker 3: I just think there's so much going on now, this
Speaker 3: Foreign Inners team them getting to be them being five
Speaker 3: and three with all they've gone through, that makes more
Speaker 3: sense than this Houston team totally laying another egg at
Speaker 3: home here and the forty andres moved to six and two.
Speaker 3: This feels like a bad spot plus four and I
Speaker 3: ers team. On the flip side, Houston their defense, this
Speaker 3: should be a great match for them in the sense
Speaker 3: that they have two limited quarterbacks. They have two really
Speaker 3: good ed rushers on their team, and like we said
Speaker 3: that that defense they put them in the spot to
Speaker 3: win against the Seahawks. The CJ just screwed us over
Speaker 3: and chat talked about it. CJ has no pass rush fear.
Speaker 3: That tends to be when he shines. So I'm glad
Speaker 3: you've come around this texta team. I know it feels gross.
Speaker 3: I get one on Tuesday. You were like, I hate this,
Speaker 3: but it just feels like it's a number you have
Speaker 3: to play in a spot we have to bet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's you know, like none of us
Speaker 1: are immune in recency bias and so tough. It takes
Speaker 1: a minute. It takes a minute, especially four hours, you know,
Speaker 1: I know it's really hard. Yeah, speaking really hard. New
Speaker 1: York Jets plus six and a half at Cincinnati. I've
Speaker 1: been trying to avoid this one. I mean, like, we're
Speaker 1: gonna have to find five bests that we love. And
Speaker 1: it makes no sense that the Bengals are six and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites over anyone. If we know Tyrad
Speaker 1: Taylor is starting on Sunday and we still have forty
Speaker 1: eight hours to truly understand if he is, it feels
Speaker 1: like it might have to make it into one of
Speaker 1: our favorites. Five weeks of the year, the Jets played
Speaker 1: struggling or bad defenses. In the Steelers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bucks,
Speaker 1: and Bills average twenty three points a game. The Bengals
Speaker 1: have allowed fewer than twenty seven points once this season.
Speaker 1: It is just a dreadful, dreadful, dreadful defense. It's the
Speaker 1: kind of defense that might be Aaron Aaron Glenn and
Speaker 1: Jets proof, you know what I mean. And so.
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm not gonna waste people's time on it.
Speaker 3: But if if you want to, just if you don't
Speaker 3: like any of our other bets and you were like,
Speaker 3: what's the grossest bet that I have to bet this week?
Speaker 3: Because it's a long term winner. This Jets is a
Speaker 3: long term winner. I know doesn't feel like it, but
Speaker 3: it's a unique spot. It's I mean, there's tons of stats,
Speaker 3: like teams that are owned for like they are and
Speaker 3: they go on the road, they tend to cover these
Speaker 3: exact games. It's only the only other team owned four
Speaker 3: this year that's gone on the road and covered was
Speaker 3: the Titans. The Titans did it, So that's what I mean, Like,
Speaker 3: it's usually a spot for these teams. So I mean
Speaker 3: the Titans could do it. Goddamn Jets, you gotta do
Speaker 3: it as well.
Speaker 2: But I'm with you.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to force this into our contest. I'm
Speaker 3: not gonna make people bet this, but yes, I will
Speaker 3: be on the Jets. We will put them on money
Speaker 3: line round robin and yeah, I hate it, two people,
Speaker 3: that's gross.
Speaker 1: We're just gonna do it where it's just I feel
Speaker 1: like it's happening. I feel like we can't avoid it.
Speaker 1: I feel like it's the beacon that is drawing us
Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay at New Orleans. You mentioned this in
Speaker 1: sharp Calls that number is down to three and a
Speaker 1: half at hard Rock beat and half. So's it's gone
Speaker 1: down two full points now. And wow, look you mentioned
Speaker 1: Baker is a little bit banged up. We know Mike
Speaker 1: Evans is out Godwin a Mecca Buca was not at
Speaker 1: full speed in that game the other night. I just
Speaker 1: don't trust the Saints. I feel like everyone is trying
Speaker 1: to force the Saints down my throat, like we have
Speaker 1: to be betting on the Saints and they're a wise
Speaker 1: guy team, and like I hear it all. Spencer isn't
Speaker 1: as bad as a record, and he's really good against pressure,
Speaker 1: and he hasn't made turnover worthy plays. They're really unlucky.
Speaker 1: I hear it all. And like we see the imbalance
Speaker 1: between the bets and the money. The Bucks are getting
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the bets and the Saints are getting
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the money. Like it is one the
Speaker 1: sharp side the Saints. We've seen the activity. We've seen
Speaker 1: the number move huge reverse line movement, meaning that the
Speaker 1: bets are coming in on the box and the money
Speaker 1: and the line is moving in the direction of the Saints. Fishy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, again, it doesn't mean it's the right side just
Speaker 2: because the pros are on it. But it's like I said,
Speaker 2: you should have grabbed the four and after to grab
Speaker 2: the five and a half. Yes, that was going to
Speaker 2: be the pro side, just because it's.
Speaker 3: A number that is inflated, and just because of the injuries,
Speaker 3: like you Chad said it, God no, Godwin, no Mike Evans,
Speaker 3: no Bucky Irving, like Meccha Buka is not full strength.
Speaker 3: That's a big deal. Like those things do matter. The
Speaker 3: thing you can hang your head on. It's it's Baker
Speaker 3: versus Spencer rat and rather and the Saints team. They
Speaker 3: have not been good at home, Like even this year,
Speaker 3: they have not really been covered. You know, I thought
Speaker 3: they played well at home. Surprisingly they have not been
Speaker 3: covering at home. So you're right, probably overvalued by professionals.
Speaker 3: I talked a little bit about it, like how weird
Speaker 3: of this Bucks team is like minus one point differential,
Speaker 3: and Evan Admers had an amazing stat about it. Basically,
Speaker 3: they're the first team since twenty twenty two to be
Speaker 3: eight games in with a winning percentage like that and
Speaker 3: a negative point differential the other two teams where the
Speaker 3: Browns and the Bills, neither of them end up covering
Speaker 3: in this exact spot in this week, because it's like
Speaker 3: it's just simply a team that plays close under overvalued
Speaker 3: by the market. That makes sense Baker's career. I've talked
Speaker 3: about it, like them as a dog. Always feel better
Speaker 3: taking Baker as a dog. Yeah, really hate taking Baker
Speaker 3: as a favorite, let alone a favorite against the visional opponents.
Speaker 3: In his career, he's played twenty one games against the
Speaker 3: opponents as a favorite. He is seven and fourteen against
Speaker 3: the spread. So since he's been drafted, of the eighty
Speaker 3: two starters in the league, he is the worst win
Speaker 3: percentage against divisional foes as a favorite. So just understand
Speaker 3: what you're betting in two year. If you are taking
Speaker 3: the buck side, it's not a good number. It's not
Speaker 3: a good side. Like Chad saying, this Saints team, no
Speaker 3: one's gonna feel good betting them, right, they have not
Speaker 3: Probably You're probably right. They do not deserve to be
Speaker 3: getting this much line movement. It is now down to
Speaker 3: three and a half at hard Rock. I'm not going
Speaker 3: to force that in like to me four and a half,
Speaker 3: five and a half. I felt confident there. I won't
Speaker 3: chase this number.
Speaker 2: But I still think if you want to bet this,
Speaker 2: I don't think it's moved enough. I have it at three.
Speaker 3: You're still getting a good number technically on this this
Speaker 3: Saints team, but I need every point. I need every
Speaker 3: point if I'm gonna bet Spencer Rattler. And it was
Speaker 3: the same reason last week I didn't force them in
Speaker 3: with us against that Bears team because it's like it's
Speaker 3: it was Spencer Ratler outdoors in the elements. I'm just
Speaker 3: not gonna get there.
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's not great for Baker and make
Speaker 2: a sure career with the books as a favorite on
Speaker 2: the road.
Speaker 3: He's four and five against the spread, So it's it's
Speaker 3: not a good bigger spot. That's what I'm trying to
Speaker 3: get people understanding. You just don't don't force us one
Speaker 3: in this week. We said it's a short week, not
Speaker 3: many options. Either play the Saints or don't play this
Speaker 3: number at all.
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Speaker 2: Do you want to doubt that Patriots Browns game?
Speaker 1: Or No, I don't know what to do with it
Speaker 1: because it feels like the spot where we should be
Speaker 1: completely walking away if we know better from from the Browns,
Speaker 1: because it's not where they are. It's like we found
Speaker 1: a winning formula.
Speaker 2: No, No, I'm on New England, aren't you on New England?
Speaker 3: With me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. So I am on New England.
Speaker 1: I don't know how the Browns are getting any points.
Speaker 1: Like Dylan Garabidel is not an NFL quarterback. That's it.
Speaker 3: I saw this amazing statu. It goes to the Patriots
Speaker 3: and the Bears, and it's basically about these teams in
Speaker 3: these four plus game ats win streaks like straight up
Speaker 3: and against the spread. So those teams that didn't This
Speaker 3: is again Evan Abrams amazing stat These are those the
Speaker 3: exact teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and
Speaker 3: now they're on four plus game winning streaks straight up
Speaker 3: and against the spread, and this exact spot they are
Speaker 3: fourteen twenty six and one against the spread. Since twenty
Speaker 3: two twenty two, they are one in fourteen against the
Speaker 3: spread in the spot. So it is like, I know
Speaker 3: exactly we're walking into betting this Patriots team.
Speaker 1: We're stepping into it, and like to be clear, so
Speaker 1: like I shouldn't say I bet it. I have not
Speaker 1: other than the Panthers.
Speaker 2: I took that six and they were six and a half.
Speaker 2: A couple of books I took you.
Speaker 1: That I like, I have not bet the Falcons. I
Speaker 1: have not bet the Giants, and I have not bet
Speaker 1: the Patriots, and I'm not sure that I will. The
Speaker 1: only bet you just said to make you feel better, then
Speaker 1: well hold on. The only the only game I've bet
Speaker 1: of those four seven to seven and a half point
Speaker 1: spreads is the Panthers, and that's only because I bet
Speaker 1: it in the summer when I thought the line would
Speaker 1: be much shorter, because I was so in on the
Speaker 1: Panthers go ahead.
Speaker 3: So just this year, this feels like a Vrabel stat
Speaker 3: the Patriots when they grew up by a touchdown remorse
Speaker 3: of six plus points. They are five and oh straight
Speaker 3: up and against the spread this season.
Speaker 1: In this way, I bet you bet Vrabel exactly.
Speaker 3: That's why I'm like thinking this game, I'm trying to
Speaker 3: throw it all the numbers where it's like that that
Speaker 3: sums up the veryble type of team he's going to
Speaker 3: be this year, where it's like, if if he gets
Speaker 3: up a lead in this game, I just how do
Speaker 3: the Browns come back?
Speaker 2: So Chad's right, we should try to avoid this one.
Speaker 2: I don't think I'm gonna be able to.
Speaker 3: I will be shocked come Sunday morning, like I'm gonna
Speaker 3: probably bett in the Patriots my seven. I just I
Speaker 3: can't get over how to how different this Browns team
Speaker 3: is on the road and how bad of a spot
Speaker 3: is for their quarterback. So yeah, I just it's it's
Speaker 3: interesting those those trends pointing to it being a bad
Speaker 3: spot for the Patriots, but they feel a little bit
Speaker 3: like a unicorn here.
Speaker 1: Terrible Dallas at Denver, Denver, MINEUS three. Now, this was
Speaker 1: Chad's choice when it was three and a half. It
Speaker 1: moved in my direction basically because I move lines and
Speaker 1: so nothing really moving me off of this pick other
Speaker 1: than nightmares of bow knicks throwing into empty spots in
Speaker 1: the middle of his own which he is not as
Speaker 1: good as he is against man to man and unfortunately,
Speaker 1: Matt Iberflus loves to play zone, except for last week
Speaker 1: when he played Mando man against third and fourth string receivers.
Speaker 1: So I liked when you said the wise guys were
Speaker 1: on this because I very much wanted to be a
Speaker 1: Broncos game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was really confident.
Speaker 1: I misspoke. I misspoke. I'm sorry. I bet this at three,
Speaker 1: it moved up to three and a half, and now
Speaker 1: it's back down to three. At hard Rock. Bet I apologize.
Speaker 1: I moved on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, when we talk to you guys, really coughm this one.
Speaker 2: Really loved Denver here, Thanky not the best.
Speaker 3: Just because Chad's talked about we're backing bow Knicks, who
Speaker 3: as good he's been this year with all these crazy
Speaker 3: comfort behind wins, we're telling people to take him at
Speaker 3: minus three, minus three and a half as a favorite,
Speaker 3: Like that's not ideal for a quarterback that seems like
Speaker 3: he can't roll these teams, Like we need him to
Speaker 3: roll Dallas because Dak's gonna get his We already talked
Speaker 3: about Dak is one of the few quarterbacks I can
Speaker 3: remember that is on an incredible run with a terrible defense.
Speaker 3: When he's not turning the ball over, he's just playing
Speaker 3: so smart. Like the biggest thing we could take away
Speaker 3: from Dak is hoping for three and outs and we
Speaker 3: have that.
Speaker 2: We've talked about it.
Speaker 3: This Broncos front should give them real problems and you know,
Speaker 3: historical data. I talked to a lot of old, older
Speaker 3: guys who talked about you know, this is a unique
Speaker 3: spot where the Broncos tend to always own this Cowboys team.
Speaker 3: Doesn't matter who the quarterbacks are, who the coaches are
Speaker 3: you can go way back, And I was like, all right,
Speaker 3: is that true?
Speaker 2: And I did.
Speaker 3: Look, last time Dallas beat Denver was with Troy Aikman.
Speaker 3: So it's been a rough go for Dallas historically against
Speaker 3: this Denver team. And I think me and you are
Speaker 3: really banking on the defense. I know, Bo Nicks, we're
Speaker 3: gonna need to move the ball, We're gonna need even
Speaker 3: a score. But I like to think Sean Payne can
Speaker 3: scheme it around this terrible Dallas defense. There's gonna be
Speaker 3: plenty of options and holes. We just can't have him
Speaker 3: do what he's been doing, which is slow starts like
Speaker 3: he gets he puts himselves in these holes, and then
Speaker 3: we're asking bo Nicks to throw us out of these holes,
Speaker 3: which is not a specially want to be in. So yeah,
Speaker 3: I know, I've had a couple people send me those trends.
Speaker 3: Teams that basically come from behind like they did, it's
Speaker 3: horrible for them historically the following game, right, they tend
Speaker 3: to not cover.
Speaker 2: But me and Chad always say, there's a six percent chain.
Speaker 3: It's stat on the other side of that trend, So
Speaker 3: we're just oping Bo's that thirty six percent we just
Speaker 3: need him to show up here. And it really is
Speaker 3: a bet though on that Broncos front, Like if we
Speaker 3: get pressure on Dak Tax due to have a letdown game,
Speaker 3: he's been so flawless.
Speaker 2: They you know the weapons they.
Speaker 3: Have Dallas, this this historically should be a bad matchup
Speaker 3: for them, So pretty unique spot right. The total I
Speaker 3: believe in this one's fifty as well. Bow Knicks his
Speaker 3: career totals above forty five as a favorite.
Speaker 2: He's one three straight up and against the spread.
Speaker 3: So to prove it game for Bonnicks, you're getting a
Speaker 3: bad defense, you need to put up points. This is
Speaker 3: not going to be the type of game you're going
Speaker 3: to be able to win twenty to ten, right, I
Speaker 3: think that's going to get his So we we're betting
Speaker 3: on Bonex here, Chab, I will stay with you. I
Speaker 3: will still back this Brocks team, especially it minus three.
Speaker 3: I think that's a great number.
Speaker 1: It makes me nervous. I'm not gonna lie, but come in.
Speaker 1: I'm totally in Green Bay. At Pittsburgh the last game
Speaker 1: we're discussing purely a play, purely a play. It's Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: plus three, purely a play on the Steelers as dogs
Speaker 1: at home. We do like what we've seen from Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: as a defense now that everyone has returned from injury,
Speaker 1: especially Alex Heighsmith. Why do you like me?
Speaker 2: We know what happened last year against the Bengals, but
Speaker 2: you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but generally, generally, I also know that's.
Speaker 2: What the people are gonna be, Like, what the hell
Speaker 2: is this guy talking about?
Speaker 1: Yeah, like people like when we said, like when when
Speaker 1: we said the Bears would be eleven point favorites on
Speaker 1: the road with an eighteen point swing. I'm not a
Speaker 1: buyer of this Packers team. Like, they just don't seem
Speaker 1: to be able to be as great as their individual
Speaker 1: talent right now. I don't know what's going on there,
Speaker 1: but this is the Robert mc thomlins spot. That's it.
Speaker 1: That's all we're betting here.
Speaker 2: Again, one of us watched the Ravens play Houston. All
Speaker 2: of us were out apple pickers.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, oh why they they're gallibant and it's
Speaker 3: very bizarre. Yeah, no brainer. We're never gonna avoid this game.
Speaker 3: We're gonna get burned by it, but historically we won't
Speaker 3: like long.
Speaker 1: Term burned by everything.
Speaker 2: This week, well, it just feels like it feels too easy.
Speaker 3: I don't know to you, but it's like, I can't
Speaker 3: believe I'm still able to get Pittsburgh here at three
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 2: It just feels bizarre.
Speaker 3: I don't know who's betting in Green Bay mins three
Speaker 3: and a half other than smart professionals, because the public,
Speaker 3: they're taking the threes. They're happy to take the minus threes,
Speaker 3: and on this Packers team. So what we really have
Speaker 3: to dive into is just what we talked a little
Speaker 3: bit about with Tomlin. After his defense gets embarrassed, he
Speaker 3: bounces back. You know, the numbers prove that out after
Speaker 3: allowing thirty plus points Tomlin's defenses twenty nine twelve and
Speaker 3: one against the spreads seventy one percent.
Speaker 2: That's insane. Let the greatest of all time look at
Speaker 2: you work when they're at home after a bad defensive
Speaker 2: a performance.
Speaker 3: Like that twenty one eight and one seventy two percent
Speaker 3: under Tomlin and against the spread.
Speaker 2: So it's like, all right, those are stats who are
Speaker 2: looking for that.
Speaker 3: That proves out our point that he gets his defenses
Speaker 3: up after those type of games. And a lot of
Speaker 3: it's being made in the media about Rogers playing against
Speaker 3: his former team. The trends actually don't point to that
Speaker 3: being a good spot. Basically every quarterback that's played their
Speaker 3: former team failed to cover except Drew Brees, who covered
Speaker 3: and beat the Chargers. So I guess historically it shows
Speaker 3: that these guys getting their own heads. It's a a
Speaker 3: big moment, and it's tough for them to just play
Speaker 3: the game, not overthink things and get emotional playing their
Speaker 3: former team. But we also have some nice historical stuff
Speaker 3: on our side. The Packers just aren't good in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: Their last six games are owned six the last fifty years,
Speaker 3: So last time they won was in nineteen seventy. And
Speaker 3: you know, it's crazy to think Pittsburgh the last time
Speaker 3: they started that run a beating green Bay at home,
Speaker 3: it was Terry Bradshaw beating you know, a Bart star
Speaker 3: led team.
Speaker 2: So it's been a long time.
Speaker 3: You're being green Bay, you're betting on something that hasn't
Speaker 3: happened in fifty years.
Speaker 2: People.
Speaker 3: So I love all those trends at point to Tomlin,
Speaker 3: I love that we talked about with the defense, they
Speaker 3: seem to get right in these exact spots, and I
Speaker 3: just think our view of Green Bay is right that
Speaker 3: they're just something's wrong with them. They're not fully formed either.
Speaker 3: The offense is just a little off. They're defense still
Speaker 3: isn't right.
Speaker 2: I think we're getting a good value here on this
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh team that we talked about.
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed last week. Their defense got embarrassed. Tomlin
Speaker 3: usually has those guys bounced back on the spot. So
Speaker 3: trends love it. We love it, can't avoid it. Gonna
Speaker 3: hammer this one probably be one of my bigger beats
Speaker 3: this week.
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about that. I will review where we
Speaker 1: stand heading into Sunday at the end of the show.
Speaker 1: But you're bringing up your biggest bets. What are Simon's
Speaker 1: biggest bets?
Speaker 2: Pull up bose pants and be a man.
Speaker 3: Honestly, I'm not going too crazy yet this week because
Speaker 3: of all the unknowns with injuries and stuff, like, they're
Speaker 3: going a pretty big position in Houston. Just because I
Speaker 3: was worried that numbers is gonna shoot up to two
Speaker 3: and a half, it really is held pretty strong at
Speaker 3: its point.
Speaker 2: I'll get there.
Speaker 3: On Pittsburgh, I'm really gonna be doing these moneyline favorites,
Speaker 3: like I just don't see a world where the Patriots loose.
Speaker 2: I don't see a world where the Bills lose to
Speaker 2: Andy Dolton, Like the Bills are super desperate.
Speaker 3: So this week, just like last week I talked about
Speaker 3: through all out of those favorites together, I think we
Speaker 3: went five to one or four and one on the
Speaker 3: favorite money line. Like it's just it's how it is
Speaker 3: right now. People like you can say we're getting lucky, Like, yeah,
Speaker 3: I did. I feel like I got lucky with Denver's
Speaker 3: money line. Yeah, green Bay's money line, Like that game
Speaker 3: came down to a fourth and two where green Bay
Speaker 3: went for and they got it and scored a touchdown.
Speaker 3: Like I know, it's just the way the league is now.
Speaker 3: The chalk keeps winning. So I get why you don't
Speaker 3: love the spreads this week. To me, it just feels
Speaker 3: like the books have gotten really sharp with these lines.
Speaker 3: So you know, Denver minus three, I'm gonna take a
Speaker 3: position on it will be one of my bigger bets now.
Speaker 3: I much rather have a ton of money on Hurt's
Speaker 3: money line and Josh Allen's money line than Boone Nicks
Speaker 3: on the spread. So it is a tough week with
Speaker 3: that where it's like I just I don't trust some
Speaker 3: of these guys, and I'm having to take positions on
Speaker 3: them just because the number is right. But to me,
Speaker 3: you know, that Ravens game, if Lamar is cleared, I'm
Speaker 3: probably gonna take I know, Chack can't believe. I think
Speaker 3: it's a fourteen point swing, but I'm telling you, Cooper
Speaker 3: Rush is that bad. I think the more or is
Speaker 3: that big of an improvement that offense. And even if
Speaker 3: his legs aren't fully back, his arm is good enough.
Speaker 3: Now say Flowers, Isaiah likely all those pieces there. I
Speaker 3: think it's a It's a great matchup for this Ravens
Speaker 3: team against a Bears team that you know, incredible round
Speaker 3: by this Bears team, But eventually it's gonna catch them.
Speaker 3: They just can't keep covering these games, can they chat?
Speaker 3: So I I hate that we've missed that. I know
Speaker 3: it's your team, but I have to sell the Bears
Speaker 3: at some point.
Speaker 1: I feel like, oh, I'm there, I'm totally there. All right,
Speaker 1: let's talk about our before we get to the favorite. Probably,
Speaker 1: let's talk about our underdog parlay. My dog blocks your dog,
Speaker 1: Your dog blocks my dog.
Speaker 2: Steelers, Steelers, Jets.
Speaker 1: Jets get the Saints.
Speaker 2: This is where it gets tough.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is where it gets a little tricky.
Speaker 2: I mean, of course once seven and oh on Thursday
Speaker 2: night games? Did you see that stupid stat? Oh? Really, yeah,
Speaker 2: it's incredible.
Speaker 1: I don't love doing a Thursday night game like people
Speaker 1: can't true it is plus one.
Speaker 2: I want to get a little taste of that one.
Speaker 1: How about the Giants, I can't.
Speaker 2: See it, but I'll take the value. Right, it's plus
Speaker 2: three thirty. That's a good number.
Speaker 3: I don't think they've beaten Eagles and back to back,
Speaker 3: so beat him twice in a season since two thousand
Speaker 3: and seven.
Speaker 1: Carolina can't get there.
Speaker 2: I just can't.
Speaker 3: I mean, for we're being honest, we should put the
Speaker 3: Bears in case Lamar doesn't play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good idea.
Speaker 3: Okay, Like again, I have nothing on their number, but
Speaker 3: at plus two thirty, if it comes out like people,
Speaker 3: Chad thinks it's crazy people in the showm I think
Speaker 3: it's crazy.
Speaker 2: I just that's how low I am.
Speaker 3: A Cooper Rush I just could not get over how
Speaker 3: horrible his film has been since he's been a raven.
Speaker 3: So if I was at I just took the other backup.
Speaker 3: Like just he is doing zero for their offense. He's
Speaker 3: just horrible. So yeah, that's that's that, Like could easily
Speaker 3: flip if it's not. Lamar could easily see that become
Speaker 3: a plus plus three plus three and a half Ravens.
Speaker 1: Line favorites parlay Patriots Bills, Chiefs.
Speaker 3: Take the Chiefs down to minus five and a half
Speaker 3: or minus six and a half, Colts take the Colts
Speaker 3: down to minus five and a half minus six and
Speaker 3: a half. Gotta put Denver in we both believe in them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so okay, Pats Bills, Chiefs that are not line
Speaker 1: of five and a half six and a half, Colts
Speaker 1: that are not lining outline of five and a half
Speaker 1: six and a half, and then Denver. That is our favorites.
Speaker 1: Parlay again the underdog parlay Steelers Jets, Saints Giants. No,
Speaker 1: who do we say Steelers Jets? Do we say Giants?
Speaker 2: No? We did put Giants in the plus three thirty.
Speaker 1: Steelers jetge Saints Giants.
Speaker 3: And then for survivor, don't hate Patriots this week, don't.
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm not gonna do it personally just because
Speaker 3: for my contest, I still have the Colts, and I
Speaker 3: just I'm trying to go super safe, so survivor.
Speaker 2: I am going Colts. Don't hate Patriots. And you know, obviously, if.
Speaker 3: You're a wild child, you could do Cincinnati Bengals and
Speaker 3: the Flacco.
Speaker 2: But I just I can't get there.
Speaker 3: I know some pros that are doing it because they're like,
Speaker 3: what am I gonna use the Bengals again? I just
Speaker 3: I can't. I cannot do it. I cannot trust Flacco.
Speaker 1: Who are you doing for Sharper Square?
Speaker 2: Uh? I mean, I guess I gotta do. I gotta
Speaker 2: take Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: Give me the Steelers plus three or three and a half,
Speaker 3: whatever I can get, all.
Speaker 1: Right, So Steelers for you there. I am going to
Speaker 1: take a ton of options here an ugly week.
Speaker 2: I love it, though it's so.
Speaker 1: Ugly, like I might have to double up. I think
Speaker 1: I have to go with Denver.
Speaker 2: Don't do that. Don't put your eggs on one basket.
Speaker 2: Why don't you do the Giants? You like them? Seven
Speaker 2: and a half? All right, let me double down, don't
Speaker 2: do it.
Speaker 1: You know what I'm gonna do. It's crazy, but I'm
Speaker 1: feeling lucky.
Speaker 2: Okay, New York Jets taking the Jets six and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm doing it.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: Look at you New York Jets Sharp versus Square, and
Speaker 1: You're taking the Steelers at three and a half. I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Jets at six and a half. That's how
Speaker 1: we roll on this show. What a crazy, crazy day.
Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 1: We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning.
Speaker 1: Lease drop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon
Speaker 1: as we make utterly human decisions and regret the rest
Speaker 1: of the day. We will be back on Sharper Square
Speaker 1: YouTube Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap all
Speaker 1: that misery. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square
Speaker 1: like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also download us
Speaker 1: some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
Speaker 1: use five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you,