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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bett. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman and I am

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Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion Mike

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Speaker 1: and padre My BFF professional Better Signment Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in Chad. What's going on?

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Speaker 1: This morning? The FBI, the US Attorney from the Eastern

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Speaker 1: District announced a sweeping set of indictments against many people,

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Speaker 1: including members of three families of the Mafia, LaCOSA and Nostra,

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Speaker 1: including Portland Trailblazers head coach Chauncey Billups, including Damon Jones,

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Speaker 1: former Cleveland Cavalier and assistant coach Terry Rozier. Two separate indictments.

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Speaker 1: I will set the stage here to indictment thirty four

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Speaker 1: different people involved. One indictment is for illegal poker rooms

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Speaker 1: and swindling unsuspecting players in those poker rooms. That's what

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Speaker 1: Chauncey Billups is involved in and Damon Jones is involved in.

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Speaker 1: The US attorney in the press conference referred to Chauncey

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Speaker 1: Billups and Damon Jones as the face cards of the operation,

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Speaker 1: meaning they were the famous people who brought in the rich,

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Speaker 1: unsuspecting fish into the games who were then taken. And

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Speaker 1: then another indictment in which they're overlapping people is the

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Speaker 1: one in which Tera Rozier has been indicted for the

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Speaker 1: sports betting sharing of information that also is tied to

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Speaker 1: Johntay Porter, who famously was banned. This is involving player

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Speaker 1: props and Terry Razier player props. Crazy story, definitely. You know,

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Speaker 1: the stakes keep getting higher on the gambling scandals since legalization,

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Speaker 1: and last a couple of years ago there was the

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Speaker 1: Otani interpreter scandal. Now this is front page news. This

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Speaker 1: has been blown up all morning since the arrest at

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Speaker 1: six o'clock in the morning, both in Portland and in

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Speaker 1: Orlando where Terry Razier was after the Heat game last night.

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Speaker 1: He did not play last night, and now there was

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Speaker 1: a press conference that was all over the news. Looks

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Speaker 1: it's a weird thing. We do a show on betting.

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Speaker 1: We have a good time. We talk about betting on

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Speaker 1: the games, We talk about where the opportunities are. That's

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Speaker 1: the primary focus of what we do. But you and

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Speaker 1: I are also very much in this world. We know

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Speaker 1: a lot about the poker rooms. We know a lot

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Speaker 1: about what's happening in the sports betting space beyond what

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Speaker 1: we talk about on the show. I'm in the middle

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Speaker 1: of working on a book about this world of sports

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Speaker 1: betting that will come out, you know in the next say,

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Speaker 1: twelve to twenty four months. You obviously ad are professional better.

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Speaker 1: There's going to be a lot of conversation about legalization

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Speaker 1: being the cause and these scandals being the effect. I

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Speaker 1: got a lot of thoughts on that, but let's break

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Speaker 1: down the news for a second. You're seeing this, what

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts?

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Speaker 3: Sadly, never shocked, just because, like you said, I am

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Speaker 3: in this world and we've talked all the time. I'm

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Speaker 3: someone that I love poker, I love Texas hold them,

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Speaker 3: and I play a lot of house games in the offseason.

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Speaker 3: I do a lot of casino games, a lot of tournaments.

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Speaker 3: But there's always gonna be house games, right. But you

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Speaker 3: hear of these games with dirty tables and fixed games,

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Speaker 3: and you might get away with it on one or

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Speaker 3: two millionaires. Not all millionaires are dumb that look into it, right.

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Speaker 3: We've all met guys who you're like, Okay, he was

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Speaker 3: born into it, or he found a right niche.

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Speaker 2: This guy's not that smart.

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Speaker 3: Some guys are brilliant and they are incredibly smart with people,

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Speaker 3: and they can see things that normal people can't see.

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Speaker 2: That's how they made all their money.

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Speaker 3: All it takes is one of them to get into

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Speaker 3: that game and they can tell right away something's off,

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Speaker 3: something's fixed. Then they go again and if the same

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Speaker 3: thing happens again, they're gonna notice it again. So it's

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Speaker 3: really about the names, right, It's huge names we all know.

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Speaker 3: I mean Chauncey Billups. He's one of my favorite players ever.

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Speaker 3: Like he played in Detroit Nuggets and then he came

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Speaker 3: to Philly and I love them like I love Chauncey Bills.

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Speaker 2: I think I have a Chauncey Billups Sixers Jersey. No joke.

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Speaker 3: So sad because you know how much money this man

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Speaker 3: has made in his career, and it wasn't enough. He

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Speaker 3: wasn't Like when when you hear people doing stuff like this,

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Speaker 3: they could say they did it for the money and

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Speaker 3: their family, whatever they want to say.

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Speaker 2: It's like Walter White and breaking Bad. You did it

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Speaker 2: for you.

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Speaker 3: You didn't do this for anything other than yourself and crazy,

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Speaker 3: crazy story. Like you said, it's the tip of the

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Speaker 3: iceberg a lot of times, right, So much more stuff

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Speaker 3: is going to come out as it's unfold.

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Speaker 2: So it's a really interesting story. I'm excited to follow.

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Speaker 3: And you know, people like you said, they think it's

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Speaker 3: bad the legalization of gamelin. This is why it's good

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Speaker 3: because before this would be handled off the radar, this

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Speaker 3: would not be handled in the public eye. I promise

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Speaker 3: you that. So things are just changed now and it's

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Speaker 3: a good thing. These guys should the light a day.

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Speaker 3: And like you just said, all the laves it's going

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Speaker 3: to affect. This must be a huge, multi million dollar operation,

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Speaker 3: and like I said, it's it's gonna be really interesting

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Speaker 3: these next couple of months, all the information that's going

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Speaker 3: to come out.

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Speaker 1: Some of the details from the press conference that the

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Speaker 1: US Attorney and the FBI had this morning in New

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Speaker 1: York were that the tables at these illegal poker games

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Speaker 1: included X ray technology that allowed site individuals to see

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Speaker 1: the face down cards of the players at the table

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Speaker 1: and then relay that information to other people at the table.

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Speaker 1: There were contact lenses and glasses that were able to

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Speaker 1: read watermarks, on pre marked cards at the table. There

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Speaker 1: were mini cameras inside the card trays that a lot

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Speaker 1: of the players had at their table, so the cameras

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Speaker 1: were able to read what cards people had and again

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Speaker 1: relay all that to off site operators who were then

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Speaker 1: able to share that with other people at the table.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot about these card rooms, like I've

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Speaker 1: spoken to a lot of professional poker players about it,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of people who are playing for high

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Speaker 1: stakes games. This is how a lot of professional poker players,

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Speaker 1: not games like these that are fixed, but a lot

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Speaker 1: of professional poker players even at the World Series of Poker,

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Speaker 1: these are the games that are going on. These are

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Speaker 1: the games where the cash is being traded, where you know,

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Speaker 1: it's one million, two million, three million, ten million on

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Speaker 1: the table at the World Series of Poker, because these

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Speaker 1: games go on all night and that's where the real

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Speaker 1: action is happening. And they've been at the center of

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Speaker 1: this gambling controversy that started with Jean de Porter and

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Speaker 1: so the marriage of these things, and it was also

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Speaker 1: I think a part of the Otani stuff, the marriage

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Speaker 1: of these things and how these things take place between

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Speaker 1: just very wealthy people across the board is where I

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Speaker 1: think sort of the real intriguing sort of narrative is

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Speaker 1: taking place. Just like you're in these poker rooms. You

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Speaker 1: like to play poker, you just said that, Like when

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Speaker 1: you're inside there, what does it feel like?

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's fun, honestly, It's all about how you

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Speaker 3: viewed money though, like these people view money the same

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Speaker 3: way I do. That It's just it's something to have

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Speaker 3: fun with. It's not so much you know, like again,

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Speaker 3: you can have rough nights. No one wants to lose money.

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Speaker 3: But it's not like in Sopranos, right where the guys like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I got one hundred and fifty K, and I owe

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Speaker 3: this this casino room. It doesn't really work that way, right,

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Speaker 3: It's you're spoken for. You're not going into debt selling

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Speaker 3: your business to play in these casino rooms.

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Speaker 2: So that's what interesting part of this though.

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Speaker 3: This is like way above my levels, Like I've played

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Speaker 3: in some games I shouldn't have been in, and I

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Speaker 3: literally play super tight and I'm literally just there to build.

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Speaker 2: Relationships in the conversation, I honestly aim there.

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Speaker 3: If I can get up ten k, great, If I

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Speaker 3: lose ten k, okay, I'll walk away. But I'll never

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Speaker 3: go all in unless I have the nuts, and guys

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Speaker 3: in that room will know that. So if I do push,

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Speaker 3: they almost always fold, So I can bluff myself into

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Speaker 3: some nice spots. But I play super super tight in

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Speaker 3: those games. There's guys who sit down and they will

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Speaker 3: go all in every three or four hands. They just

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Speaker 3: like the action and they're there for the drinks, the cigars,

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Speaker 3: the fun.

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Speaker 2: It's it's all different. Everyone's there for different reasons.

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Speaker 3: So this one, like you said from the top, Chauncey Billups,

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Speaker 3: if someone said you want to come to this pooker game,

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Speaker 3: you can beat Chauncey Billups.

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Speaker 2: I'm a sucker.

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Speaker 3: I would have been there so him be them putting

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Speaker 3: him out there and being like he was running this

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Speaker 3: thing and he knew that he could get people in

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Speaker 3: there because of who he was. I believe that right

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Speaker 3: from the top. So yeah, again, American reporting people keep

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Speaker 3: saying it's dying, Chad's it's not dead yet. It's not

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Speaker 3: dead yet, and the stories are pretty incredible when they

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Speaker 3: do get broken. So yeah, I don't know if it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be Pablo Torrey finds out, but you know, that's

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Speaker 3: the greatest fear I think at all sports media right

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Speaker 3: now is you do not want to know if Pablo

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Speaker 3: toy is looking into you. I would love a Poblo

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Speaker 3: breakdown a show about this one, because, like we said,

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Speaker 3: we're just getting the layers here.

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Speaker 2: Man, you think it just stops at Terry Rosier.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this tea might get really juicing in the

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Speaker 3: NBA not I don't want to say it's the most

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Speaker 3: corrupt league or whatever, but between the the owners, the players,

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Speaker 3: no other leagues have these type of scandals right now.

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Speaker 3: This is really really wild that every sport has their

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Speaker 3: own little scandals. I hope this is where it ends

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Speaker 3: for the.

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Speaker 2: NBA because between what's going on the Clippers now what's

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Speaker 2: going on with players in the league.

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Speaker 3: They need this to stop. You need this to stop

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Speaker 3: the NBA. This is such a bad look.

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Speaker 1: Well look, the the player prop problem is the biggest

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Speaker 1: challenge for the NBA. And Adam Silver was on Pat

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Speaker 1: McAfee thirty six hours ago, forty eight hours ago talking

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Speaker 1: about working with the operators to try to limit certain

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Speaker 1: player prop markets, and I will tell you right now,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe legalization is the cause of these issues.

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Speaker 1: I think legalization is part of why we are learning

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Speaker 1: more and more about these issues. There are so many

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Speaker 1: people that are involved in the chain that have so

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Speaker 1: much to lose financially. And I don't mean individuals, I

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Speaker 1: mean huge corporations and these leagues. It is in their

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Speaker 1: best interest as much as it is a bad look

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Speaker 1: when this happens, to root out every single one of

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Speaker 1: these instances, because you can't have bad actors, and there

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Speaker 1: are always going to be bad actors. And we've talked

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Speaker 1: about this on this show. Literally the National League was

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Speaker 1: formed in something like eighteen seventy six. In eighteen seventy seven,

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Speaker 1: there was a scandal about players who were fixing baseball games.

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Speaker 1: It is going to happen. It is time immemorium. It

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Speaker 1: is not going to stop people from betting. The amount

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Speaker 1: of money that is wagered every year gets bigger and bigger.

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Speaker 1: Only now we have a much better understanding of what

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Speaker 1: that money is and where that money is going to realize.

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Speaker 2: We're catching check because these are done through legal books.

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Speaker 2: We're not talking offshore.

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Speaker 1: Well that's what I mean.

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Speaker 2: Really, that's why you need these legal books.

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Speaker 3: Like Chad saying here, it's like without it, we wouldn't

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Speaker 3: catch these people, maybe it'd all be offshore like it

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Speaker 3: used to be, and there'd be no stories in the

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Speaker 3: news like your naive if you think this is something

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Speaker 3: new is what I think we're both saying, RIGHTO.

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Speaker 1: Right, And but I don't want to turn this into

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Speaker 1: like advocacy for sports betting, because we are both sort

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Speaker 1: of shills in that regard. But I do think that

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Speaker 1: back to the player props, that's the biggest challenge. You know,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned a guy is making so much money, why

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Speaker 1: would he do it while he's doing it for him?

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Speaker 1: I don't know what Terror Razier's financial situation is. I

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Speaker 1: don't know who he was doing this for, why he

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Speaker 1: was doing it, what the situation was in any capacity.

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Speaker 1: I do know that Terror Razier is in the last

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Speaker 1: year of a four year, ninety six million dollar contract. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 1: And so he's not Jante Porter. He's not the guy

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Speaker 1: who's on a two way at the end of the bench,

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Speaker 1: is bouncing around between the G League and the NBA

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Speaker 1: and maybe fifty thousand dollars as a quick amount of

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Speaker 1: cash means something to him. So we don't know what

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Speaker 1: it is with Terry Razier. But the premise has always

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Speaker 1: been that a lot of these leagues are protected from

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Speaker 1: fixing scandals because the amount of money for the people

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Speaker 1: who can impact the actual game is so high that

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Speaker 1: it won't be worth it for them to get caught

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Speaker 1: up in this. But the props change that. The props

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Speaker 1: change everything, and I think specifically in the NBA more

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Speaker 1: than any other league, it's harder for a running back

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Speaker 1: to always be in control of his own destiny because

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Speaker 1: he doesn't know how many times he's going to get

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Speaker 1: the ball right. That's determined on the situation in the

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Speaker 1: flow of the game. Same with baseball, it's really only

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Speaker 1: controlled by the pitcher. And we've already seen in the

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Speaker 1: case of the Guardians' pitchers who have been suspended under

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Speaker 1: under investigation how that can be figured out. Because it

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Speaker 1: is so egregious that there are monitoring agencies and the

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Speaker 1: operators in the leagues that are working together say we've

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Speaker 1: got some weird activity. We got to flag this. The NBA, anybody,

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Speaker 1: any individual player, with all the markets that are available,

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Speaker 1: as much as they are trying to limit the markets

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Speaker 1: that are allowable, especially for end of bench players, that's

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Speaker 1: an impossible scenario to police. That changes the argument about

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Speaker 1: whether or not there is an amount of money that

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Speaker 1: would keep people from fixing a game, because it's not

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Speaker 1: about the game anymore. It's just about your individual performance.

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Speaker 1: And even then, it's not about always doing badly. It's

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Speaker 1: about just doing badly enough to make it look like

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Speaker 1: it's not suspicious. That's the real and city is dangerous.

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Speaker 1: Part of what we're talking about here is that prop market,

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Speaker 1: especially for the NBA. I don't know. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how they fix it.

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Speaker 3: I don't know either, but they've been trying for years.

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Speaker 3: I mean, let's face it, the NBA, this isn't new.

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Speaker 3: We never talk about it, like the ref between the

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Speaker 3: ref scandals, the player scandals. It's it's been there in

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Speaker 3: this league for a long time. I mean, the greatest

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Speaker 3: player in NBA history had a gambling scandal.

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Speaker 2: So you know, they're in a really.

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Speaker 3: Tough spot where whatever it is that nature that it

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Speaker 3: goes handing in every sport has its degenerates. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we had a guy on talking about Pete Rose, some

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Speaker 3: amazing stories, but.

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Speaker 2: It just feels like, as we're going along.

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Speaker 3: Here chat, it's just of all the leagues I have

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Speaker 3: the least amount of trust in right now, obviously air hockey,

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Speaker 3: you know that whole scandal and all that stuff. Badminton,

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Speaker 3: we're not talking about. We're talking about the major sports,

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Speaker 3: NBA of the major sports right now it has My

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Speaker 3: eyes are definitely fixed on it, and I have I

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Speaker 3: just hope this is it. I hope this is the

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Speaker 3: end of it, because it's just this could get really bad.

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Speaker 3: Like we've talked about. We haven't really talked about, but

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Speaker 3: it's it's coming pared to a lot of people that

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Speaker 3: the NBA hit its peak with Lebron in Golden State

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Speaker 3: against Steph Curry, right, that.

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Speaker 2: Was the ratings galore.

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Speaker 3: The MLB has a real opening here because it's like

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Speaker 3: a romantic sadrenal. MB has had a nice re substance

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Speaker 3: of coming back to being a major sport. It's biggest

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Speaker 3: scandal with its biggest player. It looks like they avoided it,

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Speaker 3: and it's I don't know about you, but like Otani,

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Speaker 3: he's the greatest player I've ever seen in my lifetime.

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Speaker 3: So it's like, I get why they found a way out.

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Speaker 3: They move bridges to make that work, and like we

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Speaker 3: always joke, he's one of us.

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Speaker 2: Like it makes me love.

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Speaker 3: Them even more knowing the guy's a gambler. But the

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Speaker 3: based stuff, it's not funny, it's not cute. This is

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Speaker 3: scary stuff. It's within its league with its big players.

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Speaker 3: Like Chad just said, I didn't know Terry made a

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Speaker 3: ninety million That's that's insane amount of money.

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Speaker 1: Four year, ninety six million dollar deal.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's I'm sure you're gonna get a ton

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Speaker 3: of calls over the next week, you'll get more infun of.

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Speaker 1: But as we said it right now is literally I

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Speaker 1: just checked it. It's like NonStop texting right now from

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Speaker 1: people in the industry, from people who are just waking

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Speaker 1: up to this. Uh, they're truly astonished. They're blown away. Look,

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Speaker 1: last I'm a massive NBA fan. I watched League Pass constantly.

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Speaker 1: I was on lead Pass last night. I started with

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Speaker 1: the Calves and the Knicks. Then I went over to

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Speaker 1: the Bulls. I'm watching the Bulls and the Pistons and

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Speaker 1: Adam Amine and Stacy King who are the Bulls play

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Speaker 1: by play and color commentary. They're brilliant. I love them together.

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Speaker 1: It's It's one of my favorite things is when the

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Speaker 1: season starts, it's like it's I did see VJ. Edgecomb

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Speaker 1: and dominate it and Tyrese Maxi go for forty. But

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Speaker 1: and but here, here's my point is, Adam Amine is

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Speaker 1: a brilliant play by play guy. And we've seen that season.

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Speaker 1: He did that fifteen innings Mariner's game, he does NFL,

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Speaker 1: he does the Bulls play by play. Last night they

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Speaker 1: were playing the Pistons and they were talking about Ducan

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Speaker 1: Robinson and Duncan Robinson has replaced as a three point

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Speaker 1: threat Malik Beasley. Malik Beasley, who had a record setting

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Speaker 1: year last year, had gotten a new contract from the

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Speaker 1: Pistons and then he was part of a gambling investigation

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Speaker 1: and that contract was pulled and he's still on the

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Speaker 1: street because the investigation is still happening. And you know,

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Speaker 1: Adam Amine was doing a brilliant job of explaining what

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Speaker 1: it is and perfectly threading the needle, not being accusatory,

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Speaker 1: not saying anything that was sort of a stretch about

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Speaker 1: where the investigation is, but being specific that this was

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Speaker 1: about prop betting, right, and Malik Beasley no joke. Thirty

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Speaker 1: seconds after he's done an in game promo for the

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Speaker 1: betting spot, answer of the Chicago Bulls in the game

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Speaker 1: comes up all about live player props. You can be

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Speaker 1: betting in the middle of that game. And Adam Amine,

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Speaker 1: to his credit, did not skip a beat. He did

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Speaker 1: not try to gloss over it. He acknowledged the irony.

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Speaker 1: He noticed the He called out his producer. He's like,

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Speaker 1: I can't believe you're doing this right now. It was brilliant.

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Speaker 1: I kind of feel like that's us right now. There's

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Speaker 1: a very serious thing happening, and we obviously have to

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Speaker 1: talk about it. And you and I have both been

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Speaker 1: very lucky and very successful in this particular industry for many,

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Speaker 1: many years, both with the show and way beyond this show,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna have a good time talking about these

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Speaker 1: NFL games, but it's hard not to acknowledge the serious

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Speaker 1: nature of what's happening and the ramifications on the industry.

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Speaker 1: So that's why we're going to keep talking about it

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Speaker 1: and keep filing up on what's happening with this investigation.

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Speaker 1: It's crazy. Chauncey Billups terror ra Zero arrested by the

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Speaker 1: FBI as part of the legal gambling investigations. Two days

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Speaker 1: ago or yesterday, the NCBULA passed the law allowing college

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Speaker 1: athletes to brett to bet on pro Sports with one

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Speaker 1: of the guys who was on the committee that allowed

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Speaker 1: it basically saying, we got to acknowledge the universe we

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Speaker 1: live in and this is happening, which is how we

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Speaker 1: ended up with legalized betting to begin with. And the

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Speaker 1: NHL signed deals with multiple prediction market platforms which have

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Speaker 1: zero regulation. So here's where we are. People are going

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Speaker 1: to say there needs to be regulation. People are going

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Speaker 1: to sign deals with prediction markets who want to pay

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Speaker 1: them a boatload of money that have no regulation. This

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Speaker 1: is the state the sports betting world that we live in.

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Speaker 1: The NFL chugs on and we're going to have to

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Speaker 1: figure out how we are telling our audience and what

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Speaker 1: we like in an upcoming weekend that for our Thursday,

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Speaker 1: Week eight episode, we need to narrow down the options

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Speaker 1: on our questifying five picks that we can agree on.

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Speaker 1: And I think it's hard because meanwhile, all this head twisting,

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Speaker 1: mind bending, the Pandora's box is wide freaking open. News

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Speaker 1: is happening. And this may be the strangest week for

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Speaker 1: betting so far this NFL season because we've got the

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Speaker 1: buy to get in, so we don't have a ton

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Speaker 1: of games, and the games that are being played. There's

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Speaker 1: been like half point movements at the most on the

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Speaker 1: games being played except for one of them. The Chiefs

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Speaker 1: have moved two points from ten and a half to

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Speaker 1: twelve and a half against the Washington Commanders off of

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Speaker 1: the confirmation of Jade Daniels. So, man, you know reminder

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Speaker 1: subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. It

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Speaker 1: all sounds silly, ah, Listen every week, Simon. Every week

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Speaker 1: we give out our picks, and every single week your

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Speaker 1: fellow pro gamblers call to yell at you or compliment

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Speaker 1: you about the conversations we're having. We're having because we

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Speaker 1: know the wise guys are paying attention. It's time to

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Speaker 1: summarize those opinions. It's time for sharp calls.

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Speaker 3: Hal to answer this phone, all right, rain range, telephone range.

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Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe want you do man?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? And interesting week. I know you didn't love it.

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Speaker 2: I'm on the other side.

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Speaker 3: I love these kind of weeks, Like there just feels

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Speaker 3: like it's people view it AS's gonna be a boring

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Speaker 3: by the book type of week, And all I can

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Speaker 3: just see is there's there could be a lot of

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Speaker 3: madness and a lot of teams that need this week

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Speaker 3: to get right and when we talked about I still

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Speaker 3: love the Panthers, but I'm surprised there are some real

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Speaker 3: smart pros coming in on that Bill's side, and I'll

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Speaker 3: read some stats, some trends. I still think people are

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Speaker 3: overlooking on this Panthers team. But it seems like the

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Speaker 3: pros I talk to want to fade anytime they can.

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Speaker 3: And Andy Dolton start, they just think he is absolutely finished.

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Speaker 3: No idea how he's still in this league with a job.

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Speaker 3: So that's a game we'll break down. But I can

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Speaker 3: tell you I know some really smart money on the Bills,

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Speaker 3: and they'll end up in our money one round Robin.

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Speaker 3: I'm not too upset about that now, knowing there's so

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Speaker 3: much love there. It's actually a great spot for Josh

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Speaker 3: Allen to win out right the Bears. Some real smart

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Speaker 3: pros on the Bears here as wow. Yeah, And it's

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Speaker 3: they just are not buying Lamar's right, And they're also

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Speaker 3: not buying this Ravens team. They don't think it matters

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Speaker 3: they're getting all these guys back healthy, that this team

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Speaker 3: is just not as good as people perceive.

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Speaker 2: I still think they're.

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Speaker 3: Overlooking how hard of a schedule with this team had like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: they lost the Lions at home, they lost to the

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Speaker 3: Eagles at home.

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Speaker 2: That might be the two of the best teams the NFC.

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Speaker 3: Like I just I think the Raimis have just had

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Speaker 3: a really brutal start to the year and professionals are

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Speaker 3: still holding against them and they just are a namer

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Speaker 3: With this Bears team, who have is a four straight covers,

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Speaker 3: they might have like they just been cashing for them.

431
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 2: They love them.

432
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 3: It's a Rams team that can't stop the run going

433
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: against a really really well run team in the Bears

434
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 3: who had running the ball. So interesting game. We'll have

435
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 3: to break down some more. Got a lot of love

436
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: for my Houston picked but I knew that was gonna

437
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,360
Speaker 3: be the pro side and we'll get into that one.

438
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 3: It's just historically a horrible spot for the forty nine ers.

439
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 3: They tend to lose those type of games.

440
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 2: The Jets. Tons of love for the Jets.

441
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 3: Love that we had on the Jets money line, but

442
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 3: like we joked, not a shocker every week.

443
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 2: The pros are gonna bet them.

444
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 3: Got a bunch of calls about the Giants, the pros

445
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 3: they're gonna bet the Giants every week. Not shocked at all.

446
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: It's it's a money maker for them. So Chat was

447
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 3: spot on about his call about the Saints. He said,

448
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be a team that pros are enamored with.

449
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 3: We are like every probably talk to. They're in the

450
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 3: same boat as me. But again, I think it's a

451
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 3: game we'll get into more about why we like them.

452
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 3: And yeah, for sure, surprisingly has not been good for

453
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 3: the Saints to be at home. I couldn't believe that

454
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 3: diving into their record at home, they just there is

455
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 3: Like you said, you're right, there is no true home

456
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 3: field advantage for this Saints team like there used to be.

457
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: And the last two two games, we love.

458
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 3: Pros love Denver, The pros love the Steelers. I told

459
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,479
Speaker 3: you there are some pros on Green Bay. It's not

460
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 3: as much as I thought it was going to be

461
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 3: earlier in the week. I think their early love didn't

462
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 3: make sense. But the more pros I talked, it seems

463
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 3: like the more they're on Pittsburgh and that that Dallas

464
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 3: game does have some pros on it, but it's very,

465
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: very more so the public on the Cowboys, and it's

466
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 3: the pros for the most part on that Denver side.

467
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 2: So a lot of games that go through I know,

468
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 2: like Chad said, there's three bye weeks. Surprisingly amount of

469
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 2: love for.

470
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 3: The favorites this week from some professional I've talked to you.

471
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, very interesting week for this lineup.

472
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: All right, well let's get into it, and let's start

473
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: right away with Chicago. At Baltimore that number was at

474
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: six and a half. It is down to six at

475
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet. I thought by now it would have

476
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: gone in the other direction, but simon, the Baltimore Ravens

477
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: are going to be our balls better the week presented

478
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 1: by hard Rock Bet.

479
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: You know what it takes, brass balls.

480
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: We think today is crazy with news yesterday. The first

481
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: text I see in the morning is from a buddy

482
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:49,959
Speaker 1: in the Chicago text group that sent it overnight a

483
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: video of Lamar Jackson allegedly at a late night hot

484
00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 1: food truck in Baltimore, ordering loads and loads of food, food,

485
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:10,719
Speaker 1: not looking like he's connected to the conscious world. And

486
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: because you know of the world we live in today,

487
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 1: I immediately thought, well, this is weird, and of course

488
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 1: by the end of the day Lamar had said that

489
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: wasn't true. It was an AI video and you know, like,

490
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if that had an impact on the

491
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:39,719
Speaker 1: move at all. But meanwhile, he did not practice yesterday

492
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: and it was limited in practice. It was a walk through.

493
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 1: He was taking the third string snaps. And I got

494
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: a text in the middle of the day from my

495
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: buddy Mark Silverman, who's better known as Sylvie. He hosts

496
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: the very popular show Wattle and Sylvie on ESPN Radio

497
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 1: in Chicago, and ask me what the line would be

498
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: if Lamar wasn't playing, And it hadn't occurred to me

499
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: that he wouldn't be playing. So that's when I went

500
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 1: to check, like what's happening with the practice reports and

501
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: saw I think, if Lamar Jackson's not playing, it's pick

502
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: maybe the Bears are minus one.

503
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 2: Did you see what Houston did to the Ravens two

504
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: weeks ago?

505
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 1: I did.

506
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed by Houston team that's we can both agree,

507
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 3: not the greatest team in the world.

508
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: They beat them by like thirty points. I mean, what

509
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 2: are we doing here?

510
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 1: Like, well, I'm assuming that the Ravens are going to

511
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: be significantly more healthy on defense, and as they did

512
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: last year in the second half of the year, they

513
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: gave Zach Orr tremendous amount of help to figure out

514
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: how to fix that freaking defense, and they got better

515
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: at it. I'm banking on a little bit of press

516
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: president here in a little bit of health. But here's

517
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: the bigger question. Lamar is playing the lines down to six.

518
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: We've made it our brass Balls bet of the week.

519
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: Here's a stat from our friend John Ing, who tweeted

520
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: this yesterday. You ready, this is good for us, put

521
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 1: us back together. Since two thousand and three, teams that

522
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: have won twenty percent or fewer of their games. So

523
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens and our favorites against an opponent with

524
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 1: a winning record fifty six percent against the spread. I

525
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,959
Speaker 1: just think this is a great spot for the Ravens

526
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: if Lamar is playing and he's healthy, and you know,

527
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: I think we're hoping that he is. That's why we

528
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: made it the brass Balls. The brass balls part here

529
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: is betting on the fact that Lamar is going to

530
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: be playing and thinking we're getting the Ravens at less

531
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: than a touchdown because I do think they'll fix some

532
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: of the issues on defense. I think they've gotten healthier

533
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: and I think that the Bears defense is going to

534
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: have real issues against this rushing offense.

535
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 2: You need to give out the best part of that

536
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 2: stat as a favorite.

537
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 3: So that exact team you just talked about, a team

538
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: with twenty percent fewer wins as a favorite of three

539
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: points or more in this spot, those teams thirty and four,

540
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 3: team sixty eight against the spread.

541
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. I forgot that. I mean, I

542
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: forget that.

543
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 2: It's it's a raven spot. You know, historically.

544
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: We've seen after Bie weeks hardball has done well. I

545
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 3: think he's ten and seven ats after his bie a week,

546
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 3: and you know, we're fading a Bears team that they're

547
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: on our role right now. Like we were talking, I

548
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 3: don't know if that was you know, on the shore

549
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 3: before the show, but they're four they've covered.

550
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: In one four straight games. Yeah, like this is normally

551
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: a team we try to avoid because they are so high.

552
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 3: Right now, they're playing so well and the books keep

553
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 3: undervaluing them and the pros are joining. I mean, like

554
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 3: you just said, this is down to six a hard

555
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 3: rock because there is so much unknown about what's what's

556
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 3: up a little more, But I am banking on it

557
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 3: all being smoke screens and him being a total difference

558
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: maker of this team, even if he is missing.

559
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 2: That half a step.

560
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 3: Him pushing the ball downfield like they got Isaiah likely

561
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: back as well, which I think is gonna be huge

562
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 3: for them. But that's what's been last Like Cooper Rush

563
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 3: can't put the ball downfield and there's no threat to run,

564
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 3: so Derek Henry's just had a stack box and they've

565
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 3: been able to just put one on one on the outside.

566
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: So well, Mark changes everything. There's a reason every year

567
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 3: is then in it for MVP me and you are

568
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 3: simply betting on unknown here, which is scary.

569
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 2: Well, we have to take the value.

570
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: This is a great number, a great line for a

571
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 3: Ravens team that everything we've seen, they should be healthy

572
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: in a get right spot here against the Bears, and

573
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 3: like we said, the trends that love this spot as

574
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 3: well for this this Ravens team.

575
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens minus six at hard Rock Bet right now.

576
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: Unfortunately I bet him at six and a half, but

577
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: we are on them. We are on the Ravens. That

578
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,239
Speaker 1: is our brass Balls Better of the Week sponsored by

579
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: hard Rep Bet. I have the New York Giants plus

580
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: seven and a half at Philly they are actually three touchdown,

581
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: four touchdown games that I thought about putting in here.

582
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 1: You mentioned the Carolina Panthers are seven and a half

583
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 1: at the bill with the hosting the Bills. Miami is

584
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: seven and a half at Atlanta. Cleveland is seven at

585
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: New England. You brought up the Panthers in Sharp Calls.

586
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 1: I went with this one because it feels like the

587
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 1: best combination of pointspread value, getting the hook, situational value

588
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: because it's the divisional game, and matchup value. I don't

589
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on any of them anymore, to

590
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: be honest, so I would like a little bit of clarity.

591
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 2: What do you mean, like, why are the pros betting

592
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 2: the Giants? No?

593
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: No, no, no. I mean like, if we were to

594
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 1: have to include one of these four in our final five,

595
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: I lean to the Giants. I think I'm off the

596
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: Panthers for the same reason the wise guys that you

597
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: said in the Sharp Calls, and we hadn't discussed this.

598
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: I just don't trust Andy Dalton. This is a really

599
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: good running team, and I think it's a really good

600
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: running team because of the things Bryce Young can do

601
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 1: in the pocket and Andy Young, Andy Dalt and can't

602
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 1: do those things, so and a little bit concerned that

603
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: the Bills are getting some key players back or haven't

604
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: been with them all season on the defensive side of

605
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: the ball who could help with the rush. So I

606
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 1: walked away from that one, and I think I'm most

607
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: leaning into the Giants at seven and a half.

608
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,239
Speaker 3: Okay, I got some good stats for that Bill's game.

609
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 3: We can talk about this Giants game for now. I

610
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 3: probably come around more to the Giants side here and

611
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: why guys are pitching it. I'm finally just simply having

612
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 3: the Eagles and my money line round Robin and I

613
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 3: can eat that seven and just get a seven and

614
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 3: a half by one of the Giants. You're right, it's

615
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 3: probably still too inflative of a number in a matchup

616
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 3: that the Eagles just haven't proven they can close teams out.

617
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 2: They haven't played two good halfs of football this year.

618
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 3: They just it's been there Achilles Hill all season, no doubt.

619
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: Could they beat this Giants team by twenty Yes, this

620
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 3: is a Giants team that lost their number one receiver,

621
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: and as dominant as their power shruss has been, you

622
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 3: would think the Eagles with that offensive line to be

623
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 3: able to get some stops against those guys, but it

624
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 3: egles Line's hurt, like we've talked about that. Also, Line

625
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 3: is just injured. Yeah, the main reason Saquon can't get going.

626
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 3: So I agree Giants and of all those guys, I

627
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,399
Speaker 3: agree with you, that's probably the best one.

628
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: But it's also just be cautious.

629
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 3: It's like, it's, uh, this Giants team, we saw what

630
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 3: can happen with them, right like in that Saints game,

631
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 3: what was a five straight turnovers? We know we're been into.

632
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 3: We've been into a rookie quarterback on the road in

633
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 3: a divisional game with an offense that he's making it work.

634
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,839
Speaker 3: But like we said, they're they're just they're not real

635
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 3: weapons on the outside. So yeah, there's there is some

636
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 3: hesitation for me. But game wide value.

637
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:51,959
Speaker 1: Of those four games that I mentioned that are all

638
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 1: seven to seven and a half, Giants, Eagles, Bill's Panthers,

639
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: Brown's New England, and Miami at Atlanta, if we had

640
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 1: to put one of those in, I'm worried. We're like,

641
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 1: I think we have four games we love and I

642
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 1: think we're struggling to find a fifth of those four games.

643
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 1: Would you put any of those in?

644
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 3: I mean, I like, like I talk of the Patriots

645
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 3: is a horrible spot. I having a crazy stat about

646
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 3: that game too. It's the trap of traps. I still

647
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,959
Speaker 3: like the Patriots. I just I can't find I can't

648
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 3: find the points for the rounds. So that's a game

649
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 3: we're definitely gonna put in and lose, no doubt about Patriots.

650
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 1: But for the record, I haven't bet any of these

651
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 1: games yet.

652
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 2: So if we want to take your renny, you want

653
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 2: to give you my stat for that Panthers.

654
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, give it to me. Yeah.

655
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 3: It's what we've been talking about at nauseum about these

656
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 3: home dogs early in the year. When it crosses seven,

657
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,479
Speaker 3: it's you can say it's lazy, and we just keep

658
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: cashing it.

659
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 2: It keeps hitting.

660
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 3: It's just it is what it is with the trend,

661
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: and it's all about the spot where these home teams

662
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 3: are under valued. There's a road favorite like the Bills

663
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 3: that are being priced like there were last year. Now

664
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 3: let's just dive into the trend. So in the first

665
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 3: nine games of the year, Okay, what are we in chat?

666
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 2: Is Week eight?

667
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 3: Yes, they fit this home teams seven plus points seven

668
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 3: points or more, forty and eleven against the spread at home.

669
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 3: So we've hit this a bunch of times already this season.

670
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 3: It's worked for us. We did the Giants. What was

671
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 3: that two weeks ago against the Eagles on that Thursday game?

672
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 2: Yeah? Was that?

673
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 3: No, I don't know if the Bengals were home. Was

674
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 3: that Bengals game in Green Bay? I forget with Flacco,

675
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 3: but they were like a ten point dog.

676
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: That might have been the Bengals game was I can't remember.

677
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 3: I think it was the only time we've lost this

678
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 3: bet is with Tennessee. So that's how good it's been

679
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 3: where we bet these bad teams. It comes through now.

680
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 3: I looked in these stats Josh Josh Allen after a

681
00:36:56,320 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 3: bye week in his career eight and no up, So

682
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: this is a no brainer going to be in our

683
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 3: money on round robin all the auto spot for Alan. Historically,

684
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 3: he's performed really well in these type of matchups, and

685
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 3: I thought it was interesting the stat from our guys

686
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 3: at bet Labs, and this also includes our Broncos. Panthers

687
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 3: and Broncos both won three straight games by seven points

688
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 3: or less over the last decade. Teams that fit that

689
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 3: description thirty and forty six against the spreads of forty percent. Okay,

690
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,919
Speaker 3: not egregious, but when they're listed as an underdog, which

691
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 3: our Panthers are here, they are ten and twenty six

692
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,760
Speaker 3: straight up, twelve twenty three and one against the spread.

693
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 2: So that's bad exactly.

694
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: Those are both bad things for.

695
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 3: Us, well, mainly for the Panthers, a little bit for

696
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 3: the Broncos, but really for the Panthers. Where it's like,

697
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 3: I've been trying to find ways for me to stay

698
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 3: away from this one, and like anything, any.

699
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 2: Lazy static I had a buddy sent me a stat.

700
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 2: It was like, yeah, the Bills.

701
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 3: Franchise history three you o spreading straight up against this

702
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 3: Panthers team. Again, useless stat, but I love it because

703
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, maybe I can avoid this game. So,

704
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 3: like you said, Bills are getting a bunch of guys

705
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 3: back healthy.

706
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 2: I was going to all to play this one.

707
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 3: But Andy Dalton one in five ats is a backup

708
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 3: coming in and being a starter is one win one

709
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,879
Speaker 3: cover Chad probably against the Raiders they like won by

710
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:23,839
Speaker 3: like twenty points on this horrible Panthers team.

711
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,240
Speaker 2: Then he lost four straight.

712
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 1: So that's right.

713
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 3: I'm glad we can avoid this one. Uh, We'll have

714
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 3: the Bills and our money line around Robin It maybe

715
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 3: throwing a couple of teasers, but yeah, this is uh

716
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 3: I thought was a panther spot. Thought the trends liked

717
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 3: it more I read into it. It's it's it's become

718
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 3: more of a bill spot.

719
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 1: Let's let's talk about a game that we know we're

720
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 1: gonna like San Francisco at Houston. Houston is a one

721
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,240
Speaker 1: point favorite at hard Rock bat. This was Simon says.

722
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 1: I hope people got it because of a lot of

723
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 1: other places. It's moved to one and a half and

724
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: the Niners had even more injuries on defense on Sunday.

725
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 1: On Sunday and brutal. I think they're having a really

726
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 1: hard time getting pressure without Bosa and that has been

727
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: the biggest prop for CJ. Stroud. We saw a lot

728
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: of that against the Seahawks. So I'm feeling more and

729
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,720
Speaker 1: more comfortable, even though we've got a flipped line here

730
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: just for a moment on the Texans, and as you

731
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: mentioned in sharp Calls, so give me your take on

732
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 1: why we're still feel uncomfortable.

733
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 2: I don't think you but this is something real crazy there.

734
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 2: H Yeah.

735
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,919
Speaker 1: For so I'm walking away well.

736
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 2: It's always funny.

737
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: Like I'm out about and I ran into a couple

738
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 3: of buddies who do listen to our show, and they're like, like, dude,

739
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 3: are you the sucker for taking a two and four

740
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 3: Houston team against a five or two Foreigners team in

741
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 3: their favorite Like isn't this an easy bet on the

742
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 3: fort I'm like, when you say something like that to me,

743
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: makes me be more confident on Houston where it's like

744
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 3: I'm hoping more people think like he is, where they're

745
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: overlooking a lot of underlying stuff with his Foreigners team,

746
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 3: and like you said, the injuries are the biggest one.

747
00:39:56,160 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 3: But to me, it's the trends Shanahan, whatever it is

748
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 3: he's moving in this era that he's his teams just

749
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,359
Speaker 3: don't get up for games after wins since twenty twenty three.

750
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 3: So like late December twenty twenty three, forty nine ers

751
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 3: one and thirteen against the spread after a straight up win,

752
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 3: and they're failing to cover those spreads by seven and

753
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 3: a half points.

754
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 2: So that's that's not just a.

755
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 3: Little little bit of data that's over two years now,

756
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 3: Like twenty twenty three December, that was a long time ago,

757
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 3: just a different team after these wins in the sense

758
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 3: that they just don't cover. Like the fact that they

759
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 3: get over valued by the general public after wins just

760
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 3: shows that's happening time and time again in the market.

761
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 3: So I really like that stat for Houston, and I

762
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 3: immediately thought to myself, Okay, well, let's dive into what

763
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 3: Chad talked about, right the defense. How are they been

764
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 3: and how how's the fortyin ers offense against really good defenses?

765
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 3: And you know, their last nine games against defenses again,

766
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,760
Speaker 3: this is a Shanan stat again, defense that allowed seventeen

767
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 3: points or less per game, which is that's the Houston's

768
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 3: bread and butter right now.

769
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 2: They're a great defensive team.

770
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 3: Shane hands one to eight against the spread on the

771
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 3: road or neutral sites since twenty twenty two. He's actually

772
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 3: lost five straight in this exact spot. So already kind

773
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 3: of loved Houston here because what Chad talked about, there's

774
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 3: a ton of injuries this forign ires team, and I

775
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 3: felt like this was a get right spot for Houston

776
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 3: that just got embarrassed on a short week. This is

777
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 3: kind of the perfect recipe of them to get that

778
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 3: taste out of their mouth. Move on to the next week,

779
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 3: and this Foreign hours team now with all the unknown

780
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 3: of Purty and a bank dub mac Jones, and we

781
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,760
Speaker 3: still we don't know who the quarterback is for this week.

782
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 3: I just think there's so much going on now, this

783
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 3: Foreign Inners team them getting to be them being five

784
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 3: and three with all they've gone through, that makes more

785
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:48,439
Speaker 3: sense than this Houston team totally laying another egg at

786
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 3: home here and the forty andres moved to six and two.

787
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 3: This feels like a bad spot plus four and I

788
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 3: ers team. On the flip side, Houston their defense, this

789
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 3: should be a great match for them in the sense

790
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 3: that they have two limited quarterbacks. They have two really

791
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 3: good ed rushers on their team, and like we said

792
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 3: that that defense they put them in the spot to

793
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 3: win against the Seahawks. The CJ just screwed us over

794
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,919
Speaker 3: and chat talked about it. CJ has no pass rush fear.

795
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 3: That tends to be when he shines. So I'm glad

796
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 3: you've come around this texta team. I know it feels gross.

797
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 3: I get one on Tuesday. You were like, I hate this,

798
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 3: but it just feels like it's a number you have

799
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 3: to play in a spot we have to bet.

800
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's you know, like none of us

801
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 1: are immune in recency bias and so tough. It takes

802
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 1: a minute. It takes a minute, especially four hours, you know,

803
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 1: I know it's really hard. Yeah, speaking really hard. New

804
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 1: York Jets plus six and a half at Cincinnati. I've

805
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 1: been trying to avoid this one. I mean, like, we're

806
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: gonna have to find five bests that we love. And

807
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 1: it makes no sense that the Bengals are six and

808
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: a half point favorites over anyone. If we know Tyrad

809
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,399
Speaker 1: Taylor is starting on Sunday and we still have forty

810
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: eight hours to truly understand if he is, it feels

811
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 1: like it might have to make it into one of

812
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: our favorites. Five weeks of the year, the Jets played

813
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 1: struggling or bad defenses. In the Steelers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bucks,

814
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: and Bills average twenty three points a game. The Bengals

815
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 1: have allowed fewer than twenty seven points once this season.

816
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 1: It is just a dreadful, dreadful, dreadful defense. It's the

817
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: kind of defense that might be Aaron Aaron Glenn and

818
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 1: Jets proof, you know what I mean. And so.

819
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm not gonna waste people's time on it.

820
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,919
Speaker 3: But if if you want to, just if you don't

821
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 3: like any of our other bets and you were like,

822
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 3: what's the grossest bet that I have to bet this week?

823
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 3: Because it's a long term winner. This Jets is a

824
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 3: long term winner. I know doesn't feel like it, but

825
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 3: it's a unique spot. It's I mean, there's tons of stats,

826
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 3: like teams that are owned for like they are and

827
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 3: they go on the road, they tend to cover these

828
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 3: exact games. It's only the only other team owned four

829
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 3: this year that's gone on the road and covered was

830
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 3: the Titans. The Titans did it, So that's what I mean, Like,

831
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 3: it's usually a spot for these teams. So I mean

832
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 3: the Titans could do it. Goddamn Jets, you gotta do

833
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:56,359
Speaker 3: it as well.

834
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 2: But I'm with you.

835
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 3: I'm not going to force this into our contest. I'm

836
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 3: not gonna make people bet this, but yes, I will

837
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 3: be on the Jets. We will put them on money

838
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 3: line round robin and yeah, I hate it, two people,

839
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 3: that's gross.

840
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 1: We're just gonna do it where it's just I feel

841
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 1: like it's happening. I feel like we can't avoid it.

842
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 1: I feel like it's the beacon that is drawing us

843
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay at New Orleans. You mentioned this in

844
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: sharp Calls that number is down to three and a

845
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 1: half at hard Rock beat and half. So's it's gone

846
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: down two full points now. And wow, look you mentioned

847
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: Baker is a little bit banged up. We know Mike

848
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: Evans is out Godwin a Mecca Buca was not at

849
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: full speed in that game the other night. I just

850
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 1: don't trust the Saints. I feel like everyone is trying

851
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 1: to force the Saints down my throat, like we have

852
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:49,720
Speaker 1: to be betting on the Saints and they're a wise

853
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: guy team, and like I hear it all. Spencer isn't

854
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 1: as bad as a record, and he's really good against pressure,

855
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: and he hasn't made turnover worthy plays. They're really unlucky.

856
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 1: I hear it all. And like we see the imbalance

857
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: between the bets and the money. The Bucks are getting

858
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the bets and the Saints are getting

859
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the money. Like it is one the

860
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:17,919
Speaker 1: sharp side the Saints. We've seen the activity. We've seen

861
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: the number move huge reverse line movement, meaning that the

862
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:24,800
Speaker 1: bets are coming in on the box and the money

863
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:30,280
Speaker 1: and the line is moving in the direction of the Saints. Fishy.

864
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, again, it doesn't mean it's the right side just

865
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 2: because the pros are on it. But it's like I said,

866
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 2: you should have grabbed the four and after to grab

867
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 2: the five and a half. Yes, that was going to

868
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,280
Speaker 2: be the pro side, just because it's.

869
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 3: A number that is inflated, and just because of the injuries,

870
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 3: like you Chad said it, God no, Godwin, no Mike Evans,

871
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 3: no Bucky Irving, like Meccha Buka is not full strength.

872
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:56,319
Speaker 3: That's a big deal. Like those things do matter. The

873
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 3: thing you can hang your head on. It's it's Baker

874
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 3: versus Spencer rat and rather and the Saints team. They

875
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 3: have not been good at home, Like even this year,

876
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 3: they have not really been covered. You know, I thought

877
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 3: they played well at home. Surprisingly they have not been

878
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 3: covering at home. So you're right, probably overvalued by professionals.

879
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:16,400
Speaker 3: I talked a little bit about it, like how weird

880
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 3: of this Bucks team is like minus one point differential,

881
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 3: and Evan Admers had an amazing stat about it. Basically,

882
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 3: they're the first team since twenty twenty two to be

883
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 3: eight games in with a winning percentage like that and

884
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 3: a negative point differential the other two teams where the

885
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 3: Browns and the Bills, neither of them end up covering

886
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,360
Speaker 3: in this exact spot in this week, because it's like

887
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 3: it's just simply a team that plays close under overvalued

888
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 3: by the market. That makes sense Baker's career. I've talked

889
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 3: about it, like them as a dog. Always feel better

890
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,320
Speaker 3: taking Baker as a dog. Yeah, really hate taking Baker

891
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 3: as a favorite, let alone a favorite against the visional opponents.

892
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 3: In his career, he's played twenty one games against the

893
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 3: opponents as a favorite. He is seven and fourteen against

894
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:06,919
Speaker 3: the spread. So since he's been drafted, of the eighty

895
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 3: two starters in the league, he is the worst win

896
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 3: percentage against divisional foes as a favorite. So just understand

897
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 3: what you're betting in two year. If you are taking

898
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 3: the buck side, it's not a good number. It's not

899
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 3: a good side. Like Chad saying, this Saints team, no

900
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 3: one's gonna feel good betting them, right, they have not

901
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 3: Probably You're probably right. They do not deserve to be

902
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 3: getting this much line movement. It is now down to

903
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 3: three and a half at hard Rock. I'm not going

904
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: to force that in like to me four and a half,

905
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 3: five and a half. I felt confident there. I won't

906
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 3: chase this number.

907
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 2: But I still think if you want to bet this,

908
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,479
Speaker 2: I don't think it's moved enough. I have it at three.

909
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 3: You're still getting a good number technically on this this

910
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 3: Saints team, but I need every point. I need every

911
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 3: point if I'm gonna bet Spencer Rattler. And it was

912
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 3: the same reason last week I didn't force them in

913
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 3: with us against that Bears team because it's like it's

914
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,799
Speaker 3: it was Spencer Ratler outdoors in the elements. I'm just

915
00:47:57,880 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 3: not gonna get there.

916
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's not great for Baker and make

917
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 2: a sure career with the books as a favorite on

918
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: the road.

919
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 3: He's four and five against the spread, So it's it's

920
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 3: not a good bigger spot. That's what I'm trying to

921
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 3: get people understanding. You just don't don't force us one

922
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 3: in this week. We said it's a short week, not

923
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 3: many options. Either play the Saints or don't play this

924
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:18,359
Speaker 3: number at all.

925
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,320
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926
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933
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:43,360
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934
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,319
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960
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:03,040
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961
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 2: Do you want to doubt that Patriots Browns game?

962
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 1: Or No, I don't know what to do with it

963
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 1: because it feels like the spot where we should be

964
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 1: completely walking away if we know better from from the Browns,

965
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 1: because it's not where they are. It's like we found

966
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 1: a winning formula.

967
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 2: No, No, I'm on New England, aren't you on New England?

968
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:21,759
Speaker 3: With me.

969
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. So I am on New England.

970
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: I don't know how the Browns are getting any points.

971
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 1: Like Dylan Garabidel is not an NFL quarterback. That's it.

972
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:35,280
Speaker 3: I saw this amazing statu. It goes to the Patriots

973
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 3: and the Bears, and it's basically about these teams in

974
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 3: these four plus game ats win streaks like straight up

975
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 3: and against the spread. So those teams that didn't This

976
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 3: is again Evan Abrams amazing stat These are those the

977
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 3: exact teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and

978
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,840
Speaker 3: now they're on four plus game winning streaks straight up

979
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 3: and against the spread, and this exact spot they are

980
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 3: fourteen twenty six and one against the spread. Since twenty

981
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 3: two twenty two, they are one in fourteen against the

982
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 3: spread in the spot. So it is like, I know

983
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,919
Speaker 3: exactly we're walking into betting this Patriots team.

984
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 1: We're stepping into it, and like to be clear, so

985
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 1: like I shouldn't say I bet it. I have not

986
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 1: other than the Panthers.

987
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:20,319
Speaker 2: I took that six and they were six and a half.

988
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:21,399
Speaker 2: A couple of books I took you.

989
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 1: That I like, I have not bet the Falcons. I

990
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:30,240
Speaker 1: have not bet the Giants, and I have not bet

991
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 1: the Patriots, and I'm not sure that I will. The

992
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 1: only bet you just said to make you feel better, then

993
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:37,919
Speaker 1: well hold on. The only the only game I've bet

994
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,319
Speaker 1: of those four seven to seven and a half point

995
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,399
Speaker 1: spreads is the Panthers, and that's only because I bet

996
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:45,439
Speaker 1: it in the summer when I thought the line would

997
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 1: be much shorter, because I was so in on the

998
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 1: Panthers go ahead.

999
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:51,760
Speaker 3: So just this year, this feels like a Vrabel stat

1000
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 3: the Patriots when they grew up by a touchdown remorse

1001
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 3: of six plus points. They are five and oh straight

1002
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 3: up and against the spread this season.

1003
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:03,320
Speaker 1: In this way, I bet you bet Vrabel exactly.

1004
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 3: That's why I'm like thinking this game, I'm trying to

1005
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 3: throw it all the numbers where it's like that that

1006
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 3: sums up the veryble type of team he's going to

1007
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 3: be this year, where it's like, if if he gets

1008
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:13,800
Speaker 3: up a lead in this game, I just how do

1009
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:14,919
Speaker 3: the Browns come back?

1010
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 2: So Chad's right, we should try to avoid this one.

1011
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 2: I don't think I'm gonna be able to.

1012
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 3: I will be shocked come Sunday morning, like I'm gonna

1013
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 3: probably bett in the Patriots my seven. I just I

1014
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 3: can't get over how to how different this Browns team

1015
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 3: is on the road and how bad of a spot

1016
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 3: is for their quarterback. So yeah, I just it's it's

1017
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 3: interesting those those trends pointing to it being a bad

1018
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 3: spot for the Patriots, but they feel a little bit

1019
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 3: like a unicorn here.

1020
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 1: Terrible Dallas at Denver, Denver, MINEUS three. Now, this was

1021
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: Chad's choice when it was three and a half. It

1022
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 1: moved in my direction basically because I move lines and

1023
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 1: so nothing really moving me off of this pick other

1024
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 1: than nightmares of bow knicks throwing into empty spots in

1025
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,080
Speaker 1: the middle of his own which he is not as

1026
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 1: good as he is against man to man and unfortunately,

1027
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:18,279
Speaker 1: Matt Iberflus loves to play zone, except for last week

1028
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 1: when he played Mando man against third and fourth string receivers.

1029
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 1: So I liked when you said the wise guys were

1030
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 1: on this because I very much wanted to be a

1031
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:32,919
Speaker 1: Broncos game.

1032
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was really confident.

1033
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:39,719
Speaker 1: I misspoke. I misspoke. I'm sorry. I bet this at three,

1034
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 1: it moved up to three and a half, and now

1035
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 1: it's back down to three. At hard Rock. Bet I apologize.

1036
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 1: I moved on.

1037
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, when we talk to you guys, really coughm this one.

1038
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 2: Really loved Denver here, Thanky not the best.

1039
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 3: Just because Chad's talked about we're backing bow Knicks, who

1040
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 3: as good he's been this year with all these crazy

1041
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 3: comfort behind wins, we're telling people to take him at

1042
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 3: minus three, minus three and a half as a favorite,

1043
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 3: Like that's not ideal for a quarterback that seems like

1044
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:14,760
Speaker 3: he can't roll these teams, Like we need him to

1045
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 3: roll Dallas because Dak's gonna get his We already talked

1046
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 3: about Dak is one of the few quarterbacks I can

1047
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 3: remember that is on an incredible run with a terrible defense.

1048
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:25,840
Speaker 3: When he's not turning the ball over, he's just playing

1049
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,879
Speaker 3: so smart. Like the biggest thing we could take away

1050
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 3: from Dak is hoping for three and outs and we

1051
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 3: have that.

1052
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:32,080
Speaker 2: We've talked about it.

1053
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 3: This Broncos front should give them real problems and you know,

1054
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 3: historical data. I talked to a lot of old, older

1055
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 3: guys who talked about you know, this is a unique

1056
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 3: spot where the Broncos tend to always own this Cowboys team.

1057
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 3: Doesn't matter who the quarterbacks are, who the coaches are

1058
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 3: you can go way back, And I was like, all right,

1059
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:49,759
Speaker 3: is that true?

1060
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 2: And I did.

1061
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 3: Look, last time Dallas beat Denver was with Troy Aikman.

1062
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 3: So it's been a rough go for Dallas historically against

1063
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:00,839
Speaker 3: this Denver team. And I think me and you are

1064
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 3: really banking on the defense. I know, Bo Nicks, we're

1065
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 3: gonna need to move the ball, We're gonna need even

1066
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 3: a score. But I like to think Sean Payne can

1067
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 3: scheme it around this terrible Dallas defense. There's gonna be

1068
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 3: plenty of options and holes. We just can't have him

1069
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 3: do what he's been doing, which is slow starts like

1070
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,799
Speaker 3: he gets he puts himselves in these holes, and then

1071
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 3: we're asking bo Nicks to throw us out of these holes,

1072
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 3: which is not a specially want to be in. So yeah,

1073
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:26,720
Speaker 3: I know, I've had a couple people send me those trends.

1074
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,799
Speaker 3: Teams that basically come from behind like they did, it's

1075
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 3: horrible for them historically the following game, right, they tend

1076
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 3: to not cover.

1077
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:37,719
Speaker 2: But me and Chad always say, there's a six percent chain.

1078
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,279
Speaker 3: It's stat on the other side of that trend, So

1079
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 3: we're just oping Bo's that thirty six percent we just

1080
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 3: need him to show up here. And it really is

1081
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 3: a bet though on that Broncos front, Like if we

1082
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 3: get pressure on Dak Tax due to have a letdown game,

1083
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 3: he's been so flawless.

1084
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 2: They you know the weapons they.

1085
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:01,720
Speaker 3: Have Dallas, this this historically should be a bad matchup

1086
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 3: for them, So pretty unique spot right. The total I

1087
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 3: believe in this one's fifty as well. Bow Knicks his

1088
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 3: career totals above forty five as a favorite.

1089
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 2: He's one three straight up and against the spread.

1090
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 3: So to prove it game for Bonnicks, you're getting a

1091
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,600
Speaker 3: bad defense, you need to put up points. This is

1092
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 3: not going to be the type of game you're going

1093
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 3: to be able to win twenty to ten, right, I

1094
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:25,640
Speaker 3: think that's going to get his So we we're betting

1095
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 3: on Bonex here, Chab, I will stay with you. I

1096
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 3: will still back this Brocks team, especially it minus three.

1097
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:31,720
Speaker 3: I think that's a great number.

1098
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:34,960
Speaker 1: It makes me nervous. I'm not gonna lie, but come in.

1099
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 1: I'm totally in Green Bay. At Pittsburgh the last game

1100
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 1: we're discussing purely a play, purely a play. It's Pittsburgh

1101
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 1: plus three, purely a play on the Steelers as dogs

1102
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 1: at home. We do like what we've seen from Pittsburgh

1103
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 1: as a defense now that everyone has returned from injury,

1104
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 1: especially Alex Heighsmith. Why do you like me?

1105
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 2: We know what happened last year against the Bengals, but

1106
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:55,799
Speaker 2: you know.

1107
00:56:56,400 --> 00:57:00,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, but generally, generally, I also know that's.

1108
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 2: What the people are gonna be, Like, what the hell

1109
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:02,880
Speaker 2: is this guy talking about?

1110
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:06,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, like people like when we said, like when when

1111
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 1: we said the Bears would be eleven point favorites on

1112
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 1: the road with an eighteen point swing. I'm not a

1113
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 1: buyer of this Packers team. Like, they just don't seem

1114
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:21,040
Speaker 1: to be able to be as great as their individual

1115
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:22,959
Speaker 1: talent right now. I don't know what's going on there,

1116
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:26,400
Speaker 1: but this is the Robert mc thomlins spot. That's it.

1117
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: That's all we're betting here.

1118
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 2: Again, one of us watched the Ravens play Houston. All

1119
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 2: of us were out apple pickers.

1120
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 3: Oh my god, oh why they they're gallibant and it's

1121
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 3: very bizarre. Yeah, no brainer. We're never gonna avoid this game.

1122
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:45,280
Speaker 3: We're gonna get burned by it, but historically we won't

1123
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 3: like long.

1124
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 1: Term burned by everything.

1125
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:49,680
Speaker 2: This week, well, it just feels like it feels too easy.

1126
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 3: I don't know to you, but it's like, I can't

1127
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 3: believe I'm still able to get Pittsburgh here at three

1128
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 3: and a half.

1129
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: It just feels bizarre.

1130
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 3: I don't know who's betting in Green Bay mins three

1131
00:57:57,400 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 3: and a half other than smart professionals, because the public,

1132
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 3: they're taking the threes. They're happy to take the minus threes,

1133
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 3: and on this Packers team. So what we really have

1134
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 3: to dive into is just what we talked a little

1135
00:58:08,440 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 3: bit about with Tomlin. After his defense gets embarrassed, he

1136
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 3: bounces back. You know, the numbers prove that out after

1137
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:19,480
Speaker 3: allowing thirty plus points Tomlin's defenses twenty nine twelve and

1138
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 3: one against the spreads seventy one percent.

1139
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 2: That's insane. Let the greatest of all time look at

1140
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 2: you work when they're at home after a bad defensive

1141
00:58:27,640 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 2: a performance.

1142
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 3: Like that twenty one eight and one seventy two percent

1143
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 3: under Tomlin and against the spread.

1144
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 2: So it's like, all right, those are stats who are

1145
00:58:37,120 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 2: looking for that.

1146
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:40,320
Speaker 3: That proves out our point that he gets his defenses

1147
00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 3: up after those type of games. And a lot of

1148
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 3: it's being made in the media about Rogers playing against

1149
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 3: his former team. The trends actually don't point to that

1150
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 3: being a good spot. Basically every quarterback that's played their

1151
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:57,840
Speaker 3: former team failed to cover except Drew Brees, who covered

1152
00:58:57,960 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 3: and beat the Chargers. So I guess historically it shows

1153
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 3: that these guys getting their own heads. It's a a

1154
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 3: big moment, and it's tough for them to just play

1155
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 3: the game, not overthink things and get emotional playing their

1156
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 3: former team. But we also have some nice historical stuff

1157
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 3: on our side. The Packers just aren't good in Pittsburgh.

1158
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,480
Speaker 3: Their last six games are owned six the last fifty years,

1159
00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:25,160
Speaker 3: So last time they won was in nineteen seventy. And

1160
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 3: you know, it's crazy to think Pittsburgh the last time

1161
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 3: they started that run a beating green Bay at home,

1162
00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:38,439
Speaker 3: it was Terry Bradshaw beating you know, a Bart star

1163
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 3: led team.

1164
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:41,400
Speaker 2: So it's been a long time.

1165
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 3: You're being green Bay, you're betting on something that hasn't

1166
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 3: happened in fifty years.

1167
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 2: People.

1168
00:59:45,560 --> 00:59:47,800
Speaker 3: So I love all those trends at point to Tomlin,

1169
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 3: I love that we talked about with the defense, they

1170
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:52,480
Speaker 3: seem to get right in these exact spots, and I

1171
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 3: just think our view of Green Bay is right that

1172
00:59:54,680 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 3: they're just something's wrong with them. They're not fully formed either.

1173
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 3: The offense is just a little off. They're defense still

1174
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 3: isn't right.

1175
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 2: I think we're getting a good value here on this

1176
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh team that we talked about.

1177
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:08,560
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed last week. Their defense got embarrassed. Tomlin

1178
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:10,920
Speaker 3: usually has those guys bounced back on the spot. So

1179
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 3: trends love it. We love it, can't avoid it. Gonna

1180
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 3: hammer this one probably be one of my bigger beats

1181
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:17,560
Speaker 3: this week.

1182
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about that. I will review where we

1183
01:00:20,360 --> 01:00:22,280
Speaker 1: stand heading into Sunday at the end of the show.

1184
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 1: But you're bringing up your biggest bets. What are Simon's

1185
01:00:25,800 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 1: biggest bets?

1186
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 2: Pull up bose pants and be a man.

1187
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 3: Honestly, I'm not going too crazy yet this week because

1188
01:00:32,880 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 3: of all the unknowns with injuries and stuff, like, they're

1189
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 3: going a pretty big position in Houston. Just because I

1190
01:00:37,960 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 3: was worried that numbers is gonna shoot up to two

1191
01:00:39,400 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 3: and a half, it really is held pretty strong at

1192
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:42,440
Speaker 3: its point.

1193
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 2: I'll get there.

1194
01:00:44,000 --> 01:00:46,960
Speaker 3: On Pittsburgh, I'm really gonna be doing these moneyline favorites,

1195
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:50,959
Speaker 3: like I just don't see a world where the Patriots loose.

1196
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 2: I don't see a world where the Bills lose to

1197
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:57,080
Speaker 2: Andy Dolton, Like the Bills are super desperate.

1198
01:00:57,200 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 3: So this week, just like last week I talked about

1199
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,040
Speaker 3: through all out of those favorites together, I think we

1200
01:01:02,080 --> 01:01:03,760
Speaker 3: went five to one or four and one on the

1201
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 3: favorite money line. Like it's just it's how it is

1202
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 3: right now. People like you can say we're getting lucky, Like, yeah,

1203
01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 3: I did. I feel like I got lucky with Denver's

1204
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:14,680
Speaker 3: money line. Yeah, green Bay's money line, Like that game

1205
01:01:14,720 --> 01:01:16,720
Speaker 3: came down to a fourth and two where green Bay

1206
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:18,520
Speaker 3: went for and they got it and scored a touchdown.

1207
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 3: Like I know, it's just the way the league is now.

1208
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:25,400
Speaker 3: The chalk keeps winning. So I get why you don't

1209
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 3: love the spreads this week. To me, it just feels

1210
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:30,040
Speaker 3: like the books have gotten really sharp with these lines.

1211
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 3: So you know, Denver minus three, I'm gonna take a

1212
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 3: position on it will be one of my bigger bets now.

1213
01:01:34,800 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 3: I much rather have a ton of money on Hurt's

1214
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:40,800
Speaker 3: money line and Josh Allen's money line than Boone Nicks

1215
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:42,880
Speaker 3: on the spread. So it is a tough week with

1216
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 3: that where it's like I just I don't trust some

1217
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:46,760
Speaker 3: of these guys, and I'm having to take positions on

1218
01:01:46,800 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 3: them just because the number is right. But to me,

1219
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 3: you know, that Ravens game, if Lamar is cleared, I'm

1220
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:56,080
Speaker 3: probably gonna take I know, Chack can't believe. I think

1221
01:01:56,080 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 3: it's a fourteen point swing, but I'm telling you, Cooper

1222
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 3: Rush is that bad. I think the more or is

1223
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 3: that big of an improvement that offense. And even if

1224
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:05,479
Speaker 3: his legs aren't fully back, his arm is good enough.

1225
01:02:05,520 --> 01:02:09,680
Speaker 3: Now say Flowers, Isaiah likely all those pieces there. I

1226
01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 3: think it's a It's a great matchup for this Ravens

1227
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 3: team against a Bears team that you know, incredible round

1228
01:02:15,280 --> 01:02:17,160
Speaker 3: by this Bears team, But eventually it's gonna catch them.

1229
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:19,439
Speaker 3: They just can't keep covering these games, can they chat?

1230
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 3: So I I hate that we've missed that. I know

1231
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 3: it's your team, but I have to sell the Bears

1232
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:24,800
Speaker 3: at some point.

1233
01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 1: I feel like, oh, I'm there, I'm totally there. All right,

1234
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 1: let's talk about our before we get to the favorite. Probably,

1235
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 1: let's talk about our underdog parlay. My dog blocks your dog,

1236
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:42,160
Speaker 1: Your dog blocks my dog.

1237
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 2: Steelers, Steelers, Jets.

1238
01:02:47,320 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 1: Jets get the Saints.

1239
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:53,439
Speaker 2: This is where it gets tough.

1240
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is where it gets a little tricky.

1241
01:02:55,880 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 2: I mean, of course once seven and oh on Thursday

1242
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 2: night games? Did you see that stupid stat? Oh? Really, yeah,

1243
01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 2: it's incredible.

1244
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 1: I don't love doing a Thursday night game like people

1245
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:08,720
Speaker 1: can't true it is plus one.

1246
01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 2: I want to get a little taste of that one.

1247
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 1: How about the Giants, I can't.

1248
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 2: See it, but I'll take the value. Right, it's plus

1249
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:17,160
Speaker 2: three thirty. That's a good number.

1250
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 3: I don't think they've beaten Eagles and back to back,

1251
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:22,960
Speaker 3: so beat him twice in a season since two thousand

1252
01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 3: and seven.

1253
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 1: Carolina can't get there.

1254
01:03:28,240 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 2: I just can't.

1255
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 3: I mean, for we're being honest, we should put the

1256
01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 3: Bears in case Lamar doesn't play.

1257
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good idea.

1258
01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:38,160
Speaker 3: Okay, Like again, I have nothing on their number, but

1259
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:40,880
Speaker 3: at plus two thirty, if it comes out like people,

1260
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:43,080
Speaker 3: Chad thinks it's crazy people in the showm I think

1261
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:43,479
Speaker 3: it's crazy.

1262
01:03:43,520 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 2: I just that's how low I am.

1263
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 3: A Cooper Rush I just could not get over how

1264
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,880
Speaker 3: horrible his film has been since he's been a raven.

1265
01:03:50,040 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 3: So if I was at I just took the other backup.

1266
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:55,760
Speaker 3: Like just he is doing zero for their offense. He's

1267
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 3: just horrible. So yeah, that's that's that, Like could easily

1268
01:04:00,000 --> 01:04:03,919
Speaker 3: flip if it's not. Lamar could easily see that become

1269
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:06,960
Speaker 3: a plus plus three plus three and a half Ravens.

1270
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 1: Line favorites parlay Patriots Bills, Chiefs.

1271
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: Take the Chiefs down to minus five and a half

1272
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 3: or minus six and a half, Colts take the Colts

1273
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 3: down to minus five and a half minus six and

1274
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:28,560
Speaker 3: a half. Gotta put Denver in we both believe in them.

1275
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, so okay, Pats Bills, Chiefs that are not line

1276
01:04:34,680 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 1: of five and a half six and a half, Colts

1277
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 1: that are not lining outline of five and a half

1278
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:42,520
Speaker 1: six and a half, and then Denver. That is our favorites.

1279
01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 1: Parlay again the underdog parlay Steelers Jets, Saints Giants. No,

1280
01:04:50,040 --> 01:04:53,280
Speaker 1: who do we say Steelers Jets? Do we say Giants?

1281
01:04:54,280 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 2: No? We did put Giants in the plus three thirty.

1282
01:04:57,480 --> 01:04:59,440
Speaker 1: Steelers jetge Saints Giants.

1283
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:05,120
Speaker 3: And then for survivor, don't hate Patriots this week, don't.

1284
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:08,240
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm not gonna do it personally just because

1285
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:11,240
Speaker 3: for my contest, I still have the Colts, and I

1286
01:05:11,280 --> 01:05:13,200
Speaker 3: just I'm trying to go super safe, so survivor.

1287
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:19,720
Speaker 2: I am going Colts. Don't hate Patriots. And you know, obviously, if.

1288
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 3: You're a wild child, you could do Cincinnati Bengals and

1289
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:23,880
Speaker 3: the Flacco.

1290
01:05:24,040 --> 01:05:25,640
Speaker 2: But I just I can't get there.

1291
01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:27,800
Speaker 3: I know some pros that are doing it because they're like,

1292
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 3: what am I gonna use the Bengals again? I just

1293
01:05:30,520 --> 01:05:32,640
Speaker 3: I can't. I cannot do it. I cannot trust Flacco.

1294
01:05:33,560 --> 01:05:35,080
Speaker 1: Who are you doing for Sharper Square?

1295
01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 2: Uh? I mean, I guess I gotta do. I gotta

1296
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 2: take Pittsburgh.

1297
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 3: Give me the Steelers plus three or three and a half,

1298
01:05:47,680 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 3: whatever I can get, all.

1299
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 1: Right, So Steelers for you there. I am going to

1300
01:05:53,280 --> 01:06:01,439
Speaker 1: take a ton of options here an ugly week.

1301
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 2: I love it, though it's so.

1302
01:06:04,480 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 1: Ugly, like I might have to double up. I think

1303
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:09,760
Speaker 1: I have to go with Denver.

1304
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:14,880
Speaker 2: Don't do that. Don't put your eggs on one basket.

1305
01:06:14,880 --> 01:06:16,439
Speaker 2: Why don't you do the Giants? You like them? Seven

1306
01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:23,919
Speaker 2: and a half? All right, let me double down, don't

1307
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:24,280
Speaker 2: do it.

1308
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:30,480
Speaker 1: You know what I'm gonna do. It's crazy, but I'm

1309
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:31,200
Speaker 1: feeling lucky.

1310
01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:36,600
Speaker 2: Okay, New York Jets taking the Jets six and a half.

1311
01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 1: I'm doing it.

1312
01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:38,800
Speaker 2: I love it.

1313
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:41,720
Speaker 1: Look at you New York Jets Sharp versus Square, and

1314
01:06:41,760 --> 01:06:43,600
Speaker 1: You're taking the Steelers at three and a half. I'm

1315
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:46,000
Speaker 1: taking the Jets at six and a half. That's how

1316
01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:51,840
Speaker 1: we roll on this show. What a crazy, crazy day.

1317
01:06:52,240 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.

1318
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:58,160
Speaker 1: We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning.

1319
01:06:58,240 --> 01:07:00,800
Speaker 1: Lease drop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon

1320
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 1: as we make utterly human decisions and regret the rest

1321
01:07:04,120 --> 01:07:05,959
Speaker 1: of the day. We will be back on Sharper Square

1322
01:07:06,000 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 1: YouTube Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap all

1323
01:07:09,440 --> 01:07:12,480
Speaker 1: that misery. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square

1324
01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:14,880
Speaker 1: like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also download us

1325
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:18,240
Speaker 1: some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,

1326
01:07:18,360 --> 01:07:21,320
Speaker 1: use five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

1327
01:07:21,480 --> 01:07:25,240
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you,