1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 2: The White House threatens to veto the Republican Israeli Aid bill, 6 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 2: as the CBO now says that bill will add to 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 2: the nation's deficit. Welcome to the fastest show in politics, 8 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: as we get a first look at the fine print 9 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 2: in the Speaker's plan on Israel, even as the President 10 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 2: takes his own approach, including money for Ukraine for the border. 11 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: We'll be joined ahead by Bill Hoagland at the Bipartisan 12 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: Policy Center with analysis from our signature panel. They're with 13 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 2: us on this FED day. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: weighing in as well on the latest from Washington and Israel. 15 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: And Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. 16 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where, of course it's going 17 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,279 Speaker 2: to be all about the FED, certainly here on Bloomberg 18 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: starting in about a half hour's time, when we'll bring 19 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 2: you our special coverage of the FED meeting. The announcement 20 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: and the news conference. But we have breaking news on 21 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: Israel that I want to start with today, and I'm 22 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 2: glad you're with us here on the radio, on the satellite, 23 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: and on YouTube. You can always find us on YouTube 24 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 2: by searching Bloomberg Global News. The cameras are lit with 25 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 2: the headline on the terminal. Biden says some Americans will 26 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 2: depart Gaza today. We're just hearing this now from the 27 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,839 Speaker 2: White House, as the President says American citizens will exit 28 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 2: Gaza today and the US expects more departures tomorrow and 29 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: over the coming days. He also said save passage has 30 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 2: been secured for wounded Palestinians and for foreign nationals to 31 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 2: exit Gaza. And this is the type of headline that 32 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 2: some of his critics in his own Democratic Party have 33 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 2: been looking to see, with much more news coming out 34 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 2: of Israel and Washington. Here, the Speaker of the House, 35 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, is having lunch today with the Senate Republican Conference. 36 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: Interesting as we turn to the matter of funding, and 37 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 2: this is something we're going to talk about in a 38 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 2: moment with Bill Hoagland. We brought this to you yesterday. 39 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: Speaker of the House wants to split Israel funding from 40 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 2: the rest of the supplemental package that the President has 41 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 2: put forward, And if you listen to this show, you 42 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 2: could probably tell us by now yourself that was going 43 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 2: to include Ukraine, the border in Taiwan. Not so, says 44 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 2: the speaker who's going to bring that bill to the 45 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 2: floor tomorrow. It looks like and it is also expected 46 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: to fail, so lawmakers are weighing in now. Republicans say 47 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 2: this is a way of keeping the governments from spending 48 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 2: too much money that we heard from the CBO when 49 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 2: we learn it's actually going to add to the deficit. 50 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 2: And Senator Ben Cardon of Maryland, who's now chair of 51 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 2: the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, says, GOP is playing games 52 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 2: with the money. 53 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 3: We need to keep this together because it represents the 54 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 3: priorities that need to be done. Now, there are supplemental 55 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,959 Speaker 3: appropriations which were not planned for in the normal appropriation process. 56 00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 3: There's no need for offsets, and we got to get 57 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 3: this dumb without the political parsianship we see in the House. 58 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 2: Now that's the chair. The Republican Senator from Wyoming John Barrasso, 59 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 2: also on that committee, says, no, this is the way 60 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 2: it should be done, and more specifically, pay for it 61 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 2: by defunding the IRS. 62 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 4: I support defunding the IRS taking that money out of 63 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 4: that as a source of payment for the money to Israel. 64 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 4: I want to make sure Israel has what they need 65 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 4: to fight the war they need to fight. 66 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: So there you have it from both sides of the aisle. 67 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 2: According to the Treasury Department, If that matters to you, 68 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 2: those thousands of IRS employees will not be targeting small 69 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 2: businesses and regular Americans. In fact, we heard from the 70 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 2: IRS Commissionery yesterday said these offsets would end up costing 71 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: ninety billion dollars in fact, because of less scrutiny on 72 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 2: tax evasion at the highest levels of wealth. So much 73 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: for armed agents knocking down your door. This is where 74 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 2: we start with. Bill Hogan, Senior vice president of the 75 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 2: Bipartisan Policy Center, spent many years working on Capitol Hill. 76 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 2: Knows how the sausage is made and might be helpful 77 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: here with a reality check. Bill two questions your thought 78 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 2: number one on just putting Israel funding alone on the floor, 79 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 2: knowing that it likely doesn't have support, but too paying 80 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 2: for it with IRS funding, calling it an offset when 81 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 2: it's actually going to cost more maybe you can help 82 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 2: me rationalize this. 83 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 5: Well, thank you for having me, Joe. Again, this is 84 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 5: an area where we seems that Republicans like to go to, 85 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 5: and that is reducing the IRS budget. We've been here, 86 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 5: if you recall back in the spring, when we were 87 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 5: dealing with the debt limit, increasing the debt limit, finding offsets. Historically, 88 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 5: the scoring on this particular issue has always been that 89 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 5: if you have additional money that you provide for the 90 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 5: IRS to to carry out their responsibilities, does result in 91 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 5: an increase in revenues collected. And so I'm an old 92 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,159 Speaker 5: CBO or, so I'll be a little biased here, but 93 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 5: I think the CBO is right that if you're cutting 94 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 5: fourteen billion dollars out of the IRS budget, then you 95 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 5: shouldn't expect them the revenues that were anticipated to come in. 96 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 5: So I think this is an unfortunate situation. Literally, as 97 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 5: we speak here right now, Joe, the Senate is voting 98 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 5: on a Center Rand Paul amendment to the Senate Appropriation 99 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:37,559 Speaker 5: Bill to reduce the IRS funding and it's going to fail. 100 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 5: So I think we'll get over this. And as you 101 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 5: mentioned in your comments earlier, I think the House does 102 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 5: not have the votes to use the IRS as an offset. 103 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 5: This is an emergency. In the past, when we've had emergencies, yes, 104 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 5: we don't usually offset let's say disaster spending. And I 105 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 5: think this is a critical emergency that I'd like to 106 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 5: see it offset, but i'd like to see it offset 107 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 5: with real spending reductions as opposed to the IRS budget. 108 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 2: Okay, we'll see if that happens. I'm assuming that we 109 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 2: won't get that far with this legislation, But does the 110 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 2: Senate lead the way here then? Bill they're looking at 111 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 2: a combined appropriations bill that would include the money for 112 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 2: Ukraine that I know turns off a lot of House Republicans. 113 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 5: Well, I think we're probably headed toward a situation Joe 114 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 5: here in about two and a half weeks when we're 115 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 5: up against another possibility of a government shutdown and the 116 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 5: current Continuing Resolution runs out. I think all this is 117 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 5: going to get bunched up as it relates to that 118 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 5: next Continuing resolution around the middle of November, where we'll 119 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 5: probably have a situation where we will have both the 120 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 5: funding for Ukraine and I think Israel, but also most importantly, 121 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 5: as we keep remembering that the President's request does also 122 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:02,559 Speaker 5: include about to a similar amount about fourteen billion dollars, 123 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 5: the same amount for Israel for border security here in 124 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 5: the United States, for new border patrol agents, new immigration 125 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 5: judges and asylum officers and custom officers. So I think 126 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 5: where we're headed here is a combination getting up against 127 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 5: that deadline in November the seventeenth, when we'll see this 128 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 5: coming to a head once again. I think, yes, I 129 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 5: think the Senate's going to play a pretty big role 130 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 5: here in terms of what they send over the House. 131 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 5: I think this is going to be a major test 132 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 5: for the new Speaker, and it could lead to here 133 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 5: we go again. It could lead to a potential shutdown. 134 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 5: But I hope that we can get over this and 135 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 5: we can find a solution where we have both the 136 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 5: funding that we need here on the domestic side of 137 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 5: the equation or our border security, as well as some 138 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 5: disaster response. We keep forgetting that the President not only 139 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 5: had a request for Israel and Ukraine and border, but 140 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 5: he also had something for about a fifty five billion 141 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 5: dollars for disaster relief. We still have FEMA problems, we 142 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 5: still have such issues, are sorting with the issues around 143 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 5: the child Care Stabilization Fund. So we have a we 144 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 5: have a lot, they have a lot to do in 145 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 5: a very short amount of time. 146 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 2: I want you to picture this as we understand. The 147 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 2: Speaker of the House is attending the Senate Republican lunch today, 148 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 2: CNN reporting, who was flanked by Senators Rick Scott and 149 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 2: Ted budd on the way in and did not answer questions. 150 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 2: Does this sound like a meet and greet to you 151 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 2: or a real conversation about what you and I are 152 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 2: talking about? 153 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 5: Well, we always have the policy lunches, and I'm not there. 154 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 5: I can't say exactly what's going on. But no, I 155 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 5: think they have I think the news A lot of 156 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 5: senators who do not know the news speaker have not 157 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 5: have not met him. 158 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: This is an. 159 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 5: Opportunity at least to have an initial reaction, But I 160 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 5: think they will get down. They'll have to get down 161 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 5: to some substant discussions very quickly about where the Senate's 162 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 5: headed and where the Speaker wants to go, and what 163 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 5: they'll be able to work out between the two two 164 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 5: chambers going forward. Once again, I have to believe this 165 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 5: is going to come down to no surprise coming from 166 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 5: the Bi Parson Policy Center, that you're going to have 167 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,239 Speaker 5: to find a solution here that includes both Democrats and Republicans. 168 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 5: At the end of the day, that may cause again 169 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 5: problems for the new Speaker, as it did for mister McCarthy, 170 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 5: but this is too important of an issue not to 171 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 5: find some quick Biparson solutions providing the aid that Israel needs, 172 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,679 Speaker 5: that Ukraine needs, and our borders need. 173 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 2: We're talking with Bill Hogland at the Bipartisan Policy Center 174 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 2: and you mentioned you mentioned the word that I might 175 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 2: not have brought up otherwise, and that's shut down. But 176 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 2: it's important to note what's not going to make headlines today, Bill, 177 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 2: and that is the House Rules Committee taking up Transportation 178 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 2: and Housing Bill, an Interior Environment spending bill, along with 179 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 2: the supplemental budget request, and I know the Senate is 180 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 2: taking up minibus today. There are actually professionals who should 181 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 2: be taken seriously who are working behind the scenes to 182 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 2: do the real work of the legislature. The question is 183 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 2: can they get anything done in time? Do you think 184 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 2: this new speaker makes the idea of a shot down 185 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 2: more or less likely? 186 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 5: Well, I think the Speaker had made it very clear 187 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 5: and part of his mode of selection process was to 188 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 5: agree that they would the House would pass what we 189 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 5: call the twelve regular appropriation bills, and as you say, Joe, 190 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 5: they have passed. They still have seven bills to do, 191 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 5: the Outstanding and Transportation, Legislative Branch, Financial Securities, Interior, and Agriculture. 192 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 5: They still have to do those individual bills. And that's 193 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 5: what they're doing in the House, and I think that's 194 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 5: what the Speaker said he would do he'd passed those 195 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 5: bills individually. Difficulty is going to be that, of course, 196 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 5: that's fine, but we have a United States Senate that's 197 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 5: also trying to get its twelve bills done and it 198 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 5: has not passed any of them yet, and that's why 199 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 5: they're bundling their bills into three package, three packages of three, 200 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 5: and they'll end up, i think, probably trying to try. 201 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 5: They'll have to go to conference and work this out. 202 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 5: This is all going to come down once again to 203 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 5: another continuing resolution. I don't think there's any question that 204 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 5: we're going to have to have a continuing resolution. I 205 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 5: think the Senator has made that clear. I think even 206 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 5: the House Speaker expects they'll have to have a continuing resolution. 207 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,960 Speaker 5: And the question will be will be that at as 208 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 5: it was back on October, the first, will that be 209 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 5: at the current level which caused mister McCarthy some problems. 210 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 5: But I see they are working their best just to 211 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 5: do the basic funding that they have to do for 212 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 5: the current fiscal year that we're in, fiscal year twenty 213 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 5: four that began here a month ago. 214 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's always great to spend time with you, Bill. 215 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 2: Do you think the motion to vacate will be beefed 216 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 2: up at all? They're going to raise the threshold on 217 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 2: this or is it going to stay the same way 218 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 2: it is looming over this speaker? 219 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 5: Listen, I'm an oh Senate staffer or not a House staffer. 220 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:23,359 Speaker 5: I can't really comment on the rules of the procedures 221 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 5: in the House that much. But I have to believe, 222 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 5: having spent what twenty one days or so and the 223 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 5: chaos over in the House, that they do not want 224 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 5: to go through that again. And I think that to 225 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 5: the extent that the new Speaker can at least get 226 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 5: his twelve individual appropriation bills done and out of the way. 227 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 5: He's met at first. He's got over a first hurdle 228 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 5: here that allows him to not face the possibility of 229 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 5: another emotion to vacate. I just don't believe they want 230 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 5: to go through that again. And I could be wrong, 231 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 5: but I think that they have a speaker now, they 232 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 5: want to work with that new speaker, and we'll continue 233 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 5: to work on this. I want of them to remain 234 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 5: optimistic that we will get through this difficult time. There 235 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 5: are major issues that have to be addressed here, and 236 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 5: I hope that we can find a common ground between 237 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 5: the House and Senator over the next at least thirty 238 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 5: or forty days. 239 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 2: Bill Hoaglan, Bipartisan Policy Centers, Senior Vice President, one of 240 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 2: our next door neighbors. Almost here in downtown Washington. Great 241 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 2: to see you, Bill as we assemble our panel today. 242 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are back together Bloomberg Politics contributors. 243 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 2: Ricky sounds kind of like, you don't ask me about 244 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 2: what's going on in that crazy house. I'm a creature 245 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 2: of the Senate. But in this case, the Senate's going 246 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 2: to loom large over this process. And I wonder if 247 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 2: that's why the speaker is at that GOP luncheon today. 248 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 2: What do you think they're talking about. 249 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, look, this is a normal courtesy that would be 250 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 6: granted to any new speaker. It doesn't have much of 251 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 6: a footprint up on the Senate side, and obviously the 252 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 6: things that he is doing right now today are having 253 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 6: a prety dramatic impact on the Senate agenda. You know, 254 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:09,959 Speaker 6: even just bifurcating the supplemental bills with trying to take 255 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:14,559 Speaker 6: an independent vote on Israel is upsetting the Republican majority 256 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 6: or the minority in the Senate. And so I think 257 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 6: it was probably like, hey, we need to get him 258 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 6: up here and make sure we set our agendas together. 259 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 6: So half introduction, half agenda setting, but frankly, because of 260 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 6: the time that we have available, probably later than it 261 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 6: should have happened, but obviously an important meeting. 262 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 2: When's he going to sit down in the Oval office? 263 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: Jeni? 264 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 7: You hope it is soon. You know, he just hasn't 265 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 7: had the opportunity to meet everybody, including the president, even 266 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 7: though he is second in line to the presidency. So 267 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 7: there should be a meeting and there should be real conversation. 268 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 7: You know, he's only been on the job for a week, 269 00:14:57,880 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 7: so it is going to take some time to get 270 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 7: up to speed. But those personal introductions are critically important, 271 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 7: as is his staffing. You know, the man hasn't even 272 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 7: had a chance. He's starting to staff up, but that 273 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 7: is a huge challenge. 274 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 2: Been a hiring spree in the last twenty four hours. 275 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 2: We can talk about that. We just heard from him 276 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 2: on the CBO score. That's next. This is Bloomberg. 277 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 278 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 279 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 280 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 281 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty. 282 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 2: We just heard from the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, 283 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: for the first time on this new CBO score on 284 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 2: the standalone Israel funding bill. This is the one that 285 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 2: the CBO said would add almost twenty seven billion dollars 286 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 2: to the budget deficit, remembering that it would be paid 287 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: for by taking money from the IRS. And this is 288 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 2: where we're getting some discord here. Fourteen point three billion 289 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 2: dollars and cuts to IRS funding that was part of 290 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 2: the Inflation Reduction Act. Now, the White House already says 291 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 2: that it's going to veto this thing if it reaches 292 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 2: the President's desk, which apparently it's not because I don't 293 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 2: know the votes in the House. The Senate doesn't like it, 294 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 2: and the Speaker says, I guess pay no attention to 295 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 2: the fine print. Heerio, you'd be careful, everybody careful. 296 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 7: Were you surprised by the CBO's courser. 297 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 6: Not surprise at all. 298 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: Only in Washington, when you cut spending do they call 299 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 1: it a are you along in? 300 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 2: Only in Washington, when you cut spending do they call 301 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 2: it an increase in the deficit. Let's assemble our panel 302 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 2: for their take. Genie Schanzano and Rick Davis are with us. 303 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 2: The math is difficult to argue with here, Rick, am 304 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 2: I missing something? 305 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: Yeah? 306 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 6: I think the political overlay to this right American public 307 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 6: here is that the Speaker is trying to cut funding. 308 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 6: Maybe a little of that seeps into oh, by the way, 309 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 6: it's the irs, and virtually none of that will go 310 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 6: to OH. 311 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 2: The CBO says that'll increase the deficit. 312 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 6: I mean, like CBO doesn't have a mouthpiece like the 313 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 6: speaker does. 314 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 2: But then there's reality, right, Genie. 315 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 7: That's right, And we talked about this yesterday, and so 316 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 7: only somebody trying to play political games, and not very effectively, 317 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 7: by the way, would try to pull the wool over 318 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 7: people's eyes and pretend that they didn't realize that cutting 319 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 7: this money to the IRS would actually decrease revenue and 320 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,400 Speaker 7: increase the deficit. It is a pay for it that 321 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 7: doesn't pay for anything. We do need to pay for 322 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 7: our spending, but you have to do it in a 323 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 7: fiscally responsible and even somebody I don't know, in maybe 324 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:07,199 Speaker 7: third grade math, can figure out that when you cut 325 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 7: IRS enforcement, you diminish our ability to collect money that 326 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 7: the government needs to keep funded. And so Mike Johnson 327 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 7: should know that. I am terribly concerned if he doesn't 328 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 7: realize that. But I think he realized it, and he's 329 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 7: trying to play political games and the politics aside. All 330 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 7: thinking people realize this is the reality. It doesn't take 331 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 7: a math genius. This has nothing to do with Washington. 332 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 7: This is to do with Mike Johnson trying to play 333 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 7: political games. Fiscally responsible people don't do this. Just look 334 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 7: at Tom Massey, a very conservative guy, who said this 335 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 7: is not fiscally responsible. It will add to the deficit. 336 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,199 Speaker 7: Even Marjorie Taylor Green said the same thing. So you know, 337 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 7: he's got to go back to the table on this. 338 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 7: Let's find some real cuts for the new speaker so 339 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:00,399 Speaker 7: he can move ahead. 340 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 2: We know we're in trouble when Genie is quoting Marjorie 341 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 2: Taylor Greenrick, I don't know what you want to do 342 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 2: with that, but I will point you to the Republican 343 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 2: Accountability Project, Rick Davis, what do you think of It's 344 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 2: a six figure ad campaign to shame Speaker Johnson over 345 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 2: his efforts to overturn the twenty twenty election. This is 346 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 2: another part of, of course, the narrative in his first 347 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 2: full week on the job, that we're hearing a lot 348 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 2: more about the amicus brief that he wrote that would 349 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:31,919 Speaker 2: have brought from the state of Texas these results to 350 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court. Here's just a taste of this ad. 351 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 2: It's gonna be running in primetime on Fox News. 352 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 8: Republican Mike Johnson just became Speaker of the House, but 353 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 8: he's the last person who should be leading Congress. After 354 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 8: Donald Trump lost the elections, Johnson started pushing Trump's big lie, 355 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 8: pressuring the Supreme Court to overturn the will of voters 356 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 8: in four states. 357 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 2: And if they go on to call him a danger 358 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,639 Speaker 2: to our democracy. Rick, I could keep this thing running, 359 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 2: but I'm sure we'll all begin and dated by the ad. 360 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 2: If we're watching cable news, who's this resonating with? You 361 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 2: mentioned the lack of a megaphone at the CBO. Will 362 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 2: this get into the right living rooms? Will it make it? Then? 363 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,399 Speaker 6: I don't get into some I mean they've obviously targeted 364 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 6: the right states, you know, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. 365 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 6: I mean, that's where the fight's going to be for 366 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 6: a presidential election. And by the way, all of a sudden, 367 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 6: we have a new speaker who nobody's ever heard of, 368 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 6: which means they don't hate him yet. You know, voters 369 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 6: hated Nancy Pelosi, voters hated you know McCarthy. Voters hate 370 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 6: our leaders because they have to go through all this 371 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 6: kind of negative campaign advertising. And here's this guy Johnson 372 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 6: no one has ever heard of. They haven't learned to 373 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,959 Speaker 6: hate him yet. So this is step one and teaching 374 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,360 Speaker 6: people to hate, you know, Speaker Johnson. It's critically critically 375 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 6: important that the Democrats are able to demonize Republican leadership, and. 376 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell's kind of hard to argue with he's doing 377 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 2: a lot of. 378 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,720 Speaker 6: Business with Democrats these days, so they're gonna have to 379 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 6: find someone to be the target. Johnson's time in the 380 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 6: barrel is now. 381 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 2: His time in the barrel? Genie. How long is it 382 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 2: going to last? 383 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 7: You know, I think it will, it will last. I 384 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 7: have long thought that it's really really tough to demonize 385 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 7: the new speaker because his personality doesn't really play with that. 386 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 7: You know, it was far easier for the Republicans to 387 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 7: demonize Nancy Pelosi than it's going to be to demonize 388 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 7: somebody like Mike Johnson. His personality is, quite frankly, a 389 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 7: lot more like somebody like our former president, a former 390 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 7: vice president, rather Mike Pence. And I think that's going 391 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 7: to make it tough now or is he going to 392 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 7: go through vetting? Are people going to look back at 393 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 7: what he's done? All of that is fair game. All 394 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 7: of the things that he has said, he hasn't been 395 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 7: vetted as most speakers would be, and so a lot 396 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 7: of this is new. But I think unless he changes 397 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 7: his tone in a distinct way, that demon demonization is 398 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 7: going to be hard. But I do think anybody who 399 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 7: plays a role in trying to say the twenty twenty 400 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 7: election was stolen. That is fair game to say, look, folks, 401 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,199 Speaker 7: this is who is leading this party. Do you feel 402 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 7: safe putting your trust in this party to run the House? 403 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 7: I think that's fair game. He's the one who led 404 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 7: the charge quietly as he did. 405 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 2: Well. When you go big picture, Rick, and you look 406 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 2: at that Bloomberg poll that we've talked a lot about 407 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 2: with Morning Consult, looking at these seven swing states that 408 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 2: are critical, some of which will have that ad running 409 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 2: in them, the economy ends up being the number one issue. 410 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 2: And is this why no one seems to be dwelling 411 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 2: on twenty twenty. Yeah, I think twenty twenty is well. 412 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 6: The only person who's dwelling on twenty twenty is is 413 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 6: Donald Trump. And the Democrats couldn't be happier about that. 414 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 6: That's what they want point. But everybody else is like 415 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 6: moving on and Democrats are using a lot of the 416 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 6: issues to their success from twenty twenty. We see it 417 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 6: in advertisings everywhere here in Virginia for the legislative elections 418 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,360 Speaker 6: that are next week. Abortion, abortion, abortion right. I mean 419 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 6: it was Republicans are going to take away your rights, 420 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 6: and so we know where they're headed, and Republicans are 421 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 6: talking about the economy, so you know, money's on the economy, 422 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 6: and that's where I think the twenty twenty four election 423 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 6: will be prosecuted at. That's why Biden's going to Wisconsin 424 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 6: to talk about the economy and bringing jobs to rural America, 425 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 6: you know, trying to get some of those blue collar 426 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 6: jobs back. So you see it playing out in real time. 427 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,679 Speaker 6: But I would say, you know, shoot your bullets on 428 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 6: you know, Speaker Johnson in a presidential targeted. 429 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 2: State doesn't make much sense. If they think it's going 430 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 2: to be Trump, they ought to be shooting at him. 431 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 2: How about that. Rick Davis and Geenie Shan say, No, 432 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,199 Speaker 2: great conversation on what is truly the fastest show in 433 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 2: politics today, because we've got a Federal Reserve announcement coming 434 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,160 Speaker 2: up here, and I want to thank you both for 435 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 2: great insights. As always, our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors 436 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shann say, No, I'm Joe Matthew 437 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,719 Speaker 2: in Washington, where tomorrow it's going to be inflation, inflation inflation, right. 438 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast. Make sure 439 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify, and 440 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 441 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm 442 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 2: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com