1 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and 2 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:09,399 Speaker 1: social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm 3 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:17,240 Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien. Today's crash Course Israel versus Hamas. Gaza, a slender, 4 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: twenty five mile long stretch of land bordered by the 5 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:24,279 Speaker 1: Mediterranean Sea to its west, Egypt to its south, and 6 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: Israel to its north and east, is now a war zone. 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: In the wake of Hamas's recent grizzly attack that left 8 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: more than fourteen hundred Israelis dead and about another two 9 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: hundred taken hostage. Israel's military forces appear poised to occupy 10 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: Gaza to try obliterating the Islamist terrorist group. Ancient religious 11 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: and cultural animosities and contemporary geopolitical jockeying are the backdrop 12 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: for this conflict, but this newest iteration appears to have 13 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: been sparked by Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US seeking 14 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: to normalize diplomatic relations. Hamas, apparently fearful of being isolated 15 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: in the Middle East, may have opted for mass murder 16 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: to derail those talks. Other factors are at play. Decades 17 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: of simmering resentment about Israel's more aggressive regional stances and 18 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: military incursions into Gaza in the West Bank, outrage about 19 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: violence at Jerusalem's All Oxamasque, and perhaps most significantly, broader 20 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 1: concerns about Israel's treatment of Palestinians and its most recent 21 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: push to expand settlements in the West Bank. For its part, 22 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: Hamas has routinely called for the destruction of the Israeli state. Iran, 23 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: while pursuing nuclear weapons, has bankrolled Hamas and another militant 24 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: group in the region, hes Belah, making it a dangerous 25 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: and divisive regional wildcard, with Israel warning Gaza's two million 26 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: Palestinian residents to relocate as more intense warfare draws near. 27 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: US President Joe Biden has visited Israel to show support 28 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: a deadly last you know, as a hospital disrupted some 29 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: of the plans around his visit, symbolizing perhaps how unpredictable 30 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: and dangerous this conflict will continue to be. Joining me 31 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: today to discuss all of this are Mark Champion and 32 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: Andreas Klute to Bloomberg Opinion columnists with deep experience covering 33 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: international affairs. Welcome, gentlemen, Hi Jim. 34 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 2: Nice to be here, so Mark. 35 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 1: You arrived in Israel on Wednesday, October eighteenth, and we're 36 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: recording on Thursday the nineteenth. Things are moving fast and 37 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: could change. And I know you haven't had much time 38 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: there yet, but what are your first impressions being on 39 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: the ground there. 40 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 2: Well, I think the first is what you always get 41 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 2: in countries that are war zones are becoming war zones, 42 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: which is that when you go to the place that 43 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 2: isn't you know, directly in the line of fire, then 44 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 2: things are completely normal and people, yeah, you know, at restaurants, cafes, 45 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 2: their lives go on. They are disturbed, and you know, 46 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 2: there is a sort of genuine unhappy piness. You know, 47 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 2: I'm going to do the awful thing and quote my 48 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 2: taxi driver from this morning, but he has on his 49 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 2: knuckles tattooed, you know, the name of his son, which 50 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 2: translates as happiness. And then on the other side, you 51 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,239 Speaker 2: only live once, and he said, we always have these 52 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: bad times, and so I keep it there just to 53 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 2: remind myself, and I never needed it more than now. 54 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 2: And the general feeling is, with few exceptions, they don't 55 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 2: really see a way out that ends happily peacefully. So 56 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 2: a lot of intrepidation, but you know, in general, life 57 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 2: goes on. 58 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: And So how did we get here? Mark, How do 59 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: we go from diplomatic baby steps meant to bring Saudi 60 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 1: Arabia and Israel together to bloody, sprawling combat in the 61 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: blink of an eye. 62 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 2: That is a huge question and incredibly controversial. So I 63 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 2: kind of stepped through the minefield. But essentially, you know, 64 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 2: as I can best explain it, what has happened is 65 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 2: the result of a series attempts that were made fifteen 66 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 2: twenty years ago to get somewhere towards a settlement, never 67 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 2: really worked, and increasingly since then the attempt hasn't been 68 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 2: made to make something work. So what Israel did was 69 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 2: to disengage, move out of Gaza and you know, pull 70 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 2: that troops or administration out. That was back in two 71 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: thousand and five. You then had elections, Hamas took charge. 72 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 2: Hamas even then was committed to the destruction of the 73 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 2: state of Israel. And this time later you moved to 74 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 2: a period where Hamas has been preparing has always said 75 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 2: it was preparing for a major attack. At the same time, 76 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:49,280 Speaker 2: they were increasingly marginalized because of the As you laid 77 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 2: out these diplomatic efforts, you already had the Abrams Accords, 78 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 2: where some of the Gulf states of Morocco had you know, 79 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: normalized relations with Israel. Now you had the big one, 80 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, looking very close to doing so. And all 81 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: of this was done without any consideration of the Palestinian settlement, 82 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 2: which was kind of put on ice some time ago. 83 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 2: And for Hamas, they felt, I think that this was 84 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: a kind of you know, now or never moment, and 85 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 2: they attacked as far as you know, one can gauge 86 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 2: with the intent to cause a major conflict, the wider 87 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: the better. As far as their concerned. 88 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: Israeli intelligence had no inkling this was coming. They looked 89 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: very flat footed, unaware. The Israeli military got taken by 90 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: surprise in a massive way, one of the most formidable 91 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: military forces in the Middle East. How did that happen? 92 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 2: Well, I mean that's going to be the subject of 93 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 2: a long investigation, you know, once things calmed down. I 94 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 2: think already we know it's probably wrong to say that 95 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 2: there was no inkling and that there were indications, and 96 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 2: Israeli intelligent did have some indications, but the focus, the 97 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: political focus, the security focus was elsewhere. It was in 98 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 2: the West Bank because of years of fairly aggressive settlement policies, 99 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 2: plus issues around Alaksa and the Dome of the Rock 100 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 2: in Jerusalem, so you had the security forces diverted to 101 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 2: protect settlements since on, and also you know, the intelligence services, 102 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 2: their attention was diverted. They were worried about trouble in 103 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 2: the West Bank. They thought that Hamas was happy enough 104 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 2: in its running its enclave and that this kind of 105 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 2: scale of event wasn't really likely. 106 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: Andreas, let's talk a little bit more about Kaza's history, 107 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: you know, the rise of Hamas and its relationship to 108 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 1: the millions of Palestinians and claims to represent. 109 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 3: How does Gaz of you this, how does Ghaz of 110 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 3: view the rise of Hamas well? I mean Hamas is 111 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 3: an interesting one because just before the attacks or as 112 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 3: Mark said, you know, things in the agents seem to 113 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 3: be going a lot of us thought in a better direction. 114 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 3: And Hamas, who was not so much on our radar screens. 115 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: They're offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, so they're Sunni, not Shia, 116 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 3: like Hisbolla and like the Mullahs in Iran, and they 117 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 3: have this kind of Nihalist approach to the region. As 118 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: Mark mentioned, is that they basically want to annihilate the 119 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 3: state of Israel, and they're domestic or the Palestinian rivals 120 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 3: are running very badly at the West Bank, and they 121 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 3: are at the same time deeply embedded with Gaza because 122 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 3: some Palestinis in Gaza are intertwined with them, but mainly 123 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 3: because they're using these men, women, children, babies as human shields. 124 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: As everyone's been saying, intentionally, in order to hit Hamas, 125 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 3: now you'd have to also be prepared to hit these civilians, 126 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 3: genuine civilians every time as well. And in fact, as 127 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 3: you know, the Israelis said to the Gas and Palestinians, 128 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 3: clear out, we're coming, and as they have been trying 129 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 3: to clear out, it's in part Hamas that's blocking them 130 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 3: because they want to maximize Palestinian casualties. And that's something 131 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 3: very often overlooked now in all these on the streets 132 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 3: of Europe and the Middle East and around the world 133 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 3: and on college campuses, is that it's Hamas that wants 134 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 3: to maximize Palestinian casualties and deaths and suffering in Gaza, 135 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 3: not Israel. So that's this bizarre and frankly, I, like 136 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 3: so many things, I think irrational. I don't understand rationally 137 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 3: how I mean, I would love local Palestinians in Gaza 138 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 3: to now rise up against them. I would like there 139 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 3: to be an effort to liberate themselves from Hamas. 140 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: You know, this notion that the Palestinians and Gaza should 141 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: clear out Andreas is something people can say in the 142 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: military as they're about to consider occupy in Gaza. But 143 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: the reality is it's two million people with very few 144 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 1: places to go, and they don't have you know, there's 145 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: not warm welcome for them awaiting in other countries in 146 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 1: the region. So this again feels to me like one 147 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 1: of these massive, massive issues here is two million people 148 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 1: could instantly become refugees with nowhere to go, refugees within 149 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: their own. 150 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 3: Land, and that sort of sets the Palestinians apart from 151 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,359 Speaker 3: the millions of other refugees. I think the UN calculated 152 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 3: there's more than one hundred million now in the world. 153 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 3: But you know, the Syrians. Now, I covered other refugee crises, 154 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 3: you know in Europe, I'm sure marked it as well. 155 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 3: The Syrians went to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and then onwards 156 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 3: to Europe. The Palestinians in Gaza, as you just said, 157 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 3: have nowhere to go and we should point fingers at 158 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 3: Egypt as well, because it's not letting them in. Biden 159 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 3: was there and apparently there's some humanitarian eight trucks going 160 00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 3: into Gaza to bring stuff in, but it is so 161 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 3: far Egypt is not letting in these fellow Arabs either, 162 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 3: and the Israelis can't let them in because they'd be 163 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 3: letting in Hamas as well. So yeah, that's part of 164 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 3: the tragedy is these two million are trapped there in 165 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 3: the small strip of land with nowhere to go, and 166 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 3: they can press their faces against barbed wire, but they 167 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 3: have nowhere to go. And that's the tragedy of the situation. 168 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 3: And it's not the Israelis that wanted it this way. 169 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think the cargo that Egypt's gonna let through 170 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: is twenty trucks or so. That's also not a very 171 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: massive concession. I can't imagine twenty trucks making a huge 172 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: difference to two million people, but perhaps it's a start. Well, 173 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about Benjamin and Yahoo before 174 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: we go to the break. He's had nine political lives 175 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: in Israel. He was attempting to stack the local judiciary 176 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: while miired in a corruption investigation before the war broke out, 177 00:10:55,440 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: and he has spent years rattling Israel's sabers at home Mark, 178 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: how do you think about him within this whole collision? 179 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think there are a few things to 180 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 2: pick apart there. 181 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: You know. 182 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 2: The first thing is that I think Nathan, you know, 183 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 2: at this point, is the political version of a dead 184 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 2: man walking. So it's a question of time before he's 185 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 2: gone because the anger at what is above all an 186 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 2: extraordinary security failure will fall on him and correctly so, 187 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 2: so you know, that's one part of it. The other is, 188 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 2: you know, how do you assign blame for something like this. Well, 189 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 2: the first thing is, in a terrorist attack, you can 190 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 2: only assign blame to the terrorists because you know the 191 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 2: definition of a terrorist attack is that you are attacking 192 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 2: civilians by choice. Nobody forces you to attack civilians. That 193 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 2: is a choice. So he does not bear responsibility for that, 194 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 2: But he bears responsibility for the policy failure that has 195 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 2: led us here. And I think that is I was 196 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 2: speaking today with a former negotiator on the Israeli side 197 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 2: with the Palestinians, and he dealt with Clinton, and he 198 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 2: dealt with some of the negotiations after and what he 199 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 2: was saying is that you know, this is ultimately a 200 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 2: policy failure of huge proportions, and it isn't just about 201 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 2: security and these sort of things that happened just now 202 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 2: that allowed this to happen. It is about the treatment 203 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 2: of Gaza, which initially was a fairly well intentioned project 204 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 2: to disengage. It was kind of a recognition that if 205 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 2: we aren't going to have a two state solution anytime soon, 206 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 2: we need to give some sort of autonomy, self rule 207 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 2: and so on. There's no future to occupying the territory. 208 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 2: So it was relatively well meant at the beginning, but 209 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 2: increasingly what happened essentially was that Netnunyahu empowered Hamas, and 210 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 2: he did so in order to weaken the Palestinian authority 211 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: because in the World Bank what was happening was that 212 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 2: his coalition partners parties of the settlers of expansion, some 213 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 2: call it annexation within the West Bank. So that what 214 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 2: he wanted was not a negotiating partner for a two 215 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 2: state solution in the Palestinian authority or a strong authority. 216 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 2: What he wanted was the ability to give his coalition 217 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 2: partners what they wanted without too much interference, and he 218 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 2: just parked how much to the side and essentially empowered 219 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 2: them by weakening the Palestinian authority. Because when you provide 220 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 2: essentially no hope for a solution, where do people turn? 221 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 2: He left them nowhere to turn. That was non violent. 222 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: On that note, We're going to take a break, Mark, 223 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: and we'll come right back and pick up our conversation. 224 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: We're back with Mark Champion and Andreas Klouth Bloomberg opinion columnists, 225 00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: and we're talking about the already bloody and tragic Gaza conflict. Andreas, 226 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: Joe Biden just traveled to Israel. Was that a good 227 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 1: move or a rash move? 228 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 3: I think it was a good move, and he did 229 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,199 Speaker 3: it very well. He's due to speak from the White 230 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 3: House to the American audience tonight, but so far he's 231 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 3: managed to hit the right notes, which is very difficult 232 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 3: every time he's spoken out since the attacks, and again 233 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 3: he did so in Israel. I mean so it almost 234 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 3: went south on him. There were political risks and physical risks. 235 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 3: The political risks included something like this horrendous shelling of 236 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 3: the hospital in Gaza, which Israeli intelligence now think was 237 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 3: a stray rocket from the Islami Jahada, in other words, 238 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 3: from as Biden said, the other team, not the Israeli team. 239 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 3: But because of that, half of his itinerary was in 240 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 3: effect cancel, because he was going to go to Israel 241 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 3: and Jordan to meet with the Palestinian Instrudanians in a there, 242 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 3: which is sort of part of the iconography of the trip, 243 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 3: the US President coming in and talking to people on 244 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 3: all sides. So half of that fell away, which made 245 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 3: it harder. But I still think he found very good 246 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 3: words in again, as he had already not saying these 247 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 3: sentences that you hear in talks to like yes, calm up, 248 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 3: but you know, yes we support Israel. But no, he 249 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 3: was genuinely supporting them and calling this Hamastach pure unadult 250 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 3: rated evil, and he showed genuine empathy, and he reached 251 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,359 Speaker 3: into history and there were inklings of his own personal 252 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 3: biography of loss that allowed him to empathize with the 253 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 3: families of the victims he met. There were sort of 254 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 3: echoes of the awareness of the Holocaust in the background, 255 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 3: and that was genuine. So one audience, the israelis I 256 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 3: think mark making confirmed this or not, but was genuinely reassured. 257 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 3: At the same time, the Palestinians, Arabs and all their 258 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 3: friends also genuinely saw how concerned he is to protect 259 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 3: them as much as possible, specifically Natanyahu's sitting next to 260 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 3: him as he was speaking. I liked one passage where 261 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 3: Biden essentially said, you know, we Americans, after what we 262 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 3: went through after nine to eleven, we understand the all 263 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 3: consuming rage that has now gripped you because we had 264 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 3: that rage. But don't let that be your counselor your guide. 265 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 3: It leads to bad decisions. And he said, well, we 266 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 3: are democracies, and we're fighting terrorists, and we're going to 267 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 3: set an example by the way we fight. And I 268 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 3: think these messages arrived they were intended at Natanyahu, and 269 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 3: I think he intended them, but the rest of the 270 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 3: world was paying attention to. His primary objective is, of course, 271 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 3: to keep this war from widening, and so not just 272 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 3: his bollah in Lebanon and Iran, but I think even 273 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 3: the people Iran is supplying with weapons, which is Russia 274 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 3: and even China and even possibly North Korea. He's assuming 275 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 3: they're all listening, and he often repeats that phrase, don't 276 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 3: don't don't. And he's got two aircraft carrier groups parked 277 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 3: next to it off the event in the Eastern Mediterranean 278 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 3: to make that clear. But he's saying, don't let anybody 279 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 3: get ideas. Let the israel Alias do this properly, and 280 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 3: let us try to help the Palestinians as best we can. 281 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 3: And I think that's such a task for subtlety. And 282 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 3: he found the right tones and notes even though half 283 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 3: the trip got canceled. So I would say he's been 284 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 3: doing as well as one can possibly do. Whether the 285 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 3: intended audiences are all listening, I mean the people demonstrating 286 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 3: on campuses and streets and the Mullahs for instance, I 287 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 3: don't know. 288 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: So it's enough in your mind. The rich symbolism of 289 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,479 Speaker 1: him being there justifies the visit, even if he's not 290 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,439 Speaker 1: bringing home many trophies or breakthroughs. 291 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 3: Yes, And to me it reminded there were other visits 292 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,120 Speaker 3: like that. He was there for seven and a half 293 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 3: hours already, as by pure coinstance, seven and a half 294 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 3: hours is how long Sehn F. Kennedy was in Berlin 295 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 3: in nineteen sixty three. That was a big moment in 296 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 3: the Cold War. Two years after the Wall was put up. 297 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 3: A lot of people were about to lose heart. He 298 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 3: came and after that everyone found their heart their lion's 299 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 3: hard after that visit. 300 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,159 Speaker 1: But they still had to wait nearly three decades for 301 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 1: the wall to come down to well. 302 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 3: Actually, and in this case, I mean, when we get 303 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 3: back to this conflict, this may be longer than three decades. 304 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 3: I mean, but although at the time, by the way, 305 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 3: just before the wall open in nineteen eighty nine, we 306 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 3: thought that might be forever. We didn't think it would 307 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 3: end in our lifetime. But that was a different kind 308 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 3: of conflict, and I think this one is more intractable. 309 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 1: While we're on the US, just one last piece on that, Andreas, 310 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: which is that the US is wrapping up military hardware 311 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: support for Israel as well. That has been curious to me, 312 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,959 Speaker 1: simply because Israel has already been very well funded, it 313 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: already has a robust military. There's been an argument out 314 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: there that it actually didn't want outside funding or support 315 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 1: because it wanted to show it could fight its own wars. 316 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 1: And in a very short period of time, now we 317 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 1: have the US wrapping up military aid to Israel. Explain 318 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 1: that to. 319 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 3: Me, I can't explain it. Very well, I mean there's 320 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 3: a practical consideration, is that iron Dome, this system which 321 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 3: we now see in these early haunting and beautiful images 322 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 3: right when it's in action shooting down rockets. But my 323 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 3: understanding is that it's been in use so much that 324 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 3: they'd need to replenish that AMMO. So America can help great, 325 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 3: and of course America should help if there's other ways 326 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:44,959 Speaker 3: to do it. I think there is a lot of 327 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 3: symbolism with this. As you said, the israel Raelis are 328 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 3: well off compared to the Ukrainians, for instance, had the 329 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 3: money have the AMMO. I don't think it's going to 330 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 3: come down to that, but I think there's just a 331 00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 3: domestic American political imperative on both sides to just show 332 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,239 Speaker 3: where they're with you and we support and therefore in 333 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 3: every way it is now in every way possible. So 334 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 3: it is not to me politically pause. I don't regard 335 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 3: anyone you know that you see the pundits or the politicians. 336 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 3: It is not possible now not to offer that because 337 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,439 Speaker 3: that's just a task. And the bizarre thing is that 338 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 3: this comes at the very time as not half but 339 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 3: part of one of the two big parties wants to 340 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:31,400 Speaker 3: stop supporting Ukraine for different reasons, but exactly as strategically 341 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 3: important for the United States to keep supporting Ukraine against 342 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 3: Russia as to support Israel, and Ukraine does need to 343 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 3: help more urgently, by which I mean it stops getting it. 344 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 3: And according to the Ukrainians, they might lose against Russia. 345 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 3: Israel will could militarily win. It's not about that, it's 346 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 3: how they wage the war. Then, as you know, they're 347 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 3: now thinking of bundling the Ukraine issue with the Israeli issue, 348 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 3: with the southern border with Mexico issue, which is insane, 349 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 3: and even with Taiwan, as if like every problem in 350 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 3: the world into one package, just to get it past 351 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 3: the troglodytes in the House of Representatives on the Republican side, 352 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 3: you know, just to get it. 353 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 1: Through the dysfunctional troglodites. Mark. This could obviously all change 354 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 1: in a few days between this interview and when this 355 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: podcast goes live. But what is Israel weighing right now 356 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 1: as we watch this unfold. 357 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 2: Well, that's a really good question. I mean, so what 358 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 2: clearly President Biden, Joan Chancellor Schultz, British Prime Minister Sanak, 359 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,240 Speaker 2: maybe Macran's coming to what they all want Israel to 360 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 2: be weighing is be very careful how you do this. 361 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 2: Think about the day after, because what we know about 362 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 2: these kinds of conflicts is that the more people you kill, 363 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 2: the more that stirs resentment and creates a fertile recruitment 364 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 2: ground for organizations like come US and these organizations, you know, 365 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 2: when you kill them off, they also castasize. The US 366 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 2: was pretty successful in neutralizing al Qaeda after nine to 367 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 2: eleven over a number of years, and then you know, 368 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 2: you go into Iraq, you kill a lot of people, 369 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 2: and you have Isis, different organizations, Samem. 370 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 1: Afghanistan, and then you go occupy Afghanistan. 371 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,199 Speaker 2: So I think this is you know what President Biden 372 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 2: was trying to get at when he was going back 373 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 2: to nine to eleven. You know, we made mistakes, and 374 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 2: clearly he didn't want to say it, but going into 375 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 2: Iraq was a mistake, and you know, you have to 376 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 2: think about the day after, which is a great failure 377 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 2: of the US going into Iraq not thinking about what 378 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 2: will we do with this place when we effectively break 379 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 2: it and own it. So the Israelis, you know, I think, 380 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 2: will be less naive than the Americans were, you know, 381 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 2: in Iraq. They know all about Gaza, they've been there before. 382 00:22:56,119 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 2: But I think one thing we don't know is how 383 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 2: much they're thinking this particular issue through. Are they concerned 384 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 2: simply with we just need to go in and deal 385 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 2: with Hermas. Everything else will deal with later, or are 386 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 2: they trying to think through what will happen the day after? 387 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 2: How do we do this so that we don't end 388 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 2: up with unintended consequences that actually make it all worse. 389 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 2: And unfortunately, what we see doesn't suggest just from the 390 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 2: comments that Israeli leaders have made and from physically what's 391 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 2: going on, with the intensity of the aerial bombing in 392 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 2: a very small place, it doesn't lead us to think 393 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 2: that it's a very reflective moment. It's really an operational one. 394 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 2: We just have to get in there and deal with Hermas. 395 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: And Mark, what about Egypt? What role does it have 396 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: to play here? 397 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 2: I think Egypt is just desperately trying to stay out 398 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 2: of it. 399 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 1: They want Egypt wants no role. 400 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 2: They want no role whatsoever. And to go back to 401 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 2: the idea of you know, Parsonian's leaving God, we sort 402 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,199 Speaker 2: of have to remember that these are refugees mostly, you know. 403 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 2: So we're going back to the you know, nineteen forty 404 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 2: eight and the Nakba and so on, and you know, 405 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 2: these people who were displaced to where they are, and 406 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,239 Speaker 2: some parts of the West Bank are refugee camps. They 407 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 2: don't look like it anymore because they're forty years old 408 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 2: and they've kind of developed, but they are. And unfortunately, 409 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 2: ethnic cleansing is a lot more common than we think. 410 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 2: So you know what we just saw in Armenia Azerbaijan, 411 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 2: you know, end of thirty years of conflict, what happens 412 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 2: one side wins and the other side just leaves, the 413 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 2: civilians leave. What do we see in a Pazia? You know, 414 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 2: a part of Georgia that the Russians now more or 415 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 2: less control. In nineteen ninety two, the small minority up 416 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,920 Speaker 2: has kicked out the Georgians population. Ethnic Georgian populations made 417 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 2: up half of the population, and they kicked them out 418 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 2: and they won't let them back in. Why because demography 419 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,959 Speaker 2: is everything, you know. So if you are a minority, 420 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 2: if Israelis are a minority within it Israel that includes 421 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 2: all the Palestinians, then you don't have you can't have 422 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 2: a democratic Jewish state. And this is at the heart 423 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 2: of the whole conflict. So when Egypt says don't leave, 424 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:16,199 Speaker 2: say stand your ground, what they're saying is that just 425 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 2: being there is political. It is a political statement because 426 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 2: this is in the end about demography and land. And 427 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,120 Speaker 2: this is why you ultimately, you know, most people who 428 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 2: really think this stuff through, they'll say, I don't know 429 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,199 Speaker 2: how we get there, but we all know we have 430 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 2: to have a two state solution because there isn't another solution. 431 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 2: You can't have a one state solution, because if you 432 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,720 Speaker 2: have a one state solution, there can't be a Jewish 433 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 2: democracy in Israel. And if you have a one state solution, 434 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 2: you know it's either going to be that. You know, 435 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 2: it's either going to be a Jewish dictatorship, which is 436 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,119 Speaker 2: no fun for the Palestinians, or it's not going to 437 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,880 Speaker 2: be a Jewish state and there's not enough trust there 438 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 2: understandably for Jewish Israelis to say, okay, well we'll go 439 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 2: for that, will have an open election and take the 440 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 2: risk that Hummas runs the place. So this is the 441 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 2: great difficulty. You know, how do you get to a 442 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,440 Speaker 2: two state solution? I think at this point nobody has 443 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 2: any ideas, and that's partly why that question about the 444 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 2: next day is being pushed aside, because you know, how 445 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 2: would you do it if your one narrative about Gaza 446 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 2: is to say that, look, we separate, if we disengaged, 447 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 2: we did a kind of test run for a two 448 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 2: state solution. If we said to the passes, run yourselves, 449 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,199 Speaker 2: elect whoever you want. They elected Humas. How do we 450 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 2: have a two state solution If Harmas is going to 451 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 2: run it dedicated to the destruction of Israel and is 452 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 2: a state with the right to arm itself and to 453 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 2: buy tanks, how do we do that? 454 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: Well, intractable problems And then of course Andreas there's a 455 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 1: run lurking and looming out there, aspiring to be a 456 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 1: nuclear power, funding terrorism in the region, spending the last 457 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,119 Speaker 1: several months sort of I don't know how to think 458 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 1: about it, at least going through the kobukie of putting 459 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 1: olive branches out on the global stage. But if it 460 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 1: then turns out that they are more disruptive than they 461 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 1: claim to be, that all becomes problematic. There's been i 462 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 1: think some overly aggressive reporting suggesting they were more involved 463 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:19,880 Speaker 1: with planning them as attacked than they were. I think 464 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 1: that that's been sort of roundly dispensed with, but I 465 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,879 Speaker 1: still think we have to find out more about Iran's 466 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: intentions and actions nonetheless in the region. How does this 467 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 1: all play out for Iran? 468 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,439 Speaker 3: Well, first, one thing I find encouraging, and just from 469 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 3: social media, is seeing that the way the Iranian Mullahs 470 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 3: are trying to play this great Satan all of that, 471 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 3: having everyone on this is not the way the population 472 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 3: is playing it. Actually, So there's memes I've seen, I 473 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 3: don't know how you know, representative they are of Iranian 474 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 3: not mobs, but aggregations of people not chanting what they're 475 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,199 Speaker 3: being told to chant, because you know, they've just in 476 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 3: on the streets fighting for their own freedom, for women 477 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,640 Speaker 3: to show their hair and the rest of it. And 478 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,879 Speaker 3: so the Ranian people again sort of like Hamas and 479 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 3: the Palestinians, is like the Mullahs and the Iranians. The 480 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 3: Iranian people shouldn't get drawn into this in any way. 481 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 3: The Iranian Mullas, I think, as you just said, I 482 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 3: also don't think it's plausible, although I have no idea 483 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 3: that they were actually giving orders for Hamas to attack. 484 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 3: Now even though they've of course been sending money in weapons, 485 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 3: but it didn't rhyme with everything else they were doing. 486 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 3: As you said, they've been putting out all of branches. 487 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 3: We just had a prisoner for dollar bank account on 488 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 3: freezing exchange, a swap with the US that we thought 489 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 3: was going to lead further and maybe to talks to 490 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 3: get them to stop moving closer to having nuclear weapons again. 491 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 3: And of course they were also on the other hand, 492 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 3: observing that Saudi Arabia and Israel and the United States 493 00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,560 Speaker 3: were getting closer, and they were calculating, and I think 494 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 3: for them it's like, oh, now Hamas did this, what 495 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 3: do we do? And they're expected to try to burn 496 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 3: American flags, Israeli flags, all of that. It's almost like 497 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 3: a reflex. Having said that Iran is now the vector, 498 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 3: it would be the vector for contagion if this local 499 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 3: fire spreads into a global conflagration and inferno. Because of 500 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 3: if you remember back to George W. Bush and the 501 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 3: axis of evil, Iran was part of that. Nowadays, I 502 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 3: keep hearing the axes of resistance, and Iran is part 503 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 3: of that again, where it's Russia, Iran, China in China 504 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 3: and Russia, they were just with many other countries in 505 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 3: the global South also meeting. They want to have an 506 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 3: access of resistance against the US led West, of which 507 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 3: Israel and Europe are part as well. And so if Iran, 508 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 3: via hisball or something gets drawn in, then Russia and 509 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 3: China and North Korea may get drawn in as well, 510 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 3: if only because they will at align against what they 511 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 3: see as this Western rigged system and will bylining may 512 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 3: be tempted to kindle in their own regional conflicts, from 513 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 3: Taiwan to Ukraine or Moldova. And that's I think another 514 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 3: subtext of Biden's don't don't. 515 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: All right, We're going to take one more break and 516 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 1: then I'll come back to continue this very interesting conversation 517 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 1: with both of you. We're back with Mark Champion and 518 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: Andreas Kluth and we're discussing the Gaza conflict. Mark for Israel, 519 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: is this a turning point or is it retrenchment? 520 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 2: Yes, I mean I don't know, I genuinely don't know. 521 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 2: It is a watershed moment. Whatever policies were being followed before, 522 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 2: it's clear that they collapsed. So Israel cannot just continue 523 00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 2: in the same way that it was with the same 524 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 2: policies that it had, and the first instance of needing 525 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,960 Speaker 2: to change that and the recognition that they need to 526 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 2: change that is precisely the decision a parent decision leads 527 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 2: to prepare to go into Gaza and clear it out. 528 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 2: There was this kind of slightly disturbing terminology that Israel 529 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 2: had before for how to deal with Hamas, where they 530 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 2: would go in every once in a while with a 531 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 2: limited campaign, and they called it mowing the lawn, just 532 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 2: trying to keep Humas from growing into the kind of 533 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 2: force that could do what it just did. Well, clearly 534 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 2: that didn't work. So this is why there really isn't 535 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:45,720 Speaker 2: a debate here of any real significance about whether to 536 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 2: go in. There's a very strong consensus across the parties. 537 00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 2: They brought another party from the opposition into a war cabinet. 538 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 2: Benny Gantz, the representative, is if anything more rhetorically hawkish 539 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 2: about this then Nettan Yahoo. So the first instance of 540 00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 2: having to change the policy that is going into Gaza, 541 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,320 Speaker 2: removing Hamas and making that change. The next will come 542 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 2: with the reckoning for Netanyahu, and I hope a reassessment 543 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 2: of this policy of weakening the Palasinian authority. Israel does 544 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 2: not want to reoccupy Gaza. It does not want to 545 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 2: go back to that. That's just a recipe for a 546 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 2: drip feed of coffins of soldiers coming back of you know, 547 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 2: engagement and killing of Gaza civilians, which is you know, 548 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 2: there's no upside to it. So I don't think Israel 549 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 2: has any intention of occupying, but they feel they need 550 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:40,560 Speaker 2: to go in. They need to change the game. They 551 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 2: need to change regime essentially in Gaza. And when they 552 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 2: do that, they have to replace it with something. You know, 553 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 2: what's it going to be. How they're going to do it, 554 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 2: They're going to need the engagement of countries like Saudi Egypt, etc. 555 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 2: In order to provide some sort of trustible support from 556 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 2: the Palatinian side of this new regime that going to 557 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 2: come in. You know, it'll be very difficult for the 558 00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 2: Palestinian authority because they'll be seen is in cohoots with Israel. 559 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,520 Speaker 2: But I think that's not worked out yet. But they're 560 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 2: going to have to find a new regime of some 561 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 2: sort and they're going to have to think about, okay, 562 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 2: so we need a partner. We're going to need a 563 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 2: Palestinian partner. That we can talk to that is not 564 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,880 Speaker 2: dedicated to the destruction of Israel, And we need to 565 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 2: provide some kind of political path, some hope for the 566 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 2: Palestine inside, so that we don't descend into this again. 567 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 2: That's what I hope happens. But to be frank, I 568 00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,000 Speaker 2: don't know. I just don't think that the discourse is 569 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 2: that far ahead. You still have a Prime Minister Netanyahu 570 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,000 Speaker 2: who in order to have that policy you would need him. 571 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,719 Speaker 1: To go Ah Andrea Son. If we do come out 572 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 1: of this, if we come out of this with a 573 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 1: new role for the Palestinian authority, is that a possibility 574 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 1: or are we just likely to see years of prolonged 575 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: cast and conflict. I'm a Palestinian side too. 576 00:33:58,920 --> 00:33:59,040 Speaker 2: Well. 577 00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 3: No, we touched it when we were talking about that 578 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 3: Berlin Wall. But I feel this conflict is more intractable 579 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,400 Speaker 3: in a way than the Cold War was. And that's 580 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 3: the sad thing, is this eternal return to the not 581 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,920 Speaker 3: the better angels, but the worse angels of our nature, 582 00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,840 Speaker 3: of their nature. But as Mark said, after this, whenever 583 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 3: and however this ends, Israel must understand that it must 584 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:26,440 Speaker 3: help this Palestinis succeed in their Statelet in their proto state. 585 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,400 Speaker 3: It must want them to succeed, because the alternatives that 586 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:34,400 Speaker 3: they keep failing, and then we revert to this permanent conflict, 587 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:35,719 Speaker 3: and then you have permanent conflict. 588 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 1: How do you make them succeed? 589 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 3: That will require, in part, the next Israeli government to 590 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 3: take on the Israeli far right and other settlers, and 591 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 3: they must understand we must now make our former enemies 592 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:56,359 Speaker 3: succeed in order to turn them into future neighbors. And 593 00:34:56,400 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 3: that is incredibly hard, and I'm not sure that will 594 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,960 Speaker 3: happen ever or in our lifetime, but that is the 595 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 3: only way out. 596 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,520 Speaker 1: A last question for each of you. For Mark first, 597 00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 1: what have you learned since the Guyza conflict began that 598 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:12,800 Speaker 1: you didn't know before? 599 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 2: I think I did not understand like the Israelis. I think. 600 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,839 Speaker 2: I mean I was familiar with Hamas, but I did 601 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:30,319 Speaker 2: not understand how carefully they had been preparing and how 602 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,239 Speaker 2: frankly efficiently they had been preparing for this. And they 603 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:41,800 Speaker 2: are a more dangerous fighting force than I perhaps had expected. 604 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 2: One of the things that really intrigues me about this 605 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 2: is whether what went on in Ukraine would have been 606 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:54,360 Speaker 2: carefully watched by them. This sort of asymmetric warfare. What 607 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,480 Speaker 2: Hammas did is at a different level to what you know. 608 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,399 Speaker 2: Terrissare always gaged an asymmetric warfare, but this was at 609 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:04,359 Speaker 2: a different level with you know, sort of combined force operations, 610 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 2: you know, AirLand and sea, drones, hang gliders, et cetera. 611 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,239 Speaker 2: And just the fact that you know, a much smaller 612 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:17,840 Speaker 2: force in Ukraine was able to force back the second 613 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 2: largest military in the world. Who nobody thought that was possible. 614 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 2: That's one of the questions in my mind as to 615 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,479 Speaker 2: whether you know we are in an era when there 616 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:31,080 Speaker 2: is an optimism for smaller forces that they can do 617 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:34,120 Speaker 2: this type of thing because they've seen the Ukrainians do it. 618 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 1: And Andrea, the same question for you, what have you 619 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 1: learned since the Gaza conflict began that you didn't know 620 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 1: before I learned, or. 621 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 3: Maybe I was just reminded of something that I had 622 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 3: been starting to deny, that it takes such hard, long, 623 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,040 Speaker 3: slow work to find the better, to move toward the 624 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,319 Speaker 3: better angels of our nature. And I think in the 625 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,719 Speaker 3: Middle East, not in Ukraine and other places, but they 626 00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:01,840 Speaker 3: were doing it somehow, And then it is so easy 627 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,680 Speaker 3: and quick and abrupt to go all the way back, 628 00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 3: and there's always a new nadi or new bottom in 629 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,839 Speaker 3: human nature below the brutality. The details of it were 630 00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 3: just more shocking than I thought we were capable of nowadays, 631 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 3: and so it is a very dark and negative note 632 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,160 Speaker 3: to end on. But I just learned it's easier to 633 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 3: go all the way down than to climb that little 634 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 3: step up. And of course it's disheartening because at some 635 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,600 Speaker 3: point we'll have to take the first small step up again, 636 00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,839 Speaker 3: knowing that we can all go all the way to 637 00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:37,880 Speaker 3: the bottom any moment. 638 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,400 Speaker 1: We are out of time. Mark and Andreas, thanks for 639 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,760 Speaker 1: joining us today and stay safe in Israel. Mark, thank you, Andreas, 640 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: and I will be watching from Afar here in New 641 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,279 Speaker 1: York and Washington. Mark Champion can also be found on 642 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:55,640 Speaker 1: Twitter at Mark Champion one. Andrea's Kloth's handle is at 643 00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,839 Speaker 1: Andrea's Klouth. Their writing and their videos can be found 644 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg Opinion web site. Here at crash Course, 645 00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 1: we believe that collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising, 646 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:12,400 Speaker 1: and always instructive. In today's crash Course, I learned that 647 00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:16,399 Speaker 1: Hamas is even more murderous and ruthless than anyone might 648 00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,600 Speaker 1: have imagined in recent years, but I've also learned that 649 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,080 Speaker 1: it's important to separate Hamas from the Palestinian people. 650 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 2: What did you learn? 651 00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,840 Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. You can tweet at 652 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,439 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Opinion, handle at Opinion or me at Tim 653 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:35,919 Speaker 1: O'Brien using the hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course. You can also 654 00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,520 Speaker 1: subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now, and 655 00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,200 Speaker 1: please leave us a review. It helps more people find 656 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:45,040 Speaker 1: the show. This episode was produced by the indispensable Ana 657 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 1: Maserakas and me. Our supervising producer is Magnus Hendrickson, and 658 00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 1: we had editing help from Sage Bauman, Jeff Grocott, Mike 659 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:57,319 Speaker 1: Nize and Christine Vanden Bilert. Blake Maple says. Our sound 660 00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 1: engineering and our original theme song was posed by Luis Gara. 661 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:05,320 Speaker 1: I'm Tim O'Brien. We'll be back next week with another 662 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:05,960 Speaker 1: Crash Course