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Speaker 1: The Hamas attack on October seven sent shockwaves around the globe.

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Speaker 1: We begin tonight with the Middle East in flames.

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Speaker 2: Israel has formally declared war after that unprecedented, multi pronged

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Speaker 2: terror attack from Hamas.

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Speaker 3: The new fears the surprise attack could spark an even

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Speaker 3: wider Middle East war. Today, the Pentagon ordered US warships

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Speaker 3: and forces in the region to move closer to Israel,

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Speaker 3: including that.

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Speaker 1: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is certainly not

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Speaker 1: the only one taking place right now. Russia's warn Ukraine

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Speaker 1: will soon enter its third year of fighting. Recent world

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Speaker 1: events and the question of here will be the next

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Speaker 1: US president have some allies wondering about how much military

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Speaker 1: aid to keep providing Ukraine, with the White House has

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Speaker 1: war in Congress that the United States is running out

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Speaker 1: of money for Ukraine. Official say this will affect Kiev's

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Speaker 1: ability to defend itself from Russia.

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Speaker 3: Tonight, Republican senators blocked a White House request for more

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Speaker 3: than one hundred billion dollars in emergency aid, primarily for

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Speaker 3: Ukraine and Israel.

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Speaker 4: Congress Republics and Congress has are willing to give put

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Speaker 4: the greatest gift he could hope for and abandon our

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Speaker 4: global leadership, not just Ukraine, but beyond that.

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Speaker 1: I'm joined by Bloomberg's Kiv bureau chief Dasha krasno Lutska

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Speaker 1: and Alberta now Deli, who's corresponding at large for Europe,

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Speaker 1: to discuss this more.

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Speaker 2: I heard from some law officials that maybe you know

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Speaker 2: there will be no aid for Ukraine at all if

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Speaker 2: Trump takes the seat, and then what The.

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Speaker 4: Bottom line is very simple. You cannot fight a war

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Speaker 4: if you don't have artillery, and currently Ukraine is receiving

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Speaker 4: less artillery than Russia is able to produce.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Roslin matheson today on the big take.

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Speaker 1: How is the Israel Hamas War affecting the conflict between

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Speaker 1: Russia and Ukraine. Your reporting begins by describing the day

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Speaker 1: that Ukrainian President Vladimir Lensky arrived at the NATO headquarters

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Speaker 1: in October the eleventh. I was in fact in Brussels

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Speaker 1: during his visit, and indeed when he made his first

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Speaker 1: visit to Brussels since the war in early twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: and the contrast was quite striking to me. But Dasha,

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Speaker 1: can you start by talking a bit about Zelensky's goal

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Speaker 1: going into that NATO meeting.

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Speaker 2: At that time, it was clear that Ukraine's controversy was

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Speaker 2: about to wrap up as the weather was supposed to deteriorate,

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Speaker 2: so surely he came there to update how the partners

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Speaker 2: about the battlefield. That probably one of his main goals

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Speaker 2: was to ensure that partners will continue to support Ukraine

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Speaker 2: with ear defense. One of the key challenges that Ukraine

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Speaker 2: is facing now whether Ukraine will be able to survive

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Speaker 2: what is expected to be Russian missile attacks or drawn

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Speaker 2: attacks at energy infrastructure, exactly what happened last winter. Since

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Speaker 2: last winter, Ukraine got some additional ear defense from partners,

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Speaker 2: but of course it's never enough. Russia pulled out of

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Speaker 2: the grain deal and Ukraine established it's own corrido to

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Speaker 2: expert greens, and since then Russia constantly attacked Ukrainian port infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: So Ukraine was asking partners to provide some additional defense

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Speaker 2: for that particular region.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting you talk about things that have changed in

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Speaker 1: recent times in Alberto. I'm interested in your view about

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Speaker 1: the atmosphere at that meeting. I mean, I remember again

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Speaker 1: when Sinsky first turned up in Brussels and it was

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Speaker 1: February this year. Just the huge crowds, the feeling of

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Speaker 1: a moment, all the officials, you know, rushing to see him.

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Speaker 1: It contrasted a bit with what we saw at this

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Speaker 1: NATO meeting. Can you talk a bit about that.

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Speaker 4: First of all, the main difference is that the first

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Speaker 4: meeting was ahead of the counter offensive. There were very

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Speaker 4: high expectations that through the counter offensive Ukraine would take

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Speaker 4: back significant chunks of territory that Russia has illegally occupied.

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Speaker 4: There were lots of promises and pledges. The big difference

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Speaker 4: with the second meeting is, first of all, it was

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Speaker 4: shortly after an attack on Israel.

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Speaker 2: We have breaking news out of Israel this morning where

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Speaker 2: Hamas has launched a surprise attack within Israel's borders overnight first.

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Speaker 4: Which distracted lots of attention away from Ukraine. Even if

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Speaker 4: it doesn't make much of a substantive difference on the

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Speaker 4: ground to Ukraine, still, the countries involved in following events

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Speaker 4: and their concerns are taken up by another war. And

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Speaker 4: the second main difference is that a lot of those

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Speaker 4: promises that were made earlier in the year are not

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Speaker 4: being met by many allies. Is one of the reasons

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Speaker 4: why the counter offensive has not lived up to expectations

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Speaker 4: and the mood going into next year is not great.

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Speaker 1: There's been a rising sense of frustration in a way

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Speaker 1: with NATO and some European states that was already building

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Speaker 1: before the Israel Hamas war kicked off.

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Speaker 4: There was and there probably is still definitely some frustration

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Speaker 4: on the Ukrainian side. So Ukraine wanted much stronger invitation

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Speaker 4: to join the military Alliance. Some countries, most notably the

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Speaker 4: United States and Germany, did not want to provide that

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Speaker 4: strong invitation.

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Speaker 2: President Zelensky has accused NATO of weakness and uncertainty over

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Speaker 2: the reluctance of some members to set a timetable for

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Speaker 2: Ukraine to join the Military Alliance.

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Speaker 4: NATO leaders there is probably frustration that some of the

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Speaker 4: promises around weapons and specifically artillery are not being met.

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Speaker 4: And the bottom line is very simple. You cannot fight

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Speaker 4: a war if you don't have artillery, and currently Ukraine

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Speaker 4: is receiving less artillery than Russia is able to produce.

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Speaker 1: And speaking of artillery, Dasha, could you just describe a

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Speaker 1: bit what actually happened in the outcome of the meeting

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Speaker 1: and your observations about Presidents Lensky's reactions to the meeting.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine realized that it won't get as many artillery shells,

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Speaker 2: and it's expected it adds lots of frustration on the

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Speaker 2: battlefield as well. Ultily remains one of the key weapons

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Speaker 2: in this war, because basically both sides are in trenches

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Speaker 2: and they use ultiately a lot to attack each other.

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Speaker 2: And of course this war that broke out in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East didn't help at all. We know that Pentagon

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Speaker 2: sent some shells to Israel, which means less for Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: and in general, as President Zelenski said, focus was shifting

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Speaker 2: from Ukraine to Israel, and that's what was very frustrating

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Speaker 2: for Ukraine and remains very frustrating for Ukraine. The level

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Speaker 2: of concern was already very high when the Hamas Israel

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Speaker 2: war started.

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Speaker 1: We know, of course that there are weapons that Israel

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Speaker 1: needs that Ukraine also needs. We know that there are

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Speaker 1: limits on the ability of defense companies to produce stuff

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Speaker 1: at Spade or to ramp up at Spade. But realistically,

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Speaker 1: how much is it diverting physical weapons away from Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that many to make a difference on

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Speaker 4: the ground in Ukraine. That's what most of the reporting suggests. However,

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Speaker 4: what the reporting does also show is that there is

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Speaker 4: a problem, particularly in Europe, but to an extent also

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Speaker 4: in the United States, which is very simply put that

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Speaker 4: European countries do not have significant stockpiles of artillery. They

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Speaker 4: didn't have significant stockpiles of artillery in the first place,

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Speaker 4: and it seemed that there is a mix of capacity.

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Speaker 4: Like you say, it takes companies time to ramp up.

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Speaker 4: Let's not forget that Russia is in a war economy,

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Speaker 4: so it is having twenty four hour a day shifts,

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Speaker 4: seven days a week, all day. It is all that

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Speaker 4: they are doing. Basically a third of their public expenditure

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Speaker 4: is dedicated to the war and to producing these weapons

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Speaker 4: and artillery, trying to get components wherever they can. It's

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Speaker 4: literally the primary focus in Europe. The primary focus is

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Speaker 4: not the war in Ukraine, it will be voters concerns

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Speaker 4: on the cost of living or other issues education, et cetera,

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Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. But there is also an element

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Speaker 4: of political will in the sense that, for example, a

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Speaker 4: story that we did recently looks at the contracts that

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Speaker 4: European governments have signed with these companies, and the contracts

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Speaker 4: are relatively small. They are small in terms of the

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Speaker 4: amount of money that's being put into them, and they

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Speaker 4: are small in terms of time frame. Companies have said,

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Speaker 4: we need big contracts, long term contracts, because it takes

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Speaker 4: time to build these things. Most European countries, especially countries

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Speaker 4: in Western Europe, have not signed those contracts, have not

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Speaker 4: put in those requests.

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Speaker 1: And why is that the case? Is it political will?

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Speaker 1: In the Western part of Europe in particular? Is there

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Speaker 1: a concern amongst some of these European nations that they've

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Speaker 1: deplay did their own coffers so much that the first

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Speaker 1: thing they need to do is actually shore up their

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Speaker 1: own stock piles at home.

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Speaker 4: I think there is an argument to make that those

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Speaker 4: coffers were very slim to begin with. What the war

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Speaker 4: has shown is that Europe is completely unprepared for a

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Speaker 4: war like the one that is being fought in Ukraine,

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Speaker 4: so a war that we had not seen on European

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Speaker 4: soil for decades. Most of the stocks that have been

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Speaker 4: sent to Ukraine have actually come from Eastern European countries,

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Speaker 4: relatively speaking, and from old Soviet type stocks because those

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Speaker 4: countries had larger stocks because they are closer to Russia

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Speaker 4: and more scared of Russia. On your first question about

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Speaker 4: the political will, I do not have a definitive answer

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Speaker 4: to that, because at the end of the day, only Macron, Maloney,

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Speaker 4: Shorts Sanchez can answer that question. One theory that I've

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Speaker 4: heard is that most of these countries are more interested

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Speaker 4: in investing money in next generation fighter jets in the

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Speaker 4: weapons that they might need for the battles that they

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Speaker 4: might one day fight. So they're trying to find the

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Speaker 4: balance between investing just enough to send to Ukraine, but

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Speaker 4: not enough to fully meet those requirements because probably they

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Speaker 4: still believe that they will never need to use them.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting, though, Alberta, because the last two was that

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Speaker 1: we've seen of late to very much involve what you

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Speaker 1: think of his old school traditional equipment, including again artillery

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Speaker 1: and ammunition. And to that point, Dasha, Ukraine itself is

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Speaker 1: trying very hard to ramp up its own industry, very

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Speaker 1: aware that it's so reliant on the US and European nations.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk a little bit about those efforts to

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Speaker 1: build the domestic armaments industry in Ukraine. How is that

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Speaker 1: going and what challenges are they facing.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine was a huge producer of weapons during the Soviet

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Speaker 2: period and it remained actually one of the world's weapons

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Speaker 2: exporter after the use of sukolops. But all those plants,

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Speaker 2: they were first producer Soviet types weapons, and Ukraine wants

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Speaker 2: to switch to the NATO type new weapons. Technologies were lost.

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Speaker 2: We don't have that many engineers now. So Ukraine realized

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Speaker 2: after this full scale invasion that it cannot allow itself

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Speaker 2: to rely that much on the partners and is now

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Speaker 2: seeking to increase its own production. While the government is

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Speaker 2: very reluctant to give us any details or what they

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Speaker 2: have achieved. Recently, President Zelenski had a meeting and where

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Speaker 2: he said that he's quite pleased with the pace how

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Speaker 2: much Ukraine managed to produce this year. President Zelenski is

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Speaker 2: sure that actually Ukraine can find money to build its

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Speaker 2: own plants and to produce those weapons. Drones appeared as

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Speaker 2: the one of the key elements of this wall. And

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Speaker 2: again if last year Ukraine managed to produce and to

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Speaker 2: get quite many so called FPV drones, relatively cheap drone

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Speaker 2: that carries some explosive devices. Russia looked at that and

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Speaker 2: Russia is very good at putting production at a huge

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Speaker 2: level pretty quickly, and now Russia produces lots of those

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Speaker 2: FPV drones, and yeah, Ukraine cannot cope with that unfortunately.

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Speaker 1: After the break how the twenty twenty four US presidential

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Speaker 1: election could shape the future of the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Earlier on, we were talking about the very immediate term,

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Speaker 1: which is the recent meetings with NATO, coming into the

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Speaker 1: winter in Ukraine and the outlook on the Battlefeld, especially

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Speaker 1: with the Israel Hamas conflict going on. But let's talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit more about stuff that's slightly further out,

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Speaker 1: including the US election late in twenty twenty four, because

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Speaker 1: it could impact support for Ukraine Alberto, depending on whether

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Speaker 1: it's Joe Biden or potentially Donald Trump back in the

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Speaker 1: White House.

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Speaker 4: I think if we look at lots of the issues

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Speaker 4: that we've toald talked about so far, producing artillery and

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Speaker 4: providing more weapons longer term commitments, many of these will

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Speaker 4: not come to fruition next year. It is more likely

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Speaker 4: than not that there won't be a decisive breakthrough in

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Speaker 4: the fighting next year because of this lack of capabilities

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Speaker 4: and manpower being another big unknown factor. So there is

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Speaker 4: lots of concern in parts of Europe, in Ukraine two

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Speaker 4: about what happens in the United States next year. The

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Speaker 4: US is the number one ally and partner, and no

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Speaker 4: other country or block of countries can match its support.

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Speaker 4: So what happens in the US matters fundamentally, and it's

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Speaker 4: probably the number one variable in terms of what of

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Speaker 4: how this war will end or may end one day.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious, Dasher on that note, how much is Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump being talked about in Kiev respect of the return

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Speaker 1: of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee possibly a Republican

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Speaker 1: president again? Are you hearing his name a lot in Kiev?

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Speaker 1: How worried is President Zinsky and his inner circle that

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Speaker 1: he might return?

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Speaker 2: People are whispering about him. I heard from some law

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Speaker 2: officials that maybe you know there will be no aid

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Speaker 2: for Ukraine at all if Trump takes the seat, and

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Speaker 2: then what And.

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Speaker 1: You've talked about how Ukraine is pressing the US under

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Speaker 1: the current administration, at least with Congress to try and

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Speaker 1: get more of this aid committed asap.

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Speaker 2: It's very unclear how Ukraine will be able to finance

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Speaker 2: its budget next year. Ukraine finances the war using its

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Speaker 2: own money from Texas, but the rest like salaries, pensions, hospitals, education,

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Speaker 2: everything comes from the money of the partners. And again

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Speaker 2: the is the key provider of that aid, together with

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Speaker 2: the European Union, and for the time being, there is

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Speaker 2: no clarity whether the US will give Ukraine what Ukraine

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Speaker 2: expects to get. And second question is of course about

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Speaker 2: weapons and military at the moment. Actually, as you know,

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Speaker 2: there is this stalemate on the battlefield, and Russia steps

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Speaker 2: up pressure in several parts of Ukraine, particularly in the

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Speaker 2: eastern Donyezk region, and people of course think that Russia

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Speaker 2: will try to advance feather and the question is what

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Speaker 2: Ukraine will have and its possession to be able to

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Speaker 2: fight back.

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Speaker 1: Alberta, can you talk a little bit about just what

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Speaker 1: is holding things up?

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Speaker 4: The main issue seems to be that debate has become

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Speaker 4: a political issue. So there are parts of the Republican

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Speaker 4: Party whose argument very simply puts, is why are we

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Speaker 4: sending money to Ukraine when we don't have enough money

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Speaker 4: for or people here in America. And I think it

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Speaker 4: will become increasingly difficult beyond this specific debate once the

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Speaker 4: election campaign begins, because American elections tend not to be

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Speaker 4: very sober affairs, and so you can already predict that

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Speaker 4: there will be candidates who will use this as an issue,

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Speaker 4: and it will say, why are we paying Ukrainian teachers

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Speaker 4: when American teachers in my state don't earn a lot

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Speaker 4: of money, so on and so forth. Ukraine's fate will

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Speaker 4: get tangled up in those political debates. In the European Union,

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Speaker 4: the issue is slightly different in the sense that you

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Speaker 4: have two main issues. One is you have some countries

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Speaker 4: like Hungary who are blocking the funding, and then you

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Speaker 4: have a technical debate where it's being caught up in

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Speaker 4: the larger EU debate about its budget and increasing that budget,

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Speaker 4: and there is a debate on whether the whole budget

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Speaker 4: should be increase and secondly how it should be structured,

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Speaker 4: and thirdly if the money that goes to Ukraine should

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Speaker 4: be grants or loans. Some countries are arguing, we've given

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Speaker 4: lots of money to Ukraine bilaterally, and so we believe

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Speaker 4: that that money should be counted towards the overall pot

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Speaker 4: and so on and so forth. So it's a mix

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Speaker 4: of issues, but I think the bottom line, beyond the

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Speaker 4: technicalities is that it's got caught up in politics really, and.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned Hungary and Hungary's objections equally at the same time,

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Speaker 1: you know, not all countries in Eastern Europe, but taking

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Speaker 1: that line, and there remains quite a strong support for Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: particular in the Eastern flank. For a bunch of reasons.

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Speaker 4: The Hungarian case is unique in the European Union in

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Speaker 4: the sense that you have other countries who may have

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Speaker 4: specific issues. For example, because I don't know, they're super

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Speaker 4: dependent on Russian oil, they don't want certain sanctions because

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Speaker 4: they need to keep import in oil. You have certain

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Speaker 4: countries who are super dependent on gas or other imports

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Speaker 4: and they don't want to cut ties because of that.

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Speaker 4: The Hungarian case is unique because no other European country

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Speaker 4: is effectively undermining some of the support that europe is

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Speaker 4: trying to put for Ukraine. Be it they are blocking

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Speaker 4: the European Peace Facility and Dispersements for that. That's a

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Speaker 4: fund that reimburses countries that have provided Ukraine with weapons.

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Speaker 4: There is a backlog there now. They say that they

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Speaker 4: want to block the progress in Ukraine's European Union membership.

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Speaker 4: They say that they don't want to send more money

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Speaker 4: to Ukraine. They don't want more sanctions, they want to

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Speaker 4: remove some of the sanctions that exist. And if you

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Speaker 4: look at the types of measures that they want to

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Speaker 4: remove or change, they are not measures that directly impact

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Speaker 4: the Hungarian economy. The question why is Hungary so pro

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Speaker 4: Russia is a question to which I do not have

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Speaker 4: an answer. I'm afraid coming up.

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Speaker 1: Could Ukraine be pushed into premature peace talks if Western

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Speaker 1: aid diminishes. We've been talking in this conversation about the

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Speaker 1: challenges for Ukraine as this war goes on, and you

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Speaker 1: know what we're seeing as the challenges in keeping support

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Speaker 1: from Europe, the US and elsewhere. Dasha, can you talk

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Speaker 1: a bit about what that might mean in terms of

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Speaker 1: prodding Ukraine or Ukraine feeling it has no choice but

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Speaker 1: to go to the negotiating table.

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Speaker 2: Ukrainians so far have demonstrated as strong will to fight

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Speaker 2: till the very end, and till the very end it

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Speaker 2: means that Ukraine restores its borders of nineteen ninety one,

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Speaker 2: and in that way, Ukrainians believe, basically this is the

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Speaker 2: only way how it can ensure that Russia won't attack again.

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Speaker 2: Because they had a kind of a frozen conflict since

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Speaker 2: twenty fourteen in the Ukraine's still easternmost regions. This experience

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Speaker 2: with a frozen conflict that tend into a massive, full

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Speaker 2: scale invasion tells Ukrainians that frozen conflict is not the

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Speaker 2: way out. However, especially after Ukrainians discovered what Russians did

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Speaker 2: near Kiev in places like Butcha or Irpin or Boradanka

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Speaker 2: that became known throughout the world.

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Speaker 5: Horrific scenes in Butcher today with the towns may saying

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Speaker 5: they've discovered at these two mass graves as Russian troops

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Speaker 5: left areas around the capital Kiev, and we should.

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Speaker 2: Obviously Krinians were very angry, very upset with Russians and

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Speaker 2: kind of had this determination to fight with them. However,

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Speaker 2: as the time passes, apart from all the challenges that

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Speaker 2: come from smaller than expected aid from Western partners, smaller

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Speaker 2: than expected supply of weapons, et cetera, et cetera, there

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Speaker 2: is a fatigue here as well. Every day we have

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Speaker 2: lots of funerals. If you visit a random cemetery in

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Speaker 2: a random small town or village, you will see too

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Speaker 2: many new graves. Unfortunately, there are people who are fighting

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Speaker 2: already for most two years and their families they want

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Speaker 2: them to be back home. The problem is that mobilization

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Speaker 2: at the moment is not going well. Those people who

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Speaker 2: wanted to join the army, they basically joined it. In

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, when Russia just started invasion, there were

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Speaker 2: huge lines to military centers as people wanted to sign

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Speaker 2: up for the army. Now it's a completely different situation.

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Speaker 2: We are now facing the second winter of the invasion.

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Speaker 2: People do expect another massive attacks at Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Still,

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Speaker 2: majority of people say that they are not ready for

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Speaker 2: any territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for peace. It

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Speaker 2: depends on where you live, right, if you live in

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Speaker 2: western Ukraine, it's easier for you. If you live in

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Speaker 2: the south of Ukraine, of course it's harder for you.

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Speaker 2: So those people who live in the east or in

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Speaker 2: the south, they are more willing to compromise with Russia.

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Speaker 1: And does that open the door potentially for Presidents Lensky

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Speaker 1: to edge towards that if there is that slight shift

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Speaker 1: in public mood, that fatigue that you talk about coming

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Speaker 1: up to the second year mark of this conflict and

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Speaker 1: people saying well okay, especially in the East and the

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Speaker 1: south where it's been grinding that war. You know what,

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Speaker 1: We're tired of it and if we can just negotiate

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Speaker 1: something that makes it stop. Does that open the door

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Speaker 1: for him to potentially get towards negotiations.

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Speaker 2: For that, it needs to be more people willing to compromise.

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Speaker 2: So far we haven't reached that critical level. One of

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Speaker 2: his key goals is to ensure that Russia will want

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Speaker 2: to tag again. That is forcible, they believe, either through

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Speaker 2: the NATO membership or through some security guarantees, so that

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Speaker 2: Ukraine is now negotiating with its partners.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting on security guarantees, of course, because so far

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Speaker 1: what we've seen is the US and Europe say very

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Speaker 1: clearly they're not going to commit to putting man Pau

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Speaker 1: on the ground in this conflict. And speaking of that, Alberto,

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Speaker 1: are you seeing shifts again in the tone from the

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Speaker 1: US and some European leaders which are edging towards the

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Speaker 1: idea that Ukraine will need to agree to negotiate before

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Speaker 1: too long.

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Speaker 4: There is definitely a darkening of the mood in the

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Speaker 4: sense that the situation on the ground has not changed.

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Speaker 4: There is the realization that it is unlikely to change

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Speaker 4: decisively next year. There's a big concern about the potential

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Speaker 4: of Trump returning. So that's the first question to ask,

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Speaker 4: would it be better to talk now or to risk

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Speaker 4: it when Trump is in office. Fundamentally, to have peace talks,

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Speaker 4: you would need Ukraine and Russia to want to talk,

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Speaker 4: and both sides to come to the conclusion that time

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Speaker 4: is not on their side. Until that happens, it is

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Speaker 4: very unlikely that there will be talks. From Russia's perspective,

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Speaker 4: I am guessing that Putin believes that at the very

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Speaker 4: least he should wait and see what happens in the

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Speaker 4: US election. And from Ukraine's perspective, it has made clear

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Speaker 4: that it does not want to lose more territory, and

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Speaker 4: once first security guarantees that this can never happen again.

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Speaker 1: A better I mentioned Vladimir Putin and perhaps the feeling

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Speaker 1: that he can wait to see how the US election

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Speaker 1: cycle turns. But also he's got his own election coming up,

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Speaker 1: possibly early next year, and the prospect very much of

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Speaker 1: another term for Vladimir Putin in Russia, which must give

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Speaker 1: him the sense perhaps that time is on his side

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Speaker 1: in this one.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think if you look, now, I think it's

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Speaker 4: not a big scoop to say that Putin is going

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Speaker 4: to win the next election if you look at the

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Speaker 4: situation now. His view, and it is probably backed by facts,

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Speaker 4: is that time, at least until the US election, is

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Speaker 4: on his side because he has more artillery. Russia has

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Speaker 4: been able to produce more artillery than Europe and the

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Speaker 4: US combined. Second element in terms of time, which he

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Speaker 4: will see is in his favor is that Russia has

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Speaker 4: way more people. Russia broadly speaking, has been able to

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Speaker 4: replace the number of losses it has had on the battlefield.

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Speaker 4: And then put in seas what's happening in America, And

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Speaker 4: he said, I'm going to wait and see how this

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Speaker 4: plays out.

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Speaker 1: Dasha. We've talked a lot about where we are now,

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Speaker 1: We've talked quite a bit about where we might be

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Speaker 1: in a year from now. But in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of months, what should people look for when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the conflict itself.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine promised to continue its advances as much as possible

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Speaker 2: during wintertime. Ukraine is expecting to get those F sixteen

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Speaker 2: earplanes as soon as early twenty twenty four. F sixteen

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Speaker 2: is another milestone for Ukraine. However, again that's what Ukrainians

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Speaker 2: are very much concerned now, what will happen with the

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Speaker 2: energy infrastructure. According to Ukraine's intelligence plus a guest, so

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Speaker 2: we have the same from the Western intelligence. Russia still

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Speaker 2: manages to produce around one hundred missiles a month, and

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Speaker 2: Russia has not attacked Ukraine with many missiles for a

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Speaker 2: long time, so it means that it should have quite

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Speaker 2: a decent number in stockpiles as of now. Ukrainians are

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Speaker 2: very much concerned that as soon as the temperature will

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Speaker 2: plunge around to minus ten or something like that, when

441
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 2: it would be really cold, then Russia would launch those

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00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 2: two hundred missiles at once. That it will allow Russia

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00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 2: to overwhelm Ukraine's ear defense system, which is for example

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00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 2: in Kiev, thanks to our Western partners, is pretty solid.

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00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 4: I do think. Also it's worth mentioning that there are

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00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 4: lots of unknown variables that could also change dynamics, because,

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00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 4: for example, we've said several times lots of the challenges

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00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 4: are about political will. The flip side of political will

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00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 4: is that politicians change their current positions. We've seen countries

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00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 4: say we will not send tanks, we will not send

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00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 4: this weapon, we will not do this, and then they do.

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Speaker 4: On Russia itself, there are unknowns. We saw when Pregosion

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Speaker 4: did his rampage towards Moscow ultimately unsuccessful, but not many

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00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 4: people had predicted that. And the bottom line is when

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Speaker 4: you are spending so much economic resource fundamentally on one thing,

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00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 4: which is war, you cannot do that forever. Russia is

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00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 4: highly dependent for components on China. Eighty percent of EU

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00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 4: sanctions evasion is now taking place through China. Little tweaks

459
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 4: in China's attitude towards that could have an impact on

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00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 4: Russia's ability to keep making the drones, the missiles, artillery,

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Speaker 4: because Russia depends on other countries helping it to get

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Speaker 4: around sanctions to be able to produce those weapons.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Dasha, thank you, Alberto, thank you, thank you.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take.

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