WEBVTT - Former World Bank President Talks Trump Second Term Economic Impacts

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, Colorado Springs, Colorado. Thank you for listening on Applecarplay,

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<v Speaker 1>Android Auto. When you're a young cherub and you go

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<v Speaker 1>to Colorado College, you study physics, which is what David

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<v Speaker 1>Malpass did joining as a former president of the World Bank.

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<v Speaker 1>Iconic at bear Sterns years ago. David Malpast darkens the

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<v Speaker 1>door this morning. Casey has yet to concede. In Pennsylvania. Tuberville,

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<v Speaker 1>the football coach, dragged you into the Senate.

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<v Speaker 2>He said, we need Senate testimony from.

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<v Speaker 1>David Malpass on you know, global economics and all that.

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<v Speaker 1>You're one of the few people I know that's actually

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<v Speaker 1>been in the trenches in the United States Senate. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you see with this new administration, David, with your affiliation

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<v Speaker 1>with the Republicans, do you see a suddenness rapid movement

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<v Speaker 1>between the executive and the legislative branch?

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<v Speaker 3>Or will it be slower and more iterative? And that's

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<v Speaker 3>a great question and issue. I think it'll be pretty

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<v Speaker 3>fast because there really is a mandate from the country

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<v Speaker 3>to bring change.

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<v Speaker 2>Then, how do you see a mandate?

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<v Speaker 1>I've got Vice President Harrison narrow it down to fifty forty.

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<v Speaker 1>It's something like two hundred and thirty eight thousand votes

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<v Speaker 1>and three swing states. I got a guy in a

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<v Speaker 1>San Joaquin Valley right now, Republican winning by under.

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<v Speaker 2>Three hundred votes.

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<v Speaker 1>If the Democrats take west of Fresno, it's one more

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<v Speaker 1>Democrat in the House.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not a mandate, David, I beg to differ. So

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<v Speaker 4>it means all seven of the swing states were one.

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<v Speaker 4>And if you look at all the demographics, in other words,

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<v Speaker 4>each but if you parse it by age, if you

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<v Speaker 4>parsh it by skills, you get people wanting change. And

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<v Speaker 4>so that means the Senate is going to come let's

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<v Speaker 4>come to your question. There's a turnover, a very important

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<v Speaker 4>turnover of the majority leader, and you know, the staff

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<v Speaker 4>on all the committees turns over, and so there will

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<v Speaker 4>be people whose lifeblood is not regulating, and so that

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<v Speaker 4>means a big change in how the Senate operates. Of course,

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<v Speaker 4>it's the deliberative body, and it will take time to

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<v Speaker 4>get some stuff done. But I'd imagine there's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be a tax movement on the tax front very quickly,

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<v Speaker 4>of course, on energy and on on on trade where

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<v Speaker 4>the system is broken. So you'll see all of that moving,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, month by month pretty rapidly.

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<v Speaker 5>What do you think of some of the president's cabinet

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<v Speaker 5>nominations to date?

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<v Speaker 2>What is it?

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<v Speaker 5>What have you kind of sensed?

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<v Speaker 4>He's well, I think they're great. But what you see

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<v Speaker 4>is him wanting change, change, change, And so that to

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<v Speaker 4>me is the signal coming out of each area. Put

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<v Speaker 4>strong people in that want change. Look at the energy

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<v Speaker 4>pick so Chris, Chris right, Bergham are really strong, Lee Zelden,

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<v Speaker 4>and these are these are the energy side that can

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<v Speaker 4>make you know, if you think about how do you

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<v Speaker 4>make America strong again? And this is peace through strength?

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<v Speaker 4>Where do you get the strength from production? How do

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<v Speaker 4>you do that? You get the energy sector going so

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<v Speaker 4>that you can build all the other things that go

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<v Speaker 4>into an economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but we're like, aren't we like the number one

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<v Speaker 1>energy power in the world now bigger than Saudi Arabia.

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<v Speaker 2>There's an oversupply.

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<v Speaker 1>McGlone says, a barrel of oil is going to twelve

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<v Speaker 1>bucks a barrel.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm kidding, well, stranger, you remember when to ten dollars

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<v Speaker 4>a barrel in the year two nineteen ninety nine and

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<v Speaker 4>two thousand, when the dollar was super strong, overly strong.

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<v Speaker 4>So I don't know that we want it that low,

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<v Speaker 4>but it would be good if it comes down. And

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<v Speaker 4>the bigger thing is the US could be doing so

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<v Speaker 4>much more. You just named parts of the world that

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<v Speaker 4>are plentifully supplied, but there are huge parts of the

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<v Speaker 4>world that don't have enough energy. And think of the

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<v Speaker 4>craziness that we've got because of the lack of pipelines.

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<v Speaker 4>We've got the energy. The LNG goes through the Panama Canal.

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<v Speaker 4>Such a wasteful use of the water. You know, Panama

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<v Speaker 4>Canal is driven by free flowing water that comes from rain,

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<v Speaker 4>and you wash the ships down both sides of the canal,

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<v Speaker 4>and you're doing it to get LNG to Asia from

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<v Speaker 4>the unit from the east coast.

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<v Speaker 2>Build the harbor overlooking they're already San Francisco Giants Stadium.

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<v Speaker 4>That there needs to be some way to get energy

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<v Speaker 4>onto the west coast of either the US or Canada.

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<v Speaker 4>They're building one into Mexico, But how does that really

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<v Speaker 4>help the US if you have to go down through

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<v Speaker 4>Mexico to get your energy out of the out of

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<v Speaker 4>the hymns, it's too much geography.

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<v Speaker 2>With David milpensins, I'll save the conversation.

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<v Speaker 5>Speaking of down in that part of the world. The

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<v Speaker 5>G twenty is just finishing up down in Rio here.

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<v Speaker 5>How do you think President elect Trump views the entities

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<v Speaker 5>organizations like the G twenty and that try to think

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<v Speaker 5>about things on a global basis. How do you think

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<v Speaker 5>he anticipates engaging.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't know how he thinks about it, but it

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<v Speaker 4>should be clear to everyone that that the globalism isn't working.

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<v Speaker 4>This is the giant conferences. Think of that ten literally

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<v Speaker 4>tens of thousands of people. I've had to go to

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<v Speaker 4>these conferences. We recently saw the one in Baku. Think

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<v Speaker 4>of the absurdity of having the climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan,

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<v Speaker 4>which is the conduit for Russian oil coming under the

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<v Speaker 4>sanctions out into the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>So you've got this and.

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<v Speaker 4>Literally it's ten thousand people from that are all trying

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<v Speaker 4>to get government contracts. So it's a climate industrial complex,

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<v Speaker 4>just like the military industrial complex that's so expensive. You

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<v Speaker 4>need to have strong defense for the US, but you

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<v Speaker 4>need to have it in a way that's competitive in

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<v Speaker 4>the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Dato malpess with the former president of the World Bank.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm thrilled that he could join us this morning.

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<v Speaker 2>We welcome all of you on.

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<v Speaker 1>Your commute across nation and of course on YouTube subscribe

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Podcast. I have literally on the desk at home,

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<v Speaker 1>No Trade is Free. I'm going to read it cover

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<v Speaker 1>to cover just to get an understanding of Lightheiser economics.

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<v Speaker 1>You're at Colorado College lecturing EC one O two macroeconomics.

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<v Speaker 1>David Malpass discussed the efficacy of tariffs.

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<v Speaker 4>The system is broken in the world. It was set

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<v Speaker 4>up at a time before China was the number.

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<v Speaker 2>Two world power.

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<v Speaker 4>You had a concept in the sixties and seventies that

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<v Speaker 4>somehow there could be kumbaya that everybody could cover together.

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<v Speaker 4>Everyone formed a deal, and everybody lower.

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<v Speaker 2>Vice President Harris would agree with you.

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<v Speaker 4>And it's completely broken down because you have this giantly

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<v Speaker 4>aggressive commercial power that's not playing by the rules on

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<v Speaker 4>intellectual property, on their overcapacity of manufactured goods.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's a it's a.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, taking away marks from the rest of it.

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<v Speaker 2>Do we need tariffs?

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<v Speaker 1>Did are gradual and marginal or do we need the

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<v Speaker 1>jump condition that the President elect talks about a magnitude

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<v Speaker 1>of tariffs that haven't seen in generations.

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<v Speaker 4>You need to get the world's attention that what they're

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<v Speaker 4>doing is broken. I don't know if you saw, but

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<v Speaker 4>President she was in South America last week and he

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<v Speaker 4>was making the case to all the other world leaders

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<v Speaker 4>to go gradual. And so China is kind of bidding

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<v Speaker 4>for time. They're saying, oh, this is gonna you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we're moving in your direction. And so whether the rest

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<v Speaker 4>of the world buys that, and you know, China often

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<v Speaker 4>pays for it with contracts, with gifts, gifts that can

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<v Speaker 4>be shared in families, and so how do you stop

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<v Speaker 4>that and really get onto a new wavelength with China

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<v Speaker 4>and with the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 5>In fairness, should the US approach to China be one

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<v Speaker 5>of engagement or one of you know, just trying to

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<v Speaker 5>really step back from China.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you think the approach would be?

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<v Speaker 4>I think there has so for too many years now,

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<v Speaker 4>China's been getting what it wants. I saw that in

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<v Speaker 4>the World conferences. They really are winning on the on

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<v Speaker 4>the soft power. And so you have to take that

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<v Speaker 4>back because the US has all the all the ability

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<v Speaker 4>to do this, it just has been choosing not to

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<v Speaker 4>do it. You know, we've been trying to get peace

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<v Speaker 4>through weakness, and so if you switch to peace through strength,

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<v Speaker 4>China is going to change its side of the of

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<v Speaker 4>the discussion as well. They're not. I mean, they've followed

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<v Speaker 4>very closely what's going on in the US, and we'll

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<v Speaker 4>be responding to it. So then you've got to say, Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>we've got a bunch of problems. Here's our list of problems.

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<v Speaker 4>You're producing too much steal with too much coal, with

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<v Speaker 4>and claiming and then pushing climate agenda through the Paris

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<v Speaker 4>Agreement that you're not complying with. We don't like that

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<v Speaker 4>intellectual property you're stealing. You've never let down on stealing

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<v Speaker 4>the intellectual property.

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<v Speaker 1>David, I got one final question, with great respect Tom

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<v Speaker 1>Nichols the Death of Expertise Profound book. I interviewed him

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<v Speaker 1>when it came out. We're trying to get mister Nichols

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<v Speaker 1>on again to talk about it. This is an administration.

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<v Speaker 1>David Malpass has the best English skills of anyone I've

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<v Speaker 1>ever known on Wall Street. You and John Writing were

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<v Speaker 1>prodigious in your economic output for Alan Schwartz at Bear Sterns,

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<v Speaker 1>your physics Colorado collegey You're the real deal on a

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<v Speaker 1>conservative tone. Some of these people have zero expertise. What

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<v Speaker 1>would you say to the President elect right now, if

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<v Speaker 1>these people are pushed aside by Senator.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't think that'll happen.

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<v Speaker 4>But what I think what the president can see is

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<v Speaker 4>that he's clearly on the He's got a powerful path

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<v Speaker 4>that's taxes, energy, that's making Why is he running.

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<v Speaker 1>Then from expertise because there are conservatives like you that

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<v Speaker 1>have their head screwed.

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<v Speaker 4>On a problem is expertise often has meant your inside

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<v Speaker 4>the belt Way with their models, and so if we

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<v Speaker 4>really have to have an upheaval where you shake it

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<v Speaker 4>up with people that have views from outside, I got to.

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<v Speaker 2>Make some news today.

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<v Speaker 1>Have you been called by the president by Susan Are

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<v Speaker 1>you going to serve within the Trump administration?

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<v Speaker 2>Come on news? Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>David Malpass, thank you so much. Formerly with the World Bank,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course running within public office within New York

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<v Speaker 1>State for the Senate.

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<v Speaker 2>I believe it was Did I do that? Okay? You

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<v Speaker 2>have to pick up truck and everything right winter all

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<v Speaker 2>around you survived, Okay.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a great state.

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<v Speaker 2>David Malpass, thank you.