1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: Good morning, Colorado Springs, Colorado. Thank you for listening on Applecarplay, 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: Android Auto. When you're a young cherub and you go 3 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: to Colorado College, you study physics, which is what David 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: Malpass did joining as a former president of the World Bank. 5 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: Iconic at bear Sterns years ago. David Malpast darkens the 6 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: door this morning. Casey has yet to concede. In Pennsylvania. Tuberville, 7 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: the football coach, dragged you into the Senate. 8 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 2: He said, we need Senate testimony from. 9 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: David Malpass on you know, global economics and all that. 10 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: You're one of the few people I know that's actually 11 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: been in the trenches in the United States Senate. Do 12 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: you see with this new administration, David, with your affiliation 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 1: with the Republicans, do you see a suddenness rapid movement 14 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: between the executive and the legislative branch? 15 00:00:55,800 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 3: Or will it be slower and more iterative? And that's 16 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 3: a great question and issue. I think it'll be pretty 17 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 3: fast because there really is a mandate from the country 18 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 3: to bring change. 19 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 2: Then, how do you see a mandate? 20 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: I've got Vice President Harrison narrow it down to fifty forty. 21 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 1: It's something like two hundred and thirty eight thousand votes 22 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 1: and three swing states. I got a guy in a 23 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: San Joaquin Valley right now, Republican winning by under. 24 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: Three hundred votes. 25 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 1: If the Democrats take west of Fresno, it's one more 26 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: Democrat in the House. 27 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 4: It's not a mandate, David, I beg to differ. So 28 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:38,839 Speaker 4: it means all seven of the swing states were one. 29 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 4: And if you look at all the demographics, in other words, 30 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 4: each but if you parse it by age, if you 31 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 4: parsh it by skills, you get people wanting change. And 32 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 4: so that means the Senate is going to come let's 33 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 4: come to your question. There's a turnover, a very important 34 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 4: turnover of the majority leader, and you know, the staff 35 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 4: on all the committees turns over, and so there will 36 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 4: be people whose lifeblood is not regulating, and so that 37 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 4: means a big change in how the Senate operates. Of course, 38 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 4: it's the deliberative body, and it will take time to 39 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 4: get some stuff done. But I'd imagine there's going to 40 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 4: be a tax movement on the tax front very quickly, 41 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 4: of course, on energy and on on on trade where 42 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 4: the system is broken. So you'll see all of that moving, 43 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 4: you know, month by month pretty rapidly. 44 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 5: What do you think of some of the president's cabinet 45 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 5: nominations to date? 46 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 2: What is it? 47 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 5: What have you kind of sensed? 48 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 4: He's well, I think they're great. But what you see 49 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 4: is him wanting change, change, change, And so that to 50 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 4: me is the signal coming out of each area. Put 51 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 4: strong people in that want change. Look at the energy 52 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 4: pick so Chris, Chris right, Bergham are really strong, Lee Zelden, 53 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 4: and these are these are the energy side that can 54 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 4: make you know, if you think about how do you 55 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 4: make America strong again? And this is peace through strength? 56 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 4: Where do you get the strength from production? How do 57 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 4: you do that? You get the energy sector going so 58 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 4: that you can build all the other things that go 59 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:13,799 Speaker 4: into an economy. 60 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, but we're like, aren't we like the number one 61 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: energy power in the world now bigger than Saudi Arabia. 62 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 2: There's an oversupply. 63 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: McGlone says, a barrel of oil is going to twelve 64 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: bucks a barrel. 65 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 4: I'm kidding, well, stranger, you remember when to ten dollars 66 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 4: a barrel in the year two nineteen ninety nine and 67 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 4: two thousand, when the dollar was super strong, overly strong. 68 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 4: So I don't know that we want it that low, 69 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 4: but it would be good if it comes down. And 70 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 4: the bigger thing is the US could be doing so 71 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 4: much more. You just named parts of the world that 72 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 4: are plentifully supplied, but there are huge parts of the 73 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 4: world that don't have enough energy. And think of the 74 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 4: craziness that we've got because of the lack of pipelines. 75 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 4: We've got the energy. The LNG goes through the Panama Canal. 76 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 4: Such a wasteful use of the water. You know, Panama 77 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,119 Speaker 4: Canal is driven by free flowing water that comes from rain, 78 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 4: and you wash the ships down both sides of the canal, 79 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 4: and you're doing it to get LNG to Asia from 80 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 4: the unit from the east coast. 81 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 2: Build the harbor overlooking they're already San Francisco Giants Stadium. 82 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 4: That there needs to be some way to get energy 83 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 4: onto the west coast of either the US or Canada. 84 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 4: They're building one into Mexico, But how does that really 85 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 4: help the US if you have to go down through 86 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 4: Mexico to get your energy out of the out of 87 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 4: the hymns, it's too much geography. 88 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 2: With David milpensins, I'll save the conversation. 89 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 5: Speaking of down in that part of the world. The 90 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 5: G twenty is just finishing up down in Rio here. 91 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 5: How do you think President elect Trump views the entities 92 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 5: organizations like the G twenty and that try to think 93 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 5: about things on a global basis. How do you think 94 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 5: he anticipates engaging. 95 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 4: I don't know how he thinks about it, but it 96 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 4: should be clear to everyone that that the globalism isn't working. 97 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 4: This is the giant conferences. Think of that ten literally 98 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 4: tens of thousands of people. I've had to go to 99 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 4: these conferences. We recently saw the one in Baku. Think 100 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 4: of the absurdity of having the climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, 101 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 4: which is the conduit for Russian oil coming under the 102 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 4: sanctions out into the rest of the world. 103 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 2: So you've got this and. 104 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 4: Literally it's ten thousand people from that are all trying 105 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 4: to get government contracts. So it's a climate industrial complex, 106 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 4: just like the military industrial complex that's so expensive. You 107 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 4: need to have strong defense for the US, but you 108 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 4: need to have it in a way that's competitive in 109 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 4: the world. 110 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 1: Dato malpess with the former president of the World Bank. 111 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: I'm thrilled that he could join us this morning. 112 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 2: We welcome all of you on. 113 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: Your commute across nation and of course on YouTube subscribe 114 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Podcast. I have literally on the desk at home, 115 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 1: No Trade is Free. I'm going to read it cover 116 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: to cover just to get an understanding of Lightheiser economics. 117 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 1: You're at Colorado College lecturing EC one O two macroeconomics. 118 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: David Malpass discussed the efficacy of tariffs. 119 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 4: The system is broken in the world. It was set 120 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 4: up at a time before China was the number. 121 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:27,239 Speaker 2: Two world power. 122 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 4: You had a concept in the sixties and seventies that 123 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 4: somehow there could be kumbaya that everybody could cover together. 124 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 4: Everyone formed a deal, and everybody lower. 125 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 2: Vice President Harris would agree with you. 126 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 4: And it's completely broken down because you have this giantly 127 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 4: aggressive commercial power that's not playing by the rules on 128 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 4: intellectual property, on their overcapacity of manufactured goods. 129 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 2: So it's a it's a. 130 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 4: You know, taking away marks from the rest of it. 131 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 2: Do we need tariffs? 132 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: Did are gradual and marginal or do we need the 133 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: jump condition that the President elect talks about a magnitude 134 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: of tariffs that haven't seen in generations. 135 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 4: You need to get the world's attention that what they're 136 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 4: doing is broken. I don't know if you saw, but 137 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 4: President she was in South America last week and he 138 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 4: was making the case to all the other world leaders 139 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 4: to go gradual. And so China is kind of bidding 140 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 4: for time. They're saying, oh, this is gonna you know, 141 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 4: we're moving in your direction. And so whether the rest 142 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 4: of the world buys that, and you know, China often 143 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 4: pays for it with contracts, with gifts, gifts that can 144 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 4: be shared in families, and so how do you stop 145 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 4: that and really get onto a new wavelength with China 146 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 4: and with the rest of the world. 147 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 5: In fairness, should the US approach to China be one 148 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 5: of engagement or one of you know, just trying to 149 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 5: really step back from China. 150 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: How do you think the approach would be? 151 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 4: I think there has so for too many years now, 152 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 4: China's been getting what it wants. I saw that in 153 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 4: the World conferences. They really are winning on the on 154 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 4: the soft power. And so you have to take that 155 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 4: back because the US has all the all the ability 156 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 4: to do this, it just has been choosing not to 157 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 4: do it. You know, we've been trying to get peace 158 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 4: through weakness, and so if you switch to peace through strength, 159 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 4: China is going to change its side of the of 160 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 4: the discussion as well. They're not. I mean, they've followed 161 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 4: very closely what's going on in the US, and we'll 162 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 4: be responding to it. So then you've got to say, Okay, 163 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 4: we've got a bunch of problems. Here's our list of problems. 164 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 4: You're producing too much steal with too much coal, with 165 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 4: and claiming and then pushing climate agenda through the Paris 166 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 4: Agreement that you're not complying with. We don't like that 167 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 4: intellectual property you're stealing. You've never let down on stealing 168 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 4: the intellectual property. 169 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 1: David, I got one final question, with great respect Tom 170 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: Nichols the Death of Expertise Profound book. I interviewed him 171 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 1: when it came out. We're trying to get mister Nichols 172 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: on again to talk about it. This is an administration. 173 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: David Malpass has the best English skills of anyone I've 174 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: ever known on Wall Street. You and John Writing were 175 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: prodigious in your economic output for Alan Schwartz at Bear Sterns, 176 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: your physics Colorado collegey You're the real deal on a 177 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: conservative tone. Some of these people have zero expertise. What 178 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,719 Speaker 1: would you say to the President elect right now, if 179 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: these people are pushed aside by Senator. 180 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 2: Well, I don't think that'll happen. 181 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 4: But what I think what the president can see is 182 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 4: that he's clearly on the He's got a powerful path 183 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 4: that's taxes, energy, that's making Why is he running. 184 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: Then from expertise because there are conservatives like you that 185 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: have their head screwed. 186 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 4: On a problem is expertise often has meant your inside 187 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 4: the belt Way with their models, and so if we 188 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 4: really have to have an upheaval where you shake it 189 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 4: up with people that have views from outside, I got to. 190 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 2: Make some news today. 191 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: Have you been called by the president by Susan Are 192 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: you going to serve within the Trump administration? 193 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 2: Come on news? Okay. 194 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: David Malpass, thank you so much. Formerly with the World Bank, 195 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: and of course running within public office within New York 196 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: State for the Senate. 197 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 2: I believe it was Did I do that? Okay? You 198 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 2: have to pick up truck and everything right winter all 199 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 2: around you survived, Okay. 200 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 4: It's a great state. 201 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 2: David Malpass, thank you.