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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's down to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey b Joe Pis and

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Speaker 1: this is VP NFL. It's Week four in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and it's time to talk to the science guy about

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Speaker 1: what's going on in the world of numbers and how

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Speaker 1: it's going to impact our wagers.

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Speaker 2: In week four.

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Speaker 1: Week three was wild and wacky, and of course Sam

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Speaker 1: Hoppin is the best guy to talk to you to

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Speaker 1: break down what we saw and what we might see

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Speaker 1: in the future.

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Speaker 2: Sam, after last week's packer.

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Speaker 1: Win, I can only assume that Malik Willis Jersey is

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Speaker 1: now in the mail right. What's the five to seven

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Speaker 1: days on the shipping on that bad boy for you?

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Speaker 3: I actually purchased a Matt Lafleur Packers polo because he's

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Speaker 3: he's the real genius behind that big Lafleur on the back.

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Speaker 3: I mean, what they've done is incredible. I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: obviously it helps that Jordan Love seems like he's on

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Speaker 3: the nearer side of coming back. We'll have tough tests

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Speaker 3: against the Minnesota defense, which we'll talk about here in

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Speaker 3: a bit. But to get out of that, you know,

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Speaker 3: two game stretch with one, let alone, two wins is

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Speaker 3: I think huge for the Packers and they're still in

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl contention.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they absolutely are, and we'll see if we get

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love this week. There's a lot of injuries to

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Speaker 1: break down how they might affect some of the games

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Speaker 1: and some quarterback changes we saw last week two of

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Speaker 1: a team N called the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 2: Boy boy did that make a different impact on things.

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Speaker 2: But before we get after week four, just.

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Speaker 1: A reminder, we've got giveaways here, including a sign Nick

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Speaker 1: Chubb helmet for you. If you want a chance to

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Speaker 1: score this sign Nick Chubb helmet for free courtesy of

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Speaker 1: our friends at Pristine Auction dot com. All you need

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Speaker 1: to do is head to Bettingpros dot com slash contest,

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Speaker 1: complete the form, and either download the Betting Pros app,

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Speaker 1: leave a review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe

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Speaker 1: to our social media channels at Betting Pros on x

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Speaker 1: more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. It's

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Speaker 1: very simple. See, you get a good chance to win

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Speaker 1: this the more things you do, so we'll announcing the

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Speaker 1: winner right here on the channel. Make sure you turn

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Speaker 1: on those notifications so you can be alerted when new

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Speaker 1: episodes are up and you can claim your prize of

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Speaker 1: the Nick Chubb autographed helmet. All right, let's start here

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Speaker 1: with the line movement. We will take a look into

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Speaker 1: the future. We will, of course, as always, talk about

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Speaker 1: survivor pool picks as well. Plus I've got a little

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Speaker 1: MVP discussion here I want to have with Sam. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna spring it on him here in the future segment.

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Speaker 1: But first, let's talk about some of the lines that

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Speaker 1: might move as the weeks go on. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles and Buccaneers. Right now, the Eagles are going

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Speaker 1: to be without DeVonta Smith. We know AJ Brown's gonna

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Speaker 1: be another few weeks away most likely. So the Buccaneers

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Speaker 1: coming off a surprising, embarrassing loss at home to the

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Speaker 1: Denver Broncos who couldn't get out of their own way,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, maybe Tampa just didn't take

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Speaker 1: them seriously. I don't know the Egles snuck out of victory,

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Speaker 1: but where does it leave these two teams when you're

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Speaker 1: starting to look at week four for this contest?

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Speaker 3: So this game open with the Bucks as three point

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Speaker 3: home underdog, So let's gets now down to tune out

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Speaker 3: half across the board. There might be some straight twos,

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Speaker 3: but health is really going in the opposite direction for

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Speaker 3: these two teams. You mentioned the wide receivers for Philly, A. J.

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Speaker 3: Brown has missed the last couple of games. DeVante Smith

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Speaker 3: now dealing with a concussion. I find it unlikely that

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Speaker 3: he plays given how big that he was. Brittain Covey,

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Speaker 3: which again, regardless of what you think of him, had

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Speaker 3: a shoulder injury. His arm was in a sling in

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Speaker 3: following the game, so have a cluster injury situation there.

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Speaker 3: Lane Johnson on the offensive line is dealing with the concussion.

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Speaker 3: Mackai Becton also dealing with a finger injury, and that's

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Speaker 3: important because both of those guys play on the right

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Speaker 3: side of the offensive line. So I think with the

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Speaker 3: Eagles having a Week five by they possibly exercised some

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Speaker 3: caution with some of these players, specifically at the wide

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Speaker 3: receiver position, to give them an extra compounding set of

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Speaker 3: rest here. And then on the buccaneer side, they could

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Speaker 3: get Antonino Winfield back this week as well as Luke Gadeki.

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Speaker 3: So I'm surprised that with the Bucks at home again

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Speaker 3: coming off of a disappointing and shocking loss, are favorited

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Speaker 3: in this game right now? Or excuse me, I guess

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Speaker 3: the Bucks are underdogs if you will. But I think

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Speaker 3: as we get more news about some of these offensive

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Speaker 3: injuries to the Eagles, if it's just Jalen Hurts and

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Speaker 3: say Quon, I don't know if that's enough on offense

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Speaker 3: to get it done.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's definitely concerns there. Would that also

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Speaker 1: push you more towards the under than anything potentially.

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Speaker 2: For that game.

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Speaker 3: Potentially, I don't know what's sitting at right now. Looks

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Speaker 3: like it's at about forty five. So I do think

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Speaker 3: the under could be in play because the Eagles could

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Speaker 3: just lean heavily into the run in that situation, and

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Speaker 3: the Bucks have been a little scatter bringed on offense.

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Speaker 3: The Eagles defense did show up extremely well in Week

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Speaker 3: three against the Saints too, so that I haven't looked

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Speaker 3: into the total for that game, but again, with all

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Speaker 3: of these injuries, could could lean things towards the under.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they'd be slowing the pace with all that run

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Speaker 1: as well, let's go to the Browns and Raiders, two

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Speaker 1: teams that were upset at home yesterday now or should

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Speaker 1: I say Sunday, and now we're they're going to square

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Speaker 1: off against each other. So obviously, you know, the Browns

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Speaker 1: are a tough team to figure out, and I think

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Speaker 1: the Raiders might be the biggest enigma. We've seen a

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Speaker 1: team that you know, lost in Week one to the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: then all of a sudden goes on the road, wins

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Speaker 1: in Baltimore, then loses a home against the Carolina Panthers

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Speaker 1: and Andy Dalton, and now there's some rumblings of maybe

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Speaker 1: a change of quarterback already. So Sam, Raiders and Browns,

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Speaker 1: what do you see in this one that we should

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Speaker 1: be paying attention to?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it does seem like the Raiders are going

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Speaker 3: to stick with Minshew for another game here this week.

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Speaker 3: The Raiders opened as one point underdogs. They're now slight

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Speaker 3: favorites in some places, but this is basically a pick

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Speaker 3: them right now. The total did drop on Sunday night

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Speaker 3: from thirty nine and a half down to thirty seven

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Speaker 3: and a half. I mean, I don't see how either

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Speaker 3: of these teams are really going to move the ball

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Speaker 3: that effectively. But I'm looking at some injuries in the

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Speaker 3: trenches again here, Miles Garrett currently day to day and

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Speaker 3: Max Crosby has a high ankle sprain. I'm not sure

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Speaker 3: what the severity of that is right now, but we

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Speaker 3: saw on Sunday the Browns offensive line is a massive

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Speaker 3: liability for that team. Jedrick Wills undergoing an MRI his backup.

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Speaker 3: I think James Hudson is also undergoing an MRI. Right

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Speaker 3: guard Wyat Teller is out a couple of weeks. Jack

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Speaker 3: Conklin is still out for all we know. So if

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Speaker 3: Max Crosby does end up playing in this game on Sunday,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be a lot of the same stuff

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Speaker 3: that I think we saw on Sunday with the Giants

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Speaker 3: getting a ton of pressure on Deshaun Watson. Again, regardless

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Speaker 3: of what how well you think Watson played on Sunday,

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Speaker 3: this offensive line was not doing him any favors. They

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Speaker 3: just can't get any protection right now. So I think

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Speaker 3: I still lean the under in this game because the Raiders,

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Speaker 3: I think are one of three teams who currently do

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Speaker 3: not have an explosive rush on the season so far

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Speaker 3: through three games, so that's a rush of at least

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Speaker 3: fifteen yards. Again, Gardner Mitshew, like you said, is about

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Speaker 3: as big of an enigma as anyone in the league

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Speaker 3: right now. So this is going to be an ugly game.

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Speaker 3: I'm not looking forward to watching.

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Speaker 1: It, all right, Chiefs and Chargers now the Chargers doing

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Speaker 1: with an injury of their own justin Herbert obviously not

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent.

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Speaker 2: Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna be heavy favorites in this one regardless. But

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Speaker 1: this is a very dangerous game. I always feel like,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Chiefs are three and zero, but if

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Speaker 1: you're really looking closely, we could see a couple bounds

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Speaker 1: of the ball and easily be an zero to three

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Speaker 1: team potentially. That being said, here we are. This is

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Speaker 1: the situation we're in for Week four. So depending on

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Speaker 1: what the Chargers are running out there at quarterback, is

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Speaker 1: this a trap game when it comes to the Kansasity Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: Because that was our big discussion that Andrew Erickson and

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Speaker 1: I were having yesterday's look Ahead show, where it felt

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Speaker 1: just a little trappy, just a lot of points and

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Speaker 1: just the kind of circumstance there. Maybe the Chiefs have

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown here against the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: I don't think the Chiefs lose outright. They're just as

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Speaker 3: a team just much better. And we've already seen a

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Speaker 3: lot of movement in this line. It opened at about

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Speaker 3: nine and a half ten point underdogs for the Charters,

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Speaker 3: now got down to seven in some places. Now it's

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Speaker 3: out to seven and a half or eight and a half,

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Speaker 3: depending on where you're looking. But again, you mentioned the

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Speaker 3: injury to Justin Herbert. They're currently taking a day to day.

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Speaker 3: The X rays on his high ankle sprain came back negative,

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Speaker 3: so it seems like there's a chance he could actually

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Speaker 3: play in this game. But the Chiefs do look a

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Speaker 3: little discombobulated on offense right now. I think their defense

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Speaker 3: is still one of the better units in the league.

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Speaker 3: But if we do see Justin Herbert not play and

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Speaker 3: it's Taylor Heinike, I think it would would be You know,

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Speaker 3: it's the same thesis as last week with the Dolphins

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Speaker 3: and the backup quarterback potentially taking money. You know, people

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Speaker 3: thinking that the backup quarterback is a little bit underrated

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Speaker 3: in some of these situations. But I do think from

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Speaker 3: a play style perspective, Herbert's a lot more consistent Heineke's

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Speaker 3: going to be a little bit more erratic, but I'm

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Speaker 3: staying away from this spread right now. It's it does

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Speaker 3: feel to your point track Gamy, Yeah, if you will.

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Speaker 2: It does.

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Speaker 1: I liked it a lot more when it was at

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Speaker 1: double digits. Eight is where I'm seeing the consensus line

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Speaker 1: currently on betting Pros. But you know, if it does

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Speaker 1: get into that seven or seven and a half, I

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Speaker 1: think I'm out then, but it lungs and hovers in

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Speaker 1: the eight or maybe as the week goes on. You know,

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Speaker 1: if we get clear Heinike News and that jumps back

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Speaker 1: up to double digits, and that's why I might jump

201
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Speaker 1: back in there on the cover. We'll see what happens

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Speaker 1: there all right, before we switch gears into the future,

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Speaker 1: and I've got some future stuff to talk about with Sam.

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Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody this is a great time

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Speaker 1: to try out the betting pros systems that are available

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Speaker 1: right now. And if you're backing, let's say, the Chargers

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Speaker 1: to cover this week, you can create a custom betting

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Speaker 1: system that tracks how teams perform in similar and betting

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Speaker 1: systems are something that Sam works in.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people have very posted.

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Speaker 1: Their own and you can create your own over at

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros also, and maybe this week the Chargers are

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Speaker 1: the team to take and covering and see how do

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Speaker 1: they fare in these scenarios, these sort of systems where

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Speaker 1: there are big time underdogs at home. Historically, these are

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Speaker 1: the things that you can start to track and start

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Speaker 1: to find some pathways to victories. So I encourage everybody

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Speaker 1: to download the Betting Pros app today, create your own

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Speaker 1: betting systems and elevate your betting strategies to start betting smarter,

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Speaker 1: not harder. And again you can try out Premium if

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Speaker 1: you've never downloaded the Betting Pros app before right.

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Speaker 2: Now as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, before we get to the future's update, because

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Speaker 1: Sam has some thoughts on the NFC South, I want

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Speaker 1: to take a look at the MVP race because it's

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Speaker 1: gone now to about two and a half here on

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Speaker 1: Mahomes and Josh Allen as the favorites. Varying books have

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Speaker 1: them somewhere in that two and a half to three

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Speaker 1: range is three and zero. Josh Allen does seem like

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Speaker 1: a guy who I don't want to say he's playing

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Speaker 1: with no name guys, but it's not the rock star

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Speaker 1: superstar talents, and it's starting to feel a little bit

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Speaker 1: like the narrative is building.

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Speaker 2: A little bit.

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Speaker 1: For here's Josh Allen with the team of the Buffalo Bills,

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Speaker 1: but this guy basically putting him on his back and

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Speaker 1: every week just finding ways to just crush other teams.

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Speaker 1: Do you feel like, with the way the landscape looks

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Speaker 1: right now, that this Josh Allen narrative is only going

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Speaker 1: to grow from here or is this as good as

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Speaker 1: it gets?

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Speaker 3: I think it will grow without having looked at what

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Speaker 3: their schedule looks like down the road. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins are out of contention for the division, has out

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Speaker 3: the Patriots. I don't think the I mean the Jets

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Speaker 3: have looked a little bit better over the past couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks, so there's a chance they steal that away, which.

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Speaker 1: Is well, they played the Titans of the Patriots, so

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Speaker 1: let's not get too crazy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, but still is a potential concern. I think

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Speaker 3: the one quote unquote narrative that Josh Allen has going

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Speaker 3: for him is the fact that he's never won an

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Speaker 3: MVP before. So is this the voters looking at things

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Speaker 3: and saying, you know, let's get some quote unquote fresh

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Speaker 3: blood in the in the MVP conversation. You know, he's

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Speaker 3: been right there for a couple of years, but over

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Speaker 3: the last several years, it's been either Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: or Aaron Rodgers. So I think the NFL voters potentially

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Speaker 3: look at that and say, hey, Josh Allen's overdue, like

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Speaker 3: he's a top three, top two quarterback in the league

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Speaker 3: and is clearly carrying that team right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that same narrative. I'm glad you brought that up.

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Speaker 1: Is the same reason why I bet it this morning,

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Speaker 1: because I normally, you know, Josh Allen Mahomes like some

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Speaker 1: combination Lamar Mahomes is what I look at the start

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Speaker 1: of the year. This year, I just bet Mahomes because

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Speaker 1: I really wasn't sure how everything was going to look.

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Speaker 1: I want to see Jordan Love, I want to see

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Speaker 1: some things out there, But now so far with Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: it just feels like exactly what you said.

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Speaker 2: It's like, hey, you know, maybe it's time to crown

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Speaker 2: a new MVP.

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Speaker 1: And what Josh Allen's doing is very impressive because it

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Speaker 1: doesn't have a lot of that typical star power around

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Speaker 1: it that we see on some of the other.

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Speaker 2: Teams, Sam, I want to get to your NFC South

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Speaker 2: discussion too.

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Speaker 1: We saw a step backwards from the Saints, I think

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Speaker 1: in terms of play the last two weeks, we've seen

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Speaker 1: a step forward from the Falcons, and all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden signs of life from the Panthers and Tampa Bay Buxs,

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Speaker 1: who started off really well. Kind of a down spot

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Speaker 1: last week. So what's the state of the union when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the NFC South.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so right now, I think this is the entry

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Speaker 3: point for buying in on the Falcons if you want

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Speaker 3: to invest in them to win the NFC South. They've

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Speaker 3: played two of their tougher non division opponents so far

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Speaker 3: in the Eagles and the Chiefs. They were one score

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Speaker 3: games in both, obviously one against the Eagles. To your point,

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Speaker 3: Kirk looks a little much healthier than he did in

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Speaker 3: Week one. The offense seems like it's starting to get

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Speaker 3: into a little bit of a group. In the preseason,

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Speaker 3: the Falcons were around plus one sixty to win the

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Speaker 3: NFC South. That's now down to plus one eighty five

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Speaker 3: is the best line that I found. I would have

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Speaker 3: loved if this was like two to one or longer,

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Speaker 3: but don't think it's going to get there. And the

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Speaker 3: Falcons play NFC South opponents in five of their next

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Speaker 3: seven games, so they have an opportunity to really gain

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Speaker 3: not game ground, but like take a huge lead in

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Speaker 3: this division race. They again look a lot better. I

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Speaker 3: think the fact that they're too toughest opponents. They play

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys later in the year, but they certainly don't

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Speaker 3: look nearly as good as they we thought they were

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Speaker 3: in the preseason. So there's a chance that with an

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Speaker 3: easier schedule, the Falcons do run away with this. They're

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Speaker 3: dealing with some offensive line injuries right now, which is concerned,

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Speaker 3: especially going against the Saints this week. But if they

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Speaker 3: beat the Saints this week, both those teams are two

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Speaker 3: and two, I think the Falcons move down to probably

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Speaker 3: plus one fifty plus one forty. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny.

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Speaker 1: I was looking at the division this morning when I

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Speaker 1: was looking at the Josh Allen future stuff and looking

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Speaker 1: at it saying, man, this is the movement. This is

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Speaker 1: the point where you can really make a statement here

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Speaker 1: if you're Atlanta. Look, they got to get after the

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Speaker 1: quarterback more. I know, it's why they acquired Jude on

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Speaker 1: the offseason, you know, trying to help that pass rush

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Speaker 1: a little bit.

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Speaker 2: That'll go a long way.

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Speaker 1: But we'll see this is gonna be a very important

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Speaker 1: game and you're gonna see some massive line movement I

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Speaker 1: think off of it depending on exactly what you see

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Speaker 1: from the Falcons and Saints this week.

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Speaker 2: So that's when that's a game. It's definitely got our

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Speaker 2: attention in Week four.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the stats that you need

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Speaker 1: to know when you're making your wagers this week, and

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Speaker 1: let's start with the Cults here, Sam, what has the

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Speaker 1: computer spit out to you this week about the Indianapolis

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Speaker 1: Golds Because Richardson has struggled a lit he really has,

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Speaker 1: and they're going this week into a matchup where, look,

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Speaker 1: every game of the NFL is must win. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to be hyperbolic, but you know this is a

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Speaker 1: tough situation. You're against a three to oh stealer team

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Speaker 1: that has played good defense, that has grinded out games.

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Speaker 2: I know they've got some interests of their own to

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Speaker 2: deal with.

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Speaker 1: But when it comes to the Colts, what's important for

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Speaker 1: them when it comes to them statistically speaking.

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Speaker 3: So the Colts passing attack again. Anthony Richardson is exciting.

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Speaker 3: He's fun to watch. He's making a ton of mistakes, though,

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Speaker 3: and this pass volume is just as low as low

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Speaker 3: can be. They've had nineteen thirty four and twenty pass

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Speaker 3: attempts in their first three games, nine seventeen to ten completions,

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Speaker 3: so the volume is just not there. They want to

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Speaker 3: seemingly run the ball. Jonathan Taylor head his best game

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Speaker 3: of the year last week against the Bears, so expect

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Speaker 3: that to continue. But in addition to a low pass volume,

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Speaker 3: Anthony Richardson has a twelve point six yard average deft

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Speaker 3: of target. He's the only player over ten yards right

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Speaker 3: now and he's again a twelve point six, so he's

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Speaker 3: chucking the ball deep. There is a wide distribution of

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Speaker 3: targets among these Colts pass catchers as well. No Colts

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Speaker 3: player has been targeted more than eight times in a

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Speaker 3: single game this season. Michael Pittman has a twenty eight

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Speaker 3: percent target share, but that's again on very low volume,

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Speaker 3: and this from Next Gen stats. Anthony Richardson averaged his

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Speaker 3: quickest time to throw against the Bears in week through

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Speaker 3: three at two point six seconds. He did a lot

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Speaker 3: better on these quick attempts, completed six of nine for

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Speaker 3: fifty one yards and struggled on those deep passes. So again,

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Speaker 3: I know the Colts probably want to take advantage of

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Speaker 3: Richardson's arm, his ability to throw seventy yards off of

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Speaker 3: his back foot, But I wonder if they start to

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Speaker 3: try to manufacture a couple more quick, easy passes for him.

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Speaker 3: But while they're throwing deep and not throwing often, this

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Speaker 3: passing attack is just very variable. I think looking at

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Speaker 3: the unders for receptions and yards for almost all of

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Speaker 3: these players right now, is in play Again. You mentioned

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Speaker 3: that they're going up against the Steelers defense that has

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Speaker 3: played really well. They're getting a lot of pressure on

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks and is going to force Anthony Richardson into likely

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Speaker 3: more poor throws.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but the offensive line injuries that Pittsburgh has, you know,

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Speaker 1: also is going to make this game dicey NOWT Look,

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Speaker 1: I made no bones about it. I jumped on Pittsburgh yesterday.

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Speaker 1: That's my favorite thing in the early line show. I'm

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Speaker 1: all over Pittsburgh in this game. I just think the

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Speaker 1: discipline of my Tomlin team is gonna win out in

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Speaker 1: this area. But he can never put it past Anthony

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Speaker 1: Richardson to make a big play or to break out

385
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Speaker 1: here and just take over a game.

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Speaker 2: And maybe it's a confidence thing, like maybe he just

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Speaker 2: needs to you know, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's difficult when a guy hasn't played in a long time,

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Speaker 1: especially a young player from a developmenttal standpoint.

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Speaker 2: It was even baseball at the time too.

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Speaker 1: You know, guys who are big time prospects to get

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Speaker 1: hurt in the minor leagues and they missed that time

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Speaker 1: of development, it stunts the growth a little bit.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe that's what we're seeing a little bit

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Speaker 2: here with him.

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Speaker 3: It's a bit of a catch twenty two because he

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Speaker 3: clearly needs more reps. I mean, he's played in like

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Speaker 3: five games, you know, in the last two years. But

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Speaker 3: by giving him more reps, you're sort of doing the

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Speaker 3: thing that's not necessarily great for the team right now.

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Speaker 3: And they're trying to win games, and if rush running

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Speaker 3: the ball is effective for them, then they're likely going

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Speaker 3: to continue to lean into it. So again, I hope

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Speaker 3: they pass more, and I hope they bring that average

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Speaker 3: up to target down make give him some easier passes

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Speaker 3: to make, because Michael Pittman still is a great possession receiver,

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Speaker 3: they get Josh downs back as well. I hope they

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Speaker 3: shift things, but for right now, it's it's just all

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Speaker 3: over the place.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Panthers here, a much

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Speaker 1: different Carolina Panthers deem that we saw for the first

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Speaker 1: two weeks. So obviously, Bryce Young it was clearly the

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Speaker 1: piece holding them back. I mean, at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, there's no other way to say it.

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Speaker 2: It's just true. So can lightning strike twice this week?

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Speaker 1: What'd you see out of Andy Dalton here, old man

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Speaker 1: Dalton that you think we should be paying attention to

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Speaker 1: for week four?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? So in week three, the Panthers had a five

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Speaker 3: point nine percent pass rate over expectation. That number takes

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Speaker 3: into account the situation, the score, yard line, all that

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Speaker 3: sort of stuff, and they're throwing it nearly six percent

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Speaker 3: more than you would expect given that game script, and

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Speaker 3: they were out to a bit lead from the start.

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Speaker 3: This is just the fourth time since the beginning of

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Speaker 3: last year that Caroline had a positive pass right over expectation. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: new coaching staff this year, but two of those four

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Speaker 3: times were with Andy Dalton and not with Bryce Young.

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Speaker 3: So again making a grand declaration after a one game

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Speaker 3: sample can be a little concerning, But the fact that

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Speaker 3: this dramatic increase coincided with Andy Dalton starting, I think

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Speaker 3: has made believing that it's more fact than fiction. They're

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Speaker 3: going to trust Andy Dalton to actually drop back and

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Speaker 3: pass the ball. Adam Diealan had a hamstring injury on

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Speaker 3: his touchdown, which was an incredible grab. He's expected to

436
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:48,479
Speaker 3: miss some time, but without him, Deontay Johnson's just going

437
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 3: to feast. I mean, he had his career best day

438
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 3: on Sunday. I really also like Jonathan Mingo as a

439
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: secondary option. He was the only other receiver to eclipse

440
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 3: a seventy routes run rate on Sunday. So if they

441
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 3: concentrate these targets towards those two players, again, we'll see

442
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 3: where potentially Xavier get gets in here as well. But

443
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 3: I think the Panthers continue to pass the ball. Schuba

444
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 3: Hobart obviously had a great day, but I think that's

445
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: more a function of the Raiders defense. But again, looking

446
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 3: at the pass rates, I do think the Panthers continue

447
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 3: to let Dalton throw. Let Dalton cook.

448
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 1: Hey, it was so good that it made me wonder

449
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: what have we been missing all these years as Andy

450
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 1: Dalton's been riding the pine like maybe he should have

451
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 1: gotten more opportunities. Okay, I mean, I know, like a

452
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: hiccup here and there. He's had some moments to play,

453
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 1: but nothing really steady. So this was eye opening to

454
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 1: say the least. Last one here, big Indivision matchup here

455
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 1: for the NFC North. We've got the Vikings, We've got

456
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 1: the Packers. This one's in Green Bay. We might get

457
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 1: Jordan Love back, but it's the Vikings defense that is

458
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,959
Speaker 1: the story, besides Darnold really being I think more than

459
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 1: anyone could have ever expected. But the Vikings d has

460
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 1: been fantastic for the first three weeks of the season.

461
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 1: How does that impact this game in your opinion?

462
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 2: The week four?

463
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 3: I mean, the Vikings defense is the best in football

464
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 3: right right now. I know they don't have you know,

465
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 3: some of the stars started players that you know the

466
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 3: Browns or what the Raiders have with again some of

467
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 3: the pass rushers they mentioned they have Jonathan Gernard, which

468
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 3: is he's a nice rusher as well. But Brian Floor,

469
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,959
Speaker 3: as we talked before the show, he is if there

470
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 3: was an Assistant Coach of the Year award, which Dybe

471
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: there is at least can't better, but he's winning that

472
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: award right now, head over heel. Like he's been incredible

473
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 3: with the scheme. There was the clip after the forty

474
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 3: nine Ers game where Brock pretty comes up to him

475
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 3: and he's like, man, your scheme is crazy. Like it

476
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 3: it got me flummexed. But the Minnesota defense ranks top

477
00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 3: five and EPA per play success rate, EPA per driver down,

478
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 3: EPA per play, all of these advanced metrics, they are

479
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 3: just incredible. Act They're not great at explosive pass. That's

480
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 3: like the one weakness they have. But they've held San

481
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 3: Francisco and Houston to top ten offenses and I still

482
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 3: think our top ten offenses to seventeen and seven points respectively.

483
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 3: You know, when the when the Vikings were up big

484
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 3: in their game against Houston, they did not let off

485
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 3: the gas. They still clamped down and held Houston to

486
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 3: just the seven points. Impredictable, which is a website that

487
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: takes future lines for games and tries to extract team's strengths,

488
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 3: currently has Minnesota ranked is the twenty seventh best defense,

489
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 3: and that is just playing wrong. This This is again

490
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 3: what I think is the best complete unit and defense

491
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: in the league right now. Flores again, I was reading

492
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 3: an article this morning saying how scheme actually isn't quite

493
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 3: as crazy as it was last year too, so it

494
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 3: seems like there's some extra levers he could pull. I

495
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,479
Speaker 3: think with Love coming off the injury. As much as

496
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 3: I love Matt Lafleur right now and the Packers need

497
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 3: to give him like a lifetime contract, I do think

498
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: the Vikings have the edge in this game, especially again

499
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 3: if Love is a little bit limited.

500
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: Before we get to our Survivor picks four this week,

501
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 1: you can compete for eleven two hundred and fifty dollars

502
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 1: of grand prize winnings in Splash sports Second Chance Survivor Pool.

503
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: God knows I could use the second chance in my

504
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 1: Survivor pools. Thanks again, Ravens. You can enter now though,

505
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: for twenty five dollars at Betting Pros dot com slash

506
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: Splash again. That's Betting Pros dot com slash Splash before

507
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: one pm Eastern on October sixth. Let's close things out

508
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: for today with the Survivor Pool picks now. I was

509
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: eliminated in week two. Thanks Ravens. You jerks But if

510
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: I was picking this week, I would be picking the Jets.

511
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: They are at Holme there against it Denver Broncos. No,

512
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 1: I'm not buying Bonnicks with all his road victories two

513
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: weeks in a row, not against the Jets defense, especially

514
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 1: after what you saw last week.

515
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 2: You got to pay attention.

516
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: And no, there's nothing to do with the Nathaniel Hackett

517
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 1: revenge game. You can stick that narrative up your rear end.

518
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: Forget that, because that guy's not a good football coach.

519
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: But the Jets, I think we'll get enough here, especially

520
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,239
Speaker 1: with that two headed running ettact that they've got now

521
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: of Braylan Allen and Breeze Hall against a pretty porous

522
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,360
Speaker 1: rush defense of the Denver Broncos. That's the way I'm going.

523
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: I think that's the way they're gonna atack him. I

524
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: think that's the way they're gonna win. But Sam, where

525
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: are you going for your Survivor Pool pick for Week four?

526
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 3: So this is the chalk pick of the week. It's

527
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 3: the San Francisco forty nine ers. They're getting super unlucky

528
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 3: with injuries right now, which I did mention a couple

529
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 3: of weeks ago on this show. But that's more of

530
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 3: a long term thing than anything obviously will impact the

531
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 3: game this week. But again, they're getting a new England

532
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 3: team that just struggled to move the ball against the Jets.

533
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 3: Like you just mentioned their past Rus're still going to

534
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: be great. Jacoby Brissett struggled a ton against the Blitz

535
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 3: in that game, so I would expect San Francisco to

536
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 3: dial things up in that regard. But again, if you've

537
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 3: made it this far in your survivor pool, you're likely

538
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: in like the top twenty percent. And even though the

539
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 3: forty nine ers are likely going to be pretty heavily

540
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,640
Speaker 3: picked this week, if you look at their schedule, there

541
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 3: isn't a game until Chicago in Week fourteen that based

542
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 3: on my power ratings, San Francisco should be favored by

543
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 3: more than a field goal in if favored at all.

544
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 3: I mean, their schedule is is daunting. They this is

545
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 3: the easiest game that they have potentially left on their schedule.

546
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: Bro, That's why I picked them week one against the Jets,

547
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: like I like, look, you know, I'm fading San fran

548
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 1: for the year.

549
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 2: I don't want I like you lose Super Bowls.

550
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: Things go wrong, injuries, cumulation, of the weight of that moment,

551
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: of the extra games, all that stuff, and here we

552
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 1: all again.

553
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,479
Speaker 2: It's literally what we saw last year with the Eagles.

554
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 1: It's injuries, it's schedule, it's the wear and tear, the

555
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: mental you know, wear and tear of everything that took

556
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: place the year before and in the off season as well.

557
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: McCaffrey's going to see some sort of specialist now in

558
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: France or Germany or wherever they hell. He's on a

559
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: European vacation somewhere.

560
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: Dude. Look, I'm with you.

561
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: This is a time to pound some of the forty

562
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: nine ers because I don't know if it's going to

563
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: get much better than this. You and I both using

564
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers in the month of September, check

565
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 1: and check, so hopefully you get a win there. And

566
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: don't forget everybody, make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy

567
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: Pros and Betting Pros YouTube channels. This Betting Pros channel

568
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: has grown so much in the last couple of weeks,

569
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: and it's all because of all of you who are

570
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: out there watching, and we know you've been with us

571
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: for years of Fantasy Pros and we're very happy to

572
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 1: kind of bring some of you over to the BP

573
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: side of things here and how you can make money

574
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: and smart investments using that fantasy knowledge and applying it

575
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 1: into the betting markets. And there's nobody better to help

576
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: us apply some of that knowledge. You, Sam Hoppin. Great

577
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: to talk to you.

578
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 2: As always.

579
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 1: Check out Sam's latest work this week over at Bettingpros

580
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: dot com as well as he continues to break down

581
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 1: everything you need for Week four in the NFL. And

582
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: don't forget go to Bettingpros dot com slash contest because

583
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: that Nick Chub helmet is not going to give away itself.

584
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: And of course subscribe comment below. Ring the bell till

585
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 1: it goes ding here on our VP YouTube channel so

586
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: you can be with us for all of the NFL season.

587
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

588
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 1: game goes on for Sam Hoppin, I'm Joey p.

589
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 2: We'll see you next time.

590
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,959
Speaker 4: Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If

591
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 4: you love the show, the best freeway to support us

592
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 4: is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

593
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594
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Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com. Slash Betting pros