Speaker 1: The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight here at
Speaker 1: the Volume, Happy Tuesday. For the third time, everybody. Round
Speaker 1: two coverage of the NBA Playoffs Here at Hoops Tonight
Speaker 1: is brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do
Speaker 1: you cast back? In case you guys missed it. Earlier
Speaker 1: today I did a video breaking down Game four of
Speaker 1: Heat Nicks, and then earlier tonight I did a video
Speaker 1: breaking down Game five of Celtic Sixers. You can find
Speaker 1: that a little bit further back on the feeds. We're
Speaker 1: just gonna go about five ten minutes tonight on Game
Speaker 1: five Nuggets Sons. You guys know the drill before we
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Speaker 1: can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight,
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk some basketball. So Nuggets beat the
Speaker 1: shit out of Phoenix tonight to take a three to
Speaker 1: two series lead. I want to talk about shot quality.
Speaker 1: This is a dynamic that I talk about a ton
Speaker 1: on this show, and there's a specific reason why I
Speaker 1: believe it matters so much. Obviously, shot result is the scoreboard,
Speaker 1: and you know, if you lose a game, you can't
Speaker 1: just be like, oh, but we had better shot quality.
Speaker 1: Like Paul George famously after Damian Lillard hits the step
Speaker 1: back three to beat the thunder of what was that
Speaker 1: two three four years ago? Got I don't remember at
Speaker 1: this point, but he hits that step back three and
Speaker 1: Paul George goes into the presser and goes, hey, bad shot.
Speaker 1: Yeah maybe, but he made it and you lost. So
Speaker 1: that's the end of story. Like, I don't like focusing
Speaker 1: on shot quality too much, especially after the fact, because
Speaker 1: of the fact that the scoreboard is the scoreboard. That said,
Speaker 1: when you're planning or projecting or trying to predict, the
Speaker 1: best indicator of future performance in any basketball game or
Speaker 1: any playoff series is going to be shot quality. Why
Speaker 1: because on any one game sample size, there is a
Speaker 1: bunch of variants that takes place, especially jump shooting. Right,
Speaker 1: So like Phoenix, for instance, they take a ton of
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots. That's the most difficult shot in
Speaker 1: the game of basketball, literally the most difficult shot. Pull
Speaker 1: Up jump shots from the mid range, typically on a
Speaker 1: points per possession basis, are literally the most inefficient shot
Speaker 1: in the game of basketball. Doesn't mean that they shouldn't
Speaker 1: be taken. I think it's one of the most important shots,
Speaker 1: especially in the playoffs, to try to soften up defenses,
Speaker 1: because that's where a lot of defensive schemes give openings.
Speaker 1: That said, it is a very difficult shot, and what
Speaker 1: makes Phoenix unique as a team is that's literally their
Speaker 1: bread and butter. They're They're gonna get a solid forty
Speaker 1: percent of their offense in any given game out of
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots, right, and so it just is
Speaker 1: a very difficult It's a difficult thing to do repeatedly,
Speaker 1: especially against the same opponent when in a playoff series
Speaker 1: you have to beat a team four times out of seven.
Speaker 1: We focus on shot quality for that specific reason. Even
Speaker 1: within one game, it's a great way to try to
Speaker 1: to make adjustments or to not adjust right like you're
Speaker 1: down by ten, the other team's making a bunch of
Speaker 1: crazy shots. As a coach, you might sit down and
Speaker 1: be like, hey, we're getting great shots. Don't get discouraged
Speaker 1: by what's happening on the scoreboard. There's eighty more possessions
Speaker 1: in this game. Just keep doing what you're doing. It's
Speaker 1: gonna bear out. Or if your team is taking bad
Speaker 1: shots and it's a tie game, you might be like, hey, look,
Speaker 1: games tied, but we're playing some bad basketball right now.
Speaker 1: Let's try to reverse that trend so that over the
Speaker 1: next eighty possessions we can have more success. I picked
Speaker 1: Denver to win this series in seven because of the
Speaker 1: specific dynamic of shot quality. I'm a huge believer in
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant Devin Booker and what they can do. I
Speaker 1: believe they're both bonafide superstars. But this offense relies entirely
Speaker 1: on those two guys making extremely difficult pull up jump
Speaker 1: shots and then eventually bringing in enough attention for them
Speaker 1: to spray out to their shooters on the back end.
Speaker 1: And it's just really difficult to do that four times
Speaker 1: out of seven. Meanwhile, we look at Nikolojokis, right, he
Speaker 1: was sixty seven percent during the regular season on hook
Speaker 1: shots and floaters, which are basically his go to creation moves.
Speaker 1: He's gonna get he's gonna take the occasional jump shot,
Speaker 1: he's gonna have the occasional free rim run here and there.
Speaker 1: But in terms of the Lion's share of his offense,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot of shots in the short
Speaker 1: to mid range that are hook shots, floaters, push shots,
Speaker 1: all those kinds of little shots in the lane. He
Speaker 1: shot sixty seven percent on those in the regular season,
Speaker 1: and he's only shooting about fifty six percent on those
Speaker 1: during the playoffs, so he's actually do a little bit
Speaker 1: of positive regression, or you could at least say that
Speaker 1: his fifty six percent is going to travel. And you
Speaker 1: know what, he went on the road and his game
Speaker 1: traveled with him, which was a big part of why
Speaker 1: they were in those games. Phoenix has been blown off
Speaker 1: the floor in Denver twice. Now. Denver's been in the
Speaker 1: games in Phoenix both times, particularly in Game four, is
Speaker 1: a one possession game late and it's because their offense
Speaker 1: translates on a game by game basis. Like Michael Porter Junior,
Speaker 1: for instance, finally got going tonight. He was one of
Speaker 1: the very best. I think he was close to the
Speaker 1: end of the year, he was the best. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure if he ended the year at the best off
Speaker 1: the look, but he was averaging like one point three
Speaker 1: points per spot at possession, literally one of the best
Speaker 1: catch and shoot three point shooters in the league. Like
Speaker 1: he got open looks tonight, and he's gonna get a
Speaker 1: certain amount of open looks naturally in Denver's offense, it's
Speaker 1: more likely than not that they're gonna go in on
Speaker 1: a game by game basis, Whereas when we zoom in
Speaker 1: on Phoenix, it's like game one in game two, forty
Speaker 1: one percent effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots,
Speaker 1: Game three in game four fifty nine percent effective field
Speaker 1: goal percentage on pull up jump shots. Then we head
Speaker 1: back to Denver in game five and guess what, Devin
Speaker 1: Booker regresses radically back to the mean, Kevin Durant way
Speaker 1: less efficient than he was in the two games in Phoenix.
Speaker 1: That the Phoenix has not been able to get their
Speaker 1: shot quality dynamic to translate to the road, while Denver
Speaker 1: had and even look. And I picked Denver in seven
Speaker 1: because I didn't really have a great feel for this series,
Speaker 1: and I basically picked them because of home court advantage.
Speaker 1: But here's the thing. If Phoenix can't get their offense
Speaker 1: to travel on the road. It won't matter if they
Speaker 1: win every single game in Phoenix because Denver does have
Speaker 1: home court advantage. And again, like, are you shocked that
Speaker 1: Denver's offense got going at home again tonight when Phoenix
Speaker 1: their big adjustment in game three? In Game four was
Speaker 1: to go all in on offensive talent. Like, I'm watching
Speaker 1: this third quarter run there from Denver and Phoenix is
Speaker 1: trying to fight to get it back down to fifteen, fourteen,
Speaker 1: thirteen points going into the fourth quarter, and it's like
Speaker 1: Jacques Landell's on the floor, he's a blow average defensive player.
Speaker 1: Campaigns on the floor, He's a blow average defensive player.
Speaker 1: Terrence Ross is on the floor. He's a blow average
Speaker 1: defensive player. Devin Booker's on the floor. He's a good
Speaker 1: to slightly above average off a defensive player. And Kevin Durant,
Speaker 1: who's a good to great defensive player. Right, So, like,
Speaker 1: those defensive lineups are not the kind of lineups that
Speaker 1: are going to make Denver feel uncomfortable and make them
Speaker 1: struggle to score. Meanwhile, on the other end, they're because
Speaker 1: of the difficult shot dynamic, they're not hitting at the
Speaker 1: same rate that they did in Phoenix. As a result,
Speaker 1: Denver doesn't have to send as much defensive attention towards
Speaker 1: Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. It's a cascading effect. Like
Speaker 1: think of it this way, CACP and Aaron Gordon. Fueled
Speaker 1: by the home crowd, they applied just a little bit
Speaker 1: more pressure on those defensive possessions against Devin Booker and
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant. That flips their shot result a little bit,
Speaker 1: that allows everyone else to stay home a little bit more. Now,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are
Speaker 1: a little bit in a predicament where they don't have
Speaker 1: easier They don't have the same easy reads that they
Speaker 1: had back in Phoenix where it's just pop pop pop
Speaker 1: around the perimeter to a wide open three point shooter
Speaker 1: in the corner. So as a result, guys are in
Speaker 1: passing lanes. Now here come the turnovers. And look at
Speaker 1: Denver getting out in transition in this game. Last side check,
Speaker 1: they were at like almost thirty fast break points in
Speaker 1: this So like that, it's crazy how that uh that
Speaker 1: home road dynamic. Just as that little bit of extra
Speaker 1: defensive pressure which turns those extremely difficult jump shots into
Speaker 1: even more difficult jump shots, and it just cascades down
Speaker 1: the line as Phoenix's offense falls apart. And again, like
Speaker 1: Devin Booker, everything he did in Phoenix was incredibly impressive,
Speaker 1: not just incredibly impressive, unprecedented. I genuinely don't remember in
Speaker 1: my time following the league a shot making performance like
Speaker 1: what Devin Booker did. Here's the reality. Kevin Durant had
Speaker 1: the best pull up jump shooting season of his career
Speaker 1: this year, shot fifty five percent, basically the best pull
Speaker 1: up jump shooting season I can ever remember anybody having
Speaker 1: in the regular season. Devin Booker was shooting like seventy
Speaker 1: percent on pull up jump shots. It's just not possible
Speaker 1: to maintain that. It's just not so. The regression was inevitable.
Speaker 1: It happened. It trickled down the line, and again like
Speaker 1: they're gonna head back to Phoenix and they're gonna have
Speaker 1: a good chance to reverse that dynamic, again fueled by
Speaker 1: their home crowd, as they get a little bit more
Speaker 1: space on all these shots and they start to knock
Speaker 1: them down again and they start to draw those double teams,
Speaker 1: and again Dever has a chance to win that game.
Speaker 1: They were really competitive in the two Phoenix games earlier
Speaker 1: in the series. But don't be surprised if if Phoenix
Speaker 1: extends this to seven. But the protom line at the
Speaker 1: bottom line is is they've got to be able to
Speaker 1: go into Denver and generate high quality shots and they
Speaker 1: just haven't been able to again. Nikola jokicch like I
Speaker 1: showed you guys a shot chart on my Twitter feed
Speaker 1: earlier in the series. When you look at Nikola Jokic's
Speaker 1: offensive approach, it is all stuff that can be replicated.
Speaker 1: All the players that rely on extremely difficult, long distance
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots, there's a lot more variants in
Speaker 1: their game. Guys that live in the paint, are near
Speaker 1: the paint, there's a lot less variance in their game.
Speaker 1: It translates night tonight. Both of these teams are pretty
Speaker 1: terrible defensively, that's just a fact. But on the offensive end,
Speaker 1: Denver has a consistency that they can rely on that
Speaker 1: Phoenix cannot. Yeah, so great win for Denver up three
Speaker 1: to two. Still believe they win the series in seven,
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Phoenix
Speaker 1: ends up getting Game six at home. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that's all I have for tonight. We will be back
Speaker 1: tomorrow night after Game five of Lakers Warriors The volume