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Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're running a game so smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splender six sing just glorious text the cursuses. Guys, all

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Speaker 2: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent

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Speaker 2: of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shut with that? Shop up?

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Speaker 4: Fine, good buddy, And that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 5: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Sh shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm again be all it left to one, the white eyed,

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Speaker 2: drilled pibus, how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Yoga beneath the ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Wondergo.

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Speaker 4: My name is Michael Leebuff. I am the soccer editor

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Speaker 4: here at Action, and in just a moment I will

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Speaker 4: be joined by my colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo,

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Speaker 4: and the three of us will handicap all sixteen matches

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Speaker 4: coming your way in the Champions League this week. And

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Speaker 4: this is a very strange, just like almost like Week

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Speaker 4: seventeen of the NFL, Like there's so many different kind

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Speaker 4: of game theory, narrative based things we gotta go over.

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Speaker 4: We will get to all of that. But we'll start

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Speaker 4: in Group B with one of the games of the week.

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Speaker 4: That's Porto there plus one eighty against Atletico Madrid, who

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Speaker 4: are plus one sixty on the road.

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Speaker 5: The draw is plus two to twenty five.

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Speaker 4: This is three pm kickoff on Tuesday, and Group B

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Speaker 4: sets up like this. Liverpool they're through five and oh

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Speaker 4: fifteen points. They won the group, but the other three

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Speaker 4: teams they can all advance through different results. Porto they're

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Speaker 4: kind of in the driver's seat right now with five points,

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Speaker 4: ac Milan at four and Atletico Madrid at four points two.

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Speaker 4: So basically this game for Atletico is a must win.

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Speaker 4: It is a must win, not basically, and Porto they

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Speaker 4: basically need to win too, because Milan is probably going

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Speaker 4: to be playing a pretty undermanned Liverpool team.

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Speaker 5: Is that stuff going into your handicap? How much does

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Speaker 5: it matter?

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Speaker 4: Do you think sometimes in situations like this there is

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Speaker 4: an overreaction and how are you playing this match?

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Speaker 3: Anthony Dubunda, Well, yeah, I think the most interesting thing

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Speaker 3: here is that, you know, we don't really have to

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Speaker 3: worry about motivation in this game necessarily because Porto they

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Speaker 3: both need to win and a win is good enough

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Speaker 3: most likely for Atletico and will be good enough for

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Speaker 3: Porto to go through here, whereas a draw could see

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Speaker 3: them both out. And that makes for a really fun

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Speaker 3: game state if it's late and you know both teams

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Speaker 3: are pushing for a goal and they both need it.

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Speaker 3: But I think really Porto's just been consistently undervalued in

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Speaker 3: the market the entire Champions League. I went back and looked,

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Speaker 3: I've bet them in every match except the last one,

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Speaker 3: and I've shown value on them in every match except

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Speaker 3: the last one, and so I still see them as

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Speaker 3: solid favorites here at home. I lety consistent overperformance of

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Speaker 3: expected goals over the years has kind of clouded our

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Speaker 3: judgment of them as this great, experienced knockout tournament team,

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Speaker 3: and that's why they're going to find a way to

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Speaker 3: win this game and go through. But when you look

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Speaker 3: at the last few years, really hasn't been the case.

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Speaker 3: They got got blown out by Chelsea, choked against RBI

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Speaker 3: Leipzig last year. They have not been good in this

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Speaker 3: Champions League. They have four points. Three of them came

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Speaker 3: after they were down a goal against Milan and got

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Speaker 3: a red card and a penalty to win it, and

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Speaker 3: then The other one came against Porto at home when

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Speaker 3: they were outplayed, had point three expected goals and there

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Speaker 3: was a very controversial Vart decision that vardoff the only

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Speaker 3: goal for Porto that would have won the match and

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Speaker 3: really rendered this one irrelevant. So when you look across

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Speaker 3: the board in terms of box entry, shots, attacking areas,

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Speaker 3: touch is, they're very similar across the board, and they're

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Speaker 3: five matches in the Champions League. But Porto's at home here,

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Speaker 3: so I like them. I think they're more likely to

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Speaker 3: win it than not. So give you Portou Drawno bet.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and BJA, I know your projections show a little

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Speaker 4: bit of value on the under here, but is this

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Speaker 4: a situation maybe like if there is a goal early,

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Speaker 4: are you going to be betting into then? Baby looking

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Speaker 4: for a live under as well, because people will overreact

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Speaker 4: to the fact that, let's say Porto goes at one nothing,

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Speaker 4: Now Madrid's got to score two goals to even have

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Speaker 4: a chance to advance.

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Speaker 5: But scoring is very hard at soccer, and scoring is.

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Speaker 4: Very hard against defense like this, So set up the

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Speaker 4: under talk a little bit about some live bending strategy

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Speaker 4: in these kind of games as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so really, if whoever goes up first in this one,

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Speaker 1: they basically can just sit on that one serial lyait. Basically,

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Speaker 1: both these teams are built with their four to four

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Speaker 1: type two structures, can really see a game out defensively.

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Speaker 1: That's how they're set up, That's how they're built. Porto

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Speaker 1: really should have beat Athletic im matriated the last time

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Speaker 1: they played. They want on expected goals one point six

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Speaker 1: to around point four. They created a couple of big chances,

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Speaker 1: but you know, if you go back and look at

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Speaker 1: the box score from that, there are only eleven total

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Speaker 1: shots in that match, and not very many of them

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Speaker 1: hit on target. Porto is an elite defensive team. They're

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Speaker 1: only allowing point six expected goals if you take away

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Speaker 1: the two matches against Liverpool, if you you know, domestically

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Speaker 1: and the Champions League. On the flip side, Diego Simioni

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Speaker 1: has kind of messed around with some different tactics. He's

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Speaker 1: gone to more of a three one four to two

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Speaker 1: formation this season. In La Liga, Athletico is only allowing

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Speaker 1: point eight three expected goals per ninety minutes when playing

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Speaker 1: out of it. They're still first in shots allowed per

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Speaker 1: ninety box entries allowed and crosses complete in their own

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Speaker 1: penalty right in La Liga. So if either one of

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Speaker 1: these teams scores first, they can basically just sit on

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Speaker 1: this lead, see it out and they'll have second place

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Speaker 1: in this group. So it is kind of juicy under

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Speaker 1: two and a half at minus one thirty five. I

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Speaker 1: would play that pre game, but depending on how far

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Speaker 1: this match goes out. If somebody scores right away, I

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Speaker 1: will definitely plan under. But if we drag this out

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Speaker 1: match out any longer, the odds are going to get

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Speaker 1: out of at a reach. So I would like to

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Speaker 1: play at pregame under two and a half of minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five, but if there is a goal early,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be an auto underplay for me.

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Speaker 4: The other game in this group features AC Milan as

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Speaker 4: a plus one twenty home favorite against Liverpool who or

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Speaker 4: plus two twenty five. The draw is plus two sixty.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, Milan needs to win to have a

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Speaker 4: chance to advance. Really, Liverpool, if they wanted to dress

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Speaker 4: their U sixteen team, they could do that.

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Speaker 5: They have nothing to play for here.

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Speaker 4: Interestingly, in terms of the futures market, AC Milan is

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Speaker 4: sitting at one hundred and thirty to one to win

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Speaker 4: Champions League.

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Speaker 5: Atletico Madrid is fifty to one. So it just kind of.

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Speaker 4: Shows if you are paying attention to county scenarios you

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Speaker 4: can find some value. You look, ac Milan's not going

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Speaker 4: to win the Champions League, but they should basically be

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Speaker 4: on par with Atletico Madrid. So just something to keep

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Speaker 4: in mind as we do reset towards the round of sixteen,

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Speaker 4: that you can find some teams for no reason whatsoever

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Speaker 4: at triple the price of another one that should be

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Speaker 4: on level playing field with them.

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Speaker 5: That being said, I don't know.

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Speaker 4: How you could play Liverpool on this one, especially right

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Speaker 4: now like we're recording this on Sunday. We don't know

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Speaker 4: what's going to happen in terms of a lineup. They're

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Speaker 4: well in it in terms of their Premier League aspirations,

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Speaker 4: so I don't think Jurgen Klopp is going to do

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Speaker 4: anything to jeopardize either the Premier League nor the Champions

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Speaker 4: League by tressing a really really strong eleven. So I

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Speaker 4: think it's Malan or nothing here, Anthony. Last time we

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Speaker 4: talked like there was nothing on the table for Liverpool,

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Speaker 4: you still kind of like them at the price.

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Speaker 5: Is that the case here again?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I certainly lean that way. Liverpool's win against Porto was

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Speaker 3: a bit misleading when you look at the expected goals chances.

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Speaker 3: Porto missed a couple of big chances Liverpool took theirs.

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Speaker 3: But Liverpool also still started Saudi Amana and most Sola

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Speaker 3: in that game, and if the two of them are

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Speaker 3: in the game, they have way more attacking talent than

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Speaker 3: Milan does. Milan's also got a ton of injuries piling

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Speaker 3: up Davie Calabria, Simoon and Kierre, who's out for the

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Speaker 3: year now. Anti Rabitch is out, Lyvier Deroux is out,

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Speaker 3: Pietro Pilagri is out, So they're out a lot of

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Speaker 3: attackers and defenders and that's a pretty concerning situation going

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Speaker 3: up against Liverpool here. But I think Klopp may rotate

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Speaker 3: his attackers even more here because two or three weeks

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Speaker 3: ago Liverpool was in a different situation domestically where they

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Speaker 3: were only playing one game a week. We're getting very

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Speaker 3: close now to the Festive period where they're going to

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Speaker 3: have three four games and two week period in the

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Speaker 3: prem which is obviously a much more important competition for

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Speaker 3: them at the current moment, given that they've already qualified

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Speaker 3: and that they're in a title race, a three way

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Speaker 3: title race. Milan's also been worse than their point total

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Speaker 3: suggests terrible attacking numbers against Porteau n at Letti, but

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Speaker 3: you could make an argument that they'd played better in

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Speaker 3: a more open game against Liverpool, and Liverpool played pretty

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Speaker 3: open against Porteou and when they've had nothing on the

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Speaker 3: line in the past have been very open at the back.

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Speaker 3: So I think this could be a back and forth

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Speaker 3: kind of game, but definitely at the price it's got

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Speaker 3: to be Liverpool pass.

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Speaker 4: Moving on to Group A, this one straight forward City

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Speaker 4: twelve points. They won the group of ready PSG on

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Speaker 4: eight points they're three as well Leipzig and Bruges they're

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Speaker 4: both at four points. Winner or whoever gets a result

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Speaker 4: basically out of their two respective matches will get a

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Speaker 4: spot in the Europa League, which does carry some weight

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Speaker 4: for both of these clubs given their situations right now.

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Speaker 4: We'll start with PSG their minus three ten hosting Bruges,

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Speaker 4: who are eight to one on the money line.

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Speaker 5: The draws five to one.

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Speaker 4: This group's kicking off twelve forty five pm. I think

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Speaker 4: it's Bruges or nothing, just because we'll look at the lineup,

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Speaker 4: same as you were talking about with Liverpool. You got

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Speaker 4: to take a look to see who PSG plays. So

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Speaker 4: we know this PSG team does have plenty of flaws,

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Speaker 4: especially defensively and the fact that they're playing ten on

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Speaker 4: seven when they are defending. So I think Bruges is

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Speaker 4: worth a look at the big big number here because

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Speaker 4: of the situation that PSG is in. But I'm going

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Speaker 4: to see the lineup for the Parisians before I enact

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Speaker 4: on it, BIJA. Is that kind of how you're looking

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Speaker 4: for this one? These two matches I think are really

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Speaker 4: complicated to sort through just because of the stakes that play.

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Speaker 4: Plus the two teams that have nothing to play for

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Speaker 4: are just so damp talented.

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Speaker 1: Right, And that's the thing is that this match needs

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Speaker 1: absolutely nothing to PSG, so you really question how much

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Speaker 1: they're going to care about it. But then you go

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Speaker 1: look at their domestic campaign and they're top of the

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Speaker 1: league un by a ton of points, so it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: which one are they going to take? Seriously, we don't

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Speaker 1: really know. I am leaning towards taking Bruges plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half, which scares the hell out of me

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Speaker 1: right now because of how bad they've been defensively their

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Speaker 1: last three Champions League matches, but in that first meeting

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Speaker 1: against PSG, they did deservingly get a one to one draw.

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Speaker 1: They won the expected goals a bat all one point

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Speaker 1: four to one point two. They have given up a

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Speaker 1: total of fifteen point four expected goals and five Champions

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Speaker 1: League matches. But what happens a lot with Bruges and

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Speaker 1: a lot of other smaller sides is that if their

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Speaker 1: opponent scores first and they have to come out of

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Speaker 1: whatever type of defensive structure they are in, it's a

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Speaker 1: nightmare for them trying to play an open game with Harby, Leipzig,

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Speaker 1: Man City and PSG because they just can't do that.

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Speaker 1: I do think that there is a shot that with PSG,

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Speaker 1: you know, may mars out obviously, but Inbape and MESSI

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Speaker 1: not really defending if they even play in this one,

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Speaker 1: there is a chance that Bruges may sit defensively and

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Speaker 1: just try and hit him on the counter. With that

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Speaker 1: being said, they do have to try and go win

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Speaker 1: this one PSG. I mean we've we've said it every

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Speaker 1: single week minus one point nine expecting gold differential in

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Speaker 1: the Champions League, which is just terrible. This is their

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Speaker 1: sixth match in eighteen days. You could see some squad rotation.

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Speaker 1: You could see some of the backups in no nymar

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Speaker 1: No and Herrera, no Draxler. So I only have PSG

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Speaker 1: projected at minus one seventy four, so I'll take Bruce

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half at even money. But again,

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Speaker 1: like you said, kind of got to wait and see

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Speaker 1: how matchups or lineups come out. Might want to play

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Speaker 1: it early if there's some rumors that PSG might be

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Speaker 1: sitting guys. But at the time of taking this will

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Speaker 1: take Bruce plus one and a half at even money.

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Speaker 3: We both cashed a little PSG fade again at the

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Speaker 3: weekend against Lens. Shout out the Lens that draw. They

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Speaker 3: got absolute cash cop. But it seems like the market's

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Speaker 3: catching up. If we go back to the beginning of

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Speaker 3: the season when these two teams played at Bruges, PSG

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Speaker 3: was minus one and a half on the road and

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Speaker 3: both teams to score is about minus one to five. Well,

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Speaker 3: now at home PSG minus one and a half, both

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Speaker 3: teams to score minus one fifty. So it seems like

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Speaker 3: the market's catching up to PSG not being quite as good.

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Speaker 3: As we think, and not quite as good as maybe

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Speaker 3: the public thinks. We've been kind of anti PSG for

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Speaker 3: a while. Here there's also a good messy res spot.

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Speaker 3: He's played a lot of minutes. He's coming back from

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Speaker 3: that stomach issue that he had good spot here for

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Speaker 3: him to maybe not play. I do expect himope to play,

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Speaker 3: so I'm going to pass here. I think it's a

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Speaker 3: good get right spot for PSG at home, but again,

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Speaker 3: can't trust them the one. Maybe look here, you know,

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Speaker 3: we get to like the twenty thirtieth minute. Maybe the

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Speaker 3: other games aren't particularly exciting. You can get in on

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Speaker 3: some live both teams to score, because I do think

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Speaker 3: Bruges will get on the board here. I just don't

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Speaker 3: want to lay minus one fifty. I think we'll get

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Speaker 3: a better price live if they don't grab an early goal.

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Speaker 3: But other than that, I'm going to stay away from

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Speaker 3: this one and probably stay away from our next match

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Speaker 3: that we're going to talk about too.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Leipzig.

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Speaker 4: They're plus two forty five home underdogs against Manchester City

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Speaker 4: plus one oh five the draws plus two eighty five.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, this is twelve forty five pm kickoffs

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Speaker 4: on Tuesday, Leipzig just sacked manager, American manager Jesse Marsh.

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Speaker 4: They need this win, I think right like they're gonna

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Speaker 4: have a new manager coming in. They're gonna want to

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Speaker 4: salvage something from the season in terms of their European aspirations,

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Speaker 4: so a trip to Europa League has some weight for

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Speaker 4: this club. It's just so hard to bet against the

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Speaker 4: city team without knowing what they're gonna do. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I'm assuming Pep is going to play his B squad,

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Speaker 4: but the Man City B squad, in all likelihood, is

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Speaker 4: probably better than the RB Leipzig A squad. So it's

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Speaker 4: for me, it's Leipzig or nothing. But in all likelihood

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Speaker 4: I'll be passing on this one. I'm much more interested.

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Speaker 4: And if I had to choose between these two matches

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Speaker 4: a bet to make, it would be Bruish eight to

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Speaker 4: one over Leipzig plus two forty five BJ. Do you

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Speaker 4: see any value in Leipzig versus City.

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Speaker 1: No, I mean, purely from a projection standpoint, I have

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Speaker 1: City projected at minus one twenty five. But taking the

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Speaker 1: mote of level that this match doesn't matter the city.

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Speaker 1: They're playing Wolves this weekend, which is going to be

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Speaker 1: a pretty big match for them in the Premier League,

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Speaker 1: given title race that we have going on right there.

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Speaker 1: So I do think this is a pass, you know,

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Speaker 1: new manager bump for Arbilip Sigma man they have so

304
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Speaker 1: many defensive issues right now. In that last match against

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Speaker 1: Manchester City, the first time they met boy City just

306
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,360
Speaker 1: torched them left and right and just down the wings,

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Speaker 1: down the center. It was terrible. So for me, it's

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Speaker 1: a pass. It's hard to put, you know, a numerical

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Speaker 1: value on motivation for teams like this, and especially when

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Speaker 1: you know they've already won the group. So it's a

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Speaker 1: pass for me. But I hope barbieleip seguins.

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00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,080
Speaker 3: What is the City rotated squad? Because they have like

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Speaker 3: seven very good attackers and they play three or four

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Speaker 3: of them, So like they could rotate half the team

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Speaker 3: and still be putting out a team and finish in

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Speaker 3: the top four in the Premier League.

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Speaker 4: And we're here handicapping motivation. And then you think about

318
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Speaker 4: those guys that are coming in right there, they want

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Speaker 4: to play exact factly, so it is it is there,

320
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Speaker 4: Like I was saying, right off the top, a lot

321
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Speaker 4: of times when you take into fact these motivational handicap angles.

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Speaker 4: You do have to vn wait counter argument, And a

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Speaker 4: lot of times bookmakers are smart, right, they know what

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Speaker 4: they're doing and they know what we're thinking.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think over three is like minus one

326
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Speaker 3: twenty five here I'm looking at. It's gonna be a

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00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:11,839
Speaker 3: very popular trendy pick. You're gonna see a lot of

328
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Speaker 3: people say, oh, Leipsu can't defend. Oh city has been

329
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Speaker 3: giving up goals in Europe. I only have two point

330
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Speaker 3: nine to six projected. If I play to anything, it

331
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Speaker 3: might be like a live under if there's an early goal.

332
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Speaker 3: But again, you know the City games at the end

333
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,920
Speaker 3: of last season two, once nothing was on the line,

334
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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, there were goals galore in their

335
00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,440
Speaker 3: games when they especially when they played the reserve defenders,

336
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,000
Speaker 3: like if Kyle Walker doesn't play, he's very good over

337
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,360
Speaker 3: the top sweeping kind of up messages that the City

338
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:41,920
Speaker 3: highline tends to allow. But it's really hard to like

339
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,280
Speaker 3: you mentioned, it's hard to handicap. You know what City's

340
00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:45,880
Speaker 3: situation is going to be here. But I think over

341
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Speaker 3: three is gonna be a very popular pick. But it's

342
00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:49,280
Speaker 3: not one that I'm gonna be making because it seems

343
00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 3: a little expensive.

344
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,080
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, you could also see a situation where, like

345
00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:54,880
Speaker 1: you know, our we likes and could get caught scoreboard watching.

346
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,960
Speaker 1: If Bruze just starts getting you know, obliterated by PSG

347
00:14:58,040 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 1: and they see that, we can see them shut it

348
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:00,920
Speaker 1: down and just say, hey, you know what, we've got

349
00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:02,040
Speaker 1: third place locked up.

350
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,360
Speaker 3: So well, and the only way Leipzig doesn't get third

351
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:06,800
Speaker 3: is if they lose and Bruises wins.

352
00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, I believe. So you could see them just

353
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 1: sit back and just say, you know what, we're fine

354
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:13,160
Speaker 1: with the draw, we got third place, We're going to

355
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,240
Speaker 1: the Europa League and just move on. Plus, you know

356
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,480
Speaker 1: it is a new manager, so typically you know, new

357
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,280
Speaker 1: interim managers like to set up a little more defensive

358
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,520
Speaker 1: and don't play as aggressive as you know, normal managers

359
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,240
Speaker 1: who have a secure job. So yeah, it's it's definitely

360
00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:26,480
Speaker 1: this one's definitely a pass for me.

361
00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,560
Speaker 4: A little more straightforward. In the next match, we'll discuss.

362
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,520
Speaker 4: That's Real Madrid at home. They're plus one ten inter

363
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 4: Milan traveling to the Burnabout there, plus two to fifty

364
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,920
Speaker 4: five the draws plus two forty five three pm kickoff

365
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,880
Speaker 4: Eastern time. Real Madrid is the top of Group D

366
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 4: at twelve points, Enters at ten. They're both through if

367
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 4: there is a winner of this match. That winner wins

368
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,000
Speaker 4: this group. Sheriff is at six points shock Tars at once,

369
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,040
Speaker 4: so they're both out, with Sheriff automatically already qualifying for

370
00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,400
Speaker 4: the Reropa League. This is an interesting match because finishing

371
00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 4: first in a group is a big deal. Right, You're

372
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 4: going to avoid a possible chance to play man City,

373
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,640
Speaker 4: your possible chance to play Liverpool. I ax, you know,

374
00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,560
Speaker 4: these are really dangerous teams in the round of sixteen.

375
00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,400
Speaker 4: So I think both teams will This is you know,

376
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,080
Speaker 4: seems obvious, but they will both play their strongest eleven

377
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 4: if they can, barring injuries. And I think that this

378
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,560
Speaker 4: match sets up pretty well for Inter Milan. We've been

379
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 4: going against Real Madrid. It's not been working at all.

380
00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:21,840
Speaker 4: We did it again over the weekend, or at least

381
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 4: I did. It didn't work. But look, this is a

382
00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,960
Speaker 4: team that is overperforming. They are built to overperform their metrics.

383
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,720
Speaker 4: I think with you know, Kreem Benzema and Vinnie Junior like,

384
00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,600
Speaker 4: these are really really skilled individuals. But at some point

385
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 4: it's going to catch up to them and I'll back

386
00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 4: in through here. I like the money line, hoping maybe

387
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 4: it does tick up a little bit with Madrid at home,

388
00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:44,800
Speaker 4: but that's where I'm going to be looking towards.

389
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 5: It's into or nothing for me, Anthony, what about you?

390
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll just read it off like, if you finish second,

391
00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,120
Speaker 3: your potential opponents are Chelsea, Man City, I X Bayern, Liverpool,

392
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 3: Man United and whoever wins that other group that we

393
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,600
Speaker 3: haven't decided yet. If you get first, your opponents are

394
00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 3: at Alanta, Juventus, Sporting Barcelona slash Benfica, Milan, Porto, at Letti.

395
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 3: I mean, the quality of those teams does not even

396
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,399
Speaker 3: compare to the quality of those first teams. And we

397
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,480
Speaker 3: saw last week when Chelsea played Juventus they absolutely wanted

398
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 3: multiple goals because they knew they needed multiple goals to

399
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 3: win that group. So I'm expecting a full go here.

400
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 3: But one person who will not be a full go

401
00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,640
Speaker 3: is kind of Benzema. He went off early against Sociadad

402
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,399
Speaker 3: didn't matter they won anyway, but he will be out

403
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 3: for this game. And Madrid has their derby on Saturday

404
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,840
Speaker 3: against at Letti as a look ahead, whereas Inter has

405
00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 3: a huge tilt home match against Calgulary. Not quite so

406
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 3: expecting Inter here marginally better across all five games in

407
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,240
Speaker 3: the group. They were better in the first leg and

408
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 3: the one thing here, they're in much better league form

409
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 3: in terms of performances when you look at how much

410
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,159
Speaker 3: Inter has been dominating Siria. If you read what I

411
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 3: wrote a couple weeks ago, still time to get in

412
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 3: an Inter to win the league because they are going

413
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,320
Speaker 3: to win the league. But given the Real also only

414
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,640
Speaker 3: needs a point here, I like the plus a half

415
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,920
Speaker 3: on inter Milan at minus one thirty. If it's tied late,

416
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 3: Real will take the point though take the group, whereas

417
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 3: I also think Inter has an edge here in my

418
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,919
Speaker 3: numbers make it much closer to a pick them than

419
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 3: it currently is, and so I like inter Milan here.

420
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: You know you mentioned the game theory thing, whereas Real

421
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,359
Speaker 1: Madrid only really only needs to draw to win the group.

422
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,480
Speaker 1: But we've seen with Real Madrid this year on Ancelotti

423
00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,880
Speaker 1: they are not like Real Madrid teams pass like under

424
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,640
Speaker 1: Zon who had that defensive type structure, who could see

425
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,879
Speaker 1: a game out zero zero like that defensively, There's no

426
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 1: way they could do that, right, now, so without Venzema,

427
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 1: it's kind of you know, I question, if Real Madrid

428
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,399
Speaker 1: does come out defensively, can they actually stop Inter. I

429
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 1: mean interns averaging two point three expected goles for match

430
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 1: in Syria. They're an offensive juggernaut right now, and then

431
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 1: Champions League play they've created eleven point two expected goals

432
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,240
Speaker 1: in they're five matches, so they Inter really should have

433
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 1: won the first match they want to unexpected goals two

434
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 1: to one point one. It was just eighty ninth Frodrigo

435
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,880
Speaker 1: goal with the difference. But man, I have a hard

436
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 1: time seeing how Real Madrid, even if they do set

437
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,639
Speaker 1: up defensively, is going to stop Inter. And like Anthony mentioned,

438
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,160
Speaker 1: if they only need to draw, we could see without

439
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,120
Speaker 1: Kream Benzema and then really parked the bus in front

440
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 1: of the eighteen yard box. So I agree with Anthony

441
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 1: Ill like answered plus half a goal last one thirty Yeah.

442
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,199
Speaker 3: You know, if it's one one late and there's going

443
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 3: to be the one going for the goal, not necessarily

444
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 3: Real and I think that helps us here situation. Normally,

445
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:13,959
Speaker 3: you'd expect both teams to be going for the win.

446
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,360
Speaker 3: In this case, only one side will be and that's

447
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 3: why I think that draw production helps quite a bit.

448
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 4: All right, real quick, we'll talk about the other one

449
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 4: in this group, and it's very ugly. The Degenerate Special

450
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 4: Shocktars minus one eighty five at home against Sheriff Tiras Ball.

451
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 4: We're five to one on the money line. The draws

452
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 4: plus three forty. This is three pm kickoff. Sheriff is

453
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 4: automatically in Europa League, which is a huge accomplishment for

454
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 4: this team from the disputed territory of Transnistria in Meldova.

455
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,200
Speaker 4: They were not expected to do anything, and they weren't

456
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 4: expected to be in the group stage of the Champions League,

457
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 4: and they got here and now they're into Europa League.

458
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 5: So good for them.

459
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 4: But I mean for me, it's there's no motivation for

460
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 4: either side here. I would say if you if you

461
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 4: put a gun to my head, it would be Sheriff

462
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 4: at five to one or nothing. But I really don't

463
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 4: think we need to go too far into this one.

464
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 5: BJ. You do have a point to make.

465
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 1: That I have a weather update, is what I have.

466
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 1: It's going to be it's going to be snowing a

467
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,679
Speaker 1: lot in this in this game. I just checked it

468
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 1: in and keV it's going to be you know, one

469
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 1: to three inches, so that could potentially play into you know,

470
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,400
Speaker 1: the total or something like that. But I mean we've

471
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: seen it from Sheriff in this Champions League. They love

472
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 1: to just sit deep and just try to hit people

473
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: on the counter, and they haven't really provided much going

474
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 1: forward offensively. You know, they've only created three point four

475
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: expected goals, So there could be a situation we obviously,

476
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 1: you know, we're trying to handicap motivation. I don't know

477
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 1: where shocktar is at. I don't know if it's actually

478
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 1: gonna want to try and win this game, or if

479
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 1: they say, you know what, who cares, We're already out

480
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 1: and just give it up. So I could potentially be

481
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: looking at an under three goals. But right now it's

482
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,639
Speaker 1: just a pass for me. But if you want to

483
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 1: watch a snow game, that's the game for you.

484
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,399
Speaker 3: Snowver's not quite effective in soccer like they are in

485
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 3: foot down. No, not really, but still fun to watch.

486
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a funny thing.

487
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 4: It is fun to watch players try to I mean,

488
00:20:56,560 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 4: they're just so cold all the time. Group see who

489
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 4: we all love, We all have futures on from the

490
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 4: beginning Anthony jumped in a little late, but we won't

491
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 4: get on him for that. They topped the group fifteen points,

492
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 4: already done and Dusted's Sporting They're through on nine points,

493
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 4: done and dusted. Dortmund into Europa League at six points,

494
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 4: also done and dusted, and Bashka's and they'll be going home.

495
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 4: No more European football for them. Already done and dusted.

496
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 4: I AX minus two hundred against Sporting in the Netherlands.

497
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 4: Lisbon is plus five fifty on the road. That Druss

498
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 4: plus thirty seventy. This is three pm kickoff. One thing

499
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 4: I do want to touch on iaks twenty to one

500
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 4: right now in the futures market through like I said,

501
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 4: and Sporting is two hundred to one. So look both

502
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 4: these teams already into the round of sixteen, and you

503
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 4: just see the disparity. Not like, yeah, IX is a

504
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 4: much much better team this morning, but like we were

505
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,640
Speaker 4: talking about before, finishing second in a group, your pathage

506
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 4: is so much harder that they are ten times the

507
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 4: price of IAX, and I think coming into the tournament

508
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 4: you would have said the margin probably wasn't so wide

509
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 4: between these teams. Obviously, i Axes showed a lot better

510
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,360
Speaker 4: than expected. Sporting too, by the way, they've been impressive,

511
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 4: But that just goes to show you how difficult the

512
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 4: task is going to be for teams that to finish

513
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 4: second in the group with the way that draws set up.

514
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 4: I've got nothing in this one, Anthony. Do you have

515
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 4: anything you want to mention about either one of these teams?

516
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I X does have a little bit

517
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 3: of defensive regression coming and they don't really have a

518
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 3: reason to play here. They only conceded twice in the

519
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: group stage so far, or three times, excuse me. Then

520
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 3: in the group stge so far two were penalties to

521
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 3: both Bashitas and Dortmann, and then they conceded a wonder

522
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 3: goal two Sporting in the first leg. But they have

523
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 3: a lot five point three expected goals, so I think

524
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 3: they've been a little bit lucky, especially in those Dortmund games,

525
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 3: and that probably will come back down to earth here.

526
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 3: But when you look at both teams to score, it's

527
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 3: pretty expensive. Similar to the PSG game, I think if

528
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 3: you're looking to play anything in this game, you want

529
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 3: to look towards a both team to score or maybe

530
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 3: a Sporting team total over if you're twenty thirty minutes

531
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 3: in and there still hasn't been a goal. I think

532
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: that's a good spot to get in on Sporting because

533
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 3: I do think they have a good chance to score

534
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 3: here in a game that i X doesn't really need.

535
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of like the unter. I mean, this

536
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: match means nothing to either team because you know, Sporting

537
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 1: obviously has the tiebreaker over Dortmund, so they've secured second

538
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 1: place in the motivation level for either team. You know,

539
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 1: i AX in that match against basheita US, you know,

540
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 1: it's clear when it came out from the beginning that

541
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: they didn't look like they were really up for it

542
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 1: and really cared that much. You know, Mashida scored early,

543
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: which kind of put the match on its head. But

544
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: obviously i X just thrashed Sporting five to one the

545
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: first time they played. But Sporting is a much better

546
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: defensive team than they showed in that match. They're only

547
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 1: allowed nine point five expected goals in thirteen domestic matches

548
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: in Portugal this season. If you throw off that match

549
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: against DIAX, they've only allowed around four expected goals in

550
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: Champions League play, with this match meeting nothing. I do

551
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 1: think that a situation like this when we see Iax's offense,

552
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 1: and we see obviously Sporting's numbers, which a lot of

553
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 1: that has been put up against Pashita s, we kind

554
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 1: of overlook how good both these teams defensively are. I

555
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 1: as I understand that they're overperforming a little bit in

556
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 1: the Champions League, but domestically they've only they're only allowing

557
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: you know, around point five expected goals in the area

558
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 1: to Visa, and you know they domestically they are only

559
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 1: one point up on Fine Nord. So they have to

560
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: take a match against Azy Alkamar very very seriously this weekend.

561
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be surprised if Holler's on the bench,

562
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 1: if Anthony's on the bench, maybe Tatach is on the bench.

563
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 1: So this may be a wait and see type situation

564
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 1: when the lineups come out, because it really wouldn't surprise

565
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 1: me if they say we're going to rest these guys

566
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 1: and we're going to focus on their devise building a

567
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 1: lead there. So I actually like under three goals at

568
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 1: minus one ten, I only have around two point five

569
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 1: goals projected for this one, So I do think this

570
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 1: situation where without much motivation, it's hard for me to

571
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 1: kind of see how much these teams will actually care

572
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: with two very good defensive sides, so under three goals

573
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: minus one ten for me, and.

574
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 4: It's kind of the opposite for you. In the next one,

575
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 4: which is Dortmund. They're minus three fifty heavy favorites against

576
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 4: Rashika's who are nine to one. The draw us five

577
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 4: to one. It's a three pm kickoff as well on Tuesday.

578
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 4: Like you said, Dortmunt, they're already three to Europa League.

579
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 4: Mashikka's got nothing to play for. I think, like, if

580
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 4: you have to choose a money line here.

581
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 5: It's Bashika's or nothing.

582
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 4: But I'm going to pass most likely just because you

583
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,679
Speaker 4: are expecting a very thin Dortmund team, whereas like a

584
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 4: win for Brashikah, yeah it doesn't mean anything, right, but a

585
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 4: win in Dortmund it's, you know, still something like a

586
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 4: feather in the cap kind of thing for a Turkish

587
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 4: Super League team. But you jo you're protecting maybe a

588
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 4: back and forth one here.

589
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 1: Huh yeah, God bless Bashita's. I mean, they're so so

590
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: bad defensively and are trying to play open games with

591
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 1: teams like Dormant and IX and even Sporting and boy,

592
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 1: it is just not working. They've allowed sixteen point six

593
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: expected goals in five matches, which is the most of

594
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: anybody in the Champions League. Against Dortmann the last time

595
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: they played them, they were pretty good in the second

596
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 1: half and towards the end. Maybe could have gotten a

597
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: draw at the end, but Dortman still created two point

598
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: five expected goals, had forty touches in Bashita's penalty area

599
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: and twenty seven shot creating actions. And you know who

600
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: knows if it Erlin Hollin's going to play. You know

601
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 1: this is probably a wait and see type situation. If

602
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: I were to play it right now, I do like

603
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,199
Speaker 1: over three and a half goals at even money. But

604
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 1: I am going to wait and see what lineup Dorman

605
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: put out there, because if Holland is not in that

606
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 1: is huge because with Holland in the lineup this season,

607
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 1: Dorman is averaging two point one three expected goals for match,

608
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: without him around only one point seven. Like I said,

609
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 1: Bashita's God bless them. They love to play these type

610
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 1: of open games. Just gave up three expected goals to

611
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,400
Speaker 1: IAX in a match that ias It meant absolutely nothing

612
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: to IAX, So I do like over three and a

613
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: half goals and even money. I do want to wait

614
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 1: though for lineups and make sure that Hollin's in there,

615
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: because he's obviously huge for dormant offensively.

616
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 4: All right, let's say onsday we'll start with a really

617
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 4: intriguing matchup Byron Munich their minus won forty home favorites

618
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 4: against Barcelona plus three thirty on the road, the draws

619
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 4: plus three fifty. This is a three pm kickoff on Wednesday.

620
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:27,479
Speaker 5: Group E sets up like this.

621
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 4: Byron there through and have won the group with fifteen points.

622
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 4: Barcelona they're on seven points, Benfica at five points, and

623
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 4: Dinamo they're out of any sort of European competition at one.

624
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 5: But Barcelona they need to win this game. They need

625
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 5: to win this game to.

626
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 4: Get through, because you'd imagine that Benfica, who are minus

627
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 4: three twenty favorites against Dinamo, will take care of business

628
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 4: and if they win and Barcelona, I mean they can

629
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 4: maybe pass through with the draw. But it's going to

630
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 4: be a win or a lot of trouble for Barcelona,

631
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 4: who are coming off another unlucky loss over the weekend.

632
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 4: They won on next year, then lost but lost to one.

633
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 4: I believe to real bettis they have a plus eight

634
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 4: point two expect to go differential from open play in

635
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 4: La Liga. They deserve to be much higher up in

636
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,479
Speaker 4: the table than they actually are. And you just wonder

637
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 4: if the motivation for Byron is let's just knock this

638
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 4: team out, right, like, let's just knock Barcelona out of

639
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 4: the Champions League. That's always fun to do. But I

640
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 4: do think that I'll wait for the lineups on Bayern Munich,

641
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 4: see what they're they're gonna be cooking with on Wednesday afternoon.

642
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 4: But I would go to Barcelona or nothing here. But

643
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 4: like I said, I'm definitely gonna wait for the lineups here, Anthony,

644
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 4: what about you?

645
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 3: You know, Barcelona broke my heart in the last match.

646
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 3: They had a chance to cash that the ticket for

647
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 3: me to go through, and they had a goal disallowed,

648
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 3: missed a bunch of chances, almost lost in the final seconds,

649
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 3: Harry Seferovich missing a sitter that would have knocked Barcelona

650
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 3: out for all, you know, all competitive purposes. I'm not

651
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 3: sure I think I agree with you and what you

652
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 3: said about Byron. They have a chance to knock out

653
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 3: Barcelona from the competition. They know that Chavi will probably

654
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 3: have them playing better as they get you know, more

655
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 3: or time under him, even though their squad's nowhere near

656
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 3: the talent level needed. So I expect some minor changes

657
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 3: from from Byron. But I also know that Lewandowski is

658
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 3: trying to win a golden boot in the Champions League

659
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 3: here he's currently got one a one goal edge over

660
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 3: Sebastian Halaire. I know that Byron when they rotate, it's

661
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: kind of like City where like, okay, yeah, we're gonna

662
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 3: sit Gabri and we're gonna sit come on. So instead,

663
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 3: you know, we're gonna play Jimal Lucilla, or we're gonna

664
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 3: play you know, Alfonse instead of Alfonso Davies. We're gonna

665
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 3: play Lucas Hernandez at left back. And so there's a

666
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 3: lot of options that Byron has. They can rotate their

667
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 3: squad and still play out a great lineup. Kimmick will

668
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 3: not play, and I was pretty concerned about how open

669
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 3: Byron looked against Dortmund. I was not particularly impressed by

670
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: their performance in that game. I felt Dortmund's mistakes led

671
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 3: to goals more than Byron's good play. Right now, it's

672
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 3: a pass I lean towards Byron at the number just

673
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: because you know, betting Byron against Barcelona has been a

674
00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 3: very profitable venture for me and the last two years.

675
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 3: And I think, you know, stylistically, it's a terrible matchup

676
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 3: for Barcelona if Byron's all in. But right now it's

677
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 3: a pass. But I'll be I'll be waiting on some

678
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 3: team news, Gonna be watching novelsmen closely over the next

679
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 3: couple of days, trying to figure out if he tips

680
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 3: his hand on what his lineup's going to be. But

681
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 3: if it's a full go team, how do you not

682
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 3: play Byron and one minus one thirty five at home

683
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 3: minus one forty?

684
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 5: Yeah?

685
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 4: And then, like I said, the next match is really

686
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 4: funny because it's just funny to see benficaz at minus

687
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 4: three twenty favorite is what I'm trying to say against

688
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 4: any team maybe outside of like the Sheriff, And I

689
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 4: know Dinamo has been bad, but still this number is

690
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 4: highly inflated because of the stakes, right Benfica a win

691
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 4: and a Byron loss or draw depending on the gold

692
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 4: differential sees.

693
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 5: Them through Dinamo? Do they really want it?

694
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: Like?

695
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 5: Does it matter to play spoilers in the spot? You know?

696
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 5: I don't think so. For it's different for these kind

697
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 5: of teams.

698
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 4: I think like this isn't going to Dortmund, or it's

699
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 4: not going to i As and spoiling something. This is

700
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 4: going to Benfica. It's a little different. Maybe that's getting

701
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: too deep into it, but like I said, Benfica huge

702
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 4: favorites Dinamo. They're nearly ten to one on the money

703
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 4: lin they're play signed fifty the draws plus four fifty.

704
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 4: This is a three pm kickoff as well. Bj Do

705
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 4: you think that this number is just.

706
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 5: Like completely out of whack because of the motivation here.

707
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's definitely out of whack. But the

708
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: problem is, you know, if you've watched Demolk playing the

709
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: Champions League, it's they're Offensively, they're really bad. They can't

710
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: provide anything going on forward. They only have three point

711
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 1: five expected goals in five matches. But defensively they've actually

712
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 1: been pretty good. And you know, from the beginning at

713
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: least in the Ukrainian Premier League this year, they're only

714
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 1: longing around point six expected goals per match. It's a

715
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: very well organized side. Again, they just can't do much offensively,

716
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: but their last two matches against Barcelona and Byron Munich

717
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: they only allowed one point one to eight expected goals

718
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: to Byron and only point nine to three to Barcelona,

719
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 1: And I understand Byron had nothing to play for, but

720
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 1: that's still one of these bottom of the league sides.

721
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: That's still very very impressive. So again similar to Shaktar,

722
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: you know, when you have a last place team where

723
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 1: the match means absolutely nothing, you question how much does

724
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: it mean to them? Are they actually going to set

725
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: up in that type of defensive structure or are they

726
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: just going to say, who cares, let's play open, let's

727
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: actually try to score, you know, do something offensively. So

728
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: it's a path for me. I lean Dinamo Kiev, but

729
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: you know, again it's very hard for me to get

730
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: behind them with how bad their offense has been and

731
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 1: without knowing what type of lineup and what type of

732
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: style play they're going to come out in.

733
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I want to see where this number goes, right,

734
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 5: can higher? That is three twenty? Like, I really want

735
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 5: to see where it.

736
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 4: Goes because if it does, like if if we're seeing

737
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 4: Dinamo out there at like eleven to one, good god,

738
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 4: you know I'm not, Yeah, you look away from.

739
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: I mean, if we can get Denmo at plus two

740
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: and a half. I mean I might, I.

741
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 3: Would take the plus two.

742
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it could get higher. I mean we've

743
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 1: seen with these Champions League, especially with people buying a

744
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 1: motivation a lot, and you know, so these lines move

745
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: very very quickly, and a lot pretty much only towards

746
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: the teams that have something to play for. So yeah,

747
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: it's it's Dinamo or nothing here.

748
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 3: We're not going to get it to in the end.

749
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 3: But you know, plus one and a half at plus money,

750
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 3: I'm in on Dinomo because the thing is here. Benfica

751
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 3: doesn't need to win by a lot. We'll do.

752
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 5: And so they're not a team that can.

753
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 3: They're not a team that's scored a ton domestically or

754
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,479
Speaker 3: you know, relatively domestically, or has looked great in attack

755
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 3: in this Champions League either. And so they've been very

756
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 3: good on the counter, but they have not been good.

757
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 3: You know, when they played the first leg of this match,

758
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 3: they had I think it was one point one expected goals.

759
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 3: They got a very controversial of our decision that went

760
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 3: their way in stoppage time or they would have lost.

761
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 3: And so you know, I don't really trust them to

762
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: get margin here, but I need a better number before

763
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 3: I happen.

764
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, especially with this, you know they

765
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,479
Speaker 1: could get caught scoreboard watching and just see if you know,

766
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: if Byron's up on Barcelona and they're already up you know,

767
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: maybe one, if they're up one zero. They're a really

768
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: good defensive team, and they could just shut it down

769
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 1: and say, you know, whatev, you're not scoring anymore. We'll

770
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: take the one as a result and we'll move on

771
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: to this ground of sixteen.

772
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 3: Could have three Portuguese teams in the round of sixteen

773
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 3: of the Champions League and one their tea.

774
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know what that means is that the

775
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: French League is now going to be sixth anyway coefficients,

776
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: and Portugal is going to be five.

777
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 4: All right, let's scamper over to Group H or is

778
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 4: they like to say in England H. Chelsea is at

779
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 4: the top on twelve points, Juventus in second place on

780
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 4: twelve points. Zenit they're already through to the Europa League

781
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 4: at four points.

782
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 5: Malmo with one point. We'll look at the Chelsea match first.

783
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 4: There on the road at Zenit, who are plus five

784
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 4: hundred home underdogs Chelsea minus one ninety, the dross plus

785
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 4: three forty This is a twelve forty five pm kickoff.

786
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 5: Chelsea does need to win.

787
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,479
Speaker 4: To advance, and they are big favorites. There's really no

788
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 4: reason why they shouldn't. I'm expecting a big performance from

789
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 4: Chelsea here. They've they've wobbled a little bit in domestically,

790
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 4: so this could be a boat race. But of course

791
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 4: going to Russia in the winter is not going to

792
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 4: be fun. And I'm pretty sure Bjay has some boots

793
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 4: on the ground with some weather reports for us.

794
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's negative too in Saint Petersburg right now and

795
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: it's going to be like maybe two or three degrees

796
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: by match time. You know, obviously, you know it's an

797
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: English team going there, so they're used to colds. That's

798
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 1: not that big of a handicap. But you know, again,

799
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: this is a this is a motivation question right here

800
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: for Zenet. You know, they've already clinched third place, they're

801
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: going to the Europa League. Are they really going to care?

802
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously it's it's huge for you know, one

803
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 1: of these Russian teams to be an English team. I'm

804
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: sure they absolutely love that. Zenate is a very very

805
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: good defensive outfit. This this last match. They You know,

806
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: Chelsea only beat them one nothing when they played the

807
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: first time, but Zen it didn't really provide much going forward.

808
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to watch this line and I'm going to

809
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 1: watch it creep and if I can get zenit at

810
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 1: plus one and a half, I might have to pull

811
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 1: the trigger because Chelsea's dealing with some injuries right now,

812
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 1: because we've got Chilwell, Conte, Havevertz, Chilloba, possibly Marco Alonso

813
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 1: are all going to be out for this one. So

814
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: there's the potential I might be playing Zen at plus

815
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 1: one and a half, even though it doesn't really mean

816
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: anything to them in the frigid cold of Northern Russia.

817
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: So it's zenator nothing here. I think the.

818
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 4: Biggest favorites of this match week match week six or

819
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 4: Juventus there minus five fifty at home hosting Malmo out

820
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 4: of Sweden. They're fourteen to one. The draw is seven

821
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 4: to one another twelve forty five pm kickoff. I got

822
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 4: nothing to really say about this one. It's pretty straightforward, right,

823
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: like do you want to do? I? If I could

824
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 4: make a bet here, it would be probably backing Malmo

825
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,760
Speaker 4: to keep it close at like plus two BJ. I know, yeah,

826
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 4: you're looking that way as well.

827
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: Yeah we're not. Yeah, no, no, we might be.

828
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 3: I went to first out to Juventus today, pitched the shutout.

829
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 3: No shot for gen awhile at to enter in today

830
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 3: your shots for chief chanklesmen, that's where the shot is.

831
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: So this is this is an interesting one because I

832
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 1: think I mentioned this twice. But Malmo just their league

833
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: just finished this past weekend. They won. They were actually

834
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: tied on points with second place, and they won on

835
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 1: goal differential. So this is their last match of the year,

836
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 1: so it's basically all or nothing. They got nothing else

837
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 1: to play for, so it's you know, I mean, man,

838
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 1: they stink so bad. They're so bad offensively. And Uventus,

839
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 1: you know, the first time they played, Malmo held up

840
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: for like the first thirty minutes. Then Chelsea scored and

841
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 1: it all. You know, I'll help it broke loose. But man,

842
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: if there's a chance, you know, if Malmo can get

843
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: to two and a half, maybe even three, you know,

844
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 1: given the fact that events has to win, I might

845
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 1: be doing it. I might have to, because that's getting

846
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 1: a little crazy, you know, I mean, projection wise, I mean,

847
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,760
Speaker 1: I only have uvent to surround me minus two fifty.

848
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: So this is obviously a motivation level type of game,

849
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: so this one could get a little crazy. You know,

850
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 1: five point thirty eight has events to eighty five percent.

851
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 3: So I'm a little concerned that you ventus, the Malmo

852
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 3: may already have their holidays booked. Yeah, you know, going

853
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 3: south for the winter.

854
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh, I can start there. You can start their

855
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 1: holiday early by going south to Terin, you to Turin, and.

856
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 4: Then you go down to southern Italy and then you

857
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 4: go from there. It's fine, we'll move on from Malmo.

858
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 4: I don't want to talk about Malmo.

859
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 5: This is the last episode we're going to probably have

860
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 5: to talk about them. So that's wonderful. Let's move on.

861
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 5: Group G.

862
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 4: This is probably the group of the tournament. Lil at

863
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 4: the top at eight points, Salzburg second seven points, sa

864
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 4: Via six points and third and Volfsburg get five points

865
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:56,879
Speaker 4: at the foot. Everybody can make it. Everybody can be eliminated.

866
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 4: If you lose, you're eliminated. In the way that this

867
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 4: these two matches set up and Wolfsburg they are in a.

868
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 5: Precarious position of hosting LIL.

869
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 4: Wolfsburg is plus one twenty five at home in Germany.

870
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:10,760
Speaker 5: LIL plus two thirty.

871
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 4: Five on the road, the draws plus two thirty five

872
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 4: as well three pm kickoff of Wolfsburg off of three

873
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 4: to nothing loss to Minds over the weekend, and they've

874
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 4: been bang average in the Bundesliga of this year. LIL,

875
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 4: on the other hand, their results are not great in

876
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 4: legand but their underlying metrics are terrific. I think you're

877
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 4: getting a really good number on LIL here, and I

878
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 4: know like LIL.

879
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 5: Only needs a point to advance. I believe so. Like

880
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 5: it's maybe they're set up.

881
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 4: The bookmakers are reading into that, which is why you're

882
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 4: looking at LIL and the draw being.

883
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 5: At the same price.

884
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 4: But I just think that the number here is too

885
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 4: good to go against a pretty mediocre side in Wolfsburg BJ.

886
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: What about you, Yeah, I like under two and a

887
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: half goals at minus one oh five. I've talked I

888
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: think I've talked about it like four or five different times.

889
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 1: I know people are like sick of hearing me just

890
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,399
Speaker 1: talk about league on and over and over again and LIL,

891
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 1: But defensively this season they've allowed twenty four goals but

892
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 1: only can see fifteen point seven expectacles and even in

893
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,800
Speaker 1: the Champions League they've all allowed four point nine expected

894
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: goals in five matches. In this match, it's really going

895
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 1: to set up perfect for them because lil plays out

896
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 1: of a very defensive four to four to two formation,

897
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: and a lot of times this season, for whatever reason,

898
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: they've gone down early and they've been forced to, you know,

899
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: basically get out of that, play more open, go more forward. Well,

900
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 1: now they're going to be in a situation where they

901
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 1: don't have to be the aggressors. They can pretty much

902
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 1: just sit back and potentially play for a draw because

903
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 1: if they watch the scoreboard, because if they look up

904
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: and they see that Sevilla is beating Salzburg, which we

905
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 1: all hope is happening, then that just guarantees in the

906
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: group with a draw because they have the time breaker

907
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: over Sevilla. So I think that this is a situation

908
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 1: where them playing so defensive against a Wolfsburg team that

909
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: has been really bad offensively in the Champions League, only

910
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 1: four point five expected goals created in five matches. Additionally,

911
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: the last time these two teams played, Wolfsburg only had

912
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 1: two shots and granted they did get a red card

913
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: in the sixty third minute, but only point one expected

914
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: goals and didn't do anything offensively against Little's defense. I

915
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 1: only have one point eight five goals projected for this one,

916
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: so I understand the motivation for Wolfsburg. They have to

917
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,399
Speaker 1: go for this, they have to play open, but Little

918
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily have to do that, and they can sit

919
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: back and play per defensive and try to hit Wolfsburg

920
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 1: on the counter. So I like under two and a

921
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:09,919
Speaker 1: half goals on that as one o five.

922
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is crazy. I mean, the first game they

923
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 3: played in France open two and a half minus one

924
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 3: point fifteen, closed one forty five. And I understand that

925
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 3: there is now motivational reason for this game to be

926
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 3: open sort of, but I don't see it. And it's

927
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 3: what PJ mentioned. Wolfsburg has not registered ten shots in

928
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 3: a Champions League game yet and they're not playing, you know,

929
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 3: these tip top defenses necessarily, you know, and especially even

930
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 3: when they played at home. They've been a little better,

931
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,240
Speaker 3: but they haven't been great. They one point one expected

932
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 3: goals against Tavia, not not particularly impressive stuff overall, and

933
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 3: they have yet to really have a good Champions League performance,

934
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 3: except when they played Salsburg in a spot where they

935
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 3: had the new manager and Florid cole fedals come in

936
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 3: and he's improved them a little bit, but it seems

937
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 3: like they're heading back towards what's a very average side

938
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 3: in terms of going forward. They've lost three in a

939
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 3: row in all competitions since the co thought manager bump

940
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: where they were unbeaten four So if you look at

941
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 3: their schedule with literally lost lost loss loss as okay,

942
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 3: we fire van Bammel win, win, win, draw and now

943
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:15,959
Speaker 3: it's lost lost loss, so it seems like they're heading

944
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 3: back down the slope pier. They only manage point three

945
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 3: expected goals against the Villa on the road point one

946
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 3: against Leo in the first leg. My numbers one point

947
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 3: nine to six, so I agree with bj under two

948
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 3: and a half crazy number here minus one oh five.

949
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 3: Have to take it. Hopefully there's not early goals to

950
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 3: turn this into chaos, so you two.

951
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:33,919
Speaker 5: On the under.

952
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 4: I like lil on the money line. Let's move on

953
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 4: to the other match, which was also set up to

954
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 4: be high drama. Salzburg at home plus one ninety five

955
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 4: underdogs two Sevilla who are plus one fifty five the

956
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 4: draw plus two twenty another three pm kickboff on Wednesday,

957
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 4: Savia's defensive numbers in La Liga are spectacular eleven goals

958
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 4: against their averaging point nine four expected goals against per

959
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 4: ninety minutes in La Liga, but in the Champions League

960
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 4: for some reason, that number is balloon to one point

961
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 4: three eight spectacles against per ninety I think the team

962
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 4: that plays in La Liga is more in tune of

963
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 4: what we will see over the long term should this

964
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 4: team stick around, than the one that has showed up

965
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 4: for this Group G, which has been hilariously weird. So

966
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 4: I like Savilla's This is a great number on Sevia

967
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 4: plus one fifty five. Yeah, they're on the road, but

968
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 4: they are one of the best teams.

969
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 5: In La Liga.

970
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 4: Their results show that out, their underlying metrics show that out.

971
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 4: And Salzburg, for as exciting as they are and as

972
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 4: well as they started in this group, I think this

973
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 4: number is way too high on them. I would play

974
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 4: Sevilla down to like plus one thirty on the money

975
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 4: line here. I really do believe in them. I also

976
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,439
Speaker 4: don't hate a punt on them at a big number.

977
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 4: I think they're two hundred and one right now in

978
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 4: the futures market to win this whole.

979
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 5: Thing, because once these teams get through.

980
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 4: If they do get through, they are a bear to

981
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 4: deal with in a knockout football because of how well

982
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 4: they played defensively.

983
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 5: So I'll take Sevia.

984
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,280
Speaker 4: Here on the money line and bj you're coming.

985
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 1: With me exactly, So a little handicapping thing here, so

986
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:57,839
Speaker 1: obviously you know we all love Savia on this one.

987
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 1: For everybody out there, if you're thinking about bet Sevilla

988
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 1: or maybe the protection of the drama betline, don't go

989
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,439
Speaker 1: to the drawing no bedline, because Savilla has to win

990
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: this game. They have to go for it, So there's

991
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 1: much more value in betting the plus one fifty five

992
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: with a team that has to go for it, has

993
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 1: to win. That first match against Salisburg was maybe one

994
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 1: of the more painful matches I think I've ever watched

995
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: in my life. Salisburg got three penalties in the first half,

996
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 1: I believe, and missed two of them. So you look

997
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 1: at expected goals, you see, oh Salsburg. You know it

998
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 1: was one to one, but they won, you know, three

999
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: to one point eight onexpected goals. Well with three penalties,

1000
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,840
Speaker 1: that means they only created a point seventy five expected

1001
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: goals from open play. But the Sevilla team. They're so

1002
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: good at playing to the style of their opponents. So

1003
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 1: what I mean by that is basically Savia sees how

1004
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: their opponent's set up. They're very good at mixing their tactics,

1005
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 1: mixing their formations so that it's very favorable to them

1006
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: against the opponent. Their style of play. So they're playing

1007
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 1: a high pressing, you know, tempo, fast team. So what's

1008
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 1: going to be going to do. They're going to try

1009
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: to play the ball out of the back. They're gonna

1010
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 1: play very slow, They're gonna get some combination passes going forward,

1011
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: and they can do that against Salzburg. Now, in that

1012
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 1: first match, they also got a red card I believe

1013
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 1: in the fiftieth minutes, so that through everything out of

1014
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 1: loop for them for a chance to win. So this

1015
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 1: is a team that's playing really well. You know, they

1016
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: just beat Virel on the weekend, had put up a

1017
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: very good defensive performance there Salsburg sharting to leak some

1018
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: goals left and right. Especially defensively that match against Wolfsburg,

1019
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,320
Speaker 1: they were not very good defensively. I love Seville plus

1020
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,359
Speaker 1: one fifty five an exam. I think I'm projected at

1021
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: plus one seventeen so I think you're getting good value

1022
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 1: at plus one fifty five.

1023
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think Salisburg's a little overvalued still in the

1024
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 3: market here. Some of the metrics like five thirty eight

1025
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 3: like them more than I do. I think they're a

1026
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 3: good team. I wish they could also go through. I

1027
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 3: was rooting for Syvie and Salzburg to go both go

1028
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 3: through here, but unfortunately that will not be the case.

1029
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 3: One of them will be going home. It looks like

1030
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,720
Speaker 3: but I agree with bj and I'm to not repeat

1031
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 3: exactly what he said. My handicapp is similar. I like

1032
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 3: them on the money line here, typically like to take

1033
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 3: drawn no bett. I think they have to push for

1034
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 3: the goal here. My concern if Seville gets up, their

1035
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 3: ability to shut games down can kind of frustrate this

1036
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 3: Salsburg team. Grind the game to a halt, make Salsburg

1037
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: play at slower pace, make it very difficult for them

1038
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 3: to score. I think it's a good spot for Sevilla,

1039
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 3: even on the road here. Correctly favored and should be

1040
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 3: a little bit bigger of a favorite than they.

1041
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 4: Are almost Sevilla. And let's wrap up with Group F

1042
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 4: Manchester United. They're on ten points via real it's seven points,

1043
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 4: Adelanta at six points, and Young Boys at four points.

1044
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 4: All three of these teams can make it through depending

1045
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 4: on how things go. Young Boys obviously have quite the

1046
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 4: mountain to climb. But Adelanta is playing via Real, they

1047
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 4: are hosting them. They are minus one thirty favorites in

1048
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,799
Speaker 4: Bergamo via Real plus three thirty the draw plus three

1049
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 4: twenty three pm kickoff on Wednesday. This is a fun

1050
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 4: one to set up on in terms of game state,

1051
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,879
Speaker 4: because vio Real gets through with just a draw. Well,

1052
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 4: Adelanta needs to win. So depending on how this game

1053
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 4: plays out, fun one till I bet if you're into

1054
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 4: following these kind of chaos series.

1055
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 5: Look, I rarely like big jews with teams.

1056
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 4: I want to say minus one thirty is huge juice,

1057
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 4: But I'm looking towards Adelanta. We're nothing here and I

1058
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 4: know you two have some disagreement and Anthony, you're coming

1059
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 4: with me?

1060
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 5: Yes?

1061
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 3: I am Ladea are absolutely flying. Huge win against Napoli

1062
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 3: on the road on Saturday afternoon was a nice little

1063
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 3: money line cash. I think they're playing at a much

1064
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 3: higher level in Italy right now. When you look at

1065
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 3: the expected goals numbers for the season, they're plus point

1066
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 3: five expect the goal difference per ninety, whereas when you

1067
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 3: look at vill Viria all in Spain, kind of in

1068
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 3: a bit of a slog here, like they're not performing

1069
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 3: particularly well plus point two per ninety. They've had a

1070
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 3: ton of defensive miscues that have led to goals in

1071
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 3: these last few games. In Barcelona, game just gave away

1072
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: the game with a dumb penalty and a dumb giveaway

1073
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 3: a bad header on a long ball. When they played

1074
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 3: Man United, it was a bad pass from Ruley out

1075
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 3: of the back that led to United's game winning goal.

1076
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 3: Did not offer much once they went behind against Sevilla,

1077
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 3: and I'm not saying Atalanta is on Sevilla's level in

1078
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 3: terms of defensive ability, but Adalanta's ability to put pressure

1079
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 3: on the back line to force them into mistakes. I

1080
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 3: think we're getting a cheap number here in Atlanta minus

1081
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 3: one twenty five. My numbers minus one forty. I know

1082
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 3: BJ disagrees. I think we always disagree on Atlanta, but

1083
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 3: I love the boys from Bergamo at home to get

1084
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 3: all three points get into the knockout stage. Jean Piero

1085
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 3: got Spadini into the knockout stage.

1086
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 4: BJ I know you are looking towards the yellow submarine

1087
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,439
Speaker 4: on this one, but I think it does big the question,

1088
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 4: as Anthony touched on Atlanta's flying domestically, right now, they

1089
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 4: look good, their underlying numbers are good. It looks like

1090
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:31,879
Speaker 4: that this team that everyone fell in love with two

1091
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 4: years ago is starting to show up again. But where

1092
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 4: do you think this line would be, you know, two

1093
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 4: weeks ago, three weeks ago. I think form obviously matters,

1094
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 4: so that's why it's moved the way, or it's it

1095
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 4: is where it is. I guess you are looking at

1096
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 4: a potential cell high spot on Onalanta.

1097
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is purely a numbers play Listen,

1098
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 1: I don't disagree that Adelanta has been playing really well.

1099
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: I mean zero point five to six expected goals against Juventus,

1100
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: you know, the three three drag its young boys on

1101
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 1: one point four expected goals, so not that great. You know,

1102
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: they obviously they killed Venetia, but who doesn't They killed Spetsia,

1103
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,839
Speaker 1: who doesn't you know, so that kind of inflates their numbers.

1104
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 1: In Syria a viril like you mentioned, they only need

1105
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 1: a draw and as we see with Unaiamery in the past,

1106
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 1: he's very good at setting his team up very defensively

1107
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: to basically play out a draw. Vril is in the

1108
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 1: bottom half table in La Liga, but they do have

1109
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 1: around at plus two expected gold differential, so some positive

1110
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 1: regression is coming for them, especially offensively. They wonly scored

1111
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 1: sixteen goals but have created twenty one expected goals. What

1112
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,839
Speaker 1: worries me about Vril in this type of situation is

1113
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: they haven't played well against the big boys. So like

1114
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 1: you know, our last podcast I mentioned that against you know, Barcelona,

1115
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, they combined lost the expected goals

1116
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 1: about around seven expected goals to two point five. Now

1117
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: is that a lance up in the level of those

1118
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 1: three teams? Probably right now and they are. Yeah, But

1119
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 1: given how good Viril has been in the Champions legue,

1120
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 1: they've actually been the best team by expected goals in

1121
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 1: this group about a plus seven expected gold differential. I

1122
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 1: do think that at all is a tad overvalued here.

1123
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 1: I only have out Alant I believe at around plus

1124
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 1: one seventy. I think you know, this match would be

1125
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 1: around to pick them. If you look at five thirty eight,

1126
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,359
Speaker 1: they only have att Alanta at forty eight percent, which

1127
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 1: creates a little bit of value on Viiial. I understand

1128
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: Atlanta has to win, they got to go for it.

1129
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 1: But as Uniamory is shown in the past, he can

1130
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 1: set his team up very good defensively, essentially parked the

1131
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 1: bus and try to play out a zero zero draws.

1132
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:22,839
Speaker 1: So I'm going to back my boy Uniamory and take

1133
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 1: Viil plus half a goal at plus one fifteen.

1134
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, like I was talking about with Sevia vi a

1135
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 4: Rial another team that is just an absolute menace to

1136
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 4: deal with in knockout football. So if you aren't a

1137
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 4: Beenning Flyers, there are some big numbers out there on

1138
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 4: the Yellow.

1139
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 5: Submarine who won the Europa League last year.

1140
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 4: The team they beat in the Europa League Final is

1141
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 4: Manchester United, who are minus two to fifty five at

1142
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 4: Old Trafford against Young Boys who are plus six fifty

1143
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 4: The draws plus four twenty five three pm kickoff. It's

1144
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 4: a revenge spot for Manchester United who lost to Young

1145
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,360
Speaker 4: Boys in Week one of the Champions League, which feels

1146
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 4: like it was three years ago. The coach or the

1147
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 4: manager of that team has now gone on lygue on

1148
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 4: a solshar incomes Ralph Ragnik. He guides Manchester United to

1149
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 4: a victory in his first match. They are in pretty

1150
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 4: good form since Soulshar left. They're collecting wins right now.

1151
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 4: I don't see much value. Honestly, it would be young

1152
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 4: boys or nothing for me. But I would need a

1153
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 4: much bigger number to go against United on the road,

1154
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 4: So going to stick away.

1155
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 5: From this one. The United's already through.

1156
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,800
Speaker 4: They need a point to clinch first, so the situation

1157
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 4: just as too much nothing for me in this one.

1158
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 5: Anthony would bet.

1159
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,439
Speaker 3: You under three is even money right now. I took

1160
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 3: that right before we started recording this podcast, betting on

1161
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 3: Ragnik defensive improvement before they situate the attack situation. I

1162
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 3: think what we saw in the first match today, I

1163
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 3: watched all ninety minutes against Pallace, the defensive pressing ability

1164
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 3: which I was expecting to see. You're starting to see

1165
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 3: it already and he's only been there, you know. But

1166
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,399
Speaker 3: there's a clear change in the tactics, in the way

1167
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 3: that they are defensively aligned, and I think it's going

1168
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 3: to make them a much better defensive team. On Twitter

1169
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:01,839
Speaker 3: mentioned this they look a lot more like a Ralph

1170
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 3: Housen Hudle Southampton defensive pressing side. Than they do. Maybe

1171
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:09,959
Speaker 3: a Liverpool Jurgen clop heavy metal football, aggressive press. Young

1172
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 3: Boys attack is much better at home in Switzerland and

1173
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 3: they've been on the road. Look no further than the

1174
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 3: reverse fixture when they created way more chances. Same thing

1175
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:19,600
Speaker 3: when they played be a Real at home. Same thing

1176
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 3: when they played that thrilling three to three draw with

1177
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 3: Atlanta at home and they went on the road to

1178
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,839
Speaker 3: Atalanta less than point two expected goals, and they went

1179
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 3: on the road to villly Real not nearly as good

1180
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:32,200
Speaker 3: an attack either. Just don't really know Young Boys goes

1181
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:34,320
Speaker 3: for this here, and I expect United they don't have

1182
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 3: a ton to play for, so they may rotate some attackers,

1183
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 3: maybe no Ronaldo manage his minutes, but I'm expecting them

1184
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 3: to give a full defensive effort here because they're trying

1185
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 3: to figure out their system and their tactics and they

1186
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 3: need the game time and the minutes and the competition

1187
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 3: to do that. So I like under three here. I

1188
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 3: think it's a pretty straightforward victory for United in.

1189
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 4: The end, Jay, before we get to our best bets,

1190
00:50:57,920 --> 00:50:59,319
Speaker 4: do you have any thoughts on this?

1191
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like Anthony mentioned, I'm very interested to

1192
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 1: see you know in the second match, what they do

1193
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 1: in a Rangnick, obviously they're gonna be pressing a lot better,

1194
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: They're going to have more defensive structure. That first match

1195
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 1: against Young Boys, I mean Young Boys deserve that two

1196
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 1: one win. They won unexpectedble is one point four to

1197
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 1: a round point five United. They don't have anything to

1198
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:20,240
Speaker 1: play for, so I do have some projected value on United,

1199
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 1: but at the same time, it's very hard for me

1200
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 1: to lay, you know, multiple goals with a team that

1201
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 1: has nothing to play for and a team like Young

1202
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 1: Boys who is very open at the back, and if

1203
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:33,479
Speaker 1: they're gonna be going for this match, it's a really

1204
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:35,880
Speaker 1: bad matchup no matter who really United has out there

1205
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: as an attacking because you know, even though they've struck,

1206
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:40,880
Speaker 1: United has struggled offensively, and even if Ronomdalo's not out there,

1207
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 1: from a talent level perspective, you've Manchester United is leaps

1208
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 1: and bounds better than Young Boys, So I can say

1209
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,279
Speaker 1: it really doesn't matter who they put out there in

1210
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: terms of attackers. But again, without a team, since they

1211
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 1: have no motivation, they got nothing to play for, it's

1212
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 1: very hard for me lay multiple goals. So I agree

1213
00:51:57,320 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 1: with Anthony, that you know defensive aggression is going to

1214
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 1: come for you. Under ranging, they're going to be playing

1215
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 1: a lot better defensively. This is a situation where we

1216
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 1: could see that could very easy see United winning one

1217
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 1: or two nothing against the young boys. So it's passed for me,

1218
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 1: but I'm interested to see how United plays the second

1219
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:12,799
Speaker 1: time under ranking.

1220
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 4: All right, with that, we will move on to our

1221
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 4: favorite bets of match week six, the final part of

1222
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 4: the group stages of the Champions League.

1223
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 5: Anthony, let's start with you, what is your favorite bet?

1224
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 3: Inter Milan plus a half minus one point thirty at

1225
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 3: the Bernabaut against Real Madrid. No Karen Benzema for Real

1226
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 3: Madrid in this match, big loss for them. Both teams

1227
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:37,439
Speaker 3: are playing for first place. The situation here Intern needs

1228
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 3: a win, Real needs to draw to clinch first place.

1229
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,359
Speaker 3: So if it's tied late, I like inter Milan here.

1230
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be the team going for the win.

1231
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 3: Reale doesn't necessarily need to win it. It's not really

1232
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 3: priced in the market here. Inter was also the better

1233
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 3: team in the first leg that they played at the

1234
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,759
Speaker 3: San zero one. They expect the goals battle two to one.

1235
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 3: Give up a late goal in stoppage time undeserved loss.

1236
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 3: They've also been better in their domestic league in terms

1237
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 3: of pformances. Real Madrid still leaking goals at the back,

1238
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 3: not sure they can defend interhere and their attack which

1239
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:09,400
Speaker 3: have been significantly improved, and so I'm taking them plus

1240
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 3: a half at minus one thirty lane a little bit

1241
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 3: of juice, but think that it's still undervalued.

1242
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:16,360
Speaker 5: MBJ your favorite bet this week.

1243
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:18,839
Speaker 1: I like Savia plus one fifty five on the road

1244
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 1: against Salzburg the first time these two mets. I mean

1245
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 1: Salsburg had three penalties in the first half, so the

1246
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 1: expected final expected goals is about three expected goals for

1247
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 1: Salzburg around one point eight for Savilla, so you see that.

1248
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 1: But if you take away those three penalties, Salisburg only

1249
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,240
Speaker 1: created point seventy five expected goals from open play. Savia

1250
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 1: is one of a top ten team in Europe. They're

1251
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:40,799
Speaker 1: incredibly good defensively, they're very good with their structure, and

1252
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 1: they're very good at changing their tactics and their formations

1253
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 1: given how their opponent plays. So they're going to be

1254
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:48,279
Speaker 1: playing a Salzburg team that's going to come out. They're

1255
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 1: going to press They're going to play high tempo. Savia

1256
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 1: is the best team against the press in LA League.

1257
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 1: Their first and offensive passes per defensive action, they'll be

1258
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,279
Speaker 1: able to play through. Salzburg is the press, you know,

1259
00:53:58,400 --> 00:53:59,759
Speaker 1: much like they did in the first half the last

1260
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:01,399
Speaker 1: time they got a red card in the fiftieth minute,

1261
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 1: which you know through the game for a loop. This

1262
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 1: is still one of the top ten teams in Europe.

1263
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 1: They're way better from a talent perspective than Salzburg. I

1264
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 1: have to be a projected at plus one fifteen, so

1265
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 1: I love them at plus one fifty five.

1266
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 4: And my favorite bet, I like Lil on the money

1267
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 4: line plus two thirty five.

1268
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 5: Wolfsburg.

1269
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:19,680
Speaker 4: They need to win this match to have a chance.

1270
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 4: Lil just needed a result to get through. So I'll

1271
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:26,760
Speaker 4: take one of the best defensive teams in league on

1272
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 4: one of the toughest teams to break down in this tournament.

1273
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 4: They have been incredibly unlucky domestically been pretty impressive. I

1274
00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 4: did not like them coming into this tournament. I've turned

1275
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:38,479
Speaker 4: changed my tune. So give me little plus two thirty

1276
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 4: five against a really, really average Volfsburg team and that

1277
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 4: will do it for Anthony Dubundo for BJ Cunningham.

1278
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 5: I'm Michael Leebop.

1279
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:47,760
Speaker 4: We'll see you guys on Thursday morning where we'll preview

1280
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 4: the Premier League and the rest of Europe into the

1281
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 4: domestic league, and then in a couple of weeks we'll

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Speaker 4: be talking knockout stages of the Champions League.

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Speaker 5: So until then, thank you very much