1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action bolsome. 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: Throwing in so. 4 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: I'm sitting in to cash stop. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble, 6 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: they go to Wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks. 7 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right. This is the 8 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: ultimate kabanity if you want to pull. 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: And we are underway. 10 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 1: Welcome everybody, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. Happy New Year. 11 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybien. This is a very special 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: NFL Week eighteen betting preview. Today we'll build our Sunday 13 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: six pack up against the spread bets with the help 14 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, 15 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 1: Stucky Stucky with up. Happy New Year. I hope your 16 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: week was better than mine, because I had another just 17 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 1: terrible betting week. How about you. 18 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 2: Happy New Year, Happy to year to everybody. Now another 19 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: losing week for many. This year's has been terrible. Sorry 20 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 2: to anyone who's been following. I've had three other years 21 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 2: like this in other sports where I think like two 22 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 2: years ago college basketball, six or seven years ago college football, 23 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 2: two thousand and nine NFL where you have bad calls 24 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: and then like everything else just works against you as well. 25 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 2: Falcons and overtime was brutal. I know you lost the 26 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: Broncos in overtime. The forty nine ers, I mean that's 27 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: a dog that covers ninety nine out of one hundred times. 28 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 2: In the past, they had a sixty percent success rate. 29 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: The only teams's had a sixty percent success rate this 30 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 2: season five Yeah, they've all won by thirty or more. Lion, 31 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: the discrepancy between the good and bad teams is wider 32 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 2: than I've assumed. And you also got to remember still 33 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 2: one season of small sample sizes, like like I mentioned before, 34 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: two thousand and nine was like this, everything went back 35 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 2: to normal. But we could have nine teams this year 36 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 2: that finished with four or fewer wins. We've never had 37 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 2: more than seven, so bottom of the NFL. And like would, 38 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 2: favorites are just on a historical run. I mean, I 39 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 2: think since Week six or hitting fifty eight percent against 40 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 2: the spread, I mean that is I can't even put 41 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 2: into words how crazy that is. Favorites of more of 42 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 2: six or more points. We're twenty seven to one in 43 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 2: the month of December. The only one who won was 44 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 2: the team incentivized to lose the Giants last week. 45 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, go figure out. That's a bit called by UML. 46 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 2: The only team that has brought me joy this year 47 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 2: is Drew Locke. That's it. The worst quarterback in the NFL. 48 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 2: Basically got to win every bet to make it a 49 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 2: good year from here on out. So that's what I'm 50 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 2: going to try to do. 51 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: All right, Let's go straight into the week eighteen six 52 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: pack Thursday for action. 53 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 2: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. 54 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: All right, so we'll jump right into our Week eighteen 55 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: Sunday six pack. No Thursday night football this week. We 56 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 1: got a couple of Saturday games included in the six pack, 57 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: Ravens Browns and the Bengals Steelers. So the got the 58 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: AFC Norse playing Saturday. Everyone else is on Sunday. Our 59 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: Week eighteen six pack forty seven thirty eight is the score. 60 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: Trying to get back right here. I'm up first for 61 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: the first pick of the week eighteen six pack. I'm 62 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: going with the New York Jets plus one and a 63 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: half against the Miami Dolphins. And this just comes down 64 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: to a couple of things. Number One Dolphins doesn't look 65 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: like Tua is gonna go you know, I thought he 66 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: would have gone last week if he was going to, 67 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: but apparently the hip injury is worse than they led on. 68 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: Been just a weird year for injuries. I thought for 69 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: sure he would have played last week, but it looks 70 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: like he's going to miss again. And for the Jets, 71 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: you know, whether it's Rogers or whoever, you know, Tyrod Taylor, 72 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: this going. Yeah, I mean that's what I think too. 73 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: But you might see some Tyron in this game, never know, 74 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that Rogers is going to go 75 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: for the Jets. You know, they're still playing for pride. 76 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: They still do have some veterans on that team. And 77 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: I just think this team, you know, pretty similar to Miami. 78 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: I guess they're like the Jets played worse than their 79 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: record Miami, you know, especially if Ta doesn't go. They're 80 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 1: just a middling kind of blow average team going on 81 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 1: the road to the East, you know, to East Coast 82 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: City late in the year. Give me the New York 83 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: Jets here to end it right and probably uh kiss 84 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: their fans off and getting by getting a win here. 85 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, I just would have been one of mine, because 86 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: I don't Again, we're it's early in the week of 87 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 2: recording this on Tuesday morning, so a lot of guests 88 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 2: work when he's gonna play. I they came out and 89 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 2: they said Rodgers is going to start. They expect Rodgers 90 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 2: to start, Over said, judging from the verbage, I don't 91 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: think two is going to go. I think that this 92 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 2: line would be fair if to a Went. I don't 93 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 2: think so spar is gonna go. Wat'll getting it back. 94 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 2: So if accounting for all that, I think this line 95 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 2: would be fair if to a Went. But without Tua, 96 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 2: I mean, I think that the Jets be like a 97 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 2: field goal favorite here. It's part of like what's going 98 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: on with the Jets does worry me, Like some of 99 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 2: the just the background stuff with some of the comments, 100 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 2: and there's I don't know where the vibes are, but 101 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 2: I expect them to show up here. They can end 102 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 2: the Dolphins season. We see this all the time. Teams 103 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 2: that are eliminated in the final week of the season 104 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 2: historically sixty percent against the spread against teams that are 105 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 2: playing that need to win to get in the playoffs 106 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 2: last week. It's over the final two weeks of the 107 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 2: regular season, I should say. Is that stat dating back 108 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: to nineteen ninety sample size of about two hundred games, 109 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 2: and we saw it last week. Those teams I think 110 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 2: went three and three, Giants being one that won outright. 111 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 2: We saw the Cardinals cover and we saw the Bears 112 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 2: cover as well. Were the three teams that did cover 113 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 2: divisional rival They lost to them in overtime earlier this season. 114 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 2: So I think they get up for this game. And 115 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 2: the Jets have just been extremely unlucky last week. They 116 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 2: got their bell wrung in Buffalo. That will happen, but yeah, 117 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 2: I mean this Miami team is extremely limited. I think 118 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 2: on both sides of the wall. If Huntley goes and 119 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 2: a touching from the verbiage, I think that that's going 120 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 2: to be the case here. 121 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: And they're not even bury the lead. We also have 122 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: thirty one degrees forecast, double digit wins, slight chance of snow. 123 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: We know, we know that Dolphins don't like to play 124 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 1: in that, especially the end of the year. So ah yeah, 125 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: that that's cirking into Jets favor as well. 126 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 2: For my first pick of the week, eighteen Sunday six pack, 127 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 2: I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks minus three at the 128 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:48,840 Speaker 2: Los Angeles Rams. I'd play this up to four. I 129 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 2: think that this line. This line reflects that some starters 130 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 2: are going to be out for the Rams, but I 131 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 2: don't think it's fully accounted for if you look back historically. Now, 132 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 2: the Rams do have like a semi incentive, right because 133 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 2: if they win, then you can avoid you can avoid 134 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 2: playing either the Vikings or the Lions, whoever loses that game. 135 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 2: But if you look historically, McVeigh doesn't care about seeding. 136 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 2: So you go back to his back to twenty seventeen. 137 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 2: They clinched the division in week sixteen, same exact scenario 138 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 2: as this second to last week, and they were locked 139 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 2: into the three or four same scenario, but they decided 140 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 2: to rest their starters and they lost to the forty 141 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 2: nine ers by twenty one, and then they ended up 142 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 2: losing the wildcard round. Last year they clinched the playoff 143 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 2: firth and the second to last week, Week eighteen, they 144 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 2: could have been the sixth they could have been the 145 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: seventh seed, they decided to rest their starters. They ended 146 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 2: up winning anyway because the forty nine ers also rested 147 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 2: their starters, and then they got the sixth seed. And look, 148 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 2: this team hasn't had a buy since week five or six, 149 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 2: so they haven't had a buye and forever. You can 150 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 2: kind of see it in the way that they're playing 151 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 2: like lately. I know that they keep winning, but I 152 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 2: mean it's been ugly for the past three weeks since 153 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 2: that Bills game. They've just gotten rather fortunate. So I 154 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 2: think that they're going to rest all their key guys, 155 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 2: and I think that's even more important for the Rams. 156 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 2: We talked about this early on in the season during 157 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 2: the preseason. The Rams don't have great depth, like just 158 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 2: to cross their roster, so if you're resting key starters, 159 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 2: I think it's going to show more than it would 160 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 2: with other teams. Now you have a veteran at quarterback, 161 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 2: Jimmy g will start, but this is like a star 162 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: heavy team. And then on the other side, I do 163 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 2: think that the Seahawks show up. I think that they'll 164 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 2: care McDonald, I trust in. I know that they were 165 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:48,959 Speaker 2: eliminated last week, so there is a little bit of 166 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 2: a question of incentive. But divisional game, you have revenge 167 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 2: against the team that beat you at home in a 168 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 2: game you should have won, and it's the Seahawks on turf, 169 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 2: and that's a completely different offense this year. In three 170 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 2: games on turf. They scored twenty nine to thirty and 171 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 2: thirty four. Gino has major incentives he can get. He 172 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 2: can get up to, like, very realistically, four million dollars 173 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,439 Speaker 2: in this game, because I think needs one hundred and 174 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 2: eighty six yards, has to have a reasonable completion percentage. 175 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 2: So I don't think that they're going to sit him, 176 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 2: and I don't think you get Sam Halle here, So 177 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 2: I think you get a full effort from the Seahawks. 178 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 2: And I think the Rams are number one. Rest of 179 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 2: start is number two. They're spending the week preparing for 180 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: their one of their potential playoff opponents, so I think 181 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 2: this line will continue to move. 182 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense. Ram's very notorious for going all 183 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: in when it comes to just resting guys if that 184 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 1: if it comes to it, We've seen it in the 185 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,719 Speaker 1: preseason two. You know that's mcveigh's kind of prioritizes that. 186 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:53,319 Speaker 1: So I can see the Seahawks being the only one 187 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 1: that go hard. Hopefully Gino doesn't just try to protect 188 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 1: the completion percentage. I mean, what it's some of those 189 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: like what that game against Icago, I don't know what 190 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: that was, but I what did you think of grub 191 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,719 Speaker 1: in that game, I thought I thought he was like 192 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,199 Speaker 1: some of the third down calls, it was like, you know, 193 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: third and long, you just throw a little bubble screen 194 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 1: like one yard beyond the line of scrimmage. 195 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 2: I don't what they were doing. Yeah, I don't know 196 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 2: if they're just were like the Bears aren't going to score. 197 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 2: It was odd, very bizarre game. Yeah, but the carrible 198 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,679 Speaker 2: game off extra rest here too, and they just look 199 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 2: like a different offense when they're playing in conditions like this. 200 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 2: So I think you get a good effort from Seattle, 201 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:35,839 Speaker 2: and I just think you get the Rams backups, their 202 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 2: all their key starters. Sit team with that with not 203 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 2: much depth, So I like the Seahawks. 204 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: I'm gonna make a pivot here. So we talked about 205 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,719 Speaker 1: one of these AFC West teams. I'm actually gonna go 206 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: to the different AFC West team here. So my second 207 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: pick and the third overall the Week eighteen six pack, 208 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Kansas City Chiefs plus ten 209 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: at the Denver Broncos here, another team not incentive to 210 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: win here. They got the number one seed locked up, 211 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: but you're talking about the Chiefs on long rest. Still, 212 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,839 Speaker 1: the Chiefs coaching staff still still a team that in 213 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: the Broncos, that is a younger team you know, hasn't 214 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: been there before, played in a tough, you know, demoralizing 215 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: overtime game the week before, so you could see you know, 216 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: them playing a little closer to the vest if it's 217 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:27,599 Speaker 1: if it's you know, a close game, they might not 218 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 1: go for it and every fourth down might just settle 219 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 1: for field goals here. And you know, I mean the 220 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 1: chief they have what three four weeks off, so they 221 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: actually have to play a meaningful game. So I still 222 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: think they're going to prepare for this Bronco team they can, 223 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: they have a chance to potentially knock them out of 224 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 1: the playoffs. So yeah, give me the Chiefs plus ten. 225 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 1: I just think even with all the starters resting, I 226 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: mean this line, I mean you're talking about like essentially 227 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: a double digit move. That's just a lot of points 228 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: for me for a Chiefs team that I still think 229 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 1: is going to show up probably be a low scoring 230 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 1: divisional game, and it's still you know bo Nicks and 231 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: the Broncos. You can have some mistakes here, So yeah, 232 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: give me the Chiefs plus ten at the Broncos. 233 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this I mean, it's it's a very 234 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 2: difficult one to handicap. Who exactly is going to sit 235 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 2: out for the Chiefs? You know, most of their key 236 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 2: guys are so like breaking this down, if the Chiefs 237 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 2: were fully healthy, what are they here? Four point favorite? 238 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 2: If they're yeah, incentive line, So yeah, Mahomes is worth 239 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 2: like probably close to a touchdown to the spread. 240 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 1: YEP. 241 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 2: Now what I'm struggling to just and look the Chiefs 242 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 2: rest of their starters four times before in this situation, 243 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 2: all four times under Andy Read. Twenty thirteen, they were 244 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 2: plus fourteen and a half at the Chargers, who needed 245 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 2: to win for the playoffs, and the Chiefs blew a 246 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 2: late ten point lead. They actually missed a Fuel goal 247 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 2: to win. The Chargers got away with a penalty, the 248 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 2: NFL had to and the Chargers ended up winning an overtime. 249 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 2: The The NFL had to offer an apology after the game. 250 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:07,199 Speaker 2: They were plus fourteen and a half, should have won 251 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 2: twenty seventeen plus three. They won at Denver twenty seven 252 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 2: to twenty four. That was my Homes his first start. 253 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:15,719 Speaker 2: He actually came out of again, came back in to 254 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 2: lead the Fuel with the game winning Fuel Remember that one. Yeah, 255 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, Chad Henny was plus seven against Herbert at 256 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 2: the Chargers in a totally meaningless game. They got blown 257 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: out in that one thirty eight twenty one. He was 258 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 2: competitive in the first half. And then last year Blaine 259 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,199 Speaker 2: Gabbert plus three and a half first East and Stick 260 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: at the Chargers they covered in one outright, thirteen to 261 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 2: twelve in an ugly one. So they're three and one 262 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 2: against the spread in these spots. They've been a dog 263 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 2: in all four and they should have won three of 264 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 2: the four. 265 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 1: Yep. 266 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 2: So, and it's you know, Andy Reid knows how to 267 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 2: handle these situations. I do agree that the Broncos probably 268 00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 2: played as conservatively now, so I think it's a bit 269 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 2: you're paying. I think there's a premium on the Broncos 270 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 2: given the spot here. Very low total too. I mean, 271 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 2: if you look who this year Broncos one win over 272 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 2: a playoff team, I think that's still all they have 273 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 2: going back to I think the Bucks early in the season. Yeah, 274 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 2: the one what I do struggle with and Carson Wentz 275 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 2: is I think better than a lot of those. 276 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly right. 277 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 2: Gabbert, his company, Chase Daniel, the where I struggle with 278 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 2: is like the Chiefs offensive line has been such a mess, 279 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: Like what are you going to get a tackle? And 280 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 2: then you don't have Mahomes to like, and the Broncos 281 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 2: are going to bring pressure, so like, does it just 282 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 2: completely fall apart on Wentz? But uh, you know, I 283 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 2: expect you get who you're gonna get here. You're gonna 284 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 2: get You'll get Carson Steele, p Ryo. 285 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: Good guys, you get professional football. I mean the Chiefs 286 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 1: their depth is lacking at certain spots, but I mean 287 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: this is still a deeper team than most in the NFL, 288 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: and the coaching staff is still good. And who knows. 289 00:14:57,720 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: I mean with the Broncos bringing pressure for example, is 290 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: is that something they dialed back because of the you know, 291 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: like I just think this team hasn't really you know, 292 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: Sean Payton's been here, but this team really hasn't. So yeah, 293 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: I'll take the I'll take the two touchdown adjustment. Oh day, 294 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: because I've seen this too many times. 295 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, all the pressure, yeah is on Denver. So you 296 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 2: Chiefs can play completely loose here and you see a 297 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 2: lot This NFL season is different, but in the past 298 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 2: you would see this game be close and tight and 299 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 2: a lot of drama down to the wire. All Right, 300 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 2: for my second pick, any fourth overall of the week, 301 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 2: eighteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens. 302 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 2: Mind is notine in a half first half against the 303 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns. Shop around. There's nine and a half tens, 304 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 2: ten and a half's out there. Obviously, try to get 305 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 2: the best number. As always. Ravens first game on Saturday, 306 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 2: obviously fully incentivized here. They win this game, they clinched 307 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 2: the division. They lose, they leave the door open for 308 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 2: the Steelers to win and take the division later on 309 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 2: on Saturday night. So you're gonna get a full effort 310 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 2: from the Ravens here. What are you getting from the Browns? 311 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 2: I don't think Winston's gonna go He would make this 312 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 2: bet a little scarer just because of the variants. Pretty 313 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 2: confident in that. I think it's either another DTR game 314 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 2: or it's Bailey. 315 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: ZAPPI Bailey Zappy. 316 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 2: Those are I think the two options that the Browns 317 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 2: are gonna go with. I think Strong and Ford might 318 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 2: both be out. I think Denzel Ward is out as well. 319 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 2: I think their best remaining linebacker and Hicks might be out. Also, 320 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 2: how are the Browns going to score? They can't score anymore? 321 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 2: Does that? What are they just going to run forman 322 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 2: into walls? They can't throw it, you can't run on Baltimore. 323 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 2: Baltimore's defense trending way up over the past six weeks. 324 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: I guess the pass is Yeah, they really fixed the 325 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: pass defense, that's what it was. 326 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all the skip. They made a couple of 327 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 2: scmatch changes, and then most importantly, they move some guys around. 328 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 2: Talked about that a few times. And then this is 329 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 2: one of the best offenses in the NFL. And then 330 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 2: you have Lamar Jacks and look, they have revenge here 331 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:04,959 Speaker 2: playing for the division at home. They're going to come 332 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 2: out with their hair on fire. Lamar fifty eight thirty 333 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 2: three and two against the spread in the first half. 334 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 2: Most profitable quarterback in NFL history sixty three point seven 335 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 2: percent covered by a field goal per game, which is 336 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 2: super impressive for a first half. Fifty twenty seven and 337 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 2: two against the spread is a first half favorite. That's 338 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 2: sixty five percent, covering by three and a half points 339 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,120 Speaker 2: per game. And then how it when lang Over six 340 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 2: points twelve to two and one against the spread when 341 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 2: laying over a touchdown in the first half four to 342 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 2: oho against the spread. So I think the Ravens come 343 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 2: out I expect them to score. I don't know, seventeen 344 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 2: to twenty points. How are the brown scoring? This is 345 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 2: an ugly situation. I don't want to lay the seventeen 346 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,360 Speaker 2: and a half because the Raidons are going to play 347 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 2: next week. If they win this game, they're going to 348 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 2: host a playoff game. And if they're just up like 349 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 2: twenty one nothing in this game, then you go into 350 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 2: and the Browns can't do anything, then you just go 351 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,239 Speaker 2: into who preserve, make sure we stay healthy, get out 352 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 2: of town, right, So that's what would then, you know, 353 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 2: leaves the back door open. You could be up twenty 354 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 2: four late and then give up a touchdown and not 355 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 2: cover seventeen and a half. But I think the Ravens 356 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 2: come out here, score on three four possessions and I 357 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 2: don't see the Browns doing much. So give me the 358 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 2: Ravens first half trying to just there two favorites to start. 359 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:23,679 Speaker 2: The Dogs don't cover. 360 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: Anymo Yeah apparently, yeah, no, I mean it's always it's 361 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 1: kind of nerve wrecking because yeah, it is one of 362 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: those spots where the Browns don't have any incentives, which 363 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 1: in the past you would say, Okay, Browns probably cover, 364 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: but I mean, you are going first half and the Browns, Yeah, 365 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: I don't know how they like dtr is so bad 366 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 1: and if we're not getting him, I mean, I guess 367 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: zactly would be an upgrade, but yeah, not by much. 368 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 1: All right. For my third pick in the fifth overall 369 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 1: of the week eighteen six pack of bone with the 370 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 1: Houston Texans plus one and a half against the Tennessee Titans, 371 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: And it looks like the Titans have tickets money. The 372 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: Texans can rest their starters in this spot. If they've 373 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: come out and said they're not going to we'll see 374 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 1: how long that last. I think they at some point 375 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: they will. 376 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 2: But looking at the Titans this year, quote from Demiko 377 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 2: was everybody asked you ready to go, and we'll see 378 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 2: how the game goes. Yeah, So I have no idea 379 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 2: what that means. 380 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: I think it means he's probably gonna play some guys 381 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 1: and not as long as other guys. 382 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 2: But uh, they need to get the offense going, yeah, 383 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 2: and they need to get that taste out of their 384 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 2: mouth from last week. I mean they're locked into their 385 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 2: seed too, so he got there. They're just trying to 386 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 2: balance like health and then also vibes around the team 387 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 2: and then also just hey, let's get the offense doing something, 388 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 2: because they offense since losing Tank Dell. They were rolling 389 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 2: in that Chiefs game. Lose Tank Dell, no pun intended, 390 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 2: went to the tank the rest of that game. And 391 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 2: then against the Ravens. 392 00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 1: Nothing nothing, Yeah, And like what better team to beat 393 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: up on than the Tennessee Titans. And like this is 394 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: the thing of the Titans. We've talked about this. They're 395 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: point shaving operation. And now they're in a position where 396 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 1: like the number one pick can come into play again. 397 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: I mean, they lose to the Jaguars that and I 398 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: think they end up closing as a favorite in that game. 399 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: I don't even know, I don't know how, but they 400 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: end up closing is a favorite against the Jags. 401 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 2: The only favorite you can trust the fade this year 402 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 2: is the. 403 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 1: Titans, right yeah, so yeah, give me the Texans because 404 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 1: you know it's it's like, on one hand, you see 405 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: the money coming in on Titans, You're like, what, like, okay, 406 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: but I just don't think that even if it comes 407 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: down to a full game of Davis Mills and Texan 408 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 1: backups against the Titans. I think the Titans find a 409 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: way to lose this game. That's what. And you we 410 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: saw Callahan and Carton, you know, the coach in the 411 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: GM get a vote of confidence from ownership. I think 412 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: it was last week. So you know, I think the 413 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: tank is back on in full strength. It's probably been 414 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: on this whole time. But yeah, I just don't think 415 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 1: the text the Titans against Texans backups against Texans starters 416 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 1: are gonna get it done. And if we get the starter, 417 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: because essentially this line is saying we're not getting Texan starters. 418 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: If we get the Texans starters for any amount of time, 419 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: you know, the Texans should be bigger favorites here. You 420 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,479 Speaker 1: have t if you have a road dog coming off 421 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 1: a loss of twenty or more, sixty to forty nine 422 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: to fifty five percent against the spread, road dog, a 423 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: dog five hundred or better that scored less than ten 424 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 1: points in the last game. The Texans scored two seventy eight, 425 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: forty one and three sixty six percent over the past 426 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 1: two decades twenty seven percent ROI. So I think the 427 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,439 Speaker 1: Texans do show up, whether it's the backups or the starters, 428 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,360 Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not even concerned. I think I think 429 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: this line is giving them essentially like zero chance of 430 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 1: playing the starters, which, judging from what the Miko Ryans 431 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 1: is saying, I think that's closer to they play for 432 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 1: more like a preseason game, a quarter half, maybe even 433 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: longer and depending on this out of the ball. So yeah, 434 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: give me the Texans here plus one and a half. 435 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,479 Speaker 2: I have zero feel I don't know what the Texans 436 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,640 Speaker 2: are doing and how long they're going to play their starters, 437 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 2: so I but I'm not betting the Titans. I'll tell 438 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 2: you that, all right. For my third pick and the 439 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 2: sixth overall of the week eighteen Sunday six pack, I'm 440 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 2: going with the Dallas Cowboys plus four and a half 441 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 2: at home against the Washington Commanders. Once it's hit four 442 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 2: and a half, this is down at three and a half, 443 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 2: I gotta take the Cowboys four and a half, like 444 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 2: that's a key number in Dallas. Because Washington scores a touchdown, 445 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 2: you get twenty yards at home. Aubrey kicks a sixty 446 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 2: five yard field goal him at home. It's just like 447 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 2: you just need twenty yards. Now the Dallas offense without 448 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 2: Ceedee Lamb, it's rough. He was the target monster on 449 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 2: that team. Commanders are incentivized here. I don't think they're 450 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 2: going to rest their starters because if you win, then 451 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 2: you lock in to the six and you avoid you know, 452 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 2: you play the Rams or who you would play? Who 453 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 2: you would play the Rams? Or who am I missing? 454 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 2: Or the Bucks? Rams or Bucks instead of the Eagles. 455 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,160 Speaker 2: Whether the works is Washington wins, they clinched the six. 456 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,360 Speaker 2: If Washington loses in green Bay wins, then green Bay 457 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 2: would jump up to the six. So they are incentivized here. 458 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 2: But it's a tough spot for you know, young team 459 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 2: coming off that emotional win. It was like one of 460 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 2: the biggest games in recent Commander's history, clinching a playoff 461 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 2: spot in overtime. But it's not like this team is 462 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 2: playing great lately, and they've had the easiest schedule in 463 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 2: the NFL to date. They've won five games on the 464 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:58,679 Speaker 2: final play I mean, like going back all the way 465 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,879 Speaker 2: to the Hall, Mary, do you want to know how 466 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 2: many playoff teams they've beat this year? One and it 467 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 2: was the Eagles who lost Jalen Hurts to injury and 468 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 2: they were about to blow that game open. The last 469 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 2: the Canando's have won three straight. Here's their results against 470 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback making his first start in overtime because 471 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 2: of a missed field goal and horrendous clock management game 472 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 2: they should have lost Hayn Rattler in New Orleans on 473 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 2: a two point stop and then Pickett who had to 474 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 2: come in for Hurts on the final play at the game. Like, 475 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 2: this team's getting pretty fortunate. They have some offensive line 476 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 2: injury questions. The defense is still very bad. Cowboys can 477 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 2: lean on Daddle here and Aubrey just getting like twenty 478 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,200 Speaker 2: yard drives for free points. Commander's also like they have 479 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 2: nineteen fumbles on the year, they've only lost six. They're 480 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 2: nineteen of twenty two on fourth down, Like they've just 481 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,400 Speaker 2: like so many high leverage things have gone their way 482 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 2: all season long. I don't think it's gonna last forever. 483 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,719 Speaker 2: I think the Cowboys show up in the final home game. 484 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,919 Speaker 2: They got embarrassed last week. This is the division rival. 485 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 2: Let no lamb Hurts here. But defense is still playing hard. 486 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 2: They played Washington very well in Washington, and they I 487 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 2: mean they played the run well. They can get pressure here, 488 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 2: especially if Washington's not a full strengthen on the offensive line. 489 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 2: And yeah, I think the Cowboys can stay within four 490 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 2: and a half. So give me Dallas plus the points 491 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 2: at home. 492 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, Washington's offense did not look good in that game. 493 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,439 Speaker 1: You know it was that was the game with all 494 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: the odd special teams, you know, those multiple returns by 495 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 1: the Cowboys and the missfield goals and just but yeah, 496 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: Washington's offense just didn't seem to really have anything going 497 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 1: for the first fifty five minutes of that game. And 498 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:55,200 Speaker 1: then they got the crazy Tera McLaurin, not Hail Mary, 499 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: but just like a crazy play at the end of 500 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: that to score a touchdown. So yeah, I could see, 501 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 1: I could see the couple is hanging around here, all right. 502 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 2: It's just the commanders at the Commanders. Daniels has been awesome, 503 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 2: but I mean it's been ugly the last three weeks. 504 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 2: They could have easily gone oh in three. I mean, 505 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 2: Hurts doesn't get hurt. They lose that game, New Orleans 506 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 2: gets a two point conversion. I know that there's a 507 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 2: clock malfunction in that game, but still the offense didn't 508 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,119 Speaker 2: look great in that game. And then against Atlanta, I 509 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,400 Speaker 2: mean Atlanta just comedy Bears, and you win a coin toss. 510 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,400 Speaker 2: Before that, their wins were over the Giants by five, 511 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 2: against the Titans, against the Bears by three on a 512 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 2: hail Mary, against the Panthers, the Browns, the Cardinals, and 513 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 2: you got to go back. They beat the Giants in 514 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 2: week two because they didn't have a kicker. You got 515 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 2: the most impressive win. You got to go back to Bengals. 516 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 2: Bengals had Cincy. I think they show up. They seem 517 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 2: like they still care at least. 518 00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 1: All right, So that's our six pack. We got. Let's 519 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:05,479 Speaker 1: see some Ginos, some Lamar, some Cooper Rush. I got 520 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 1: some Rogers Wentz and maybe some Davis Mills, maybe some CJ. 521 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,360 Speaker 1: We'll see. But Seattle Baltimore first half and the Cowboys 522 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: for stuck, Jets, Chiefs, Texans for me, that's our wee 523 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: eighteen six pack. Now it's time for our coaches pep talk. 524 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: Every time we get ready to play, I just want 525 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: to throw up. 526 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:25,400 Speaker 2: I'm sick. 527 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 1: I'm watching you guys play. Just how bad can it get? 528 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 2: All right? 529 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,880 Speaker 1: This week's coach of pep Talk comes to us from 530 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:36,880 Speaker 1: a legendary coach and zero times Super Bowl champion Marty Schottenheimer. 531 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 1: We're dedicating it to dead to all the underdogs, man, 532 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,159 Speaker 1: because this has been just as the rough year for 533 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,880 Speaker 1: the dogs. Man. Hopefully they bark in Week eighteen. Best 534 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: of up to all of them, especially the ones we're 535 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 1: betting on. Mind the mountain, you take one step at 536 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,679 Speaker 1: a time, don't go looking at the top. You end 537 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 1: up flipping on your ass. One step at a time. 538 00:27:58,800 --> 00:27:58,879 Speaker 2: Man. 539 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:00,920 Speaker 1: The only step in some horton is the next one. 540 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,399 Speaker 1: Let's get into our favorite total of the week. All right, 541 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,680 Speaker 1: I went first with six pack. Where are you going 542 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:08,200 Speaker 1: for the total? 543 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 2: Yeah? I was originally gonna go Jacksonville, Indy over. I 544 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 2: just think that game like it's squirrely. If Flaco starts, 545 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,360 Speaker 2: I mean, he's just going to be chucking it deep 546 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 2: like he did in the first meeting the mac Jones. 547 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 2: In that offense, they're still playing hard like that's just 548 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 2: but I'd like if the Colts just not show up 549 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 2: or they have corpse, I don't know so and I 550 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 2: don't know if it's going to be Richardson or Flac though, 551 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 2: And I get it wrong every time I get all 552 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 2: the Colts injury whatever, my projections are the opposite happens. 553 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 2: So let me just go Carolina Atlanta over forty seven 554 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 2: and a half. I'd like what I've seen from Panix. 555 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: This Panthers defense is really bad, like Atlanta's gonna be 556 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 2: able to run on them. They have injuries, they're back 557 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 2: to like the unit we saw earlier this year with 558 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 2: all the injuries they had. And then on offense, I 559 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 2: think Bryce Young and company indoors can move the ball 560 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 2: through the air. There's no Hubbard. I think they'll be 561 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 2: throwing it more here last game of the year, Let's 562 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 2: see more from Young. So I think this thing potentially 563 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 2: turns into a back and forth shootout. And I mean 564 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 2: the Panthers at this point, how do you not get 565 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 2: to thirty on them? And I just think Panix opens 566 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 2: up that Falcons offense so much more. You can do 567 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 2: so many more things. Just the versatility of that offense 568 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 2: off of the run game, with him being able to 569 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 2: move out of the pocket, you can actually throw with 570 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 2: a quarterback that's gonna move outside the tackle box. And 571 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 2: I've liked what I've seen from him so far. So yeah, 572 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 2: let me go Falcons Panthers over forty seven and a half. 573 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go with the final game of 574 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: the year. Let's go Ryans Vikes under forty, under fifty 575 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 1: seven and a half. I just think this is a 576 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 1: massive number. It's gonna be a game, you know, four 577 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 1: the number one seed, playoff implications, second divisional game matchup 578 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: jually a little lower scoring, a little tighter, and I know, 579 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: you know, you're not Campbell's not gonna you know, He's 580 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 1: still going to be aggressive or whatnot. But I just 581 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 1: think that, you know, these teams, I think you could 582 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: see some some turnovers from Darnold that potentially, you know, 583 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 1: en some drives for the Vikings, and I just think 584 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,719 Speaker 1: you have to be you have to be pretty much 585 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 1: perfect here with the total this high for and especially 586 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 1: in a like a game with playoffs implications things on 587 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 1: the line here, I just think this is way too high. 588 00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,720 Speaker 1: Maybe if it was a mid season game, maybe if 589 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: it was the first divisional matchup, but second one, I 590 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 1: still think this total should be in the low low fifties. Obviously, 591 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 1: two great offenses, but I think Minnesota's been getting a 592 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 1: little bit lucky on offense, and we've seen this, you know, 593 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 1: just unders this year or unders since twenty twenty one 594 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,480 Speaker 1: when the total was above forty nine or ninety five 595 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 1: and sixty five fifty nine percent, and this one is 596 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: way high. And so yeah, I have to go with 597 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 1: the under. Fifty seven and a half. Vikings Lions last 598 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 1: game of the year should be a good one. But 599 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 1: fifty seven and a half, I feel like that's a 600 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 1: little inflated because of the prime time, because of the 601 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: stakes and whatnot. 602 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 2: I you're brave, man, I can't get there. I mean, 603 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 2: the Lions defense, since all these injuries happened over the 604 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,160 Speaker 2: past three has been the worst in the NFL. I mean, statistically, 605 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 2: they're basically dead, even with the Panthers. And I mean, look, 606 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 2: they gave up forty eight to Buffalo. They even allowed 607 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 2: the Bears, who cannot move the ball right now, to 608 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,920 Speaker 2: put up four hundred yards of offense. That's when I 609 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 2: knew that they were in trouble with all these injuries. 610 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 2: And then San Francisco, one of the five teams that 611 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 2: you got sixty percent success rate, they had five hundred 612 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 2: yards of offense. They all came the Lions four seventy 613 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 2: five to four to thirty nine. The only reason they 614 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 2: stopped them if San Fran puts up fifty in that game, 615 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 2: Rock Party overthrows a wide open receiver and they miss 616 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 2: multiple field goals in that game. They probably in that 617 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 2: game with forty five fifty O'Connell against this defense that 618 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:13,800 Speaker 2: has nothing, I don't know, and then the Lions are 619 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 2: just gonna score on anybody. And look, Vikings. I was 620 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 2: really impressed with that win last week. But I will say, 621 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 2: like it's been a hell of a year. One of 622 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 2: the only things. It's been a great year for the Vikings. 623 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 2: But if you look back, they've won what ten straight 624 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:39,200 Speaker 2: or nine? Yeah, now they've won nine straight. Here or 625 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 2: here are the games Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Chicago in overtime, 626 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 2: Arizona by one, Atlanta with cousins, Chicago, Seattle in a 627 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,480 Speaker 2: game they were outplayed in by three. None of those 628 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 2: teams are going to the playoffs. Like, they finally beat 629 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 2: a playoff team last week, and the only playoff team 630 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 2: they beat in the entire season is the Backers twice 631 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 2: by I combined four points. So the schedule broke their 632 00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 2: way this year. I make this because of all the 633 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,640 Speaker 2: Detroit injuries. I mean, that team can't stop anyone did 634 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 2: this game. I wish I had a take on the side. 635 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 2: I think I make this like two Detroit minus two, 636 00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 2: and it's gonna come down to just that, like does 637 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 2: Donald throw a pick in the red zone? Like does 638 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 2: he turn it over? Otherwise I don't see the Lions 639 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 2: getting stops, and then it's probably gonna come down to 640 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,080 Speaker 2: Campbell fourth downs. I cannot bet the under here like 641 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 2: I need like sixty. 642 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 1: I gotta go under here. Total Caroline Atlanta over forty 643 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: seven and a half, Detroit Minnesota under fifty seven and 644 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:55,600 Speaker 1: a half. Let's get to our favorite teaser of the week. 645 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six pointisers. 646 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:13,040 Speaker 1: Don't tease no teas for me. I know you have 647 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 1: one this week's step where you're going. 648 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Jets. Already talked about 649 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 2: them to seven and a half low total game. I 650 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 2: think they win and the Steelers higher total air but 651 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 2: Bengals can't get enough stops to really blow anybody out. 652 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,439 Speaker 2: So really interesting game there. I make it right around 653 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 2: the number with the Bengals. It's hard to see the 654 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:41,240 Speaker 2: Bengals defense getting stops. It's hard to see the Steelers 655 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 2: stopping this Burrow juggernaut, right now like this just could 656 00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,920 Speaker 2: come down to like who has the ball last? Should 657 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 2: be an entertaining game. So yeah, give me Steelers and Jets. 658 00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:03,160 Speaker 1: Under dog money line part way turning good weekends into 659 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:08,480 Speaker 1: great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. I 660 00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,320 Speaker 1: guess I'll just go first since I do like the 661 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: Steelers plus one thirty six against the Bengals. You know, 662 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 1: the Steelers haven't been playing well. The narratives are all 663 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,319 Speaker 1: against them. They failed their tests, you know, lost all 664 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,280 Speaker 1: these playoff teams. But as we saw, the Bengals are vulnerable, 665 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,920 Speaker 1: I mean against the Bronco team that you know, you 666 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,399 Speaker 1: look at the quarterback matchup, he gives the Bengals the edge. 667 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,320 Speaker 1: Bengals were at home and at spot too, and you 668 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 1: know it took a lot of fortune, a lot of 669 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:37,719 Speaker 1: fortune for them to come out victorious. They may have 670 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 1: kicking issues here. The Steelers, I think you're gonna get 671 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 1: a good effort because they're you know, they've just been 672 00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 1: they haven't been right, you know, so they want to 673 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,799 Speaker 1: get back on the right track. And you have Tom 674 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,440 Speaker 1: Win as a dog at home in a in a 675 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 1: spot where you could end a division rivals season. I 676 00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,760 Speaker 1: mean We've seen this too many times. Mike Tomlin still 677 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 1: over five hundred outright as an underdog in his career. 678 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 1: So I think the I think this is a matter 679 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:07,319 Speaker 1: of yeah, maybe who gets the ball ass. I think 680 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,440 Speaker 1: the Steelers offense is gonna be a lot better with 681 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,719 Speaker 1: George Pickens now we to get healthier. They look like 682 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,359 Speaker 1: they're given Jaywen Warren more and more of the early 683 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 1: down stuff, which I think is is good because he's 684 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 1: He's just more effective than Nag at this point. So, 685 00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,399 Speaker 1: you know, Bengals to have the better offense, Steelers still 686 00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 1: have the better defense and Bengals defenses it's an issue. Uh, 687 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be an issue. We saw it, you know, 688 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,440 Speaker 1: Bo Nicks throwing game tie and touchdowns and whatnot. And 689 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: the kicker could be an issues for the Bengals too. 690 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 1: So that's something with the Steers that we really haven't seen. 691 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:42,719 Speaker 1: So yeah, I like the Steelers for all the little 692 00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,640 Speaker 1: little things that kind of go their way, and this 693 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 1: is this is the kind of game I see the 694 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,280 Speaker 1: Steelers winning late in the year. So yeah, I like Pittsford. 695 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,920 Speaker 2: Well let's for mind, let's let's just make this correlated. Okay, 696 00:36:54,440 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 2: let's go with the Raiders on Sunday against the Charge, 697 00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 2: because if the Steelers win, the Chargers then have no 698 00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,880 Speaker 2: incentive to play their starters because they will be locked 699 00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 2: in to their seed and if they know that, they'll 700 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:19,400 Speaker 2: be playing the Ravens. Assuming the Ravens also beat the Browns, 701 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:25,240 Speaker 2: there is no reason to play anybody, and this line 702 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 2: will go down and we'll have some value of the Chargers. 703 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 2: So these two things are correlated. If the Steelers win, 704 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:37,800 Speaker 2: then we're gonna have a really good position on a 705 00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 2: Chargers excuse me, a Raiders Steelers moneyline parlay, all. 706 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 1: Right, And that's so plus one thirty six for Prick 707 00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:51,640 Speaker 1: and Raiders at plus two fifteen, So that's a plus 708 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,520 Speaker 1: six forty three parlay. So nice juicy parlway as well. 709 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 1: So yeah, like that, like that for that angle that 710 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 1: you just mentioned with the Charge just being locked in, 711 00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 1: all right? Uh so yeah, Raiders Steelers money line dog 712 00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,080 Speaker 1: parlay best of the rest the games. We have not 713 00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,440 Speaker 1: talked about in any other segment. That's gonna be a touchdown, 714 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 1: but that may be meaningful to some of you, do 715 00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 1: you know what I mean? All Right? First off, we 716 00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,920 Speaker 1: got the Bills at the Patriots. Patriots plus three at home, 717 00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,879 Speaker 1: the total is thirty eight in that one. Any thoughts 718 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:26,680 Speaker 1: on this one stuff? 719 00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,160 Speaker 2: I don't know. There's I assume the Bills are gonna 720 00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 2: rest their starters, who exactly we don't know yet, But 721 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:39,600 Speaker 2: the Patriots they're incentivized to lose. And there's like some 722 00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:45,719 Speaker 2: rumblings that they could start Joe Milton because like Drake 723 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,960 Speaker 2: May kind of got banged up a little bit, so 724 00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,640 Speaker 2: they could just say like, hey, we're going to keep 725 00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,640 Speaker 2: them out as a precaution measure. But really it's like, hey, 726 00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,800 Speaker 2: let's secure the number one. So it's a team rusting 727 00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 2: their starters locked into a seed versus team incentivized to lose. 728 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,840 Speaker 2: Who's that. I don't know who the starting quarterback is 729 00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:09,520 Speaker 2: going to be, So I nothing, absolutely nothing on this game. 730 00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,600 Speaker 1: Maybe an under if Milton starts, But yeah, I mean 731 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,359 Speaker 1: Miloni's just he runs around a lot. I remember him 732 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 1: from preseason. You're pretty decent. But I mean, why wouldn't 733 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 1: it May it's hurt whendn't you just start Bresett. That's 734 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:21,839 Speaker 1: so that's so obviously tanking if. 735 00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:23,600 Speaker 2: They might want to, like they were going to say, 736 00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,399 Speaker 2: like yeah, I mean it's obvious tanking, but they could say, 737 00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,600 Speaker 2: like kin, it makes some sense, let's like get a 738 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,560 Speaker 2: look at Milton to see if he should be the backup. 739 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,960 Speaker 2: All right, So I don't know, way too much uncertainty. 740 00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,840 Speaker 1: Keep me a far away from the game the extent 741 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,239 Speaker 1: we got the Saints at the Bucks, Bucks thirteen and 742 00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:40,919 Speaker 1: a half point favorites at I own the total forty 743 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:42,560 Speaker 1: three and a half. Bucks do need to win here. 744 00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,440 Speaker 1: Thought about this one for the six pack, but this 745 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:49,240 Speaker 1: Bucks offense is I mean, you know, the Saints defense 746 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,360 Speaker 1: can't stop the run either, so I don't love the 747 00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 1: matchup here. Any thoughts on this one. 748 00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,640 Speaker 2: I mean, the line's too high from where I projected. 749 00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,279 Speaker 2: If this was fourteen, this would have been one of 750 00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:04,120 Speaker 2: my picks. I mean, the five upgrade of the Bucks 751 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,400 Speaker 2: a ton since their first meeting. But what were the 752 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,200 Speaker 2: Bucks against Rattler in the first meeting in New ORNs? 753 00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:10,040 Speaker 2: Like minus three and a half? 754 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,239 Speaker 1: Granted, yeah, I think three and a half or four? 755 00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, they put up fifty two and they blew him 756 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:16,600 Speaker 2: out in the second half. I think they were trailing 757 00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:17,400 Speaker 2: at halftime. 758 00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:18,920 Speaker 1: Yep. Uh. 759 00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,000 Speaker 2: I think the Saints will show up like divisional game. 760 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,920 Speaker 2: You know against the rival try to ruin their season 761 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,560 Speaker 2: in this spot, historically the dog has done fairly well. 762 00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 2: This fits one of those just fits that situation, eliminated 763 00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,399 Speaker 2: team playing a team that needs to win. I also 764 00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:43,560 Speaker 2: think that there's a chance of Lave Kamara and maybe 765 00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:47,160 Speaker 2: even Derek Carr play like I could see Car playing 766 00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:50,799 Speaker 2: so like he was trying to he was like trying 767 00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,440 Speaker 2: to practice last week, but they said like they just 768 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:56,160 Speaker 2: were worried about him in the pocket. Kamara has some 769 00:40:56,280 --> 00:41:00,920 Speaker 2: incentives I think to play a Lave is saying he 770 00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:02,920 Speaker 2: wants to play if all I mean if Car, if 771 00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:05,319 Speaker 2: all three of them play. This line is way too high, 772 00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:10,080 Speaker 2: so I might end up on on the Saints here, 773 00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:15,160 Speaker 2: but uh, it's ugly if it's Rattler, and yeah, the 774 00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,880 Speaker 2: matchup isn't great, but Saints can come in. I think 775 00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:24,600 Speaker 2: the line's inflated, so it's it's uh, Saints or nothing. 776 00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,359 Speaker 2: But this year, you just say, the Bucks are way better. 777 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:27,799 Speaker 2: They need to win. Just take the Bucks and then 778 00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:28,960 Speaker 2: they'll they'll come around. 779 00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:30,480 Speaker 1: I mean the fact that they have an office that 780 00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:32,120 Speaker 1: can just go off when it needs to. I think 781 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,800 Speaker 1: that's really the you know, it's if it was just 782 00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:36,480 Speaker 1: one off. It was going to be more of okay, 783 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:40,000 Speaker 1: just they'll struggle to score. They'll they'll but like they 784 00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,239 Speaker 1: they're they're probably not going to struggle to score. So 785 00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,000 Speaker 1: it's the Saints are gonna have to put up points 786 00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,000 Speaker 1: in this one, I think, And I don't know about 787 00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:50,240 Speaker 1: that if you're not getting car olave or or comat 788 00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:53,719 Speaker 1: or even just like even like probably need all three 789 00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:58,319 Speaker 1: all right, Jags at the Colts Coats are Coats are 790 00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:02,000 Speaker 1: five point favorites home the totals forty five and a half. 791 00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:08,320 Speaker 1: You mentioned thinking about the over in this one. Colts 792 00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:12,440 Speaker 1: five point favorites could be a bit much too. I 793 00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:16,560 Speaker 1: mean with the Jaguars, they don't I mean, what do 794 00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,520 Speaker 1: they were They're they're probably playing for like the pick too, 795 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:20,959 Speaker 1: so they're probably incentivized to lose. 796 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,320 Speaker 2: So yeah, they're still trying out there, like this staff 797 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,040 Speaker 2: they don't care about that. Mac Jones is still playing hard. 798 00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,200 Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't what do you what effort 799 00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,320 Speaker 2: do you get from the Colts who's starting a quarterback 800 00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 2: like the Colts devastating loss last week? Do they just 801 00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:35,040 Speaker 2: lay an egg? 802 00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,080 Speaker 1: You think that they'll probably come out with a strong 803 00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,280 Speaker 1: effort to because you know, a week to eight because 804 00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:45,560 Speaker 1: of that game, So I would probably be in that way. 805 00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,279 Speaker 1: I probably getting a decent effort from the Colts a 806 00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,880 Speaker 1: week A week to eight. I have no idea pass 807 00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:55,560 Speaker 1: Bears at the pack Packers nine and a half point 808 00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,000 Speaker 1: favorites at home, the total forty and a half. Do 809 00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:00,720 Speaker 1: you how do you any caup this one? With Packers 810 00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:02,240 Speaker 1: kind of teetering. 811 00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:03,880 Speaker 2: On it, don't know, I don't know how they need 812 00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:05,560 Speaker 2: more news on this, like how are the Packers? Do 813 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:07,880 Speaker 2: they rest starters and then just get ready for next week? 814 00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,239 Speaker 2: Do they want to see more from the offense after 815 00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:14,280 Speaker 2: last week showing because it's out of their hands? Washington 816 00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,759 Speaker 2: is a favorite. Do you want a risk injury? You 817 00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,400 Speaker 2: might end up at the seven anyway? Do you just 818 00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,400 Speaker 2: start preparing for I mean, you could win anyway if 819 00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:25,600 Speaker 2: you just go. If you go out there with Malik, 820 00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,239 Speaker 2: run the ball on the Bears. So I project it 821 00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,840 Speaker 2: close to where this number is too much uncertainty on 822 00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:36,240 Speaker 2: top of that, so pass. 823 00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. I would think Lafloor probably plays a conservative, But 824 00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,160 Speaker 1: you're right, you can't really have confidence in the Bears 825 00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,239 Speaker 1: the way they've been looking because Malik has been one 826 00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,080 Speaker 1: of the better backups, and you're still going to have 827 00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:50,360 Speaker 1: decent players suiting up for Green Bay even if they 828 00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,919 Speaker 1: rest starters. So yeah, I'd have to see more news 829 00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:57,600 Speaker 1: to see exactly who's playing who's not. Ge men at 830 00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,560 Speaker 1: the Eagles. Eagles minus three total thirty eight and a 831 00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:03,279 Speaker 1: half are the geam. I'm gonna do it again. They 832 00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,359 Speaker 1: seem they seem pretty motivated last week. 833 00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:07,880 Speaker 2: Is Barkley gonna play like, are they gonna go for 834 00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:12,920 Speaker 2: the record? That's or they should rest them for the playoffs? 835 00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,160 Speaker 1: They should, So I think the line kind of says, ye, 836 00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,960 Speaker 1: they are going to arrest them. So, I mean it's 837 00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:22,279 Speaker 1: minus three, But I don't think there's not There hasn't 838 00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,560 Speaker 1: been confirmation as we record this that that they're gonna arrest. 839 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,840 Speaker 2: Them, like that could get them a couple scores, a 840 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,840 Speaker 2: couple extra scores, Like I don't know. I think this 841 00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:36,000 Speaker 2: line's about right. Eagles are gonna rest their starters clearly, 842 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,120 Speaker 2: and I mean aj Brown said that right after the 843 00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:44,399 Speaker 2: game last week. Giants had their great after last week? 844 00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,960 Speaker 2: What do you get from them this week? Tough game? 845 00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:50,600 Speaker 2: This is your classic tough Week eighteen game from this 846 00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:53,000 Speaker 2: is like this to me, this is Patriots and Bills, 847 00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:55,960 Speaker 2: like the team's kind of incentivized to lose last week. 848 00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:59,399 Speaker 2: They didn't show that. And then the Eagles are wresting 849 00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:01,120 Speaker 2: all their starters. Wh exactly going to the rest? Are 850 00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:03,040 Speaker 2: they resting Barkley? How are they going to handle this game? 851 00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,800 Speaker 2: I don't know, Clay Peer, stay away from me. 852 00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:08,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I would. I think they'll probably rest 853 00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,279 Speaker 1: bark because they I mean, he had other chances to 854 00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:13,160 Speaker 1: go for records and they they he rested. They got 855 00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:16,560 Speaker 1: him the two k I I my feeling is that 856 00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,400 Speaker 1: they would, they would rest them here. But yeah, you 857 00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,080 Speaker 1: don't know what you're gonna get from the Giants even 858 00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,400 Speaker 1: I mean, the Eagles is still a deeper team. So 859 00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:27,400 Speaker 1: so then we just got the Niners at the Arizona Cardinals. 860 00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,920 Speaker 1: Cardinals favored by three, the totals forty four. Brock Perty's 861 00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:34,719 Speaker 1: talking about his elbow is on fire. Uh so, who 862 00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,160 Speaker 1: knows if we get him in this one? What are 863 00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:37,719 Speaker 1: your thoughts here? 864 00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,360 Speaker 2: I don't think I would imagine party doesn't play in 865 00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,520 Speaker 2: a short week with that elbow injury, which is given 866 00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:48,880 Speaker 2: the issues before. So at three, it's it's cardinal I 867 00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,560 Speaker 2: think it's Cardinals. Are the side short week for the Niners. 868 00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,760 Speaker 2: They I mean, that was a great effort against the Lions. 869 00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,279 Speaker 2: Do they do they show up here? Do they have 870 00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:56,720 Speaker 2: a kicker? 871 00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,120 Speaker 1: Josh Jabs revenge, Josh Doabs re Josh Stobs revenge. 872 00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:05,120 Speaker 2: I think the market is like if party gets ruled out, 873 00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,200 Speaker 2: this will go up more. I think so. I think 874 00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:11,320 Speaker 2: at three it's Arizona or nothing. Arizona. I like their staff. 875 00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:13,000 Speaker 2: They show that they'll still fight at the week after 876 00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:15,400 Speaker 2: they were eliminated. I think that they'll care. Where are 877 00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:19,279 Speaker 2: the Niners at mentally not sure so Arizona are nothing 878 00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:20,440 Speaker 2: there I am. 879 00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:22,080 Speaker 1: I looking at under as well, and seems like a 880 00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,720 Speaker 1: high total of Purdy doesn't go. They played a thirteen 881 00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,640 Speaker 1: to nine game against the Rams last week, so that 882 00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:29,080 Speaker 1: is going to do it. For the best of the 883 00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:33,879 Speaker 1: rest and our Week eighteen Action Network podcast. You can 884 00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:37,840 Speaker 1: find more me every week, my guy Kerner talking fantasy 885 00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,120 Speaker 1: DFS player projections, all that good stuff on the Fantasy 886 00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:43,000 Speaker 1: Flex Pod. You can hear Stuck talking college football Bowl 887 00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:46,759 Speaker 1: season over on Big Bets on Campus. Stuck is on 888 00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,520 Speaker 1: X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybond we were 889 00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,000 Speaker 1: at those same handles on the free award winning Action 890 00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,080 Speaker 1: Network app. Until the next time, Let's get this money 891 00:46:55,560 --> 00:47:09,120 Speaker 1: let Goo Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 892 00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,360 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 893 00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,279 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 894 00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:16,120 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler