1 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday morning 2 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: edition on the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Parolt. 3 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,279 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. 4 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: Betting Pros on Twitter at Betting Pros NFL. Always being 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 1: brought to you by BETMGM and always found on YouTube 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: for video and wherever you guys get your audio podcasts. 7 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: This day, today is a good day to jump on 8 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: that bet MGM offer five dollars bet one hundred dollars 9 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: free bets from BETMGM used on promo code juice one hundred. 10 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: When you bet on a football game and in the 11 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: pro football ranks where they score a touchdown, just one touchdown, 12 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 1: any touchdown five dollars bet wins you one hundred dollars 13 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: with that promo cod juice one hundred for new customers 14 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: of BETMGMBTMGM dot com. All right, so last night baseball, 15 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:57,639 Speaker 1: that's it. I'm done, Okay, Red Sox blow it. I'm 16 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 1: taping because it doesn't matter where the Dodgers are the 17 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: Giants go, but that one unit or sort of the 18 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: half unit parlay, that two to one parlay Red Sox 19 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: lose on Chris Sales Day, of pitching when they needed it. Now, 20 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: the Blue Jays lost too to the Yankees, so Red 21 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 1: Sox are still technically in the playoffs. But if they 22 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: can't beat the Baltimore Orioles in a must win situation 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: with Chris Sale on the mound and they're up to nothing, 24 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: and then Chris Sale gives up three runs and they 25 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: lose four to two. Uh huh, it's just it's you know, 26 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: let's get ready for next year. Okay, this team is 27 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: just they're not that good. They've played over their heads. Okay, 28 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 1: they weren't supposed to be here and they're playing well, 29 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: they're just playing. How where their talent is? They just 30 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: don't right now? They need more weapons, and you know, 31 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: Hein and Bloom, the general manager's got to go back 32 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: and get some more weapons in the free agent market 33 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: and make some trades and improve the roster and get 34 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: some more weapons. The Kyle Schwarber edition was nice. He went, 35 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: he he homed yesterday. I mean, he came to play. 36 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: It's about it. Nobody else really came to play. So 37 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: tough loss for the Red Sox and a half you 38 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: unite loss for oh in one day, so small day. 39 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: So I'm not betting baseball today. You can yell at 40 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: me all you want. I'm just going to give you 41 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: two football bets coming up here today, one in college 42 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: and one in the NFL. Now, if you are in 43 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: the Discord channel, and you're probably gonna get mad at 44 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: me here because I gave you these numbers when I 45 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 1: bet them, and I told you what I was doing. 46 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: In the Discord channel, I added everyone and said, hey, 47 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 1: these numbers are moving. This is what I'm doing. Here 48 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 1: are the two bets I'm making for the NFL and 49 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: for college football this coming season, okay, or this coming 50 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: weekend rather so. The numbers have moved a little bit. 51 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 1: But I'm doing something today that I haven't done that 52 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 1: I'm not recommending. You. Guys can play this game one 53 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: of two ways, or you can just play the official 54 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: play that I'll give you. I'll explain it a second 55 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: as to what I'm doing with this, but first let's 56 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: get to the college football bet, because that's something that 57 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: I'm breaking a pretty big rule of my own. I 58 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: don't like buying points in college football. In fact, I 59 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: am adamant against it. However, this is a game in 60 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: which I think it's wise to do it. Notre Dame 61 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: is at home against Cincinnati. The number was two and 62 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: a half. Okay, I told you guys in the Discord channel, 63 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: I'm buying it to three, which I did. Okay, it 64 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: wasn't that expensive for me to do it. It was 65 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 1: minus one twenty five for me to do it. Now, 66 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: you gotta shop around. Different books have different prices with this. 67 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: But the official play, Okay, I'm gonna say the official 68 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: play is plus two and a half because that number 69 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 1: is available. Okay, you can find plus two and a half. 70 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: I bought it to three. Now. The reason why I 71 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: bought it to three is because, well it's a home 72 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: dog catching three points. But let's talk about this matchup 73 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: a little bit with Cincinnati and Notre Dame. Now, Desmond 74 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: Ritter was supposed to be a Heisman Trophy candidate. Okay, 75 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: they've played three games, they're three to zero. Ridder so 76 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: far is completing sixty five percent of his passes nine 77 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: yards average, seven touchdowns, two interceptions. He's been sacked five 78 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: times five times they've played. I mean, most of that 79 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: happened in the Indiana game. But whose defense is better, 80 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: Notre Dames or Indiana's. Indiana's an offensive team with a 81 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: sleepy underdog underappreciated defense. They were on the road in 82 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: that game, I understand it, but Cincinnati needed a fourth 83 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: quarter where they got a kick return for a touchdown, 84 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: and they needed a whole lot of help to cover 85 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 1: on the road at Indiana. We were on that number 86 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,359 Speaker 1: and I thought it was dead, and in the second 87 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 1: half we somehow got to cover Indiana, winning that game 88 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 1: by two scores, or sorry, Cincinnati win that game over 89 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: in the Indiana by two scores. When you go down 90 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 1: a little deeper here into this game, when you look 91 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: at matchup statistics, one of the things I always look at, 92 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: in particular when you're talking about road favorites in college football, 93 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: how are they at protecting the football, Because one of 94 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: the things that often happens when you're on the road 95 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: in college football is that the home team's got the juice, 96 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: they've got the environment, they got people jumping up and down. 97 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: That's why we took Maryland plus four last night for 98 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: Friday Night. That number nine was three, by the way. 99 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: So I don't know if it's a public dog or 100 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: the pros are in agreement, but I just I like 101 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 1: the four. So I like Maryland plus four. Still, but 102 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: you got that energy, right, turnovers and easy scores, that's 103 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: a big, big tool for any home team to keep 104 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 1: their crowd in the game and to pull upsets. Now, 105 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: it is funny because Notre Dame's at home and they're 106 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: dog and Cincinnati is a favorite, and it's like, I 107 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: don't know about that. Technically, you know, Notre Dame, this 108 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: wee would be an upset, I guess, but not really. 109 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: I mean I think it and the Iris win this 110 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 1: game out right, But more to this, why so, let's 111 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: talk about turnovers. Cincinnati does not protect the football right now. 112 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: It's got to be a really big concern here for 113 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: this team. They're giving the football away two point five 114 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: times per game, two point five times free. That's one 115 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty fourth in college football. Notre Dame is 116 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 1: taking the football away two point eight times per game. 117 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: That's fifth best in the country. You've got a road 118 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: favorite who turns the ball over a ton, and you've 119 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: got a home dog that takes the football away with 120 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: Kyle Hamilton being the best player on the field. I 121 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: love this kid. It's why we took Notre Dame last 122 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: week up against Wisconsin. I love this kid. I mean, 123 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: he is an absolute top ten pick, superstar player. For 124 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:32,679 Speaker 1: Notre Dame's defense, he is soberstile, he is so tough 125 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,919 Speaker 1: to stop because he can move. You throw a lazy pass, 126 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: this kid's coming over the middle, he's picking it off. 127 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: So that's one reason why Notre Dame is turning the 128 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: ball over a ton. But that is a monster stat 129 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: and a monster difference in this football game. Cincinnati turns 130 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 1: the ball over a ton. Notre Dame turns the football 131 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: over of their opponent a ton. Now, the Irish aren't 132 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: great themselves. They turned the ball over one point two 133 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: times per game, and Cincinnati's been turning the ball over 134 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: two times per per game. That's still pretty good. That's 135 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: seventeenth best in the country. Okay, but the level of competition, 136 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,840 Speaker 1: it's different in my opinion, for who the Irish have 137 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: played versus who Cincinnati has played. I'm concerned about Desmond Ritter. 138 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: I'm concerned about him throwing interceptions, and it doesn't really 139 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: matter to me who plays quarterback. It looks like Jack 140 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: CON's going to play quarterback, but they got two kids 141 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: behind him and the pain the kid who came in 142 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: for the game agains Cincinnati are against. Sorry, against Wisconsin, 143 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: he Drew Pine. He played pretty good. I mean I 144 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: thought he was really good. Actually, I mean the people, 145 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: I think Irish fans are saying, maybe that kid should start. 146 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: So if Cohen struggles or that ankle injury is significant, 147 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: you could have Drew Pine or the freshman kid whose 148 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: name is escaping me could go ahead and play for 149 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: Notre Dame. They've got quarterback options, okay, they've got running options. 150 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: This defense for Cincinnati is not what we thought it 151 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: was going to be. It's good, but it's not as good. 152 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: Nineteen points per game given up, right, they're giving up 153 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: three hundred and twenty seven yards of offense per game. 154 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: Four point three yards per play is still pretty good. Okay, 155 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,239 Speaker 1: but you can run on this team a bit more 156 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 1: than what you would expect. Three point nine yards per 157 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: rush for Cincinnati. I mean, this defense, you never could 158 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: run in these guys. Three point nine yards per rush. 159 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: That's not bad, Okay, that's kind of like, hmm, can 160 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: the Iris get their running game going? Because the Iris 161 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: have been throwing the ball a lot, they haven't been 162 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: running the ball a whole lot. They've been turning the 163 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: ball over special teams, touchdowns, things of that nature. And 164 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: I mean the Irish are completing fifty three percent of 165 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: their passes. That's top forty in the country. So Jack 166 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: Cone's been doing a pretty good job here. Eight point 167 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: two yards per pass play, that's forty second in the country. Again, 168 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: top fifty in the country. On the other side, Cincinnati 169 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: only given up four point nine yards per pass play. 170 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: But that also who have they played, right, Indiana's offense 171 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: is okay, it's overrated, and the two previous cupcakes they 172 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: played they demolished. So the numbers are a little bit 173 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:01,719 Speaker 1: skewed here. But Cincinnati is not getting after the quarterback 174 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: at all. I mean, this is a defense who used 175 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: to be ferocious getting after the quarterback. Four point two 176 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,839 Speaker 1: to three quarterback percentage right now, that is one hundred 177 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: and first in the country for Cincinnati. That's like, wait, 178 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: what getting after the quarterback is what they do? And 179 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: I this is not the same defense. They've lost their 180 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: defensive coordinator off last year's team. Cincinnati is I don't know, man, 181 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: they are a team where I'm a little concerned here 182 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: where they are eight point five penalties per game. That's 183 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteenth in the country. For Cincinnati, they're 184 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: highly penalized, they turn the football over, they haven't really 185 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 1: played anybody. They're on the road in a game that 186 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: will be their super Bowl. Okay, I get it will 187 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,199 Speaker 1: be their super Bowl. Desmond Ritter was a Heisman Trophy 188 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: candidate early in the year, but like so many of them, 189 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: like Rattler and others. I mean, and how many of 190 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: a fall how many guys have Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, 191 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 1: Desmond Ridder, I mean, how many these guys we thought 192 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: there were going to be Heisman Trophy in the conversation 193 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: or not. They're just they're done. I think Cincinnati is. 194 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: I think Ridder is done too, unless he pulls out 195 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: a five touchdown toss. Game here against Notre Dame numbers 196 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,839 Speaker 1: two and a half. I bought it to three. That's 197 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: my personal play to buy it. The official play is 198 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 1: plus two and a half Notre Dame plus two and 199 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: a half minus one ten. I don't think you need 200 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: to buy it. I recommend not buying it, but I 201 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: bought it, so that's what I did. But I'm comfortable here. 202 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: I think the Irish win the game outright. I don't 203 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: think you needed two and a half points. So I'm 204 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: excuse me. So I'm comfortable saying one unit Notre Dame 205 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: plus two and a half up again Cincinnati. Here, I'm 206 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 1: taking it Irish plus three at home home dog for 207 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: the Irish plus two and a half money line sprinkle 208 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: as well, hop on it home team. I like home dogs. Okay, 209 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 1: they've been barking really loudly so far here in the 210 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,199 Speaker 1: NFL and in college football. Maryland's a home dog Friday night. 211 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: Notre Dame's a home dog on Saturday. Irish plus two 212 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 1: and a half up against Cincinnati for one unit at 213 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 1: minus one ten. Okay, second bet of a Wednesday, and 214 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 1: it's an NFL bet. I told you guys this in 215 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: the Discord channel. The k C Chiefs are on the 216 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: road against the Philadelphia Eagles. At the time I gave 217 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: this out, it was seven. I know the number has moved, Okay. 218 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 1: I bought the half a point. I bought this down 219 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: to six and a half for Kansas City in Philadelphia. 220 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: I am well aware that the Chiefs are zero and 221 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: three against the spread. I am well aware that Patrick 222 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: Mahomes is eleven one to eleven one in his last 223 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: thirteen games against the spread. I'm well aware that the 224 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: Chiefs haven't covered in eons. Okay, but let's talk about 225 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 1: why wolf starters Philadelphia. Did you watch the game on Monday? 226 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: They looked horrible. I think Nick Sirianni is over his head, 227 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: like Joe Judge, I don't like Nick Sairiani. There are 228 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 1: so many of these baby coaches. I don't like Robert sala. 229 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 1: I think there's so many of these coaches that have 230 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: come in that you're like, how did you get this job? 231 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: Like for real, like how did you get this job? 232 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: This is incredible? Like how are you a head coach 233 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: right now? Like what are you doing? This is horrible? 234 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 1: The Jets and the Giants both look so bad. The 235 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: Eagles look so bad. They ran the entire game against 236 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: the Cowboys on Monday night. They didn't have one player 237 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 1: in motion, Like, if you're gonna run RPOs, you have 238 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,319 Speaker 1: to run motion and you have to try to run 239 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 1: the football. RPOs only work when it's a run pass option. 240 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: And the how many times did they have a Ligneman 241 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 1: downfield during the RPO running by Jalen Hurts. I mean 242 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 1: that's some on Jalen Hurts, but it's also on the offense. 243 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 1: It's also on the coaches. It's just bad play calling. 244 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 1: It's just bad game planning and scheming. A team not 245 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: ready to play for primetime. They're one and two against 246 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 1: the spread, and the only game that they covered was 247 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: that first game that shocked everybody, and everybody was like, wait, 248 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: what did Philadelphia do? How did they win that game? 249 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: In Week number one? And that kind of gave some 250 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 1: people some pause because they're like, wait, so are they good? 251 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: They beat the Falcons thirty two to six. Yeah. No, 252 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: they came back down to earth in a real, big, 253 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 1: big way. They've got, you know, a seventeen eleven loss 254 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: to the to the forty nine ers and a forty 255 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: one to twenty one loss to the Dallas Cowboys on 256 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: the road. They come back home, they've started that. They 257 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: lost their their starting left guard for this game. They've 258 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: just they have injuries all over the place. The Philadelphia 259 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: Eagles are just they're banged up here. They're banged up 260 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: in their secondary. It's just not a good spot offensive 261 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 1: line problems for them. Fletcher Cox, who who left the 262 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: game against the Cowboys due to cramping, he should be okay, 263 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 1: but I mean they've already lost Brandon Graham off this 264 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 1: defense for the season with an achilles injury. The number 265 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: is seven at the time I gave it out, we 266 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: went to six and a half. Here's why, Kansas City. 267 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: I'm not concerned as much with the Kiefs defense, although 268 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: their Chiefs defense is going to be a problem versus 269 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: other teams versus better offenses. Not too worried about Jalen Hurts. Okay, 270 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: I think the Eagles might move the ball a little 271 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 1: bit here. Casey's giving up thirty one point seven points 272 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: per game. Okay, that is second to worst in the NFL. 273 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: That's embarrassing. Okay. They're giving up four hundred and thirty 274 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: yards of offense per game, that is thirtieth in the NFL. 275 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: That's awful. They're giving up nearly half a point per play, 276 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: that is thirty first in the NFL. That is awful. 277 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: Thirty seconds in opposing yards per play last seven yards 278 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: per play in the NFL. Horrible. Okay, Philadelphia, I mean, 279 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: even with the debacle with the Cowboys had some garbage 280 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: time numbers, they're actually six point five yards per play. 281 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: That is six best in the country in the league. Brother, 282 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: So you got Kansas City on their side, thirty point 283 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: seven points per game. That's fifth best. Four hundred and 284 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: thirteen yards of offense, that's six best, four point five 285 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: to nine or point five yard points per play. That 286 00:14:57,880 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: is right there where they're giving it up, so they're 287 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: much even there yards per play six point seven. The 288 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: biggest problem, okay, for this Case Chiefs team, they can't 289 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: stop turning the ball over. It is absolutely embarrassing watching 290 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: this team right now. They're giving the ball away two 291 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 1: times per game on average. That is twenty ninth in 292 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: the NFL. Not good, not good at all. The Eagles, 293 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: on the other side, are actually not giving the football 294 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: away point seven times per game right now. That is 295 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: third best in the NFL. If the Chiefs do not 296 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: turn the ball over, they will kill the Eagles. Andy 297 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: Reid is going for his one hundredth win and as 298 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: the head coach of the Case Chiefs up against his 299 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: former team that he took to the Super Bowl in Philadelphia. 300 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: After I watched that team play against the Cowboys, I tweeted, 301 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: the Eagles are an auto fade until further notice, and 302 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 1: I'm back putting my money. Grom my mouth is here 303 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: with this. The Eagles are an auto fade until further notice. 304 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the six and a half points on 305 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: the road, all right, not seven six and a half. 306 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 1: I gotta ad mise one twenty five, Okay. I don't 307 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: mind buying points in the NFL. I think buying points 308 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: in the NFL can help a lot. I think it's 309 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: a seven point win. At least they might win by 310 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: double digits. But I'm afraid of the back door like 311 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: everybody else. It's interesting to see the number of people 312 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: who are being scared away because the Chiefs don't cover right. Remember, 313 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: and I talked to Jillian Edlow from DraftKings for the 314 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: Sharp support that is out right now, go listen to 315 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: that about Brady and Belichick and the Patriots game. We 316 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: went in depth with the Sharp report on the Patriots 317 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: game for props and different thing, different angles, and he 318 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: gives up a score prediction that's pretty wild that you're 319 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: gonna want to listen to. But he made a great point. 320 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: He was, like, you know, in the previous games leading 321 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: into that one in sixteen mark over the last seventeen 322 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: games against the spread that everyone's sighting for Kansas City, 323 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: they were fifteen and two against the spread. Fifteen and two. 324 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: They were killing everybody and they were killing the books. 325 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: So what happened it was that the market and the 326 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,199 Speaker 1: books woke up and they started to put numbers in 327 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: place where the Chiefs got back doored a ton, and 328 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: they weren't covering because the books figured it out. The 329 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 1: public was just blindly betting the Chiefs. The number kept 330 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: on climbing and climbing, and then the Chiefs stopped covering, 331 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: and now the Chiefs are losing. It's not just the 332 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: last year the Chiefs weren't covering and they went to 333 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: the super Bowl. This year the Chiefs are losing, which 334 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 1: is really shocking. They're one and two, But it is 335 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 1: something to look at in terms of okay, losing back 336 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: to back games at home, losing to a divisional rival, 337 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 1: or back to back games overrun and one on the 338 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 1: road went home. Sorry, listen to the Ravens and then 339 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: listened to the Chargers. Three straight possessions with a turnover. 340 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 1: The defense can't stop a nosebleed. I mean, it's embarrassing 341 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: what has happened here with this Chiefs team. But this 342 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 1: is the get right spot. This is the spot they 343 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: go up against Philadelphia and they put up a number. 344 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: I think Casey's gonna have a really big game offensively. 345 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: I don't think that's Eagles team. Look what happened in 346 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 1: the secondary. Look what Dak Prescott just did to the Eagles. 347 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: All right, I think this offense is gonna be humming 348 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 1: in as long as they don't turn the football over. 349 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 1: I think Casey covers this line easily. But I don't 350 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: like seven and a half. I like seven. I like 351 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: six and a half. If you want to buy it 352 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: to seven, that's fine. The official play, though, is six 353 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 1: and a half. I gave it out on the Discord 354 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: channel Chiefs one unit minus six and a half against 355 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles coming up this weekend. Seven and a 356 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 1: half I don't like, but seven or six and a 357 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: half are fine. Official play Chiefs minus six and a 358 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: half at minus one twenty five for one unit. Okay 359 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot COM's last chat. That is the way to 360 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 1: get in or underneath me. There's a link here on YouTube. 361 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 1: You can click on it and get in if plays 362 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: like this pop up like Maryland okay, the Maryland plus 363 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 1: four Iowa now is down to just minus three road 364 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: favorite here now with notre Dame plus two and a half. 365 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 1: I bought it to three. It's now two. Put it 366 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: in the discord channel, chiefs or seven. I bought it 367 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: down to six and a half. Now it's seven and 368 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,679 Speaker 1: a half. I like giving you guys these plays early 369 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 1: as to what I'm seeing in the line movement and 370 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: what I'm gonna get involved with. Remember, I'm just watching 371 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 1: this Alabama Old Miss game for the exact same reason, 372 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: watching the numbers move and where are the pro's gonna be, 373 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: and where's that number gonna finally settle, and then they'll 374 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: get involved once we got to figure out where the total, 375 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: by the way's back up to seventy nine, which is interesting, 376 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: eighty down to seventy seven and a half, back up 377 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: to seventy nine. Let's see how the thing goes. A 378 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 1: great article by the way on ESPN dot com with 379 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,159 Speaker 1: Matthew Metcalf from Circa. He's the one that put up 380 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: the number, the plus twenty. Go read that on ESPN 381 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: Chuck Ause. He explains what he thought the number is. 382 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 1: He thinks that Bama's gonna kill Ole Miss. That's why 383 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: he put the number at twenty. He thought he'd see 384 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: Alabama money and he saw the opposite. The pros came 385 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 1: in and hammered ole Miss. So who's gonna be right? 386 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 1: Is Matthew metcalf right with circa that this should be 387 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 1: able to blow out for Bama or the pro's right 388 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: by taking the twenty twenty to twenty in the nine, the eighteen, 389 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 1: the seventeen to sixteen, all the way down to fourteen 390 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: and a half for Alabama and ole Miss. That game 391 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 1: is fascinating. I mean, I'm a numbers geek when it 392 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 1: comes to line movement in that game, I love i Miss. 393 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: I am all in and watching the line and watching 394 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,479 Speaker 1: where it's going the money and who's doing what, and 395 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 1: watching the book move the number around is very very cool. 396 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 1: It's very cool. So we're still watching that. But that's 397 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: why the discorre channel exists because I can give you 398 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: guys information, I can put it out and I can 399 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: tell you what I'm thinking about quick and early when 400 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: it comes to these games. So, okay, two plays full 401 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 1: unit bets here today on a Wednesday, Notre Dame plus 402 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,399 Speaker 1: two and a half, one unit KC minus six and 403 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 1: a half, one unit minus one ten on the Notre 404 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: Dame play minus one twenty five on the case Chiefs 405 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: play for minus six and a half for them against 406 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles on the road in week number four 407 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 1: of the NFL Minus Matt Perraltz follow me on Twitter 408 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: at sports doc Matt. Each and every morning, it's the Delejuice 409 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: Podcast right here on bettingpros dot Com, always being brought 410 00:20:58,119 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: to you by BETEMGM