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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action.

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Speaker 1: All right. Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing you so spec I'm sitting it to cash to time.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to

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Speaker 1: pass and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and I'm joined as always on every single

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Speaker 2: show that I show up to Brandon Anderson. For this

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Speaker 2: week's Best Bets episode. Can't wait to dive through it.

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Speaker 2: We are in a damn home stretch. But before we

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Speaker 2: get into the bets, it's time to toss the pigskin

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Speaker 2: back and forth with some topics, some trends, just some

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Speaker 2: stuff happened in the NFL, and we're gonna throw some

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Speaker 2: bets and as we go through to each topic, but

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Speaker 2: I want to start here, and I'm the guy that

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Speaker 2: put this at the top because I just wanted to

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Speaker 2: lay the stat out and then give Brandon a chance

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Speaker 2: to maybe have a thought or two here. But it's

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Speaker 2: really a lack of home field advantage currently in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: and I think We've been talking about this for a

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Speaker 2: few years now, but this stat kind of just brings

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Speaker 2: it to the table. So the home road split in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four through thirteen weeks is exactly even. Ninety

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Speaker 2: five wins for the home team, ninety five wins for

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Speaker 2: the road team. The second worst year right now for

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Speaker 2: home teams on the money line in terms of profit

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Speaker 2: in our bet Labs database, which goes back to two

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Speaker 2: thousand and five when we talk about weeks. So road

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Speaker 2: teams though sixteen games above five hundred ats and road

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Speaker 2: favorites started out the year absurd, but still having the

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Speaker 2: best season since two thousand and eight. And I'll give

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Speaker 2: you one more before I give Brandon's opinion here. So

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Speaker 2: these road favorites are actually also seventy eight percent on

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Speaker 2: a six point teaser this year through thirteen weeks. They

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Speaker 2: were seventy two percent last year, sixty seven percent year before,

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Speaker 2: sixty nine percent the year before that, and seventy one

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Speaker 2: percent and twenty twenty for some perspective, So Brandon just

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Speaker 2: an overall blanket statement. Should we just be ignoring home

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Speaker 2: teams in terms of the points spread back and forth?

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Speaker 2: Is there certain teams maybe you think like rise above

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Speaker 2: the rest, toss it tea.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's situational here. I think definitely we

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Speaker 1: have to acknowledge home field is slowly dissipating. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I feel like back in the day, you we used

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Speaker 1: to think like three points for home field and kind

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Speaker 1: of start there. That's clearly gone. Ye've kind of dropped

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Speaker 1: a two and a half. I think that now if

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Speaker 1: you look a lot of the models out there has

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Speaker 1: gone down to like two even one and a half

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Speaker 1: depending on the model that you check. To me, it's

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Speaker 1: more than I'm almost thinking of. Like, Okay, usually like

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Speaker 1: one and a half is a pretty good amount, maybe

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Speaker 1: two if it's a decent team or team that knows

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Speaker 1: when good. But there's certain teams like Minnesota. I know

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Speaker 1: that that's my fan team. Minnesota's a team that you

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Speaker 1: hear players talk about is loud there. It's so loud,

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Speaker 1: and that is a really tough place to play in

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Speaker 1: the numbers. Back that up places like Kansas City or

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Speaker 1: Buffalo where you get the outdoor factor. I think that's

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Speaker 1: another one where it's like, okay, we've seen situationally that

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Speaker 1: can still be you know, Green Bay, maybe you put

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Speaker 1: that as a two to two and a half. Maybe

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Speaker 1: you treat some of the others as a one and

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Speaker 1: a half. You get Los Angeles. We make fun of

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Speaker 1: them all the time for not really having home fans.

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Speaker 1: I might only give them one. I might even give

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Speaker 1: them like a zero or minus. If it's like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's this national team coming to town, their

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Speaker 1: fans are going to be there, I might kind of

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Speaker 1: go the other way. I forget the book, but I'd

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Speaker 1: read a book a while back about what is home

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Speaker 1: field advantage really? Like we talked about like, Okay, you

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Speaker 1: get to sleep at home, you get the comfort of

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Speaker 1: the routine. The biggest study they found is that homefield

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Speaker 1: advantage was referees, not that the refs are trying to

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Speaker 1: favor the home team. The fans are allowed and are

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Speaker 1: pressuring the refs into favoring the home team and making

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Speaker 1: that extra call. You hear the emotion of the call

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Speaker 1: in the moment, and so I think that that's still

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Speaker 1: part of it. But you know, we've opened to these stadiums.

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Speaker 1: Some stadiums are not rocking so loud anymore. You're like

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Speaker 1: far away from the field and you're out getting concessions

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Speaker 1: or in your luxury box. So I think it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of all that kind of stuff. I think

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Speaker 1: last thing too. Let's see in a month, let's see

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Speaker 1: how this holds up. We got the weather, now, let's

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Speaker 1: see how the home field thing holds up. Now that

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Speaker 1: some of these home weather games come to play as always,

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Speaker 1: even though we're on off a full season, almost still

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Speaker 1: a small sample compared to decades of sample. So let's

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Speaker 1: see once we add in the weather sample and where

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Speaker 1: it goes. Good thing to keep an eye on. But

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Speaker 1: definitely home field fading, but I think not gone. You

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Speaker 1: just got to pick your spots.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not every game is Dolphins of Packers, and some

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Speaker 2: games also is, and some games are also giants at MetLife,

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Speaker 2: which we will talk about in a few minutes. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's go to our first topic here. So how many

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Speaker 2: of the current fourteen playoff spots do you think are

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Speaker 2: currently locked in? And do you have an angle in

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Speaker 2: terms of like a bet you would make currently either

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Speaker 2: to get into the field or maybe someone to bail out.

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Speaker 1: So my numbers here are a little bit lower I

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Speaker 1: think than most would say. I think most would say eleven. Here,

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Speaker 1: there's three obvious not lock spots the NFC West, that's

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Speaker 1: the division, the Seattle, Arizona Ram San fran That one's

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Speaker 1: clearly up for grabs. That spot could be more than one,

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Speaker 1: but we got one NFC South presumably Boxer Falcons, and

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Speaker 1: then that Denver spot in AFC. I think everyone kind

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Speaker 1: of agrees those three are mostly up for grabs. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna add in two more. Denver is around eighty ish

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Speaker 1: percent to make the playoffs. I think that's about right.

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Speaker 1: They've got a tough schedule coming up. They basically play

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Speaker 1: all the teams trying to get their spots. Still, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna add in to Washington. They're in a similar spot

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Speaker 1: in the NFC. They're the seven seed over there. They're

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Speaker 1: around eighty percent as well. I don't feel like there's

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Speaker 1: quite the same competition there. They're don't have quite the

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Speaker 1: difficult schedule that Denver does, but I think they're still

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Speaker 1: not quite locked yet. We saw a nice bounce back

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Speaker 1: from them, but we also have a lot of cliff

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Speaker 1: cliff talk before that last one. I don't have numbers

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Speaker 1: for this. I just can't give up on it. I'm

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Speaker 1: not locking the Texans yet. I don't care who it

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Speaker 1: is in the division the Colts. I guess this is

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Speaker 1: the only real option at this point. I'm not locking

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Speaker 1: the Texans down. They're gonna have to win their way

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Speaker 1: in and earn the spot before I give it to them.

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Speaker 1: So I think those five are still a little bit

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Speaker 1: up for grabs. What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So, I mean in terms of like make miss playoffs,

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Speaker 2: which is kind of the angle I took here. These

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Speaker 2: were some angles that I like going into this. So

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Speaker 2: we've talked about us being pro everyone else but Atlanta

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Speaker 2: in the NFC South, but I still think at plus

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Speaker 2: one eighteen, the Bucks not to make the playoffs at

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Speaker 2: plus money is pretty intriguing considering they're zero to two

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Speaker 2: against Atlanta, so they would need to find a way

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Speaker 2: to overtake them literally to win the division. And I

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Speaker 2: don't necessarily think we have a wild card team there.

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Speaker 2: So that was one angle I took. Hilariously enough, the

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Speaker 2: next one on my list, just going down was the Texans.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 2: At twelve to one. Easton did sweep Indy, so they

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Speaker 2: need They're really up an extra one and basically down

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Speaker 2: three with five to play when it comes to the Colts,

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Speaker 2: which is kind of difficult, but Miami in Houston next week,

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Speaker 2: Indy in Denver. So if you see it going one

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Speaker 2: way or the other, maybe there's an opportunity. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's a complete long shot. The other one I think

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Speaker 2: is fun is Arizona. Yes, at plus one seventy two.

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Speaker 2: I know we've kind of been on Seattle Island on

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Speaker 2: the other side, but at plus money. Looking at it

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Speaker 2: both directions, I do think it's kind of intriguing. They

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Speaker 2: have three division games left. Yes, they have the l

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Speaker 2: to Seattle, but they've beaten the Rams and Niners, so

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Speaker 2: there is potentially an angle there. And then I had

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Speaker 2: one more throwout, and I think you might talk about

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Speaker 2: this one later, but I'm just gonna give you two facts.

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Speaker 2: The Saints are thirty to one to make the playoffs

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Speaker 2: right now, but they're seventy to one to win the division.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that makes sense, So you could take

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Speaker 2: that for what you will.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I will come back to a couple of those

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Speaker 1: teams later, So I'm gonna save my bets here, but

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Speaker 1: we'll come back. We'll come back to Saints and car

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Speaker 1: Rdinals later on. I just will say this, be careful

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Speaker 1: with the make miss playoff bets. Here because for some

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Speaker 1: of these teams, their only real path to make the

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Speaker 1: playoffs is the division, So you may as well take

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Speaker 1: the juice odds in the division, like you just kind

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Speaker 1: of said with the Saints. There there are mathematically other ways,

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Speaker 1: but most of the time for some of the teams

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Speaker 1: are talking about the teams in the NFCU West. The

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Speaker 1: teams like the Saints, for example, you might have a

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Speaker 1: path to get to the wildcarea, but you're gonna really

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Speaker 1: play around in the playoff simulator to like figure out

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Speaker 1: what that path is. You probably want to get the

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Speaker 1: extra juice and get the division odds if you're gonna

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Speaker 1: play it. I've got three long shot divisions. We'll come

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Speaker 1: back to you later.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that margin between those two numbers is just kind

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Speaker 2: of people lasting, all right, next number next to topic.

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Speaker 2: So the comeback Player of the Year is a interesting

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Speaker 2: conversation now, especially after what the AP said and who

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Speaker 2: won it last year and Flag. It is just very

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Speaker 2: interesting situation. Burrow is favored at the moment, but I

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Speaker 2: feel like it's it's important for me to kind of

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Speaker 2: lay this out. So this is what the AP did

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Speaker 2: say in terms of comeback the Year. It's to honor

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Speaker 2: a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of

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Speaker 2: adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that

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Speaker 2: led him to miss playing time the previous season. So

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Speaker 2: right now, the three players that probably fit that the

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Speaker 2: most would be Burrow. He was five and five last

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Speaker 2: year in ten games. Now he's nine and thirteen straight

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Speaker 2: up over the last two seasons. But he's obviously the

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Speaker 2: favorite base off the fact he has thirty touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: five picks. Kyler is the other one. He was three

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Speaker 2: and five and eight games last year, but he's also

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Speaker 2: nine and eleven straight up in the last two seasons.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure exactly how much he's come back. The

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Speaker 2: other one's Kirk Cousins. He was four and four in

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Speaker 2: eight games last year, again ten and two last two seasons.

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Speaker 2: The question mark I have here is Sam Darnald. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the Vikings are ten and two. They in any other division,

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Speaker 2: they'd be in first place. And it's Sam Darnold coming

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Speaker 2: back from injuries and being Sam Darnald and not being

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Speaker 2: in the spot to do it. So understand it's not

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Speaker 2: like what the definition of the award is, but I

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Speaker 2: do think no one kind of fits it right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's weird. Sam Darnold is really coming back from

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Speaker 1: being a jet, right, Like that's what he's coming back from,

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Speaker 1: which is really its own sort of injury. I think

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Speaker 1: to Russell Wilson a lot of years would be really

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Speaker 1: interesting here, just coming back from being written off, basically

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Speaker 1: coming back from us, from us that buried him, and

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Speaker 1: now leading this offense into the playoffs. Obviously Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: was supposed to be in this mix. That was my

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Speaker 1: play before the season. Whatever he came back from, he

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Speaker 1: needs to go back to Final Hyahuasca again and just

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Speaker 1: get out of here, go back to his Netflix. I think,

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Speaker 1: to me, the fact that we just redefine this award

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Speaker 1: and have that stipulation, I can't back Darnald, I can't

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Speaker 1: back Russell Wilson, Like this just isn't the year last

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Speaker 1: year totally, that'd be the guys that'd be playing that.

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Speaker 1: The narrative is there, The focus on injury is so

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Speaker 1: much here. The reason why I want to talk about

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Speaker 1: this is because Joe Burrow I think should win the award.

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrows playing maybe the best ball of his life.

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Speaker 1: This is a guy that made a Super Bowl run.

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Speaker 1: But here's the facts. Sixteen comeback Player of the Years

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Speaker 1: in the last sixteen, fifteen of them their team won

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Speaker 1: nine games or more and made the playoffs. They averaged

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Speaker 1: an eleven win rate over seventeen game season. Bengals ain't

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Speaker 1: doing that. They are not making the playoffs. There. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're mathematically out necessarily yet, but they're mathematically out,

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Speaker 1: like it's not happening for them. So what if they

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Speaker 1: keep losing? In fact, what if they lose the next

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Speaker 1: game or two, Burrow takes kind of a hit and

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Speaker 1: they're like, ah, shut it down, because why bother, We're

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Speaker 1: out of the race anyways, let's not risk our franchise.

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Speaker 1: I've got a Burrow plus nine hundred ticket. We talked

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Speaker 1: about this like six eight weeks ago. I've got that

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Speaker 1: for quarter unit. I think if you have a position

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Speaker 1: like that, this is a really good spot that you

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Speaker 1: probably want to add to your position. I think Kyler

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Speaker 1: nine to one is a pretty good spot here. We're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about Cardinals division later. If the Cardinals

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Speaker 1: win the division and make the playoffs, he fits the

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Speaker 1: formula pretty well. He's off the tory ACL missed half

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Speaker 1: of last year and then the guy that we haven't

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Speaker 1: mentioned that I still can't get past the reason we

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Speaker 1: changed the award rules. I think Damar Hamlin is still

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Speaker 1: one play away from literally running away with this award.

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Speaker 1: The Bills are on every channel on every game coming up,

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Speaker 1: like we're all watching them all. It takes, I think

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Speaker 1: for the Damar Hamlin story to become the story again

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Speaker 1: is like one key interception, one big punch out on

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Speaker 1: a fumble, like one play where Everland's watching and we're like,

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Speaker 1: oh my gosh, this is the guy that nearly died

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Speaker 1: on the field. He's sixteen to one to win Comeback

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Speaker 1: Player the Year. We don't really have a candidate, Like

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Speaker 1: you said, why is it that the guy that we

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Speaker 1: watched nearly die on the field two years ago barely

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Speaker 1: get on the field last year and is now the

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Speaker 1: starting safety of a team that might be the best

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Speaker 1: in the NFL right now? Why isn't he Comeback Player

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Speaker 1: of the Year. I still think that's a pretty good

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Speaker 1: position too.

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Speaker 2: I liked Hamlin thirteen to one or in that range.

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Speaker 2: And also they have no more primetime games, so like

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Speaker 2: if he was to get an interception on like Sunday

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Speaker 2: Night football, and everyone be like, oh yeah, DeMar Hamlin

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Speaker 2: and I actually kind of look at the stats and

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Speaker 2: be like, yeah, he's having a good year and remember

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Speaker 2: all that stuff. I think it makes sense. I'll bring

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Speaker 2: up one guy before we move on. What about Justin Herbert? Like,

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Speaker 2: I mean, he got hurt last year? They were five

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Speaker 2: and eight. They're eight and four. You, I mean, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna talk about this in a little bit about Chargers,

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Speaker 2: but what if would they be Kansas City this week?

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Speaker 2: I mean, right now, he's eighteen to one. He's behind

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Speaker 2: guys like Russ and Darnold, which we agree don't really

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Speaker 2: fit the mold. But Herbert got hurt. So I'll just

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Speaker 2: that's my one guy I'm interested in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think the point here is that it may

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Speaker 1: not be Burrow. That if Burrow being a sizeable favorite

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Speaker 1: on a losing team doesn't fit the usual profile. So whoever,

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Speaker 1: whatever team you like, like Cardinals, for example, they're plus

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Speaker 1: one ninety two win the division. I wrote that up

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Speaker 1: on Action NUMBERK have an article backing that. Then I

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Speaker 1: was like, wait, but if they win the division, Kyler's

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Speaker 1: nine to one for comeback, why wouldn't that be a

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Speaker 1: much better way to play it than the division at

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Speaker 1: four and a half times the price. So I think Herbert,

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Speaker 1: you could do the same thing with Anthony Richardson. Could

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Speaker 1: be a possibility if you think the Colts make a

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Speaker 1: comeback here. This is a sneaky way to play a

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Speaker 1: different angle play the quarterback of the winning team of

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Speaker 1: a team you think makes a run. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a fun comeback Player of the year bat you know.

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Speaker 2: Five more games. I mean Herbert could have twenty touchdowns

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Speaker 2: in one interception this year or something like that. So interesting. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 2: all right, let's go to one more award that you

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Speaker 2: had brought up that you had an interesting play on here.

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Speaker 2: So Defensive Rookie of the Year is an interesting category

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Speaker 2: because I don't necessarily think we have someone definite, even

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Speaker 2: though we do have someone who's odds on right now.

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Speaker 2: So what do you think there? And then I'll give

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Speaker 2: you my opinion.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think Jared Vers and Quinon Mitchell, they're

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Speaker 1: the two favorites versus the odds on favorite. They're the

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Speaker 1: guys that I think we agree probably should be the

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Speaker 1: winner here. What's interesting is the next two guys on

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Speaker 1: the list are their teammates Brandon Fisk and Cooper de

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Speaker 1: jan and those two have better counting stats as some

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Speaker 1: of the defensive flash metrics. You've talked about this before.

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Speaker 1: Fisk has more sacks than Verse Quinnon Mitchell, no interceptions,

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Speaker 1: no fumbles, no sacks. Sorry, that's what we pay attention

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Speaker 1: to when we look in at stats. Cooper de gen

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Speaker 1: has two of those three things, So I think could

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Speaker 1: we get like a split vote situation from both of

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Speaker 1: those guys. And the guy that caught my attention is

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Speaker 1: Chop Robinson from Miami, a first round pick. He's had

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Speaker 1: a sack in three of the last five games. He's

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Speaker 1: only two and a half sacks off the lead now

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Speaker 1: for rookies, not a high bar, but that matters. Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: He didn't do great. I don't think, even like Hattie's

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Speaker 1: stat that he recorded the two weeks before that, he

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Speaker 1: led the entire NFL, not rookies, the whole league in

336
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Speaker 1: pressures and pass rush win rate. He's getting after the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: And the Dolphins play the Jets twice. Aaron Rodgers ain't

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Speaker 1: looking to take ahead. He's just gonna go down if

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Speaker 1: you're by him. They play the Texans and the brown,

340
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Speaker 1: leaky offensive lines, top three sacks allowed there they played

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Speaker 1: the Niners. We don't even know if that would be

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Speaker 1: Brock Purdy or who knows. By then, I think Chop Robinson,

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Speaker 1: he's twenty to one. Again worth a nibble here. It's

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Speaker 1: not that I love Chop Robinson as much as I

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Speaker 1: just think this award is not closed yet, so on

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Speaker 1: these awards that look like I don't buy that this

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Speaker 1: is over yet, I'm looking down the board. I think

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Speaker 1: he's interesting.

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Speaker 2: I think Chop Robinson is a great buy. And there's

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Speaker 2: one other guy i'd even bring up. And you kind

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Speaker 2: of said everything I was going to go into about

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Speaker 2: Degene and and the fact that Fisk is leading the

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Speaker 2: league in sack rookies in sacks. But I still think

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Speaker 2: a guy who has the Giants, Jaguars and Titans still

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Speaker 2: on the schedule is interesting at forty to one. And

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Speaker 2: that'd be Law too from the Colts. I liked him

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Speaker 2: a little bit ago. He's still up there in the

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Speaker 2: sack category and facing those three teams, got anything could happen.

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Speaker 2: So that is my thought. And the other thing I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna take this.

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Speaker 1: Dependently from the draft too. All is a good choice

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Speaker 1: with Defensive Rookie of the Year on here that long.

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Speaker 2: And I'll take I took this from your article, but

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Speaker 2: seven to the last ten defensive rookie the years at

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Speaker 2: least seven sacks. Only three corners of won the award

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Speaker 2: this century, so I mean without Mitchell, it's interesting. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 2: all right, last one, and this is gonna be very

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Speaker 2: fun before we get into your best bets. You brought

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Speaker 2: this up, and I have a few thoughts on it.

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Speaker 2: Pick an NBA Cup winner and a Super Bowl combo,

371
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Speaker 2: a little fun parlay. Everything here is going to be

372
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Speaker 2: one hundred to one plus, but obviously only limited options

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Speaker 2: for who's left in the NBA Cup bracket. But you

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Speaker 2: can start and then i'll give you my thoughts.

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Speaker 1: So I set this up for myself. I want to

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Speaker 1: pick a regional combo winner, so I try to pick Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 1: whoever the NBA team is who we're picking. It's not

378
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,159
Speaker 1: necessarily the same city you gotta be. You gotta let

379
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 1: it live a little bit here like the Magic tie

380
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 1: with the box, kind of similar area Central Florida. You

381
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,399
Speaker 1: got the Warriors and the forty nine ers and stretch.

382
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 1: Onder these knicks bills. I know it's the opposite side

383
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Speaker 1: of the state, but look, we're not tying the next

384
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Speaker 1: to the Jets or the Giants, so that's out. And

385
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:05,160
Speaker 1: then Thunder. There's not a team in Oklahoma. Twitter tells

386
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,440
Speaker 1: me that folks and okay S root for the Chiefs,

387
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 1: so I want to catch crap for that, but Thunder

388
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 1: Chiefs is one of the possibility here too. So here's

389
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,479
Speaker 1: where I'm at. NBA Cup. We're down to eight teams.

390
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Speaker 1: Knockout tournament starts Tuesday. Listen to Matt Moore, listen to

391
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 1: the Buckets crew over on that podcast. They'll get your

392
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Speaker 1: set up for everything. I think five of those tickets

393
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,640
Speaker 1: are dead. I think it could be in Knicks Bills,

394
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,679
Speaker 1: but really both of those teams, both of the Bills

395
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Speaker 1: and the Knicks, are winning a championship at the same time.

396
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Speaker 1: I can't bet on that, Like, that's just that's make believe.

397
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Speaker 1: And Oka, see Casey, that feels like cheating. No chet

398
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Speaker 1: back for the Thunder. I know I get pat, but

399
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:45,600
Speaker 1: I don't really feeling the Chiefs right now. The Bucks,

400
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 1: the Milwaukee one, not the Tampa Bay one, have won

401
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,199
Speaker 1: seven out of eight. Jannis leads the league in scoring

402
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,400
Speaker 1: games looking pretty good again, Brook Lopez defending well. Chris

403
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 1: Middleton is back as we record this. You get Yannis,

404
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 1: I think you might have the best player in the Cup.

405
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 1: You get Jordan Love going with the Wisconsin combo. Could

406
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,199
Speaker 1: he be the best player in the NFC? Could he

407
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,479
Speaker 1: catch fire at the right time. We've seen that happen

408
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 1: this time last season. So Box Packers one four to one.

409
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 1: That's my NBA Cup super Bowl Comba. I like that.

410
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 1: I could get the Bucks win and then kind of

411
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,879
Speaker 1: be in a strong hedge position if the Packers win

412
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Speaker 1: a game or two as a wild card. Give me

413
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Speaker 1: some options if I need to hedge out later.

414
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Speaker 2: To the angle I took here was simple. I didn't

415
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Speaker 2: want anything short because I don't trust the Bills in

416
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Speaker 2: the playoffs. I certainly don't trust the Knicks. And you

417
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 2: can go on and on. OKC Casey is like probably

418
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 2: your most likely scenario where you get them both to

419
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 2: the Final eight at minimum, most likely final four in

420
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Speaker 2: that sense. But the answer to me is two long shots.

421
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 2: I liked and this is crazy Atlanta Atlanta at two

422
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 2: thousand to one or so. So Atlanta places then plays

423
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 2: it plays the Knicks, and I do think there is

424
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 2: an opportunity for tre Young to do what Trey Young

425
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,160
Speaker 2: does and the Knicks will be favored in the game.

426
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,479
Speaker 2: The Knicks should win the game. But Atlanta's been pesky

427
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Speaker 2: this year. And then you look at the other side.

428
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,439
Speaker 2: The Falcons have beating the Bucks twice already, So we

429
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Speaker 2: talked about the Bucks not making the playoffs because of

430
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 2: that fact. Well, why don't we just get Kirk Cousins

431
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 2: into the playoffs and see what happens. And then the

432
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: other one, which a little bit more likely, I would

433
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 2: say Houston. Houston is two hundred and eighty to three

434
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 2: hundred to one. So the Rockets lost to the Warriors

435
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 2: in overtime already this year, they get them again. In

436
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 2: this scenario, I mean, most likely, will steph be motivated

437
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 2: to try to win a fake ring of some sort

438
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,439
Speaker 2: just to have something on the resume and do what

439
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,640
Speaker 2: Lebron did. Maybe, but I think the Rockets are dangerous.

440
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: And then you look at the other side. I mean,

441
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 2: the Texans should get a home playoff game, so and

442
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 2: if they do get that home playoff game, on that

443
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 2: side of the bracket, they're most likely to face the

444
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 2: Chargers and Chiefs and avoid Pittsburgh Baltimore in Buffalo until

445
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: the AFC Championship, which I kind of like. Chargers can

446
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 2: go either way, and I do think the Chiefs have

447
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 2: some vulnerability and I wouldn't want to see those three

448
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,719
Speaker 2: other teams in the playoffs till that point. So three

449
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 2: hundred to one lock it in. All right, best bets time,

450
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 2: This is your best debt, Brandon. I'll set you up

451
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 2: with the fact that Aaron Rodgers did cover the first

452
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 2: half last week, but so far he's eleven eighteen and

453
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: one first half ets since the beginning of twenty twenty two,

454
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 2: and he's four and nine on the road. So Jets

455
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 2: don't start fast. But what do you got here, Jets Dolphins.

456
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am playing the first half, but I'm gonna

457
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: skip a team here. I'm just gonna play the under

458
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 1: under twenty two and a half Jets Dolphins. Look, we're

459
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: already on four late Division A, late season division unders.

460
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 1: We had three on the look ahead or three on

461
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: the hot raid, one on the look ahead. This one

462
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 1: was on my radar. This one's actually ticked up a

463
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,680
Speaker 1: little bit, forty four and a half up to forty

464
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 1: five and a half. Kind of a dead zone, not

465
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 1: a too important number there. I'm still going under here.

466
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: The Jets defense, I think is rebounded a little bet.

467
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 1: They're not what they once were, but I do think

468
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: the middle of their field is vulnerable. That's where Tua lives.

469
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 1: So I don't love the matchup, but I think that

470
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 1: they can hang a little bit. The Dolphins with two

471
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 1: on the field actually have a better defensive DVA than offensive.

472
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 1: For the season, they're league average offensively, they're almost top

473
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: ten defensively, and I don't think that that's unrelated. You

474
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 1: get a little bit better offense, you're not just like

475
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 1: punting the ball and throwing interceptions every time. Defense looks

476
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 1: a little better too. So the late season division unders.

477
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 1: We had some of those trends on our picks before

478
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 1: they fit here. So total between forty and forty seven,

479
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the under home favorite under seven

480
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: points fifty seven percent of the under. We got wind

481
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: here looks like twelve miles an hour win. The unders

482
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: the last few seasons sixty one percent to the under.

483
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: So I'm looking under here already. Why first half? First

484
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 1: half you already mentioned with the Jets they start slow.

485
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: The Dolphins have started even slower. These teams are both

486
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 1: bottom five on the season by offensive DVA, and the

487
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 1: Dolphins are worse than the Jets. The Dolphins are thirty

488
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: first on the season. And like, we got a lot

489
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:04,199
Speaker 1: of two of games in here now too, this is

490
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: not just Tyler Huntley and whatever other sanigans. Miami's defense

491
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 1: has been better first half. Also, you look at the

492
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: games first half, Jets average ten points a game, Dolphins

493
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 1: averaged under nine points a game. And you look at

494
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: just the totals so far, Jets have had twenty three

495
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: points or less in their first halfs like Jets versus

496
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 1: opponent seven games so far, Dolphins twenty four or less

497
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: ten out of twelve games already. And we only are

498
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 1: looking at just under that here, twenty two and a half.

499
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,360
Speaker 1: So I'm shorting just to the first half here where

500
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 1: teams have both started slow. I think this is one

501
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: of those where we're like, notice that one thirty Oh right,

502
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 1: I forgot this was even on a red zone. What's

503
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 1: happening over there? Because it's already halftime, it's like nine

504
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: to six of the half or something. So Jets Dolphins

505
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 1: first half under twenty two and a half.

506
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 2: And uh, I don't know if you mentioned this. Maybe

507
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 2: no Sauce Gardner, which could be a good thing or

508
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 2: a bad thing, depending on how I didn't mention at

509
00:23:59,040 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: seven play.

510
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not sure which one it is at this point.

511
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: Quite frankly, the way that he's played, I don't know

512
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: if I hate that for this pick here. So yeah,

513
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 1: we don't know if he's gonna be there or not.

514
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure how to feel about that one.

515
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 2: But we'll always remember Bob Sola's Jets defense for how

516
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 2: bad they've played recently. All right, next pick here, Eagles

517
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 2: and Panthers. I'll just say this. The Eagles historically this

518
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 2: year have been a terrible first quarter team, but nine

519
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: and three third quarter ats, eight and four fourth quarter ats,

520
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 2: they've been a good second half team. Is that what

521
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 2: you're going with?

522
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 1: I am going to play the Eagles second half against

523
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Look, we've been fading Panthers first halves a lot,

524
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: but I lost that one last week we lost when

525
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 1: we played the Saints. There, the Eagles first quarter are

526
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: so bad, I can't do the first half thing with them.

527
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: The full game line is thirteen points. I honestly think

528
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 1: they'll probably cover that, but just give me the second

529
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: half Eagles minus five and a half. Lots of talk

530
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 1: about Bryce Young, He's looked pretty good the last few weeks.

531
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: Are we sure that that's Bryce Young? And not just

532
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: the Chiefs defense and the Bucks defense, which we're gonna

533
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,239
Speaker 1: get to a little bit, has not been great. What

534
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 1: hasn't improved, for sure is the Panthers defense. They are

535
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: still bombing of the league pretty much every metric, bottom

536
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: five at something or other. Eagles last six games, number

537
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: one run defense, number one pass defense, number one run offense,

538
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: number seven pass offense. But if you look, we're not

539
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: gonna get MVP today. I think a J. Brown three

540
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 1: of MVP of the Eagles. The Eagles with him on

541
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 1: the field are the number four passing offense on the season.

542
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: They only down a little bit when he's missed some games.

543
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 1: So he's there, He's gonna play it well. I think

544
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 1: the Eagles will run all over this run defense. Saquon

545
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 1: Barkley's rushing line, I don't know, did you look this up?

546
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 1: You know, if you had a guess, what do you

547
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 1: think is rushing yards total is for this week? Right now?

548
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: I know it. So I'm just gonna. I think last

549
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: time I looked though one hundred and twenty range.

550
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: Yeah it was. It opened like one to thirteen, one

551
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: fourteen and has just been betting up, so I think

552
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 1: it is good. It's a ridiculous line. I can't play

553
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: that angle. I wouldn't mind you bet the Kenny Gainwell

554
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: angle if that pops later on. I just think they

555
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: could run all over this team, especially in the second half.

556
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 1: If you look at AJ Brown splits much more first

557
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: half than second half. They just kind of hand the

558
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: ball off and run through teams. So Eagles first half

559
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: offense number eighteen in the league, second half offense number two.

560
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: They're nine to three against the spread. In the second half,

561
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: Panthers are four and eight. So Eagles minus five and

562
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: a half. We ducked below the six and the seven

563
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 1: key number. In the second half, we ducked below the thirteen. Overall,

564
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: I think most of those probably hit anyway, But just

565
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 1: give me the Eagles second half and let's keep it

566
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: easy there.

567
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. Could you imagine if Jalen Hurts wasn't there Because

568
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley's minus two seventy to score a touchdown against

569
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: Carolina obviously Hurts has a very good chance to get

570
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: in the end zone based off their offense. But Christian

571
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 2: McCaffrey was minus three hundred plus last year on his stretch,

572
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 2: and I think Saquon would be similar. All right, let's

573
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 2: move on to the next one. Now, you're gonna tell

574
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: me that you're interested in a team, and I bet

575
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: them already as well. But they are. I'm I'm just

576
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 2: gonna give you this stat They are three and thirty

577
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: straight up on the road in Pittsburgh since nineteen ninety

578
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: in the wildcard era. That is the Cleveland Browns. What

579
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 2: are you doing here?

580
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: Look, I don't need the Browns to win. I just

581
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: need the cover. Brown plus seven. Look, where do you

582
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: bet the under? Here? Not looking great right now? The

583
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 1: under the total has gone up three points. I don't mind.

584
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 1: I still feel good about the under. This game just

585
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 1: happened a few weeks ago with twelve minutes Lefts ten

586
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 1: to six. Nothing is happening. The Browns are winning, back

587
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: and forth all the way. Like we've been watching the

588
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: Browns lately. We watched Monday Night, back and forth, back

589
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: and forth, heartbreak on the Browns plus six. Whatever line

590
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 1: you had down the stretch, the Browns are competing though

591
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 1: Jamis has this team believing they're having a fun He's

592
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 1: give them a chance, and the Browns I think have

593
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: been best in these rivalry games. Pittsburgh's defense last six

594
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: games a second to last against the run the past

595
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: has been really good. RA think Nick Chubb can find

596
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 1: some success here, especially in what looks like another windy game.

597
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: Helps her under Hopefully Browns defense has been better early

598
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: in games. Steelers are much better second half, so I

599
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: think that sets up for the Browns to hang in,

600
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 1: maybe lead early on. And really it's just too many

601
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: points here, seven full points. Five of the last nine

602
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: meetings in this rivalry we have been a one score game.

603
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: I don't really care if the Browns lose, they just

604
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: need to keep it within one score. Jamis as overfield

605
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 1: goal underdog twenty one eleven and one ats sixty six

606
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: percent AFC North Division games late in the season. You

607
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 1: want the underdog sixty three percent against the spread. I

608
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: just think too, it's a bad spot for Pittsburgh. We've

609
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: seen this with Tomlin for a long time. We bet

610
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: him in the raw ras spots, we fade him in

611
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: these big, comfy spots. They just beat Cincinnati in a

612
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: big spot as an underdog. They got next Philadelphia, the

613
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: rival in state, then Ravens and Chiefs on Christmas, so

614
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: like they've got their eyes on other games here. And

615
00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: if you look at the trend Tomlin when he is

616
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: favored by more than six after the Steelers covered as

617
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: underdogs after they got the raw raw win, or at

618
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 1: least the cover. What happens when they're big favorites three

619
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: and nine against the spread in Tomlin's career. So it's

620
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: a small sample, but we don't have a lot of

621
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 1: chances where the Steelers were a big favorite and just

622
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: came out like laid the SmackDown. This is an emotional

623
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: letdown spot. I'm just taking the plus seven and I

624
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 1: don't really care what happens if the winner the last.

625
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: Just give me the cover Browns plus seven.

626
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. Sometimes jamis giveth. Sometimes Jamis taketh last week, he

627
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 2: taketh this week, he should be giveth. So that's kind

628
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 2: of honestly, if the Steelers and this might I might

629
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: be asking for trouble here. But if the Steelers get

630
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: up early, say seven nothing whatever, I'm interested in like

631
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 2: a live SGP of like Browns to cover or win

632
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 2: and Jamis overpassing yards or something like that, because I

633
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 2: think you're going to see the exact same script of

634
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 2: he is just going to throw the ball over the place.

635
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 2: And we've seen Pittsburgh Secondary CA it's their pass rush

636
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: and Watt and all them that creates tons of turnovers.

637
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 2: But if Jamis Games gets it out of there, I

638
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 2: think there's a shot. All right, get out your notes

639
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: pad in your app, because Brandon's gonna do some division

640
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 2: futures here. Let's start off with the Saints Giants game.

641
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 2: I think we're on similar angles here since I brought

642
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: it up earlier, but talk to me.

643
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I got three games here where I'm like, Okay,

644
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: I kind of like this team in this matchup, but

645
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: you know how I am. If you give him as

646
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: a cookie, if the team wins this game and we're

647
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 1: this close to the end, isn't there some future value?

648
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna give you an angle just for this week,

649
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: and then a future's angle I like along with us.

650
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: So here's the one for Saints Saints at the Giants.

651
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: Give me the first half Saints team total over ten

652
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 1: and a half points, So I kind of like the Saints.

653
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: I don't really know how this came about, but I

654
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: looked into the numbers when the Saints have had Derek

655
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: Carr for a full game this season, that they have

656
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 1: eight games like that, They are number eight in DVA

657
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: for the season with full Derek Carr games, Top seven offensively,

658
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 1: top eight running and passing league average defensively two. Again,

659
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: defense plays better when your offense isn't just a sinkhole

660
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: given the ball away all the time. Those eight Car

661
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 1: games twenty seven points a game with him fourteen and

662
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: a half. When they didn't have him for a full

663
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: game twenty points or more. Six of those eight the

664
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: defense also allowed on the eighteen in those eight games.

665
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: So with Car for a full game, they're averaging a

666
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: win by more than nine points. Without Car for those

667
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: other four games or missing in part of the game,

668
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: they lost by almost twenty points a game on average.

669
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: So it's a huge stark difference that I think is

670
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: we're not totally counting for Fuck No Taysom Hill. That matters.

671
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: That is a real part of the offense. He's a

672
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: loss in this game. No Dexter Lawrence matters a lot more.

673
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 1: Dexter Lawrence has been awesome on the season, and the

674
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: Giants are just awful. They're the worst team in the

675
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: league right now, bottom three offense and defense. Last six weeks,

676
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: the defense has completely falling up, and now they lose

677
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: the one mainstay. They had. Their worst in the league

678
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: against deep passes. We know how that goes against the Saints.

679
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: Not very well usually. So here's dangle on the game.

680
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: Saints are way better in the first half on the season,

681
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: their top ten offense and defense, bottom ten both of

682
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 1: those in the second half. In those car games, first

683
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: half averaging almost seventeen points a game at least thirteen

684
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 1: and six of the eight there's six and two ats

685
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: seven to one, straight up with Derek Carr full game.

686
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: So I was looking at Saints first half. I was

687
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: looking at the Saints team total. Smash them together. Give

688
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: me the Saints first half team total over ten and

689
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 1: a half points, and then here's the futures angle. I

690
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: think the Saints win this game. If the Saints win,

691
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: the Falcons play in Minnesota. They're getting bigger and bigger underdogs.

692
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 1: We'll get to that game later. The Raiders, I kind

693
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: of like the Raiders in Tampa. I looked at that

694
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: one hard to drop alow of the line. We'll get

695
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: to a prop there. There's possible here. The Saints could

696
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 1: be one game back in the division if the Saints

697
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 1: win and those two teams lose. Now, look, they still

698
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 1: have a uphill climb from there. If you're betting, we're

699
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: gonna bet Saints division here, it's eighty to one at

700
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 1: one book. That's the bet. Here's the problem. We need

701
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: to help from the Raiders and the Panthers because both

702
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 1: of those teams play the Bucks and the Falcons, and

703
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: we need some help. We need those teams to lose.

704
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: I don't hate that the Raiders and Panthers are kind

705
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: of frisky. They're kind of hanging around looking decent. The

706
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: Saints will play after this game. Washington and Green Bay.

707
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 1: Those are tough, but if the numbers are right, those

708
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: are winnable games there. They're gonna be underdogs, but they

709
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: could hang. You went out, you get to nine and eight,

710
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: the last game of the season, you play the Bucks.

711
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: That's a hedge spot. That could be like a division

712
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: straight up game. Look, I don't think it's likely. I

713
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: make it like two or three percent, two or three

714
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: percent versus eighty to one means we got to bet

715
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: the eighty to one. So just a little sprinkle, the

716
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: little taste of what we're doing here, Saints first half

717
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: ten and a half over Saints Division eighty to one.

718
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it just doesn't make sense with the fact that

719
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 2: their playoff odds are so much lower, and I know

720
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 2: there's an angle there where they could get into the

721
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 2: wild card, but looking at the math, is just a

722
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,879
Speaker 2: division is such an more likely angle if they were

723
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 2: to do it. I'll also say this, without Taysom Hill,

724
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: I'm not sure how it's not an Alvin Kamara game

725
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: if the Saints do exactly what you're doing. So something

726
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 2: like plus three fifty to score two touchdowns feels natural

727
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: to me, especially with a team no Taysom Hill and

728
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: no Dexter Lawrence, so you've got both sides of the ball.

729
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 2: Things kind of leaning towards that angle, especially a cold

730
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: game in New York and what about a first half touchdown?

731
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 2: I mean at met Life has turned into AT and

732
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: T Stadium. The Giants have allowed twenty three, twenty one,

733
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 2: and fourteen in the first half of the last three

734
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: home games, so I'm not sure how that doesn't come

735
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 2: through for you all. Right back to our favorite division.

736
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: We continue to talk about this division on and on

737
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 2: and on. It is the NFC West. You've got angles here,

738
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 2: I'm listening.

739
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: Look, we have been the Hawks Podcast. We have been

740
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 1: on Seahawks Islands, Seattle Island. I still live there. I

741
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 1: got all my futures. We're gonna get into it. As

742
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: I dug more and more into this game, Seattle at Arizona,

743
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 1: I cannot escape feeling like I think Arizona is the

744
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 1: better team right now and the right side of this week.

745
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: So it's important to not be stubborn as it better.

746
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,240
Speaker 1: You've got to be able to be nimble and adjusted

747
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 1: as you go. Let me make the case for why

748
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: I think Arizona is the better team right now, and

749
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: then I'll get into the bets again. One bet for

750
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:32,720
Speaker 1: the game and a little futures escalator. On Arizona. Seattle's defense,

751
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 1: We've been talking about them number three defense now, outside

752
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 1: of that week four to six stretch period where they

753
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 1: lost a lot of their guys, the defense is legit.

754
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 1: That part has been true. What I haven't noticed until

755
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 1: recently is that the offense is even worse than I

756
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: feared that they were. Over the last six weeks of

757
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,760
Speaker 1: the season, the Seahawks are the worst offense by DVA

758
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 1: in the NFL. The worst. There's taking teams right now

759
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 1: playing nobody at quarterback that like you or I could

760
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: play quarterback and we'd improve them, and the Seahawks are worse.

761
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 1: They're the worst running team in the league. The offensive

762
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: line is terrible. Over that same six week period, the

763
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 1: Cardinals are number five in the league and DVA their

764
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: top five offense and defense. The defense, I still don't

765
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 1: really get it. I'll be honest. I don't see a

766
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 1: lot of the names there that pop. But the defense

767
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 1: has made a huge leap as the season's gone on.

768
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 1: The pass defense has taken a big leap. Small samples.

769
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: We'll see if it holds up. But by the numbers,

770
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: the Cardinals are red hot and a team that you

771
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 1: need to invest in right now. Seattle is a trend

772
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: to play here. For the most part. Seattle's won six

773
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: games in a row. I should feel good about our

774
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: Seattle position. You win this game, you basically go up

775
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 1: too in the division, and Seattle is in really good shape.

776
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: I don't feel good. I don't like the way that

777
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 1: this line's up, and I don't know that Seattle is

778
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 1: looking as good as I wanted them to be. So

779
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 1: I don't mind if you just go the futures route here,

780
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: but we like to go out bets for the weekend.

781
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: So if you want a weekend bet, I hate to

782
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 1: do it to you. We keep losing them. Cardinals first

783
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 1: quarter Cardinals full time money line. Look, we've started the

784
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: first quarter bet two weeks ago because the Cardinals are

785
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 1: the best first quarter offense and Seattle is the worse.

786
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: That trend is still true. Also, Arizona has been much

787
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 1: better defensively at home. Sales been better defensively at home

788
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 1: as well, and they're on the road here, So you

789
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 1: go Arizona first quarter full time bet, same game paraly

790
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 1: plus one eighty two. That's how you win the game here.

791
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: Now here's the future spot and it's gonna get get

792
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: your notes app because it's coming to you here. We'll

793
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 1: put them in the app too. So I'm big on Seattle.

794
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: I looked in the app. Here's where I'm at right now.

795
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 1: I have the over seven and a half. We're one

796
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: win away. Two units on that feel pretty good. One

797
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: win will count that as likely a when I've still

798
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 1: got four point seventy five units combined on Seattle to

799
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 1: make the playoffs or Seattle to win the division. We

800
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 1: got a plus two to fifteen, a plus three forty,

801
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: a plus six hundred and eight hundred. We could keep

802
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: betting it all season long. I don't know that I

803
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 1: would bet Seattle's odds right now to win the division.

804
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: I would bet those odds the ones I have. It's

805
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: a good position, as if better. Sometimes being in a

806
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 1: good position can line you up for the win. Sometimes

807
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 1: they can line you up for the right hedge, and

808
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 1: I think this is a good spot to hedge. If

809
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 1: Arizona wins here, they get the type break back Arizona

810
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: next two games, Patriots, Panthers, Seattle next two games, Packers, Vikings.

811
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 1: If Arizona gets the win here, this could flip right

812
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: back in a hurry to where Arizona is the clear

813
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: favorite again the Rams are a game back. They play

814
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,959
Speaker 1: Bills Niners next. I think this is a two team race,

815
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 1: So Arizona's plus one nine in the division FtM the

816
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: DVA side. They make the Cardinals over fifty percent, so

817
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: I think that this is a good standalone bet or

818
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: a great hedge bet, couple units maybe on the Cardinals,

819
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 1: and we talked about the other angle already, Kyler comeback

820
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: nine to one odds if they do win the division,

821
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: I think maybe like a half unit or a quarter

822
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: union on that, and then the last one too that

823
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: I think this is just a bad number. Arizona's fifty

824
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: to one right now to win the NFC. If they

825
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,359
Speaker 1: win the division, they're the three seed because the NFC

826
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: South is gonna be the four seed. You win a

827
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: home game, you play Detroit or Philly, you're gonna be

828
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: a big underdog. But if you get one upset, you're

829
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 1: in the NFC Championship, one win away from cashing a

830
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: fifty to one. I don't think I even necessarily want

831
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 1: Arizona there, but I sure want a fifty to one

832
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: ticket on the underdog. I can take the you know,

833
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 1: the favorite there, I can hedge out, I can just

834
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,240
Speaker 1: let it ride. I think if the Cardinals win this weekend,

835
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 1: you want Cardinals futures. So if we think they win,

836
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 1: which I do, this is the time to invest. So

837
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 1: just to recap Cardinals first quarter money line plus one

838
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: eighty two. That's the weekend. But Honestly, I'm gonna go

839
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: a little on now and I want the futures plus

840
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 1: one ninety on the Division Kyler nine to one for

841
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,760
Speaker 1: comeback Cardinals, fifty to one for NFC. It's my favorite

842
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 1: play on the podcast. I hate to do a Seattle Island.

843
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 1: We're just we're conjoining islands, Seattle, Cardinals Island. We're going

844
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 1: in on both of them.

845
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 2: I think it's a smart move considering their defenses. Right, Like,

846
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 2: Arizona playing Minnesota felt like they belonged in the game. Offensively,

847
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 2: defensively obviously didn't work out. They were up nineteen to

848
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 2: six and blew it, But it made me feel better

849
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 2: about an Arizona defense that I'm with you. I still

850
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: don't really fully understand because they don't get great pressure,

851
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 2: but they get sacks. Like there's lots of things that

852
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 2: don't make sense about the numbers there, but I agree.

853
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 2: I mean, we are so involved in Seattle Island that

854
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 2: having a little bit on Arizona Island kind of just

855
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: makes sense at this point, especially going into this matchup.

856
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 2: All Right, this is your last best bet before we

857
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,919
Speaker 2: get into a few long shots. So stay around here

858
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 2: Sunday Night Football. You've got the Chargers and the Chiefs.

859
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 2: Give me your angle and I'll kind of back it

860
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 2: up with something else.

861
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I already got the under here is still like

862
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 1: the under that one's moving in our direction heavily. I

863
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: think market is really a favor overrating the Chiefs. So

864
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: this is a Chargers play for me. I'm gonna take

865
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: the first half money line plus one forty eight, and

866
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: then I'll play the division as well. Chiefs are five

867
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl right now. That's

868
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:12,759
Speaker 1: about the same as the Bills and the Eagles. This

869
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 1: is just not that team right now. This is not

870
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: the way that team is last six weeks. I'm doing

871
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 1: a lot of those stats here. Chiefs last six weeks

872
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: are twenty first in the league in DVA. Their offense

873
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: is not a top ten offense. In their defense, the

874
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: defense we've been lauding all year thirtieth in the NFL

875
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 1: and DVA for six weeks now thirtieth in pass defense.

876
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: Those are the exact six weeks since they lost Geland Watson,

877
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:39,359
Speaker 1: a really important corner for them. I honestly think right

878
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: now that the Chargers are better in offense and defense

879
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: and special teams. I think they are just the better

880
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 1: team right now. Look, JK. Dobbins out matters, but I

881
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 1: think Herbert can shred this pass defense. If those metrics

882
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 1: are right, I think you can really get at them.

883
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 1: Chargers have been any more defensive team on the road.

884
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,359
Speaker 1: Top five defense on the road. Kansas City's defense actually

885
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 1: been worse at home so far, bottom ten there. And

886
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 1: then there's another thing I found Patrick Mahomes. We want

887
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 1: him chucking it deep, we want the Tyreek kill passes right,

888
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: but we're seeing checkdowns. We're seeing short stuff all game long.

889
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: Eighty six percent of his passes are short. That's the

890
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 1: second highest. If any quarterback in the league gets who

891
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 1: the number one defense and the league is against short passes,

892
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 1: it's these Chargers. They are number one. So I think

893
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 1: the defense can handle. I think the Chargers can win.

894
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 1: I think they should win. Honestly, they are the better team.

895
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if I believe it. So here's how

896
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,760
Speaker 1: I'm playing it, because it's still the Chargers, right. Chargers

897
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 1: first half top ten offense, second half bottom ten, Chargers

898
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 1: first half number two defense, fourth quarter defense number twenty seven.

899
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: We've seen this team in these games like go up

900
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 1: against Baltimore blow the game against Baltimore. We saw in

901
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 1: the first Chiefs matchup ten nothing Chargers end of the

902
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,320
Speaker 1: first quarter. They led it the half. They lost the game,

903
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: Chargers in nine to three ATS in the first half.

904
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: Give me the first half Chargers here. If you want

905
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: the plus three, I don't mind it. You get the

906
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 1: key number. A little more aggressive for me on the

907
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: money line plus one forty eight. Look the full game

908
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 1: money lines plus one eighty. Do I need my money

909
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 1: sitting out there for thirty cents extra in case the

910
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: Chargers charger again late? I do not so instead of

911
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: the full game money line, back to the futures escalator.

912
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 1: If the Chargers win, they're nine to four. They got

913
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: Bocks Broncos next. But home games for the Chargers. I

914
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: know they're not really home advantage, but at least not

915
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 1: a disadvantage. Patriots Raiders to finish, they could win out.

916
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 1: They could get to thirteen and four. Chiefs go to

917
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 1: twelve and two with the loss here at Cleveland next week.

918
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: Cleveland is live in that game against these Chiefs with

919
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 1: this pass defense, I'll probably be on Cleveland that game.

920
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 1: Then Texans Steelers at Denver. Both these teams played Denver.

921
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 1: Denver is home for the Kansas City game. That could

922
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: be a Denver playoff game too, last week of the season.

923
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: So Chargers first half money line plus one forty eight

924
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 1: and if they do get the win, Chargers sixteen to

925
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 1: one on the division. I think you want some of

926
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: these long shots. I think these are still up four

927
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 1: grabs and the Chargers are alive here, So.

928
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: We're on the exact same page on two angles, and

929
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 2: I have another angle on a third one. So Herbert

930
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 2: in the first half career fifty nine percent against the spread,

931
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 2: Herbert in the second half career thirty three percent against

932
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 2: the spread. I mean that delta is maybe one of

933
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 2: the wildest things, and it's consistent year to year. So

934
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 2: I'm completely with you with Chargers first half. But I

935
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,879
Speaker 2: think the angle you could take is Chargers first half

936
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: in Chiefs full game, which is about six to one.

937
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 2: So if you see the Chargers win that first half

938
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden the Chiefs find a

939
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: way to win, which they do every week, that ticket

940
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 2: is interesting, especially late. And then the other angle here,

941
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: I'm completely with you the sixteen to one on the

942
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: AFC West at this point, especially going into this game,

943
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 2: which could turn a few things depending on if the

944
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 2: Chargers win. What about the Chargers not to make the

945
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 2: playoffs at ten to one, Like what if you go

946
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 2: the actual opposite direction. They do face Dow, they do

947
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 2: face Tampa Bay, and then they forget about New England

948
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 2: and Vegas for a second. They're gonna face Drake May

949
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 2: and Aidan O'Connell. So there are two quarterbacks who could

950
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 2: put up some cuts. They aren't the worst of the worst,

951
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 2: So I think extremes entering a questionable matchup is a

952
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 2: good way to attack this.

953
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind the extremes, even the idea, and

954
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: that's potentially of playing both of those play the division

955
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 1: and the mess of the playoffs and just hope that

956
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: the Chargers charge are real hard either direction. I kind

957
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 1: of think that the Chargers being the Chargers, are disguising

958
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 1: us to what's actually a pretty good team with pre coaching,

959
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 1: great defense, and a great quarterback. I think we took

960
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: the jersey away and just played them. People be a

961
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,240
Speaker 1: lot more excited about that. I think that happened to me. Honestly,

962
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: I've been late coming round to them. But you know,

963
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: there are still the Chargers, so maybe it goes the

964
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 1: other way. I don't mind playing both directions. We get

965
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 1: to the long shots here.

966
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do it. What do you got.

967
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 1: Thunder sunder, lightning round? All right, we'll go quickly through these.

968
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 1: I got three of them. First one, Brock Bowers. I

969
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,439
Speaker 1: want the receptions escalator again. I looked at the Raiders here.

970
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 1: I just want Bowers. Bottom three are Tampa Bay against

971
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: tight ends by DVAA bottom five most yards allowed. They've

972
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: allowed eighty eight yards and ninety one to Cal Pitts,

973
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 1: sixty two to Dallas Goddard, Travis Kelcey. Fourteen catches, one

974
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: hundred yards. That's the one that count my attention. Brock Bowers.

975
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,760
Speaker 1: We've talked about him a lot. He's had games already

976
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 1: as a rookie of eight, nine, nine, ten, ten, and

977
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 1: thirteen receptions. He's had eight or more catches five of

978
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 1: the last eight games. He leads the league in catches

979
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 1: since the start of October, averaging eight catches per game

980
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: on eighty four yards eleven targets. Like, I don't want

981
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 1: yards here. That's the only lines available right now as

982
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: we're recording, So I don't have a line for you

983
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: he's not really popping off huge plays here. I don't

984
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:47,359
Speaker 1: think he's a Rookie of the Year because the yards

985
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 1: aren't necessarily there, the blocking is not necessarily there. I

986
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 1: think you're too late on that one. You need to

987
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: get two weeks ago and we talked about it. I

988
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,439
Speaker 1: want volume. I want the receptions. Last week is line

989
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 1: with six and a half juice to the over plus

990
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: one oh two of there, anything like that will take it.

991
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 1: I want eight receptions. That was plus one seventy five

992
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 1: last week. Ten catches around five to one. Watch the

993
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,319
Speaker 1: app we'll put in there, but that's the first one.

994
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: Brock Bauers receptions escalator.

995
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna look for Bowers and Aughton together to

996
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 2: see him. There's some sort of scenarios there because Baker

997
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 2: loves that, especially without god Win for the rest of

998
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 2: the year, he'll go to Evans, but he loves Kate

999
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,240
Speaker 2: and Bowers has been ridiculous. All right, next one?

1000
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 1: All right, how about running back a little bit of

1001
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 1: a Doug Peterson funeral. Last Caulayer, Let's go down the

1002
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:31,280
Speaker 1: mine shaft on the Jaguars. I kind of wanted Titans

1003
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: Jaguars in Tennessee minus three and a half, Like, do

1004
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 1: I really need Titans over a field goal as a favorite?

1005
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 1: With Will Levis and the way their ats mark is,

1006
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 1: I don't need it. Titans up dominated the rivalry. I

1007
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 1: do like their defense, and I want to bet against

1008
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 1: Matt Jones. Since we started last season, excluding garbage time,

1009
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 1: back Jones is a minus point one EPA per play

1010
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 1: forty first out of forty five quarterbacks. Here's the list.

1011
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 1: He's ahead of only Bryce Young, Zach Wilson, Deshaun Watson,

1012
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 1: and Bailey Zappi. That means he's behind Will Levis, behind

1013
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 1: Joshua Dobbs, behind Desmond Raider. That's the quarterback here, and

1014
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 1: the numbers have played out. Mac Jones has basically played

1015
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 1: three games with the Jaguars. Now, they scored seven and

1016
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 1: one game, they scored six and one game, and then

1017
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: last week they scored six again till the last eight

1018
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 1: minutes when they finally got two garbage time touchdowns and

1019
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 1: made it look a little closer and can of disguise

1020
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 1: this for us? Before those two drives, Mac Jones Jaguars

1021
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 1: twenty seven drives in three games, nineteen points across three games.

1022
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: So I wanted to fade Jacksonville. The problem is, so

1023
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: did the books the total dropped forty three and a

1024
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,879
Speaker 1: half do a thirty nine and a half Jags team

1025
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 1: total seventeen and a half. Eh, not really worth it.

1026
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 1: I want this worth my while. So let's take the

1027
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 1: mind shaft. Jaguars team total under under ten and a

1028
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 1: half is four to one, under seven and a half,

1029
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: nine to one. It's a ridiculous number. But they literally

1030
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: hit this bet two of the last three games, and

1031
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: we're set up to do it again last week. So

1032
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 1: Jaguar is mind shaft all the way down. This team

1033
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 1: is terrible.

1034
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go. No touchdown and getting shut out will

1035
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,959
Speaker 2: be in my portfolio probably by the time Sunday kicks off.

1036
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,280
Speaker 2: All right, last one here, and I'll give you a trivia.

1037
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,479
Speaker 2: Who is the all time leader in receiving yards per game?

1038
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 2: You're gonna answer it right now.

1039
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, You got it. I only know that because

1040
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 1: of the where we're at on the rundown, given the

1041
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, Drake London a wide receiver. One showdown to

1042
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 1: me as a Vikings fan, Kirk Cousins coming back to

1043
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 1: Minnesota like this is all this is like a Super

1044
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 1: Bowl basically sort of feel. And again I want a

1045
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: Minnesota here, but soda the books. Everyone's betting Minnesota. You

1046
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 1: got stationary Kirk bad pass blocking off a four interception

1047
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 1: game against all that Brian Flores pressure. The Falcons have

1048
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,320
Speaker 1: had higher scoring road games. They play worse on defense,

1049
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 1: better on offense, and I think this is a narrative play.

1050
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 1: I think we get Kirk throwing to Drake lundon his

1051
00:49:55,920 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 1: new shiny toy, and then justin Jefferson going didn't need anyway.

1052
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 1: I can do it just as fine without you. These

1053
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 1: teams are bottom ten against wide receiver one. Atlanta's bottom

1054
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 1: five vikings are second most Fantasy points allowed and looks

1055
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 1: like no Stefan Gilmour. I think we get a shootout

1056
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 1: here with the wide receiver ones. The lines are sew

1057
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 1: around six receptions per Guy London seventy yards, Jefferson eighty

1058
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 1: five yards. So I played around with it. Here's where

1059
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 1: I landed. Two part escalator. Both guys six yards or sorry,

1060
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: both guys six catches sixty yards, So that's a four

1061
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 1: part SGP plus two seventy. Drake London's had six and

1062
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,760
Speaker 1: sixty seven out of twelve games, Jefferson eight out of twelve.

1063
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: This should be around thirty nine percent. That'd be like

1064
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 1: a plus one fifty. So I like the plus two seventy.

1065
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 1: And then the escalator part one more catch give me

1066
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: one hundred yards. So seven catches one hundred yards each,

1067
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 1: eighteen to one. I think just a bad number that

1068
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,000
Speaker 1: we need. We need a little boost on the London yards.

1069
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 1: He's only done this twice. He's gotten close there, but

1070
00:50:57,520 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 1: just playing the number, playing the narrative, it's the Kirk

1071
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 1: Cousins showdown game. So give me the Drake Jefferson shootout here.

1072
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, mal Santa returns to the Mall of Americas. The

1073
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 2: one I really like, though, is in terms of motivation.

1074
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson's one hundred yards behind Jamar Chase for the lead,

1075
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 2: so in terms of the so maybe there's a little

1076
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:19,800
Speaker 2: bit of motivation there. All right, you have a look ahead.

1077
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 2: Can't believe it's week fifteen already, but what is it?

1078
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 1: Let's look ahead? Just give it a shot.

1079
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 2: How about next week?

1080
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: I got Mamon s got sa Yeah, we're staying on

1081
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,360
Speaker 1: the vikings. They go Monday night, give me the Monday

1082
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:40,400
Speaker 1: Night Bears Vikings under under forty two and a half.

1083
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: Love to play sides here on the look ahead, nothing

1084
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 1: really pop. This is a trends play. Mostly Bears eight

1085
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:46,759
Speaker 1: and four to the under, Vikings eight and four to

1086
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,880
Speaker 1: the under. Monday and Sunday night under since twenty nineteen,

1087
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 1: sixty one percent Monday Night Division game unders the last

1088
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 1: two decades fifty seven percent to the under late division unders.

1089
00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 1: We talked about those ones. Fifty six percent if it's

1090
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 1: a total in this rain, fifty seven percent for home

1091
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 1: favorites under a touchdown. It's just a trends play that pop.

1092
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:07,640
Speaker 1: So I looked if you see him, just played a

1093
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, total close at thirty nine and

1094
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 1: a half. So why are we at forty two and

1095
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 1: a half here, Well, I think it's because it's dropping.

1096
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 1: The look at before the season was forty six. We're

1097
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 1: slowly going down and we keep pushing there. Now that

1098
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 1: game finished thirty twenty seven in overtime. It's only the

1099
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:25,800
Speaker 1: third time in fifteen games beheeing these teams that either

1100
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: team hit thirty points. In those fifteen matchups, we're averaging

1101
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 1: under thirty nine points a game combined forty five or

1102
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 1: less in eleven out of the thirteen thirty or seventy

1103
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,320
Speaker 1: three percent there, pretty close to our forty two and

1104
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 1: a half number. Neither team, sorry, either team scored twenty

1105
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 1: points only half of the time there, So if the

1106
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:46,720
Speaker 1: Bears don't score twenty and the Vikings don't score twenty,

1107
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 1: I'll help you with the math. We can't get over

1108
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: forty two and a half if that happens, so just

1109
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 1: get ahead of the number here. Monday night, we got

1110
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 1: our last Monday Night doubleheader. We saved one for December.

1111
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 1: Bears Vikings under forty two and a half. That's it.

1112
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:00,359
Speaker 1: That's the last pick we gave them.

1113
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 2: All of you all right under an hour, Let's get

1114
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 2: out of here. That'll do it. On the Action Hour

1115
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 2: podcast for our NFL Week fourteen Best Bets episode, Do

1116
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 2: not forget to download the free award winning Action Network

1117
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:15,640
Speaker 2: Apptacy more from all of our action experts and contributors.

1118
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 2: Plus you can track your own picks. Also, make sure

1119
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 2: to check out our Action Network Discord server to chop

1120
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 2: it up with our experts. I'm in there, Sean Kerner's

1121
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 2: in there, Nick Giffin, all fellow gambers. During these games,

1122
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 2: there's a link in the description of this podcast, and

1123
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 2: don't miss our Week fourteen betting preview episode with Stucky

1124
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 2: and Raybon, which is out now and we will be

1125
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:40,760
Speaker 2: back next week, same time, same place with more best bets.

1126
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening, good luck with all your bets

1127
00:53:43,520 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 2: this weekend, and as Jill says, Bon Shumps Action Network

1128
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 2: reminds you, please gamble responsibly.

1129
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1130
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Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1131
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler