1 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: It's that time time time time lucking load. So Michael 2 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: Very Show is on the air. 3 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:24,959 Speaker 2: By looking into Mica, we gotta feed a beard. I 4 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 2: don't plan to shave, and it's you the thing, but 5 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: I just gotta see. I'm doing it all right, Will, 6 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 2: I'm making support. It's I'm beating ready, Tom, that's the true. 7 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 2: It's neither drink nor drug and noo, I'm just done 8 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:46,959 Speaker 2: all right. 9 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 3: Instagrat dead. 10 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: Suns still shining on a close my eyes. 11 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 4: It's ft times in the neighborhood. 12 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 1: The back and a political junkies tend to enjoy the 13 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: back and forth that punches, the jabs and knockouts, the wheelhouses, 14 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,279 Speaker 1: the points scored. You can read about it on Twitter. 15 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: So and so was destroyed, but not really. It's all 16 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: for sport. There are things that matter in the bigger, 17 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: grander scheme of things, and one of those was this weekend. 18 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: It doesn't make for sexy headlines, but it's extraordinarily meaningful. 19 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 1: President Trump cutting a deal that is very much in 20 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: America's favor with the European Union, one of our major 21 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: largest trading partners. So good was that deal after the 22 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: concessions that europe opions would be giving America. The American 23 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: newspaper reporters and television reporters who hate Donald Trump we 24 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: know this, asked, what's what's America giving up? This seems 25 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: a bit one sided. And the leader of the European Union, 26 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: she said that the trade relationship was imbalanced, and this 27 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,480 Speaker 1: is going to she sort of said, right, size it. 28 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: This is going to make it a more equitable trade relationship. 29 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: It will include over seven hundred billion dollars of European 30 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: investment in the United States, reduction of tariffs on American 31 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: products abroad, and it would appear, at least for now, 32 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: that Trump's economic policy is working. We will get to 33 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,679 Speaker 1: that in just a moment. But first we are back 34 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: at full strength, which is where I hope the Astros 35 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: will be short for their playoff run. We are back 36 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,959 Speaker 1: to full strength, with Chad back from Hawaii, Ramon back 37 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: from his suspension. The whole gang is in play. But 38 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: before we start with politics, a good story, a Houston story. 39 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: Pitcher Billy Wagner was inducted into the Hall of Fame, 40 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: and we start with him and his faith, giving, giving praise, 41 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: giving all honor to his Lord and Savior. 42 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 5: But one of my former setup guys, Ross Springer gave 43 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 5: me some advice. 44 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: She said, take a deep breath. 45 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 6: And remember all the times. 46 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 5: That he faced the three, four, five hitter, so that 47 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 5: I could blow away the six, seven, eight hitter. Teammates, right, 48 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 5: bullpen guys. Being up here today, I feel like my 49 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 5: baseball life has come full circle. 50 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: I was a fan before I could play, and. 51 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 5: Back when baseball wasn't so available on TV. Every Saturday 52 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 5: morning I watched Johnny Bench and so many of the 53 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 5: other greats. 54 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 1: I want to show the baseball. 55 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 5: Bunch now here I am standing among you. 56 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: It's really hard to believe. I grew up listening to. 57 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 5: Braves broadcasters Skip Carrey, as well as Pete Van Wering, 58 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 5: Don Sutton, and Joe Simpson. Along the way, the great 59 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 5: Milo Hamilton called my games as an astro. Then Chip 60 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 5: Carry called my last game as a brave. Full circle, 61 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 5: and now that am I playing days are over and 62 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 5: I'm back to being a fan. But I'm lucky enough 63 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 5: to be a fan with the inside view of this 64 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 5: great game a kid in a candy shop. This journey 65 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 5: was shaped by my love of the game, by the 66 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 5: lessons from the game, and by the love and support 67 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 5: I got from my family, teammates and coaches. 68 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be here today if it weren't for my 69 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: Lord and Savior. 70 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 5: Without you, Amen, without you, none of this would be possible. 71 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 5: And with you, nothing is impossible, not even a five 72 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 5: foot and nothing, one pound, nothing making the Hall of Fame. 73 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: God is great. He would go on to talk about 74 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 1: Lance Berkman and that Lince Berkman should be in the 75 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: Hall of Fame, which made me very, very happy. 76 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 5: He also said this in conclusion to every kid out there, 77 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 5: this is my to you. Obstacles are not a roadblock. 78 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 5: Obstacles are stepping stones. They build you and shape you, 79 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 5: refine you. I wasn't the biggest, I wasn't left handed. 80 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 5: I wasn't supposed to be here. There were only seven 81 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 5: full time relievers in the Hall of Fame. Now there 82 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 5: are eight. 83 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: Because I refuse to give up or give in. 84 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 5: I refuse to listen to the outside critics, and I 85 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:30,280 Speaker 5: never stopped working. That's what this game does for you. 86 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 5: It teaches you about life. It teaches you how to persevere. 87 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 5: Don't fear failure, embrace it because perseverance isn't just a trait, 88 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 5: it's the path to greatness. Thank you to the Hall 89 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 5: of Fame for the incredible honor. Thank you to every teammate, 90 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 5: every coach, every fan, every person who believes in me 91 00:06:55,279 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 5: along the way. I am forever grateful. This game is 92 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 5: more than numbers and metrics. It's winning the moment. It's 93 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 5: being excited for your teammates when they succeed. It's being 94 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 5: crushed when you don't come through in the clutch. It's 95 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 5: knowing that there is always tomorrow. The love of the 96 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 5: game has meaning, and it's not about salaries and rankings. 97 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 5: It's about perseverance, passion, grit, and pursuit of perfection. It's 98 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 5: about the one two, three inning play to win and 99 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 5: let God take care of the rest. Thank you and 100 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 5: God bless. 101 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: What a wonderful way to accept the honor of a 102 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: lifetime for a ballplayer is to make it about what 103 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: life lessons we can take from it and thanks to 104 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: God for his success. I think that says a lot 105 00:07:57,400 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 1: about Billy Wagner. I'm going to see if Chad can 106 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: track down the comment he made about Lance Berkman, because 107 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: I thought it was it was really, really good. We 108 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: have had a number of losses of famous people that 109 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: we didn't know lately, and so I and a number 110 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: of our friends were worried with Uncle Jerry going in 111 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: for a big surgery next week, and unfortunately it's not 112 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: all good. I'll tell you about it coming up Michael 113 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 1: Berry's show. I don't know if this year has been 114 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 1: worse than years past for people that we didn't know personally, 115 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 1: but they were part of our lives, part of the 116 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:51,959 Speaker 1: pop iconography that when you lose them, you feel like 117 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,839 Speaker 1: you've lost a friend in some way. It started on 118 00:08:56,040 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: January first with Wayne Osmond of the Osmond Family, the 119 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: famous Mormon singing group that feel like they've been around forever. 120 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 1: Peter Year. That was January first. A few days later 121 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: Peter Yarrow of Peter, Paul and Mary passed, Sam Moore 122 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: of Sam and Dave with soul Man and hold on 123 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: Him Come In and the great Stax duo. And then 124 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: there was David Lynch, the amazing director. There was Bob Yuker, 125 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: who made such an incredible career out of self deprecating humor. 126 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, he's up there with Rodney 127 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: Dangerfield for just taking a style of humor and absolutely 128 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: owning it. We lost Garth Hudson before January would turn 129 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: the calendar page, the last surviving member of the band, 130 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: the second greatest band of all time, Marianne Faithful as 131 00:09:56,320 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: Tears go by, roberta flack of Kill Me Softly, And 132 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: that was before January was even over. Then there was Jane. 133 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: Then there was a Gene Hackman and the tragic circumstances 134 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: not only behind his passing, but the manner in which 135 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 1: he passed ninety five? How did Gene Hackman? Just how 136 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: did we wake up and Gene Hackman was ninety five? 137 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: How does that happen? Michelle Trachtenberg, the Buffy, the Vampire 138 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: Slayer and Gossip Girl actress. George Foreman, our dear friend, 139 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 1: passed on March twenty first, at only seventy six. I 140 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: thought he lived to be one hundred. He was so tough, 141 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 1: so strong. Two time heavyweight champion, inventor, father, friend, pastor, 142 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: great American hero. Richard Chamberlain, the Great Actor, passed March 143 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:58,959 Speaker 1: twenty ninth. Val Kilmer April first, Boy did he ever 144 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: give some great performances? Loretta Sweet Hot Lips Hula Han 145 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: from Mash sly Stone in June. I'll confess I figured 146 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: sly Stone was probably dead already because there was a 147 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:17,559 Speaker 1: lot that happened there. Brian Wilson, the impetus behind the 148 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: Beach Boys, Jimmy Swaggert in July July was Jimmy Swagger, 149 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: Michael Madisen, Sam Haskell, Connie Francis, THEO from the Cosby Show, 150 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: Ozzy Osbourne, Chuckman, Jioni, Hulk Hogan, all just in a 151 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: row there. So my best friend, if you know, Uncle Jerry, 152 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: if you ever came to the RCC, My kids started 153 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: calling him Uncle Jerry. Everybody calls him Uncle Jerry. Jerry McGill. 154 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: If you've seen him in the last five years, you've 155 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 1: seen him in a boot because he was a professional 156 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: motocross rider in his late teens, and the pounding on 157 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 1: his foot shattered the bones in his foot. And finally, 158 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: after five years, his wife and I talked him into 159 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 1: having sir and he went and all the bones in 160 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 1: his foot were shattered. The surgery was successful, except the 161 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: way the bones were shadowed. They had to take off 162 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: his pinky toe, so we add to our sense of 163 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 1: loss those taken from us too early. Uncle Jerry's pinky toe. 164 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: This is just a little tune. Little Biggie went to 165 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 1: market about things lost far too soon, A little bigges 166 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: stay at home. So join me as we rememb about 167 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: we miss Kurt Krobang left us. 168 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 7: In nineteen ninety four, Jimmy Hendrix changed the world that 169 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 7: set fire through the score. Janice Joplin left a little 170 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 7: piece of her hard at Heaven's door. 171 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 4: Begamin with the angels now and Uncle Jerry's pinky toe. 172 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 7: Fox, I'm a piggy Rose. They no longer standing. The 173 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 7: days of music died still hurts like John Denver's landing. 174 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:10,559 Speaker 7: Selena's dreams were stolen by a fan's obsessive woes. 175 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: They're shining up. 176 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 4: In gulgry weird Uncle Jerry's pinky. 177 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 8: Toe rufully kicked the bucket a dragon in the Knights. 178 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 8: Sharon Tate so young and sweet that helter skelter fight. 179 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 8: Chris Harley went too hard, too fast, with all they 180 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 8: waiting too. 181 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 4: They're inoving down by the river with Uncle Jerry's stinky too. 182 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 4: Otis sweet, otis on the duck of the bay. Imagine 183 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 4: a world where John Lennon never went Oh Wait River Phoenix, 184 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 4: Amy Winehouse. 185 00:13:55,120 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 7: Marilyn Monroe, the answering in the cosmos. 186 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 4: Weird uncle Jerry's pinky toe. 187 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 6: In town, you were just a dove, and now you're 188 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 6: all alone. You went we we we all the way home. 189 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 9: You went we we we all the way. 190 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: Peggy went to market. This little piggy stayed home. 191 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 3: This little piggy had roast beef, This little piggy had none. 192 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 3: The last little piggy got called by God back home. 193 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 8: Goodbye Uncle Jerry's pinky toe. 194 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: You're the best toe. 195 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 10: The river was. 196 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 8: Restling piece, rested peace, resting power, Uncle Jerry's pinky toe. 197 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 8: It's a far apartment of place that you're going to. 198 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 8: If you're a light, you're a light in. 199 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 7: A dark place Uncle Jerry's pinky toe. 200 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 6: And that dark place was Uncle Jerry's sock and food. 201 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 4: Goodbye Uncle Jerry's pinky toe. Goodbye, so war saying our 202 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 4: Uncle Jerry's pigky toe till this time. 203 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 1: Goodbye, mister Michael Berry's shaken from us far too soon. 204 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: Americans are the best salesman in the world. That's really 205 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: not open for a dispute. There are companies that will 206 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: hire Americans to lead their sales team of their products 207 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: to the rest of the world, even where they're not 208 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: selling an American product or they're not selling to America. 209 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: It's common in Europe, it's common in Asia. Japanese companies 210 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: have long hired Americans to lead their sales force. Americans 211 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: are very, very good at messaging and storytelling of a 212 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: good or service. One of the best I've ever known 213 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: that it is Robert Reese. And I have said this 214 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: before and I'll say it again. Good salesmen. The two 215 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 1: folks who sell my show the most are Grant Patterson 216 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: and Robert Reese. And they're not cold callers. They're not cheesy, 217 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: laugh at your stupid joke kind of people. It's not 218 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: how salesmen are portrayed in Glengarry glen Ross, where you're 219 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: just trying to get somebody to sign a deal even 220 00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: if they don't want to do it, and then you 221 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: don't let them out of it. It's relationships. A good 222 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 1: transaction should be a win for both sides. And a 223 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: good salesman is a relationship manager. They help a person 224 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 1: achieve their goals. That's what they should do. So it's 225 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: Robert Reese's birthday, and I asked him what he wanted 226 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,719 Speaker 1: for his birthday, and he said, I'd be appreciative if 227 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: you just did what you did for me last year, 228 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: and that is mentioned the Michael Berry Show. Sponsors that 229 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: are my clients. So here we go. Hold on, there 230 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: are quite a few. Abaca's Plumbing, Ace Hardware, Texas A, 231 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: Corey Dimond In Design, CCS, Presentation Systems, Chad T. Wilson 232 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: Law Firm, Daniel Dean Land Clearing and Dredging, Dean and 233 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: Draper Insurance, Design Tech Homes, Deroche Partners, dun Fence, Elite 234 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 1: Medical Hospitals, Federal American Grill, Grengo's, Jimmy Changas, Guy Lewis 235 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: Cosmetic Dentist, Hawthorne Capitol, Heritage, Legacy Films, Houston Motorsports, Houston 236 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: Powder CODs, Christine Weaver Law Firm, Lamont Brands, Oops Steam Cleaning, 237 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: Percento Technologies, PTSD Foundation. That's not a paid sponsor. We 238 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 1: donate everything to them. But he manages that relationship, which 239 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 1: is pretty cool because obviously he doesn't get paid for it. 240 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: There's no money that transacts. But that was my passion 241 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: and he took it over as his passion. Republic Grand Ranch, 242 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: Redstone Payment Solutions, Republic Boot Company, Rick Doak Shade, Doctors, 243 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: Southern front Doors, Texas Pools, Texas State Rentals, Texas Renters, 244 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 1: The Pipe Yard, Top Tax Defenders, Trader Wheel and Frame, 245 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: US Coins and Utility Tax Remover. Happy Birthday, Robert Reese. 246 00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: So Billy Wagner's speech at the Hall of Fame, I'll 247 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: have to tell that story later because I don't have 248 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: time in this segment. But there is a story about 249 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 1: Eddie Martini and me at the Cooperstown Hall of Fame induction, 250 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,360 Speaker 1: one of the great experiences. So we have great economic 251 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 1: news of President Trump's meeting with the leader of the 252 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 1: European Union where he struck an amazing deal. And that 253 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: is really the art of the deal. That's the understanding 254 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: of negotiation. In most politicians have zero business and so 255 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: they have no sense of how negotiation works. But Donald 256 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: Trump does. He cuts deals. He's a deal maker. He 257 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 1: understands what the other person wants, what he wants, and 258 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,239 Speaker 1: how to get what he wants rather than what they 259 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 1: wants want. It's not always a win win. He wants 260 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: to win the deal, and in this case, he's winning 261 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,120 Speaker 1: the deal on behalf of Americans. And that's exactly how 262 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: I want it. But some unfortunate news and these things 263 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: just happen. More than five hundred Chevron employees and Houston 264 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: will be laid off after a merger with Hess. ABC 265 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: thirteen with the story. 266 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 9: Oil and Gas jobs cut. A federally required notice filed 267 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 9: earlier this week with the Texas Workforce Commission reveals five 268 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 9: hundred and seventy five Chevron employees will be laid off. 269 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 11: These kind of layoffs are pretty standard in the industry 270 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 11: during a consolidation phase, and right now we're in a 271 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 11: consolidation phase. 272 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 9: Energy industry veteran Bob Kavnar says in mergers like the 273 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 9: one between Chevron and Hess, there are also duplicate jobs 274 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 9: that are often eliminated. 275 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 11: HESS has a large office here that has a number 276 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 11: of employees and are laying off over thirty percent of 277 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 11: the Houston employees. 278 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: That's a pretty good cut. 279 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 9: In a statement, Chevron says, in part, we are working 280 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 9: quickly to integrate the Hess workforce and are focused on 281 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 9: maintaining safe and reliable operations throughout the transition period. These 282 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 9: are difficult decisions which we do not make lightly. But 283 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 9: experts added this could also impact companies across the industry, 284 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 9: like those drilling the oil and gas. 285 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 10: It definitely has a trickle down effect that has you know, 286 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 10: kind of a you know, a ripple effect through the through. 287 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 11: The supply of the value Chaine the service companies. The 288 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 11: biggest challenge the service companies have is that they have 289 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 11: to ride the curve also and they're generally the last 290 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 11: ones to be hired and the first ones to be 291 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 11: fired when you go into an upswing or downswing and 292 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 11: say it could impact costs. 293 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 10: But you know, when you have the supply pull dick 294 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 10: and you know and then pulledack, you know from from companies, 295 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 10: generally that kind of starts a new cycle of higher prices. 296 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 10: So that's something that I do expect. 297 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: I didn't know Bob Kaevanor was quoted in that story. 298 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 1: My wife worked with Bob Kaevanar at El Paso Energy. 299 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: It was a high time to be at El Paso 300 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: Energy in the late nineties early two thousand. She kind 301 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: of rose through the ranks of that company heading their 302 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: y two K efforts and ended up as associate General 303 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 1: council at a time that ol Passo was going and blowing. 304 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: It's a great story, actually, little BdL Paso David that 305 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 1: bought the Goliath. It was a little El Passo Energy 306 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: from El Paso, Texas that managed to buy Tenaco, which 307 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: was a legendary, legendary Houston company, and a lot of 308 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: folks from El Paso came to Houston. A lot of 309 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 1: folks from Teneco moved out and they needed to rebuild 310 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: and restructure and reload. And she was doing a lot 311 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: of legal work for the entity that was Tenneco then 312 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 1: El Paso, and they asked her to come in and 313 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: join that company. And it was heady times for us. 314 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 1: We were just kind of hitting our stride professionally. I 315 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 1: had just gotten elected to city council. She was rising 316 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 1: through the ranks of a major corporation as a lawyer. 317 00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: It was good times. It's unfortunate. It's unfortunate that you 318 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,400 Speaker 1: lose your job when you've done nothing wrong. And that's 319 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 1: the five hundred Chevron employees. They've done nothing wrong. But 320 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 1: that doesn't make it any easier. Ramon, You ever been 321 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 1: fired or laid off suspended? Yes, good lord, you've been 322 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 1: suspended a lot of time. It's kind of to the 323 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: point now it's laughable. We either need to fire you 324 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 1: or stop suspending you. Because you've been suspended too many times. 325 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: You like Terrell Owens, you know you're toxic to the work, 326 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 1: to the locker room. You're out there. What was he 327 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: doing the push up? Remember he's doing the push ups 328 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: for the media. You got to imagine if you're the 329 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 1: coach and you're trying to keep the team focused and 330 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: there's Terrell out doing push ups with his gold chains 331 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 1: hanging around his neck, and it's a team sport last 332 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: time I checked. So our hearts go out to the 333 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 1: five hundred Chevron employees who lost jobs. But our economy 334 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 1: is looking up. Things are going to be good. You're 335 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 1: going to be good. Houston's going to be good. Mit 336 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: the Michael Berry taken from us far too soon. The 337 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 1: little band from Texas, zz Top played Red Rocks Park 338 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 1: in Amphitheater in Jefferson County, Colorado, or just Red Rocks. 339 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: As it's now a week from today. I've never seen 340 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 1: zz Top in person. I will fix that. A week 341 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: from today, after our evening show, we will be attending 342 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: a zz Top concert for the first time, and I 343 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: must admit I am very very excited. Is exciting I 344 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 1: get to meet Frank Beard, drummer who I've come to 345 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 1: understand is a fan of the show along with his 346 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: son Rory and their entire family, and have apparently listened 347 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 1: for years and years, So it should be a good 348 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,719 Speaker 1: time and then I will immediately be back in Houston 349 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: after the Tuesday show. Traveling for me is very difficult 350 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 1: because I can only travel in between the shows or 351 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: after a show, and since our day is kind of 352 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: seven to seven, with just that little pocket in between, 353 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: it's hard to travel in between at least commercial Han 354 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: ramon against what I'm saying is, you know, if Eddie 355 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: Martinez would maybe splurge, it would be nice for us 356 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 1: to just roll up to the FBO, roll up on 357 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: the tarmac, hop on the plane, and then we could 358 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: get done what we need to get done and still 359 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 1: do the show and not be so stressed out. Do 360 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying? Do you agree with Moon? 361 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 1: You with me on this one? So one of many 362 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 1: newsletters I follow is out of the Wall Street Journal. 363 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 1: They actually send out quite a few, and it's about 364 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 1: the stock market, and it begins a big week, started 365 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,760 Speaker 1: out with upbeat news a US EU trade deal ahead 366 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,439 Speaker 1: of Friday's deadline. Still to comer quarterly reports from about 367 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: one third of the companies in the s and P. 368 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: Five hundred, including four of the Magnificent Seven. Those four 369 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 1: of the Magnificent seven that are due will be Apple, Amazon, Meta, 370 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: which of course is Facebook, and Microsoft Microsoft, and they 371 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: are set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday and Thursday. 372 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 1: That should be interesting. But the article was about the 373 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 1: seventies and economic news in the seventies, and those of 374 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 1: you who were investors at the time will remember these days. 375 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 1: He writes, gas lines, Watergate, and ugg Disco. The indignities 376 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 1: of the seventies even extended to the stock market. Returns 377 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,680 Speaker 1: were sapped by the longest and worst stretch of inflation 378 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: in all of American history. Let me read that again. 379 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 1: Returns were sapped by the longest and worst stretch of 380 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: inflation in America in history. It was the Carter administration 381 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 1: that gave us the Reagan administration. The decades saw one 382 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: of the classic contrarian magazine covers of all time, Business Weeks, 383 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 1: the Death of Equities in nineteen seventy nine. And you, 384 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 1: of course know equities is the stock market. The good news, 385 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 1: sort of is that the seventies weren't as bad as 386 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 1: our memories would have us believe the bad news high 387 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 1: stock valuations and the possible erosion of federal reserve independence 388 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: could be setting markets up for similarly lousy times. This 389 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 1: fellow is famously a contrarian, so he's wrong more often 390 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 1: than he's right. I'm giving you the historical information, not 391 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 1: his perspective, as I don't think he's right. Middle aged 392 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,959 Speaker 1: or older US investors have endured worse real returns than 393 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: the seventies without anyone saying the stock market was dead. 394 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,680 Speaker 1: Although the ten years beginning in bubbly two thousand didn't 395 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 1: see rapid rises in consumer prices, they still ended with 396 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 1: a whimper thousand dollars investment in the S and P 397 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 1: five hundred at the start of the decade, so at 398 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 1: two thousand would have been worth only seven thousand and 399 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 1: eighty one doctors by the dollars by the end of 400 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:14,240 Speaker 1: two thousand and nine, after including dividends and inflation, so 401 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 1: you would only be left with seventy percent of the 402 00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:18,639 Speaker 1: money you'd put in the stock market to begin with 403 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: in the two thousands. Compare that with nineteen seventy three, 404 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: when inflation was about to kick into high gear and 405 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,399 Speaker 1: the air came out of the nifty to fifty stock bubble. 406 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 1: The real or inflation adjusted ending value of ten thousand 407 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 1: by the end of eighty two a not as bad 408 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,920 Speaker 1: eighty three hundred and twenty seven. It's kind of funny 409 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 1: because if you are younger than me but old enough 410 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 1: that you've been spending the last five or ten years 411 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: or more up to say fifteen, and every paycheck you 412 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 1: put money into your retirement account, you've seen that money grow, 413 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: and just as with real estate, I find it fascinating 414 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 1: that people think that if you just put money in 415 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 1: the stock market, it'll continue to grow. It's like a 416 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 1: savings account. There'll be more in there tomorrow than there 417 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 1: is today, and the more you put in, the more 418 00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: you make. And it doesn't work that way. It's a 419 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 1: legalized gamble. I have said this forever. It is legalized gambling, 420 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 1: and I mean that, and it's important that people understand that. 421 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: That's why you should diversify and not put everything into 422 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 1: the stock market. The idea that because the stock market 423 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: has been up on a sustained level for fifteen years 424 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 1: or more, everything posts two thousand and eight has come 425 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 1: up mostly roses. Depending on what you were invested in. 426 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 1: If you were in mutual funds are diversified, then that's 427 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 1: certainly the case and the idea of being well, we'll 428 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,200 Speaker 1: just continue to do that and it'll continue to grow. 429 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 1: That's like flipping a coin forty nine times and it 430 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: coming up heads and thinking on the fiftieth that it's 431 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: got to come up heads because it's been heads forty 432 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 1: nine times before that. Consumer prices rose quickly during the seventies, 433 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: and there were three receipts between seventy three and eighty two, 434 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 1: but stock valuations were less frothy. The S and P 435 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 1: five hundreds cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio was eighteen 436 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 1: times in nineteen seventy three. That more reliable price to 437 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 1: earnings ratio measure encompasses ten years, so it reflects at 438 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 1: least one complete business cycle. By the peak of the 439 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 1: tech bubble, the adjusted price to earnings ratio was at 440 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 1: an all time high at forty four times, and the 441 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 1: S and P five hundreds dividend yield was near an 442 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: all time low around one point two percent, because the 443 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 1: dot com companies didn't need to throw off dividends. For 444 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: those of you who remember those days, it was interesting 445 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,480 Speaker 1: time because everybody was getting into dot com because you 446 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 1: couldn't lose, and there were twenty seven year old college 447 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,560 Speaker 1: dropouts hanging out in coffee shops who had the name 448 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: rent dot com or bubble dot com or car dot 449 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 1: com or shoe dot com, and all of us sudden 450 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 1: their companies were worth billions of dollars, and nobody could 451 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 1: understand how this was happening, But there there was a snapback. 452 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: More surprising, stocks also did better during the Great Depression 453 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: than during the oughts. They were very expensive at the 454 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 1: twenty nine peak, but not as much as during the 455 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: tech bubble. Their real return also was boosted by deflation 456 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 1: during the thirties and dividend yields that were much higher 457 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 1: than any scene this century. A ten thousand dollars investment 458 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: at the start of nineteen twenty nine actually grew a 459 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 1: little to three hundred and twenty three and inflation adjusted 460 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 1: dollars ten years later. While inflation may stay tamed today 461 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: in the face of tariffs and fed uncertainty, valuation is 462 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 1: a cost for concern. The cyclically adjusted price to earnings 463 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 1: ratio just topped thirty eight times, and stock's dividend yield 464 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 1: is a mere one point two percent. Does that necessarily 465 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: foretel seventies like returns, NOE investors might still be willing 466 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: to pay today's historically lofty multiple for US stocks in 467 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,000 Speaker 1: twenty thirty five, or at least something a lot higher 468 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 1: than after the supposed death of equities, and some economic 469 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: force who know like AI could help earnings grow much 470 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: faster than expected. The good news is AI is going 471 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 1: to make companies far more profitable. So, as an investor 472 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 1: or your stock portfolio, I think you're going to get 473 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 1: better returns than in the past. I also think a 474 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: lot of people are going to lose their jobs. Those 475 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 1: two are not mutually exclusive.