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Speaker 1: It's go time, as it is with the Red Sox,

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Speaker 1: as it is with a number of other teams. These

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Speaker 1: teams in particular, in my view, should be at a

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Speaker 1: point where they are spending Again. Welcome everyone to the

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Speaker 1: Monday edition of Fair Territory, and welcome as well to

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Speaker 1: the baseball off season. It's always fun, always lively, always interesting,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to start off on this Monday by

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Speaker 1: talking about my top five storylines. Now, these are not

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Speaker 1: the only five storylines we're going to discuss this offseason.

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Speaker 1: These are the stories that, in my view, will probably

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Speaker 1: attract the most attention. Could be wrong about that. There

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Speaker 1: are always things that happen in the off season that

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Speaker 1: you don't see coming. But these are five things that

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Speaker 1: a lot of fans will be thinking about talking about

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Speaker 1: as we go forward into November, December or January, February,

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Speaker 1: and however long this sucker lasts, as you might recall,

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Speaker 1: sometimes things go into March, even into April. So here

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Speaker 1: we go top five storylines. We're going to go in

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Speaker 1: reverse order. So the biggest storyline, which you guys all

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Speaker 1: probably can guess, is going to be last, all right,

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Speaker 1: number five on my top five storylines list, the Scott

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Speaker 1: Boris revenge tour. Now, he wouldn't like me calling it that, because,

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Speaker 1: of course he doesn't view his job as revenge. He've

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Speaker 1: used his job as representing the best interests of his clients.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, we all know Boris had a

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Speaker 1: challenging off season last year, a difficult offseason by his standards.

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Speaker 1: Remember the Boris fourth Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman,

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Speaker 1: Cody Bellinger. None of them got the contracts that we

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Speaker 1: really envisioned, though of course, Chapman has come out of

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Speaker 1: it just fine. He signed a new six year, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty one million dollar deal with the Giants

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Speaker 1: just recently didn't even need to go to free agency.

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Speaker 1: Cody Bellinger as well, opted in on his second year

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Speaker 1: of a three year, ninety million dollar deal. That's a

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Speaker 1: thirty million dollar guarantee. He's gonna be okay too. All

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Speaker 1: of these guys are going to be okay. But it

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Speaker 1: wasn't Boris's best off season. This offseason again reminds me

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Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen twenty when Boris coming off or for him,

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Speaker 1: was not the best off season, went absolutely nuts with

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Speaker 1: Cole Rendon Strasburg and had an amazing billion dollar off season.

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Speaker 1: Let's look at his list of free agents this coming winter,

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Speaker 1: because it's quite a group. N Soto, Corbyn Burns, Blake Snell,

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Speaker 1: Alex Bregman, Pete Alonzo, Sean and Iah Direkson, Profar, yuse Kakuchi,

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Speaker 1: and Hashan Kim. That is not a complete list, but

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Speaker 1: those are his top players. Kim, of course, coming off

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Speaker 1: the injury, he's a little bit problematic, but all of

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Speaker 1: the others, for the most part, are in great shape

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Speaker 1: as they approach free agencies. So I expect Scott Boris

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Speaker 1: to be in the headlines. I expect him to have

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Speaker 1: a monster off season and we will see where it

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Speaker 1: all goes, all right. Number four on my storylines list

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Speaker 1: a guy that maybe some casual fans have not heard of,

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Speaker 1: but he's going to get a lot of attention if

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Speaker 1: and if is a big word here. His Japanese team,

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Speaker 1: the Chiba Laatee Marines, post him forbidding by major league

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Speaker 1: clubs this offseason. His name is Roki Sasaki. He is

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Speaker 1: just twenty three years old. He is considered the best

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Speaker 1: young pitcher on the planet, certainly in Japan, and he's

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Speaker 1: a guy that, should he come, will not be a

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Speaker 1: classic unrestricted free agent. He'll be what Otani was in

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen eighteen. He will command only a certain amount

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Speaker 1: of money because he is under the age of twenty five.

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Speaker 1: If you remember Otani signed with the Angels for two

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Speaker 1: point three one five million, that was it. Remember international

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Speaker 1: bonuses or capped teams can only go so far. So

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Speaker 1: in theory, from a financial perspective, every team would have

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Speaker 1: a chance to land Sasaki. The problem is the suspicion

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Speaker 1: is among many in the industry, almost everyone in the

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Speaker 1: industry that if this guy is posted Rokie Society becomes available,

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Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Dodgers will be the heavy heavy favorites

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Speaker 1: to sign him. And can you imagine what that team

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Speaker 1: would mean in Japan? Then it already has Shohyo Tani,

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Speaker 1: Yoshinoba Yamamoto, to get Sasaki as well well, there would

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Speaker 1: be even more so Japan's team Sasaki number four on

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Speaker 1: my list, number three. This is a big one and

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Speaker 1: it affects a lot of clubs. The effect of the

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Speaker 1: media RTE's landscape on spending this off season. We saw

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Speaker 1: it had a significant impact last off season because teams

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Speaker 1: are losing their cable deals that they once had and

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Speaker 1: having to go to streaming models often run by MLB.

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Speaker 1: A lot of teams are in different situations here. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to go into great detail about each particular club.

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Speaker 1: Evan Drelik has a great story in The Athletic Today

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Speaker 1: kind of breaking down the whole thing. And what Evan

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Speaker 1: says is that at least one third of the club

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Speaker 1: so far have taken a reduction in their right now

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Speaker 1: fees and by opening day that list could grow to

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Speaker 1: about half or more than half even. And this is

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Speaker 1: important to remember. Local revenue is not the entirety of

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Speaker 1: a club's revenue. According to the Major League Baseball Players

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Speaker 1: Association the Union, as reported by Evan, local TV revenue

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Speaker 1: is generally comprised between twelve and thirty two percent of

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Speaker 1: a team's total revenue, and the average is around twenty

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Speaker 1: one percent. So if you take a hit in your

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Speaker 1: local revenue one, you can make it up elsewhere perhaps

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Speaker 1: or more to the point, you're not taking a total

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Speaker 1: hit overall. You're taking a percentage of revenues and you're

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Speaker 1: not having it anymore. Listen, there's no denying that it's

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Speaker 1: an impact but there's also no denying it. I've written

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Speaker 1: many times before, teams look for any excuse they can

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Speaker 1: not to spend money, and it's going to be really

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Speaker 1: interesting to see which teams kind of grasp that excuse

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Speaker 1: this off season. Now, some teams obviously will take a

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Speaker 1: greater hit others, and some teams will have more of

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Speaker 1: a reason not to spend. But this is obviously a huge,

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Speaker 1: huge thing that we're going to be watching this offseason

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Speaker 1: for all of the clubs that are affected or could

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Speaker 1: be affected. Number two on my list of storylines Pete Alonso.

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Speaker 1: Now Alonzo of course is of great interest to Mets

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Speaker 1: fans in particular, but his free agency is going to

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Speaker 1: be really interesting in a global perspective as well. Alonso

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Speaker 1: is a first baseman, He's a guy entering his early

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Speaker 1: to mid thirties. In recent years, the numbers we've seen

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Speaker 1: for those players are not what we've seen in the past,

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Speaker 1: in say the early twenty tens, Freddie Freeman one hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty two million, much of it deferred, Matt Olsen

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty million, Paul Goldschmidt one hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty million. You go back to Prince fielder to Joey Vado,

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Speaker 1: Albert Pouhols. Those were deals over two hundred million, and

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Speaker 1: I am sure Alonzo's agent, Scott Morris, is going to

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Speaker 1: want to take the market back to what it was.

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Speaker 1: The question is will anybody be willing to pay Alonso

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Speaker 1: along those lines. He is one of the rare power

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Speaker 1: hitters in the game. He is also a guy who

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Speaker 1: is not terribly athletic. He tries really hard at first base,

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Speaker 1: but he is limited there. He's a guy that, yes,

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Speaker 1: will definitely help any number of teams in a sport

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Speaker 1: starved for power. I just don't know that any team

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Speaker 1: is going to want to pay him more than Freddy Freeman.

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Speaker 1: We just saw what Freddie Freeman did in the World Series.

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Speaker 1: We've seen what he has done in his career. He's

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Speaker 1: a Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman. Again, his deal with

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers a couple of years ago. Now six years,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty two million. All right, Number one

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Speaker 1: in the list. You guys know what this is the

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Speaker 1: number one storyline of the offseason, without question, is Juan

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Speaker 1: Soto's free agency and kind of in a subtext here,

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Speaker 1: the effect it might have whether he stays or not

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Speaker 1: on the New York Yankees. The numbers for Soto, a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are guessing. We're all guessing right now.

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Speaker 1: We don't know exactly where this is going to go.

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Speaker 1: Will it go well beyond five hundred million, Will it

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Speaker 1: go beyond six hundred million, Will it approach or even

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Speaker 1: exceed seven hundred million. People say there's no way he

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Speaker 1: can't be paid more than Otani in total value. And

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Speaker 1: I see the argument. Otani, of course can pitch and hit,

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Speaker 1: but Soto is twenty six, and a twenty six year

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Speaker 1: old free agent in our sport is a really rare thing.

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Speaker 1: So we know the Yankees will be in, we know

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Speaker 1: the Mets likely will be in, as well other teams

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Speaker 1: I would imagine would enter the mix. I guess the

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Speaker 1: question becomes what Scott Morris's goal and what Juan Soto's

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Speaker 1: goal will be? As far as the contract is concerned,

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Speaker 1: Let's face it, he's going for the most money. He

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Speaker 1: waited all this time to be a free agent, to

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Speaker 1: make the best deal possible. That's what Sodo wants. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So this idea that well maybe he loved being a Yankee, No, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter whether he loved being a Yankee, if

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Speaker 1: the Mets pay him more, He's going to the Mets.

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Speaker 1: The question is, will he try to top Otani's average

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Speaker 1: annual value when factored in with the deferrals, which was

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Speaker 1: about forty six forty seven million. Will he try for

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Speaker 1: a fifteen million dollars average annual value? And will he

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Speaker 1: try for, along with or perhaps instead of that idea,

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Speaker 1: a total value in excess or at least approaching Otani's

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Speaker 1: seven hundred million, which of course includes six hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighty million in deferrals. I don't know how this is

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Speaker 1: going to play out. No one does, no matter what

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Speaker 1: you might be reading in the next few days. But

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Speaker 1: Juan Soto, without question, is the number one story here.

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Speaker 1: If Sodo stays, you're going to see the Yankees incorporate

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Speaker 1: younger players like Jason Domingo's. If he leaves, they could

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Speaker 1: do other things in free agency. Maybe Alex Bregman moved

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Speaker 1: Chisholm Junior to second. There are all kinds of ways

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Speaker 1: that they could go either way. We'll all be watching this,

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Speaker 1: We'll all be talking about it. We'll all be seeing

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Speaker 1: if Juan Soto jumps on a plane to throw. No,

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Speaker 1: he's not jumping on a plane. That's an I don't think.

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Speaker 1: But it's going to be the number one story, no

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Speaker 1: question about that. So there you have it. Those are

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Speaker 1: my top five storylines. Again, don't come at me. I

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Speaker 1: know there are other stories we'll be watching. We'll get

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Speaker 1: to them too. Time out for the inside dish, the

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Speaker 1: part of the show where I talk about a story

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Speaker 1: I've written, something I might be up to, some kind

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Speaker 1: of trend in the game. And on this Monday, as

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Speaker 1: I prepare to leave for the GM meetings in San

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Speaker 1: Antonio later today, I want to talk about a mystery

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Speaker 1: to most fans. What happens at the GM meetings. Now,

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Speaker 1: generally speaking, not a lot happens. Basically, the gms and

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Speaker 1: agents gather. The gms meet about different things regarding the game,

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Speaker 1: rules changes, perhaps different ideas, and of course they spend

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Speaker 1: time talking to each other about potential trades. They meet

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Speaker 1: with agents as well for free agents. They do all

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Speaker 1: of these kinds of things, And you might ask, well,

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Speaker 1: what do you guys, as reporters do? Good question, What

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Speaker 1: we do as reporters is what we do a lot

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Speaker 1: as reporters covering baseball. We stand around waiting for people

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Speaker 1: to talk to. Now, generally speaking, at these meetings, what

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Speaker 1: happens is groundwork is laid, groundwork for future free agent signings,

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Speaker 1: groundwork for future trades. You'll often hear once a signing

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Speaker 1: is made or once a trade is completed. Hey, we

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Speaker 1: started talking about this at the GM meetings. We kind

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Speaker 1: of kicked some ideas around and it grew from there.

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Speaker 1: That is really what the GM meetings are for. You

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Speaker 1: will see though, on occasion, an occasional trade, and I

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Speaker 1: will give you a couple right now.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Some of these trades happen right after the GM meetings

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Speaker 1: and not at the meetings themselves, but they effectively were

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Speaker 1: accomplished at the meetings. Twenty fifteen, Craig Kimbrel from the

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Speaker 1: Padres to the Red Sox. Remember that deal Manny Margou

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Speaker 1: went back to the Padres two thousand and eight. I

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Speaker 1: remember this one well. I was actually driving away from

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Speaker 1: the meetings. They were in the San Diego area. I

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Speaker 1: was headed to the airport when Mattia was traded from

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Speaker 1: the Rockies to the oakwen A's for a package that

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Speaker 1: included Carlos Gonzalez and Houston Street. That was a big

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Speaker 1: deal two thousand and seven, the brad Lidge trade to

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Speaker 1: the Phillies that happened there, and the one I remember

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Speaker 1: perhaps best involved my friend from Foul Territory, none other

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Speaker 1: than Aj Prazinski. This goes back to two thousand and three.

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Speaker 1: The meetings were at the Biltmore Hotel in Arizona. Don't

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Speaker 1: ask me why I remember that, but they were there

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Speaker 1: in Phoenix and AJ in an infamous trade, as it

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Speaker 1: turned out, was traded to the Giants from the Twins

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Speaker 1: for boof Bonser, Francisco Loiano and Joe Nathan. Aj of

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Speaker 1: course has talked many times about how it didn't all

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Speaker 1: work out and the Giants fans didn't particularly like him

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Speaker 1: the way that trade evolved. But that trade was a

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Speaker 1: very memorable one because at the time it wasn't considered

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Speaker 1: necessarily a horrible trade for the Giants. And I remember

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Speaker 1: it as well, and I'm gonna throw somebody under the

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Speaker 1: bus slightly here, because I remember trying to confirm that, Yes,

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Speaker 1: this is twenty and three, twenty one years ago, and

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Speaker 1: I remember it. I remember trying to confirm that deal

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Speaker 1: with the Giant's assistant GM at the time, Ned COLLETTI.

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Speaker 1: Ned went on to become, of course, the Dodgers GM

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Speaker 1: for many years. And for some reason, when I called Ned,

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Speaker 1: this was before texting, or at least wasn't texting much.

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Speaker 1: Ned picked up the phone and he sort of snapped

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Speaker 1: at me, and I got really upset. I got really

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Speaker 1: mad about this. Generally speaking, people yell at me. I

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Speaker 1: just kind of take it. That's the nature of the business.

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Speaker 1: You get yelled at sometimes, but this one stuck with me.

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Speaker 1: I never actually brought it up with Ned. I think

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Speaker 1: what's going on was my grandfather was sick at the time,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, my grandfather's sick, and this guy's

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Speaker 1: yelling at me about a stupid trade. It doesn't wash.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, that happened at the GM meetings, literally at

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Speaker 1: the meetings. So what you will hear about the next

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Speaker 1: few days most likely are a lot of ideas, maybe

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Speaker 1: some rumors, maybe some things that are taking place. We get,

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Speaker 1: as reporters a couple of availabilities, with the formal availabilities

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Speaker 1: where they will basically line up, actually not line up,

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Speaker 1: appear in different parts of a ballroom. We'll take a

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Speaker 1: table each of them, and we can go from table

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Speaker 1: to table or whatever. The case might be and talk

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Speaker 1: to them. Maybe it's less formal than that with no table,

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Speaker 1: but they'll be in one room and we can bounce around,

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Speaker 1: ask different GMS, different questions, different heads of Baseball operations,

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Speaker 1: whatever their titles might be. There will be one session

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Speaker 1: for the American group and there will be one session

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Speaker 1: for the National League group. They'll take place, I believe,

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Speaker 1: on different days. You can ask questions that way and

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Speaker 1: often accomplish things along those lines. And of course agents

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Speaker 1: are around and you can ask them about their clients

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Speaker 1: and what they foresee for them in free agency. But

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Speaker 1: generally the GM meetings compared to the Winter meetings are

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Speaker 1: much more low key. It's not as intense a media environment,

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Speaker 1: it's not as intense a trading or free agent signing environment.

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Speaker 1: It's just the prelude to that all. And yes, some

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Speaker 1: things might get accomplished this week. Certainly, some options you'll

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Speaker 1: see exercise, and the deadline for that is approaching. But

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Speaker 1: from a major standpoint, from a major signing stamp, on

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Speaker 1: a major trade standpoint, probably unlikely we'll see anything along

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Speaker 1: those lines. But again, remember what I told you. In

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Speaker 1: a few weeks from now, when you start hearing the

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Speaker 1: bigger things you'll hear, you'll see reported those conversations often

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Speaker 1: started at the GM meetings. We'll be right back after

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Speaker 1: a quick word from Aj Persinski, Eric Kratz and Scott Braun.

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Speaker 1: Time now for grilling Ken. Let's get to your questions.

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Speaker 1: First question comes from Mad King Tyler, who asks which

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Speaker 1: starting pitchers should the Red Sox heavily target this offseason.

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Speaker 1: Approven ace like Corbin Burns, an underrated star like Max Freed,

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Speaker 1: or take a chance on an overseas star in Roki Sasaki.

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Speaker 1: Mad King Tyler, I would suggest all of the above.

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Speaker 1: They should be looking at every possible option. And my

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Speaker 1: friend Sean McCadam, who works from masslive dot com, had

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Speaker 1: another idea in something he wrote, I believe it was

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Speaker 1: over the weekend Crochet a trade for Garrett Crochet. The

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Speaker 1: Red Sox system right now is in a really good place,

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Speaker 1: so they should be looking at all options, all the

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Speaker 1: ones you mentioned and others. Snell should be an option

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Speaker 1: for them. Every pitcher on the market should be something

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Speaker 1: that they investigate or someone they investigate and they cannot

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Speaker 1: come up empty, they need to go. Now. It's time

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Speaker 1: for the Red Sox to start acting like the Red

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Speaker 1: Sox again, So may King Tyler. If I were you,

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Speaker 1: if I were any Red Sox fan and they did

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Speaker 1: not come away with at least one prominent starting pitcher

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Speaker 1: this offseason, I'd be pretty disappointed. Second question, This one

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Speaker 1: comes from Devin Davolos, who asks if the Yankees miss

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Speaker 1: out on Soto, where would you see them pivoting and

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Speaker 1: kind of address that one. Also, which small market teams

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Speaker 1: can you see having a busy offseason to try and

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Speaker 1: go for it next season. We've already seen one team

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Speaker 1: jump out and it's the same team that jumped out

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Speaker 1: last year. Kansas City Royals signed Michael Waka to a

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Speaker 1: three year, fifty one million dollar contract. He of course

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Speaker 1: had the ability to opt out. That helps stabilize their rotation. Right.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna have Waka, Lugo and Cole Reagan's again next year.

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Speaker 1: That was the heart of their team in many respects

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Speaker 1: this season, the reason why they were able to rebound

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Speaker 1: from one hundred and six losses. Another team I'm looking at,

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Speaker 1: and this team I've talked about before and I'm going

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Speaker 1: to talk about them all off season. The Detroit Tigers,

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Speaker 1: like the Red Sox obviously at a different position financially,

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Speaker 1: but like the Red Sox, they should be ready to go,

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Speaker 1: and whether it's at first base some other position offensively,

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Speaker 1: they need to add. They need also to supplement their bullpen,

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Speaker 1: which has been really good, no question, I don't know

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Speaker 1: they can count on it again. And I would also

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Speaker 1: like to see them get one more starting pitcher to

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Speaker 1: pair with Tarek Skoubel at the top of the rotation.

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Speaker 1: The Tigers, in my view, playing in a weaker division,

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Speaker 1: with the nucleus of young players that they have, are

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Speaker 1: in position to make a move here. Now, spending money

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Speaker 1: does not always a quick to advancement, we all know that,

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Speaker 1: but the Tigers now it's go time, as it is

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Speaker 1: with the Red Sox, as it is with a number

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Speaker 1: of other teams. But these teams in particular, in my view,

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Speaker 1: should be at a point where they are spending again.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 1: Final question, This one comes from Victor Nicastro, who asks

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Speaker 1: why is MLB the only league that doesn't use its

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Speaker 1: highest rate officials to umpire the playoffs and World Series?

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Speaker 1: Every other league uses its highest rated guys. Victor, this

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Speaker 1: is a question a lot of fans ask, and it

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Speaker 1: became a particularly relevant question after the World Series umpires

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Speaker 1: were announced and some of the independent rating sites that

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Speaker 1: you'll see on X and other forms of social media

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Speaker 1: kind of declare that these guys weren't the best. Now,

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Speaker 1: what we need to know, or what we all need

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Speaker 1: to understand, is the rating system that those sites use

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Speaker 1: and the rating system that MLB uses are two different things.

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Speaker 1: MLB has its own way of rating umpires, and with

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Speaker 1: regard to the playoffs, the three leading factors that go

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Speaker 1: into the assignments are yes, regular season performance, but also

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Speaker 1: communication skills and situation handling. Now you might say, okay,

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Speaker 1: that's a fine, but we're still not getting the best

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Speaker 1: of the best. And if you watched the World Series,

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Speaker 1: I would suggest, not unfairly in my estimation, that we

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Speaker 1: weren't necessarily seeing the best of the best. We had

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Speaker 1: some curious things going on behind the plate in particular.

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Speaker 1: So this is the way MLB does it. I don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily agree that it's the best way. I don't necessarily

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Speaker 1: we were getting the best of the best. But that

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Speaker 1: is the explanation I got when I asked the league

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Speaker 1: to explain, Hey, how are you picking these umpires? How

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Speaker 1: are you selecting which umpires are using for the World Series.

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Speaker 1: I want to thank everyone for their questions, Thank everyone

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Speaker 1: for watching, for listening. There where to find us YouTube, Apple, Spotify.

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Speaker 1: We will be back at some point later in the week.

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Speaker 1: Have a great week everyone, and here we go with

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