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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us proud read enough, No, we're running again, so

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Speaker 2: smoothe so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind bog buddy, And.

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Speaker 2: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 2: the most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the wall.

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Speaker 3: It's left too the wide eyed.

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Speaker 1: Drilled fibus.

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Speaker 3: How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, welcome back to Wondergo, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network, presented to you by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. My name is Michael Lieba and joining me

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Speaker 1: for another handicapping adventure through the Premier League Anthony Dabundo

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Speaker 1: and BJ Cunningham. But before I bring those two gentlemen

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Speaker 1: in and we go through every match on this weekend's

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Speaker 1: Premier League slat and then touch on the Bundesliga La

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Speaker 1: Liga Syria, a legal give out our underdog parlay or

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Speaker 1: three leg underdog Parlay, which oh boy lost in excruciating

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Speaker 1: fashion for basically everybody except for those who are betting

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Speaker 1: with our sponsor's Bet three six five. BJ can talk

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Speaker 1: about that when we get to that segment of the show,

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Speaker 1: and then our best bets for the Premier League. But

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Speaker 1: before we get into all that fun, just a reminder

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Speaker 1: that Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that

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Speaker 1: every sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point,

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Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 1: you sign up today with promo code Action and you'll

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Speaker 1: get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever

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Speaker 1: the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 1: you must be twenty one or older and present in

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Speaker 1: the states of Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia.

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Speaker 1: And if you or anybody you know has a gambling

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Speaker 1: problem and wants help, please call one eight hundred Gambler

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred bets Off in IOWA terms and conditions apply

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Speaker 1: fun week ahead of us in the Premier League, and

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Speaker 1: we'll get things kicked off with the headliner between Newcastle

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Speaker 1: and Arsenal. The Magpies home underdog BJA A little interesting

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Speaker 1: here there plus one eighty the Gunnards traveling as a

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Speaker 1: plus one fifty road favorite, so just a slight favorite.

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Speaker 1: But and the draws at two twenty. Here's the stakes.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal one of two unbeaten teams along with their North

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Speaker 1: London rivals Tottenham. They're sitting second in the table right

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Speaker 1: now at twenty four points, two off Tottenham. Seven wins,

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Speaker 1: three draws, no losses. Newcastle a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: starter step here, with two draws and a win in

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Speaker 1: their last three in the Premier League overall five two

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Speaker 1: and three win, draw loss and on seventeen points, so

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Speaker 1: seven a drift of Arsenal title race wise close to

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Speaker 1: him as much as close to a must win game

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Speaker 1: for Newcastle as you could get at this juncture of

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Speaker 1: the season. I would say BJ, but I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I don't think this line makes sense. That is this

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Speaker 1: a wrong team his favorite situation?

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Speaker 3: Yes it is, and it pains me to say that.

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Speaker 3: But so coming into this, you know, I was really

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Speaker 3: interested to say what lineup Newcastle was going to play

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Speaker 3: today against Manchester United in the League Cup, because I

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Speaker 3: tweeted this out on Saturday. The second half against Wolves,

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Speaker 3: they looked absolutely gassed from the fixture pilot with having

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Speaker 3: to play the champions leaguing in the midweek and not

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Speaker 3: really rotating their squad. In fact, they weren't even pressing

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Speaker 3: high against Wold, which is a staple and why they've

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Speaker 3: been so good under any how, So if they weren't

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Speaker 3: going to rotate today, it was gonna be really really

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Speaker 3: concerning if they could actually play the way that they

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Speaker 3: wanted to I gat against Arsenal. Now they did rotate,

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Speaker 3: So it makes me more comfortable betting Newcastle here. If

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Speaker 3: we go back to last season, Newcastle was plus closed

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Speaker 3: as a plus one twenty five home favorite against Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: This is an Arsenal team without Saliba. He is not

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Speaker 3: worth you know the difference and what this what the

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Speaker 3: the odds are between then and now, and obviously Arsenal

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Speaker 3: has spent a bunch of money, so you know their

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Speaker 3: team is I don't know if you could say they're

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Speaker 3: they're better than they were last season, but they're different,

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Speaker 3: is what I would what I would say. But in

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Speaker 3: that match, even though Arsenal one two nothing, Newcastle completely

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Speaker 3: beat up Arsenal's build up play and that's really the

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Speaker 3: concern here for Arsenal. In that match, Newcastle had a

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Speaker 3: pass per defensive action seven point five. It only allowed

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Speaker 3: a seventy eight point one percent build up completion percentage. Now,

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Speaker 3: for context, Arsenal's build up completion percentage last year was

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Speaker 3: around eighty eight percent. So it was a very very

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Speaker 3: good performance from Newcastle end up winning the expected goals battle.

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Speaker 3: They just didn't get They just got caught on the

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Speaker 3: wrong side of variants. Now, Anthony's talked a lot about

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Speaker 3: Arsenal's offense struggling.

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Speaker 2: They have, but.

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Speaker 3: There are a lot of things that have happened that

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Speaker 3: I you know, and the guys A tevot did a

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Speaker 3: great video highlighting of what Arsenal's problems are and really

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Speaker 3: what it is is they are not able to progress

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Speaker 3: the ball through the central parts of the pitch and

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Speaker 3: that's what made them so good last year. If you know,

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Speaker 3: opted to actually opt actually just put out a chart

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Speaker 3: today showing the percentages of chances created by the right,

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Speaker 3: left side or central parts of the pitch. Arsenal is

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Speaker 3: dead last at creating chances to the central part of

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Speaker 3: the pitch. That's really really concerning. And then forty nine

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Speaker 3: percent of their chances created are coming on the right

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Speaker 3: side because that's where their best player is. But kay Osaka,

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Speaker 3: he was rested today, which is good news. The other

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Speaker 3: problem is, and Anthony Highl I lived this last time,

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Speaker 3: is that Arsenal's not scoring early, so they're not benefiting

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Speaker 3: from being a in game state and doing quick transitions

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Speaker 3: and catching teams out of position. What's been happening is

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Speaker 3: essentially teams are playing low blocks. Arsenal has been having

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Speaker 3: to do a lot of balls circulation around low blocks,

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Speaker 3: trying to create chances that way, and it just hasn't worked.

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Speaker 3: So the final thing I'll say about this is that

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Speaker 3: what really makes me worried and why I'm betting Newcastle

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Speaker 3: is Arsenal's defense has been so so good. They're only

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Speaker 3: allowing point seventy to one non penalty actually for ninety minutes.

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Speaker 3: That's now better than Manchester City. Where have the chances

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Speaker 3: come for the teams that have created over one expectacle

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Speaker 3: against them? Which is Nottingham, Forest, Chelsea and Tottenham. Its

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Speaker 3: mistakes and build up play is what has cost them

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Speaker 3: and there is no better team in the world that

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Speaker 3: can capitalize and cause mistakes and build up play than Newcastle.

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Speaker 3: If you don't believe me, go watch the PSG match.

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Speaker 3: So I'm betting against Arsenal here. I think this is

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Speaker 3: the first time I bet against Arsenal this season. But

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Speaker 3: Newcastle john o bet plus one oh seven is the

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Speaker 3: best price you can find on that and it's at

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Speaker 3: back through bet three six five. And this is Newcastle

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Speaker 3: also at home plus one point four to six actually

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Speaker 3: differential per ninety since the started last season, so one

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Speaker 3: of the best home field advantages in the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: Really shouldn't be underdogs now that they've rotated a lot

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Speaker 3: of guys in the midweek against Manchester United. So I'll

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Speaker 3: be on Newcastle john O Bett plus one oh seven.

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Speaker 2: Arsenal scored five, burned my trash man.

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Speaker 3: Bet you should score no, like I did.

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Speaker 2: I know that was the sharp play. I don't do those,

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Speaker 2: but Arsenal didn't. I didn't think Arsenal were that good.

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Speaker 2: I really didn't like you know, the second goal comes

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Speaker 2: from the goalie, you know, making a mistake on a

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Speaker 2: set piece. They finished the game with less than two

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Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals against what we now and I

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Speaker 2: think can pretty safely say as one of the worst

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Speaker 2: prem teams we've seen in a long time. So I

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Speaker 2: wasn't all that impressed. Jesus out again and I've I've

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Speaker 2: said my piece on eddying Nakattia, so I'm gonna try

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Speaker 2: to reverse jinx him.

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Speaker 3: He is the best striker in the world. Thank you,

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Speaker 3: finally going against him. Can we clip that? Please?

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Speaker 2: Hope that's keep it fir. But you know, look, and

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Speaker 2: there's something really interesting happening with the market with Newcastle.

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Speaker 2: Every game the undertakes money. Somebody out there has lost

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Speaker 2: a shit ton of money betting Newcastle unders this year,

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Speaker 2: took a ton of money again against Wolves. The market

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Speaker 2: has steamed their unders a lot this season and they've

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Speaker 2: been wrong. I mean, Newcastle's created three point nine three

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Speaker 2: point two two two point four two point two expected

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Speaker 2: goals their last five league matches. They haven't played a

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Speaker 2: murderer's row per se, but they're getting a lot of

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Speaker 2: production from not the striker position that's really sustaining them.

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Speaker 2: I mean Callum Wilson's getting almost one non penalty expected

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Speaker 2: goal per match, which is ridiculous. But Gordon, you know,

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Speaker 2: point three to five per ninety, Alan Roane point three

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Speaker 2: per ninety. Long Staff is getting a couple good shots

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Speaker 2: a game U six shots per ninety from those three players,

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Speaker 2: plus Callum Wilson has maintained his form from last year.

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Speaker 2: So the match up here is pretty simple, and it's

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Speaker 2: kind of how bj laid it out. Newcastle's at their

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Speaker 2: best when they don't have the and they're able to

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Speaker 2: let the other team have the ball and then break

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Speaker 2: into space with with it once they win it, and

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Speaker 2: Arsenal wants the ball. Arsenal this year, I think they're

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Speaker 2: actually better out of possession, so you know, one potential

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Speaker 2: avenue for Arsenal is to counterpress right when Newcastle gets

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Speaker 2: on the ball, immediately look to press them back. Newcastle

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Speaker 2: has not been great in those spots. We saw Dortmund

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Speaker 2: have some success there, but Arsenal's, you know, like you said,

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Speaker 2: been worse in possession. And Newcastle's creating a ridiculous three

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Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety at home this year, and so

185
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Speaker 2: they've been so dominant. I can't get to this line,

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Speaker 2: I think Arsenal's marginally better, not enough to be a

187
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Speaker 2: road favorite. So yeah, give me the Magpies at home.

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Speaker 2: Even game states this year Arsenal one point one seven

189
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Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety So when teams have had the

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Speaker 2: ability to be compact and han't had to come out

191
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Speaker 2: and really go after Arsenal, there have been very low

192
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Speaker 2: event point five to six XG against one point one

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Speaker 2: seven XTG four so their matches have been very whoa

194
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Speaker 2: we'll say, and if you if you go back and

195
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Speaker 2: you do watch that match from last year, Newcastle could

196
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Speaker 2: have scored two or three times in the first fifteen minutes,

197
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Speaker 2: Arsenal got a pen, they settled in and then things changed.

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Speaker 3: Since it started last season two, Newcastle has a better

199
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Speaker 3: expected gole defferential than Arsenal also, so that's why their favorite,

200
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Speaker 3: that's why they should be favorite at home.

201
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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think so, we're all in agreement. I'll

202
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Speaker 1: be on the money line. All right. We'll flip from that.

203
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Speaker 1: That's a Saturday afternoon kick to Monday night football. We

204
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Speaker 1: haven't had a Monday night football game quite like this

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Speaker 1: in a while. Spurs top of the table hosting Chelsea

206
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Speaker 1: not top of the table. TOTNUMD plus one ten at

207
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Speaker 1: home is a favorite, Chelsea plus two twenty five and

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Speaker 1: the draw on the three way line is plus two fifty.

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Speaker 1: We talked a little bit about this last week, thinking

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Speaker 1: that we could see a pretty heavy tax on Tottenham,

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Speaker 1: especially if they got out of that tricky spot last

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Speaker 1: weekend with the win what they did, and we didn't

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Speaker 1: really see it at all. Birds took care of business

214
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Speaker 1: against Palace to one, and you'd think that there'd may

215
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Speaker 1: be a little bit of reaction to Chelsea falling at

216
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Speaker 1: Brentford are now eleventh on the table and have more

217
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Speaker 1: losses than wins on the season. So it's just it's

218
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Speaker 1: been ugly for Chelsea and the underlying numbers are still

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Speaker 1: pretty good for them. But this is a song and

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Speaker 1: dance we've seen all too often with this iteration of

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Speaker 1: the Blues that said, I I'm closer to Benny Chelsea

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Speaker 1: because I can see this line only going in one direction,

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Speaker 1: then I would be to Benny Spurs. It probably not

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Speaker 1: gonna happen enough for me, but Anthony I've got I've

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Speaker 1: got no interest in Tottenham at this number against a

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Speaker 1: dangerous Chelsea team, albeit one that falls flat on its

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Speaker 1: face quite often.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the market is saying that Chelsea is

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Speaker 2: better than Spurs, even their peers. I mean, go find

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Speaker 2: any Premier League fan or pundit or person on Earth

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Speaker 2: who isn't in the betting community and asked them who's

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Speaker 2: been better this season Tottenham or Chelsea and they would

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Speaker 2: look in the front. They would say, well, I mean

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Speaker 2: obviously Spurs, but have.

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Speaker 3: They who has a better expected goal differential? Tottenham or Chelsea?

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Speaker 3: Right now?

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Speaker 2: It's Chelsea.

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Speaker 3: It is Chelsea.

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Speaker 2: I mean, but again, but I don't buy it. Look,

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Speaker 2: Tottenham for a long time had Son and Kane who

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Speaker 2: were two proven plus finishers, and Larise was a very

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Speaker 2: good shot stopper, and they outperformed their XG on both

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Speaker 2: ends every year for like four or five years, the

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Speaker 2: peak peak years. And you know it's too early with Vicario,

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Speaker 2: but they replaced Kane with Madison essentially in their primary shotcutter.

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Speaker 2: Madison also someone who has had a proven track record

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Speaker 2: of outperforming XG and like Spurs ran so bad defensively

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Speaker 2: last year because Lurise became cooked. But Vicario is saving

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Speaker 2: them so many goals right now, and he's saved over

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Speaker 2: two goals this season just alone. So I think at

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Speaker 2: the Margins like I'm I'm loose sort of Spurs here.

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Speaker 2: The market just isn't upgrading them. They gave them a

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Speaker 2: small bump. We talked about it last week. I didn't

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Speaker 2: think they played well enough at Palace at all to

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Speaker 2: deserve the bump off of last week. I thought they

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Speaker 2: had a pretty awful first half. Joe Ward turned one

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Speaker 2: into his own net Spurs had one really good attacking

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Speaker 2: move and that was pretty much it. I mean when

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Speaker 2: you look at this though, like Chelsea at the Margins

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Speaker 2: loses this game, I think if you think they're two

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Speaker 2: even teams, so I can't get to like Chelsea plus

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Speaker 2: a quarter.

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Speaker 1: They don't profile well is a draw team at all. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're so hectic, but.

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Speaker 2: Well here's the thing. Are they as bad defensively as

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Speaker 2: we think? But I'm coming around to this Van Deven

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Speaker 2: Romero partnership. Like Van Deven looks really really really good

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Speaker 2: and his speed and like they're really good pairing. They

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Speaker 2: work well off each other.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the question is is how they faced

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Speaker 3: a team that can capitalize off of those of how

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Speaker 3: to playing because yeah, I mean they've played.

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Speaker 1: You know, obviously they have Deliverpool absolute man with exactly

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Speaker 1: could have had three in the first half, yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: Posts they were posts and.

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Speaker 2: Arsenal didn't want to attack, no, but.

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Speaker 3: But they did a great job out of possession, pressing

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Speaker 3: Tottenam when they tried to build out of the back.

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Speaker 3: So that's that. I mean, honestly, these teams played kind

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Speaker 3: of similarly, so it's really just comes down to who's

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Speaker 3: better in build a play and who's better at pressing. Like, honestly,

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Speaker 3: that's really what it comes down to, because Toddham has

283
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Speaker 3: just been way more clinical in the final third than

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Speaker 3: Chelsea has been. Chelsea has obviously created a ton of

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Speaker 3: expected goals and not scored any of them. And I

286
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Speaker 3: think the reason why all of us are not, you know,

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Speaker 3: sitting here banging the table being like, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 3: regression for Chelsea is because you saw it in the

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Speaker 3: Brends because we did that last year. I know, we

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Speaker 3: did that last year for like the whole season and

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Speaker 3: then it just never happened. And even this season you

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Speaker 3: see it in the Brentford match. They just don't have

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Speaker 3: anybody who can finish right now, like they need a

294
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Speaker 3: proven striker to finish off a lot of these chances.

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Speaker 3: So they're doing an unbelievable job of getting in the

296
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Speaker 3: final third getting the ball into the box like they did.

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Speaker 3: They were playing well against Brentford for large stretches and

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Speaker 3: then just what happens one defensive They fall asleep on

299
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Speaker 3: defense Pinn It goes to the back post boom goal

300
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Speaker 3: and it's like, all right, now we got to try

301
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Speaker 3: to break down a little block that is impenetrable. So

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Speaker 3: this is yeah, this is like the easiest pass on

303
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Speaker 3: the board, I think, just because of how it's priced.

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Speaker 3: Quite frankly, like we talked about it before. If you know,

305
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Speaker 3: if Todham was minus one ten, I'd probably be like, okay,

306
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Speaker 3: let's bet Chelsea. This is great, yes, but it's not

307
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Speaker 3: so I think we all pass.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, we'll see if we can catch a bet

309
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Speaker 1: here on Fulham and United, then I don't think so

310
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Speaker 1: with the way this one's priced too. But the Cottagers

311
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Speaker 1: are at plus two thirty United out of the EFL

312
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Speaker 1: Cup plus one fifteen and the draw is plus two forty.

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Speaker 1: This has got to be it for ten hg right,

314
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Speaker 1: Like it has to.

315
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Speaker 3: Mean if they lose this it has to be right, Yeah,

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00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,840
Speaker 3: it has to be And I thought I saw something

317
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Speaker 3: very interesting the other day. He's been playing very attacking

318
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 3: lineups or like subbing in a bunch of attackers, and

319
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Speaker 3: a lot of people are like, this is what happens

320
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Speaker 3: near the end of managers when they know the writings

321
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 3: on the wall and they're going to probably get fired,

322
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Speaker 3: is that they just throw as many attackers on the

323
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Speaker 3: field as they can and just like hope that they

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Speaker 3: can outscore teams or whatever, or at least make it

325
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Speaker 3: look you know, beautiful or good so that they don't

326
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Speaker 3: get fired. But I'll be honest, Michael. The market has

327
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Speaker 3: come back a little bit on United. They were sitting

328
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Speaker 3: around minus one o five minus one ten before this week.

329
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Speaker 3: Now we're sitting up plus one fifteen.

330
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Speaker 1: Yeah.

331
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Speaker 3: Films look better, though they have. I thought they were

332
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Speaker 3: pretty good for stretches against Tottenham. They were good against

333
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,160
Speaker 3: Brighton over the weekend. They were even good against Hipswitch

334
00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 3: Down today. I lost some money on that one, but yeah,

335
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 3: I mean I have United my I think around minus

336
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Speaker 3: one o three. I believe it is plus one oh

337
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 3: three somewhere.

338
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 2: One of that in that range is money for me.

339
00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so if we get to United plus one twenty five,

340
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,880
Speaker 3: depending on what the line up is, maybe, but I

341
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:03,720
Speaker 3: don't really want.

342
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 1: To quite bet him here.

343
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Speaker 2: Honestly, it's United's best lineup, I don't know. I don't

344
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 2: think Matford and Fernandez.

345
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,680
Speaker 3: But then like tactics are they playing in this match?

346
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 3: Are they going to try to build out of the

347
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,200
Speaker 3: back or are they just going to try to play

348
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,640
Speaker 3: transitional because I don't understand what they're trying to do here,

349
00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,160
Speaker 3: I really don't. It's like a mixture between two things.

350
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 3: It's just not working.

351
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you won't get me to bet a Fulham here.

352
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's too way too short.

353
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:33,359
Speaker 2: But but I mean, hey, you know you can blind

354
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,720
Speaker 2: fade United this season. You just make them money every week, so.

355
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 1: It's just free.

356
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't matter what the price is. They've they've

357
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 2: taken money's moved against them now the last two weeks.

358
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 2: So you're you're seeing a little bit of market caving

359
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,440
Speaker 2: finally to the idea that we've kind of hinted at here.

360
00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 2: But like you know, Hoyland hasn't even been that good.

361
00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,800
Speaker 2: Like he's he's not gotten a lot of shots. He's

362
00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,879
Speaker 2: played five matches five and a half matches, He's eleven

363
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 2: shots one point four expected goals. That's like not great.

364
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 2: Brashford's at like point three p ninety not.

365
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 1: Great in case we're betting United, baby, Yeah, I mean bottom.

366
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 3: It was so bad.

367
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:13,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were not good, so bad.

368
00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:16,879
Speaker 2: And they even got to play a change team from

369
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 2: Newcastle and got out played today. Yeah I know, but granted,

370
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,280
Speaker 2: I mean changed. But they're also like they're starting Garnacho Marcial,

371
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,680
Speaker 2: like those are not good players.

372
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:29,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna be on United.

373
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 2: Uh, I love it, I mean I do, but yeah,

374
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:37,400
Speaker 2: it's still starting to him. Yeah, they started him again

375
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:38,560
Speaker 2: last week and it's like.

376
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,479
Speaker 1: What that's the thing, Like it's like as leaky as

377
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 1: this United defense as they're not going up against it.

378
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,240
Speaker 2: Either three goals or more in six of their last

379
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:53,919
Speaker 2: nine matches in all competitions. That's freaking remarkable. And I know,

380
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 2: and like he's got Varan sitting on the bench. He's

381
00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 2: playing you know, different, he's playing Johnny and City. It

382
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 2: was too It was like a I mean, the first

383
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 2: half I thought United played well. The second half was

384
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:05,320
Speaker 2: like a training exercise.

385
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:10,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, it happens here like Fulham. The question for me

386
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 1: here is like, how likely is it that Fulham gets

387
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,640
Speaker 1: in the United's defense? It's it's it's a dangerous game

388
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 1: to play. But how likely is it that Fulham gets

389
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 1: beyond one goal in this match? Because I have a

390
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 1: tough time and I know they played pretty well last too,

391
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,400
Speaker 1: defensively against Tottenham and Brighton. But like Fulham, I don't

392
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 1: see Fulham coming and posting a clean sheet here. They

393
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 1: are just not going to do that, uh, in all likelihood?

394
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 1: And do they score like they've scored over They've scored

395
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 1: two or more twice in the Premier League this season,

396
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 1: once against Arsenal and the other against I believe Sheffield United,

397
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 1: So I like, I just think that this is like

398
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:50,119
Speaker 1: a classic classic bilo.

399
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, well plus one twenty five join me.

400
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 1: It will be fine. We'll be fine right here. All right,

401
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 1: that was a dollur conversation. We just shipped on a

402
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 1: team for you know, five minutes and it ended up

403
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 1: with us being like, yeah, me betting them, and you

404
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: guys being like, yeah, so that's good.

405
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 2: Redford at Copenhagen. We're gonna talk about them again on Sunday.

406
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you don't get fired against Fulham, I.

407
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 2: Don't think they'll fire. I'm heading into a champion, That's

408
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:20,199
Speaker 2: what it is.

409
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, they'll leave them a Copenhagen on to Brentford and

410
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 1: west Ham. Now the Bees plus one hundred and even

411
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,919
Speaker 1: money favorite at home against the Hammers. We're traveling at

412
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: plus two sixty in the draws plus two fifty. I

413
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 1: think this one is pretty straightforward.

414
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we don't like brenning Brentford as a favorite generally.

415
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 2: But I think with the situation developing at west Ham

416
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: right now, I think that the market is it has moved.

417
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,479
Speaker 2: They move from plus one twenty five to plus one

418
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 2: oh five one hundred in the last couple of days

419
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 2: since the match. West Ham lost on Sunday to the Toffees.

420
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 2: But there are some concerns now for west Ham. The

421
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 2: first is Poketa is suspended. He's been one of their

422
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 2: best players this year plus zero point three to seven

423
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 2: XG plus xa per ninety elite defensive work rate at

424
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 2: son Alvarez is suspended because the yellow cards. Also, there's

425
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 2: a big, big rest disadvantage for west Ham here. West

426
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 2: Ham played Thursday in Greece Sunday against Everton, then played

427
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 2: a Carabell Cup match on Wednesday and then has to

428
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 2: turn around and play this match on the road in

429
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 2: the league on Saturday, so it's four matches in ten days,

430
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,719
Speaker 2: whereas Brentford has played two matches. They didn't have the Euroupe,

431
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 2: they didn't have the Cup, so it's a pretty big

432
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 2: rest advantage. The Hammers don't have a ton of depth here.

433
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 2: One of the biggest edges that West Ham has over

434
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: most teams has set pieces. They don't really have it

435
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 2: in this one because the Bees are just as good

436
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 2: and just as organized on set pieces and Mikhale Antonio,

437
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,439
Speaker 2: the fact that they went into the season with just

438
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,679
Speaker 2: him at striker is baffling to me because he's like

439
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 2: reaching him in as levels of washed. He had one

440
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 2: amazing game against Brighton. We all watched it. He was

441
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 2: the best player on the pitch averaged in eight nineties

442
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 2: point two x G plus x A P ninety point

443
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: one three x G P ninety. That's that's not a

444
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 2: striker anymore. He's got three total shots in his last

445
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 2: five matches and like I said, all of it came.

446
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 2: All of his production this season came in the game

447
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 2: against Brighton when he was rumbling and tumbling and dominating them.

448
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 2: So I think that the market is still catching up

449
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 2: to the Bees. They're the better team, they're at home,

450
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 2: they have advantages and travel and the advantages and suspensions

451
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 2: and so you know, the Hammers just haven't been good

452
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 2: defensively and they're gonna lose again. So I'll take the

453
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 2: Bees on the money line.

454
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you there, thanks sir. Things are teetering

455
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: for West Ham a bit here and it sounded like

456
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 1: you just read it excerpt from Winnie the Pooh there

457
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 1: talking about Mikhail Antonio, friend of the pod. BJ's are

458
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 1: going to be three for three here and the Bees.

459
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 3: Yeah this is uh, spouse goes against for Brentford. So

460
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 3: I understand that, you know, people don't like to bet

461
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 3: Brentford as favorites, but you know, typically what Brentford does

462
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 3: is when they're playing in matches like this where they

463
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 3: know they're going to be the ones that are would

464
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 3: be controlling a lot of the possession. They actually switched

465
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 3: their formation from a three to five to two to

466
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 3: a four to three three. They did that against Burnley.

467
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 3: They've played Neil mop Pie up top with we S

468
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 3: on the left and and Bumo on the right and

469
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 3: it actually worked very, very effectively. They created north of

470
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 3: three expected goals. I understand Burnley got a red card

471
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 3: in the second half, but Brentford since the start of

472
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 3: last season against the bottom half of the table plus

473
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 3: eighteen point five expected gold evential in twenty six matches.

474
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 3: And west Ham they're playing I mean, we say it

475
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 3: every single week, but they're playing the deepest low block

476
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 3: of anybody in the Premier League. They're just not good

477
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 3: in it. They allowed point eight to Everton on Sunday.

478
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 3: It's the first time they've held an opponent under one

479
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 3: expected goal this season. Like, that's how bad they've been

480
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 3: in their defensive low block. And again Anthony mentioned set pieces.

481
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 3: West Ham can't defend them. Their eighteenth the next cheaper

482
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 3: set piece allowed Brentford obviously one of the best set

483
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: teams in the Premier League. So the one last thing

484
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 3: I'll say about west Ham is typically what are the

485
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: teams or who are the teams they are good against?

486
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: Teams that want to either press them high, teams that

487
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 3: want to overload the last line of defense. Their teams

488
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 3: want to commit a lot of players into the attacking

489
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: phase the third so that they can get those transitional

490
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 3: opportunities and face teams that are bad in transition. Brentford

491
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,719
Speaker 3: is not one of those teams. Brentford they're not going

492
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 3: to press hither sixteenth and high turnovers and they're allowing

493
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 3: the third lowest long ball completion rates. So if west

494
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 3: Ham is not going to get numbers in transition and

495
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 3: they're facing a good transition defense, I question how they're

496
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 3: going to effectively create chances in this match. And Anthony

497
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 3: Dalden had I mean, there's so many advantages from rest

498
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 3: and travel for Brentford here for them to be only

499
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 3: even money. I mean I projected Brentford closer to around

500
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 3: minus one thirty for me, yep, so this is a

501
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 3: great spot for them. So yeah, Brentford at home plus

502
00:24:59,240 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 3: one o five.

503
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 2: Yeah. I thought Kurt Jumo has been really bad. That's

504
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 2: just from the eye test. I don't have like stats

505
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 2: on that's just my opinion. I feel like he's played

506
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: really poorly this season.

507
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 3: And Ariel is starting to regress from having the insane

508
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 3: shots stopping start to the season as well.

509
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, he got all of his saves in against Brighton

510
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: and Chelsea and now he's he's he's a perfectly fine keeper.

511
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right. Now up to the North Wall where

512
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: Burnley's hosting Crystal Palace. Burnley home underdog plus one seventy five,

513
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: Palace traveling at plus one fifty five. The draw is

514
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: plus two twenty. Another stylistic matchup for Palace that I

515
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: should say opposite a track, kind of stylistic matchup. Burnley's

516
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 1: gonna want to keep the ball on the carpet, knock

517
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 1: it around Palace. I'll be happy to sit back and

518
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 1: let them do that, especially on the road. I thought

519
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 1: Palace was pretty good again against Tottenham. I think that

520
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 1: that's kind of just going to be their profile is

521
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: against teams that have more talent and or and just

522
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 1: play this kind of attacking brand uh ball on the

523
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 1: floor football like Palace is always going to be able

524
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: to frustrate them on on some nights, and it's going

525
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 1: to come down to if they can, yeah, make the

526
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 1: margin of error thinner or or I guess wider for

527
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 1: for their opponents, thinner for them, and catch the breaks

528
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: and they just didn't against Spurs. I just don't think

529
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: that they're the numbers got enough on Palace on the

530
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 1: road here, even against a Burnley team that is a

531
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: real mess, Anthony.

532
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Burnley just our Palace did not press

533
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,479
Speaker 2: Stottenham whatsoever and it was pretty effective. I mean, why

534
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 2: would Spurs would just get to the final third and

535
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 2: then they would they would get stuck and it was

536
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 2: a pretty good, pretty good game plan. But uh, when

537
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 2: you play that style, you can't afford to make the

538
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: mistake that Ward made, the gifts the goal. Uh, they

539
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: don't create anything right now, Like that's the biggest thing,

540
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: and I think BJ's bett kind of correlates with that.

541
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: Yep, back to the tried and true both teams to

542
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 3: score no. Minus one o five. Let's talk about Burnley first,

543
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 3: because obviously we've talked about how Chris Palace can't create

544
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 3: anything with Asa, which is just true. You know, the

545
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 3: four matches that they've played are the three matches they've

546
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 3: played without him, only scored once credit two point six

547
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 3: expected goals. But Burnley they suck offensively, They're really bad.

548
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 3: They are averaging point eight five non penalty x sheep

549
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 3: for ninety minutes, which if it weren't for this historically

550
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 3: bad Sheffield United team that we'll get to in a second,

551
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 3: that would be the worst mark in the Premier League

552
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: and the problem for them in this match is per Opta,

553
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 3: they have the second lowest direct speed of anybody in

554
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: the Premier League, behind only Manchester City. So if you

555
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 3: are going to play a slow build up style against

556
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 3: a Christal Palace team that is not going to press

557
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: you and not let you try to play through the

558
00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 3: central parts of the pitch, I question how how Burnley's

559
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 3: going to break down this team at all? And I

560
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: agree Michael, I thought Crystal Palace was doing a fantastic

561
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 3: job of not allowing Tottenham to play through the central

562
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 3: part of the pitch. And you saw what was happening

563
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 3: was James Madison. He's obviously somebody who likes to float

564
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 3: around the pitch. His positioning usually isn't a one type

565
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 3: of central area. He was playing a lot a lot

566
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 3: of times out wide and trying to create overloads on

567
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 3: the wide side of the pitch, and that's how Tottenham

568
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 3: was trying to create their chances. They got a couple

569
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 3: crosses in there. That's how they obviously got the own

570
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 3: goal against Ward and scored the goal with Sun tapping

571
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 3: in the second one. But is Burnley really going to

572
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 3: be able to do that against Crystal Palace. No, they

573
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 3: don't have the attackers to do it. They haven't shown

574
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 3: the ability to do it. And Crystal Palace, you know,

575
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 3: even though their defense is they're sitting around six or

576
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 3: seventh in expected goals. They've played four matches against teams

577
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: in the bottom half of the table Sheffield United, Wolves,

578
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: Fulham and Nottingham Forest. They've only allowed three point three

579
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 3: expected goals in one big scoring chance in that match.

580
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 3: So I don't really see either team putting up a

581
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 3: ton of chances in this match. I certainly don't see

582
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 3: how Burnley's gonna score. I see the only way, you know,

583
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 3: Chris Palace could have opportunities if they turn Burnley over

584
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 3: and get chances in transition. But I mean, you saw

585
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 3: Will he was at a breakaway right away, but he's

586
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 3: just slaughter man and he got caught. So that's the

587
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: problem right there. That's that's like the if you want

588
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: a clip of what's what's happening right now with Chris Palace,

589
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 3: that's the clip. If as they had that ball, I'd

590
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: be one on one and he might have tapped it

591
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 3: in and Chris Palace might be up one nothing. So yeah,

592
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 3: both team score now minus one O five projected it

593
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 3: closer to minus one twenty five.

594
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, even game states this year Palace point

595
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: eight nine x g four point eight nine x g

596
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 2: against God Love. That is pain, that's right.

597
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 1: Hot, It's about that is what it's all about.

598
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,239
Speaker 2: Burnley plus point it's not about plus at point six

599
00:29:58,400 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 2: two x G four.

600
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 3: So, yeah, it's bad.

601
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 2: If there's not an early goal here.

602
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 1: This this could get Pallas. Yeah, it could be a

603
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 1: nil nil. Look, Alice is.

604
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: Playing the perfect style to finish in the spot they

605
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,959
Speaker 3: finish every single season in the table twelve them.

606
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: It's just there's not the wrong with with what not

607
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: the wrong with that and the probably and as Anthony

608
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: said a bunch of times, uh this season like just

609
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 1: with how it tact focused soccer has gotten, especially now

610
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. It's it's made its way to

611
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: the showers of England, like William the conquer Uh, this

612
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: attack minded football. It's it's nice to see a team

613
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: like Palace stick to their guns.

614
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 3: We'll say they will be a very fun buy on

615
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: team when Alista and as they are both healthy, that's

616
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 3: gonna be very Don't let.

617
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: U don't let.

618
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 3: We've got to We've got a stretch in December where

619
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 3: Crystal Palace is gonna play Liverpool City, Brighton, Chelsea, Brentford

620
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 3: and Arsenal.

621
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: Rolling money line parlay with Dallas. Yeah, the nil nil.

622
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: It's actually seven to one, so that's not good enough.

623
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 2: Usually stop. Based on what I'm reading, it doesn't look

624
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: like they're that far away.

625
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: They're not. It's essays. I think a week away and

626
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: Alasta is only doubtful for this match.

627
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 2: So I'd imagine he's not back, but like within two

628
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 2: weeks I think they're both playing again.

629
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: So well, the good news is they might be back

630
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: when they play Everton after this match, Michael.

631
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: Nothing could stop not that they could stop us. They'll

632
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: be back for the holidays, uh, which is actually a

633
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,400
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634
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: the holiday season is right around the corner and it's

635
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,920
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636
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,160
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637
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640
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642
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643
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644
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645
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646
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658
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 1: Caldera Lab. You mentioned everdon bj We can talk about

659
00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 1: them all you want now. Okay, they are a absolute

660
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: barn storming team right now. They're plus two twenty this weekend,

661
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: though a home underdog hosting Brighton who are plus one

662
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,479
Speaker 1: twenty and the draw is plus two forty. I think

663
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: of all the matches, eh, there's maybe one we'll talk

664
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: right after this that might have a little bit more

665
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: chaos and it's the script. But this one, this one

666
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: sets up for something strange and I think you don't

667
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: have to go back that far to find proof of that,

668
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: which was seven months ago when Everton went to Brighton

669
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: as a big underdog and absolutely wolf them up for

670
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 1: breakfast the final score five to one, scored within like

671
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 1: the first forty five seconds and didn't look back and

672
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: had Brighton just all out of sports. It was an

673
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: absolute carnival and confusion for me watching that match.

674
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 3: That's what I let them stay up.

675
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, that performance, man, And I'm not saying it's going

676
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 1: to be that again, but I think that's how you

677
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: should bet. This game is kind of just to throw

678
00:33:55,440 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: the normal outcomes of a Premier League match out the

679
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 1: window and embrace the chaos here and find your bet

680
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: if you want to play this one. The line looks

681
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 1: about right to me, but I think you could definitely

682
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: have some fun here BJ with getting down with some

683
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 1: funky stuff.

684
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like over three goals to minus one ten

685
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 3: projected three point seven for this one. You know what

686
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 3: worried me trying to analyze this match is, you know,

687
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 3: Deservee knows that he knows what happened, and I worry

688
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 3: if he becomes a little bit more cautious. But that's

689
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 3: just not his style. And I think what gets lost

690
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 3: in that five to one defeat, Michael, is that Brighton

691
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 3: they took twenty four shots, controlled seventy eight percent possession

692
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 3: and they created three point two expected goals. That was

693
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 3: their fifth best output on Deservee during the entire season.

694
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 3: Like the average in defense wasn't really that good. They

695
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 3: got penetrated multiple times, similar to and I know that

696
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 3: Brighton over the weekend in a bad spot against Fulham

697
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 3: did not have a good performance. But they were penetrating

698
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 3: the box very very well against Fulham and were getting

699
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 3: good chances. They just weren't getting good shots on the

700
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 3: end of them, ended up only creating one point four

701
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 3: expected goals. But now that Brighton is out of the

702
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 3: League Cup, they had a full week of rest. You'll

703
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 3: see a full strength Brighton lineup on Saturday against Everton

704
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 3: and Brighton, you know even if Everton decides to sit back,

705
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 3: even if Everton says, you know what, Brighton's trying to

706
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 3: bait us, so we're not gonna take the bait. We're

707
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 3: gonna sit in the mid block, similar to what we

708
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 3: did last season, try to get turnovers around the midway

709
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: line or even in our own final third, and then

710
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 3: try to hit them in transition. That way, Brighton is

711
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 3: one of the best teams, not only but in the

712
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:33,320
Speaker 3: world at breaking down low blocks. I mean the positioning

713
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 3: of the wingers, whether it's you know, Matoma or if

714
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 3: it's solidi March or in Drina, it's it's really really

715
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 3: good what they're able to do so against I as

716
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 3: when they were trying to play five at the back,

717
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 3: Matoba and a Drinker both went centrally and they forced

718
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 3: and pinned i Ax in and then allowed the fullbacks

719
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 3: to overlap and create a bunch of chances. Very crosses

720
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 3: that way, or we're just basically playing through balls right

721
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 3: through their defense, and i Ax is in a very

722
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,319
Speaker 3: very bad spot right now. But over the weekend gets

723
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 3: full on. Matoma was playing out wide and they were

724
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 3: just getting even one on ones the entire time. He

725
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 3: kept penetrating the box that way. So the question is

726
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 3: is that can't Everton defend that. I'm not so sure

727
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 3: that they can. And even if you know Brighton, they

728
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 3: obviously love to overload the middle of the pitch to

729
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 3: get Matoema in those one on once. Uh, it's a

730
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 3: very very dangerous game to play against them. Brighton second

731
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 3: best final third to box entry conversion rate, which is

732
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 3: very very impressive for a team that gets a lot

733
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 3: of final third entries like they do. But Brighton as

734
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 3: always and still is very very vulnerable in transition. They've

735
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 3: switched their build up to a three two five instead

736
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 3: of a four to two four because they were getting

737
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 3: just trucked through the middle of the pitch in transition moments.

738
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 3: So they've basically added a little bit more into the

739
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 3: middle of the pitch to help them when they're you know, uh,

740
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:53,879
Speaker 3: when teams are going at them when they lose the ball.

741
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 3: But I mean, this is the arts and offense, Michael,

742
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 3: this is a juggernaut. They're facing one point five or

743
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 3: non penalty actually for ninety minutes. That is ninth in

744
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 3: the Premier League. But again, like we've talked about, there's

745
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 3: so many offensive minded teams now that one point five

746
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,919
Speaker 3: to four is ninth in the Premier League. So that's

747
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 3: a really really good output for Everton. And you know,

748
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,720
Speaker 3: if you take if you take off the matches against

749
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 3: Liverpool and against Arsenal, Everton has carried over one expectacle

750
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 3: in six of the other eight matches. So again, even

751
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 3: if Everton decides to sit off, I don't think they're

752
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 3: good enough defensively in a low block against Brighton, but

753
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 3: they are incredibly dangerous in transition against Brighton. So I'm

754
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 3: expecting chaos here. I think you will see a bit

755
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 3: of a slow match to begin. I think that Everton

756
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 3: won't take the bait, similar to how kind of the

757
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 3: Fulham match started, where Brighton's just passing them all back

758
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: and forth between their center backs. But eventually someone will

759
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 3: get impatient, someone will take a chance, and that's when

760
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 3: chaos can happen. Yeah.

761
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 2: I mean Everton didn't really show much interest in attacking

762
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 2: against west Ham. That's they've done that a couple of

763
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 2: times this year, where they're just like, yeah, we're just

764
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 2: not going to attack. They could try that again. I

765
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 2: agree with b to though won't work. It's funny we

766
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 2: talked about Balaba a couple of weeks ago. He's coming

767
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 2: in and he is good, and I said, you know,

768
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:08,800
Speaker 2: he's really going to stabilize the defense, and their defense

769
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 2: has played better the last few matches. I thought they

770
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 2: played well against City for most part, except for the

771
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 2: Milner versus Doku situation out wide. I thought they played

772
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 2: pretty well against Fulm. They end up conceding a goal.

773
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: They haven't kept a clean sheet all year. Problem, But

774
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 2: you know point seven x G. It wasn't a bad

775
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 2: defens or performance. Fulham didn't create a ton They dominated

776
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 2: i ACS. So you know, as Balaba's played more minutes

777
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 2: and then you pull up the shot chart against Fulham

778
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 2: and you're like, oh, Baliba, the guy who's supposed to

779
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 2: be the defense in midfielder, actually took four shots. Yep,

780
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 2: hilarious peak Deserve me. Somebody tweeted at me that this

781
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 2: is my Darby. You know, we love these teams. As

782
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 2: a result, I'm actually higher than the market on both

783
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 2: and think that the line's actually right me too, So

784
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 2: I don't have a bet here actually, so I'll be passing.

785
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 2: But I'm most excited of all the matches this weekend.

786
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: I'm most excited to watch this one just from a

787
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 2: tactical matchup and how both managers will approach it. I

788
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 2: think there's more to learn about it than maybe the

789
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 2: you know, obviously the two big fixtures being what they are.

790
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 1: The uh I just said how the nil nail for

791
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 1: Burnley and Palace is sitting at seven to one, frightened

792
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 1: evidence fourteen to one.

793
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 2: Okay, fourteen to one is not even close to good night?

794
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 3: If yeah, say just give me t give me maybe

795
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 3: if we get twenty five, maybe.

796
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 1: Twenty to one and maybe uh all right, City and

797
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: Borne myth now Citizens are the biggest favorite on the

798
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 1: board their minus one thousand, Bournemouth sixteen to one, and

799
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: the draw here is nine to one. This one, like

800
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 1: every bit of me thinks this is just one way

801
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 1: traffic and City can name it, and you should.

802
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 3: I would.

803
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: The only thing I'd be semi interested in playing would

804
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 1: be uh team total over like three and a half.

805
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 1: But I'd also think like this could be our eight

806
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: nothing game on the season, right, there's one every year

807
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 1: and this one kind of has the right recipes for it.

808
00:39:55,880 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 1: BJ it is, I mean, you're all he'd lives and

809
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: dies by his hybrid press and that's not going.

810
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 3: To change against Manchester City. You've seen it against the

811
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 3: top teams this season. They've got played off the park

812
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 3: and I really really worry what's going to happen to

813
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 3: Bournemouth here. If they continually try to press high and

814
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 3: disrupt Cities build up play, they could pick them up,

815
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 3: pick City off and maybe get one transition goal. That's

816
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: like the only chance they have here. But outside of that,

817
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: it's going to be one way traffic and I really

818
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 3: just don't see a scenario where they're going to even

819
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 3: if they try to. Their team is not set up

820
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 3: to sit in and try to defend. They're going to

821
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 3: be missing a few guys here that are pretty important.

822
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 3: You know, Lewis Cook got suspended in the last match obviously,

823
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 3: Tyler Adams has been out for a long time and

824
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 3: they're on a backup goalkeeper right now because Neto is

825
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 3: out and the back of goalkeeper is pretty bad if

826
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 3: you've watched the last few matches, So really really bad

827
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 3: situation here for Bournemouth could get out of hand. I'm

828
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:04,360
Speaker 3: passing on it. I just you know, City obviously in

829
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 3: a lookhead spot when you know facing I guess it

830
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 3: is young boys in the Champions at home, So I

831
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 3: don't really it's.

832
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 2: They go off. Maybe they do. Yeah, the thing is right,

833
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: Like so City, you can tell a lot about how

834
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 2: they play their lineup. If they're putting greenish Endoku out there,

835
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 2: they're just like going full board tilt and uh, Bournemouth

836
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 2: has no chance in that matchup. They like you said,

837
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,280
Speaker 2: they could steal a goal. It's it's still ninety minutes

838
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 2: of soccer. But City appears to have you know, PEP

839
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 2: has responded to how poor they were in those three

840
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 2: straight matches from an xt cheap perspective against Wolves and

841
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 2: against Arsenal and then against Brighton and they just completely

842
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 2: pumped young boys and destroyed United in the second half.

843
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 1: Okay, we're gonna do it now, Sheffield United time baby.

844
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 3: Oh Man plus two eighty.

845
00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 1: At home against Wolverhampton odds on minus one oh six

846
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,800
Speaker 1: on the road here in the draws plus two forty.

847
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 1: And I think we are we kind of trend towards

848
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: being a Wolve's podcast more than not being a Wolve's podcast.

849
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 1: So the fact that we're saying here that you know this,

850
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 1: this line looks a little crazy shouldn't be taken you

851
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 1: know all that light like this isn't last year's Wolves team.

852
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 2: They are last week.

853
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 1: Yeah they are. Wolves are, by the way, or one

854
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: of four teams in the Premier League with the same

855
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 1: exact record win, draw loss, which is kind of funny,

856
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 1: three three and four, along with Chelsea Palace and Folam

857
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 1: minus four point seven expect a gold differential overall, not

858
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 1: good light years better than Sheffield United, which is bottom

859
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: of the barrel. Basically everything every number you look at

860
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: this Premier League season, minus sixteen expected gold differential. They

861
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 1: are creating less way less than one a game.

862
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 3: It's so ugly BJ.

863
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: But it's just the numbers thing, like, yeah, this is

864
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 1: too this numbers, it's too hot, the numbers too high,

865
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 1: like going to go against Wolves or if that makes sense, right,

866
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: Like I'm getting a good enough number to go against

867
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: Wolves on the road, is what I'm trying to say.

868
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean the big talking point here is

869
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 3: obviously Pedro NATO's out for this match for Wolves, which

870
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 3: is I mean, he can you can make the argument

871
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 3: he's maybe the most important player to player to a

872
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 3: single team so far this season.

873
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 2: We haven't said that a few weeks bring that one back.

874
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, now we're back. Let's just run through the numbers

875
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 3: right now. Carries into the penalty area Pedro Nato twenty four.

876
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 3: Next closest is Kunia with eight passes into the penalty

877
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 3: area Pedro Nato twenty Next closest Tomato with nine uh

878
00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:00,720
Speaker 3: hey passes Peedro Nato twenty five. Next close, Next closest

879
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 3: Kunya with eight. I mean he's got they just got

880
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 3: seven assists on the season already. It's crazy. How good

881
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 3: he's it. Oh good, he's been so without him, where's

882
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 3: gonna be the creative aspect against a a Sheffield United

883
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 3: team that Michael. They're so bad, they really are. But

884
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 3: they weren't that bad against me. It just United. They

885
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 3: weren't that bad anything. They weren't that bad for good stretches.

886
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 3: Against Arsenal. What they've done is they've switched to a

887
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 3: four to four to two. They said the three five

888
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 3: to two ain't working, so let's go to four four

889
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 3: to two. They were condensed in the space in mid lines.

890
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 3: They were like, Garsenal's not playing through the middle of

891
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 3: the pitch. Well yeah, eventually Arsenal got through. But again,

892
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 3: if they're going to take away the sunch parts of

893
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 3: the pitch and they're going to play that four four

894
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 3: two and they're gonna let the Wolves have the ball

895
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 3: in wide areas and Paedri Natel's not there, then who's

896
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 3: scoring for Wolves?

897
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 2: Now?

898
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 3: Hwang has been it's been the.

899
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 1: Main player in the world.

900
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 3: But who's been feeding him everything? So yeah, yeah, So

901
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 3: it's it's uh, it's a Sheffield United spot. It's about as.

902
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 2: Okay, how are we not on the under?

903
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 3: It's about as gross.

904
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 2: How are we not on the under?

905
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 3: Because their defense is so bad?

906
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 1: It really is.

907
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 2: Are they gonna outscore? Are they gonna go score up

908
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 2: like they started Rihann Brewster against Arsenal last week. He's terrible.

909
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 2: That was the main guy. Yeah yeah, I like under

910
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 2: two and a half? Right is that not better than

911
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: plus a half? Like, I I don't know, Like in

912
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 2: what world is is like Sheffield's going multiple times Everton?

913
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they better, I mean I mean they

914
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: have I was looking at it earlier. I mean they

915
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:46,799
Speaker 3: have actually scored in all but is scoredon six their

916
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 3: four matches or six of their ten excuse me, six

917
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:53,439
Speaker 3: of their ten matches. They just didn't score against west

918
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:55,320
Speaker 3: Ham Newcastle Arsenal and Crystal Palace.

919
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:56,760
Speaker 2: Those are pretty good defenses.

920
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:58,439
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, this team could score.

921
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 3: They haven't created over one point I mean with a

922
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 3: penalty against United was one point four is their best

923
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 3: output this season so far.

924
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 2: So they have not cleared one non penalty expected goal

925
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 2: all season.

926
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 3: Against Everton they did. I was only that in west

927
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 3: Ham were the only two times they've cleared one non penalty.

928
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 2: So it's not it's not good, but again should have

929
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 2: scored again. How back by the way west Ham's defense

930
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 2: giving up that much to to Sheffield, I think we

931
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 2: all met them that game and they should have covered

932
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,360
Speaker 2: and didn't. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

933
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:28,439
Speaker 3: So yeah at home this is the spot, Michael. They've

934
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 3: and uh let's see, Sheffield's got Brighton coming up on

935
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 3: the road next. That could be really bad.

936
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 2: They'll score on that one. Everybody scores on Brighton.

937
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 3: That's true. They got and then they got Bournemouth and

938
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 3: Burnley after that, so wow.

939
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 1: Another money.

940
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 2: Schedule to adjust their numbers and there.

941
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 3: At least at least and then after and then after

942
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 3: and Burnley, they got Liverpool, Brentford, Chelsea, Aston.

943
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 1: Villa, so uh, good lord, all right, this.

944
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 3: Might be it for heck heck hecking bottom though this

945
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,359
Speaker 3: could be it for him. Maybe that why couldn't they

946
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 3: fire him before this match?

947
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 1: We get you want to bounce now, you want you

948
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 1: want the first. You want to them to win one

949
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 1: for the gaffer, just like United. You can make a

950
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: little win one for the gaffer. Parlay there all right,

951
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,439
Speaker 1: So it looks like Blade's Anthony maybe on the under

952
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 1: for that one. Let's go to Forest and Villa now

953
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 1: Force plus three twenty at home Aiston Villa odds on

954
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 1: at on the road minus tent eighteen and the draws

955
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 1: plus two sixty. This is a great place to bet,

956
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 1: Nottingham Force. This is a good number, Anthony.

957
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's make it two straight weeks on the Forest.

958
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, your boys, the tricky trees. Baby. I think Aston

959
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 1: Villa's numbers look better of late, but it's ten matches

960
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 1: into the season and the defense still leaks like it's

961
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,799
Speaker 1: or overall has been leaky. Their expectacle differential should put

962
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 1: them a little bit closer to mid table than fifth.

963
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 1: We kind of saw this song and dance since Emery

964
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 1: took over last year, so maybe I'm underrating Villa and

965
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 1: just I mean, we love the guy for the run

966
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 1: he gave us with Via Real a couple of years

967
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 1: ago in the Champions League. And he's a great manager.

968
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 1: I just think when your defense looks like this, it's

969
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 1: makes you a little vulnerable as a as this big

970
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: a favorite on the road against Nottingham Forest team that's winless.

971
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: Uh what since the last international break, right like five

972
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: five five?

973
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and uh unbeaten in five.

974
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: Yeah. This is if you if you had to make

975
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 1: a buy sell high one on one, this is the

976
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: one and uh, you're gonna need force to score like

977
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 1: they don't they don't do that all that often. Yeah,

978
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 1: that's the key here. I think he still leads them

979
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 1: in goals with three and uh yeah with with the

980
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 1: way Villa defense, like, I think they have a chance to,

981
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: uh to be dangerous here.

982
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 2: It's just it is for it is.

983
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: It is a little ugly with just three goals scored

984
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 1: and there there lest in that last five and seven

985
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 1: goals scored excusually five goal scored in there last seven.

986
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 1: It's over last eight. It's they don't score much. But

987
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 1: with Tywo back a little more teeth than this offense, baby,

988
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:15,359
Speaker 1: not tree Woods down. True, we love Chris Wood, though,

989
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: I'm so happy he's still kicking around.

990
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 2: So Tywo comes back. And the thing that Tywo does

991
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 2: is he gets a couple of very high quality shots

992
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 2: every match, and they usually come in transition. He gets

993
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 2: in behind the defense, uh and he's able to shoot.

994
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: His average shot doesn't this year nine yards. It's one

995
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 2: of the lowest in the Premier League. And anybody who

996
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 2: takes a regular number of shots, well that's basically Villa's problem.

997
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 2: They conceded the third fewest shots in the league, which generally,

998
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 2: I would say volume matters more in terms of predictiveness

999
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 2: than quality. You can concede a couple of fluke high,

1000
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 2: big scoring chances, but if you're you're not con seeing

1001
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 2: a lot of shots. Generally, I think that makes you

1002
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 2: a good defense who had a couple of bad breaks.

1003
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 2: But when you watch Villa play, it's very obvious what's happening,

1004
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 2: and it's this suicide idle high line with very average defenders,

1005
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:04,479
Speaker 2: and they can see the third few of shots because

1006
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 2: they catch people off sides a lot, and they don't

1007
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 2: give you a ton of possession in their final third.

1008
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 2: But when they do give up the chances, they tend

1009
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 2: to be one on ones, and that's where Tybal I

1010
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 2: think is really good. And I think that's where Gibs White.

1011
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 2: You know, when you're playing Villa, you need a guy

1012
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 2: who can pick the pass. When they play the top

1013
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 2: teams like Newcastle and Liverpool, who have you know, Gimea

1014
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 2: Race and tren Alex and Arnold and they can you know,

1015
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 2: runners in behind at all times. It is very easy

1016
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 2: to get in. Even Wolves created almost two xg against

1017
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 2: them with Nato running his magic. And I think the

1018
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 2: Trees have that guy. It's Gibbs White. So look, the

1019
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 2: Trees are good Night and Day from last year twentieth

1020
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 2: and pass per defensive action twentieth in final third entries allowed.

1021
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 2: They're gonna let Villa have the ball. But we've gone

1022
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 2: from Villa closing minus one twenty at home against Everton

1023
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 2: to now being minus one twenty five on the road

1024
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 2: at Forest. That's a pretty big upgrade given that the

1025
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 2: market's pretty comparable on Everton and Forest coming into the season.

1026
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 2: So market likes Villa. I'm kind of a little more skeptical,

1027
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:04,800
Speaker 2: just like you said, their defense leaks so many big chances.

1028
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 2: If you take the first one, they're up against it.

1029
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, trees plus a half.

1030
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 1: Come on, BJ, I'm passing.

1031
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 3: The thing with aston Villa is, if you truly dig

1032
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 3: into why they overperformed last season, it was performances against

1033
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 3: teams in the top half where they overperformed. All their

1034
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 3: expected metrics ran very good, but when they played against

1035
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 3: teams like Nottingham Forest in the bottom at the table,

1036
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 3: they cooked them repeatedly. So you know, I projected aston

1037
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 3: Villa pretty close to around where they are here in

1038
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 3: the market. Passive teams really worry me with aston Villa

1039
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 3: because they are good and build up like They're not

1040
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 3: an elite and build up, but they are good and

1041
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 3: they are pretty good at breaking down these teams that

1042
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 3: want to play low blocks. Now, I know it's not

1043
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 3: a good comparison, but I mean they have consistently been

1044
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 3: putting up over one expected goal against these teams that

1045
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 3: are playing somewhat or some type of a low block.

1046
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 3: You know, against Crystal Palace, I know a lot of

1047
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:04,480
Speaker 3: it came late, that was a box, It's still created

1048
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 3: three expected goals. Well's one point half Loot and Town

1049
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:14,879
Speaker 3: a great defense that we'll talk about next two point three. Yeah,

1050
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 3: I mean I understand that Nottingham Forest is kind of

1051
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 3: trying to get into this Brentford mold of just like, hey,

1052
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 3: you can get in the final third, but you're not

1053
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 3: gonna get in our penalty area. Yeah, it's just I'm

1054
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 3: just gonna avoid it. Okay, that brings us to I'm

1055
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 3: gonna I'll let you I'll let you know. I'll watch it.

1056
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 3: I'll watch nodding and force win one. Nothing. I won't

1057
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 3: cry over it.

1058
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 1: I'll well, you're gonna you're gonna have a you'll have

1059
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 1: a piece of Nottingham Forest because uh, and we'll get

1060
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 1: to that Tralor in the show.

1061
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:41,800
Speaker 3: Uh. Thing is gonna win this week.

1062
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:48,240
Speaker 1: Loot and Town nine to one at home hosting Liverpool

1063
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 1: minus four hundred and the draw is five to one

1064
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 1: Looten Town. I think we were giving we've given them credit,

1065
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 1: maybe more credit than most other folks do. Feisty bunch.

1066
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,759
Speaker 1: The hatters are and you know, as we've kind of

1067
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 1: said a few times now, clearly not the worst team

1068
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 1: in in the Premier League as we expect them to be.

1069
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 1: They might not even be like one of the bottom

1070
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 1: three just overall. Right now, So does that mean that

1071
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: they're going to put on a show against Liverpool, I

1072
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 1: don't think so. The numbers not high enough even at

1073
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 1: home for.

1074
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 3: Me break My break is going to extend for another

1075
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 3: week and might be the best team in the league.

1076
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 3: They might be. Graven Burke in there makes them a

1077
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 3: lot better, a lot better at defending teams in transition.

1078
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,799
Speaker 3: Curtis Jones, is he back this match or the next one?

1079
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:44,359
Speaker 3: I can't remember which one? I don't know, I mean,

1080
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 3: but my point is they have options now, whereas in

1081
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 3: the beginning season they didn't have options, so or at

1082
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 3: least they didn't play those options. So I was going

1083
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 3: to make a case for both teams to score at

1084
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 3: minus won twenty. The price a little juicy because if

1085
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 3: you really think about what Lutontown is or how they

1086
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,719
Speaker 3: create their chances, it's just crosses, just getting the ball

1087
00:54:05,719 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 3: out wide. And since Liverpool is not allowing central progression

1088
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 3: with graven Brook in there, and with the way they

1089
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:13,360
Speaker 3: build up the way they invert Trent Alexander Arnold like,

1090
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 3: there is space available in wide areas. But given what

1091
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:21,440
Speaker 3: Nottingham Forests, the performance they had against Liverpool, that makes

1092
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 3: me very very skeptical because they play a very similar

1093
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:27,360
Speaker 3: style to that of Luton Town, so breaking is extending

1094
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 3: another week Lowtontown in their next match. You guys want

1095
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,240
Speaker 3: to take a guess who they're playing. Go for it United,

1096
00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 3: yep at Old Trafford and we're gonna get Lolutontown Michael

1097
00:54:38,040 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 3: at ten to one. United's minas three seventy five.

1098
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 2: Ye sign me after that please? Yep?

1099
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 1: Uh okay, that's the Premier League done and dusted onto

1100
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 1: uh europe Large Bundesliga, Anthony, What do you got?

1101
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:56,399
Speaker 2: We got a big one this weekend? Do the fraud Bowl?

1102
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 2: Fourth best team in the league. Maybe Byron versus Dortmund

1103
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:04,720
Speaker 2: their classy Kerr as they call it in the States.

1104
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 2: It's a terrible nickname. I mean, look, we got to

1105
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 2: talk about Byron again because they lost today to sire

1106
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:15,960
Speaker 2: Bruckin and a third division German team who closed fifty

1107
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 2: to one. Byron started seven of their eleven normal starters

1108
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 2: in the game, created less than one expected goal, lost

1109
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 2: two to one in stoppage time, and am i mad

1110
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 2: I didn't bet sire Bruckin. Yes, but like it's just

1111
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 2: another data point this team. Yes, they scored one hundred

1112
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 2: and ten goals against Darmstadt, who was down to nine

1113
00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 2: men early in the second half last week, Sorry you

1114
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:38,760
Speaker 2: bet Darmstadt.

1115
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 1: I know, I know.

1116
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 2: Our friend friend of the pod h u Kapper, was

1117
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 2: feeling real good about Darmstad plus three when they were

1118
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 2: up a man five minutes into the patch and I

1119
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,839
Speaker 2: was like, oh, you're golden. And then they got two

1120
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 2: red cards and gave up eight goals and the second half,

1121
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 2: so I don't care how many they put up. One

1122
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 2: hundred and ten xg and one hundred and ten goals

1123
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 2: on Darmstadt and the Bundesliga. Like, you play all your

1124
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 2: starters against that team who's fifteenth in the third division,

1125
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 2: you lose to them after you have a shit game

1126
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:10,959
Speaker 2: against Galatasarai. Mines has had one good game in a month,

1127
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 2: and it came against Byron. Copenhagen played them off the

1128
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 2: park for like an hour. Galatasara, I played him off

1129
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 2: the park for an hour. Man United, you had like

1130
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:20,440
Speaker 2: one of their best stretches of the season in the

1131
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:24,480
Speaker 2: first half against Byron. Like this is getting weird and

1132
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 2: I want to bet against them. I think there's gonna

1133
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 2: be value in going against Byron every game until the

1134
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:31,320
Speaker 2: market correct for the fact that they're just not the

1135
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:33,720
Speaker 2: same team, and look, I know their numbers in Germany

1136
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 2: are really good. I think Germany's down. I'm kind of

1137
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 2: down on Dortmund. I'm reevaluating my priors on Leipzig and

1138
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,279
Speaker 2: even that second tier like the Europus level teams don't

1139
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 2: look great to me on paper. But this Byron team

1140
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 2: is not right. And you could say, oh, they're gonna

1141
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 2: be angry now, bounce back bad loss. I mean it's

1142
00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:52,440
Speaker 2: the biggest match of the season for them, so yeah,

1143
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 2: I expect them to be up, but I don't think

1144
00:56:54,120 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 2: that that good. And when the game has gotten for

1145
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 2: netic like it did against Galatasarai, they were getting out

1146
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 2: played and Dorman is very comfortable in that kind of game.

1147
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 2: Dortmund is not going to come out here and sit.

1148
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 2: Byron has not been good at keeping control of games,

1149
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 2: and so when they turn that dial toward like let's cook,

1150
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 2: they have just gotten cooked. So yeah, give me Dortmann

1151
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 2: plus a half and then I do like the mines

1152
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:18,720
Speaker 2: Leipzig under as well. Three goals. Leipzig gifts has had

1153
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 2: a historic, historic run of overperformance. They're not getting great

1154
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 2: shot volume or shot quality. They're they're bottom three in

1155
00:57:25,160 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 2: shot distance. You know, the packing shots for they're x

1156
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 2: G in in even game states is below one point

1157
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:34,080
Speaker 2: three p ninety. Their actual goals is like two for ninety,

1158
00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 2: so they run really good early. But I think Mines

1159
00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 2: will shure up the defense. There is no saving right now.

1160
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 2: It looks like this Mine's attack though. Eight point six

1161
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 2: x G in the Bundesliga after nine matches. That's a

1162
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:50,120
Speaker 2: really really shame. So I like the under three goals

1163
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 2: in that one at Mines. I think they have a

1164
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:54,720
Speaker 2: good defensive performance, but they can't score so under what

1165
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 2: do you got, Bjay?

1166
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 3: How about the Friday afternoon kickoff? Hokom darnstock one can't

1167
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 3: They just mentioned over three goals a plus one ten

1168
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:06,600
Speaker 3: two of the worst defensive teams in the Bundesliga. Both

1169
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 3: of them are sitting bottom three four. The thing about

1170
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 3: it is both of them are very direct, transitional type

1171
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 3: teams really want to get out and play. So typically

1172
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 3: when a match like that happens, you know teams that

1173
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 3: aren't good defensively in whatever type of defensive shape they

1174
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:22,560
Speaker 3: want to play, and they want to play transitionally. It

1175
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 3: usually leads to a very end to end style match,

1176
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 3: and I think that's what you'll see here, so projected

1177
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:31,960
Speaker 3: three point two goals, so over three a plus one

1178
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 3: ten for the Friday afternoon kickoff team Bochum and Darmstadt

1179
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 3: is good enough for me. The two guys that got

1180
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 3: suspended for both for Darmstadt against Bayron for one of

1181
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 3: their center backs and defensive mids so also make them

1182
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 3: more vulnerable defensively.

1183
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 1: And you are the only one with a play in Syria.

1184
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 3: Ah, Anthony's gonna hate this play. Pick them, pick them,

1185
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 3: event just pick them at Fiorentina. I think event this

1186
00:58:57,640 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 3: is good again, I agree. I think the process numbers

1187
00:58:59,880 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 3: are good now for them, and I think this is

1188
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 3: a good spot to back them. I think they should

1189
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 3: be a a pretty odds on favorite here against Fiorentina,

1190
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 3: who is having good process numbers. But if you dig

1191
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:15,720
Speaker 3: a little bit deeper, they really are not the team

1192
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 3: that they were that underperformed last season. Like, yes, they're

1193
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 3: still have good expected threat numbers, still good field tilt numbers,

1194
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 3: still causing a lot of high turnovers, but they're thirteenth

1195
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:29,840
Speaker 3: in expectacles for thirteenth against and they are allowing teams

1196
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 3: to kind of play through them a little bit. And

1197
00:59:31,960 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 3: Uventus listen this is what's gonna happen with Legri. They

1198
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:38,160
Speaker 3: are as passive as passive guests. They will let you

1199
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 3: literally just walk into the final third without any type

1200
00:59:41,560 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 3: of pressure whatsoever because they're seventeenth and final third entries allowed.

1201
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 3: But once you get there, you're not getting in their

1202
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:49,000
Speaker 3: penalty year and you certainly aren't creating a big scoring

1203
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:53,000
Speaker 3: chance against them. Juventus is allowing point six y four

1204
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 3: non penalty x sheep for ninety this season. That is,

1205
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 3: I believe the best in all of Europe so far

1206
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 3: through ten matches. I get it. They have not played

1207
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 3: a very difficult schedule. They played Milan up a man

1208
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 3: for most of that match, so it has been pretty

1209
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 3: favorable here for them. But when you look at what

1210
01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 3: Fiorentina's schedule has looked like they were off this week,

1211
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 3: but they've also had europe A Conference League duties that

1212
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:16,200
Speaker 3: they've had to attend to. Uventus has just been gearing

1213
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 3: up and playing in Syria the entire season. And the

1214
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:21,919
Speaker 3: offensive numbers are pretty good too. I mean they're third

1215
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:26,160
Speaker 3: inexpected goals four, So I think this events team is

1216
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 3: pretty good and I think that the numbers are showing

1217
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 3: that they're returning to some of the event as teams

1218
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 3: that we're used to, not necessarily dominating Syria, but being

1219
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 3: a title contender and not a sixth or seventh best

1220
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 3: team like they've have been for many years now. So

1221
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:45,160
Speaker 3: Uventustronto bett at minus one twenty actually projected them at

1222
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 3: minus one ten against Fiorentina here, who have had some

1223
01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 3: pretty fraudulent results when you look back in their last

1224
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 3: two Siria matches have been pretty bad as well.

1225
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Alazzio getting a ninety fifth minute penalty to beat

1226
01:00:56,240 --> 01:01:01,760
Speaker 2: them on Monday. Yes to Federico Kia pretty good.

1227
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 3: Yes, decent season.

1228
01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Keane's been good.

1229
01:01:06,600 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 3: Kostitch has been great as well.

1230
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 1: Uh and you guys are on the same team in

1231
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:12,680
Speaker 1: uh in La Liga Anthony.

1232
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:16,600
Speaker 2: The nobody in Europe is running worse than this Vego team. Yeah,

1233
01:01:16,600 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 2: I mean it's unbelievable. They play Real Madrid, they get

1234
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 2: a goal of vart Off because Keppa Keppa stinks, but

1235
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 2: because the guy like briefly touched his shirt, they overturned

1236
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 2: the goal that would have put them up one nill

1237
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:32,320
Speaker 2: inside five minutes. They lead to nil at Barsa and

1238
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 2: h Barcia goes god mode. For like five minutes and

1239
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 2: scores three bangers on him. They play Yourna, they get

1240
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 2: a goal varred off which the goalie drops the ball

1241
01:01:44,120 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 2: and then the player runs into him after the ball

1242
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 2: has already passed him and they call it a foul.

1243
01:01:49,440 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 2: That was bizarre. And then they can see in stoppage

1244
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 2: time on a shot from outside the penalty area to

1245
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 2: lose to Girona. And they've had three goals that have

1246
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 2: cost them points directly, just vart off. Nobody's running worse

1247
01:02:02,160 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 2: now they get severe at home. They're a pick them.

1248
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 2: They're better than Sevilla Vigo baby round. I found me

1249
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:09,600
Speaker 2: how many times I bet this team. I never actually

1250
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:10,240
Speaker 2: win their bets.

1251
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:10,680
Speaker 3: Uh.

1252
01:02:10,800 --> 01:02:12,960
Speaker 2: They also lost to last promise and stoppage time after

1253
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:14,920
Speaker 2: a dodgy pen in the last kick of the game.

1254
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 2: So uh, nobody's running worse than me betting Vigo, So

1255
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 2: let's keep doing it.

1256
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:21,920
Speaker 3: Join you.

1257
01:02:22,640 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 2: Well, I forgot Vigo dominating Adletti red card. That's a

1258
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 2: little bit on their own.

1259
01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:31,640
Speaker 3: But then they got stoppage time against Yourna last weekend.

1260
01:02:32,120 --> 01:02:33,840
Speaker 2: No team in the no team in Europe has cost

1261
01:02:33,920 --> 01:02:36,160
Speaker 2: me more money than this team. I've been getting killed

1262
01:02:36,200 --> 01:02:38,800
Speaker 2: in Spain because of them. So let's keep going baby.

1263
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:42,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, for those who don't know, I don't

1264
01:02:42,600 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 3: know if anything has already mentioned it, but if you're unaware,

1265
01:02:45,520 --> 01:02:48,680
Speaker 3: Ralpha Benitez is managing South of Vigo right now, and

1266
01:02:48,800 --> 01:02:51,560
Speaker 3: they are playing as passive as passive yeats out of possession.

1267
01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:56,240
Speaker 3: So they are gonna let Sevilla get the ball and

1268
01:02:56,280 --> 01:02:58,040
Speaker 3: wide areas and try to cross the ball in and

1269
01:02:58,120 --> 01:03:00,640
Speaker 3: they've been very good at defending those, and then they've

1270
01:03:00,680 --> 01:03:02,680
Speaker 3: been very good in transition offense as well. And that's

1271
01:03:02,680 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 3: how you beat this to be a team is that

1272
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:07,400
Speaker 3: they're very good. They are a very good team. They've

1273
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 3: drastically underperformed. So I'm going to join Anthony on the

1274
01:03:11,520 --> 01:03:14,000
Speaker 3: losing train now. I've avoided a lot of them early,

1275
01:03:14,280 --> 01:03:15,640
Speaker 3: so I'm gonna join.

1276
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 2: No time, This is the time to back Vego bj

1277
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 2: just coming in to save me. You might have to

1278
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:25,320
Speaker 2: Martin Gale. Them have to start in Martindale. Anthony's drowning

1279
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 2: and I'm jumping in without a life jacket on.

1280
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:28,400
Speaker 3: I'm trying to say.

1281
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 2: I'm drowning, that's for sure.

1282
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'll just I'll hop in there.

1283
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 3: How can you not back Rafa?

1284
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 1: Yeah's legal.

1285
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 3: Speaking of Bilows, Leon five, good luck boy. So for

1286
01:03:49,920 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 3: those who are unaware Leone, who is historically probably the

1287
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 3: second or third biggest club in France. Uh, they're in

1288
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:01,480
Speaker 3: last place right now and these are getting really, really bad.

1289
01:04:01,520 --> 01:04:03,480
Speaker 3: If you saw what happened over the weekend, what happened

1290
01:04:03,480 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 3: to their coach Frabrio Grosa and had the Marseille match postponed.

1291
01:04:06,920 --> 01:04:08,600
Speaker 3: You can just go look it up. It's it's bad.

1292
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,200
Speaker 2: But the fans hit him in the head with the rock.

1293
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:13,400
Speaker 3: It's bad.

1294
01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:14,960
Speaker 2: He was bleeding from his head.

1295
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 3: He was You can go look it up. It's really bid.

1296
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 2: But it's freaking insane, insane. But people say is crazy.

1297
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, these the French fans, they're crazy. But I think

1298
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:34,960
Speaker 3: this is a good Boilaw opportunity because they are playing

1299
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:38,800
Speaker 3: for my money. Probably the worst talent, the least talented

1300
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:41,680
Speaker 3: team in France by far, it's Mets, who just got promoted.

1301
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:45,240
Speaker 3: The underlying numbers for Mets. Offensively they're dead last and everything.

1302
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 3: They are a terrible, terrible offensive team. And defensively they

1303
01:04:49,120 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 3: just play this low block and they're pretty effective at

1304
01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 3: not allowing people in their penalty air. But they're just

1305
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:56,360
Speaker 3: allowing so many final third entries and the process numbers.

1306
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 3: It's not like Leone is just I mean, yes, they

1307
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:01,800
Speaker 3: have a minus run eight expecting goal differential, but the

1308
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:04,439
Speaker 3: last two matches they've won the expect XG battle haven't

1309
01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:07,240
Speaker 3: got the result they deserve. If you look at their

1310
01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:09,920
Speaker 3: offensive numbers, there's still sixth and final third entries, seventh

1311
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:12,640
Speaker 3: and shots third and final third to box entry conversion

1312
01:05:12,720 --> 01:05:16,640
Speaker 3: rate like, it's still decent process numbers. And then defensively

1313
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 3: they're dead laughs in terms of expected goal is allowed.

1314
01:05:19,880 --> 01:05:23,120
Speaker 3: But in this match they are a decent pressing team.

1315
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:26,480
Speaker 3: They are going against a team that's the worst team

1316
01:05:26,640 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 3: at playing through pressure that basically only creates anything in transition.

1317
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:32,080
Speaker 3: So this line probably would have been minus two to

1318
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 3: fifty if the season started right now, and all this

1319
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:37,160
Speaker 3: stuff hasn't happened to laone, So I think we're getting

1320
01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:40,400
Speaker 3: a decent price on them. I projected them at minus

1321
01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 3: one eighty, so they have the rest advantage, as you know,

1322
01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 3: as terrible as it sounds, but they do have a

1323
01:05:47,680 --> 01:05:49,760
Speaker 3: rest advantage. To'll be a third straight home match, so

1324
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:53,760
Speaker 3: it's a good spot for layone to get things going

1325
01:05:53,800 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 3: in the right direction.

1326
01:05:55,240 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Leal again because I bet Leal every week.

1327
01:05:58,240 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 2: Lela is lela is to me what fading Sourningitana is

1328
01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:04,680
Speaker 2: to BJ and Siria. But yeah, I mean I bet

1329
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 2: them last week against Monaco. I thought that was a

1330
01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 2: good bye by low Sell High. This legal defense is

1331
01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 2: much better than the Marseille one. Marseilles defensive numbers, their

1332
01:06:13,680 --> 01:06:15,880
Speaker 2: fourth and and non penalty expected goals. It looks great

1333
01:06:15,880 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 2: at the surface, but if you look deeper, very mediocre

1334
01:06:19,960 --> 01:06:23,400
Speaker 2: from a ball progression allowed and from a field tilt perspective.

1335
01:06:23,520 --> 01:06:26,520
Speaker 2: So I'm kind of down on this Marseille team overall.

1336
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:28,360
Speaker 2: And you know, I know we bet them to win

1337
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 2: the league last I bet them win the league last year.

1338
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:33,000
Speaker 2: But they have not a mistake taking a step forward

1339
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:33,480
Speaker 2: at all.

1340
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:37,680
Speaker 1: Okay, underdogs time. Yeah. So so last week we gave

1341
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 1: out Everton and Brent winner winner. Then BJ gave out Frozen.

1342
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:46,840
Speaker 1: Announce it correctly, please.

1343
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:50,400
Speaker 2: Frozen.

1344
01:06:52,400 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 3: Uh.

1345
01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:55,919
Speaker 1: They proceed to go up three nail yep.

1346
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:56,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1347
01:06:56,640 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 2: Second half they proceed to lose four to three, two

1348
01:06:59,720 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 2: goals and stoppage time conceded. I had my friend who

1349
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:04,360
Speaker 2: actually worked for bet three six five. Came up to

1350
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,680
Speaker 2: me on Monday at our softball game and was like, dude,

1351
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:12,000
Speaker 2: the underdog parlay well BJ cashed. Congrats to BJ because

1352
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 2: he bet through bet three six five and got the

1353
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:16,920
Speaker 2: early payout because they were up two goals. You know,

1354
01:07:17,080 --> 01:07:19,400
Speaker 2: us US plebeians who did not bet through bet three

1355
01:07:19,400 --> 01:07:22,480
Speaker 2: six five, which was a huge mistake, did not.

1356
01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 3: Not living in Iowa, man Michael, I think that the

1357
01:07:26,520 --> 01:07:28,400
Speaker 3: finger needs to be pointed with blame.

1358
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 2: I will not take blame for this.

1359
01:07:30,280 --> 01:07:31,960
Speaker 3: It needs to point at the guy in all orange

1360
01:07:32,040 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 3: right now, because what happened was is that he'll never learn.

1361
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:41,560
Speaker 3: He'll never ever learn. He'll never learn. When Frosty nane

1362
01:07:42,000 --> 01:07:45,960
Speaker 3: how you pronounce it, uh, three goals? We got a

1363
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 3: text in our group chat it said one time ever ten.

1364
01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:50,480
Speaker 2: That was because they were kicking off.

1365
01:07:51,120 --> 01:07:56,160
Speaker 3: What happened within five minutes, Cagiliary scored immediately twice bang bang,

1366
01:07:56,360 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 3: just like that, and then suddenly it's oh no, we're screwed.

1367
01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:01,800
Speaker 3: Of course, the stoppage time happens, and of course I

1368
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:05,120
Speaker 3: also said frosting on John o'bett as well, and of

1369
01:08:05,200 --> 01:08:06,880
Speaker 3: course you know a fourth goal for good measure to

1370
01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:11,000
Speaker 3: blow that bed as well. Yeah, finger, and guess what, Anthony,

1371
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:15,960
Speaker 3: you got your one time on Averton. Congratulations. So if

1372
01:08:16,000 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 3: you want to point, don't put don't point the finger

1373
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:21,720
Speaker 3: at me because I am loyal to our sponsors and

1374
01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:24,400
Speaker 3: I placed the parlay at bet three sixty five, so

1375
01:08:25,160 --> 01:08:27,800
Speaker 3: you can yell at me all you want. I'm sorry

1376
01:08:27,880 --> 01:08:29,880
Speaker 3: that I'm oil to our sponsors, but the finger really

1377
01:08:29,920 --> 01:08:32,360
Speaker 3: needs to be pointed at the guy wearing the Syracuse

1378
01:08:32,400 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 3: hat right now.

1379
01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:36,240
Speaker 1: It's a it's a bad habit that I thought Anthony

1380
01:08:36,280 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 1: would have kicked because he's done it a few times now.

1381
01:08:38,400 --> 01:08:40,720
Speaker 3: Too young, he's too young. He has just to ye

1382
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:42,240
Speaker 3: never learn, you know what.

1383
01:08:42,439 --> 01:08:45,720
Speaker 1: Though, Let's hope we're in another situation like that this week.

1384
01:08:46,479 --> 01:08:47,439
Speaker 1: Maybe this is not.

1385
01:08:50,320 --> 01:08:53,840
Speaker 3: This is going to be a combined thirteen nothing. Well,

1386
01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:56,080
Speaker 3: bj you could you could just kill it on the

1387
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:58,400
Speaker 3: spot here Sheffield Dore noted three to one.

1388
01:08:58,800 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 2: Uh no, man the worst Premier League team of our lives.

1389
01:09:06,040 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 3: I thought the last two matches they haven't been that

1390
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 3: bad and against two of they didn't score.

1391
01:09:10,640 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 2: They didn't get a shot against Arsenal.

1392
01:09:13,280 --> 01:09:15,519
Speaker 3: But this is not Arsenal, Anthony. This is Wolves without

1393
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:18,320
Speaker 3: Pager Nato and a Wolve's defense that still isn't really

1394
01:09:18,400 --> 01:09:20,639
Speaker 3: that good. So if you're ever looking for a time

1395
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:23,680
Speaker 3: to back Sheffield United, who has scored in six up

1396
01:09:23,720 --> 01:09:26,679
Speaker 3: their ten Premier League matches, Anthony, if you're ever looking

1397
01:09:26,760 --> 01:09:26,960
Speaker 3: for a.

1398
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:27,760
Speaker 1: Time to bitch?

1399
01:09:28,560 --> 01:09:31,040
Speaker 2: Is there anybody out there that's looking for time to

1400
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:32,439
Speaker 2: bag Sheffland United?

1401
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 1: You just wake up in the morning.

1402
01:09:34,760 --> 01:09:37,280
Speaker 3: Well, I'll kill the parlor to start. So Cheffild three

1403
01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:37,559
Speaker 3: to one.

1404
01:09:37,680 --> 01:09:42,519
Speaker 2: I'm in now Dortmund plus three forty yep, yeah, I

1405
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:44,559
Speaker 2: think they lay Byron. It's going to be a big

1406
01:09:44,600 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 2: match Saturday, one thirty eastern.

1407
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:46,720
Speaker 3: Uh.

1408
01:09:47,439 --> 01:09:51,160
Speaker 2: Excited for it. I mean I don't like Dortman that much,

1409
01:09:51,200 --> 01:09:53,160
Speaker 2: but I like I hate Byron even more so. Embrace

1410
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:56,479
Speaker 2: the variance and I hope somebody out there has a

1411
01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:58,960
Speaker 2: cy fucking parlay do out there?

1412
01:09:59,280 --> 01:10:02,200
Speaker 3: I forgot to mention, do you know what Byrons x

1413
01:10:02,360 --> 01:10:03,799
Speaker 3: she was today? It's sure brucking?

1414
01:10:05,680 --> 01:10:07,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. I saw a point nine to nine, Yeah it

1415
01:10:07,920 --> 01:10:09,840
Speaker 2: was less than one. I saw point five. When I looked,

1416
01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:10,840
Speaker 2: I was expecting like.

1417
01:10:10,920 --> 01:10:14,120
Speaker 3: Four point eight and they just couldn't score. But no played,

1418
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:15,719
Speaker 3: they got out played on Mark.

1419
01:10:16,320 --> 01:10:20,320
Speaker 1: I'll wrap up our already dead underdog parlay. It comes

1420
01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:22,960
Speaker 1: out to seventy to one with the tricky Trees nodding

1421
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:26,640
Speaker 1: Force at plus three twenty picking on Aston Villa in

1422
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:32,880
Speaker 1: a classic bil Cell high. Villa's defense still not worth

1423
01:10:33,000 --> 01:10:38,120
Speaker 1: trusting at these kind of prices, So Sheffield United brusha

1424
01:10:38,280 --> 01:10:41,880
Speaker 1: Dortmund in uh derk classicer as it's known here in

1425
01:10:41,960 --> 01:10:45,800
Speaker 1: the States, and nod in a force taking on Aston Villa.

1426
01:10:45,920 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 1: That's the three like underdog parlay seventy to one. All right,

1427
01:10:49,800 --> 01:10:54,639
Speaker 1: time for our favorite bets for this upcoming Premier League weekend. Anthony,

1428
01:10:54,880 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 1: you can go first.

1429
01:10:56,240 --> 01:10:59,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do the Trees plus a half lost last week.

1430
01:11:00,520 --> 01:11:02,720
Speaker 2: You guys took my two favorite picks. I'm going with

1431
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:06,040
Speaker 2: Forest plus a half plus one hundred against Villa went

1432
01:11:06,080 --> 01:11:08,080
Speaker 2: into this, but I think Taiwo is uniquely suited to

1433
01:11:08,120 --> 01:11:11,519
Speaker 2: take advantage of what Villa's weakest defensive area is, and

1434
01:11:11,560 --> 01:11:14,599
Speaker 2: that's allowing big scoring changes in behind. And I think

1435
01:11:14,640 --> 01:11:16,559
Speaker 2: Tywer gets one and it's enough to keep this game

1436
01:11:16,640 --> 01:11:18,120
Speaker 2: tight and get that half.

1437
01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:21,240
Speaker 1: Cover Newcastle as high as plus one ninety up there

1438
01:11:21,240 --> 01:11:24,680
Speaker 1: as a home underdog against Arsenal. It's pretty simple here.

1439
01:11:24,760 --> 01:11:26,599
Speaker 1: We talked a lot about it. Off the top. Wrong

1440
01:11:26,760 --> 01:11:30,719
Speaker 1: team is favored in this match of two teams vying

1441
01:11:30,880 --> 01:11:33,519
Speaker 1: for the title. BJ your favorite bet.

1442
01:11:33,560 --> 01:11:36,720
Speaker 3: Brentford plus one oh five at home against west Ham.

1443
01:11:36,800 --> 01:11:39,160
Speaker 3: A really really good spy here for Brentford, who profiles

1444
01:11:39,360 --> 01:11:41,439
Speaker 3: actually pretty well against teams in the bottom half of

1445
01:11:41,439 --> 01:11:43,640
Speaker 3: the table. Since the start of last season, against the

1446
01:11:43,680 --> 01:11:46,160
Speaker 3: bottom ten teams in the Premier League, Brentford has a

1447
01:11:46,280 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 3: plus eighteen point five expected gold of frenchill in twenty

1448
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:52,240
Speaker 3: six matches. It's a good match for them Tactley as well. Typically,

1449
01:11:52,240 --> 01:11:54,240
Speaker 3: when they played teams where they know they're going to

1450
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:55,960
Speaker 3: hold more possession, they like to set up in a

1451
01:11:56,000 --> 01:11:58,280
Speaker 3: four to three three as opposed their usual three to

1452
01:11:58,320 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 3: five to two, which brings on another attack and gives

1453
01:12:01,120 --> 01:12:03,559
Speaker 3: them more with as well. They did this against Burnley

1454
01:12:03,640 --> 01:12:06,080
Speaker 3: to great success. Also, Brentford is one of the best

1455
01:12:06,160 --> 01:12:07,920
Speaker 3: set piece teams in the Premier League. They've been that

1456
01:12:07,960 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 3: way for about two years, while west Ham is one

1457
01:12:10,360 --> 01:12:13,040
Speaker 3: of the worst teams at defending set pieces. Also not

1458
01:12:13,160 --> 01:12:15,960
Speaker 3: a great spot here for west Ham, who has had

1459
01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:18,800
Speaker 3: to play on Sunday against Everton in the League Cup

1460
01:12:18,800 --> 01:12:22,120
Speaker 3: against Arsenal on Wednesday and now has this match against

1461
01:12:22,160 --> 01:12:25,280
Speaker 3: Brentford on Saturday and then a Europa League match on Thursday.

1462
01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:27,479
Speaker 3: The fixtures are piling up here for West Ham and

1463
01:12:27,520 --> 01:12:30,040
Speaker 3: they haven't really rotated their squad either, so I could

1464
01:12:30,040 --> 01:12:32,799
Speaker 3: see some tired legs out there from the Hammers. Projected

1465
01:12:32,800 --> 01:12:35,200
Speaker 3: Brentford at minus one thirty seven, so I like the

1466
01:12:35,680 --> 01:12:37,559
Speaker 3: Bees at plus one five.

1467
01:12:38,080 --> 01:12:41,320
Speaker 1: There you have it, another episode of Windergo in the books.

1468
01:12:41,360 --> 01:12:44,679
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Monday morning to preview the upcoming

1469
01:12:44,800 --> 01:12:48,519
Speaker 1: Champions League slate, So only a couple more days until

1470
01:12:48,520 --> 01:12:50,479
Speaker 1: you hear from us again, but until then, best of

1471
01:12:50,560 --> 01:12:52,640
Speaker 1: luck with all your bets in the Premier League and

1472
01:12:52,880 --> 01:12:56,839
Speaker 1: Europe and beyond this weekend. For BJ Cunningham Anthony Dubundo,

1473
01:12:56,840 --> 01:12:58,680
Speaker 1: I'm Michael leeb Up. Thank you to our sponsor's bet

1474
01:12:58,720 --> 01:13:00,599
Speaker 1: three to six five and we will see Monday morning.

1475
01:13:09,240 --> 01:13:13,720
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1476
01:13:13,800 --> 01:13:16,560
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1477
01:13:16,560 --> 01:13:19,639
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler