1 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: From the heart of where innovation, money and power. CALLI 2 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: in Silicon Valley and beyond. This is Bloomberg Technology with 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: Emily Jay. I'm Caroline Hide in New York game for 4 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: Emily Chang and this is Bloomberg Technology coming up in 5 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: the next hour. The sell off and continues across the board. 6 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: Tech is in the crosshairs. Is fears Lingo over the 7 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: fensibility to tackle inflation. Then as that one well now 8 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: down in the last three training days plus Crypto not 9 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: spared in this sell off. Bitcoin slipping down below thirty two, 10 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: down more than from its all time high. My conversation 11 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: with Galaxy Digitals Michael Novegratz about where he thinks the 12 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: bottom might be, and look out below how the slide 13 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: inequities is affecting the once hot I p O market. 14 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: Will talk to one textio who says, with the traditional 15 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 1: IPO press, it's actually a scam kicking things off. Victoria Green, 16 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: she's a chief investment officer. I'm fanning partner over at 17 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:12,319 Speaker 1: g squad. Victoria perfect to have your voice, because what 18 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 1: do you make of whether we're going to see capitulation 19 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: in the market sometime soon, whether the correlations are all 20 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: sort of working against the tech investor right now. I 21 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: don't think it's going to capitulate yet. You know the 22 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,559 Speaker 1: number one invested adage right now, if don't fight the FED, 23 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 1: and I think the FED is going up, they're gonna hike, 24 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: They're gonna tighten. And that's a little bit tough on 25 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: on tech and growth right now. And honestly, and not 26 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: all stocks are created equal. Right now, I'm kind of 27 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: staying out with the new and in with the old. 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: Are of the new stuff, the pandemic darlings that are 29 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: now pandemic duds are not really performing the same as 30 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: some of the old tech. You look at your IBM, 31 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 1: your Cisco, your broad cooms and and and more of 32 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: the value text. So right now, we really do think 33 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: you want to be owning companies that are giving you 34 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 1: the earnings now, that have a sustainable path forward on 35 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: how they're going to grow their earning, not just on 36 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: a wing in a prayer and what they hope will happen. 37 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: And so I think you see a lot of these 38 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: stocks getting punished. I mean, Amazon down thirty three percent 39 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: since the end of March, and that company obviously prints 40 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: billions upon billions of cash. But I think investors are 41 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: looking where are we going to find growths? How are 42 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: you going to grow your earnings? Why is Microsoft off 43 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: one of the four percent? People questioning the growth of 44 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: that sort of a business as well? Or is this 45 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 1: the sort of at the moment everything the baby goes 46 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: out with a baffof it's a following tide following all boats. 47 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: You know, that's a horrible way of putting it. But 48 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: at baby and bathwater. Absolutely there's nowhere to hide right now. 49 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: If you're looking for green on the screen, it is 50 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: very minimal, especially in the tech sector. I don't think 51 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 1: there's anything wrong with earning Microsoft. They had great earning 52 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: uh and obviously they've got a good potential, but I 53 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: think they're getting dragged down with everyone else. You're seeing 54 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: this correlation with with bitcoin, with tech stocks, with the 55 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,119 Speaker 1: arc funds, and we actually con termed about the Holy trinity, 56 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 1: and you're seeing that correlation live up to it. It's 57 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: it's billing right now because you really can't see one 58 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: move without the other one. And you're not seeing bitcoin 59 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,959 Speaker 1: be aheads at all. You're seeing it not in head inflation, 60 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: and you're seeing it more and more developed into a 61 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: tradeable stock type investment that has no earning, so you 62 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 1: know what it is. I think we're finding out a 63 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 1: little bit more what it is. When you're chief investment officer, 64 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: are you looking at well, either is this a by 65 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: the dip moment and you know when everyone else is 66 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: fearful be greedy, or is there something that you need 67 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 1: to see some sort of bottom, some sort of clearing 68 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: of the deck by the Federal Reserve, some sort of 69 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,239 Speaker 1: sign of of peak inflation before you start thinking, Okay, 70 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,959 Speaker 1: now is a safe moment to be allocating cash. Uh, 71 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: we're not quite buyed yet of the tech sector. I 72 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: think it's a little early. I don't think we think 73 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: of situation yet. The sad's not going to rescue us here. 74 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: I think there are some people holding out, some hope 75 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: that maybe they won't be as hawkish because look at 76 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: how bad the markets then. But we're holding tight. We've 77 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: been looking more at value. I think with tech, you 78 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: know there are some selective names. You look at some 79 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: of the semis that have sold off or cybersecurity that 80 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: there are very good companies you're seeing it just it 81 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: doesn't matter who you are, you're going down. I think 82 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 1: it's early to come in, and if you look at 83 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: the technicals, we're kind of in the middle ground right now, 84 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: and and I think that means there's more to ball. 85 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: There's nothing to rescue us really soon. What is the 86 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: sign of capitulation for you, Victoria, I mean, I think 87 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: we need a Billy show nine percent down there. I 88 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 1: think we need to sign some support and some putting 89 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: on the technical side. And I think, obviously, you know, 90 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: have we reached Pete Pocket said, I don't think so. 91 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: I think they're going to run off their balance sheet. 92 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: So I think maybe this summer we can see it 93 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: move around. You know, I don't see us avoiding a second. 94 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 1: So I'm not moving very fast right now because I 95 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: see a little bit more pain in the cards, especially 96 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 1: for the sector. Meanwhile, forty five pm New York time, 97 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 1: it was announced by Grinder that it is going to 98 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: go public through a Tiger's back at two point one 99 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: billions on evaluation. I mean, I've seen headline after headline, 100 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: Bank of America, Goldman City, all these banks backing away 101 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: from being exposed to special purpose acquisition companies. They're worried 102 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 1: about the regulation effect right about being in some way 103 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: affected by it, do this companies still coming to the market. 104 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: Do you see still spacks but purchasing companies. I think 105 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 1: stacks work when they have a target in mind and 106 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: they can acquire it. You know, it's just kind of 107 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: a backdoor I p O. I think what they're trying 108 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 1: to limit is a spack raising capital on hopes and 109 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: dreams and not really having a set target. And you 110 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: saw a lot of SPACs fail and the banks got rich, 111 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,919 Speaker 1: the sponsors got rich, and the underlying clients tended to 112 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 1: not do well. So obviously the SEC stepping in uh 113 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 1: really made people back off the similar to other I 114 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 1: p O s, I think the fact is not going 115 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 1: to be dead, but I think it's going to go 116 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: back to doing what it was supposed to do, which 117 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 1: was kind of bring a company to market with a 118 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: little bit of a backdoor. But then it became open 119 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 1: season and everybody was just raising all this money to 120 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: eventually go buy something, and there aren't enough targets, and 121 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: you saw multiple SPACs fail, and you know you have 122 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: to wonder. Obviously, with Bumble and everything else, this is 123 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: a crowded space. But the Grinder has put a pretty 124 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: decent niche in their market, and it is a is 125 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: a viable product. Um. I think they're really targeting the 126 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 1: facts that that didn't really have a target, and investors 127 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 1: really got hurt by putting the money with This person 128 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: knows what they're doing. They're going to be able to 129 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: find this company for me and then eventually not finding 130 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: what they wanted. There's a global element to this, of course, Yes, 131 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: we're very fearful of the FED of inflation of very 132 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: close to home things, but of course this is also 133 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 1: the perfect year political storm. This is an inflationary pressure 134 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: that is worldwide. This is also a story of slowdown, 135 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: particularly in China. How much you're looking at those global 136 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: effects from that at the moment, Victoria, are you very 137 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: much focused on what's affecting the US economy? Well, I 138 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: mean the supply chain issue in China is going to 139 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: affect us greatly. You know, we we barely got out 140 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: of COVID and we kind of ductap together this recovery. 141 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: We weren't really on that pilt of a footing, even 142 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: though the market had this tremendous rally off that mark, 143 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:49,559 Speaker 1: and then we look around and you see what's happening 144 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: in Shanghai. The zero COVID policies in China and the 145 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: supply chain back up. We're still very vulnerable to that 146 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,919 Speaker 1: supply chain back up, you know, moving a factory and 147 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: actually shoring up your supply chain from maybe we have 148 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 1: some other options and people are sitting on some more inventory. 149 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: It's not easy to build. You can't build a factory 150 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: and get it going in a year. So our supply 151 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 1: chains better. No, you have pressure coming from the war 152 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. You're cutting rushed out of the market. You 153 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: have China shutting down, Shanghai shutting down. You see all 154 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 1: of those chips backed up at the Shanghai port, very 155 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: revenuscent of what was happening outside of the port of 156 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: l A and you're already putting pressure on on what 157 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: wasn't really a great supply chain to begin with. So 158 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: the world is getting smaller. And when the world gets smaller, 159 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: you know we cut out Russia. China's shutting down a 160 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: little bit. How are you going to find your growth 161 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: right now? If you have less trading partners and you're 162 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: paying more. So I think there's a lot of pain 163 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: still to be had. I'm not uber bear. I think 164 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: we can find footing. I don't think this is an 165 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: o A, but I think you need to be very 166 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: aware of what you own right now and how how 167 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: at risk you are to your earnings holding up. Are 168 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: they sustainable? You know? And then you look at a 169 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: Netflix and realize that, hey, some of these these high 170 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: fire megacaps. You know, it takes one or two bad 171 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: earnings for Booker a Netflix and suddenly they lose value. 172 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: Victoria Green can talk all afternoon to you. Thank you 173 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: so much, Chief investment officer for g squared. Fascinating discussion, 174 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: of course, coming from what is a boutique independent advisory 175 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: fun Meanwhile, coming up more on the text sell off 176 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: what that means for the I p O landscape. We're 177 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: just talking about it with Victoria. We'll discuss all this 178 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: and more with mobile analytics company Amplitude as net. This 179 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: is a bloomberg. We're seeing the end of a long 180 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: era of free money that our economy, in the global 181 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,079 Speaker 1: economy has been in, you know, going back all the 182 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 1: way to September eleven. Well, it's a bit of a 183 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: blood bath out there. So companies that were already in 184 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: the ip O window hoping to go public this year, 185 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: that window is shut late stage growth companies are pulling back. 186 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 1: Early stage companies are not getting rounds done. I mean, 187 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: there's a real venture chill afoot. Unfortunately, it's certainly a 188 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: tough market out there, as you acknowledge. But you know, 189 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: at the same time at DoorDash, we're focused on the fundermentals, 190 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 1: and the fundomentals for doordesh are incredibly strong. You know, 191 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: we're not happy about obviously what's been happening with tech 192 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: stocks or our stock, but at the same time, you know, 193 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: new world that we're entering, and I just think about 194 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: the fundamental value proposition that Toyot provides, you know, to 195 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: our customers. You know, we just keep our eye on 196 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: the ball, which is serving our customers, and I think 197 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 1: that's what a lot of companies are are probably just 198 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: doing there in this time. A few tech executives there 199 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: that we've been having across the Blue Bow Technology Show 200 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: in the last week or so, reacting to the tech 201 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: sell off. We want to talk to another CEO, Amplitudes. 202 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: Spencer Skates is with us company joined the public market 203 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: and or a direct listing less than a year ago 204 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: back in September, and you go to the Heady Heights 205 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: of about a ten billion dollar market cap and and 206 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: I'm afraid it's a lot less than that now, Spencer, 207 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: And of course, I'm sure you're gonna say, look, I 208 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: on the prize, keep focused on the business, But what 209 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: do you do when your investors must be a little 210 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: shell shopped? Yeah, and again, I think we delivered a 211 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 1: phenomenal Q one result on our last earnings call. We're 212 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: really excited about being out in the public markets. One 213 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: of the number one things I had to emphasize with 214 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: the team is that short term market volatility is just 215 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: not in your control. You can still deliver everything you 216 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: commit to as a company. You can grow the business. 217 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: We had one of our most phenomenal growth years last year, 218 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 1: being up sixty every year, and you can still get 219 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: hit in the public markets because of things outside of 220 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: your control. And so we're seeing that happened very broadly 221 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: across the sector. You know, even companies that meet or 222 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: exceed earnings expectations get hit um and so it really 223 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: tests what c e O s and what teams are 224 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: in it for the long term versus short. Yeah, well 225 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: said on that, and I'm interested is to how you 226 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: make sure that your talent remains in the long term, 227 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: because when you've had an exit moment, when you've of 228 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 1: course people got a lot of money exposed to the 229 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: share price. Now, how do you ensure that people remain 230 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: as focused on the long term as you are. Well, 231 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: we actually brought the entire company through a whole exercise 232 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: where we actually pretended we were a public before we 233 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: went out into the markets, where we simulated a stock 234 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: price for the company, and we hadn't go way up, 235 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: and then we had to go way down, um, and 236 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: then we had to come back to the middle. And 237 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: the key thing for everyone to understand and take away 238 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: was that even if they delivered the results, even if 239 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: they achieved their goals, even if they were successful as 240 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: a company, that the stock price could have tremendous volatility. 241 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: And so the only thing that we could control was 242 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: whether we hit our goals, whether we ship products, whether 243 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 1: we make customers happy, um. And to stay focused on that, 244 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 1: and if you stay focused on that, that will result 245 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: in success in the long term. Some of the best 246 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: tech companies got started during down terms and recessions. Sales 247 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: Force started in the early two thousand's, uh, you know, 248 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: face books started around then as well. Lots of great 249 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: companies like Airbnb started during the financial crisis in two 250 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: thousand and eight UM and so it's really now is 251 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: that is one of the best times to build and 252 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 1: grow a large tech company. And so this is where 253 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: you see a lot of noise being removed from the market, 254 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 1: where companies who are not as good will have to 255 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: go through layoffs, will have to kind of pull back 256 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 1: their investments as money isn't available and as free as 257 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: it is now as it was in the past. And 258 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: it's really for those who have robust, durable businesses that 259 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: will be able to weather the next few years. And 260 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: so that's something that we've always done very well here 261 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: at Amplitude. And the robustness of your business is also 262 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: put determined by the demand and by companies willing to 263 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: spend on products such as ourselves. Do you feel like 264 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: the sentiment is there, that the confidence is there for 265 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: people to be buying Amplitude services. Oh yeah, we had, 266 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 1: you know, That's why we were very proud of the 267 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: Q one results that we had. We had a lot 268 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 1: of great companies decided to either come on to Amplitude 269 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 1: for the first time, companies like Barnes and Noble or 270 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: brain Security. We had a lot of companies expand on 271 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: us in a big way. PayPal was a big uh 272 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: as a big expansion growth this quarter. We had Square, 273 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: we had Okay, Cupid, we had IBM, we had the 274 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: weather channels. So tons and tons of companies out there 275 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: really willing to make investments with Amplitude, and that goes 276 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: back to the rising power of the product organization. So 277 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: you know what we do here at Amplitude is we 278 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: help companies build data driven products UM. And so what 279 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: Adobe is for marketing and salesforces, for sales team, Amplitude 280 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,599 Speaker 1: is for product teams and so all the same megatrends 281 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: around people driving growth through products. So product like growth, 282 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 1: people needing data DRIM products UM, digital optimization being the 283 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: next wave after digital transformation, all of those data points 284 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: are still very much ringing, ringing true today. Okay, And 285 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 1: do you have what is it that continues to perhaps 286 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 1: be a limitation to you? Of course? Does it? Is 287 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: it talent? I feel that everyone's talking about how facely 288 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 1: everyone is fighting for at the moment, how having to 289 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 1: pay up for the information rey pressures. That is that 290 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: something you feel confident in a way you currently stand spensive. Yeah, 291 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: you know, talent is always a challenge for every company 292 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: and it's no different here at Amplitude. And that's honestly 293 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: my number one concern before we went out into the 294 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: public markets. People ask me, hey, what do you think 295 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: the biggest risk to Amplitude is UM and I kept 296 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: going back to talent and our ability to make them successful. 297 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 1: Here in Amplitude. We're really confident UM in the market 298 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: opportunity here, you know, thirty seven billion dollars of total 299 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: adjustable market for what we do. We're really confident and 300 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: that we have a best in class product. We had 301 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: a number of awards that continue to come out about 302 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 1: cementing Amplitude as the number one product analytics platform in 303 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: the space UM. And so it really comes down to 304 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: our ability to execute on that and that's that's the 305 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: talent Now. I think in the sessiony environment, you know, 306 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: a lot of ways, talent becomes cheaper and more accessible 307 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 1: because there's less opportunities out there. So it's a it's 308 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: a really great opportunity for us and to go play offense. 309 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: We have this really strong balance sheet here at Amplitude, 310 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: and you know, we are continuing to make investments in 311 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: talent across the board, Spencer, Skates, Applitude CEO Mata. Of course, 312 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: parent company of Facebook, is opening its first physical store 313 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: and it's a brick and mortar bed on the metaverse 314 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: Matter hopes giving consumers chance to try out the VR, 315 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: the a R hardware, while the little boost interest in 316 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: the future of digital interactions. Companies had a meta store. 317 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: That's Martin Gilliad spoke to take a listen. What we 318 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: learned from this store will definitely go into how we 319 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: build the product and where we actually continue to sell it. 320 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: Why Burling Game and not San Francisco or New York 321 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: City or London. Yeah, this great question. So Burling Game 322 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: is the headquarters of Reality ants, and we felt that 323 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: it was important to have the customer experience that we're 324 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: creating very closely. Where we're creating a product. We want 325 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: that to be senator to how we continue to build 326 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 1: innovation in the future, and so this felt like the 327 00:15:55,600 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: perfect place to put our very first experience. I've been 328 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: in a few different situations where you see a product 329 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: in pop up format, right, you're in a mall, you're 330 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: walking perhaps in some kind of outlets area. Could you 331 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: guys look at pop ups maybe you know, doing temporary 332 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: pop ups in different cities around the world. Well, I 333 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: think what we will learn from this experience is where 334 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: we should be in the kind of experiences we should create. 335 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 1: A lot of the experiences that we've built in Browning 336 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: Game Store are unique. It's the first time some of 337 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: these have actually existed anywhere. And I'm sure as you 338 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: saw from our our quest to a demo UM, and 339 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 1: as we learn more, we'll decide where and how those 340 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: who show up around the world. Is this a luxury experience? 341 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: Do you want it to be a luxury experience? We 342 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 1: actually wanted to be an approachable experience. We want people 343 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: to feel comfortable asking questions. We've built it so that 344 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: people can pick up the products and they can test 345 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: it out, and we have these great associates so you 346 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 1: can ask questions, UM, and it can be so much 347 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: more um than what people read about. This one of 348 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: those things where you have to experience. And that's what 349 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: stores built around. Told me what it's like going into 350 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 1: the stool, What am I going to touch? Feel? Experience? 351 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: While I'm that Yeah, so there's a couple of things. Um. Obviously, 352 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 1: we have our products here around our reband stories where 353 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: you can try glasses on that offer the ability to 354 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: take pictures and video, which I personally appreciated having intended 355 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 1: a wedding last week where I was able to actually 356 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: be at the wedding while I was actually sharing it 357 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: with other people. We have portal which actually I'm speaking 358 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 1: to you on today, UM, that allows you to have 359 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 1: these conversations not just for work, but even with family. 360 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: And I think about the pandemic when my my son 361 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 1: had an opportunity to reach stories to his grandmother every night, 362 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 1: which was amazing. And then obviously, UM, probably the most 363 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 1: exciting thing that people say when they walk into store 364 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: is a mixed reality screen with Quest two that allows 365 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,920 Speaker 1: them to actually not just try the product, but allow 366 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: everyone who's with them to see how they are experiencing 367 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: the game as well. And that experience allows it to 368 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: be and one that is shared with many, even though 369 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 1: it's experienced by a few. Martin, are you open to 370 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: the idea that the store experiment might not work the 371 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: actually the best way for Meta to grow its hardware 372 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 1: reach virtual reality reach is online. Well, the store is 373 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 1: not an experiment, it is it is a continued investment 374 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: from us to make sure that we can get um 375 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: feedback from our consumers, but also an opportunity for us 376 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:27,919 Speaker 1: to keep building and make sure the seas at the 377 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: center of what people are experiencing with our hardware. And 378 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 1: you're the head of Meta Store, so I'll ask you 379 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: again you want to open some more stores and where 380 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 1: I think as we learn more about how people are 381 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: experiencing this will will be able to communicate with that 382 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 1: means later. Right now, we're focused on what we are 383 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 1: creating and growing gaming the experiences that people will have here. 384 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: Martin gilliad that of course hand a Meta Store talking 385 00:18:54,880 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: to our own ed Ludlow. Welcome back to Bluemberg Technology. 386 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hyde in New York. Let's get back to 387 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: the markets, because well we've all been so focused on 388 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 1: it for the day, for the last three days, and 389 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 1: of course the shares a ribban I want to watch. 390 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 1: The ev maker saw its biggest drop on record after 391 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: a lock up on its shares expired on Sunday night. 392 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 1: Ed Ludlow is here with the details. Remind us what 393 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 1: what happened with the lock up expiry. This of course 394 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,640 Speaker 1: didn't go too well for Rivian Right. So, Ribban had 395 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,400 Speaker 1: this huge ip O in November, and as is often 396 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 1: the case when they have an I p O, some 397 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: of the biggest investors and insiders and employees are restricted 398 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: in what they can do with their shares. Initially, the 399 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 1: lock up on Sunday night basically meant that seven hundred 400 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 1: and twenty million shares of Ribban suddenly became available for 401 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 1: public trading. They could be sold, and we had news 402 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: reports over the weekend that Ford, which is one of 403 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 1: the biggest Ribbean investors, had sold a block of eight 404 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: million shares at a discount from Friday's close, and it's 405 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: it's just not good for sentiment. You know, when one 406 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 1: of your biggest shareholder does trade when the lock up lifts, 407 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 1: it kind of sends jitters throughout the market. And you 408 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 1: look at how Rivian shares have performed since that post 409 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: i p O peak, where they were at hundred and 410 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: seventy two dollars a share. We're now down below twenty 411 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: five dollars a share, the stocks fall at seven percent, 412 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: and all things considered, when we come to lock ops 413 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: it it went as badly as it possibly could have 414 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,120 Speaker 1: gone badly as possibly could have gone. Meanwhile, of course 415 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,400 Speaker 1: there is one person or andy, one investor that's not selling, right. Yeah, 416 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: So Abdulla Teacher Meil is a big Saudi family conglomerate. 417 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 1: They are the third biggest shareholder in Rivian, behind tro Price, 418 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,880 Speaker 1: a big name on Wall Street of course, and Amazon, 419 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: which is another big investor in customer Ribban. And they 420 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: told me we have no intention to sell down our 421 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: stake to sell the shares, and they gave a very 422 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 1: public backing of Rivian's management. But we didn't have the 423 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,719 Speaker 1: same explicit backing from Amazon. For example, Amazon said they 424 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: were committed to working with Rivian, but they didn't comment 425 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: on a rule out selling the shares at a later date, 426 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: And so there's a lot psychology around this. What's really 427 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: interesting though is throughout the day Monday, there's lots of 428 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: data suggest retail investors are now looking at ribbyan right, 429 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: it's cheaper option. They were oversubscribed in the I p O, 430 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 1: A lot of retail investors missed out, so there could 431 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 1: be some upward trajectory from here. But it was just 432 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: a really rough day, biggest drop on record, rough day 433 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: for Ribban, rough day for many ed We thank you 434 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:25,120 Speaker 1: so much. Let's talk about more of that roughness shall 435 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: we call it, and the text sell off happening right here, 436 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: right now? What does it mean in the public markets? 437 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 1: What does that spin over affect to the private markets? 438 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 1: Want to bring in Race Capital partner Edith Young for 439 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 1: more on this. Of course, early stage Silicon Valley venture 440 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: capital funds so not unaware of what's happening in the 441 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: public markets and the and the race to enter those 442 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: public markets. What do you make of currently let's talk 443 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: stocks first. How much are we seeing this ripple effect 444 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: affecting valuations in the private markets and people's desire to 445 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: build right here right now? Yeah, I think, as Caroline 446 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 1: as an investor that really focused on early stage infrastructure software, 447 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 1: the market is brutal and it's certainly will impact a 448 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: lot of evaluation in the private market. Um But having 449 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: said that, I think the particular in the world of 450 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: Web three and Web two infrastructure software just there's still 451 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: so much more to be built, um Like for us 452 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 1: particular at the early stage, I think valuation is not 453 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: particular impact us yet. But at the same time, I'm 454 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 1: still really really bullish on some of the companies that 455 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 1: we invested in, Still you know, Salana. Obviously a little 456 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: bit more on the crypto side. Ft X is a 457 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: little bit you still private I'm so bullish on while 458 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: they're building, but early stage is still missing a lot 459 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 1: of building block. So I'm excited about Bundler, which is 460 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: sort of storage for Web three, notified, which is like 461 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: communication of Web three. There's still so much more to 462 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: be built, but we need to just hang tight um 463 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: and not get too scared with what's going on. Okay, 464 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 1: let's talk about the crypto market, because you mentioned to 465 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: companies very exposed basing themselves on one three in the future. 466 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 1: Thereof when you see the biggest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin getting hammered 467 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 1: so much, when you see the spillover effects of a 468 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 1: VC money that's been placed into these sorts of businesses 469 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: and and now a pullback and perhaps that sort of 470 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 1: risk tolerance. Does that mean that people are going to 471 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: be worrying about the rest of the crypto space. How 472 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: do how does the spillover effect happen? Well, I think 473 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: crypto and the Web three space is not purely just 474 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 1: about bitcoin prices or talking prices. It's really about the 475 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: technology sire things in my head. You know, in many 476 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 1: in many cases, SLANA is basically building the AWS and 477 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 1: the Web three infrastructure, and not that along that there's 478 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: still back up recovery, communication storage. It's still not there yet. 479 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,360 Speaker 1: I think if we look at the crypto market, if 480 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: you're purely just looking exchanges, obviously it's a little bit crazy. 481 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: But you know, three years ago or even five years ago, 482 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 1: when I first got into it, bitcoin prices with three 483 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 1: thousand dollars. Today is still ten x um. And you 484 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 1: know three three or four years ago, come by market 485 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: ab about four billion, but today is so over I 486 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 1: think one point three one point five trillion. So in 487 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: that sense, overall market is not going away, but we 488 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: definitely will see some ripple effect of what's going on. 489 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: But I'm so super bullish because there's so much more 490 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 1: things and the fundamental for the technology, which is not 491 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: about crazy trading, it's about founders often and I think, 492 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 1: of course when you mentioned Solano, when you mentioned f 493 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 1: t X thing as Sam Bankman Free SPF have been 494 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 1: on a podcast of Bloomberg's recently Odd Lots by my Alcohegue, 495 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,120 Speaker 1: Joe's Wisenthal and a healthy dose of cynicism coming from 496 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,120 Speaker 1: SPF when it came to well, what's happening in terms 497 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: of VC money, in terms of far yield farming, in 498 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: terms of you know, what's been built, in terms of 499 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: in terms of I know, the lunars of this world. 500 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 1: Do you think this is a healthy sort of rebalancing 501 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: in the market that will stop seeing just money, that 502 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: these sort of momentum trades that are happening within crypto. Yeah, Carolina. 503 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: When I spoke with Emily and in December about what's 504 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,439 Speaker 1: going to happen in twenty two, I predicted that, you know, 505 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 1: crypto prices usually dropped in the beginning of the year, 506 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 1: and there's certainly half and you know, I think for 507 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 1: us that with SPF and I'm really really thankful that 508 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 1: got to invest in f t X pretty much early 509 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 1: on in I think like the key thing is really about, 510 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: you know, making sure that we do that we don't 511 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,440 Speaker 1: do crazy things. I think, you know, investors is no 512 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 1: longer just about investing, is really about helping our founders 513 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 1: to build, to make sure that we're compliance, to make 514 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,400 Speaker 1: sure that you know, operating wise, you know, we're here 515 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 1: to help them and we for many many um as 516 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: you just talk about Ravan and with the lock up. 517 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 1: A lot of the investor just sell off right after 518 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: the six months lock up for many many of our companies. 519 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 1: For Salana, I've been holding since eighteen. I still will hold. 520 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 1: It's all about being long term and not being a 521 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,959 Speaker 1: short term investor. I mean, at the end of the day, 522 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: I'm not a hedge fund. I'm not here to tray 523 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: and make sure term money. It's really about like long 524 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: term holding, supporting the ecosystem. The ecosystem needs to be 525 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 1: supported with the regulation as well, and of course FTX 526 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: front and central with the proposal that's going through at 527 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 1: the moment in terms of you know, the future of 528 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: options or derivatives and and intermediation within that. I was 529 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 1: suppoke to the new chairman of this a CFTC a 530 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 1: little bit earlier and how do you feel regulation is 531 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 1: getting to grips with this new ecosystem. I think I think, 532 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: you know, coming from the White House for for a 533 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: few more. I think too about two or three months ago, 534 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: having the executive order to basically indicated the President Brighten 535 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: really wanted to support, you know, regulate is a good 536 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: sign for the ecosystem long term, and particularly with st X, 537 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 1: the ft T token is not available for US market. 538 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 1: I think, you know, they make a really really conscious 539 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: choice to move headquarters to the Bahamas, which I went 540 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: two weeks ago with the fts on front, which is 541 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 1: amazingly successful and having a very clear line being drawn 542 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 1: what's being offered to the U S customers versus the 543 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 1: rest of the world is very, very different. In addition 544 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 1: to ft X, you know, coin Based, which already gone public, 545 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: is making a huge effort to make sure that we 546 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 1: all regulate k y C a m L no compliance. 547 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: This is a really really good thing for the crypto 548 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 1: market long term, and we are raised Capital are here 549 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,120 Speaker 1: to support all these initiatives, Edith. So it's great catching 550 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 1: up with the Race Capital planner, Edith Young, stay well, 551 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Indeed, meanwhile, coming up while bitcoins, 552 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 1: we're just talking about it slumping at a level that 553 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: was last seen in July. We're here from Galaxy Digitals. 554 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 1: Mike demograds on that very fact as a brim bag 555 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 1: time for our crypto report now with Bitcoin of courls 556 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: extending losses, even dropping below almost thirty thousand at one 557 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 1: point on Monday, this is the first time it goes 558 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: a slow since back in July. It's declined from a 559 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 1: November record high. Crypto contributor Shnani Bassak is hey with 560 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 1: more brutal setting pressure, brutal, brutal, brutal solid pressure. And 561 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,199 Speaker 1: you take a look over here at Caroline, we've been 562 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 1: talking about this one year merry go round, the crypto 563 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: investors have really gone through, and Bitcoin being the brunt 564 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,160 Speaker 1: of that, the biggest cryptocurrency here. And you look at 565 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: where we've gone more than ten percent lower over the 566 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 1: last couple of days, now getting a little bit of 567 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 1: lift about thirty one thousand. Again. You and I have 568 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: talked to novgrads a little bit earlier today with a 569 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,120 Speaker 1: real worry that they could fall below thirty thousand if 570 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 1: the NASDAC also continued to decline. That is a low 571 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 1: that he expects. Listen, but it's not just Bitcoin that 572 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 1: we want to talk about, although that there is a 573 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 1: lot of momentum in that downward pressure there you see 574 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 1: over the last couple of days. Let's talk about a cryptocurrencies, 575 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 1: even stable coins. A lot of worry that you see 576 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: over there with ust being unpegged to the dollar. I 577 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 1: want to pull up this tweet from investor Jim Bianco 578 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 1: of Bianco Research, and the worry that USC down more 579 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: than four percent and under ninety cents at one point, 580 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 1: the worry that a downward move in a stable coin 581 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 1: like that can qualify bitcoin backed by bitcoin exactly the 582 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 1: most important part there is there a more selling that 583 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: needs to be done to peg that stable coin to 584 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 1: the dollars. So there's a lot of worries here about 585 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 1: how one asset will correlate to another asset. And let's 586 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 1: take a listen to here of what Nobs had to 587 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: say about the selling pressure when we were forty thousand 588 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 1: literally just a week ago. And so the pace of 589 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 1: this move has been severe, Right, it's correlated with the 590 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,600 Speaker 1: risk off that you're seeing all assets, right, the rise 591 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 1: of the dollar um. And so I still think thirty 592 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: should hold. Right, We'll see if twelve thousand holds the 593 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 1: NASDAC and we bounce uh in the next few days. 594 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 1: Uh that I think you'll see Bitcoin thirty thirty thousand 595 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: will hold. If the Nasdaq falls and we head towards 596 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 1: eleven thousand, you know there's a shot that thirty thousand goes. 597 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 1: I would tell you getting away from price, which is 598 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: hard to do it today, when the markets down ten 599 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: percent um, it's really interesting if you just look back 600 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 1: at all the adoption that's happened this year. I mean 601 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 1: the first quarter, loan venture funds have put fourteen billion 602 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 1: dollars into the ecosystem. And so this is a an 603 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 1: asset class, right blockchain, digital assets, Bitcoin that is getting 604 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: tremendous investment, tremendous interest. And so while the short term 605 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: you know, outlook is painful and it's and it's gonna be, 606 00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: like I said, volatable with the rest of assets, has 607 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:53,400 Speaker 1: the FED adjusts from free money to to normalize conditions, Um, 608 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 1: my medium term conviction hasn't wavered. I really do still 609 00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 1: see this as a very excit aiding asset class with 610 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: a lot of momentum. And my infracorrelation because I think 611 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 1: that was the main hope, the prayer this saying that 612 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 1: was going to these institution investors that have come into 613 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: crypto is that this is a non correlated asset. But 614 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 1: thus far it's very correlated in a large part, probably 615 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: because more institutional players have come in and they're having 616 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 1: to sell as they seen the NASCA go down. Listen, 617 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: it had less correlation until there was free money forever. Right. 618 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:27,480 Speaker 1: The correlation increased dramatically after COVID because every central bank 619 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: took a fire hose of liquidity and sprayed on the tarmac, 620 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: and so it made all assets. You can look at 621 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 1: the correlation of you know, fine wines or baseball cards 622 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 1: or any collectible to the NASDAC to assets, and so 623 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:45,480 Speaker 1: we're unwinding this era of free money, and so it's 624 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 1: not surprising to me that Bickmin, which was ahead of 625 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 1: its free money, is selling off. I do think those 626 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 1: correlations will break down or will lessen the moment we 627 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 1: find some stability in the market. But right now, if 628 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 1: your investor, you've got hundred fires to put out, did 629 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 1: you over commit to venture? Do you have enough liquidity 630 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 1: to pay your private equity commitments? Oh my goodness. I 631 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: used to be in risk parity and that doesn't seem 632 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 1: to be working at all anymore. And so very few 633 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 1: people want to put on new risk in a moment 634 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: of this kind of tumult. And so I think once 635 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 1: the tumult stops, I think that's a word, tumult um. 636 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 1: Once the chaos stops, then I think you're going to 637 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 1: see the allocators who have been doing all their homework. Listen, 638 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 1: I just went around the country and to a bunch 639 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 1: of conferences. Is I am wildly convicted that there's infrastructure 640 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 1: being put in place to bring lots of capital into 641 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: the space. So again it's it's it's surviving this this 642 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 1: unwigned that investors have to to manage. When you talk 643 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 1: about the unmined, though, Mike, you seem to be talking 644 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: about a lot of people that maybe just saw the 645 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,480 Speaker 1: opportunity here. These weren't sort of the early adopters, weren't 646 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: necessarily the crypto faithful, if you will, at least not 647 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,480 Speaker 1: in the traditional sense here. For those crypto faithful out 648 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 1: there here, do they look at this type of market 649 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 1: and think you add to positions, you buy into this dip, 650 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 1: or do you just kind of stay the course and 651 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,800 Speaker 1: wait for whatever shakeout is happening to end. Listen, for 652 00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 1: the guys who have been in cryptal a long time, 653 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 1: longer than me, this is par for the course. Um, 654 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 1: for most people who manage institutional money or manage lots 655 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 1: of money, this is unbelievably painful, and so you use 656 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 1: the same kind of risk analysis you do when you're 657 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 1: training other assets. Right, I would tell you though that 658 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 1: the new institutional players that are coming in are coming 659 00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 1: in with a very long term focus. I mean, and 660 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,840 Speaker 1: you can put black Rock and black Stone and Citadel 661 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 1: and Apollo into that bucket, right, those are four of 662 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:49,800 Speaker 1: the biggest names and investing and that they're getting in right, 663 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: They're they're working on infrastructure and trying to help create 664 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 1: institutional frameworks to bring their clients in. And so I 665 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 1: don't think this asset class is going away because we've 666 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 1: had all your clients, your analysts today, I've been asking 667 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 1: you about the recession probabilities and how you prepare for that. 668 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 1: How do you prepare for that? So I think we 669 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,640 Speaker 1: are going to go into a recession in some ways 670 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,040 Speaker 1: that will be good for crypto because it will finally 671 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 1: get interest rates calm and down again. Like I'm sure 672 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 1: we'll have crypto adoption both from investors. We're already seeing 673 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,680 Speaker 1: it with companies, right. So, But as a classes always 674 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 1: get prices, always get ahead of where the actual you know, 675 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 1: building of a company is. Right, Testa wasn't even you know, 676 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,799 Speaker 1: selling cars, and they had a decent market cap, and 677 00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 1: so you gotta got to keep the story up until 678 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:44,359 Speaker 1: you can build product that then generates the revenue. That's 679 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 1: the process that's happening in crypto, and so what crypto 680 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: needs is stability and the non crypto markets at that point, 681 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,280 Speaker 1: you'll see stability in crypto and you'll see fast adoption 682 00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,239 Speaker 1: and Caroline that was of course Galaxy Digitals, my over 683 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,879 Speaker 1: Grads Galaxy Digital micro Strategy. Both of these companies dropped 684 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: more than today in the market. So you see that 685 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 1: crypto decline actually exacerbated a lot more in those firms 686 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 1: exposed to cryptocurrencies. Talk to us about exacerbating. Do you 687 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 1: think that the pressure with Luda and the fact that 688 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,319 Speaker 1: a bitcoin backed stable coin means that you have more 689 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 1: setting pressure on people on the you know, on the treasury. 690 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 1: Is this going to be a really ugly feedback loop. 691 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,160 Speaker 1: That's a big concern here that there could be ripple 692 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 1: of ripple effects across de five markets. The question is 693 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: how low does that peg have to go, how much 694 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:36,960 Speaker 1: decoupling does it have to be, and how long does 695 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,399 Speaker 1: it have to last for the Lunar Foundation for us 696 00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: t to keep on having to sell bitcoin into that decline. 697 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 1: Hine always so smart when it comes to crypto. We 698 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 1: thank you for that and and D the interview with 699 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 1: Mike Novel Grads, Let's get back to the set off 700 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,320 Speaker 1: that we've seen across well every asset cast today basically 701 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,560 Speaker 1: apart from bonds, stocks tumbling to a new thirteen months 702 00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:06,759 Speaker 1: LOWD Michael Antonellie's with us a bout joining us to 703 00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,840 Speaker 1: discuss the tech side of this, in particular because it 704 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,960 Speaker 1: was the NASDA then I was one hundred now basically 705 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 1: in in correction mode, down ten percent in the last 706 00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 1: three days. How much further do we fall before capitulation? Well, 707 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 1: you don't have to go very far to look for 708 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,480 Speaker 1: superlatives about how bad it's been for the NASDAC. You're 709 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,640 Speaker 1: talking about about a drop year today, which is the 710 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 1: worst year. You'rest starter year on record by a lot. 711 00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 1: The next closest is nineteen seventy three, which was down 712 00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 1: about seventeen percent. So, uh, you know, not only that, 713 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: my friend Luke Kawa Bloomberg alumni, he said, uh, he said, 714 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,759 Speaker 1: this is the biggest non recessionary six month contraction the 715 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,520 Speaker 1: NASA one forward pe uh in history. So this, this 716 00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,840 Speaker 1: this repricing just been vicious, very vicious, and very rapid. 717 00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 1: But when you think about the last few years. Maybe 718 00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:53,279 Speaker 1: this starting to make a little bit of a sense. 719 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,440 Speaker 1: If you look at the past, say from twenty nineteen, 720 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,759 Speaker 1: at the end of one the Nasdaq is up about 721 00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,520 Speaker 1: a hundred and six and that's like one hundred annualizing 722 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,359 Speaker 1: it about thirty eight percent a year for three years. 723 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,839 Speaker 1: That's that's a lot. That's a lot. You know, when 724 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 1: you look at this pullback, it makes sense from the 725 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 1: perspective of the fantas hiking rates. We're trying to take 726 00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,600 Speaker 1: some steam out of the markets, were trying to tighten 727 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,160 Speaker 1: financial conditions. Mike, why didn't you tell us about this 728 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 1: at the start of this year? Well, using valuations is 729 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 1: a very very difficult tool. It's proven to be historically difficult, 730 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,920 Speaker 1: historically difficult. But what sort of depths we plumbed in 731 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,120 Speaker 1: terms of valuations visa v the rest of the years? 732 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:31,279 Speaker 1: And and indeed, why is company I can understand the 733 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,400 Speaker 1: thesis of like get out of companies that don't have 734 00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,360 Speaker 1: any E in their PAYE, but what about companies that 735 00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 1: really do, like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Why are they sort 736 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,240 Speaker 1: of being thrown out? I mean they those are certainly 737 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:44,960 Speaker 1: the largest holders and the ones that we watched the 738 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,759 Speaker 1: most because of those cracked. That really pretends a very 739 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,560 Speaker 1: bad market. If you look at some of these really 740 00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,399 Speaker 1: big names, you know, one of one of the things 741 00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,280 Speaker 1: I was looking at today is the fact that most 742 00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,120 Speaker 1: of their big draw downs, okay, the things like a 743 00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:56,840 Speaker 1: couple here, just throw a couple of like Facebook and 744 00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,400 Speaker 1: Apple and n Video their biggest draw downs recently. We're 745 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,239 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty nine, not during COVID, so they were 746 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:06,359 Speaker 1: during this pandemic crash. They were about rate heights, same 747 00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 1: thing back there. So it's very very similar. Multiple compression. 748 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,320 Speaker 1: The FED just takes these multiples out of the system, 749 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:15,120 Speaker 1: and if you look at some of the high fires, 750 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,080 Speaker 1: you noticed that all of their COVID multiple expansions completely gone, 751 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,399 Speaker 1: earnings are actually doing okay. So it's all this FED 752 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,080 Speaker 1: driven multiple compression. Where can it go to? I mean, 753 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 1: right now, I looked at and Video and Adobe and 754 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,800 Speaker 1: they're both at roughly the same four p E as Clorox. 755 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,160 Speaker 1: I don't know what that says a pretty well today, Michael, 756 00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:34,840 Speaker 1: I don't know whether that. I don't know where the 757 00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 1: all three of those are too expensive, but Clorox, Adobe 758 00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,720 Speaker 1: and Video kind of have the same formerd PU right now, Okay, 759 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 1: is there any technical lines, any any assets that you're 760 00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,719 Speaker 1: looking at, Because it was interesting today correlation started to 761 00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,920 Speaker 1: work in a different way. We actually saw commodities get 762 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,440 Speaker 1: caught up in this setting. We saw bonds finally becomes 763 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,879 Speaker 1: a sort of haven trade. What are you looking for 764 00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,120 Speaker 1: in terms of where to catch shop where tomorrow's trade 765 00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,279 Speaker 1: is going to go. I thought that was important to 766 00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 1: I really did. I watching the five year note when 767 00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:02,279 Speaker 1: I woke up, because I just kind of view that 768 00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,200 Speaker 1: as a good proxy for the terminal rate. And it 769 00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:05,759 Speaker 1: was up to three ten and then it's just the 770 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,879 Speaker 1: yield started plumbing down to two. Like that. That's maybe 771 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:10,839 Speaker 1: a little bit of flight to safety, which we haven't 772 00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: seen for a while. You see that oil trade down, 773 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,080 Speaker 1: that means maybe people are having to sell their winners, 774 00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,319 Speaker 1: having to sell the things that have been doing well 775 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,560 Speaker 1: this year. That's important that that's a little capitulatory to me. 776 00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:22,239 Speaker 1: I look at two things, like I said that five 777 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,120 Speaker 1: year note, I want to know that the terminal rates 778 00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,920 Speaker 1: at three or less. I need that stabilize. And then 779 00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,400 Speaker 1: I look at something called discretionary or staples, and I 780 00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,759 Speaker 1: equal weight them to kind of take out Amazon UH 781 00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,239 Speaker 1: and Tesla. So I equal weight them. And that's what 782 00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:36,879 Speaker 1: my friends of fatigue is called one of the best 783 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:38,880 Speaker 1: strategists in the world. It's kind of a look at 784 00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:40,960 Speaker 1: risk on risk off. So I want I'm watching that. 785 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,000 Speaker 1: I need that to make a low. It hasn't. It 786 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,319 Speaker 1: has not yet. So discretionary overstables equal way that there's 787 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,479 Speaker 1: a good proxy for risk on risk off. I need 788 00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 1: that to to to find the bottom too. Michael, I 789 00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,760 Speaker 1: love how you push us forward. We thank you, Michael Antonani. 790 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 1: Of course a bad meanwhile. That does it for this 791 00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,560 Speaker 1: edition of a Bag Technology, But we'll continue to follow 792 00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,640 Speaker 1: this own gu going sell off and the impact it's 793 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 1: having across the board. We're back here tomorrow trying buy 794 00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,840 Speaker 1: Tony Fidel of course, he's got his new book, Build 795 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:11,120 Speaker 1: and Unorthodox Guide to Making Things Worth Making, as well 796 00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,399 Speaker 1: as get his thoughts on the tech markets. Will also 797 00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,359 Speaker 1: be joined by Falconector's head of institutional coverage, cause from 798 00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,120 Speaker 1: Talking Crypto this is a Bloomberg