WEBVTT - Coach Bobby Moranda blasts run differential & hypes simple solution

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<v Speaker 1>Coach joining this right now. Bobby Miranda on the show

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<v Speaker 1>for the first time and you can catch them on

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<v Speaker 1>ESPN lot's College Baseball analysis. Tons of experience in the

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<v Speaker 1>D one game coach. Great to have you on the show,

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, and we're gonna do like some sections here,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll get to some coaching questions, but I do want

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<v Speaker 1>to start with MLB in the World Series and some

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<v Speaker 1>of what we have communicated about off the show. So

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<v Speaker 1>how you doing. Great to have you on, and why

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<v Speaker 1>don't you introduce to the world some of the math

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<v Speaker 1>that you use to analyze the game.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, first off, hats on backwards.

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<v Speaker 3>Come on, I'm old school as they come, So no

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<v Speaker 3>problem there whatsoever.

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<v Speaker 2>It got yelled at a lot about that.

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<v Speaker 3>Now I got to cover one thing really quick with

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<v Speaker 3>aj born and bred white Sox fan from shown, Yes,

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<v Speaker 3>m Nordhagen, Bart Johnson, Yeah, Kenny Henderson, Chet Lemon, Juice,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, all the guys.

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<v Speaker 2>So nice, big time.

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<v Speaker 4>So just you know, it's about damn time we got

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<v Speaker 4>more white Sox fans. We always have these clubs people

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<v Speaker 4>on here. It's about time we got some white Sox

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<v Speaker 4>level on the show.

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<v Speaker 3>Things are looking at and then the next thing I

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<v Speaker 3>just want to mention I was gonna say. The next

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<v Speaker 3>thing is, hey, I'm old school metrics, stats, all this

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<v Speaker 3>analytics stuff. I get it. It's not robots playing the game.

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<v Speaker 3>It's humans. It's about toughness. It's about you know, just

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<v Speaker 3>executing and being overlooked. That's what the Jays are all about,

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<v Speaker 3>I think so far kind of being underestimated and overlooked.

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<v Speaker 2>But what we're going to talk about is marrying the two.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, everyone talks about OPS, you know, offensively, and

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<v Speaker 3>then the last year or so they're starting to talk

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<v Speaker 3>about OPS aloud on the defensive side, maybe individually by pitchers.

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<v Speaker 3>We want to marry both defense and offense and show

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<v Speaker 3>that differential. And it's been just fascinating to see at

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<v Speaker 3>the college game the last three years and now at

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<v Speaker 3>the MLB level in the playoffs right now. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>if the Dodgers win, it will be eleven of twelve

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<v Speaker 3>where the OPS differential is correct. Offense first defense, the

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<v Speaker 3>difference between those two, how you do if the Blue

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<v Speaker 3>Jays win, we'll talk about why here in a set.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's kind of in a nutshell.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to see what you.

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<v Speaker 1>Guys call Okay, so dive in deeper here, So tell me,

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<v Speaker 1>tell me about OPS differential and how it's playing out

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<v Speaker 1>in the current postseason. And then also you can mention

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<v Speaker 1>how it has played out in college baseball right now.

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<v Speaker 1>And I've forgotten real granular for people obviously if you're

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<v Speaker 1>watching the show regularly, Yeah, you know on base plus

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<v Speaker 1>slugging percentage, And this is not adjusted, right, This is

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<v Speaker 1>just the plain old on base plus slugging percentage, both

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of offense and in terms of run prevention, right.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's one sixty two, So the inventory matters more

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<v Speaker 3>head to head is more accurate. So what I've looked

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<v Speaker 3>at in the college game, you look at the SEC.

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<v Speaker 3>So in the SEC the last three years, LSU national

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<v Speaker 3>champions in twenty five, Tennessee twenty four, LSU twenty three,

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<v Speaker 3>they're all one or two in the SEC and OPS differential,

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<v Speaker 3>they win a national championship. In the big leagues twenty two,

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<v Speaker 3>the Astros, twenty three, the Rangers, twenty four of the

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<v Speaker 3>Dodgers all top four, one, two and four in the

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<v Speaker 3>big leagues in OPS differential.

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<v Speaker 2>So not just like how.

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<v Speaker 3>Much we slug, it's what we do on both sides

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<v Speaker 3>of the ball from a defensive standpoint, and what you're

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<v Speaker 3>thinking about there. You're like, well, that's just all about pitching,

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<v Speaker 3>and this is for you Eric and AJ. It's about

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<v Speaker 3>the catching too. I think that's where the Blue Jays.

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<v Speaker 3>It's kind of underrated what Kirk does. The way he receives,

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<v Speaker 3>he's I think he's number two in the league in

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<v Speaker 3>receiving by stat cast blocking he's number one.

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<v Speaker 2>You know.

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<v Speaker 3>It just doesn't give up nineties. He doesn't get people

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<v Speaker 3>in scoring position. And then it's the defensive athletes. Started

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<v Speaker 3>sharing this with some of these coaches, you know, I

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<v Speaker 3>called j Johnson at LSU, Oak at Virginia, Mississippi State,

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<v Speaker 3>slash Link Charit at Florida State. I started throwing this

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<v Speaker 3>stuff out there and they're like, wow, man, this is cool.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, wait a second, this has to do with

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<v Speaker 3>our athletes. So if you have like Freddie Freeman on

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<v Speaker 3>the corner, you have Kirk behind the plate, you have

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<v Speaker 3>many Machada at third or maybe Clement who's a UVA

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<v Speaker 3>player at third, and then you got guys in the

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<v Speaker 3>outfield that are deers running around. You're taking away slug

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<v Speaker 3>and so when you take away slug that's the secret sauce,

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<v Speaker 3>and I feel that's what's happened with the Blue Jays.

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<v Speaker 3>Think about it. You've added Schurezer, You've added Bieber. That's

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<v Speaker 3>two say young pitchers, and then a prodigy, you know that,

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<v Speaker 3>Rocky Savage.

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<v Speaker 2>You know.

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<v Speaker 3>See you add those three guys. Basically at the end

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<v Speaker 3>of the season, it's a totally different story. They go

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<v Speaker 3>from you know, eighth in the league in OPS differential

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<v Speaker 3>and now they're, you know, getting ready to be one

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<v Speaker 3>game away from a possible championship against the number two

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<v Speaker 3>ranked OPS differential team, the Dodgers. And the other thing

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<v Speaker 3>that I would say is that the Blue Jays took

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<v Speaker 3>out the number one OPS differential the only one that

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<v Speaker 3>was messed up in the playoffs with this, and that

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<v Speaker 3>was the Yankees.

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<v Speaker 2>Yankees were number one of the big leagues in this

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<v Speaker 2>in this metric.

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<v Speaker 3>They wipe them out and then you see a championship

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<v Speaker 3>after that happened in college when LSU wiped out Wake

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<v Speaker 3>Forrest in twenty twenty three. That was Paul Skin's Red

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<v Speaker 3>Louder game in Omaha, and boom, LSU goes on to

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<v Speaker 3>win the national championship. Same thing last year, LSU wiped

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<v Speaker 3>out Arkansas, number one in the country. In this differential boom,

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<v Speaker 3>LSU goes on to win the national championship. So you

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<v Speaker 3>take off the king, and then these teams have a

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<v Speaker 3>tendency to go get hot and make a statement.

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<v Speaker 5>How small is too small a sample size? Cause in

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<v Speaker 5>college I mean I think, really the big you're really

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<v Speaker 5>going to small?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the big league, the big league stuff is small.

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<v Speaker 3>Because I just started doing it. I called True Media,

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<v Speaker 3>I call her guy the ESPNA, said hey, can you

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<v Speaker 3>give me the playoff teams? And he did, and I

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<v Speaker 3>kept texting Scott.

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<v Speaker 2>I was like, this is crazy.

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<v Speaker 3>We were one hundred percent in the wild card and

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<v Speaker 3>then you know one, you know, one messed up in

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<v Speaker 3>the next round, the divisional round, you know, then one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred percent and then just kept going. In college baseball,

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<v Speaker 3>it's all series. It's not just the game, it's the series.

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<v Speaker 3>So the Super Regionals have been like thirteen of sixteen

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty three and twenty four as far as being accurate,

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, I mean, it's a small sample size as

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<v Speaker 3>far as years, but the accuracy has been almost at

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<v Speaker 3>ninety percent as far as series winners.

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<v Speaker 5>That's pretty good.

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<v Speaker 4>David's wait, it's more telling than run differential because Scott

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<v Speaker 4>loves run differential.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, I don't run differential. Run to Scott loves like

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<v Speaker 3>Scott text me, it's lazy. It's lazy.

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<v Speaker 2>Scott loves it. He loves it. I don't.

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<v Speaker 4>I just find it funny to make you angry when

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<v Speaker 4>I say that you like it.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a lazy stat it is. But so this

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<v Speaker 1>is less lazy.

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<v Speaker 4>This is less lazy, and it's it's interesting that this

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<v Speaker 4>is so. Why don't team just build it? Why doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>every team build their program around this? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 2>Why don't they? Yeah, build your build. I guarantee your

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<v Speaker 2>front offices.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think Vegas is doing this right now to

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<v Speaker 3>create odds or something. But I called all these guys,

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<v Speaker 3>Jay Johnson, Brian O'Connor, Slosh Link, Jared Sully, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>just everybody, and they're like, Tony, I'll give you a

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<v Speaker 3>funny Tony story. So Tony's going into a regional at Clemson.

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<v Speaker 3>This is three years ago, and I said, Tony, I

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<v Speaker 3>said that you're gonna win the regional. You know, and

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<v Speaker 3>I love those guys at Clemson, but you will win

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<v Speaker 3>the regional because of this, you know, when I'm throwing

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<v Speaker 3>the numbers out of him. He goes and shows it

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<v Speaker 3>to his staff and texts me back and goes. He goes,

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know what you're talking about, but he goes,

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<v Speaker 3>I showed it to everybody. It made us confident that

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<v Speaker 3>we were highed in this than they were, and sure

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<v Speaker 3>enough that it played out. Brian O'Connor was playing duke

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<v Speaker 3>two years ago to go to Omaha on a Super

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<v Speaker 3>and Brian was really into this. And Brian goes, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>we lost the first game, but if you're right, this

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<v Speaker 3>will play out. I watched the game on TV on

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<v Speaker 3>a Monday. They went to game three in a Super.

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<v Speaker 3>Twenty minutes after the game. He shoots me a text.

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<v Speaker 3>He goes, ops differential, Man, It's there's something to this.

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<v Speaker 3>It played out because they lost the first game, that

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<v Speaker 3>won the next two, and it's.

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<v Speaker 2>All about traffic creating traffic. It's old school.

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<v Speaker 3>There's nothing about this that is like launchangle or all

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<v Speaker 3>this other bs.

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<v Speaker 2>You know what I mean.

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<v Speaker 3>It's this is old school baseball. Do you take your walk,

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<v Speaker 3>do you make contact? You know, do you get on base?

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<v Speaker 3>Do you slug? And do you prevent that stuff on

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<v Speaker 3>the defensive side. And I feel like for years and

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<v Speaker 3>I didn't do this as a coach. I just came

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<v Speaker 3>up with this after I got into broadcasting. I said,

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<v Speaker 3>I got to know these teams better. How can I

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<v Speaker 3>do it? Looked at the twenty two Old Miss team

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<v Speaker 3>that they won the national championship and they were zeroed

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<v Speaker 3>out in the SEC. When you're zero, okay, that means

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<v Speaker 3>you're going to Vegas as like a slot machine. You're

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<v Speaker 3>giving up what you get offensively, if that makes sense.

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<v Speaker 2>All right? So I said, how did you make that run, Mike?

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<v Speaker 3>And he goes, we just eliminated all of our pitchers

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<v Speaker 3>that we're getting it done.

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<v Speaker 2>We threw four or five guys total, made a.

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<v Speaker 3>Run to the national championship and they were slugging number

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<v Speaker 3>one in the country that year. They were giving up

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<v Speaker 3>slug too. Eliminated that and started winning at a high level.

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<v Speaker 3>And this is what like, all these teams are doing

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<v Speaker 3>pretty much at a ninety percent clip.

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<v Speaker 5>When you mentioned all those names, one of the names

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<v Speaker 5>you mentioned was Tony Vattello. Yes, this transition, what's his

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<v Speaker 5>transition going to be like to the big leagues? And

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<v Speaker 5>is he the is he the new poster child. Because

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<v Speaker 5>of this doesn't work, all college coaches cooked. If this

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<v Speaker 5>does work, we're going to see an influx like the

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<v Speaker 5>minor league solve. Everybody that makes a good PowerPoint presentation

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<v Speaker 5>all of a sudden becomes a minor league coordinator of

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<v Speaker 5>a position.

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<v Speaker 2>So correct, Where's Tony at with this? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>I agree with you, Eric, I mean, and I've heard

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<v Speaker 3>you guys talk about this already, and it is. It

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<v Speaker 3>is fascinating, right, He's the pioneer. But the guy that

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<v Speaker 3>I trust is Buster. And I heard you say this

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<v Speaker 3>a few like a week ago or whatever. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>we recruited Buster out of high school to go to

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<v Speaker 3>Georgia Tech when I was there off from full ride.

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<v Speaker 3>He turns down with the Florida State. What an unbelievable kid,

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<v Speaker 3>unbelievable person, super smart. This guy knows what he's doing.

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<v Speaker 3>I trust him. Tony, on the other hand, I will

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<v Speaker 3>tell you straight up. You know he rubbed some people

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<v Speaker 3>the wrong way at times. Whatever with me. I've known

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<v Speaker 3>since he was twenty three out on the road, and

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<v Speaker 3>I absolutely love the guy. He has been super consistent

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<v Speaker 3>since he was twenty three. You know, I was a

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<v Speaker 3>Power five coach for a long time in the ACC.

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<v Speaker 3>Then I went to be a mid major head coach.

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<v Speaker 3>Still treated me the same no matter what uniform I

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<v Speaker 3>was wearing. His team came to Western Carolina and played

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<v Speaker 3>us in Kullowey, which a lot of guys will not

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<v Speaker 3>do at that level. I just feel like he's a

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<v Speaker 3>guy that people can get behind, and he's a guys guy.

0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.120
<v Speaker 3>I mean, he's in there in the fight with you.

0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:21.600
<v Speaker 3>How that translates to one sixty two. I've never played

0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:23.959
<v Speaker 3>in the big leagues. You guys have that's going to

0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:26.240
<v Speaker 3>be the thing. But my boy, Murph, I think is

0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:29.040
<v Speaker 3>the reason this is happening. I think Murph broke that

0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.040
<v Speaker 3>glass ceiling. You know, obviously he was in the minor

0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:34.480
<v Speaker 3>leagues for a while, he bench coached all that stuff,

0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:39.080
<v Speaker 3>but he his foundation was a college coach. And I

0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.040
<v Speaker 3>feel like there's a lot of guys out there if

0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:45.559
<v Speaker 3>this does work, that could be quality candidates to do.

0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:48.720
<v Speaker 3>You know, the copycat league will go after it, right

0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:49.720
<v Speaker 3>because you know, like a.

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.400
<v Speaker 2>Tim Corbin or someone like that.

0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:56.040
<v Speaker 3>You know, Slash at Texas, Jay Johnson at LSU would

0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.800
<v Speaker 3>be stand Danny Hall from back. You know, he's a retired,

0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.640
<v Speaker 3>but boy, you know these are quality, quality basement baseball men.

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.360
<v Speaker 4>Well, so you can't hire Slash because he might leave

0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:07.360
<v Speaker 4>in the middle and say, wait no, you might have

0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.679
<v Speaker 4>done that a timer soon for maybe for Texas A

0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:14.679
<v Speaker 4>and M fans and TCU fans. But I'm just I mean,

0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:16.360
<v Speaker 4>he's had a history of not You can't.

0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:19.200
<v Speaker 2>Really do that in the big leagues, for sure. You

0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:20.720
<v Speaker 2>can't just them.

0:12:20.880 --> 0:12:22.560
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you can't really just do that.

0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:26.360
<v Speaker 1>Well, a lot of pressure on Tony. If it works,

0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.200
<v Speaker 1>if the league, we'll have Tony Vytello's. If it doesn't,

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:31.280
<v Speaker 1>we might never see it again.

0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:32.440
<v Speaker 2>Sure, coach MO.

0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:34.440
<v Speaker 1>Great to have you on, man, Thanks for the time,

0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for telling everyone how much. Now I got to

0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.880
<v Speaker 1>look for this pythagora and theorem, which it's not.

0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:42.640
<v Speaker 2>You can't find it.

0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:44.960
<v Speaker 3>That's the thing that you know, I wanted on every

0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 3>stat sheet at the end of the sheet that ought

0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.680
<v Speaker 3>to have OPS allowed by that picture and ops allowed

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.120
<v Speaker 3>by the staff, and then OPS obviously is on the

0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:56.160
<v Speaker 3>offensive side, and then the differential ought to be there.

0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:59.000
<v Speaker 3>We ought to know that differential of hey, where are

0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:02.440
<v Speaker 3>these teams live? I mean, just one more thing, aj

0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 3>Our White Sox had the worst differential. Let me find it.

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.240
<v Speaker 3>Our White Sox last year.

0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:11.800
<v Speaker 5>I mean the worst.

0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:17.440
<v Speaker 4>Wait, twenty or twenty four, that was twenty four. And

0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:19.120
<v Speaker 4>by the way, they also lost the most games of

0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.640
<v Speaker 4>all time, so I mean that's a big examples. Right,

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 4>here's the difference there are ops difference offices.

0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:26.920
<v Speaker 5>How many games they lost last.

0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.760
<v Speaker 3>Year, That's right, it's amazing the wins and losses, how

0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:32.880
<v Speaker 3>they match up to ops on the on the allowed side,

0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:36.559
<v Speaker 3>that secret sauce, and how that difference is the standings.

0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.200
<v Speaker 2>We're not even talking about wins and losses in college

0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:40.559
<v Speaker 2>and in the big leagues. It's crazy.

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.080
<v Speaker 3>And so for that not to be out there, and

0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 3>even I'm embarrassed and saw all these other coaches they've

0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:46.559
<v Speaker 3>never even heard of it.

0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 2>When I started talking to them about it.

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 3>I'm talking about the top guys in college and we're

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.080
<v Speaker 3>all sitting there like, why weren't we thinking about this

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:54.520
<v Speaker 3>all along?

0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 2>And it's just it's like the forest through the trees,

0:13:57.360 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 2>it's right there in.

0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:01.120
<v Speaker 3>Front of our face, and uh, I mean, it's pretty

0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:02.319
<v Speaker 3>obvious what's going on.

0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:06.880
<v Speaker 1>So anyways, your parential trash lazy coach Moller the man,

0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:08.440
<v Speaker 1>thanks for joining us. Great to have you on.

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.000
<v Speaker 2>Thank you rock Man, You guys crush it.