1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jai Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg. The 5 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: first loss in jobs for an entire month since April, 6 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: we are seeing the second wave of job losses, the 7 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 1: second wave of the coronavirus, and the second wave of pain, 8 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 1: hopefully jerking Congress into more action. At least that's the 9 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 1: implication from Marcus Jeffrey Rosenberg Blackport black Rock, portfolio manager 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 1: of the Systematic Multi Strategy Fund, joining us right now. 11 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: Your thoughts, Jeff on this report, Yeah, I think you 12 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: guys have it exactly right. You look at that market 13 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: reaction and you see slightly higher yields on what is 14 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: a very disappointing board. And it's really about looking through 15 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: this report to its implications for monitors for fiscal policy. 16 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: And yes, you know, fiscal policy expectations were high. This 17 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 1: report just underscores the likelihood that will see significant additional 18 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus in the new administration from the new administration, 19 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: from the new Congress, and that's why you're seeing a 20 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: little bit higher yields. You know, the report is remarkably 21 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: weak with regards to leisure and hospitality, down a five 22 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: thousand jobs. That's really what's taking the headline number down. 23 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: And that's just very clearly about the COVID resurgence here 24 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: that we're seeing, and that's just underscoring again the need 25 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:39,919 Speaker 1: for more fiscal policy. So it's a it's a very 26 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: kind of different bond market reaction, but but I think 27 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: it makes a lot of sense that we're looking past 28 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: the near term weakness towards the policy response and that 29 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: means better growth and and higher rates. And that's really 30 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: higher rates and steeper curve that's been a trend. I 31 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: don't think this report is going to take us off 32 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: that trend. Futures up, nine, futures up, a little bit 33 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: of an ease back inequities at this moment. Jeff Rosenberg, 34 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: I know at Carnegie mel And you took Horse and 35 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:09,679 Speaker 1: Cart two oh two an important course. The research this 36 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: morning is extraordinary about inflation expectations and how they fold 37 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: into the yield market, about oil surging, about a weaker 38 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: dollar and the presumption of a weekend dollar, which is 39 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: the horse and which is the cart real world dynamics 40 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 1: like dollar in oil or is it the fixed income market? Well, 41 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: the first of all on on on oil that's going 42 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: to affect the headline levels of inflation markets and longer 43 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: term inflation expectations are really gonna focus on on core. Now. 44 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: The expectations here and the developments are really about a 45 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: reflationary trade rolling through the fixed income markets. You see 46 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: it in terms of market based measures of inflation tips, 47 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: break even measures breaking out to the upside. You see 48 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: it in phenomena yield measures, and see it in the 49 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: steepening of the yield curve. The overall conclusion here is 50 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 1: expectations for significant monetary and fiscal policy coordination to deliver 51 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: a reflationary thrust to the economy that then flows through 52 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: into financial markets. But it starts with financial markets expectations, 53 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: and that's what you're seeing building. It's been building for 54 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: some time. It's certainly got some acceleration hosts the Georgia 55 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 1: runoff election results and certainly today UH and this negative 56 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: news is going to be looked through to its implications 57 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: to further the reflationary fiscal policy response. You know, I 58 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: don't want to read too much into the immediate market response, 59 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: but I do think it's interesting, Jeff, that you see 60 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: the bond market reacting more than the equity markets, That 61 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: equities actually took a little bit of a dip in 62 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: futures trading, whereas you saw bonds take a definitive move 63 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: price lower, yield higher on the expectation of stimulus. Have 64 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: we reached a point where higher yields with such a 65 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: lagging economy on the in the backdrop, becomes a headwind 66 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: for stocks. In other words, it sort of threatens the 67 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: thesis of going into stocks at such high valuation simply 68 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: because there is no alternative. Jeff, It's it's a great question. 69 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: I don't think we're there yet. You've got to take 70 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: a step back from these changes in in yield levels 71 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: that you know, from an environment where yields were exceptionally depressed, 72 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: and certainly when we think about the tenure yield being 73 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: significantly below one percent throughout the post COVID environment, you 74 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: know we've recently breached that level, but these yields are 75 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: still exceptionally low out the yield curve, and the FED 76 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: is telling you they're happy to see that now, they're 77 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: not going to be happy to see a disruptive increase 78 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: in interest rates basis points higher on the day. But 79 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: you look at all of the forecast for the year 80 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,480 Speaker 1: and they center around twenty basis points for the year. 81 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: That's fine in terms of fiscal stimulus boosting market expectations 82 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: without the market expectations on doing the financial stability that 83 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: the FED is targeting here. So I think if we 84 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: have these kind of gradual increases in rates, that's not 85 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: going to get in the way of financial stability and 86 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: having to have the FED intervene. Jeff Rosenberg where this 87 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: is black Rock, and also Michael McKee of Bloomberg with 88 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 1: his wonderful analysis. He says, some time to dive into 89 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 1: the report. Jeff Rosenberg, Michael McKee mentioned the five hundred 90 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: thousand statistics on bars and restaurants. I think no surprise 91 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: to anyone in New York. Michael McKee, Can you extrapolate 92 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 1: anyway to the early February report, early February next month 93 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,840 Speaker 1: or a year as January? Can you get January are 94 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: right now? In a sense you can, because it doesn't 95 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: look like any of the lockdown situation has changed and 96 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: as a matter of fact, we're seeing more cases, more 97 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 1: deaths every day, we're setting records, So it looks like 98 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: we're gonna be perhaps even in worse shape. A lot 99 00:05:57,440 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: of what happened in December came about in the early 100 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 1: part of the month UH and the survey has taken 101 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 1: the week of the that includes the twelfth of the month, 102 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 1: So at the twelfth of the month in UH in 103 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: January is not looking good right now, and so I 104 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: would imagine that we will not see any additional hiring. However, 105 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: I have people already lost their jobs. That's going to 106 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 1: be the question if if we lost so many in December, 107 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: do we see a significant number of people who go 108 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 1: off payrolls or are they just remaining off payrolls. So 109 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: let's just hie us all together and just sort of 110 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: highlight how a pivotal week this really has been, how 111 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: an exceptional start to a year following an unprecedented and 112 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 1: Jeff Rosenberg we started this segment talking about how people 113 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: have had to rewrite their year, had THECES in the 114 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: past week after just writing them days earlier, after what 115 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,359 Speaker 1: happened with the Georgia election, and given what we're seeing 116 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: with the surprise now with a labor market that is 117 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: much weaker than many had expected. Jeff, are you changing 118 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 1: any of your sees based on the week's action. Well, 119 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: you know, I don't think that. The thing that has 120 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 1: happened in the over the course of the week is 121 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: the expectations were already going into the year that growth 122 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: would be better than expected, and so the Georgia elections 123 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: have only added to the confidence that market participants have 124 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: that growth due to fiscal policy support will be better 125 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: than expected. And that's that's providing some cushion, that's providing 126 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: some safety net to the positive sentiment around financial markets 127 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: and for the bond market for the expectations that yields 128 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: will continue to gradually rise. So I don't think we're 129 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: seeing a significant change from that. I think we're seeing 130 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: it reinforced with today's news and with the news on 131 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: the elections in the outlook for fiscal policy. Jeffrey Rosenberg, 132 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: thank you so much. With Blackbrook, greatly appreciate your time 133 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: with us on this job's report, and of course are 134 00:07:51,680 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: FED meetings as well, string of PLOSO for the discussion. 135 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: It will be an eventful Friday. The resignations of the 136 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: Secretary of Transportation, the Secretary of Education. This morning, we 137 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: were resigned to speak to french Kill, the Republican from Arkansas, 138 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: French Hill of Little Rock, and of course has been 139 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: a consistent Republican voice giving us conversation on Bloomberg surveillance. 140 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 1: Congressmanni Hill. There seems to be a divide, as we 141 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: just saw from Senator Sass of Nebraska the language at 142 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: the Senator from Nebraska used as compared to the Senator 143 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 1: from Missouri Holly and the Senator from Texas Uh Ted Cruz. 144 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 1: How do you bring together a Republican party to be 145 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: in minority with President Biden. Well, happy new year, Tom, 146 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: thanks for having me. This is a critical issue and 147 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: at this moment in American district, I think all the 148 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: leaders in boat parties, on both sides of the Capitol 149 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: and on both sides of the aisle need to focus 150 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: on our peaceful transfer of the presidency on noon January 151 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: and we need to and not add to the brinksmanship 152 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: that we've seen from Speaker Pelosi in the last day 153 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 1: on the amendment, or that we saw from Senator Cruz 154 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: or Senator Holly on this uh false narrative that somehow 155 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: we're going to have a different outcome on January six 156 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 1: by action of the Congress, which was never in the Constitution, 157 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: was never going to happen. And I think the rhetoric 158 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: since the election contributed to the disaster we saw here 159 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,319 Speaker 1: the afternoon of January six, where people were misled, they 160 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: had a misunderstanding of what might happen on January six. 161 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: In Washington, d C. It's almost of a Whig Party 162 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: of another time and place, and I would suggest the 163 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,319 Speaker 1: Whig Party not so much associated with Arkansas, but mostly 164 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:51,479 Speaker 1: to the eastern Kentucky. Do you risk becoming a minority 165 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: party with this great fracture between say Ted Cruz and 166 00:09:55,520 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: Ben Sas. I think we need to remind our ourselves 167 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: of what the Republican tenants are and go back to 168 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: advocating for those limited government, limited scope of regulatory and 169 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: tax burdens on the American people, equal justice under the law, 170 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: more opportunities for people of all incomes, in a strong, 171 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: robust national security, in leadership in the world. Those are 172 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: the tenants of the Republican platform. I've heard a Senator 173 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: a Cruise speak passionately about them. I've heard Senator Sas 174 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 1: speak passionately about them. That's what the Republican Party needs 175 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: to get back out and advocate for and step away 176 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 1: from what we've seen since the election. Congressman, are you 177 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: happy with how President Trump and the Republican leadership has 178 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: handled the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine? Well, look, first, 179 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 1: let's say that the vaccine will go down in history. 180 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: This development effort from late January to the rollout of 181 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: a vaccine around the first of December is one of 182 00:10:55,840 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 1: the great global health initiatives and success stories in history. 183 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: So the CARES acts ten billion dollars for coronavirus pandemic 184 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 1: vaccine development. The President's quick UH direction of the FDA 185 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: and ni H to work on that is a success story. 186 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: The roll out UH and the manufacturing of it around 187 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: the world I think has been impressive. It's gotten to 188 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 1: the States, but we need to make sure the States 189 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: focus where it's needed, on essential workers and our elderly population. 190 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 1: You all, we're talking about incidences of death and you 191 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: look at that compared to accidental death by any choice, 192 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: and again it's concentrated in the older age groups are 193 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: more vulnerable to the coronavirus. So after essential workers. There's 194 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: no doubt that's where the vaccine should be focused. So Congressman, 195 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: that is true. And yet the states really have been 196 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: the ones in charge, and only about a third of 197 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: the vaccine that's been circulated on average has been deployed, 198 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: and there has been reports of, for example, doctors who 199 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: are not in the main lines having to call up 200 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: their pharmacies and their contacts and say, how do I 201 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: get vaccine? Do you regret that there isn't a more 202 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: federally central organized rollout plan that would have smoothed out 203 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: some of these kinks. Well, it possibly could have been better. 204 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 1: We've never done this before, but the defense logistics getting 205 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: the vaccine with the private sector produced, approved, and shipped 206 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 1: has been again, I think, an extraordinary accomplishment. In Arkansas, 207 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: speaking to our governor, we're generally pleased with the distribution 208 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: to hospitals and to pharmacies, and we're working hard to 209 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: get that out to the people who needed first. And 210 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: of course, you know, the storage has been a challenge. 211 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: Everyone recognizes that, particularly in the Visor vaccine, and so 212 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: that's limited distribution. With the Biderta vaccine that's going to 213 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: go out to more rural counties, and more regular pharmacy 214 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: used that I think will expand the vaccine. You've been 215 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: faster French show. To get back to the politics of 216 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,319 Speaker 1: the moment, and we consider the two gentlemen from Vermont, 217 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: Lady and Sanders. Maybe we'll have chairmanships within a new Senate. 218 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: Perhaps the Democrats will manage to the middle. That seems 219 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: to be how they won this time around. How does 220 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: the Republican Party within the primary process managed to the middle. 221 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: Another good point. I mean, this is a center right country. 222 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: We saw that with Nancy. Yes, we saw that. And 223 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: it's up to both in both parties. They both have 224 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: a primary challenge from the left and the Democratic Party 225 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: and from the right. I guess you say the more 226 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 1: right in the Republican Party. We do that, I think 227 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,719 Speaker 1: by again focusing on our basic tenants that I went 228 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 1: over a moment ago. That's what we have to do 229 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: is do more education and more communication with our primary 230 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: voters about what the Republican Party's goals are. Why are 231 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,719 Speaker 1: we being elected, why do we run? That's our obligation 232 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: as Canada. Okay, but this is so important, carkisman Hill 233 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: very quickly here. This is so important because there is 234 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: a social overlay of social policy and issues over general 235 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: Republican issues, how do you combine those forward to two 236 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: thousand twenty two. In two thousand twenty four and win. Well, 237 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 1: I think we won with our message of what we 238 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 1: said was our commitment to America in we picked up. 239 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: We didn't have a single incumbent lose in the House 240 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: this year, and we have a new, diverse, aggressive group 241 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: of new members in the House. I think we'll continue 242 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: that momentum going into two particularly if you see the 243 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: Biden administration, as you say, not government from the center, 244 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: with a divided Senate in a divided House, but try 245 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 1: to again of interesting of progressive left policies. French Hill, 246 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: have a pleasant weekend after this historic the Congressman Hill 247 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: of Arkansas with us, and we thank you. This first 248 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: week of Nuary, it is about Eurasia group. Dr Bremer 249 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 1: and Mr coushkinsch Coupchins. I'll get it out. I can't 250 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: talking to Friday folks ever. Uh, they're wonderful. Top risks 251 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: of two thousand twenty one in that is Europe in 252 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: the changing of the Guard of Angelo, miracle. Moving on, 253 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: Mr McCraw with huge issues. Ms Raman joins with an 254 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: update with Eurasia Group. Midge, we haven't talked to about 255 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: enough about the travails of France and mccrawn. Why should 256 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: America worry about the fragility of Mr McCraw Because I 257 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 1: think Tom Europe's medium term stability depends more on what 258 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: happens in the French election than the German one. That 259 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: you know, the outcome of the German election is kind 260 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: of known. Is going to be a black Green government. 261 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: We don't know who will replace Miracle, but it doesn't 262 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: really matter that much because it will be it will 263 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: be a mainstream leader sitting on top of a very 264 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: pro European coalition in France. In France, you have a 265 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: health crisis, an economic crisis, and a security crisis, I 266 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 1: think for the terrorist incidents that took place a very 267 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: back end of last year, and they're all converging and 268 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: I think brings into questions the Macron question. And I 269 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: think on top of that, of course, because instability in 270 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: France would be a big problem for Europe in a 271 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: big problem for America. Does France have a Trumpian equivalent? 272 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: I mean Guy Johnson and I folks there for the 273 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: French elections, and the stunning side of Mr McCraw walking 274 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 1: across that magnificent courtyard, I mean a guest from the 275 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: nineteenth or eighteenth century and in the j RAM. And 276 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: the question is that the right, if you will of 277 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: France does it exist. You've got a very weak center 278 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: right and a very weak center left. Lapen is always, 279 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: as you know, Tom waiting in the wings, and next 280 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: year will be no different. What's interesting is Marine Lapin 281 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: has not really been able to capitalize on COVID. She's 282 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: not really been able to capitalize on the challenges and 283 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: the troubles that Macron has been facing both personally and 284 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:08,719 Speaker 1: his government. But the question is depending on how he 285 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 1: deals with potential risk of the third lockdown, in this 286 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,360 Speaker 1: mutant strain that's crossed the channel from Great Britain now 287 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: into France, the glacial pace of the vaccine rollout, there's 288 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: a lot of expectation of high profile business closures and 289 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 1: math unemployment in the first four to six months of 290 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 1: this year in France. You know, depending on how Macron 291 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: deals with those challenges could impact the dynamic heading into 292 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 1: the race next year. And I think most people expect, 293 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 1: and I think this is correct, that it will be 294 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: a Macron La Penn runoff again in May next year. Mitch, 295 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,640 Speaker 1: you mentioned just across the channel to the UK lockdown. 296 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 1: There rollout of the vaccine slower as we see in 297 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: many parts of the world. Give us a sense of 298 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: how things are going in the early days of the 299 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: lockdown in the UK. I mean, it's a big mess, frankly, 300 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: because Boris Johnson is just not across the crisis is 301 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 1: you know, he's not good at taking and leaning into decisions. 302 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 1: He's waiting until the very last moment. He gave a 303 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: very big interview with a very high profile presenter here 304 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 1: on Sunday where he effectively told everybody will be fined 305 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: to return to school the following day. That evening he 306 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: plunged the country back into a third lockdown. So I 307 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 1: think the government's control of the pandemic, Boris Johnson's competence, 308 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 1: the competence of his administration, his cabinet, they're all really 309 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: I think, in the firing line. And that's on top 310 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 1: of he has delivered the deal on Brexit, that's correct, 311 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: but now the implications of that deal are really beginning 312 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: to be felt. Delays at the port's delays getting into 313 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: the UK, and I think that just it creates a 314 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 1: set of questions really about the credibility and competence of 315 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 1: the government that I think are going to stay with 316 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:51,400 Speaker 1: Johnson for some time. What type of risk did those 317 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: challenges to Prime Minister Johnson? What are they posed to 318 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: his his government going forward? I think there's not a 319 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 1: lead a ship concern in the short term, but but 320 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: the pandemic now and I think the government of the 321 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 1: perception of how the government has managed the pandemic really 322 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 1: really hangs on the big bet the government has made 323 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: on the vaccinations. So they really got I think, start 324 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: getting jobs in people's arms and getting the population vaccinated. 325 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: And if the government is able to do that effectively, 326 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: So let's say we're moving towards the east to break 327 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: in a large part of the vulnerable population has been 328 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: vaccinated by that time, as the government is claiming will 329 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: be the case, then he may be able to emerge. 330 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:38,640 Speaker 1: You know, if you're thinking a year, two years down 331 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:44,360 Speaker 1: the track, relatively unscathed from this crisis. If the vaccination 332 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 1: that does not work out, um, then I think the 333 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 1: government's in trouble. And then I think Boris Shawn's in trouble, 334 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 1: and that will be a question in Mr Rahman, where 335 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: does demand come from in Europe? I mean, basically, it's 336 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: underperformed America for a jillion years. I know there's glimmers 337 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: of you know, real pop and all that, there isn't 338 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 1: much of a tech sector. Is well, what is the 339 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: might of the European consumer now to help jump start 340 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: everything like happens routinely in the United States. I think 341 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 1: this is a great question, Tom, And you know senior 342 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: European policymakers I talked to they basically think the EU 343 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: has missed the boat on digitization. I think you're right. 344 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: You know, we don't have that technical, technological, that innovation 345 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,400 Speaker 1: dynamic that you see in the state where the EU 346 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: is now placing it. That is on the green transition, 347 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: on greening the economy, and you'll see the big seven 348 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion recovery fund that was agreed at 349 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 1: the end of last year is really being used and 350 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 1: seen as a vehicle to try and promote that green transition. 351 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: And the UK is obviously at the forefront of that 352 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: and will be with the cop climates from at the 353 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: end of the year, are implementing a one billion recovery 354 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: plan that again is very much focused on the green transition. 355 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,080 Speaker 1: So I think that's where the EU sees it, so 356 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 1: being a possible leader, whether or not will work out again, 357 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 1: we'll we'll need to see about the area right point 358 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: to that's one of big growth to the Ouropean economy 359 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,360 Speaker 1: over the medium term. Mid Roman. Thank you so much 360 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 1: and thank you to all of your raising groups. Just 361 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: brilliant work, and we're just going to frame where America's 362 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: economy is. Tiffany Wilding joins from Pimco. Tiffany, I don't 363 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 1: want a lot of numbers. I just want to know 364 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 1: what the next six months looks like. You guys are 365 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: acclaimed for the new normal. Is this the new normal? Well, 366 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 1: I certainly hope not, Tom. I mean, you know, the 367 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: it was clearly a very weak employment report for example 368 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 1: this morning, which I think you know, clearly show that 369 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: the economy is still hurting from the virus pandemic, you know, 370 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: and as a result of you know, the targeted business 371 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: closures that had to had to happen in order to 372 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,959 Speaker 1: try to contain that pandemic. We certainly hope that's not 373 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 1: the new normal. But you asked me to to think 374 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 1: about the next six months ahead, you know. And I 375 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 1: think we're really you know, we're really optimistic that the 376 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 1: key word here will be re acceleration. Um. And I 377 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 1: say that because you know, we you know, we we 378 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: do have a vaccine. We hope that the vaccine uh 379 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 1: distribution can be rammed up, you know. But in addition 380 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: to that, we have fiscal policymakers in Washington which we 381 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 1: think will will will certainly support the recovery, continue support 382 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 1: the recovery. We just got a nine billion dollar stimulus 383 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,959 Speaker 1: bill in late December to help bridge the gap for people, uh, 384 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: you know, while we're kind of dealing with the winter 385 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: and the COVID virus. We think you could see under 386 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: a democratic control of Washington, another trillion dollars you know, 387 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 1: that could be that could come about in March, and 388 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 1: that's really going to help the economy sort of bridge 389 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,439 Speaker 1: this and re accelerate into the back end. And I 390 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 1: don't want you to put a number on it, because 391 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: I don't need the General Council PIMCO calling me up 392 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 1: and saying I was out of bounds. But Tiffany to 393 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: take Claudius some is just one example the liberal economy 394 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 1: US in Europe, in America, who are saying, you guys 395 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: are nuts at the margin of this billion or that trillion, 396 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: and we're going to need a certain percentage of g 397 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: d P, which is six or seven or eight trillion 398 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: dollars of aid no matter how it comes. Are we 399 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 1: closer to that view with the news of the last week, Yeah, 400 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: so we think you could get um another another so 401 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: basically a total of two trillion this year, So another trillion, 402 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:32,360 Speaker 1: and that's just in COVID relief. UM. And it's certainly possible, 403 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: uh that that Outside of that, you can also get 404 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: you know, some infrastructure spending or investment in education and 405 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,199 Speaker 1: health care UM that you know that the Democrats have 406 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 1: been talking about, UM, you know, which which would obviously 407 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 1: be spending you know, over a longer time frame, you know, 408 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 1: but that would help UM. And I think that's something 409 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: that is certainly needed. UM. It would be positive over 410 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 1: the longer term. You would hope for things like productivity, uh, 411 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 1: you know, labor force quality, uh you know, you know, 412 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: things like that. So you know, I think certainly we're 413 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 1: you know, we're in the right track in terms of 414 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: first let's think about the pandemic. Let's you know, kind 415 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: of help the folks that need it during this time. 416 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: Let's bridge the gap there, let's set ourselves up, um, 417 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: you know, for not having the longer term damage in 418 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 1: the economy, you know. And then after that focus, after 419 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: we've sort of dealt with that, um we're getting vaccine distribution, 420 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 1: then let's think about some of these longer term trends 421 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 1: and what can policy do, uh, you know, to lift 422 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 1: productivity in the future. Tiffany mentioned, you know, as we 423 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: take a look at some of this unemployment data that 424 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 1: we received this morning, how concerned are you about, uh, 425 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: perhaps the permanence of some of this unemployment of some 426 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 1: of these folks who are out of work. You know, 427 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 1: at the beginning of this pandemic, we kind of thought, 428 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 1: oh g you know, it's kind of temporary their quote 429 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 1: unquote furloughed. How concerned are you about the permanent nature 430 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,640 Speaker 1: the damage done to our employment situation? Yeah, I mean 431 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: that's something that that we always have to worry about, 432 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: you know, and we want to try to you know, 433 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: reduce the extent to which you get that permanent damage, 434 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 1: you know. And I think that the issue here is that, um, 435 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: it is really kind of you know, as as more 436 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: people are unemployed for longer, you have skills that start 437 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,680 Speaker 1: to atrophy, etcetera. So you know, really what you want 438 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,640 Speaker 1: to try to do is when you have these kinds 439 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 1: of shocks, you want to get people back in the 440 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: labor market, get them working as as soon as you 441 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 1: possibly can, so you don't have some of that longer 442 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,640 Speaker 1: term damage. You know. I think you know, one thing 443 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: to consider here that's very important that we're monitoring is 444 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 1: that you will have some what we call economic reallocation 445 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 1: that happens. You know, in other words, there will be 446 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 1: some sort of longer term scars in certain industries um 447 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: from this pandemic, you know. But but but there also 448 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: be some some good things probably that come out of 449 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: it as well. So for example of that, you know, 450 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: maybe the leisure and hospitality sector never fully gets back 451 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: to normal, even though it will recover. UM. But on 452 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 1: the other side of that, you'll have some uh, you know, 453 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: improving trends and kind of things like warehousing, you know, transportation. 454 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: You know, as more people continue to shop online or 455 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,479 Speaker 1: things like that, um, you can do more things that 456 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: are um you know via zoo room or you know, 457 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,199 Speaker 1: tele telecommunications, you know, so I think that you you 458 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 1: need to be able to bridge the gap for people 459 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: so they can get new jobs and new industries and 460 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,399 Speaker 1: you can get that economic reallocation that happens quickly and 461 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 1: smoothly and you don't get the longer term damage, you know, 462 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 1: And we certainly are optimistic that you know, we'll be 463 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: able to do that, you know, given the stimulus that 464 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,439 Speaker 1: we've gotten to date, and you know, on our expectation 465 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 1: for for more support from the government going forward. Tiffany, 466 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 1: we're hearing you know, you know, kind of somewhat tongue 467 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 1: in cheek comparisons to the nineteen twenties. Here, how much 468 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: pent up demand do you think there really is out 469 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: there in the economy. I'm trying to fast forward a 470 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: little bit to kind of June July August. Um, do 471 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 1: you think people are going to kind of just kind 472 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 1: of burst out of their homes and apartments and go 473 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 1: out there and spend um. Well, you know, I think, 474 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 1: you know, again, like one thing, one sort of measure. 475 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 1: You know, obviously love to look at data and measurements 476 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,680 Speaker 1: and things like that, you know, one measure I think 477 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,639 Speaker 1: to look at the potential pent up demand is is 478 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 1: really the savings rate, um you know, and as we've seen, 479 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,479 Speaker 1: the savings rate you know, has gone up a lot. 480 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 1: And I think that's important. You know a lot of 481 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 1: you know, we some of the spending and the household 482 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,360 Speaker 1: relief that that people have gotten, they have not been 483 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: able to spend because uh you know, things are shut down, 484 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: um you know. And and so I certainly think that 485 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: um you know, you will get some some pin up 486 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:26,119 Speaker 1: demand for for that type of spending when when things reopened. Certainly, 487 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: um you know, but again, as I mentioned, you know, 488 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,199 Speaker 1: I don't I don't think things will be quite the 489 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 1: same as they were prior to this pandemic, you know, 490 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: because I think people have figured out that uh you know, 491 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 1: they can they can work from home more seamlessly, um 492 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: you know than they could before, for example, and things 493 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,239 Speaker 1: like that. But but I think you will get some 494 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,399 Speaker 1: pin up demand you know, leisure, hospitality sectors for travel 495 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: and things like that. You know, that will certainly rebound pativity. Well, 496 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 1: and thank you so much with PIMCO. Greatly appreciated after 497 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 1: jobs report. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 498 00:27:55,880 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, Sun Cloud, 499 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 500 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:09,199 Speaker 1: Tom Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 501 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio