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Speaker 1: What can a chillions.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Webber and I'm Eric Belchunas.

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Speaker 1: Eric, I thought the Bitcoin etf dream was dead and

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Speaker 1: then all of a sudden it is like back, and

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Speaker 1: it's back with a vengeance.

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Speaker 2: You've seen Godfather three where al Pacino goes. I thought

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Speaker 2: I was out and they pulled me back in. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's how I feel. Every time this race gets reignited,

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Speaker 2: it's exhausting. That said, it's exciting, and this time around

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Speaker 2: it's got another level of fascination because you've got Blackrock

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Speaker 2: who filed. BlackRock's the biggest asset manager on planet Earth.

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Speaker 2: The SEC's you know, obviously a big part of the government.

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Speaker 2: Bitcoin had FTX, and now it's sort of coming back

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Speaker 2: as usual, you know, it's it never seems to go away,

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Speaker 2: usually comes back after these sort of big issues that

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Speaker 2: it has. So you've got a bunch of things sort

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Speaker 2: of colliding here, and there's so many subplots. My team,

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Speaker 2: James Sayford in particular, we've been all over this. A

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Speaker 2: lot of it's playing out on Twitter, but we've been

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Speaker 2: writing notes, We've been doing interviews with all the crypto

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Speaker 2: trade publications. There's a whole crypto underworld that is starting

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Speaker 2: to look to James in particular as the expert on this.

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Speaker 2: We had had some experience with the pro schars futures

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Speaker 2: ETF about two years ago. We called that, we said

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Speaker 2: it would happen, and it did, And now it's come

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Speaker 2: back around and people are like, say, what are the odds?

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Speaker 2: And so we're trying to handicap this thing in real time,

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Speaker 2: and like I said, it's equal parts exhausting and exciting.

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Speaker 1: To walk us through what we think we know about

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Speaker 1: the state of play. We're gonna have James Seifert ETF

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Speaker 1: analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, as well as Aphelia Snyder, co

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Speaker 1: founder and president of twenty one Shares. She is in

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Speaker 1: the ETF race, this time on Trean's The Bitcoin ETF

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Speaker 1: race is back. Okay, Aphelia, James, Welcome to trillions. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for having me, Thanks for having us, Aphelia. It feels

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Speaker 1: like we did this in the pandemic. We talked about

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Speaker 1: I think crypto and ETFs back then. I'm curious, like,

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Speaker 1: what the hell changed? Why is this happening all over again?

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Speaker 3: Oh? God, so much. It changed. Crypto moves very very

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Speaker 3: very quickly, as market and the markets. The underlying market

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Speaker 3: that is crypto evolves quite quickly. So the market itself

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Speaker 3: is very different than it was two years ago when

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Speaker 3: we talked about this at a like fundamental level in

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Speaker 3: terms of the market participants are and what it looks like,

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Speaker 3: and what volumes look like and what flows look like.

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Speaker 3: It is a very different market from that perspective, and

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Speaker 3: I think that's part of what's contributing to why this

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Speaker 3: is coming back. I think this most recent crypto winter

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Speaker 3: has actually flushed out a lot of bad actors in

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Speaker 3: the space, fleshed out a lot of like the garbage

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Speaker 3: that kind of gums up the works in crypto markets,

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Speaker 3: and we're starting to see people come out of that

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Speaker 3: and sort of the work that's been done during that

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Speaker 3: crypto winter, and it's part of what's reigniting this conversation.

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Speaker 1: So to be clear, there are already bitcoin ETFs, but

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Speaker 1: they're futures based. What we're actually talking about here is

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Speaker 1: a spot based ETF. Why does that remain the holy grail?

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Speaker 3: So twenty one chares as an issue runs about thirty

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Speaker 3: seven of these products in Europe already, all spot based

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Speaker 3: single assets indexes, shorts, all based on spot. The reason

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Speaker 3: that remains the holy grail here is because futures products

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Speaker 3: are great can be great things, but they're actually a

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Speaker 3: little bit different than a spot product. They have a

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Speaker 3: different exposure built into them, so you're dealing with different

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Speaker 3: factors that impact that market. It can be a really

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Speaker 3: good product if you understand what all of those things are,

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Speaker 3: and that's what it is you're trying to buy it is. However,

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Speaker 3: what it is not is pure play bitcoin exposure. It's like,

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Speaker 3: for example, it's why you saw oil future ETFs go negative.

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Speaker 3: It's because actually there's something else baked into there. From

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Speaker 3: an investment thesis perspective, there's nothing wrong with that, but

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Speaker 3: you need to actually want that additional thing. And for example,

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Speaker 3: you saw this evolution in gold markets where we went

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Speaker 3: through sort of the future is products and eventually ended

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Speaker 3: up at spot spot. Really is that just pure exposure.

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Speaker 3: There's nothing else in there other than long bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: And I think at the end of the day, people

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Speaker 2: just want it to track the price, whether it goes

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Speaker 2: down or up sideways. That's all anybody wants, and that's

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Speaker 2: the beauty of ETFs.

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Speaker 1: And I want to do it with an ETF rather

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Speaker 1: than bothering with whatever crypto while it is out there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean ETFs generally speaking, bring convenience, and they're

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Speaker 2: also in the plumbing of a lot of advisors in particular,

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Speaker 2: So the ETF. I think, if you want crypto and

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Speaker 2: you're younger and really into this, you don't really need

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Speaker 2: the ETF, but it can be convenient. ETF can trade

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Speaker 2: on exchange, you can buy any brokerage, and it's in

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Speaker 2: it fits its trust by the advisors of the world.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a big They have like thirty trillion

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Speaker 2: dollars in assets. They trust the ETF, they're used to it,

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Speaker 2: they're comfortable with it, and that's a format that they like,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's also a big part of the story.

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Speaker 1: And yet the SEC keeps saying no. How many times

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Speaker 1: has the SEC said no.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to James on that one? Yeah, yeah, thirty three.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, if you include the futures CTFs they've

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Speaker 4: denied or forced issuers to withdraw, we're in like I

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Speaker 4: think we're seventies, where we might be up there, we're

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Speaker 4: in the fifties at the very least. That's a lot.

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Speaker 1: So what's changed now, Well.

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Speaker 4: What Ophelia said is one thing. The other saying is

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Speaker 4: Blackrock which to be to be Frank Ark in twenty

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Speaker 4: one shares were early. They filed back in April of

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, and Blackrock just filed in June fifteenth.

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Speaker 4: That's when we first saw their prospectus, and also when

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Speaker 4: they filed their nineteen B four, which is the rule

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Speaker 4: change proposal. That is what we're all here to talk about.

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Speaker 1: But really what which like I had never heard of

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Speaker 1: until suddenly like nineteen B four.

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Speaker 3: It's objectively not interesting. It is objectively interesting because what

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Speaker 3: it's supposed to be is a form document that's on

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Speaker 3: the back end of some things that exchanges do. Most

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Speaker 3: people with a normal ETF application, there's nothing in there

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Speaker 3: that anyone would ever be interested in looking at.

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Speaker 1: But even nineteen B fours get their moment.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I mean they've had a lot of moments with

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Speaker 4: all these Bitcoin ETF denials. Whenever you see people, if

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Speaker 4: you see news stories or headlines with all the crypto publications,

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Speaker 4: talk about them, and they'll say, oh, it's been delayed again,

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Speaker 4: or it's denied or approved. Every time you see that

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Speaker 4: that's a nineteen before application. I find that a lot

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Speaker 4: of the crypto world over the last few years, didn't

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Speaker 4: really understand what they were writing about. They've gotten a

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Speaker 4: lot better over the last five years since we've seen

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Speaker 4: a denial after denial after denial, so more of them

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Speaker 4: know what's going on now. But yeah, it's the nineteen

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Speaker 4: B four process, which is basically as Ophelia said, it's

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Speaker 4: an exchange. Applying to get a rule change to make

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Speaker 4: something be allowed to happen is essentially what it is,

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Speaker 4: and that thing in this case is to launch a

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Speaker 4: spot bitcoin etf.

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Speaker 2: So you can't underestimate how shocking the Blackrock etf filing was.

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Speaker 2: First of all, Coindesk deserves props. They recorded it, They

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Speaker 2: said it was going to happen earlier one day. I

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Speaker 2: did not believe it.

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Speaker 1: At first.

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Speaker 2: I thought, well, maybe, but this doesn't make any sense.

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Speaker 2: And then it happened and it basically was shocking. It

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Speaker 2: took me like a little while to process this. We

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Speaker 2: were all trying to figure out why they would do it.

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Speaker 2: Blackrock does not do things lightly. They like to bring

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Speaker 2: a gun to a knife fight. This is a firm

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Speaker 2: that is very close with the government. They don't want

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Speaker 2: to upset the government, and they could afford to be

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Speaker 2: late in this race, to be honest, So for them

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Speaker 2: to file and be the innovator here and come out

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Speaker 2: of the blue like this again, it was shocking. What

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Speaker 2: was your thought when you saw that filing.

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Speaker 3: There are a few moving pieces in the market right now,

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Speaker 3: Blackrock is one of them. But when you ask like

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Speaker 3: why now, one of the big things that doesn't come

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Speaker 3: up as frequently as it should in these conversations is

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Speaker 3: the Gray Skill lawsuit, because ultimately, if Gray Scale wins

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Speaker 3: their lawsuit, what do they actually win. What they win

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Speaker 3: is requiring the SEC to go back with a higher

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Speaker 3: burden approof That's it. They can't win an approval through

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Speaker 3: that process, right, Like a positive decision is not here's

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Speaker 3: let me hand you a you now get to go live.

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Speaker 3: It forces the SEC to basically re explain their decision

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Speaker 3: making process and do it with a higher standard, with

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Speaker 3: a lot more scrutiny. That's really interesting because that's going

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Speaker 3: to come through in the fall no matter. There's a

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Speaker 3: standard judicial process that's going to happen around those filings.

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Speaker 3: That's really exciting and that changes things in this market.

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Speaker 3: And so if there is and if you read sort

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Speaker 3: of the early statements coming out from that lawsuit, it

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Speaker 3: appears really promising. And so the question is, if you

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Speaker 3: think that that moves the needle, then this timeline actually

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Speaker 3: makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 2: This is the timeline so that that inspires you to

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Speaker 2: file back in was the grey Scale lawsuit, which, for

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Speaker 2: just enybody listening who doesn't know what that is, gray

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Speaker 2: Scale has a trust that isn't an ETF and they're

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Speaker 2: basically assuming that the SEC and saying that by approving

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Speaker 2: the futures ETF and not the spot, they were inconsistent.

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Speaker 2: And when the arguments were heard, which anybody could stream,

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Speaker 2: people were shocked at how more on the side of

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Speaker 2: Greyscale the judges sounded and how on the heels the

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Speaker 2: SEC lawyer was, and our legal analysts went from forty

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Speaker 2: percent possibility Grayscale could win to seventy just on that.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's sort of again a huge variable

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Speaker 2: because if the SEC loses, that's like some egg on

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Speaker 2: the face there at least if not, you know, they're

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Speaker 2: not going to turn to an ETF, but that certainly

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Speaker 2: would change things.

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Speaker 3: It raises the standard of proof for what they're saying, right,

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Speaker 3: They're going to have to substantiate things more, which is

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Speaker 3: not a bad thing. I think one of the from

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Speaker 3: our perspective, Look, we never actually exited this race. We

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Speaker 3: refiled last year, refiled the year before, We submit new

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Speaker 3: analysis every time we do. We have an amazing research

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Speaker 3: and quant team, so we actually do a lot of

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Speaker 3: primary research ourselves. We're not just referencing other things around.

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Speaker 3: You know, how you think about like covariance between different markets,

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Speaker 3: and you know, we've gone back and forth with regulators

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Speaker 3: all over the world around how we sort of manage

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Speaker 3: those statistics and helping them get comfortable with them. So

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Speaker 3: we've sort of been engaged in this all along. But

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Speaker 3: I think when you look at the Blackrock piece of this,

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Speaker 3: why now that timeline actually does make a lot of sense.

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Speaker 3: And if you couple that with Larry Fink's letter for

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Speaker 3: the year in terms of key themes, crypto being one

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Speaker 3: of them that seems quite internally consistent.

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Speaker 4: And the other thing that we obviously haven't even touched on,

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Speaker 4: which is the key thread in all of these recent

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Speaker 4: wave of applications, is the fact that when Blackrock filed,

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Speaker 4: they said they were planning to enter or were entering

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Speaker 4: into a surveillance sharing agreement with Coinbase, which all the

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Speaker 4: denials prior all I talked about those nineteen before denials,

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Speaker 4: the one thing the SEC always said was we want surveillance.

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Speaker 4: We want to have surveillance over a market of sin

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Speaker 4: gifting de size, specifically a regulated market. So this isn't

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Speaker 4: the first time we saw a surveillance share agreement with

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Speaker 4: coin with within a crypto exchange. The Winklevoss Twins applied

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Speaker 4: with this. They said they were going to have a

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Speaker 4: surveillance sharing agreement with their own Gemini, among many other things,

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Speaker 4: and the SEC denied it, saying it was neither a

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Speaker 4: market of significant size nor a regulated market. So now

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Speaker 4: we have these filings, everyone's saying they're going to have

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Speaker 4: a surveillance sharing agreement Coinbase, which I have written this

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Speaker 4: and I will argue this that coinbase is a market

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Speaker 4: of significant size, especially if you just look at US

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Speaker 4: dollar trading. If you look at the global markets, they're

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Speaker 4: like less than ten percent, but almost all of that

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Speaker 4: is in stable coin pairs, which are just for those

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Speaker 4: that don't know, it's essentially these coins that say they're

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Speaker 4: peg to the US dollar. There's a lot of manipulation

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Speaker 4: that's potentially happening on some of these other exchanges. The

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Speaker 4: big player in the room is Finance, which SEC is suing.

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Speaker 4: But if you look at just US dollar pairs, Coinbase

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Speaker 4: is the number one trading pair with bitcoin. If you

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Speaker 4: just look at exchanges that accept US dollars, Coinbase is

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Speaker 4: forty percent of that market. So Coinbase is the market

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Speaker 4: when you're talking about bitcoin priced in US dollars, So

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Speaker 4: I think they are marketed. It's a significant size, which

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Speaker 4: should satisfy some of the SEC's concerns. Combined with the

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Speaker 4: fact that we have those CME futures, which we have

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Speaker 4: the future CTFs that were approved, all of that points

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Speaker 4: to the fact that the SEC might get comfortable saying

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Speaker 4: they have enough surveillance. The only caveat that I'm looking

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Speaker 4: at right now is basically Gary Gensler and the SEC

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Speaker 4: need to kind of accept that bitcoin trading on coinbase

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Speaker 4: is not a regulated market. That's the one hang up.

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Speaker 4: But honestly, I don't know what would entail a regulated

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Speaker 4: market in bitcoin, because bitcoin, even Gary Gensler in the

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Speaker 4: SEC would say, is a commodity and not a security.

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Speaker 4: So I guess I would push it back to Aphelia

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Speaker 4: and say ask if she has any comments on or

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Speaker 4: disagreements with anything.

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Speaker 3: I said, no, I agree with you. I think the

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Speaker 3: question is going to come down to how they define

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Speaker 3: significant size, because it's not actually there's no standard for that.

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Speaker 3: This isn't like a reference to a law where it

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Speaker 3: says it needs to be x right. It's an undefined term,

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Speaker 3: as is the sort of regulated piece of that. Neither

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Speaker 3: one of these are things that actually you're standardized, and

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Speaker 3: so I think it's going to come down to a

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Speaker 3: few of those points. And I also think if you

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Speaker 3: look at I mean not Torp on this, if you

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Speaker 3: go back to gold markets, which is the closest corollary

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Speaker 3: we have, and you look at sort of the level

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Speaker 3: of surveillance that's expected there, there is an understanding that

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Speaker 3: you can really only surveil a portion of that market

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Speaker 3: because of the inherent construction of it. Gold markets involve

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Speaker 3: everybody from like your pawnbroker to you know, JP Morgan

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Speaker 3: trading gold bars in both London and Zurich with different prices, Like,

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Speaker 3: how do you deal with that? The answer is you

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Speaker 3: make do with some level of surveillance, understanding it's not

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Speaker 3: going to be complete. And I think that's actually a

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Speaker 3: likely model here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So all of a sudden, we have Coinbase as

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Speaker 1: this sort of third party that everybody agrees is going

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Speaker 1: to have ability to have this surveillance agreement with. So

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Speaker 1: why is coinbase so significant to all these resubmission applications

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, Well, part.

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Speaker 4: Of it is all the things I just said, right,

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Speaker 4: They are that surveillan sharing agreement, which basically means that

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Speaker 4: like NASDAK, who definitely has when CBOE is trying to

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Speaker 4: enter one nice he's trying to enter one, they basically

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Speaker 4: have contracts where they're trying to enter these agreements officially.

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Speaker 4: And all it means is like if the regulars come

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Speaker 4: back and say they suspect some sort of manipulation in

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Speaker 4: the market, wash trading whatever, they want to be able

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Speaker 4: to go to a spot market and say, tell us

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Speaker 4: what was happening with the trading on this time so

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Speaker 4: they can back into with exchanges that have KYC Know

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Speaker 4: your Customer and anti money laundering rules. They want to

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Speaker 4: be able to be able to basically like figure out

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Speaker 4: who was doing this and if it was actually happening.

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Speaker 4: So that's all this is. This is an agreement that

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Speaker 4: the exchanges can go to coinbase and get that information affiliate.

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Speaker 1: Do you have those in any other jurisdictions.

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Speaker 3: No, but it's a different market construction. And one of

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Speaker 3: the things that's come up a lot in the context

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Speaker 3: of these sessays is sessays are not really commercial in

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Speaker 3: that way, So there's no incentive to work with one

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Speaker 3: exchange not another. That's not the design. In fact, like

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Speaker 3: realize you would have an agreement like this between equities

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Speaker 3: exchanges that compete with each other, right, This is not

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Speaker 3: that kind of thing. This is a piece of very

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Speaker 3: wonky back end infrastructure for exchanges, and so I think

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Speaker 3: what you're going to see is coin is coming in

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Speaker 3: is great. I think you're going to see more of them.

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Speaker 3: I actually think you will see more exchanges sign up

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Speaker 3: to this because it actually helps normalize crypto markets to

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Speaker 3: standard market practice. And I think a lot of the

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Speaker 3: centralized exchanges, especially the ones operating in Europe and the

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Speaker 3: United States, have a vested interest in moving in that

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Speaker 3: direction and they are so I think that's going to

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Speaker 3: be something to look at. I think in the coming

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Speaker 3: months is that I don't think this will end up

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Speaker 3: being a one off I think you will end up

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Speaker 3: seeing a movement in this direction ultimately long term and

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Speaker 3: awesome thing for crypto markets.

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Speaker 2: And if you're the SEC and Coinbase is going to

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Speaker 2: give all this data enter into these agreements with these

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Speaker 2: different exchanges, and I mean if Coinbase is working with Blackrock, NASDAC, CBOE,

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Speaker 2: we'll call those like sort of the traditional finance companies.

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Speaker 2: To me, it just seems like possible they would be

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Speaker 2: able to maybe overlook the regulated given all of that,

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Speaker 2: in other words, that's that's a regulated in quotes if

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Speaker 2: you will, because it's it's with all these traditional finance

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Speaker 2: companies and there's no actual bills coming through Congress that

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Speaker 2: are going to regulate it anyway, So can you really

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Speaker 2: regulate it? So this would be the closest thing and

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Speaker 2: it's good enough. And if you're Gary Gensler and you

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Speaker 2: have you know Biden's going to let you have another

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Speaker 2: presidential election coming up, and you want to basically say

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Speaker 2: you move crypto forward, this would be a way to say, well,

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Speaker 2: I left it with a lot of the traditional finance companies.

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Speaker 2: It's doing well, it's safer than when I started. I

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Speaker 2: checked that box.

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Speaker 3: And one of the questions, is regulated as what? And

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Speaker 3: this is something James was alluding to, because you commodities

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Speaker 3: regulated as what, and the issue is a regulated market

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Speaker 3: of significant size. If the market is a securities market

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Speaker 3: that has a defined meaning. If the market is a

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Speaker 3: commodities market, now you're getting into a completely different set

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Speaker 3: of things. There isn't necessarily a way to have a

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Speaker 3: regulated market there. So I think it's going to come

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Speaker 3: down to some of those definitional questions. And it seems

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Speaker 3: like if you look at a lot of the enforcement

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Speaker 3: actions that have come out of the SEC recently, it

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Speaker 3: seems like there is at least an internal consensus within

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Speaker 3: the SEC around how to categorize some things as they

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Speaker 3: definitely their opinion is that this is definitely a security.

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Speaker 3: Whether or not that ends up being the case is

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Speaker 3: neither here nor there. But they are stating an opinion

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Speaker 3: in these lawsuits, right, so you kind of start to

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Speaker 3: see where their opinion's at. That also introduces some wiggle

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Speaker 3: room here, because fundamentally, if it's not a security, then

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Speaker 3: what is a regulated market? And I think that's one

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Speaker 3: of the things that's going to shake out over the

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Speaker 3: next few weeks, and we'll be quite interesting.

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Speaker 1: So there's some big names here, the black rocks of

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Speaker 1: the world. You're basically going head to head with them.

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Speaker 1: And I'm curious, what do you think is going to

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Speaker 1: distinguish the filing and that plication that you have, Like say,

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Speaker 1: everybody say SEC stamps everybody, I don't know when within

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Speaker 1: the next year, and everybody's on the in the market,

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Speaker 1: what's your product going to look like versus everybody else's.

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Speaker 3: So crypto ETFs are not copy paste products of other markets,

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Speaker 3: they're not The types of things that happen inside of

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Speaker 3: crypto are actually different, and there are corollaries, right, So

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Speaker 3: like a fork is kind of like a corporate action,

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Speaker 3: and air drop is also kind of like a corporate action.

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Speaker 3: But there are a bunch of things that happen that

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Speaker 3: are unique, and they're unique to how blockchains operate. And

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Speaker 3: then that's true of settlement, that's true of dust that

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Speaker 3: accumulates on networks. There's a bunch of like things that

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Speaker 3: can happen here. And ultimately, when we look at our

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Speaker 3: positioning in the market, we've been doing this for five years.

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Speaker 3: Our oldest product is celebrating its five your anniversary in November, which,

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Speaker 3: by the way, was not a single asset tracker on

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Speaker 3: bitcoin was actually an index product. And we've done this,

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Speaker 3: We've seen all of that, and there's something to be

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Speaker 3: said for an actual experienced set of hands here, which

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Speaker 3: is not true of most of the existing asset managers

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Speaker 3: in the space. And if you look at, for example,

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Speaker 3: the European market, you know, we've certainly outperformed a lot

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Speaker 3: of the traditional, if not all, of the traditional shops

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Speaker 3: that have entered the space simply on the basis of

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Speaker 3: you do need niche knowledge here working with investors to

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Speaker 3: get them comfortable on where bitcoin fits in their portfolio.

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Speaker 3: A lot of this is quite specialized information. And the

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Speaker 3: way that sales process work is actually very different.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's a lot of ways they can

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Speaker 4: differentiate if we do get one approved, and I just

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Speaker 4: think like, based on everything we've seen from the SEC

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Speaker 4: and Gensler, the SEC will kind of back into legally

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Speaker 4: like whatever they want to basically what Gary Gensler decides,

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Speaker 4: right Like, we keep talking about what is a market

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Speaker 4: of significant size, what is regulated market? I mean you

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Speaker 4: can look at what we had two Cream Future CTFs approved.

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Speaker 4: We had Bitcoin Future CTFs approved under two Cream and

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Speaker 4: Basically what the SEC said was the CME futures market

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Speaker 4: is a market of significant size with respect to the

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Speaker 4: CME futures market, which to any normal person would read

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Speaker 4: that and be like, am I actually reading this from

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Speaker 4: the SEC? So basically they can they'll back into what

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Speaker 4: they wanted back into. And she said, what is a

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Speaker 4: regulated market? I mean Coinbase, their shares trade on this,

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Speaker 4: the they trade, they're regulated by the SEC. They're regulated

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Speaker 4: by NYDFS, which is the New York Department of Financial Services.

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Speaker 4: There's money transmitter laws, so they can kind of back

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Speaker 4: into whatever they want if they really want to, just

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Speaker 4: like they can say it's not a market of significant

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Speaker 4: size and it's not regulated, so there's all these things

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Speaker 4: they can do and they have all these backdoors. But

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Speaker 4: my view, and it's all circumstantial evidence. Eric and I

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Speaker 4: have talked about this and he can talk about a

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Speaker 4: little bit more, but like, it's all circumstantial evidence. And

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Speaker 4: if the SEC is suing Finance and Coinbase, they're going

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Speaker 4: after all these bad actors in the space, and they're

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Speaker 4: focused on all coins. They're focused on Honestly, some of

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Speaker 4: the coins that Ophelia also has ETFs for in Europe.

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Speaker 4: But the one thing that they that Gary Genzer always

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Speaker 4: goes back to is bitcoin is not a security. He

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Speaker 4: it's the one thing he'll admit in the whole crypto

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Speaker 4: ecosystem that he'll call a commodity. So like, if you're

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Speaker 4: gonna give somewhere, and like Eric said, there's political wins here.

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Speaker 4: Saying that they got a crypto exchange to come under

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Speaker 4: a surveillance sharing agreement with exchanges that are regulated by

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Speaker 4: the SEC. That's a win that he can pull. So

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of circumstantial evidence that would show that

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Speaker 4: this isn't just like the last time. There's a lot

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Speaker 4: of people on Twitter like it's gonna get denied, this

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Speaker 4: is just like all the other ones. That's not the

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Speaker 4: case here. There is a better shot here. Now, is

431
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 4: it ninety percent chance of approval? Obviously not, But I'll

432
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 4: let Eric chime in a little bit more here.

433
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,360
Speaker 2: Well, we're at fifty percent, which some people are like, oh,

434
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: that's a cop out. Fifty percent. I'm like, honestly, compared

435
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 2: to our ETF expert colleagues out there, fifty percent is

436
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 2: pretty high. A lot of them are just naysaying because

437
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 2: that's what the SEC recently said, but I don't know.

438
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 2: We feel as though there are definitely some things have changed.

439
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 2: There's also some interesting back channel chatter. Blackrock is a

440
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 2: huge variable. Like I said, they're not doing this just

441
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: on a lark. Okay, so there's a there's also I

442
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 2: feel the winds of change fidelity Citadel or forming an exchange.

443
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 2: There's been this whole schwab is with them, Yeah, schwab.

444
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 2: There's been this whole trad five moving into crypto post

445
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 2: FTX kind of thing. And this stuff matters. I mean,

446
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 2: we're again we're trying to read the tea leaves here

447
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 2: and all this kind of factors. And now that said

448
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 2: fifty percent also means there's a chance of fifty percent

449
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 2: that is not going to happen. But there's a lot

450
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 2: of connecting of dots that would tell you this makes sense,

451
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 2: the time is right, and it would be obviously, both

452
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 2: on the political and technical side, feasible.

453
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 1: Appelia, I'm guessing you're going to take the over on

454
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: the fifty percent. Where do you put probability?

455
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 3: I actually don't. I think I agree with you guys

456
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 3: on this. I think one of the things are going

457
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 3: to see. I think we're still going to see the

458
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,880
Speaker 3: process take the full two hundred and forty. So we're

459
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 3: not even in the first in here, like we've barely

460
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,479
Speaker 3: started this clock. This is not I think there's this

461
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 3: expectation that, like they file, this is now happening maybe

462
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 3: like maybe, but it's still going to take my guesses,

463
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 3: the entire statutory time if it does.

464
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 1: Days for four months.

465
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 3: Uh, it's two forty.

466
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 1: Nine.

467
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 4: I can tell you the date that I have estimated

468
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 4: for a which is final. I have twelve twenty seven

469
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 4: as the estimated final date because that's.

470
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 2: On your filing, that's on from April.

471
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 3: Yes, this is a long game.

472
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,120
Speaker 2: Could be a good Christmas for Ophelia and her who

473
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: lives in Rome.

474
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 3: It's it's gonna be a it's going to be a

475
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: long thing. And so I think for where we are

476
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 3: at in the process, which is like a couple of

477
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: months into a multi month process, that seems fair. And

478
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 3: I I agree that I think the odds have increased

479
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 3: with these types of arrangements, and I think we're going

480
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: to see a different kind of conversation and that's ultimately

481
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 3: all you can ask for from regulator. And look, we've

482
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 3: done this with regulators all over the world. All you

483
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: really want is for them to come to the table

484
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 3: with an open mind on and have a path forward.

485
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 3: The path forward may not be we're going to do

486
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 3: this tomorrow. The path forward. Maybe we need these thirty

487
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 3: seven things. But if there's a thirty seven thing list,

488
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 3: you can at least deliver those things. And I think

489
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 3: that's what this does. It puts us in a position

490
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 3: to say, Okay, we've cleared one of the things on

491
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 3: your list, what's the next one? Is there a next one?

492
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 3: Or are we good?

493
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: Let me ask you this. So when we tweet about this,

494
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 2: two thirds of the people are aren't thrilled. They're like, yeah, bitcoin,

495
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: let the advisors buy and I love it. I love

496
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 2: it two hundred k. There's definitely people who want the

497
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: price to go up. Then there's you know, a third

498
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 2: or like, whoahoa, guys, you want black Rock to touch

499
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 2: your money? This is not your coin's not your wallet.

500
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: There's this sort of like more purest form of the

501
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 2: Bitcoin people who think this is like selling out, like

502
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,479
Speaker 2: be careful what you wish for people. How does that

503
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 2: play out in the crypto world? Obviously you're the etf issure.

504
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 2: In my view, the ETF is the preferred platform for

505
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 2: a big, gigantic want of money, at least in America

506
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: from advisors, and that is what you're unlocking with this.

507
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 2: But you are bringing in a lot of traditional finance,

508
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 2: and some people would say, well, the whole point of

509
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: bitcoin was to be outside of that system. So is

510
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 2: there any tension between that sort of ethos, right, and

511
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 2: all this happening where and all this thing you can have,

512
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 2: Like all these big asset managers have ETFs and all

513
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 2: the boomer advisors own them and such.

514
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 3: So the not your keys, not your coin's crowd is

515
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: a thing one hundred percent and will continue to be

516
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 3: and should be. But I think the question becomes this,

517
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 3: I do believe in more control over people's financial destinies.

518
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 3: That makes a ton of sense. How much of your

519
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 3: day would you like to devote to that? Because I'm

520
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 3: perfectly happy personally, even as someone who uses crypto regularly,

521
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: I have no interest in processing my own wire payments.

522
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 3: It's just not a good use of my time. I

523
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 3: have other things I would like to do with it,

524
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 3: and I'm very happy to pay somebody to do that service.

525
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 3: And I think that's what you're going to start to

526
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,239
Speaker 3: get into with some of these purists, is at what

527
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: stage are you no longer going to be doing this yourself?

528
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 3: And I think with bitcoiny to you have some particular

529
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 3: where that comes in is my mom. My mom is

530
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 3: honestly an amazing woman, but she started talking to me

531
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 3: about bitcoin in twenty thirteen, which is an absurd concept

532
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 3: if you think about it, and she was like, this

533
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 3: makes perfect sense. I believe monetary policy should be centralized.

534
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 3: Mirk spends too much money hedging. There should be a

535
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 3: way to have a global currency one hundred percent spot

536
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 3: on all of the economic arguments. I was like, okay, Mom,

537
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 3: Like are you going to buy some She's like yeah,

538
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 3: but there's no way for me to do that. I'm

539
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 3: not opening a new account with somebody I have never

540
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 3: heard of, and at the time that was coinbase and

541
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 3: coinbas was much smaller. I'm not going to get engaged

542
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 3: with you know, I don't want to do this. I

543
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 3: don't want to have to manage my own passwords. She

544
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 3: can barely remember, you know, the password for her AOL account,

545
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 3: Like this is not this is not her thing, and

546
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:10,959
Speaker 3: that's not where she wants to spend her time. But

547
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 3: she can see value in it, and she sees value

548
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 3: in participating in that environment. And actually that is the

549
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 3: reason I started my company, is because I wanted to

550
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 3: be able to help her, like there was nothing to

551
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 3: put her in. And these ETFs actually filled that gap.

552
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 3: They fill a gap for people who for whom the infrastructure,

553
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,959
Speaker 3: like the juice isn't worth the squeeze on the infrastructure.

554
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 3: They don't want to set that up. And I can

555
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 3: appreciate that, And that's true for a bunch of people.

556
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 3: And it's also true quite frankly, like all the way

557
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 3: down the retail chain, for example, like the types of

558
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 3: crypto custody that are available to an average market participant

559
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 3: in crypto is nothing compared to the kind of security

560
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 3: we have, the kind of insurance policies we have, the

561
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 3: kind of process we have to safeguard assets. It's just

562
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 3: not even in the same ballpark.

563
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 4: I mean, we can try me like FTX blew up,

564
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 4: a lot of people lost their money. I mean recently,

565
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 4: Prime Trust was a trusted member of the community in

566
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 4: the US crypto custodian world and they've completely blew up.

567
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 4: They lost they lost the access to wallets, they put

568
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 4: their client money in and tried to cover it up.

569
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 4: And we don't need to get into that in this

570
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 4: but basically there's a lot of bad actors in the space.

571
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 4: And no, I don't think like bringing TRADFI and normal

572
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 4: people in is going to solve all the problems. But

573
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,919
Speaker 4: these people are used to being under heavy regulation and

574
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,640
Speaker 4: doing things right, and I think people that can tow

575
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 4: that line a little better than the traditional I would say,

576
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 4: crypto crowd. There's a there's a real selling point there.

577
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,719
Speaker 2: My response after FTX was an ETF fixes this because

578
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 2: an ETF is SBF proof. That guy, you could not

579
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: do that with an ETF because at ETF's transferable that

580
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 2: they take it and it's with a custodian. So and

581
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: that goes with any ETF, whether it's stocks or bonds.

582
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 2: It's the same concept, right. That's why ets were kind

583
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 2: of invented to be a physically backed kind of futures contract,

584
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 2: because futures are obviously dependent on counterparties. Anyway, long story short,

585
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: ETFs are I think a safe structure, and there again

586
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 2: the asset manager could go crazy, but the ETF is

587
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: transferable through the custodian.

588
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 3: Also realize you for example our products, they're all bankruptcy

589
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 3: remote Like if our company implodes tomorrow, nothing happens to

590
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 3: those assets. They don't even from part of the bankruptcy estate.

591
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: They're a completely separate thing. And so what ends up

592
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 3: happening is what you don't have is something like FTX.

593
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 3: You don't find any or voyager or prime trust or BLOCKFI.

594
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 3: And look, FDx is a weird one because that's just fraud,

595
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 3: and I generally dislike putting them on the same list

596
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 3: as these other people. Like the other people there are

597
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: issues usually do with credit, FDx is just a fraud case.

598
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 3: And I think the difference with an ETF frapper is

599
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 3: that you have that transparency, You have these requirements, you

600
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 3: have a certain amount of controls process that's built around this.

601
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 3: And this stuff is terminally unsexy and no one actually

602
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 3: likes to think about them. But when the rubber hits

603
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 3: the road, that's when it matters. And no one cares

604
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 3: about any of this until you're in a situation where

605
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 3: you actually can't recover your assets and you're starting to realize, hey,

606
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 3: wait a second, this thing that seemed boring is actually

607
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 3: where I'm going to, you know, hang my hat and

608
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 3: find the safe harbor.

609
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 1: Okay, So, just on the heels of this last question,

610
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: if we've gone through this FTX and these crypto winters

611
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: and retails backed off and FTX no longer has naming

612
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: on the Miami Convention, et cetera, no more Super Bowl commercials, etc.

613
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: And yet the institutions are sticking around and like almost

614
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 1: showing up. Finally, how big of a of a market

615
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 1: is this?

616
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 3: It's massive and it makes sense the institutions. How long

617
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 3: does it take to get an institution comfortable with entering

618
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 3: a new market? The answer is actually years. So most

619
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 3: of what you're seeing now is actual work that was

620
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 3: done two years ago. So during bull market, a lot

621
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 3: of people did some work, and through a bear market,

622
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: those seeds have been growing. It's true on the technology front,

623
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 3: true on the institutional adoption front. It's just generically trund

624
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 3: crypto bears are for building. It's a trope, but it's accurate,

625
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 3: and I think what you're seeing is you're finally seeing

626
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: the return on that the return on years of work

627
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 3: by people. So I think ultimately, even if retail's temporarily

628
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 3: backed off of the space and risk on assets are

629
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 3: not popular across financial markets right now. This isn't unique

630
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 3: to crypto, right, this is you're seeing the same thing

631
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 3: in VC, You're seeing the same thing in inequities markets

632
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 3: like this has been a change, right, It's why you're

633
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 3: seeing layoffs at Facebook for the first time and that

634
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 3: type of dynamic. And I think this market is massive,

635
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 3: but it's just the beginning, and people somehow sometimes link

636
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 3: price to those types of advancements. Price is a lagging

637
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,719
Speaker 3: indicator of what's actually happening in the space by a

638
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: long shot. So the question becomes where are we actually

639
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 3: We're in a early good spot, and this is what

640
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 3: the groundwork for the next bowl market is going to be.

641
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: How big is massive? They're a number for it.

642
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 3: That's hard.

643
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 2: But you asking about the ETF market, We'll start there. Well,

644
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 2: how much is there right now in global crypto ETFs?

645
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: Like fifty billion?

646
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 4: I mean, if you totally ets, no, it's less than that.

647
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 4: But if you include the gray scale bitcoin, let's include that,

648
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 4: it's twenty Yeah, it's around fifty billion. That it's right,

649
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 4: it's forty billion, fifty billion. I haven't checked in a

650
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 4: past in a little while.

651
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 2: Then I would say five hundred billion that's that's a

652
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: little more than gold is. But I you know, I

653
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: don't think all advisors will allocate and and I don't

654
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 2: think they allocate a lot, but certainly an institution, some

655
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 2: of them would use an ETF. Some would just go

656
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: straight and rate with an asset manager and not use

657
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 2: an ETF. But that's my guess. I would say five

658
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 2: hundred billion in like five years.

659
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 3: Do you mean crypto or do you mean bitcoin?

660
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 2: I'm crypto Bitcoin probably a vast majority of that number, though.

661
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 3: Interesting because I think that's the question. Depending on how

662
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 3: you think about what the future of crypto is, that

663
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 3: number can be wildly different. So, for example, do you

664
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 3: believe in the tokenization of the underlying securities, because then

665
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 3: you're getting into whole other thing. So the question is

666
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 3: the question is how big is the market for blockchain

667
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 3: based things and investment products. That's a very different conversation.

668
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 3: If the question is is it, you know, specifically crypto

669
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 3: including all the alts, that's different. I think those kinds

670
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: of numbers for like a bitcoin product makes sense. But

671
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 3: I think as you start to add these other line items,

672
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 3: there's a version of the world where there's no difference

673
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 3: between crypto ETFs and all ETFs because you can actually

674
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 3: operate the plumbing on a blockchain. So then I think

675
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 3: those numbers start to fall Apart.

676
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 2: From that's a little two next level for me.

677
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm going to take it back and say

678
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 4: I'm on the record, this probably will be if we

679
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 4: do get a spot bitcoin ETF. There's a chance they

680
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 4: all want to at the same time. But if they

681
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 4: do launch at the same time, I think the assets

682
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 4: the flow into these products will be like the biggest

683
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 4: launch we've ever seen. So if we only get one ETF,

684
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 4: I think it could beat biddoh, which is the Bitcoin

685
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 4: Futures ETF that is currently the fastest launch to a billion,

686
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 4: the largest launch in the first week. I think these

687
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 4: products could blow that out of the water, even if

688
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 4: some of that is taking money away from biddoh and

689
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 4: other products.

690
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 2: And just to just a final thought here, this is

691
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 2: why this is so fascinating. It's a race, and usually

692
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,240
Speaker 2: biddo has ninety five percent of the Bitcoin Future ETF

693
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: volume and assets, and it only had a three day

694
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 2: lead over the number two launcher. So that is why

695
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 2: this is utterly fascinating because if you're out first, you know,

696
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,439
Speaker 2: unless you're a big company, it's it's hard to catch

697
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 2: up from that first, the first launch, the first.

698
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: To market, Ophelia. I guess we'll have you back in December,

699
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 1: if not sooner, maybe Okay, James Aphilia, thanks for joining

700
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:33,720
Speaker 1: us on Trillions.

701
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 4: Thanks for having us, Thanks for having.

702
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: Us, Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. You

703
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 1: can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com,

704
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you'd like to listen.

705
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. We're on Twitter, I'm

706
00:34:55,960 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: at Joel Webbers Show. He's at Eric Balchunas. This episode

707
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: of Trillions was produced by Magnus Hendrickson. Bye