Speaker 1: Check it down, man, it is the Divisional Round Megapod
Speaker 1: Thursday morning or no, pardon me, Wednesday morning. Not a
Speaker 1: problem with January fifteenth, twenty twenty five, The Beating the
Speaker 1: Book Podcast Live on Twitter, Gil Alexander, the staples of
Speaker 1: the show, Todd wishnev different angle from his mom's cork
Speaker 1: attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania because he had to use an
Speaker 1: alternative computer. How you doing, Toddy?
Speaker 2: Hey?
Speaker 1: Hey, he just struggled with a computer for thirty minutes.
Speaker 1: Will Hill at not the Will Hill on Twitter, by
Speaker 1: the way, host, So this should have been more podcasts
Speaker 1: from a not his mom's core attic somewhere in Connecticut.
Speaker 3: Are you do know?
Speaker 2: Willie?
Speaker 4: What's going on?
Speaker 2: Guys? Seven games left? Gott to enjoy him?
Speaker 1: Do you want to say anything? As a Minnesota Vikings fan?
Speaker 1: Do you want to start up?
Speaker 3: I say the people, No, this is I don't know
Speaker 3: what stage of the grief I'm in. And there's some
Speaker 3: fandom that its wounded. There's some like eighty to one
Speaker 3: Super Bowl futures that are wounded. I should have known better.
Speaker 3: I shouldn't have gotten my guard up down where you're
Speaker 3: not supposed to have your guard even a little bit.
Speaker 3: This is the Minnesota Vikings, this is Sam Darnold. I
Speaker 3: deserve all of the pain.
Speaker 1: For believing even a little bit. Oh, very hard show
Speaker 1: and our guest. We always love to have our favorites
Speaker 1: during the playoffs who were also kind enough to join
Speaker 1: us during the regular season. He is kind beyond belief
Speaker 1: because he does it with us every year. Obviously, I'm
Speaker 1: retweeting now the live feed. Obviously he comes on a
Speaker 1: Numbers game every Tuesday. He is the host of not
Speaker 1: one but two of his own podcasts, The Deep Dive
Speaker 1: with Andy Molitor, which is outstanding, and then NBC Sports
Speaker 1: at the Edge, which he does with Jake Croucher. It's
Speaker 1: our buddy, Drew Dinset a whale underscore. Kapper was hadding it.
Speaker 4: Oh, just happy to be here, delighted as always, an
Speaker 4: honored to be invited to participate in the most important
Speaker 4: betting weekend of the year. Divisional Round is the best
Speaker 4: of these are the best games. You can make a
Speaker 4: credible case that we might be watching the Super Bowl
Speaker 4: to facto on Sunday afternoon. I don't think that's outrageous.
Speaker 4: And yeah, this is this is going to be a
Speaker 4: fun podcast. Happy to see you guys, and four Will's Vikings.
Speaker 4: I just want to paint a little I know that
Speaker 4: you know, losing an eighty to one future stinks, but
Speaker 4: I gotta tell you what, Like the infrastructure is there.
Speaker 4: You got a coach that can develop a quarterback, and
Speaker 4: you got a young quarterback that you're paying nothing for
Speaker 4: the next three years. Like if the sky should be
Speaker 4: blue for the Vikings because you have two elite weapons.
Speaker 4: You can invest your draft in your free agent resources
Speaker 4: now in the offensive line. It's unlikely now that Brian
Speaker 4: Flores gets sniped as a head coach. So the whole
Speaker 4: band comes back. Yeah, I think Minnesota is going to
Speaker 4: be a force to be reckoned with three years to come.
Speaker 3: I appreciate the pep talk. I think you're right. The
Speaker 3: only problem is from a betting standpoint, that eighty one
Speaker 3: is going to be Like, yeah, but I agree with you.
Speaker 1: Can I can douse a little water on the fire
Speaker 1: of the Minnesota Vikings. Just I want to throw this
Speaker 1: out and see if you guys buy into this. That
Speaker 1: they have had now I think even beyond this year,
Speaker 1: I think for two years running now, they have had
Speaker 1: a particularly fortunate one score wrecord. Oh yeah, and I do.
Speaker 1: I do wonder if you go to a rookie quarterback
Speaker 1: if that's as likely to manifest even beyond normal regression.
Speaker 1: So that's that's just the one thing I would say
Speaker 1: about the Vikings. I get it, Washington, you agree?
Speaker 5: What do you, guys, Washington about the other quarterback from
Speaker 5: Michigan is stinks? Okay, JJ McCarthy, please give me a break.
Speaker 5: Did you guys watch any college football? He is going
Speaker 5: to be terrible. And Sam Darnold is who we thought
Speaker 5: he was. He and so is Russell Wilson. He's who
Speaker 5: we thought was. They're going nowhere. You don't have a quarterback,
Speaker 5: my friend, You're going nowhere now, Drew like put lipstick
Speaker 5: on a pig and tell you you're going somewhere. You're going nowhere,
Speaker 5: and you're going fast.
Speaker 1: Wow. I wish nev fair friend. Point counterpoint with Will Hill, No,
Speaker 1: I think it's I don't know, man, it sucks because again,
Speaker 1: fourteen and three and then poof is not fun. And
Speaker 1: obviously if we have an eighty to one that is
Speaker 1: not fun at all. I do wonder if go ahead,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry ahead.
Speaker 4: Like you could have gotten Daniel Jones with Sam Donald though,
Speaker 4: if they pay him for you dollars, are you feeling good?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 4: I don't think so.
Speaker 3: Like it's the unknown of McCarthy and then it's the
Speaker 3: known of Donald in the flaws and giving him the money.
Speaker 3: So it's not like you have a slam dunk even
Speaker 3: b plus quarterback next year.
Speaker 1: You don't.
Speaker 2: You have unknown and unknown.
Speaker 1: I I bring this up also because it's our it's
Speaker 1: our buddy at churn Off brought this up. Someone sent
Speaker 1: me a video of him talk about Washington now. But
Speaker 1: I just want to bring this up before we start
Speaker 1: with our bets, which is Adam. I don't know if
Speaker 1: he had Tampa Bay and we love Adam, but he
Speaker 1: had I don't know if he had Tampa Bay and
Speaker 1: it was just bitter about this whatever. But it was
Speaker 1: a video that said he called Washington the luckiest team
Speaker 1: of his life. And I object to this characterization as
Speaker 1: a Washington fan because I believe that they're you know,
Speaker 1: he's in the video he cited. I believe third down
Speaker 1: and fourth down conversion, and I think not all third
Speaker 1: down and fourth down conversions are equal. I think if
Speaker 1: you look at the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. That
Speaker 1: was a particularly fortunate team that had a wildly successful
Speaker 1: rate of like third and seven's and longer. This Skins
Speaker 1: team is not like. This is very short yardage with
Speaker 1: a magic man as quarterback. There is never a time
Speaker 1: where you feel like it is impossible for them to convert.
Speaker 1: It is very casual. And I don't find them lucky.
Speaker 1: I mean you have to have some good fortune, sure,
Speaker 1: but by and large I don't find them lucky at all.
Speaker 1: Am I wrong about that?
Speaker 4: I mean there's degrees of luck. You know, the fact
Speaker 4: that they got to play Dallas twice when Dak Prescott
Speaker 4: wasn't the quarterback, that's that's fortunate. The fact that they
Speaker 4: got to they had four a fourth place schedule, the
Speaker 4: Hail Mary game, they did have some some end of
Speaker 4: end of game things break in their favor. But we
Speaker 4: could make it. We could make a list. But yeah,
Speaker 4: Redy Morris, we can make a list. But I don't
Speaker 4: think they would come up in the top ten of
Speaker 4: lucky teams in recent memory.
Speaker 5: Fortune sure, but it's funny that you say that, Gilly,
Speaker 5: because I think you could argue the Vikings have a
Speaker 5: better roster. I'm not take out the quarterback for a second.
Speaker 5: The Vikings have a better roster than the Redskins. However,
Speaker 5: I'd rather be the Redskins because the Redskins have a
Speaker 5: quarterback who is going to be electric and can be
Speaker 5: in that top tier theoretically with the Mahomes's and the
Speaker 5: Jackson's and the Allen's and those people, whereas Minnesota a
Speaker 5: better roster but doesn't have that quarterback component. And I
Speaker 5: think in the NFL, if we look back at who
Speaker 5: wins the super Bowl every year, it seems to me
Speaker 5: the electric quarterback. Take Nick Foles out. I guess he's
Speaker 5: the outlier, but almost every year it's the incredible quarterback
Speaker 5: that wins the super Bowl. Jimmy Garrapple doesn't win the
Speaker 5: super Bowl, Mahomes wins the super Bowl. You know, Brock
Speaker 5: Party doesn't win the super Bowl. Mahomes wins the super Bowl.
Speaker 5: Jalen Hurts doesn't win the super Bowl. Homes wins the
Speaker 5: super Bowl.
Speaker 1: It's my line that you cannot win a super Bowl
Speaker 1: without a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback over
Speaker 1: performing on a rookie contract. Those are the only two
Speaker 1: ways to win a super Bowl. The last exception, what
Speaker 1: you brought up was Foles, but really Carson Wentz was
Speaker 1: on a rookie deal, so it doesn't really count. And
Speaker 1: before that you have to go all the way back
Speaker 1: to Brad Johnson and try Dilford two thousand and two
Speaker 1: with the Bucks, Brad Johnson two thousand Trent Dilford with
Speaker 1: the Ravens for an exception to that rule. That is
Speaker 1: about as steadfast as it gets. And so if you
Speaker 1: look at that of these you go ahead, well, I'm sorry.
Speaker 3: No, I agree completely with the sentiment. I would say
Speaker 3: there is a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy
Speaker 3: nature to it, where none of us would consider Eli
Speaker 3: Manning a Hall of Fame quarterback if he hadn't won
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. So it's like when you win the
Speaker 3: Super Bowls, now you're a Hall of Famer. So there
Speaker 3: is a little bit of like, you know, that aspect
Speaker 3: of it, like if Stafford hadn't won a Super Bowl,
Speaker 3: he probably wouldn't be All of Famer.
Speaker 2: ELI without the Super.
Speaker 1: Bowls is not ELI is the I'll give you Eli
Speaker 1: E LII is the only exception to that. Stafford might have
Speaker 1: accumulated enough stats or even if he didn't win a
Speaker 1: super Bowl.
Speaker 5: He was getting it all. Maybe like he has, Stafford
Speaker 5: is later than Sam Donald. Do you think like if
Speaker 5: we if we if we say, okay, here's Sam Donald
Speaker 5: at age whatever he is, and here's Stafford at at
Speaker 5: that same age. Stafford's a much better quarterback than that
Speaker 5: guy that Sam Donald is. You know, he's he's worked.
Speaker 5: You know you can win some games with Sam Donald,
Speaker 5: but you never say to yourself, oh my god, Sam
Speaker 5: Donald's gonna take it to the super Bowl. I don't
Speaker 5: see it.
Speaker 1: DoD, what were our records last week? Do you know?
Speaker 5: I know I was had an outstanding record, Gilly with
Speaker 5: a two and oh and a one and oh and
Speaker 5: teasers as well, Rams which was beautiful in Texans, which
Speaker 5: was beautiful. You also had Rams plus seven and Commanders
Speaker 5: plus nine on the teasers, so two and oh one
Speaker 5: and oh for you, Willy went one and one one oh.
Speaker 5: I had a terrible oh and two with my yensers
Speaker 5: and the Tampa Bay over oh and two oh and one,
Speaker 5: and the guests had two and oh and oh and
Speaker 5: one on the teasers.
Speaker 2: Clevela, what were my picks, Toddy? Your picks were Washington
Speaker 2: plus three and Rams plus one so you lost Washington
Speaker 2: plus three. No, you're actually two.
Speaker 3: He does this all year, He does this all year.
Speaker 3: In the last place, Yeah, because he had Washington.
Speaker 2: Why did I give myself in two?
Speaker 6: Then?
Speaker 2: Why did I give myself into then creative accounting?
Speaker 1: He hates Washington that much, He hates me that much
Speaker 1: that he was just like.
Speaker 2: What you talk about.
Speaker 6: I had Washington. I had Washington.
Speaker 5: And by the way, I think we were very fortunate
Speaker 5: to win that game without the Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: You know, is right? Everybody everybody says that you're right
Speaker 1: the Baker Mayfield fumble at the end. Oh wow, you
Speaker 1: were fortunate about that. But how many points did Washington
Speaker 1: leave on the board in that game? Also? Right? Like me,
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of that.
Speaker 6: But that was the problem to get it inside the
Speaker 6: five yard line. And they could not run the ball
Speaker 6: at all on Tampa, so they were one dimensional and
Speaker 6: then they were having massive problems once the field got small.
Speaker 6: You couldn't throw it up in there. And I just
Speaker 6: don't know if if if that's gonna if they can't
Speaker 6: run the ball against the Lions, Katie bar the door,
Speaker 6: the Lions are gonna win by a million.
Speaker 1: You better run, Washington had a Washington had a first
Speaker 1: and goal with the three where they had to settle
Speaker 1: for a field goal, and they had a first and
Speaker 1: goal at the one where they got zero points. So right, yeah,
Speaker 1: you're right, Baker Mayfield fumble. But let let's decide what's
Speaker 1: fortunate and what's not. I mean, I don't care how
Speaker 1: bad your running game is. First and goal at the one,
Speaker 1: you kind of have to knock it in, right, Like,
Speaker 1: you're still not fortunate not getting it in. So I
Speaker 1: don't know if we did a if we did a
Speaker 1: Dumbo of the Week, I don't think there's like a
Speaker 1: massively obvious candidate. But I'll throw out a few things.
Speaker 1: There was a fourth in inches for Mike Tomlin in
Speaker 1: his own territory early in that game against the Ravens
Speaker 1: where he decided to punt. It wasn't four than one,
Speaker 1: it was fourth in inches. I'll throw that out there.
Speaker 1: Todd Bowles had a couple he let ten seconds run
Speaker 1: off the clock for no reason at the end of
Speaker 1: the first half. The Bucks ended up scoring anyway after
Speaker 1: after Mike Evans threw Latimore down to the ground and
Speaker 1: then Latimore got flagged for the subsequent thing. But before
Speaker 1: that he let ten seconds go off the board. Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay scored anyway. And then the very first thing that
Speaker 1: happened in that Tampa Bay Washington game. It was a
Speaker 1: fourth and seven for Tampa Bay. They kicked the fifty
Speaker 1: yard field goal, but Washington was called off side. Washing
Speaker 1: was called for off side. It was a fourth and two,
Speaker 1: and Todd Bowles said, we'll just keep the points.
Speaker 5: So there was the first half Raheem Bowls. That was
Speaker 5: the worst that at the end of the first half
Speaker 5: with his.
Speaker 1: Bowl, I think that's it. Like I'm thinking of the
Speaker 1: other gives. The other gives were such blowouts that there
Speaker 1: wasn't anything.
Speaker 3: Didn't Sean Payton have some things where he should have
Speaker 3: challenged or a couple of things. I honestly, once uh
Speaker 3: Buffalo got in control, I was kind of doing other
Speaker 3: things and had the game on in the background. I
Speaker 3: know some people said Peyton did some Peyton did some
Speaker 3: strange things in terms of what he what he did
Speaker 3: or didn't challenge.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: Did you did you catch that, Drew?
Speaker 4: I was, I was like you, I was as soon
Speaker 4: as it was like this thing is over.
Speaker 2: There was one catch.
Speaker 5: I think it might have been in the Bills game,
Speaker 5: which is like a long pass to Concaid. I think
Speaker 5: it was maybe a thirty yard past to Cancaid and
Speaker 5: the ball clearly hit the ground and the Bills knew
Speaker 5: it and they ran up and quickly ran a play
Speaker 5: and made it before I think referring to yeah, okay, yeah.
Speaker 5: Some of the times it might be a giveaway if
Speaker 5: the other team's rushing to run and play and they're
Speaker 5: all maybe that's a giveaway.
Speaker 6: You want to get.
Speaker 2: Your replay guy out there and figure it out.
Speaker 3: But the flip side of that is you take your time,
Speaker 3: and while you're taking your time, they're gonna catch They're
Speaker 3: going to see the uh there. So it's really hard
Speaker 3: to let's be casual, but let's get this off very quickly.
Speaker 1: It's very hard to do both.
Speaker 5: Oh no, I'm saying the other team, if you see
Speaker 5: the other team hurrying, you better get your red flag
Speaker 5: out because they're obviously hurrying for a reason.
Speaker 4: You were suggest.
Speaker 3: Yeah was it the forty nine Ers Eagles NFC title
Speaker 3: game a couple years ago, DeVante Smith the first drive
Speaker 3: clearly drops the ball. He's telling the whole team, Hey,
Speaker 3: get on the ball. Get on the ball. Shanahan's just
Speaker 3: sitting there watching it happen, and it was a drop
Speaker 3: and then yeah, the whole game, you know, went off
Speaker 3: the rails from there.
Speaker 1: The one down at like the five yard line, that one.
Speaker 3: Yes, fourth down terrible.
Speaker 1: Yeah, brutal. I'm sorry.
Speaker 4: I thought overall the coaching was pretty fair and pretty
Speaker 4: good across the wild card weekend. I'll give my Dumbo
Speaker 4: of the Week to uh Sirianni and Kellen Moore.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 4: To have that offensive output with all of those weapons
Speaker 4: against at home against the Green Bay defense, that's not
Speaker 4: really worth writing home about it, I think is pretty
Speaker 4: It's pretty suss. Although the Eagles are going to come
Speaker 4: up again in a bit for and I'm going to
Speaker 4: have a very different take, I think.
Speaker 3: Yeah, by the way, when a small one, can I
Speaker 3: have one small one? It was O'Connell please taking his
Speaker 3: sweet ass time like late in that game, running the ball,
Speaker 3: huddling almost like.
Speaker 2: Bleeding they were going to come back. That was just
Speaker 2: very bizarre.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually the winner. That was weird. There were
Speaker 1: two consecutive running plays when they were down multiple scores,
Speaker 1: and you're like, what are they doing?
Speaker 4: Yeah, they ate five minutes on a drive that ended
Speaker 4: up as a punt between the third and fourth quarter
Speaker 4: and the game is over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, they were trying to just over the line.
Speaker 5: They were getting nineteen and a half, I believe on
Speaker 5: the old line minus five eighty or something like that,
Speaker 5: and so O'Connell had that bet.
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're trying to defend the second half plus six too,
Speaker 4: and you know, or minus six. They didn't get there.
Speaker 1: Well aware, by the way, nine sacks of Donald. Give
Speaker 1: me the pie chart on what percentage fault that was
Speaker 1: was Donald's and what was the offensive line?
Speaker 4: Seven out of nine Darnald. Yeah, the time, the time
Speaker 4: that he was taking to make the decisions and the
Speaker 4: inability to even consider the checkdowns was pretty pretty brutal.
Speaker 4: But again, like that was the narrative coming into that
Speaker 4: was the handicap coming into that game, which is the
Speaker 4: Rams can get quick pressure up the middle. And the
Speaker 4: major takeaway of Mike's Lions was that Donald was staring
Speaker 4: down the pressure like they kind of didn't matter who
Speaker 4: was coming when he was. He just wasn't he wasn't
Speaker 4: playing quarterback.
Speaker 1: Throw the ball away, man, like he just oh oh.
Speaker 4: There was guys open those guy's open underneath all day.
Speaker 4: It was. That was a weird one.
Speaker 5: The Rams deserves the trip of the hat they've given
Speaker 5: up and three in the last four real games. I'm
Speaker 5: not counting the last game of the year where it
Speaker 5: wasn't really a game. I'm talking about the real games.
Speaker 5: I mean, no one would have said that before those
Speaker 5: four games. The previous game for that, they give it
Speaker 5: forty two or forty four to the Bills. After that nine, nine,
Speaker 5: nine and three, no one had them not getting the
Speaker 5: other team to double digits four.
Speaker 2: Times in a row.
Speaker 1: And Todd knows that because Steve Feszig and I were
Speaker 1: batting it back and forth about this line for the
Speaker 1: Rams Philly game where we're OPO, as we'll find out
Speaker 1: here momentarily. So Todd researched that. Okay, by the way,
Speaker 1: Drew had a spectacular wildcar weekend. He already told me,
Speaker 1: was like, ah, man should come on last week, so
Speaker 1: let's see.
Speaker 4: Well, it sounds like you guy, It sounds like Cleve
Speaker 4: did did well. No, and I think we had the
Speaker 4: same two sides, So that's good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would be both you and me between football
Speaker 1: and tennis. This is a great run for both of us.
Speaker 1: So let's see we can continue it with the divisional
Speaker 1: round here. I assume there was no in game todd
Speaker 1: to speak of, and go to the bets.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I didn't really do much on the in game
Speaker 5: on the wild could I was busy losing money in
Speaker 5: college basketball.
Speaker 1: Okay, so what's the story. We do two picks here
Speaker 1: again for divisional round. Two picks, yes, yes, two picks. Okay, Drew,
Speaker 1: you start, sir, what is your first best?
Speaker 4: Okay, this is tough. These are all pretty good numbers.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna I'm gonna go. I'm gonna stick stick with
Speaker 4: what got me here. Two weeks in a row, I've
Speaker 4: gone him backing the Texans, and I still am surprised
Speaker 4: that the market is not correctly adjusting for what is
Speaker 4: the best defense playing right now and across all the
Speaker 4: football and in a new setting. There is certainly a
Speaker 4: lot to be said about the fact that Mahomes is
Speaker 4: on the other sideline. Andy Reid has had an extra
Speaker 4: week to prepare for you, and in general, the Chiefs
Speaker 4: are healthy at home obviously, But over the balance of
Speaker 4: the season, I think we've learned a couple important things
Speaker 4: about the Chiefs. They don't have any tackles, they are
Speaker 4: susceptible to pass rush, particularly quick pressures around the edge,
Speaker 4: and Pad Mahomes, for whatever reason, has regressed in terms
Speaker 4: of his ability to be the magician that never gets sacked.
Speaker 4: He has taken a lot more sacks this year and
Speaker 4: has been a lot less effective as a scrambler for
Speaker 4: reasons unknown. But I think a lot of it has
Speaker 4: to do with the quality of the tackle play that
Speaker 4: they've had throughout the balance of the season, and I
Speaker 4: think Houston is definitely capable of continuing their brilliance in
Speaker 4: terms of pass rush and quick pressure. On top of that,
Speaker 4: Mahomes and this just the schematic kind of identity of
Speaker 4: the Chiefs this year has been a lot more vertical passing.
Speaker 4: They are trying to push the ball further downfield, and
Speaker 4: while they do have the weapons certainly to create separation
Speaker 4: and win at the point of point of the catch.
Speaker 4: This is the most outstanding cornerback unit that they've come
Speaker 4: up against. And these guys are playing with confidence and
Speaker 4: they are literally keen on a couple of key takeaways
Speaker 4: per game, and I think, really if they can create
Speaker 4: some turnovers and generate some pressure, I think the Texans
Speaker 4: are alive to be the spoiler this week, but the
Speaker 4: fact that they're getting eight points is really I think
Speaker 4: a bridge too far. My fear for this one is seven,
Speaker 4: and actually consensus says eight and a half, So I'll
Speaker 4: take eight and a half. And I think ultimately like
Speaker 4: the Texans offense is just a brutal, brutal entity. It
Speaker 4: is not fun to watch. It is not well schemed,
Speaker 4: it's not well structured, and Bobby Slowic sequencing is appalling.
Speaker 4: The running is extremely predictable, and the interior pass the
Speaker 4: interior of the offensive line needs to be completely replaced
Speaker 4: if they're going to be a functional offense next year.
Speaker 4: And they're up against Chris Jones, who can be a
Speaker 4: complete game wrecker. So I get it that it's going
Speaker 4: to be a little bit of a fragile situation. If
Speaker 4: Houston can have a couple of clean drives and generate
Speaker 4: I mean, the Chiefs can have a couple clean drives
Speaker 4: and generate a lead. But I do think one of
Speaker 4: the other kind of Achilles heels we've seen throughout the
Speaker 4: season for this Chiefs defense is their ability to defend
Speaker 4: elite wide receivers and Nico Collins is that guy right now,
Speaker 4: and so fingers crossed, he gets like fifteen targets in
Speaker 4: this game. I think the fact that CJ. Stroud was
Speaker 4: consistently under pressure up the middle against the Chargers and
Speaker 4: comported himself effectively is a positive sign. The fact that
Speaker 4: he was kind of back to doing his magical stuff
Speaker 4: at third and a million is a positive sign. And
Speaker 4: I think the Texans are alive to be a little
Speaker 4: bit of a fly annointment of what otherwise looks to
Speaker 4: be a pretty predictable championship game weekend.
Speaker 2: So Texans plus nine is your pick.
Speaker 4: Eight and a half, which I think is consensus right now.
Speaker 2: I was gonna give you a nine.
Speaker 4: Zirka has eight. The only nine out there is is
Speaker 4: pretty is pretty expensive. I'll take a flat eight and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 2: Okay, So Texans plus eight and a half for Drew.
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this question, Drew, I too was
Speaker 1: on the Texans mine last week. I cited the Chargers
Speaker 1: strength of victory. Their paltry three forty eight strength of
Speaker 1: victory made three forty eight by their two wins over
Speaker 1: the Broncos. They don't have those, it's even more anemic.
Speaker 1: But I just want to ask this, there's no way
Speaker 1: to know the answer, but I'm always curious about you
Speaker 1: guys view stuff like this. So we won that bet.
Speaker 1: They end up winning by twenty points. It ends up
Speaker 1: not being a sweat at all.
Speaker 2: But if CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud doesn't complete at third and sixteen from their own
Speaker 1: seventeen where the snap goes past him, he collects the
Speaker 1: ball flushed out to the right, find Xavier Hutchinson down
Speaker 1: the middle for thirty four yards. If that doesn't happen,
Speaker 1: do you believe we win that bet?
Speaker 4: In the uh? Maybe right before that play, I think
Speaker 4: I was texting with Andy and I was like, I can't, Like,
Speaker 4: I really hope they get some points on this track
Speaker 4: so I can get the heck off this. But but no,
Speaker 4: But the fact that they that he completed those third
Speaker 4: and forever like miracle stuff, and the fact that they
Speaker 4: were finally targeting Nico, I was like, oh, I was like,
Speaker 4: I was like I was waiting to see this, like
Speaker 4: thank you, like finally, and and stayed well, I was
Speaker 4: waiting for halftime. They got three more points at halftime,
Speaker 4: and then I was like, well, now it doesn't actually
Speaker 4: now the price doesn't even make sense.
Speaker 1: To get off.
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna ride this and see if they
Speaker 4: can can put it away. And ultimately, the you know,
Speaker 4: the defense was able to come up with points themselves
Speaker 4: to seal it. And you know, again like there's there's certainly,
Speaker 4: you know, Pat Mahlomes is the boogeyman, Like I know this,
Speaker 4: Like I'm not an idiot. I'm on against him in
Speaker 4: this spot in playoffs past and then been regretful and uh,
Speaker 4: you know, certainly the fact that he plays with so
Speaker 4: much confidence because he's been here so many times and
Speaker 4: it's just completely unflapped, unflappable in the playoff setting is
Speaker 4: not lost on me. But yeah, there's there's a world
Speaker 4: where you know, people like, oh, that's the Pat Mahomes
Speaker 4: I saw in the Super Bowl against the Buccaneers who
Speaker 4: was running for his life and you know this was
Speaker 4: you know, trying to play catch up. And you know,
Speaker 4: I like that as part of the kind of distribution
Speaker 4: of potential outcomes for this game as opposed to you know,
Speaker 4: a game where the Texans just are a no show.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I just always find that that being
Speaker 1: fascinating out football. This doesn't apply for basketball. It doesn't
Speaker 1: necessarily apply for baseball either. Football is one of these
Speaker 1: things where it's like, look, we won by twenty we
Speaker 1: had the dog, easy, peasy, but like if that one
Speaker 1: thing doesn't happen in the certain quarter, yeah, you.
Speaker 4: Know, like if you bet, if you bet the Eagles,
Speaker 4: you need to do some soul searching if you feel
Speaker 4: like that was a comfortable one.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and an NFL it happens more than in college football.
Speaker 5: I feel like like one play in the NFL can
Speaker 5: be the whole game, whereas in college the kind of
Speaker 5: cream rises the top. It seems like they're it's not
Speaker 5: just down to one play typically, But I don't know anyways.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, as as better as we don't necessarily
Speaker 1: acknowledge that all the time, right, cool.
Speaker 2: I acknowledge that.
Speaker 5: I was very happy that Baker Mayfield. I kept texting
Speaker 5: you guys saying, when is Baker Mayfield going to have
Speaker 5: a brain fart like he always does, and it's got
Speaker 5: to come here sooner or later.
Speaker 2: And then he finally did one, and it was like, thankful.
Speaker 1: Since you bring this up. I wasn't going to bring
Speaker 1: this up, but Will knows where I'm going where I'm
Speaker 1: going with this, so We're on a group Textsikk, Me,
Speaker 1: Will and Todd. So this is the first playoff game
Speaker 1: as a Washington fan, right, I've had in years. I
Speaker 1: haven't won one in nineteen years. Todd will not stop
Speaker 1: walking texting the whole time. It's not as simple as
Speaker 1: putting the phone away, because every time it I'm like,
Speaker 1: what happened? Oh, something was about to happen, and I'm
Speaker 1: just like, Todd, shut up.
Speaker 2: I was being rather negative. I'll be honest.
Speaker 5: I was being rather negative because I didn't like my
Speaker 5: Washington bed and every person get into five yard one
Speaker 5: can't get a score, and and then I stopped, and
Speaker 5: then I was much more positive after that. But because
Speaker 5: it was your first playoff game since, you know, back
Speaker 5: before the Barry Bonds and Joe Gibbs administration. So uh, anyways,
Speaker 5: we pulled it out. But I did text in the
Speaker 5: middle there where is when is Baker Mayfield going to
Speaker 5: make a Baker Mayfield brain fart?
Speaker 3: And and he texted a lot of things, So I mean,
Speaker 3: you could have filled a lot of playing with anything there.
Speaker 3: If there was a referee for our group chat, If
Speaker 3: there was a referee our group chat, you would have
Speaker 3: fouled out multiple times?
Speaker 5: Was it not right that Mike Evans throws the guy
Speaker 5: downy track of anything?
Speaker 3: And I was rooting for I had Washington too, I'm
Speaker 3: rooting for Gilly. I'm kind of living vicariously through Gilly.
Speaker 3: Of like, man, the excitement of is the stress of
Speaker 3: this thing. It's tought everything, man, I can't I can't
Speaker 3: believe that plan.
Speaker 6: Chris FeliCa.
Speaker 5: That was a legitimate pass interference. Mike Evans literally knife
Speaker 5: the guy at gunpoint. He stabbed him with the machete
Speaker 5: while holding on eighteen forty and then what with a
Speaker 5: penalty a lot of more.
Speaker 2: Give me a break, Chris, that was not a legitimate penalty.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry.
Speaker 5: Your best bets, my best bet is going to be unfortunately.
Speaker 2: What do you have for the Lions game? Nine and
Speaker 2: a half? Yeah?
Speaker 4: And a half.
Speaker 7: I'm gonna lay nine and a half with Dan Campbell
Speaker 7: minus the nine and a half, and I'll tell you
Speaker 7: why there's a guy down in Pittsburgh almost I had
Speaker 7: a heart attack with that Redskins team last week.
Speaker 5: We're gonna kick the crap out of those boys. I
Speaker 5: think if you have problems in the red zone, against
Speaker 5: the Lions. It's curtains, baby, because the lies. Look the commanders,
Speaker 5: I know Gilly likes to make excuses for his commander's defense.
Speaker 5: The commander's defense is not good, okay, and the whole
Speaker 5: game I'm holding on with dear life. Please, can somebody
Speaker 5: stop Mike Evans from running wide open down the middle
Speaker 5: of the field or that auton guy. Look, the commanders
Speaker 5: did a great job, you know, duct taping that defense together,
Speaker 5: but now you're going against the juggernaut of juggernaut offenses inside.
Speaker 5: There's no weather inside. Jared Goff is gonna pick these
Speaker 5: boys apart. They're gonna run for a mile. That guy
Speaker 5: Bucky Irving is still running on some of these run plays.
Speaker 5: I don't even know where the Redskins defense was at all.
Speaker 5: They literally were. And what's funny is because there's so
Speaker 5: few possessions in that game, there was barely any stops
Speaker 5: in the whole game. If you think about it. You know,
Speaker 5: Mayfield stopped himself on that fumble, and then they stopped
Speaker 5: themselves on that third and one with the stupid handoff.
Speaker 5: I just don't see the commander's defense being able to
Speaker 5: slow the Lions down. And if the If, the If,
Speaker 5: the Skins who. By the way, I love this team.
Speaker 5: I even bet them to win the Super Bowl at
Speaker 5: like twenty two. Well, I love Daniels. I think he's
Speaker 5: gonna be amazing. I just think they're they're a great
Speaker 5: story and they're gonna you're gonna hear from this team
Speaker 5: in the future. But now you're asking them to go
Speaker 5: on the road against a juggernaut offense that is going
Speaker 5: to not be stopped. So now you have to score
Speaker 5: with them. Well, there's not gonna be anything bullshit about it.
Speaker 5: Well we got inside the ten eight hundred times and
Speaker 5: we didn't get it in. Well, you better get it
Speaker 5: in because if you don't get it in, you're gonna
Speaker 5: get blown out. And I think that's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 5: I think the luck is finally where the fortunateivity. While
Speaker 5: was I don't agree with Adam Turnoff that they're the
Speaker 5: most lucky team in the history of the NFL, I
Speaker 5: do think they've been quite fortunate this year. I don't
Speaker 5: see it. Lions minus nine and a half this week.
Speaker 5: I think it's I think the storybooks coming to an end.
Speaker 1: I have said all year. I have said all year,
Speaker 1: they are a playoff team that could maximum win one player.
Speaker 1: So nothing about that.
Speaker 4: No, uh no, no concern that the Washington franchise owns
Speaker 4: the lines in the playoffs. Three now in the history
Speaker 4: of the Grave franchise. Yes, Wayne Fawns, I remember the
Speaker 4: NFC championship game in nineteen ninety two. That was a
Speaker 4: spectacular forty one absolute thumping. Yes, Mark on the.
Speaker 3: Side, I thought, Darryl same age. That's about when I
Speaker 3: start like I watched football those years. But I think
Speaker 3: ninety three ninety four, like those Bill's Cowboys, is probably
Speaker 3: my first memory. I don't remember, like that's right at
Speaker 3: the cutoff of like that's a game.
Speaker 1: I just don't remember.
Speaker 3: How old are you?
Speaker 4: Drew?
Speaker 5: That was?
Speaker 1: That was Aaron Shotts's greatest football team of all time,
Speaker 1: the nineteen Washington I.
Speaker 5: Remember I heard Barry Bonds running the ball and throwing.
Speaker 4: They washed ever to that season before they took a loss,
Speaker 4: that we were we were talking. You know, they knew
Speaker 4: those guys were gods. In my elementary school classroom. We
Speaker 4: were talking about in an undefeated season and then the
Speaker 4: Cowboys punked them, but they still and it was awesome.
Speaker 1: Levin to know what I want to say, And Michael
Speaker 1: Irvin kept posting up Darryl Green and Cowboys beat him.
Speaker 1: Greatest team of all time, Toddy his team of all time?
Speaker 1: Mark Ripping? How many times were you just sacked all year?
Speaker 1: Good trivia question? Anyone? Vin?
Speaker 4: Seven? Was it seven?
Speaker 1: Seven?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 2: I thought Bonds was the quarterback that year, not Ripping.
Speaker 2: But anyways, Willie, what's your pick?
Speaker 3: I'll go pretty quickly here. I don't have a ton
Speaker 3: that I love, as you guys kind of mentioned, as
Speaker 3: Drew mentioned, I will go under forty one and a
Speaker 3: half Texans chief I do believe that's the consensus number.
Speaker 3: I just think the Chiefs are getting healthier on defense.
Speaker 3: Watson back is going to be something that matters the defense.
Speaker 3: With and without him, there's a big difference there. I
Speaker 3: think that he Houston is legitimately good on defense and outdoors.
Speaker 3: A Houston team, you know, with a shaky offense playing
Speaker 3: cold weather on the road. I just look at like
Speaker 3: a twenty four to seventeen type of game. There's not
Speaker 3: a ton of wiggle room. But I just think Kansas
Speaker 3: City healthier defensively. Houston really good defensively, Kansas City not
Speaker 3: as explosive as in years past, you know, as we've learned.
Speaker 3: So I will go under forty one and a half here.
Speaker 1: I have made two bets, which is convenient that we
Speaker 1: have two plays here. I have exactly that many bets.
Speaker 1: I am on the Los Angles Rams plus six versus
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles. This is the one where Fezik and
Speaker 1: I disagree on vehementley. I couldn't believe that a full six.
Speaker 1: It was a violent disagreement. In the words of Michael Lombardi,
Speaker 1: it was a violent disagreement. I violently disagree with you, Gil,
Speaker 1: I'm like violently.
Speaker 2: H Speaking of which is that guy went to eight
Speaker 2: thousand kids.
Speaker 6: Is he in the Hall of Fame yet?
Speaker 2: Philip Rivers?
Speaker 1: No, not yet, it's not eligible.
Speaker 2: There was a guy who got.
Speaker 5: Very upset when I was on ANG and said, I
Speaker 5: don't think Philip Rivers is a Hall of Famer. And
Speaker 5: he told me and I said, I don't want to
Speaker 5: live in a world where Philip Rivers is a Hall
Speaker 5: of Famer.
Speaker 2: He got very upset with me.
Speaker 1: Think I get the argument against the Rams people who
Speaker 1: love Philly, but that the Rams again they're going to
Speaker 1: be in cold weather. Everything that's going back going on
Speaker 1: back in LA with the Wildfires. It's one thing to
Speaker 1: play a de facto home game in Arizona. It's another
Speaker 1: thing to go three thousand miles to play at Philly.
Speaker 1: But I think the Rams are that team. I've always said,
Speaker 1: besides the usual suspects this year, besides the Ravens, Bills,
Speaker 1: Chiefs in the AFC, besides the Lions and Eagles in
Speaker 1: the NFC, that the Rams are the sneaky, freaky team here,
Speaker 1: that they are built in a way that fits the
Speaker 1: profile of past Super Bowl champions. I'm not saying they're
Speaker 1: winning the Super Bowl. I'm saying, of all the other teams,
Speaker 1: they have a Hall of Fame quarterback, have a good
Speaker 1: running game, they have a great pass rush. There's a
Speaker 1: lot to love about this team. And I'm sorry that
Speaker 1: Puka Nakua is exactly the kind of wide receiver I
Speaker 1: want out there against the Eagles in that environment. Tough
Speaker 1: player the Eagles. A lot of people are dismissing that
Speaker 1: Eagles performance last week as well. Listen, Jared Jalen Hurts
Speaker 1: from the concussion didn't really get the reps. That was
Speaker 1: a really listless performance. I'm not so quick to dismiss it.
Speaker 1: You're giving me six points. I will happily take the sick.
Speaker 1: Rams are right first, Drew Ski, your number two are
Speaker 1: we OPO.
Speaker 4: We're APO, And yeah, I took the best defense in
Speaker 4: the AFC catching points in the first one, and I'm
Speaker 4: going to back the best defense in the NFC laying
Speaker 4: points in the second of my two picks, and it
Speaker 4: is the Philadelphia Eagles. And this is not really to
Speaker 4: take away any of your argument there, but I will
Speaker 4: say that there is a big picking sides at this
Speaker 4: stage is flipping coins. These are very very well understood markets,
Speaker 4: and I'm literally keying on what I think is a
Speaker 4: pretty aggressive step up in terms of style of defense
Speaker 4: that the Rams were preparing for last week compared to
Speaker 4: what they're going to see with the Eagles. In general,
Speaker 4: I look at an Eagles defense that you know, what
Speaker 4: vic Fangio has done to really kind of coach up
Speaker 4: the young guys is spectacular. I think he has done
Speaker 4: the best coordinating job of anyone this year. We can
Speaker 4: point to Ben Johnson, but he's working with so many
Speaker 4: weapons it's almost an embarrassment of riches. Vic Fangio is
Speaker 4: employing a really complex defense that kind of takes away
Speaker 4: what Sean McVay does the best, I think, and the
Speaker 4: fact that they can generate pressure with their front four
Speaker 4: pretty consistently is just kind of the huge element here.
Speaker 4: The Eagles really don't have to blitz much to generate pressure,
Speaker 4: and the Eagles were able to contain this running attack
Speaker 4: extremely effectively. The first time these team played, Karen Williams,
Speaker 4: every time he touched the ball was a minus in
Speaker 4: that head to head, And I think that just in general,
Speaker 4: the Eagles defense is going to be the standout unit here.
Speaker 4: With the support of the home crowd and the travel
Speaker 4: issues for the Rams, the early kickoff for the Rams,
Speaker 4: the short week for the Rams, and in general, like
Speaker 4: there was a couple of guys get that got banged
Speaker 4: up pretty quietly in that game for the Rams offense,
Speaker 4: that I think is kind of good. You know, everybody's
Speaker 4: playing hurt this time of year. I know that, but
Speaker 4: you know, if they are step slow, and if the
Speaker 4: Eagles defenses, you know, comes in, comes in and performs
Speaker 4: to their baseline. I think the Rams are going to
Speaker 4: have a tough time getting into the twenties here. And
Speaker 4: while I do not love going to war with Jalen Hurts,
Speaker 4: he is not my guy. I do think that last
Speaker 4: week a lot of his issues were related to the rust.
Speaker 4: He missed almost twenty days of practice, and you know,
Speaker 4: it felt like in a lot of ways they didn't
Speaker 4: really know what they were going to get from him
Speaker 4: where they coordinated the game. And I think with a
Speaker 4: full week of normal practice and kind of lessons learned
Speaker 4: from the tape against the Packers, you're going to get
Speaker 4: a little bit more. You know, it's cleaner offensive performance
Speaker 4: here from the from the Eagles. And on top of that,
Speaker 4: like the Rams defense was awesome last week, and Todd
Speaker 4: brought it up that they've been on a little bit
Speaker 4: of a heater. They do one thing well and that
Speaker 4: is generated interior quick pressure, and the Eagles have the
Speaker 4: perfect counter to that, which is the best interior offensive
Speaker 4: line of football. And I think that in general, if
Speaker 4: you are not getting quick pressure against Jalen Hurts and
Speaker 4: AJ Brown and DeVante Smith, are you know, be able
Speaker 4: to create separation against a cornerback unit that is bottom half,
Speaker 4: if not bottom ten in the NFL, then I think
Speaker 4: the passing game is going to look a lot cleaner here. Similarly,
Speaker 4: the screen game with Saquon Barkley is going to be
Speaker 4: very difficult for the Rams to have, you know, just
Speaker 4: perfect tackling against and and yeah, I'm just in general
Speaker 4: seeing a pretty balanced attack here for the Eagles against
Speaker 4: a Rams team that's going to be stuck in mud,
Speaker 4: against a better defensive styling that kind of is hand
Speaker 4: in glove to stop them. So Eagles minus six for me.
Speaker 4: And yeah, it's painful because the biggest win of my
Speaker 4: life was Rams Super Bowl in twenty twenty one and uh,
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup getting that m VP and h it, I don't,
Speaker 4: I don't, I'm not seeing it this year. They needed
Speaker 4: like the Rams could win the Super Bowl this year,
Speaker 4: but they needed the Packers to play a better game.
Speaker 4: They just needed Packers to play a cleaner game and
Speaker 4: get it right, get knocked the knock the Eagles out,
Speaker 4: and then the Rams are are on their way to
Speaker 4: New Orleans. And I think this is the one opponent
Speaker 4: that they match up poorly against.
Speaker 1: Well when you put it that, no, I'm Drew and
Speaker 1: they okay, Todd, because we got to go Will out
Speaker 1: of here. So let's uh, let's race through. What's you're saying.
Speaker 2: I'm going to go under in that same game. I
Speaker 2: think that the Rams defense has really been playing well.
Speaker 5: We've already talked about that. I think the Eagles defense
Speaker 5: is elle illegally. I think we're I mean their defense,
Speaker 5: granted they played horribone offense, but their defense was outstanding.
Speaker 5: I thought, you know, the Green Bay everyone's down on
Speaker 5: them because the last week's the season, But there was
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks there they were just mowing people
Speaker 5: down with their offense, and you couldn't stop their run game.
Speaker 5: You couldn't stop anything they were doing. The Eagles made
Speaker 5: it look easy defensively, so I think they're going to
Speaker 5: hold the Rams down. I think the Rams can hold
Speaker 5: the Eagles down.
Speaker 6: Again.
Speaker 5: We don't think the Eagles are clicking one hundred percent
Speaker 5: on offense, so under forty four to me looks good.
Speaker 5: I'll take under forty four in that Eagles game.
Speaker 1: Wilson Hillson, I'm.
Speaker 3: Going to go Ravens Bills. We have one and a
Speaker 3: half here, Ravens Lane. Yep, I'm gonna go with the Ravens.
Speaker 3: They played in Week four, Baltimore won convincingly by twenty
Speaker 3: five points, eight yards per play to four yards per play,
Speaker 3: and I just think Baltimore is better, and I think
Speaker 3: they're bigger. I think Buffalo is really small in the
Speaker 3: defensive line, and again, Henry, that's bad news. So I
Speaker 3: just think Baltimore is better than Buffalo by more than
Speaker 3: the gap of home field advantage, whatever that's worth. I
Speaker 3: do have some concern about Tucker. It's something we talked about,
Speaker 3: like every week he's missing kicks. He's missing multiple kicks.
Speaker 3: That's quietly flowing under the radar because they're winning blowout
Speaker 3: and you know, they scored all touchdowns last week and
Speaker 3: scrimmage against the Browns a couple of weeks ago, it
Speaker 3: was all touchdown. It was all touchdowns, no.
Speaker 2: Field goals, no clutch field goals.
Speaker 3: I do worry if he has to sink like a
Speaker 3: forty eight yard or with thirty seconds left, is that
Speaker 3: going to go you know, wide left or something that
Speaker 3: That is in the back of my head. But I
Speaker 3: just think Baltimore is the better team here. I am
Speaker 3: going to go with Baltimore mightus the point and a half.
Speaker 1: By the way, it's a point, not a point A
Speaker 1: point here we go. I messed that up. I'm with you.
Speaker 1: Aimore's yeah, Baltimore is my pick as well. I've had
Speaker 1: them as number one for maybe six seven weeks. Now
Speaker 1: I think the best team in football. I've got Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson MVP. None of this means I hate the Bills
Speaker 1: or Josh Allen. I know Bills fans think I do.
Speaker 1: I think Baltimore is just the best team in football.
Speaker 1: I think they're the most balanced team in football. I
Speaker 1: think this is their year where they win it all,
Speaker 1: and I think it starts with this one. And I
Speaker 1: think you know people are gonna still give Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: a stigma. Oh he can't win the big playups. Well,
Speaker 1: you know that's the case until he does. And I
Speaker 1: think this is the time he does. And Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: is the ultimate counterpart against Buffalo. Buffalo is for most.
Speaker 2: Of the year.
Speaker 1: And I know they're getting guys back here that they
Speaker 1: didn't have the first time they played when Baltimore crushed them.
Speaker 1: But generally speaking, this year, Buffalo has been a team
Speaker 1: that has bent a lot and not broken. I think
Speaker 1: they get broken here and I think Baltimore wins it.
Speaker 1: Minus went by the way, I guess minus two and
Speaker 1: a half on guessing lines. You know, the night before
Speaker 1: when these came out and even into Monday morning, the
Speaker 1: Bills were still favored. I couldn't believe it. It has
Speaker 1: come not completely my way, but most of the way,
Speaker 1: or at least halfway to me. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: it's more. I think it's great. Baltimore's better team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, go ahead, go ahead.
Speaker 4: I think two. Yeah, I think two and a half
Speaker 4: is going to be your open. If it's a case
Speaker 4: next week, that seems right to me. So you're on
Speaker 4: the right train.
Speaker 1: I need to ask in favor of Baltimore, Okay, just making.
Speaker 4: Sure Baltimore minus two and a half at Casey next
Speaker 4: week is my fair at least I would be surprised
Speaker 4: if and if they if they beat Buffalo in the spot,
Speaker 4: they'll get upgraded again. So yeah, two and a half,
Speaker 4: maybe even three, maybe closes three. The other question is
Speaker 4: what what's your degree of confidence right now in Lamar
Speaker 4: Jackson m VP.
Speaker 1: Oh, that it actually manifests better than fifty percent. I'm
Speaker 1: going to go sixty percent. I feel confident you.
Speaker 4: I think actually, I think it's I think it's done.
Speaker 4: Really the ap all pro vote was was really was
Speaker 4: really surprising. It's just totally there's going to be there's
Speaker 4: going to be a lot of ballots that are Lamar
Speaker 4: Burrow Hellen, and there's going to be If there's five
Speaker 4: of those, then it's going to go Lamar.
Speaker 2: Killy.
Speaker 5: Are you concerned about the fact that the Ravens defense,
Speaker 5: which was crappy early in the years, has like kind
Speaker 5: of looked They've looked better than they really are playing
Speaker 5: these five games, their last five games, Giants, Steelers, Houston,
Speaker 5: Cleveland Steelers, none of those teams with an NFL offense,
Speaker 5: and that's made their defense look better than it actually is,
Speaker 5: and maybe their defense is still the crapola that we
Speaker 5: saw early in the year.
Speaker 2: Are you concerned about that?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's certainly competition matters, for sure, but
Speaker 1: I think in the end, who's more likely to stop who?
Speaker 1: I mean, this could be one of these games where
Speaker 1: you just got to hold Serve a couple times, or
Speaker 1: you've got to break Serve a couple times. I'm way
Speaker 1: more confident in Baltimore being able to do that against
Speaker 1: Buffalo than I am Buffalo being able to do that
Speaker 1: against Baltimore better.
Speaker 4: I would also point out that, you know, what you're
Speaker 4: pointing to lately is a reflection of they haven't played
Speaker 4: any good quarterbacks and that their pass defense looked better.
Speaker 4: The run defense for the Baltimore Ravens has been all
Speaker 4: the worldly, elite all year, right, And if you look
Speaker 4: at what Buffalo is doing to generate success, it's they're
Speaker 4: staying on schedule. Their running attack is super is really
Speaker 4: really helping the offense broadly. And if that if you
Speaker 4: take that away and they have to just beat you know,
Speaker 4: Josh Allen, you know he can beat you through the air,
Speaker 4: but these weapons really that scary. This the passing game
Speaker 4: for the Bills really that scary, not not not in
Speaker 4: my opinion. So it was I think that matchup comes
Speaker 4: down to Ravens run d versus Buffalo run offense.
Speaker 1: When Curtis Samuel scored for Buffalo, who's doing that game?
Speaker 1: I can't remember what they were just gushing over Curtis Samuel.
Speaker 1: I'm like, really, is that what we're doing now? Or
Speaker 1: like I think it is. Samuel is awesome. That was
Speaker 1: the Romo game.
Speaker 5: Made the catch of the century in the back of
Speaker 5: the end zone for the Bills. That guy I don't
Speaker 5: even know how he caught it and kept his knee
Speaker 5: and bounds and everything.
Speaker 1: That was that was incredible. All right, Teaser of the
Speaker 1: week is at current at current lines, these are the
Speaker 1: week Drew would be.
Speaker 4: It's going to be Detroit Buffalo for me. I'm gonna
Speaker 4: tickle three and a half here with the Lino's and
Speaker 4: I'm going to take Buffalo out to eight. I'm sorry,
Speaker 4: buffal out to seven. The terrible, terrible teaser, terrible teaser.
Speaker 1: Well, we only have a week and choose from here.
Speaker 4: Terrible, terrible, terrible.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go also with Detroit because I think it's
Speaker 2: over for Kill's Washington boys. He even agrees it sounds
Speaker 2: like uh, and I'll take the Eagles down to zero.
Speaker 1: I do think this. I don't think they get blown out.
Speaker 1: I think they put up a good performance and they
Speaker 1: lose by a touchdown.
Speaker 3: Will I'll go Chiefs Bills just because that one, that one,
Speaker 3: one and a half, whatever it is with the Bills
Speaker 3: is enticing.
Speaker 2: I do think it'll be a close game.
Speaker 3: So Chiefs Bills again, not a ton of options.
Speaker 1: I'm taking the two on what am I doing? I'm
Speaker 1: doing the Chiefs and the Lions, Chiefs, Lion.
Speaker 4: I got to advocate if you're going to play a
Speaker 4: Chiefs Lions teaser. I think the mat says, you know,
Speaker 4: seven point teaser, it's more expensive, but but you get
Speaker 4: you get the you get them, you get it back.
Speaker 1: But we are we are beholden to the megapod constitution,
Speaker 1: and I even really think we should be asked to
Speaker 1: pick a teaser when there's four games, to be fair.
Speaker 1: That's true, that's true. Well this will be last week.
Speaker 2: So what do you have? Chiefs minus two and a half?
Speaker 1: And what all right, Chiefs minus two and a half,
Speaker 1: and then what lions? What is it three and a half?
Speaker 1: Now would be a lion and a half? Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, the final two questions of this in each
Speaker 1: and every megapot, this is actually a good one for
Speaker 1: this week, all right, of the big favorites, this is
Speaker 1: perfect for this week. So just throw out Baltimore Buffalo
Speaker 1: take the other three game, Chiefs against the Texans, Lions
Speaker 1: against the Commodores, and the Eagles against the Rams. Who
Speaker 1: is the most likely to lose? Out right?
Speaker 4: I think it's the Chiefs, but I have a very
Speaker 4: weak opinion of that.
Speaker 1: You've backtracked a little on that this week, haven't you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, everybody and everybody in my circles like, don't be
Speaker 4: an idiot, Mahmes, He's gonna make these guys. CJ. Strowd
Speaker 4: and this Sexons offense is terrible, and like I am,
Speaker 4: you know why I'm in this spot where I'm backing
Speaker 4: the Texans in the playoffs and I'm still kind of
Speaker 4: stuck on my preseason rating for this team was this
Speaker 4: is going to be like a viable AFC championship team,
Speaker 4: Like I thought, you know, just looking at the talent
Speaker 4: on this team, I was like, these guys are going
Speaker 4: to be good.
Speaker 2: CJ.
Speaker 4: Stroud and you're two stepping forward ball And they've lost Digs,
Speaker 4: they lost Tank Dell, but they still have a pretty
Speaker 4: deep wide receiving corps beyond Nico Collins to the point
Speaker 4: where they just cut Deontay Johnson. So you know, I think,
Speaker 4: I think, I'm I'm I'm a little stuck on my
Speaker 4: preseason prior for them as being being for real and.
Speaker 2: The data line the problem.
Speaker 4: The thing that was weird, Like last year their offensive
Speaker 4: line was awful and they were all hurt all year
Speaker 4: long and it didn't really matter. Like CJ. Stroud was
Speaker 4: kind of protection agnostic and for some reason this year
Speaker 4: he's taken a step back. I don't know if they're
Speaker 4: asking him to do different stuff or what, But I
Speaker 4: also think a lot of the kind of modification of CJ.
Speaker 4: Stroud at the end of last year was really just
Speaker 4: the emergence of Nico Collins as a wide receiver, one
Speaker 4: top five guy in the NFL, and his absence through
Speaker 4: the middle of the season, and when he came back,
Speaker 4: he wasn't as explosive and now he looks now he
Speaker 4: looks explosive to me. So I'm pitting a lot of hope,
Speaker 4: hopes and prayers on mister Nico Collins being a difference maker.
Speaker 3: The Vikings, by the way, beat the Texans thirty four
Speaker 3: to seven when the Texans were healthy, which will look
Speaker 3: very good on a banner up and up.
Speaker 1: Todd most likely to lose out right of those three
Speaker 1: big favorites.
Speaker 2: Is I think the Vikings. The Vikings are definitely going
Speaker 2: down this week. I don't know about what you guys think.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pick the Vikings and the Indiana Fever.
Speaker 5: Uh No, I'm going to say the biggest team to
Speaker 5: lose is going to be Yeah, I'm gonna go with
Speaker 5: the I just don't see it. I mean, I guess
Speaker 5: I'll pick the Texans, but I don't see it. I
Speaker 5: think that I think the team total for Houston is
Speaker 5: going to be under Actually, I don't think they're going
Speaker 5: to score that. If they're going to win this game,
Speaker 5: they're gonna have to win a real ugly one.
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 3: Really, Sorry, you said Eagles counts as one. Yes, yeah,
Speaker 3: I'll go with the Eagles. Pass rush a quarterback basically,
Speaker 3: have a Hall of Fame quarterback, a Hall of Fame coach,
Speaker 3: and you got a good pass rush, you got.
Speaker 1: A shot Eagles for all the reasons will state Eagles
Speaker 1: most likely to lose out And then you have to
Speaker 1: bet a side in three of these, but you get
Speaker 1: one game you want no part of what Drew is
Speaker 1: the which of these four is the one you would
Speaker 1: least like to bet on the.
Speaker 4: Side the it's the It's the Ravens Bills. But it's
Speaker 4: because I have a lot of interest in the Ravens
Speaker 4: futures wise, and so I'm not trying to double down
Speaker 4: at an expensive price right now. The I, like I
Speaker 4: said like at the top, this to me is the
Speaker 4: de facto Super Bowl. If they beat the Bills on
Speaker 4: the road, in this spot. I think the Ravens, I
Speaker 4: think they're home.
Speaker 1: Dotty.
Speaker 2: I don't want that Bills game. I don't, I don't,
Speaker 2: I don't. I have no idea who's going to win
Speaker 2: that game.
Speaker 3: Well, I think the Lions probably roll, but I'd be
Speaker 3: very concerned about Jaden Daniels backdoor cover. So, I mean
Speaker 3: nine and a half is a lot. Defense isn't good
Speaker 3: for Detroit, So you better have some margin if you're
Speaker 3: Detroit going into that final drive.
Speaker 1: If that's the scenario, will you and me are sharing
Speaker 1: the same brain? I I really think that people think,
Speaker 1: you know, people who think it's going to be just
Speaker 1: a runout. I'm not one hundred percenture.
Speaker 4: Really, I get teeny tiny comment on that game. If
Speaker 4: you're considering taking plus nine and a half points with
Speaker 4: the Commanders, can I just implore you to split steak
Speaker 4: and take half on money line as well, because what
Speaker 4: do you know about these two teams? They're both going
Speaker 4: to lean into the volatility of the fourth down.
Speaker 2: Go for it.
Speaker 4: This is going to be a high This is going
Speaker 4: to be a big swing win probably to game, whether
Speaker 4: you're converting your fourth downs or you're not. And if
Speaker 4: the Lion of Lions missed a couple and the Commanders
Speaker 4: get a couple like you're not covered nine and a half,
Speaker 4: you're winning. And I think ultimately that I think that
Speaker 4: there's probably no better example of this that we've had
Speaker 4: all year. I don't think there's two coaches that I
Speaker 4: would say are more inclined to lean into aggressive, you know,
Speaker 4: fourth down decision making. So this is gonna be a
Speaker 4: cool game.
Speaker 1: Will's got to run, so we got to run. Will's
Speaker 1: got other things to do. It's very busy man. Thank
Speaker 1: you Drew for everything. Tennis and football both appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Good Luck, Todd wishnev again t wish Will Hill at
Speaker 1: not the Will Hill to E's on the V and
Speaker 1: Drew Dinsig at Whale underscore Capper. I'm at beating the book.
Speaker 1: Of course, you might be watching it through that. That's
Speaker 1: why I say, of course, thanks for watching. Good luck
Speaker 1: with all your bets in the divisional round of the
Speaker 1: National Football League player, thanks for watching.