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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: All Billie, whose guys are good.

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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to a very special episode of

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Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. This is your twenty twenty two

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Speaker 1: Stanley Cup playoff preview. I'm Michael E. Buff joining me

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Speaker 1: is my Action colleague Nicholas Martin and Pete Jensen is

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Speaker 1: joining us today from NHL dot Com. And gentlemen, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna start off with a bang right away, give the

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Speaker 1: folks a little bit of an action. We'll take away

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Speaker 1: here our favorite Stanley Cup future that's still available as

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Speaker 1: we look forward to the game once on Monday night. Nick,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna start with you, what teams on the board

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Speaker 1: right now? Would you be interested in betting if you're

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Speaker 1: going into this tournament without a future in your pocket?

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Speaker 3: So if I was going in with nothing, I would

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Speaker 3: still have the abs at plus three seven five on

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Speaker 3: my list that I would play. I just think they're

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Speaker 3: the best team in hockey by a decent margin. They

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Speaker 3: have a pretty good path out of the West compared

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Speaker 3: to all the elite teams in the East, So I

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Speaker 3: just think with how strong they are, they're still going

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Speaker 3: to win the Cup more at a high enough clip

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Speaker 3: that we have some value plus three seventy five. I

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Speaker 3: know it's not a lot of fun to make the

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Speaker 3: square takes in hockey, but I definitely think we have

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Speaker 3: a good one here with how dominant dis Avalanche group is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I could see the path here. I thought if

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Speaker 1: Colorado had caught Dallas in the first round it would

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Speaker 1: be a little bit tricky spot. But with Nashville and

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Speaker 1: David Riddick instead in round one, it does give Colorado

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Speaker 1: probably the easiest round one matchup in the West. I

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Speaker 1: like the Bruins. I've been talking about the Bruins a

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Speaker 1: bunch since February and they haven't really moved since that time.

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Speaker 1: They were twenty two to one. You can find them

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Speaker 1: at twenty to one at most books right now. Boston

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Speaker 1: leads the NHL this season once again in expectacles against

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Speaker 1: some high danger chances prevented. So it's a team that

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Speaker 1: their goaltending will be called into question. Lenas al Mark

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Speaker 1: and Jeremy Swayman as a tandem will be playing their

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Speaker 1: first playoffs ever. I mean, Swaming got a cup of

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Speaker 1: coffee last year. But all Mark's been with the Sabers

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Speaker 1: first for so long, so we hasn't made the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: it will be all Mark his net to lose to start,

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Speaker 1: But the defense is just such a good job at making

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Speaker 1: life easy in front of those guys that I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's a huge deal. And if Boston gets through

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Speaker 1: that round one matchup, then they'll play Pittsburgh or New

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Speaker 1: York rather than Toronto or you know, or it's going

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Speaker 1: to be Well rather than Florida in round two getting

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Speaker 1: through the Toronto series, So their path is open. They

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Speaker 1: just got to get through that significant hurdle of Carolina. Nick,

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Speaker 1: I know you're interested too in Boston, a team that

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Speaker 1: is near and dear to you as well.

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Speaker 3: For sure, I definitely think they should be right there

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Speaker 3: with the other with the Carolinas and some of those

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Speaker 3: other Eastern teams. They've been so good in twenty twenty two. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I just and I think head to head, that top

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Speaker 3: line is going to win so many of the matchups,

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Speaker 3: which is huge. Like I think even when we look

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Speaker 3: to this Carolina series, I think Bergeron's still going to

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Speaker 3: get the best of the Alaho matchup. And I just

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Speaker 3: think especially if the power play can get clicking a

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Speaker 3: little bit, which we've seen historically, from this unit. So

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Speaker 3: I definitely think there's a lot of upside with the Bruins.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and they're coming into the playoffs I think six

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Speaker 1: and six in the last twelve, so I think that

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Speaker 1: is kind of why this number is still out there,

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Speaker 1: even though their underlying metrics have been really good in

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Speaker 1: that stretch, Like you're getting a team that is flying

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Speaker 1: under the radar a little bit and ended up, you know,

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Speaker 1: just so happened to end up in probably the best.

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Speaker 3: High spot was a little not to try to drum

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Speaker 3: up this narrative, it might not be a thing, but

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Speaker 3: I was a little suspicious of the resting everyone in

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Speaker 3: the spot where they could have still theoretically moved up

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Speaker 3: the standings, and they sat everyone and played a pretty

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Speaker 3: terrible game. So I don't know it was I'm not

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Speaker 3: trying to say maybe they wanted this, but it didn't

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Speaker 3: seem like they're really trying to push and get that

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Speaker 3: third spot in the final game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's I think if you look at

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Speaker 1: all the playoffs, you know, the seedings, not including you know,

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Speaker 1: Colorado and Florida finishing a top of the division, but

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Speaker 1: the Rangers and the Bruins, I think the Metro two

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Speaker 1: and the wild Card one ended up being the probably

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Speaker 1: the best places you wanted to be. Boston's there twenty

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Speaker 1: to one like them. All Right, let's bring in Pete here.

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Speaker 1: Anybody you think is a potential sleeper that can upset

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Speaker 1: the Apple cart here in the sixteen team tournament.

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Speaker 4: Pete, Well, Mike, we were talking about it right off

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Speaker 4: the get go when we saw the matchups and we

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Speaker 4: saw that Boston would go to the other side of

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Speaker 4: the bracket. I mean, that makes them an obvious choice

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Speaker 4: in the East, and we know their playoff pedigree through

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Speaker 4: the years. One team that I'm more excited about than

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Speaker 4: ever before for the Stanley Cup playoffs is the Minnesota Wild.

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Speaker 4: I feel like if the Colorado Avalanche slip up against anybody,

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Speaker 4: it would probably be in the Western Conference. The Minnesota Wild.

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Speaker 4: They roll three strong lines. If Flurry has a hiccup,

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Speaker 4: they'll go to Talbot. He's been just as good since

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Speaker 4: the Flurry trade.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I love those kind of grinder type guys like Eric

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Speaker 4: Sinek and you know Greenway if he's healthy, those type

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Speaker 4: of guys. The second line with Fiala and Matt Boldy

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Speaker 4: has been as good as any line in the entire league.

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Speaker 1: Over the final month of the season.

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Speaker 4: So and Boldie, not many people realize led all rookies

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Speaker 4: in points per game this year, So what's not to

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Speaker 4: like about Minnesota. It would be a daunting matchup in

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Speaker 4: round two, but it's one that I'm you know, in

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Speaker 4: our picks on NHL dot Com, I'm picking them to

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Speaker 4: get past their rival, the Blues in the first round,

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Speaker 4: and then second round could be anyone's guests, and you know,

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Speaker 4: like you guys were saying earlier, like I picked the

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Speaker 4: Avs to win the Cup at the beginning of the season,

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Speaker 4: so like I kind of always trace back to that.

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Speaker 4: But if you're coming in with a clean slate, the

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Speaker 4: Wild I think are a great team to look at

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Speaker 4: here as a potential upset in the second round if

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Speaker 4: that matchup happens.

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Speaker 1: I think Minnesota really rounded into good defensive form as

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Speaker 1: well down the stretch too. They're right up there with

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Speaker 1: Boston in terms of preventing scoring chances. I do think

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Speaker 1: that that Saint Louis matchup is real tricky. I like

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Speaker 1: the Blues quite a bit in that perspective, but we'll

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Speaker 1: get there, all right. So that's it. We like the Bruins.

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Speaker 1: We like to as like the wild If you're looking

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Speaker 1: to shop or looking for a team to root four

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Speaker 1: off the jump, if you don't have one, or if

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Speaker 1: maybe if you do, when you want to add to

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Speaker 1: your portfolio, those are our three picks. Now, let's get

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Speaker 1: into series by series. We'll start in the metro, Nick,

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Speaker 1: were you surprised when the odds came out for Rangers?

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Speaker 1: The series odds came out for Rangers and Penguins. I

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Speaker 1: think most people would have assumed the Rangers would have

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Speaker 1: opened as a I want to say considerable favorite, but

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Speaker 1: a favorite minus one thirty ish I think was probably

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Speaker 1: what most people had in their mind. They open up

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Speaker 1: as an underdog, even money that has shortened a little bit.

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Speaker 1: There now a pick them on the series money line

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Speaker 1: minus one ten either way between New York and Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: What do you see here?

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Speaker 3: I was, yeah, I definitely fully agree. I was pretty

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Speaker 3: surprised to see them open as an underdog. I like

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Speaker 3: the Rangers. I love them at the original price and

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Speaker 3: pick them price. I still think there's value. I think

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Speaker 3: they've just been playing so much better the last two months,

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Speaker 3: where they're not just leaning on Schisterkin but with that said,

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Speaker 3: Sisterkin's going to be such a massive edge compared to

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Speaker 3: the Smith that I think there's some value there. And

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Speaker 3: then I just think it's really likely we could see

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Speaker 3: this playing out kind of close to the way the

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Speaker 3: Penns series with the Islanders played out last year, and

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Speaker 3: I yeah, so for a lot of the same reasons,

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Speaker 3: I think it could just be something like Rainders and six,

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Speaker 3: where Shasterkin just offers a big edge and the gameplay

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Speaker 3: runs maybe a little closer than I think people are expecting.

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Speaker 1: I think one thing to keep in mind here with

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Speaker 1: which is funny less You're going into that series with

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Speaker 1: the Islanders Penguins fans and Penguins backers who were up

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Speaker 1: in arms and really upset because Casey the Smith got

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Speaker 1: hurt and Tristan Jarry was going to have to start,

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Speaker 1: And now this year it's completely flipped where Tristan Jarry

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Speaker 1: got hurt late in the year and the Smith has

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Speaker 1: to come in. But de Smith last twelve games nine

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Speaker 1: to twenty five, say percentage plus four point two two

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Speaker 1: goals saved above expected, so he's been better and I

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Speaker 1: do think there is a path to six. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of paths to success with either team obviously in

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Speaker 1: a coin flip, but with Osby's two way dominance, he

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Speaker 1: should be able to win some matchups against one of

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Speaker 1: the Rangers' top lines. And if you can take one

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Speaker 1: of those lines out, then you're you're talking about a

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Speaker 1: battle between the bottom six group. And I do think

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Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh, especially with Andrew copying back, banged up. Panaren

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Speaker 1: was banged up going in. You don't know where these

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Speaker 1: guys are. I think Adams Fox is dealing with something

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Speaker 1: as well. I think that there was an argument to

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Speaker 1: be made that I don't think people were considering that

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is kind of deserving of being around this price.

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Speaker 1: That said, I don't think at these numbers I would

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Speaker 1: bet anything. I think if they flipped, if Pittsburgh was

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Speaker 1: like plus one ten, then I would go into it.

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Speaker 1: But nothing for me here, And I think that this

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Speaker 1: series did catch people off cart just when it opened. Pete,

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Speaker 1: how do you think Rangers Penguins will shake out? Are

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Speaker 1: you with Nick here thinking that Shusturkin will be the difference.

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Speaker 4: It's tough because I'm really I can warm up to

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Speaker 4: both of these teams. I think they're both happy that

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Speaker 4: they don't have to play a team like the Islanders

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Speaker 4: in the first round, you know, with how things have

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Speaker 4: evolved for Pittsburgh, losing two of their past three first

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Speaker 4: round exits against New York and then on the other side, like,

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Speaker 4: I think there's a real question about how much the

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Speaker 4: Rangers rely on Schas Durkin and the shift in style

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Speaker 4: of play. We know that scoring's up in the league

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Speaker 4: across the board this year, but things usually shift come

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Speaker 4: playoff time, right, and it's a different style. And I

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Speaker 4: think we've seen the Rangers get humbled a little bit

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Speaker 4: last year and even this year they haven't been you know,

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Speaker 4: they've been quick to bounce back, but they've had some

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Speaker 4: some ugly losses in the second half, just if you

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Speaker 4: want to pinpoint a few. So yeah, I mean, I

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Speaker 4: have the Rangers. I think it's going to be close.

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, the play of like some of

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Speaker 4: the trade deadline acquisitions are going to be huge on

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Speaker 4: both sides, whether it's Ricard Raquel on Malkins line or

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Speaker 4: Andrew Kopp and Frank Vitrono playing in the top six

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Speaker 4: for the Rangers. So overall, I think with the play

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Speaker 4: of the two teams, down the stretch of the the season,

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Speaker 4: the Rangers have been a little stronger in my book,

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Speaker 4: and you know, this could be the last hurrah for

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Speaker 4: some of these Pittsburgh guys, right all the UFAs Malkin

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Speaker 4: let Tang, Brian Russ is cooled off after his hot start.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, kind of leaning towards the New York Rangers.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a path for the Rangers, especially if

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Speaker 4: Freddie Anderson is banged up, which it sounds like he

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Speaker 4: still is for Carolina, right, the Rangers have a pretty

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Speaker 4: high ceiling here. They could maybe get to the conference final.

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Speaker 1: I'm interested to see how the first few games of

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Speaker 1: the playoffs also shake out in terms of you said,

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Speaker 1: the scoring is up across the league, and also we

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Speaker 1: do tend to think that reps will call the game

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Speaker 1: a little tighter. And the Rangers are very reliant on

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Speaker 1: that power play, which was near the top of the

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Speaker 1: league all season long. And Pittsburgh when they are cooking,

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Speaker 1: they win from the back to the front, right. They

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Speaker 1: have a great defensive structured and they make life easy

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Speaker 1: in front of their goals as well, just like the Bruins,

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Speaker 1: that form waivered in the middle of the season, but

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Speaker 1: it started to tick back up as the Penguins went

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Speaker 1: down the stretch. So, like you guys said, you guys

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Speaker 1: leaning towards the Rangers, I just I don't have any

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Speaker 1: from a betting perspective, any play here. I will play

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Speaker 1: the game one odds are out as Rangers are minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five the Penguins plus one o five. I

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Speaker 1: think these games are essentially coin flips. If someone's gonna

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Speaker 1: plus money, I'll take Pittsburgh in Game one plus one

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Speaker 1: oh five. And with that, let's move on to the

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Speaker 1: other series in the metro, that's Carolina. I was always

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Speaker 1: surprised to here too. With the way this opened minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen as short short favorites against the Bruins minus

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Speaker 1: one of five, I thought they would flip. I thought

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Speaker 1: the Bruins would be a slight favorite, considering what Pete

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Speaker 1: was just talking about Freddie Anderson being out for Carolina.

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Speaker 1: They'll go with likely Anti Ronta or their rookie goalie

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Speaker 1: Peto or Kochekov in the series. You could see both,

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Speaker 1: but the same could be true of the Bruins with

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Speaker 1: Linus ol Mark and Jeremy Swayman. I made a case

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Speaker 1: for the Bruins off the jump. This is an incredible

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Speaker 1: defensive team and they got stronger defensively at the deadline

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Speaker 1: with Hampis lind Holm, him and Charlie McAvoy. Maybe the

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Speaker 1: best defense pairing in this kind of metro bracket now

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Speaker 1: in terms of two way play, right, Like, we know

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Speaker 1: that they can score, but defensively, boy, they're tough to

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Speaker 1: play against and that is huge against Carolina, a team

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Speaker 1: that the offense drives the bus right second in terms

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Speaker 1: of generating spectacles and high danger chances at five on five.

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Speaker 1: So we're getting strength versus strength here. I like Boston

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Speaker 1: on the series line. I like Boston. They're game one,

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Speaker 1: they're even money, and like I said, I like them

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Speaker 1: twenty to one in the Cup. I'm gonna be investing

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Speaker 1: in a bunch of different ways on the Bruins before

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Speaker 1: this tournament starts, so I'll be on the B's here, Nick,

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Speaker 1: what do you have?

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Speaker 3: I'm also going with the Bruins in this one. One

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Speaker 3: thing I like to note with Carolina, and I think

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Speaker 3: it's shown in some of their playoff runs. Obviously they

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Speaker 3: had the one to round three under Rod, but I

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Speaker 3: do think that their offensive analytics get boosted from the

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Speaker 3: types of chances that they're willing to settle for. So

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Speaker 3: they love to burn shots from everywhere, which like, as

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Speaker 3: we know, any shot tracks as something, but they don't

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Speaker 3: love to be overly creative. I think it comes a

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Speaker 3: lot from Road where he just really likes to preach like,

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Speaker 3: let's get every single possible puck on the net. If

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Speaker 3: the goalie set and you're in deep, still shoot, which

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Speaker 3: I think compared to a team like the Blues and

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Speaker 3: the Wild who lead the league in goals scored about expected,

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Speaker 3: there's a reason why Carolina always settle on this list

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Speaker 3: where they've been on it on the leaders for goals

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Speaker 3: below expected pretty much every season under Rod, And I

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Speaker 3: think that that's just it's something where I could see

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Speaker 3: the Bruins limiting them to exactly what they want and

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Speaker 3: just letting swing and make forty saves a game whatever,

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Speaker 3: probably a lower number against the Bruns, but you know

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Speaker 3: what I mean, where it's going to be they're getting

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Speaker 3: a lot of shots and then they aren't fully comprehending

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Speaker 3: why there aren't more goals. And I think this kind

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Speaker 3: of narrative showed out showed last season versus Tampa, where

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Speaker 3: the play was relatively close, and you could probably be

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Speaker 3: watching it as a Carolina fan complaining that it ended

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Speaker 3: in five games. But I just think the strength of

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Speaker 3: Tampa to still create the kinds of chances that are

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Speaker 3: always going to be goals showed through. And I think

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Speaker 3: we could see something like that in this Caroline in

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Speaker 3: a series where they can't quite generate the kinds of

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Speaker 3: chances that are actually going to lead to all offensive

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Speaker 3: or lead the goals.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting. I think Carolina excels at doing two things

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Speaker 1: right there. They're good off the fore check, and they're

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Speaker 1: great at creating chaos in front of the net by

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Speaker 1: and they just pump pucks, you know, towards the goalie

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Speaker 1: from everywhere, and then they try to just get as

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Speaker 1: many bodies in and around the blue paint as possible.

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Speaker 1: But against the Bruins, who, like you said, that kind

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Speaker 1: of plays into their strength, right, they'll absorb that that

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Speaker 1: pressure and then they'll spring a counter and nobody's better

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Speaker 1: at you know, these on man rush is going the

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Speaker 1: other way at the end of an offensive ship for

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Speaker 1: the opposing team than the Bruins are with with Paster,

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Speaker 1: not Marshan versieron you know, Jake Debruscus is playing really

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Speaker 1: well right now too, and I just think, you know,

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Speaker 1: you're looking at the odds here. It is essentially saying

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Speaker 1: it's it's a coin flip. Is as close to a

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Speaker 1: coin flip as you can get without making it a

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Speaker 1: pick them, basically, and I'll take the Bruins to win

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Speaker 1: along the Margins in what should be once again another

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Speaker 1: close series in the East. All right, Pete, let's move

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Speaker 1: to you. We talked about the Bruins off the jump.

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Speaker 1: Are you making it three for three and picking the

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Speaker 1: Bruins here over the Canes.

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Speaker 4: I want to just mention that there is some real

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Speaker 4: appeal even with the Freddie Anderson injury, and that's why

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Speaker 4: I'm ultimately taking the Bruins in mypicks on NHL dot Com.

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Speaker 4: But I just wanted to mention when I dug a

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Speaker 4: little deeper. Obviously, the Carolina Hurricanes have dominated the Bruins

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Speaker 4: this season, outscored them sixteen to one and swept the

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Speaker 4: season series three to none. And then when you look

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Speaker 4: at historically, the Bruins have beaten them twice in the

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Speaker 4: past four years in the playoffs, so you could certainly

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Speaker 4: say maybe this is the best Hurricanes team that the

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Speaker 4: Bruins have faced.

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Speaker 1: No two.

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Speaker 4: Carask anymore for Boston with his playoff form from years past.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, it's kind of like Carolinas do in a way.

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Speaker 4: But the one tipping point for me in why I

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Speaker 4: like Boston is that Boston has more scoring depth than

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Speaker 4: they have maybe dating back to the twenty eleven Cup

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Speaker 4: final run when they won the whole thing. I mean,

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Speaker 4: they have Debrusk playing really well down the stretch sixteen

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Speaker 4: points in his final eighteen games, scored twenty five goals

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Speaker 4: this year, playing with Marshan and bergeron and then that

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Speaker 4: second line with Taylor Hall, Posternach and Eric Howl. I

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Speaker 4: think Eric hal is like a big X factor for

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Speaker 4: the Bruins because if he can play well and keep

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Speaker 4: Posternach on his line and spread out the scoring, the

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Speaker 4: Bruins are just a much more dangerous team, especially considering

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Speaker 4: they're in that other side of the bracket.

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Speaker 3: One note I would make, I don't want to come

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Speaker 3: up like I'm entirely low on Carolina, Like I respect

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Speaker 3: them as a Cup contender, and I do think they

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Speaker 3: insulated Freddie Anderson way more effectively than I think a

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Speaker 3: lot of people are crediting when they talk about that loss.

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Speaker 3: So I totally I still view this as just two

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Speaker 3: really really sharp teams. But I just getting a plus

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Speaker 3: number of the Bruins like them a little more. But

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Speaker 3: I think to see Ranta still able to post really

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Speaker 3: strong numbers is definitely very possible as well, just with

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Speaker 3: how a Wee their defensive player has been.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the goaltending in a weird way has

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Speaker 1: just become a wash because Omark is in great form too,

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Speaker 1: out of nowhere nine thirty four save percentage with a

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Speaker 1: plus five point eighty two goals saved above expected in

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Speaker 1: his last fourteen and we saw if they have to

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Speaker 1: go to swaymen if if Omark does stumble, He's shown

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Speaker 1: pretty well. For a little while. There was probably number

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Speaker 1: three in terms of Rookie of the Year contenders. As

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Speaker 1: we were kind of hitting around Valentine's Day, he did

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Speaker 1: start to wear down a little bit, but he's he's

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Speaker 1: someone who has shown very well his in his limited

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Speaker 1: NHL sample size. So the two goaltending situations are funny

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Speaker 1: because they do kind of mirror each other well in

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Speaker 1: a weird way in terms of, you know, I'm proving

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Speaker 1: goalie shore, but goalies who have shown well down the stretch.

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Speaker 1: Plus they're playing behind Nick. Like you said, Carolina is

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Speaker 1: great defensively in around their own net, and Boston has

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Speaker 1: been one of the best defensive teams for you know,

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Speaker 1: basically a decade now. So no signs of showing up

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Speaker 1: slowing up from the Bruins here. But I think, you

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Speaker 1: know we were talking about at these prices, it looks

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Speaker 1: like Boston for us. Let's go over to the Atlantic now,

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Speaker 1: we'll start with the closer of the two series. In

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Speaker 1: the Atlantic bracket. Toronto minus one twenty. They have home

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Speaker 1: its advantage over the two time defending Cup champion Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay Lightning. They're even money on the serious money line.

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Speaker 1: Game one reflects the same as the series minus one

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Speaker 1: twenty for Toronto at home Tampa plus one hundred. I

390
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Speaker 1: think that will probably tick up towards one oh five,

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Speaker 1: one ten by the time the puck drops. It really

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Speaker 1: comes down to the Leafs don't really have a chance

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Speaker 1: in the series of if Jack Campbell doesn't play the

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Speaker 1: way we've seen him the last two weeks and then

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Speaker 1: the first three months of the season, If he plays

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Speaker 1: like the Jack Campbell we saw between December first and

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Speaker 1: March first. The Leaves are in a lot of trouble here,

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Speaker 1: but I do think it's more likely we'll see the

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Speaker 1: Campbell that you know has been playing for the past

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Not dominant by any stretch of it,

401
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 1: but competent. And when you play average goaltending behind this

402
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Speaker 1: Toronto Maple Leafs team, you do give them more than

403
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Speaker 1: a fifty percent chances because they can score at will.

404
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Speaker 1: Whether that offense translates into playoff hockeys is a question

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Speaker 1: that's been asked about this team a lot, and I

406
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Speaker 1: think when people ask that question, they just assume it's

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Speaker 1: you know, the playoffs are just a different environment, but

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Speaker 1: most of the time you're playing against The reason that

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Speaker 1: scoring goes down in the playoffs is because you play

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Speaker 1: against good teams every night. You're not playing against teams

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Speaker 1: who are finishing twenty eighth in the league. And then

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Speaker 1: the next time you play a good team, and then

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Speaker 1: the next time you play the team that finishes twenty second.

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Speaker 1: You're playing the Tampa Bay Lightning. Every night you're gonna

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Speaker 1: seeing Victor Henman on Austin Matthews. So that's why I

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Speaker 1: think that Tampa Bay A plus money is appealing to me.

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Speaker 1: I think this is once again you're talking about a

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Speaker 1: fifty to fifty matchup, even with Toronto having homeless advantage,

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Speaker 1: because I think Tampa Bay plays a style of game

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Speaker 1: that can give them many different avenues to beating the least,

421
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Speaker 1: whereas Toronto needs this series to basically go one of

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Speaker 1: one or two ways for them to have a chance.

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Speaker 1: Nick throughout the season, you've been more bullish on Toronto

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Speaker 1: than I have, and it's definitely paid off in the

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Speaker 1: regular season. Do you think this number is too short

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Speaker 1: on Toronto?

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Speaker 3: No, I definitely wouldn't. Are you too short for me?

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Speaker 3: It's just a no play. I can really see this

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Speaker 3: one going either way. There's obviously a lot of arguments

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Speaker 3: as to why the Lightning should best them. Again, I yeah,

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Speaker 3: for me, it's just it's easy to look at it

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Speaker 3: and kind of see both sides.

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Speaker 1: I think. I think it's also an interesting one for

434
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 1: the team that loses Game one, especially if it's a

435
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 1: close one, to maybe buy back in on them in

436
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 1: a series price because you'll see that you'll see the

437
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: number balloon obviously in a best of seven. Because this

438
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: is another one that I think you know, six or

439
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: seven games is very likely here, Pete, this should be

440
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,199
Speaker 1: a really good one, a really tight one. Do you

441
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 1: think Toronto has enough to get through here?

442
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 4: I mean I lean with Tampa just because I think

443
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 4: that with the Big five healthy, like, who's really gonna

444
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 4: beat that team four out of seven times? It doesn't

445
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 4: matter if it's the Avalanche, It doesn't matter if it's

446
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 4: I mean, the Avalanche could do it. That's the one

447
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 4: team I think could do it. Florida maybe could do it,

448
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 4: But Toronto, I feel like, is more flawed than those

449
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 4: two other teams. I mentioned. It helps that they have

450
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 4: home ice a little bit, but then again, if you

451
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 4: lose one of the first two at home, it doesn't

452
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 4: even matter anymore. Like Tampa Bay has the upper hand again.

453
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 4: So Tampa Bay's task is to go in and win

454
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 4: one in Toronto. They're more than capable of doing that.

455
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 4: Especially with Tampa I look at them all season long,

456
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 4: appeared to be in a little cruise control mode. They've

457
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 4: played a lot of hockey. They won the past two Cups,

458
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 4: I mean the past week or so. The way Stamkos

459
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 4: is playing, the way everybody's playing on that team, including

460
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 4: the secondary guys big games from kill Lorn. You see,

461
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 4: like even we talk about how they don't have as

462
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 4: much depth as the past two years, they still got

463
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 4: forty points from Corey Perry. They still got career years

464
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 4: from kill Lorn and Headman and Stamkos over one hundred points.

465
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 4: I mean, we've never seen that level of play from

466
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 4: stamp Coast before. So long story short, I still think

467
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 4: the Lightning or the team to beat until I see otherwise.

468
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 4: And the narrative of Toronto, Oh, this is going to

469
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,719
Speaker 4: be the year they're going to break through. They have

470
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 4: to actually step up and show us that they're capable

471
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 4: of doing that, because, like you said, they're kind of

472
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 4: like they're not one dimensional. But they can't have another

473
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 4: postseason where Austin Matthews only scores one goal or Mitch

474
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 4: Marner is quiet, right. They need these guys to finally

475
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 4: replicate what they did in the regular season. And I'm

476
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,919
Speaker 4: just I'm not convinced. I'm not convinced quite yet, but

477
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 4: they're certainly capable of doing it. They earned home ice,

478
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 4: and you know, I personally hope this series goes deep

479
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 4: because it's it probably has the most drama of any

480
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 4: of the series in the entire postseason right now.

481
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 1: The Michael Bunting situation is also worth monitoring, even if

482
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: he does play Game one. The way Sheldon Keith talked

483
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 1: about his injury right off the jump makes you think

484
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,959
Speaker 1: he won't be close to one hundred percent. He's been

485
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,119
Speaker 1: a huge part of that that top line with Marner

486
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: and Matthews. Uh And, like you were saying, Pete, it's it.

487
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 1: People were saying last year and the year before, the

488
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 1: Leafs don't have the secondary scoring to bail them out

489
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 1: of a series if Marner and Matthews some show up.

490
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 1: But the truth is they do. It's like it, but

491
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,959
Speaker 1: they need Matthews and Marner Like, like, they do have

492
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: plenty of secondary scoring. They have William Nielander and John

493
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 1: Tavars behind those guys, like they can definitely get performances

494
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: from them, but they it's just the way that this

495
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 1: team is, like they need Marner and Matthews to perform

496
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 1: at such an elite level that when they're playing against

497
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: someone like Victor Hedman or Ryan McDonough every shift, it's

498
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 1: it's gonna be harder for them to do it. So

499
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 1: I think that's part of the problem here. Whereas Tampa

500
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 1: sure like you can if you shut down you know,

501
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: you know, you could see March your Dono or TJ.

502
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 1: Brody have a good sceries against you know, Steven Stamkos

503
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 1: or Nikita Kutra. But that third line for Tampa right

504
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 1: now looks like it will be the one that should

505
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: win in terms of the bottom six battle here. So

506
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: I just think you know the numbers. The number for

507
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: me is simple, right, I think Tampa has slightly better

508
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 1: than a coin flip's chance here. We've seen it, and

509
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 1: the goaltending could be a huge, huge edge. Like we

510
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,719
Speaker 1: haven't even talked about Andre Bassilevski, whose form I wouldn't

511
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: want to say it wasn't near Vassilevski's ceiling for the

512
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 1: past couple of months, but until he's earned the benefit

513
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: of the down in terms of you know, we'll see

514
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: if if you're truly off your game, like you can

515
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: get a couple of games before we see it. Nick,

516
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: I guess the question here is like, if it comes

517
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: down to goaltending, like the Leafs, if it is goltending's

518
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: gonna s that series that the Leafs really don't have

519
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: much of a hope.

520
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 3: No, I think that obviously they're gonna need to carry

521
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 3: slightly more of the play and you're really got a

522
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 3: good job creating chances that Vasilevski just has no hope on.

523
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 3: I think two notes that I would make on this

524
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 3: series kind of just based on the narratives that I

525
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 3: could see it possibly going down. So I think if

526
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: we somehow saw something like Toronto getting up two to

527
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 3: one heading into game four or maybe three to one,

528
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 3: and the line gets there's a lot of people because

529
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 3: people love to think teams have to win in the playoffs,

530
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 3: which is the thing that I love to watch for.

531
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 3: So for instance, last year we saw with Vegas in Montreal,

532
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 3: I felt it was pretty clear of Montreal, we're at

533
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,639
Speaker 3: least getting themselves a coin flip chance every game, and

534
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 3: then by game six we still saw them as a

535
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 3: big favorite. And I think something like that, where people

536
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 3: just assume that one team has to win based on

537
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,239
Speaker 3: how it's going in this series, could hold a lot

538
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 3: of value. So for instance, something like Toronto getting up

539
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 3: three to one heading home and if they've clearly just

540
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 3: been the better team, I think we could see some

541
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 3: value just backing them to close it out, or the

542
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 3: opposite where Tampa are clearly just dominating. They're finding whatever

543
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 3: easy goals off Campbell, something along those lines, and people

544
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 3: are going to move the price so that we get

545
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 3: so basically, people will be chasing a win from the

546
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: team that's been getting outplayed. And I think it's possible

547
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: we see something like that in this series more often

548
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 3: than maybe people are expecting. We're one team just kind

549
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 3: of is clearly controlling it.

550
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 1: Examp I've always brought up in terms of that of

551
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 1: betting against the must win narrative. I think in the

552
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: Night's first season, they went up three nothing on the Kings.

553
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 3: Yes, that's a really good example.

554
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 1: Right, So like everyone thought when the Knight's still the

555
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: first two games, like, oh, there's no way Los Angeles

556
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: is going to go down to nothing, and the line,

557
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 1: the King's line got hammered, and I just remember thinking

558
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: that the Knights were better them. Yeah.

559
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 3: Right, so they're playing better hockey. It doesn't mean you

560
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 3: have to win just because you're you're down, and I

561
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 3: think we see that a lot every playoff. Another really

562
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 3: good example was it was obviously about a shocking as

563
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 3: it could get, but when Columbus went up three to

564
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 3: zero over Tampa, and Game four there's still a heavy underdog,

565
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 3: and it's we've seen like Tampa gave it. They're all

566
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: in Game three and they got out played and lost.

567
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 3: So I think that's always a good narrative to watch

568
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 3: for in the playoffs. That's where I love some of

569
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 3: these single bets a lot more. Especially there's just those

570
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 3: ones where it's so clear when team's kind of figuring

571
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 3: them out doing all the right things.

572
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: It's it's funny, like we talk about numbers so much

573
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 1: at Action Network on these podcasts, but you know the

574
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: eye test does you need to be able to incorporate

575
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: eye tests and you're raw handicapping skills into the numbers,

576
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: especially in the playoffs in a controlled environment like a

577
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: best of seven series where it's the same teams playing

578
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: each other over and over and over again. All right,

579
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: let's wrap up the Eastern Conference with the Panthers. They

580
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 1: are the biggest favorite in the East. Their minus three

581
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: forty on the series line against Nick your Washington Capitals

582
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 1: will be upfront. Nick is a Washington Capitals fan, so

583
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: he will be looking at this with red, white, and

584
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 1: blue colored tinted glasses. The Caps are plus two sixty here,

585
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: I think there is some sharp people here backing Washington

586
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: at the series price, because it's just a numbers play.

587
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: They can if they can get the goaltending from v

588
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: Tech Manachek to keep them in games. With Florida's propensity

589
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: to give up scoring chances and their goaltending issues of

590
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: their own, there is a path here for a team

591
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 1: with the scoring and the clinical scoring that that Washington has.

592
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: They obviously have some of the best finishers and playmakers

593
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: in the league. I do think two sixties probably a

594
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 1: little short, But if it was where it was kind

595
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 1: of opening in that three hundred range, I would I

596
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 1: would be backing Washington. But for here, it's nothing for me.

597
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: I think the Panthers will likely win the series going away,

598
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 1: but you have thirty percent chance for Washington. I think

599
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: is maybe a touch touch thin here. Before we go

600
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 1: to you, Nick, because you were the fan, we'll go

601
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 1: to Pete first. Can you make an argument here for Washington?

602
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 4: I mean, if you're gonna say they're healthy at the

603
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 4: right time, maybe they get the second line juice that

604
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 4: we haven't seen all season long consistently. Like the inconsistency

605
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 4: for Washington is what troubles me and their chances of

606
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 4: actually winning.

607
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: This series any given game.

608
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 4: I think the Caps are one of the only teams

609
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 4: out there that you can absolutely never count them out

610
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 4: in any given game, home or road. Who's playing, who's

611
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 4: not playing, it doesn't matter. That team is extremely resilient.

612
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 4: They can score with anyone and you know their goaltending

613
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 4: is a little shaky, but they get the wins more

614
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 4: time than not. They head over one hundred points this

615
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 4: season as the last team in the Stanley Cup playoffs

616
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 4: in the East, which is really impressive. So yeah, I

617
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 4: don't think you can count them out, but you have

618
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 4: to see more consistent and more scoring pop from Nicholas Bastrom,

619
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 4: who's having one of his worst seasons in recent memory.

620
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 4: Anthony Manta I think has been underwhelming since the trade

621
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 4: last year, and Tjo, she has dealt with a lot

622
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 4: of injuries. Whether those guys are all playing together on

623
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 4: the second line, are kind of broken up a little

624
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 4: bit on the second and third lines. If they don't

625
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 4: get much from those guys, it'll probably be a very

626
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 4: quick series for Washington. But if those guys start scoring

627
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 4: a lot on Bob and Spencer Knight, which I think

628
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 4: both guys will probably play in the playoffs for Florida

629
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 4: no matter how short or long their run is. Then

630
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 4: it could get really interesting because then we could see

631
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 4: one of the more exciting series in the entire postseason field.

632
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 4: And Washington certainly capable of swinging, you know, pulling the

633
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 4: upset if things go right for them.

634
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,479
Speaker 1: And I think that in terms of coaching, right this

635
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: is gonna be Andrew Brunette's first playoff series. He took

636
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: over for Florida in the middle of or i should say,

637
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: like during the middle of the first quarter of the

638
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: season for Joe Quinnville. He's got a big decision to

639
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: make a goal. And also with Laviolette, like you know

640
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 1: that he's going to set his team up. In Florida

641
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: has a specific way of playing. They're gonna play that

642
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: repeatable style over and over and over again no matter

643
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: their opponent. They're gonna bet on themselves to come ahead

644
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: in scoring chance battles. Whereas Washington they can be an

645
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 1: adaptable team. You can set this team up to say, look,

646
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: we're gonna sit back, we're gonna gum up the neutral

647
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,959
Speaker 1: zone and just try our best to just kill this

648
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 1: transition game for the Panthers, and if you turn that,

649
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: if you turn each game into a rock fight, if

650
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: you turn each game into a coin flip, then you're

651
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,959
Speaker 1: just hoping, Okay, Ken Vanichek match Spencer Knight or Bob Rowski,

652
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, the past do start to

653
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: open up a little bit. One thing that is concerning,

654
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: of course, is Alex Ovechkin goes down hard in one

655
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 1: of the last game of the season for the Capitals.

656
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: Coaches are so cagy with stuff, and the fact that

657
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: that Laviolette said that he wouldn't play the next night

658
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: if it was game one of the playoffs. Maybe was

659
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: a little gamesmanship, and Ovechkin could be completely healthy and

660
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: he's trying to keep the Panthers off the scent. But

661
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 1: if he isn't one hundred percent, then then this task

662
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 1: becomes even taller for Washington. But like I said, I

663
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: think that the number, no matter what, like even at

664
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 1: the current number plus two sixty that I'm seeing here

665
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 1: from Washington, I would lean towards the Caps. If it

666
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: gets bigger, I'm in on Washington. And I also don't

667
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: think if they go down in game one, if they

668
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: lose Game one and the number gets out of control,

669
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: I would probably back Washington again just because I think

670
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: that people will overreact to it could be a seven

671
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 1: to one, you know, thrashing from Florida. And I'll bring

672
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: up this example. I think it was three seasons ago

673
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 1: we saw Philadelphia and Pittsburgh play in a Game one

674
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: of the first round. Pittsburgh won seven to eight two

675
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 1: something crazy like that, and I think that game closed

676
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 1: like plus one sixty four the Flyers for Game one,

677
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: and then the next night it was north of two

678
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 1: to one. So, like Nick was talking about before, with

679
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 1: the must win narrative, you can also bet against Game

680
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: one overreactions to, especially the big blowout. So there are

681
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 1: different ways to get involved in Washington, and I'll be

682
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: looking to back them more than I am looking to

683
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: play the Panthers here. All right, Nick, we'll see the

684
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: floor to you as our resident Caps fan.

685
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 3: You know what, Pete honestly touched on kind of my

686
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 3: main concerns pretty effectively. I think it's just going to

687
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 3: We've seen from Oshian backs from all year. They're kind

688
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 3: of not what they were, and it just seems like

689
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 3: it's such a parlay of stuff that needs to work

690
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 3: out for them to win this series. I'm pretty low

691
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 3: on their chances. I think we kind of know Backstrom's

692
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 3: probably not gonna be much of a difference maker. Oh

693
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 3: she's kind of right there with him. And then I'm

694
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 3: pretty suspicious that Owe is actually hurt fairly bad, so

695
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 3: we've never really seen him. Obviously, they could have played

696
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 3: it safe, but they were playing for a lot, and

697
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 3: I think it could be one of those things like

698
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 3: when he got need by, Cadre came in, played the

699
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 3: rest of the games the same player right before the playoffs,

700
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 3: and I just there's a lot that I think needs

701
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 3: to go right here, and I just I can't really

702
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 3: see the Caps winning the series, honestly.

703
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: So you know think that the plus two sixty year

704
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: is a fair number of that part.

705
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 3: Like, honestly for you just be a no bet and

706
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 3: I think you touched on some of the right points

707
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 3: with maybe depending on how the game play goes. I

708
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 3: do think I had been arguing all year, and I

709
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: think I try to do a pretty good job of

710
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 3: keeping it pretty fair with the take on a team

711
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 3: that I cheer for. I do think at a lot

712
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 3: of points this year they showed more than people thought,

713
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 3: especially with what they what they were fighting through and

714
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 3: I think maybe if they had come in at full

715
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 3: health with kind of Oshi looking like more of a

716
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 3: difference maker and a bit more looking right, I might

717
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 3: have and especially if they drew the Rangers, maybe I'd

718
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 3: be thinking it a better chance. But I think this

719
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 3: is just a bad matchup for them with help, the

720
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: goal attending's gone and it's it's hard for me to

721
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:57,719
Speaker 3: see them winning the series.

722
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: One thing to keep in mind to Pete kind of

723
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: touched on it. Washington ended up, I think with the

724
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 1: best road record in the NHL season. Just a good

725
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: road team, and I think it kind of tells you

726
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 1: that this team plays a specific style that is conducive

727
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 1: to that to weather the storm and then be clinical

728
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: going the other way. Pete, any last thoughts here before

729
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 1: we move to the West.

730
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just wanted to chime in. I mean, because

731
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 4: you look at the potential biggest upsets, this would certainly

732
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 4: be it right if Washington pulled this off, And I

733
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 4: think they are a more grizzled team with what they've

734
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 4: been through through the years. And again, don't count them

735
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 4: out because they steal one of two in Florida and

736
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 4: maybe Florida, we don't know yet if Florida is gonna

737
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 4: have Aaron x Blad back. But Florida's defense, while they

738
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 4: do have options that can score like Foresling and Montor

739
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 4: and Weiger, of course, like their defense is kind of

740
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 4: an abyss without with how Aaron x blads, So that

741
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 4: is a huge injury storyline. If we're gonna if I'm

742
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 4: gonna say that about Carolina, who's a much more structured team,

743
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 4: that one player missing could make a huge difference, then

744
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:08,400
Speaker 4: I'll certainly say that. You know, ek Led missing against

745
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 4: a team like the Caps with a great road record,

746
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 4: like you said, could be a big difference. And if

747
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 4: you were to ask me out of the big like

748
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 4: long shots like the Caps and the Predators out West

749
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 4: and the Dallas Stars, who do I like the most

750
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 4: out of those three to actually win the series, I

751
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 4: might lean towards the Capitals over Nashville or Dallas just

752
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 4: because of what I've seen this season through thick and

753
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 4: thin for them. Whereas you know, I think ultimately those

754
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 4: two other series more times than not, are probably going

755
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 4: to go in the other direction.

756
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, And one thing I would add I guess that

757
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 3: I didn't touch on is this Washington defense Core is

758
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 3: a lot better than they've gotten credit for. I think

759
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 3: like they've got a lot of guys, you've got really

760
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 3: underrated seasons. Nick Jensen's played unreal, Martin Fervar has been

761
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 3: really sharp on the top pair. So I do actually

762
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 3: think they're a better team than they're getting credit for.

763
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 3: And I could see value watching some of the games

764
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 3: and seeing how they're going and maybe looking to get

765
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 3: in on the Caps, but to start going in, I'm

766
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 3: kind of feeling like it's going to be really tough

767
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 3: for them. And then the other thing, compared to playing

768
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 3: a series line, I would almost I could see some

769
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 3: value looking at the Cup prices or the prices to

770
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 3: win the East, because I do think if you see

771
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 3: them win this series with Florida, it's they're going to

772
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 3: plummet from where they're at right now. And obviously that

773
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 3: would show would be a huge sign that they can

774
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 3: go with anyone. But that's that's starting to get Obviously

775
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 3: I'd like to see it go that way, but that's.

776
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: The right way to look at it, right Like, the

777
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 1: Capitals are a team that if you're going to back

778
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 1: them to beat Florida, then definitely take a look at

779
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: their derivatives right their their Eastern Conference ods and their

780
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: Stanley Cup futures, because if they beat Florida, that's the

781
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: biggest hurdle. And they, like you said, they've cleared the

782
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 1: best team in the East, and now they are going

783
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 1: to get a should be softened version between Tampa and

784
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 1: Toronto because they've also got through a first round matchup

785
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 1: that could drag deep. So I wouldn't say I'd say that.

786
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 1: I want to think just in a vacuum, Washington is

787
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 1: worth a bet in the Stanley computures. But if you

788
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: are like Nick or you want to bet on the

789
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 1: Capitals or your Capitals fan listening to this, you're from

790
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 1: the you know the area or something, I would go

791
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 1: that way rather than just you know, if you are

792
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 1: going to bet the series PRIs I'd also add something

793
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,480
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794
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795
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811
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812
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813
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814
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815
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821
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:44,760
Speaker 2: back to the show, I guess we will.

822
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: Now move on to the Western Conference. We'll start with

823
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,840
Speaker 1: what I think is going to be a compelling series.

824
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: And people have been talking about the series for like

825
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 1: three four months. It's every year during the NFL season,

826
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 1: people just say, give me seven seven games a blank matchup, right,

827
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 1: And the past few months it's been this one. It's

828
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: been the Blues and wild Saint Louis plus one thirty

829
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 1: on the series line, Minnesota's minus one fifty. They have

830
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: homics advantage here, but Minnesota two five and four, so

831
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 1: two wins out of their last eleven against Saint Louis

832
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 1: in their last two seasons. I don't think you should

833
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: bring these these head to head matchups, that you should

834
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: weigh them too much. But there will be exceptions to

835
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 1: every rule. This perhaps is one. Maybe the Blues just

836
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 1: match up well against this team. The game one odds

837
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 1: Minnesota minus one forty, Saint Louis plus one twenty some models.

838
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:33,839
Speaker 1: I would say a lot of sharp people are all

839
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: over the place of the series. A lot of people

840
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 1: really really like Minnesota, like Beete, and a lot of

841
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 1: people really really like Saint Louis. Because I think the

842
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 1: numbers for both teams kind of skew the perception, and

843
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: with Saint Louis, it comes down to how healthy has

844
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 1: this team been for most of the season, and the

845
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 1: answer is not. They've always been missing a key piece

846
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 1: and they're so deep, and that depth is so important,

847
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: especially up top to their success that now that they

848
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,479
Speaker 1: are healthy going into the playoffs and they have three

849
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: lines that can basically play against anybody in the NHL,

850
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 1: I think Saint Louis is more than worth you know,

851
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 1: the plus one thirty price here on the series, and

852
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: I think that they're another team that I would say,

853
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 1: if you're going to back them here, I think they

854
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 1: can pull one over on Colorado. I think that they're

855
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 1: just so deep going forward they can if you have

856
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: one weak link on of your forward line, the Blues

857
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 1: are going to find it. And they're getting good goaltending

858
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: from Ville Huso. Jordan Binnington has a playoff pedigree, so

859
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 1: if they have to go whatever way they have to go,

860
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 1: there could be an advantage. So I think Saint Louis

861
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 1: is an attractive proposition across a number of different ways,

862
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 1: and another team that I'll be backing in a different

863
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 1: way later on in the show too, So I'm going

864
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 1: to be backing Saint Louis plus one thirty I'll be

865
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: probably betting them on a game by game basis in

866
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 1: this series. Pete, I know you're into the wild, so

867
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start with you.

868
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, I think that what we've seen from

869
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 4: the wild of obviously the Caprizov ripple effect. I know

870
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 4: that Zukerrello is dealing with a little minor injury, but

871
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 4: doesn't sound like anything too serious. Same for Braden Shen

872
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 4: on the other side. I mean, this could make for

873
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 4: a very hectic, high scoring series, right even though we're

874
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 4: talking Flurry and Talbot on one side and Cup champ

875
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 4: Jordan Binnington and whoso breakout goalie of the season on

876
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 4: the other side, there could be a lot of high

877
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 4: scoring games. These two teams have the best and second

878
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 4: best five on five shooting percentages in the NHL this season.

879
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 4: Saint Louis is first and Minnesota was second. Saint Louis

880
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 4: has one of the best offenses in general and best

881
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 4: power plays top five in both. So I mean, even

882
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 4: though I like Minnesota, I do like Minnesota's chances of

883
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 4: making a deep run more than Saint Louis because I

884
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 4: think their goaltending is considerably better and some of those

885
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,959
Speaker 4: injury absences. If it does carry over from Minnesota could

886
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:52,320
Speaker 4: catch up to them. But yeah, I'm a big fan

887
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 4: of what Minnesota could do down the road, more so

888
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 4: than Saint Louis in terms of winning multiple ras. So

889
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 4: that's why I'm kind of like, just buy a hair,

890
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 4: I'll side with Minnesota in terms of the matchup in

891
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:08,320
Speaker 4: this series.

892
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's interesting that there were some There

893
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 1: was a model at the Athletic that had Minnesota's seventy

894
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,760
Speaker 1: five percent favorite, and then a couple of professional betters

895
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 1: that I know have this close to fifty to fifty.

896
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 1: So I think the public and private data here is

897
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 1: skewing a lot of different things. And Saint Louis is

898
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 1: a type of team that if they do steal one

899
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 1: on the road here, they're so streaky, I should say

900
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 1: it's like they should they could. They've rattled off wins

901
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:34,919
Speaker 1: at will at times in the season. Then of course

902
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:36,839
Speaker 1: they've they've gone through losing streaks too, so it's it's

903
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 1: an interesting proposition in terms of the makeup of these

904
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: teams too. Nick, you like the Blues. I think you

905
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 1: think they have a pretty high ceiling too. In terms

906
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: of going a little bit further in the playoffs that

907
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 1: many people are expecting.

908
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm pretty high on the Blues here. Like

909
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 3: I totally respect the Wild, but this is just one

910
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 3: we're given that price of plus one thirty. I see

911
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 3: more value on the Blues as the side. These teams

912
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 3: are both really good at creating the kinds of chances

913
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 3: that are going to lead to goals very often. Like

914
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 3: I totally agree. I think even when we see things

915
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 3: tighten up in the playoffs, they're both still going to

916
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 3: put together a lot of high offensive outputs here. They're

917
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 3: both high on the slot passes completed lists. The Blues

918
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 3: are really really notably good at forcing goaltenders to move,

919
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 3: Like I think a lot of times we're going to

920
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 3: see them not falling into these traps where they're getting

921
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 3: thirty shots and one goal too often. I think if

922
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 3: they control a fair share of the play they'll get

923
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 3: their offensive output together. And then the other thing. So

924
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 3: one of the hugest concerns all season long was that

925
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,399
Speaker 3: left side defensively, But when they have Letty in there

926
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 3: now it is when they're actually playing with the full lineup,

927
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 3: it should be a lot better. We saw their defensive

928
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:49,959
Speaker 3: analytics did improve a lot since the deadline, even still

929
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,359
Speaker 3: without kru So I do think there's a pretty high

930
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 3: ceiling for the Blues.

931
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is a trade that will be

932
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,720
Speaker 1: near dear to your heart, Nick the Michael Empty trade.

933
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: When the Blues traded for Nick Letty, I was like,

934
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 1: this is the perfect example of a trade deadline acquisition.

935
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 1: That what it does more than anything, It doesn't tip

936
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 1: the scales like a Claud Jeru trade could do, but

937
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 1: it puts everybody in their right position. Nick Letty has

938
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 1: been through numerous playoff runs with the Islanders. Now playing

939
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 1: that you know two number two pair roll, number three

940
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,760
Speaker 1: pair roll on the left side. He can move the pocket,

941
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 1: can play a little power play time, He can give

942
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 1: you that like thirty seconds at the end of a

943
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: power play to keep momentum going, or perhaps Nick a

944
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:33,240
Speaker 1: goal with the second unit. So he made them better,

945
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 1: not because he's been great, but just because he's put

946
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 1: everybody else in the right position. And against this Wild

947
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,439
Speaker 1: team that matters for sure.

948
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 3: Like there, I totally see the Wild have three excellent

949
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:47,720
Speaker 3: lines too. I just think there's a little a little more.

950
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 3: The Blues have three lines that have so much scoring

951
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 3: talent that I think it's I see so much upside

952
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 3: with how they could shake out like Cairou's if Cairou

953
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 3: could be such an act factor, with how like what

954
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 3: his skill set all entails, and where they're kind of

955
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 3: capable of placing him in the lineup. And yeah, I

956
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 3: totally see your point on the lenything. It's just such

957
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 3: an addition by subtraction where that was their clear worst

958
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 3: spot in the lineup and they brought in a guy

959
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 3: who's not amazing, but he's going to help them so

960
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 3: much in those minutes. And then the last thing I'll

961
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 3: touch on, well, I kind of have the floor here.

962
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 3: So a prop that I really liked in this series.

963
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 3: If you can get series score to be two to

964
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 3: two after four games, it should be plus one forty five.

965
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 3: And I really like that. I think this is a

966
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 3: market where since there's five outcomes, we get a well

967
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 3: pass plus number on the most likely one. But I

968
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 3: think it's just so much of the time the series

969
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,720
Speaker 3: can be two to two that yeah, I see value

970
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 3: on that as kind of a unique problem.

971
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the widest odds for

972
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 1: the first round. Colorado minus six fifty gets Nashville plus

973
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,840
Speaker 1: four fifty the game one odds minus three twenty for

974
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: the Abs, Nashville plus two fifty Colorado's minus the series

975
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 1: bread so minus two and a half games in a

976
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 1: best of seven series for them to win by three

977
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 1: games or sweep minus won ten. So that goes to

978
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: show that just tells you kind of how everyone is

979
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 1: expecting the series to shake out. And it would be

980
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:16,720
Speaker 1: a lot tighter if the Predators didn't have a crucial

981
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,720
Speaker 1: injury to Yousorrows, who was playing like a Vesna goalie

982
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 1: for the first sixty games of the season, kind of

983
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 1: slowed down a little bit as the game started pile up,

984
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 1: and then he got hurt in the last week of

985
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:27,919
Speaker 1: the season. So now we're going to see big save

986
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 1: Dave Riddick most likely in goal for Nashville, or a

987
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,839
Speaker 1: banged up you Sorrows if they really want to throw

988
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: him in there. Before Sorrows went down with this matchup,

989
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 1: you were thinking everyone was thinking the same thing. The

990
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 1: only way Nashville wins the series is if sorrow steals it.

991
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: And now you're asking yourself, the only way that wins

992
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 1: the series is if Dave Riddicks steals it, and that's

993
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:50,320
Speaker 1: a completely completely different question, and the odds reflect it.

994
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 1: It's really hard to get involved with Nashville. Although we

995
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 1: will add the caveat this is the Stanley Cup playoffs.

996
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 1: We've seen Columbus upset the Tampa Bay Lightning. We saw

997
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,799
Speaker 1: Calgary after their their great season a couple of years ago,

998
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 1: go down to the Avalanche. Last year we saw the

999
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 1: Canadians beat the Maple Leafs. So there's just there. There

1000
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: is usually an upset that comes from nowhere. But that aside,

1001
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 1: it's really really hard to kind of count the ways

1002
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:17,800
Speaker 1: that Nashville can win this one. So it's going to

1003
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 1: be a series that I'll likely be sitting out. I

1004
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 1: think a lot of people will be backing Colorado on

1005
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 1: series spreads Colorado's sweep. I think if you want to

1006
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 1: maybe get some value, you can back Nashville, like maybe

1007
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 1: over one and a half games, because this is, you know, still,

1008
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: especially when when it flips back to Nashville, like they

1009
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 1: should be able to get a game on the on

1010
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 1: the scoreboard here, so then you're looking at a decent

1011
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 1: price on that. So that would be the only way

1012
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 1: I'd look to back at. Otherwise it's it's a pass

1013
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 1: for me. Pete, Is this as straightforward for you?

1014
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 4: I mean, I think so. I was a little looking

1015
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,720
Speaker 4: back at the regular season series. I was a little

1016
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 4: surprised to see some of the big numbers that Nashville

1017
00:47:59,920 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 4: Is offense put up against the Avalanche. I know Colorado

1018
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 4: did the same right back to them, but Nashville did

1019
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 4: win three out of four in the season series, and

1020
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 4: big performances from Roman Yosi, who like he carries that

1021
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 4: team just as much as Sorrows does, and I think

1022
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 4: he's a big X factor, especially if Sorrows does not play.

1023
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:23,360
Speaker 4: He would need to have a series of his life

1024
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 4: type of thing to narrow the gap a little bit.

1025
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 4: Matt Dushane, playing his former team, scored four goals against

1026
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 4: the Avalanche in the regular season this year in four games,

1027
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 4: and had forty three on the season. So that Matt

1028
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 4: du Shane storyline is a huge one. It was kind

1029
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,720
Speaker 4: of like something I forgot about at first glance because

1030
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 4: it was a couple of teams ago for Matt Dushane, Right,

1031
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,759
Speaker 4: but he'll have that motivation facing a bunch of his

1032
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 4: former teammates. Yeah, but I think Colorado is just, you know,

1033
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 4: well oiled machine. They have to get over the hump

1034
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 4: in the second round this year. I think they all

1035
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 4: know it. Having Nasum Kadri healthy is a huge deal,

1036
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 4: even if Landeskog isn't. I think Cadres even more of

1037
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 4: a different difference maker in the playoffs than landskag is personally.

1038
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 4: So if Cadri stays healthy, doesn't get suspended, this could

1039
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 4: certainly be a breeze for the Avalanche, at least in

1040
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 4: the first round.

1041
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: A point I was touching on before about the kind

1042
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 1: of narrative base thing if after game one, if Colorado

1043
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 1: just just storms Nashville. Here, just keep in mind, right

1044
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 1: the game one price here minus three twenty for the

1045
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:37,960
Speaker 1: Ads plus two fifty for Nashville. Doubt it closes exactly there,

1046
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,319
Speaker 1: but just keep in mind what that Nashville number is,

1047
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,719
Speaker 1: because let's say Colorado wins six to one in game one,

1048
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,720
Speaker 1: that national number is going to get ludicrous really quickly,

1049
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 1: and you will you will have value on Nashville in

1050
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 1: game two. It's a bet you won't. You lose more

1051
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 1: likely than you win, but it'll be a numbers play there.

1052
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 1: So that's just another way I'm looking at this one. Nick,

1053
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: you like the Avalanche to win the Stanley Cup. So

1054
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: I'm assuming you don't really see nationalists that much of

1055
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:07,799
Speaker 1: a hurdle here.

1056
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,640
Speaker 3: I don't, but I will say I'm actually kind of

1057
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 3: bummed with how this worked out where it's Nashville's dropped

1058
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 3: to Colorado without sorrows, because I actually believe in Nashville

1059
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 3: a lot more than I believe in Stars. This year,

1060
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 3: I think they've shown they can be a lot less

1061
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 3: one dimensional and there is a lot to like about

1062
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,319
Speaker 3: their team. So I think for a group that I

1063
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 3: really like, it's and like I've enjoyed watching Douchanes turnaround

1064
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:35,359
Speaker 3: and Yocie carrying just playing at such an unreal level

1065
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 3: this season that I'm just bummed it's worked out where

1066
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:40,800
Speaker 3: they're probably just going to be out in five games

1067
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 3: versus Colorado with Ridditch and net So, yeah, personally, I

1068
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 3: for a bit there when I was lined up, I

1069
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 3: was eyeing the Flames Nashville series as the potential to

1070
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 3: be a little closer than people expected. But yeah, I

1071
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 3: think on this one and the other note too with

1072
00:50:56,600 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 3: the Avs, that I think is a fair defense. I mean,

1073
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 3: they obviously don't They've finished what two point short of

1074
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 3: the President's Trophy or whatever it was, but they played

1075
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 3: so many games with man games lost to truly elite pieces,

1076
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 3: where I think no one lost that many man games

1077
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,399
Speaker 3: to such quality pieces and was anywhere near the top

1078
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 3: of the standings like they were. So I think it's

1079
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 3: just a ridiculous comment to the depth that that team

1080
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,720
Speaker 3: has right now, and depth in the kinds of elite

1081
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 3: pieces that are going to control games in the playoffs

1082
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 3: and still be more effective when the minutes go up

1083
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 3: a little bit for some of those guys like McKinnon

1084
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:30,760
Speaker 3: and Carr and Taves.

1085
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people will bring up this

1086
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:36,319
Speaker 1: narrative in terms of trying to knock Colorado down a

1087
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 1: couple pegs, which is this is Darcy Kemper's first true

1088
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 1: go around as a Stanley Cup playoff goalie, so we

1089
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: don't know how he'll play under the pressure. But when

1090
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:47,760
Speaker 1: you're backing up Colorado, there's really not that much pressure.

1091
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 1: You got to keep it to four or less, basically

1092
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 1: three or less. So I'm not too worried about Camper,

1093
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:54,839
Speaker 1: who's been really really good this season as well, so

1094
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 1: not a huge deal for me. All right, let's skip

1095
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: over to the Pacific Division. I think Los Angeles is

1096
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 1: going to be a trendy pick to be that upset

1097
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 1: team because they're playing the Oilers minus two fifty Edmonton

1098
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 1: is Los Angeles plus two hundred on the series line,

1099
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 1: Edmonton minus one eighty five for Game one, the King's

1100
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 1: coming back plus one fifty, And I think the narrative

1101
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,480
Speaker 1: around Edmonton is going to be will they get the

1102
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 1: goaltending to back up their incredible offense? You know, their

1103
00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 1: offensive talents and David and Dry Tidle, Evander Kaine's been

1104
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:28,399
Speaker 1: really good, Evan Bouchard on the back end, I think

1105
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 1: the Oilers have And this is someone who I was

1106
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 1: very low on Edmonton coming into this season. I was

1107
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 1: pretty low on them going into last season. I bet

1108
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 1: against them in the playoffs last year and they're Round

1109
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,439
Speaker 1: one matchup, and I don't think that this number on

1110
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:42,759
Speaker 1: Los Angeles is high enough to bet them. I think

1111
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 1: that the gap year is pretty wide, especially with the

1112
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 1: Kings banged up on the defensive end. And Mike Smith

1113
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: has just been really, really good. And sure he's the

1114
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 1: type of goalie that can turn off his form just

1115
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 1: like that, but I think just at this number, Edmonton looks,

1116
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:02,720
Speaker 1: you know it looks appropriate. I think if Los Angeles

1117
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:05,840
Speaker 1: was much higher, Yeah, of course i'd be interested, but

1118
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 1: they're not there, So nothing for me here. Surprisingly, I

1119
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 1: really thought that i would be getting involved on at

1120
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 1: the Kings, but I'm actually going to pass here. Pete,

1121
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:16,239
Speaker 1: do you see the potential for an upset here?

1122
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 4: There is always the potential with Edmonton, right if Mike

1123
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 4: Smith gets injured. I mean, he's forty years old. If

1124
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 4: he loses a game or two, we could see things

1125
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:28,400
Speaker 4: go off the rails like they did each of the

1126
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 4: past two seasons. I don't know if Mike Smith has

1127
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 4: won a game in the playoffs past two seasons combined.

1128
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 4: Maybe if he did, it was only one. But last year,

1129
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 4: of course, you know, it went off the rails quickly

1130
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 4: against Winnipeg, and then the game four kind of after

1131
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 4: the heartbreaker turned into one of those scenarios that you

1132
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 4: were talking about earlier where it was like, oh, Edmonton

1133
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 4: can't get swept by the Jets, can they? And then

1134
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 4: they did. So yeah, that kind of echoes what you

1135
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 4: said earlier in the show. But I mean, I do

1136
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 4: think the Evander Can layer is a huge one. I'd

1137
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 4: be very surprised if Edmonton loses this series. I might

1138
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 4: have picked the Kings had Drew Dowdy been healthy, not

1139
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 4: even stretch run of the regular season. I'm talking like

1140
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,880
Speaker 4: if he was coming back for the playoffs, but he

1141
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:21,240
Speaker 4: has been ruled out for the rest of the season,

1142
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 4: so that's a big blow to that defense. Sean Deursey

1143
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,280
Speaker 4: has been a nice story, couple of the other guys,

1144
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 4: Spence and some of these other guys chipping in, But

1145
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 4: I just I think this is probably the best opportunity

1146
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 4: yet for since that year when they went to the

1147
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 4: second round for McDavid and dry Siddle to just will

1148
00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 4: their way past a clearly inferior opponent without Dowdy. So yeah,

1149
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 4: that's kind of what I'm looking at. And then Cain

1150
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 4: kind of gives them that physicality that they've been lacking,

1151
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:56,840
Speaker 4: and Hyman does as well. Himan, not no one's talking about,

1152
00:54:57,040 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 4: just had a career year this year, even though he

1153
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 4: maybe didn't blow up and have a full fledged breakout,

1154
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 4: still had a career year, and a Hymen and Cain

1155
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 4: provide that physical layer that the Oilers have definitely lacked

1156
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 4: in the past two years.

1157
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 1: The one thing you do bring up with Los Angeles

1158
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 1: is We've seen Jonathan Quick have resurgent year, and he's

1159
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,359
Speaker 1: the type of goalie who can just he's so tough

1160
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 1: to figure out because he's an unconventional player that he

1161
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:25,759
Speaker 1: can steal a game or two here. But I do

1162
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 1: think if Edmonton they're plus six hundred, which is too

1163
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: short to pull up the sweep. But I think that

1164
00:55:32,960 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: the series does in my mind. Just have a written

1165
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:38,359
Speaker 1: Edmonton under five and a half games, if you can

1166
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:41,560
Speaker 1: get that at your book, or you know, Edmonton minus

1167
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 1: two and a half, because I think the range of

1168
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 1: outcomes here are one of these team teams is probably

1169
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:48,879
Speaker 1: gonna win a short series, and it's much more likely

1170
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: that it would be Edmonton. Nick, what do you have here?

1171
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 3: I fully agree like if I was going to look

1172
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,840
Speaker 3: towards Edmonton, I think it would be looking at a

1173
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 3: short series, like you said, plus six hundred person. With

1174
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:05,280
Speaker 3: that said, though, looking at the series number, I would

1175
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 3: just say I'm going to pass. I'm still I think

1176
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,879
Speaker 3: there's a little bit too much shakiness with Smith and

1177
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 3: some of the upside from the Kings. I can definitely

1178
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 3: see a world where the Oilers are sweeping the Kings

1179
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 3: more often than that line. Suggests, but I definitely think

1180
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 3: there's things that can go wrong here where I'm I'm

1181
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 3: not seeing it as a good opportunity to just pound

1182
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:29,760
Speaker 3: the oilers on the series line. I think there's definitely

1183
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,239
Speaker 3: some things that could go wrong there with mainly just

1184
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,400
Speaker 3: with Smith being unproven and I shouldn't say unproven, but

1185
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 3: just showing some bad form in these spots in recent years.

1186
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 3: And the one thing that I think you could take

1187
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 3: as a big positive and a big negative, A huge

1188
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 3: part of his turnaround has just been how sharp they've

1189
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 3: been playing defensively, and I think this would probably be

1190
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 3: more of a comment looking towards the next series if

1191
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 3: they get into it with Calgary. But I do think

1192
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:59,439
Speaker 3: we're gonna see him struggle once they can control less

1193
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 3: of the play, giving up more of the high quality

1194
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:05,279
Speaker 3: chances that I think they will even with perspective how

1195
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 3: much better they've been defensively under Woodcroft, but I think

1196
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 3: we will see Smith come down to earth when they

1197
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:13,279
Speaker 3: play some truly elite teams and they're not going to

1198
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 3: insulate them as effectively.

1199
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 1: I think that point you made about their defense is

1200
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 1: at testament to the team and also the coaching staff.

1201
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:23,880
Speaker 1: J Woodcroft comes in. He's coached about forty games now

1202
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 1: for the Oilers, and their defensive structure has just approved

1203
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:29,400
Speaker 1: immensely and his coaching staff does a really really good

1204
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 1: job of matching lines, I think. So you're going to

1205
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 1: see him get McDavid the best matchup at home and

1206
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 1: do his best to get it on the road. So

1207
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 1: we could see some gaudy numbers from Connor here, Pete

1208
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 1: before we move on to the last best of seven.

1209
00:57:44,840 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 1: Anything you want to add for Edmonton and the Kings, Yeah, just.

1210
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:51,919
Speaker 4: To kind of tout the Kings and what they've done

1211
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:55,840
Speaker 4: this year despite injuries. Remember they missed Dowdy earlier in

1212
00:57:55,840 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 4: the year as well, and we all thought they'd be done,

1213
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 4: they wouldn't have a chance to hang in playoff contention.

1214
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 4: They've been quick to respond after losses this year. They've

1215
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 4: been kind of a top five possession team shot attempts percentage.

1216
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 4: I'm talking all season long. So, I mean there is

1217
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 4: some against the grain appeal in the Kings game by

1218
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 4: game I think to surprise. But yeah, I think the

1219
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:26,919
Speaker 4: Edmonton Oilers are just a lot stronger on paper here.

1220
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:29,720
Speaker 4: That hasn't always translated in the past, but I think

1221
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 4: it probably will here. And then yeah, one other storyline though,

1222
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:38,040
Speaker 4: of cause concern with the Oilers is that Darnell Nurse

1223
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 4: is a little banged up. I know that Evan Bouchard

1224
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 4: is capable of taking on a bigger role. If Edmonton

1225
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 4: is going to give it to them, probably would still

1226
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 4: be enough. He's probably the best defenseman in the series,

1227
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 4: Evan Bouchard, even if Nurse is playing. But maybe it

1228
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 4: would give Bouchard an expanded role, something I would be

1229
00:58:57,360 --> 00:59:01,840
Speaker 4: looking at in dfs or fantasy playoff pools, that type

1230
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 4: of thing. But yeah, I think the La Kings are

1231
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 4: going to need some, you know, out of this world performance,

1232
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 4: maybe from that second line of Arvidston, Trevor Moore, you know,

1233
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 4: that type of line, just to stand a chance to

1234
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 4: win this series. But I did want to mention that

1235
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 4: they they have been good possession wise all season long,

1236
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 4: and people have doubted them at different times and they've

1237
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 4: you know, maybe it was because Vegas ran out of

1238
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:31,040
Speaker 4: raceway at the end of the season when they finally

1239
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:33,920
Speaker 4: got healthy, the La Kings kind of backed into the

1240
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 4: playoffs a little bit, but they still did enough, and

1241
00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 4: they had enough resiliency all year at different points to

1242
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 4: respond from some really ugly losses and then string together

1243
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 4: a winning streak right after that loss.

1244
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, one thing the Kings will certainly be saying in

1245
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 1: terms of trying to pump themselves up is we've been

1246
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 1: playing playoff games for past month and a half, whereas

1247
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 1: the Oilers not that they could cruise into the playoffs.

1248
00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: There just wasn't as much jeopardy because they went on

1249
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:02,520
Speaker 1: such a we're on right after Woodcroft took over. All right,

1250
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 1: the final best of seven that we want to touch on.

1251
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 1: It's really funny how this playoffs is shaken out. In

1252
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 1: the East, you're looking at minus one ten, minus one ten,

1253
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:13,160
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen, minus one five, minus one twenty plus

1254
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:15,280
Speaker 1: one hundred, and then obviously the Panthers line is wider.

1255
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:17,560
Speaker 1: But in the West it's you know, minus one fifty

1256
01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 1: plus one thirty for Saint Louis and Minnesota, and that

1257
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 1: is the tightest lined best of seven, This one Calgary

1258
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 1: minus three hundred with home iice advantage taking on the

1259
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 1: Stars plus two thirty five. Nick touched on it before.

1260
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 1: I think if Dallas played Colorado, Dallas's kind of wonky

1261
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: game would have matched up better against Colorado, and I

1262
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 1: would have been betting them. This is a different beast.

1263
01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 1: Calgary is just a relentless five on five team. They

1264
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 1: come at you basically like no other team in the NHL.

1265
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 1: I think the Caroline Hurricanes are maybe the closest comp

1266
01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 1: to them in terms of just continuing to get the

1267
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 1: puck below the dots and going to work. And Dallas

1268
01:00:57,760 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 1: just doesn't set up to perform well against this type

1269
01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 1: of team. They're so overly reliant on that one line

1270
01:01:04,120 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 1: and guys like Mio he Hayskinen and John Klingberg on

1271
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 1: the back end. And Calgary they have the horses to

1272
01:01:09,800 --> 01:01:13,320
Speaker 1: snuff those guys out, so not too many past the success,

1273
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 1: you actually think Calgary's worth a bet, like to sweep,

1274
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 1: I think Calgary is worth a bet minus one and

1275
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 1: a half games. I think Calgary wins this thing pretty

1276
01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:26,920
Speaker 1: pretty quickly, much more often than not. So I'll take

1277
01:01:26,920 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 1: the Flames here on the series s bread minus one

1278
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 1: and a half. I believe you can get it at

1279
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:35,160
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five minus one forty And I also

1280
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 1: think if you want to get a little frisky, you

1281
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:39,920
Speaker 1: can back them, you know, minus two and a half

1282
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 1: plus one sixty Nick, you're in Calgary. What do you

1283
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:46,920
Speaker 1: think here between Flames and Stars?

1284
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 3: So, as someone who does not support the Flames, I

1285
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 3: think as a Flame spread bet is a good bet.

1286
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,920
Speaker 3: I truly think the Stars are the worst team that

1287
01:01:55,960 --> 01:01:58,920
Speaker 3: made the playoffs out of the sixteen. They had a

1288
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:02,120
Speaker 3: negative goal difference. They just ran super good in single

1289
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 3: goal games, collected a ton of points past regulation a

1290
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 3: lot of nights. I think myself and a lot of

1291
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 3: fans were hating on them because they play for a

1292
01:02:12,840 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 3: draw from about fifty minutes left in the third half

1293
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:19,200
Speaker 3: the time, and I just, yeah, I really, I'm pretty

1294
01:02:19,240 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 3: low on the Stars. So I think that the Flames

1295
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 3: got their money's worth out of their their strong place

1296
01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:25,600
Speaker 3: in the standings with this one. And I definitely think

1297
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:30,040
Speaker 3: Flames in five is pretty reasonable take.

1298
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:35,200
Speaker 1: Do you have any interest here in Dallas being able

1299
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:36,440
Speaker 1: to pull one over on Calgary?

1300
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:39,360
Speaker 4: Well, first, I wanted to mention, like I talked about

1301
01:02:39,400 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 4: the Vegas missing the playoffs ripple effect, it affects a

1302
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 4: bunch of different teams, and Calgary's one of them. Now,

1303
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:48,440
Speaker 4: I feel like, you know, you can never say a

1304
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:51,480
Speaker 4: team a foregone conclusion that they're going to go to

1305
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:54,800
Speaker 4: the Conference final or something like that. But I think

1306
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 4: the Calgary has a really great chance to do so,

1307
01:02:58,000 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 4: even better than if they had to into Vegas, who

1308
01:03:01,120 --> 01:03:04,200
Speaker 4: could have maybe clicked at the right time had they

1309
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:07,120
Speaker 4: made the playoffs. You could say that the path is

1310
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 4: a little easier to win the Cup out of the

1311
01:03:09,120 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 4: West for the Avalanche now that they don't have to

1312
01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:13,720
Speaker 4: play Vegas, not only in the first round, but maybe

1313
01:03:13,720 --> 01:03:16,600
Speaker 4: perhaps later if they clicked at the right time. So

1314
01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:21,120
Speaker 4: it's just a storyline. Very rarely do you swing so

1315
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,760
Speaker 4: much like in your opinions just because one team didn't

1316
01:03:24,800 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 4: make the playoffs, but that was a shocker. So I

1317
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 4: just wanted to mention that there's definitely a ripple effect

1318
01:03:30,560 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 4: and it concerns Calgary as well. Wanted to also mention

1319
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:38,200
Speaker 4: that one of the craziest playoff series that I can

1320
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:41,120
Speaker 4: remember in the past five years or so was when

1321
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:43,880
Speaker 4: Calgary and Dallas played each other a couple of years ago.

1322
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:48,440
Speaker 4: That series could have easily gone in Calgary's favor. They

1323
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:51,200
Speaker 4: played a lot of topsy turvy games. I think this

1324
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 4: series could be a little closer than meets the eye

1325
01:03:54,120 --> 01:03:57,320
Speaker 4: right now, but I did pick Calgary on NHL Dot

1326
01:03:57,320 --> 01:03:59,760
Speaker 4: com because I think they probably have the clearest path

1327
01:03:59,800 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 4: of anyone in the entire postseason field to make the

1328
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:07,240
Speaker 4: conference finals, so they really should take care of business here.

1329
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 4: They have arguably the best top line in hockey this

1330
01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:14,920
Speaker 4: season with what they've done not only plus minus wise,

1331
01:04:14,920 --> 01:04:18,320
Speaker 4: but just scoring across the board. It's ridiculous. With Kachuck

1332
01:04:18,360 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 4: and Goodrou in his contract year and Elias Linnholm have

1333
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:26,760
Speaker 4: done together. I don't think Dallas has any I mean,

1334
01:04:26,800 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 4: they have a great top line trio as well, so

1335
01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 4: I shouldn't say they they don't have anybody to match that.

1336
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:35,840
Speaker 4: But I think there's a big difference with what Calgary

1337
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 4: has now, not only with Sutter at the helm, compared

1338
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 4: to that twenty twenty series when they played each other.

1339
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:46,120
Speaker 4: They also have Jacob Markstrom, they have tanav they have

1340
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 4: Tyler Tafoli. Those are huge difference makers comparatively to that

1341
01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:54,040
Speaker 4: group that fell short against the Stars the year that

1342
01:04:54,120 --> 01:04:56,440
Speaker 4: Dallas went all the way to the finals. So yeah,

1343
01:04:56,520 --> 01:04:59,760
Speaker 4: long story short, I do like Calgary more times than

1344
01:04:59,840 --> 01:05:01,080
Speaker 4: not here in this matchup.

1345
01:05:01,360 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 1: All right, that brings to a close all eight first

1346
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 1: round matchups. Now we'll get into the fun stuff. A

1347
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:11,760
Speaker 1: couple of con smythe punts here. One thing I'll say

1348
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 1: right off the jump, when you're betting the con smyth,

1349
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 1: you should try to game theory. It more than just saying, Oh,

1350
01:05:16,640 --> 01:05:19,000
Speaker 1: Nathan McKinnon's the best player in the field, Connor McDavid's

1351
01:05:19,000 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 1: the best player in the field. McKinnon's the favorite, he's

1352
01:05:21,200 --> 01:05:23,040
Speaker 1: twelve to one. He's a favorite because his team is

1353
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,560
Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup favorite. But if he's the if the

1354
01:05:25,560 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 1: Avalanche win the Stanley Cup, he's not. There's so many

1355
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:32,200
Speaker 1: players on that team that could seriously pop, like Cal mccarr,

1356
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:36,560
Speaker 1: Devon Tate's Darcy Kemper that he's competing against a much

1357
01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:39,960
Speaker 1: deeper field than let's say, someone like you know, if

1358
01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:43,360
Speaker 1: the Penguins win is Stanley Cup, it's gonna be Sidney Crosby,

1359
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:45,760
Speaker 1: you know, Pete. I remember going on the NHL dot

1360
01:05:45,800 --> 01:05:48,360
Speaker 1: Com Fantasy on Ice podcast last year and saying Carrie

1361
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 1: Price was worth a bet because he was like triple

1362
01:05:50,360 --> 01:05:53,080
Speaker 1: digit odds to win the con smythe last year, whereas

1363
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:55,520
Speaker 1: the the Canadians were fifty to one, and sure, the

1364
01:05:55,760 --> 01:05:57,520
Speaker 1: Canadians were a big long shot, and it just they

1365
01:05:57,520 --> 01:05:59,440
Speaker 1: got lucky. And got to the Stanley Cup final. Yeah,

1366
01:05:59,480 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 1: but they weren't going to get there without carry Price

1367
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 1: and he was going to win the Cons smythe if

1368
01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:06,240
Speaker 1: if they got there. So instead of betting the Canadians

1369
01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 1: at fifty to one, go ahead and bet carry Price

1370
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:10,800
Speaker 1: at one hundred to one. And I think we'll talk

1371
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 1: about that kind of stuff a lot here. I'll just

1372
01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:16,440
Speaker 1: give a couple of teams that I'm targeting and then

1373
01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:19,320
Speaker 1: the names that I like. So Pittsburgh I touched on

1374
01:06:19,480 --> 01:06:22,680
Speaker 1: Crosby's fifty to one. The Penguins are like eighteen between

1375
01:06:22,800 --> 01:06:24,280
Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty four to one to win the Stanley

1376
01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 1: Cup if they win the Stanley Cup. Crosby's winning the

1377
01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:29,560
Speaker 1: Cons smithe, so I like him. I think backing the

1378
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 1: Bruins not only with future bets, but if you are

1379
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:35,080
Speaker 1: in playoff pools, then you got to kind of stack

1380
01:06:35,120 --> 01:06:38,480
Speaker 1: a team. Whether it's a fantasy playoff pool or one

1381
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 1: where you're just filling out a bracket, you'll probably so

1382
01:06:41,680 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 1: many people will get backing the Avs and the Panthers

1383
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:45,440
Speaker 1: that the Bruins can give you a little bit of

1384
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:48,680
Speaker 1: contrarian value. And I think if Boston does make a run.

1385
01:06:48,760 --> 01:06:51,000
Speaker 1: Patrese Burr's around at sixty to one Charlie McAvoy one

1386
01:06:51,040 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 1: hundred to one are both interesting. I'm definitely going to

1387
01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:56,760
Speaker 1: bet McAvoy, definitely going to bet Crosby, and then for

1388
01:06:56,840 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 1: the Blues another team that I think has high ceiling

1389
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:01,720
Speaker 1: pavel but which one hundred to one, joining Cairo one

1390
01:07:01,760 --> 01:07:04,320
Speaker 1: hundred and one. I'll probably be backing those two because,

1391
01:07:04,480 --> 01:07:06,360
Speaker 1: like the Bruins, if you want to go into the

1392
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:08,680
Speaker 1: Western Conference and pick a team that just gives you

1393
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:11,680
Speaker 1: some contrarian value, the Blues and one other guy who

1394
01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:14,560
Speaker 1: I think this one because this is a team that

1395
01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:16,840
Speaker 1: is a likely winner of the Stanley Cup, not the

1396
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 1: most likely, but the Calgary Flames, one of the best

1397
01:07:19,240 --> 01:07:22,560
Speaker 1: three teams in the NHL. Andrew Mandrea Pane. He had

1398
01:07:22,600 --> 01:07:24,960
Speaker 1: thirty five goals this season, second line player behind that

1399
01:07:25,000 --> 01:07:27,560
Speaker 1: top line, so if that top line, they'll be dealing

1400
01:07:27,600 --> 01:07:30,760
Speaker 1: with the number one assignment on defense every night. Mandrey

1401
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:34,320
Speaker 1: Pane has that like Ruslan Fete, Tanco, Brad Richards appealed

1402
01:07:34,320 --> 01:07:36,160
Speaker 1: to him. He's one hundred and thirty to one, So

1403
01:07:36,200 --> 01:07:38,440
Speaker 1: that's kind of my short list. I'm definitely gonna bet McAvoy.

1404
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna bet Mandya pane a one hundred thirty one,

1405
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:46,160
Speaker 1: and I'm very likely to bet Crosby fifty and busnevitch Nick.

1406
01:07:46,520 --> 01:07:47,360
Speaker 1: Who do you got?

1407
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:49,600
Speaker 3: So my first one for a lot of the same

1408
01:07:49,640 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 3: reasons that you went through, And I would just always

1409
01:07:53,280 --> 01:07:56,320
Speaker 3: play this before the Rangers out were just Stirkin plus

1410
01:07:56,360 --> 01:07:58,880
Speaker 3: three thousand. I don't think they can win the Cup

1411
01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 3: without him the consmite. So I think this is just

1412
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:03,560
Speaker 3: a perfect example of exactly what you want to look

1413
01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:06,960
Speaker 3: for when you make a consmick. That not that I

1414
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:09,400
Speaker 3: entirely love the Rangers chances, but I think better than

1415
01:08:09,440 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 3: thirty to one. And yeah, I think you kind of

1416
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:15,200
Speaker 3: commented on it, but on some of the true top teams,

1417
01:08:15,280 --> 01:08:17,639
Speaker 3: I think one thing to be careful for or careful

1418
01:08:17,640 --> 01:08:20,080
Speaker 3: about is there are multiple guys that could win it,

1419
01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:22,760
Speaker 3: Like I think the Panthers. Obviously it would have been

1420
01:08:22,840 --> 01:08:25,799
Speaker 3: Huberto in the regular season, but to see Barkoff post

1421
01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 3: comparable production and more people realize that he's actually probably

1422
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:33,519
Speaker 3: more important to the team is definitely something I think

1423
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:35,640
Speaker 3: we could see it happen. So I think things like

1424
01:08:35,680 --> 01:08:37,280
Speaker 3: that to look out for. Same thing you said with

1425
01:08:37,320 --> 01:08:39,559
Speaker 3: the Avs, I think macarr would have been their regular

1426
01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:42,840
Speaker 3: season MVP if not for maybe nasm Kakadrick.

1427
01:08:43,240 --> 01:08:44,080
Speaker 1: So yeah, I just.

1428
01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:47,120
Speaker 3: Think those examples aren't as good. But I love Shasturkin

1429
01:08:47,320 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 3: at plus three thousand on the Rangers. That would be

1430
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:50,920
Speaker 3: the only one I would add.

1431
01:08:51,080 --> 01:08:54,200
Speaker 1: Any sleepers coming from you, Pete, I do think there

1432
01:08:54,240 --> 01:08:55,639
Speaker 1: are a couple out there.

1433
01:08:55,720 --> 01:08:57,400
Speaker 4: I mean, like, at the beginning of the season, I

1434
01:08:57,600 --> 01:09:00,120
Speaker 4: picked McKinnon because I felt like it was just going

1435
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:04,679
Speaker 4: to be like breakthrough moment for the Avs. He's most

1436
01:09:04,800 --> 01:09:07,000
Speaker 4: likely to win it from that team. I agree with

1437
01:09:07,040 --> 01:09:08,840
Speaker 4: what you said though about there are a couple other

1438
01:09:08,880 --> 01:09:11,280
Speaker 4: guys that could see winning it. You know, if k

1439
01:09:11,280 --> 01:09:15,400
Speaker 4: Cadrey somehow has a ridiculous playoffs I wouldn't rule him out.

1440
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:18,439
Speaker 4: And Kadri two years ago when they went two rounds

1441
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 4: and lost in Game seven to the Stars. Go back

1442
01:09:21,400 --> 01:09:23,800
Speaker 4: and look at Cadrey's playoff stats that year, what he

1443
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:25,720
Speaker 4: was doing on the power play and stuff like that.

1444
01:09:25,840 --> 01:09:28,320
Speaker 4: So we've never seen what we saw from Kadri in

1445
01:09:28,320 --> 01:09:31,439
Speaker 4: the regular season, but we actually did see some elite

1446
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:34,599
Speaker 4: production from from Cadre and he is in a contract

1447
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:37,599
Speaker 4: year so there's a you know, really good storyline there

1448
01:09:37,640 --> 01:09:40,760
Speaker 4: as well, with what the second line ripple effect of

1449
01:09:40,840 --> 01:09:44,879
Speaker 4: that Eric Hawla line change in the middle of the season.

1450
01:09:45,000 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 4: I think that, and I think Posternak, if he really

1451
01:09:47,960 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 4: pops off, has that allure that few other players have

1452
01:09:52,240 --> 01:09:54,839
Speaker 4: in the entire league. So you know, if the Bruins

1453
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:56,800
Speaker 4: are going to make a deep run, it's probably going

1454
01:09:56,840 --> 01:10:00,439
Speaker 4: to be because of their secondary scoring and Pasternak has

1455
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:03,400
Speaker 4: that flare that could you know, make him a fan

1456
01:10:03,560 --> 01:10:07,080
Speaker 4: favorite across the league if they do make a run

1457
01:10:07,160 --> 01:10:10,040
Speaker 4: like that. As far as the Edmonton guys, I just

1458
01:10:10,080 --> 01:10:13,960
Speaker 4: don't see them going much deeper than maybe a playoff

1459
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:18,280
Speaker 4: series win against the LA Kings. So it's hard to

1460
01:10:18,320 --> 01:10:22,200
Speaker 4: dismiss players like Conor McDavid and Leon Dreyseattle, but those

1461
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:24,639
Speaker 4: are probably going to be a fade for most people.

1462
01:10:25,439 --> 01:10:28,920
Speaker 4: If the Minnesota Wild, you know, become a sleeper, like

1463
01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:32,479
Speaker 4: I mentioned earlier, it's probably going to be either Kevin

1464
01:10:32,520 --> 01:10:36,280
Speaker 4: Fiala or Careel Caprizov. I guess it could be Mark

1465
01:10:36,360 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 4: Andre Flurry, but those are some you know, kind of

1466
01:10:39,040 --> 01:10:41,880
Speaker 4: like what you said about the Eastern Conference and looking

1467
01:10:41,920 --> 01:10:44,479
Speaker 4: at McAvoy and if the Bruins are able to make

1468
01:10:44,479 --> 01:10:47,439
Speaker 4: a deep run. Same goes for the Minnesota Wild and

1469
01:10:47,479 --> 01:10:53,160
Speaker 4: those three players, including the goaltender Flurry, and then you know,

1470
01:10:53,439 --> 01:10:56,360
Speaker 4: you go really deep down. I mean, I see, like

1471
01:10:56,520 --> 01:11:01,200
Speaker 4: Claude dru was acquired at the trade deadline. If he

1472
01:11:01,360 --> 01:11:05,880
Speaker 4: overcomes his past playoff failures with the Flyers and really

1473
01:11:06,040 --> 01:11:09,480
Speaker 4: explodes with the Florida Panthers, he could enter that conversation

1474
01:11:09,560 --> 01:11:11,080
Speaker 4: as well. I don't know if he would win it,

1475
01:11:11,880 --> 01:11:15,280
Speaker 4: but I could. I could envision a scenario where his

1476
01:11:15,479 --> 01:11:19,200
Speaker 4: impact on the Panthers is so far reaching and if

1477
01:11:19,240 --> 01:11:21,640
Speaker 4: he really lights up the scoreboard and like something like

1478
01:11:21,720 --> 01:11:24,880
Speaker 4: leads the playoffs and scoring or something, there could be

1479
01:11:24,920 --> 01:11:29,760
Speaker 4: a window for Claude Dreu to cash in after being

1480
01:11:29,800 --> 01:11:34,519
Speaker 4: the biggest trade deadline mover. And Flurry's another trade deadline mover,

1481
01:11:34,720 --> 01:11:37,080
Speaker 4: so we don't always see a guy moved at the deadline.

1482
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:39,639
Speaker 4: That would be in the con smythe conversation, right guys.

1483
01:11:39,680 --> 01:11:43,960
Speaker 4: So whether it's Flurry or Deru, that's a real storyline

1484
01:11:43,960 --> 01:11:45,120
Speaker 4: to consider, And.

1485
01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:47,280
Speaker 1: It brings up the point that who's voting on these

1486
01:11:47,280 --> 01:11:49,960
Speaker 1: awards right, Like it's it's it's not an objective thing.

1487
01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:52,479
Speaker 1: It's a subjective thing. If Claude Drew, if the Panthers

1488
01:11:52,520 --> 01:11:54,320
Speaker 1: win the Stanley Cup and Claude Jeru is up there

1489
01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:57,599
Speaker 1: with Barkov and Uberdeau first of all, those those two

1490
01:11:57,600 --> 01:12:00,240
Speaker 1: other guys are got to be campaigning for Jeru basically,

1491
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:04,520
Speaker 1: and we'll see people really fall in love with that storyline.

1492
01:12:04,960 --> 01:12:06,639
Speaker 1: So it's not a bad bet at all, I think,

1493
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:08,240
Speaker 1: I think you know you touched on it with Paster,

1494
01:12:08,400 --> 01:12:10,639
Speaker 1: not two of the Bruins. There was just so many

1495
01:12:10,680 --> 01:12:13,960
Speaker 1: big prices next to some of these guys Pasternach, marsh

1496
01:12:14,040 --> 01:12:16,960
Speaker 1: and Bergier on McAvoy, you can't really go wrong with

1497
01:12:17,200 --> 01:12:19,200
Speaker 1: betting one like it'll be one of that four in

1498
01:12:19,520 --> 01:12:21,799
Speaker 1: all likelihood if they win. I mean, you can maybe

1499
01:12:21,880 --> 01:12:24,920
Speaker 1: make a case for Taylor Hall if he truly has

1500
01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:28,440
Speaker 1: outstanding playoff front, which he could, especially playing alongside Pasternach.

1501
01:12:28,479 --> 01:12:32,599
Speaker 1: But those those numbers are really really enticing here, all right, Nick,

1502
01:12:32,640 --> 01:12:33,840
Speaker 1: got anything else you want to.

1503
01:12:33,760 --> 01:12:37,280
Speaker 3: Touch on before my last just to kind of piggyback

1504
01:12:37,320 --> 01:12:41,160
Speaker 3: on what Pete said, Like with the Drew narrative, it is,

1505
01:12:41,800 --> 01:12:43,559
Speaker 3: I think it is good to note that it's kind

1506
01:12:43,560 --> 01:12:48,120
Speaker 3: of narrative narrative driven. I think the one Crosby cons

1507
01:12:48,240 --> 01:12:51,320
Speaker 3: might Kessel probably did all he possibly could to make

1508
01:12:51,360 --> 01:12:54,559
Speaker 3: it close, and the vote wasn't that close, So I

1509
01:12:54,600 --> 01:12:56,760
Speaker 3: think sometimes you're always going to see some leniency to

1510
01:12:56,760 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 3: the right spots. I think the same thing in Washington,

1511
01:13:00,000 --> 01:13:02,720
Speaker 3: and Kuznetsov did all he possibly could and he was

1512
01:13:02,760 --> 01:13:05,360
Speaker 3: still second in the vote by a decent margin. So

1513
01:13:05,479 --> 01:13:07,080
Speaker 3: I think that is one thing to keep in mind,

1514
01:13:07,360 --> 01:13:09,559
Speaker 3: and then one thing that I'll not since I did

1515
01:13:09,680 --> 01:13:13,759
Speaker 3: just look, I think punting on kuznet saw one hundred

1516
01:13:13,760 --> 01:13:15,640
Speaker 3: and thirty to one. You could do worse than that

1517
01:13:15,680 --> 01:13:17,639
Speaker 3: if you were going to back the Caps in some way,

1518
01:13:17,680 --> 01:13:20,000
Speaker 3: because he is He's been their best player this season.

1519
01:13:20,080 --> 01:13:21,400
Speaker 1: I don't know why.

1520
01:13:21,280 --> 01:13:25,519
Speaker 3: Everyone hates him on this team because I think he's

1521
01:13:25,600 --> 01:13:28,439
Speaker 3: carried so much more of the weight than probably anyone credits.

1522
01:13:28,760 --> 01:13:31,720
Speaker 3: And I personally, if they were to make it run,

1523
01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:33,920
Speaker 3: it would have to be him driving a bus, I think.

1524
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:35,880
Speaker 3: But that's probably a bit of a homework take.

1525
01:13:37,040 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 1: But anyways, you're allowed one per podcasts. For sure. There

1526
01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:43,240
Speaker 1: are no Islanders around, so I can't make one for myself.

1527
01:13:43,400 --> 01:13:44,920
Speaker 1: I will say that though we'll be betting them to

1528
01:13:44,920 --> 01:13:47,360
Speaker 1: win the Stanley Cup next year. On that note, we'll

1529
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:51,160
Speaker 1: wrap up the Stanley Cup playoff preview episode of the

1530
01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:54,639
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast for Nick was Martin and Pete Jensen.

1531
01:13:54,840 --> 01:13:57,360
Speaker 1: We wish you the best of luck the next few months.

1532
01:13:57,360 --> 01:14:05,680
Speaker 1: Here people do didn't