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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview

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Speaker 3: presented by DraftKings. I'm your host Shaan Zerrilla Joy today

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Speaker 3: by Billy Ward to help you break down the thirteen

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Speaker 3: fight card for UFC Mexico City to your best bets,

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Speaker 3: favorite underdogs, top props, and more.

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Speaker 4: If you'd like to.

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Speaker 3: Tell us what the bests that we discussed on today's show,

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Speaker 3: make sure to find the clicks sup link both in

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Speaker 3: the podcast and the video of description, or visit Action

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Speaker 3: network dot com slash bet now. Thirteen fight card at

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Speaker 3: Preliums five pm Main card, six fight Main card nine

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Speaker 3: pm from Arena CDMX or the Mexico City Arena in

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Speaker 3: c DOT, Mexico. The main event Brandon Marino about minus

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Speaker 3: two twenty going up against the loan air Kavanaugh plus

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Speaker 3: one eighty short notice replacement in place about Sue Almabayah

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Speaker 3: of five round flyweight bout currently Juice minus won forty

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Speaker 3: to the over four and a half rounds plus one

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Speaker 3: ten to the under If this was a normal full

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Speaker 3: training camp for Lonnie Kavanaugh if we had seen him

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Speaker 3: at five rounds previously, even coming in on short notice,

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Speaker 3: if if, if, if, this would be a normally sized

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Speaker 3: bet for me. Model still likes him, makes him about

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Speaker 3: plus one thirty five. Everybody in the world publicly on

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Speaker 3: Brandon Moreno this week. It seems like, you know the

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Speaker 3: spot that would be set up for him to get

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Speaker 3: him back in.

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Speaker 2: The win column.

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Speaker 3: But I was against him in his last fight with

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Speaker 3: Tatsira Tira. I think he's looked like a lesser version

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Speaker 3: of himself in his recent fights. He's had a number

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Speaker 3: of fights at flyweight, and I just think he's on

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Speaker 3: the wrong side of the divisional age curve at flywaight.

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Speaker 3: The caveats about Lannie obviously, the short notice replacement angle,

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Speaker 3: the fighting at elevation and in five rounds for the

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Speaker 3: first time, angle up at seventy four hundred feet of

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Speaker 3: elevation in Mexico City, definitely a significant concern the longer

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Speaker 3: this fight goes, especially in light of the fact that

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Speaker 3: his last bat against Gels Johnson dominated the first round,

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Speaker 3: was minus nine hundred on the money line after the

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Speaker 3: first round, and seemingly slowed and then got kot in

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Speaker 3: the second round. I don't know if he took a

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Speaker 3: body shot and started slowing from that, if he is tired,

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Speaker 3: you know, naturally as a result of not being in shape,

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Speaker 3: or maybe he took some damage to his body that

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Speaker 3: caused him to slow. Curious what your takeaway is on

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Speaker 3: what led to that knockout, Billy, But just in August,

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Speaker 3: so not.

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Speaker 2: Like it's been a significant amount of time. It's not

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Speaker 2: like he took a year off.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's only been about six months off or

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Speaker 3: so since that knockout. But I do think he will

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Speaker 3: be the faster striker than Brandon Marino early. I think

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Speaker 3: he's very talented. I think this guy has all the

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Speaker 3: makings of a future champion, which is a very awkward

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Speaker 3: spot to throw him into, especially given the elevation factor. Now,

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Speaker 3: what I did want to point out, Billy, and what

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Speaker 3: I want to kind of contextualize the rest of the

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Speaker 3: card with is the stats about Mexico City. You know,

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Speaker 3: going up at elevation, we would assume there'd be a

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Speaker 3: lot more second, third round finishes as a result of

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Speaker 3: these fighters tiring out. The finish rate in Mexico City

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Speaker 3: across the past seventy eight fights, which I believe is

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Speaker 3: six cards, seven cards, just thirty two percent. Thirty two

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Speaker 3: percent finish rate across seventy eight fights. Now obviously not

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Speaker 3: a substantial sample, but we've seen far fewer finishes than

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Speaker 3: we would expect. Fourteen of those twenty five finishes occurring

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Speaker 3: in round one, so actually a little bit overweight to

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Speaker 3: round one from what we would normally expect. And I

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Speaker 3: guess the small takeaway you could take from that data

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Speaker 3: would be the fighters are kind of gassing out early

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Speaker 3: and then not able to finish one another and act totally.

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Speaker 3: I have kind of noticed that watching some of these

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Speaker 3: fights where you know, the guys who you would think

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Speaker 3: at finishing upside or fighters I bet to win inside

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Speaker 3: the distance if they don't get it done in the

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Speaker 3: first round, it seems like it's not materializing and that

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Speaker 3: boat fighters are sort of eventually hiring out, not just

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Speaker 3: the one you would expect to. So, having said all

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Speaker 3: of that, Billy, I know you're targeting Lonnie Kavanaugh early

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Speaker 3: in this fight, Brandon Marino live and late. So what

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Speaker 3: are you actually planning on betting for this fight?

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Speaker 2: Pre fight?

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Speaker 3: Obviously targeting Brandon Marino live, but then also wanted to

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Speaker 3: get your takeaway as well on what you thought like

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Speaker 3: to the finish in capitalls last fight.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, a lot of interesting points there. As far as

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Speaker 5: the stats, that actually does kind of make sense to me.

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Speaker 5: We used to always joke about heavyweights that they would

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Speaker 5: either get a finish in the first round or just

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Speaker 5: lean on each other for three rounds. That was the

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Speaker 5: joke about like local or amateur heavyweights. Now it's just

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Speaker 5: all heavyweights, right, because they're not like the guy in

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Speaker 5: the UFC Now most of the heavyweight division passes for

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Speaker 5: regional competitors ten or fifteen years ago. But it's exactly

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Speaker 5: what you said, if we both get tired, I can't

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Speaker 5: finish you. I mean, it's that elevation turns everyone to

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Speaker 5: tie to Yvasa versus tell Us and Tekshera where we're

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Speaker 5: both just like not really able to do enough to

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Speaker 5: put the other guy away. And unless one guy has

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Speaker 5: considerably better cardio, then I can see why we don't

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Speaker 5: see a lot of those late finishes. As far as

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Speaker 5: the finish, I think he got tired from grappling because

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Speaker 5: in the first round he was beating Johnson up on

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Speaker 5: the feet and looking really good. Fine came out second round,

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Speaker 5: more of the same, and he almost wanted to like

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Speaker 5: prove a point because he was getting a bunch of takedowns,

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Speaker 5: but they were all high amplitude takedowns, and then Charles

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Speaker 5: Johnson popped right back up and he just I think

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Speaker 5: he just tucked himself out with the grappling, which, for me,

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Speaker 5: if I'm Brandon Moreno, I'm going to force that grappling

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Speaker 5: as much as I can to try to see if

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Speaker 5: you know, some guys are just more comfortable. Some guys

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Speaker 5: can strike all day, some guys can grapple forever. Rarely

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Speaker 5: can people do both. And I think Kavanaugh could probably

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Speaker 5: kickbox with you for seven or eight rounds and look great,

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Speaker 5: but in the third or fourth round of a you know,

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Speaker 5: jiu jitsu session might be sucking air. He's just more

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Speaker 5: comfortable with his karate background on the feet. So because

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Speaker 5: of that, the live angle on Moreno for me, is

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Speaker 5: going to be really heavily dependent on when and if

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Speaker 5: we see some grappling out of either guy. Really, because

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Speaker 5: I don't think defensive or offensive from Kavanaugh matters so much.

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Speaker 5: I'm not as worried about it being short noticed because

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Speaker 5: he was already booked for a fight two weeks after this,

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Speaker 5: so he moved it up a little bit. Not ideal

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Speaker 5: but not huge. But yeah, seven thousand feet elevation for

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Speaker 5: your first drive round fight against a guy who's fought

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Speaker 5: five round fights for five years consistently. Not a great

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Speaker 5: starting point, but like you, I was leaning towards Kavanaugh.

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Speaker 5: I think there is some loss from Moreno. Combining both

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Speaker 5: of those ideas. Lonnie in the first three rounds is

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Speaker 5: plus six fifty if you can get one of those

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Speaker 5: split props. Could also probably play with some sgps and

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Speaker 5: maybe get a slightly better line if you cut off

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Speaker 5: a few minutes at the end of that.

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Speaker 4: I really like that as an angle. I just see

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Speaker 4: him fading.

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Speaker 5: But if I think he's gonna win and don't think

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Speaker 5: he'll do well down the stretch, logically, that's what leaves

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Speaker 5: me with. And again, you know, Moreno in the four

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Speaker 5: or five decision is only plus one ten. I think

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Speaker 5: we probably get a better live price on him at

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Speaker 5: some point, or he wins in the first three round

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Speaker 5: and that bet would have lost anyway. So I'm looking

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Speaker 5: for some kind of grappling exchange no matter who wins

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Speaker 5: it to them jump in on Moreno because I think

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Speaker 5: that's when we're going to see Kavanaugh fade. But if

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Speaker 5: it's one one after two and Moreno looks fresh and

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Speaker 5: he's still minus one eighty, minus two hundred or whatever,

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Speaker 5: I'm fine with jumping in on that. Obviously, we always

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Speaker 5: want a better price than we want a more tired fighter.

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Speaker 4: If we can get both those things.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the most noticeable thing across the past

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Speaker 3: three or so fights Moreno has been the I mean,

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Speaker 3: he wasn't going to proactively grapple against Tyro, but against

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Speaker 3: Steve verseeg. You know, he really didn't press on the

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Speaker 3: gas pedal in terms of proactively grappling him. They ended

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Speaker 3: up fighting to a pretty close decision that Moreno won,

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Speaker 3: but Urseg actually outlanded him at distance. You know, it

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Speaker 3: was a relatively looking at the stat line, a relatively

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Speaker 3: fortunate decision for Reno. I don't remember the round by

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Speaker 3: round going back in high sight, but.

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Speaker 5: The one picked out might have saved that one, like

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Speaker 5: getting the one take down and the control time might

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Speaker 5: have been with and like, just do more of that

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Speaker 5: you're gonna do?

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Speaker 4: But I digress.

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Speaker 3: Sorry, No, No, I think that's that's the point, is

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Speaker 3: if we see the same Brandon Mareno that we've seen

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Speaker 3: in recent fights, where he's only going to mix in

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Speaker 3: you know, one or so take down attempt per round.

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Speaker 2: I think Kavanaugh might be the.

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Speaker 3: Better overall grappler in terms of like scrambling and explosiveness,

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Speaker 3: and I just think athleticism, you know, pure athleticism. If

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Speaker 3: these guys are going to be interacting in close quarters,

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Speaker 3: give me a Lanni's speed all day in his athleticism

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Speaker 3: and explosiveness all day.

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Speaker 2: Brandon certainly, the more.

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Speaker 3: The more strength the schedule, like, the the better fight IQ,

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Speaker 3: you know, more more educated inside of the actual cage.

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Speaker 3: But the experience only goes so far when in the

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Speaker 3: early minutes one guy has a.

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Speaker 2: Big athleticism advantage.

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Speaker 3: So I think Kavotof he's going to win this fight,

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Speaker 3: as Billy pointed out, either us to finish Brandon Marino

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Speaker 3: probably in the first fifteen minutes, or he has to

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Speaker 3: win the first fifteen minutes or so of the fight

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Speaker 3: and secure those first three rounds. But do think there's

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Speaker 3: some value on his money line at plus one eighty

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Speaker 3: down to about plus one fifty would be a big

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Speaker 3: or bet. If the scenario or the spot We're a

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Speaker 3: little bit more favorable for him. I'm gonna move on

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Speaker 3: to a fight of the night between David Martinez and

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Speaker 3: Marlin Cheeto Vera Martinez minus three h five Cheeto around

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Speaker 3: plus two forty five. Its fandomly about heavily juiced to

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Speaker 3: go to decision minus four to twenty five to the

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Speaker 3: over two and a half rounds. Billy have a breakdown

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Speaker 3: up for this one on Action overork dot com. I

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Speaker 3: don't really have a huge betting take here. I kind

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Speaker 3: of feel similarly to how I felt about the Dan

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Speaker 3: and Ega bet, which did not work out last week,

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Speaker 3: watching Dan Ego get finished for the first time in

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Speaker 3: his career. So perhaps it's an omen that Cheeto Vera

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Speaker 3: is about to suffer the same fate, because I would

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Speaker 3: lean to Cheetoh plus three and a half points or all.

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Speaker 2: I've bet after round one.

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Speaker 3: Cheetoh always takes round one off and then looks to

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Speaker 3: work his way back into the fight, but he hasn't

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Speaker 3: really even been doing that of late. He's just kind

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Speaker 3: of been stuck in first gear throughout the majority of

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Speaker 3: his fights, which has been very frustrating to watch. So

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Speaker 3: if I am jumping in on Cheeto it's probably live

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Speaker 3: or the point spread plus three to have his minus

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Speaker 3: one thirty five. Billy, though, he's going to take the

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Speaker 3: approach that I just alluded to.

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Speaker 2: And fading Cheeto, where you're able to.

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Speaker 3: By betting on Martinez to win the first round, and

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Speaker 3: then he also likes Martinez inside the distance out about

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Speaker 3: plus six hundred is a big heighten reach advantage for

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Speaker 3: cheatoh three each is taller three inch reach advantage. But

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Speaker 3: he is six years older, So Billy, you just think

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Speaker 3: the cumulative damage is kind of catching up with him

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Speaker 3: and you expect him to finally take a vanish.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's what I'm looking at. I mean, Chido got

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Speaker 5: dropped for the first time two fights ago against Davy Figgs,

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Speaker 5: which there's no shame in that in terms of the

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Speaker 5: name Davison Figuredo, but that was Figuredo up at one

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Speaker 5: thirty five, which makes you, you know, former flyweight, big flyweight.

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Speaker 5: But still, and I can't find actual stats on this,

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Speaker 5: but I'd be surprised if he doesn't have probably the

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Speaker 5: most significant strikes absorbed in the division, if not UFC history.

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Speaker 5: He's got two fights where he took over two hundred

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Speaker 5: significant strikes, like six or seven where he's taken over

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Speaker 5: one hundred.

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Speaker 3: Like I think Chris and three fights Chrismy Tina, I

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Speaker 3: might be even with him, but yeah.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, keep giving Chris Mattino and Jose Daniel Funcky cold

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Speaker 5: Madina fights. Those guys will challenge him from a different

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Speaker 5: division obviously, but yeah, I mean he's gonna get finished sometime.

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Speaker 5: Everybody is super durable until they aren't. David Martinez throws

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Speaker 5: everything at one hundred percent power and he jumps around

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Speaker 5: a lot, really good movement, really good power. I wrote

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Speaker 5: pretty extensively in my breakdown about this. I went well

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Speaker 5: over myself in post word limits, so sorry to anyone

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Speaker 5: wants to read it. But he's one of the karate

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Speaker 5: slash taekwondo style fighters I think who does it the best.

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Speaker 5: A lot of times we see those guys carry their

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Speaker 5: hands low and kind of lean back at range trying

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Speaker 5: to avoid damage. He carries his hands like a boxer

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Speaker 5: and he moves really well, and that allows him to

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Speaker 5: not just get teed off on all the time, and

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Speaker 5: it also means he's not just relying on head movement

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Speaker 5: and like reflexes defensively the way we see guys like

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Speaker 5: wonder Boy or MVP. They're so relying on their head

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Speaker 5: movement that when those reflexes slip, it's a bad thing.

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Speaker 5: With all that said Martinez in round one, the point

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Speaker 5: spread that DraftKings is now offering. Love this line from

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Speaker 5: our friends at Draftking. You can do it all the rounds,

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Speaker 5: but it's moved a minus one sixty five. I got

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Speaker 5: it a minus one fifty. Still love that Cheetoh has

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Speaker 5: lost nine of the last ten first rounds he's been in,

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Speaker 5: including fights that he's gone on to finish himself. And

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Speaker 5: Martinez is such a fast starter. His style uses so

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Speaker 5: much energy because he throws so hard and because he

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Speaker 5: moves so much that I worry about him at elevation.

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Speaker 5: Even though he lives in Mexico City, we haven't seen

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Speaker 5: him fight too many extended fights, especially not at elevation

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Speaker 5: that this seems like a bad combination form. So to

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Speaker 5: your point with Cheeto live, this is a great live

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Speaker 5: betting opportunity of Cheeto gets hurt early or something like

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Speaker 5: that and we get a big price on him. But

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Speaker 5: the other one, as you pointed out Martinez inside the distance,

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Speaker 5: that one's more of a sprinkle for me. At plus

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Speaker 5: six hundred. He throws everything really hard, and Cheeto's been

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Speaker 5: hit a lot. Eventually that's going to come to a head.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if it's this fight for Cheeto, but

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Speaker 5: I think it'll be soon. And Martinez seems like a

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Speaker 5: guy pretty well suited to do that. So six to

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Speaker 5: one odds, that's like a ton of unit, two tons

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Speaker 5: of unit for me. Then I have about three quarters

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Speaker 5: of the unit to win half on that round one

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Speaker 5: point spread. And if we get Cheeto at plus four

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Speaker 5: hundred after the first round or something fun like that,

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Speaker 5: of course, that is an evergreen thing. I just said

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Speaker 5: that you could plug into any discussion of any Marlin

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Speaker 5: Vera fight because he doesn't like to fight much in

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Speaker 5: the first round. Sometimes he doesn't fight in the second, third, fourth,

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Speaker 5: or fifth rounds either. Historically he would turn it out

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Speaker 5: though after we get out of the first round.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like he has to or he's gonna

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Speaker 3: he's getting close to getting cut if he doesn't like

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Speaker 3: actually start turning it up in the second and third round. Again,

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Speaker 3: a littlone coming out ready to fight in the first.

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Speaker 3: So I kind of want action on Cheeto here somewhere,

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Speaker 3: which is why I lean to the point spread, but

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Speaker 3: just a bit skittish after that Danny Gay had get

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Speaker 3: Ko loss last week. Billy and I are aligned on

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Speaker 3: a favorite underdog this week. We're also aligned on our

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Speaker 3: best bet for this week. Remember, we come to our

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Speaker 3: bets and we don't discuss them. We drop these in

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Speaker 3: our files separately. So I was very excited to jump

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Speaker 3: into the sheet and see that my favorite underdog, my

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Speaker 3: loan favorite underdog, and my best bet, which is a

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Speaker 3: lone best bet this week, We're already in there on

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Speaker 3: Billy's behalf.

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Speaker 2: Now, we do have a very important nickname.

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Speaker 3: Situation to discuss in this fight with Damien the Bobby

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Speaker 3: Yaga Pinas. Yes, you did not hear that incorrectly. Pinas

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Speaker 3: all due respect to a dude turning to a fighter

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Speaker 3: after growing up with that name. Probably was not the

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Speaker 3: easiest he's taken on our boy, West Schultz, though, Bobby

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00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 3: Yaga about minus two fifty, West Schultz about plus twoh five.

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Speaker 3: Just wanted to express my disappointment if your last name

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Speaker 3: is Pinas not doing more with your nickname. You didn't

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Speaker 3: rhyme it, you didn't make a double entendra out of it.

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Speaker 3: You just stole John Wick's nickname. And you're a dude

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Speaker 3: from the same country as Jersey your rosenstrike. You're not Slavic,

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Speaker 3: So what are we doing with the nickname here? You

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Speaker 3: could have gone with the meanest, the hardest, the uncutable

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Speaker 3: personal favorite that I came up with every UFC nickname

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Speaker 3: ever in the middle of a name or at the

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Speaker 3: beginning of a name. This could have been the first

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Speaker 3: one ever. At the end of name. You could have

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Speaker 3: gone Roman numeral three leg, which would have read out

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Speaker 3: as Damian Penas.

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Speaker 2: The third leg.

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Speaker 3: Go for a brother, do something, Just come up with

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Speaker 3: something better than the Bobba Yaga.

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Speaker 2: Please.

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Speaker 3: But in this fight, Billy, I'm sure we both saw

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Speaker 3: on tape, and I'll get to your nicknames in a

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Speaker 3: moment if you have any recommendations. I'm sure we both

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Speaker 3: saw on tape. Though the very binary nature of this fight.

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00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:46,960
Speaker 3: Pinas has hit extremely hard, but he cannot grapple, and

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Speaker 3: that's all West Schultz is going to be looking to do.

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Speaker 3: So I like west Schultz on the money line. I

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Speaker 3: make him closer to plus one sixty five. You can

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Speaker 3: get him as high as about two twenty five. I

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Speaker 3: also like his submission prop as well at plus four

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00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:05,200
Speaker 3: eighty that closer to plus three seventy. Do you view

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Speaker 3: west Schultz as a likely submission threat for this weekend?

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Speaker 3: Do you see him choking some penas?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and high note there, Yeah, I do. That's a

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Speaker 5: good angle. I didn't think about Party Time West Schultz.

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Speaker 5: Love that nickname for him. If you look at him,

349
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Speaker 5: you'll go, yeah, that's party Time. Like if we lined

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Speaker 5: up every fighter on this card and ask you to

351
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 5: pick Party Time, you'd probably get it right. He had

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Speaker 5: a Suluv stretch on the Condender series, which is awesome.

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Speaker 5: You never see that. Al Joe hit one of those

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Speaker 5: in a grappling match, or maybe it's Chase Hooper. I

355
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 5: don't know one of those super tall, long featherweight dudes

356
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,640
Speaker 5: hit one of those, but yeah, that was really cool.

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Speaker 5: Good grappler, not a great striker, Honestly, Pinas hits real hard.

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Speaker 5: I'm worried Panas is going to blow his load early.

359
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,560
Speaker 5: So I also think Schultz could be a live betting opportunity.

360
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,640
Speaker 5: Panas never been out of the second round. Schultz has

361
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Speaker 5: a decision when and you know, wrestlers have that cardio

362
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 5: to where they can go forever. It's just such a

363
00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:06,560
Speaker 5: much more demanding Cardio's port than striking. To your earlier point,

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Speaker 5: I think if you grow up with the name Panas,

365
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Speaker 5: you kind of have to be a fighter or never

366
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Speaker 5: interact in public again. Like you're you're gonna find yourself

367
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Speaker 5: made fun of a lot. And if you happen to

368
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Speaker 5: be a big, giant, scary dude, and you're gonna learn

369
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 5: right like, you're gonna learn that lesson pretty early, one

370
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,359
Speaker 5: way or the other. I personally like the Bobby Yaga.

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00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 5: I know it's not South American and nature, but it

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Speaker 5: sounds like it should be, Like it sounds Spanish or Latin,

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Speaker 5: and he's from Aruba, so I.

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Speaker 4: Would I like it.

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00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 5: But to your point, yeah, there's many different directions you

376
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:42,360
Speaker 5: could go with that. There were, but I honestly think

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00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 5: it's a great nickname matchup in general, the Bobbyaga vers

378
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,399
Speaker 5: party time, it's you know, usually we get pit bull

379
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,159
Speaker 5: versus pitbulls, So this is a pretty good, pretty good

380
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,200
Speaker 5: one all things considered. But yeah, to your point, submission

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Speaker 5: makes a lot of sense. If he gets hit by

382
00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,359
Speaker 5: pianos early a few times and doesn't die, this might

383
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:01,639
Speaker 5: be one of those where you got to get the

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Speaker 5: live bet in at like the seventy five second mark

385
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 5: instead of waiting till after the round. This is a

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Speaker 5: curtain jerker too, so it's going to be hard to

387
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,760
Speaker 5: like time that, Like, make sure you're sitting down, got

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00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,119
Speaker 5: some books open and ready to go. Not sure that

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00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,479
Speaker 5: I'll necessarily be quick enough to jump on those myself

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00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 5: with the tape delays we've talked about, but it's a

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Speaker 5: it will be a good opportunity.

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Speaker 4: It will be very hard to time.

393
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,440
Speaker 3: Al Jamaine Sterling hit a soul of stretch against Cody

394
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Speaker 3: Stamen to win a UFC bout and the beat. Magomed

395
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 3: Sharipov hit one against Brandon Davis at UFC two twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: I believe there was a third as well, but I

397
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 3: think there's only been three Soulee stretch submissions in UFC history.

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00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,560
Speaker 3: The one for West Schultzen Contender series. I don't think

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00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,160
Speaker 3: officially counts as a UFC bout, but all the same,

400
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 3: we're on the underdog in that matchup.

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00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 2: If you're on Twitter with.

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00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 3: A gradio feature, if you see a bet from any

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Speaker 4: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

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Speaker 3: Smooth On a prop section, We're going to cover a

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00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 3: number of fights here before we eventually pivot to our

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00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 3: one best and final bet, and then one additional fight

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Speaker 3: we're going to discuss. We're going to stay on the

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00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,880
Speaker 3: main card for now though, and go to Daniel zell

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Speaker 3: Huber's about minus five hundred. He's been in that price

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00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 3: ranging loss a number of times against King Green coming

427
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 3: back at plus three eighty. It's the lightweight about is

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00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five to the over two and a

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00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 3: half plus one oh five to the under, and Billy

430
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 3: and I both like zel Huber to finish this fight.

431
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 3: We had different methods picked out.

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00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 2: Initially. Billy likes the longer submission odds.

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00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 3: My projection was pointing towards the KO prop, but I'm

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00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 3: happy to just take the itd odds. I make it

435
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 3: about minus one twelve. I think DraftKings was offering about

436
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 3: plus one oh five. Do show parlay value on zel

437
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 3: Houeber based on how he's fought in the past, have

438
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 3: no interest including that on any of my tickets. Billy,

439
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 3: what did you see in terms of your tape breakdown

440
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,119
Speaker 3: on this matchic with Zelle Hueber has certainly disappointed in

441
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 3: the past, but I think we might both be inkling

442
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,120
Speaker 3: towards this being near the end for King Green.

443
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 5: Yeah, one hundred percent on that angle, knockout is definitely

444
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,160
Speaker 5: more likely. I mean it's more likely in almost every

445
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 5: fight At this point in the USA. We just don't

446
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 5: see as many submissions as we used to. But the

447
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 5: one thing when King Green gets hurt, he does try

448
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 5: to initiate some grappling and kind of dive in and

449
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,880
Speaker 5: stick his head out. We saw him just jump right

450
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 5: into a submission against Paddy Pimblet that was a triangle.

451
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 5: Daniel zel Huber is super tall and long for the

452
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 5: division at six' to one with a six', five reach

453
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,159
Speaker 5: and he's really good at like the front held block series,

454
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 5: Of chokes So dars's anaconda's even a bravo choke here.

455
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 5: And there this might be one WHERE if i could

456
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 5: get some of the books that allow you to pick

457
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 5: specific submissions to combine those all, INTO one i would

458
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,679
Speaker 5: bet ON that i really See zell hubert catching them.

459
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 5: At range green kind of diving in and then getting

460
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 5: his head caught into one of those style of chokes

461
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 5: where he just leans forward kind of gets caught in

462
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 5: some front. Headlock thing so That's why i'm going with the.

463
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,199
Speaker 5: SUBMISSION prop i don't mind the inside the distance. At

464
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 5: all obviously a knockout in that situation is. More likely

465
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 5: on the, flip side you always get that little bit

466
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,680
Speaker 5: of equity of he's about. To Finish bobby green rolls

467
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 5: to his stomach rear. Naked choke it gets graded as,

468
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 5: a submission even though most of the damage, Was STRIKING

469
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 5: so i kind of like submission, for that and it's

470
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 5: six to one instead of saying knockout was about two,

471
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 5: to one not even.

472
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 3: THAT good i think closer to like plus, one sixty

473
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 3: and then the inside the distance is right around even

474
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 3: money some some books that chewe slightly to minus, One fifteen,

475
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 3: so yeah just.

476
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 5: Giving the price discrepancy, There again i'm, with you like

477
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 5: knock out as overwhelmingly.

478
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 4: More likely this isn't.

479
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 5: A card in GENERAL where i feel super great about

480
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 5: a lot, of BETS so i like having more smaller

481
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 5: but high payout options.

482
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 3: When, possible yeah number of heavy favorites on this card

483
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 3: definitely more of a. Propable card we did both pick

484
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 3: out one dog that we liked and again one money

485
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 3: line favorite that we both like coming up in a.

486
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 3: Little bit but the Heightened Reach advantazel huber three inches

487
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 3: taller six inch reach advantage and a thirteen year age

488
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: gap between the pair staying on the. Main Card edgar

489
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 3: chirez minus three twenty Five Against felipe bunez at plus

490
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 3: Two sixty Flyway bout juice at minus won ninety five

491
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 3: to the over one and a half rounds plus one

492
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 3: fifty to the underabout is favored to end inside. The

493
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 3: distance chyro's two years younger also has a two inch.

494
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 3: Reach Advantage now bunez thirty six, years old very dangerous in,

495
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 3: round one but as a result of, the age his,

496
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 3: aggression early and certainly the Elevation In, mexico city his

497
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 3: cardio is going to fall off of a cliff after the.

498
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: First Round where chirez is one of those building style

499
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 3: of fighters who seemingly gains more energy and gets better

500
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 3: the longer. He goes probably gonna get put in submission

501
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 3: danger at some point during, round one may still win

502
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 3: the minutes in, round One and i'd expect him to

503
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 3: take over in, rounds two in rounds three at a

504
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: pretty high clip and likely put buns away in the

505
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 3: second or. Third Round, so hyres round two is plus,

506
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 3: Four hundred round three is plus. Seven hundred you could put,

507
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 3: point one five and point one respectively and hope you

508
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 3: hit on one of those two, round props or you

509
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 3: could potentially go With the shiraz. POINT spread i didn't

510
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 3: look to see what, it is but considering he may get,

511
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 3: you know put in a submission attempt would still land

512
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 3: more Damage than bunez in. ROUND one i like them

513
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 3: to win all three rounds here on at least one

514
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 3: of the scorecards in the, first round which is all

515
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 3: you need to cover the minus three and. A half i'd,

516
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 3: imagine though giving the given the uh the spread that

517
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 3: or given the money, line spread that the points spread

518
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 3: is probably five and a half as opposed to, three

519
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 3: Now so i'll have to check. That Out but shyres

520
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: and a half seven and, a, HALF yeah i don't

521
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 3: think minus can't.

522
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:26,679
Speaker 4: Do that that's not.

523
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,959
Speaker 3: Worth it but the two TO three I think I

524
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 3: think i, was considering like the same Game parlay shyres

525
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 3: in over one and.

526
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: A half i want.

527
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 3: Those first two and a half minutes of, Round two

528
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 3: so Give me shires two three plus four hundred plus

529
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 3: seven Hundred is, billy said not the easiest. Betting CARD

530
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 3: but i think there's a bunch of small prop pokes

531
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: you can take on a bunch of. These, Fights, so

532
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 3: billy did you end up having a reader a?

533
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 5: Bet here, generally speaking on, THIS card i looked at

534
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 5: a lot of. Point spreads they're all juiced like that

535
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 5: because like basically every fight is favored and inside, the

536
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 5: distance which makes the point spread not. Super relevant obviously

537
00:24:58,520 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 5: some of them are going to go to. A decision

538
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 5: i actually thought about tyres by submission because he is a,

539
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 5: fun grappler but that's only plus two, seventy FIVE which

540
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 5: i thought that would be LONGER, against bns so staying

541
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 5: away for that reason that was, My like i'm going

542
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 5: to look into this see if. IT playable i don't

543
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 5: think it is of. That NUMBER if i got plus

544
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 5: four hundred, OR longer I might.

545
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: We're going to move On To.

546
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 3: RYAN gandra i think this is the first or the

547
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 3: final fight on, The Prelims ryan gandra minus six seventy

548
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 3: Five Against Jose Daniel Funky cold medina at plus. Four

549
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 3: ninety gandra has a number of round one, finishes REGIONALLY

550
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 3: and i just need to double Check with medina real

551
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: QUICK because i want to clarify the first fight Was

552
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 3: A contender, series fight but UNDER the, ufc promotion there's

553
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 3: only been one fighter to ever finish WITH an oh to.

554
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 3: Five record this, WOULD technically, i GUESS be oh to

555
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 3: four with Also A contender. Series loss are you aware

556
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 3: of the one fighter with the oh to, Five record, Billy.

557
00:25:58,200 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 4: See i'm punk didn't get that.

558
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 5: Many chances it's got to be some kind of like

559
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 5: celebrity something, like that who has another reason to.

560
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 4: Be there it's almost. A right i got.

561
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 3: No Idea, john alessio he Was a. Canadian fighter now

562
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 3: he actually fought some really.

563
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 2: Good.

564
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 3: COMPETITION uh i mean he also Fought like carlos kandit

565
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 3: and lost to. Him regionally but here was here WAS his,

566
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 3: Ufc Run So diego sanchez and we're Talking Prime diego,

567
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 3: sanchez sorry Lost To pat melitic via, submission First Then.

568
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 3: Diego sanchez he Lost To thiago alves via Decision on

569
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 3: Ortez versus, shamrock three which kind of gets hidden because

570
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 3: it's not A numbered. Ufc card it's one of THOSE

571
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 3: titled ufc pay per view CARDS that i don't know

572
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 3: if those ultimately ended up counting in.

573
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 2: The, one hundred two hundred and three hundred countings.

574
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 3: Or not and then he they ended up bringing him

575
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 3: back two more times and he lost another pair of

576
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 3: Decisions To mark Bochek And. Shane rollers so normally after

577
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 3: four chances oh and four IN, the ufc you're. Done

578
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 3: For john alessio ended up getting, five chances did not

579
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: win a single one of. His, fights now there was one.

580
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 3: OTHER dude i didn't watch the, fight specifically but this

581
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 3: IS what i read, About It. Yoshihiro akiyama he had

582
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 3: a controential.

583
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: With that sexy is. A legend sexyama Also Fought.

584
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 3: Alan belcher he did IT at ufc one hundred and

585
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 3: he actually won a controversial, split decision which.

586
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: Made him one and four IN.

587
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 3: The, UFC again i haven't gone back and watched, that

588
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 3: fight But supposedly sexyama should be the only other guy

589
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 3: Aside From john alessio with an zero to five record in.

590
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 3: The PROMOTION and i say all that to Say That

591
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 3: Fucky cold medina has the chance To Join john alessio

592
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 3: in that exclusive List on. Saturday again one of that

593
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 3: first fight Was the contender, series fight but some history

594
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 3: on the line for the plus four Ninety underdog gandra

595
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 3: favored to finish him in. Round one gandra and under

596
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 3: one and a half rounds in the same game parlay.

597
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: Even MONEY his ko one prop is plus. Three forty

598
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 3: that's probably the Two things i'm looking. At here did

599
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 3: you ever break down or a bet that you were

600
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 3: interested in.

601
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 5: Playing, HERE no i couldn't get to ANY angles i.

602
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 5: REALLY like i Don't love gandra as, A prospect like,

603
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 5: He's fine he's just not one of THOSE guys i

604
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 5: got super excited about watching On the contender series. LAST

605
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,719
Speaker 5: year i, will Say sexy IAmA after going zero to

606
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 5: four could have been or one and four did beat A.

607
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 5: Mere sadala so either way they gave him, another shot he.

608
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 5: Would have he found himself a win. In there don't

609
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 5: think it happens for Funky. COLD medina i believe he's

610
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 5: a practicing veterinarian who like owns his own practice and

611
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 5: just kind of DOES some usc stuff for fun on

612
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 5: the weekends here, and there which. IS fine, i mean

613
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 5: more power. TO him i wouldn't take all that head

614
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 5: TRAUMA if i had another option and it was going.

615
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 5: This way should Also Mention, david martinez an, orthopedic, surgeon

616
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 5: which while being a doctor and IN, the ufc seems

617
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 5: hard and probably. Ill advised being, a surgeon specifically in

618
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 5: a sport where you use your hands to punch other

619
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 5: people in their hardhead seems. Not great but, uh yeah

620
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 5: so a lot of medical professionals on this card in a.

621
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 4: Weird twist this is.

622
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 3: Very, awkward yeah we, need uh we Need the chinese doctor.

623
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 3: AS well i got to get. Her, back Yeah shing

624
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 3: me got to get herself on. This card we could

625
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 3: have a medical clinic in the parking lot and then

626
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 3: they do the fights and get the.

627
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 4: Card doctor just keep those keep those.

628
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 2: Fighters right i've been, to rotating alternate between.

629
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 3: Fights exactly this is some some brilliant game planning we

630
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 3: got going.

631
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: On here should have been.

632
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 3: Consulted, measures yeah it should have been consulted For The

633
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 3: Combined medical EVENT Slash ufc. MEXICO card, i mean they

634
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 3: got to get something done considering the quality of some of,

635
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 3: these fights considering the lines that we have, for These

636
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: including Christian. Canon as he's a minus six seventy five

637
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: Favorite Against. Chris, matinho Yes The, christian canonas who's been

638
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 3: off for, two years lost his last, two fights hasn't

639
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 3: won in nearly, four years is a minus six seventy

640
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 3: five favorite against everybody's favorite Punching B, chris MUTINO who

641
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 3: i believe has been if you look by, the numbers

642
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: you know because Of the sean. O'Malley fight i think

643
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: his negative strike differential remains like minus nine strikes per

644
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 3: minute or something, absolutely Absurd and mutino, we know, has

645
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 3: pace he has a ton. OF heart i actually kind

646
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 3: of like this fight to go over one and a.

647
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 3: Half rounds it's minus. One thirty it's not going to

648
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: be a. Fun sweat but considering THE, ring russ THE

649
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 3: cage Russ, for Cononias and mutino's, GENERAL durability i also

650
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 3: Don't think cononas has like. Crazy power the over one

651
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 3: and a half at minus one thirty would be the

652
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 3: One spot i'm looking the fight also to go to

653
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 3: a decision has slight value. As WELL just I think

654
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 3: i'm scarred, after ah NOT that i had a bet

655
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 3: on it by, any means but Watching herb dean step

656
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: in and Stop the mutino O'Malley fight with like thirty seconds,

657
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: to go when the preceding thirty seconds looked like the

658
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 3: entire rest of the fight that had happened, Before IT

659
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 3: and i don't really know what was different than cause,

660
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: The stoppage, but yeah the over one and a Half

661
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 3: between Mattino and canonia is in a very chalky bout here,

662
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: As well billy another chalk fest any reads or bets,

663
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: FOR here.

664
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 5: I strongly considered, your angle but because of the. O'Malley

665
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 5: fight but then he lost him in the, first round

666
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 5: including against at the time forty two Year. Old guido,

667
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 5: it's like, All right like you don't need a ton

668
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 5: of power to put. Him away apparently did Not Outstrike

669
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 5: guido Kanetti Or malcolm, Wellmaker either so it's not just

670
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 5: the shot O'Malley fight that's leading to the fourteen point

671
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 5: six to eight significant strikes per minute he's absorbed IN,

672
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 5: the ufc which has to be. A record they don't

673
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 5: start counting those till you get. To five, another guy

674
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 5: he might get. To five he could easily get to zero.

675
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 5: And five this will be four here spread across two.

676
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 5: Different stints if.

677
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 3: He, Like.

678
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 2: Yeah i'll get.

679
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 4: Another shot so they seem to love, him too and for.

680
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 5: GOOD reason a lot of times they seem to love

681
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 5: people that you wonder why this one you, Get right

682
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 5: like it's a. Great story the heart and the desire

683
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 5: far outweigh of the talent and, the ability and they're

684
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 5: Not doing they tried to Give Him guido canetti and

685
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 5: that was, Their one like, all right if you can't,

686
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 5: beat him we're just feeding you.

687
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 4: The killers they.

688
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:16,959
Speaker 3: Should put Mutino On Jose daniel, medina's shoulders and they

689
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 3: should get to choose one heavyweight that they want.

690
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 5: To fight there, You, GO yeah i like that something

691
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 5: like that would work for both. Those guys, but yeah so.

692
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 5: WE'LL see i actually really like. Your angle i'll probably

693
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 5: have a small play on. Like that and the ghost

694
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 5: to a decision's, gonna.

695
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 3: Suck though you're gonna havens by decision is also some pretty.

696
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 3: DECENT odds I think i think the gtds around plus

697
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 3: t TWENTY and i think canone is by.

698
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,959
Speaker 2: Decision is like plus. Three fifty it's going all.

699
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,719
Speaker 3: FIFTEEN minutes, I mean I guess mutino could, outpay them

700
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 3: but it seems unlikely that he will pull.

701
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 2: The upset but stranger things.

702
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 4: Have happened and.

703
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 5: We thought every fight last weekend was lined down inside inside,

704
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 5: the DISTANCE and i like none of. Them, did so,

705
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 5: YOU know i know that's not a great our gimment

706
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 5: for a while to bet, on anything but that's a

707
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 5: if you want to have some weird fun like fun

708
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 5: in an, uncomfortable way just that Overs On chris matina

709
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 5: fights and see what, you, get.

710
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 3: Yeah or potentially, you know even the THE stats i alluded,

711
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 3: to earlier with the finishes not necessarily, Materializing late so

712
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 3: maybe maybe the better approach is to take the gtds

713
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 3: as opposed to the juice one And a, half's right

714
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 3: definitely something. Worth considering There are there's definitely FIGHTS where

715
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 3: i view the Dynamic and, i'm like if a finish

716
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 3: here is going to, occur here PROBABLY early gtd is

717
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 3: a better bet than, the over given the cardio dynamics

718
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 3: of these fights and, you know, the elevation that could

719
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 3: potentially be the approach. To take it's just still relatively

720
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 3: small sample under one hundred fights to make that judgment

721
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,719
Speaker 3: off of let's go the fight that's a little bit more.

722
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: Closely lined that's hobvier rais at minus two thirty in

723
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,479
Speaker 3: the featherweight Division Against Douglas silva deandrage at plus one

724
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 3: ninety raises five inch. Reach advantage he's also eight years YOUNGER,

725
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 3: than DSDA who i believe is forty one or forty two.

726
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 2: Years old he also hasn't fought in. Two Years Douglas.

727
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 3: Silvadan drage he's absolutely, jacked up, you know in terms

728
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: of like the muscle on his body and. The physicality

729
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 3: probably some supplements involved. With that but as we've, seen oftentimes,

730
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 3: especially lately these guys who do that to, their body

731
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 3: who continue to look shredded into their, early forties have

732
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 3: cut a lot of weight and their bodies start to

733
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 3: shut down. On THEM and i DON'T think dsda has

734
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 3: ever been. KNOCKED out i believe he has. Been, SUBMITTED

735
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 3: however i do think it's. Eventually coming he's also been

736
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 3: knocked down and bloodied up pretty badly in. RECENT bouts

737
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 3: i think RAISE his ko line about plus. Two twenty

738
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 3: you can get him as high as plus three ninety

739
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 3: to be the first man to Knock Out Douglas Silva.

740
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 3: Deondrage philly do you have any thoughts or reads on this?

741
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 2: Featherweight, matchup yeah a.

742
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 5: Few thoughts he has a corner stoppage Again koder yan

743
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 5: where they stopped after, round too so not technically A

744
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 5: not i mean it goes it would win the bet.

745
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 4: As A kotko dq.

746
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 5: Only forty put some respect on, his name not even forty, One,

747
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 5: yet sean how dare? You also you said two things

748
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 5: that didn't connect them look super. Jacked up hasn't fought for.

749
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 5: Two years he was serving a suspension for performance, enhancing drugs.

750
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: Which is why he wasn't in.

751
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 5: The cage we could see like a late Career vidoor

752
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 5: belfort VERSION of dsd show up here with a lot

753
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 5: of that muscle gone now that it's being tested, more

754
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 5: rigorously and that wouldn't.

755
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 4: Shock me so for all those reasons like, your angle.

756
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 5: But actually what inside the Distance Is xavier reyes can

757
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 5: grapple a little bit more of, a striker but it wouldn't. Shock,

758
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 5: me know he's got eight submissions and ten KOs on,

759
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 5: his record so inside the distance is. VAGUELY close i

760
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,720
Speaker 5: think you just, Played that, But yeah i'm, with you,

761
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 5: broadly speaking not Exactly sure i'm gonna.

762
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 4: Play, IT yeah i just.

763
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: Want to find the wins inside the. DISTANCE odds i

764
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 2: feel like you had to pay juice.

765
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 3: On IT why i ended up going WITH the ko

766
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 3: props since it was a nice round number.

767
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 4: Close to, SO yeah i, mean yeah it's.

768
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: A pretty pretty.

769
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 3: Substantial difference definitely favored to win, by submission.

770
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 4: As submission more likely.

771
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 5: Than knockout so given what, YOU said i think knockout

772
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 5: the sharper play.

773
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 3: One final fight with a very wide. Money, line well

774
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 3: we'll have one of the additional fight section. As well

775
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 3: but another fight the very wide. Money Line That's francis

776
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 3: marshall at minus seven to Fifty Against eric silva at

777
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 3: plus five twenty five feedruary bout over under one and a.

778
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 3: Half rounds is that minus one thirty five number again

779
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,799
Speaker 3: plus one oh five to the under twelve year. Age,

780
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 3: gap marshall the, younger man has the much better, control

781
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 3: rate should be the much better, grappler here kind of

782
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 3: should have the ability to finish this one hourever.

783
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 2: He wants also had.

784
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 3: That very unlucky decision loss Was To myron SANTOS and

785
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,800
Speaker 3: i remember the name correctly, as well where is considered

786
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 3: that he got robbed in.

787
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 2: The Scorecards but marshall should probably.

788
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 3: Rule here, my, projections though do say the over could

789
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 3: be the player or the goes. To decision marshall two,

790
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 3: To three round two is plus, three hundred round three

791
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 3: is plus, six Hundred and marshall over one and a

792
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 3: half takedowns just minus. ONE fifteen i feel like that

793
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 3: is an absolute steal. Over, Price, so billy what do

794
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: you think about that takedown prop over one and a

795
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 3: half minus? One fifteen what do you think about the?

796
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: Late props and then any other betting thoughts for.

797
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 5: You, HERE yeah i love. That takedownline Can't believe i'll

798
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 5: let you beat me to.

799
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 4: That.

800
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 5: One Interesting eric silva also guy pushing forty thirty eight

801
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 5: hasn't fought in, two years much. Older, guy like we're

802
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 5: seeing a similar dynamic in a lot of these fights

803
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 5: where they're set up a. Certain way this is the only,

804
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 5: one where Like the latin fighter is the. HUGE underdog,

805
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,879
Speaker 5: i think maybe not the. ONLY one i don't fact

806
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 5: check me, on, That, right YEAH but i one of.

807
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 5: VERY few i think the takedown prop is probably. The

808
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 5: Sharpest francis marshall was some kind of collegiate or high.

809
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,800
Speaker 5: LEVEL wrestler i don't. Remember, Exactly.

810
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 3: Yeah i'm not even sure if he was a like a.

811
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 3: Collegiate wrestler he just he's pretty adept. At it he

812
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 3: also moved to Att in, miami recently so he's extremely.

813
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 3: Well trained also probably on some supplements of. His own,

814
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,800
Speaker 3: BUT yeah i think this guy's going to continue.

815
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,320
Speaker 2: To improve in. The division should get a.

816
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 3: FINISH here i think it probably comes though at some

817
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 3: point after the first, five minutes we're gonna move on

818
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 3: to our, best bet and then we're also going to

819
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 3: Cover The Santiago Luna angel pacheco fight before we, sign

820
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 3: off but our best bet comes In The alan Perez

821
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 3: Against macy chasson bout women's bandon weight bout over under

822
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 3: minus three forty five to the over two and a

823
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 3: half plus two point fifty to. The under could be

824
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 3: a pretty violent bout between these. Two chests on keeps

825
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 3: a pretty High paced perez certainly capable of finishing a

826
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 3: fight on, the ground and THAT'S what i like her

827
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 3: to do in, this matchup is the secure submission at eleven.

828
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 3: To ONE if i was choosing, A fighter i was

829
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 3: coaching a woman's one hundred and thirty five. Pounds FIGHTER

830
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 3: if i was choosing a FIGHTER and i knew that

831
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 3: my fighter had the ability to arm, Triangle somebody I'm

832
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 3: Picking macy chasson and her.

833
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 2: DIRAFFTNECK first, i mean she's she's first one up.

834
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 3: For me not to mention anytime she's been taken down in,

835
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 3: the past she just kind of lays there and doesn't

836
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 3: show a ton of urgency at getting off of. Her

837
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 3: back so provided she, proactively wrestles and to, this point

838
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 3: that's what she's shown herself. To, Do allen perez should

839
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 3: be able to get on Top of, macy's Chasson and

840
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 3: i'd hope eventually submit her and finish, the FIGHT but

841
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 3: i make her money line closer to minus. Two hundred

842
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 3: it's currently about minus one seventy. AT DraftKings i saw

843
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 3: as low as minus one sixty around the. Betting market

844
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 3: perez is the side, for me but you will see

845
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 3: on the stat page shas own five inches taller with

846
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 3: a six inch. Reach advantage sabilly would imagine you see the.

847
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 3: Same thing initiate, the takedowns get, on top keep, her

848
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 3: there or finish the fight. Via submission where do you

849
00:39:58,880 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 3: like prez Up to and what did?

850
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 4: She, say yes not any taller if she's lying on.

851
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 5: Her back that's the great thing about grappling and why

852
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 5: we're not doing boxing. OR kickboxing i was Very Anti.

853
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 5: AILEEN perez i thought she was just kind of. A

854
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 5: gimmick and then She Dominated carol jos like partially. Via Grappling,

855
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 5: man like that's hard. To do people don't just Take,

856
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 5: down caroljosa hold, her there not, get reversed, you know

857
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:27,439
Speaker 5: just really cleanly win extended grappling Segments Against carol Jose

858
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 5: And aleen perez. Did that she also had to shoot

859
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 5: a lot of takedowns to, get there which, isn't great

860
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 5: but it shows that she's like capable and willing to

861
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 5: stick to that game plan and will relentlessly. Pursue it,

862
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 5: You know morob shoots a ton of takedowns and doesn't

863
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 5: have a great, accuracy rate but he's going to do

864
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 5: that and he's going to make, it Happen which i'd

865
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,919
Speaker 5: like to. An extent you worry a little bit about

866
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 5: the cardio here that kind of leands to your submission

867
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 5: angle Rather than perez. Straight UP but I want press

868
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 5: straight up because, DAMN it i just want a couple

869
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 5: of money lines on, this card and they're hard. To

870
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 5: find in a way you're going, TO play i think

871
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 5: anything inside of minus two hundred. Probably take you're not

872
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 5: gonna have to go that far. For, It yeah I'm On.

873
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 4: Alien perez for all the reasons you said. As well

874
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:09,759
Speaker 4: love the.

875
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 5: Submission prop it's nice to just have one semi close

876
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 5: money line fight before we get to the other Bet

877
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 5: though i'm also betting on the other. Women's fight we

878
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 5: missed that in the prop or the. Underdog section the short,

879
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 5: notice replacement We Have regina Terran from mexico stepping In For.

880
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 5: Sophia montenegro in a, weird Twist Because sofia montenegro fought

881
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 5: On The contender series lost a close split decision in

882
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 5: like one of the best fights of the Year Where

883
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 5: dana white gave them. Both Contracts sofia montenegro was fighting

884
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 5: in that fight as a Replacement For regina terran On The.

885
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 5: Contender series now the shoe was on the, other Foot

886
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:48,760
Speaker 5: with Terarn. Replacing montenegro, either way this fight Comes Against Ernesta,

887
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 5: kara Katy who i've been looking to fade at every.

888
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 5: Available Opportunity kara katy Won Her contender series fight via.

889
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 5: Split decision she has her only win IN the ufc via,

890
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 5: split decision and she has her two PREVIOUS non ufc

891
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,240
Speaker 5: wins also, Split decisions so of her six, professional wins

892
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 5: four of them were. Split decisions she does not pull

893
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 5: away from. Anyone ever she just does a ton of,

894
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 5: high volume very low. Output stuff tarin is a high

895
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 5: level striker. And kickboxer she was actually preparing For A

896
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 5: muay thai fight on this. Same, DATE also i Know.

897
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 5: IN mexico i believe Also In. Mexico city could be

898
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 5: wrong on that. Second detail she's gonna land the. Harder shot,

899
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 5: she's gonna, you know more clearly pull away when she.

900
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 5: DOES stuff i think a better like more explosive. Overall

901
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 5: athlete karakaty is a former swimmer with, great cardio but not.

902
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 5: Super explosive i'm seeing about plus one Fifty on regina at.

903
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,279
Speaker 5: This point we were getting a better Line on montenegro before.

904
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 5: That fell that was my one luck rating pick. This

905
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 5: week so very sad to not get, that one but

906
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 5: kind of any plus Money AGAINST karakaty i am going

907
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 5: to take because she just doesn't do enough to justify

908
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 5: being favored in really any fight she fights everyone super close.

909
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 4: Should have a five.

910
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 3: Entreat advantage em enjoying LOOKING on ufc stats currently because

911
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 3: It has karen listed at four, foot SEVEN which i

912
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 3: know is not. The case she's five. Foot seven that IS.

913
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 3: A TYPEO but i would freaking love to see a

914
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 3: woman's fighter rocking up to the cage at FOUR foot

915
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 3: I Think puja tomar was like five, foot, one right

916
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 3: she was, really tiny but not quite four.

917
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 4: To.

918
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 5: Seven, oh also before we Move, On regina tern's Nickname

919
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 5: kill bill kind. Of fun she has a bunch of

920
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 5: pictures On her instagram of her dressed up was the

921
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 5: Bride From.

922
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 4: Kill bill she sells t shirts with her and.

923
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 5: That motif kind of love that it beats heavy handed

924
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:38,800
Speaker 5: when you've like never knocked a, person out which Is

925
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 5: Ernessa kaera, katy's nickname unless they're doing, it ironically in

926
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 5: which case more power.

927
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 4: To YOU but i kind of got it.

928
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 2: Some heavy handed split Decisions for Ernesta. Ka katy that

929
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 2: is about the more we're going.

930
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 3: To get tara is twenty one, years old so really

931
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 3: interested to see her. PERFORMANCE here i have not watched

932
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,399
Speaker 3: any tape. Of her do not have model projections as

933
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 3: of yet because it is such a short note spooking to.

934
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 5: The point also tried out should say she tried out

935
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 5: FOR The Wwe performance center, as well like in. Between

936
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:13,280
Speaker 5: stuff so she's BEEN a tko company prospect in. Various

937
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 5: ways try to get Her on. CONTENDER series i think

938
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 5: there's like a. Visa issue try to get HER, in

939
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 5: wwe MAYBE. The ufc this one will. Actually STICK but

940
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 5: i think she'll be fun from the Little clips, i've

941
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 5: seen and she throws real hard and just does.

942
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:27,359
Speaker 3: Stuff, interesting yeah looking forward to checking out, her fight

943
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 3: especially if she's gonna be. Plus money i'll have to

944
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 3: run some last minute projections on the math bout and

945
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 3: SEE if i find anything. Worth betting the other fight

946
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:36,839
Speaker 3: that we did not get to you as, of yet

947
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 3: the thirteenth And Final santiago luna at minus six twenty

948
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 3: Five Against angel pacheco at plus four to. Fifty five

949
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 3: this fight is a pick them to the over one

950
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 3: and a half minus one ten to the over minus

951
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 3: one twenty leading slightly to The under luda's innich taller foreign,

952
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 3: treach advantage also a twelve year age gap between. The

953
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 3: pair he's the younger man of, the two just twenty one.

954
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 3: Years old like we just Met, with tarn fewer than ten,

955
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 3: pro FIGHTS but i believe he's finished almost all. Of

956
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 3: Them but checko hasn't fought in. Two years he's never been,

957
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 3: knocked out has been knocked down a bunch. Of times

958
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 3: this should be a high paced War because luna is

959
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 3: willing to put himself in danger in order to land Shots,

960
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 3: to checko though very durable and will throw a high

961
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,839
Speaker 3: volume of, strikes back provided he looks the same as

962
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 3: he did two.

963
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 2: Years ago Before, His leaf so as, A result i think.

964
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 3: This money line could end up looking a little, bit

965
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 3: skewed the model like it's the. FAVORED here i would

966
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 3: probably prefer his knockout, odds though or the fight to

967
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 3: end inside This since billy not really Sure if i'm

968
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 3: gonna end.

969
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 2: Up betting.

970
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:44,320
Speaker 3: This one didn't have any strong leans aside From maybe.

971
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 3: Luna ko did you come away without ay potential?

972
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,919
Speaker 5: Bets, Here yeah i'm glad we're talking about. THIS one

973
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 5: I love LUNA. For dfs it's a REALLY weird dfs

974
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 5: week because there's no, close fight so you gotta find some.

975
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 5: Cheap fighters luna is, not cheat but of the like

976
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 5: for echelon THE nine k plus. Fighters undrafting he's only

977
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 5: ninety three Hundred im pacheco has absorbed double digit significant

978
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 5: strikes per minute Between The contender series AND, the ufc and,

979
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 5: he's also, you know ten years older than his opponent

980
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 5: and has been out for almost, two years which is

981
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:16,879
Speaker 5: the Third time i'm saying that on, this podcast which

982
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 5: is not a, great sign especially when you've been, knocked

983
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 5: down had a little bit more fights in the past

984
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 5: or taking more damage in. THE past i should say

985
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 5: against the twenty one year old Fighter from mexico who's

986
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 5: OBVIOUSLY the a. Side here the nice thing FROM a

987
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 5: dfs standpoint is if it's a high pace more that

988
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 5: they both make it to. The end luna could get

989
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 5: there just on, significant strikes and if he knocks, them

990
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 5: out obviously. That's great, and he's, you know five hundred,

991
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 5: dollars cheaper which is Huge Than christian kinionie is three

992
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 5: hundred Cheaper Than, francis marshall a couple hundred Cheaper Than,

993
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 5: ryan GANDRA and i think just having those multiple paths

994
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 5: to score you have to have is super helpful when

995
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 5: he's one of the. Cheaper two so no bet, for

996
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 5: me but will be A foundational dfs piece because you

997
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 5: can't you can't play all these expensive fighters.

998
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 2: Other, than schultz who are you looking at on the, cheaper.

999
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 5: Side one of the female underdogs for, cash games just

1000
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 5: because those fights are both likely to. Go long good

1001
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 5: good Floor play foltz is a. Big one And, then

1002
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 5: cheeto Even though I'm playing martinez inside, the distance that's

1003
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 5: because that's plus. SIX hundred I think cheeto could probably

1004
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 5: just give you a good floor and maybe steal it

1005
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 5: with the second and.

1006
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 4: Third, round yeah, it's rough like you really.

1007
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 5: Got it Oh, and lonnie we Talked. About, Lonnie OBVIOUSLY

1008
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 5: i'm i typically stacked the, main EVENT but I love LONNIE.

1009
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 3: For GPPs I'M realizing i skipped one of your prop bets. As,

1010
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 3: well actually as we're talking, through that that would be

1011
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 3: Even all rodriguez going Up Against. Kevin borjas You like

1012
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 3: rodriguez to win that fight. Via knockout I'M glad i

1013
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 3: decided to talk ABOUT the dfs PERSPECTIVE because I saw

1014
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 3: borjas there and realized we didn't talk About, EVEN also

1015
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 3: i believe he uh was he a guy who got

1016
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:54,720
Speaker 3: Pulled from tough and they just stuck Him On contender

1017
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 3: series and then he's been Training With. Daniel cormier is

1018
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 3: that kind of?

1019
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 5: His, story yeah he lost a Split To joseph morales

1020
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 5: that he probably should. Have Won joseph morales went on

1021
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 5: to win, that season and then they pulled him On

1022
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 5: a contender series knocked the guy out in. Two minutes

1023
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,439
Speaker 5: all of his professional fights, are finishes five of those.

1024
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 5: By knockouts boras is A guy i actually really liked

1025
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 5: coming INTO, the ufc but it just hasn't worked for

1026
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,879
Speaker 5: him and he, you know his debut Was Against, josh

1027
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 5: van so no, shame there but it hasn't really got

1028
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 5: better as the competition has. GONE down IM And l

1029
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 5: RODRIGUEZ is i think one of the better prospects we've

1030
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 5: seen in a. Long time crazy, powerful striker weird, like short.

1031
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 5: Explosive style he's five foot four with a sixty four,

1032
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 5: inch reach which Even at flyway is, pretty short but just.

1033
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 5: Extremely powerful And then cormye is teaching him to not

1034
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 5: get wrestled, to death which.

1035
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 4: Is a pretty.

1036
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 5: Good combo so. Like him by knockout ANOTHER guy i

1037
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 5: really LIKED. For dfs WHAT did? I say the knockout

1038
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 5: was plus. ONE twenty i think we might see a

1039
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 5: little bit better prices as this one moves around if,

1040
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,760
Speaker 5: you shot but anything plus money for him BY knockout

1041
00:48:57,840 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 5: i think is a.

1042
00:48:58,360 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 4: Sharp.

1043
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 5: Play borjas, oh no we got knocked out on the

1044
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 5: Ground By, alessandro consta, but yeah that'll.

1045
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 3: Do it FOR a uc betting PREVIEW For Ufc. Mexico

1046
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 3: city you Can FIND mercy ufc betting content For both

1047
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 3: billy and myself on actionwork, dot com and if you'd

1048
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 3: like to instantly tail some of the bets that, we

1049
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 3: discussed on. Today's show look for the quips at length

1050
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 3: both in the podcast and video Description Or Who'sit action

1051
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:21,360
Speaker 3: Nework dot com Slash.

1052
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 2: Bet now don't forget to download the free Or WINNING.

1053
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 3: Action networkap sign Up For action pro for immediate access

1054
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 3: to expert picks. And analysis best of us thirty bets.

1055
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 3: This weekend enjoyed, The violence thanks, For listening see you

1056
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 3: back here.

1057
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 4: Next Week.

1058
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 1: Action network reminds you please. Gamble responsibly if you or

1059
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a, gambling problem help is

1060
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one Eight hundred gambler