1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Yea. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg I 5 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 1: have really really been looking forward to this conversation. It 6 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 1: is extremely well timed. I said to our staff the 7 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: other day, Please get Dr kirker Guard Jacob fun kirk 8 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 1: Guard is out of Denmark, where he had significant experience 9 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 1: in their defense sector and has become a required read 10 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: at the Peterson Institute for International Economics on the dynamics 11 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: international relations in the economics of the continent of Europe, 12 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: and we are in need of an update, Jacob. Wonderful 13 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: to have you with us again. Is it a generational 14 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,559 Speaker 1: change in Europe as we see le guarde in vonder 15 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: laden vetted. I mean, I think you know, we do 16 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: have an extraordinary situation now in thousand nineteen, basically all 17 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: the top jobs at the top of the European institutions, 18 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 1: including the European Central Bank, change in the same year. 19 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: It only happens once every forty years. Uh and then, 20 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: of course we have had also a number of changes 21 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: in national governments. Uh so yes, I don't think if 22 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: you look at the age of some of the people 23 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 1: that have been appointed are necessary at generational change, but 24 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: certainly a major clear out of the executive suites. Give 25 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 1: us the kirker Guard meter. It's a famous meter, folks. 26 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: You can see it at the louver. Give us a 27 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: measurement of the kirk Guard meter of the United States 28 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: of Europe. What a phrase from the past. How united 29 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: are the States of Europe? What I mean by some 30 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: measure in the age of Brexit. Uh, They're obviously not 31 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: united at all. But at the same time, I think 32 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: if you're looking at at least the U twenty seven 33 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: or continential Europe plus Ireland, they look pretty good. I mean, 34 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:27,679 Speaker 1: you know, I think the economics there are fairly stable. 35 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I think there is a floor under on 36 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: growth irrespective of what happens to global growth and global trade, 37 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: of somewhere around one point two to one point five 38 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: percent because of more proactive fiscal policies. I think if 39 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: you're looking at, uh, the other major economic reforms in 40 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: a number of countries, I think I'm I think France. 41 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: France is a upward, a positive surprise waiting to happen, 42 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: in my opinion, if you're looking at corporate investments and 43 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: the sort of form a permanent job creation there So overall, uh, 44 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 1: you know, yes, there's a lot of uh, sort of 45 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: theatrical messiness in the politics. But I think if Ursula 46 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: funderline is approved for European Commissioned President in the European 47 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 1: Parliament tomorrow, Europe will have a pragmatic uh new leadership 48 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: team led by her and Christine Naguard at the European Centeral. 49 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 1: Let's try to I was gonna do this geographically, folks, 50 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 1: but I think I'll do it from right to left, 51 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: and the right is the east and that is I 52 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: love this phrase. The visit grade group, which goes back 53 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 1: to tht Jacob kirkert Guard is the only one that 54 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: passed that exam a few years ago. The visit grade 55 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: group is the Czech Republic, Poland Hungary and it's sort 56 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: of a holdover from another time in place. How reactionary 57 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: is that group politically? I think we have to say 58 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: that that is by far the most reactionary group in EU. 59 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: It consists obviously of nationalists in Poland and Hungary. It 60 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: has in it uh nominally and economic liberal but Prime 61 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: Minister Bobbies of the Czech Republic is facing literally hundreds 62 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: of thousands of people demonstrating in the streets of Prague 63 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: against him and and for alleged corruption. So this is 64 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,239 Speaker 1: this is the UH that is a sort of weak 65 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: the weakest link in the chain, if you like, politically 66 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: in my opinion, in Europe, and it's certainly where the 67 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: commitment to European integration is the lowest, as well as 68 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: democracy in the case of Hungary. Would you overlay on this? 69 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: The immigration issue is sort of the first ordered dynamic 70 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: as you look across Europe east to west. Yeah, I 71 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 1: mean I think if you not necessarily, I mean, if 72 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: you're talking about issues like immigration, Uh, these are obviously 73 00:04:54,839 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: and clearly countries that have no interest in receiving migrants 74 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: uh from that come to Europe. Uh. They basically want 75 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:08,239 Speaker 1: to close their borders. If you're looking at other things, 76 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: it's it's not about less clear. Some of these countries 77 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: are quite close to Lettin Plutin. But on the other hand, 78 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: the Polish government is very hospital to Russia. So where 79 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: are they on as a common European foreign policy. UH, 80 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: it's unclear where are they on broader economics. These are 81 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: all countries that receive significant, sort of between two and 82 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: three percent of g d P in annual fiscal transfer 83 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: through the EU budget from the other richer members of 84 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,799 Speaker 1: the EU, and they obviously want to continue that kind 85 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 1: of economic integration. Jacob fund Kuker guard with us with 86 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: the Peterson Institute, where thrilled it could be with us 87 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: with a nice overlay here east west on Europe. I 88 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: want to bring it over to another observation of a 89 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 1: week ago, Jacob, which is the the the more austere 90 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: or traditional fiscal policy is being Yes, obviously Germany, but 91 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 1: even the Netherlands. Give us an update on the conservatism 92 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: financially of the Benelux countries, in particularly the Netherlands. I mean, 93 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: I think you know, Netherlands have had a business cycle 94 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: that is a little out of sync with a number 95 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: of other UH countries in Europe. But they have actually 96 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 1: been doing extraordinarily well UH in recent years and UH 97 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 1: therefore they are in actially better place today and you're 98 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: seeing that the housing market has stabilized, and therefore, while 99 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: they are clearly opposed to the kind of policies that 100 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: sees at Transfer Union. That is very clear. Domestically they 101 00:06:56,040 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: are very uh they're very good, or they are that 102 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: different place in terms of domestic stimulus, and therefore uh 103 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: they being a traditionally most hawkish country, arguably far more 104 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: hawkist Germany in fact. Uh. Therefore, you know, I think 105 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: overall the physical stands in the euro Area is going 106 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: to be a lot better going forward. U, and I 107 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: think we've already seen that. In fact, let's leave it there, Jacob, 108 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 1: thank you so much. It's been too long. Thank you 109 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: for being with us. Dr Kirker Guard of course with 110 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: the Peterson Institute as well. Cities up in the pre 111 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: market by a little more than one percent, breaking down 112 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: the numbers. Taylor Riggs dropping by, shall be doing the 113 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: earnings on Wall straight through the week we kick things off. 114 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: Taylor coming in a little bit hot on fixed income 115 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: markets revenue you thought so far exactly. So what I'm 116 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: noticing here is that the equity markets are new is 117 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: coming in light now. We were expecting that overall, um 118 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: the equity trading to come and light, given that low 119 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: volatility has just been the theme across the board. But 120 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: City Group had been looking to gain market share within 121 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: that equities trading group, so we thought that we would 122 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: hear a little bit of of how they are grabbing 123 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: that from Deutsche Bank. We don't see that in the numbers, Um, 124 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: but we will continue to hear from them. And then 125 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: within the fixed income group, you are seeing it come 126 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: in a little bit better than expected. We know that 127 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: there was a lot of bond volatility at the end 128 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: of the second quarters. You're seeing the second quarter fixed 129 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:36,080 Speaker 1: income numbers come in better than expected three point three 130 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: versus estimates of three billion dollars. Tom, I know you're 131 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: looking at r OE that looks like it's coming in 132 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: a little bit light. They do have an r o 133 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: E expectation of above ten percent for the full year, 134 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: so looking to bears that number going forward. What I noticed, John, 135 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 1: is book value up ten percent year over year. I mean, 136 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: it is a different City Group than what we saw 137 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: five or six years ago. And straight we focused on 138 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: this morning, Tom, is the costs and the cost control 139 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: expense reductions a hundred million dollars deeper than projected. So 140 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 1: trading revenue coming in a little bit worse than expected overall, Tom, 141 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 1: But the cost an expense reduction program. Looking pretty good, Taylor, 142 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: what do we have tomorrow? Tomorrow we have JP Morgan, 143 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: Bank of America, all the big heavy hitters, which is 144 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 1: unusual usually. UM. JP Morgan is one of the first banks. 145 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: This is new. We're getting City Group first. That'll be 146 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: when we really get a big US story and focus 147 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: on the consumer with the big banks. Tomorrow, we're now 148 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 1: go to Kenn Lee on a cfr A. They're at 149 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: a research who's had a little bit of time to 150 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: look at this. Ken on my theme with Taylor, this 151 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: is not Mr Core It's bank of five years ago, 152 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: is it? It's not. This is a more consistent, reliable bank. 153 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: This gives investors more confidence. Um, you know, based on 154 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 1: the performance today, UM, we think it's going to be 155 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 1: one of the better ones in the group. Investment in banking, 156 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: equity underwriting, and equity trading, as you've mentioned, what's going 157 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: to be down and most of this is coming from Europe, 158 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: and City has much more of a concentration outside of 159 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: Europe and North America, Asia and Latin America. So that's 160 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 1: a big deal. And I noticed John and the spreadsheet 161 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: just taking a quick glance at Europe em em e 162 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: A was saggy. I mean everything else is buoyant, not 163 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: surprising your thoughts on cost Control A city. It's coming 164 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: really decently this morning, it is. And and this is 165 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: directly up the strong investment in technology. Uh. They also 166 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: don't have a big footprint in the US on bricks 167 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: and mortars. UM, it's mostly in concentrated locations. UM. It 168 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: is just in a second phase really where they're able 169 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 1: to grow the top line and get more efficient with 170 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 1: a fifty six efficiency ratio in this quarter. So the 171 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 1: big question can going through the rest of this year. 172 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: Surely cost Control isn't a reason to be bullish on 173 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 1: the stock through the long term. Where's the growth coming 174 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: from on the revenue side, Ken, that's the best question, 175 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: because it's really with a lower interest rate environment, it's 176 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: going to be in a non interest in come area. 177 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: So you've got to see a healthy pipeline for I 178 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: p o s and equity underwriting, some pick up in 179 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: equity trading, and of course there's a lot of other 180 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: businesses related to the capital markets, such as security services 181 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 1: and custodial that that are pretty good. So as long 182 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: as the economy is strong, consumer is going to come through, 183 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 1: and so has commercial loans and what what what is 184 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 1: the Achilley on their book dynamic? I mean tangible book 185 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 1: just a rounded downfloaks because there's too much math. On 186 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: a Monday, sixty dollars sixty six dollars now up to 187 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: sixty seven dollars ninety days on. I mean they're building 188 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 1: book every quarter, aren't they? Uh? They are, and and 189 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: this is the equity flow through. And then we looked 190 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: for valuation at a price to net tangible book value, 191 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 1: pushing out all the non cash items. And uh, this 192 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 1: bank and other banks are trading below uh net tangible 193 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: book Why haven't the shares gone up? Then, as a 194 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,680 Speaker 1: broader basis at CFI A looking at all of the 195 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: larger banks of America, if they've underperformed, why they caught 196 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 1: up in the last couple of weeks. I think the 197 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: momentum was the Federal Reserve on the c CAR test, 198 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: which is a return of capital forward for the next 199 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: twelve months. Uh, they've underperformed because of the worry of 200 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 1: the inverted deal curve and the concern that with a 201 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: weaker economy next year, that's going to put rates possibly 202 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: even much lower. Can Lee and I look at the 203 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 1: dividend growth. I mean on the Bloomberg the five year 204 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: dividend growth given the creator that Mr Corbett had up 205 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: a hundred and fourteen thousand per year, that's not a 206 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: legitimate number. Can they do a double digit dividend growth 207 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: or can they do a big double digit day one 208 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,439 Speaker 1: dividends share buy back combination? Yeah? I love the question 209 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: because I think they're going to first congratulate themselves on 210 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: returning six ft billion dollars over the last three years. 211 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: So now going forward, um yeah, I think certainly if 212 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: they can drive the top line a little bit better, 213 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: mid single digits would be fine. Um yeah, they can 214 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: certainly have continued momentum on return of capital. So big 215 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: week ahead for the bank's reporting innings through the week. 216 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: What are you looking for from the other players? Just 217 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: using city is some kind of read across JP Morgan, 218 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: Goldman Wells, Tomorrow Banks America Wednesday, Morgan Stanley Thursday. Can 219 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: your thoughts so Goldman Sachs we think is going to 220 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: do fine. Um, I think they've gained market share, particularly 221 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: an investment banking UM. JP Morgan had a week first quarter, 222 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: So we'd like to see them do better tomorrow, but 223 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: it doesn't have to be out of the park. And 224 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: Wells Fargo um still looking for that big announcement, which 225 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 1: would be the new CEO and a new management team, 226 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 1: but they did well on the c car tests. And 227 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 1: looking tomorrow, if the U S economy is strong and 228 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: Wells fargoes more US centric, that's good for commercial and 229 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: consumer loans. Well kind of think a lot of people 230 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: are going to try and use these numbers to get 231 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: a read on the U S. Consumer. Just looking at City, 232 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: Grood this morning set aside two point zero nine billion 233 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: dollars to cover the cost of saring loans. It's increased. 234 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: City not worried about it. Can you'll read on the 235 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: U S consumer and consumer banking in America? A great question. 236 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: And when you look at city year over year for 237 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: the second quarter, retail banking it was up three percent. 238 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: The card business was up four percent from the Federal Reserve. 239 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: Households are spending more, but they have low fixed costs 240 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: with mortgages, but more discretionary spending is happening. That flows 241 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: two cards, that flows to the city. That's a good thing. Well, 242 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: there they are. But if we look at JP Morgan 243 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: is the American front runner. Where does City Group fit 244 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:11,239 Speaker 1: in five years from now? They're investing in their businesses, 245 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: particularly in the equity capital markets and the international markets. 246 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: It is and and I think, um, the one exceptional 247 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: position that City has is that they have a sleem 248 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: seamless high capability in terms of international network. So that's Asia. 249 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: So you know, when you see the print of emerging 250 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: markets or you see something related to China, they're well 251 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: situated in the other Southeast countries, which means, um, they're 252 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: going to benefit if Asia does well. Kenny and quickly 253 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: here can you say they will benefit most from the 254 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: challenges of Deutsche Bank. I think it's going to be Morgan, 255 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Interesting JP, Morgan, Kenny and thank 256 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: you so much, greatly appreciate this. It's a joy to 257 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: have him on. Right after these announcements, Mr Liam running 258 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: the research shop apps. Yes, sorry, a b M in 259 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: bed pulled back on a ipl that was going to 260 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: raise as much as nine point eight billion UH dollars 261 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: for its Asian subsidiary, Big Big Black Eye for the 262 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: company to give us some of the latest. We welcome 263 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: a good friend Duncan Fox. He covers all things consumer 264 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: products in Europe for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us from London. Duncan, 265 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: thanks so much for being with us. First, just give 266 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: us a sense of what happened over the weekend with this. 267 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 1: I PO. That's not to be now, good for a 268 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: very good question and good morning. I think essentially, uh, 269 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: the initial pricing that they put all the range, which 270 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: is forty to forty seven Hong Kong dollars, just it 271 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: wasn't going to go and it looked particularly high on 272 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: the value way, and if you put it against all 273 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 1: the peers, certainly on on a sort of price to sales, 274 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: it was way over anything that's in the market, and 275 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 1: it was at the top end of a bit dar 276 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: as well. So everything had to go right I think 277 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: for it to be for it to proceed. So is 278 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: this a miss this? I PO? It's quite a failed 279 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 1: I PO. Is this a miss on a part of 280 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 1: the company or the bankers or both? I mean, why 281 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: don't you just dial back to price a little bit? 282 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: I think there's some rules in Hong Kong. I'm not 283 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 1: a hundred percent sure that if you once you've got 284 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: the range, you can't then go outside of that range, 285 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,719 Speaker 1: so you couldn't go below UM. On my initial thoughts 286 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: whether it was probably worth sort of forty billion, and 287 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: when he came in a lot higher than that, sort 288 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,439 Speaker 1: of fifty four to to sixty four billions. So I 289 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: think they just missed. I think the bankers probably were 290 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 1: hoping for a better market than actually has happened and 291 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: it didn't go ahead. That's because it's a unicorn, like 292 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: a number. Lift is, well, how is a B? I've 293 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 1: already a B in BEV? How are they doing? They 294 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: took out Budweiser. Was that a successful transaction? Certainly Budweis 295 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 1: was a special transaction, was on ninety two sixty fous 296 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: and seven, so, I mean the timing of that was 297 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: around the financial crisis. But they've made a huge strines 298 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: with that business in terms of paying the debt and 299 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 1: becoming the global the hemoth that it now is. UM 300 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: certainly that deal has been very good. There maybe some 301 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 1: question marks a deal, but certainly not. Why can't they 302 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: sell Budweiser in Asia? I mean, I mean I understand 303 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,880 Speaker 1: every country, even segments of countries are different. I mean, 304 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney Duncan's never had a genesc Creamele in his life, 305 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 1: which is which is you know, very regional here. But 306 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,360 Speaker 1: what is the what is the the big brand makeup 307 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: of Asia or do they have any presence at all 308 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: actually there than bud Vice is very well represented in Asia. 309 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: On the premium side, they're probably the leading leading player 310 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 1: in that's part of the market. But obviously mainstream beers, 311 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: so be the Snow brand from the China Resources Beer 312 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: Company would be undoubtedly the biggest brand in in Asia. 313 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 1: And I suppose you've gotten people that are not have 314 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,120 Speaker 1: enough disposable income to buy the premium beers. So it's 315 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 1: a long term They've got a very good position. I 316 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: think what they would like to do is maybe you 317 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: make some further acquisitions so they get a stronger position 318 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: in mainstream beer so they can then sell hard and 319 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: stellar art or et cetera through that network. And that 320 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 1: that's what I think they were hoping to do, and frankly, 321 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: that's still there. It's still a long term goal for 322 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: the companies. This is great. I mean, I've learned absolutely 323 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: nothing today except they did not that snow beer snow Well, 324 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: Budwise in cans is the house beer of the swinging household, 325 00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:00,040 Speaker 1: just so you know it is oh please, and the 326 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 1: next question exactly so, duncan I know that they in 327 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 1: Bev's EMBEV is going to use some of the proceeds 328 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 1: here to pay down debt in position there for perhaps 329 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 1: more consolidation of an industry that is not growing. What's 330 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 1: their plan now? I think it will probably be the same. 331 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 1: I mean, there was no issue really with the debt ironically, 332 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 1: although it's it's huge and a hundred two billion or 333 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 1: all thereabouts ninety four, it's fixed at low rates and 334 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: about is over five years maturity, so there really wasn't 335 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,640 Speaker 1: the need to reduce debt per se that the whole 336 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: point of this was about getting potential into Asian APIO 337 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 1: Asian deal and that's not really going to change because 338 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: deals in Asia to take a long time to come 339 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: to fruition. Even the Heineken CRB deal took a year 340 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: to get through the regulatory hoops, and Karlsberg ofvin in 341 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: discussions in Thailand with Saboco's Steak for for over two years. 342 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: So I don't think anything really challenges frankly, just a 343 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,919 Speaker 1: little bit embarrassing, duncan this This has been a very informative. 344 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 1: Next time we'll do this over a case of Jenny Creel, 345 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: Duncan Foxes with Bloomberg Intelligence and Asia Beer. We will 346 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 1: simply stop what we're doing to understand that everything of 347 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg world was based off a select few people, 348 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 1: including Dr Turing. He took his PhD at Princeton and 349 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 1: mathematics of course associated with King's College, Cambridge. But as 350 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 1: Viviana mentioned, that barely describes his contribution and mathematics to 351 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: the United Kingdom and also his social contribution. A gentleman 352 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: ostracized in the fifties, he was singularly pardoned by Queen 353 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: Elizabeth in recent years and I note the leadership of 354 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Brown in resurrecting the reputation of Alan Turning. 355 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: Joining us this warning from the United Kingdom or Alex Webb, 356 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: we can give unique perspective on this in Greg Bottle 357 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: with us as well with BMP Perry, expert in mathematics. 358 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,199 Speaker 1: What does this mean for your world? Actually went to 359 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: the same high school as Dr Turning. It's extraordinary here 360 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 1: his place in mathematics in the Bloomberg world. Yeah, absolutely, 361 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 1: you know his name lives on in commuting through the 362 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,640 Speaker 1: Churing test, but um, which is a way of deciding 363 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 1: whether AI has reached the level yet where it can 364 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: in fool people into thinking that it's human. It's his 365 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: role in the Second War incalculable with the bomb and 366 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 1: then Goliath decoding machine, which was used to decrypt Enigma 367 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: and played a significant role in winning the war. But 368 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: that is of course fed into all sorts of modern 369 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: pieces of artificial intelligence. And I think there's also a 370 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: lot of significant here what imagines for the LGBTQ community 371 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: because he was ostracized for his homosexuality in the years 372 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 1: after the war. I mean ostracized barely describes what he 373 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: went through in the late forties, in the early fifties. 374 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: Alex Webb, I think of Dr alari In taking over 375 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 1: Queen's College at Cambridge, of a celebration of the mathematics 376 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 1: of another time and place. Do you sense a rekindling 377 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom of the innovation from mathematics or 378 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 1: is this just a look back to the past? I 379 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 1: think absolutely the moment the UK, that sort of golden 380 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 1: triangle I think they call it London, Oxford, Cambridge really 381 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 1: at the heart of a lot of innovations in artificial 382 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: intelligence right now. Is a great story that our colleagues 383 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: in Business Week did recently about how um A neuroscience 384 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 1: feeds into a lot of the innovations in artificial intelligence. 385 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 1: And of course the medical schools in those three parts 386 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: of the world are also very strong, so that fosters 387 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 1: these developments. And we're seeing that play out with a 388 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,920 Speaker 1: lot of the big tech firms. Google, for example, a 389 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: quiet deep Mind, which has a very prominent place in 390 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 1: this in this industry, and there are plenty of other 391 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: instances of startups. We're doing really bleeding edge stuff which 392 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 1: is not necessarily being done in the same way and 393 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 1: Silicon Valley, Greg, you've lived this as well. When I 394 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: lecture kids from the United Kingdom are always blown away 395 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: how superior they are in mathematics, particularly first order difference equations. 396 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: You've got a computational degree, you went onto a finance 397 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: degree as well. There's a heritage here. It's going to 398 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 1: be on a fifty pound note, but it's a heritage 399 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,639 Speaker 1: of people like you are living every day. One are 400 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 1: the dynamics of John von Neuman and in Allen Turning. 401 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 1: What do they mean for you in the modern world? Well, 402 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: I think technology is such a fast moving industry. We 403 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 1: see the rate of I T changes over the last 404 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 1: twenty odd years. So I think for someone to for 405 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: their work from fifty years ago to still be impacting 406 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 1: the world today, I think that speaks and its impacts 407 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 1: every day. I mean on a discrete basis, whether it's 408 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg terminal or what you deal with every day 409 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: your massively global bank. It's amazing how that discreet nature 410 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 1: still is with us through all these years. Yeah, And 411 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 1: I think the march of technology is something that's still 412 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: in many ways in its infancy. And we see that 413 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: in the in the way that we use use AI 414 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: use technology increasingly and i'll work, and that's something that's 415 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: only going to accelerate. What was that nerdy enough for you? 416 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 1: I mean, did I really go over the top there? 417 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 1: And honor of balanteuring? Absolutely? I mean your knowledge on 418 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: his biography was quite astounding to think that you realize 419 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 1: he went to the same high school as Alex Web. 420 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 1: I mean that's really where the rug. Thanks for listening 421 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 422 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer 423 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You 424 00:25:51,720 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio