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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. What I think the markets are

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Speaker 1: doing is adjusting to the fact that things are going

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Speaker 1: to be lower longer. Interest rates is going to stay

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Speaker 1: lower longer than people anticipate. Low inflation is very good

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Speaker 1: for facts that has proven to be over the last

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Speaker 1: fifty plus year. The biggest banks are still in my judgment,

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Speaker 1: too big to fail, and if you had multiple banks

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Speaker 1: run into trouble at the same time, they would still

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Speaker 1: get bailed out. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world

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Speaker 1: of economics, finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning,

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Speaker 1: I Michael McKee. It is seven am on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: One pm in Brussels, where David Cameron is still negotiating

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Speaker 1: on an anti Brexit deal. Will get an update from

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Speaker 1: Chatham House today. Here in the US, the political campaign

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Speaker 1: gets no more enlightening. In fact, it gets more complicated.

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Speaker 1: Stan collandar will be along in a bit and this

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Speaker 1: you will want to pay attention to. PwC Energy industry

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Speaker 1: analysts read Morrison on the outlook for industry bankruptcies ahead.

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Speaker 1: We're getting closer to the time when the bank's reset

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Speaker 1: the loans and some people aren't going to be able

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Speaker 1: to pay. Speaking of energy and oil, oil prices are

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Speaker 1: lower this morning. West Texas thirty seventeen is down almost

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Speaker 1: two percent. It's a one point seven percent decline for

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Speaker 1: brand thirty three. And with oil down, you know where

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Speaker 1: stocks are. The stock six hundred is off by four

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Speaker 1: points now one percent, The decks down a hundred and

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Speaker 1: five one point one percent. The foot seas off thirty nine.

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Speaker 1: That's seven tenths. But we'll give them a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a break on the oil question because they're still

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Speaker 1: uncertainty in England about what's going on with Brexit UH.

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Speaker 1: The pound five is lower right now here. In the US,

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Speaker 1: futures significantly lower following yesterday's uh slight sell off s

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Speaker 1: ANDP futures down nine points half a percent a half

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Speaker 1: percent to clide for DOWBT even in futures seventy four

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Speaker 1: points and NASDAC features are down twenty two that's half

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Speaker 1: eight percent as well. The money seems to be going

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Speaker 1: into the yen yen stronger today one eighty two. Albonix

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Speaker 1: suffering not going into the year. Y're a one eleven

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Speaker 1: O seven is flat on the day. It does seem

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Speaker 1: to be going into bonds, though ten year note yield

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Speaker 1: is down to one point seven two one eighteen for

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Speaker 1: your five year and the two year at sixte basis points.

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Speaker 1: The German two year now down to a negative fifty

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Speaker 1: four basis points. So you can see what is happening.

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Speaker 1: Oil is lower, but industrial metals are higher today. I

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Speaker 1: hadn't noticed this until somebody pointed it out to me.

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Speaker 1: Um I mentioned it because you may not realize that

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Speaker 1: in all the gloom, commodities overall are not doing what

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Speaker 1: you might think. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up more

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Speaker 1: than three percent over the last thirty days. Hamsa Khan's

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Speaker 1: head of Commodities strategy for I n G. He joins us, Now,

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Speaker 1: uh we, I mean the story was that commodities were

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Speaker 1: in this never ending slump and dragging the global economy

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Speaker 1: down with them, and it was being led by oil.

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Speaker 1: And oil is volatile, but it's still in arrange. But

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Speaker 1: the rest of the commodities world seems to be flattening out.

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Speaker 1: Have we put in a bottom homes Michael means you're

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Speaker 1: having me absolutely. We're seeing the influence of the pb

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Speaker 1: O C and the ECV stepping in and saying their

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Speaker 1: supporting markets, improving the outlook for industrial medals in China,

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Speaker 1: and we're seeing that reflected in copper prices and U prices.

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Speaker 1: Oil still has something of the hangover, due in part

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Speaker 1: to the big building stories that we saw yesterday, due

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Speaker 1: to the huge inventory levels around the world, and due

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Speaker 1: to the Saudi rush of Venezuela, Iran and Iraq talk.

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Speaker 1: So I think we're now moving into a phase where, yes,

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Speaker 1: there could still be weakness for specific commodities, but as

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Speaker 1: we looked at the broader picture for the commodity conflicts

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Speaker 1: as a whole and the economies as a whole moving

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Speaker 1: at second half during sixteen, there seems to be more

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Speaker 1: for the upside of there is on the downside. Let's

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Speaker 1: take a well out of the question for a moment,

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Speaker 1: because we talk about it infinitem UH, and ask what

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Speaker 1: other commodities are seeing action at this point. I when

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Speaker 1: when you look at an economy from an economic point

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Speaker 1: of view, I always go to copper, and I was

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Speaker 1: surprised to see that copper is generally strong right now.

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Speaker 1: Not strong, I don't want to make that go too far,

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Speaker 1: but has flattened out and is up a little bit. Yeah. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: I think it's um it's an indicative of the huge

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Speaker 1: sell off that we've seen in the last two years

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Speaker 1: that we can see prices for copper creating at the

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Speaker 1: four a half thousand level and still consider that bullish.

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Speaker 1: But I think people are now looking at the level

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Speaker 1: of cast production costs. They're saying before is beginning to

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Speaker 1: be established because we were simply running out of the

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Speaker 1: ability to mine at tour levels, whether that's your high

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Speaker 1: quality um box side or your copper producers simply cannot

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Speaker 1: provide at card price levels. And that sets up a

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Speaker 1: supercycle in the future. And if you're a trader, you're

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Speaker 1: a smart guy. Do you want to wait until prices

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Speaker 1: are significantly higher into dozen septeen mate and then put

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Speaker 1: in your long position or do you want to start

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Speaker 1: positioning yourself earlier? And that's I think what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: in the industrial battle. I have to stop you there

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Speaker 1: and ask you what you said the words supercycle. There's

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Speaker 1: a difference between going up, even a cyclical rise, and

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Speaker 1: a supercycle, which you know we think of as lasting

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Speaker 1: years or decades. Right, So if we're if we're not

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Speaker 1: investing in infrastructure today, it can take us much longer

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Speaker 1: than we expect to bring production dot on line. The

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Speaker 1: example here would be the US all industry in the

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Speaker 1: eighties and the nineties, when we shut in production due

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Speaker 1: to very low prices in the eighties. When we try

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Speaker 1: to bring those US all fields back online and the

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Speaker 1: nineties and prices began to go higher, discovered we weren't

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Speaker 1: able to and that set up the two thousand commodity boom.

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Speaker 1: So we were in the risk of a similar situation

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Speaker 1: forming in the future. Ham's a Cohn with us with

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Speaker 1: I n G. As we look at commodity marks. As

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Speaker 1: Michael said, a contrary to the gloom, Uh, some of

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Speaker 1: the commodities are actually had a pretty remarkable week. Chicago

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Speaker 1: copper two oh seven fifty, of course, breaching two d

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Speaker 1: um a while back. Good morning everyone, Bloomberg Surveillance this

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Speaker 1: Friday brought you by Investco. Don't settle for average in

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Speaker 1: your portfolio to invest go the right approach means investing

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Speaker 1: with high conviction. Find out more at investco dot com

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Speaker 1: slash high conviction. Uh, Michael, what I would see on

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Speaker 1: the screen as a German two year I mean all

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Speaker 1: the yields are in as they were yesterday. On actually

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Speaker 1: the US two year breaking down right now ever so slightly,

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Speaker 1: but the German two years really beginning to make about

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Speaker 1: back towards February eleven. Lows. We're not there yet, but

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Speaker 1: nevertheless there it is. Well, there's a lot of nervousness,

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Speaker 1: everybody says about what's going on in Brussels. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: Caroline Hy'd been very clear, we really don't know when

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Speaker 1: the meeting is. They're trying to give him agreement. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we'll keep everybody informed on it. I's a kind with

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Speaker 1: us again, as we look at COMI I see a

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Speaker 1: soggy nous in oil. Stephen Short with us a short

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Speaker 1: report earlier this week, remarkably ambivalent about which way it goes.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a conviction on oil? I have a

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Speaker 1: very strong conviction that if demand goes higher or persons

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Speaker 1: will go higher, because we talked about over supplying the market,

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Speaker 1: and we talked about a lot of battle if you

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Speaker 1: talk about a lot of stories, and in the short term,

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Speaker 1: absolutely that's going to be to for instance, this all

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Speaker 1: off we saw after view report. But in the long run,

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Speaker 1: we're talking to three months six months if the US

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Speaker 1: equities recover, if the Asian markets recover all is going higher,

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Speaker 1: and I can't be more emphatic about that. What about

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Speaker 1: beyond um oil and gas, because they seem to be

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Speaker 1: writing on supply and demand as opposed to UM demand

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Speaker 1: only in some of the other commodities UM. When you

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Speaker 1: look at industrial metals and I'm talking lead, zinc, UH,

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Speaker 1: that sort of thing, UH is there is there a

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Speaker 1: feeling that the markets are in balance and we're just

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Speaker 1: looking for a renewal of demand brought about by these

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Speaker 1: central banks, or is there a big overhang there as

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Speaker 1: well that's going to keep prices depressed for a long time, right,

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Speaker 1: So that will depend on on the on the specific medals. So,

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Speaker 1: for for instance, with iron or I think everyone's expecting

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Speaker 1: a large amount of supply to remain depressed prices, Whereas

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Speaker 1: when it comes to aluminum, the rest of the world

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Speaker 1: outside of China isn't something of a deficit. So there

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Speaker 1: are opportunities for UH imbalances and supply and demand. And

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Speaker 1: I think what people sometimes overlook is that yes, we

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Speaker 1: have very large inventories, but if you look at the

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Speaker 1: absolute consumption numbers, whether that's the for your copper or

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Speaker 1: for your little we can words very quickly, and we

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Speaker 1: have been If you look at the ELM inventory levels,

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Speaker 1: levels the metal, they've all been trending lower. You're in

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Speaker 1: the trenches on this. How do you respond when somebody

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Speaker 1: away from your strategy bent says we're waiting for corporate

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Speaker 1: balance sheets to clear. Are we seeing national and corporate

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Speaker 1: balance sheets clearing bad will in mining? Is that process occurring? Absolutely? So?

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Speaker 1: I was, I was in I was in Houston talking

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Speaker 1: to someone to be all on gas producers last week

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Speaker 1: I was, I was in Singapore talking to the to

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Speaker 1: the iron norm producers, and we're seeing a lot of

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Speaker 1: companies stepping in to figure out. I think that their

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Speaker 1: backs to the wall. There's smart people to are figuring

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Speaker 1: out how can we survive in a twenty dollar for

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Speaker 1: vowel environment Hams to thank you so much, ham to

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Speaker 1: con with iron U g uh with us, harm to

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Speaker 1: con thank you again so much. On Mike I, I really,

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Speaker 1: you know, with commodities you lose sight because there's so

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Speaker 1: many to follow. Look at natural gas one point eight

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Speaker 1: four six really legging down this week towards Lowe's scene

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Speaker 1: in December. Well yeah, I mean, I mean, obviously that's it,

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Speaker 1: But the fact is I can't say enough, you know, Caroline,

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Speaker 1: I use the phrase messy the indeterminate nature of market

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Speaker 1: action this week, Mike, I haven't seen in ages like you.

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Speaker 1: Really don't even know where different asset classes are going

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Speaker 1: in their correlations as well, and they may even move

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Speaker 1: through the morning. That John Deere headlines, I think really

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Speaker 1: put a weight. Uh you know, we're flat green on

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Speaker 1: the screen. Actually right now futures negative nine, Dow futures

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Speaker 1: negative seventies. John Deere sharply adjusted their view forward this

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Speaker 1: hour of surveillance. Spot you by mansdo white planes visit

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Speaker 1: masdo white planes dot com? Here's Michael bar with headlines.

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Speaker 1: My time. We have to developing news. American war planes

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Speaker 1: have struck multiple targets in Libya overnight, hitting what was

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Speaker 1: apparently an Islamic state training camp and a senior extremist leader.

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Speaker 1: That is according to a US official who did not

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Speaker 1: want to be identified. Supreme Court officials say Justice Anton

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Speaker 1: and Scalia's casket will arrive this morning to be carried

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Speaker 1: up the court steps to the Great Hall, where it

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Speaker 1: will lie in repose. Thousands of mourners, including President of Baba,

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Speaker 1: members of Congress, former Justices and tourists will pay their

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Speaker 1: respects to one of the court's most influential members. Funeral

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Speaker 1: mass for Scalia will be held tomorrow. The lawyer for

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Speaker 1: a Texas teenager who used an affluenza defense and a

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Speaker 1: fatal drunken driving wreck has said he will not challenge

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Speaker 1: a transfer of the case to adult court. Eighteen year

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Speaker 1: old Ethan Couches due to appear in court today for

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Speaker 1: hearing on the question. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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Speaker 1: powered by our journalists him Michael Barr to Michael, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much, West Texas thirty dollars eleven cents wait to

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Speaker 1: the day, but not through to a twenty nine handle

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Speaker 1: yet from New York of Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought

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Speaker 1: to buy your Tri State BMW centers. Visit the online

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Speaker 1: at tri State BMW dot com. At BMW they make

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the

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Speaker 1: radio plus mobile app, and on your radio. This is

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Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Kerra in Moscow. This

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Speaker 1: updates brought to you by c I T. From transportation

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Speaker 1: to healthcare to manufacturing, c i T offers commercial lending, leasing,

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Speaker 1: and treasury management services for small and middle market businesses.

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Speaker 1: Learn more at c I T dot com put Knowledge

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Speaker 1: to Work. Deer In Company down almost two percent this morning,

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Speaker 1: the world's largest agricultural equipment maker, cutting its fiscal full

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Speaker 1: year profit and sales forecast. I mean a worsening outlook

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Speaker 1: for farmers as they face declining incomes. US DOT Index

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Speaker 1: futures me while lower along with oil prices, smp E

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Speaker 1: Many futures down seven points, now E Many futures down

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Speaker 1: sixty four, nazdak E Many futures down eighteen. DAX in

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Speaker 1: Germany's down nine tenths per cent, tenure treasury of four

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds, the yeld one point seven two percent, nom

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Speaker 1: X screwed oil down two percent or sixty cents to

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Speaker 1: thirty dollars seventeen cents of arrol Comax Gold up seven

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Speaker 1: tenths percent or eight dollars ten cents to twelve thirty

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Speaker 1: four or forty ounce. The euro and dollar eleven twelve,

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Speaker 1: the N one twelve point eight three. That's a Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: business flash. Tom and Mike, thank you, Karen Well. If

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Speaker 1: if anything, it's almost hard to believe that the presidential

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Speaker 1: race could get more toxic, but it did yesterday with

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Speaker 1: the Pope getting involved at Donald Trump, etcetera. Uh, anything

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Speaker 1: but edifying. One of the things that is now becoming

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Speaker 1: clear is that the collateral damage out of all this

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Speaker 1: is going to be trust. What trust is remaining in Washington?

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Speaker 1: And our government has all the candidates run around talking

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Speaker 1: about how we have a terrible, terrible, terrible government in Washington.

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Speaker 1: Stan Colliner has to deal with that government on a

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Speaker 1: daily basis. He is an executive vice president National director

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Speaker 1: of Financial Communications for the MSL Group. And uh stand,

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Speaker 1: I'm just wondering what real estate prices are like in

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Speaker 1: Washington these days. I mean, is it like, you know,

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Speaker 1: nobody's gonna be able to sell their house because nobody

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Speaker 1: wants to go and live in toxic Washington. Well, usually

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Speaker 1: what happens. It's funny you should ask. Um. The real

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Speaker 1: estate prices in the Washington area completely depended on the

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Speaker 1: election cycle, and they vary depending upon whether a Democrat

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Speaker 1: or a Republican is more likely to get elected. Republicans

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Speaker 1: tend to buy in the suburbs. Um So, given that

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Speaker 1: everything is on hold at the moment, because things are

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Speaker 1: so crazy or couldn't get much crazier. We think, Uh,

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Speaker 1: the real estate is not moving as quickly in Washington

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Speaker 1: as he used to. You just said a funny saying,

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Speaker 1: couldn't get much crazier, And then that's what we said

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Speaker 1: last week. And then antonin Scalia dies and now it's crazier. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and now the Pope of course decided that he was

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Speaker 1: part of the US election process. Um, I wasn't his fault.

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Speaker 1: It was a reporter's fault. But anyway, but but still,

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Speaker 1: um uh, these are things and you should expect more

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Speaker 1: unexpected things. And this is the time in the election

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Speaker 1: that candidates can't plan for everything happening. And what we

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Speaker 1: used to do in a general election call in October

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Speaker 1: surprise now is becoming a February surprise and March surprise, etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: We can't do anything about what the candidates are doing

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Speaker 1: and saying out there, but we do have to worry

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Speaker 1: about what is actually happening the companies and investors who

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Speaker 1: are listening to us. Um, I want to know what

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Speaker 1: is going to happen, what is happening in Washington? And

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Speaker 1: I guess uh from your notes nothing at this point,

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Speaker 1: it's happening anymore because of what's going on. Well, not

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Speaker 1: only is nothing happening, but you should expect the market

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Speaker 1: should expect that Washington is basically going to be dysfunctional

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Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. Maybe next year too,

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Speaker 1: But let's just deal with this year. Let's let's jump

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Speaker 1: into that. I think it's with your we should explain

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Speaker 1: your experience. You spent years up on Capitol Hill with

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Speaker 1: finance and fiscal and budget matters. Is an outsider to

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Speaker 1: the judicial process. What are you watching for in the

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Speaker 1: coming weeks and months. Well, the first thing is you

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Speaker 1: would expect the Democrats to uh go after Mitch McConnell

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Speaker 1: in a variety of ways using the legislation, the legislative

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Speaker 1: processes they they can. Basically because of his comments of

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Speaker 1: post the Justice Scalis death, Uh, they'll slow down the

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Speaker 1: appropriations process to the point where not much is going

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Speaker 1: to happen until the very end of the fiscal year,

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Speaker 1: uh or the beginning of the next year. And that's

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Speaker 1: exactly the opposite of what he expected. But also things

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Speaker 1: like tax reform not going anywhere. Um. And the biggest

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Speaker 1: thing you had on on yesterday Larry Larry. Yes, I'm

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Speaker 1: just saying we need fiscal policy. There is gonna be

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Speaker 1: no fiscal policy. Whatever happens on the budget will happen

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Speaker 1: by accident, not intentionally. Well, if, um, if we're going

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Speaker 1: to stop everything, is that necessarily a bad thing. It's

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Speaker 1: been argued for years that the best scenario for Wall

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Speaker 1: Street is that Washington is be calmed because nothing negative

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Speaker 1: happens and there's a certain certainty uh to policy. Well,

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Speaker 1: that would be fine if the economy were doing well

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Speaker 1: in the expectations where that it was going to continue

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Speaker 1: to do well, but with the Fed having limited amounts

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Speaker 1: of limited tools at its disposal, uh, and you would

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Speaker 1: expect or you would the markets would help that Washington

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Speaker 1: would be functioning better so that if they needed to

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Speaker 1: do something, they could. Um. That's what that's the real

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Speaker 1: fallacy about. Let's just have Washington do nothing first of all, Um,

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Speaker 1: that's only good when you don't need Washington to do something.

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Speaker 1: And at this point, there are a lot of folks

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Speaker 1: to say there are some things that should be done,

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Speaker 1: some sort of stimulus plan at tax cut something like

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Speaker 1: that to keep the economy going. But um, you remember,

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Speaker 1: the big thing is expectation here and right now, there's

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Speaker 1: no way you can expect what Washington is doing with

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Speaker 1: any gree certainty or confidence. But if you're a if

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Speaker 1: you're a serious investor, and you're following all this, you're

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Speaker 1: not expecting any kind of even absent the poisonous atmosphere

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Speaker 1: we've got, you're not expecting any kind of fiscal action.

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Speaker 1: I mean, all the talk about Washington should do something is,

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Speaker 1: as near as I can tell, from outside the belt Way,

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Speaker 1: anybody in Washington actually saying, well, maybe it would be

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Speaker 1: a good idea to pass something. Um, well, there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of things that some people would like to pass,

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Speaker 1: for example, international tax reform or corporate tax reform. Um

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Speaker 1: there are things that people would like that's just not

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Speaker 1: going to happen. And the question here is when could

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Speaker 1: it happen? I mean, we're looking at is not just

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Speaker 1: a uh freeze in place situation for the rest of

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Speaker 1: this year, but possibly for the next couple of years

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Speaker 1: as well, with the Senate maybe turning hands narrowly or

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Speaker 1: you know, so not much gonna go on or where

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Speaker 1: are we then, with with all of that background, quickly, here,

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Speaker 1: where are we on sequest your so shutdown, and the

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Speaker 1: rest of it is that all old news are those

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Speaker 1: options that use study. Um they're options, but they're not

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Speaker 1: They're very very less likely. It's very less likely, but

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Speaker 1: very less likely. We don't get the shock at all,

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Speaker 1: and and there's no debt sailing issue this year. At

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Speaker 1: stan Colindar, we'll talk to him about the fiscal discussion.

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Speaker 1: On the campaign trail, We've got to review what have

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Speaker 1: we got Mike, South Carolina and Nevada for the Democrats

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Speaker 1: this weekend for the Democrats and then the Democrats go

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Speaker 1: back to South Carolina win a week for a week

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Speaker 1: from sat and the Republicans go to Nevada on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Go figure, what does stan Colendar here out on the

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Speaker 1: campaign trail. Maybe it's different than Mike McKie and I

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Speaker 1: here or don't here as well? To discuss that with

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Speaker 1: Stanley Colendar of Corvus MSL Group Features to review or

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Speaker 1: flat John Deere with a bombshell forecast week week forecast

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Speaker 1: forward futures to tier eight, negative eight, Dow features negative

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Speaker 1: sixty seven oil got down to thirty dollars and a

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Speaker 1: penny looking for a twenty nine handle on West Texas Intermediate.

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Speaker 1: It is a good Friday morning. We want you to

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Speaker 1: stay with us, My McKee and Tom Key Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance is brought to you by your Mercedes Benz

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Speaker 1: Tri State Dealer. When it comes to winter elements, put

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Speaker 1: your best four wheels forward with Mercedes Benz Formatic All

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Speaker 1: wheel Drive. Visit your Mercedes Benz Tri State dealer for

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Speaker 1: a test drive today. Broadcasting live to New York, Gloomberg

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Speaker 1: eleventh Rio to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: twelve onders to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the Country

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Speaker 1: Series Exam Channel one ninety and around the globe. The

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Plus happened Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Michael McKee. Seven thirty on Wall Street

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Speaker 1: t G I f A. Wall Street struggles to find

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Speaker 1: a reason to go higher this morning, John Dear, Now

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Speaker 1: it's called Deer in Company. Some of us are all

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Speaker 1: enough to remember. John, the world's largest stagger culture maker,

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Speaker 1: cutting its fiscal full year profit and sales forecast, worsening

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Speaker 1: outlook for farmers these days. Deer shares down one point

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Speaker 1: three on the good news side, shares of applied materials

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Speaker 1: are up almost nine percent. The largest maker of the

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Speaker 1: machines that produced computer chips predicted sales this quarter that

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Speaker 1: could beat analysts estimates. Starwood Hotel CEO says that company

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Speaker 1: maybe in talks to sell properties, including the St. Regis

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Speaker 1: in New York, and City Group increased chief executive Mike

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Speaker 1: Corbett's compensation. He made sixteen and a half million dollars

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Speaker 1: last year. Now, let's check out with Michael Barr and

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Speaker 1: yet the latest world and national headlines. MIKEL, Mike, thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. A US officials says American war planes

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Speaker 1: at multiple targets in Libya overnight. The officials says one

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Speaker 1: of the targets hit was an Islamic State training camp

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Speaker 1: and also a senior extremist leader was also hit. The

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Speaker 1: official says at least thirty Islamic State recruits were killed.

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Speaker 1: The casket carrying Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scali elbow Lyon

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Speaker 1: propose at the Supreme Court thousands of mornings will pay

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Speaker 1: their respects today a funeral mass where schooling it will

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Speaker 1: take place tomorrow. The I R S is issuing a

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Speaker 1: new Morning about email scams. Crooks are sending out more

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Speaker 1: bogus links and fake websites than ever to try and

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Speaker 1: get access to taxpayers personal data and bank account numbers.

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Speaker 1: Senior i R spokesperson Terry Lemons tells us the messages

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Speaker 1: look official, but they're not. If you year at tax

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Speaker 1: time we see a real uptick in tax scams, but

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Speaker 1: this year so far, we've seen a real surge of

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Speaker 1: these email phishing incidents. Lemons says, if you do come

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Speaker 1: across one of these emails, just hit the lete. Forecasters

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Speaker 1: say this could be a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic.

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Speaker 1: The co founder of Weather Underground in ann Arbor, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: says he is looking for a lot more activity than

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Speaker 1: we had last year with the removal of Elnino Global

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Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day, powered by our journalists

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Speaker 1: more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world.

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Speaker 1: I am Michael Barr, Mike, thank you, miach all the time.

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Speaker 1: Now for the Katina Auto Group Bloomberg NBC Sports update,

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Speaker 1: Here's rub Bush. Good morning, Mike. Rangers continue to impress

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Speaker 1: down the stretch as they scored it a minute and

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Speaker 1: a half left to break a two all tie in

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Speaker 1: Toronto Forts fact of Prussher Miller where they'll take away

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Speaker 1: Filler Torello, the shot star Derek step On off of

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Speaker 1: great play by J. T. Leeward at the Rangers played

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Speaker 1: print of two that's MSG on the call. Derek Brossard

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Speaker 1: added an empty Netters New York topped the Leaves four

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Speaker 1: to two. Rangers or third in the East. They've won

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Speaker 1: seven of ten. The news not so good for the Islanders,

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Speaker 1: who had the misfortunate of hosting the best record in

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Speaker 1: the game. The Washington Capitol's League MVP candidate Alexevetkin notched

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Speaker 1: a pair of goals. He has thirty seven on the year.

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Speaker 1: Cats one three to two in overtime. The Islander is

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Speaker 1: still in good shape, though their fifth seed in the

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Speaker 1: East devils on the outside looking in. They had the

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Speaker 1: night off, as did both local basketball teams, but they're

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Speaker 1: both on the court tonight squaring off with one another,

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Speaker 1: and prior to the game, the Knicks they will or

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Speaker 1: the Annets will introduce their new and general manager, Shawn

430
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 1: Marks in a press conference, and Major League Baseball pitchers

431
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: and catchers have reported grateful league action starts made first

432
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: at Your NBC Bloomberg Sports Update, Mike, thank you Rob.

433
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 1: Right now, futures lower, SMP futures off by six points.

434
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 1: That's three tenths of eight percent. Same percentage declined for

435
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,719
Speaker 1: doubt futures. They're off fifty three now as that features

436
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 1: down fifteen right now, four tenths of a percent. This

437
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Radio worldwide, and you are listening to Bloomberg Surveillance.

438
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keene, where watching stocks

439
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: trying to get higher. Europe lower as well. Three points

440
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 1: down on the stock six now, nine tenths of a percent.

441
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: Foot see off by twenty seven points half a percent.

442
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,239
Speaker 1: They of course engaged in the process of trying to

443
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: negotiate a deal that would keep them in the European Union,

444
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: and that has everybody on tenter hooks in the markets

445
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 1: over there. We'll keep you up to date on that

446
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 1: and coming up in a little while we will, but

447
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: what we'll call it forty five minutes from now, we'll

448
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: get an update from Chatham House on the negotiations and

449
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 1: what we might expect. Now it is time for the

450
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg n j I t STEM Report, brought to you

451
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: by a New Jersey Institute of Technology, partnering with government

452
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 1: and industry to apply the university's world class research assets

453
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: to innovate and spur economic growth. Learn more at n

454
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: j I, T dot, E d U and Good Morning, Michael.

455
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: It is seven thirty five on Wall Street. Here's what's

456
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 1: making news in science, technology, engineering, and math. Story on

457
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Today details how the government was working on

458
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: a Plan B. Around the same time last year, it

459
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 1: seemed to be backing off its pressure on technology makers

460
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 1: to install back door entry into their software. A secret

461
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: meeting convened by the White House led to an order

462
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: for agencies across the US government to develop encryption workarounds

463
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: and find ways to gain access to the most heavily

464
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: protected user data on the most secure consumer devices, including

465
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 1: the iPhone. Now, Apple is back in the crosshairs with

466
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: that court order to help the government gain access to

467
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 1: the cell phone used by a California terrorist, and the

468
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 1: battle of words is raging even before Apple delivers its

469
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: court response. New York Police Commissioner William Bratton and Manhattan

470
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. Held a news conference to

471
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 1: weigh in, Vance, complaining the tech companies have created the

472
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 1: first warrant proof consumer products. This has become ladies and

473
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 1: gentlemen the wild West in technology, Apple and Google are

474
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: their own sheriffs. There are no rules. This is a

475
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: decision where to draw the line between public safety and

476
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 1: privacy that needs to be made by independent players, the

477
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: legislature and the courts, not by two companies who have

478
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 1: drawn the line coincidentally at a place which coincides with

479
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: their economic self interest. People familiar with the matter of say,

480
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 1: Apple now has a little extra time to answer the

481
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: court order. Its response now due a week from today.

482
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 1: And that's this morning's Bloomberg and j I. T. Stem Report. Michael,

483
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 1: thank you very much, Baboon. We're talking with Stan Collender,

484
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: who is executive vice president of National director for Financial

485
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: Communications for M s L Group in Washington. He has

486
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 1: made his way north. Nobody wants to be in Washington

487
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: these days, and the presidential candidates say it's such a

488
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: terrible place. So it's understandable you would come up to

489
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: New York. Not to mention a lot of my clients

490
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 1: are here and at the food is better. Not according

491
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: to Tom Seats by the Washington Post, who wrote a

492
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: really nasty column the other day denigrating New York restaurants.

493
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: We're talking about that yesterday with UH when we were

494
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: doing our dining segment. Well, we should talk about pizza

495
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 1: and corn beef and bagels. Anyway, some other times we'll

496
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: throw that up. You've been around Washington a long time.

497
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: I spend an off a long time in Washington. You

498
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: and I go back to when Vice President William Wheeler

499
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: was presiding over the Senate, UH, back in the eighteen seventies,

500
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: and I suppose yourself you almost have to go back

501
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: that far to think of a time when relations on

502
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 1: the Senate floor were as bad as they are now.

503
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: I mean, in the recon in the reconstruction era, of

504
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: course you had people taining each other. We haven't gotten

505
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: to that point yet. But now that we have this

506
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 1: Supreme Court fight coming up in a place where the

507
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 1: premium is on hating thy neighbor, how is this going

508
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: to end up changing the Senate? I mean, can it

509
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 1: get any worse going forward? Oh? Yeah? I mean, first

510
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: of all, don't never say never. But here's the difference.

511
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: Now it's not just partisan, it's inter party fights. Um,

512
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: you've got the Senate with Republicans have the majority, but

513
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: the Republican majority hates take crews, and so he can't

514
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: do anything on the floor. Um, you've got Democrats who

515
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: won't work with Democrats, not just Democrats who won't work

516
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: with Republicans and vice versa. Uh. So you've got this

517
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: situation now among the people I speak with on a

518
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: regular basis inside the Beltway or immediately outside, Uh, we're

519
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: all looking at each other going, what the hell is

520
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 1: going on? There's nothing here that makes any sense. Then

521
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 1: nothing here in the previous experience that it describes quite

522
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: what's going on here where where? You know? It's the

523
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: fight on the budget this year, what I'm very familiar

524
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: with is going to be a Republican versus Republican fight.

525
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: It's going to be Republicans in the House versus the

526
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: Republicans in the Senate, and it maybe some Republicans in

527
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: the House their Freedom Caucus versus other Republicans in the House.

528
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: Democrats are just gonna sit back and watch. In the meantime,

529
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 1: you've got a House and senator Congress that's not working,

530
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 1: a lame dog president, and now we've got a four

531
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: four Supreme Court, and you've got people screaming at the

532
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: Fed saying don't do anything or we don't like what

533
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: you are doing. So what institution is actually working and

534
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: for the market? Which institution involved with economic policy is

535
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: actually going to do its job over the next year.

536
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: That's the question I keep asking which one is capable

537
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: of doing it? Did Tom delay win? I mean, what

538
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: you're describing is the ultimate goal of a certain wing

539
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: of the Republican Party to completely sort of shut down Washington.

540
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 1: I don't know if you could say Tom delay one that.

541
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: I mean, there are clearly a lot of people who

542
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: are driving dissatisfaction with government. But the interesting thing is

543
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 1: they're driving dissatisfaction and government so that they can take

544
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: over the government and have it do what it want

545
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: what they want. So it's a temporary kind of thing.

546
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: It's just it's a tactic as opposed to a you know,

547
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: a permanent strategy. Um it noticed that it's all this

548
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 1: dissatisfaction is not reducing the amount of the government spending

549
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: where the number of federal departments um. In fact, if anything,

550
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 1: last year, the Republicans pushed through a tax bill that

551
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: increased the deficit and increase to the government borrowing. So

552
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: that's not changing. It's just changing the appearance of who's

553
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: in charge and who's making it happen. All Right, Stan

554
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: Calendar from MSL Group in Washington, always making us feel

555
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 1: better on a on a Friday morning. Uh, we we're

556
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: talking about what's going on in the political world of Washington,

557
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: d C. Where you can listen to Blo Brig Grady

558
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: point one FM every day and keep up with the

559
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: latest news on what's happening. And I was gonna say,

560
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: what's happening and what's not happening in Washington on Wall Street.

561
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: What is happening is that we're standing for a lower open.

562
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: It looks like S and P futures down six points

563
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 1: three tenths of eight percent. We're kind of get out

564
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: of the opening bell. Brought to you by the refined

565
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland. It continues to raise the bar

566
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567
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Speaker 1: Drive one at your local Jeep dealer today. Geep the

568
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Speaker 1: official vehicle of Killington Resort. Global business news twenty four

569
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the Radio plus

570
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 1: mobile and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business

571
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. This updates brought to you

572
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: by c b o E r m C. Come to

573
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: the c b o E Risk Management Conference February twenty

574
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Speaker 1: nine to March second at the highest regency, Coconut Point, Florida.

575
00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 1: Register and learn more at c b O E r

576
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: ms C US dot com. US DOCK Index futures are

577
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 1: lower to mirror a slide in oil prices, an indication

578
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: the SNP five will pair a relief rally that's put

579
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 1: it on track for the best week since November. We

580
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day

581
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg. SNP Emuni futures down five and a half

582
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: points to DOWNI mini futures down forty nine, NASA documuny

583
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: futures down fourteen. The decks in Germany's down six tenths

584
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 1: per cent. Ten Your treasury up to thirty seconds, the

585
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 1: yield one point seven three percent. NIMEX screwed oil down

586
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 1: one point six per cent or fifty cents to thirty

587
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: dollars twenty seven cents of barrel comes gold a half

588
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: percent or six dollars to twelve thirty two thirty an ounce.

589
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: The euro at a dollar eleven fourteen, The N one

590
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: twelve point nine five deer in company down about one

591
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 1: point seven percent this morning after cutting its full year

592
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: profit in sales forecast. Northstrom down more than eight percent

593
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 1: after posting holiday results. Dell fell short of projections and

594
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: apply materials. It's moving higher. It's up eight and a

595
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: half percent after its quarterly sales forecast exceeded the average

596
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: analysts estimate. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Kin,

597
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: thank you very much. Still want to stand Callandar, National

598
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 1: director of financial Communications for M s L Group. We're

599
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: talking about Washington, d C. We We've talked about the

600
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: depressing aspects of it, and so now let's get into

601
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 1: the depressing aspects of it. We have a big Supreme

602
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 1: Court fight coming up. Uh. We don't even know exactly

603
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: how this is going to play out in terms of

604
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: you know, who the President is going to nominate and

605
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: how the Republicans will actually respond when they do. But

606
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 1: what is your best guess because there are a lot

607
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: of cases uh before the court now awaiting decision and

608
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: cases that will be considered for certain that involved business

609
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: and people want to when you're talking about a swing

610
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: in the Court as as big as this one could be.

611
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: People want to know what's gonna happen. Well, all right, uh,

612
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: crystal ball. Obviously, first of all, you've had a lot

613
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: of the decisions we were expecting to be five four. Uh,

614
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: they will be unless there are changes in the way

615
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: the judges are planned. Justices are planning on voting, they'll

616
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: be four for and not moving forward. That will leave

617
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 1: the lower court decisions in place. Interesting thing is many

618
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 1: of those Lower Court decisions were done by Democratic judges

619
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 1: appointed by Obama, So in many respects he wins both

620
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: the president wins with decisions that stay in place for

621
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 1: a little while longer. Um. The bigger question is whether

622
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: or not any Supreme Court justice can be nominated and

623
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: approved confirmed this year. The likelihood of that happening is

624
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: very small. If you were to have a cup of

625
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: coffee in Boston or Washington, San Francisco, Tulsa, Oklahoma, what

626
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 1: would you say is the biggest misconception of how we

627
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 1: choose our judicial leaders. Well, that we we do it

628
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 1: on the basis of merit, on on quality. Instead, you've

629
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: got if you listen to it now, it's people want

630
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 1: to maintain the ideological balance the current ideological balance in

631
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 1: the court of that they're appointed because they're appointed by life.

632
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 1: You don't want to lame duck president appointing it. Regardless

633
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 1: of out qualified someone could be. UM. The judicial nomination

634
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 1: process is as political as anything in Washington, maybe more political,

635
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: because judges are appointed for life. And what is it

636
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,320
Speaker 1: within your reading? I mean, Mike and I are invested

637
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: in this, like are all Americans. But within your reading

638
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: in the last few days, is the president likely to

639
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 1: go with the centrist? I mean, I think I've heard

640
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 1: Justice Kennedy speak three times, and he defines the middle ground.

641
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 1: I would be surprised if he did. Uh the second

642
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 1: person to say that on the show, And I'll tell

643
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: you why, because I don't think there's any expectation that

644
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: whoever is nominated will move forward so that the nomination

645
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 1: itself will have political significance. He will probably pick in

646
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 1: And again he doesn't call me and ask for my

647
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: opinion on this. But if I were abetting man, I

648
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 1: would say the president is likely to pick somebody who,

649
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 1: by virtue of his or her nomination, will will get

650
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 1: the Democrats and points at the next election. That's an

651
00:35:54,360 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 1: interesting um an issuting viewpoint, because whomever it is, the

652
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 1: more liberal they are, the less likely there's any chance

653
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 1: that they get confirmed, of course, but then there's no

654
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 1: promise that they would be renominated by the next president.

655
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: So if you are going to be the president's nominee,

656
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,800
Speaker 1: you've got to be willing to go through the vetting process,

657
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 1: fill out all the forms and paperwork for nothing, you know,

658
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 1: for for for six months of being beaten about the

659
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 1: head and shoulders in Washington, and you get nothing at

660
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 1: the end of it. Well, except that it could also

661
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: work in the opposite direction, Mike. That is. Uh, first

662
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: of all, your your your stature as a as a

663
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 1: judge will rise immediately because you've been nominated to the

664
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: Supreme Court, whether or not you actually get it, and

665
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: especially if there's no vote against you, it's just no vote. Um,

666
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot of negative about it. But second,

667
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 1: there is some expectation that if a Democrat gets elected

668
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:53,240
Speaker 1: to the White House, whoever the president nominates for, whoever

669
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 1: President Obama nominates this year, might simply get renominated next year,

670
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: especially if there's a Democratic controls that well. It one

671
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: assumes though that whomever Bernie Sanders would nominate would I mean,

672
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 1: he would look for someone who's farther to the left

673
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: than Obama would pick. Not necessarily, not necessarily. And then

674
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 1: in fact, if you listen to the Republicans in Congress,

675
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: that's absolutely not gonna happen. But this just goes back

676
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 1: to something we talked about earlier is a really interesting

677
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 1: Republican versus Republican fight. Here. You've got Republican conservative groups,

678
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: ultra conservative groups demanding that there be no hearings whatsoever.

679
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: You've got people like like Chuck Grassley, Senator from Iowa, UM,

680
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 1: saying we're gonna have hearings, UM. And so this is

681
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,839
Speaker 1: this is an he's a Republican big fights going on, UM,

682
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: and the Democrats need to sit back and watching Republicans,

683
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 1: you know, uh, you know self destroy themselves on a

684
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 1: Friday question if we can, you have given us wonderful

685
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: perspective on a broken legislature, inflative process, your expertise of

686
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 1: a broken fiscal process from a distance, do you suggest

687
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: we have a broken judicial progress? My take as an amateur,

688
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 1: it's one of the few things that happens to work

689
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: well whenever anybody's debate on it. Well we're not talking

690
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 1: about the judicial process. That is, the decision by which

691
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 1: the process by which they make decisions, but the process

692
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: by which they select and confirmed judges clearly is in trouble. Um.

693
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 1: No matter how qualified somebody might be, it's it's not

694
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 1: clear that a brandis bankfootter could get not get elect

695
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 1: get confirmed. Okay, I've heard that before. Would you suggest

696
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 1: that this is an important decision tree for people voting

697
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: in key states in November? Absolutely? In fact, do you

698
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 1: think they're going to vote based on judicial decisions? No?

699
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 1: I think well some will in order because on on

700
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: everything from abortion to planned parented to a variety of

701
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,280
Speaker 1: things like that. The courts with with a dysfunctional congress,

702
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 1: the courts have become the battleground in a lot of ways. Um,

703
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 1: But what they should be voting on is the process

704
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 1: by which the judges are confirmed. Can I can I

705
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 1: bring it back to economics finance investment, Mike of what

706
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: a novel concept. Let's review again for our audience and

707
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: frankly for me, the importance of the plug ins of

708
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 1: g d P in our debt process. They're critical. We

709
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,919
Speaker 1: all know that, but right now there's massive uncertainty about

710
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: where the terminal long term five year tenure value is

711
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 1: of g d P. Have you ever seen it like this? No,

712
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: I never have, And I've also never seen the various

713
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: organizations that do do forecasting be as unsure about what

714
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: to do. The CBO has been great about it. I

715
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: mean they've been very open about it. I think they have,

716
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: I mean, very open, very transparent. But don't forget, you've

717
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 1: got a lot of pressure from Congress coming from on

718
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 1: dynamic scoring and those types of things and what it

719
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 1: actually means for the economy. Um So, there's a lot

720
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: of uncertainty, and there's a lot of disconnect between everything

721
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 1: from g A O to CBO to l m B

722
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: and everybody in between. Um So, it's it's it's and

723
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 1: and you know, they're not simply taking what Wall Street

724
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 1: is doing, but today, I mean that they they're coming

725
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: up with their own. Doesn't matter if the numbers two

726
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 1: point two percent versus a historic three point two percent

727
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: over over a ten year period in our budget projections,

728
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 1: it makes a huge, a huge difference. I mean, it's

729
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: the difference between demands for deficit reduction or not. Hundreds

730
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 1: of billions of dollars of delta over ten years, so easy, easy,

731
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 1: and and and even it's going to be more as

732
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 1: we get further to the out years. You okay, over there, No,

733
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 1: I'm listening to Bronco's withdrawal. No, no, no it spring

734
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: training has started. We're we're getting all excited. Actually, I'm

735
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 1: reading some headlines here. Go back to what we were

736
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 1: talking about very early in our interviews. Stand about how

737
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 1: people have been trashing the US government and how bad

738
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: things are the candidates out. They're voting in Uganda for

739
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 1: for president Amy. This is a general election, and the

740
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: incumbent President, Lucia Any has sixty three percent of the vote,

741
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 1: the opposition candidate has thirty three percent of the vote,

742
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,959
Speaker 1: and the governed and has decided to storm the headquarters

743
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: of the opposition candidate and arrest him. The US embassy

744
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: there has uh strongly condemned this and is urging citizens

745
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 1: to stay off the streets in the capital of Kampala. Well,

746
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,240
Speaker 1: we don't have that here. As bad as things are,

747
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 1: let's keep things in perspective. There's a there's a pony

748
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 1: in there somewhere here. Yes, I mean this is happening

749
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 1: right now in another country. They're having a presidential election

750
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 1: and they're arresting the opposition candidate. I mean, for all

751
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 1: it's bad about the US government in etcetera. This has

752
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 1: been a great There's a difference between a Monday through

753
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 1: Thursday stand and a Friday stand. A Friday stand is

754
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 1: more reflective, more thoughtful. Come back Monday, grizzled in cynic

755
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 1: it'll happen, same calendar with Corvis MSL group, And as

756
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 1: you all know, it has given us incredibly trenchion and

757
00:41:56,200 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: oftentimes accurate perspective on our deficit and debt hysteria. Actually,

758
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,439
Speaker 1: there's some real weight to in seriousness. I do urge

759
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 1: you to read the executive summaries at the Congressional Budget Office.

760
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 1: They're a great way to start UH an intelligent discussion

761
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 1: of where we're going with our national bills, where we're

762
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 1: going with the tape. As an improvement, Futures flat down

763
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 1: to negative nine, I'm gonna call that off the John

764
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 1: Deer shock. Maybe Brussels and Cameron some of that as well,

765
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,240
Speaker 1: and we had a nice recovery on a correlated tape

766
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 1: in the last twenty or more minutes. Futures negative four

767
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 1: now features negative thirty oil oil thirty point zero one

768
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: is up thirty cents thirty point three zero BRETU thirty

769
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:44,479
Speaker 1: three eight eight Bonus Round Friday Bonus Round. Another hour,

770
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 1: Another two hours of Blueberg surveillance,