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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Are you going to place a bet?

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Speaker 3: Or walk?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 4: We're back with our fifth annual.

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Speaker 1: Edition of The Experts Guide to Fantasy Football. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Maria Marino, excited to be joined by Action Network fantasy

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Speaker 1: experts Sean Kerner and Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 4: You can hear them every week.

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Speaker 1: During the NFL season on this very podcast, as well

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Speaker 1: as the Fantasy Flex fellas.

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Speaker 4: How are you feeling today?

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Speaker 2: Feeling good, Marie, I'm just I'm just disappointed you didn't

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Speaker 2: announce us, introduce us as the you know, best performers

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Speaker 2: coming off of Bender in.

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Speaker 5: Our company Gamblie winning podcasters exactly.

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Speaker 4: Quick quick backstory just for anyone listening.

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Speaker 1: We had the awards the Gamblies our first annual edition, and.

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Speaker 4: That was an an actual award that these two received.

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Speaker 1: Best performance off a Bender. Congratulations, guys, thank.

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Speaker 3: You, thank you.

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Speaker 4: But that is only one of their many accomplishments.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of listeners of this podcast probably know

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Speaker 1: you guys already. And before we get into just best

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Speaker 1: practices for fantasy football, this.

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Speaker 4: Is how I've been.

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Speaker 1: Informed to summarize their expertise. So every season, the website

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros ranks the accuracy of almost two hundred professional

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Speaker 1: fantasy experts, and Chris and Seawan consistently rank highly in

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Speaker 1: these objective rankings. Last season, Chris and Shawn both finished

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Speaker 1: in the top five.

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Speaker 4: Happen for you, Well done, guys.

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Speaker 1: So basically, you guys are qualified to talk about fantasy football.

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Speaker 4: So that's why we have you on here to do

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Speaker 4: just that.

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Speaker 1: And obviously you can't play fantasy football without a draft,

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Speaker 1: so we're going to spend a lot of time talking

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Speaker 1: about draft strategy and how to approach a draft. And

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Speaker 1: it's perfect timing because a lot of these fantasy drafts

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Speaker 1: are coming up very soon here as we get into August.

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Speaker 1: So you know, this NFL offseason, there's been a lot

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Speaker 1: of talk about running backs and sort of the position

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Speaker 1: in the league being somewhat devalued by owners, and there's

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Speaker 1: been a lot of contract disputes and whatnot. Despite how

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Speaker 1: the actual NFL used running backs, it's my impression that

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Speaker 1: in fantasy football, running backs are still extremely valuable and important.

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Speaker 1: So Chris, why don't we start with you talk about

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Speaker 1: your philosophy with running backs and hasn't changed it all

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Speaker 1: over the years because I think that the typical assumption

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Speaker 1: is what I said, that running backs are where you

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Speaker 1: want to focus things first.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it has changed over the years. So

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Speaker 2: maybe you know, five, ten years ago, even you would

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Speaker 2: look at running backs and they would almost exclusively be

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Speaker 2: your first round, maybe even second round picks you'd always

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Speaker 2: want to get in a week running back. But with

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Speaker 2: the way the league is trending toward a passing league,

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Speaker 2: not not just the devaluing of running backs, but more

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Speaker 2: just trending toward a passing league, there's less of the

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Speaker 2: traditional bellkal running backs that we used to see, you know, ten,

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Speaker 2: fifteen years ago, and so what's happened is there's usually

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Speaker 2: a big tier break between the few elite running backs.

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Speaker 2: Think you're Christian McCaffrey's and your Austin Eckler's and everyone else,

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Speaker 2: because most running backs just aren't getting that those type

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Speaker 2: of snap rates anymore. Derek Henry's another one. But when

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Speaker 2: you look at the overall way that you know, fantasy

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Speaker 2: is being scored, like you have to start a whole

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Speaker 2: team nowadays, you're usually starting a flex in addition to

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Speaker 2: two running backs. And at least two receivers. So wide

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Speaker 2: receivers have become more important in my opinion than running

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Speaker 2: backs now and so this year in particular, you know,

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Speaker 2: there's been a strategy that's kind of been kind of

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Speaker 2: a trending up and down over the last few years

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Speaker 2: called the zero RB strategy, which is where you don't

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Speaker 2: really draft many running backs in the high leverage round,

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Speaker 2: sometimes none, And I think this year twenty twenty three

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Speaker 2: in particular, that actually works quite well because the thing,

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Speaker 2: the difference between running backs and receivers is you're not

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Speaker 2: gonna find a team's number one receiver on the waiver wire,

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Speaker 2: you know, if a receiver gets hurt the number two,

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Speaker 2: we'll go up to the number one and so on.

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Speaker 2: Whereas running backs you can find some of those guys

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Speaker 2: due to injury, you know, on the waiver wire or

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Speaker 2: waiter in the draft. So I think it's really important

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Speaker 2: to get you know, three bona fide receivers planning to

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Speaker 2: play a receiver in the flex and especially this year

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Speaker 2: is a lot of the RB two types, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Miles sanders Is and the Aaron Joneses and the

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Speaker 2: Cam Akers. There's a pretty kind of big tier of

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Speaker 2: those guys, whereas the tier drops off a lot more

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Speaker 2: after you know, the the top twenty five or thirty

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Speaker 2: wide receivers. So my plan for this year in particular

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Speaker 2: usually is to get you know, probably like three or

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Speaker 2: four of those RB two types. And if it means

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Speaker 2: I miss out and a guy like McCaffrey, but I have,

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Speaker 2: you know, an extra e week wide receiver, I'm fine

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Speaker 2: with that.

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Speaker 4: Interesting.

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Speaker 1: So, Sean, I know you have a few different strategies

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Speaker 1: when it comes to running backs, including you know this

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Speaker 1: zero RB approach that raybon mentioned, which surprised me a

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Speaker 1: little bit. But can you sort of lay those out

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Speaker 1: and maybe what your preference is for this this offseason.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So there's really three main draft strategies when it

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Speaker 5: comes to running backs, and they all focus on like

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Speaker 5: the first five rounds. So the first is ray Baul

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Speaker 5: mentioned it zero running back, and it basically sums itself up.

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Speaker 5: You take zero running backs in the first five rounds,

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Speaker 5: so you're filling out your wide receivers. Maybe you take

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Speaker 5: a quarterback a tight end, but you're basically avoiding all

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Speaker 5: running backs in the first five rounds. The second is

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Speaker 5: robust running back, and that's where you take around three

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Speaker 5: running backs. In the first five rounds you're just really

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Speaker 5: loading up, maybe because everybody else is fading running backs.

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Speaker 5: And the third is kind of a blended two. It's

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Speaker 5: called hero running back, and that's where you take one

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Speaker 5: running back. Let's say in rounds one and two you

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Speaker 5: just get a stud running back, and then you use

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Speaker 5: the other four rounds to load up at wide receiver,

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Speaker 5: take a quarterback or tight end. I'm typically of the

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Speaker 5: hero running back mindset. I don't think while I get

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Speaker 5: the logic behind zero running back, I don't think you

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Speaker 5: really want to avoid it. It's still very important. It's

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Speaker 5: very fragile. You know, running backs are constantly getting injured.

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Speaker 5: It's you know, they're smaller frame, they're taking the most hits.

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Speaker 5: It's a very violent position. So I get the fragility

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Speaker 5: of it. But you still want to have a good

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Speaker 5: running back. So I like taking a running back this season.

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Speaker 5: Probably round two is when I'm taking a running back,

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Speaker 5: and then I'm with Raybond, like you want to load

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Speaker 5: up in receivers. If you have an elite quarterback fall

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Speaker 5: to you, great, you can take them this year. If

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Speaker 5: you have the opportunity to get a Travis Kelcey or

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Speaker 5: Mark Andrews. You could do that, but I do think

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Speaker 5: you want to come with the first five rounds with

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Speaker 5: the running back in the first couple, let's say, so

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Speaker 5: I can get behind the hero RB approach, and then

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Speaker 5: I'm using the middle to late rounds to really fill

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Speaker 5: out my bench with a lot of high upside running

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Speaker 5: backs because that kind of takes advantage of the fragility

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Speaker 5: and volatility the position. So I think the hero running

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Speaker 5: back approach is sort of the best of both worlds.

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Speaker 2: And to add to what Sean is saying about the

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Speaker 2: fragility of the position, so to put some numbers behind it.

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Speaker 2: When you look at running backs typically drafted in a

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Speaker 2: twelve team league, they're usually the median missed games for

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Speaker 2: a running back is usually going to be two to

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Speaker 2: three games, whereas for other positions it's usually going to

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Speaker 2: be one game, maybe two games certain years. But running

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Speaker 2: backs tend to miss usually double the games of other positions.

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Speaker 2: And if you look at the averages even more because

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Speaker 2: you'll have some of those you know, longer injuries or

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Speaker 2: ir stints or season enders. So that's why we're kind

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Speaker 2: of talking about the fragility of the position, and the

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Speaker 2: more snaps, you know, the more likely guys to get hurt,

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Speaker 2: which is why you know, some of those like those

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Speaker 2: robust running back strategies where you're taking you know, two

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Speaker 2: or three or four in the first five rounds that

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Speaker 2: can bite you in the back because you know you're

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Speaker 2: taking these guys that are going to be projected to

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Speaker 2: be bell cows, but they're also more likely to get hurt,

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Speaker 2: and you're not really balancing your team with you know,

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Speaker 2: high upside, high floor, high seiling guys at other positions

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Speaker 2: that are less likely to get hurt, so you end

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Speaker 2: up reducing the amount of startable games that you have

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Speaker 2: across your entire lineup over the course of the season.

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Speaker 1: Well, I have to say I've always been more of

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Speaker 1: a play at safe kind of fantasy football participant.

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Speaker 4: So I mean, to me, the zero RB like, I'm scared,

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Speaker 4: I'm too scared.

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Speaker 1: I think I definitely traditionally have have leaned with the

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Speaker 1: hero running back approach, where you know, my first round

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Speaker 1: pick or my first yeah, my first round pick might

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Speaker 1: be a wide receiver, but I'm definitely taking a running

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Speaker 1: back in that.

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Speaker 4: Second round then. But it sounds like both of.

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Speaker 1: You you're going wide receiver with your first pick in.

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Speaker 2: The draft more often than not. But a big thing

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Speaker 2: we should also mention early on in the podcast is

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Speaker 2: I think Sean and I would both agree very strongly

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Speaker 2: that you should not have a rigid draft strategy coming in.

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Speaker 2: So we're just trying to coin you know, these these

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Speaker 2: names have been coined, but just trying to coin these

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Speaker 2: strategy names for people to differentiate between the different potential strategies.

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Speaker 2: But this is also something that it's going to depend

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Speaker 2: on the year. It's going to depend on the draft

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Speaker 2: and who's available. Because you know, just because I, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of skew wide receiver early on, doesn't mean I

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Speaker 2: don't have any running backs ranked in my top twelve

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Speaker 2: or top twenty four or whatever. So it really just

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Speaker 2: depends on the year. And I think that's a big

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Speaker 2: piece of advice. Do not have a rigid strategy because

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Speaker 2: you want to kind of understand where the value is

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Speaker 2: by default and you know, according to the consensus ADP.

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Speaker 2: But then you can react to when things go sideways

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Speaker 2: and not as expended.

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Speaker 1: Right, So I mean, you have your plan going in

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Speaker 1: your Plan A, but you also have to react and

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Speaker 1: adapt to what's happening in real time, what's unfolding, and

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Speaker 1: to your point, who is available? So what are some

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Speaker 1: other important rules when it comes to draft strategy, Sean.

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Speaker 5: So one of my favorite things to do is, if

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Speaker 5: it's not required, I don't even draft a kicker or defense.

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Speaker 5: Those are positions that you could just stream in season

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Speaker 5: and be fine with that. So instead of drafting kicker defense,

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Speaker 5: I like to stash two more backup running backs in

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Speaker 5: the last rounds and just hold on to them before

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Speaker 5: the season starts. In tom Sometimes you can get lucky.

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Speaker 5: I remember I took James Connor with my last pick

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Speaker 5: in almost every league, and that was year that Leveon

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Speaker 5: Bell held out into the season and James Connor ended

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Speaker 5: up being a league winner. So it's like, what would

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Speaker 5: be better having a potentially winner there or having Mason

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Speaker 5: Crosby just rodding away on your bench. So I always

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Speaker 5: advise people to hang onto two extra running backs and

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Speaker 5: then by week one, you know, if none of them hit,

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Speaker 5: which is probably the most likely outcome, then you could

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Speaker 5: drop them pick up a kicker or defense. But for

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Speaker 5: when it comes to quarterbacks, another strategy that I have is,

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Speaker 5: you know, ideally I want to get a top seven quarterback,

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Speaker 5: especially this year, but if I can't, it's totally fine

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Speaker 5: to not even draft a quarterback if you don't want to,

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Speaker 5: because that's another position where during the season, if you're

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Speaker 5: in say a twelve team league that only starts one quarterback,

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Speaker 5: you're able to stream, you know, potentially a top twelve

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Speaker 5: quarterback every week just based on matchups, and sometimes you

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Speaker 5: could stumble upon a guy that you're gonna be using

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Speaker 5: every week, like last year. Gino Smith was a perfect example.

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Speaker 5: Justin Herbert his rookie season, I ended up with him

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Speaker 5: on a few teams and I didn't even draft the

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Speaker 5: quarterback that year, So you can get lucky with that. However,

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Speaker 5: if you're in a league that starts two quarterbacks or

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Speaker 5: as a super flex league.

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Speaker 3: It's exact opposite.

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Speaker 5: You want to get two to three quarterbacks as early

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Speaker 5: as possible, because again, at any given time, there's only

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Speaker 5: thirty two starting quarterbacks. You know, there's a huge drop

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Speaker 5: off between QB thirty two and QB thirty three, whereas

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Speaker 5: other positions, even if a guy's backing somebody up, they're

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Speaker 5: still going to get stats and provide value. But that's

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Speaker 5: just not a luxury have with quarterbacks. So in two

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Speaker 5: in leagues, we're you start two quarterbacks. It's a much

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Speaker 5: different strategy where you have to draft them much earlier.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm curious, Sean, because you said, especially this year

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Speaker 1: to pick up you know, a top seven quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Can you just explain why.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, in years past, you know what I call the

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Speaker 5: streaming tier quarterbacks, say twelve through twenty four, There's been

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Speaker 5: a lot of good quarterbacks, so that I would be

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Speaker 5: happily you know, streaming throughout the season, whereas we didn't

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Speaker 5: have as many elite quarterbacks like we do now. So

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Speaker 5: right now we have guys like Josh Allen, Patrick Maholmes,

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Speaker 5: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Justin Field's

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Speaker 5: really good quarterbacks that are going to be ranked in

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Speaker 5: the top five most weeks. So that gives you a

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Speaker 5: huge advantage by having one of them, whereas the streaming

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Speaker 5: tier have a lot of question marks. And I'm not

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Speaker 5: as comfortable this year. So that's why I'm saying this

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Speaker 5: is a year where I'm more comfortable taking a quarterback early.

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Speaker 1: Gotcha, And you also of course talked about just you know,

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Speaker 1: defenses and kickers not even worrying about draft of them.

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Speaker 1: I can tell you from my experience sometimes I would

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Speaker 1: feel like that peer pressure or there'd be that person

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Speaker 1: in the league that like, way too early like drafts

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Speaker 1: a defense and you're like.

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Speaker 4: Who, well, who should we be looking at a defense?

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Speaker 1: Like you got to like resist the temptation to like

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Speaker 1: just keep your eyes on your own paper. But Raymond,

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Speaker 1: I was curious if you had any other, like just

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Speaker 1: general strategies that you wanted to throw into this before

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Speaker 1: we move on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think the big one is you cannot

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Speaker 2: win your draft in the first few rounds, but you

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Speaker 2: can lose it. So the earlier you are in the draft,

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Speaker 2: the more you want to make sure you're taking players

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Speaker 2: with as little risk as possible, with as high a

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Speaker 2: floor as possible. And that's why I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: we started to, you know, go towards wide receivers more

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Speaker 2: just simply due to the miss games. You know, if

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Speaker 2: you have a running back at a wide receiver, for example,

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Speaker 2: projected for the same amount of points per game, just

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Speaker 2: know that that running back is likely to miss more games.

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Speaker 2: So sometimes you can gate risk by going with like

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Speaker 2: a hero running back strategy like Sean mentioned, or a

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Speaker 2: zero running back strategy. So that's the first day. As

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Speaker 2: you get further into the draft, that's where you want

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Speaker 2: to take more and more risks because once you get

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Speaker 2: you know, into the double digit rounds, you want upside.

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Speaker 2: You don't you're you're already drafted players that should be

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Speaker 2: you know, generally safe for your starting lineup and that

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Speaker 2: are gonna get consistent playing time. But once you get

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Speaker 2: into those double digit rounds, now you don't really need

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Speaker 2: as many high floor guys as you're looking for, uh,

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Speaker 2: you know, a high ceiling guy that maybe can either

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Speaker 2: you know, replace a starter that you already have that

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Speaker 2: and make your team even better, or or be a

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Speaker 2: trade chip or whatever not. You need those high ceiling

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Speaker 2: guys that you can see putting up startable numbers, not

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Speaker 2: just like the best RB five or RB four or

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Speaker 2: wide receiver four over the course of the season, Like

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Speaker 2: you want guys who can be you know, RB ones

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Speaker 2: or wide receiver one or two. So that that's a

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Speaker 2: big thing. And then just my philosophy, as I'm always

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Speaker 2: looking for the startable games. So for each position, it's

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Speaker 2: how can I get to the amount of startable games

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Speaker 2: that I need for my entire lineup. So you know,

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Speaker 2: you have to factor in the flex there. And that's

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Speaker 2: why you know a lot of times you can wait

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Speaker 2: on quarterback because there are you know, if you're starting one,

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Speaker 2: there's still going to be a lot of startuple games

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Speaker 2: available on the waiver wire leader in the draft. That's

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Speaker 2: why you can stream a position like that same thing

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Speaker 2: for kicker or defense. So I would always take those

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Speaker 2: positions last if I was forced to, and if not,

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Speaker 2: I would follow the strategy Seawan mentioned where you don't

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Speaker 2: even draft them and you just stash extra backs and receivers.

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Speaker 2: But safety early, upside late. That's that's the general principle.

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Speaker 4: Got it.

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Speaker 1: And you know, since you've talked about floor and ceiling,

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Speaker 1: these are terms that we hear all the time. And

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Speaker 1: you know, high floor I take that to me and

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Speaker 1: sort of low risk like you were saying, and then

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Speaker 1: you know ceiling is like they have high upside. But

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Speaker 1: since we're on that topic, Sean, do you want to

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Speaker 1: maybe just briefly like define those terms a little more specifically.

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Speaker 4: And also volatility, Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So we have to think about every player is having

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Speaker 5: a range of outcomes for what their final stat line

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Speaker 5: will be. So when we refer to someone's ceiling, we're

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Speaker 5: essentially referring to their best case scenario in their range

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Speaker 5: of outcomes. So, for example, let's take rookie running back

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Speaker 5: Zach Charbonnet for the Seahawks, for example, So he's going

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Speaker 5: to be backing up Kenneth Walker this season. He's probably

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Speaker 5: going to finish in the RB thirty five range if

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Speaker 5: both running backs are healthy all season. However, if Kenneth

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Speaker 5: Walker suffers a season ending injury before Week one, let's

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Speaker 5: say Zach Sharberney could end up being a top ten

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Speaker 5: running back this year, So we would refer to that

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Speaker 5: as his ceiling, something that is in his range of

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Speaker 5: outcomes but might not be likely.

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Speaker 3: But again, that's in his.

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Speaker 5: Range of outcomes, So when we're saying he has a

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Speaker 5: high ceiling, that's kind of what I'm referring to. And

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Speaker 5: you know, when it comes to where do draft players

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Speaker 5: like that, I think Raybon mentioned it. It's a little

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Speaker 5: bit later in the draft. You know, it's guys that

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Speaker 5: are backups. You can get them cheaper. They have a

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Speaker 5: lot of upside, but they need things to go their

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Speaker 5: way to hit there. That's kind of when you're drafting

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Speaker 5: based on ceiling. However, when it comes early in the draft,

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Speaker 5: like Raybon mentioned, that's where you can kind of lose it.

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Speaker 5: So you're you're wanting to draft guys with the high floor.

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Speaker 5: So when it comes to floor, I guess you could

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Speaker 5: say everyone has the same floor, which is getting hurt

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Speaker 5: before week win and missing the entire season getting zero points. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 5: that's part of the game. So when it comes to floor,

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Speaker 5: we're just assuming everybody's healthy. How Like, what's the worst

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Speaker 5: case scenario If everyone's healthy and a player like Keenan

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Speaker 5: Allen comes to mind as somebody that has a really

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Speaker 5: high floor. If he's healthy and plays the whole season,

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Speaker 5: you could write him in for one hundred catches, eleven

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Speaker 5: hundred yards, and six to seven touchdowns, like he's a

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Speaker 5: guarantee to put up those type of numbers. But he

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Speaker 5: doesn't have like a massive ceiling of like fifteen plus touchdowns,

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Speaker 5: So I would say he's a low, low, volatile player,

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Speaker 5: like he has a narrow range of outcomes, which early

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Speaker 5: on the draft is fantastic, that's what you want. Whereas

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Speaker 5: somebody like Kadarius Tony who's always getting hurt has a

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Speaker 5: random big game here or there. He's highly volatile. So

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Speaker 5: you have to kind of know when to draft players

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Speaker 5: like that and kind of understand what we mean by

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Speaker 5: saying a guy has a high ceiling or a high four,

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Speaker 5: and at certain points in the draft one is more

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Speaker 5: valuable than the other. So, like I said, in the

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Speaker 5: beginning of the draft, you kind of want to go

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Speaker 5: for a high four, whereas later on that's where you

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Speaker 5: want to take your shots and take guys with the high.

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Speaker 3: Ceiling right on.

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Speaker 1: Anything you want to add to that, just as far

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Speaker 1: as sort of how you assess those two things, and

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Speaker 1: also just like how you measure volatility.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so when you're looking at so again, I like

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Speaker 2: to look at startable games and kind of look at

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Speaker 2: you know, a lot of sites track like you know,

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Speaker 2: how many top ten finishes or top five finishes. You

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Speaker 2: can kind of think of it like that, like how

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Speaker 2: many of those throughout the season is a player capable

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Speaker 2: of putting up you know, max and and minimum. So

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Speaker 2: when you look at I think the best way to

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Speaker 2: explain the difference between like a high floor and a

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Speaker 2: high ceiling pick waiter in the draft is, you know,

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Speaker 2: look at like the Seattle situation, for example, if you

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Speaker 2: were choosing between you know, like DJ Dallas is a

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Speaker 2: guy who because I think sharbon A and Kennis Walker

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Speaker 2: actually hurt right now. So if you look at a

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Speaker 2: guy like DJ Dallas like he might he might only

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Speaker 2: be the third downback even if those guys are hurt,

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Speaker 2: whereas maybe a guy like Kenny McIntosh. These are just examples,

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Speaker 2: but maybe he might be a three down back, so

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Speaker 2: you would take the three down back even if DJ

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Speaker 2: Dallas might you know, his median projection because you're still

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Speaker 2: projecting Walker and sharbonn Ay to play might be higher.

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Speaker 2: So it's it's things like that. It's like who would

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Speaker 2: be the three down back, Like you don't want a

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Speaker 2: receiver to come in and just be like the still

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Speaker 2: the third option in the slot. Like maybe you know,

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Speaker 2: if if a guy like Donovan people Jones gets hurt,

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Speaker 2: you know, you'd look at a guy like Cedric Tillman

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Speaker 2: who would be his direct backup to come in and

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Speaker 2: potentially get those deep targets versus you know, Elijah Moore,

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Speaker 2: his role might not change as much. So you're just

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Speaker 2: kind of looking for those discrepancies later on in the

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Speaker 2: draft because I think as eighty as you go down

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Speaker 2: adyp especially once you get outside the starters, maybe the

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Speaker 2: top fifty, I don't think anyone really knows what to do.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's where a lot of times people

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Speaker 2: like you know, Sean and myself excel is like, there's

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Speaker 2: just these late round picks, Like I remember you could

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Speaker 2: get Isaiah Pacheco pretty late in in drafts last year,

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Speaker 2: you know, and that was the guy that you know,

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Speaker 2: we said, okay, at some point in the year, he's

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Speaker 2: going to get the starting role. So that would be

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Speaker 2: an example of a guy, you know, and I know

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Speaker 2: Jered McKinnon had a good season as well, but usually

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Speaker 2: you would take a guy like Pacheco who who could

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Speaker 2: you could see starting over a guy like McKinnon who's

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Speaker 2: usually going to top out as that third down, passing

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Speaker 2: down specialist kind of back. So those are the that's

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Speaker 2: the difference between high ceiling and high floor later in

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Speaker 2: the drafts, and you can when you're measuring these things,

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Speaker 2: you can look at something like this, the standard deviation

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Speaker 2: and fantasy points or in each stat like you know,

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Speaker 2: the standard deviation for ride receiver receiving yards game to

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Speaker 2: game is going to be you know, higher than rushing

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Speaker 2: yards or or passing yards as a percentage of the stats,

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00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: So things like that you can use to measure as well.

437
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 1: So obviously in those later rounds when you're looking to

438
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 1: find some of those higher ceiling players that you know

439
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 1: could potentially break out, especially later in the year, that's

440
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 1: oftentimes going to be filling your flex position. And Raybond,

441
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 1: I know you sort of mentioned flex before, but Sean,

442
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 1: was there anything else that you wanted to highlight just

443
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: regarding how to treat the flex position during drafts?

444
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 5: The flex position isn't really something that's like a draft strategy. Again,

445
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,719
Speaker 5: You're you're going to be using either a running back

446
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 5: or wide receiver for the flex. So you know, my

447
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 5: draft strategy of just loading up their running backs as

448
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 5: much as possible and then taking receivers with high upside.

449
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 3: We'll just sort itself out.

450
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 5: So during the season, I'm going to just be playing

451
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,199
Speaker 5: whichever one has the highest production that week. And of

452
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 5: course you can make a decision by looking at a

453
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 5: rankings week to week, but that's that's more of a

454
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 5: week to week decision than something I'm attacking in the draft.

455
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 1: Makes sense, Well, let me ask you this, sean, what

456
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 1: is your preferred draft position?

457
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 4: Not that you can necessarily control such things.

458
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 5: Right, it's outside of your control. So ideally you don't care,

459
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 5: and I don't really care. I think wherever I end up,

460
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 5: I'll be fine. I typically, you know, you typically want

461
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 5: one of the first six picks because that's where you

462
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 5: can get, you know, the elite players, and then it

463
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 5: starts to drop off a bit. So there is an

464
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 5: edge of having a first six pick when it comes

465
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 5: to the first round, but overall, in the grand scheme

466
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 5: of a draft, I actually like being in the middle

467
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 5: because one of my draft strategies is trying to figure

468
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 5: out which players will make it back to me. And

469
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 5: if you're in the middle of the draft at any

470
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 5: given time, you're you're roughly thinking, Okay, there's going to

471
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 5: be twelve players drafted before my next pick. So it's

472
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 5: a little bit easier to be in control of you know,

473
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 5: which players you take when, Whereas if you're at the

474
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 5: end the beginning or end of the draft, you usually

475
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 5: have to account for twenty two or twenty three players

476
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,719
Speaker 5: that'll get taken before your next pick, so you kind

477
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 5: of have to make reaches a little bit you're less

478
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 5: sure that some players.

479
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 3: Will make it back.

480
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 5: So being in the middle, I feel like I have

481
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 5: more control and I'm able to get the specific players

482
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 5: I want. Where if I'm at the end, I'm about

483
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 5: I'm more at the mercy of the rest of the league.

484
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 5: So that's that's why I prefer the middle of the

485
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 5: draft for the later rounds.

486
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 1: I also have found, like with a snake draft, if

487
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: you're a little too close to the turn.

488
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 4: Like sometimes like I know what I want to do

489
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 4: with my next.

490
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: Pick, and then all of a sudden, my other pick

491
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: is coming up so fast, I'm like, wait.

492
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 4: They didn't get a chance to decide yet, So hold on.

493
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 1: I actually have another question, and this is really just

494
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: my own curiosity. What are what is your preferred league

495
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: size for both of you, Like, how many teams?

496
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 2: I prefer twelve. I just think that's that's kind of

497
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 2: been the classic ten. Ten is fun, but it just

498
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 2: feels a little more a little less challenging because there's

499
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: like the player pools a little bit you know, bigger

500
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,199
Speaker 2: for the teams available. I guess you could say, so

501
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: I prefer twelve.

502
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I prefer twelve too, But to be honest, Like,

503
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 5: it'd be super fun to be in a thirty two

504
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 5: team league, right right, Bay, And we're exciting if Kyle

505
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 5: us Check is in play this way expand the more

506
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 5: players that are involved, the more I'm gonna like it.

507
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 5: So give me a thirty two team league. But other

508
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 5: than that, like the traditional twelve teamer is fine with me.

509
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 4: I have found that four team's pretty pretty fun.

510
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, it's like a little extra challenge. It is,

511
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 2: it is.

512
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 1: But so oddly, this is a little background of me

513
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: that neither of you asked for. But I was in

514
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: a league for years there was always sixteen teams always,

515
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: and it was so rough and like the waiver.

516
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:55,880
Speaker 4: Wire was so thin.

517
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: Every sounds fun finished third back to back, So I

518
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,479
Speaker 1: was very proud of that. But anyway, so and I

519
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: assume that you guys prefer PPR or.

520
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 2: Half half a focused sometimes, yeah, because sometimes and I

521
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 2: know a lot of people play full and there's not

522
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: usually a massive difference, especially in the projections. But the

523
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: thing about it is just from you know, a practical standpoint.

524
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 2: You know, if a guy catches like six passes for

525
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 2: four yards, like rather not reward him as much, So

526
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 2: I do prefer half. I think it's a good mix

527
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 2: between not rewarding it at all and not like over

528
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 2: rewarding volumes.

529
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: Let's talk about some other things that you guys have mentioned.

530
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: Obviously rankings or something that you guys do with regularity,

531
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 1: and then also ADP is a term that Raybon. I

532
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: heard you mentioned average draft position. So what are the

533
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 1: best ways to sort of utilize those two things?

534
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 4: Raybon?

535
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 2: So, the thing I think people have to know is

536
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: that rankings are necessarily where you should take a player.

537
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 2: You also have to take into account ADP. So let's

538
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: say I have a running back ranked tenth among running backs.

539
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: He's the RB ten, but his ADP is not to

540
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,719
Speaker 2: RB twenty five. If you just if there were you know,

541
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: nine other running backs off the board and then you

542
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 2: just took him as the tenth running back, you wouldn't

543
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 2: be getting good value because you could have probably waited

544
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 2: for another ten to twelve running backs to go off

545
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 2: the board and my RB ten would have still been

546
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: on the board. So you want to use average draft

547
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 2: position along with rankings to make your decision. You want

548
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: to because remember average draft position is just an average.

549
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: There's always going to be times when that doesn't go

550
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: according to plan either, So it's just more of being able.

551
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 2: Like you mentioned, Maria of you have to kind of

552
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: plan your picks out during the draft as they happen

553
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 2: and kind of react to what's going on on the board.

554
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 2: So I think that's the thing with rankings. It's the

555
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 2: rankings are you know, how are you valuing players with

556
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: you know it, but within positions and then between positions.

557
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 2: But then you have to use ADP for that final

558
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 2: you know, to determine where exactly you're going to end

559
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: up drafting these these players. That that's the final thing.

560
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: Like if you have if you just have rankings and

561
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 2: no idea of ADP, you're still probably not going to

562
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 2: have the perfect draft because you're gonna leave value on

563
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 2: the table. Even if you take guys in the order

564
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: that we're projecting them to finish, that that's still not

565
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 2: going to be enough because you could get even more

566
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 2: value by by paying attention to ADP and taking guys,

567
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 2: you know, just around where they're going to foil a

568
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 2: little ahead of it if you're if you're really targeting them.

569
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 4: Okay, so both not one or the other, Sean what else?

570
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, So just piggybacking what Raybond said, I think your

571
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,719
Speaker 5: your main goal is to take the best available player

572
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 5: based on position need that is unlikely to make it

573
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 5: back to you. That's kind of how you escape these traps.

574
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 5: So the biggest mistake I seele see people make using

575
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 5: my rankings is they just draft them to a t

576
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 5: and that's.

577
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 3: How you kill value.

578
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 5: Like if you take a guy two to three rounds

579
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 5: before he would have been selected, you're kind of killing

580
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 5: that value. So if you know a guy's going to

581
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 5: make it back to you, don't draft them. Draft the

582
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 5: best available player that won't make it back to you.

583
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 5: So having a good understanding of where people are being

584
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 5: drafted like through ADP, you get that through practice and

585
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 5: also ADP changes itself, like today, an example would be

586
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 5: Tim Patrick looks like he suffered a potentially season ending injuries.

587
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 5: So if you look at a guy like Marvin MEM's ADP,

588
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 5: it's going to be like wide receiver seventy, But if

589
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 5: you were to hop in a draft right now, he

590
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 5: might go like wide receiver fifty five or something like that.

591
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 3: So you just have to be.

592
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 5: Understanding of like where ADPs might currently be or they

593
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 5: might go so that's half of the draft battle is

594
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 5: trying to guess when and where people go. But the

595
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 5: reason you need to do that is because you need

596
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 5: to maximize you know, our rankings and getting guys before

597
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 5: they're taking off the board, not you know, two or

598
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 5: three rounds before. That's how you kill you know, the value.

599
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 5: So being aware of current ADP trends I think is huge.

600
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: Well, of course, by doing all of this stuff that

601
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 1: you guys have already discussed, hopefully.

602
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 4: You're going to have a quote unquote good draft.

603
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: I mean, I know draft grades are given out immediately after,

604
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: and I'm not really sure how accurate those are because

605
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: obviously so much can change throughout the year.

606
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 4: But is there anything else that.

607
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 1: You recommend raybond to just sort of mitigate having a

608
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: bust in the draft or just bad picks?

609
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, well the first thing, don't pay attention

610
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: to those post draft grades. They they're all they're kind

611
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: of algorithm based and they're never going to fully capture that.

612
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 2: Maybe one day they will be able to, but I

613
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 2: haven't seen any yet that have captured kind of the

614
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 2: waters of team building.

615
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 5: They hate my teams because I don't have a kicker

616
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 5: or defense.

617
00:29:54,120 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 2: Exactly, but I think yet so to avoid bust, it's

618
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: it differs by positions. I think there's always things you

619
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 2: know you can look out for for each position. With

620
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 2: running backs, you know, it's you know, age, age is

621
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: something where you know the older running back gets especially

622
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 2: once you get past you know, twenty seven to twenty eight,

623
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: I think injuries are more likely and just decline is

624
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 2: more likely. Wide receivers, you always want to kind of

625
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,239
Speaker 2: look at the quarterback involved. And also you know if

626
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 2: it's a team where you're just kind of assuming a

627
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 2: guy is going to be the number one, but there's

628
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 2: you know a lot of newer players or rookies or

629
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 2: second year guys on the team. Remember those guys tend

630
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: to take jumps, so that could kind of there could

631
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: be some there's could be some risk there with those guys.

632
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 2: And then I think on the opposite side, you know

633
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 2: also pay attention to certain trends within positions, Like wide

634
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 2: receivers tend to break out in their second or third year.

635
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 2: They tend to take a big leap, so that's something

636
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 2: you usually want to factor in. Rookie running backs tend

637
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 2: to you know, be productive right away, and a lot

638
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 2: of times you can you know, the un certainty is

639
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 2: where you're going to get those edges, So where things

640
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: different from last year, because anyone can look at, you know,

641
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: some stats from last year kind of say okay, well

642
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 2: that's roughly what this player is going to do this year.

643
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 2: But I think it's a lot harder for people to

644
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 2: accurately project rookies or project the improvements that a you know,

645
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: second year player might make or the drop offs that

646
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 2: some of you know, the older veterans might have. So

647
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: that's a lot of times where you can find value,

648
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 2: you know, stocking up on second year receivers, third year receivers,

649
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 2: stocking up on rookie running backs, even if going into

650
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 2: week one it doesn't necessarily look like they have you know,

651
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: a path to like a startable value in week one.

652
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 2: You know, there Sean does his running back upside ranks

653
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 2: where he actually looks at, you know, how how would

654
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 2: this running back perform if the starter got hurt? And

655
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 2: that's how you got to kind of think about it.

656
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: So I think rookie running backs, second, second and third

657
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 2: year receivers, those are some things you can do to

658
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 2: kind of get upside and then just avoiding you know,

659
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 2: bad situations, you know teams, you know, offensive line issues

660
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 2: could could could could be an issue for certain running

661
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 2: back or even certain receivers. A quarterback isn't going to

662
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 2: have enough time to throw down the field, so paying

663
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 2: attention to things like that is going to be crucial.

664
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 2: And then for tight ends, you're always looking for routes run.

665
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 2: So if a tight end doesn't look like he's gonna play,

666
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 2: you know, the majority of the snaps like a guy

667
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: like like a Mike get sick. You last year where

668
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: it was like, Okay, is he gonna be out there

669
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: when they need a blocker? No, and then that kind

670
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: of tanked his values. So I'm just kind of being

671
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 2: aware of those kind of things. It's very player specific,

672
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 2: I don't I think one of the things in fantasy

673
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 2: you don't want to do is over generalize, like there

674
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: are some broader trends and things to look out for,

675
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: but then you still have to go and say, Okay,

676
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: does this actually apply now to this player or not.

677
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 2: You know, it's just it's just a starting point. So

678
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: you know that, and that's that's where you know, guys

679
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: like Sean and I come and you know, listen, to

680
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 2: our podcast, our tweets and things like that.

681
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, Sean thoughts on draft bus.

682
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean bus happen.

683
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 5: I make mistakes all the time, ending up with a

684
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 5: handful of bus on my team. You know, they're just

685
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 5: gonna bust or get hurt. Most of the time. It's

686
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 5: out of your control. So that's why I do things

687
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 5: like raft a ton of running backs late in the

688
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 5: draft and stash them on my bench.

689
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 3: It's sort of insurance for that. You know.

690
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 5: Like we've said off the top, it's a position that

691
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 5: can have a lot of injuries, volatility where guys you know,

692
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 5: leapfrog the starter because they're struggling. So there's a lot

693
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 5: of things that can go wrong with running back, and

694
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 5: I would say to be especially careful with running backs

695
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 5: and the rounds three through six range every season. You know,

696
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 5: this is commonly referred to as the dead zone. I

697
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 5: prefer frozen pond, and I'm not saying you need to

698
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 5: completely avoid it. Usually there's one or two backs in

699
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 5: this range I love every year. Last year I targeted

700
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 5: Tony Pollard heavily in this range. This is the range

701
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 5: where you could have grabbed Josh Jacobs. So there are

702
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 5: league winners in this range, So I try to key

703
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 5: in on a couple players if they fall to me, great. However,

704
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 5: the way you get in trouble in this range is

705
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 5: you just take a running back just because you think

706
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 5: you need one. So that's sort of how people get

707
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 5: in trouble in this range. So that's kind of one

708
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 5: of the ways that I avoid getting busts is avoiding

709
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 5: running backs. I'm luke warm about in this range just

710
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 5: because they do bust at such a high rate based

711
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 5: on all the reasons we've laid out for running backs.

712
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 5: So that's that's basically my number one way of avoiding

713
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 5: bus at running backs.

714
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:16,959
Speaker 2: And just to add to that, you know, we mentioned

715
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 2: running backs tend to get hurt more so paying attention

716
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 2: to the preseason injuries as well, because just appearing on

717
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 2: the injury report makes a player more likely to appear

718
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: on the injury report in the future. And you know,

719
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 2: like there's a good but a quarter about twenty five

720
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 2: to thirty percent of players who are questionable tend to

721
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: miss game. Tend to miss a game if you miss one.

722
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: The average, you know, if you miss one game, the

723
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: likelyhaders are usually missing more than one game. So a

724
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: lot of times I think I notice every year guys

725
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 2: are usually overvalued that are hurt, you know, like JK.

726
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 2: Dobbins comes to mind last year. This year, you know,

727
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: Breesce Hall and Javonte Williams are guys I think we

728
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 2: have to be very careful with. And then you look

729
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 2: at a guy like Jamison Williams, who you know, Sean

730
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 2: and I both think is just agrees egregiously overvalued. I

731
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 2: think he's going in the top fifty receivers. He's gonna

732
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 2: miss six games and this is not even an injury

733
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 2: or it's like we know he's gonna miss six games.

734
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 2: So like when you factor that out, yes, like there's

735
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:15,760
Speaker 2: good you can play another player you know while he's out,

736
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 2: But again it's it's limiting your your max upside because you're,

737
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 2: you're the ideal situation would be the draft a guy

738
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 2: which you're you know, with that pick that could potentially

739
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 2: give you seventeen games of upside or thirteen or more

740
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 2: than ten or eleven, you know. So I think injuries

741
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 2: and miss games are something that it like just at

742
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 2: having an understanding of first of all, that running backs

743
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 2: are gonna be twice as likely and second of all,

744
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 2: that guys that start the year and that are already hurt,

745
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 2: they tend to be overvalid because people tend to kind

746
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 2: of brush it off, and the average fantasy drafter is

747
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,919
Speaker 2: not necessarily paying attention to every beat report and every

748
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: piece of news and updating the way we are. So

749
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 2: it's like to us, it's like Jesus, this guy has

750
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 2: been hurt for like the entire camp, but like to

751
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,919
Speaker 2: somebody else, it's like, Okay, he was good last year.

752
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: He's questionable for Week one, but like that's so is

753
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 2: every football player, right, you know, it's football, so like,

754
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 2: but like, really pay attention to those injuries, and especially

755
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 2: with what kind of injuries because you know it sounds

756
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 2: like a cliche, but soft tissue injuries linger. If it's

757
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 2: a guy like you know, a note for two, a

758
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 2: tongue of Biola, for example, if he gets a concussion,

759
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,399
Speaker 2: he's probably missing multiple weeks, you know, if not more,

760
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 2: just if he gets a concussion period, which would be

761
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 2: different from a lot of players. So you know, just

762
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: kind of knowing things like that and making sure that

763
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 2: as you're drafting, you have the most information possible and

764
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 2: you're not necessarily stepping into some of those risks when

765
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 2: you could avoid less. It's an appropriate risk. Like I said,

766
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 2: it's if it's the twelfth round, sure, take a chance

767
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 2: on the injured guy is a lot better. But especially

768
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 2: in those first five, six, seven rounds, that's where you're

769
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 2: really gonna go wrong. And a lot of times those

770
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 2: running backs, you know, those three to six running backs

771
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 2: don't work out as much because again they get hurt

772
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: more and then what happens those running backs in round

773
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: seven through twelve, those are the guys that are going

774
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 2: to be taking their place. So that's that's kind of why.

775
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 2: That's kind of how you have to look at it

776
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 2: when it comes to bus just kind of look at

777
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 2: those misgame risks for each player.

778
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:12,280
Speaker 1: And this is why you have to follow our fantasy experts.

779
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 1: We're talking with Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner here on

780
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast, because you guys do put so

781
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 1: much work in to your projections, to your rankings, and

782
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: you're doing all of that research that you know the

783
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 1: average listener of this show like probably doesn't have time

784
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: to do. So with that in mind, Sean, what is

785
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: your process for just researching and doing prep leading up

786
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 1: to a draft.

787
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 5: Well for me personally, you know, I'm I'm creating projections

788
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 5: and updating them constantly, so I have that edge going

789
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 5: with me. But I think something that everybody should do,

790
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 5: including myself, is to just do as many mock drafts

791
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 5: as possible, or you know, take actual best ball teams

792
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 5: because you're you're going to be in drafts with people

793
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 5: competing for money. So that's been the best way that

794
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 5: I prepare for the season is just draft as many

795
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 5: best ball teams as possible because, as always, practice makes perfect.

796
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 5: So by doing a ton of drafts, you kind of

797
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 5: know where your weaknesses are. Like some of my first

798
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 5: initial drafts, I'm like stump, like I know what part

799
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 5: of the draft. I'm like, I don't know what the

800
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 5: hell to do, So I go back, I come over

801
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 5: the plan. So it's it's one of those things where

802
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 5: you get a sense of how other people are drafting,

803
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 5: where your you know, weak spots might be, and you

804
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 5: just kind of get a better overall plan by just

805
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 5: doing a lot of drafts.

806
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,760
Speaker 3: So that's that's my advice.

807
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 5: If you don't want to like Poney up money and

808
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 5: do real best ball drafts, just do mock drafts on

809
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 5: any of the sites and you know you're going to

810
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 5: get better and have a better understanding on like what

811
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:45,919
Speaker 5: your overall strategy should be, right.

812
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 2: Bn you agree, Yeah, absolutely, I think I think you know,

813
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 2: getting whether it's you could do a draft simulator, you

814
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 2: could do, I prefer Best Ball Draft because I like

815
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 2: to have some skin on each draft. I'm past the

816
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 2: point where if I'm like, if I'm going to spend like,

817
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 2: you know, an an hour on a draft, I need

818
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 2: to be I need to have some upside there. But

819
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 2: that's just me. But but to a larger point, I

820
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 2: think it's just understanding kind of the tiers going in

821
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 2: and Sean you know, during the week, does the you know,

822
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 2: tier divides players in the tiers at each position, just

823
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:21,720
Speaker 2: understanding the drop offs because you know there'd be certain

824
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 2: tiers that you want to take as many players as possible,

825
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 2: and there'd be some tiers where you don't you want

826
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 2: to take like a player as close to the the

827
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: bottom as possibly, like you don't want to start a

828
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 2: tier and like you're probably getting the worst value there.

829
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 2: So you know, just kind of understanding that I think

830
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 2: is is big and there's always going to be you know,

831
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 2: like there's a few players that just kind of stand out.

832
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 2: Like I would never say, do not draft, because I

833
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 2: think there's a point at a draft where everyone becomes valuable.

834
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 2: But there's certain players that you could see like they're

835
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,280
Speaker 2: probably not ever going to get to be as valuable

836
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: as you think they are based on their ADP. So

837
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 2: like guys like Jamison Williams for me, like he's a

838
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 2: guy I know I'm not going to draft. So just

839
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: kind of having an idea of guys that you you know,

840
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 2: you really think are well over valued, guys that you

841
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 2: know kind of targets that you think are generally going

842
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 2: to be undervalued, and kind of building your team around that.

843
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 2: And like you know, you mentioned Maria that like some

844
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 2: certain strategies like maybe as zero RB, you know, it's

845
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: kind of scary. So that's why that's where no, that's

846
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 2: where these like mock drafts or best balls come in,

847
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 2: because that's why I say, like, hey, like this year's

848
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 2: a little different for me. I am kind of drafted

849
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: running backs later on average because I've looked at my

850
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 2: teams and compared them. You know, when I take you know,

851
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 2: two running backs in the first four or five rounds

852
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 2: to teams where I take one or or none even

853
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: and I'm like, I feel a lot better about this team.

854
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 2: And you know, there's something where you can always you know,

855
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: you can always post your your your teams online to

856
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 2: get feedback from from us or the community or whoever.

857
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 2: So you know, I think it is important to kind

858
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 2: of go through your draft in some type of way

859
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: and kind of see how your team would look out,

860
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 2: would would look from from different draft spots, or if

861
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 2: you know your draft spot you could keep, you could

862
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 2: just do that one. But yeah, that preparation is key

863
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: because that there's nothing that's going to replace knowing how

864
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 2: your team or getting examples of how your team is

865
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 2: actually going to look.

866
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 1: At the end, I confess that I haven't done a

867
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 1: lot of mock drafting and my fantasy career, and that's

868
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: probably why I have based some of this you know,

869
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 1: draft day anxiety that I discussed.

870
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 4: But look, there's so much that happens.

871
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 1: I mean, the draft is one thing, but you know,

872
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 1: in season management is maybe even more important because that's

873
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 1: a week to week and it's a constant thing. So

874
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 1: all right, you get through the draft, it's time to

875
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 1: set the lineups.

876
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 4: How do you do that? Sean and how do game

877
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 4: scripts play into it.

878
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 5: So again, I'm basing most of my decisions based on

879
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 5: the projections I'm making. And one of the things when

880
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 5: it comes to game scripts, that is an important part

881
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,240
Speaker 5: when it comes to Raybon or my projections, because players'

882
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 5: roles can change based on game scripts. So just when

883
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 5: it comes to like running back, for example, let's look

884
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 5: at Week one. You know, the Lions are six and

885
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 5: a half point underdogs facing the Chiefs on the road.

886
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 5: So when it comes to you know, Jamior Gibbs, a

887
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 5: pass catching back versus Dame Montgomery, who's probably gonna be

888
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 5: more of the early down back. That's a game where

889
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 5: there's gonna be more passing volume and a player like

890
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 5: Gibbs is probably gonna be more involved while Montgomery less.

891
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 5: So and on the flip side, you have the Commanders

892
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 5: who are a six point, you know, home favorite. They're

893
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 5: not going to be big favorites very often during the season,

894
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 5: but they will Week one against Cardinals. So Brian Robinson

895
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 5: for the Commanders is typically gonna thrive and a more

896
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 5: you know, positive game script like that, so he's probably

897
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 5: gonna be more in play than the rest of the season.

898
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 5: Whereas Antonio Gibson, their pass catching back will probably get

899
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 5: a downgrade. And I'm not saying you should start or

900
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 5: set any of these guys, but game scripts do have

901
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,720
Speaker 5: a pretty big influence when it comes to a players

902
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 5: production because it does dictate, you know, if a team's

903
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 5: going to be more likely to throw more or run more.

904
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 5: So that's that's a big part when it comes to

905
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:02,919
Speaker 5: making projections and rankings.

906
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,840
Speaker 1: Raybon, what about you, how do you go about setting

907
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 1: your lineups or what's the biggest thing that goes into it?

908
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:13,879
Speaker 2: So I think you know game scripts aren't are very

909
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 2: important and that you know from a like the way

910
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 2: we're doing projections is at least the way I do

911
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 2: him is I'm usually my I have like a baseline

912
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 2: for every player what he would do against like a

913
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 2: league average opponent. Same thing for teams, how often would

914
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 2: they pass and run versus a league average defense? And

915
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 2: then you know, for each week, I'll go and I'll

916
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 2: have like my projected spread. For example, if a team

917
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 2: is a ten point favorite, they're going to pass less

918
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 2: than they would against you know, the average team, which

919
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 2: would you would be a pickum or something. So you know,

920
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 2: kind of looking at it like that, but it's all

921
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 2: going to come down to rankings and like that's that's

922
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 2: you know, what Sean and I are doing, so you know,

923
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,359
Speaker 2: it's really like all that is going to be kind

924
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,359
Speaker 2: of accounted for. But yes, I think when it comes

925
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 2: to gamescripts, they're very helpful just to know some general things. Quarterbacks,

926
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 2: for example, highly correlated to a team's implied point total.

927
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 2: So that means like if a team is a ten

928
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 2: point favorite with an over under of you know, fifty,

929
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: that means you know, they're gonna they're they're projected to

930
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 2: score thirty points or whatever, so like that, that's a

931
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: really good score. So the more implied points generally, the

932
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 2: higher quarterbacks gonna score. Same thing goes for defense for kickers,

933
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 2: and then for defenses it's the oppositees. You know, the

934
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 2: lower the implied points for the opponent, the better you

935
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 2: are with defenses. So I think looking at things like

936
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 2: the Vegas lines or you know, if you happen to

937
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 2: be doing your own game projections I'm sure certain people do,

938
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 2: or you just you know, maybe you look at like

939
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 2: five thirty eight or you know, one of those other models,

940
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:42,799
Speaker 2: whatever you do, like those can help with with those

941
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 2: those kind of onesie positions, and then you know, if

942
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 2: you're looking. There's also the other thing to think about

943
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: when you're sitting a lineup, and this can happen, I

944
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: think a lot more of late in the year when

945
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 2: you're kind of posturing for playoff position. But if you're

946
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 2: in a situation where you feel like you're an underdog

947
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 2: in your lineup, then you may want to take a

948
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,399
Speaker 2: put a more riskier player in your line That goes

949
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 2: back to like, for example, I'm trying to think of,

950
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 2: like who's like your average slot receiver these days, who

951
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 2: doesn't like Isaiah mcken. Oh yeah, yeah, that's perfect. Actually,

952
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 2: Tyra Boyd, there we go. Yeah, because I'm Dame. McKenzie

953
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 2: might not even win that job, but yeah, Tyler Boyd

954
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 2: is perfect example, Tyer Boyd. You know what he's gonna

955
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 2: do most weeks, He's gonna get, you know, two to

956
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: four catches for like thirty to fifty yards, probably maybe

957
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 2: a touchdown every two or three games. Whereas you may

958
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: have a let's say a rookie like let's say Michael

959
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 2: Wilson is starting, is like he's a starter for the Cardinals,

960
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: and you're like okay, like you know Mark, he's brown

961
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 2: is banged up. You know this guy might this guy

962
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 2: might you know, kind of bust out here. He might

963
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 2: give me a higher ceiling or just like a deep

964
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: like a DJ Chark, a guy who's gonna get more

965
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 2: deep balls thrown to him, So you might want to

966
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: start him. If you're an underdog, if you're a favorite,

967
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 2: you just need those three to five you know, you

968
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 2: know those three to five catches. Then you start a

969
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 2: guy like Tyra Boyd. So that's the other consideration. And

970
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 2: if you're if you're ahead on Monday night, uh, and

971
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 2: you don't get a bonus for like scoring more points

972
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 2: when you're like ahead by only a few points. Just

973
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 2: you could take a guy out of your lineup too,

974
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 2: because the last thing you want is I got to

975
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:20,280
Speaker 2: like fumble, get hurt, get like minus two point six,

976
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: leave the game and you lose by like a tenth

977
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 2: of a point because you left him in thinking. Yeah,

978
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 2: so like thinking about things like that, and you know

979
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:32,399
Speaker 2: there's certain things you can also do, like if later

980
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 2: in the year, you know attrition is gonna play a

981
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 2: big part, and if you see your opponent is weak

982
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 2: at running back and it probably has to pick up

983
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 2: somebody barring the injury report. If you have the space

984
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 2: on your roster and you're not really using like maybe

985
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 2: the last one or two spots because your team's in

986
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 2: good shape, you can you can drop, like maybe you

987
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 2: have like a sixth wide receiver, you can drop that

988
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 2: six wide receiver and try to pick up, you know,

989
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 2: a running back that then your opponent won't be able

990
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 2: to pick up. So there are things like that, And

991
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 2: of course, if you have a waiver claim, you might

992
00:46:58,640 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 2: not want to waste it, but so it depends on,

993
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,879
Speaker 2: you know, the type of free agency year league has.

994
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 2: But things like that you can pay attention to to

995
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 2: get a little bit of an.

996
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 3: Edge as well.

997
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 4: Well, I'm glad you mentioned waivers. We're going to get

998
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 4: into that in just a second.

999
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: But I think like as you were describing that, I

1000
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 1: was just having flashbacks. I feel like most, you know,

1001
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 1: fantasy casual players have been in that situation where the

1002
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 1: obvious play is to start your stud but like a

1003
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 1: potential game script or some other factor is telling you,

1004
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: like maybe this other player that you wouldn't usually start,

1005
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 1: it might be riskier, like might be the better play.

1006
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 1: And that's like the internal debate and like you're looking

1007
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 1: for that, like you're just looking for that decision, like

1008
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 1: do I go this way or that way? So I

1009
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 1: think that's probably one of the biggest challenges on a

1010
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 1: week to week basis, and then the other the other

1011
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 1: thing is the commitment to you know, paying attention to

1012
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: the waiver wire and also sort of playing a little

1013
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,280
Speaker 1: defense like you were talking about Raybond with in your league,

1014
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: paying attention to other people's rosters, identifying needs that you

1015
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 1: might have and where you could maybe find some leverage

1016
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 1: and potentially trade with people.

1017
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 4: I was like, I've in my.

1018
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 1: Again, my career been like pretty anti trade trades, like

1019
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:18,879
Speaker 1: freaked me out, especially.

1020
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,440
Speaker 4: When somebody offers me one. I'm like, whoa, wha, wha,

1021
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 4: what's the catch here? You know. So I'm very defense

1022
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:27,360
Speaker 4: defensive when it comes to trades. So Sean, can you relate?

1023
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, So a lot of my leagues, no one

1024
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,240
Speaker 5: trades with me. Like my buddies league, they don't trade.

1025
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 5: They think I'm trying to, you know, siphon off their

1026
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 5: best player or something. But trusts that trades in general

1027
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 5: are tough to rely on. It really depends on your league. Mates,

1028
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,439
Speaker 5: and if they're willing to do that, if they're willing

1029
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 5: to go through with them. But if you're in a

1030
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 5: league that loves trading, it's a great way to you know,

1031
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,439
Speaker 5: sell high or buy low on players and just alter

1032
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 5: your roster based on what your current needs are. There's

1033
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 5: a million examples I could use when it comes to trades,

1034
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 5: but one I could think of is like, let's say

1035
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 5: you're eight to no and it looks like you're destined

1036
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 5: for the playoffs, and you're just your team building process

1037
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:16,240
Speaker 5: should be looking towards the playoffs, like looking at players

1038
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 5: that maybe have good matchups in week sixteen and seventeen

1039
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 5: and maybe try to acquire them for cheap. Another example

1040
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 5: would be if a player like Saquon Barkley, Let's say

1041
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 5: he suffers a multi weekendary where he's going to be

1042
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 5: out the next three games and then he should be

1043
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 5: fine for the fantas playoffs. What I would do is

1044
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 5: try to get that player, especially if that's a team

1045
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 5: that's fighting to make the playoffs. You know they're four

1046
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 5: and six or whatever, they need to kind of sacrifice

1047
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 5: short term value or to make the playoffs. So that's

1048
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 5: a trade that could be mutually beneficial for both people.

1049
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 5: So again, there's a million different ways to kind of

1050
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:52,880
Speaker 5: deal with trades in what you should or shouldn't do,

1051
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 5: but it is a good way to kind of sell

1052
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,360
Speaker 5: higher by a low or just build your team based

1053
00:49:57,400 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 5: on current needs.

1054
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 4: Raymond, do you want to add any thing to that.

1055
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the the Usually the ideal trade is

1056
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 2: when you're trading away multiple players of lesser value for

1057
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 2: a stud. Usually that's the way you're gonna put your

1058
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 2: team in the best position. If you drafted, well what

1059
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:17,800
Speaker 2: you're gonna you're gonna hope that some of the players

1060
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:21,320
Speaker 2: because again, you want to be taking you know, higher ceiling,

1061
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: you know, higher risk guys later in the draft. If

1062
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 2: a couple of those guys pan out and you weren't

1063
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 2: planning on them to be your starters anyway, a lot

1064
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 2: of times you can package you know, uh, maybe you know,

1065
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 2: two wide receiver threes and maybe a number two running

1066
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 2: back for like a stud wide receiver or or a

1067
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 2: stud running back because you know, certain teams might be,

1068
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 2: as Sean mentioned, fighting for playoffs position and they're just

1069
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 2: decimated by injuries. They just need the bodies. So that's

1070
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 2: why it's always important to I usually don't like to

1071
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 2: hold more than one quarterback or tight end if I'm

1072
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: if you only have to start one on my roster,

1073
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 2: because you want to load up on running backs and

1074
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 2: wide receivers because those are your trade ships, especially running backs.

1075
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 2: Like if you have you know, five startable running backs,

1076
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 2: like you you can control your entire league in terms

1077
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 2: of trading because you know most people are gonna have

1078
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 2: you know, one to two if that so. I think

1079
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 2: that's really how the ideal is usually to to package

1080
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:20,399
Speaker 2: multiple lesser guys for a stud running back or a

1081
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 2: stud wide receiver that would be difficult to replace or acquire,

1082
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,480
Speaker 2: you know, otherwise on the waiver wire, you know, once

1083
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 2: you've already drafted.

1084
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 1: You know, it's something important to look out for because

1085
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 1: I always have felt like there's usually like that one

1086
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:35,720
Speaker 1: person in the league that tries to like bait everybody

1087
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 1: else into like a bad trade and just will like

1088
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 1: offer so many trade scenarios and you always have to

1089
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,880
Speaker 1: like pause and like, am I really taking this seriously?

1090
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 1: But you know, I think I have seen that a

1091
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:50,839
Speaker 1: lot where it's like, Okay, it looks exciting because there's

1092
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:52,919
Speaker 1: like three players for one and then you like look

1093
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: and you're like, well, these players all suck.

1094
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 4: So like why am I going to trade? You know,

1095
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 4: definitely something to look out for.

1096
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 1: And how about waivers, Sean, what what are your thoughts

1097
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 1: on waivers?

1098
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean when it comes to waivers, it's really

1099
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 5: one of the key ways to really build a championship roster.

1100
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 5: And there's a few guys every year that end up

1101
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,760
Speaker 5: being league winners that you could have scooped up on waivers.

1102
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 5: And when it comes to waivers, I think it's it's

1103
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 5: key to know when to burn your number one waiver

1104
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 5: or blow your fab budget. Typically I do this on

1105
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 5: a running back who presents you know, like multiple weeks

1106
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 5: of value for the rest of the season as opposed

1107
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 5: to just a couple games. So for example, you know,

1108
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:43,319
Speaker 5: if a backup running back who's gonna be filling in

1109
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 5: for running back that's just going to be missing one

1110
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 5: or two games, I wouldn't go all in on that

1111
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 5: unless you know there must win games where you need

1112
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 5: them to go to the playoffs. The times I go

1113
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 5: all in is when you know starting running back gets

1114
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 5: a season ending injury and now the backup is going

1115
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 5: to start the rest of the season, presumably that's the

1116
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 5: time to go all in. Kind of goes back to

1117
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:08,240
Speaker 5: what Raybo was talking about startable games. You're gonna get

1118
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 5: the most startable games from back like that. So those

1119
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 5: are typically the situations that you really want to just

1120
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:17,359
Speaker 5: like go all in spend your number one waiver or

1121
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:21,719
Speaker 5: your FAB budget. But again it depends based on the situation,

1122
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 5: but usually those are the situations that I like to

1123
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 5: go all in.

1124
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:26,840
Speaker 3: I think with.

1125
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 2: But first of all, running backs are by far the

1126
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 2: way to spend your FAB budget. Like a lot of times,

1127
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: even if I need to pick up a tight end

1128
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 2: to quarterback, you know something, I will never use my

1129
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 2: waiver priority. I'll just let the rest of the week

1130
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 2: kind of bid on guys, and then I'll just use

1131
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 2: like once everyone's free to get free to just pick

1132
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:45,840
Speaker 2: up That's when I'll pick up those positions. So you

1133
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 2: kind of want to save most of your budget for

1134
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 2: running backs, and the later you get in the season,

1135
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:53,880
Speaker 2: the more you can kind of adjust it. So I

1136
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 2: would say, don't go, you know, don't blow your budget early,

1137
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 2: because like even if there is a running back that

1138
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:00,880
Speaker 2: looks great, like let's say a guy goes down in

1139
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 2: Week one, you know, yes, there might be a running

1140
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: back coming in that now has a lot more value,

1141
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: but there also could be the possibility there's still a

1142
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 2: long time for that running back to get in because

1143
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 2: now you're still in week two. So you know, the

1144
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 2: further you get into the season, the more you can

1145
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 2: kind of go. You know, you'll you'll know when to

1146
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 2: go bigger on one specific back. But also if you

1147
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 2: have some budget left over for later, then you can

1148
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 2: start using it. You know, maybe there's a key matchup

1149
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 2: that you have to win, and there's like one defense

1150
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 2: that's just heads and you know, head over here is

1151
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 2: above every other defense you could pick up and you're streaming,

1152
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 2: maybe you do spend a couple of dollars on that defense,

1153
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:36,479
Speaker 2: you know, because it will make your team that much better.

1154
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:39,120
Speaker 2: So I would say a key is also just don't

1155
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: look to like blow your budget early. If just if

1156
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 2: you start oh and one or oh and two, it's

1157
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 2: not the end of the world. Trust the process, like

1158
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:47,800
Speaker 2: because it's gonna it's what if you start oh and

1159
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:50,880
Speaker 2: two and you eventually rebound and now you're sitting at

1160
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 2: like six and five with no faa B budget, You're

1161
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 2: gonna be in a lot worse position right than you know,

1162
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:00,399
Speaker 2: than the alternative. So like, if you have to bad team,

1163
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 2: sometimes bad teams are just gonna happen. Is nothing you

1164
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 2: can do to fix it. But like an FAAB is

1165
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 2: not like a waiver, is not like a massive fix

1166
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:10,480
Speaker 2: to Like you need to kind of spread that out

1167
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 2: because again, you need to be able to react to

1168
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 2: not only your own injuries, but if something else comes

1169
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:17,399
Speaker 2: up in the league, maybe it's blocking another person. So yeah,

1170
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 2: don't blow it early and try to save it mostly

1171
00:55:20,080 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 2: for running back, especially if you are using it earlier.

1172
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 4: BAB Free agent acquisition budget.

1173
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:29,799
Speaker 1: You know, I am curious if either of you use

1174
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:33,280
Speaker 1: any sort of tool to determine how much to bid

1175
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:36,760
Speaker 1: on a player. Does that just depend on your situation,

1176
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 1: the league situation, or.

1177
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,799
Speaker 4: Do you look at a percentage? Is there anything we

1178
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:47,239
Speaker 4: should know in that regard Sean, It.

1179
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 3: Really depends on the situation.

1180
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 5: Sometimes I like to photo a poll to see what

1181
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 5: other people and other leagues are thinking. I think the

1182
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 5: community aspect of that helps, just get a sense, like

1183
00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 5: are people spending thirty percent of their budget on it?

1184
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 5: So just getting an idea that helps. But again, it

1185
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 5: really depends on the situation. If you know there's somebody

1186
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 5: in your league that really needs a running back and

1187
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 5: they have one hundred percent of their fab left, you

1188
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 5: just have to assume they're gonna make a gigantic bed.

1189
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 3: Things like that. Knowing your league.

1190
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 5: If it's a bunch of friends, you should know your league,

1191
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 5: and then that that would give you an edge of

1192
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 5: just like actually knowing the people. But again, it's one

1193
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:28,839
Speaker 5: of those things that you just kind of have to guess.

1194
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 5: There's no like scientific way to do it because all

1195
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 5: it takes is one person out bid you.

1196
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 3: So it comes down to just how much are you.

1197
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 5: Willing to bid on the player, and then if you

1198
00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 5: really like them, go a little bit higher. But again,

1199
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:44,359
Speaker 5: I like to put out some polls on Twitter tis

1200
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 5: or whatever it's called now x so just to get

1201
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:49,839
Speaker 5: just get a rough sense of what other people are

1202
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 5: thinking outside of you know, my thoughts.

1203
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:55,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's gonna be no perfect way to determine it

1204
00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 2: because it's going to depend on you know, the player,

1205
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 2: the individual players available in your league, and as Sean mentioned,

1206
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 2: the kind of behavior. You know, how aggressive or or

1207
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 2: unaggressive are you know people, So a lot of times

1208
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 2: you can just kind of think of it. As you know,

1209
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 2: if if you think of it as a percentage for

1210
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 2: you know, seventeen, you know, it's roughly six percent per week, right,

1211
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 2: so if you kind of think, okay, you know, how

1212
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 2: again you can go back to startable games. If you

1213
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 2: think this guy is going to start for for give

1214
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 2: you startable games for eight games, then you know, maybe

1215
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 2: you'd be willing to go up to you know, somewhere

1216
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 2: near fifty percent, you know, But again it all depends

1217
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 2: on also how many guy like how big is your league,

1218
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 2: how many guys are available? Like it, you know, is

1219
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 2: there more than what one like great game or player

1220
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 2: available per week on your waiver wide? Like all these

1221
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 2: things come in, So there's never going to be an

1222
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: exact number. But I would say start by just kind

1223
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 2: of dividing each week into like a six percent chunk.

1224
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 2: And then you know, the more you're saving, the more

1225
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 2: flexibility you have to be a little wrong about, you know,

1226
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 2: how much you should spend. And it's more about I

1227
00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 2: think the confidence level and you know, maybe like a max.

1228
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 2: So you know, sometimes Sean and I will write up

1229
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 2: waivers and we might give a percentage like that, like

1230
00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 2: that's the max. I would spend on him now if

1231
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 2: you can get it. It's just like ADP. If your

1232
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:13,200
Speaker 2: league is not that aggressive, you probably go a little lower,

1233
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 2: but you just you don't want to overspend to the

1234
00:58:16,160 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 2: point where you have literally zero flexibility in the last

1235
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:21,800
Speaker 2: few weeks where it could be the most important few weeks.

1236
00:58:21,880 --> 00:58:24,240
Speaker 2: So I say you can start by just kind of

1237
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 2: dividing it up into percentages and then kind of go

1238
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 2: from there and just kind of like if you're following

1239
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:31,439
Speaker 2: like experts, look at how confident they are what they're

1240
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:34,160
Speaker 2: saying about the player, or if they give a percentage

1241
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 2: or you know, you can kind of go off that.

1242
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 2: But there's no it's it's more of an art than

1243
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 2: a science.

1244
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 4: Any other any other parting words, Sean.

1245
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 5: Before we go, just again, draft as many running backs

1246
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 5: as humanly possible in the last rounds. I mean, we

1247
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 5: have been sitting here for two months with nothing going

1248
00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 5: on since the draft, and everybody thought that everything was

1249
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 5: going to happen as expected. And look, one week in

1250
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 5: a training camp we have Josh ak out of town,

1251
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 5: Jonathan Taylor might be on the NFI list or whatever,

1252
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 5: Dalvin Cook might sign with the Jets, Kenneth Walker and

1253
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 5: Zach shehrban Arrel hurt, like the running back position is

1254
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 5: a shit show, so you have to act accordingly.

1255
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:15,400
Speaker 2: Don't forget the great, the great Sony Michelle has hung

1256
00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 2: up the clique.

1257
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, I mean it's just a nightmare.

1258
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 5: And people always like they're always confused, like wow, it's no.

1259
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 3: It's always going to be like this.

1260
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 5: It's gonna get worse too, So make sure you have

1261
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:27,280
Speaker 5: a lot stashed in your bunker.

1262
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:28,520
Speaker 2: I love it.

1263
00:59:28,800 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 4: Well, listen.

1264
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 1: This has been our experts guide to Fantasy football. Can't

1265
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:37,560
Speaker 1: say thank you enough to our experts Chris Raybon and

1266
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner. For more fantasy football content from these two,

1267
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 1: be sure to follow them in our free, award winning

1268
00:59:45,520 --> 00:59:48,520
Speaker 1: Action app. You can also subscribe to the Fantasy Flex

1269
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: podcast right here at Action Network. Multiple episodes are released

1270
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 1: each week for both season long and DFS players, and

1271
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 1: if you haven't already, be sure to check out the

1272
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:04,240
Speaker 1: rest of of our recently released episodes, our experts Guides

1273
01:00:04,240 --> 01:00:09,000
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1274
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 1: and more, all available now on the Action Network podcast

1275
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 1: presented by FanDuel. I'm Maria Marino. Thanks again, Action Network

1276
01:00:21,240 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

1277
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:28,600
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help Us available twenty

1278
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