1 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: Welcome the Trillions. I'm Joel Weber and I'm America Cultures. Eric. 2 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,799 Speaker 1: Where you coming to us from today? I am live 3 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,319 Speaker 1: from the thirtieth three station in Philadelphia, Uh, famous for 4 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: when they see film the last scene of Trading places. 5 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: UM actually on my way up to New York or 6 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 1: a client panel discussion at three thirty. And this is 7 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: the only way we can pull us off to accommodate 8 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: the great Katie Garifeld. So in the first you're gonna 9 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: be sitting on the ground at a train station for 10 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: us as we record trillions where it's really like the 11 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,279 Speaker 1: world is in war mode right now, Eric, if if 12 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: you're if, it's come to this UM, and there's some 13 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 1: significant events that have been happening in ets that we're 14 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: going to talk about on today's episode. What's been happening? Yeah, 15 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: it's been pretty wild. Like you know, e T s 16 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: are are like cockroaches. I mean, they can trade through anything, 17 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: and they have even when the underlying is frozen. But 18 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: we had a situation with Russia where the underlying was 19 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: frozen effectively and then also the e t F stopped trading. 20 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,559 Speaker 1: That's a new one. We've really never seen that before. 21 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: It's really an important one to discussed because where does 22 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 1: the sleeve investors and what should you think about going forward? 23 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: And then the other one is b x X, which 24 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 1: is a fixed et N, which is Barclay's halted creations 25 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: on that which it's still trades, but without creations, arbitrage 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: is basically destroyed. And so the price d v H 27 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: and the n A V and that causes problems and 28 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 1: that we've seen before. That's sort of a classic. I'm 29 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: a big bank, I don't feel like offering this anymore. 30 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 1: Let me just all creations and that's annoying. I think. 31 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: I think there are two different situations, but they both 32 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: speak to this idea of when the E t F 33 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: stops uh doing what it does and I wouldn't say 34 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: broken is the right word, but becomes impaired. Uh you know, 35 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: how does that work? What happens? Joining us will be 36 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: Key d Grindfield of Bloomberg News. She's also the co 37 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: host of the newly launched relaunched E t F i 38 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,239 Speaker 1: Q Show as well as David Nodded with E t 39 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: F Trends, this time on trillions. When E t F 40 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: s stop working, Katie Dave Welcome back to the program. 41 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, Thanks for having me too. I 42 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: feel bad, Eric that you had to change things around 43 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: to accommodate me because I don't have a lot of answers. Listen, 44 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 1: you're very busy, and you look I am happy to 45 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: accommodate you. You just don't look comfortable. Well I'm not. 46 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: I'm I'm sitting Indian style on marble and I'm about 47 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: four feet from a dunkin Donuts kitchen. So but this 48 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: is natural habitat for Eric. He kind of is back 49 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 1: in the day. Maybe you're gonna have to stretch your 50 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 1: hip flexors after. Can I just say one quick thing 51 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: about dunkin Donuts pretty pandemic. I would get the same 52 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: breakfast here and then two years pasted because the pandemic, 53 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 1: and then, as you mentioned, e t F I two started. 54 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,119 Speaker 1: I came back here on Monday two years later, got 55 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: the same thing and it was actually a hair cheaper. 56 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 1: Although somebody asked me to weigh the food. I was like, 57 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: come on, I don't think. I don't think they're doing that, 58 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: but I think don't donut. That's why the popular I 59 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: think they are able to be more efficient. But anyway, 60 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: interesting tidbits there. I could say many things, and we're 61 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: just gonna ignore that and move on. Um Katie, can 62 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: we start with you what has been happening, because you've 63 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: basically been on the front lines of the past few 64 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: weeks as as all of these things have transpired, it's 65 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: been pretty wild. I mean, it's been a roller coaster 66 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: a few weeks, and I feel like a lot of 67 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: the action has been centered on a bunch of e 68 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: t f s that aren't trading anymore. All of these 69 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: um US listed Russian focused e t f s. Obviously, 70 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: the Van Neck Russia et F was sort of where 71 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: all of this action was concentrated. But I mean, as 72 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: Eric alluded to, none, none of these et fs virtually, 73 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: I think that's correct, are trading anymore. But before that happened, 74 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: I mean, you saw a lot of flows into these funds. 75 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: It's unclear whether that was a create to lens situation, 76 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,119 Speaker 1: people trying to short it. You also saw options volume 77 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 1: take off on a lot of these funds, including a 78 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: fund I think it was a direction fund that announced 79 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: that it would liquidate and it was a leverage fund. 80 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: And you saw again options contracts just explode in volume, 81 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: which we now know, and I'm sure we'll get into 82 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: it's unclear whether those holders will actually be paid out. Okay, Eric, 83 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: One of the e t F s that we want 84 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: to focus on is called r s X, which is 85 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 1: the van X Russia e t F. What happened with 86 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: that one? Yeah, essentially actually RSX and all of the 87 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: politic creations, that's not that abnormal. Back ten years ago 88 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 1: the Egypt et F pltic creations, when the stock exchange 89 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: was closed for like two months, we've seen the before. 90 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: We figured, oh, they'll just trade through. But the difference 91 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: here is this is serious government stuff sanctions. Also, the 92 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: stocks stopped trading, the g d rs on those stocks 93 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 1: stopped trading, and it became a much more like the 94 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 1: e t F was thrust into a geopolitical situation, which 95 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: it wasn't in the Egypt case. And so I'll actually 96 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: turn over to Dave because what was different this case 97 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: is the exchanges nicely and cbo E said we're not 98 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: actually gonna get trade it either, and that was new. 99 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 1: I've never seen that. Normally e t s trade through anything, 100 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: even if the underlying is frozen, and nobody writes about 101 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: mechanics and busted mechanics better than Dave, So I would 102 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: like to get his take on just what he saw 103 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: and what he thinks, uh, sort of happened behind the scenes. Well, well, 104 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 1: Joel was sort of saying before we got started that 105 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: you only have me on when the car crash happens. 106 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: So it does feel a little bit like that. I mean, 107 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 1: you're right that this time was very different, and really 108 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: it comes down to the sanctions. I think if you 109 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: want to trace it all the way back, it's not 110 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: so much that the moss Go Exchange closed for business, 111 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: because that's as you pointed out, that happened in Greece, 112 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 1: that happened in Egypt. But in both those cases there 113 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: was a really legitimate expectation that those markets would reopen, 114 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: they might price differently, right, that the Arab spring could 115 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 1: have gone a couple of different ways. But I don't 116 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: think anybody was expecting that somehow, you know, all of 117 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: the companies listed, we're going to disappear. What happened with 118 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: the sanctions kind of created this, I think, this cascading problem, 119 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: which is once it became impossible for the Russian companies 120 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: to actually do business as securities anymore, meaning that they 121 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: could pay dividends, that they could pay their their bond servicing, 122 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 1: all of that stuff. When that became a problem, it 123 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: was really just a ticking time bomb for when the 124 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: LS the London Stock Exchange would effectively have to suspend 125 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: the g d rs and the vast majority of Russian 126 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 1: stocks that people trade trade in London as g drs, 127 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: not in New York as a d r s, and 128 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 1: not in Moscow directly. So once that happened, which was 129 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: almost instantaneous, that in the early round of sanctions, that 130 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: it was going to be impossible for these companies to 131 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: actually do business as global public securities. UM. I actually 132 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: think they've waited about a day late. I predicted on Wednesday, 133 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: two weeks ago that they would actually um either delist 134 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: or suspend the g d r s. They haven't actually 135 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: delisted them yet. I think that will be the next 136 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: you to drop, at which point those no longer become 137 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: investible securities, regardless of whether the market reopens if they 138 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: get delisted off the LC. So with no underlying security 139 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 1: that anybody had faith in anymore, you know, pausing for 140 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: halting creations and that you basically had to do that 141 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: because there was no way to roll up a basket 142 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: of securities anymore to do a creation and then the 143 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: suspension of trading. That really comes down to the obligation 144 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: of the exchanges themselves to ensure that they can make 145 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 1: orderly markets. Right, That's that's there on the hook for 146 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: that if they let something trade knowing that it's going 147 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: to be you know, hitting the limit up, limit down 148 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 1: every eight seconds all day long because nobody has any 149 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: idea how to deal with pricing that is on exchange 150 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: a little bit, so you know, we didn't get it 151 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: completely synchronized. I think RSX closed for trading a day 152 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: after E r U S. But but fundamentally you end 153 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: up in the same position, which is you have uninvestable markets. 154 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: That's what's different this time, Dave. And the pantheon of problems, 155 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: which is sort of how I think about you. You're 156 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: you're gonna be the red phone on the desk now 157 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: for trillions and the pantheon of problems. Where do you 158 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: rank this in terms of et F history? Oh predates right, 159 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: So the last time we can point to anything like 160 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 1: this um is either Cuba or ran both before you know, 161 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 1: both in the seventies and eight in the sixties prior 162 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 1: to that, um, which was the last time we actually 163 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 1: had the opportunity to look at the market and say, 164 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: this just might not exist when we get out the 165 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 1: other side of this crisis. UM. Now, I actually don't 166 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: think we end up in a world where they actually 167 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 1: just obviate all foreign ownership in Russia. But that's on 168 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: the table. They're already talking about taking over local assets 169 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 1: of foreign companies that have pulled out. I think it's 170 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: really just a matter of time before they say and 171 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: we're also obviating for ownership of the of the companies themselves, 172 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: at which point, literally those stocks go to zero, right, 173 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 1: those properties get written to nothing, which is incidentally what 174 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: happened in Iran, and it is what happened in Cuba, 175 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 1: which were the only two times in history I guess 176 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: nineteen seventeen and Russia again. Uh, those the only times 177 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: in history that I know that this has happened. So 178 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: it pre dates the et F structure. So if I'm 179 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: a shareholder and I'm looking at that, this seems really bad. Yeah. Yeah, 180 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: if you're sitting here with RSX in your SWAB account 181 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: right now, Uh, the very very high likelihood is that 182 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 1: you're going to get some very small percentage of your 183 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 1: money back when RSX finally closes, when they finally liquidated 184 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: it um, and you know it does have some cash. 185 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: They did what they could to raise what money they 186 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: could while those markets were still trading. But at the 187 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: end of the day, the price you see, you know, 188 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: the price you last saw, is pretty close to what 189 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: you might get, probably even less. Uh. And you know, 190 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: as we as you guys mentioned in the beginning, I 191 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: actually can't even predict what they're going to do with 192 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 1: the options market, because that's crazy, because the options market 193 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: now has no way to settle. You mentioned a word, 194 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: their liquid It's a big scary word, and I was 195 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: going to ask, I mean, how does this end, these 196 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: these e t f s where where trading has been halted, 197 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: Can that be unhalted or do you see this ending 198 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: eventually in liquidation. I only think that you'll see the 199 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 1: Russian e t f s resume normal trading when you 200 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: see the underlying markets resume normal trading. And I'm very, 201 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: very skeptical that that's going to happen for US investors. 202 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 1: For for a forty act fund um. I actually think 203 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: it is more likely at this point that those markets 204 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: become truly uninvestable, and that even should Moscow reopen, the 205 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: London will have to delist all those securities on the 206 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,959 Speaker 1: GDR market and nobody's gonna want to own the underlying s. 207 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,479 Speaker 1: E R U S had a lot of the direct underlyings. 208 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 1: They moved in the last couple of days to put 209 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:54,559 Speaker 1: more of the A d r s and g d 210 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: rs on the books. But even if that reopens, at 211 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: this point, it won't have I don't think we'll have 212 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: those securities on the books any more. I think it'll 213 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 1: be mostly cash. So let's say I hold r s X. 214 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 1: A lot of people actually bought it after all this happened. 215 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: Let's say they're training at three or four dollars. They 216 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: bought it at five six whatever it was low. It 217 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: was four months ago, so it's they're looking, Hey, it's 218 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,599 Speaker 1: a bargain you own that. E t F. Wouldn't you 219 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: rather just have everybody sitting limbo until something gets resolved, 220 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 1: even if that's two or three years, rather than really 221 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 1: get nothing. Yeah, I don't think you'll see them just 222 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 1: decide like next Thursday, to roll up the fund. I 223 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: do think you'll you'll see both. I mean, really, we're 224 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: just talking about black Rock and Van Neck here. I 225 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: think you'll see them. Wait until there's a shoe going 226 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: to drop right, whether either we you know, pass a 227 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 1: piece of legislation that makes this permanent in terms of 228 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: the sanctions, or Moscow does something to sort of obviate ownership, 229 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: or the l s D lists all the g d 230 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: r s, one of those kinds of events I think 231 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: has to happen first. You're right right now, Today is 232 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: not a day to close down this fund and hand 233 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 1: everybody back a buck on their dollar, you know, you know, 234 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 1: a buck on their fifty dollar investment or whatever's left over. Um, 235 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: why why would you do that? So one thing I 236 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: think is you need to be a little cautious of though, 237 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 1: is I think the idea that these are somehow cheap 238 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: lottery tickets is really dumb. Like I don't think that 239 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,319 Speaker 1: you can look at the price of gas Prom when 240 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 1: it reopens as some universal lottery ticket, because all assets 241 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 1: must eventually be worth something. I think we're seeing a 242 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: big shift in the fundamental economic order that's going on. 243 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: So I think that's a that's a bad call. Russia 244 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: is not the land of meme stock, No, I don't 245 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: think so. So on the lottery tickets ideas, I remember 246 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 1: reporting on the fact that you saw that huge explosion 247 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 1: both input and call volume, and it was described to 248 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: me as just that cheap lottery tickets. And I mean, 249 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: assuming that e t f s hadn't stopped working, I mean, 250 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: especially for those put contracts, I mean it seems like 251 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: they would have paid off though that actually that wouldn't 252 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: have been such a bad lottery ticket. Oh and I mean, Eric, 253 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: you wrote about this the other day, right, I mean, 254 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: there's actually a fairly substantial put heavy position that's due 255 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: to settle what tomorrow I think on Thursday. I think 256 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 1: that's right, nineties six million dollars or something like that, 257 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: most of it on the put side that that should 258 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 1: be in the money, Like to your point, that should 259 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: be a lot of that should be in the money. 260 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: But because the o c C changed how they're doing 261 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: the settlement where it's now I think has to be directed, 262 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 1: meaning you have to go in and say yes, I'm 263 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 1: willing to do I think a cash settlement on this um. 264 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: I think there are a lot of folks that are 265 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,199 Speaker 1: gonna let these expire with the opportunity to have gotten 266 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: money out of them, and and that's gonna that's problematic. 267 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: That's not on like van AK, that's kind of on 268 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 1: the O C C or CBO maybe, but like even there, 269 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: we are in pretty untested territory. So I think it's 270 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: tough to point fingers. By the way, Dave, you mentioned 271 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: the Barclay's of UH fund. That's v xx and e 272 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: t N. What's different about that circumstance than the rs 273 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 1: X one. Yeah, so totally different way that E T 274 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: s UM sort of broke down a little bit over 275 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks, so um vxx for very 276 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: different reasons. Vxx is an exchange trade note i E. 277 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: It's a piece of bank debt issued by Barkley's Bank, 278 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: tracking first and second month volatility futures. It's the most 279 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: popular e T F where E T P I should 280 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 1: say tracking volatility. It's sort of the traders darling sitting 281 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: on about a billion dollars um and they suspended creations 282 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: on it, which we've seen over and over again from 283 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: E t N issue wers over the last decade um 284 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 1: to the point where you know, I know you guys, 285 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: now give it a you know, a red a red 286 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: traffic light in every situation. Um. And this is one 287 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: of the big reasons, because it is a little bit 288 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: of you know, a fit of peak that the bank 289 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: can just decide they have too much risk on the 290 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: books and decide to stop issuing new shares, which causes 291 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: premium spikes, which is exactly what we've seen in v 292 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: x X. It's exactly what Credit Suite did to t 293 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: VX uh basically a decade ago. Uh. And in that case, 294 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: they just led a trade to a premium until they 295 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: got comfortable again, and then they issued a whole bunch 296 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: of shares out of inventory and in my opinion, somewhat 297 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: feloniously probably booked the profit on that because they were 298 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: actually issuing out of the market at a high price. UM. 299 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: Let me jump in here, because uh, these banks, Uh, 300 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: you're right, they do it almost when they want, and 301 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: that's what's annoying. In this case. Barclays did give some 302 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: logic they said, well, we've run out of issuance capacity, 303 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 1: but if you look at the documents, they are not 304 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: out of issuance capacity. They have plenty of runway left. 305 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: And so some speculated it's about hedging costs some who 306 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: speculated that somebody made a clerical error with the structure 307 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: products and this is sort of part of that fallout. 308 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: There's also a theory that it could be the canary 309 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: and a deeper problem with their books. Uh, and somebody 310 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: that management is just like, stop everything, what's your take on, 311 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: what's really going on behind the scenes? Who pulled the 312 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: plug and why? Well, so there are rumors on I 313 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: mean I heard those rumors too, that there was sort 314 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: of a blow up in some structure product issuance that 315 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: had to get delayed. Um, and that puts some strain 316 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: on the risk desk. And remember in the in the 317 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: sort of a post Dodd Frank world, banks have to 318 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: actually manage their overall risk pretty carefully. And so every 319 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: bank has somebody whose job it is to pay attention 320 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: to how much VEGA exposure do we have, right, how 321 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: much long equity exposure do we have, how much international 322 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: currency exposure do we have? And in most cases they're 323 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: monitoring that literally in real time to make sure that 324 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: the bank doesn't get over at skis SKIS because they're 325 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 1: considered you know, important institutions by regulators around the world. Um, 326 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: so it is not unlikely that somebody looked at their 327 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: book and said, we have way too much long ball 328 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: exposure on our book for the given volatility environment. Even 329 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: though all of the E t N value of that 330 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: was offset by an exactly equal liability in the E 331 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: t N, that doesn't matter. That doesn't get to be 332 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: counted because that's just considered short term paper on the book. 333 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: So there's a lot there's an asset liability miss match 334 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: in terms of how banks have to account for these things. 335 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: So it's not inconceivable they just got over their skis 336 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 1: on risk. The sort of canard they put up of 337 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: well we ran out of share issuance, that does happen 338 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: like I mean, we know for a fact, for instance, 339 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 1: that US Commodities Funds ran into this on U s 340 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: O and I think on U n G a few 341 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: times where they literally just didn't file to issue new 342 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 1: new shares. Unlike an e t F, a commodity spooler 343 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: in E t N can only sell the shares it's 344 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: it's actually registered with the exchange, and when they run 345 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: out of those, they have to file for more and 346 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: pay a decent amount of money. So every time they 347 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: file for one of these extensions. It's like a hundred 348 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 1: and fifty grand to put a bunch of new shares 349 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: up on the books. Now, it's possible for them to 350 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 1: reuse shares that have been redeemed, but most banks don't, 351 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:49,880 Speaker 1: and I don't believe either Credits Weeks or Barkleys does. 352 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: So when we look at and say, oh, well, there's 353 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: thirty three e t N three million e tns outstanding 354 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 1: and they've got coverage for fifty the problem is if 355 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: there has been a hundred million dollars in creations and 356 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 1: a hundred million dollars and redemptions, they don't get to 357 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: count that again, so they actually sort of use up 358 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: only one side of the balance sheet when they're issuing. 359 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: We don't actually know. You can't really impute it because 360 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: the creation redemption numbers are net so we don't get 361 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: to really see the creation redemption. We get to see 362 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,679 Speaker 1: the net um. But I suspect either they let that 363 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 1: happen on purpose to get out of this business, or 364 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 1: the risk desk turned them down. Something that caught my 365 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 1: eye with this v x X situation is just the 366 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: ripple effects that it could have for the volatility market, 367 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 1: largely because I don't know. You might look at the 368 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: size of v x x and say, okay, it's like 369 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: nine million dollars. That's big, but it's not systemically big. 370 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: But Goldman actually put out a note yesterday noting that 371 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: if you look at the options market that surrounds v 372 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: x x, uh the share a count of options is 373 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: about or rather, the outstanding options on v xx are 374 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: roughly six times v x x is actual share account. 375 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: That is more than double the ratio of all but 376 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: two e t f s, which is pretty amazing. Mean, 377 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: it just speaks to that a lot of these volatility 378 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: e t F c t N s, they're used as 379 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 1: trading tools for a lot of these volatility players. And 380 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 1: I mean what this means for the liquidity. I mean, 381 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 1: how could that options market around vxx be liquid if 382 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: this e t N isn't really trading or wears are halted, 383 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:25,479 Speaker 1: it's still trading, right right, So so the share creation 384 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: just means that it's going to disconnect from its fair 385 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: value and it's mostly going to trade at a premium. 386 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: But to your point, you're right, like, the options complex 387 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 1: around v xx is huge, and a lot of big 388 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 1: hedge funds use that on a very dynamic basis what 389 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 1: you're what, what you're seeing, if you're to monitor fin 390 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 1: twit vol folks, the trader community there you're talking, you're 391 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of talking about moving to other vehicles, 392 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 1: moving to other ways of expressing those opinions about VEGA. 393 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,720 Speaker 1: But that that options expiration cycle, both in the VXX 394 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: and really in the spy options and and the and 395 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: the in the futures, like that really impacts volatility in 396 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: pricing right the voulu you know, the whole sort of 397 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: vallpenning around opex is a very real phenomenon. It's less 398 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: of an issue in the VIXED complex than it is 399 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 1: directly in the underlying indexes. But you're right, like this 400 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 1: is it's a lot of shifting around of where that 401 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: exposure is going to come from. In that shifting around 402 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: create the opportunities for hiccups. Um. One of the aspects 403 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 1: of this is people who short the x X. So 404 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 1: last we look, there was about fifty of the shares 405 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:32,120 Speaker 1: were held short the all creations, and man, you've gotta 406 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: be they screwed them over because let's say your short 407 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 1: this all of a sudden, it starts creeping up because 408 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: other people who are short start covering, well they have 409 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: they can't do creations. They gotta buy vxx open market. 410 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: That really starts to lift the price quickly, and then 411 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: you panic you can start to cover. So all of 412 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,199 Speaker 1: a sudden, you're basically it's it's a you're in a 413 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,880 Speaker 1: race to just basically make sure you don't lose too much. 414 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: Could they like sue the company because that's that's really 415 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: the product not working as designed. Uh, not that anybody 416 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: has these sympathy for short sellers, but they really they 417 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 1: made a fair bet and they got they're getting screwed 418 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: over interest. It was at six according to market numbers. 419 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: That's you basically just described the two fift t VIX 420 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 1: lawsuit right, which when you know what they got sued 421 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: for there, which was you know, we didn't you know, 422 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,679 Speaker 1: manage the product correctly and therefore reliable to cred suits 423 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: won that lawsuit. So so, whether they morally should have 424 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: or not, they won the lawsuit because they had appropriately 425 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 1: disclosed everything they needed to disclose. I guarantee you that 426 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: Barclays is pretty much in the same boat. Everybody learned 427 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: that lesson that this is a get out of jail 428 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: free card. Um which is again why you guys put 429 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 1: a red light on this thing, right, because this is 430 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: always an option to your point about like all those 431 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: people who were short, and whether they're screwed or not. 432 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: You know, I guess the one thing against that would 433 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,640 Speaker 1: be that there are other products out there, right, so 434 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: you know their BIXI exists, right, There is comparable beta 435 00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: exposure available. It's not that difficult to roll up sort 436 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: of at the hedge fund level, and exposure that looks 437 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 1: just like vxx. So if you're short, you know at 438 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 1: premium you can actually cover your beta on that completely 439 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: just by buying vixie or by putting together your own 440 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 1: rolling portfolio of those things. So I don't think that 441 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 1: there's a systemic issue with that short position being there, 442 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: but there's no question if you're sitting there on the 443 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: short side, you have a really tough decision to make. 444 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: Do you cover up and make it worse or do 445 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 1: you just hang on for dear life, noting that eventually 446 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: this thing will crash back down to earth. What would 447 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: you do? I get the heck out of it, like, 448 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 1: I mean, it's I mean, I got a lot of 449 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 1: questions from people like, oh, how do I play this 450 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 1: premium blah blah blah blah blah, and it's like there 451 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:46,120 Speaker 1: are billions of dollars in very sophisticated hedge funds waiting 452 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: for you to try, just desperate for you to try 453 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 1: to play this, Mr individual investor. By the way, sometimes 454 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 1: I tweet about this and most people have the sort 455 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: of understandable reaction, like call what it means, but really 456 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: I don't know. Tenth reply is like, oh, I'm loving this. 457 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: I don't know what they're doing, but they just some 458 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:12,160 Speaker 1: people just love when Like are they financial journalists because this, Yeah, 459 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: that's true. These would be like people with like thirty 460 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,719 Speaker 1: five followers. I think they're like, they're definitely a day 461 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: trade there. There there is a there. I absolutely have 462 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 1: seen the tweets from folks that we're using VXX in 463 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: sophisticated vall hedge fund strategies precisely because they knew this 464 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: could happen. Right, This was actually a feature, not a bug, 465 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,639 Speaker 1: because it only goes one way. Right, there's nothing you 466 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 1: can do to be XX to make it traded at discount. 467 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: Like that's not that's not how the real world works, 468 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 1: and that would be unprecedented in the e t F world. 469 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 1: But you know, taking something that's an e t N 470 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: having a pop to a crazy premium, that's free money 471 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,360 Speaker 1: for the folks that were smart enough to realize this 472 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,199 Speaker 1: is just a hanging chad over e t N s 473 00:23:54,359 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 1: every day. If you were the SEC or you know 474 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: somebody that control over this, where all the banks you 475 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: could tell them, would you advise or regulate them to 476 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: get out of the E t M business once and 477 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,960 Speaker 1: for all? Or is it okay to have this sort 478 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: of graded our district where this can happen over and over. 479 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,239 Speaker 1: You just live with it because, um, you know, if 480 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 1: there's a market, hey, let people trade it. What do 481 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,439 Speaker 1: you think it's time to just get them out? Uh? 482 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: What I'd rather see is for them to allow forty 483 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: act structures to effectively create the same types of things 484 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 1: like a lot of the pro shayers leverage and inverse funds, 485 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: for instance, are just straight up forty act funds because 486 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: they got in under the wire and they let them 487 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 1: manage them that way. There's no reason you have to 488 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: put this exposure into an e t N. This exposure 489 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 1: could very easily be in a straight up CFTC regulated 490 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 1: commodities pool. Um So in this case, I don't see 491 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,360 Speaker 1: any reason for the e t N to exist. Uh. 492 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: And the SEC has been I mean they've paid attention. 493 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: Like I mean, over every couple of years, the SEC 494 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: turns the eye of we're on towards the E t 495 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,959 Speaker 1: N market and waves their finger a little bit, you know, 496 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,640 Speaker 1: And to be fair, we are now down to a handful. 497 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,360 Speaker 1: I mean, you and I remember Eric, you know, ten 498 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,439 Speaker 1: years ago there were dozens and dozens and dozens of 499 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,959 Speaker 1: all those E tracks E t N s that didn't trade, 500 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: and like I mean, it was just it was a 501 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: real littered field of garbage that you know, all had 502 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,920 Speaker 1: two million dollars in it never closed. Most of that's 503 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: finally thankfully gone away. Um. But yeah, at this point, 504 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: I would just think that it's better to shut these 505 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 1: things down. I'm not sure anybody's really getting great exposure 506 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: out of them anymore. And if you want this kind 507 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 1: of exposure is a wealthy investor. This is what structure 508 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 1: products are for. Literally, these kinds of patterns of returns. 509 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: Just one more wonky question. And the reason for using 510 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 1: E t N over E t F told the same 511 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 1: thing like fix or oil, is that the E t 512 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 1: N is taxed in a way that's a little more 513 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: like a stock, whereas the E T S holds futures 514 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: and taxation isn't as ideal, So is it is? The 515 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 1: E t N popularity really just largely about this tax loophole, 516 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 1: or I should say tax uh standardization with other ets. 517 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: I think it's two things. So, yes, the fact that 518 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: they're treated as prepaid forward contracts ie they get text 519 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 1: just like stock. That was a big selling point back 520 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: in the day, particularly around commodities E T N S 521 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 1: before we actually had a lot of the commodities pool 522 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: ones out there. Um. I think that's largely obviated now 523 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: because we've got great no K one commodity ETF and 524 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. Um. The the other one 525 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: is frankly perfect tracking. Right. So the great thing about 526 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: VXX if you're a vaultrator running a very tight quantitative strategy, 527 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: is that you know what the indicative value is to 528 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: the penny and it never varies. Right, It's mathematically guaranteed. 529 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,199 Speaker 1: When there was a viable creation redemption mechanism and it 530 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 1: was trading spot on, I have all the time. That's valuable. 531 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 1: And this is a complex strategy with a daily roll. 532 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,400 Speaker 1: So there's a lot of opportunity for friction and miss 533 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 1: on this. So having it in a perfect tracking vehicle 534 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,640 Speaker 1: like an et N makes a lot of sense. Dave. 535 00:26:58,320 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 1: One of the things that I just wanted to ask 536 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 1: you here was interesting what you said about E t 537 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: N S anything else that this episode has revealed that 538 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 1: the market needs to be talking about more openly and 539 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 1: consider changes or is this kind of business as usual 540 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 1: in worst case scenarios. It feels pretty business as usial 541 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 1: in worst case scenarios. I mean, we'd really do need 542 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,480 Speaker 1: to make clear that this was a conversation in two chapters. 543 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: What's going on in v x x UH and the 544 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,119 Speaker 1: other barklays et N that's shut, which is O I 545 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: l um. That is an extraordinarily unique thing to e 546 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 1: t N s issued by the two big banks that 547 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 1: really still issue e t N s um and it 548 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,639 Speaker 1: is the most problematic edge of the EXTREMEE traded product landscape. 549 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: That has nothing to do with what's going on in Russia, 550 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 1: even though we are talking about suspended you know, creations 551 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: in both cases, what's going on in Russia strikes me 552 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: as a little bit more like a two year flood. 553 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 1: I I would not have expected to see this in 554 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 1: my lifetime, and I don't particularly expect to see it 555 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 1: again in my lifetime because it requires, you know, literally 556 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,199 Speaker 1: the overnight turning of a major economic player into a 557 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 1: pariahs state. I don't think we're going to see that 558 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 1: again in the next twenty years. I hope. Right. Well, 559 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: you've bring up the emergency markets, so we didn't really 560 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 1: get to that. But like you know, this is why 561 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: the cold emerging I mean, they are dangerous. The governments, 562 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,080 Speaker 1: some of them authoritarian. I will say this is probably 563 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 1: you know, we've had first toll on her F R, 564 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 1: D M, E TF talk about in et F. It 565 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: keeps getting justified and justified. No China, no Turkey. It 566 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 1: really is true. All the problems are from governments with authority, 567 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:35,120 Speaker 1: authoritarian sort of you know, not dictators, but just governments 568 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 1: can just do whatever they want. Um, it's an interesting 569 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: time for that fund. I think it would probably grow 570 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 1: after this. But I do think the emerging markets, especially 571 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: with China, it's gonna get it now. China is going 572 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 1: to be even bigger in e M, and I don't know, 573 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: I can feel like the whole emerging markets complex or 574 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 1: it gets unbundled or shifted around. I don't know this. 575 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: Do you think this is a game changing moment. I 576 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 1: think I've already said they're they're killing the acronym brick 577 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 1: at some point. Yeah. I I'm not a big fan 578 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 1: of the idea of bricks or bicks anyway, but but yeah, 579 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 1: I think this puts a spotlight on what we mean 580 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 1: by emerging markets. I think a lot of people, particularly 581 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,959 Speaker 1: financial advisors, have treated e m as as a monolithic bucket. Right. 582 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: It's just a pattern of returns you put in the 583 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 1: corner of your portfolio. You put eight percent in it, 584 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: and everybody's happy. Um. And what we're learning is, though 585 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 1: there's a huge difference between Russia, China, India, Brazil and 586 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: all of the other emerging markets, they're all individually very unique. UM. 587 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of Perth product f R d M. 588 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 1: I think it's a really great way to to to 589 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 1: spin this UM. But I think what we also saw 590 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,720 Speaker 1: was when we all the major emerging markets ets had 591 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 1: to pull Russia out because the index providers called those 592 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,719 Speaker 1: market Russia uninvestable. Again, there was a lot of I 593 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 1: think legitimate hand ringing there that the optionality of whether 594 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 1: or not those Russian stocks might someday be worth something 595 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 1: was being taking out of the hands of an existing 596 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 1: e e M or vw OH shareholder. That's a legit complaint, 597 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: but it's a complaint about indexing and that and I 598 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 1: think that's a really important thing if you're in an 599 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: actively managed emerging markets mutual fund right now, they must exist. 600 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 1: I can't think I went off the top of my head. 601 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 1: Whether or not you were in Russia is a choice 602 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 1: that your PM made, right so that like you voted 603 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: for that PM with your dollars. I don't think most 604 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 1: people who just threw money into EM or v w 605 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,680 Speaker 1: OH spent a lot of energy thinking about whether they 606 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,479 Speaker 1: were enough foot see or MSc I index and what 607 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 1: was going to happen on you know, whether this country 608 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 1: was going to get in or out. You know, we 609 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,560 Speaker 1: talked about it when countries, you know, try to get 610 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 1: into the emerging markets, but like this is a big 611 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 1: getting out and that's been you know, a long time coming. 612 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 1: We haven't seen that before, all right, Dave. Usually I 613 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 1: asked for favorite tickers. We've done that before with you. Um, 614 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,800 Speaker 1: I want to ask you what's your favorite E M ticker. Well, 615 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 1: I mean I already said it Freedom f r d 616 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:02,240 Speaker 1: M Alpha architect Freedom one hundred. I get that right. 617 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 1: I don't even remember if I got the name of 618 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: the fund right, but it's that far d M and 619 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 1: it's the only, it's really the only interesting emerging markets 620 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 1: fund out there. It's the only one doing something really different. Dave, Katie, 621 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 1: thanks for joining us on Trillians. Thank you, thank you. 622 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Trillions. Until next time. You can 623 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcast, Spotify, 624 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 1: and wherever else woul you'd like to listen. We'd love 625 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 1: to hear from you. We're on Twitter, I'm at Joel 626 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 1: Webber Show. He's at aer Fultunice. This episode of Trilliance 627 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 1: was produced by Magnus Hendrickson. Francesca Levi is the head 628 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg podcast Fight