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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, car Play and then roud Otto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Here in Washington, where we're trying to dissect the messaging

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Speaker 2: we're getting out of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and

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Speaker 2: Yahoo was over this weekend Joe that he gave an

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Speaker 2: interview to Israeli media in which he seemed to just

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Speaker 2: reject the prospect of the ceasefire deal with a moss

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Speaker 2: that was laid out by President Biden yes at the

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Speaker 2: end of May to the Kanesset today, though it seems

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Speaker 2: that he has made an attempt to try to walk

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Speaker 2: it back, telling them in part, we are committed to

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Speaker 2: the Israeli proposal that President Biden welcomed. Our position has

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Speaker 2: not changed.

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Speaker 3: Okay, we've heard that before though as well, in their

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Speaker 3: position being not until the end of Hamas, and it's

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Speaker 3: pretty difficult to tell when, if ever that will happen.

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Speaker 3: In Gaza, we saw a lot more fighting in Gaza

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Speaker 3: City over the weekend, and you're right every time Benjamin Nettanya,

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Speaker 3: who does an interview, the ground seems to shift under

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Speaker 3: the Biden administration here, Yeah, and.

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Speaker 2: It raises the question of what is being targeted, perhaps

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Speaker 2: in an Israeli audience. Again, this was Israeli media versus say

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Speaker 2: the English video he put out on social media last

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Speaker 2: week talking about American weapons shipments to Israel. He does

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Speaker 2: seem to be targeting these messages, and maybe that is

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Speaker 2: one of the reasons why these messages could be read

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Speaker 2: as a bit inconsistent.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we turned to Nick Wadhams for some clarity here,

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Speaker 3: of course runs our national security coverage in Washington and

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Speaker 3: with us at the table, Nick, it's great to have

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Speaker 3: you back in the mix. What do you make of this?

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Speaker 3: To Kayley's point, it was May that Friday and May

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Speaker 3: that Joe Biden rolled out the ceasefire proposal that had

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Speaker 3: apparently been approved by Benjamin Nettanya, who it is now

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Speaker 3: officially off the table. He said in this interview he

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Speaker 3: would only go for a temporary ceasefire and partial hostage release.

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Speaker 3: Was there ever an actual deal?

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Speaker 4: I think that the answer to that is almost certainly no.

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Speaker 4: There was never a deal. What you saw there, according

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Speaker 4: to the sources we've been speaking to for the last

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Speaker 4: several weeks, is this was essentially a gamble by the

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Speaker 4: Biden administration where they laid out the terms of a

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Speaker 4: deal where the devil was always going to be in

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Speaker 4: the details. You had Phase one, which was this temporary ceasefire,

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Speaker 4: and then the possibility of a limited hostage release, moving

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Speaker 4: to a Phase two, which would be a more permanent ceasefire,

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Speaker 4: and then phase three. And the question was always how

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Speaker 4: do you get from phase one to phase two? And

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Speaker 4: there was never any agreement on that because and this

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Speaker 4: is just the central tension that has been in this

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Speaker 4: all along, is you have Israel saying they are not

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Speaker 4: going to stop until Hamas is eradicated, Hamas saying they

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Speaker 4: are not going to agree to a ceasefire unless they

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Speaker 4: are left in power in Gaza. How do you reconcile

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Speaker 4: those two things? You cannot. So I think you're really

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Speaker 4: seeing an administration here that is finally perhaps coming to

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Speaker 4: terms with the fact that this is a rock in

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Speaker 4: a hard place. There is no solution here. Do they

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Speaker 4: look for other means of leverage on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo.

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Speaker 4: But for the time being, this ceasefire proposal is pretty

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Speaker 4: much not going anywhere.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So if a ceasefire is going nowhere, if a

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Speaker 2: solution to Israel's Hamas issue is yet to be found,

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Speaker 2: can Israel realistically be fighting a war simultaneously against Tamas

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Speaker 2: and also with Hesblah? How do they do both at

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Speaker 2: the same time? Are they really going to well?

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Speaker 4: You know, and that is something that the Biden administration

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Speaker 4: has really been pressing the Israelis not to do for

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Speaker 4: a long time. A lot of their diplomacy in the

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Speaker 4: last several months has been against opening that second front

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Speaker 4: precisely for that reason, both obviously the military pressure that

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Speaker 4: it would put on Israel, but opening up this whole

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Speaker 4: other conversation and source of tension with the rest of

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Speaker 4: the region, and then provoking the possibility of a much

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Speaker 4: wider regional war, which would just create even more instability.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it was notable that the Prime Minister net

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Speaker 4: Yahoo and his government said, listen, the campaign against Hamas

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Speaker 4: is winding down. It's almost sort of saying, we see

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Speaker 4: the end is in sight. Now we're turning to this

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Speaker 4: issue of Hezbollah. So the Israelis seem implicitly to be

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Speaker 4: recognizing that they can't do both at once, and they

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Speaker 4: want to turn their attention to Hesbolah. I mean, this

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Speaker 4: is a huge concern for the Biden administration right now.

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Speaker 4: They really do not want this. They have a special envoy,

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Speaker 4: Amos Hawkstein, who has been dispatched to the region essentially

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Speaker 4: to keep this from going on. With the question, as always,

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Speaker 4: what leverage does Biden have over Prime Minister net Yahoo.

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Speaker 4: It seems like a lot less.

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Speaker 3: Israel's Defense minister is here now having this conversation with

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Speaker 3: the White House. Right this video from hesbela Saturday night

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Speaker 3: pretty sk stuff showing coordinates displaying coordinates near central Israeli airport,

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Speaker 3: two power plants, a nuclear research center, a cargo port,

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Speaker 3: and a gas field, implying they will bomb all of

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Speaker 3: these installations if Israel declares war on Hesbelah? Is this too,

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Speaker 3: this confrontation seen as inevitable.

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Speaker 4: I don't. The administration does not think it is inevitable,

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Speaker 4: and it feels that they can do what they did

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Speaker 4: over the last couple of months, which was headed off.

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Speaker 4: And they also argue, you saw what Israel did in

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Speaker 4: the face of that drone and missile barrage from Iran

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Speaker 4: a few weeks ago, and maybe they would be able

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Speaker 4: to do the same against Hesbola. Very different situation though,

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Speaker 4: given how well supplied Hesbolah is. I mean, I think

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Speaker 4: what you're seeing there almost is a messaging a game

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Speaker 4: of chicken by Hesbolah, essentially saying if you decide to

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Speaker 4: do this, here's what you could see, which understandably is

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Speaker 4: provoking a lot of concern because for all of the

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Speaker 4: program in the isolation that Israel has faced over its

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Speaker 4: handling of the war in Gaza in the region, a

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Speaker 4: war against Hezbolah is going to make that go up exponentially,

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Speaker 4: So they're going to have a real problem on their hands.

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Speaker 2: All right, Nick Wadams, who leads Bloomberg's national security coverage

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Speaker 2: here in Washington, thank you so much, and of course

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Speaker 2: show as Nick speaks to the idea that the Biden

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Speaker 2: administration obviously has been donned by this pushing for ACS fires.

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Speaker 2: This is a big political problem for the president. It

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Speaker 2: also is influencing races down the ballot, including an important

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Speaker 2: race that's happening in New York tomorrow, the primary against

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Speaker 2: your incumbent Congressman Jabal Bowman up against George Latimer, and

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Speaker 2: it's their policies toward Israel and Gaza that are really

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Speaker 2: seeming to define this race.

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Speaker 3: Yep, big contrast. Bowman considered part of the squad as

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Speaker 3: we call it here, and I think we all know

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Speaker 3: how the squad feels about Joe Biden's policies in Israel

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Speaker 3: and in New York. It's a very interesting test. This

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Speaker 3: is going to be one of several races we're watching

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Speaker 3: on another primary day tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and we want to get more into it now

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Speaker 2: with Spencer Kimball, who is joining us. He is an

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Speaker 2: executive director of the Emerson College Polling Center. They have

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Speaker 2: been looking at this Democratic primary race in New York

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Speaker 2: and found back on June eleventh that Jamal Bowman is

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Speaker 2: losing by seventeen points to his challenger, George Latimer, forty

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Speaker 2: eight to thirty one. So Spencer, welcome to Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for being with us. Is all

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Speaker 2: of this really going to come down to the Israel question?

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Speaker 5: Well, to some extent, Kaylee, because we asked the question

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Speaker 5: about Israel and it seemed like the district broke in

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Speaker 5: the same manner as it did in the ballot test

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Speaker 5: with about a plus twenty in favor of more support

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Speaker 5: with the Israelis. But it's a pressing question in the district.

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Speaker 5: And as we know in primaries, it's all about turnout.

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Speaker 5: So we'll see if Bowman's able to get out maybe

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Speaker 5: more of the vote than what we.

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Speaker 3: Well, what does it look like here is this This

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Speaker 3: could be a difficult night for him. What is your

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Speaker 3: polling show?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we have Latimer up by seventeen points. He was

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Speaker 5: up about forty eight percent. This was done a couple

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Speaker 5: of weeks ago. There was about twenty one percent that

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Speaker 5: were undecided, So technically you can see there's a range

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Speaker 5: that Bowman could pick up some late support. You saw

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Speaker 5: some rallies over the weekend. I think Bernie Sanders, Senator

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Speaker 5: Sanders was there aoc. They did some back to back rallies.

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Speaker 5: We'll see if that turns out a big turnout. But

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Speaker 5: the early vote, the numbers we were looking at this morning,

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Speaker 5: seems to be favoring Latimer a little bit. As far

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Speaker 5: as where that vote is coming from those you know

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Speaker 5: first couple of days.

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Speaker 2: Well, when we consider where the vote is coming from,

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Speaker 2: it's also a question of the age of the voter right, Spencer.

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Speaker 2: I noticed in your polling voters over forty tend to

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Speaker 2: break to Ladimir for Latimer, but Bowman is leading voters

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Speaker 2: under forty. So does this really come down to that

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Speaker 2: youth vote if you will, and whether or not they

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Speaker 2: show up tomorrow.

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Speaker 5: It will and in this district that youth vote is

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Speaker 5: not as strong as in other parts of the country,

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Speaker 5: even in other parts of New York City, so this

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Speaker 5: is not going to be We're not expecting an overwhelming

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Speaker 5: youth turnout. If he's able to get one, we'll see

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Speaker 5: if he can narrow that lead, particularly in the Bronx.

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Speaker 5: But there's also going to be a very strong older vote,

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Speaker 5: and that's what we normally see in these primaries, and

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Speaker 5: that's where he struggles. He's trailing two to one, three

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Speaker 5: to one in that older vote, and it looks like

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Speaker 5: about ten thousand people voted early as well. We'll see

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Speaker 5: how that vote breaks because those will be some of

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Speaker 5: those early numbers we see tomorrow night.

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Speaker 3: Well, Spencer, we want your take on the big debate

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Speaker 3: this week from your perch at Emerson College Polling Center.

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Speaker 3: I can only imagine the watch party in the little

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Speaker 3: building on Thursday night, But based on history, should we

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Speaker 3: expect to see a bump for one candidate or the

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Speaker 3: other here. There's been a lot of talk about how

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Speaker 3: it could be different this time as well, because a

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Speaker 3: lot of folks won't hear anything about it till they

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Speaker 3: go on Twitter the next day.

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Speaker 5: Well, we'll see. Traditionally, the first debate does not go

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Speaker 5: well for the incumbent president. We've seen this historically with

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Speaker 5: Ronald Reagan back in nineteen eighty four. We see it

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Speaker 5: with George Bush in two thousand and four, so that

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Speaker 5: even Barack Obama didn't have a good first debate. In

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Speaker 5: in fact, some people would say that it was Vice

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Speaker 5: President Biden that helped him out in twenty twelve against Ryan.

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Speaker 5: So that first debate is tough for the incumbent. It'll

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Speaker 5: be interesting to see how President Biden handles that, if

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Speaker 5: he's able to kind of buck the trend of that

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Speaker 5: incumbency and is able to have a strong debate. Considering

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Speaker 5: how early this debate is in the cycle, Generally these

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Speaker 5: don't come out till September, and having this now in

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Speaker 5: June puts a lot of pressure on both candidates because

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Speaker 5: neither is technically their party's nominee. So it'll be interesting

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Speaker 5: to see if there's any fallout from the debate.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just presumptives sharing a stage on Thursday evening. It

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Speaker 2: certainly is an interesting moment in history, Spencer. What will

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Speaker 2: also be interesting is where they go after for the

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Speaker 2: debate spin, the post debate spin. Rather, despite all of

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Speaker 2: our conversation that we have on this program and others

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Speaker 2: like it across all of the networks about the swing

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Speaker 2: states ultimately being the deciding factors, Donald Trump is going

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Speaker 2: to spend Friday in Virginia and Joe Biden's going to

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Speaker 2: New York in New Jersey, should we be expanding our

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Speaker 2: swing state list?

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Speaker 5: Well, I do think we need to be looking at

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Speaker 5: some of the some other states that traditionally have voted

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Speaker 5: mostly Democrat. For example, Minnesota. We've done a couple of

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Speaker 5: polls out in Minnesota where we've had it very close

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Speaker 5: to tide, and that's a state that we're keeping an

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Speaker 5: eye on. We have not pulled Virginia yet, but we

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Speaker 5: have seen other polls out there that have that race

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Speaker 5: close to tide as well. New York, I think is

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Speaker 5: an interesting example. We have it at seven points. Our

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Speaker 5: friends over at Siena have it at eight points. That's

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Speaker 5: a state where Biden wins by twenty three points. And

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Speaker 5: we'll see if those numbers hold or if Biden's able

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Speaker 5: to get his base and be able to put that

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Speaker 5: coalition back together.

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Speaker 3: So if you're standing at the corner of Boylston and Tremont,

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Speaker 3: pulling people aside today Spencer and asking them about the

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Speaker 3: guilty verdicts, what are they going to tell you and

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Speaker 3: is this going to come up on Thursday night?

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Speaker 5: Well, Joe at Boylston and Tremont, the guilty is you know,

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Speaker 5: there's a big party here. This is one of Biden's

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Speaker 5: strongest probably corners of the country, but outside in the

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Speaker 5: rest of the country, they're pretty much split on it.

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Speaker 5: A plurality of voters. It didn't impact their vote I

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Speaker 5: think overall for that independent vote, and that's a key

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Speaker 5: vote here because Biden's losing independence right now in these

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Speaker 5: swing states and he won them back in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 5: is that they find it less likely that they're going

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Speaker 5: to support Trump because of it. It's a slight number there,

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Speaker 5: it's about three to one, and it's again a small percentage,

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Speaker 5: but in a race that could come down to the margins.

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Speaker 6: That issue overall.

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Speaker 5: Seems to not be a benefit, but we'll see how

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Speaker 5: far it goes honestly in the debate as well, how

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Speaker 5: far Biden's pushing that message moving forward.

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Speaker 2: Well, does the pulling suggest Spencer that there's another message

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Speaker 2: he should be pushing that is more effective. When we

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Speaker 2: talk about those independent voters, the ultimately ones who will

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Speaker 2: decide the outcome of this election, what message do they

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Speaker 2: need to be targeted with.

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Speaker 5: Well, independents fall more with Republicans in that the economy

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Speaker 5: is their top issue. For Democrats, there's more of us

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Speaker 5: splattering of issues. Economy is up there, but so is

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Speaker 5: healthcare and education, and a couple of the environment would

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Speaker 5: be a higher issue on the Democratic side. So talking

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Speaker 5: about the economy will be important. But I think he's

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Speaker 5: got an overarching message that he needs to get back

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Speaker 5: to from twenty twenty, which was his concept of a

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Speaker 5: return to normalcy. And that's where the country I think

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Speaker 5: is looking at and is a little weary at the moment.

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Speaker 5: You see it in his approval numbers and when we

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Speaker 5: ask if we're headed in the right or wrong direction.

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Speaker 5: So looking at that vision of where the future is

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Speaker 5: going to be over the next four years if he

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Speaker 5: was to be re elected, I think will be important

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Speaker 5: for him to lay out and to address the economy.

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Speaker 5: The economy is a tough issue for him because more

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Speaker 5: people see Trump as better on that topic, So he'll

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Speaker 5: have to try to frame it in a way that

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Speaker 5: he's at least able to compete with Trump, because, as

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Speaker 5: I mentioned, that is the top issue for those independent voters.

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Speaker 3: Sort of off the wall question free spencer before you

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Speaker 3: leave us. We hear so much about how people like

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Speaker 3: lying to polsters now that it's very difficult to get

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Speaker 3: a quality sample because of so much much distortion when

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Speaker 3: you're picking up the phone and talking to people. What

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Speaker 3: can you do as a polster? What do you do

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Speaker 3: to keep your response, to keep your survey honest?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, No, it's a challenge that we face in all

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Speaker 5: these different modes of data collection. One thing that we

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Speaker 5: try to avoid is having that you know, that interpersonal

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Speaker 5: interaction where I'm calling someone, so we're text messaging, we're

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Speaker 5: using emails and voiceover. You know where your touch tone

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Speaker 5: on your keypads, so you don't actually have to talk

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Speaker 5: to a person, and you can take the surveys at

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Speaker 5: your convenience generally within twenty four to thirty six hours

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Speaker 5: of receiving the message. So that is an issue that

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Speaker 5: we look at within the industry.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I think we'll continue to challenge well Peak

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Speaker 3: behind the curtain there with Spencer Kimball. Absolutely, it's great

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Speaker 3: to see you back here. Spencer from Emerson College Polling

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Speaker 3: where he's the executive director. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions.

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Speaker 3: We'll assemble our panel next. Rick and Jenie are with

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Speaker 3: us the Monday edition of Ballance of Power on Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: TV and radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Not just any Monday, it's the Monday that marks two

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Speaker 2: years since the overturning of Roe v.

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Speaker 5: Wade.

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Speaker 2: The Dobbs decision came down two years today from the

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Speaker 2: Supreme Court in which the constitutional right to an abortion

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Speaker 2: was overturned. Of course, many states have seen abortion bands

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Speaker 2: go into place after that ruling. Others have six week

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Speaker 2: bands in place, and this is becoming a campaign issue,

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Speaker 2: especially so for the incumbent President Joe Biden, who is

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Speaker 2: trying to point to abortion policy in a video today

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Speaker 2: that he made to mark this two year mark.

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Speaker 7: Decades of progress shattered just because of the guy got

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Speaker 7: forty years in the White House.

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Speaker 6: We know what will happen if he gets another floor.

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Speaker 6: Margai Republicans row.

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Speaker 7: Is Yester beginning they're going to try to ban the

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Speaker 7: right to choose nationwide for coming for IVF and birth

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Speaker 7: control next.

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Speaker 6: But forgets extremist.

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Speaker 7: Send me back to the White House and I'll fight

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Speaker 7: like Caldery, Store Roe v. Wade and protect American.

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Speaker 3: Freeno referring to the last guy, Joe Biden. There just

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Speaker 3: a couple of days out, four days out from the

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Speaker 3: presidential debate. As we assemble our panel for their take

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Speaker 3: on all of this, Genie Shanzino and Rick Davis are

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Speaker 3: together our signature panel here, genius senior Democracy fellow at

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Speaker 3: the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress,

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Speaker 3: along with Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis, partner at Stone

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Speaker 3: Court Capital. Genie, this is surely going to come up

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Speaker 3: in the debate on Thursday. I just wonder, as you

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Speaker 3: look at this as a political scientist and upholster two

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Speaker 3: years later, if we can actually quantify the impact that

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Speaker 3: abortion as an issue will have in this presidential campaign.

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Speaker 8: We've already seen an impact in elections since the Dobbs decision,

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Speaker 8: and those have mostly favored those who are pro choice.

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Speaker 8: We haven't had a presidential election since Dobbs. So this

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Speaker 8: is going to be a defining moment for all of

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Speaker 8: us and everybody who cares about women's healthcare. But you

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Speaker 8: look at the polls, you look at the turnout that

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Speaker 8: has come about as a result, and you can have

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Speaker 8: that quantification. And Donald Trump himself has said GOP has

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Speaker 8: not handled this well. It has been a losing issue

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Speaker 8: for them. For the most part. He knows this is

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Speaker 8: not something that he wants to spend a lot of

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Speaker 8: time on Thursday. He much rather talked about immigration and

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Speaker 8: the economy issues, where in the polls at least he

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Speaker 8: is doing much better. So you can quantify it in

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Speaker 8: those ways.

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Speaker 5: Of course, I.

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Speaker 8: Will just tell you, you know, I go into the

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Speaker 8: classroom every day and there's very few Supreme Court cases

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Speaker 8: you can call out by name and students respond to.

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Speaker 8: But the idea that in two short years you can

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Speaker 8: say Dobbs and everybody knows what you're talking about, I

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Speaker 8: think just tells you how much that this is infiltrated,

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Speaker 8: if you will, the popular conscience.

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Speaker 2: Well, and to Ginie's point on how Donald Trump has

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Speaker 2: been messaging around this, Rick, he has said leave it

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Speaker 2: to the states. That that's essentially what the court, with

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Speaker 2: the justices he appointed, has done. Give the power back

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Speaker 2: to the states. He stands by whatever states ultimately are

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Speaker 2: going to decide. Is that a message that is going

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Speaker 2: to work in his favor or is that just not

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Speaker 2: a strong enough point to be making when so many

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Speaker 2: voters say they're prioritizing abortion rights.

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Speaker 9: Well, it certainly works in his favor in the red states, right,

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Speaker 9: and the country is almost evenly divided by states. So

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Speaker 9: the first thing had happened was fourteen states actually passed

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Speaker 9: very restrictive laws, and then you got into all these

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Speaker 9: other states that are now looking have I think seven

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Speaker 9: states have already passed initiative extending abortion rights, and we

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Speaker 9: have now nine on this ballot twenty twenty four that

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Speaker 9: are going to attempt the same thing. So it's created

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Speaker 9: a sort of political working class for abortion referendums since Dobbs,

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Speaker 9: and in that regard, I would say it's a much

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Speaker 9: more tenable position for Donald Trump to take saying, hey,

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Speaker 9: leave it up to the states than what many of

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Speaker 9: his fellow Republicans in Washington have been saying, which is,

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Speaker 9: now that we've got this win at our back on abortion,

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Speaker 9: we should be trying to get a national abortion ban.

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Speaker 9: In fact, he rolls into the convention in July, just

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Speaker 9: a month away, with a plank in the platform left

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Speaker 9: over from twenty sixteen that calls for a constitutional amendment

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Speaker 9: to ban abortion. So one of the things I'm watching

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Speaker 9: is will that be changed to let the states decide,

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Speaker 9: because that would certainly be more consistent with Trump, but

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Speaker 9: also inflame the right to life community within the Republican Party.

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Speaker 3: Hard to believe We'll be in Milwaukee in just three weeks,

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Speaker 3: is that right?

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Speaker 1: Wow?

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Speaker 3: As we spend time with our panel, I want to

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Speaker 3: get into some of the rhetoric that we heard over

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Speaker 3: the weekend from Donald Trump. Specifically, he was in Philadelphia

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Speaker 3: Saturday afternoon speaking to a group of Christian conservatives when

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Speaker 3: he floated an idea. And I bring this up as

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Speaker 3: part of kind of a composite of the wackier rhetoric

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Speaker 3: that we've been hearing. We talked about Hannibal Lecter last week.

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Speaker 3: In this case, the former president has a new idea

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Speaker 3: on what to do with migrants who cross the border illegally.

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Speaker 3: Let's listen together.

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Speaker 10: I have an idea for you to make a lot

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Speaker 10: of money. You're gonna go and start a new migrant

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Speaker 10: fight league migrants only migrants, and then at the end

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Speaker 10: of the year, the champion migrant is going to fight

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Speaker 10: your champion.

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Speaker 3: And I hate to tell you, Dan, I think the

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Speaker 3: migrant might win.

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Speaker 10: That's how tough they these are. Not this is not

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Speaker 10: a normal situation.

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Speaker 3: Okay, this really happened. He's referring to Dan as Dana White,

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Speaker 3: president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship the USC, who was

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Speaker 3: contacted and said that, in fact, they did have this

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Speaker 3: conversation at a post fight news conference in Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 3: White confirmed Trump made the comments, but said they were

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Speaker 3: a joke. Rick, Are we beyond this kind of thing mattering?

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Speaker 9: You know, I think this has We've been inoculated right

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Speaker 9: to the point where it doesn't matter how crazy it

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Speaker 9: is that we kind of just say, oh, well, you know,

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Speaker 9: that's just another Trump slogan. But I do think it

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Speaker 9: plays against Trump in an electoral sense, which is it

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Speaker 9: reminds everybody just how crazy that first administration he had.

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Speaker 9: Was the fatigue that people had at the end of

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Speaker 9: it helped elect Joe Biden, and Biden's kind of lost

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Speaker 9: that mojo. You know, he's not the stable guy anymore.

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Speaker 9: I mean, I don't think anybody thinks that they traded

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Speaker 9: up in that regard, but Donald Trump's trying to remind

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Speaker 9: them of just how crazy it can get. And I

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Speaker 9: think this plays against him. I think he's got to

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Speaker 9: get more on a mainstream track if he thinks that

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Speaker 9: these independent voters especially are going to set aside their

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Speaker 9: concerns about his craziness and vote on their economic self interests.

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Speaker 2: Well, and as we consider how this messaging from Trump

439
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 2: is actually reaching voters, if it is at all, Genie,

440
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 2: we had to go cut that sound from a rally

441
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 2: that took place in Pennsylvania re err It on this program.

442
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: There's probably a lot of people out there who weren't

443
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 2: paying attention to that one rally or the many others

444
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 2: that have come before it in which we've questioned things

445
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 2: like sharks and boats and what have you. If there's

446
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,199
Speaker 2: more people tuning into a debate, though, is Thursday night

447
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 2: a moment at which that could change? And what Donald

448
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: Trump is saying off the cuff becomes much more embedded

449
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: in the American conversation.

450
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 8: It can. I mean a lot of that's going to

451
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,479
Speaker 8: depend on the size of the audience, and then to

452
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 8: your point, how much gets cut and put out there

453
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 8: and what resonates with people. But you know, I thought

454
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 8: that this remark over the weekend. He was talking first

455
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 8: of all, to a Christian group, and then he's in

456
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 8: Philadelphia and he is talking about human beings that are

457
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 8: distressed and in some of the worst conditions you can

458
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 8: ever imagine. And Dana White and Donald Trump suggest this

459
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 8: is a joke. This is not a joke. These are

460
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 8: people's lives, and what is Christian about this is nothing?

461
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 8: And so to me this comment, you know, he talked

462
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,880
Speaker 8: about Hannibal Lecter again, he talked about water, all kinds

463
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 8: of things, sharks, But to describe human beings in this

464
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 8: way like you're going to put them into a cockfight,

465
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 8: is so beyond the Pale that I do hope people

466
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 8: pay attention to what he's saying. And I would say,

467
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 8: when you compare what he said this week this weekend

468
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 8: on this to what Joe by and has said, we

469
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 8: have traded up, and many people think that because this

470
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 8: is unbecoming of any leader or any person. Quite frankly,

471
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 8: this is ugly and it's distressing and it's not funny.

472
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it does seem to cut through a little more

473
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 3: than some of the other stuff, because we'll get tweets

474
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 3: about Trump arrangement syndrome and so forth, because we brought

475
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 3: this up with the Steve Chung, the communications director for

476
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 3: the Trump campaign. Rick responded to some of the Democrat

477
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 3: outrage quote, these elitists are the same people who stupidly

478
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 3: think combat sports is human cock fighting. The genie's reference

479
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 3: there showing their ignorance to the sweet science of mixed

480
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: martial arts. Is that the right way to respond.

481
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, I'd remind him that the sweet

482
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 9: science is boxing that has actually been detrimentally affected by

483
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 9: mixed martial arts, so you ought to get his slogan straight.

484
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 9: But look, I mean, this is a popular mixed martial

485
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 9: arts is very popus during the United States. It's a

486
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 9: huge billion dollar industry, billions of dollars in industry, and

487
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 9: it isn't it isn't illegal. It's supported by a lot

488
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 9: of people. And frankly, this is one of the things

489
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 9: that has been an advantage for Donald Trump is the

490
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 9: kind of nose turned up attitude that many people have

491
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 9: toward what many people consider a sport at home and

492
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 9: lee atwater used to describe professional wrestling is the only

493
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 9: sport that isn't rigged, because of course it is rigged,

494
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 9: and so I mean, but it's fun for people to see,

495
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 9: and so I do think this falls into the category

496
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 9: be careful what you say is a kind of flyover

497
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 9: communities that Hillary Clinton, you know, spoke so disparagingly about

498
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 9: in the twenty six teen race that lost her of

499
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 9: the election.

500
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 2: All Right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno our signature political panel,

501
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us on this Monday

502
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 2: as we look forward to the events of Thursday evening.

503
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

504
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

505
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: and then Rouneo with the Bloomberg Business app, listen on

506
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

507
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

508
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 3: Nice to be back with you, Kaylee. Lines on a

509
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,199
Speaker 3: Monday here with some pretty important headlines coming out of

510
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 3: Israel over the weekend. Israel to ease off Gaza fighting

511
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 3: as focus moves to Hesbelah one headline on the terminal,

512
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 3: but also the question of a cease fire right now, Kaylee,

513
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 3: is very much up in the air, and it does

514
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 3: feel like the three phase plan that Joe Biden rolled

515
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 3: out several weeks back on a Friday in May is

516
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 3: officially dead. The statement in an interview from Benjamin Nett

517
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 3: and Yahoo makes that pretty clear quote if there is

518
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 3: an agreement, it will be on our terms and that

519
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 3: will not mean.

520
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 2: Ending the war, although it seems that he did try

521
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: to walk that back someone speaking to the Kanessa today,

522
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 2: he said, we are committed to the Israeli proposal that

523
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 2: President Biden welcomed to. Our position has not changed. So

524
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 2: it remains unclear what exactly the Israeli government's position on

525
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 2: is on forward progress on a seatsfire deal with Hamas.

526
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 2: But to your point, Joe, we also have questions about

527
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: what Israeli policy and tactic is going to be going

528
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 2: after another Iranian proxy in Hezbola to the north. Of course,

529
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 2: there's already been a lot of activity on that border

530
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 2: with Lebanon since October seventh, But what we're talking about

531
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 2: here potentially is not just activity but another front in

532
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 2: this war.

533
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 3: That's true. And everyone we have asked on this program

534
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 3: about this for the last couple of weeks here in

535
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,479
Speaker 3: some pretty smart political and military minds all have not

536
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 3: only allowed for this possibility, but suggested to us that

537
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: it is more likely than not to happen.

538
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: Well, we want to add another military mind to the

539
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 2: voices we've asked about this, and welcome now General Kenneth Mackenzie,

540
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: former commander of US Central Command, now executive director of

541
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 2: the Global and National Security Institute at the University of

542
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 2: South Florida and author of a new book, The Melting Point,

543
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 2: High Command and War in the twenty first Century. General,

544
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 2: welcome back to Balance of Power. It's great to have

545
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 2: you as we consider what we understand to be Israel

546
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 2: shifting focus toward Hesbola and Lebanon. Does Israel have the

547
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: capacity to fight a two front war? And does a

548
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 2: two front war very quickly turn into a regional one.

549
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 11: Well, first of all, it's great to be with you

550
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 11: here today. I always enjoy coming on your program. Israel

551
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 11: does have the capacity to fight a two front war,

552
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 11: but it would be a war fought at a much

553
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 11: higher level of risk, and there would be far greater

554
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 11: damage to Israel if they enter this war. It's important

555
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 11: to understand what hasn't happened so far is a massive

556
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 11: lh Lebani's his isballa attack into Israel. There have been

557
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 11: tit for tats across the border, you know, in a

558
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 11: number of many tens of thousands of Israelis have had

559
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 11: to move south to be out of the range of Zbala.

560
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 11: But Isabella has not chosen to strike south with the

561
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 11: very lethal, very highly capable weapons that they received from Iran.

562
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 6: We'll know when that happens.

563
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 11: That would be a major turning point that has not

564
00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 11: happened to this point, but over the last thirty days, I,

565
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 11: like many other people, my assessment is now there's an

566
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 11: increased possibility of a war in the north.

567
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: That means you do not think it's inevitable. General, Is

568
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 3: that right?

569
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 6: I don't think it's inevitable.

570
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 11: I think Lebanese is Bala recognizes what would happen if

571
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 11: they chose to fight Israel. I think Israel possesses the

572
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 11: resources and the ability to damage. Lebanese has balloped very

573
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 11: badly in LH, and their leader in ISRAELA is in

574
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 11: a weaker state than they were the last time they

575
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 11: decided to fight Israel. The last time they went to

576
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 11: war with Israel in two thousand and seven. In that

577
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 11: time frame and then a little bit after that as well,

578
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 11: they were well ensconced in Lebanon, they had a more

579
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 11: aggressive political support. The economy was doing not great but okay.

580
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 11: Today the economy is in the tank, in the political

581
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 11: situation is fragmented in gridlock. And there's a lot of

582
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 11: blame for LH for those two situations. Because they've been

583
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 11: the shadow behind the throne for so many years, it

584
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 11: is inevitable that they're going to be blamed for the

585
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 11: terrible condition the average citizen of Lebanon finds them in.

586
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 11: So as Lah calculates going to war with Israel, they

587
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 11: have to be aware that their political posture in Lebanon

588
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 11: is weaker than it has been in the past. So

589
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 11: they will think long and hard. I think before deciding

590
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 11: to fight Israel.

591
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 2: Well, as we consider the decision not just on the

592
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: part of Hasbeloved, also in Israel and whether or not

593
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: to engage more directly in this fight, if we were

594
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: to see this second front open up, general, how much

595
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 2: more difficult would that make normalization with other Arab countries

596
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 2: like Saudi Arabia.

597
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 6: A great question.

598
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 11: I'm not sure it would necessarily impact it directly. The

599
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 11: nations of the Gulf see Iran as their principal threat,

600
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 11: and that is the greatest existential threat that they face.

601
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 11: They need support from the United States to face Iran.

602
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 11: They would like to have coordination with Israel to face Iran.

603
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 11: So I think as they look at what's happening, as

604
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 11: they have looked at what's happening in Kaza, and if

605
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 11: they have to look at what might happen up in Lebanon,

606
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 11: I think it will certainly be a factor. I don't

607
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 11: know it would be a factor that would derail that

608
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 11: process of normalization that is preceding.

609
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 3: With all of that said, then general, what role, if any,

610
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 3: would the US play in a war with Hesbelah? Right now,

611
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 3: the US is giving money, it's giving weapons, it's doing

612
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 3: everything but fight the battle with Hamas for the IDF,

613
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 3: what would a war to the north look like.

614
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 11: A ward of the north would be the most complex

615
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 11: and demanding of all situations for the idea of is

616
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 11: really defense force. Now you're looking at a two axis war,

617
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 11: as you noted, a war from the north and Hisbala

618
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 11: is the largest non state military entity in the world.

619
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 11: They have tens of thousands of highly precise ballistic missiles

620
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 11: and shorter range rockets that can hit population centers really

621
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 11: virtually in all of Israel. A very different threat from

622
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 11: those missiles of what was posed by Hamas, which was

623
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 11: not a negligible threat either. But this would give Israel

624
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 11: two front problem. And here's the other thing. And I

625
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 11: think General Brown that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs

626
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 11: earlier today or yesterday reacted when he said, the physics

627
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 11: of that problem, the geometry of that problem, would make

628
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 11: it harder for us to help Israel just because of

629
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 11: the alignment of if you look at the map, you've

630
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 11: got a north south alignment. They are harder to get

631
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 11: between them, harder to actually provide assistance. We can continue

632
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 11: to provide assistance, but its material assistance. We are committed

633
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 11: to the defense of Israel. This would probably require us

634
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 11: to exercise that defense of Israel should a war begin,

635
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 11: a significant war begin with Lebaneseisballa in the north, So.

636
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: As we consider the ability of the US to provide

637
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 2: assistance on that front, there, of course is the ongoing

638
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 2: question of US assistants provided as Israel conducts it's ongoing

639
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 2: operations in Gaza in the absence of any kind of

640
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: temporary or permanent ceasefire agreement, Given everything that we have seen,

641
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 2: the competing messaging it seems from this administration, from the

642
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 2: net and Yahoo government in Israel, do you think there's

643
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 2: a real prospect of a ceasefire.

644
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 11: I think there's possibly the prospect of a limited ceasefire.

645
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 11: But you know, all of our attention has been focused

646
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 11: on Israel because whatever you can think about the Israeli government,

647
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 11: nonetheless it's pretty much an open and transparent process. We

648
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 11: don't know anything at all about what Hamas is thinking

649
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,760
Speaker 11: because they're a terrorist organization and I don't believe actually

650
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 11: their maximalist demands have changed.

651
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 6: From day one.

652
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 11: So a lot of attention is focused on machinations inside

653
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:39,280
Speaker 11: an open society in Israel, but we're really not looking

654
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 11: at the Hamas part of this equation. Hamas has no

655
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 11: interest in this war ending. It is very much to

656
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 11: their advantage to draw it out in time to increase

657
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 11: the rate of civilian casualties to cast Israel And as

658
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,800
Speaker 11: unfavorable light as possible. And Amas achieves this by embedding

659
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 11: in the population of Gaza, placing Israeli commanders on the

660
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 11: horns of a dilemma anytime they seek strike a target,

661
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 11: because Hamas has very cleverly drawing the civilians around them.

662
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 11: So it's not in their interest. Actually their interest being Hamas,

663
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,280
Speaker 11: it is not in Hamas's interest to have a ceasefire.

664
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 3: General, you write in your book The Melting Point about

665
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 3: the critical role that you played in the US withdrawal

666
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 3: from Afghanistan. It's something that we talked about briefly last

667
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 3: time you were with us. These days were fraught with risk,

668
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 3: and what you and your troops went through is quite remarkable.

669
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 3: We're going to see a presidential debate this week in

670
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 3: which I suspect that withdrawal is going to come up.

671
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 3: This is one of the great criticisms that the Biden

672
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 3: administration has faced from a military perspective. Politically here since

673
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 3: that happened. Does the president deserve that criticism?

674
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 11: Well, I think the endgame in Afghanistan and what happened

675
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 11: in August at twenty twenty one was the direct result

676
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 11: of two presidential administrations as unlike as any two in

677
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 11: American history, and two presidents as unlike as any two

678
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 11: in American history, who nonetheless shared one area of policy continuity.

679
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 11: They both wanted to exit Afghanistan, regardless of the consequences.

680
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 11: So the plan was prepared under the Trump administration. The

681
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 11: Biden administration did not execute the plan in detail, but

682
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 11: they philosophically executed the same plan, which brought us to

683
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 11: the situation that occurred in August and all the tragedy

684
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 11: that occurred that month.

685
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:35,280
Speaker 2: So general, essentially, you're saying that fault could be placed

686
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 2: on both, But should greater fault be placed with the

687
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 2: person or the administration that drafted the plan initially or

688
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: the one who decided to pursue it to not change it,

689
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 2: to alter the end date.

690
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 11: The plan that was signed in Doha in twenty twenty

691
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 11: February twenty twenty was a flawed plan. It was not

692
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 11: a good plan, but it was a plan that had

693
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 11: it been had the condition out the requirements for both

694
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 11: sides to act. Had it actually been vigorously pursued by

695
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 11: both administrations, not just one, but by both administrations, it

696
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 11: is possible we could have gotten to a different place

697
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:19,280
Speaker 11: in Afghanistan. Neither administration elected to impose conditionality on the Taliban. Instead,

698
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 11: we executed the tasks that we said we would execute it.

699
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 11: We did that faithfully with one exception, which is to

700
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 11: stop attacks on us. The Taliban did not execute those

701
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 11: conditions that were placed on them. Additionally, the act of

702
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 11: cutting the Afghan government out of the negotiating process undercut

703
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 11: them with severe, severe morale effect on Afghan seeking to

704
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,879
Speaker 11: defend their country. So I would blace I would place

705
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 11: blame across both administrations.

706
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: Well, you know, of course, that's what so many of

707
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 3: the questions are geared toward. It's where we started. This

708
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,280
Speaker 3: part of our conversation is about where the blame should

709
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 3: be general. I'm curious about what you learned though going

710
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 3: through this. You're writing about it in the book, the

711
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 3: lessons that you learned about the civilian military relationship and

712
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 3: your duty to carry out orders from a civilian commander

713
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 3: in chief.

714
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 11: So I think one of the most sacred principles of

715
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 11: our republic is that the US military, the Joint Force

716
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 11: as we call it, needs to be completely apolitical and decisions,

717
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 11: key decisions, need to be made by constitutionally selected Savillan leaders,

718
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 11: and that savine leader he or she has the right

719
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 11: to make that decision. They have the right to make

720
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 11: a wrong decision, and unless the order is illegal, they

721
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 11: have every right and expectation that the United States Military

722
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 11: will execute those orders.

723
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 6: That's important.

724
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 11: You never want to get into a situation where a

725
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 11: four star general says, I don't agree with this and

726
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 11: I'm quitting. That is a political act, and the US

727
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 11: military does not ever need to get into the political business.

728
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 11: That would be bad for the long term health of

729
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 11: the republic. And I would argue that that single action

730
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 11: of choosing to resign or choosing to protest is more

731
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 11: important than the goodness or badness of the decision that

732
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,240
Speaker 11: the political leader made, because it will echo through future

733
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 11: years in US history. As a president, we don't need

734
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 11: that kind of precedent. What we need is a US

735
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 11: military that will execute the orders of our elected leadership,

736
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 11: unless the order is illegal. When I was at Central Command,

737
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 11: I had a squad of lawyers who could tell me

738
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 11: what an illegal order was.

739
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 6: But I knew what an illegal order was. I never

740
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 6: received an illegal order.

741
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 11: That's an important principle, and I think that's why I

742
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 11: spend a little bit of time in the book talking

743
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 11: about it.

744
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 6: Is very important.

745
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 3: That's fascinating he never received an illegal order, General Kenneth Mackenzie.

746
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 3: The book is called The Melting Point, High Command and

747
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 3: War in the twenty first Century. General, it's good to

748
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 3: see you again. Thanks for coming back to talk to

749
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 3: us here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

750
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

751
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,320
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

752
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 1: then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can

753
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

754
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg.

755
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 3: Do you think in vidio will come up at the

756
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 3: debate on Thursday night? I mean it's inevitable, right, Not really,

757
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 3: but a I could be among the things that are

758
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 3: talked about. I'm really curious. We talk so much about

759
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 3: what the candidates are going to do or not do.

760
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 3: I'm curious what the moderators are going to do. With

761
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,399
Speaker 3: their time, what kind of questions they get in here,

762
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 3: and of course, well what format takes once the candidates

763
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 3: start talking, you know, the mics are going to be

764
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:29,919
Speaker 3: caught off with about all kinds of rules that they've

765
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 3: plugged in here for this thing. It's going to be

766
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 3: on CNN, but you watch it right here on Bloomberg

767
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 3: for the voices. You trust. We'll have all of the

768
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:42,360
Speaker 3: analysis that you would expect here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

769
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 3: Joe Biden's at camp David right now. Huh, he's already there.

770
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 3: Beautiful this time of year, press can't get to you,

771
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 3: nobody can. You know, when you walk away from your

772
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 3: desk when you're at work, you try to you've got

773
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: to do something. You find a conference room, you hunker down,

774
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 3: so no distractions. That's the deal for Joe Biden. Donald

775
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 3: Trump appears to be just being Donald Trump. He was

776
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,319
Speaker 3: riffing over the weekend, held a couple of rallies, talk

777
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 3: to people out there, says he's already made up his

778
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 3: mind on a vice president helping us put it all together.

779
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Laura Davison with us here at the table on

780
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 3: a Monday. This is a big week.

781
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 12: This is a huge week. It could be you know,

782
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 12: just on the docket. Yeah, we have potentially a VP

783
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 12: pick from Trump, we have the debate, and also the

784
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 12: immunity decision from the Supreme Court.

785
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 3: So, by the way, all that could happen the same day,

786
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 3: never mind the same week. Are you like you must

787
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,479
Speaker 3: be feeding the troops weedies for this one, because Thursday morning,

788
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 3: the building's going to shake potentially a Supreme Court ruling

789
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 3: on immunity, right, and we're going to end the day

790
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 3: with this debate. We haven't even gotten a sentencing yet.

791
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 3: But let's deal with this week as a whole. Everyone's

792
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 3: making a big deal about the difference in the style

793
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 3: of these two, the way they're preparing. Do we actually

794
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 3: have a sense of what Donald Trump is doing other

795
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 3: than kind of riffing with his advisors.

796
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 12: Well, tonight he's at a fundraiser in New Orleans with

797
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 12: Steve Skalet, so you know he'll be speaking to not debate, press,

798
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 12: business executives. But he really doesn't like debate prep. He

799
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 12: doesn't you know, he doesn't like the structure of that,

800
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 12: you know, the cramming for the test. He just he's

801
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 12: having what he's calling policy time where he's sitting down

802
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 12: with AIDS just sort of riffing on policy, going over

803
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 12: some key talking points, but nothing you know, there's not

804
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 12: going to be binders.

805
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 3: Of you know, or mock debates with say bodium set up.

806
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 3: That's what's going on at can't David right?

807
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 12: No, And the way he treats, I mean, it's kind

808
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 12: of like how he preps for his rallies. You know,

809
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,760
Speaker 12: there are sort of prepared remarks that his team puts

810
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 12: together and then he just talks in between those. But

811
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 12: you know, even going into the into the debate room,

812
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 12: all candidates going to have his pen and paper and water.

813
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 12: They can't even take notes in. So yeah, it'll be

814
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 12: totally free form with now so what, Just.

815
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 3: So I understand, we're gonna have commercials in this thing,

816
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 3: which does feel kind of hokey to me for what

817
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 3: would normally have been, you know, a commission sanctioned general

818
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 3: election debate. There's something kind of holier than now about it.

819
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 3: This is a CNN debate with your favorite moderators and

820
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,320
Speaker 3: commercials that everyone will need to when they carry the debate.

821
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 3: The two candidates cannot confer with staff during those breaks.

822
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 12: Correct, Correct this is basically just a break for them.

823
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 12: Part of this is you know they can say, oh,

824
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 12: look this is CNN. They went the commercial break for

825
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 12: the ad revenue. But the candidates are also probably not

826
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 12: saying no to having a little couple minute break you know,

827
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,240
Speaker 12: built into you know, a ninety minute debate.

828
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 3: Which can they leave the stage?

829
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 12: You know, I'm not totally sure on that, but they're

830
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 12: not allowed to talk to anyone, so you know they can.

831
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 3: You know, we need break cams that just follow them

832
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 3: everywhere they go, you know that we can see them

833
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 3: while we're in commercial.

834
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 12: We will have photographers in there for you know, a

835
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 12: pool spring in a basil where they all get to

836
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 12: just take photos of the candidates. So we will have

837
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 12: you know, eyeballs in the room on what's happening.

838
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,399
Speaker 3: What do you know about spin rooms here? I've I've

839
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 3: heard the Gavin Newsom is going to be there for

840
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 3: Joe Biden, and you'll have Don Junior and any number

841
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 3: of folks who want to be vice president for Donald Trump.

842
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 3: Is that the expectation.

843
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 12: Yes, yeah, so they will have the spin room. There

844
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 12: will be reporters on the ground doing the normal thing.

845
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 12: But it's going to be a weird debate because there

846
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 12: isn't going to be that TV audience. There aren't going

847
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 12: to be all the people streaming into the you know,

848
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 12: the auditorium like we've had before, you know, in their gear.

849
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 12: This is just going to be you know, very subdued,

850
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 12: almost anti climactic at a certain way.

851
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,879
Speaker 3: Well that yeah, then of course the fireworks could pop

852
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 3: off at any point. So really interesting. I took some

853
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 3: notes from Donald Trump's comments over the weekend on some

854
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 3: of these. The one on Saturday was speaking in an

855
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 3: event in Philadelphia Conservative Christians in which he floated this

856
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 3: idea of of having migrants to cross the border illegally

857
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 3: join an Ultimate Fighting League and have them be pitted

858
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 3: against the current Extreme Fighting Champions here, like we're going

859
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 3: to reopen the coliseum somewhere down on the border. He says,

860
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 3: did anyone ever hear Dana White? This is like the

861
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 3: big tough guy who runs the UFC. They checked with

862
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 3: Dana White. He actually had that conversation with Donald Trump.

863
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 12: It was a really interesting you know, when Trump talks,

864
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 12: he is you know, saying, he says what's on his mind.

865
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 12: He mentioned this conversation. Dana White was asked about it

866
00:44:57,640 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 12: just later that night, and he said, well it was

867
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 12: a but yeah he said it. And that's how you

868
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 12: see business leaders doing, members of Congress doing of Oh. Yes,

869
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 12: Trump is saying that, but of course he doesn't mean it.

870
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,720
Speaker 12: But he does a lot of times. He says what he's.

871
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:13,760
Speaker 3: Thinking, This is pretty scary stuff. Yeah. At a post

872
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 3: news conference post fight news conference in Saudi Arabia, White

873
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,919
Speaker 3: confirmed Trump made the comments, but said they were a joke.

874
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 3: I saw everyone crazy, going crazy online, he said, But yeah,

875
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:28,399
Speaker 3: he did say it. We heard from the communications director

876
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 3: from the Trump campaign because a lot of people were

877
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 3: frankly outraged by what they saw as a very racist idea.

878
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 3: These elitists, quote, are the same people who stupidly think

879
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 3: combat sports is human cockfighting, showing their ignorance to the

880
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 3: sweet science of mixed martial arts. Stephen Chung, the comms

881
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 3: director the Trump campaign. That's how we're gonna play this.

882
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:51,439
Speaker 3: Does anyone even remember this the day after?

883
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 12: You know what, in a week like this, probably not.

884
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 12: This will be the thing that we'll flip by and

885
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 12: we'll have you know, much many, many more of these,

886
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:00,919
Speaker 12: you know, in the next five months, you know, until

887
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 12: we hit the election.

888
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 3: Right I guess this isn't going to happen. You a

889
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 3: mixed martial arts fan the Sweet Science.

890
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 12: You know, I will admit to not knowing much about

891
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,360
Speaker 12: mixed martial arts, but I think that all of this

892
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 12: would be a liability for this.

893
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 3: So all right, let me throw a few more logs

894
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 3: on the fire. The late Great Hannibal electer, we've been

895
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 3: hearing a lot about lately. Sharks, right, you're want to

896
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 3: stay in the boat or swim with the sharks. Of course,

897
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 3: the election rigged in twenty twenty, Donald Trump says the

898
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 3: fake news we'll say Trump is rambling. No, it's genius

899
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 3: what I'm doing up here. It's just that nobody understands.

900
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 3: I'm trying to figure out who's right on that.

901
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,240
Speaker 12: You know what's interesting is, you know, he is entertaining

902
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 12: when he tells the story about you know, the electric

903
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 12: battery and the and the boat is sinking and there's

904
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:48,919
Speaker 12: a shark and do you jump out and get eaten

905
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 12: by the shark or do you stay in and get electrocuted.

906
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 12: It's amusing to listen to, of course, but that.

907
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 3: Was twenty sixteen. That's when everybody was laughing.

908
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 12: But even now, you go to these rallies, and he

909
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 12: you know, he does have people showing up, they're excited

910
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 12: to be there, they're laughing, they're cheering, but it plays

911
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:07,800
Speaker 12: a lot differently when he you know, was in Washington

912
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 12: a week or two ago speaking with corporate executives who

913
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 12: were kind of walked out of that being like oh,

914
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,720
Speaker 12: oh that, you know, like do we want that again?

915
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 12: You know, he did talk about you know, he has

916
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:20,400
Speaker 12: gotten better about calibrating his message to his audience. So

917
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 12: when he's in front of you know, Senate Republicans, he

918
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 12: was very subdued of you know, we're going to be unite, Yeah, unified.

919
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 12: He's a little bit more raucous when he was in

920
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 12: front of House Republicans. So he is picking up on that.

921
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 12: But you know, at the at the core, you know,

922
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:33,919
Speaker 12: he's out there doing rallies once or twice a week,

923
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,399
Speaker 12: you know, speaking off the cuff with with all sorts

924
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 12: of you know what a lot of people deem as

925
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 12: sort of crazy stuff.

926
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 3: Well, and it's you know, look, the tip sheets are

927
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 3: starting to compile these when you read in the morning

928
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 3: What's going on in the world, But Biden campaign is

929
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 3: starting to compile these videos now or the sort of

930
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 3: the Lincoln Project, the liberal social media clippers. You're seeing

931
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 3: montages of Donald Trump saying crazy things to compete with

932
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 3: these montages of Joe Biden looking old. Right, this is

933
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 3: kind of where we are now. And I wonder if

934
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 3: anyone even watches that debate Thursday night, or if the

935
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 3: whole thing plays out in clips and memes on social

936
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:11,799
Speaker 3: media the next day.

937
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 12: It's almost certainly the second, you know, a ninety minute debate.

938
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 12: It's like State of the Union, you know that.

939
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 2: It's just it's a long thing.

940
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 12: A lot of people aren't home.

941
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 3: Nobody know, even on sho you and I are the

942
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 3: only people watching this.

943
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 12: We're watching well, and then people may, if they're really interested,

944
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:26,879
Speaker 12: you know, read a story about it, But most people

945
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 12: are going to be sitting there on TikTok on Instagram

946
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 12: and looking at you know, that thirty second bit of

947
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:35,280
Speaker 12: you know, the fly following on Mike Prince's head versus

948
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 12: you know, the any sort of substance of policy discussion,

949
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 12: which I do think will probably be on the lighter

950
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 12: side of enforcing.

951
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 3: The nothing matters kind of world that we're in politics here.

952
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:49,760
Speaker 3: That also, though, gods the candidate to have a viral moment,

953
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 3: right that that could mean we have more crazy than

954
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 3: less in this debate.

955
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 12: It certainly could. And one thing that's that's interesting is

956
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 12: that the Democrats have realized that they are losing the TikTok.

957
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 12: There are just more conservative content creators on TikTok. Trump

958
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 12: content does a lot better on TikTok than Biden content,

959
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 12: So they need to come up with a way to

960
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 12: reach those young voters, which polls show they're you know,

961
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 12: struggling to have this sort of margin.

962
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 3: I didn't know that is it Trump? It's like Joe

963
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 3: Biden's not good on TikTok or this is a republican democratic,

964
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 3: conservative liberal thing.

965
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 12: It's just partially who's on the platform of you know,

966
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 12: which groups are there and who's listening.

967
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 3: TikTok Lean's right.

968
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 12: TikTok Lean's right. In terms of the content creators, who's

969
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 12: on there, it's a little bit harder to tell, but

970
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 12: it certainly skews young, which would think would you know,

971
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 12: you would assume that more left leaning content would do better.

972
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 12: But here's the split we see, and this may explain

973
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 12: a little bit why younger voters are more open to

974
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 12: voting for Trump. Than they were four and eight years ago.

975
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: Maybe this is why you hit up Flora Davison in

976
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 3: the newsroom if you want to know what's going on.

977
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

978
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or

979
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 3: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us

980
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 3: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at

981
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.